tiototo的个人主页 - 老虎社区

tiototo

tiototo

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

34关注

5粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-07-23

Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-05

Prepare for a sell down on tuesday [生气]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-28

Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-17

Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead

Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Agree..

The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Seems good for lomg terms investors [财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-05

Huat!

Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-08

I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-22

Why they left traces in the chat msg???

Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-08

But it dropped 7% yesterday..

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

Online betting is the way to go lol

This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote>

2021-06-17

Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581681532128922","uuid":"3581681532128922","gmtCreate":1618589016242,"gmtModify":1623905873632,"name":"tiototo","pinyin":"tiototo","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":34,"tweetSize":15,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.94%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.66%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":839481001,"gmtCreate":1629173680603,"gmtModify":1631883944418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","listText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","text":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839481001","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899016355,"gmtCreate":1628141903777,"gmtModify":1631889458340,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat!","listText":"Huat!","text":"Huat!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899016355","repostId":"1183934326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183934326","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628140836,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183934326?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 13:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183934326","media":"Markets Insider","summary":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 1","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood联合创始人白菊·巴特（左）和弗拉德·特涅夫。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO后股价上涨高达126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果Robinhood股价到2025年收于101.50美元以上，联合创始人Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将获得1380万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比奖励价低19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司的S-1文件，本周Robinhood股价在IPO后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果Robinhood的股价到2025年长期收于101.50美元以上，Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将各获得1380万股股票。Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比Tenev和Bhatt解锁股票奖励所需的价格低19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50美元的价格障碍基于Robinhood股价在连续60天交易期间每天的日成交量加权平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood上周在首次公开募股中遭遇挫折，股价下跌了12%，但此后该股出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，收复了全部甚至部分跌幅。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三连续两天上涨了126%。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>1380万份限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但奖励条款在5月份进行了修订，将奖励截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果IPO时股价在30.45美元至50.75美元之间，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将其IPO定价为每股38美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果Tenev和Bhatt的股价在本十年末最终达到每股300美元，他们还将获得数百万股Robinhood股票。如果股价达到一些价格障碍，联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev的2200万股和Bhatt的1300万股，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev和Bhatt的股权奖励价值可能分别高达108亿美元和81亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一笔股权奖励授予后没有出售其累积股权奖励的一股。每股300美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood在文件中表示：“2021年基于市场的RSU旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，使其超过适用于2019年基于市场的RSU的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在COVID-19大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务呈爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的大幅上涨也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 13:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood联合创始人白菊·巴特（左）和弗拉德·特涅夫。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO后股价上涨高达126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果Robinhood股价到2025年收于101.50美元以上，联合创始人Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将获得1380万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比奖励价低19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司的S-1文件，本周Robinhood股价在IPO后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果Robinhood的股价到2025年长期收于101.50美元以上，Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将各获得1380万股股票。Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比Tenev和Bhatt解锁股票奖励所需的价格低19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50美元的价格障碍基于Robinhood股价在连续60天交易期间每天的日成交量加权平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood上周在首次公开募股中遭遇挫折，股价下跌了12%，但此后该股出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，收复了全部甚至部分跌幅。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三连续两天上涨了126%。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>1380万份限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但奖励条款在5月份进行了修订，将奖励截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果IPO时股价在30.45美元至50.75美元之间，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将其IPO定价为每股38美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果Tenev和Bhatt的股价在本十年末最终达到每股300美元，他们还将获得数百万股Robinhood股票。如果股价达到一些价格障碍，联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev的2200万股和Bhatt的1300万股，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev和Bhatt的股权奖励价值可能分别高达108亿美元和81亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一笔股权奖励授予后没有出售其累积股权奖励的一股。每股300美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood在文件中表示：“2021年基于市场的RSU旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，使其超过适用于2019年基于市场的RSU的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在COVID-19大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务呈爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的大幅上涨也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8\">Markets Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183934326","content_text":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.\nCo-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.\nShares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.\n\nA wild post-IPO rally in shares of Robinhood this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the company's S-1 filing.\nVlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to each receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.\nThe $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.\nRobinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a two-day rally of as much as 126% on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nThe 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.\nThe company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.\nTenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.\nAll in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.\n\"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.\nIn April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.\nTenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has seen its business explode as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment have also boosted its business in recent months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803757859,"gmtCreate":1627467312371,"gmtModify":1631889458348,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","listText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","text":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803757859","repostId":"1100886165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803752423,"gmtCreate":1627467057262,"gmtModify":1631889458362,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","listText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","text":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803752423","repostId":"1181811581","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175149178,"gmtCreate":1627016316994,"gmtModify":1631889458372,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","listText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","text":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175149178","repostId":"2153787206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172340748,"gmtCreate":1626939974584,"gmtModify":1631889458381,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","listText":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","text":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172340748","repostId":"1119296199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149205638,"gmtCreate":1625727188124,"gmtModify":1631889458396,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","listText":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","text":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149205638","repostId":"2149931325","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149206770,"gmtCreate":1625727079090,"gmtModify":1631889458465,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","listText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","text":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149206770","repostId":"1104195989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154014972,"gmtCreate":1625460133396,"gmtModify":1631889458418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","listText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","text":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday [生气]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154014972","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127562983,"gmtCreate":1624857332542,"gmtModify":1631889458428,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Online betting is the way to go lol","listText":"Online betting is the way to go lol","text":"Online betting is the way to go lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127562983","repostId":"1109276407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109276407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624847918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109276407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 10:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109276407","media":"Benzinga","summary":"It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but ","content":"<p><div> It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这可能不像与家人和朋友玩一轮德州扑克或吃角子老虎机那样令人兴奋，但对许多投资者来说，投资宾夕法尼亚国家博彩公司（纳斯达克：PENN）是一次有趣的经历。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 10:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这可能不像与家人和朋友玩一轮德州扑克或吃角子老虎机那样令人兴奋，但对许多投资者来说，投资宾夕法尼亚国家博彩公司（纳斯达克：PENN）是一次有趣的经历。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","DIS":"迪士尼","PENN":"佩恩国民博彩","F":"福特汽车","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109276407","content_text":"It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors.\nSince 2016, Penn National Gaming stock's five-year return has managed to beat some of the world’s largest e-commerce, media and automotive companies:Alibaba Group Holding Ltd – ADR(NYSE:BABA),Walt Disney Co(NYSE:DIS),Ford Motor Company(NYSE:F) and Amazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nPenn operates gaming and racing properties the U.S. The company has garnered popularity throughout 2020 and into 2021 thanks to its retail sports bettingofferingswith digital media company Barstool Sports.\nPenn offers live sports betting at its properties in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.\nHere's how the returns break down from June 2016 to present:\n\nAlibaba is up from $76.29 a share to $224.72 for a return of 194.56%\nDisney is up from $95.72 a share to $177.74 for a return of 85.68%\nFord is up from $12.52 a share to $15.38 for a return of 22.84%\nAmazon is up from $698.96 a share to $3406.75 for a return of 387.40%\nAnd finally, Penn is up from $13.95 a share to $75.36 for a return of 440.22%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"PENN":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127582278,"gmtCreate":1624856798494,"gmtModify":1631889458439,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree..","listText":"Agree..","text":"Agree..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127582278","repostId":"1177492181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177492181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177492181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177492181","media":"WSJ","summary":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has ","content":"<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上非常平静，但地下却出现了几十年来最大的动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自10月底以来，该指数尚未按收盘价调整5%；难怪开始在锁定状态下购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。S&amp;P上一次如此平静如此之久是在2017年，这段平静期随着2018年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外从未见过的速度在不同行业之间转换押注；3月份带来了自2002年以来表现最好和最差行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自1995年以来最弱的；投资者正在用它们作为押注支持或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大小股上一次如此独立的走势是在2000年的互联网泡沫期间，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是TINA的另一个方面：除了股票，没有其他选择。由于美国国债、公司债券和现金发行的回报微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的上涨希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券或反之亦然的投资者现在只需从一种股票转向另一种股票，因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证这种情况会继续下去。只要有足够的恐惧，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会蜂拥退出，就像去年3月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来相当好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通胀的长期债券是合理的。时代看起来确实很好。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施吹大了巨大的泡沫。自2000年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易明显存在泡沫心态。一批受散户交易者欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的名单上，特别是GameStopandaMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等最受欢迎的股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票远比平时贵。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会出现很大的波动，而不是表面平静和内部动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被担心泡沫即将破裂的其他人放大。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月的盘中峰值到10月的低点下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这次对股票最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，TINA购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特·巴克兰表示：“市场波动很大，但市场波动不大。”“如果除了拥有该指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会发生变化。”</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当事实证明有股票的替代品时，股价是多么敏感。美联储通过对其吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）提供0.05%而不是0%的利率，小幅提高了利率，并立即额外吸收了2350亿美元。有关两年内而不是之前预测的三年内加息的讨论增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了2%多一点，然后恢复了上行。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都不做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并让现金再次变得有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这不太可能很快发生，但可能将动荡从市场深处带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上非常平静，但地下却出现了几十年来最大的动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自10月底以来，该指数尚未按收盘价调整5%；难怪开始在锁定状态下购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。S&amp;P上一次如此平静如此之久是在2017年，这段平静期随着2018年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外从未见过的速度在不同行业之间转换押注；3月份带来了自2002年以来表现最好和最差行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自1995年以来最弱的；投资者正在用它们作为押注支持或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大小股上一次如此独立的走势是在2000年的互联网泡沫期间，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是TINA的另一个方面：除了股票，没有其他选择。由于美国国债、公司债券和现金发行的回报微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的上涨希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券或反之亦然的投资者现在只需从一种股票转向另一种股票，因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证这种情况会继续下去。只要有足够的恐惧，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会蜂拥退出，就像去年3月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来相当好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通胀的长期债券是合理的。时代看起来确实很好。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施吹大了巨大的泡沫。自2000年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易明显存在泡沫心态。一批受散户交易者欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的名单上，特别是GameStopandaMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等最受欢迎的股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票远比平时贵。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会出现很大的波动，而不是表面平静和内部动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被担心泡沫即将破裂的其他人放大。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月的盘中峰值到10月的低点下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这次对股票最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，TINA购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特·巴克兰表示：“市场波动很大，但市场波动不大。”“如果除了拥有该指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会发生变化。”</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当事实证明有股票的替代品时，股价是多么敏感。美联储通过对其吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）提供0.05%而不是0%的利率，小幅提高了利率，并立即额外吸收了2350亿美元。有关两年内而不是之前预测的三年内加息的讨论增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了2%多一点，然后恢复了上行。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都不做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并让现金再次变得有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这不太可能很快发生，但可能将动荡从市场深处带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177492181","content_text":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.\nThe S&P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.\nYet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.\nThe link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.\nMeanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.\nI think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.\nThere is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.\nA widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.\nIt is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.\nThis time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.\n“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”\nThis month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.\nIf that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124551967,"gmtCreate":1624774134259,"gmtModify":1631892150117,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Seems good for lomg terms investors [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124551967","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123250827,"gmtCreate":1624426129369,"gmtModify":1631892150123,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","listText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","text":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123250827","repostId":"2145069164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166619145,"gmtCreate":1624005555787,"gmtModify":1631892150125,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!&nbsp;","listText":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!&nbsp;","text":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166619145","repostId":"1113093847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161393331,"gmtCreate":1623903727523,"gmtModify":1631892150127,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","listText":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","text":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161393331","repostId":"2143794095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175149178,"gmtCreate":1627016316994,"gmtModify":1631889458372,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","listText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","text":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175149178","repostId":"2153787206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154014972,"gmtCreate":1625460133396,"gmtModify":1631889458418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","listText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","text":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday [生气]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154014972","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803752423,"gmtCreate":1627467057262,"gmtModify":1631889458362,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","listText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","text":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803752423","repostId":"1181811581","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839481001,"gmtCreate":1629173680603,"gmtModify":1631883944418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","listText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","text":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839481001","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127582278,"gmtCreate":1624856798494,"gmtModify":1631889458439,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree..","listText":"Agree..","text":"Agree..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127582278","repostId":"1177492181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177492181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177492181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177492181","media":"WSJ","summary":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has ","content":"<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上非常平静，但地下却出现了几十年来最大的动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自10月底以来，该指数尚未按收盘价调整5%；难怪开始在锁定状态下购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。S&amp;P上一次如此平静如此之久是在2017年，这段平静期随着2018年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外从未见过的速度在不同行业之间转换押注；3月份带来了自2002年以来表现最好和最差行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自1995年以来最弱的；投资者正在用它们作为押注支持或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大小股上一次如此独立的走势是在2000年的互联网泡沫期间，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是TINA的另一个方面：除了股票，没有其他选择。由于美国国债、公司债券和现金发行的回报微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的上涨希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券或反之亦然的投资者现在只需从一种股票转向另一种股票，因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证这种情况会继续下去。只要有足够的恐惧，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会蜂拥退出，就像去年3月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来相当好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通胀的长期债券是合理的。时代看起来确实很好。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施吹大了巨大的泡沫。自2000年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易明显存在泡沫心态。一批受散户交易者欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的名单上，特别是GameStopandaMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等最受欢迎的股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票远比平时贵。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会出现很大的波动，而不是表面平静和内部动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被担心泡沫即将破裂的其他人放大。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月的盘中峰值到10月的低点下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这次对股票最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，TINA购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特·巴克兰表示：“市场波动很大，但市场波动不大。”“如果除了拥有该指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会发生变化。”</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当事实证明有股票的替代品时，股价是多么敏感。美联储通过对其吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）提供0.05%而不是0%的利率，小幅提高了利率，并立即额外吸收了2350亿美元。有关两年内而不是之前预测的三年内加息的讨论增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了2%多一点，然后恢复了上行。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都不做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并让现金再次变得有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这不太可能很快发生，但可能将动荡从市场深处带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上非常平静，但地下却出现了几十年来最大的动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自10月底以来，该指数尚未按收盘价调整5%；难怪开始在锁定状态下购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。S&amp;P上一次如此平静如此之久是在2017年，这段平静期随着2018年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外从未见过的速度在不同行业之间转换押注；3月份带来了自2002年以来表现最好和最差行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自1995年以来最弱的；投资者正在用它们作为押注支持或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大小股上一次如此独立的走势是在2000年的互联网泡沫期间，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是TINA的另一个方面：除了股票，没有其他选择。由于美国国债、公司债券和现金发行的回报微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的上涨希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券或反之亦然的投资者现在只需从一种股票转向另一种股票，因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证这种情况会继续下去。只要有足够的恐惧，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会蜂拥退出，就像去年3月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来相当好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通胀的长期债券是合理的。时代看起来确实很好。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施吹大了巨大的泡沫。自2000年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易明显存在泡沫心态。一批受散户交易者欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的名单上，特别是GameStopandaMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等最受欢迎的股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票远比平时贵。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会出现很大的波动，而不是表面平静和内部动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被担心泡沫即将破裂的其他人放大。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月的盘中峰值到10月的低点下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这次对股票最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，TINA购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特·巴克兰表示：“市场波动很大，但市场波动不大。”“如果除了拥有该指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会发生变化。”</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当事实证明有股票的替代品时，股价是多么敏感。美联储通过对其吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）提供0.05%而不是0%的利率，小幅提高了利率，并立即额外吸收了2350亿美元。有关两年内而不是之前预测的三年内加息的讨论增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了2%多一点，然后恢复了上行。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都不做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并让现金再次变得有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这不太可能很快发生，但可能将动荡从市场深处带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177492181","content_text":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.\nThe S&P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.\nYet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.\nThe link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.\nMeanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.\nI think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.\nThere is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.\nA widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.\nIt is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.\nThis time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.\n“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”\nThis month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.\nIf that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124551967,"gmtCreate":1624774134259,"gmtModify":1631892150117,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Seems good for lomg terms investors [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124551967","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899016355,"gmtCreate":1628141903777,"gmtModify":1631889458340,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat!","listText":"Huat!","text":"Huat!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899016355","repostId":"1183934326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183934326","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628140836,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183934326?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 13:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183934326","media":"Markets Insider","summary":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 1","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood联合创始人白菊·巴特（左）和弗拉德·特涅夫。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO后股价上涨高达126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果Robinhood股价到2025年收于101.50美元以上，联合创始人Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将获得1380万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比奖励价低19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司的S-1文件，本周Robinhood股价在IPO后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果Robinhood的股价到2025年长期收于101.50美元以上，Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将各获得1380万股股票。Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比Tenev和Bhatt解锁股票奖励所需的价格低19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50美元的价格障碍基于Robinhood股价在连续60天交易期间每天的日成交量加权平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood上周在首次公开募股中遭遇挫折，股价下跌了12%，但此后该股出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，收复了全部甚至部分跌幅。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三连续两天上涨了126%。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>1380万份限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但奖励条款在5月份进行了修订，将奖励截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果IPO时股价在30.45美元至50.75美元之间，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将其IPO定价为每股38美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果Tenev和Bhatt的股价在本十年末最终达到每股300美元，他们还将获得数百万股Robinhood股票。如果股价达到一些价格障碍，联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev的2200万股和Bhatt的1300万股，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev和Bhatt的股权奖励价值可能分别高达108亿美元和81亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一笔股权奖励授予后没有出售其累积股权奖励的一股。每股300美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood在文件中表示：“2021年基于市场的RSU旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，使其超过适用于2019年基于市场的RSU的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在COVID-19大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务呈爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的大幅上涨也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO后上涨126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 13:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood联合创始人白菊·巴特（左）和弗拉德·特涅夫。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO后股价上涨高达126%，使其创始人有望获得14亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果Robinhood股价到2025年收于101.50美元以上，联合创始人Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将获得1380万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比奖励价低19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司的S-1文件，本周Robinhood股价在IPO后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得14亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果Robinhood的股价到2025年长期收于101.50美元以上，Vlad Tenev和Baiju Bhatt将各获得1380万股股票。Robinhood股价周三触及85美元的盘中高点，仅比Tenev和Bhatt解锁股票奖励所需的价格低19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50美元的价格障碍基于Robinhood股价在连续60天交易期间每天的日成交量加权平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood上周在首次公开募股中遭遇挫折，股价下跌了12%，但此后该股出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，收复了全部甚至部分跌幅。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三连续两天上涨了126%。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>1380万份限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但奖励条款在5月份进行了修订，将奖励截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果IPO时股价在30.45美元至50.75美元之间，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将其IPO定价为每股38美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev和Bhatt只能获得20%的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果Tenev和Bhatt的股价在本十年末最终达到每股300美元，他们还将获得数百万股Robinhood股票。如果股价达到一些价格障碍，联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev的2200万股和Bhatt的1300万股，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev和Bhatt的股权奖励价值可能分别高达108亿美元和81亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一笔股权奖励授予后没有出售其累积股权奖励的一股。每股300美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood在文件中表示：“2021年基于市场的RSU旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，使其超过适用于2019年基于市场的RSU的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在COVID-19大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务呈爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的大幅上涨也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8\">Markets Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183934326","content_text":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.\nCo-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.\nShares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.\n\nA wild post-IPO rally in shares of Robinhood this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the company's S-1 filing.\nVlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to each receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.\nThe $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.\nRobinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a two-day rally of as much as 126% on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nThe 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.\nThe company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.\nTenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.\nAll in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.\n\"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.\nIn April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.\nTenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has seen its business explode as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment have also boosted its business in recent months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803757859,"gmtCreate":1627467312371,"gmtModify":1631889458348,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","listText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","text":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803757859","repostId":"1100886165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149206770,"gmtCreate":1625727079090,"gmtModify":1631889458465,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","listText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","text":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149206770","repostId":"1104195989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123250827,"gmtCreate":1624426129369,"gmtModify":1631892150123,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","listText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","text":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123250827","repostId":"2145069164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172340748,"gmtCreate":1626939974584,"gmtModify":1631889458381,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","listText":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","text":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172340748","repostId":"1119296199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626933778,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 14:02","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296199","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在芝加哥对美国银行美林子公司两名前贵金属交易员的欺骗审判中，检察官提供的聊天记录作为证据显示，其中一人爱德华·贝斯吹嘘操纵价格是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>据Maria Garibotti称，2009年1月28日，当Bases在德意志银行工作时，他在四分半钟内出价购买了2,740份黄金期货合约，价值约2.44亿美元。Analysis Group的副总裁为检察官研究交易所和交易数据。她说，超过98%的人在没有填补的情况下被取消。</blockquote></p><p> On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂周三告诉陪审员，在市场的另一边，随着价格上涨，德意志银行交易员Bases的一位同事出售了价值15,172,500美元的170份合约。</blockquote></p><p> “that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂表示，“这确实向你表明，有时操纵它是多么容易，”交易结束几分钟后，贝斯在发给另一位德意志银行交易员塞德里克·查努的聊天消息中写道。查努和另一位德意志银行交易员詹姆斯·沃利(James Vorley)上个月因2020年在另一次审判中因欺骗指控被定罪，分别被判处一年监禁。</blockquote></p><p> “I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.</p><p><blockquote>“我..经常在市场上闲逛，”贝斯在另一条消息中说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.</p><p><blockquote>Bases和美林交易员John Pacilio因涉嫌在2008年至2014年期间欺骗期货市场而面临联邦欺诈指控。</blockquote></p><p> Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂描述的另一个事件涉及2010年8月9日Bases和Pacilio的交易，当时两人都在美林工作。</blockquote></p><p> That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说，当天，Bases下达了购买10份铂金合约的冰山订单，其中6份在配售时被履行。Garibotti表示，在Bases下达买入订单后不到10秒，Pacilio就下达了以15,856,750美元的价格出售205份合约的订单，这几乎是交易所订单簿上可见价格的90%。她说，价格下降了，其余的基地订单都被填满了。她说，不到一秒钟后，Pacilio的卖单就被取消了。</blockquote></p><p> Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.</p><p><blockquote>Garibotti说，Analysis Group的员工在几年的时间里花了大约3000个小时研究此案的数据，向政府收取了120万美元的工作费用。</blockquote></p><p> The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.</p><p><blockquote>辩护律师还没有开始盘问加里博蒂。</blockquote></p><p> In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.</p><p><blockquote>在周二的开庭辩论中，基地的辩护律师告诉陪审团，一旦她的当事人明白欺骗是非法的，他就停止了这样做，而且政府发现的几乎所有行为都是在《多德弗兰克法案》颁布之前，该法案明确禁止欺骗。</blockquote></p><p> The case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).</p><p><blockquote>该案是美国诉Bases等人案，18-cr-00048，美国伊利诺伊州北区地方法院（芝加哥）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 14:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在芝加哥对美国银行美林子公司两名前贵金属交易员的欺骗审判中，检察官提供的聊天记录作为证据显示，其中一人爱德华·贝斯吹嘘操纵价格是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>据Maria Garibotti称，2009年1月28日，当Bases在德意志银行工作时，他在四分半钟内出价购买了2,740份黄金期货合约，价值约2.44亿美元。Analysis Group的副总裁为检察官研究交易所和交易数据。她说，超过98%的人在没有填补的情况下被取消。</blockquote></p><p> On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂周三告诉陪审员，在市场的另一边，随着价格上涨，德意志银行交易员Bases的一位同事出售了价值15,172,500美元的170份合约。</blockquote></p><p> “that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂表示，“这确实向你表明，有时操纵它是多么容易，”交易结束几分钟后，贝斯在发给另一位德意志银行交易员塞德里克·查努的聊天消息中写道。查努和另一位德意志银行交易员詹姆斯·沃利(James Vorley)上个月因2020年在另一次审判中因欺骗指控被定罪，分别被判处一年监禁。</blockquote></p><p> “I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.</p><p><blockquote>“我..经常在市场上闲逛，”贝斯在另一条消息中说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.</p><p><blockquote>Bases和美林交易员John Pacilio因涉嫌在2008年至2014年期间欺骗期货市场而面临联邦欺诈指控。</blockquote></p><p> Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂描述的另一个事件涉及2010年8月9日Bases和Pacilio的交易，当时两人都在美林工作。</blockquote></p><p> That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说，当天，Bases下达了购买10份铂金合约的冰山订单，其中6份在配售时被履行。Garibotti表示，在Bases下达买入订单后不到10秒，Pacilio就下达了以15,856,750美元的价格出售205份合约的订单，这几乎是交易所订单簿上可见价格的90%。她说，价格下降了，其余的基地订单都被填满了。她说，不到一秒钟后，Pacilio的卖单就被取消了。</blockquote></p><p> Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.</p><p><blockquote>Garibotti说，Analysis Group的员工在几年的时间里花了大约3000个小时研究此案的数据，向政府收取了120万美元的工作费用。</blockquote></p><p> The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.</p><p><blockquote>辩护律师还没有开始盘问加里博蒂。</blockquote></p><p> In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.</p><p><blockquote>在周二的开庭辩论中，基地的辩护律师告诉陪审团，一旦她的当事人明白欺骗是非法的，他就停止了这样做，而且政府发现的几乎所有行为都是在《多德弗兰克法案》颁布之前，该法案明确禁止欺骗。</blockquote></p><p> The case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).</p><p><blockquote>该案是美国诉Bases等人案，18-cr-00048，美国伊利诺伊州北区地方法院（芝加哥）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296199","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.\nOn Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.\nOn the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.\n“that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.\n“I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.\nBases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.\nAnother episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.\nThat day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.\nGaribotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.\nThe defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.\nIn opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.\nThe case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166619145,"gmtCreate":1624005555787,"gmtModify":1631892150125,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!&nbsp;","listText":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!&nbsp;","text":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166619145","repostId":"1113093847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149205638,"gmtCreate":1625727188124,"gmtModify":1631889458396,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","listText":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","text":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149205638","repostId":"2149931325","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127562983,"gmtCreate":1624857332542,"gmtModify":1631889458428,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Online betting is the way to go lol","listText":"Online betting is the way to go lol","text":"Online betting is the way to go lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127562983","repostId":"1109276407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109276407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624847918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109276407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 10:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109276407","media":"Benzinga","summary":"It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but ","content":"<p><div> It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这可能不像与家人和朋友玩一轮德州扑克或吃角子老虎机那样令人兴奋，但对许多投资者来说，投资宾夕法尼亚国家博彩公司（纳斯达克：PENN）是一次有趣的经历。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的5年回报率高于阿里巴巴-SW、Amazon、Disney和Ford</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 10:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这可能不像与家人和朋友玩一轮德州扑克或吃角子老虎机那样令人兴奋，但对许多投资者来说，投资宾夕法尼亚国家博彩公司（纳斯达克：PENN）是一次有趣的经历。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","DIS":"迪士尼","PENN":"佩恩国民博彩","F":"福特汽车","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109276407","content_text":"It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors.\nSince 2016, Penn National Gaming stock's five-year return has managed to beat some of the world’s largest e-commerce, media and automotive companies:Alibaba Group Holding Ltd – ADR(NYSE:BABA),Walt Disney Co(NYSE:DIS),Ford Motor Company(NYSE:F) and Amazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nPenn operates gaming and racing properties the U.S. The company has garnered popularity throughout 2020 and into 2021 thanks to its retail sports bettingofferingswith digital media company Barstool Sports.\nPenn offers live sports betting at its properties in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.\nHere's how the returns break down from June 2016 to present:\n\nAlibaba is up from $76.29 a share to $224.72 for a return of 194.56%\nDisney is up from $95.72 a share to $177.74 for a return of 85.68%\nFord is up from $12.52 a share to $15.38 for a return of 22.84%\nAmazon is up from $698.96 a share to $3406.75 for a return of 387.40%\nAnd finally, Penn is up from $13.95 a share to $75.36 for a return of 440.22%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"PENN":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161393331,"gmtCreate":1623903727523,"gmtModify":1631892150127,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","listText":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","text":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161393331","repostId":"2143794095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}