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Huuuuu

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2021-06-26

No

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

🤬

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

[Miser]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

[Shy]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

Wow

Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Why?

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Oh no

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117313016","media":"thestreet","summary":"Corsair Gaming  -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program","content":"<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p><p><blockquote>海盗船游戏（<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report 周一股价飙升，这家游戏和内容设备制造商似乎将其名字添加到最受欢迎的模因股票名单中。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>theYolosocks.livewebsite 跟踪 Reddit 的 r/wallstreetbets 聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据显示，Corsair 是用户讨论次数第二多的股票，从之前的第 11 名上升，在过去 24 小时内提及次数超过 860 次。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TheStreet 创始人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 警告说，对于像 Corsair 这样基本面稳健的股票来说，如此大幅上涨可能会吸引这些水平的大规模卖家。</blockquote></p><p> \"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默在接受 CNBC 的 Squawk on The Street 节目采访时表示：“Corsair 是我非常喜欢的一家公司，因为它基本上是罗技的升级版，而罗技一直是一只很棒的股票。”“他们拥有在电子竞技中占据主导地位所需的高性能设备，我认为电子竞技将会继续存在。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p><p><blockquote>“克莱默说：”我不知道为什么'迷因'人会垄断他们玩的任何东西。“没有一个华尔街分析师能对海盗船如此感兴趣，所以对于那些一直在等待股票涨到 37 美元，现在又涨到 41 美元的人来说，这些人不会成为买家。他们是卖家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们认为模因正在伤害对冲基金，但事实上它们是对冲基金的工具，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p> Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair 股价在周一早盘交易中上涨 19.3%，易手至每股 38.60 美元，开盘时触及盘中高点 42.97 美元，此举将该股今年迄今的涨幅提升至 12% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Corsair 公布第一季度盈利 8000 万美元，收入为 5.29 亿美元，这得益于其游戏和外围设备业务的激增增长，销售额比去年增长了 132%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCorsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p><p><blockquote>海盗船游戏（<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report 周一股价飙升，这家游戏和内容设备制造商似乎将其名字添加到最受欢迎的模因股票名单中。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>theYolosocks.livewebsite 跟踪 Reddit 的 r/wallstreetbets 聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据显示，Corsair 是用户讨论次数第二多的股票，从之前的第 11 名上升，在过去 24 小时内提及次数超过 860 次。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TheStreet 创始人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 警告说，对于像 Corsair 这样基本面稳健的股票来说，如此大幅上涨可能会吸引这些水平的大规模卖家。</blockquote></p><p> \"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默在接受 CNBC 的 Squawk on The Street 节目采访时表示：“Corsair 是我非常喜欢的一家公司，因为它基本上是罗技的升级版，而罗技一直是一只很棒的股票。”“他们拥有在电子竞技中占据主导地位所需的高性能设备，我认为电子竞技将会继续存在。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p><p><blockquote>“克莱默说：”我不知道为什么'迷因'人会垄断他们玩的任何东西。“没有一个华尔街分析师能对海盗船如此感兴趣，所以对于那些一直在等待股票涨到 37 美元，现在又涨到 41 美元的人来说，这些人不会成为买家。他们是卖家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们认为模因正在伤害对冲基金，但事实上它们是对冲基金的工具，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p> Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair 股价在周一早盘交易中上涨 19.3%，易手至每股 38.60 美元，开盘时触及盘中高点 42.97 美元，此举将该股今年迄今的涨幅提升至 12% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Corsair 公布第一季度盈利 8000 万美元，收入为 5.29 亿美元，这得益于其游戏和外围设备业务的激增增长，销售额比去年增长了 132%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers\">thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117313016","content_text":"Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.\nTheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\n\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"\n\"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said. \"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"\n\"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.\nCorsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.\nLast month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167809502,"gmtCreate":1624255768306,"gmtModify":1634008793243,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581855796550345","authorIdStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167809502","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167800729,"gmtCreate":1624255735261,"gmtModify":1634008793835,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581855796550345","authorIdStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no&nbsp;","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167800729","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":122709628,"gmtCreate":1624631917964,"gmtModify":1633950276790,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🤬","listText":"🤬","text":"🤬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122709628","repostId":"1198438276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123891359,"gmtCreate":1624414583771,"gmtModify":1634006450215,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123891359","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167809502,"gmtCreate":1624255768306,"gmtModify":1634008793243,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167809502","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167800729,"gmtCreate":1624255735261,"gmtModify":1634008793835,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no&nbsp;","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167800729","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125517259,"gmtCreate":1624680141371,"gmtModify":1633949653815,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125517259","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120718888,"gmtCreate":1624337205644,"gmtModify":1634007571371,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Shy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Shy]&nbsp;","text":"[Shy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120718888","repostId":"2145032477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167803285,"gmtCreate":1624255798847,"gmtModify":1634008792874,"author":{"id":"3581855796550345","authorId":"3581855796550345","name":"Huuuuu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581855796550345","idStr":"3581855796550345"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167803285","repostId":"1117313016","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117313016","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623680913,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117313016?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117313016","media":"thestreet","summary":"Corsair Gaming  -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program","content":"<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p><p><blockquote>海盗船游戏（<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report 周一股价飙升，这家游戏和内容设备制造商似乎将其名字添加到最受欢迎的模因股票名单中。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>theYolosocks.livewebsite 跟踪 Reddit 的 r/wallstreetbets 聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据显示，Corsair 是用户讨论次数第二多的股票，从之前的第 11 名上升，在过去 24 小时内提及次数超过 860 次。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TheStreet 创始人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 警告说，对于像 Corsair 这样基本面稳健的股票来说，如此大幅上涨可能会吸引这些水平的大规模卖家。</blockquote></p><p> \"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默在接受 CNBC 的 Squawk on The Street 节目采访时表示：“Corsair 是我非常喜欢的一家公司，因为它基本上是罗技的升级版，而罗技一直是一只很棒的股票。”“他们拥有在电子竞技中占据主导地位所需的高性能设备，我认为电子竞技将会继续存在。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p><p><blockquote>“克莱默说：”我不知道为什么'迷因'人会垄断他们玩的任何东西。“没有一个华尔街分析师能对海盗船如此感兴趣，所以对于那些一直在等待股票涨到 37 美元，现在又涨到 41 美元的人来说，这些人不会成为买家。他们是卖家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们认为模因正在伤害对冲基金，但事实上它们是对冲基金的工具，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p> Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair 股价在周一早盘交易中上涨 19.3%，易手至每股 38.60 美元，开盘时触及盘中高点 42.97 美元，此举将该股今年迄今的涨幅提升至 12% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Corsair 公布第一季度盈利 8000 万美元，收入为 5.29 亿美元，这得益于其游戏和外围设备业务的激增增长，销售额比去年增长了 132%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCorsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在模因集会中激增；吉姆·克莱默警告高层卖家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p><p><blockquote>海盗船游戏（<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report 周一股价飙升，这家游戏和内容设备制造商似乎将其名字添加到最受欢迎的模因股票名单中。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>theYolosocks.livewebsite 跟踪 Reddit 的 r/wallstreetbets 聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据显示，Corsair 是用户讨论次数第二多的股票，从之前的第 11 名上升，在过去 24 小时内提及次数超过 860 次。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TheStreet 创始人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 警告说，对于像 Corsair 这样基本面稳健的股票来说，如此大幅上涨可能会吸引这些水平的大规模卖家。</blockquote></p><p> \"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默在接受 CNBC 的 Squawk on The Street 节目采访时表示：“Corsair 是我非常喜欢的一家公司，因为它基本上是罗技的升级版，而罗技一直是一只很棒的股票。”“他们拥有在电子竞技中占据主导地位所需的高性能设备，我认为电子竞技将会继续存在。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p><p><blockquote>“克莱默说：”我不知道为什么'迷因'人会垄断他们玩的任何东西。“没有一个华尔街分析师能对海盗船如此感兴趣，所以对于那些一直在等待股票涨到 37 美元，现在又涨到 41 美元的人来说，这些人不会成为买家。他们是卖家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们认为模因正在伤害对冲基金，但事实上它们是对冲基金的工具，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p> Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair 股价在周一早盘交易中上涨 19.3%，易手至每股 38.60 美元，开盘时触及盘中高点 42.97 美元，此举将该股今年迄今的涨幅提升至 12% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Corsair 公布第一季度盈利 8000 万美元，收入为 5.29 亿美元，这得益于其游戏和外围设备业务的激增增长，销售额比去年增长了 132%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers\">thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117313016","content_text":"Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.\nTheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\n\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"\n\"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said. \"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"\n\"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.\nCorsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.\nLast month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}