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2021-08-02

Come already bros.....here we go. Who's with me.

Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Still far away

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-20

20%discount. Quick.

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2021-07-15

Be warned. Don't say never say.

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2021-07-10

Because its going to the moon. That's why.

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2021-07-05

HODL..... What are your thoughts. Share below.

2021-06-28

$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$ todays the day.

2021-06-28

Time to buy in.

Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>

2021-06-25

Next potential meme stock.

2021-06-21

$25 tonight

2021-06-21

Apes are here. LOL

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2021-06-20

$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$Great stock. Pushing to $7 next week

2021-06-20

Still apes rules

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Watching closely

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2021-06-14

Yes yes

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2021-06-14

My best buy

Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>5 年后的 Palantir 股票：需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-12

So complicated

AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>

2021-06-12

Trader - If you make money short term and sellSpeculator - follow and buy blindlyInvestor - loss money and hodl

Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.

Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-10

Palantir go go go

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Who's with me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804010760","repostId":"1146501234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146501234","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627911092,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146501234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146501234","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(August 2) Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average ","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）股市开盘走高，以积极的态势拉开了 8 月份的序幕。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179 points, or about 0.5%. S&amp;P 500 gained 0.6% and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite added 0.5%. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow sit less than 1% from new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨179点，涨幅约为0.5%。标普500上涨 0.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>复合添加0.5%。标普500和道琼斯指数距离历史新高不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks continued to shake off concerns about the delta variant of Covid, and stocks that would benefit the most from a continued economic recovery led the gains in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续摆脱对新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的担忧，将从持续经济复苏中受益最大的股票在周一盘前交易中领涨。</blockquote></p><p> EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> stock swings to a gain of 2.37% toward 4th-straight gain after July deliveries data.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>7 月份交付数据公布后，股价上涨 2.37%，连续第四次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b07d02e81b388039bda713efd01303f\" tg-width=\"311\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Among individual stocks, Square gained about&nbsp;7%. The payments company agreed to buy Australia’s Afterpay—which allows users to pay for goods in interest-free installments—in an all-stockdeal valued at around $29 billion.</p><p><blockquote>个股中，Square上涨约7%。这家支付公司同意收购澳大利亚的 Afterpay，该公司允许用户以免息分期付款的方式支付商品费用，这是一笔价值约 290 亿美元的全股票交易。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32530bdd06153792ae5e34fcc36920b4\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p><p><blockquote>嘉年华公司股价早盘上涨2.52%。包括摩根士丹利和美国银行在内的主要银行走高。航空股大多走高。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>“瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克-海费勒（Mark Haefele）写道：”我们相信，重新开放和复苏的趋势正在步入正轨，股市将继续上涨。“我们预计，到明年 6 月，标普500将攀升至 4,650 点左右，而目前为 4,395 点。但我们认为，能源、金融和日本股票等周期性市场板块的上涨空间最大。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）股市开盘走高，以积极的态势拉开了 8 月份的序幕。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179 points, or about 0.5%. S&amp;P 500 gained 0.6% and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite added 0.5%. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow sit less than 1% from new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨179点，涨幅约为0.5%。标普500上涨 0.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>复合添加0.5%。标普500和道琼斯指数距离历史新高不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks continued to shake off concerns about the delta variant of Covid, and stocks that would benefit the most from a continued economic recovery led the gains in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续摆脱对新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的担忧，将从持续经济复苏中受益最大的股票在周一盘前交易中领涨。</blockquote></p><p> EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> stock swings to a gain of 2.37% toward 4th-straight gain after July deliveries data.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>7 月份交付数据公布后，股价上涨 2.37%，连续第四次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b07d02e81b388039bda713efd01303f\" tg-width=\"311\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Among individual stocks, Square gained about&nbsp;7%. The payments company agreed to buy Australia’s Afterpay—which allows users to pay for goods in interest-free installments—in an all-stockdeal valued at around $29 billion.</p><p><blockquote>个股中，Square上涨约7%。这家支付公司同意收购澳大利亚的 Afterpay，该公司允许用户以免息分期付款的方式支付商品费用，这是一笔价值约 290 亿美元的全股票交易。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32530bdd06153792ae5e34fcc36920b4\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p><p><blockquote>嘉年华公司股价早盘上涨2.52%。包括摩根士丹利和美国银行在内的主要银行走高。航空股大多走高。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>“瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克-海费勒（Mark Haefele）写道：”我们相信，重新开放和复苏的趋势正在步入正轨，股市将继续上涨。“我们预计，到明年 6 月，标普500将攀升至 4,650 点左右，而目前为 4,395 点。但我们认为，能源、金融和日本股票等周期性市场板块的上涨空间最大。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146501234","content_text":"(August 2) Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179 points, or about 0.5%. S&P 500 gained 0.6% and Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The S&P 500 and the Dow sit less than 1% from new all-time highs.\nStocks continued to shake off concerns about the delta variant of Covid, and stocks that would benefit the most from a continued economic recovery led the gains in premarket trading Monday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading. NIO Inc. stock swings to a gain of 2.37% toward 4th-straight gain after July deliveries data.\n\nAmong individual stocks, Square gained about 7%. The payments company agreed to buy Australia’s Afterpay—which allows users to pay for goods in interest-free installments—in an all-stockdeal valued at around $29 billion.\n\nShares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.\n“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177993836,"gmtCreate":1627174102725,"gmtModify":1633767535529,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still far away","listText":"Still far away","text":"Still far away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177993836","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171413201,"gmtCreate":1626755583503,"gmtModify":1633771320329,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"20%discount.&nbsp; Quick.","listText":"20%discount.&nbsp; Quick.","text":"20%discount. Quick.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171413201","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144297746,"gmtCreate":1626297546585,"gmtModify":1633928235361,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be warned. Don't say never say.","listText":"Be warned. Don't say never say.","text":"Be warned. Don't say never say.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144297746","repostId":"2151551418","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141555886,"gmtCreate":1625882155945,"gmtModify":1633936449463,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Because its going to the moon. That's why.&nbsp;","listText":"Because its going to the moon. That's why.&nbsp;","text":"Because its going to the moon. That's why.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141555886","repostId":"1134141249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154060106,"gmtCreate":1625460855505,"gmtModify":1633940451825,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"HODL..... What are your thoughts.&nbsp; Share below.&nbsp;","listText":"HODL..... What are your thoughts.&nbsp; Share below.&nbsp;","text":"HODL..... What are your thoughts. Share below.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9d733d3cb38cd93d8cefa5445b774ca","width":"1080","height":"3389"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154060106","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127340143,"gmtCreate":1624837352682,"gmtModify":1631884927478,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>&nbsp;todays the day.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>&nbsp;todays the day.&nbsp;","text":"$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$ todays the day.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fc3dde777d0efabfa3e09af6d8b9e89","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127340143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127354361,"gmtCreate":1624837283153,"gmtModify":1631885483052,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy in.&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy in.&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127354361","repostId":"1104974895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104974895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104974895?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104974895","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh","content":"<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104974895","content_text":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.\nOn Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”\nWall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.\nIves sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126588087,"gmtCreate":1624578782549,"gmtModify":1634004198488,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Next potential meme stock.&nbsp;","listText":"Next potential meme stock.&nbsp;","text":"Next potential meme stock.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dd78adf3c9515525a3cdfb4cbacdb","width":"1080","height":"3389"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126588087","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167474031,"gmtCreate":1624283580523,"gmtModify":1634008426923,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$25 tonight&nbsp;","listText":"$25 tonight&nbsp;","text":"$25 tonight","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84936e6e3bef85d04322418aeeada7aa","width":"1080","height":"3290"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167474031","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164445078,"gmtCreate":1624234768294,"gmtModify":1634009237184,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Apes are here. LOL","listText":"Apes are here. LOL","text":"Apes are here. LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164445078","repostId":"1179485759","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164322553,"gmtCreate":1624173280472,"gmtModify":1631885237090,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>Great stock.&nbsp; Pushing to $7 next week","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>Great stock.&nbsp; Pushing to $7 next week","text":"$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$Great stock. Pushing to $7 next week","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feade216c0fdaafd1accfa8dd790f44f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164322553","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164326663,"gmtCreate":1624173216952,"gmtModify":1634009794017,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still apes rules","listText":"Still apes rules","text":"Still apes rules","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164326663","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDL":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162638166,"gmtCreate":1624060586355,"gmtModify":1634023484571,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Watching closely","listText":"Watching closely","text":"Watching closely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162638166","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185944554,"gmtCreate":1623631829178,"gmtModify":1634030996433,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185944554","repostId":"1164339307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185946906,"gmtCreate":1623631662505,"gmtModify":1634030999861,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"My best buy","listText":"My best buy","text":"My best buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185946906","repostId":"1135926549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135926549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623630467,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135926549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>5 年后的 Palantir 股票：需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135926549","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 虽然围绕该股引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为，股价正处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能是一个巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保留在员工的个人账户中。</li><li>我们仍然对 Palantir 持买入态度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像帕兰蒂里安人一样——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与 Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈，而我们确实与他们交谈过，他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要优点是它能够从多个来源收集数据并快速轻松地理解这一切。它不需要大批业务或数据分析师坐在地下室来制作能够被顶楼大办公室的人消化的报告。这意味着，如果正确部署，这些产品将实现分析公司自“提取、转换、加载”时代以来的梦想——降低报告制作的成本并提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个用户交谈过，他认为这个软件没有让他们的业务变得更好。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有和任何人交谈过。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长酝酿期间建立了“黑暗艺术大师”的声誉，部分原因是时代精神，Palantir 是一只非常受关注的股票，似乎引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，它就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这只企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该论坛上有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，只有微软的一半，也许更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。再次强调，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果您拥有 PLTR 股票或正在考虑这样做，我们建议您后退一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们的最爱。当股票崩溃时，我们就放松了；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们会放松。我们认为，Palantir 是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在您阅读我们的分析后，我们可以给您留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪声。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以为你做同样的事情付钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是这种波动性导致了一些股票市场的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，此后该股上涨了 150%，而主要指数的总回报率为 20% 左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和上面的 QQQ ETF 分别作为标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果您从短期角度来看，自 2021 年 2 月高点以来，您可以看到短期持有者更多令人担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始运行至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免的是，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着许多持有者处于亏损状态并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收损失。一如既往，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信 Palantir 股票拥有非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的 SEC 报告需要时间来构建过去的画面。在 3-4 个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度与季度的历史以及增长飞轮的运转方式。首先，收入降至 EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值股是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，我们认为这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir 的估值倍数最近大幅上升，这部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的 PLTR 自身增长率的提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到兴奋 - is stock X<i>真的</i>值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？-但事实上，这并没有科学依据。在成长型股票的牛市中，你的增长越快，你的利润就越高，你对未来增长的知名度就越高，相对于其他此类股票，你的股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付 10 倍 TTM 收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，很多公司的交易价格是 40 倍 TTM 收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为贴现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何一种方式，那么 EBITDA 和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为 DCF 与评估成长型名称的相关性就像公司徽标的颜色一样，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同、证明有能力产生会计和现金利润以及第一季度收入比上年第一季度增长 49% 的企业来说，TTM 收入是 35 倍？在当前的市场环境下，这对我们来说似乎没问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir 是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标几乎没有帮助，展望 12 个月后的目标似乎在 17-30 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能会上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础!）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5 年后 Palantir 股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们采用了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的目标是30%的长期增长率），但超越了他们<i>向上</i>有一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的 EBITDA 利润率，将其上限限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说大约合适的水平 - 20% - 如果 PLTR 将大部分服务工作移交给咨询合作伙伴，那么他们很有可能击败这一目标随着时间的推移，但假设目前终端 EBITDA 利润率为 20%。然后，我们将 EBITDA 转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（= EBITDA - 资本支出 - 营运资本变化）的谨慎转换率分配给以太币，以便大约 20% 的 EBITDA 以某种方式泄漏到以太币中。（这只是保守地模拟现金生成的一种方式。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会以不良应收账款或巨额预付款或其他形式出现在资产负债表上。这是一个建模装置，不是真实的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>问题在于你买入股票和卖出股票之间的走向。如果倍数扩大，这是你所能期望的最大免费资金来源。炼金术与多重膨胀无关。如果他们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表上表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟糕的是，下跌。从基本面的角度来看，这是长期投资者需要问PLTR股票的关键问题。我们认为该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自倍数是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的 5 年展望中，我们假设这些倍数会有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储低语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持不变。谁知道呢。但是你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素加在一起可能会导致价格从今天的 24 美元上涨到 2024 年的 50 美元左右，并在 2025 年上涨到 60 美元左右。现在，与最好的模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内资金翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为关键风险相当简单。第一，该公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越纯的软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来赚钱——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上面那种假设软件商业模式的倍数。第二，这些倍数能维持吗？因此，在我们对业务的现场报道中，一个季度到一个季度，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与 UFCF 利润率（告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力的所有信息），以及增长名称的当前市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与 PLTR 的近期前景特别相关，而这本身也与长期相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的东西，比如“它再也不会看到 40 美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场解冻，但该股仍略低于 25 美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的供求关系。下图显示，在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易过很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面16.8万的粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年上半年的增长那样大幅下跌时，然后回来，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了拿回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了一口气，在以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR后，开始卖出，因为有一次他们看到一个17美元的手柄，说，请不要现在给我发保证金看涨期权，拜托。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想，想想它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为股票图表是谎言，那么它们不是。如果准备充分，他们有时可以告诉你<i>很多</i>关于股票未来的方向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种幼儿园涂色比赛，已经被冲昏头脑了，请耐心等待。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦 PLTR 涨至 30 美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们每股 50-60 美元是可能的，我们的图表显示 30 美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经明白了，要么更有可能（2）作为一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤水平。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你观察该股从低点到高点的上涨过程，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于 (i) 绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些相互联系知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是 (ii) 每个人都根据 Fib 水平进行交易的事实，您可以看到 PLTR 在 2 月份短暂回落至 50% 回撤位（= 损失了上涨期间获得的价值的一半）处找到支撑，然后在 2 月下旬迅速回落至 61.8% 回撤位，并在该水平附近徘徊至 5 月初，然后它真正开始挖掘并几乎达到 78.6% 回撤位。这是一次大幅抛售，无论以何种标准衡量，都太多了，这就是为什么你会在 5 月 11 日看到大幅快速逆转。考虑到一点波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。那些从右到左突出的蓝线和黄线告诉你在任何给定价格下的股票的历史交易量。粗黑色水平线是“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你看，在上升的支撑线和控制线点之间，你可以看到股票上涨并想要突破控制线点。正如你所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时会显示出魔力。</li><li>Palantir 股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨一点，就会有很多人说，呼，双呼，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但我们认为，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，首先，市场正在转向成长型公司，其次，PLTR 的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到交易相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30 美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的无情供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>这意味着该股从 30-40 美元上涨比从 20-30 美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们在这里的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，向成长型名称转暖。股票图表显示，现在再往前走一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，从“弱手”那里多一点待售股票供应，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以 40 美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景范围），我们认为 PLTR 股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然热衷于该股，一大群机构可能会在这个盘整时期买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>5 年后的 Palantir 股票：需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>5 年后的 Palantir 股票：需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 虽然围绕该股引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为，股价正处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能是一个巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保留在员工的个人账户中。</li><li>我们仍然对 Palantir 持买入态度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像帕兰蒂里安人一样——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与 Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈，而我们确实与他们交谈过，他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要优点是它能够从多个来源收集数据并快速轻松地理解这一切。它不需要大批业务或数据分析师坐在地下室来制作能够被顶楼大办公室的人消化的报告。这意味着，如果正确部署，这些产品将实现分析公司自“提取、转换、加载”时代以来的梦想——降低报告制作的成本并提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个用户交谈过，他认为这个软件没有让他们的业务变得更好。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有和任何人交谈过。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长酝酿期间建立了“黑暗艺术大师”的声誉，部分原因是时代精神，Palantir 是一只非常受关注的股票，似乎引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，它就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这只企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该论坛上有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，只有微软的一半，也许更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。再次强调，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果您拥有 PLTR 股票或正在考虑这样做，我们建议您后退一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们的最爱。当股票崩溃时，我们就放松了；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们会放松。我们认为，Palantir 是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在您阅读我们的分析后，我们可以给您留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪声。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以为你做同样的事情付钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是这种波动性导致了一些股票市场的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，此后该股上涨了 150%，而主要指数的总回报率为 20% 左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和上面的 QQQ ETF 分别作为标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果您从短期角度来看，自 2021 年 2 月高点以来，您可以看到短期持有者更多令人担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始运行至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免的是，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着许多持有者处于亏损状态并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收损失。一如既往，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信 Palantir 股票拥有非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的 SEC 报告需要时间来构建过去的画面。在 3-4 个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度与季度的历史以及增长飞轮的运转方式。首先，收入降至 EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值股是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，我们认为这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir 的估值倍数最近大幅上升，这部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的 PLTR 自身增长率的提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到兴奋 - is stock X<i>真的</i>值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？-但事实上，这并没有科学依据。在成长型股票的牛市中，你的增长越快，你的利润就越高，你对未来增长的知名度就越高，相对于其他此类股票，你的股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付 10 倍 TTM 收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，很多公司的交易价格是 40 倍 TTM 收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为贴现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何一种方式，那么 EBITDA 和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为 DCF 与评估成长型名称的相关性就像公司徽标的颜色一样，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同、证明有能力产生会计和现金利润以及第一季度收入比上年第一季度增长 49% 的企业来说，TTM 收入是 35 倍？在当前的市场环境下，这对我们来说似乎没问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir 是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标几乎没有帮助，展望 12 个月后的目标似乎在 17-30 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能会上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础!）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5 年后 Palantir 股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们采用了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的目标是30%的长期增长率），但超越了他们<i>向上</i>有一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的 EBITDA 利润率，将其上限限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说大约合适的水平 - 20% - 如果 PLTR 将大部分服务工作移交给咨询合作伙伴，那么他们很有可能击败这一目标随着时间的推移，但假设目前终端 EBITDA 利润率为 20%。然后，我们将 EBITDA 转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（= EBITDA - 资本支出 - 营运资本变化）的谨慎转换率分配给以太币，以便大约 20% 的 EBITDA 以某种方式泄漏到以太币中。（这只是保守地模拟现金生成的一种方式。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会以不良应收账款或巨额预付款或其他形式出现在资产负债表上。这是一个建模装置，不是真实的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>问题在于你买入股票和卖出股票之间的走向。如果倍数扩大，这是你所能期望的最大免费资金来源。炼金术与多重膨胀无关。如果他们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表上表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟糕的是，下跌。从基本面的角度来看，这是长期投资者需要问PLTR股票的关键问题。我们认为该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自倍数是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的 5 年展望中，我们假设这些倍数会有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储低语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持不变。谁知道呢。但是你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素加在一起可能会导致价格从今天的 24 美元上涨到 2024 年的 50 美元左右，并在 2025 年上涨到 60 美元左右。现在，与最好的模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内资金翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司 SEC 文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为关键风险相当简单。第一，该公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越纯的软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来赚钱——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上面那种假设软件商业模式的倍数。第二，这些倍数能维持吗？因此，在我们对业务的现场报道中，一个季度到一个季度，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与 UFCF 利润率（告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力的所有信息），以及增长名称的当前市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与 PLTR 的近期前景特别相关，而这本身也与长期相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的东西，比如“它再也不会看到 40 美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场解冻，但该股仍略低于 25 美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的供求关系。下图显示，在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易过很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面16.8万的粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年上半年的增长那样大幅下跌时，然后回来，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了拿回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了一口气，在以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR后，开始卖出，因为有一次他们看到一个17美元的手柄，说，请不要现在给我发保证金看涨期权，拜托。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想，想想它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为股票图表是谎言，那么它们不是。如果准备充分，他们有时可以告诉你<i>很多</i>关于股票未来的方向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种幼儿园涂色比赛，已经被冲昏头脑了，请耐心等待。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦 PLTR 涨至 30 美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们每股 50-60 美元是可能的，我们的图表显示 30 美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经明白了，要么更有可能（2）作为一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤水平。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你观察该股从低点到高点的上涨过程，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于 (i) 绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些相互联系知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是 (ii) 每个人都根据 Fib 水平进行交易的事实，您可以看到 PLTR 在 2 月份短暂回落至 50% 回撤位（= 损失了上涨期间获得的价值的一半）处找到支撑，然后在 2 月下旬迅速回落至 61.8% 回撤位，并在该水平附近徘徊至 5 月初，然后它真正开始挖掘并几乎达到 78.6% 回撤位。这是一次大幅抛售，无论以何种标准衡量，都太多了，这就是为什么你会在 5 月 11 日看到大幅快速逆转。考虑到一点波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。那些从右到左突出的蓝线和黄线告诉你在任何给定价格下的股票的历史交易量。粗黑色水平线是“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你看，在上升的支撑线和控制线点之间，你可以看到股票上涨并想要突破控制线点。正如你所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时会显示出魔力。</li><li>Palantir 股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨一点，就会有很多人说，呼，双呼，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但我们认为，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，首先，市场正在转向成长型公司，其次，PLTR 的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到交易相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30 美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的无情供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>这意味着该股从 30-40 美元上涨比从 20-30 美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们在这里的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，向成长型名称转暖。股票图表显示，现在再往前走一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，从“弱手”那里多一点待售股票供应，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以 40 美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景范围），我们认为 PLTR 股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然热衷于该股，一大群机构可能会在这个盘整时期买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186585620,"gmtCreate":1623511087760,"gmtModify":1634032238924,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So complicated","listText":"So complicated","text":"So complicated","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186585620","repostId":"1104635261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104635261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104635261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104635261","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Enter","content":"<p>  <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>  A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>Mudrick Capital 的亏损显示了投资模因股票的风险。</b>多管齐下的赌注 onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39% 本月对 Mudrick Capital Management LP 进行了回旋镖，Mudrick Capital Management LP 是最新一家成为日内交易者受害者的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，穆德里克的旗舰基金在短短几天内损失了约 10%，原因是 AMC 股价的飙升意外引发了该基金作为复杂交易策略一部分持有的衍生品价值的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，一群在社交媒体上组织的交易员帮助 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 和其他股票的价格在 1 月份飙升，远远超出了许多投资者对基本面的看法。</blockquote></p><p> The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>这一事态发展促使许多对冲基金削减了对模因股票的投资。穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）的亏损凸显了保留对此类公司的大量投资风险有多大--甚至会对一家与个人投资者的看涨情绪基本同步的对冲基金经理产生适得其反的效果。</blockquote></p><p> Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司创始人杰森-穆德里克（Jason Mudrick）几个月来一直在交易 AMC 的股票、期权和债券，这激发了个人投资者对这家连锁影院的热情。但他也出售了看涨期权期权，这是一种衍生品合约，旨在对冲该基金对 AMC 的风险敞口。这些知情人士说，这些衍生品合约赋予买家未来以约 40 美元的价格从穆德里克手中购买 AMC 股票的权利，但最近 Reddit 推动的购买活动卷土重来，将 AMC 的股价推向了新纪录，这些衍生品合约却膨胀成了负债。</blockquote></p><p> As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p><p><blockquote>作为更广泛的 AMC 战略的一部分，Mudrick Capital 的高管正在与 AMC 进行谈判，计划于 5 月下旬从该公司购买更多股票。 6 月 1 日，AMC 披露，Mudrick Capital 已同意以每股 27.12 美元的价格直接从该公司购买 2.305 亿美元的新股，高于当时的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克立即出售了这只股票获利，彭博新闻社报道了这一快速转变，并在社交媒体上引发了强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> “Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 1 日，Reddit 华尔街投注论坛上的一篇帖子写道：“穆德里克没有在背后捅AMC一刀.他们搬起石头砸了自己的脚。”当时的其他帖子将穆德里克称为 “失败者”、“人渣袋”和 “一大堆没有未来的 S-T”。论坛成员互相敦促买入并持有。</blockquote></p><p> Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p><p><blockquote>在穆德里克内部，随着 AMC 反弹势头的增强，高管们越来越担心。6 月 1 日晚，该公司的风险委员会在股价收于 32 美元后召开会议，决定在第二天退出所有债务和衍生品头寸。</blockquote></p><p> It was a day too late.</p><p><blockquote>已经晚了一天。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 2 日，AMC 的股价在几个小时内就突破了 40 美元，盘中最高触及 72.62 美元。看涨期权期权价格在穆德里克资本推动的交易狂潮中飙升，到本周末，获胜的交易变成了破产，该基金损失了数亿美元。Mudrick Capital 出售的债务回报率约为 5%，但在考虑其期权交易后，该基金在 AMC 上净亏损约 5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位人士说，穆德里克先生的基金今年仍上涨了约 12%。与此同时，年初购买 AMC 股票并持有的投资者上涨了约 2000%。</blockquote></p><p> The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体推动的日内交易者的影响已成为今年市场的一个决定性发展，导致顶级对冲基金损失数十亿美元，引发了国会听证会，并引起了美国证券交易委员会的审查。现在，越来越多的对冲基金在社交媒体上追踪个人投资者的情绪，并更加关注市值较小的公司，这些公司的股价可能更容易受到个人投资者热情的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克专门从事不良债务投资，经常以高利率贷款给陷入困境的公司，或者在破产法庭上将现有债务换成股权。穆德里克管理着全公司约 35 亿美元的投资，并持有电子烟制造商 NJOY Holdings Inc. 和卫星通信公司 GlobalStarInc. 的大量非流动性股份。根据汇丰另类投资集团的数据，该旗舰基金报告称，从2018年到2020年，年回报率约为17%。</blockquote></p><p> But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p><p><blockquote>但陷入困境的投资机会让 findas 变得更加困难。美联储提供的宽松资金甚至让陷入困境的公司也可以进入债务市场。穆德里克先生还探索了其他策略，推出了几家特殊目的收购公司，就 AMC 而言，最终通过大宗交易购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克最初将他的典型策略应用于 AMC，以每美元 20 美分的价格购买债券，在 12 月份借给该公司 1 亿美元，并将部分债券交换为新股。在 Covid-19 大流行封锁期间，本已面临压力的影院上座率几乎完全消失，AMC 股价低至 2 美元。他推断，随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，消费者今年将重新对大屏幕娱乐产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬，日内交易者首次涌入 AMC，在社交媒体上互相敦促#SaveAMC，并短暂地将股价提升至 20 美元左右。AMC 股权价值的上升推高了债券价格--穆德里克资本持有的一只债券在一周内翻了一番--很快就回报了穆德里克先生的乐观情绪。AMC 利用其飙升的股价，在 1 月下旬筹集了近 10 亿美元的新融资，使其能够避免此前预期的破产申请。</blockquote></p><p> Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p><p><blockquote>大约在那个时候，穆德里克出售了 AMC 股票的看涨期权期权，产生了即时收入，以抵消连锁影院确实面临问题时的潜在损失。这些衍生品让买家可以选择以约 40 美元的价格从 Mudrick Capital 购买 AMC 股票——当股价低于 10 美元时，这似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生与 AMC 首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 就提供额外资金事宜保持联系，导致他最近购买了股票。但一位知情人士表示，他将衍生品合约作为保险单保留。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>  A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>Mudrick Capital 的亏损显示了投资模因股票的风险。</b>多管齐下的赌注 onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39% 本月对 Mudrick Capital Management LP 进行了回旋镖，Mudrick Capital Management LP 是最新一家成为日内交易者受害者的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，穆德里克的旗舰基金在短短几天内损失了约 10%，原因是 AMC 股价的飙升意外引发了该基金作为复杂交易策略一部分持有的衍生品价值的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，一群在社交媒体上组织的交易员帮助 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 和其他股票的价格在 1 月份飙升，远远超出了许多投资者对基本面的看法。</blockquote></p><p> The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>这一事态发展促使许多对冲基金削减了对模因股票的投资。穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）的亏损凸显了保留对此类公司的大量投资风险有多大--甚至会对一家与个人投资者的看涨情绪基本同步的对冲基金经理产生适得其反的效果。</blockquote></p><p> Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司创始人杰森-穆德里克（Jason Mudrick）几个月来一直在交易 AMC 的股票、期权和债券，这激发了个人投资者对这家连锁影院的热情。但他也出售了看涨期权期权，这是一种衍生品合约，旨在对冲该基金对 AMC 的风险敞口。这些知情人士说，这些衍生品合约赋予买家未来以约 40 美元的价格从穆德里克手中购买 AMC 股票的权利，但最近 Reddit 推动的购买活动卷土重来，将 AMC 的股价推向了新纪录，这些衍生品合约却膨胀成了负债。</blockquote></p><p> As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p><p><blockquote>作为更广泛的 AMC 战略的一部分，Mudrick Capital 的高管正在与 AMC 进行谈判，计划于 5 月下旬从该公司购买更多股票。 6 月 1 日，AMC 披露，Mudrick Capital 已同意以每股 27.12 美元的价格直接从该公司购买 2.305 亿美元的新股，高于当时的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克立即出售了这只股票获利，彭博新闻社报道了这一快速转变，并在社交媒体上引发了强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> “Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 1 日，Reddit 华尔街投注论坛上的一篇帖子写道：“穆德里克没有在背后捅AMC一刀.他们搬起石头砸了自己的脚。”当时的其他帖子将穆德里克称为 “失败者”、“人渣袋”和 “一大堆没有未来的 S-T”。论坛成员互相敦促买入并持有。</blockquote></p><p> Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p><p><blockquote>在穆德里克内部，随着 AMC 反弹势头的增强，高管们越来越担心。6 月 1 日晚，该公司的风险委员会在股价收于 32 美元后召开会议，决定在第二天退出所有债务和衍生品头寸。</blockquote></p><p> It was a day too late.</p><p><blockquote>已经晚了一天。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 2 日，AMC 的股价在几个小时内就突破了 40 美元，盘中最高触及 72.62 美元。看涨期权期权价格在穆德里克资本推动的交易狂潮中飙升，到本周末，获胜的交易变成了破产，该基金损失了数亿美元。Mudrick Capital 出售的债务回报率约为 5%，但在考虑其期权交易后，该基金在 AMC 上净亏损约 5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位人士说，穆德里克先生的基金今年仍上涨了约 12%。与此同时，年初购买 AMC 股票并持有的投资者上涨了约 2000%。</blockquote></p><p> The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体推动的日内交易者的影响已成为今年市场的一个决定性发展，导致顶级对冲基金损失数十亿美元，引发了国会听证会，并引起了美国证券交易委员会的审查。现在，越来越多的对冲基金在社交媒体上追踪个人投资者的情绪，并更加关注市值较小的公司，这些公司的股价可能更容易受到个人投资者热情的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克专门从事不良债务投资，经常以高利率贷款给陷入困境的公司，或者在破产法庭上将现有债务换成股权。穆德里克管理着全公司约 35 亿美元的投资，并持有电子烟制造商 NJOY Holdings Inc. 和卫星通信公司 GlobalStarInc. 的大量非流动性股份。根据汇丰另类投资集团的数据，该旗舰基金报告称，从2018年到2020年，年回报率约为17%。</blockquote></p><p> But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p><p><blockquote>但陷入困境的投资机会让 findas 变得更加困难。美联储提供的宽松资金甚至让陷入困境的公司也可以进入债务市场。穆德里克先生还探索了其他策略，推出了几家特殊目的收购公司，就 AMC 而言，最终通过大宗交易购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克最初将他的典型策略应用于 AMC，以每美元 20 美分的价格购买债券，在 12 月份借给该公司 1 亿美元，并将部分债券交换为新股。在 Covid-19 大流行封锁期间，本已面临压力的影院上座率几乎完全消失，AMC 股价低至 2 美元。他推断，随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，消费者今年将重新对大屏幕娱乐产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬，日内交易者首次涌入 AMC，在社交媒体上互相敦促#SaveAMC，并短暂地将股价提升至 20 美元左右。AMC 股权价值的上升推高了债券价格--穆德里克资本持有的一只债券在一周内翻了一番--很快就回报了穆德里克先生的乐观情绪。AMC 利用其飙升的股价，在 1 月下旬筹集了近 10 亿美元的新融资，使其能够避免此前预期的破产申请。</blockquote></p><p> Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p><p><blockquote>大约在那个时候，穆德里克出售了 AMC 股票的看涨期权期权，产生了即时收入，以抵消连锁影院确实面临问题时的潜在损失。这些衍生品让买家可以选择以约 40 美元的价格从 Mudrick Capital 购买 AMC 股票——当股价低于 10 美元时，这似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生与 AMC 首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 就提供额外资金事宜保持联系，导致他最近购买了股票。但一位知情人士表示，他将衍生品合约作为保险单保留。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104635261","content_text":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.\nMudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.\nThe development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.\nJason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.\nAs part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.\nMudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.\n“Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.\nInside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.\nIt was a day too late.\nAMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.\nMr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.\nThe impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.\nMr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.\nBut distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.\nMr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.\nDay traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.\nAround that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.\nMr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186582031,"gmtCreate":1623510977723,"gmtModify":1634032240104,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Trader -&nbsp;If you make money short term and sellSpeculator - follow and buy blindlyInvestor - loss money and hodl","listText":"Trader -&nbsp;If you make money short term and sellSpeculator - follow and buy blindlyInvestor - loss money and hodl","text":"Trader - If you make money short term and sellSpeculator - follow and buy blindlyInvestor - loss money and hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186582031","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽的风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》对金融最基本的区别之一的看法是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仅仅因为一只股票上涨了很多，而没有做任何研究就买入它，那么你就不是《华尔街日报》及其编辑们奇怪地坚持称你为 “投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，那你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产时，因为你有一只雄鸡只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，而其他人似乎也在购买，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的人。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 等模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在押注或押注股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币是如何运作的，以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依靠外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否愿意支付更多，而不管基本面价值如何。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一词源于拉丁语 “investire ”，意为打扮自己、包围或包裹自己。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或材质的情况下穿衣服。同样，你也不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，《华尔街日报》及其编辑们长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人都称为 “投资者”。1962 年 7 月 12 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明-格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年 6 月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是 “许多小投资者押注股价进一步下跌，卖空奇数手 ”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “根据'投资'的什么定义，我们能把'投资者'这个名字称为'投资'呢？”（做空奇数手意味着借入并卖出少于 100 股股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“格雷厄姆问道：”如果这些人是投资者，“我们应该如何定义'投机'和'投机者'？难道目前无法区分投资和投机，不仅会对个人造成严重伤害，还会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗--就像 20 世纪 20 年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个势利小人，他认为市场应该是富人的专属游乐场。他写《聪明的投资者》的明确目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股票市场。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书中写道：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法，也不不道德，（对大多数人来说）也不会中饱私囊。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三个危险： “(1) 当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；(2) 当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地进行投机而不是作为消遣；(3) 在投机中冒的风险超过了你承受的损失”。</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像一张彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多人都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为自己在投机时就是在投资，那么即使是短暂的成功，你也会把技巧归因于技巧，尽管运气是最有可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法在几分钟前专注于未来。接下来你就会知道，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，称交易者和投机者为 “投资者 ”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失。我衷心希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑们最终能停止使用 “投资者 ”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯-福雷尔（Charles Forelle）在回应我的投诉时说：”'投资者'在英语中有着悠久的历史，它是一个包罗万象的术语，指的是那些投入资金并期望获得回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少。“至少可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，'投资'甚至被用来形容赌马--这种活动与基本面分析的脱节肯定不亚于购买狗狗币”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是觉得你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场 “投资 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为 “投资者 ”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力手段之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的 Instagram 帖子中，一位名叫拉娜-罗德斯（Lana Rhoades）的前色情明星穿着比基尼摆姿势，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据 IMDb.com 报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在她的帖子中宣布，她将推广一种名为 Pawgcoin 的加密货币，该帖子获得了近 180 万人的 “点赞 ”。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为 “那些向发达的后裔致敬的人”准备的。(据我可靠消息，PAWG 代表肥屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站 Poocoin.io 称，自 Rhoades 女士 6 月初开始推广 PAWGcoin 以来，PAWGcoin 已上涨约 900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在推特上写道 “我每天早上也读《华尔街日报》 ”，但记者未能联系到她置评。PAWGcoin 的网站鼓励访问者 “立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗兹女士的 Instagram 帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽的风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》对金融最基本的区别之一的看法是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仅仅因为一只股票上涨了很多，而没有做任何研究就买入它，那么你就不是《华尔街日报》及其编辑们奇怪地坚持称你为 “投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，那你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产时，因为你有一只雄鸡只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，而其他人似乎也在购买，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的人。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 等模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在押注或押注股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币是如何运作的，以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依靠外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否愿意支付更多，而不管基本面价值如何。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一词源于拉丁语 “investire ”，意为打扮自己、包围或包裹自己。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或材质的情况下穿衣服。同样，你也不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，《华尔街日报》及其编辑们长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人都称为 “投资者”。1962 年 7 月 12 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明-格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年 6 月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是 “许多小投资者押注股价进一步下跌，卖空奇数手 ”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “根据'投资'的什么定义，我们能把'投资者'这个名字称为'投资'呢？”（做空奇数手意味着借入并卖出少于 100 股股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“格雷厄姆问道：”如果这些人是投资者，“我们应该如何定义'投机'和'投机者'？难道目前无法区分投资和投机，不仅会对个人造成严重伤害，还会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗--就像 20 世纪 20 年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个势利小人，他认为市场应该是富人的专属游乐场。他写《聪明的投资者》的明确目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股票市场。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书中写道：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法，也不不道德，（对大多数人来说）也不会中饱私囊。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三个危险： “(1) 当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；(2) 当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地进行投机而不是作为消遣；(3) 在投机中冒的风险超过了你承受的损失”。</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像一张彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多人都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为自己在投机时就是在投资，那么即使是短暂的成功，你也会把技巧归因于技巧，尽管运气是最有可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法在几分钟前专注于未来。接下来你就会知道，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，称交易者和投机者为 “投资者 ”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失。我衷心希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑们最终能停止使用 “投资者 ”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯-福雷尔（Charles Forelle）在回应我的投诉时说：”'投资者'在英语中有着悠久的历史，它是一个包罗万象的术语，指的是那些投入资金并期望获得回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少。“至少可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，'投资'甚至被用来形容赌马--这种活动与基本面分析的脱节肯定不亚于购买狗狗币”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是觉得你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场 “投资 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为 “投资者 ”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力手段之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的 Instagram 帖子中，一位名叫拉娜-罗德斯（Lana Rhoades）的前色情明星穿着比基尼摆姿势，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据 IMDb.com 报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在她的帖子中宣布，她将推广一种名为 Pawgcoin 的加密货币，该帖子获得了近 180 万人的 “点赞 ”。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为 “那些向发达的后裔致敬的人”准备的。(据我可靠消息，PAWG 代表肥屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站 Poocoin.io 称，自 Rhoades 女士 6 月初开始推广 PAWGcoin 以来，PAWGcoin 已上涨约 900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在推特上写道 “我每天早上也读《华尔街日报》 ”，但记者未能联系到她置评。PAWGcoin 的网站鼓励访问者 “立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗兹女士的 Instagram 帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181050155,"gmtCreate":1623368374277,"gmtModify":1634034209416,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.&nbsp;","listText":"Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.&nbsp;","text":"Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181050155","repostId":"1109265126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109265126","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623335677,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109265126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109265126","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 10) Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.\nGameStop fell about 10%, Baird says GameSt","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;10)&nbsp;Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f035fcec2fe0d5b172ba455b6163d8c\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"404\">GameStop&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%,&nbsp;Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌约 10%，Baird 表示 GameStop 的扭亏为盈计划仍然是个谜，预计股价将下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Corp&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;9%,&nbsp;Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，Clover Health Corp 下跌近 9%，在 Reddit 交易员帮助导致严重做空的保险股短缺后，投资者应该远离 Clover Health。</blockquote></p><p> The stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收于每股16.92美元，6月份上涨超过120%，短暂交易价格高于28美元。该公司在亿万富翁 Chamath Palihapitiya 的帮助下，通过一项特殊目的收购公司交易上市，在过去一周成为社交媒体交易员的最爱。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师凯文-菲施贝克（Kevin Fischbeck）将该股评级从中性下调至表现不佳，并在周四给客户的一份报告中表示，基本面无法支撑股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-10 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;10)&nbsp;Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f035fcec2fe0d5b172ba455b6163d8c\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"404\">GameStop&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%,&nbsp;Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌约 10%，Baird 表示 GameStop 的扭亏为盈计划仍然是个谜，预计股价将下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Corp&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;9%,&nbsp;Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，Clover Health Corp 下跌近 9%，在 Reddit 交易员帮助导致严重做空的保险股短缺后，投资者应该远离 Clover Health。</blockquote></p><p> The stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收于每股16.92美元，6月份上涨超过120%，短暂交易价格高于28美元。该公司在亿万富翁 Chamath Palihapitiya 的帮助下，通过一项特殊目的收购公司交易上市，在过去一周成为社交媒体交易员的最爱。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师凯文-菲施贝克（Kevin Fischbeck）将该股评级从中性下调至表现不佳，并在周四给客户的一份报告中表示，基本面无法支撑股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109265126","content_text":"(June 10) Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.\nGameStop fell about 10%, Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.\nClover Health Corp fell nearly 9%, Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.\nThe stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.\nBank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"GME":0.9,"WISH":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189567516,"gmtCreate":1623282324735,"gmtModify":1634035080008,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Palantir go go go","listText":"Palantir go go go","text":"Palantir go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189567516","repostId":"1154764167","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":127354361,"gmtCreate":1624837283153,"gmtModify":1631885483052,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy in.&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy in.&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127354361","repostId":"1104974895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104974895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104974895?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104974895","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh","content":"<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104974895","content_text":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.\nOn Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”\nWall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.\nIves sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177993836,"gmtCreate":1627174102725,"gmtModify":1633767535529,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still far away","listText":"Still far away","text":"Still far away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177993836","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804010760,"gmtCreate":1627911761850,"gmtModify":1633755364260,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come already bros.....here we go.&nbsp; Who's with me.","listText":"Come already bros.....here we go.&nbsp; Who's with me.","text":"Come already bros.....here we go. Who's with me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804010760","repostId":"1146501234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146501234","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627911092,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146501234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146501234","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(August 2) Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average ","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）股市开盘走高，以积极的态势拉开了 8 月份的序幕。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179 points, or about 0.5%. S&amp;P 500 gained 0.6% and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite added 0.5%. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow sit less than 1% from new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨179点，涨幅约为0.5%。标普500上涨 0.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>复合添加0.5%。标普500和道琼斯指数距离历史新高不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks continued to shake off concerns about the delta variant of Covid, and stocks that would benefit the most from a continued economic recovery led the gains in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续摆脱对新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的担忧，将从持续经济复苏中受益最大的股票在周一盘前交易中领涨。</blockquote></p><p> EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> stock swings to a gain of 2.37% toward 4th-straight gain after July deliveries data.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>7 月份交付数据公布后，股价上涨 2.37%，连续第四次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b07d02e81b388039bda713efd01303f\" tg-width=\"311\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Among individual stocks, Square gained about&nbsp;7%. The payments company agreed to buy Australia’s Afterpay—which allows users to pay for goods in interest-free installments—in an all-stockdeal valued at around $29 billion.</p><p><blockquote>个股中，Square上涨约7%。这家支付公司同意收购澳大利亚的 Afterpay，该公司允许用户以免息分期付款的方式支付商品费用，这是一笔价值约 290 亿美元的全股票交易。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32530bdd06153792ae5e34fcc36920b4\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p><p><blockquote>嘉年华公司股价早盘上涨2.52%。包括摩根士丹利和美国银行在内的主要银行走高。航空股大多走高。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>“瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克-海费勒（Mark Haefele）写道：”我们相信，重新开放和复苏的趋势正在步入正轨，股市将继续上涨。“我们预计，到明年 6 月，标普500将攀升至 4,650 点左右，而目前为 4,395 点。但我们认为，能源、金融和日本股票等周期性市场板块的上涨空间最大。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open higher to kick off August on positive note<blockquote>股市开盘走高，八月份开局积极</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）股市开盘走高，以积极的态势拉开了 8 月份的序幕。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179 points, or about 0.5%. S&amp;P 500 gained 0.6% and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite added 0.5%. The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow sit less than 1% from new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨179点，涨幅约为0.5%。标普500上涨 0.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>复合添加0.5%。标普500和道琼斯指数距离历史新高不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks continued to shake off concerns about the delta variant of Covid, and stocks that would benefit the most from a continued economic recovery led the gains in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续摆脱对新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的担忧，将从持续经济复苏中受益最大的股票在周一盘前交易中领涨。</blockquote></p><p> EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> stock swings to a gain of 2.37% toward 4th-straight gain after July deliveries data.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>7 月份交付数据公布后，股价上涨 2.37%，连续第四次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b07d02e81b388039bda713efd01303f\" tg-width=\"311\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Among individual stocks, Square gained about&nbsp;7%. The payments company agreed to buy Australia’s Afterpay—which allows users to pay for goods in interest-free installments—in an all-stockdeal valued at around $29 billion.</p><p><blockquote>个股中，Square上涨约7%。这家支付公司同意收购澳大利亚的 Afterpay，该公司允许用户以免息分期付款的方式支付商品费用，这是一笔价值约 290 亿美元的全股票交易。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32530bdd06153792ae5e34fcc36920b4\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.</p><p><blockquote>嘉年华公司股价早盘上涨2.52%。包括摩根士丹利和美国银行在内的主要银行走高。航空股大多走高。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&amp;P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>“瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克-海费勒（Mark Haefele）写道：”我们相信，重新开放和复苏的趋势正在步入正轨，股市将继续上涨。“我们预计，到明年 6 月，标普500将攀升至 4,650 点左右，而目前为 4,395 点。但我们认为，能源、金融和日本股票等周期性市场板块的上涨空间最大。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1f8013a64fda7879ad10c4e7559aec\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146501234","content_text":"(August 2) Stocks open higher to kick off August on positive note.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179 points, or about 0.5%. S&P 500 gained 0.6% and Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The S&P 500 and the Dow sit less than 1% from new all-time highs.\nStocks continued to shake off concerns about the delta variant of Covid, and stocks that would benefit the most from a continued economic recovery led the gains in premarket trading Monday.\nEV stocks rose in morning trading. NIO Inc. stock swings to a gain of 2.37% toward 4th-straight gain after July deliveries data.\n\nAmong individual stocks, Square gained about 7%. The payments company agreed to buy Australia’s Afterpay—which allows users to pay for goods in interest-free installments—in an all-stockdeal valued at around $29 billion.\n\nShares of Carnival Corp. were up 2.52% in early trading. Major banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were higher. Airline shares were mostly higher.\n“We believe the reopening and recovery trend is on track and continue to see upside for equities,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of global wealth management at UBS. “We expect the S&P 500 to climb to around 4,650 by June next year, versus 4,395 at present. But we see the greatest upside for cyclical parts of the market, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192524739,"gmtCreate":1621217394121,"gmtModify":1634193312405,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How long is long?&nbsp;","listText":"How long is long?&nbsp;","text":"How long is long?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192524739","repostId":"2135998171","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141555886,"gmtCreate":1625882155945,"gmtModify":1633936449463,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Because its going to the moon. That's why.&nbsp;","listText":"Because its going to the moon. That's why.&nbsp;","text":"Because its going to the moon. That's why.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141555886","repostId":"1134141249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164322553,"gmtCreate":1624173280472,"gmtModify":1631885237090,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>Great stock.&nbsp; Pushing to $7 next week","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>Great stock.&nbsp; Pushing to $7 next week","text":"$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$Great stock. Pushing to $7 next week","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feade216c0fdaafd1accfa8dd790f44f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164322553","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138055678,"gmtCreate":1621902457694,"gmtModify":1634185697096,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes, coming back.&nbsp;","listText":"Yes, coming back.&nbsp;","text":"Yes, coming back.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138055678","repostId":"2138159407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192398076,"gmtCreate":1621142760795,"gmtModify":1634193758819,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bank interest also has dropped.&nbsp;","listText":"Bank interest also has dropped.&nbsp;","text":"Bank interest also has dropped.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192398076","repostId":"2135069756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171413201,"gmtCreate":1626755583503,"gmtModify":1633771320329,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"20%discount.&nbsp; Quick.","listText":"20%discount.&nbsp; Quick.","text":"20%discount. Quick.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171413201","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181050155,"gmtCreate":1623368374277,"gmtModify":1634034209416,"author":{"id":"3581674964426661","authorId":"3581674964426661","name":"cleaver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132a421ff1682c2f899de7c532dde8ba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581674964426661","idStr":"3581674964426661"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.&nbsp;","listText":"Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.&nbsp;","text":"Meme gone. A lot of retail investors like me is hurt.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181050155","repostId":"1109265126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109265126","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623335677,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109265126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109265126","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 10) Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.\nGameStop fell about 10%, Baird says GameSt","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;10)&nbsp;Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f035fcec2fe0d5b172ba455b6163d8c\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"404\">GameStop&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%,&nbsp;Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌约 10%，Baird 表示 GameStop 的扭亏为盈计划仍然是个谜，预计股价将下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Corp&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;9%,&nbsp;Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，Clover Health Corp 下跌近 9%，在 Reddit 交易员帮助导致严重做空的保险股短缺后，投资者应该远离 Clover Health。</blockquote></p><p> The stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收于每股16.92美元，6月份上涨超过120%，短暂交易价格高于28美元。该公司在亿万富翁 Chamath Palihapitiya 的帮助下，通过一项特殊目的收购公司交易上市，在过去一周成为社交媒体交易员的最爱。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师凯文-菲施贝克（Kevin Fischbeck）将该股评级从中性下调至表现不佳，并在周四给客户的一份报告中表示，基本面无法支撑股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-10 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;10)&nbsp;Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f035fcec2fe0d5b172ba455b6163d8c\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"404\">GameStop&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%,&nbsp;Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价下跌约 10%，Baird 表示 GameStop 的扭亏为盈计划仍然是个谜，预计股价将下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Corp&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;9%,&nbsp;Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，Clover Health Corp 下跌近 9%，在 Reddit 交易员帮助导致严重做空的保险股短缺后，投资者应该远离 Clover Health。</blockquote></p><p> The stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收于每股16.92美元，6月份上涨超过120%，短暂交易价格高于28美元。该公司在亿万富翁 Chamath Palihapitiya 的帮助下，通过一项特殊目的收购公司交易上市，在过去一周成为社交媒体交易员的最爱。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师凯文-菲施贝克（Kevin Fischbeck）将该股评级从中性下调至表现不佳，并在周四给客户的一份报告中表示，基本面无法支撑股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109265126","content_text":"(June 10) Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.\nGameStop fell about 10%, Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.\nClover Health Corp fell nearly 9%, Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.\nThe stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.\nBank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"GME":0.9,"WISH":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}