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Johnleong

Johnleong

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2021-09-16

Great

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2021-07-22

Continue go higher?

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2021-07-19

Beware

Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>

2021-10-14

$Plug Power(PLUG)$finally moving. What is the target price

2021-10-07

Nice

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2021-07-04

Great

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2021-07-02

Wait n see

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2021-07-16

Wow

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2021-07-13

Soon

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2021-07-03

Wait

Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>

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Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流动数据和期权活动都表明，大大小小的投资者都异常看好。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，道琼斯工业平均指数在 2021 年健康上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你这件事时，是时候用这种思维方式去寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在抛售时，你应该双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经支付了巨大的红利来留在牛群中。在这一年里，备忘录股票飙升、木材价格创下历史新高，债券市场在通胀上升的情况下反弹，这是对屡试不爽的最新背离。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>“Sundial Capital Research 总裁 Jason Goepfert 说：”我们已经举手有一段时间了。“不管出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，而这些指标以前有着非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson &amp; Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始出现情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪在很大程度上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自 1951 年以来的数据，3 月底美国人的股票配置比例接近 60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫时期 61.7% 的历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售经纪公司 E*Trade 在 7 月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至 65%。此外，备受关注的股票看跌看涨期权比率（衡量对股票下注的看跌期权与看涨期权的数量）在今年早些时候创下了自 2000 年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&amp;P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年标普500创下 39 项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难猜测。最值得注意的是，刺激政策和宽松货币政策不同寻常地强有力地结合在一起，让投资者现金充裕，而稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易员提供了足够的动力和机会来忽略市场情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（衡量有多少股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约 49% 的股票交易价格高于 50 天移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前相比出现了急剧逆转，当时该指标达到了 90% 以上。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）认为，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消。“但是，当宽度开始恶化，市场仍在历史高点或接近历史高点时，市场情绪状况没有减弱，这时麻烦就真正酝酿出来了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And&nbsp;while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，情绪可能会在很长一段时间内保持高涨，就像 20 世纪 90 年代末一样。尽管主要股指有所上涨，但部分过剩股票却失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到大规模的回撤--在加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非盈利科技公司和备忘录股票方面。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&amp;P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于 Ned Davis Research 数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500往往会在随后几年产生适度的平均回报。例如，当家庭股票配置上升到 54.6% 或更高时--就像互联网泡沫时期和 2007-09 年经济衰退前几年那样--标普500未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在 29% 左右或更低时，基准指数未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特条件可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“戈普弗特先生说：”市场只是在做自己的事情。“情况发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激措施，还是年轻投资者的代际更迭。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecord Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>股市疯狂牛市的最新受害者是华尔街的格言，即投资者情绪高涨是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流动数据和期权活动都表明，大大小小的投资者都异常看好。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，道琼斯工业平均指数在 2021 年健康上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你这件事时，是时候用这种思维方式去寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在抛售时，你应该双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经支付了巨大的红利来留在牛群中。在这一年里，备忘录股票飙升、木材价格创下历史新高，债券市场在通胀上升的情况下反弹，这是对屡试不爽的最新背离。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>“Sundial Capital Research 总裁 Jason Goepfert 说：”我们已经举手有一段时间了。“不管出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，而这些指标以前有着非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson &amp; Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始出现情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪在很大程度上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自 1951 年以来的数据，3 月底美国人的股票配置比例接近 60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫时期 61.7% 的历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售经纪公司 E*Trade 在 7 月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至 65%。此外，备受关注的股票看跌看涨期权比率（衡量对股票下注的看跌期权与看涨期权的数量）在今年早些时候创下了自 2000 年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&amp;P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年标普500创下 39 项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难猜测。最值得注意的是，刺激政策和宽松货币政策不同寻常地强有力地结合在一起，让投资者现金充裕，而稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易员提供了足够的动力和机会来忽略市场情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（衡量有多少股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约 49% 的股票交易价格高于 50 天移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前相比出现了急剧逆转，当时该指标达到了 90% 以上。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）认为，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消。“但是，当宽度开始恶化，市场仍在历史高点或接近历史高点时，市场情绪状况没有减弱，这时麻烦就真正酝酿出来了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And&nbsp;while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，情绪可能会在很长一段时间内保持高涨，就像 20 世纪 90 年代末一样。尽管主要股指有所上涨，但部分过剩股票却失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到大规模的回撤--在加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非盈利科技公司和备忘录股票方面。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&amp;P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于 Ned Davis Research 数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500往往会在随后几年产生适度的平均回报。例如，当家庭股票配置上升到 54.6% 或更高时--就像互联网泡沫时期和 2007-09 年经济衰退前几年那样--标普500未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在 29% 左右或更低时，基准指数未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特条件可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“戈普弗特先生说：”市场只是在做自己的事情。“情况发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激措施，还是年轻投资者的代际更迭。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123426523","content_text":"The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.\nThroughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.\nAnalysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.\nBut for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.\n“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”\nIn the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson & Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.\nThey will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.\nAmericans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.\nA July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.\nThe source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.\nAnalysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.\nRecently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.\nAs of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.\n“Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”\nBut sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.\n“In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.\nAccording a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.\nIn contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.\nEven so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.\n“Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UAL":0.9,"JNJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179435356,"gmtCreate":1626570547875,"gmtModify":1631891504660,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179435356","repostId":"2152812616","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152812616","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626559168,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2152812616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 05:59","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"U.S. administers 337.24 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines - CDC<blockquote>美国接种了 3.3724 亿剂 COVID-19 疫苗 - CDC</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152812616","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 17 (Reuters) - The United States has administered 337,239,448 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the","content":"<p><html><body>July 17 (Reuters) - The United States has administered 337,239,448 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Saturday morning and distributed 390,100,705 doses, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月17日 - 美国疾病控制和预防中心周六表示，截至周六上午，美国已在该国接种了337,239,448剂新冠肺炎疫苗，并分发了390,100,705剂。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   Those figures are up from the 336,604,158 doses the CDC said had gone into arms by Friday, out of 389,359,835 doses delivered.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字高于疾病预防控制中心称截至周五已投入使用的 336,604,158 剂疫苗，而交付的剂量为 389,359,835 剂。</blockquote></p><p>   The agency said 185,765,452 people had received at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> dose while 160,994,035 people were fully vaccinated as of Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>该机构表示，已有 185,765,452 人接受了至少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>截至周六，已有160,994,035人完全接种了疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>   The CDC tally includes two-dose vaccines from Moderna</p><p><blockquote>疾病预防控制中心的统计包括 Moderna 的两剂疫苗</blockquote></p><p>  and Pfizer/BioNTech    , as well as Johnson &amp; Johnson's    one-shot vaccine as of 6:00 a.m. ET on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间周六上午 6:00，辉瑞/BioNTech 以及强生公司的一针疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> (Editing by Richard Chang)</p><p><blockquote>（理查德·张编辑）</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. administers 337.24 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines - CDC<blockquote>美国接种了 3.3724 亿剂 COVID-19 疫苗 - CDC</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. administers 337.24 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines - CDC<blockquote>美国接种了 3.3724 亿剂 COVID-19 疫苗 - CDC</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 05:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>July 17 (Reuters) - The United States has administered 337,239,448 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Saturday morning and distributed 390,100,705 doses, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月17日 - 美国疾病控制和预防中心周六表示，截至周六上午，美国已在该国接种了337,239,448剂新冠肺炎疫苗，并分发了390,100,705剂。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   Those figures are up from the 336,604,158 doses the CDC said had gone into arms by Friday, out of 389,359,835 doses delivered.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字高于疾病预防控制中心称截至周五已投入使用的 336,604,158 剂疫苗，而交付的剂量为 389,359,835 剂。</blockquote></p><p>   The agency said 185,765,452 people had received at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> dose while 160,994,035 people were fully vaccinated as of Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>该机构表示，已有 185,765,452 人接受了至少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>截至周六，已有160,994,035人完全接种了疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>   The CDC tally includes two-dose vaccines from Moderna</p><p><blockquote>疾病预防控制中心的统计包括 Moderna 的两剂疫苗</blockquote></p><p>  and Pfizer/BioNTech    , as well as Johnson &amp; Johnson's    one-shot vaccine as of 6:00 a.m. ET on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间周六上午 6:00，辉瑞/BioNTech 以及强生公司的一针疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> (Editing by Richard Chang)</p><p><blockquote>（理查德·张编辑）</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","JNJ":"强生","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152812616","content_text":"July 17 (Reuters) - The United States has administered 337,239,448 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Saturday morning and distributed 390,100,705 doses, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday.   Those figures are up from the 336,604,158 doses the CDC said had gone into arms by Friday, out of 389,359,835 doses delivered.   The agency said 185,765,452 people had received at least one dose while 160,994,035 people were fully vaccinated as of Saturday.   The CDC tally includes two-dose vaccines from Moderna  and Pfizer/BioNTech    , as well as Johnson & Johnson's    one-shot vaccine as of 6:00 a.m. ET on Saturday. (Editing by Richard Chang)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"JNJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179385588,"gmtCreate":1626486785244,"gmtModify":1631891504672,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179385588","repostId":"2152068390","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152068390","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1626467099,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2152068390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-17 04:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FDA Says Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix With Nitrosamine Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit<blockquote>FDA 表示不会反对在临时可接受摄入量限值以下分发含有亚硝胺的 Chantix</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152068390","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nit","content":"<p><html><body>July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nitrosamine Below The Interim Acceptable Intake Limit.Fda - Will Not Object To Distribution Of Varenicline Tablets With N-Nitroso-Varenicline Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit Of 185 Ng Per Day.Fda - Continues To Evaluate Data And May Update The Interim Acceptable Limit Of Nitrosamine In Varenicline Tablets In The Future.Further Company Coverage: Pfe.N. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月16日 - 美国Fda：：Fda不会反对将含有亚硝胺的Chantix（伐尼克兰）分发到低于临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-不会反对将含有N-亚硝基-伐尼克兰的伐尼克兰片分发到低于每天185 Ng的临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-继续评估数据，未来可能会更新伐尼克兰片中亚硝胺的临时可接受限值。进一步的公司报道：Pfe.N。((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;))</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA Says Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix With Nitrosamine Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit<blockquote>FDA 表示不会反对在临时可接受摄入量限值以下分发含有亚硝胺的 Chantix</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA Says Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix With Nitrosamine Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit<blockquote>FDA 表示不会反对在临时可接受摄入量限值以下分发含有亚硝胺的 Chantix</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-17 04:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nitrosamine Below The Interim Acceptable Intake Limit.Fda - Will Not Object To Distribution Of Varenicline Tablets With N-Nitroso-Varenicline Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit Of 185 Ng Per Day.Fda - Continues To Evaluate Data And May Update The Interim Acceptable Limit Of Nitrosamine In Varenicline Tablets In The Future.Further Company Coverage: Pfe.N. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月16日 - 美国Fda：：Fda不会反对将含有亚硝胺的Chantix（伐尼克兰）分发到低于临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-不会反对将含有N-亚硝基-伐尼克兰的伐尼克兰片分发到低于每天185 Ng的临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-继续评估数据，未来可能会更新伐尼克兰片中亚硝胺的临时可接受限值。进一步的公司报道：Pfe.N。((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;))</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152068390","content_text":"July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nitrosamine Below The Interim Acceptable Intake Limit.Fda - Will Not Object To Distribution Of Varenicline Tablets With N-Nitroso-Varenicline Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit Of 185 Ng Per Day.Fda - Continues To Evaluate Data And May Update The Interim Acceptable Limit Of Nitrosamine In Varenicline Tablets In The Future.Further Company Coverage: Pfe.N. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179385931,"gmtCreate":1626486763323,"gmtModify":1631891504687,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179385931","repostId":"2152068390","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152068390","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1626467099,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2152068390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-17 04:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FDA Says Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix With Nitrosamine Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit<blockquote>FDA 表示不会反对在临时可接受摄入量限值以下分发含有亚硝胺的 Chantix</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152068390","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nit","content":"<p><html><body>July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nitrosamine Below The Interim Acceptable Intake Limit.Fda - Will Not Object To Distribution Of Varenicline Tablets With N-Nitroso-Varenicline Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit Of 185 Ng Per Day.Fda - Continues To Evaluate Data And May Update The Interim Acceptable Limit Of Nitrosamine In Varenicline Tablets In The Future.Further Company Coverage: Pfe.N. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月16日 - 美国Fda：：Fda不会反对将含有亚硝胺的Chantix（伐尼克兰）分发到低于临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-不会反对将含有N-亚硝基-伐尼克兰的伐尼克兰片分发到低于每天185 Ng的临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-继续评估数据，未来可能会更新伐尼克兰片中亚硝胺的临时可接受限值。进一步的公司报道：Pfe.N。((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;))</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA Says Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix With Nitrosamine Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit<blockquote>FDA 表示不会反对在临时可接受摄入量限值以下分发含有亚硝胺的 Chantix</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA Says Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix With Nitrosamine Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit<blockquote>FDA 表示不会反对在临时可接受摄入量限值以下分发含有亚硝胺的 Chantix</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-17 04:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nitrosamine Below The Interim Acceptable Intake Limit.Fda - Will Not Object To Distribution Of Varenicline Tablets With N-Nitroso-Varenicline Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit Of 185 Ng Per Day.Fda - Continues To Evaluate Data And May Update The Interim Acceptable Limit Of Nitrosamine In Varenicline Tablets In The Future.Further Company Coverage: Pfe.N. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月16日 - 美国Fda：：Fda不会反对将含有亚硝胺的Chantix（伐尼克兰）分发到低于临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-不会反对将含有N-亚硝基-伐尼克兰的伐尼克兰片分发到低于每天185 Ng的临时可接受摄入量限值。Fda-继续评估数据，未来可能会更新伐尼克兰片中亚硝胺的临时可接受限值。进一步的公司报道：Pfe.N。((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;))</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152068390","content_text":"July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Fda: :Fda Will Not Object To Distribution Of Chantix (Varenicline) With Nitrosamine Below The Interim Acceptable Intake Limit.Fda - Will Not Object To Distribution Of Varenicline Tablets With N-Nitroso-Varenicline Below Interim Acceptable Intake Limit Of 185 Ng Per Day.Fda - Continues To Evaluate Data And May Update The Interim Acceptable Limit Of Nitrosamine In Varenicline Tablets In The Future.Further Company Coverage: Pfe.N. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170054230,"gmtCreate":1626396961420,"gmtModify":1631891504707,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170054230","repostId":"1107139193","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145676806,"gmtCreate":1626223515505,"gmtModify":1631891504715,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145676806","repostId":"1108602365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142128713,"gmtCreate":1626137537032,"gmtModify":1631891504723,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Soon","listText":"Soon","text":"Soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142128713","repostId":"1144812338","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146375666,"gmtCreate":1626056355355,"gmtModify":1631892410212,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146375666","repostId":"1131677097","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148499029,"gmtCreate":1625999666461,"gmtModify":1631892410214,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148499029","repostId":"2150309792","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2150309792","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625907885,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2150309792?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 17:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EU delivers enough doses to vaccinate 70% adults, von der Leyen says<blockquote>冯德莱恩表示，欧盟提供的剂量足以为 70% 的成年人接种疫苗</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150309792","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 10 (Reuters) - The European Union $(EU)$ has delivered enough coronavirus vaccine doses to memb","content":"<p><html><body>July 10 (Reuters) - The European Union <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EU\">$(EU)$</a> has delivered enough coronavirus vaccine doses to member states to vaccinate at least 70% of adults,  European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>7 月 10 日（路透社）——欧盟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EU\">$(欧盟)$</a>欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在一份声明中表示，已向成员国提供了足够剂量的冠状病毒疫苗，为至少 70% 的成年人接种疫苗。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   Von der Leyen urged the EU countries to increase vaccinations and said that about 500 million doses would be distributed across the union by Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>冯德莱恩敦促欧盟国家增加疫苗接种，并表示到周日将在整个欧盟分发约5亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Shubham Kalia; Editing by Toby Chopra)</p><p><blockquote>（舒巴姆·卡利亚报道；托比·乔普拉编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((Shubham.Kalia@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（Shubham.Kalia@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EU delivers enough doses to vaccinate 70% adults, von der Leyen says<blockquote>冯德莱恩表示，欧盟提供的剂量足以为 70% 的成年人接种疫苗</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEU delivers enough doses to vaccinate 70% adults, von der Leyen says<blockquote>冯德莱恩表示，欧盟提供的剂量足以为 70% 的成年人接种疫苗</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-10 17:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>July 10 (Reuters) - The European Union <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EU\">$(EU)$</a> has delivered enough coronavirus vaccine doses to member states to vaccinate at least 70% of adults,  European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>7 月 10 日（路透社）——欧盟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EU\">$(欧盟)$</a>欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在一份声明中表示，已向成员国提供了足够剂量的冠状病毒疫苗，为至少 70% 的成年人接种疫苗。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   Von der Leyen urged the EU countries to increase vaccinations and said that about 500 million doses would be distributed across the union by Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>冯德莱恩敦促欧盟国家增加疫苗接种，并表示到周日将在整个欧盟分发约5亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Shubham Kalia; Editing by Toby Chopra)</p><p><blockquote>（舒巴姆·卡利亚报道；托比·乔普拉编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((Shubham.Kalia@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（Shubham.Kalia@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150309792","content_text":"July 10 (Reuters) - The European Union $(EU)$ has delivered enough coronavirus vaccine doses to member states to vaccinate at least 70% of adults,  European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.   Von der Leyen urged the EU countries to increase vaccinations and said that about 500 million doses would be distributed across the union by Sunday. (Reporting by Shubham Kalia; Editing by Toby Chopra)((Shubham.Kalia@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154399579,"gmtCreate":1625476299391,"gmtModify":1631892410219,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154399579","repostId":"2149538023","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155063823,"gmtCreate":1625364320562,"gmtModify":1631892410222,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155063823","repostId":"1189605893","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152523558,"gmtCreate":1625315546774,"gmtModify":1631892410227,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wait","listText":"Wait","text":"Wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152523558","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让包括苏兹-奥曼（Suze Orman）在内的投资专家感到担忧，她甚至表示自己现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一个著名指标——被称为巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对这种担忧从何而来的解释，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏兹·奥曼怎么想？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>媒体打孔/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>苏兹·奥曼几十年来一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼在 CNBC 的一段视频中说：”我不喜欢我现在在市场上看到的情况。“经济形势很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨”。</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样简单，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激检查仍在进行中，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍然担心冠状病毒会带来什么——尤其是在新变种不断涌现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得自从上次撞车以来，已经太久了，不能再在这个高度停留太久了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”这让我再次想起了 2000 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）经常用来评估市场的一个指标，以他的名字命名，这个指标已经出现了足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑它是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但巴菲特指标（衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出之比的指标）继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士不禁要问，这是否是我们即将迎来一场硬着陆的征兆。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为撞车做好准备Freedomz / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等备受关注的股票感到非常不安，部分原因是它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面。“你只想让这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金是在 401(k) 或 IRA 计划中用于退休投资。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年都不打算动用这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低价买入。这样，您的美元现在将走得更远，为未来 20、30 或 40 年的增长留下充足的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡特延 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然奥曼更喜欢低价买入，但她并不建议您在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的起伏之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济衰退欢呼可能是你获得更多利润丰厚投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在 2007 年和 2008 年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费买到东西。“现在看看 15 年后的他们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议您制定美元成本平均策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，您都要定期等额投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易在目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中实现。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至还有一些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的备用零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助抵御市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过对许多不同类型资产和经济部门的投资来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法可以让你购买一家大牌公司的股份，否则你将买不起这部分股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在不受欢迎的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的任何人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼说：”越早开始，你的钱就越多。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该非常高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的股票”。</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股份越多，20 年、40 年、50 年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在 CNBC 视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否迫在眉睫，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择罗斯账户，无论是 401(k) 还是 IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>当您从退休账户中提取资金时，这将帮助您避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的缴款是在税后进行的。另一方面，传统的 IRA 在您供款时无需缴税，因此您最终会在以后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你发现你需要更多的指导，与专业的财务顾问合作，可以帮助你指出正确的方向，这样你就可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离航向或过度纠正时，你将牢牢掌握在驾驶座上，计划着你的夕阳西下。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让包括苏兹-奥曼（Suze Orman）在内的投资专家感到担忧，她甚至表示自己现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一个著名指标——被称为巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对这种担忧从何而来的解释，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏兹·奥曼怎么想？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>媒体打孔/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>苏兹·奥曼几十年来一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼在 CNBC 的一段视频中说：”我不喜欢我现在在市场上看到的情况。“经济形势很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨”。</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样简单，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激检查仍在进行中，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍然担心冠状病毒会带来什么——尤其是在新变种不断涌现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得自从上次撞车以来，已经太久了，不能再在这个高度停留太久了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”这让我再次想起了 2000 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）经常用来评估市场的一个指标，以他的名字命名，这个指标已经出现了足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑它是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但巴菲特指标（衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出之比的指标）继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士不禁要问，这是否是我们即将迎来一场硬着陆的征兆。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为撞车做好准备Freedomz / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等备受关注的股票感到非常不安，部分原因是它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面。“你只想让这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金是在 401(k) 或 IRA 计划中用于退休投资。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年都不打算动用这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低价买入。这样，您的美元现在将走得更远，为未来 20、30 或 40 年的增长留下充足的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡特延 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然奥曼更喜欢低价买入，但她并不建议您在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的起伏之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济衰退欢呼可能是你获得更多利润丰厚投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在 2007 年和 2008 年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费买到东西。“现在看看 15 年后的他们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议您制定美元成本平均策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，您都要定期等额投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易在目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中实现。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至还有一些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的备用零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助抵御市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过对许多不同类型资产和经济部门的投资来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法可以让你购买一家大牌公司的股份，否则你将买不起这部分股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在不受欢迎的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的任何人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼说：”越早开始，你的钱就越多。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该非常高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的股票”。</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股份越多，20 年、40 年、50 年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在 CNBC 视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否迫在眉睫，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择罗斯账户，无论是 401(k) 还是 IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>当您从退休账户中提取资金时，这将帮助您避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的缴款是在税后进行的。另一方面，传统的 IRA 在您供款时无需缴税，因此您最终会在以后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你发现你需要更多的指导，与专业的财务顾问合作，可以帮助你指出正确的方向，这样你就可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离航向或过度纠正时，你将牢牢掌握在驾驶座上，计划着你的夕阳西下。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152322752,"gmtCreate":1625271803176,"gmtModify":1631892410237,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thank you","listText":"Thank you","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152322752","repostId":"1149622010","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152322364,"gmtCreate":1625271764258,"gmtModify":1631892410241,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152322364","repostId":"1120590567","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120590567","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625238577,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120590567?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120590567","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.\nThe Chinese EV maker returned to triple-d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.</li>  <li>The Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.</li>  <li>NIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ca537373e278344c3447309dd586ea\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来 6 月份的交付量增长速度令人印象深刻。</li><li>在蔚来旗舰车型 ES6 同比强劲增长的帮助下，这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月的交付量恢复了三位数增长。</li><li>蔚来将在2021年下半年克服生产挫折并提高产量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）正在从大流行导致的芯片供应短缺中迅速反弹，电动汽车交付量激增就是最好的证明。6 月份令人印象深刻的交付率表明市场可能低估了蔚来汽车的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping volumes are accelerating</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发货量正在加速</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to&nbsp;reduce NIO's factory output&nbsp;from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球芯片和电池供应短缺，蔚来预计第二季度产量将下降。此次短缺将使蔚来汽车的工厂产量从每月 10,000 辆减少到 7,500 辆。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体供应短缺源于新冠肺炎疫情。随着越来越多的人开始在家工作，消费电子行业对半导体需求的急剧增加，恰逢汽车行业芯片需求的反弹速度快于预期，导致全球半导体短缺，从而抑制了从美国到中国的汽车产量。蔚来汽车对工厂产量下降的指导降低了交付预期，但恢复三位数增长率现在可能会再次推高蔚来汽车的股价。</blockquote></p><p> While the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries&nbsp;were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>虽然产量暂时下降对蔚来来说是一个挫折，但这家电动汽车制造商似乎已经准备好反弹。蔚来汽车 6 月份的交付量令人印象深刻，市场可能低估了蔚来汽车今年电动汽车交付量增长三位数的能力。这家中国电动汽车制造商在 6 月份共交付了 8,083 辆汽车，使 21 年第二季度的电动汽车总数达到 21,896 辆，包括所有车型……蔚来的 5 座电动 SUV ES6、5 座电动轿跑车 SUV EC6 和 6 座或 7 座电动 SUV ES8。蔚来汽车第二季度的月度和季度交付总量创下历史新高，这家电动汽车制造商将在今年剩余时间内创下新纪录。6 月份总交付量同比增长 116%，其中 ES6 车型增幅最大。ES6 类别同比增长 52%。21 年第二季度的总交付量为 21,896 辆，其中大部分是 ES6，同比增长 112%……尽管第二季度出现了生产问题。由于该车型在去年第二季度之后才开始交付，因此没有 EC6 的可比数据。蔚来6月份交付报告中最引人注目的是，与上个月相比，出货量增长正在加速，这可能被视为蔚来交付能力被低估的迹象。5月份，蔚来交付了6,711辆汽车，同比增长率高达95%。6 月份强劲的交付数据可能表明蔚来的生产问题正在缓解，蔚来已准备好恢复满负荷产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af76b71f8259337d534fb29b1a6a8c4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"129\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的年产能为 15 万辆汽车，但由于半导体短缺，这家电动汽车制造商并未充分利用这一产能。一旦芯片短缺问题得到缓解（预计下半年将会出现这种情况），我们应该会看到蔚来的工厂产量和交付量稳步增长。增长的速度将较少取决于需求，而是取决于供应短缺的严重程度。半导体短缺是影响蔚来汽车剩余两个季度交付成功的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> The market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场非常有弹性，对零排放乘用车的需求不会因生产延迟而消失，这对中国电动汽车制造商来说可能是一种奢侈品问题。蔚来汽车今年在中国的电动汽车销量激增，但随着行业解决供应问题，下半年可能会出现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7579fc2abe7ca63887e68a9256b54cb3\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered&nbsp;6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>另一家中国电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车（XPEV）2021年6月交付了6,565辆智能电动汽车，同比增长617%。小鹏汽车上个月售出了 4,730 辆电动运动轿车和 1,835 辆紧凑型 SUV，比以往任何时候都多。2021 年第二季度，小鹏汽车交付量为 17,398 辆，同比增长 439%。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在中国的电动汽车销量也在飙升，显示出对电动汽车的强劲需求和客户接受度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cd25b4fd64f193bc91dabbee99e54\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NIO FY 2021 delivery projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来 2021 财年交付预测</b></blockquote></p><p> My estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.</p><p><blockquote>我对 2021 年第三季度和 2021 年第四季度交付量的估计如下图所示，并假设蔚来 ES6 的交付能力有所增强，并且到年底季度产量将持续增长至 30,000 辆。到年底实现约 30,000 辆汽车的季度产量是现实的，蔚来的运营仍将比满负荷产能低 20%。计算第一季度和第二季度的交付总量以及我对第三季度和第四季度的估计，2021 财年的总交付潜力为 97,056 辆（所有三种车型），如果出货量在今年最后两个季度继续强劲增长，蔚来甚至可能能够突破 100,000 辆大关。蔚来在 2020 年总共交付了 43,728 辆汽车，因此 2021 年的交付量预计为 97,056 辆，意味着同比增长 122%。在2021年的前六个月，蔚来已经交付了41,956辆，占我2021财年交付估计的43%。随着下半年生产恢复正常，蔚来应该能够实现三位数的同比交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb01be329ab1b6d9a6097e74a1d5b250\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales growth is cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来汽车的销量增长很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> EV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商并不便宜，这是因为市场最看重销售和交付增长。蔚来的市盈率为 9.4，估值乘数系数与其他电动汽车制造商没有太大区别。与市盈率为 9.9 的特斯拉 (TSLA) 相比，蔚来具有更大的重估潜力，因为它在更大的市场运营且收入基础较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e0cee1726c807b6b7d04f4f4e44f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺仍然是蔚来的主要风险因素，并将对蔚来第三季度和第四季度的产量产生影响……这将低于潜力。随着下半年情况慢慢恢复正常，蔚来应该能够提高工厂产量和交付量。虽然交付量增长率受到蔚来运营以外因素的影响，但它们也代表着蔚来给市场带来惊喜的巨大机会。好于预期的增长率和快速恢复满产可能会为股价升值创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年的增长速度可能会快于预期，因为芯片供应短缺的缓解以及下半年的强劲反弹可能会推动蔚来达到10万个年度交付的关键里程碑。2021 年电动汽车需求依然强劲，而中国电动汽车制造商正在扼杀这一需求。我相信，随着下半年工厂产量正常化，2021 年年度交付量可能会同比增长 120%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 23:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.</li>  <li>The Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.</li>  <li>NIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ca537373e278344c3447309dd586ea\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来 6 月份的交付量增长速度令人印象深刻。</li><li>在蔚来旗舰车型 ES6 同比强劲增长的帮助下，这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月的交付量恢复了三位数增长。</li><li>蔚来将在2021年下半年克服生产挫折并提高产量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）正在从大流行导致的芯片供应短缺中迅速反弹，电动汽车交付量激增就是最好的证明。6 月份令人印象深刻的交付率表明市场可能低估了蔚来汽车的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping volumes are accelerating</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发货量正在加速</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to&nbsp;reduce NIO's factory output&nbsp;from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球芯片和电池供应短缺，蔚来预计第二季度产量将下降。此次短缺将使蔚来汽车的工厂产量从每月 10,000 辆减少到 7,500 辆。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体供应短缺源于新冠肺炎疫情。随着越来越多的人开始在家工作，消费电子行业对半导体需求的急剧增加，恰逢汽车行业芯片需求的反弹速度快于预期，导致全球半导体短缺，从而抑制了从美国到中国的汽车产量。蔚来汽车对工厂产量下降的指导降低了交付预期，但恢复三位数增长率现在可能会再次推高蔚来汽车的股价。</blockquote></p><p> While the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries&nbsp;were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>虽然产量暂时下降对蔚来来说是一个挫折，但这家电动汽车制造商似乎已经准备好反弹。蔚来汽车 6 月份的交付量令人印象深刻，市场可能低估了蔚来汽车今年电动汽车交付量增长三位数的能力。这家中国电动汽车制造商在 6 月份共交付了 8,083 辆汽车，使 21 年第二季度的电动汽车总数达到 21,896 辆，包括所有车型……蔚来的 5 座电动 SUV ES6、5 座电动轿跑车 SUV EC6 和 6 座或 7 座电动 SUV ES8。蔚来汽车第二季度的月度和季度交付总量创下历史新高，这家电动汽车制造商将在今年剩余时间内创下新纪录。6 月份总交付量同比增长 116%，其中 ES6 车型增幅最大。ES6 类别同比增长 52%。21 年第二季度的总交付量为 21,896 辆，其中大部分是 ES6，同比增长 112%……尽管第二季度出现了生产问题。由于该车型在去年第二季度之后才开始交付，因此没有 EC6 的可比数据。蔚来6月份交付报告中最引人注目的是，与上个月相比，出货量增长正在加速，这可能被视为蔚来交付能力被低估的迹象。5月份，蔚来交付了6,711辆汽车，同比增长率高达95%。6 月份强劲的交付数据可能表明蔚来的生产问题正在缓解，蔚来已准备好恢复满负荷产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af76b71f8259337d534fb29b1a6a8c4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"129\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的年产能为 15 万辆汽车，但由于半导体短缺，这家电动汽车制造商并未充分利用这一产能。一旦芯片短缺问题得到缓解（预计下半年将会出现这种情况），我们应该会看到蔚来的工厂产量和交付量稳步增长。增长的速度将较少取决于需求，而是取决于供应短缺的严重程度。半导体短缺是影响蔚来汽车剩余两个季度交付成功的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> The market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场非常有弹性，对零排放乘用车的需求不会因生产延迟而消失，这对中国电动汽车制造商来说可能是一种奢侈品问题。蔚来汽车今年在中国的电动汽车销量激增，但随着行业解决供应问题，下半年可能会出现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7579fc2abe7ca63887e68a9256b54cb3\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered&nbsp;6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>另一家中国电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车（XPEV）2021年6月交付了6,565辆智能电动汽车，同比增长617%。小鹏汽车上个月售出了 4,730 辆电动运动轿车和 1,835 辆紧凑型 SUV，比以往任何时候都多。2021 年第二季度，小鹏汽车交付量为 17,398 辆，同比增长 439%。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在中国的电动汽车销量也在飙升，显示出对电动汽车的强劲需求和客户接受度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cd25b4fd64f193bc91dabbee99e54\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NIO FY 2021 delivery projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来 2021 财年交付预测</b></blockquote></p><p> My estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.</p><p><blockquote>我对 2021 年第三季度和 2021 年第四季度交付量的估计如下图所示，并假设蔚来 ES6 的交付能力有所增强，并且到年底季度产量将持续增长至 30,000 辆。到年底实现约 30,000 辆汽车的季度产量是现实的，蔚来的运营仍将比满负荷产能低 20%。计算第一季度和第二季度的交付总量以及我对第三季度和第四季度的估计，2021 财年的总交付潜力为 97,056 辆（所有三种车型），如果出货量在今年最后两个季度继续强劲增长，蔚来甚至可能能够突破 100,000 辆大关。蔚来在 2020 年总共交付了 43,728 辆汽车，因此 2021 年的交付量预计为 97,056 辆，意味着同比增长 122%。在2021年的前六个月，蔚来已经交付了41,956辆，占我2021财年交付估计的43%。随着下半年生产恢复正常，蔚来应该能够实现三位数的同比交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb01be329ab1b6d9a6097e74a1d5b250\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales growth is cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来汽车的销量增长很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> EV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商并不便宜，这是因为市场最看重销售和交付增长。蔚来的市盈率为 9.4，估值乘数系数与其他电动汽车制造商没有太大区别。与市盈率为 9.9 的特斯拉 (TSLA) 相比，蔚来具有更大的重估潜力，因为它在更大的市场运营且收入基础较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e0cee1726c807b6b7d04f4f4e44f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺仍然是蔚来的主要风险因素，并将对蔚来第三季度和第四季度的产量产生影响……这将低于潜力。随着下半年情况慢慢恢复正常，蔚来应该能够提高工厂产量和交付量。虽然交付量增长率受到蔚来运营以外因素的影响，但它们也代表着蔚来给市场带来惊喜的巨大机会。好于预期的增长率和快速恢复满产可能会为股价升值创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年的增长速度可能会快于预期，因为芯片供应短缺的缓解以及下半年的强劲反弹可能会推动蔚来达到10万个年度交付的关键里程碑。2021 年电动汽车需求依然强劲，而中国电动汽车制造商正在扼杀这一需求。我相信，随着下半年工厂产量正常化，2021 年年度交付量可能会同比增长 120%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437606-nio-may-grow-faster-than-expected\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437606-nio-may-grow-faster-than-expected","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120590567","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.\nThe Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.\nNIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nChinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.\nShipping volumes are accelerating\nNIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.\nThe global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.\nWhile the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.\nThe market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.\n(Source:InsideEVs)\nXPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.\nXPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.\n(Source:InsideEVs)\nNIO FY 2021 delivery projections\nMy estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO's sales growth is cheap\nEV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.\nData by YCharts\nRisks\nThe chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.\nFinal thoughts\nNIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156026741,"gmtCreate":1625187153783,"gmtModify":1631892410225,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581975110248198","idStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wait n see","listText":"Wait n see","text":"Wait n see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156026741","repostId":"1175807186","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":885955575,"gmtCreate":1631752909797,"gmtModify":1631891504611,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581975110248198","authorIdStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885955575","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176730905,"gmtCreate":1626915062207,"gmtModify":1631891504623,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581975110248198","authorIdStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Continue go higher?","listText":"Continue go higher?","text":"Continue go higher?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176730905","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173671566,"gmtCreate":1626659863555,"gmtModify":1631891504650,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581975110248198","authorIdStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Beware","listText":"Beware","text":"Beware","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173671566","repostId":"1123426523","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123426523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626656489,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1123426523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123426523","media":"WSJ","summary":"The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing inves","content":"<p>The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>股市疯狂牛市的最新受害者是华尔街的格言，即投资者情绪高涨是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流动数据和期权活动都表明，大大小小的投资者都异常看好。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，道琼斯工业平均指数在 2021 年健康上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你这件事时，是时候用这种思维方式去寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在抛售时，你应该双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经支付了巨大的红利来留在牛群中。在这一年里，备忘录股票飙升、木材价格创下历史新高，债券市场在通胀上升的情况下反弹，这是对屡试不爽的最新背离。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>“Sundial Capital Research 总裁 Jason Goepfert 说：”我们已经举手有一段时间了。“不管出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，而这些指标以前有着非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson &amp; Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始出现情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪在很大程度上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自 1951 年以来的数据，3 月底美国人的股票配置比例接近 60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫时期 61.7% 的历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售经纪公司 E*Trade 在 7 月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至 65%。此外，备受关注的股票看跌看涨期权比率（衡量对股票下注的看跌期权与看涨期权的数量）在今年早些时候创下了自 2000 年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&amp;P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年标普500创下 39 项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难猜测。最值得注意的是，刺激政策和宽松货币政策不同寻常地强有力地结合在一起，让投资者现金充裕，而稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易员提供了足够的动力和机会来忽略市场情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（衡量有多少股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约 49% 的股票交易价格高于 50 天移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前相比出现了急剧逆转，当时该指标达到了 90% 以上。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）认为，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消。“但是，当宽度开始恶化，市场仍在历史高点或接近历史高点时，市场情绪状况没有减弱，这时麻烦就真正酝酿出来了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And&nbsp;while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，情绪可能会在很长一段时间内保持高涨，就像 20 世纪 90 年代末一样。尽管主要股指有所上涨，但部分过剩股票却失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到大规模的回撤--在加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非盈利科技公司和备忘录股票方面。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&amp;P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于 Ned Davis Research 数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500往往会在随后几年产生适度的平均回报。例如，当家庭股票配置上升到 54.6% 或更高时--就像互联网泡沫时期和 2007-09 年经济衰退前几年那样--标普500未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在 29% 左右或更低时，基准指数未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特条件可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“戈普弗特先生说：”市场只是在做自己的事情。“情况发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激措施，还是年轻投资者的代际更迭。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecord Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>股市疯狂牛市的最新受害者是华尔街的格言，即投资者情绪高涨是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流动数据和期权活动都表明，大大小小的投资者都异常看好。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，道琼斯工业平均指数在 2021 年健康上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你这件事时，是时候用这种思维方式去寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在抛售时，你应该双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经支付了巨大的红利来留在牛群中。在这一年里，备忘录股票飙升、木材价格创下历史新高，债券市场在通胀上升的情况下反弹，这是对屡试不爽的最新背离。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>“Sundial Capital Research 总裁 Jason Goepfert 说：”我们已经举手有一段时间了。“不管出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，而这些指标以前有着非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson &amp; Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始出现情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪在很大程度上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自 1951 年以来的数据，3 月底美国人的股票配置比例接近 60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫时期 61.7% 的历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售经纪公司 E*Trade 在 7 月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至 65%。此外，备受关注的股票看跌看涨期权比率（衡量对股票下注的看跌期权与看涨期权的数量）在今年早些时候创下了自 2000 年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&amp;P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年标普500创下 39 项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难猜测。最值得注意的是，刺激政策和宽松货币政策不同寻常地强有力地结合在一起，让投资者现金充裕，而稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易员提供了足够的动力和机会来忽略市场情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（衡量有多少股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约 49% 的股票交易价格高于 50 天移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前相比出现了急剧逆转，当时该指标达到了 90% 以上。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）认为，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消。“但是，当宽度开始恶化，市场仍在历史高点或接近历史高点时，市场情绪状况没有减弱，这时麻烦就真正酝酿出来了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And&nbsp;while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，情绪可能会在很长一段时间内保持高涨，就像 20 世纪 90 年代末一样。尽管主要股指有所上涨，但部分过剩股票却失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到大规模的回撤--在加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非盈利科技公司和备忘录股票方面。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&amp;P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于 Ned Davis Research 数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500往往会在随后几年产生适度的平均回报。例如，当家庭股票配置上升到 54.6% 或更高时--就像互联网泡沫时期和 2007-09 年经济衰退前几年那样--标普500未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在 29% 左右或更低时，基准指数未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特条件可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“戈普弗特先生说：”市场只是在做自己的事情。“情况发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激措施，还是年轻投资者的代际更迭。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123426523","content_text":"The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.\nThroughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.\nAnalysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.\nBut for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.\n“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”\nIn the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson & Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.\nThey will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.\nAmericans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.\nA July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.\nThe source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.\nAnalysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.\nRecently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.\nAs of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.\n“Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”\nBut sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.\n“In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.\nAccording a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.\nIn contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.\nEven so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.\n“Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UAL":0.9,"JNJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":822772774,"gmtCreate":1634174698733,"gmtModify":1634174698733,"author":{"id":"3581975110248198","authorId":"3581975110248198","name":"Johnleong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6ab9717d202c58a631934c5f8abd6b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581975110248198","authorIdStr":"3581975110248198"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$Plug Power(PLUG)$</a>finally moving. What is the target&nbsp; price","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$Plug Power(PLUG)$</a>finally moving. What is the target&nbsp; price","text":"$Plug Power(PLUG)$finally moving. What is the target 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09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让包括苏兹-奥曼（Suze Orman）在内的投资专家感到担忧，她甚至表示自己现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一个著名指标——被称为巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对这种担忧从何而来的解释，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏兹·奥曼怎么想？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>媒体打孔/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>苏兹·奥曼几十年来一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼在 CNBC 的一段视频中说：”我不喜欢我现在在市场上看到的情况。“经济形势很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨”。</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样简单，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激检查仍在进行中，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍然担心冠状病毒会带来什么——尤其是在新变种不断涌现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得自从上次撞车以来，已经太久了，不能再在这个高度停留太久了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”这让我再次想起了 2000 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）经常用来评估市场的一个指标，以他的名字命名，这个指标已经出现了足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑它是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但巴菲特指标（衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出之比的指标）继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士不禁要问，这是否是我们即将迎来一场硬着陆的征兆。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为撞车做好准备Freedomz / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等备受关注的股票感到非常不安，部分原因是它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面。“你只想让这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金是在 401(k) 或 IRA 计划中用于退休投资。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年都不打算动用这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低价买入。这样，您的美元现在将走得更远，为未来 20、30 或 40 年的增长留下充足的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡特延 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然奥曼更喜欢低价买入，但她并不建议您在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的起伏之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济衰退欢呼可能是你获得更多利润丰厚投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在 2007 年和 2008 年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费买到东西。“现在看看 15 年后的他们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议您制定美元成本平均策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，您都要定期等额投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易在目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中实现。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至还有一些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的备用零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助抵御市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过对许多不同类型资产和经济部门的投资来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法可以让你购买一家大牌公司的股份，否则你将买不起这部分股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在不受欢迎的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的任何人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼说：”越早开始，你的钱就越多。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该非常高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的股票”。</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股份越多，20 年、40 年、50 年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在 CNBC 视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否迫在眉睫，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择罗斯账户，无论是 401(k) 还是 IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>当您从退休账户中提取资金时，这将帮助您避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的缴款是在税后进行的。另一方面，传统的 IRA 在您供款时无需缴税，因此您最终会在以后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你发现你需要更多的指导，与专业的财务顾问合作，可以帮助你指出正确的方向，这样你就可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离航向或过度纠正时，你将牢牢掌握在驾驶座上，计划着你的夕阳西下。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>苏兹·奥曼 (Suze Orman) 担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让包括苏兹-奥曼（Suze Orman）在内的投资专家感到担忧，她甚至表示自己现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一个著名指标——被称为巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对这种担忧从何而来的解释，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏兹·奥曼怎么想？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>媒体打孔/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>苏兹·奥曼几十年来一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼在 CNBC 的一段视频中说：”我不喜欢我现在在市场上看到的情况。“经济形势很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨”。</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样简单，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激检查仍在进行中，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍然担心冠状病毒会带来什么——尤其是在新变种不断涌现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得自从上次撞车以来，已经太久了，不能再在这个高度停留太久了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”这让我再次想起了 2000 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）经常用来评估市场的一个指标，以他的名字命名，这个指标已经出现了足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑它是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但巴菲特指标（衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出之比的指标）继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士不禁要问，这是否是我们即将迎来一场硬着陆的征兆。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为撞车做好准备Freedomz / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等备受关注的股票感到非常不安，部分原因是它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面。“你只想让这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金是在 401(k) 或 IRA 计划中用于退休投资。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年都不打算动用这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低价买入。这样，您的美元现在将走得更远，为未来 20、30 或 40 年的增长留下充足的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡特延 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然奥曼更喜欢低价买入，但她并不建议您在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的起伏之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济衰退欢呼可能是你获得更多利润丰厚投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在 2007 年和 2008 年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥尔曼说：”当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费买到东西。“现在看看 15 年后的他们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议您制定美元成本平均策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，您都要定期等额投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易在目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中实现。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至还有一些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的备用零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助抵御市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过对许多不同类型资产和经济部门的投资来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法可以让你购买一家大牌公司的股份，否则你将买不起这部分股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在不受欢迎的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的任何人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥曼说：”越早开始，你的钱就越多。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该非常高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的股票”。</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股份越多，20 年、40 年、50 年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹 / Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在 CNBC 视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否迫在眉睫，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择罗斯账户，无论是 401(k) 还是 IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>当您从退休账户中提取资金时，这将帮助您避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的缴款是在税后进行的。另一方面，传统的 IRA 在您供款时无需缴税，因此您最终会在以后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你发现你需要更多的指导，与专业的财务顾问合作，可以帮助你指出正确的方向，这样你就可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离航向或过度纠正时，你将牢牢掌握在驾驶座上，计划着你的夕阳西下。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}