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tanks09

tanks09

earning some pocket money

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2021-12-12

Means Alibaba will drop further ?

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2021-11-29

Time to buy

RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote>

2021-11-24

Huat

Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote>

2021-11-13

Was it why btc went down ?

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2021-11-01

Huat all the way!

GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote>

2021-11-01

Tell me your opinion about this news...

GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote>

2021-10-31

Totally agree on point 4

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2021-10-25

Means all will go up?

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2021-10-20

Means what

ASML reports €5.2 billion net sales and €1.7 billion net income in Q3 2021<blockquote>ASML 报告 2021 年第三季度净销售额为 52 亿欧元，净利润为 17 亿欧元</blockquote>

2021-10-13

But the stock doesn’t look good

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2021-10-08

Means what

September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>

2021-10-05

Good time to buy in

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2021-09-30

Please don’t take all the business

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2021-09-29

Up up here we go

Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.2%</blockquote>

2021-09-20

Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes

Asia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote>

2021-09-20

Rise please rise

Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>一些中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-09-20

Waaaa

Dow futures tumble more than 500 points as September slide intensifies<blockquote>随着 9 月份下滑加剧，道琼斯期货暴跌超过 500 点</blockquote>

2021-09-16

Microsoft will fall harder

Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>

2021-09-16

How much more does she hold ?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-16

Like please

EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600652847","repostId":"1135792796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135792796","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637929678,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135792796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135792796","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government 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class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-26 20:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RLX&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;20%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a689154e06a326eaa3b964a2a6b86d9\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135792796","content_text":"RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874856051,"gmtCreate":1637761257266,"gmtModify":1637761257363,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874856051","repostId":"1108279137","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108279137","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637722968,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108279137?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 11:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108279137","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong after the company reported better-than-expected third-qu","content":"<p>Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong&nbsp;after the company&nbsp;reported&nbsp;better-than-expected&nbsp;third-quarter&nbsp;results.Its&nbsp;stock&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;8.3%&nbsp;in New York&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车公布好于预期的第三季度业绩后，该公司股价在香港飙升 10%。周二，其股价在纽约上涨 8.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5f65613d872b95ffb79d1221e86e14\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> XPeng reported a third-quarter loss of 15 cents a share from $888 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 18 cents a share and $789 million in sales.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车第三季度销售额为 8.88 亿美元，每股亏损 15 美分。华尔街预计每股亏损 18 美分，销售额为 7.89 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profit margin from selling cars came in at 13.6%, up from 11% in the second quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Operating profit, however, declined sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter partly because spending on R&amp;D ramped higher.</p><p><blockquote>汽车销售毛利率为13.6%，高于2020年第二季度的11%和第三季度的3.2%。然而，从第二季度到第三季度，营业利润连续下降，部分原因是研发支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> “In the third quarter, we continued record-setting growth with the highest vehicle deliveries among China’s startup new energy vehicle automakers,” said CEO He Xiaopeng in the company’s news release. XPeng delivered almost 26,000 cars in the third quarter.NIO&nbsp;(NIO) delivered about 24,000 and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;(LI) delivered about 25,000.</p><p><blockquote>“公司首席执行官何小鹏在公司新闻稿中说：”第三季度，我们继续保持创纪录的增长，在中国初创新能源汽车制造商中交付量最高。小鹏汽车第三季度交付了近2.6万辆汽车。蔚来汽车（蔚来）交付了约2.4万辆，理想汽车（LI）交付了约2.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p> “This outperformance testifies to the market’s recognition of the differentiated value our vertically integrated in-house developed software and hardware bring to our vehicles.”</p><p><blockquote>“这一卓越表现证明了市场对我们垂直整合的内部开发软件和硬件为我们的车辆带来的差异化价值的认可。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, XPeng expects to deliver between 34,500 and 36,500 in the fourth quarter. That implies about 12,000 vehicle deliveries each month in November and December. The company delivered about 10,100 vehicles in October. More than 12,000 vehicles would be a monthly record for XPeng.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，小鹏预计第四季度交付量将在 34,500 至 36,500 辆之间。这意味着 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 12,000 辆汽车。该公司10月份交付了约10,100辆汽车。超过 12,000 辆汽车将创下小鹏汽车的月度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Rising deliveries is a sign that the global semiconductor shortage that has roiled auto production all year isn’t hurting XPeng all that much. That’s good news. Xiaoping had another bit of unexpected good news for shareholders: robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的上升表明，全年扰乱汽车生产的全球半导体短缺并没有对小鹏汽车造成太大伤害。这是个好消息。小平给股东带来了另一个意想不到的好消息：机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> “The solid progress we’ve made in [our navigation guided pilot] fuels greater confidence in our ability to explore autonomous driving enabled mobility solutions in the future, such as robotaxi technologies,” added the CEO.</p><p><blockquote>“首席执行官补充说：”我们在[导航引导试点]方面取得的坚实进展，让我们对未来探索自动驾驶移动解决方案（如机器人出租车技术）的能力更加有信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-24 11:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong&nbsp;after the company&nbsp;reported&nbsp;better-than-expected&nbsp;third-quarter&nbsp;results.Its&nbsp;stock&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;8.3%&nbsp;in New York&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车公布好于预期的第三季度业绩后，该公司股价在香港飙升 10%。周二，其股价在纽约上涨 8.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5f65613d872b95ffb79d1221e86e14\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> XPeng reported a third-quarter loss of 15 cents a share from $888 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 18 cents a share and $789 million in sales.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车第三季度销售额为 8.88 亿美元，每股亏损 15 美分。华尔街预计每股亏损 18 美分，销售额为 7.89 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profit margin from selling cars came in at 13.6%, up from 11% in the second quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Operating profit, however, declined sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter partly because spending on R&amp;D ramped higher.</p><p><blockquote>汽车销售毛利率为13.6%，高于2020年第二季度的11%和第三季度的3.2%。然而，从第二季度到第三季度，营业利润连续下降，部分原因是研发支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> “In the third quarter, we continued record-setting growth with the highest vehicle deliveries among China’s startup new energy vehicle automakers,” said CEO He Xiaopeng in the company’s news release. XPeng delivered almost 26,000 cars in the third quarter.NIO&nbsp;(NIO) delivered about 24,000 and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;(LI) delivered about 25,000.</p><p><blockquote>“公司首席执行官何小鹏在公司新闻稿中说：”第三季度，我们继续保持创纪录的增长，在中国初创新能源汽车制造商中交付量最高。小鹏汽车第三季度交付了近2.6万辆汽车。蔚来汽车（蔚来）交付了约2.4万辆，理想汽车（LI）交付了约2.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p> “This outperformance testifies to the market’s recognition of the differentiated value our vertically integrated in-house developed software and hardware bring to our vehicles.”</p><p><blockquote>“这一卓越表现证明了市场对我们垂直整合的内部开发软件和硬件为我们的车辆带来的差异化价值的认可。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, XPeng expects to deliver between 34,500 and 36,500 in the fourth quarter. That implies about 12,000 vehicle deliveries each month in November and December. The company delivered about 10,100 vehicles in October. More than 12,000 vehicles would be a monthly record for XPeng.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，小鹏预计第四季度交付量将在 34,500 至 36,500 辆之间。这意味着 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 12,000 辆汽车。该公司10月份交付了约10,100辆汽车。超过 12,000 辆汽车将创下小鹏汽车的月度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Rising deliveries is a sign that the global semiconductor shortage that has roiled auto production all year isn’t hurting XPeng all that much. That’s good news. Xiaoping had another bit of unexpected good news for shareholders: robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的上升表明，全年扰乱汽车生产的全球半导体短缺并没有对小鹏汽车造成太大伤害。这是个好消息。小平给股东带来了另一个意想不到的好消息：机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> “The solid progress we’ve made in [our navigation guided pilot] fuels greater confidence in our ability to explore autonomous driving enabled mobility solutions in the future, such as robotaxi technologies,” added the CEO.</p><p><blockquote>“首席执行官补充说：”我们在[导航引导试点]方面取得的坚实进展，让我们对未来探索自动驾驶移动解决方案（如机器人出租车技术）的能力更加有信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏集团-W","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108279137","content_text":"Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong after the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results.Its stock jumped 8.3% in New York Tuesday.\n\nXPeng reported a third-quarter loss of 15 cents a share from $888 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 18 cents a share and $789 million in sales.\nGross profit margin from selling cars came in at 13.6%, up from 11% in the second quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Operating profit, however, declined sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter partly because spending on R&D ramped higher.\n“In the third quarter, we continued record-setting growth with the highest vehicle deliveries among China’s startup new energy vehicle automakers,” said CEO He Xiaopeng in the company’s news release. XPeng delivered almost 26,000 cars in the third quarter.NIO (NIO) delivered about 24,000 and Li Auto (LI) delivered about 25,000.\n“This outperformance testifies to the market’s recognition of the differentiated value our vertically integrated in-house developed software and hardware bring to our vehicles.”\nLooking ahead, XPeng expects to deliver between 34,500 and 36,500 in the fourth quarter. That implies about 12,000 vehicle deliveries each month in November and December. The company delivered about 10,100 vehicles in October. More than 12,000 vehicles would be a monthly record for XPeng.\nRising deliveries is a sign that the global semiconductor shortage that has roiled auto production all year isn’t hurting XPeng all that much. That’s good news. Xiaoping had another bit of unexpected good news for shareholders: robotaxis.\n“The solid progress we’ve made in [our navigation guided pilot] fuels greater confidence in our ability to explore autonomous driving enabled mobility solutions in the future, such as robotaxi technologies,” added the CEO.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873090889,"gmtCreate":1636786760945,"gmtModify":1636786815733,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Was it why btc went down ?&nbsp;","listText":"Was it why btc went down ?&nbsp;","text":"Was it why btc went down ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873090889","repostId":"1151602326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849207790,"gmtCreate":1635756687907,"gmtModify":1635756688065,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huat all the way!&nbsp;","listText":"Huat all the way!&nbsp;","text":"Huat all the way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849207790","repostId":"1161155083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161155083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635755116,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161155083?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161155083","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up ","content":"<p>GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up 5%.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 股价在盘前交易中飙升 10%。该股周五上市，收盘上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026499382ac060b57d31376eb891e36b\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries is appealing to public-market investors as interest in the semiconductor industry hits an all-time high. Shortages caused by a surge in demand for electronics during coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and insufficient supply have made chip factories more valuable to the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着人们对半导体行业的兴趣达到历史新高，GlobalFoundries 正在吸引公开市场投资者。冠状病毒大流行封锁期间电子产品需求激增和供应不足导致短缺，使得芯片工厂对经济更有价值。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of the year, GlobalFoundries had a net loss of $301 million on revenue of about $3 billion, compared with a loss of $534 million on $2.7 billion in revenue a year earlier, according to the filings.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，今年上半年，GlobalFoundries 净亏损 3.01 亿美元，收入约为 30 亿美元，而去年同期收入为 27 亿美元，净亏损 5.34 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Contract chipmakers like GlobalFoundries fabricate semiconductors for large technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. currently dominate the market, and Intel Corp. has ambitions to become a bigger force in that area too.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 等合同芯片制造商为苹果公司和亚马逊公司等大型科技公司制造半导体。台积电公司和三星电子公司目前主导着市场，英特尔公司也雄心勃勃地成为该领域的一股更大力量。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries previously gave up on the kind of leading-edge production that would match the capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor or Samsung. Instead, it’s serving the market for less advanced chips, which are increasingly critical to carmakers and other industries.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 此前放弃了与台积电或三星能力相匹配的领先生产。相反，它正在为不太先进的芯片市场提供服务，而这些芯片对汽车制造商和其他行业来说越来越重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up 5%.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 股价在盘前交易中飙升 10%。该股周五上市，收盘上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026499382ac060b57d31376eb891e36b\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries is appealing to public-market investors as interest in the semiconductor industry hits an all-time high. Shortages caused by a surge in demand for electronics during coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and insufficient supply have made chip factories more valuable to the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着人们对半导体行业的兴趣达到历史新高，GlobalFoundries 正在吸引公开市场投资者。冠状病毒大流行封锁期间电子产品需求激增和供应不足导致短缺，使得芯片工厂对经济更有价值。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of the year, GlobalFoundries had a net loss of $301 million on revenue of about $3 billion, compared with a loss of $534 million on $2.7 billion in revenue a year earlier, according to the filings.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，今年上半年，GlobalFoundries 净亏损 3.01 亿美元，收入约为 30 亿美元，而去年同期收入为 27 亿美元，净亏损 5.34 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Contract chipmakers like GlobalFoundries fabricate semiconductors for large technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. currently dominate the market, and Intel Corp. has ambitions to become a bigger force in that area too.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 等合同芯片制造商为苹果公司和亚马逊公司等大型科技公司制造半导体。台积电公司和三星电子公司目前主导着市场，英特尔公司也雄心勃勃地成为该领域的一股更大力量。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries previously gave up on the kind of leading-edge production that would match the capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor or Samsung. Instead, it’s serving the market for less advanced chips, which are increasingly critical to carmakers and other industries.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 此前放弃了与台积电或三星能力相匹配的领先生产。相反，它正在为不太先进的芯片市场提供服务，而这些芯片对汽车制造商和其他行业来说越来越重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161155083","content_text":"GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up 5%.\n\nGlobalFoundries is appealing to public-market investors as interest in the semiconductor industry hits an all-time high. Shortages caused by a surge in demand for electronics during coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and insufficient supply have made chip factories more valuable to the economy.\nFor the first half of the year, GlobalFoundries had a net loss of $301 million on revenue of about $3 billion, compared with a loss of $534 million on $2.7 billion in revenue a year earlier, according to the filings.\nContract chipmakers like GlobalFoundries fabricate semiconductors for large technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. currently dominate the market, and Intel Corp. has ambitions to become a bigger force in that area too.\nGlobalFoundries previously gave up on the kind of leading-edge production that would match the capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor or Samsung. Instead, it’s serving the market for less advanced chips, which are increasingly critical to carmakers and other industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GFS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849207503,"gmtCreate":1635756675282,"gmtModify":1635756675385,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849207503","repostId":"1161155083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161155083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635755116,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161155083?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161155083","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up ","content":"<p>GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up 5%.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 股价在盘前交易中飙升 10%。该股周五上市，收盘上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026499382ac060b57d31376eb891e36b\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries is appealing to public-market investors as interest in the semiconductor industry hits an all-time high. Shortages caused by a surge in demand for electronics during coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and insufficient supply have made chip factories more valuable to the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着人们对半导体行业的兴趣达到历史新高，GlobalFoundries 正在吸引公开市场投资者。冠状病毒大流行封锁期间电子产品需求激增和供应不足导致短缺，使得芯片工厂对经济更有价值。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of the year, GlobalFoundries had a net loss of $301 million on revenue of about $3 billion, compared with a loss of $534 million on $2.7 billion in revenue a year earlier, according to the filings.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，今年上半年，GlobalFoundries 净亏损 3.01 亿美元，收入约为 30 亿美元，而去年同期收入为 27 亿美元，净亏损 5.34 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Contract chipmakers like GlobalFoundries fabricate semiconductors for large technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. currently dominate the market, and Intel Corp. has ambitions to become a bigger force in that area too.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 等合同芯片制造商为苹果公司和亚马逊公司等大型科技公司制造半导体。台积电公司和三星电子公司目前主导着市场，英特尔公司也雄心勃勃地成为该领域的一股更大力量。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries previously gave up on the kind of leading-edge production that would match the capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor or Samsung. Instead, it’s serving the market for less advanced chips, which are increasingly critical to carmakers and other industries.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 此前放弃了与台积电或三星能力相匹配的领先生产。相反，它正在为不太先进的芯片市场提供服务，而这些芯片对汽车制造商和其他行业来说越来越重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading<blockquote>GlobalFoundries股价在盘前交易中飙升10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up 5%.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 股价在盘前交易中飙升 10%。该股周五上市，收盘上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026499382ac060b57d31376eb891e36b\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries is appealing to public-market investors as interest in the semiconductor industry hits an all-time high. Shortages caused by a surge in demand for electronics during coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and insufficient supply have made chip factories more valuable to the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着人们对半导体行业的兴趣达到历史新高，GlobalFoundries 正在吸引公开市场投资者。冠状病毒大流行封锁期间电子产品需求激增和供应不足导致短缺，使得芯片工厂对经济更有价值。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of the year, GlobalFoundries had a net loss of $301 million on revenue of about $3 billion, compared with a loss of $534 million on $2.7 billion in revenue a year earlier, according to the filings.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，今年上半年，GlobalFoundries 净亏损 3.01 亿美元，收入约为 30 亿美元，而去年同期收入为 27 亿美元，净亏损 5.34 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Contract chipmakers like GlobalFoundries fabricate semiconductors for large technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. currently dominate the market, and Intel Corp. has ambitions to become a bigger force in that area too.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 等合同芯片制造商为苹果公司和亚马逊公司等大型科技公司制造半导体。台积电公司和三星电子公司目前主导着市场，英特尔公司也雄心勃勃地成为该领域的一股更大力量。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries previously gave up on the kind of leading-edge production that would match the capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor or Samsung. Instead, it’s serving the market for less advanced chips, which are increasingly critical to carmakers and other industries.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 此前放弃了与台积电或三星能力相匹配的领先生产。相反，它正在为不太先进的芯片市场提供服务，而这些芯片对汽车制造商和其他行业来说越来越重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161155083","content_text":"GlobalFoundries shares soared 10% in premarket trading.The stock was listed on Friday and closed up 5%.\n\nGlobalFoundries is appealing to public-market investors as interest in the semiconductor industry hits an all-time high. Shortages caused by a surge in demand for electronics during coronavirus pandemic lockdowns and insufficient supply have made chip factories more valuable to the economy.\nFor the first half of the year, GlobalFoundries had a net loss of $301 million on revenue of about $3 billion, compared with a loss of $534 million on $2.7 billion in revenue a year earlier, according to the filings.\nContract chipmakers like GlobalFoundries fabricate semiconductors for large technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. currently dominate the market, and Intel Corp. has ambitions to become a bigger force in that area too.\nGlobalFoundries previously gave up on the kind of leading-edge production that would match the capabilities of Taiwan Semiconductor or Samsung. Instead, it’s serving the market for less advanced chips, which are increasingly critical to carmakers and other industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GFS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840681195,"gmtCreate":1635643020866,"gmtModify":1635643020973,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Totally agree on point 4","listText":"Totally agree on point 4","text":"Totally agree on point 4","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840681195","repostId":"2179245604","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856057424,"gmtCreate":1635133536670,"gmtModify":1635133537026,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Means all will go up?&nbsp;","listText":"Means all will go up?&nbsp;","text":"Means all will go up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856057424","repostId":"1117323904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859527035,"gmtCreate":1634714991359,"gmtModify":1634714991731,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Means what&nbsp;","listText":"Means what&nbsp;","text":"Means what","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859527035","repostId":"1189303892","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189303892","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634706596,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189303892?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 13:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML reports €5.2 billion net sales and €1.7 billion net income in Q3 2021<blockquote>ASML 报告 2021 年第三季度净销售额为 52 亿欧元，净利润为 17 亿欧元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189303892","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2021 third-quarter results.\n\nQ3 net sales of €5.2 bi","content":"<p>Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2021 third-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>今天，ASML Holding NV (ASML) 发布了 2021 年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Q3 net sales of €5.2 billion, gross margin of 51.7%, net income of €1.7 billion</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度净销售额52亿欧元，毛利率51.7%，净利润17亿欧元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Q3 net bookings of €6.2 billion</p><p><blockquote><li>第三季度净预订量为 62 亿欧元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>ASML expects Q4 2021 net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%</p><p><blockquote><li>ASML 预计 2021 年第四季度净销售额在 49 亿欧元至 52 亿欧元之间，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之间</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb20490860f1e0c5687de4f41a6c456\" tg-width=\"1142\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>CEO statement and outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首席执行官声明和展望</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Our third-quarter net sales came in at €5.2 billion with a gross margin of 51.7%, both within our guidance. Our third-quarter net bookings came in at €6.2 billion, including €2.9 billion from EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>“我们第三季度净销售额为 52 亿欧元，毛利率为 51.7%，均在我们的指导范围内。我们第三季度净预订额为 62 亿欧元，其中 EUV systems 的 29 亿欧元。</blockquote></p><p> \"The demand continues to be high. The ongoing digital transformation and current chip shortage fuel the need to increase our capacity to meet the current and expected future demand for Memory and for all Logic nodes.</p><p><blockquote>“需求仍然很高。正在进行的数字化转型和当前的芯片短缺促使我们需要增加产能，以满足当前和预期未来对内存和所有逻辑节点的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"ASML expects fourth-quarter net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. ASML expects R&amp;D costs of around €670 million and SG&amp;A costs of around €195 million. For the full year, we are on track to achieving growth approaching 35%,\" said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink.</p><p><blockquote>“ASML 预计第四季度净销售额在 49 亿欧元至 52 亿欧元之间，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之间。ASML 预计研发成本约为 6.7 亿欧元，SG&amp;A 成本约为 1.95 亿欧元。全年，我们有望实现接近 35% 的增长，”ASML 总裁兼首席执行官 Peter Wennink 说道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Products and business highlights</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品及业务亮点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In theirs EUV business, they had a record quarter in terms of shipments and revenue, due to the volume as well as the share of TWINSCAN NXE:3600D systems.</li>  <li>The TWINSCAN NXE:3600D achieved a record of 160 wafers per hour at customers' sites.</li>  <li>In theirs DUV business, they reached a milestone as they shipped the 1000th ArF immersion scanner. The first immersion system designed to support volume manufacturing, the XT:1700Fi, was shipped 15 years ago, in 2006.</li>  <li>On October 19, 2021, they&nbsp;reached an agreement with Jenoptik AG&nbsp;whereby they will acquire the Medical Applications and Swiss Optic business of Berliner Glas. The deal is targeted to close by the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals. This concludes our divestment plans regarding the non-semiconductor businesses of Berliner Glas. ASML acquired Berliner Glas in 2020.</li> </ul> <b>Interim dividend and share buyback program update</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在 EUV 业务中，由于 TWINSCAN NXE:3600D 系统的销量和份额，他们在出货量和收入方面创下了历史新高。</li><li>TWINSCAN NXE:3600D 在客户现场实现了每小时 160 片晶圆的记录。</li><li>在他们的DUV业务中，他们达到了一个里程碑，因为他们运送了第1000台ArF浸入式扫描仪。第一个旨在支持批量生产的浸入式系统 XT:1700Fi 于 15 年前的 2006 年发货。</li><li>2021年10月19日，他们与Jenoptik AG达成协议，根据该协议，他们将收购Berliner Glas的医疗应用和瑞士光学业务。该交易计划于今年年底前完成，但须获得监管部门的批准。我们关于柏林玻璃非半导体业务的撤资计划到此结束。ASML 于 2020 年收购了柏林玻璃。</li></ul><b>中期股息和股票回购计划更新</b></blockquote></p><p> The interim dividend for 2021 will be €1.80 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the EUR/USD conversion will be November 2, 2021, and the record date will be November 3, 2021. The dividend will be made payable on November 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的中期股息将为每股普通股1.80欧元。欧元/美元兑换的除息日和固定日将是2021年11月2日，记录日将是2021年11月3日。股息将于2021年11月12日支付。</blockquote></p><p> As part of its financial policy to return excess cash to its shareholders through growing annualized dividends and regularly timed share buybacks, ASML announced a new share buyback program which started on July 22, 2021, and is to be executed by December 31, 2023. As part of this program, ASML intends to repurchase shares up to an amount of €9 billion, of which we expect a total of up to 0.45 million shares will be used to cover employee share plans. ASML intends to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchased. In the third quarter, they purchased around €2.4 billion of shares under the current and previous program.</p><p><blockquote>作为通过增加年化股息和定期股票回购向股东返还多余现金的财务政策的一部分，ASML 宣布了一项新的股票回购计划，该计划于 2021 年 7 月 22 日开始，并将于 2023 年 12 月 31 日执行。作为该计划的一部分，ASML 打算回购最多 90 亿欧元的股票，其中我们预计总共最多 45 万股将用于支付员工持股计划。ASML 打算取消剩余回购股份。第三季度，他们根据当前和之前的计划购买了约 24 亿欧元股票。</blockquote></p><p> The share buyback program will be executed within the limitations of the existing authority granted by the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM) on April 29, 2021, and of the authority to be granted by future AGMs. The share buyback program may be suspended, modified or discontinued at any time.</p><p><blockquote>股份回购计划将在2021年4月29日股东周年大会（AGM）授予的现有权力以及未来股东周年大会授予的权力范围内执行。股份回购计划可随时暂停、修改或终止。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML reports €5.2 billion net sales and €1.7 billion net income in Q3 2021<blockquote>ASML 报告 2021 年第三季度净销售额为 52 亿欧元，净利润为 17 亿欧元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML reports €5.2 billion net sales and €1.7 billion net income in Q3 2021<blockquote>ASML 报告 2021 年第三季度净销售额为 52 亿欧元，净利润为 17 亿欧元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-20 13:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2021 third-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>今天，ASML Holding NV (ASML) 发布了 2021 年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Q3 net sales of €5.2 billion, gross margin of 51.7%, net income of €1.7 billion</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度净销售额52亿欧元，毛利率51.7%，净利润17亿欧元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Q3 net bookings of €6.2 billion</p><p><blockquote><li>第三季度净预订量为 62 亿欧元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>ASML expects Q4 2021 net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%</p><p><blockquote><li>ASML 预计 2021 年第四季度净销售额在 49 亿欧元至 52 亿欧元之间，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之间</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb20490860f1e0c5687de4f41a6c456\" tg-width=\"1142\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>CEO statement and outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首席执行官声明和展望</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Our third-quarter net sales came in at €5.2 billion with a gross margin of 51.7%, both within our guidance. Our third-quarter net bookings came in at €6.2 billion, including €2.9 billion from EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>“我们第三季度净销售额为 52 亿欧元，毛利率为 51.7%，均在我们的指导范围内。我们第三季度净预订额为 62 亿欧元，其中 EUV systems 的 29 亿欧元。</blockquote></p><p> \"The demand continues to be high. The ongoing digital transformation and current chip shortage fuel the need to increase our capacity to meet the current and expected future demand for Memory and for all Logic nodes.</p><p><blockquote>“需求仍然很高。正在进行的数字化转型和当前的芯片短缺促使我们需要增加产能，以满足当前和预期未来对内存和所有逻辑节点的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"ASML expects fourth-quarter net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. ASML expects R&amp;D costs of around €670 million and SG&amp;A costs of around €195 million. For the full year, we are on track to achieving growth approaching 35%,\" said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink.</p><p><blockquote>“ASML 预计第四季度净销售额在 49 亿欧元至 52 亿欧元之间，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之间。ASML 预计研发成本约为 6.7 亿欧元，SG&amp;A 成本约为 1.95 亿欧元。全年，我们有望实现接近 35% 的增长，”ASML 总裁兼首席执行官 Peter Wennink 说道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Products and business highlights</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品及业务亮点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In theirs EUV business, they had a record quarter in terms of shipments and revenue, due to the volume as well as the share of TWINSCAN NXE:3600D systems.</li>  <li>The TWINSCAN NXE:3600D achieved a record of 160 wafers per hour at customers' sites.</li>  <li>In theirs DUV business, they reached a milestone as they shipped the 1000th ArF immersion scanner. The first immersion system designed to support volume manufacturing, the XT:1700Fi, was shipped 15 years ago, in 2006.</li>  <li>On October 19, 2021, they&nbsp;reached an agreement with Jenoptik AG&nbsp;whereby they will acquire the Medical Applications and Swiss Optic business of Berliner Glas. The deal is targeted to close by the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals. This concludes our divestment plans regarding the non-semiconductor businesses of Berliner Glas. ASML acquired Berliner Glas in 2020.</li> </ul> <b>Interim dividend and share buyback program update</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在 EUV 业务中，由于 TWINSCAN NXE:3600D 系统的销量和份额，他们在出货量和收入方面创下了历史新高。</li><li>TWINSCAN NXE:3600D 在客户现场实现了每小时 160 片晶圆的记录。</li><li>在他们的DUV业务中，他们达到了一个里程碑，因为他们运送了第1000台ArF浸入式扫描仪。第一个旨在支持批量生产的浸入式系统 XT:1700Fi 于 15 年前的 2006 年发货。</li><li>2021年10月19日，他们与Jenoptik AG达成协议，根据该协议，他们将收购Berliner Glas的医疗应用和瑞士光学业务。该交易计划于今年年底前完成，但须获得监管部门的批准。我们关于柏林玻璃非半导体业务的撤资计划到此结束。ASML 于 2020 年收购了柏林玻璃。</li></ul><b>中期股息和股票回购计划更新</b></blockquote></p><p> The interim dividend for 2021 will be €1.80 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the EUR/USD conversion will be November 2, 2021, and the record date will be November 3, 2021. The dividend will be made payable on November 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年的中期股息将为每股普通股1.80欧元。欧元/美元兑换的除息日和固定日将是2021年11月2日，记录日将是2021年11月3日。股息将于2021年11月12日支付。</blockquote></p><p> As part of its financial policy to return excess cash to its shareholders through growing annualized dividends and regularly timed share buybacks, ASML announced a new share buyback program which started on July 22, 2021, and is to be executed by December 31, 2023. As part of this program, ASML intends to repurchase shares up to an amount of €9 billion, of which we expect a total of up to 0.45 million shares will be used to cover employee share plans. ASML intends to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchased. In the third quarter, they purchased around €2.4 billion of shares under the current and previous program.</p><p><blockquote>作为通过增加年化股息和定期股票回购向股东返还多余现金的财务政策的一部分，ASML 宣布了一项新的股票回购计划，该计划于 2021 年 7 月 22 日开始，并将于 2023 年 12 月 31 日执行。作为该计划的一部分，ASML 打算回购最多 90 亿欧元的股票，其中我们预计总共最多 45 万股将用于支付员工持股计划。ASML 打算取消剩余回购股份。第三季度，他们根据当前和之前的计划购买了约 24 亿欧元股票。</blockquote></p><p> The share buyback program will be executed within the limitations of the existing authority granted by the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM) on April 29, 2021, and of the authority to be granted by future AGMs. The share buyback program may be suspended, modified or discontinued at any time.</p><p><blockquote>股份回购计划将在2021年4月29日股东周年大会（AGM）授予的现有权力以及未来股东周年大会授予的权力范围内执行。股份回购计划可随时暂停、修改或终止。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189303892","content_text":"Today, ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2021 third-quarter results.\n\nQ3 net sales of €5.2 billion, gross margin of 51.7%, net income of €1.7 billion\nQ3 net bookings of €6.2 billion\nASML expects Q4 2021 net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%\n\n\nCEO statement and outlook\n\"Our third-quarter net sales came in at €5.2 billion with a gross margin of 51.7%, both within our guidance. Our third-quarter net bookings came in at €6.2 billion, including €2.9 billion from EUV systems.\n\"The demand continues to be high. The ongoing digital transformation and current chip shortage fuel the need to increase our capacity to meet the current and expected future demand for Memory and for all Logic nodes.\n\"ASML expects fourth-quarter net sales between €4.9 billion and €5.2 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. ASML expects R&D costs of around €670 million and SG&A costs of around €195 million. For the full year, we are on track to achieving growth approaching 35%,\" said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink.\nProducts and business highlights\n\nIn theirs EUV business, they had a record quarter in terms of shipments and revenue, due to the volume as well as the share of TWINSCAN NXE:3600D systems.\nThe TWINSCAN NXE:3600D achieved a record of 160 wafers per hour at customers' sites.\nIn theirs DUV business, they reached a milestone as they shipped the 1000th ArF immersion scanner. The first immersion system designed to support volume manufacturing, the XT:1700Fi, was shipped 15 years ago, in 2006.\nOn October 19, 2021, they reached an agreement with Jenoptik AG whereby they will acquire the Medical Applications and Swiss Optic business of Berliner Glas. The deal is targeted to close by the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals. This concludes our divestment plans regarding the non-semiconductor businesses of Berliner Glas. ASML acquired Berliner Glas in 2020.\n\nInterim dividend and share buyback program update\nThe interim dividend for 2021 will be €1.80 per ordinary share. The ex-dividend date as well as the fixing date for the EUR/USD conversion will be November 2, 2021, and the record date will be November 3, 2021. The dividend will be made payable on November 12, 2021.\nAs part of its financial policy to return excess cash to its shareholders through growing annualized dividends and regularly timed share buybacks, ASML announced a new share buyback program which started on July 22, 2021, and is to be executed by December 31, 2023. As part of this program, ASML intends to repurchase shares up to an amount of €9 billion, of which we expect a total of up to 0.45 million shares will be used to cover employee share plans. ASML intends to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchased. In the third quarter, they purchased around €2.4 billion of shares under the current and previous program.\nThe share buyback program will be executed within the limitations of the existing authority granted by the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM) on April 29, 2021, and of the authority to be granted by future AGMs. The share buyback program may be suspended, modified or discontinued at any time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822689992,"gmtCreate":1634126047450,"gmtModify":1634126047556,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"But the stock doesn’t look good&nbsp;","listText":"But the stock doesn’t look good&nbsp;","text":"But the stock doesn’t look good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822689992","repostId":"1182958686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821963057,"gmtCreate":1633687389214,"gmtModify":1633687389578,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Means what","listText":"Means what","text":"Means what","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821963057","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820645306,"gmtCreate":1633392506454,"gmtModify":1633392506783,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good time to buy in&nbsp;","listText":"Good time to buy in&nbsp;","text":"Good time to buy in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820645306","repostId":"1143781634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865478847,"gmtCreate":1633014287827,"gmtModify":1633014288174,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please don’t take all the business&nbsp;","listText":"Please don’t take all the business&nbsp;","text":"Please don’t take all the business","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865478847","repostId":"2171953891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862445760,"gmtCreate":1632906437244,"gmtModify":1632906485452,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up here we go&nbsp;","listText":"Up up here we go&nbsp;","text":"Up up here we go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862445760","repostId":"1181111544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181111544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632903392,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181111544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 16:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181111544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading as Apple customer service said that Power rationing in China has no impact on the iPhone13 and it can place an order normally.Some Apple and Tesla Motors Seventy percent of suppliers were forced to stop production for several days due to power cuts. Apple customer service said that it has not affected the delivery time of iPhone at present, so you can buy it with confidence.At present, several stores in Shanghai, as well as the surrounding stores in Su","content":"<p>Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Apple customer service said&nbsp;that&nbsp;Power rationing in China has no impact on the iPhone13 and it&nbsp;can place an order normally.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨1.2%，因苹果客服称国内限电对iPhone13没有影响，可以正常下单。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9171879191f6f912fe0590fab33ddf1\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tesla Motors&nbsp;Seventy percent of suppliers were forced to stop production for several days due to power cuts. Apple customer service said that it has not affected the delivery time of iPhone at present, so you can buy it with confidence.</p><p><blockquote>由于停电，一些苹果和特斯拉70%的供应商被迫停产几天。苹果客服表示，目前并没有影响到iPhone的发货时间，大家可以放心购买。</blockquote></p><p> At present, several stores in Shanghai, as well as the surrounding stores in Suzhou and Wuxi, are out of stock, and the order placed on September 29th will be delivered on November 4th at the earliest. At present, it is at the peak of iPhone13 series shipment, but many Apple supply chain factories have stopped production due to \"power cut\".</p><p><blockquote>目前上海多家门店以及苏州、无锡的周边门店都缺货，9月29日下的订单最快11月4日发货。目前正值iPhone13系列出货高峰期，但苹果多家供应链工厂因“断电”而停产。</blockquote></p><p> It is understood that Xinxing Electronics, a printed circuit board manufacturer of Apple Company, and Yisheng Precision, a major supplier of mechanical parts in Apple and Tesla Motors, both said on September 26 that they expected to stop working days in response to the regional policy of stopping industrial electricity consumption.</p><p><blockquote>据了解，苹果公司旗下印刷电路板制造商新兴电子以及苹果和特斯拉的主要机械零件供应商亿盛精密均在9月26日表示，预计将停止工作日，以响应地区停止工业用电的政策。</blockquote></p><p> However, Xinxing Electronics said that it will coordinate the production of other factories in the Group to meet the shipment demand of customers. It is estimated that the 4.5 working days of shutdown has not yet had a significant impact.</p><p><blockquote>不过，新兴电子表示，将协调集团内其他工厂的生产，以满足客户的出货需求。据估计，4.5个工作日的停工尚未产生明显影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-29 16:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Apple customer service said&nbsp;that&nbsp;Power rationing in China has no impact on the iPhone13 and it&nbsp;can place an order normally.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨1.2%，因苹果客服称国内限电对iPhone13没有影响，可以正常下单。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9171879191f6f912fe0590fab33ddf1\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tesla Motors&nbsp;Seventy percent of suppliers were forced to stop production for several days due to power cuts. Apple customer service said that it has not affected the delivery time of iPhone at present, so you can buy it with confidence.</p><p><blockquote>由于停电，一些苹果和特斯拉70%的供应商被迫停产几天。苹果客服表示，目前并没有影响到iPhone的发货时间，大家可以放心购买。</blockquote></p><p> At present, several stores in Shanghai, as well as the surrounding stores in Suzhou and Wuxi, are out of stock, and the order placed on September 29th will be delivered on November 4th at the earliest. At present, it is at the peak of iPhone13 series shipment, but many Apple supply chain factories have stopped production due to \"power cut\".</p><p><blockquote>目前上海多家门店以及苏州、无锡的周边门店都缺货，9月29日下的订单最快11月4日发货。目前正值iPhone13系列出货高峰期，但苹果多家供应链工厂因“断电”而停产。</blockquote></p><p> It is understood that Xinxing Electronics, a printed circuit board manufacturer of Apple Company, and Yisheng Precision, a major supplier of mechanical parts in Apple and Tesla Motors, both said on September 26 that they expected to stop working days in response to the regional policy of stopping industrial electricity consumption.</p><p><blockquote>据了解，苹果公司旗下印刷电路板制造商新兴电子以及苹果和特斯拉的主要机械零件供应商亿盛精密均在9月26日表示，预计将停止工作日，以响应地区停止工业用电的政策。</blockquote></p><p> However, Xinxing Electronics said that it will coordinate the production of other factories in the Group to meet the shipment demand of customers. It is estimated that the 4.5 working days of shutdown has not yet had a significant impact.</p><p><blockquote>不过，新兴电子表示，将协调集团内其他工厂的生产，以满足客户的出货需求。据估计，4.5个工作日的停工尚未产生明显影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181111544","content_text":"Apple shares rose 1.2% in premarket trading as Apple customer service said that Power rationing in China has no impact on the iPhone13 and it can place an order normally.\n\nSome Apple and Tesla Motors Seventy percent of suppliers were forced to stop production for several days due to power cuts. Apple customer service said that it has not affected the delivery time of iPhone at present, so you can buy it with confidence.\nAt present, several stores in Shanghai, as well as the surrounding stores in Suzhou and Wuxi, are out of stock, and the order placed on September 29th will be delivered on November 4th at the earliest. At present, it is at the peak of iPhone13 series shipment, but many Apple supply chain factories have stopped production due to \"power cut\".\nIt is understood that Xinxing Electronics, a printed circuit board manufacturer of Apple Company, and Yisheng Precision, a major supplier of mechanical parts in Apple and Tesla Motors, both said on September 26 that they expected to stop working days in response to the regional policy of stopping industrial electricity consumption.\nHowever, Xinxing Electronics said that it will coordinate the production of other factories in the Group to meet the shipment demand of customers. It is estimated that the 4.5 working days of shutdown has not yet had a significant impact.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860335855,"gmtCreate":1632133478477,"gmtModify":1632802638734,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes&nbsp;","listText":"Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes&nbsp;","text":"Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860335855","repostId":"1147800593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147800593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632106802,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147800593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Asia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147800593","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a doze","content":"<p>Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲股市下跌，美元周一坚挺，本周央行将召开不少于十几次会议，美联储可能会朝着缩减规模迈出又一步。</blockquote></p><p> Holidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.</p><p><blockquote>日本、中国和韩国的假期导致情况恶化，而加拿大和德国的选举将在本周结束，政治增加了额外的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;stocks in Hong Kong&nbsp;skidded more than 4% to their lowest in almost 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市下跌超过4%，跌至近11个月来的最低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42d1a9edab746e9add26971d833b8f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia&nbsp;down 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 日本以外最广泛的亚太股票指数继上周下跌 2.5% 后，又下跌 1.4%，其中澳大利亚下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Japan's Nikkei&nbsp;was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close. The market could do with consolidating after surging to 30-year highs on hopes a new Prime Minister will bring more stimulus and policy change.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经指数休市，但期货比周五现金收盘价低400点。由于希望新总理将带来更多刺激和政策变化，市场在飙升至 30 年来高点后可能会进行盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Nasdaq futures eased 0.5% and S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.3%, with Wall Street ending last week on a soft note after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克期货下跌 0.5%，标普500期货下跌 0.3%，在令人失望的美国消费者信心数据后，华尔街上周收盘走软。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is still expected to lay the groundwork for a tapering at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the consensus is for an actual announcement to be delayed until the November or December meetings.</p><p><blockquote>预计美联储仍将在周二和周三的政策会议上为缩减规模奠定基础，尽管人们普遍认为实际宣布将推迟到 11 月或 12 月的会议。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on 10-year Treasuries touched a two-month top and the curve flattened ahead of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率触及两个月高点，曲线在会议前趋平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A flatter yield curve suggests some fears the Fed may overdo the eventual hiking cycle,\" cautioned Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.</p><p><blockquote>NAB 经济总监塔帕斯·斯特里克兰 (Tapas Strickland) 警告称：“收益率曲线趋平表明人们担心美联储可能会过度加息周期。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted only 2-3 FOMC members would need to shift their \"dot plot\" forecasts for a hike in 2022 to make it the median, given seven of 18 had already tipped a move next year.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，只有 2-3 名 FOMC 成员需要改变他们对 2022 年加息的“点阵图”预测，以使其成为中位数，因为 18 名成员中有 7 名已经暗示明年加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will also have dots for 2024 which will give an indication of the steepness of the potential hiking cycle.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储还将制定 2024 年的 DOT，这将表明潜在加息周期的陡峭程度。”</blockquote></p><p> The market consensus is for two hikes in 2023 and four in 2024 with the longer-run fed funds rate seen at 2.125%.</p><p><blockquote>市场共识是 2023 年加息两次，2024 年加息四次，长期联邦基金利率为 2.125%。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in the EU, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Hungary all have meetings this week.</p><p><blockquote>欧盟、日本、英国、瑞士、瑞典、挪威、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、巴西、南非、土耳其和匈牙利的央行本周都将召开会议。</blockquote></p><p> The Norges Bank is expected to be the first in the G10 to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>挪威银行预计将成为G10中第一个加息的银行。</blockquote></p><p> Higher U.S. yields has combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar which was up near a one-month high at 93.303 on a basket of currencies.</p><p><blockquote>较高的美国收益率加上普遍的避险情绪，有利于美元，一篮子货币兑美元汇率接近93.303的一个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> It was range bound on the yen at 109.96 , while the euro was near its lowest in three weeks at $1.1717 in part on uncertainty ahead of Germany's election this weekend.</p><p><blockquote>日元汇率在109.96区间波动，而欧元汇率接近三周低点1.1717美元，部分原因是本周末德国大选前的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Canada goes to the polls on Monday with the race too close to call.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大将于周一进行投票，因为这场比赛与看涨期权的选情太接近了。</blockquote></p><p> The firmer dollar weighed on gold, which was pinned at $1,749 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week.</p><p><blockquote>美元走强令金价承压，金价在上周下跌 1.9% 后收于每盎司 1,749 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices eased as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国墨西哥湾的能源公司在该地区连续发生的飓风导致产量关闭后重启生产，油价有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Brent fell 54 cents to $74.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $71.40.</p><p><blockquote>布伦特原油下跌 54 美分，至每桶 74.80 美元，美国原油下跌 57 美分，至每桶 71.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Asia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAsia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 11:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲股市下跌，美元周一坚挺，本周央行将召开不少于十几次会议，美联储可能会朝着缩减规模迈出又一步。</blockquote></p><p> Holidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.</p><p><blockquote>日本、中国和韩国的假期导致情况恶化，而加拿大和德国的选举将在本周结束，政治增加了额外的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;stocks in Hong Kong&nbsp;skidded more than 4% to their lowest in almost 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市下跌超过4%，跌至近11个月来的最低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42d1a9edab746e9add26971d833b8f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia&nbsp;down 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 日本以外最广泛的亚太股票指数继上周下跌 2.5% 后，又下跌 1.4%，其中澳大利亚下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Japan's Nikkei&nbsp;was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close. The market could do with consolidating after surging to 30-year highs on hopes a new Prime Minister will bring more stimulus and policy change.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经指数休市，但期货比周五现金收盘价低400点。由于希望新总理将带来更多刺激和政策变化，市场在飙升至 30 年来高点后可能会进行盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Nasdaq futures eased 0.5% and S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.3%, with Wall Street ending last week on a soft note after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克期货下跌 0.5%，标普500期货下跌 0.3%，在令人失望的美国消费者信心数据后，华尔街上周收盘走软。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is still expected to lay the groundwork for a tapering at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the consensus is for an actual announcement to be delayed until the November or December meetings.</p><p><blockquote>预计美联储仍将在周二和周三的政策会议上为缩减规模奠定基础，尽管人们普遍认为实际宣布将推迟到 11 月或 12 月的会议。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on 10-year Treasuries touched a two-month top and the curve flattened ahead of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率触及两个月高点，曲线在会议前趋平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A flatter yield curve suggests some fears the Fed may overdo the eventual hiking cycle,\" cautioned Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.</p><p><blockquote>NAB 经济总监塔帕斯·斯特里克兰 (Tapas Strickland) 警告称：“收益率曲线趋平表明人们担心美联储可能会过度加息周期。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted only 2-3 FOMC members would need to shift their \"dot plot\" forecasts for a hike in 2022 to make it the median, given seven of 18 had already tipped a move next year.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，只有 2-3 名 FOMC 成员需要改变他们对 2022 年加息的“点阵图”预测，以使其成为中位数，因为 18 名成员中有 7 名已经暗示明年加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will also have dots for 2024 which will give an indication of the steepness of the potential hiking cycle.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储还将制定 2024 年的 DOT，这将表明潜在加息周期的陡峭程度。”</blockquote></p><p> The market consensus is for two hikes in 2023 and four in 2024 with the longer-run fed funds rate seen at 2.125%.</p><p><blockquote>市场共识是 2023 年加息两次，2024 年加息四次，长期联邦基金利率为 2.125%。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in the EU, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Hungary all have meetings this week.</p><p><blockquote>欧盟、日本、英国、瑞士、瑞典、挪威、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、巴西、南非、土耳其和匈牙利的央行本周都将召开会议。</blockquote></p><p> The Norges Bank is expected to be the first in the G10 to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>挪威银行预计将成为G10中第一个加息的银行。</blockquote></p><p> Higher U.S. yields has combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar which was up near a one-month high at 93.303 on a basket of currencies.</p><p><blockquote>较高的美国收益率加上普遍的避险情绪，有利于美元，一篮子货币兑美元汇率接近93.303的一个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> It was range bound on the yen at 109.96 , while the euro was near its lowest in three weeks at $1.1717 in part on uncertainty ahead of Germany's election this weekend.</p><p><blockquote>日元汇率在109.96区间波动，而欧元汇率接近三周低点1.1717美元，部分原因是本周末德国大选前的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Canada goes to the polls on Monday with the race too close to call.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大将于周一进行投票，因为这场比赛与看涨期权的选情太接近了。</blockquote></p><p> The firmer dollar weighed on gold, which was pinned at $1,749 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week.</p><p><blockquote>美元走强令金价承压，金价在上周下跌 1.9% 后收于每盎司 1,749 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices eased as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国墨西哥湾的能源公司在该地区连续发生的飓风导致产量关闭后重启生产，油价有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Brent fell 54 cents to $74.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $71.40.</p><p><blockquote>布伦特原油下跌 54 美分，至每桶 74.80 美元，美国原油下跌 57 美分，至每桶 71.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147800593","content_text":"Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.\nHolidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.\nThe stocks in Hong Kong skidded more than 4% to their lowest in almost 11 months.\n\nMSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia down 1.5%.\nJapan's Nikkei was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close. The market could do with consolidating after surging to 30-year highs on hopes a new Prime Minister will bring more stimulus and policy change.\nNasdaq futures eased 0.5% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, with Wall Street ending last week on a soft note after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data.\nThe Fed is still expected to lay the groundwork for a tapering at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the consensus is for an actual announcement to be delayed until the November or December meetings.\nYields on 10-year Treasuries touched a two-month top and the curve flattened ahead of the meeting.\n\"A flatter yield curve suggests some fears the Fed may overdo the eventual hiking cycle,\" cautioned Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.\nHe noted only 2-3 FOMC members would need to shift their \"dot plot\" forecasts for a hike in 2022 to make it the median, given seven of 18 had already tipped a move next year.\n\"The Fed will also have dots for 2024 which will give an indication of the steepness of the potential hiking cycle.\"\nThe market consensus is for two hikes in 2023 and four in 2024 with the longer-run fed funds rate seen at 2.125%.\nCentral banks in the EU, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Hungary all have meetings this week.\nThe Norges Bank is expected to be the first in the G10 to raise interest rates.\nHigher U.S. yields has combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar which was up near a one-month high at 93.303 on a basket of currencies.\nIt was range bound on the yen at 109.96 , while the euro was near its lowest in three weeks at $1.1717 in part on uncertainty ahead of Germany's election this weekend.\nCanada goes to the polls on Monday with the race too close to call.\nThe firmer dollar weighed on gold, which was pinned at $1,749 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week.\nOil prices eased as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.\nBrent fell 54 cents to $74.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $71.40.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860335964,"gmtCreate":1632133445558,"gmtModify":1632802638977,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rise please rise","listText":"Rise please rise","text":"Rise please rise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860335964","repostId":"1117610618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117610618","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632126033,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117610618?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 16:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>一些中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117610618","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 20) Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","content":"<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;Some&nbsp;China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月20日）部分中国概念股盘前交易下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc0bfb5f2f1bc4d2f48c30ba44145250\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>一些中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow futures tumble more than 500 points as September slide intensifies<blockquote>随着 9 月份下滑加剧，道琼斯期货暴跌超过 500 点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 18:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;Dow futures tumble more than 500 points as September slide intensifies.</p><p><blockquote>（9月20日）随着9月份下滑加剧，道琼斯期货暴跌超过500点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc89de52be2889d0d8d23568422db4a3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106910050","content_text":"(Sept 20) Dow futures tumble more than 500 points as September slide intensifies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885558875,"gmtCreate":1631805048697,"gmtModify":1631884140249,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Microsoft will fall harder","listText":"Microsoft will fall harder","text":"Microsoft will fall harder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885558875","repostId":"1126607843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126607843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631785252,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126607843?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126607843","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves at","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市出现大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>在最近的过去，苹果和微软对股市的大幅下跌做出了不同的反应。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设的修正情况下，微软的下跌潜力低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍……</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美国股市上一次大调整结束以来，纳斯达克指数已上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的平均年总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市出现新的重大调整的可能性更高。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对当前市场的价格水平持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流动性流入股市创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但这一事实本身就使得市场极其波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个基本的限制。但正是超宽松的货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经勾勒出来。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预期市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观来说，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果 (AAPL) 和微软 (MSFT) 哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定是由两个因素决定的。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，原则上，仅凭它们的动态就能引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这个因素起着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在最近市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为此，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场走势时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据是明确的：<i>在调整期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直较好。在这种情况下，所获得的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司表现出大致相同的回报。因此，在这里我们找不到我们问题的线索……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票价格可以从两个角度来看。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，价格反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下总和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司将来会支付。让我们模拟一下苹果和微软的价格。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了减少模型的主观性，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>.以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。对于最后一年，我使用等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的苹果股票目标价约为 181 美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>就苹果而言，在构建股息贴现模型时，还需要考虑到公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续目前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释股票的数量将减少到135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的 25% 用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息贴现模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的苹果股票目标价为 69 美元 (-54%)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的微软股票目标价约为 353 美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的势头将继续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到 72 亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的微软股票目标价为 203 美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>让我们总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我已经在这些公司的案例中观察到类似的结果很长时间了。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长时期，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种情况下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当调整的可能性已经超出形式上时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 17:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市出现大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>在最近的过去，苹果和微软对股市的大幅下跌做出了不同的反应。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设的修正情况下，微软的下跌潜力低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍……</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美国股市上一次大调整结束以来，纳斯达克指数已上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的平均年总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市出现新的重大调整的可能性更高。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对当前市场的价格水平持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流动性流入股市创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但这一事实本身就使得市场极其波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个基本的限制。但正是超宽松的货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经勾勒出来。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预期市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观来说，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果 (AAPL) 和微软 (MSFT) 哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定是由两个因素决定的。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，原则上，仅凭它们的动态就能引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这个因素起着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在最近市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为此，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场走势时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据是明确的：<i>在调整期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直较好。在这种情况下，所获得的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司表现出大致相同的回报。因此，在这里我们找不到我们问题的线索……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票价格可以从两个角度来看。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，价格反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下总和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司将来会支付。让我们模拟一下苹果和微软的价格。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了减少模型的主观性，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>.以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。对于最后一年，我使用等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的苹果股票目标价约为 181 美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>就苹果而言，在构建股息贴现模型时，还需要考虑到公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续目前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释股票的数量将减少到135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的 25% 用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息贴现模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的苹果股票目标价为 69 美元 (-54%)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的微软股票目标价约为 353 美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的势头将继续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到 72 亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的微软股票目标价为 203 美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>让我们总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我已经在这些公司的案例中观察到类似的结果很长时间了。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长时期，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种情况下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当调整的可能性已经超出形式上时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126607843","content_text":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.\nIn the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.\nApple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nIn the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.\n\nvicnt/iStock via Getty Images\nAs an introduction...\nSince the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:\nData by YCharts\nFor a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nIn addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.\nFirst, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:\nSource: Bank of America\nSecond, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is already outlined.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nAnd finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSo, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?\nWhy Apple vs. Microsoft?\nThe decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.\nFirstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSecondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.\nSome Statistics\nTo begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.\nTo do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:\nSource: TradingView, Author\nHere are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:\nSource: Author\nAt first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.\nBut in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...\nFundamentals\nExclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.\nOn the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's future cash flow. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of all potential dividendsthat the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.\nIn order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.\nLet's start with Apple. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nNotes:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).\nI used the current value of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.\n\nHere is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).\nIn the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:\nData by YCharts\nContinuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.\nApple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).\nNow let's take a look at Microsoft.\nHere is the calculation of the WACC:\nSource: Author\nAnd here is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).\nMicrosoft is also actively buying back shares:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).\nLet's summarize:\n\nIt is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nThis suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.\nBut during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.\nBottom line\nAt the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885689249,"gmtCreate":1631785308381,"gmtModify":1631890941626,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How much more does she hold ?&nbsp;","listText":"How much more does she hold ?&nbsp;","text":"How much more does she hold ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885689249","repostId":"2167287516","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885689170,"gmtCreate":1631785292090,"gmtModify":1631890941629,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581816252667558","authorIdStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885689170","repostId":"1178217262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178217262","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631780500,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178217262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 16:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178217262","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 0.5% and 2.8%","content":"<p>EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 0.5% and 2.8%&nbsp;while&nbsp;Lucid&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;as&nbsp;BofA called Lucid&nbsp;the 'Tesla/Ferrari of New EV Automakers'.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌 0.5% 至 2.8%，而 Lucid 则上涨近 2%，美国银行称 Lucid 为“新电动汽车制造商的特斯拉/法拉利”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b5ec452d391346819925d05588591\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood’s exchange-traded funds sold more Tesla Inc. shares, taking the total value of the electric vehicle maker’s stock they’ve offloaded this month to about $266 million.</p><p><blockquote>凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）的交易所交易基金卖出了更多特斯拉公司（Microsoft Inc.</blockquote></p><p> XPeng&nbsp;launched its third production model, the P5 sedan. A lidar-equipped EV that starts at less than 160,00 Chinese renminbi, or less than $25,000.There are lower-priced EVs on the market, but not with lidar-enabled, advanced driver assistance systems and not with range of the P5.The stock isn’t reacting too positively to the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车推出了第三款量产车型P5轿车。一款配备激光雷达的电动汽车，起价不到 160,000 元人民币，即不到 25,000 美元。市场上有价格较低的电动汽车，但没有配备支持激光雷达的高级驾驶辅助系统，也没有 P5 的续航里程。该股对这一消息的反应并不太积极。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行预测 Lucid 股价将上涨 50%，并将这家电动汽车制造商与特斯拉和法拉利进行了比较。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-16 16:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 0.5% and 2.8%&nbsp;while&nbsp;Lucid&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;as&nbsp;BofA called Lucid&nbsp;the 'Tesla/Ferrari of New EV Automakers'.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌 0.5% 至 2.8%，而 Lucid 则上涨近 2%，美国银行称 Lucid 为“新电动汽车制造商的特斯拉/法拉利”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b5ec452d391346819925d05588591\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood’s exchange-traded funds sold more Tesla Inc. shares, taking the total value of the electric vehicle maker’s stock they’ve offloaded this month to about $266 million.</p><p><blockquote>凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）的交易所交易基金卖出了更多特斯拉公司（Microsoft Inc.</blockquote></p><p> XPeng&nbsp;launched its third production model, the P5 sedan. A lidar-equipped EV that starts at less than 160,00 Chinese renminbi, or less than $25,000.There are lower-priced EVs on the market, but not with lidar-enabled, advanced driver assistance systems and not with range of the P5.The stock isn’t reacting too positively to the announcement.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车推出了第三款量产车型P5轿车。一款配备激光雷达的电动汽车，起价不到 160,000 元人民币，即不到 25,000 美元。市场上有价格较低的电动汽车，但没有配备支持激光雷达的高级驾驶辅助系统，也没有 P5 的续航里程。该股对这一消息的反应并不太积极。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行预测 Lucid 股价将上涨 50%，并将这家电动汽车制造商与特斯拉和法拉利进行了比较。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178217262","content_text":"EV Stocks slipped in premarket trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 0.5% and 2.8% while Lucid rose nearly 2% as BofA called Lucid the 'Tesla/Ferrari of New EV Automakers'.\n\nCathie Wood’s exchange-traded funds sold more Tesla Inc. shares, taking the total value of the electric vehicle maker’s stock they’ve offloaded this month to about $266 million.\nXPeng launched its third production model, the P5 sedan. A lidar-equipped EV that starts at less than 160,00 Chinese renminbi, or less than $25,000.There are lower-priced EVs on the market, but not with lidar-enabled, advanced driver assistance systems and not with range of the P5.The stock isn’t reacting too positively to the announcement.\nBank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":600652847,"gmtCreate":1638149925412,"gmtModify":1638149925584,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600652847","repostId":"1135792796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135792796","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637929678,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135792796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135792796","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-ciga","content":"<p>RLX&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;20%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a689154e06a326eaa3b964a2a6b86d9\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-26 20:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RLX&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;20%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a689154e06a326eaa3b964a2a6b86d9\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>随着政府发布电子烟新法规，RLX 股价在盘前交易中下跌近 20%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135792796","content_text":"RLX shares fell nearly 20% in premarket trading as the government released new regulations on e-cigarettes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873090889,"gmtCreate":1636786760945,"gmtModify":1636786815733,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Was it why btc went down ?&nbsp;","listText":"Was it why btc went down ?&nbsp;","text":"Was it why btc went down ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873090889","repostId":"1151602326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860335855,"gmtCreate":1632133478477,"gmtModify":1632802638734,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes&nbsp;","listText":"Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes&nbsp;","text":"Ya My Alibaba very Low.. please make it rise.. give some likes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860335855","repostId":"1147800593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147800593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632106802,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147800593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Asia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147800593","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a doze","content":"<p>Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲股市下跌，美元周一坚挺，本周央行将召开不少于十几次会议，美联储可能会朝着缩减规模迈出又一步。</blockquote></p><p> Holidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.</p><p><blockquote>日本、中国和韩国的假期导致情况恶化，而加拿大和德国的选举将在本周结束，政治增加了额外的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;stocks in Hong Kong&nbsp;skidded more than 4% to their lowest in almost 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市下跌超过4%，跌至近11个月来的最低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42d1a9edab746e9add26971d833b8f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia&nbsp;down 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 日本以外最广泛的亚太股票指数继上周下跌 2.5% 后，又下跌 1.4%，其中澳大利亚下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Japan's Nikkei&nbsp;was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close. The market could do with consolidating after surging to 30-year highs on hopes a new Prime Minister will bring more stimulus and policy change.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经指数休市，但期货比周五现金收盘价低400点。由于希望新总理将带来更多刺激和政策变化，市场在飙升至 30 年来高点后可能会进行盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Nasdaq futures eased 0.5% and S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.3%, with Wall Street ending last week on a soft note after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克期货下跌 0.5%，标普500期货下跌 0.3%，在令人失望的美国消费者信心数据后，华尔街上周收盘走软。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is still expected to lay the groundwork for a tapering at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the consensus is for an actual announcement to be delayed until the November or December meetings.</p><p><blockquote>预计美联储仍将在周二和周三的政策会议上为缩减规模奠定基础，尽管人们普遍认为实际宣布将推迟到 11 月或 12 月的会议。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on 10-year Treasuries touched a two-month top and the curve flattened ahead of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率触及两个月高点，曲线在会议前趋平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A flatter yield curve suggests some fears the Fed may overdo the eventual hiking cycle,\" cautioned Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.</p><p><blockquote>NAB 经济总监塔帕斯·斯特里克兰 (Tapas Strickland) 警告称：“收益率曲线趋平表明人们担心美联储可能会过度加息周期。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted only 2-3 FOMC members would need to shift their \"dot plot\" forecasts for a hike in 2022 to make it the median, given seven of 18 had already tipped a move next year.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，只有 2-3 名 FOMC 成员需要改变他们对 2022 年加息的“点阵图”预测，以使其成为中位数，因为 18 名成员中有 7 名已经暗示明年加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will also have dots for 2024 which will give an indication of the steepness of the potential hiking cycle.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储还将制定 2024 年的 DOT，这将表明潜在加息周期的陡峭程度。”</blockquote></p><p> The market consensus is for two hikes in 2023 and four in 2024 with the longer-run fed funds rate seen at 2.125%.</p><p><blockquote>市场共识是 2023 年加息两次，2024 年加息四次，长期联邦基金利率为 2.125%。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in the EU, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Hungary all have meetings this week.</p><p><blockquote>欧盟、日本、英国、瑞士、瑞典、挪威、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、巴西、南非、土耳其和匈牙利的央行本周都将召开会议。</blockquote></p><p> The Norges Bank is expected to be the first in the G10 to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>挪威银行预计将成为G10中第一个加息的银行。</blockquote></p><p> Higher U.S. yields has combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar which was up near a one-month high at 93.303 on a basket of currencies.</p><p><blockquote>较高的美国收益率加上普遍的避险情绪，有利于美元，一篮子货币兑美元汇率接近93.303的一个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> It was range bound on the yen at 109.96 , while the euro was near its lowest in three weeks at $1.1717 in part on uncertainty ahead of Germany's election this weekend.</p><p><blockquote>日元汇率在109.96区间波动，而欧元汇率接近三周低点1.1717美元，部分原因是本周末德国大选前的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Canada goes to the polls on Monday with the race too close to call.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大将于周一进行投票，因为这场比赛与看涨期权的选情太接近了。</blockquote></p><p> The firmer dollar weighed on gold, which was pinned at $1,749 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week.</p><p><blockquote>美元走强令金价承压，金价在上周下跌 1.9% 后收于每盎司 1,749 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices eased as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国墨西哥湾的能源公司在该地区连续发生的飓风导致产量关闭后重启生产，油价有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Brent fell 54 cents to $74.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $71.40.</p><p><blockquote>布伦特原油下跌 54 美分，至每桶 74.80 美元，美国原油下跌 57 美分，至每桶 71.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Asia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAsia stocks on the skids, HK hits 11-month low<blockquote>亚洲股市下滑，香港股市触及11个月低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 11:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲股市下跌，美元周一坚挺，本周央行将召开不少于十几次会议，美联储可能会朝着缩减规模迈出又一步。</blockquote></p><p> Holidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.</p><p><blockquote>日本、中国和韩国的假期导致情况恶化，而加拿大和德国的选举将在本周结束，政治增加了额外的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;stocks in Hong Kong&nbsp;skidded more than 4% to their lowest in almost 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市下跌超过4%，跌至近11个月来的最低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42d1a9edab746e9add26971d833b8f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia&nbsp;down 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 日本以外最广泛的亚太股票指数继上周下跌 2.5% 后，又下跌 1.4%，其中澳大利亚下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Japan's Nikkei&nbsp;was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close. The market could do with consolidating after surging to 30-year highs on hopes a new Prime Minister will bring more stimulus and policy change.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经指数休市，但期货比周五现金收盘价低400点。由于希望新总理将带来更多刺激和政策变化，市场在飙升至 30 年来高点后可能会进行盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Nasdaq futures eased 0.5% and S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.3%, with Wall Street ending last week on a soft note after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克期货下跌 0.5%，标普500期货下跌 0.3%，在令人失望的美国消费者信心数据后，华尔街上周收盘走软。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is still expected to lay the groundwork for a tapering at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the consensus is for an actual announcement to be delayed until the November or December meetings.</p><p><blockquote>预计美联储仍将在周二和周三的政策会议上为缩减规模奠定基础，尽管人们普遍认为实际宣布将推迟到 11 月或 12 月的会议。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on 10-year Treasuries touched a two-month top and the curve flattened ahead of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率触及两个月高点，曲线在会议前趋平。</blockquote></p><p> \"A flatter yield curve suggests some fears the Fed may overdo the eventual hiking cycle,\" cautioned Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.</p><p><blockquote>NAB 经济总监塔帕斯·斯特里克兰 (Tapas Strickland) 警告称：“收益率曲线趋平表明人们担心美联储可能会过度加息周期。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted only 2-3 FOMC members would need to shift their \"dot plot\" forecasts for a hike in 2022 to make it the median, given seven of 18 had already tipped a move next year.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，只有 2-3 名 FOMC 成员需要改变他们对 2022 年加息的“点阵图”预测，以使其成为中位数，因为 18 名成员中有 7 名已经暗示明年加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will also have dots for 2024 which will give an indication of the steepness of the potential hiking cycle.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储还将制定 2024 年的 DOT，这将表明潜在加息周期的陡峭程度。”</blockquote></p><p> The market consensus is for two hikes in 2023 and four in 2024 with the longer-run fed funds rate seen at 2.125%.</p><p><blockquote>市场共识是 2023 年加息两次，2024 年加息四次，长期联邦基金利率为 2.125%。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in the EU, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Hungary all have meetings this week.</p><p><blockquote>欧盟、日本、英国、瑞士、瑞典、挪威、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、巴西、南非、土耳其和匈牙利的央行本周都将召开会议。</blockquote></p><p> The Norges Bank is expected to be the first in the G10 to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>挪威银行预计将成为G10中第一个加息的银行。</blockquote></p><p> Higher U.S. yields has combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar which was up near a one-month high at 93.303 on a basket of currencies.</p><p><blockquote>较高的美国收益率加上普遍的避险情绪，有利于美元，一篮子货币兑美元汇率接近93.303的一个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> It was range bound on the yen at 109.96 , while the euro was near its lowest in three weeks at $1.1717 in part on uncertainty ahead of Germany's election this weekend.</p><p><blockquote>日元汇率在109.96区间波动，而欧元汇率接近三周低点1.1717美元，部分原因是本周末德国大选前的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Canada goes to the polls on Monday with the race too close to call.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大将于周一进行投票，因为这场比赛与看涨期权的选情太接近了。</blockquote></p><p> The firmer dollar weighed on gold, which was pinned at $1,749 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week.</p><p><blockquote>美元走强令金价承压，金价在上周下跌 1.9% 后收于每盎司 1,749 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices eased as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国墨西哥湾的能源公司在该地区连续发生的飓风导致产量关闭后重启生产，油价有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Brent fell 54 cents to $74.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $71.40.</p><p><blockquote>布伦特原油下跌 54 美分，至每桶 74.80 美元，美国原油下跌 57 美分，至每桶 71.40 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147800593","content_text":"Asian shares slid and the dollar held firm on Monday ahead of a week packed with no less than a dozen central bank meetings, highlighted by the Federal Reserve which is likely to take another step toward tapering.\nHolidays in Japan, China and South Korea made for thin conditions, and politics added extra uncertainty with elections in Canada and Germany bookending the week.\nThe stocks in Hong Kong skidded more than 4% to their lowest in almost 11 months.\n\nMSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid another 1.4%, after shedding 2.5% last week, with Australia down 1.5%.\nJapan's Nikkei was shut, but futures were 400 points below the Friday cash close. The market could do with consolidating after surging to 30-year highs on hopes a new Prime Minister will bring more stimulus and policy change.\nNasdaq futures eased 0.5% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, with Wall Street ending last week on a soft note after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data.\nThe Fed is still expected to lay the groundwork for a tapering at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the consensus is for an actual announcement to be delayed until the November or December meetings.\nYields on 10-year Treasuries touched a two-month top and the curve flattened ahead of the meeting.\n\"A flatter yield curve suggests some fears the Fed may overdo the eventual hiking cycle,\" cautioned Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.\nHe noted only 2-3 FOMC members would need to shift their \"dot plot\" forecasts for a hike in 2022 to make it the median, given seven of 18 had already tipped a move next year.\n\"The Fed will also have dots for 2024 which will give an indication of the steepness of the potential hiking cycle.\"\nThe market consensus is for two hikes in 2023 and four in 2024 with the longer-run fed funds rate seen at 2.125%.\nCentral banks in the EU, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Hungary all have meetings this week.\nThe Norges Bank is expected to be the first in the G10 to raise interest rates.\nHigher U.S. yields has combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar which was up near a one-month high at 93.303 on a basket of currencies.\nIt was range bound on the yen at 109.96 , while the euro was near its lowest in three weeks at $1.1717 in part on uncertainty ahead of Germany's election this weekend.\nCanada goes to the polls on Monday with the race too close to call.\nThe firmer dollar weighed on gold, which was pinned at $1,749 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week.\nOil prices eased as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.\nBrent fell 54 cents to $74.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 57 cents to $71.40.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821963057,"gmtCreate":1633687389214,"gmtModify":1633687389578,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Means what","listText":"Means what","text":"Means what","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821963057","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604031944,"gmtCreate":1639277902603,"gmtModify":1639277902823,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Means Alibaba will drop further ?&nbsp;","listText":"Means Alibaba will drop further ?&nbsp;","text":"Means Alibaba will drop further ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604031944","repostId":"2190275356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144020082,"gmtCreate":1626254717246,"gmtModify":1633928601511,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon please","listText":"To the moon please","text":"To the moon please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144020082","repostId":"1176184294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176184294","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626254217,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176184294?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 17:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's potential 'buy now, pay later' plan sends sector shares tumbling<blockquote>苹果潜在的“先买后付”计划导致行业股价暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176184294","media":"Reuters","summary":" -A report that Apple Inc is working on a service to let users pay for purchases in instalments dragged down shares in the ‘buy now, pay later’ sector, which has thrived during the pandemic as online shoppers look for easier repayment options.The U.S. tech giant will use Goldman Sachs, its partner since 2019 for the Apple Card credit card, as the lender for the loans, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.The prospect of going up against a behemoth like Apple, as well a","content":"<p>(Reuters) -A report that Apple Inc is working on a service to let users pay for purchases in instalments dragged down shares in the ‘buy now, pay later’ sector, which has thrived during the pandemic as online shoppers look for easier repayment options.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--有报道称，苹果公司正在开发一种让用户分期付款的服务，这一报道拖累了 “先买后付 ”行业的股价，该行业在大流行病期间蓬勃发展，因为网上购物者正在寻找更便捷的还款方式。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. tech giant will use Goldman Sachs, its partner since 2019 for the Apple Card credit card, as the lender for the loans, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道称，这家美国科技巨头将使用自 2019 年以来一直是苹果信用卡合作伙伴的高盛作为贷款机构。</blockquote></p><p> The prospect of going up against a behemoth like Apple, as well as other entrants including PayPal, was likely to test Australian pure-play BNPL firms that have so far gone unchallenged in a fertile U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>与苹果这样的巨头以及包括PayPal在内的其他进入者竞争的前景可能会考验澳大利亚纯粹的 BNPL 公司，这些公司迄今为止在肥沃的美国市场中未受到挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Australia-listed Afterpay, the country’s biggest BNPL provider which derives a big chunk of its revenue from the United States, dived nearly 10% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚最大的 BNPL 提供商 Afterpay 的股价周三暴跌近 10%，该公司是澳大利亚最大的 BNPL 提供商，其大部分收入来自美国。</blockquote></p><p> Smaller rivals Zip Co Ltd and Sezzle fell sharply. Nasdaq-listed Affirm Holdings Inc tumbled more than 14% on Tuesday following the Bloomberg report and closed 10.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>规模较小的竞争对手 Zip Co Ltd 和 Sezzle 大幅下跌。彭博社报道后，纳斯达克上市公司 Affirm Holdings Inc 周二股价暴跌超过 14%，收盘下跌 10.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Pay is a bigger threat than potential offerings from banks or credit companies given its wide reach and superior consumer experience on a mobile website or in-store, a client note by Citi analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师在一份客户报告中表示，鉴于苹果支付在移动网站或店内的广泛覆盖范围和卓越的消费者体验，它比银行或信贷公司的潜在产品构成更大的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> The BNPL industry has boomed as online shopping picked up pace during the global health crisis, with the number of merchants in the United States adding the repayment option nearly tripling in 2020, according to a McKinsey report.</p><p><blockquote>根据麦肯锡的一份报告，随着全球健康危机期间网上购物的加快，BNPL行业蓬勃发展，2020年美国商家增加了还款选项近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> In Australia, where the regulation of the fast-growing sector is light and adoption is higher compared to other markets, a Deloitte report said 30% of the consumers in the country have a BNPL account.</p><p><blockquote>在澳大利亚，与其他市场相比，对快速增长的行业的监管较轻，采用率较高，德勤的一份报告称，该国 30% 的消费者拥有 BNPL 账户。</blockquote></p><p> The sector’s fast-paced growth attracted Swedish firm Klarna, which has emerged as a major rival in Australia, and caught the attention of mainstream U.S. companies.</p><p><blockquote>该行业的快速增长吸引了瑞典公司 Klarna，该公司已成为澳大利亚的主要竞争对手，并引起了美国主流公司的注意。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. payments giant PayPal launched its service in Australia on Wednesday and raised the ante by saying it would do away with late fees, an area that had earned Afterpay close to A$70 million ($52.23 million) in fiscal 2020.</p><p><blockquote>美国支付巨头PayPal周三在澳大利亚推出了服务，并加大了赌注，表示将取消滞纳金，该领域在 2020 财年为 Afterpay 带来了近 7000 万澳元（5223 万美元）的收入。</blockquote></p><p> The Bloomberg report said Apple Pay users would be allowed to split their payments into four interest-free instalments, or across several months with interest - a model similar to rivals Klarna, Afterpay, Zip’s Quadpay and Affirm.</p><p><blockquote>彭博社的报道称，苹果支付用户将被允许将付款分成四期免息分期付款，或分几个月支付利息--这种模式与竞争对手 Klarna、Afterpay、Zip 的 Quadpay 和 Affirm 类似。</blockquote></p><p> A Goldman Sachs spokesperson declined to comment, while Apple was not available for comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛发言人拒绝置评，而苹果也未能置评。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay said competition reinforces the significance of the sector and that each BNPL player operates a different model and generate revenue in different ways.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay 表示，竞争增强了该行业的重要性，每个 BNPL 参与者都采用不同的模式并以不同的方式产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> A Zip spokesman said Apple’s reported move validated the company’s business where it was growing customer numbers despite increased competition.</p><p><blockquote>Zip 发言人表示，苹果的举动证明了该公司的业务，尽管竞争加剧，但该公司的客户数量仍在不断增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's potential 'buy now, pay later' plan sends sector shares tumbling<blockquote>苹果潜在的“先买后付”计划导致行业股价暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 17:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -A report that Apple Inc is working on a service to let users pay for purchases in instalments dragged down shares in the ‘buy now, pay later’ sector, which has thrived during the pandemic as online shoppers look for easier repayment options.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--有报道称，苹果公司正在开发一种让用户分期付款的服务，这一报道拖累了 “先买后付 ”行业的股价，该行业在大流行病期间蓬勃发展，因为网上购物者正在寻找更便捷的还款方式。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. tech giant will use Goldman Sachs, its partner since 2019 for the Apple Card credit card, as the lender for the loans, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道称，这家美国科技巨头将使用自 2019 年以来一直是苹果信用卡合作伙伴的高盛作为贷款机构。</blockquote></p><p> The prospect of going up against a behemoth like Apple, as well as other entrants including PayPal, was likely to test Australian pure-play BNPL firms that have so far gone unchallenged in a fertile U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>与苹果这样的巨头以及包括PayPal在内的其他进入者竞争的前景可能会考验澳大利亚纯粹的 BNPL 公司，这些公司迄今为止在肥沃的美国市场中未受到挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Australia-listed Afterpay, the country’s biggest BNPL provider which derives a big chunk of its revenue from the United States, dived nearly 10% on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚最大的 BNPL 提供商 Afterpay 的股价周三暴跌近 10%，该公司是澳大利亚最大的 BNPL 提供商，其大部分收入来自美国。</blockquote></p><p> Smaller rivals Zip Co Ltd and Sezzle fell sharply. Nasdaq-listed Affirm Holdings Inc tumbled more than 14% on Tuesday following the Bloomberg report and closed 10.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>规模较小的竞争对手 Zip Co Ltd 和 Sezzle 大幅下跌。彭博社报道后，纳斯达克上市公司 Affirm Holdings Inc 周二股价暴跌超过 14%，收盘下跌 10.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Pay is a bigger threat than potential offerings from banks or credit companies given its wide reach and superior consumer experience on a mobile website or in-store, a client note by Citi analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师在一份客户报告中表示，鉴于苹果支付在移动网站或店内的广泛覆盖范围和卓越的消费者体验，它比银行或信贷公司的潜在产品构成更大的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> The BNPL industry has boomed as online shopping picked up pace during the global health crisis, with the number of merchants in the United States adding the repayment option nearly tripling in 2020, according to a McKinsey report.</p><p><blockquote>根据麦肯锡的一份报告，随着全球健康危机期间网上购物的加快，BNPL行业蓬勃发展，2020年美国商家增加了还款选项近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> In Australia, where the regulation of the fast-growing sector is light and adoption is higher compared to other markets, a Deloitte report said 30% of the consumers in the country have a BNPL account.</p><p><blockquote>在澳大利亚，与其他市场相比，对快速增长的行业的监管较轻，采用率较高，德勤的一份报告称，该国 30% 的消费者拥有 BNPL 账户。</blockquote></p><p> The sector’s fast-paced growth attracted Swedish firm Klarna, which has emerged as a major rival in Australia, and caught the attention of mainstream U.S. companies.</p><p><blockquote>该行业的快速增长吸引了瑞典公司 Klarna，该公司已成为澳大利亚的主要竞争对手，并引起了美国主流公司的注意。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. payments giant PayPal launched its service in Australia on Wednesday and raised the ante by saying it would do away with late fees, an area that had earned Afterpay close to A$70 million ($52.23 million) in fiscal 2020.</p><p><blockquote>美国支付巨头PayPal周三在澳大利亚推出了服务，并加大了赌注，表示将取消滞纳金，该领域在 2020 财年为 Afterpay 带来了近 7000 万澳元（5223 万美元）的收入。</blockquote></p><p> The Bloomberg report said Apple Pay users would be allowed to split their payments into four interest-free instalments, or across several months with interest - a model similar to rivals Klarna, Afterpay, Zip’s Quadpay and Affirm.</p><p><blockquote>彭博社的报道称，苹果支付用户将被允许将付款分成四期免息分期付款，或分几个月支付利息--这种模式与竞争对手 Klarna、Afterpay、Zip 的 Quadpay 和 Affirm 类似。</blockquote></p><p> A Goldman Sachs spokesperson declined to comment, while Apple was not available for comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛发言人拒绝置评，而苹果也未能置评。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay said competition reinforces the significance of the sector and that each BNPL player operates a different model and generate revenue in different ways.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay 表示，竞争增强了该行业的重要性，每个 BNPL 参与者都采用不同的模式并以不同的方式产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> A Zip spokesman said Apple’s reported move validated the company’s business where it was growing customer numbers despite increased competition.</p><p><blockquote>Zip 发言人表示，苹果的举动证明了该公司的业务，尽管竞争加剧，但该公司的客户数量仍在不断增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/apple-pay-goldman-sachs/update-4-apples-potential-buy-now-pay-later-plan-sends-sector-shares-tumbling-idUSL4N2OP3RO\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/apple-pay-goldman-sachs/update-4-apples-potential-buy-now-pay-later-plan-sends-sector-shares-tumbling-idUSL4N2OP3RO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176184294","content_text":"(Reuters) -A report that Apple Inc is working on a service to let users pay for purchases in instalments dragged down shares in the ‘buy now, pay later’ sector, which has thrived during the pandemic as online shoppers look for easier repayment options.\nThe U.S. tech giant will use Goldman Sachs, its partner since 2019 for the Apple Card credit card, as the lender for the loans, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.\nThe prospect of going up against a behemoth like Apple, as well as other entrants including PayPal, was likely to test Australian pure-play BNPL firms that have so far gone unchallenged in a fertile U.S. market.\nShares of Australia-listed Afterpay, the country’s biggest BNPL provider which derives a big chunk of its revenue from the United States, dived nearly 10% on Wednesday.\nSmaller rivals Zip Co Ltd and Sezzle fell sharply. Nasdaq-listed Affirm Holdings Inc tumbled more than 14% on Tuesday following the Bloomberg report and closed 10.5% lower.\nApple Pay is a bigger threat than potential offerings from banks or credit companies given its wide reach and superior consumer experience on a mobile website or in-store, a client note by Citi analysts said.\nThe BNPL industry has boomed as online shopping picked up pace during the global health crisis, with the number of merchants in the United States adding the repayment option nearly tripling in 2020, according to a McKinsey report.\nIn Australia, where the regulation of the fast-growing sector is light and adoption is higher compared to other markets, a Deloitte report said 30% of the consumers in the country have a BNPL account.\nThe sector’s fast-paced growth attracted Swedish firm Klarna, which has emerged as a major rival in Australia, and caught the attention of mainstream U.S. companies.\nU.S. payments giant PayPal launched its service in Australia on Wednesday and raised the ante by saying it would do away with late fees, an area that had earned Afterpay close to A$70 million ($52.23 million) in fiscal 2020.\nThe Bloomberg report said Apple Pay users would be allowed to split their payments into four interest-free instalments, or across several months with interest - a model similar to rivals Klarna, Afterpay, Zip’s Quadpay and Affirm.\nA Goldman Sachs spokesperson declined to comment, while Apple was not available for comment.\nAfterpay said competition reinforces the significance of the sector and that each BNPL player operates a different model and generate revenue in different ways.\nA Zip spokesman said Apple’s reported move validated the company’s business where it was growing customer numbers despite increased competition.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":822689992,"gmtCreate":1634126047450,"gmtModify":1634126047556,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"But the stock doesn’t look good&nbsp;","listText":"But the stock doesn’t look good&nbsp;","text":"But the stock doesn’t look good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822689992","repostId":"1182958686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832356794,"gmtCreate":1629594122318,"gmtModify":1633683929696,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832356794","repostId":"1115632642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":874856051,"gmtCreate":1637761257266,"gmtModify":1637761257363,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874856051","repostId":"1108279137","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108279137","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637722968,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108279137?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 11:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108279137","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong after the company reported better-than-expected third-qu","content":"<p>Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong&nbsp;after the company&nbsp;reported&nbsp;better-than-expected&nbsp;third-quarter&nbsp;results.Its&nbsp;stock&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;8.3%&nbsp;in New York&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车公布好于预期的第三季度业绩后，该公司股价在香港飙升 10%。周二，其股价在纽约上涨 8.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5f65613d872b95ffb79d1221e86e14\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> XPeng reported a third-quarter loss of 15 cents a share from $888 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 18 cents a share and $789 million in sales.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车第三季度销售额为 8.88 亿美元，每股亏损 15 美分。华尔街预计每股亏损 18 美分，销售额为 7.89 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profit margin from selling cars came in at 13.6%, up from 11% in the second quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Operating profit, however, declined sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter partly because spending on R&amp;D ramped higher.</p><p><blockquote>汽车销售毛利率为13.6%，高于2020年第二季度的11%和第三季度的3.2%。然而，从第二季度到第三季度，营业利润连续下降，部分原因是研发支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> “In the third quarter, we continued record-setting growth with the highest vehicle deliveries among China’s startup new energy vehicle automakers,” said CEO He Xiaopeng in the company’s news release. XPeng delivered almost 26,000 cars in the third quarter.NIO&nbsp;(NIO) delivered about 24,000 and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;(LI) delivered about 25,000.</p><p><blockquote>“公司首席执行官何小鹏在公司新闻稿中说：”第三季度，我们继续保持创纪录的增长，在中国初创新能源汽车制造商中交付量最高。小鹏汽车第三季度交付了近2.6万辆汽车。蔚来汽车（蔚来）交付了约2.4万辆，理想汽车（LI）交付了约2.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p> “This outperformance testifies to the market’s recognition of the differentiated value our vertically integrated in-house developed software and hardware bring to our vehicles.”</p><p><blockquote>“这一卓越表现证明了市场对我们垂直整合的内部开发软件和硬件为我们的车辆带来的差异化价值的认可。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, XPeng expects to deliver between 34,500 and 36,500 in the fourth quarter. That implies about 12,000 vehicle deliveries each month in November and December. The company delivered about 10,100 vehicles in October. More than 12,000 vehicles would be a monthly record for XPeng.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，小鹏预计第四季度交付量将在 34,500 至 36,500 辆之间。这意味着 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 12,000 辆汽车。该公司10月份交付了约10,100辆汽车。超过 12,000 辆汽车将创下小鹏汽车的月度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Rising deliveries is a sign that the global semiconductor shortage that has roiled auto production all year isn’t hurting XPeng all that much. That’s good news. Xiaoping had another bit of unexpected good news for shareholders: robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的上升表明，全年扰乱汽车生产的全球半导体短缺并没有对小鹏汽车造成太大伤害。这是个好消息。小平给股东带来了另一个意想不到的好消息：机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> “The solid progress we’ve made in [our navigation guided pilot] fuels greater confidence in our ability to explore autonomous driving enabled mobility solutions in the future, such as robotaxi technologies,” added the CEO.</p><p><blockquote>“首席执行官补充说：”我们在[导航引导试点]方面取得的坚实进展，让我们对未来探索自动驾驶移动解决方案（如机器人出租车技术）的能力更加有信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong<blockquote>小鹏汽车股价在香港飙升10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-24 11:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong&nbsp;after the company&nbsp;reported&nbsp;better-than-expected&nbsp;third-quarter&nbsp;results.Its&nbsp;stock&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;8.3%&nbsp;in New York&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车公布好于预期的第三季度业绩后，该公司股价在香港飙升 10%。周二，其股价在纽约上涨 8.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5f65613d872b95ffb79d1221e86e14\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> XPeng reported a third-quarter loss of 15 cents a share from $888 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 18 cents a share and $789 million in sales.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车第三季度销售额为 8.88 亿美元，每股亏损 15 美分。华尔街预计每股亏损 18 美分，销售额为 7.89 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profit margin from selling cars came in at 13.6%, up from 11% in the second quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Operating profit, however, declined sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter partly because spending on R&amp;D ramped higher.</p><p><blockquote>汽车销售毛利率为13.6%，高于2020年第二季度的11%和第三季度的3.2%。然而，从第二季度到第三季度，营业利润连续下降，部分原因是研发支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> “In the third quarter, we continued record-setting growth with the highest vehicle deliveries among China’s startup new energy vehicle automakers,” said CEO He Xiaopeng in the company’s news release. XPeng delivered almost 26,000 cars in the third quarter.NIO&nbsp;(NIO) delivered about 24,000 and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;(LI) delivered about 25,000.</p><p><blockquote>“公司首席执行官何小鹏在公司新闻稿中说：”第三季度，我们继续保持创纪录的增长，在中国初创新能源汽车制造商中交付量最高。小鹏汽车第三季度交付了近2.6万辆汽车。蔚来汽车（蔚来）交付了约2.4万辆，理想汽车（LI）交付了约2.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p> “This outperformance testifies to the market’s recognition of the differentiated value our vertically integrated in-house developed software and hardware bring to our vehicles.”</p><p><blockquote>“这一卓越表现证明了市场对我们垂直整合的内部开发软件和硬件为我们的车辆带来的差异化价值的认可。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, XPeng expects to deliver between 34,500 and 36,500 in the fourth quarter. That implies about 12,000 vehicle deliveries each month in November and December. The company delivered about 10,100 vehicles in October. More than 12,000 vehicles would be a monthly record for XPeng.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，小鹏预计第四季度交付量将在 34,500 至 36,500 辆之间。这意味着 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 12,000 辆汽车。该公司10月份交付了约10,100辆汽车。超过 12,000 辆汽车将创下小鹏汽车的月度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Rising deliveries is a sign that the global semiconductor shortage that has roiled auto production all year isn’t hurting XPeng all that much. That’s good news. Xiaoping had another bit of unexpected good news for shareholders: robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的上升表明，全年扰乱汽车生产的全球半导体短缺并没有对小鹏汽车造成太大伤害。这是个好消息。小平给股东带来了另一个意想不到的好消息：机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> “The solid progress we’ve made in [our navigation guided pilot] fuels greater confidence in our ability to explore autonomous driving enabled mobility solutions in the future, such as robotaxi technologies,” added the CEO.</p><p><blockquote>“首席执行官补充说：”我们在[导航引导试点]方面取得的坚实进展，让我们对未来探索自动驾驶移动解决方案（如机器人出租车技术）的能力更加有信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏集团-W","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108279137","content_text":"Xpeng Motors shares surged 10% in Hong Kong after the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results.Its stock jumped 8.3% in New York Tuesday.\n\nXPeng reported a third-quarter loss of 15 cents a share from $888 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for a loss of 18 cents a share and $789 million in sales.\nGross profit margin from selling cars came in at 13.6%, up from 11% in the second quarter and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Operating profit, however, declined sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter partly because spending on R&D ramped higher.\n“In the third quarter, we continued record-setting growth with the highest vehicle deliveries among China’s startup new energy vehicle automakers,” said CEO He Xiaopeng in the company’s news release. XPeng delivered almost 26,000 cars in the third quarter.NIO (NIO) delivered about 24,000 and Li Auto (LI) delivered about 25,000.\n“This outperformance testifies to the market’s recognition of the differentiated value our vertically integrated in-house developed software and hardware bring to our vehicles.”\nLooking ahead, XPeng expects to deliver between 34,500 and 36,500 in the fourth quarter. That implies about 12,000 vehicle deliveries each month in November and December. The company delivered about 10,100 vehicles in October. More than 12,000 vehicles would be a monthly record for XPeng.\nRising deliveries is a sign that the global semiconductor shortage that has roiled auto production all year isn’t hurting XPeng all that much. That’s good news. Xiaoping had another bit of unexpected good news for shareholders: robotaxis.\n“The solid progress we’ve made in [our navigation guided pilot] fuels greater confidence in our ability to explore autonomous driving enabled mobility solutions in the future, such as robotaxi technologies,” added the CEO.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820645306,"gmtCreate":1633392506454,"gmtModify":1633392506783,"author":{"id":"3581816252667558","authorId":"3581816252667558","name":"tanks09","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3a860d19cbe659e537ab4dcbdc7d1d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581816252667558","idStr":"3581816252667558"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good time to buy in&nbsp;","listText":"Good time to buy in&nbsp;","text":"Good time to buy in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820645306","repostId":"1143781634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}