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虎子欧文
2021-11-02
呵呵
北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动
虎子欧文
2021-12-30
垃圾
阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,再创历史新低
虎子欧文
2021-10-29
真是奇文
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虎子欧文
2021-10-06
Taper肯定要发生了
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虎子欧文
2021-09-20
涨了一天又跌了[开心]
热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%
虎子欧文
2021-09-10
世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算
美联储的爱,不是无条件的!
虎子欧文
2021-09-23
典型的死猫跳
恒大系回落,恒腾网络、恒大汽车转跌
虎子欧文
2021-09-14
全球最差的股市
港股午后跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%
虎子欧文
2021-09-03
[龇牙]
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虎子欧文
2021-08-29
[开心]
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14:17","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,再创历史新低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113756583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月30日讯,阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d570d85df91f18509f922c5f03bdfbe\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">12月30日讯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,再创历史新低</title>\n<style 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d570d85df91f18509f922c5f03bdfbe\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">12月30日讯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113756583","content_text":"12月30日讯,阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841936050,"gmtCreate":1635867158455,"gmtModify":1635867158455,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"呵呵","listText":"呵呵","text":"呵呵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841936050","repostId":"1181610117","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181610117","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635864560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181610117?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 22:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181610117","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行。","content":"<p>11月2日晚间消息,北京证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司发布公告:</p>\n<p>为了满足北京证券交易所(以下简称北交所)市场参与人特定股份转让需求,规范上市公司股份协议转让行为,<b>北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司共同制定了《北京证券交易所上市公司股份协议转让细则》,经中国证监会批准,现予以发布,自2021年11月15日起施行</b>。</p>\n<p>细则提到,上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行,由北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司集中统一办理。<b>严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动。</b>股份转让双方可以就转让价格进行协商。股份转让协议达成后,股份转让双方应向北交所申请确认其股份转让合规性。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-02 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2069522><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月2日晚间消息,北京证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司发布公告:\n为了满足北京证券交易所(以下简称北交所)市场参与人特定股份转让需求,规范上市公司股份协议转让行为,北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司共同制定了《北京证券交易所上市公司股份协议转让细则》,经中国证监会批准,现予以发布,自2021年11月15日起施行。\n细则提到,上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行,由北交所和中国证券...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2069522\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a72a02510e274f24f89e1454ef925e3","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2069522","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1181610117","content_text":"11月2日晚间消息,北京证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司发布公告:\n为了满足北京证券交易所(以下简称北交所)市场参与人特定股份转让需求,规范上市公司股份协议转让行为,北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司共同制定了《北京证券交易所上市公司股份协议转让细则》,经中国证监会批准,现予以发布,自2021年11月15日起施行。\n细则提到,上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行,由北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司集中统一办理。严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动。股份转让双方可以就转让价格进行协商。股份转让协议达成后,股份转让双方应向北交所申请确认其股份转让合规性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854435490,"gmtCreate":1635472705496,"gmtModify":1635472705618,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真是奇文","listText":"真是奇文","text":"真是奇文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854435490","repostId":"1194143453","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829506542,"gmtCreate":1633523690312,"gmtModify":1633523715923,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Taper肯定要发生了","listText":"Taper肯定要发生了","text":"Taper肯定要发生了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829506542","repostId":"1123867876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863808391,"gmtCreate":1632369492613,"gmtModify":1632800850866,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"典型的死猫跳","listText":"典型的死猫跳","text":"典型的死猫跳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863808391","repostId":"2169665234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169665234","kind":"live","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632366680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2169665234?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-23 11:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒大系回落,恒腾网络、恒大汽车转跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169665234","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,恒腾网络跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;恒大汽车转跌,此前一度涨超20%;恒大物业涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;中国恒大涨幅收窄至15%,此前","content":"<p>9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">恒腾网络</a>跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>转跌,此前一度涨超20%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06666\">恒大物业</a>涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>涨幅收窄至15%,此前一度涨超32%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf97003bce7cb012ee788e049dd3a01\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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11:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">恒腾网络</a>跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>转跌,此前一度涨超20%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06666\">恒大物业</a>涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>涨幅收窄至15%,此前一度涨超32%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf97003bce7cb012ee788e049dd3a01\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c571cf0b4357240a7b67c1db539b4a","relate_stocks":{"06666":"恒大物业","00708":"恒大汽车","03333":"中国恒大","00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169665234","content_text":"9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,恒腾网络跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;恒大汽车转跌,此前一度涨超20%;恒大物业涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;中国恒大涨幅收窄至15%,此前一度涨超32%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860924564,"gmtCreate":1632125420358,"gmtModify":1632802684884,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"涨了一天又跌了[开心] ","listText":"涨了一天又跌了[开心] ","text":"涨了一天又跌了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860924564","repostId":"1184486650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184486650","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632125027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184486650?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 16:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184486650","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%,拼多多、哔哩哔哩、新东方跌超3%,阿里巴巴、京东跌超2%","content":"<p>9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、京东跌超2%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadb5d980e6c0615cd74f71988d3bc3d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-20 16:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、京东跌超2%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadb5d980e6c0615cd74f71988d3bc3d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184486650","content_text":"9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%,拼多多、哔哩哔哩、新东方跌超3%,阿里巴巴、京东跌超2%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886246370,"gmtCreate":1631599722090,"gmtModify":1632807340337,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全球最差的股市","listText":"全球最差的股市","text":"全球最差的股市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886246370","repostId":"1135762726","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135762726","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631599661,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135762726?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 14:07","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"港股午后跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135762726","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月14日讯,港股跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%,有色、地产板块跌幅居前。","content":"<p>9月14日讯,港股跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%,有色、地产板块跌幅居前。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fbab41e3a1ee0d55d5d7992ddf19bbb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股午后跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%</title>\n<style 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fbab41e3a1ee0d55d5d7992ddf19bbb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135762726","content_text":"9月14日讯,港股跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%,有色、地产板块跌幅居前。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881070763,"gmtCreate":1631283185552,"gmtModify":1632883417231,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算","listText":"世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算","text":"世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881070763","repostId":"1181368305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181368305","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631267491,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181368305?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储的爱,不是无条件的!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181368305","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller","content":"<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储的爱,不是无条件的!</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ><strong>国际金融报 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致:几乎直线倾斜向上,稍有偏离,很快被修复。只有一个区别,这轮上涨斜率更高(如图一:S&P 500指数月K线)。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势,背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先,也是最重要、最根本的,是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始,美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”(Greenspan put)就是指当股市下跌时,格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权(也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险),于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后,美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模,但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头,最后不仅没有缩小,反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松(QE2和QE3),于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初,鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱,发现新任主席爱心不足,立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后,鲍威尔紧急转弯,恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧,于是放心地继续斜线上涨,直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后,美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中,美联储使出浑身解数,不仅迅速将政策利率调到零,而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买,从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底,美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元,几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券,还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效,市场信心恢复,抄底资金涌入,S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往,让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然,这届美联储可能已经别无选择,必须对股市百般呵护,因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标(股市总市值/GDP)已经超过200%,这一方面说明股市估值高企,另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动,从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值,最近已经超过37万亿美元,还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%,蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏,股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里,公共退休基金(即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池)在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里,还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛,股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害,还可能导致社会混乱(想象如果公共退休金亏空违约)。\n对美联储来说,可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市,就是呵护经济。\n当然,美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新,美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样,直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离,它给市场搭了台,唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样,决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的,在笔者看来,是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易(Carry trade)的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空(借入)日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低,雷亚尔利率高,所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值,套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然,如果雷亚尔大幅贬值,该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易:如果贷款顺利付息还本,那么银行赚到息差,否则将大亏。再比如,保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易:如果受保人无事,那么保险公司赚到保险费,如果出事(例如重疾、财产损失等),则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易:如果发行者顺利还本付息,那么获得利息收入,而如果发生信用事件,则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出,套息交易有个共同特征:跟某个巨大的风险(高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等)共存,在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生,但是他希望岁月静好,至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说,套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在,而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货:如果即期VIX(S&P 500隐含波动率)保持稳定,那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”(roll yield),因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端;如果同时即期VIX下行,做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌,VIX大幅上升,那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的,也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权:如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨,那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏,如果市场稳定或上涨,可以增强持股收益。当然,如果股票或指数大跌,那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌,那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底(buy the dips)策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱,但是一旦市场发生大跌,那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响,其标题就是“大家都在干这个”(Everyone’s Doing It)。对很多资金管理者来说,参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报,如果不参与,业绩不如人,则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”,股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面,因为波动率空头压过多头(如股票空头),股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面,套息策略都是助涨的,因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来,就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的?因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性,比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好,在其他不变情况下,股价也就越高。事实上,套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降,诱导机构寻找收益(searching for yield),而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然,上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来,S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌,包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升,股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心,市场又重振旗鼓,再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态,说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者,完全不用更高级的工具,只需要做S&P 500指数的多头(比如买指数ETF)。在岁月静好期间,多头有比较稳定的收益入账,但一旦发生恐慌,可能“一觉回到解放前”,要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨,享受史上最高水平的估值,并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值,持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能:股市波动受到抑制,套息盘被验证能赚钱,吸引更多套息资金入场,同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者:美联储。\n但问题是,美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗?\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提,通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%,已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说,就业情况已经不弱,而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%,远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂(transitory)的,很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落,从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性,而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色,不能看到未来。更重要的是,目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落,美联储应该加息,从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀,并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%,而且因为房屋库存水平较低(尤其是总价低的入门级房屋),同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位(也是宽松货币政策使然),房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍,推高房租水平,因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱,离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致,而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上,甚至不断升高,如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨,那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀,但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看,美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买(也就是所谓的taper),同时等待时机停止资产购买,最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘,这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘,其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险,给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率,斜率越陡,S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态,风险和收益必须匹配,所以股市崩盘风险越大,S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高,这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往,恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来,大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘:2018年一季度,2018年四季度,以及2020年一季度(见图一的三个圈圈)。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大,所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了,我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩,或者是其他冲击。一旦发生,就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环,最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中,所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时,他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓,“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升,而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压,比如风险平价基金(Risk-parity funds)需要降低股票仓位,但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者,但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时,人人都需要流动性,但没有人供应,所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发,导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心,也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费(美国GDP的大头),并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说,美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘,股票基本面会和高企的估值一起,跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场,是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说,目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲:S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期,S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里,美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后,股市套息交易会不会再来一轮?我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后,因为总需求迅速萎缩,通胀问题会迅速消失,失业问题会重返,这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤,下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗?当然可以,美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策,套息交易很可能还会复活。当然,未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高,现在难以判断。反例是日本股市,虽有央行加持,但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815084379,"gmtCreate":1630630455791,"gmtModify":1632469485902,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[龇牙] ","listText":"[龇牙] 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","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813404033","repostId":"1198640818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841936050,"gmtCreate":1635867158455,"gmtModify":1635867158455,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"呵呵","listText":"呵呵","text":"呵呵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841936050","repostId":"1181610117","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181610117","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635864560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181610117?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 22:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181610117","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行。","content":"<p>11月2日晚间消息,北京证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司发布公告:</p>\n<p>为了满足北京证券交易所(以下简称北交所)市场参与人特定股份转让需求,规范上市公司股份协议转让行为,<b>北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司共同制定了《北京证券交易所上市公司股份协议转让细则》,经中国证监会批准,现予以发布,自2021年11月15日起施行</b>。</p>\n<p>细则提到,上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行,由北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司集中统一办理。<b>严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动。</b>股份转让双方可以就转让价格进行协商。股份转让协议达成后,股份转让双方应向北交所申请确认其股份转让合规性。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n北交所:严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-02 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2069522><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月2日晚间消息,北京证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司发布公告:\n为了满足北京证券交易所(以下简称北交所)市场参与人特定股份转让需求,规范上市公司股份协议转让行为,北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司共同制定了《北京证券交易所上市公司股份协议转让细则》,经中国证监会批准,现予以发布,自2021年11月15日起施行。\n细则提到,上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行,由北交所和中国证券...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2069522\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a72a02510e274f24f89e1454ef925e3","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2069522","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1181610117","content_text":"11月2日晚间消息,北京证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司发布公告:\n为了满足北京证券交易所(以下简称北交所)市场参与人特定股份转让需求,规范上市公司股份协议转让行为,北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司共同制定了《北京证券交易所上市公司股份协议转让细则》,经中国证监会批准,现予以发布,自2021年11月15日起施行。\n细则提到,上市公司股份协议转让必须在证券交易所进行,由北交所和中国证券登记结算有限责任公司集中统一办理。严禁进行场外非法股票交易和转让活动。股份转让双方可以就转让价格进行协商。股份转让协议达成后,股份转让双方应向北交所申请确认其股份转让合规性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692310047,"gmtCreate":1640845413548,"gmtModify":1640846052083,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"垃圾","listText":"垃圾","text":"垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692310047","repostId":"1113756583","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113756583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640845039,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113756583?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 14:17","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,再创历史新低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113756583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月30日讯,阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d570d85df91f18509f922c5f03bdfbe\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">12月30日讯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,再创历史新低</title>\n<style 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d570d85df91f18509f922c5f03bdfbe\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">12月30日讯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113756583","content_text":"12月30日讯,阿里巴巴午后跌超1%,报109.2港元,再创历史新低。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854435490,"gmtCreate":1635472705496,"gmtModify":1635472705618,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真是奇文","listText":"真是奇文","text":"真是奇文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854435490","repostId":"1194143453","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829506542,"gmtCreate":1633523690312,"gmtModify":1633523715923,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Taper肯定要发生了","listText":"Taper肯定要发生了","text":"Taper肯定要发生了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829506542","repostId":"1123867876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860924564,"gmtCreate":1632125420358,"gmtModify":1632802684884,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"涨了一天又跌了[开心] ","listText":"涨了一天又跌了[开心] ","text":"涨了一天又跌了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860924564","repostId":"1184486650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184486650","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632125027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184486650?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 16:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184486650","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%,拼多多、哔哩哔哩、新东方跌超3%,阿里巴巴、京东跌超2%","content":"<p>9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、京东跌超2%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadb5d980e6c0615cd74f71988d3bc3d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-20 16:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、京东跌超2%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadb5d980e6c0615cd74f71988d3bc3d\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184486650","content_text":"9月20日,热门中概股盘前集体下挫,贝壳跌超5%,拼多多、哔哩哔哩、新东方跌超3%,阿里巴巴、京东跌超2%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881070763,"gmtCreate":1631283185552,"gmtModify":1632883417231,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算","listText":"世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算","text":"世道变了,不能用过去的方法估算","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881070763","repostId":"1181368305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181368305","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631267491,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181368305?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储的爱,不是无条件的!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181368305","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller","content":"<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储的爱,不是无条件的!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ><strong>国际金融报 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内,美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点(截至2021年9月3日收盘),涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面,S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍,超过2008年金融危机之前水平,接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8,也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3,是有数据以来的最高,超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致:几乎直线倾斜向上,稍有偏离,很快被修复。只有一个区别,这轮上涨斜率更高(如图一:S&P 500指数月K线)。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势,背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先,也是最重要、最根本的,是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始,美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”(Greenspan put)就是指当股市下跌时,格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权(也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险),于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后,美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模,但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头,最后不仅没有缩小,反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松(QE2和QE3),于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初,鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱,发现新任主席爱心不足,立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后,鲍威尔紧急转弯,恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧,于是放心地继续斜线上涨,直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后,美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中,美联储使出浑身解数,不仅迅速将政策利率调到零,而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买,从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底,美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元,几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券,还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效,市场信心恢复,抄底资金涌入,S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往,让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然,这届美联储可能已经别无选择,必须对股市百般呵护,因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标(股市总市值/GDP)已经超过200%,这一方面说明股市估值高企,另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动,从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值,最近已经超过37万亿美元,还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%,蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏,股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里,公共退休基金(即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池)在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里,还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛,股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害,还可能导致社会混乱(想象如果公共退休金亏空违约)。\n对美联储来说,可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市,就是呵护经济。\n当然,美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新,美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样,直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离,它给市场搭了台,唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样,决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的,在笔者看来,是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易(Carry trade)的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空(借入)日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低,雷亚尔利率高,所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值,套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然,如果雷亚尔大幅贬值,该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易:如果贷款顺利付息还本,那么银行赚到息差,否则将大亏。再比如,保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易:如果受保人无事,那么保险公司赚到保险费,如果出事(例如重疾、财产损失等),则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易:如果发行者顺利还本付息,那么获得利息收入,而如果发生信用事件,则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出,套息交易有个共同特征:跟某个巨大的风险(高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等)共存,在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生,但是他希望岁月静好,至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说,套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在,而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货:如果即期VIX(S&P 500隐含波动率)保持稳定,那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”(roll yield),因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端;如果同时即期VIX下行,做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌,VIX大幅上升,那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的,也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权:如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨,那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏,如果市场稳定或上涨,可以增强持股收益。当然,如果股票或指数大跌,那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌,那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底(buy the dips)策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱,但是一旦市场发生大跌,那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响,其标题就是“大家都在干这个”(Everyone’s Doing It)。对很多资金管理者来说,参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报,如果不参与,业绩不如人,则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”,股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面,因为波动率空头压过多头(如股票空头),股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面,套息策略都是助涨的,因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来,就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的?因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性,比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好,在其他不变情况下,股价也就越高。事实上,套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降,诱导机构寻找收益(searching for yield),而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然,上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来,S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌,包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升,股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心,市场又重振旗鼓,再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态,说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者,完全不用更高级的工具,只需要做S&P 500指数的多头(比如买指数ETF)。在岁月静好期间,多头有比较稳定的收益入账,但一旦发生恐慌,可能“一觉回到解放前”,要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨,享受史上最高水平的估值,并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值,持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能:股市波动受到抑制,套息盘被验证能赚钱,吸引更多套息资金入场,同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者:美联储。\n但问题是,美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗?\n美联储的爱,不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提,通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%,已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说,就业情况已经不弱,而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%,远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂(transitory)的,很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落,从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性,而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色,不能看到未来。更重要的是,目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落,美联储应该加息,从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀,并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%,而且因为房屋库存水平较低(尤其是总价低的入门级房屋),同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位(也是宽松货币政策使然),房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍,推高房租水平,因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱,离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致,而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上,甚至不断升高,如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨,那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀,但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看,美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买(也就是所谓的taper),同时等待时机停止资产购买,最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘,这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘,其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险,给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率,斜率越陡,S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态,风险和收益必须匹配,所以股市崩盘风险越大,S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高,这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往,恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来,大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘:2018年一季度,2018年四季度,以及2020年一季度(见图一的三个圈圈)。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大,所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了,我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩,或者是其他冲击。一旦发生,就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环,最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中,所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时,他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓,“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升,而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压,比如风险平价基金(Risk-parity funds)需要降低股票仓位,但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者,但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时,人人都需要流动性,但没有人供应,所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发,导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心,也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费(美国GDP的大头),并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说,美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘,股票基本面会和高企的估值一起,跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场,是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说,目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲:S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期,S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里,美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后,股市套息交易会不会再来一轮?我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后,因为总需求迅速萎缩,通胀问题会迅速消失,失业问题会重返,这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤,下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗?当然可以,美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策,套息交易很可能还会复活。当然,未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高,现在难以判断。反例是日本股市,虽有央行加持,但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863808391,"gmtCreate":1632369492613,"gmtModify":1632800850866,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"典型的死猫跳","listText":"典型的死猫跳","text":"典型的死猫跳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863808391","repostId":"2169665234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169665234","kind":"live","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632366680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2169665234?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-23 11:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒大系回落,恒腾网络、恒大汽车转跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169665234","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,恒腾网络跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;恒大汽车转跌,此前一度涨超20%;恒大物业涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;中国恒大涨幅收窄至15%,此前","content":"<p>9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">恒腾网络</a>跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>转跌,此前一度涨超20%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06666\">恒大物业</a>涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>涨幅收窄至15%,此前一度涨超32%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf97003bce7cb012ee788e049dd3a01\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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11:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">恒腾网络</a>跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>转跌,此前一度涨超20%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06666\">恒大物业</a>涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>涨幅收窄至15%,此前一度涨超32%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf97003bce7cb012ee788e049dd3a01\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c571cf0b4357240a7b67c1db539b4a","relate_stocks":{"06666":"恒大物业","00708":"恒大汽车","03333":"中国恒大","00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169665234","content_text":"9月23日讯,盘初集体暴涨的恒大系盘中回落。截至目前,恒腾网络跌超3%,此前一度涨近13%;恒大汽车转跌,此前一度涨超20%;恒大物业涨幅收窄至7%,此前一度涨近18%;中国恒大涨幅收窄至15%,此前一度涨超32%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886246370,"gmtCreate":1631599722090,"gmtModify":1632807340337,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全球最差的股市","listText":"全球最差的股市","text":"全球最差的股市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886246370","repostId":"1135762726","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135762726","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631599661,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135762726?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 14:07","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"港股午后跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135762726","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月14日讯,港股跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%,有色、地产板块跌幅居前。","content":"<p>9月14日讯,港股跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%,有色、地产板块跌幅居前。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fbab41e3a1ee0d55d5d7992ddf19bbb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股午后跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%</title>\n<style 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fbab41e3a1ee0d55d5d7992ddf19bbb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135762726","content_text":"9月14日讯,港股跳水,恒指跌幅扩大至1%,有色、地产板块跌幅居前。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815084379,"gmtCreate":1630630455791,"gmtModify":1632469485902,"author":{"id":"3581983861179652","authorId":"3581983861179652","name":"虎子欧文","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983861179652","authorIdStr":"3581983861179652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[龇牙] ","listText":"[龇牙] 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