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2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

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2021-06-16

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Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>

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"idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160884200","repostId":"1134275605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160884897,"gmtCreate":1623780473719,"gmtModify":1634028311338,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160884897","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160884076,"gmtCreate":1623780443495,"gmtModify":1634028311463,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160884076","repostId":"1136326531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136326531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623738355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136326531?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136326531","media":"Associated Press","summary":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised ","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步降低超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会持续几个月。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格会上涨，他们可能会采取行动——例如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会推高通胀。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned&nbsp;at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临两难境地：一方面，通胀上升速度远快于今年早些时候的预期，尽管美联储将价格压力描述为“暂时的”，这是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度慢于主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储4月底最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到“一系列”招聘报告显示每月新增约100万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布了创纪录数量的空缺职位，但今年任何一个月的就业市场都尚未达到这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被从衰退中重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新政策会议结束、鲍威尔召开新闻发布会时不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在将长期利率保持在较低水平，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储政策制定委员会似乎可能开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购债规模，就有可能重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时，时任美联储主席本·伯南克暗示美联储可能“在未来几次会议上”缩减债券购买规模，这比交易员预期的要早，震惊了金融市场。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家现在预计会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会进行任何缩减。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，5月份通胀率同比跃升至5%，这是自2008年以来12个月内最大涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在COVID-19爆发之初大幅下跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人亲自重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这样的涨价可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>投资公司麦凯·希尔兹(Mackay Shields)经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)表示：“我认为他们仍然强烈地认为我们所看到的只是暂时的。”</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，这些预期就会自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然预计短期内通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计长期内价格只会小幅上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直坚持认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只是缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>美联储董事会六位理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德本月早些时候表示：“某些类别商品和服务的暂时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者可能会在本周开始讨论缩减购债规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示：“我们必须提前思考、提前计划，因此我确实认为我们考虑未来可能出现的各种选择是有意义的。”本月早些时候接受雅虎财经采访。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离实现我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，以开始放缓债券购买。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未定义过实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于2%的双重目标的“实质性进一步进展”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼表示，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减购债规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买。另一个问题是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少购买国债和抵押贷款债券。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在为房地产市场提供了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计，官员们将发出信号，他们预计将在2023年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变：政策制定者此前在3月份的预测显示，2023年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预期，但仅小幅上调未来两年的通胀预期，以表明他们预计物价上涨将减弱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603278176698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Associated Press</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 14:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步降低超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会持续几个月。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格会上涨，他们可能会采取行动——例如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会推高通胀。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned&nbsp;at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临两难境地：一方面，通胀上升速度远快于今年早些时候的预期，尽管美联储将价格压力描述为“暂时的”，这是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度慢于主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储4月底最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到“一系列”招聘报告显示每月新增约100万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布了创纪录数量的空缺职位，但今年任何一个月的就业市场都尚未达到这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被从衰退中重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新政策会议结束、鲍威尔召开新闻发布会时不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在将长期利率保持在较低水平，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储政策制定委员会似乎可能开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购债规模，就有可能重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时，时任美联储主席本·伯南克暗示美联储可能“在未来几次会议上”缩减债券购买规模，这比交易员预期的要早，震惊了金融市场。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家现在预计会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会进行任何缩减。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，5月份通胀率同比跃升至5%，这是自2008年以来12个月内最大涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在COVID-19爆发之初大幅下跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人亲自重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这样的涨价可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>投资公司麦凯·希尔兹(Mackay Shields)经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)表示：“我认为他们仍然强烈地认为我们所看到的只是暂时的。”</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，这些预期就会自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然预计短期内通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计长期内价格只会小幅上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直坚持认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只是缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>美联储董事会六位理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德本月早些时候表示：“某些类别商品和服务的暂时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者可能会在本周开始讨论缩减购债规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示：“我们必须提前思考、提前计划，因此我确实认为我们考虑未来可能出现的各种选择是有意义的。”本月早些时候接受雅虎财经采访。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离实现我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，以开始放缓债券购买。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未定义过实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于2%的双重目标的“实质性进一步进展”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼表示，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减购债规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买。另一个问题是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少购买国债和抵押贷款债券。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在为房地产市场提供了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计，官员们将发出信号，他们预计将在2023年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变：政策制定者此前在3月份的预测显示，2023年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预期，但仅小幅上调未来两年的通胀预期，以表明他们预计物价上涨将减弱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c\">Associated Press</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136326531","content_text":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.\nIt will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.\nThe Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.\nPowell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.\nWith the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.\nBut the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.\nThat occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.\nHaving learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.\nLast week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.\nOther inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.\n“I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.\nAnother key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.\nSo far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.\n“The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.\nAs a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.\n“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.\nAt the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.\nAnother challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.\nThat’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.\nFed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":160887538,"gmtCreate":1623780637524,"gmtModify":1634028310422,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160887538","repostId":"1146320033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160884200,"gmtCreate":1623780491500,"gmtModify":1634028311093,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160884200","repostId":"1134275605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160884897,"gmtCreate":1623780473719,"gmtModify":1634028311338,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160884897","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168387880,"gmtCreate":1623951092140,"gmtModify":1634025308975,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie","listText":"Okie","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168387880","repostId":"2144744636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168387300,"gmtCreate":1623951075600,"gmtModify":1634025309095,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168387300","repostId":"2144742672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160884076,"gmtCreate":1623780443495,"gmtModify":1634028311463,"author":{"id":"3582006439301585","authorId":"3582006439301585","name":"Elisecret","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006439301585","idStr":"3582006439301585"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160884076","repostId":"1136326531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136326531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623738355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136326531?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136326531","media":"Associated Press","summary":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised ","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步降低超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会持续几个月。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格会上涨，他们可能会采取行动——例如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会推高通胀。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned&nbsp;at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临两难境地：一方面，通胀上升速度远快于今年早些时候的预期，尽管美联储将价格压力描述为“暂时的”，这是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度慢于主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储4月底最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到“一系列”招聘报告显示每月新增约100万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布了创纪录数量的空缺职位，但今年任何一个月的就业市场都尚未达到这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被从衰退中重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新政策会议结束、鲍威尔召开新闻发布会时不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在将长期利率保持在较低水平，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储政策制定委员会似乎可能开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购债规模，就有可能重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时，时任美联储主席本·伯南克暗示美联储可能“在未来几次会议上”缩减债券购买规模，这比交易员预期的要早，震惊了金融市场。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家现在预计会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会进行任何缩减。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，5月份通胀率同比跃升至5%，这是自2008年以来12个月内最大涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在COVID-19爆发之初大幅下跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人亲自重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这样的涨价可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>投资公司麦凯·希尔兹(Mackay Shields)经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)表示：“我认为他们仍然强烈地认为我们所看到的只是暂时的。”</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，这些预期就会自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然预计短期内通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计长期内价格只会小幅上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直坚持认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只是缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>美联储董事会六位理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德本月早些时候表示：“某些类别商品和服务的暂时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者可能会在本周开始讨论缩减购债规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示：“我们必须提前思考、提前计划，因此我确实认为我们考虑未来可能出现的各种选择是有意义的。”本月早些时候接受雅虎财经采访。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离实现我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，以开始放缓债券购买。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未定义过实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于2%的双重目标的“实质性进一步进展”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼表示，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减购债规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买。另一个问题是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少购买国债和抵押贷款债券。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在为房地产市场提供了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计，官员们将发出信号，他们预计将在2023年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变：政策制定者此前在3月份的预测显示，2023年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预期，但仅小幅上调未来两年的通胀预期，以表明他们预计物价上涨将减弱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603278176698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support<blockquote>美联储面临的微妙任务：何时撤回低利率支持</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Associated Press</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 14:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（美联社）——随着快速反弹的经济中通胀上升，美联储本周准备讨论何时采取第一步降低超低利率政策。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p><p><blockquote>这将是一场令人担忧的讨论，可能会持续几个月。然而，不断升级的通胀迫使消费者和企业支付更多费用，这加大了美联储的压力，要求其确保物价上涨不会在消费者的前景中根深蒂固。如果美国人开始预期价格会上涨，他们可能会采取行动——例如在价格进一步上涨之前加快购买速度——这可能会推高通胀。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned&nbsp;at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p><p><blockquote>美联储面临两难境地：一方面，通胀上升速度远快于今年早些时候的预期，尽管美联储将价格压力描述为“暂时的”，这是供应短缺和快速复苏的结果。另一方面，招聘速度慢于主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储4月底最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上提到的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔当时表示，他希望看到“一系列”招聘报告显示每月新增约100万个工作岗位。尽管雇主发布了创纪录数量的空缺职位，但今年任何一个月的就业市场都尚未达到这一总数。</blockquote></p><p> With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济形势仍被从衰退中重新开放的混乱所笼罩，预计周三美联储最新政策会议结束、鲍威尔召开新闻发布会时不会做出重大决定。美联储将把关键短期利率维持在接近零的水平，并继续每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款债券。这些购买旨在将长期利率保持在较低水平，以鼓励借贷和支出。</blockquote></p><p> But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储政策制定委员会似乎可能开始讨论逐步减少债券购买的时机和机制。向公众传达这一决定将是一项敏感的任务。如果美联储表示将比市场预期更早缩减购债规模，就有可能重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote></p><p> That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p><p><blockquote>当时，时任美联储主席本·伯南克暗示美联储可能“在未来几次会议上”缩减债券购买规模，这比交易员预期的要早，震惊了金融市场。伯南克的言论导致长期债券收益率飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>从那次事件中吸取教训后，鲍威尔可能会在美联储2017年决定缓慢减少大衰退后积累的债券持有量后采取任何缩减行动。该计划的第一个暗示出现在最终决定做出前六个月。经济学家现在预计会有类似的时间表，这表明年底前不会进行任何缩减。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>上周，政府报告称，5月份通胀率同比跃升至5%，这是自2008年以来12个月内最大涨幅。这一增长的部分原因是二手车价格大幅上涨，由于半导体短缺导致汽车生产放缓，二手车价格飙升。汽车租赁公司不得不购买二手车来重建车队，其中大部分在疫情期间被出售。</blockquote></p><p> Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p><p><blockquote>其他通胀驱动因素包括机票、汽车租赁和酒店客房等服务，这些服务的价格在COVID-19爆发之初大幅下跌，现在正在恢复到大流行前的水平。随着越来越多的人亲自重返工作岗位，美国经济的重新开放也迫使服装价格上涨。这样的涨价可能不会持续。</blockquote></p><p> “I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p><blockquote>投资公司麦凯·希尔兹(Mackay Shields)经济学家、纽约联邦储备银行前高级职员史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)表示：“我认为他们仍然强烈地认为我们所看到的只是暂时的。”</blockquote></p><p> Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是通货膨胀是否持续足够长的时间来影响公众的行为。如果美国人开始预期价格上涨，这些预期就会自我实现。</blockquote></p><p> So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，债券收益率和消费者调查表明，虽然预计短期内通胀会上升，但投资者和大多数公众预计长期内价格只会小幅上涨。鲍威尔长期以来一直坚持认为，公众对未来通胀的看法只是缓慢演变。</blockquote></p><p> “The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>美联储董事会六位理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德本月早些时候表示：“某些类别商品和服务的暂时大幅上涨似乎不太可能对长期通胀行为产生影响。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p><p><blockquote>因此，政策制定者可能会在本周开始讨论缩减购债规模。但在做出决定之前，可能还需要几个月的时间。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示：“我们必须提前思考、提前计划，因此我确实认为我们考虑未来可能出现的各种选择是有意义的。”本月早些时候接受雅虎财经采访。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被视为与鲍威尔关系密切的威廉姆斯表示，“在我看来，我们距离实现我们真正寻求的实质性进一步进展还有很长的路要走”，以开始放缓债券购买。</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是，美联储官员从未定义过实现充分就业和通胀率达到或略高于2%的双重目标的“实质性进一步进展”会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>弗里德曼表示，这是政策制定者需要讨论的一个问题，以及一旦开始缩减购债规模，他们将以多快的速度减少债券购买。另一个问题是他们是否应该以同样的速度减少购买国债和抵押贷款债券。一些经济学家赞成大幅减少抵押贷款债券的购买，他们认为，这现在为房地产市场提供了不必要的提振。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储还将更新季度经济和利率预测。许多经济学家预计，官员们将发出信号，他们预计将在2023年底开始提高基准利率。这将标志着一个转变：政策制定者此前在3月份的预测显示，2023年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员也可能大幅上调今年的通胀预期，但仅小幅上调未来两年的通胀预期，以表明他们预计物价上涨将减弱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c\">Associated Press</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136326531","content_text":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.\nIt will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.\nThe Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.\nPowell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.\nWith the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.\nBut the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.\nThat occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.\nHaving learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.\nLast week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.\nOther inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.\n“I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.\nAnother key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.\nSo far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.\n“The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.\nAs a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.\n“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.\nAt the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.\nAnother challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.\nThat’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.\nFed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}