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CHanzhong

CHanzhong

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2022-01-20

K

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2022-01-17

Interesting

Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>

2021-10-15

K

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2021-08-22

Ok

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-07-26

Cool

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2021-07-08

Agreed

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2021-07-08

Fear of slowdown in recovery

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2021-07-08

Fear of recovery slowdown

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2021-06-29

Wow

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2021-06-25

Cool.

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2021-06-25

Btc long term better.

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2021-06-25

Apple

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2021-06-25

All shorts killed.

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2021-06-25

Wow all shorts killed

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2021-06-24

Interesting

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2021-06-24

Wow

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2021-06-23

Check out root

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Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108296248","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎很容易受到真正的调整。但是从新年仅仅两周的时间里，你能真正看出什么呢？不多，也不少。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率将走高，而一直处于历史低位的债券收益率注定会同步上升。</blockquote></p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p><blockquote>在1月25日至26日美联储今年首次政策会议之前的传统媒体封锁之前，美联储成员似乎无法更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote></p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会将在2022年加息多少次。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙暗示，七个可能是要击败的数字，基于市场的预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，周五下午10年期国债收益率为1.771%，这意味着收益率在年初的前10个交易日内攀升了约26个基点，这将是自1992年以来最强劲的涨幅。根据道琼斯市场数据。回到30年前，当年年初，10年期国债上涨32个基点至7%左右。</blockquote></p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，往往对美联储利率变动更为敏感的2年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD02Y正在敲开1%的大门，今年迄今已上涨24个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p><blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote></p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，在我们似乎最早将于三月份进入的所谓加息周期期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近55%，标普500 SPX的平均回报率为62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为102.7%，根据道琼斯使用1989年的数据（见附表）。也许不足为奇的是，美联储降息也带来了强劲上涨，在美联储降息期间，道琼斯指数平均上涨23%，标普500上涨21%，纳斯达克上涨32%。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p><blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软的时期，而加息则发生在经济被认为过热的时期，这可能是降息期间股市表现差异的原因。</blockquote></p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历20世纪70年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据2022年股市迄今为止的走势，看涨投资者不太可能获得两位数的回报。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数1月份迄今已下跌4.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么在起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易中获胜的是能源板块，标普500能源板块XX：SP500 XLE预计2022年迄今上涨16.4%，而金融股XX：SP500 XLF遥遥领先，上涨4.4%%。标普500其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据iShares标普500价值ETF IVE的衡量，上周每周上涨0.1%，但本月迄今的回报率为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升使其未来现金流的价值降低。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的iShares标普500增长ETF IVW本周下跌0.6%，1月份迄今下跌5.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么真的不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p><blockquote>生物科技股正在遭受重创，iShares生物科技ETF IBB本周下跌1.1%，本月迄今下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT是一只受欢迎的零售ETF，上周下跌4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌7.4%。</blockquote></p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的旗舰ARK Innovation ETF ARKK本周收盘下跌近5%，1月份前两周下跌15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG和ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样忧郁。</blockquote></p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>受欢迎的模因名称也受到重创，游戏驿站公司GME上周下跌17%，1月份下跌超过21%，而AMC院线控股公司AMC本周下跌近11%，本月迄今下跌超过24%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来一周</b></blockquote></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国市场周一休市以纪念马丁·路德·金假期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的美国企业盈利</b></blockquote></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b></blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><blockquote>高盛集团GS、Truist Financial Corp.TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B.亨特运输服务JBHT、盈透证券集团公司IBKR</blockquote></p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b></blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利MS、美国银行BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行STT、联合健康集团UNH、宝洁PG、金德摩根KMI、Fastenal Co.FAST</blockquote></p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b></blockquote></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股UAL、美国航空AAL、贝克休斯BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp.CSX、联合太平洋公司UNP、The Travelers Cos。TRV公司、Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote></p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五：</b></blockquote></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p><blockquote>斯伦贝谢SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司HBAN</blockquote></p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30公布的1月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote></p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点NAHB一月份房屋建筑商指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>12月份的建筑许可和开工时间为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午8:30费城联储1月份指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>截至1月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数（以及1月8日持续申请失业救济人数）为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份现房销售情况。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份领先经济指标。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGet Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-17 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎很容易受到真正的调整。但是从新年仅仅两周的时间里，你能真正看出什么呢？不多，也不少。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率将走高，而一直处于历史低位的债券收益率注定会同步上升。</blockquote></p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p><blockquote>在1月25日至26日美联储今年首次政策会议之前的传统媒体封锁之前，美联储成员似乎无法更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote></p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会将在2022年加息多少次。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙暗示，七个可能是要击败的数字，基于市场的预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，周五下午10年期国债收益率为1.771%，这意味着收益率在年初的前10个交易日内攀升了约26个基点，这将是自1992年以来最强劲的涨幅。根据道琼斯市场数据。回到30年前，当年年初，10年期国债上涨32个基点至7%左右。</blockquote></p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，往往对美联储利率变动更为敏感的2年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD02Y正在敲开1%的大门，今年迄今已上涨24个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p><blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote></p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，在我们似乎最早将于三月份进入的所谓加息周期期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近55%，标普500 SPX的平均回报率为62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为102.7%，根据道琼斯使用1989年的数据（见附表）。也许不足为奇的是，美联储降息也带来了强劲上涨，在美联储降息期间，道琼斯指数平均上涨23%，标普500上涨21%，纳斯达克上涨32%。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p><blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软的时期，而加息则发生在经济被认为过热的时期，这可能是降息期间股市表现差异的原因。</blockquote></p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历20世纪70年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据2022年股市迄今为止的走势，看涨投资者不太可能获得两位数的回报。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数1月份迄今已下跌4.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么在起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易中获胜的是能源板块，标普500能源板块XX：SP500 XLE预计2022年迄今上涨16.4%，而金融股XX：SP500 XLF遥遥领先，上涨4.4%%。标普500其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据iShares标普500价值ETF IVE的衡量，上周每周上涨0.1%，但本月迄今的回报率为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升使其未来现金流的价值降低。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的iShares标普500增长ETF IVW本周下跌0.6%，1月份迄今下跌5.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么真的不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p><blockquote>生物科技股正在遭受重创，iShares生物科技ETF IBB本周下跌1.1%，本月迄今下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT是一只受欢迎的零售ETF，上周下跌4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌7.4%。</blockquote></p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的旗舰ARK Innovation ETF ARKK本周收盘下跌近5%，1月份前两周下跌15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG和ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样忧郁。</blockquote></p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>受欢迎的模因名称也受到重创，游戏驿站公司GME上周下跌17%，1月份下跌超过21%，而AMC院线控股公司AMC本周下跌近11%，本月迄今下跌超过24%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来一周</b></blockquote></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国市场周一休市以纪念马丁·路德·金假期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的美国企业盈利</b></blockquote></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b></blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><blockquote>高盛集团GS、Truist Financial Corp.TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B.亨特运输服务JBHT、盈透证券集团公司IBKR</blockquote></p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b></blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利MS、美国银行BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行STT、联合健康集团UNH、宝洁PG、金德摩根KMI、Fastenal Co.FAST</blockquote></p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b></blockquote></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股UAL、美国航空AAL、贝克休斯BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp.CSX、联合太平洋公司UNP、The Travelers Cos。TRV公司、Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote></p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五：</b></blockquote></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p><blockquote>斯伦贝谢SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司HBAN</blockquote></p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30公布的1月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote></p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点NAHB一月份房屋建筑商指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>12月份的建筑许可和开工时间为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午8:30费城联储1月份指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>截至1月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数（以及1月8日持续申请失业救济人数）为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份现房销售情况。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份领先经济指标。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108296248","content_text":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.What’s working?So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&P 500 are either flat or lower.Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.What’s not working?Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.What’s really not working?Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.FridayLeading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825704713,"gmtCreate":1634256837351,"gmtModify":1634274408989,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581983907375620","idStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825704713","repostId":"2175118595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832128504,"gmtCreate":1629599605208,"gmtModify":1631889958535,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581983907375620","idStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832128504","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","SNPS":"新思科技","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","SSNLF":"三星电子","ON":"安森美半导体","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","ASML":"阿斯麦","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford 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22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","SNPS":"新思科技","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","SSNLF":"三星电子","ON":"安森美半导体","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","ASML":"阿斯麦","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford 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13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108296248","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎很容易受到真正的调整。但是从新年仅仅两周的时间里，你能真正看出什么呢？不多，也不少。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率将走高，而一直处于历史低位的债券收益率注定会同步上升。</blockquote></p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p><blockquote>在1月25日至26日美联储今年首次政策会议之前的传统媒体封锁之前，美联储成员似乎无法更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote></p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会将在2022年加息多少次。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙暗示，七个可能是要击败的数字，基于市场的预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，周五下午10年期国债收益率为1.771%，这意味着收益率在年初的前10个交易日内攀升了约26个基点，这将是自1992年以来最强劲的涨幅。根据道琼斯市场数据。回到30年前，当年年初，10年期国债上涨32个基点至7%左右。</blockquote></p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，往往对美联储利率变动更为敏感的2年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD02Y正在敲开1%的大门，今年迄今已上涨24个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p><blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote></p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，在我们似乎最早将于三月份进入的所谓加息周期期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近55%，标普500 SPX的平均回报率为62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为102.7%，根据道琼斯使用1989年的数据（见附表）。也许不足为奇的是，美联储降息也带来了强劲上涨，在美联储降息期间，道琼斯指数平均上涨23%，标普500上涨21%，纳斯达克上涨32%。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p><blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软的时期，而加息则发生在经济被认为过热的时期，这可能是降息期间股市表现差异的原因。</blockquote></p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历20世纪70年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据2022年股市迄今为止的走势，看涨投资者不太可能获得两位数的回报。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数1月份迄今已下跌4.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么在起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易中获胜的是能源板块，标普500能源板块XX：SP500 XLE预计2022年迄今上涨16.4%，而金融股XX：SP500 XLF遥遥领先，上涨4.4%%。标普500其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据iShares标普500价值ETF IVE的衡量，上周每周上涨0.1%，但本月迄今的回报率为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升使其未来现金流的价值降低。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的iShares标普500增长ETF IVW本周下跌0.6%，1月份迄今下跌5.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么真的不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p><blockquote>生物科技股正在遭受重创，iShares生物科技ETF IBB本周下跌1.1%，本月迄今下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT是一只受欢迎的零售ETF，上周下跌4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌7.4%。</blockquote></p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的旗舰ARK Innovation ETF ARKK本周收盘下跌近5%，1月份前两周下跌15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG和ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样忧郁。</blockquote></p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>受欢迎的模因名称也受到重创，游戏驿站公司GME上周下跌17%，1月份下跌超过21%，而AMC院线控股公司AMC本周下跌近11%，本月迄今下跌超过24%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来一周</b></blockquote></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国市场周一休市以纪念马丁·路德·金假期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的美国企业盈利</b></blockquote></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b></blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><blockquote>高盛集团GS、Truist Financial Corp.TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B.亨特运输服务JBHT、盈透证券集团公司IBKR</blockquote></p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b></blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利MS、美国银行BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行STT、联合健康集团UNH、宝洁PG、金德摩根KMI、Fastenal Co.FAST</blockquote></p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b></blockquote></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股UAL、美国航空AAL、贝克休斯BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp.CSX、联合太平洋公司UNP、The Travelers Cos。TRV公司、Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote></p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五：</b></blockquote></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p><blockquote>斯伦贝谢SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司HBAN</blockquote></p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30公布的1月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote></p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点NAHB一月份房屋建筑商指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>12月份的建筑许可和开工时间为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午8:30费城联储1月份指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>截至1月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数（以及1月8日持续申请失业救济人数）为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份现房销售情况。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份领先经济指标。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGet Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-17 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎很容易受到真正的调整。但是从新年仅仅两周的时间里，你能真正看出什么呢？不多，也不少。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率将走高，而一直处于历史低位的债券收益率注定会同步上升。</blockquote></p><p>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.</p><p><blockquote>在1月25日至26日美联储今年首次政策会议之前的传统媒体封锁之前，美联储成员似乎无法更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote></p><p>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会将在2022年加息多少次。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙暗示，七个可能是要击败的数字，基于市场的预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，周五下午10年期国债收益率为1.771%，这意味着收益率在年初的前10个交易日内攀升了约26个基点，这将是自1992年以来最强劲的涨幅。根据道琼斯市场数据。回到30年前，当年年初，10年期国债上涨32个基点至7%左右。</blockquote></p><p>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，往往对美联储利率变动更为敏感的2年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD02Y正在敲开1%的大门，今年迄今已上涨24个基点。</blockquote></p><p>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?</p><p><blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote></p><p>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，在我们似乎最早将于三月份进入的所谓加息周期期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近55%，标普500 SPX的平均回报率为62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为102.7%，根据道琼斯使用1989年的数据（见附表）。也许不足为奇的是，美联储降息也带来了强劲上涨，在美联储降息期间，道琼斯指数平均上涨23%，标普500上涨21%，纳斯达克上涨32%。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.</p><p><blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软的时期，而加息则发生在经济被认为过热的时期，这可能是降息期间股市表现差异的原因。</blockquote></p><p>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历20世纪70年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据2022年股市迄今为止的走势，看涨投资者不太可能获得两位数的回报。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数1月份迄今已下跌4.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么在起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易中获胜的是能源板块，标普500能源板块XX：SP500 XLE预计2022年迄今上涨16.4%，而金融股XX：SP500 XLF遥遥领先，上涨4.4%%。标普500其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据iShares标普500价值ETF IVE的衡量，上周每周上涨0.1%，但本月迄今的回报率为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升使其未来现金流的价值降低。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的iShares标普500增长ETF IVW本周下跌0.6%，1月份迄今下跌5.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>What’s really not working?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么真的不起作用？</b></blockquote></p><p>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.</p><p><blockquote>生物科技股正在遭受重创，iShares生物科技ETF IBB本周下跌1.1%，本月迄今下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT是一只受欢迎的零售ETF，上周下跌4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌7.4%。</blockquote></p><p>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的旗舰ARK Innovation ETF ARKK本周收盘下跌近5%，1月份前两周下跌15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG和ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样忧郁。</blockquote></p><p>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.</p><p><blockquote>受欢迎的模因名称也受到重创，游戏驿站公司GME上周下跌17%，1月份下跌超过21%，而AMC院线控股公司AMC本周下跌近11%，本月迄今下跌超过24%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来一周</b></blockquote></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国市场周一休市以纪念马丁·路德·金假期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的美国企业盈利</b></blockquote></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b></blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><blockquote>高盛集团GS、Truist Financial Corp.TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B.亨特运输服务JBHT、盈透证券集团公司IBKR</blockquote></p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b></blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利MS、美国银行BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行STT、联合健康集团UNH、宝洁PG、金德摩根KMI、Fastenal Co.FAST</blockquote></p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b></blockquote></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股UAL、美国航空AAL、贝克休斯BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp.CSX、联合太平洋公司UNP、The Travelers Cos。TRV公司、Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote></p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五：</b></blockquote></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p><blockquote>斯伦贝谢SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司HBAN</blockquote></p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周二</b></blockquote></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30公布的1月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote></p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点NAHB一月份房屋建筑商指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三</b></blockquote></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>12月份的建筑许可和开工时间为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午8:30费城联储1月份指数。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四</b></blockquote></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>截至1月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数（以及1月8日持续申请失业救济人数）为上午8:30。</blockquote></p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份现房销售情况。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五</b></blockquote></p><p>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>上午10点12月份领先经济指标。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108296248","content_text":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.What’s working?So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&P 500 are either flat or lower.Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.What’s not working?Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.What’s really not working?Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.FridayLeading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123335379,"gmtCreate":1624408642191,"gmtModify":1634006606652,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581983907375620","idStr":"3581983907375620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Check out root","listText":"Check out root","text":"Check out root","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a2062b8a1f288daf027235648b6d26d","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123335379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}