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2021-09-04

Nice

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2021-08-22

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2021-08-17

👍

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2021-07-29

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S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>

2021-07-13

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2021-09-16

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2021-09-09

Nice

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2021-07-09

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2021-07-08

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$LETS GOOOO 🚀🚀

2021-10-02

Nice

3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote>

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06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185155570","media":"Barrons","summary":"Seventy-two S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. ","content":"<p>Seventy-two&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report earnings this week,&nbsp;as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights&nbsp;will include&nbsp;results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.</p><p><blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的临近，本周有72家标准普尔500指数公司公布了财报。美国几家大型银行上周开局良好。本周的财报亮点将包括电信、必需消费品、能源、科技、医疗保健和航空业著名公司的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685ba1e7f4763c12a3c0159fc2469ded\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Albertsons and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter &amp; Gamble,Halliburton,and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by&nbsp;Netflix&nbsp;and&nbsp;United Airlines Holdings&nbsp;after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森(Albertsons)和道富银行(State Street)将于周一启动。宝洁(Procter&amp;Gamble)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和强生(Johnson&amp;Johnson)是周二上午的亮点，收盘后紧随其后的是Netflix和联合航空控股(United Airlines Holdings)。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&amp;T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and&nbsp;Chipotle Mexican Grill&nbsp;report on Thursday, then&nbsp;American Express,Schlumberger,and&nbsp;Honeywell International&nbsp;close the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Verizon Communications、IBM和特斯拉将受到最多关注。AT&amp;T、美国航空集团、西南航空和Chipotle Mexican Grill将于周四发布报告，然后美国运通、Schlumberger和Honeywell International将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and&nbsp;IHS Markit’s&nbsp;Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济数据亮点包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会9月份领先经济指数和周五公布的IHS Markit 10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。所有这些都较前几个月的水平有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Other releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布的其他数据包括美联储最新的褐皮书，描述了美国各地的经济状况，以及两个9月份的房地产市场指标：人口普查局（Census Bureau）周二报告新的住宅建设数据，全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）周四报告现房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 10/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一10/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布9月份工业生产数据。继8月份增长0.4%后，经济学家预计增长0.20%。预计9月份产能利用率为76.5%，与8月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> Albertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森、飞利浦、Steel Dynamics和道富银行等公司发布了季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 10/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二10/19</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告9月份新住宅建设数据。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为162.3万套，8月为161.5万套。</blockquote></p><p> Halliburton, Procter &amp; Gamble, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿、宝洁、强生、Synchrony、Travelers、Philip Morris International、Kansas City Southern、WD-40、盈透证券集团、Netflix、万宝盛华、Dover和加拿大国家铁路等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 10/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三10/20</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布了关于央行12个地区当前经济状况的褐皮书。</blockquote></p><p> Abbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室、Biogen、NextEra Energy、ASML Holding、纳斯达克、加拿大太平洋铁路、Verizon Communications、CSX、Lam Research、特斯拉、IBM和Anthem讨论季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 10/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四10/21</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告9月份现房销售情况。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为610万套，而8月份为588万套。</blockquote></p><p> Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&amp;T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学、自由港麦克莫兰、原厂零件、西南航空、Valero Energy、Blackstone、Quest Diagnostics、Snap-on、Tractor Supply、Barclays、Danaher、AT&amp;T、Nucor、美国航空集团、AutoNation、Valero Energy、SL Green Realty、英特尔、Snap、Boston Beer、Mattel和Chipotle Mexican Grill在评级举办财报会议，讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Philadelphia Fed</b>&nbsp;diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.</p><p><blockquote><b>费城联储</b>衡量整体制造业活动的扩散指数预计将从9月份的30.7降至10月份的24。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布9月份领先经济指数。继8月份上涨0.90%后，预计上涨0.50%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 10/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五10/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b>&nbsp;the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit发布</b>10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业PMI普遍预期为60.3，服务业PMI预计为54.7，9月份分别为60.7和54.9。</blockquote></p><p> Whirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Whirlpool、Honeywell、Cleveland-Cliffs、Celanese、HCA Healthcare、Schlumberger、Seagate Technology Holdings、VF Corp.和American Express在评级举办投资者大会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, AT&T, Netflix, ASML, Snap and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>特斯拉、AT&amp;T、Netflix、ASML、Snap等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-18 06:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Seventy-two&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report earnings this week,&nbsp;as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights&nbsp;will include&nbsp;results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.</p><p><blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的临近，本周有72家标准普尔500指数公司公布了财报。美国几家大型银行上周开局良好。本周的财报亮点将包括电信、必需消费品、能源、科技、医疗保健和航空业著名公司的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685ba1e7f4763c12a3c0159fc2469ded\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2461\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Albertsons and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter &amp; Gamble,Halliburton,and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by&nbsp;Netflix&nbsp;and&nbsp;United Airlines Holdings&nbsp;after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森(Albertsons)和道富银行(State Street)将于周一启动。宝洁(Procter&amp;Gamble)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和强生(Johnson&amp;Johnson)是周二上午的亮点，收盘后紧随其后的是Netflix和联合航空控股(United Airlines Holdings)。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&amp;T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and&nbsp;Chipotle Mexican Grill&nbsp;report on Thursday, then&nbsp;American Express,Schlumberger,and&nbsp;Honeywell International&nbsp;close the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Verizon Communications、IBM和特斯拉将受到最多关注。AT&amp;T、美国航空集团、西南航空和Chipotle Mexican Grill将于周四发布报告，然后美国运通、Schlumberger和Honeywell International将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and&nbsp;IHS Markit’s&nbsp;Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济数据亮点包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会9月份领先经济指数和周五公布的IHS Markit 10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。所有这些都较前几个月的水平有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> Other releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布的其他数据包括美联储最新的褐皮书，描述了美国各地的经济状况，以及两个9月份的房地产市场指标：人口普查局（Census Bureau）周二报告新的住宅建设数据，全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）周四报告现房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 10/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一10/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布9月份工业生产数据。继8月份增长0.4%后，经济学家预计增长0.20%。预计9月份产能利用率为76.5%，与8月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> Albertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>艾伯森、飞利浦、Steel Dynamics和道富银行等公司发布了季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 10/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二10/19</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告9月份新住宅建设数据。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为162.3万套，8月为161.5万套。</blockquote></p><p> Halliburton, Procter &amp; Gamble, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>哈里伯顿、宝洁、强生、Synchrony、Travelers、Philip Morris International、Kansas City Southern、WD-40、盈透证券集团、Netflix、万宝盛华、Dover和加拿大国家铁路等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 10/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三10/20</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布了关于央行12个地区当前经济状况的褐皮书。</blockquote></p><p> Abbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室、Biogen、NextEra Energy、ASML Holding、纳斯达克、加拿大太平洋铁路、Verizon Communications、CSX、Lam Research、特斯拉、IBM和Anthem讨论季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 10/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四10/21</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告9月份现房销售情况。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为610万套，而8月份为588万套。</blockquote></p><p> Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&amp;T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学、自由港麦克莫兰、原厂零件、西南航空、Valero Energy、Blackstone、Quest Diagnostics、Snap-on、Tractor Supply、Barclays、Danaher、AT&amp;T、Nucor、美国航空集团、AutoNation、Valero Energy、SL Green Realty、英特尔、Snap、Boston Beer、Mattel和Chipotle Mexican Grill在评级举办财报会议，讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Philadelphia Fed</b>&nbsp;diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.</p><p><blockquote><b>费城联储</b>衡量整体制造业活动的扩散指数预计将从9月份的30.7降至10月份的24。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布9月份领先经济指数。继8月份上涨0.90%后，预计上涨0.50%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 10/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五10/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b>&nbsp;the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit发布</b>10月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业PMI普遍预期为60.3，服务业PMI预计为54.7，9月份分别为60.7和54.9。</blockquote></p><p> Whirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Whirlpool、Honeywell、Cleveland-Cliffs、Celanese、HCA Healthcare、Schlumberger、Seagate Technology Holdings、VF Corp.和American Express在评级举办投资者大会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-at-t-netflix-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51634497206?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","T":"At&T","AXP":"美国运通","UAL":"联合大陆航空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","INTC":"英特尔","NFLX":"奈飞","JNJ":"强生","TSLA":"特斯拉","LUV":"西南航空",".DJI":"道琼斯","AAL":"美国航空","CMG":"墨式烧烤","IBM":"IBM","HAL":"哈里伯顿"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-at-t-netflix-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51634497206?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185155570","content_text":"Seventy-two S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, as third-quarter earnings season ramps up. Several big U.S. banks got things off to a strong start last week. This week’s earnings highlights will include results from notable companies in telecom, consumer staples, energy, technology, health care, and the airline industry.\n\nAlbertsons and State Street get the ball rolling on Monday.Procter & Gamble,Halliburton,and Johnson & Johnson are Tuesday morning’s highlights, followed by Netflix and United Airlines Holdings after the market closes.\nOn Wednesday,Verizon Communications,IBM,and Tesla will get the most attention.AT&T, American Airlines Group,Southwest Airlines,and Chipotle Mexican Grill report on Thursday, then American Express,Schlumberger,and Honeywell International close the week on Friday.\nEconomic data highlights this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday and IHS Markit’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October on Friday. All are seen easing back from their prior months’ levels.\nOther releases this week include the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, describing economic conditions across the U.S., and a pair of September housing-market indicators: The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data on Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales on Thursday.\nMonday 10/18\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for September. Economists are looking for a 0.20% rise after a 0.4% increase in August. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.5% for September, roughly in line with August’s 76.4%.\nAlbertsons, Philips, Steel Dynamics, and State Street are among companies releasing quarterly financial results.\nTuesday 10/19\nThe Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623 million housing starts, compared with 1.615 million in August.\nHalliburton, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Synchrony, Travelers, Philip Morris International, Kansas City Southern, WD-40, Interactive Brokers Group, Netflix, ManpowerGroup, Dover, and Canadian National Railway are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nWednesday 10/20\nThe Federal Reserve releases its beige book about current economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts.\nAbbott Laboratories, Biogen, NextEra Energy, ASML Holding, Nasdaq, Canadian Pacific Railway, Verizon Communications, CSX, Lam Research, Tesla, IBM, and Anthem discuss quarterly financial results.\nThursday 10/21\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million homes sold, compared with 5.88 million homes in August.\nDow, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Blackstone, Quest Diagnostics, Snap-on, Tractor Supply, Barclays, Danaher, AT&T, Nucor, American Airlines Group, AutoNation, Valero Energy, SL Green Realty, Intel, Snap, Boston Beer, Mattel, and Chipotle Mexican Grill host earnings conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Philadelphia Fed diffusion index, a measure of overall manufacturing activity, is expected to fall to 24 in October from September’s 30.7 reading.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for September. Expectations are for a 0.50% rise, after August’s 0.90% gain.\nFriday 10/22\nIHS Markit releases the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for October. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.3, while the Services PMI is expected to be 54.7, compared with 60.7 and 54.9, respectively, in September.\nWhirlpool, Honeywell, Cleveland-Cliffs, Celanese, HCA Healthcare, Schlumberger, Seagate Technology Holdings, VF Corp., and American Express host investor conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9,"CMG":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"T":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"LUV":0.9,"AXP":0.9,"UAL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"HAL":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822862832,"gmtCreate":1634115636547,"gmtModify":1634115636609,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822862832","repostId":"1128013964","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128013964","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634114646,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128013964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading<blockquote>BBIG股价在盘前交易中又飙升7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128013964","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"BBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading after rising 20% yesterday.\n\nOne of the red-hot st","content":"<p>BBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;rising 20% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>BBIG股价继昨天上涨20%后，在盘前交易中又飙升7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16b6bb2a5f5ceed34ed6561a7b64896\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One of the red-hot stocks that’s generating a lot of retail investor interest of late is&nbsp;<b>Vinco Ventures</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>BBIG</u></b>). Indeed, yesterday’s 20 rise in BBIG stock is among a number of rallies over the past five trading days. Over this timeframe, BBIG stock has provided investors with gains of more than 20%. That is, for those with the guts to invest in this high-volatility name.</p><p><blockquote>最近引起散户投资者兴趣的热门股票之一是<b>Vinco Ventures</b>（纳斯达克：<b><u>BBIG</u></b>).事实上，BBIG股票昨天上涨20点是过去五个交易日中的一系列上涨之一。在此期间，BBIG股票为投资者带来了超过20%的涨幅。也就是说，对于那些有勇气投资这个高波动性名称的人来说。</blockquote></p><p> Putting BBIG stock in perspective, this is a company that started the year around $1.35 per share. Since then, shares soared to nearly $12.50 per share last month before settling down to below $5 per share last week. What was a near 10-bagger has turned into a five-bagger. For those holding onto this stock long term, perhaps this volatility is nothing to be concerned with.</p><p><blockquote>从BBIG股票的角度来看，这家公司今年年初的股价约为每股1.35美元。此后，该股上个月飙升至每股近12.50美元，上周跌至每股5美元以下。将近10袋的人变成了5袋的人。对于那些长期持有这只股票的人来说，也许这种波动没什么好担心的。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons behind the rapid ebb and flow of BBIG stock has been this company’s&nbsp;relatively high short interest. Indeed, any highly shorted stock is one that’s likely to give retail investors goosebumps. We’ve all seen the rallies in other short squeeze stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>BBIG股票快速涨跌背后的原因之一是该公司相对较高的空头兴趣。事实上，任何被高度做空的股票都可能让散户投资者起鸡皮疙瘩。今年我们都看到了其他轧空股票的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> However, there’s another catalyst investors appear to be jumping. Let’s dive into what’s propelling Vinco Ventures higher right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者似乎正在寻找另一个催化剂。让我们深入了解一下现在是什么推动Vinco Ventures走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BBIG Stock Surges Ahead of Key Crypto Catalyst</b></p><p><blockquote><b>BBIG股价在关键加密货币催化剂之前飙升</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday, investors appear to be pricing in enthusiasm around a key crypto update set to be unveiled this Friday. Vinco Ventures recently provided investors with a&nbsp;proxy statement&nbsp;for a spinoff. Titled&nbsp;<b>Cryptyde</b>, this spinoff will aim to allow the company to&nbsp;leverage its blockchain technologies&nbsp;further. By doing so, the company will “disrupt consumer facing industries.”</p><p><blockquote>昨天，投资者似乎对将于本周五公布的关键加密更新充满热情。Vinco Ventures最近向投资者提供了一份分拆委托书。标题<b>隐窝</b>此次分拆旨在让该公司进一步利用其区块链技术。通过这样做，该公司将“颠覆面向消费者的行业”。</blockquote></p><p> Sounds good to me.</p><p><blockquote>听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be growing increasingly bullish on crypto-related stocks. Crypto prices have continued to surge in recent weeks. Accordingly, companies such as Vinco Ventures that are not only short-squeeze plays but also ones with crypto exposure, represent perhaps the holy grail for speculators right now.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎越来越看好加密货币相关股票。最近几周，加密货币价格持续飙升。因此，像Vinco Ventures这样的公司不仅是空头挤压公司，而且还拥有加密货币敞口，也许是目前投机者的圣杯。</blockquote></p><p> How this spinoff ultimately pans out remains to be seen. However, expectations are that BBIG stock could remain a highly volatile one for some time.</p><p><blockquote>这一分拆最终结果如何还有待观察。然而，预计BBIG股票可能会在一段时间内保持高度波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading<blockquote>BBIG股价在盘前交易中又飙升7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading<blockquote>BBIG股价在盘前交易中又飙升7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 16:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;rising 20% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>BBIG股价继昨天上涨20%后，在盘前交易中又飙升7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16b6bb2a5f5ceed34ed6561a7b64896\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One of the red-hot stocks that’s generating a lot of retail investor interest of late is&nbsp;<b>Vinco Ventures</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>BBIG</u></b>). Indeed, yesterday’s 20 rise in BBIG stock is among a number of rallies over the past five trading days. Over this timeframe, BBIG stock has provided investors with gains of more than 20%. That is, for those with the guts to invest in this high-volatility name.</p><p><blockquote>最近引起散户投资者兴趣的热门股票之一是<b>Vinco Ventures</b>（纳斯达克：<b><u>BBIG</u></b>).事实上，BBIG股票昨天上涨20点是过去五个交易日中的一系列上涨之一。在此期间，BBIG股票为投资者带来了超过20%的涨幅。也就是说，对于那些有勇气投资这个高波动性名称的人来说。</blockquote></p><p> Putting BBIG stock in perspective, this is a company that started the year around $1.35 per share. Since then, shares soared to nearly $12.50 per share last month before settling down to below $5 per share last week. What was a near 10-bagger has turned into a five-bagger. For those holding onto this stock long term, perhaps this volatility is nothing to be concerned with.</p><p><blockquote>从BBIG股票的角度来看，这家公司今年年初的股价约为每股1.35美元。此后，该股上个月飙升至每股近12.50美元，上周跌至每股5美元以下。将近10袋的人变成了5袋的人。对于那些长期持有这只股票的人来说，也许这种波动没什么好担心的。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons behind the rapid ebb and flow of BBIG stock has been this company’s&nbsp;relatively high short interest. Indeed, any highly shorted stock is one that’s likely to give retail investors goosebumps. We’ve all seen the rallies in other short squeeze stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>BBIG股票快速涨跌背后的原因之一是该公司相对较高的空头兴趣。事实上，任何被高度做空的股票都可能让散户投资者起鸡皮疙瘩。今年我们都看到了其他轧空股票的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> However, there’s another catalyst investors appear to be jumping. Let’s dive into what’s propelling Vinco Ventures higher right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者似乎正在寻找另一个催化剂。让我们深入了解一下现在是什么推动Vinco Ventures走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BBIG Stock Surges Ahead of Key Crypto Catalyst</b></p><p><blockquote><b>BBIG股价在关键加密货币催化剂之前飙升</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday, investors appear to be pricing in enthusiasm around a key crypto update set to be unveiled this Friday. Vinco Ventures recently provided investors with a&nbsp;proxy statement&nbsp;for a spinoff. Titled&nbsp;<b>Cryptyde</b>, this spinoff will aim to allow the company to&nbsp;leverage its blockchain technologies&nbsp;further. By doing so, the company will “disrupt consumer facing industries.”</p><p><blockquote>昨天，投资者似乎对将于本周五公布的关键加密更新充满热情。Vinco Ventures最近向投资者提供了一份分拆委托书。标题<b>隐窝</b>此次分拆旨在让该公司进一步利用其区块链技术。通过这样做，该公司将“颠覆面向消费者的行业”。</blockquote></p><p> Sounds good to me.</p><p><blockquote>听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be growing increasingly bullish on crypto-related stocks. Crypto prices have continued to surge in recent weeks. Accordingly, companies such as Vinco Ventures that are not only short-squeeze plays but also ones with crypto exposure, represent perhaps the holy grail for speculators right now.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎越来越看好加密货币相关股票。最近几周，加密货币价格持续飙升。因此，像Vinco Ventures这样的公司不仅是空头挤压公司，而且还拥有加密货币敞口，也许是目前投机者的圣杯。</blockquote></p><p> How this spinoff ultimately pans out remains to be seen. However, expectations are that BBIG stock could remain a highly volatile one for some time.</p><p><blockquote>这一分拆最终结果如何还有待观察。然而，预计BBIG股票可能会在一段时间内保持高度波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBIG":"Vinco Ventures, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128013964","content_text":"BBIG stock surged another 7% in premarket trading after rising 20% yesterday.\n\nOne of the red-hot stocks that’s generating a lot of retail investor interest of late is Vinco Ventures(NASDAQ:BBIG). Indeed, yesterday’s 20 rise in BBIG stock is among a number of rallies over the past five trading days. Over this timeframe, BBIG stock has provided investors with gains of more than 20%. That is, for those with the guts to invest in this high-volatility name.\nPutting BBIG stock in perspective, this is a company that started the year around $1.35 per share. Since then, shares soared to nearly $12.50 per share last month before settling down to below $5 per share last week. What was a near 10-bagger has turned into a five-bagger. For those holding onto this stock long term, perhaps this volatility is nothing to be concerned with.\nOne of the reasons behind the rapid ebb and flow of BBIG stock has been this company’s relatively high short interest. Indeed, any highly shorted stock is one that’s likely to give retail investors goosebumps. We’ve all seen the rallies in other short squeeze stocks this year.\nHowever, there’s another catalyst investors appear to be jumping. Let’s dive into what’s propelling Vinco Ventures higher right now.\nBBIG Stock Surges Ahead of Key Crypto Catalyst\nYesterday, investors appear to be pricing in enthusiasm around a key crypto update set to be unveiled this Friday. Vinco Ventures recently provided investors with a proxy statement for a spinoff. Titled Cryptyde, this spinoff will aim to allow the company to leverage its blockchain technologies further. By doing so, the company will “disrupt consumer facing industries.”\nSounds good to me.\nInvestors appear to be growing increasingly bullish on crypto-related stocks. Crypto prices have continued to surge in recent weeks. Accordingly, companies such as Vinco Ventures that are not only short-squeeze plays but also ones with crypto exposure, represent perhaps the holy grail for speculators right now.\nHow this spinoff ultimately pans out remains to be seen. However, expectations are that BBIG stock could remain a highly volatile one for some time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBIG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828154706,"gmtCreate":1633873933571,"gmtModify":1633873933627,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828154706","repostId":"1194780749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867001801,"gmtCreate":1633157027469,"gmtModify":1633157027663,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867001801","repostId":"1134305481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134305481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633152909,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134305481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-02 13:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134305481","media":"The motley fool","summary":"Key Points\n\nCrocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this mo","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Crocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this month.</li>  <li>AMC would have to double from here to revisit its June highs. Check the upcoming theatrical release slate to know why movie theaters are about to get a whole lot better.</li>  <li>Upstart is revolutionizing the way creditworthiness is determined in consumer loans, and it's laughing all the way to the bank.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Crocs今年每个季度都上调了指引。它将于本月晚些时候再次报道。</li><li>AMC必须在此基础上翻一番才能重温6月份的高点。查看即将上映的影院上映名单，了解为什么电影院会变得更好。</li><li>Upstart正在彻底改变消费贷款中确定信用度的方式，并且一直笑到银行。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> It's been a volatile year for stocks, but naturally some investments have fared better than others. Over 300 stocks have more than doubled in 2021. Many of those winning investments will be lucky if they can hold those gains through the final three months of the year, but what about the names that have the potential to double again?</p><p><blockquote>对于股市来说，今年是动荡的一年，但自然有些投资的表现比其他投资更好。超过300只股票在2021年上涨了一倍多。如果许多获胜的投资能够在今年最后三个月保持这些收益，那将是幸运的，但那些有潜力再次翻倍的投资呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crocs</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:CROX),<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), and<b>Upstart</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:UPST)have more than doubled in value through the first nine months of 2021. Let's see why they have what it takes to possibly repeat the feat in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote><b>卡骆驰</b>（纳斯达克：CROX），<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC），以及<b>暴发户</b>（纳斯达克：UPST）的价值在2021年前9个月翻了一番多。让我们看看为什么他们有能力在第四季度重复这一壮举。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Crocs</p><p><blockquote>1.Crocs</blockquote></p><p> Remember those bright rubbery shoes with holes in them? They're back in a big way. Crocs sales are booming since the pandemic began, and the stock is following suit with a 129% increase through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>还记得那双有洞的亮色胶鞋吗？他们大举回来了。自疫情爆发以来，Crocs的销量一直在蓬勃发展，该股也紧随其后，在2021年前9个月上涨了129%。</blockquote></p><p> The comfortable resin shoes were already making a comeback before the COVID-19 crisis with double-digit revenue growth in 2019 before repeating the feat in 2020. Momentum is what's really taking Crocs to a higher level in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>舒适的树脂鞋在新冠肺炎危机之前就已经卷土重来，2019年的收入实现了两位数的增长，然后在2020年重复了这一壮举。动力才是真正让Crocs在2021年更上一层楼的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The year began with the footwear maker projecting 20%-to-25% top-line growth for the entire year back in February. Guidance was bumped higher -- to between 40% and 50% growth -- the following quarter. It happened again this summer, with Crocs now targeting a 60%-to-65% surge in revenue for all of 2021. What do you think will happen if those targets get pushed even higher when it reports third-quarter results later this month?</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，这家鞋类制造商在2月份预计全年营收将增长20%至25%。下个季度的指引被上调至40%至50%之间。这种情况在今年夏天再次发生，Crocs现在的目标是2021年全年收入增长60%至65%。如果本月晚些时候公布第三季度业绩时这些目标被推得更高，您认为会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Despite a stock that has popped nearly sixfold since the start of 2019, Crocs is reasonably priced given its accelerating growth. It's trading at 21 times this year's earnings and just 17 times next year's target. There's clearly room to increase those multiples, and Wall Street's finally as comfortable with Crocs as an investment as its customers are in its shoes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自2019年初以来，Crocs的股价已上涨近六倍，但鉴于其加速增长，其定价合理。该公司今年市盈率为21倍，明年目标市盈率仅为17倍。显然还有增加这些市盈率的空间，华尔街终于像客户一样对Crocs作为一项投资感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> 2. AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>2.AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> You may be surprised to find the country's leading multiplex operator on this list, but plot twists are what make movies so good. It's certainly true that AMC Entertainment has appreciated -- in terms of both stock price and a fivefold explosion in shares outstanding -- to the point where its valuation is out of whack relative to its peers'. If you want a pure investing play on the movie theater industry's recovery, you will find more attractively priced stocks toscratchthatitch.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现这个国家领先的多厅影院运营商在这个名单上，但情节曲折是电影如此优秀的原因。AMC院线确实已经升值——无论是股价还是流通股数量都增长了五倍——以至于其估值相对于同行来说已经不正常了。如果您想对电影院行业的复苏进行纯粹的投资，您会发现价格更具吸引力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, as ameme stockand cultural phenomenon it's hard to argue against what AMC has done to translate its popularity among retail investors into a legitimate market share grab in the recovery process. No company has seen its market cap inflate as much as AMC has this year, but this is also a stock that enters the fourth quarter with a stock price that is a little more than half of what it was when it peaked in June. In short, it would have to double from here to revisit its all-time high -- but isn't that always possible with the poster child for 2021 momentum stocks?</p><p><blockquote>然而，作为一种流行的股票和文化现象，很难否认AMC在复苏过程中将其在散户投资者中的受欢迎程度转化为合法的市场份额抢夺。今年没有一家公司的市值像AMC那样膨胀，但这也是一只进入第四季度的股票，股价仅为6月份峰值时的一半多一点。简而言之，它必须在这里翻倍才能重温历史高点——但对于2021年动量股的典型代表来说，这难道不总是可能的吗？</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally speaking, the catalysts are also there.<i>Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings</i>shattered box office records over Labor Day weekend, but the initial excitement fizzled out when subsequent weekends were abysmal. However, it's all about the pipeline. Studios pushed out September releases into October and beyond when the delta variant resulted in a spike in COVID-19 cases. We're now seeing the highly anticipated films start to come back, starting with the new James Bond movie next weekend. The fourth quarter should be a lot stronger for the industry than the naysayers think, and if AMC stock gets back to where it was in early June -- fundamentally earned this time -- it will have to double from here.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，催化剂也在。<i>尚气与十环传说</i>劳动节周末打破了票房记录，但最初的兴奋随着随后的周末糟糕透顶而消失。然而，这一切都与管道有关。当德尔塔变异毒株导致新冠肺炎病例激增时，电影公司将9月的上映推迟到10月及以后。我们现在看到备受期待的电影开始回归，从下周末的新詹姆斯·邦德电影开始。该行业第四季度的表现应该比反对者想象的要强劲得多，如果AMC股价回到6月初的水平——这次基本上是盈利的——那么它将不得不在此基础上翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Upstart</p><p><blockquote>3.暴发户</blockquote></p><p> I love when industries ripe for disruption get upended, and that's what Upstart is doing with the lending industry. Upstart usesartificial intelligenceand machine learning to make better calls on assessing risk profiles and creditworthiness for folks who don't typically get approved for consumer loans.</p><p><blockquote>我喜欢颠覆成熟的行业被颠覆，这就是Upstart在贷款行业所做的事情。Upstart使用人工智能和机器学习来更好地评级评估那些通常不会获得消费贷款批准的人的风险状况和信用度。</blockquote></p><p> Growth is bonkers. Revenue seemed to be decelerating sharply, with slowing growth spurts of 89%, 52%, and 27% in the last three years respectively. Now that consumers are becoming aware of Upstart as a better alternative to payday loans and other predatory lending products, business is skyrocketing. Revenue rose 90% in the first quarter, only to surge 1,018% in its latest report. And no, that's not a typo.</p><p><blockquote>增长是疯狂的。收入似乎正在急剧减速，过去三年的增长分别放缓了89%、52%和27%。现在，消费者开始意识到Upstart是发薪日贷款和其他掠夺性贷款产品的更好替代品，业务正在飙升。第一季度收入增长90%，但在最新报告中却飙升了1,018%。不，这不是错别字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With Upstart now expanding into the auto loans market, the potential for its better alternative to stodgy credit scores is just getting started. The stock has been a seven-bagger through the first three quarters of 2021, but the runway is long for this disruptive jet.</p><p><blockquote>随着Upstart现在扩展到汽车贷款市场，其更好的替代乏味信用评分的潜力才刚刚开始。该股在2021年前三个季度已上涨七倍，但对于这款颠覆性喷气式飞机来说，跑道还很长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-02 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Crocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this month.</li>  <li>AMC would have to double from here to revisit its June highs. Check the upcoming theatrical release slate to know why movie theaters are about to get a whole lot better.</li>  <li>Upstart is revolutionizing the way creditworthiness is determined in consumer loans, and it's laughing all the way to the bank.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Crocs今年每个季度都上调了指引。它将于本月晚些时候再次报道。</li><li>AMC必须在此基础上翻一番才能重温6月份的高点。查看即将上映的影院上映名单，了解为什么电影院会变得更好。</li><li>Upstart正在彻底改变消费贷款中确定信用度的方式，并且一直笑到银行。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> It's been a volatile year for stocks, but naturally some investments have fared better than others. Over 300 stocks have more than doubled in 2021. Many of those winning investments will be lucky if they can hold those gains through the final three months of the year, but what about the names that have the potential to double again?</p><p><blockquote>对于股市来说，今年是动荡的一年，但自然有些投资的表现比其他投资更好。超过300只股票在2021年上涨了一倍多。如果许多获胜的投资能够在今年最后三个月保持这些收益，那将是幸运的，但那些有潜力再次翻倍的投资呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crocs</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:CROX),<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), and<b>Upstart</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:UPST)have more than doubled in value through the first nine months of 2021. Let's see why they have what it takes to possibly repeat the feat in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote><b>卡骆驰</b>（纳斯达克：CROX），<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC），以及<b>暴发户</b>（纳斯达克：UPST）的价值在2021年前9个月翻了一番多。让我们看看为什么他们有能力在第四季度重复这一壮举。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Crocs</p><p><blockquote>1.Crocs</blockquote></p><p> Remember those bright rubbery shoes with holes in them? They're back in a big way. Crocs sales are booming since the pandemic began, and the stock is following suit with a 129% increase through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>还记得那双有洞的亮色胶鞋吗？他们大举回来了。自疫情爆发以来，Crocs的销量一直在蓬勃发展，该股也紧随其后，在2021年前9个月上涨了129%。</blockquote></p><p> The comfortable resin shoes were already making a comeback before the COVID-19 crisis with double-digit revenue growth in 2019 before repeating the feat in 2020. Momentum is what's really taking Crocs to a higher level in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>舒适的树脂鞋在新冠肺炎危机之前就已经卷土重来，2019年的收入实现了两位数的增长，然后在2020年重复了这一壮举。动力才是真正让Crocs在2021年更上一层楼的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The year began with the footwear maker projecting 20%-to-25% top-line growth for the entire year back in February. Guidance was bumped higher -- to between 40% and 50% growth -- the following quarter. It happened again this summer, with Crocs now targeting a 60%-to-65% surge in revenue for all of 2021. What do you think will happen if those targets get pushed even higher when it reports third-quarter results later this month?</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，这家鞋类制造商在2月份预计全年营收将增长20%至25%。下个季度的指引被上调至40%至50%之间。这种情况在今年夏天再次发生，Crocs现在的目标是2021年全年收入增长60%至65%。如果本月晚些时候公布第三季度业绩时这些目标被推得更高，您认为会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Despite a stock that has popped nearly sixfold since the start of 2019, Crocs is reasonably priced given its accelerating growth. It's trading at 21 times this year's earnings and just 17 times next year's target. There's clearly room to increase those multiples, and Wall Street's finally as comfortable with Crocs as an investment as its customers are in its shoes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自2019年初以来，Crocs的股价已上涨近六倍，但鉴于其加速增长，其定价合理。该公司今年市盈率为21倍，明年目标市盈率仅为17倍。显然还有增加这些市盈率的空间，华尔街终于像客户一样对Crocs作为一项投资感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> 2. AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>2.AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> You may be surprised to find the country's leading multiplex operator on this list, but plot twists are what make movies so good. It's certainly true that AMC Entertainment has appreciated -- in terms of both stock price and a fivefold explosion in shares outstanding -- to the point where its valuation is out of whack relative to its peers'. If you want a pure investing play on the movie theater industry's recovery, you will find more attractively priced stocks toscratchthatitch.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现这个国家领先的多厅影院运营商在这个名单上，但情节曲折是电影如此优秀的原因。AMC院线确实已经升值——无论是股价还是流通股数量都增长了五倍——以至于其估值相对于同行来说已经不正常了。如果您想对电影院行业的复苏进行纯粹的投资，您会发现价格更具吸引力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, as ameme stockand cultural phenomenon it's hard to argue against what AMC has done to translate its popularity among retail investors into a legitimate market share grab in the recovery process. No company has seen its market cap inflate as much as AMC has this year, but this is also a stock that enters the fourth quarter with a stock price that is a little more than half of what it was when it peaked in June. In short, it would have to double from here to revisit its all-time high -- but isn't that always possible with the poster child for 2021 momentum stocks?</p><p><blockquote>然而，作为一种流行的股票和文化现象，很难否认AMC在复苏过程中将其在散户投资者中的受欢迎程度转化为合法的市场份额抢夺。今年没有一家公司的市值像AMC那样膨胀，但这也是一只进入第四季度的股票，股价仅为6月份峰值时的一半多一点。简而言之，它必须在这里翻倍才能重温历史高点——但对于2021年动量股的典型代表来说，这难道不总是可能的吗？</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally speaking, the catalysts are also there.<i>Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings</i>shattered box office records over Labor Day weekend, but the initial excitement fizzled out when subsequent weekends were abysmal. However, it's all about the pipeline. Studios pushed out September releases into October and beyond when the delta variant resulted in a spike in COVID-19 cases. We're now seeing the highly anticipated films start to come back, starting with the new James Bond movie next weekend. The fourth quarter should be a lot stronger for the industry than the naysayers think, and if AMC stock gets back to where it was in early June -- fundamentally earned this time -- it will have to double from here.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，催化剂也在。<i>尚气与十环传说</i>劳动节周末打破了票房记录，但最初的兴奋随着随后的周末糟糕透顶而消失。然而，这一切都与管道有关。当德尔塔变异毒株导致新冠肺炎病例激增时，电影公司将9月的上映推迟到10月及以后。我们现在看到备受期待的电影开始回归，从下周末的新詹姆斯·邦德电影开始。该行业第四季度的表现应该比反对者想象的要强劲得多，如果AMC股价回到6月初的水平——这次基本上是盈利的——那么它将不得不在此基础上翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Upstart</p><p><blockquote>3.暴发户</blockquote></p><p> I love when industries ripe for disruption get upended, and that's what Upstart is doing with the lending industry. Upstart usesartificial intelligenceand machine learning to make better calls on assessing risk profiles and creditworthiness for folks who don't typically get approved for consumer loans.</p><p><blockquote>我喜欢颠覆成熟的行业被颠覆，这就是Upstart在贷款行业所做的事情。Upstart使用人工智能和机器学习来更好地评级评估那些通常不会获得消费贷款批准的人的风险状况和信用度。</blockquote></p><p> Growth is bonkers. Revenue seemed to be decelerating sharply, with slowing growth spurts of 89%, 52%, and 27% in the last three years respectively. Now that consumers are becoming aware of Upstart as a better alternative to payday loans and other predatory lending products, business is skyrocketing. Revenue rose 90% in the first quarter, only to surge 1,018% in its latest report. And no, that's not a typo.</p><p><blockquote>增长是疯狂的。收入似乎正在急剧减速，过去三年的增长分别放缓了89%、52%和27%。现在，消费者开始意识到Upstart是发薪日贷款和其他掠夺性贷款产品的更好替代品，业务正在飙升。第一季度收入增长90%，但在最新报告中却飙升了1,018%。不，这不是错别字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With Upstart now expanding into the auto loans market, the potential for its better alternative to stodgy credit scores is just getting started. The stock has been a seven-bagger through the first three quarters of 2021, but the runway is long for this disruptive jet.</p><p><blockquote>随着Upstart现在扩展到汽车贷款市场，其更好的替代乏味信用评分的潜力才刚刚开始。该股在2021年前三个季度已上涨七倍，但对于这款颠覆性喷气式飞机来说，跑道还很长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/01/3-stocks-that-can-double-again-in-the-fourth-quart/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","CROX":"卡骆驰"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/01/3-stocks-that-can-double-again-in-the-fourth-quart/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134305481","content_text":"Key Points\n\nCrocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this month.\nAMC would have to double from here to revisit its June highs. Check the upcoming theatrical release slate to know why movie theaters are about to get a whole lot better.\nUpstart is revolutionizing the way creditworthiness is determined in consumer loans, and it's laughing all the way to the bank.\n\n\nIt's been a volatile year for stocks, but naturally some investments have fared better than others. Over 300 stocks have more than doubled in 2021. Many of those winning investments will be lucky if they can hold those gains through the final three months of the year, but what about the names that have the potential to double again?\nCrocs (NASDAQ:CROX),AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC), andUpstart (NASDAQ:UPST)have more than doubled in value through the first nine months of 2021. Let's see why they have what it takes to possibly repeat the feat in the fourth quarter.\n1. Crocs\nRemember those bright rubbery shoes with holes in them? They're back in a big way. Crocs sales are booming since the pandemic began, and the stock is following suit with a 129% increase through the first nine months of 2021.\nThe comfortable resin shoes were already making a comeback before the COVID-19 crisis with double-digit revenue growth in 2019 before repeating the feat in 2020. Momentum is what's really taking Crocs to a higher level in 2021.\nThe year began with the footwear maker projecting 20%-to-25% top-line growth for the entire year back in February. Guidance was bumped higher -- to between 40% and 50% growth -- the following quarter. It happened again this summer, with Crocs now targeting a 60%-to-65% surge in revenue for all of 2021. What do you think will happen if those targets get pushed even higher when it reports third-quarter results later this month?\nDespite a stock that has popped nearly sixfold since the start of 2019, Crocs is reasonably priced given its accelerating growth. It's trading at 21 times this year's earnings and just 17 times next year's target. There's clearly room to increase those multiples, and Wall Street's finally as comfortable with Crocs as an investment as its customers are in its shoes.\n2. AMC Entertainment\nYou may be surprised to find the country's leading multiplex operator on this list, but plot twists are what make movies so good. It's certainly true that AMC Entertainment has appreciated -- in terms of both stock price and a fivefold explosion in shares outstanding -- to the point where its valuation is out of whack relative to its peers'. If you want a pure investing play on the movie theater industry's recovery, you will find more attractively priced stocks toscratchthatitch.\nHowever, as ameme stockand cultural phenomenon it's hard to argue against what AMC has done to translate its popularity among retail investors into a legitimate market share grab in the recovery process. No company has seen its market cap inflate as much as AMC has this year, but this is also a stock that enters the fourth quarter with a stock price that is a little more than half of what it was when it peaked in June. In short, it would have to double from here to revisit its all-time high -- but isn't that always possible with the poster child for 2021 momentum stocks?\nFundamentally speaking, the catalysts are also there.Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Ringsshattered box office records over Labor Day weekend, but the initial excitement fizzled out when subsequent weekends were abysmal. However, it's all about the pipeline. Studios pushed out September releases into October and beyond when the delta variant resulted in a spike in COVID-19 cases. We're now seeing the highly anticipated films start to come back, starting with the new James Bond movie next weekend. The fourth quarter should be a lot stronger for the industry than the naysayers think, and if AMC stock gets back to where it was in early June -- fundamentally earned this time -- it will have to double from here.\n3. Upstart\nI love when industries ripe for disruption get upended, and that's what Upstart is doing with the lending industry. Upstart usesartificial intelligenceand machine learning to make better calls on assessing risk profiles and creditworthiness for folks who don't typically get approved for consumer loans.\nGrowth is bonkers. Revenue seemed to be decelerating sharply, with slowing growth spurts of 89%, 52%, and 27% in the last three years respectively. Now that consumers are becoming aware of Upstart as a better alternative to payday loans and other predatory lending products, business is skyrocketing. Revenue rose 90% in the first quarter, only to surge 1,018% in its latest report. And no, that's not a typo.\nWith Upstart now expanding into the auto loans market, the potential for its better alternative to stodgy credit scores is just getting started. The stock has been a seven-bagger through the first three quarters of 2021, but the runway is long for this disruptive jet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UPST":0.9,"CROX":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884168026,"gmtCreate":1631868321265,"gmtModify":1631889125452,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884168026","repostId":"1131470509","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131470509","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631866862,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131470509?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 16:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股盘前交易上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131470509","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks rose in premarket trading.Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid and Nikola shares climbed between","content":"<p>EV stocks rose in premarket trading.Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nikola&nbsp;shares&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.&nbsp;While&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;stock&nbsp;fell&nbsp;slightly&nbsp;0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中上涨。蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、Lucid和Nikola股价上涨1%至6%。而特斯拉股价小幅下跌0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ac80f29f71e10a6a0bdb3b506e04a9\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股盘前交易上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>电动汽车股盘前交易上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-17 16:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks rose in premarket trading.Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nikola&nbsp;shares&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.&nbsp;While&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;stock&nbsp;fell&nbsp;slightly&nbsp;0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中上涨。蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、Lucid和Nikola股价上涨1%至6%。而特斯拉股价小幅下跌0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ac80f29f71e10a6a0bdb3b506e04a9\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131470509","content_text":"EV stocks rose in premarket trading.Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid and Nikola shares climbed between 1% and 6%. While Tesla stock fell slightly 0.2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885803548,"gmtCreate":1631772036684,"gmtModify":1631889125454,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;👍","listText":"&nbsp;👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885803548","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889404085,"gmtCreate":1631165188047,"gmtModify":1631889125457,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889404085","repostId":"2165399556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814953111,"gmtCreate":1630749207133,"gmtModify":1631889125460,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814953111","repostId":"1194566233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834936541,"gmtCreate":1629766032483,"gmtModify":1631889125463,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834936541","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832941056,"gmtCreate":1629575399075,"gmtModify":1631889125468,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832941056","repostId":"2161149745","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833352350,"gmtCreate":1629207647970,"gmtModify":1631889125469,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833352350","repostId":"1115558959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830259202,"gmtCreate":1629077150506,"gmtModify":1631889125473,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listTe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06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯控股、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129589874","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.","content":"<p>It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday.&nbsp;Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>现在是第二季度财报季的最后几局，零售商已准备好采取行动。沃尔玛和家得宝周二发布报告，劳氏、塔吉特和TJX周三紧随其后。美国柯尔百货公司、梅西百货、BJ批发和L品牌是周四的零售亮点，然后Foot Locker将于周五结束本周。</blockquote></p><p> The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a&nbsp;0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.</p><p><blockquote>人口普查局7月份零售销售数据也将于本周周二公布。经济学家平均预测，上个月经季节性调整后的增长率为0。</blockquote></p><p> Major non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and&nbsp;Krispy Kreme&nbsp;on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and&nbsp;Lumentum Holdings&nbsp;all report.Applied Materials&nbsp;goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布业绩的主要非零售公司包括周二发布业绩的Pandora和Krispy Kreme，随后是繁忙的周三：Nvidia、腾讯控股控股公司、思科系统公司、Analog Devices和Lumentum Holdings均发布业绩。应用材料公司周四公布业绩，Deere公司本周收盘周五。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include several housing-market metrics:&nbsp;The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括几项房地产市场指标：周二公布的全国住宅建筑商协会8月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数，以及周三公布的人口普查局7月份新住宅建设报告。</blockquote></p><p> Also on Wednesday, the&nbsp;Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周三，美联储货币政策委员会公布了7月底上次会议的纪要。然后，世界大型企业联合会将于周四公布7月份领先经济指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 8/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一8/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and&nbsp;Clear Secure&nbsp;are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团、Tokyo Electron和Clear Secure等公司在评级举行财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>纽约银行发布八月份帝国州制造业调查。普遍估计读数为26.5。相比之下，7月份的历史新高为43.0，当时总体商业状况指数上涨了26点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 8/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二8/17</b></blockquote></p><p> BHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>必和必拓、沃尔玛、家得宝、安捷伦科技、Pandora和Krispy Kreme等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> America’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry &amp; Associates,and&nbsp;La-Z-Boy&nbsp;report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.</p><p><blockquote>America's Car-Mart、Jack Henry&amp;Associates和La-Z-Boy在收盘后报告财务业绩，并将于第二天（8月18日）上午举行收益评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布7月工业部门产能利用率。评级共识为75.7%，与6月份的75.4%几乎没有变化。工业生产预计将比6月份经季节调整后的0.4%增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了8月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。经济学家预测读数为80，与7月份相同。该指数较11月份创下的历史高点90有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Federal Reserve Board</b>&nbsp;Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦储备委员会</b>主席杰伊·鲍威尔将与教育工作者和学生一起主持一个虚拟市政厅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau reports</b>&nbsp;retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局报告</b>7月零售销售数据。继6月份上涨0.6%后，预计经季节调整后环比下降0.3%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.2%，而上个月为增长1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 8/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三8/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market</b>&nbsp;Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场</b>委员会公布了7月底货币政策会议的纪要。</blockquote></p><p> Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>思科系统、劳氏、塔吉特、TJX、腾讯控股控股、Brinker International、Analog Devices、Synopsys、Lumentum Holdings和Nvidia在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau’s</b>new residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局的</b>7月份新住宅建设报告预计显示，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为161.0万套，低于6月份的164.3万套。3月份新屋开工量达到173万套的疫情后峰值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 8/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四8/19</b></blockquote></p><p> BJ’s Wholesale,<b>L Brands</b>, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>BJ的批发，<b>L品牌</b>、Applied Materials、Ross Stores、雅诗兰黛、Kohl's、Macy's、Performance Food Group、Petco Health and Wellness和Farfetch将在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>releases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布7月份领先经济指数。继6月份上涨0.7%后，LEI预计将环比上涨0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 8/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五8/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Deere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>Deere和Foot Locker在评级主办会议讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯控股、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯控股、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 06:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday.&nbsp;Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>现在是第二季度财报季的最后几局，零售商已准备好采取行动。沃尔玛和家得宝周二发布报告，劳氏、塔吉特和TJX周三紧随其后。美国柯尔百货公司、梅西百货、BJ批发和L品牌是周四的零售亮点，然后Foot Locker将于周五结束本周。</blockquote></p><p> The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a&nbsp;0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.</p><p><blockquote>人口普查局7月份零售销售数据也将于本周周二公布。经济学家平均预测，上个月经季节性调整后的增长率为0。</blockquote></p><p> Major non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and&nbsp;Krispy Kreme&nbsp;on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and&nbsp;Lumentum Holdings&nbsp;all report.Applied Materials&nbsp;goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布业绩的主要非零售公司包括周二发布业绩的Pandora和Krispy Kreme，随后是繁忙的周三：Nvidia、腾讯控股控股公司、思科系统公司、Analog Devices和Lumentum Holdings均发布业绩。应用材料公司周四公布业绩，Deere公司本周收盘周五。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include several housing-market metrics:&nbsp;The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括几项房地产市场指标：周二公布的全国住宅建筑商协会8月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数，以及周三公布的人口普查局7月份新住宅建设报告。</blockquote></p><p> Also on Wednesday, the&nbsp;Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周三，美联储货币政策委员会公布了7月底上次会议的纪要。然后，世界大型企业联合会将于周四公布7月份领先经济指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 8/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一8/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and&nbsp;Clear Secure&nbsp;are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团、Tokyo Electron和Clear Secure等公司在评级举行财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>纽约银行发布八月份帝国州制造业调查。普遍估计读数为26.5。相比之下，7月份的历史新高为43.0，当时总体商业状况指数上涨了26点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 8/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二8/17</b></blockquote></p><p> BHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>必和必拓、沃尔玛、家得宝、安捷伦科技、Pandora和Krispy Kreme等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> America’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry &amp; Associates,and&nbsp;La-Z-Boy&nbsp;report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.</p><p><blockquote>America's Car-Mart、Jack Henry&amp;Associates和La-Z-Boy在收盘后报告财务业绩，并将于第二天（8月18日）上午举行收益评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布7月工业部门产能利用率。评级共识为75.7%，与6月份的75.4%几乎没有变化。工业生产预计将比6月份经季节调整后的0.4%增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了8月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。经济学家预测读数为80，与7月份相同。该指数较11月份创下的历史高点90有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Federal Reserve Board</b>&nbsp;Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦储备委员会</b>主席杰伊·鲍威尔将与教育工作者和学生一起主持一个虚拟市政厅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau reports</b>&nbsp;retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局报告</b>7月零售销售数据。继6月份上涨0.6%后，预计经季节调整后环比下降0.3%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.2%，而上个月为增长1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 8/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三8/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market</b>&nbsp;Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场</b>委员会公布了7月底货币政策会议的纪要。</blockquote></p><p> Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>思科系统、劳氏、塔吉特、TJX、腾讯控股控股、Brinker International、Analog Devices、Synopsys、Lumentum Holdings和Nvidia在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau’s</b>new residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局的</b>7月份新住宅建设报告预计显示，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为161.0万套，低于6月份的164.3万套。3月份新屋开工量达到173万套的疫情后峰值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 8/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四8/19</b></blockquote></p><p> BJ’s Wholesale,<b>L Brands</b>, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>BJ的批发，<b>L品牌</b>、Applied Materials、Ross Stores、雅诗兰黛、Kohl's、Macy's、Performance Food Group、Petco Health and Wellness和Farfetch将在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>releases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布7月份领先经济指数。继6月份上涨0.7%后，LEI预计将环比上涨0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 8/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五8/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Deere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>Deere和Foot Locker在评级主办会议讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","NVDA":"英伟达",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TME":"腾讯音乐",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TGT":"塔吉特"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129589874","content_text":"It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.\nThe Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.\nMajor non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and Krispy Kreme on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and Lumentum Holdings all report.Applied Materials goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.\nEconomic data out this week include several housing-market metrics: The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.\nAlso on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.\nMonday 8/16\nTencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and Clear Secure are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.\nThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.\nTuesday 8/17\nBHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nAmerica’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry & Associates,and La-Z-Boy report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.\nThe Federal Reserve releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.\nFederal Reserve Board Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.\nThe Census Bureau reports retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.\nWednesday 8/18\nThe Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.\nCisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureau’snew residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.\nThursday 8/19\nBJ’s Wholesale,L Brands, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.\nThe Conference Boardreleases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.\nFriday 8/20\nDeere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"TGT":0.9,"WMT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TME":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897518848,"gmtCreate":1628940390085,"gmtModify":1631889125478,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897518848","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆来建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆来建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894341556,"gmtCreate":1628808687975,"gmtModify":1631889125478,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894341556","repostId":"1117889970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117889970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628780671,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117889970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117889970","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investo","content":"<p>Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investors set to closely monitor growth trends in both the entertainment conglomerate's streaming and parks businesses as consumers resumed going out.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼(DIS)将于周四收盘后公布第三财季业绩，随着消费者恢复外出，投资者将密切关注该娱乐集团流媒体和公园业务的增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the main results expected from Disney's report compared to consensus data, compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>以下是彭博社编制的迪士尼报告与共识数据相比的主要预期结果：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$16.80 billion expected vs. $11.78 billion Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收入：</b>预期为168亿美元，去年同期为117.8亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adjusted earnings per share:</b>55 cents expected vs. 8 cents Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><li><b>调整后每股收益：</b>预期为55美分，同比为8美分</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Disney is expected to return to revenue growth for the first time in five quarters, with visitations at the company's global parks and resorts picking up as vaccinations took place and consumer mobility picked up. By the end of the third quarter, all of Disney's global theme parks had reopened, including Disneyland Paris and Disneyland in California, which had still been closed earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼预计将在五个季度内首次恢复收入增长，随着疫苗接种的进行和消费者流动性的提高，该公司全球公园和度假村的游客数量有所增加。截至第三季度末，迪士尼全球所有主题公园都已重新开放，包括今年早些时候仍处于关闭状态的巴黎迪士尼乐园和加州迪士尼乐园。</blockquote></p><p> Though foot traffic at the parks has been below pre-pandemic levels, the reopenings have enabled the profit engine of Disney's overall business to resume operations more robustly. Disney's parks, experiences, and consumer products business segment is expected to swing to an operating profit of just over $41 million during the quarter, recovering after posting a loss in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公园的客流量一直低于大流行前的水平，但重新开放使迪士尼整体业务的利润引擎能够更强劲地恢复运营。迪士尼的公园、体验和消费品业务部门预计本季度营业利润将略高于4100万美元，在去年同期亏损后有所恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Costs related to addressing pandemic-related health concerns are still expected to be high for Disney, however. Last quarter, Disney said it expected to spend around $1 billion on safety measures for employees, talent and guests in fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于迪士尼来说，解决与大流行相关的健康问题的相关成本预计仍然很高。上个季度，迪士尼表示，预计2021财年将花费约10亿美元用于员工、人才和客人的安全措施。</blockquote></p><p> But for investors, the company's nearly two-year-old streaming business Disney+ is crucial and will be under the spotlight during Disney's earnings release and call on Thursday. Over the course of the pandemic, growth at Disney's streaming platform Disney+ helped placate investors as the company's lucrative parks and resorts saw business dry up.</p><p><blockquote>但对于投资者来说，该公司成立近两年的流媒体业务Disney+至关重要，将在迪士尼周四的财报发布和看涨期权上成为人们关注的焦点。在疫情期间，迪士尼流媒体平台Disney+的增长帮助安抚了投资者，因为该公司利润丰厚的公园和度假村业务枯竭。</blockquote></p><p> But as more consumers got vaccinated and went back outdoors, growth at Disney+ began to slow. In May, Disney+ posted its weakest quarter for user growth since its debut, with new subscribers rising by 8.7 million. Still, company has grown notably since launching in late 2019, with subscribers breaking above the 100 million mark in less than two years.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越来越多的消费者接种疫苗并回到户外，Disney+的增长开始放缓。5月份，Disney+公布了自推出以来用户增长最弱的季度，新用户增加了870万。尽管如此，该公司自2019年底推出以来仍取得了显着增长，在不到两年的时间里，用户突破了1亿大关。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in streaming has not been limited to Disney. Netflix, the incumbent leader among U.S.-based internet streaming platforms, added just 1.5 million new members in the second quarter of this year. That fell sharply from the more than 10 million paid users added in the same quarter last year, when consumers turned in droves to find entertainment during the height of stay-in-place orders.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体的放缓不仅限于迪士尼。Netflix是美国互联网流媒体平台的现任领导者，今年第二季度仅增加了150万新会员。这一数字较去年同季度新增的超过1000万付费用户大幅下降，当时消费者在留在原地订单高峰期蜂拥而至寻找娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> For Disney, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to report another 8.2 million users joined in the third quarter, bringing the total number of subscribers to about 112.8 million. That would compare to 209.2 million at Netflix.</p><p><blockquote>对于迪士尼，华尔街分析师预计Disney+第三季度将新增820万用户，使订阅用户总数达到约1.128亿。相比之下，Netflix的这一数字为2.092亿。</blockquote></p><p> Disney's broad library of content on Disney+ and its other streaming platforms have been the key to its success to date, and updates on its content portfolio are set to be closely watched. ESPN+ grew subscribers by 75% year-over-year last quarter to 13.8 million, with a stronger lineup of live sports helping boost viewership. And the company also announced two new rights deals during its earnings call last quarter, including an enhanced deal with Major League Baseball until 2028 and a new deal with LaLiga, the men’s professional soccer division of the Spanish soccer league.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼在Disney+和其他流媒体平台上的广泛内容库是其迄今为止成功的关键，其内容组合的更新将受到密切关注。ESPN+上个季度的订户同比增长75%，达到1380万，更强大的体育直播阵容有助于提高收视率。该公司还在上季度的财报看涨期权上宣布了两项新的转播权协议，包括与美国职业棒球大联盟（Major League Baseball）签订的延长协议直至2028年，以及与西班牙足球联盟男子职业足球部门拉利加（LaLiga）签订的新协议。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of films, Marvel names including \"Loki\" and \"Black Widow\" saw success both in theatrical releases and on Disney+, offering another major positive for Disney's business during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在电影方面，包括《洛基》和《黑寡妇》在内的漫威电影在影院上映和Disney+上都取得了成功，为迪士尼本季度的业务带来了另一个重大利好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 23:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investors set to closely monitor growth trends in both the entertainment conglomerate's streaming and parks businesses as consumers resumed going out.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼(DIS)将于周四收盘后公布第三财季业绩，随着消费者恢复外出，投资者将密切关注该娱乐集团流媒体和公园业务的增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the main results expected from Disney's report compared to consensus data, compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>以下是彭博社编制的迪士尼报告与共识数据相比的主要预期结果：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$16.80 billion expected vs. $11.78 billion Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收入：</b>预期为168亿美元，去年同期为117.8亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adjusted earnings per share:</b>55 cents expected vs. 8 cents Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><li><b>调整后每股收益：</b>预期为55美分，同比为8美分</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Disney is expected to return to revenue growth for the first time in five quarters, with visitations at the company's global parks and resorts picking up as vaccinations took place and consumer mobility picked up. By the end of the third quarter, all of Disney's global theme parks had reopened, including Disneyland Paris and Disneyland in California, which had still been closed earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼预计将在五个季度内首次恢复收入增长，随着疫苗接种的进行和消费者流动性的提高，该公司全球公园和度假村的游客数量有所增加。截至第三季度末，迪士尼全球所有主题公园都已重新开放，包括今年早些时候仍处于关闭状态的巴黎迪士尼乐园和加州迪士尼乐园。</blockquote></p><p> Though foot traffic at the parks has been below pre-pandemic levels, the reopenings have enabled the profit engine of Disney's overall business to resume operations more robustly. Disney's parks, experiences, and consumer products business segment is expected to swing to an operating profit of just over $41 million during the quarter, recovering after posting a loss in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公园的客流量一直低于大流行前的水平，但重新开放使迪士尼整体业务的利润引擎能够更强劲地恢复运营。迪士尼的公园、体验和消费品业务部门预计本季度营业利润将略高于4100万美元，在去年同期亏损后有所恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Costs related to addressing pandemic-related health concerns are still expected to be high for Disney, however. Last quarter, Disney said it expected to spend around $1 billion on safety measures for employees, talent and guests in fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于迪士尼来说，解决与大流行相关的健康问题的相关成本预计仍然很高。上个季度，迪士尼表示，预计2021财年将花费约10亿美元用于员工、人才和客人的安全措施。</blockquote></p><p> But for investors, the company's nearly two-year-old streaming business Disney+ is crucial and will be under the spotlight during Disney's earnings release and call on Thursday. Over the course of the pandemic, growth at Disney's streaming platform Disney+ helped placate investors as the company's lucrative parks and resorts saw business dry up.</p><p><blockquote>但对于投资者来说，该公司成立近两年的流媒体业务Disney+至关重要，将在迪士尼周四的财报发布和看涨期权上成为人们关注的焦点。在疫情期间，迪士尼流媒体平台Disney+的增长帮助安抚了投资者，因为该公司利润丰厚的公园和度假村业务枯竭。</blockquote></p><p> But as more consumers got vaccinated and went back outdoors, growth at Disney+ began to slow. In May, Disney+ posted its weakest quarter for user growth since its debut, with new subscribers rising by 8.7 million. Still, company has grown notably since launching in late 2019, with subscribers breaking above the 100 million mark in less than two years.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越来越多的消费者接种疫苗并回到户外，Disney+的增长开始放缓。5月份，Disney+公布了自推出以来用户增长最弱的季度，新用户增加了870万。尽管如此，该公司自2019年底推出以来仍取得了显着增长，在不到两年的时间里，用户突破了1亿大关。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in streaming has not been limited to Disney. Netflix, the incumbent leader among U.S.-based internet streaming platforms, added just 1.5 million new members in the second quarter of this year. That fell sharply from the more than 10 million paid users added in the same quarter last year, when consumers turned in droves to find entertainment during the height of stay-in-place orders.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体的放缓不仅限于迪士尼。Netflix是美国互联网流媒体平台的现任领导者，今年第二季度仅增加了150万新会员。这一数字较去年同季度新增的超过1000万付费用户大幅下降，当时消费者在留在原地订单高峰期蜂拥而至寻找娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> For Disney, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to report another 8.2 million users joined in the third quarter, bringing the total number of subscribers to about 112.8 million. That would compare to 209.2 million at Netflix.</p><p><blockquote>对于迪士尼，华尔街分析师预计Disney+第三季度将新增820万用户，使订阅用户总数达到约1.128亿。相比之下，Netflix的这一数字为2.092亿。</blockquote></p><p> Disney's broad library of content on Disney+ and its other streaming platforms have been the key to its success to date, and updates on its content portfolio are set to be closely watched. ESPN+ grew subscribers by 75% year-over-year last quarter to 13.8 million, with a stronger lineup of live sports helping boost viewership. And the company also announced two new rights deals during its earnings call last quarter, including an enhanced deal with Major League Baseball until 2028 and a new deal with LaLiga, the men’s professional soccer division of the Spanish soccer league.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼在Disney+和其他流媒体平台上的广泛内容库是其迄今为止成功的关键，其内容组合的更新将受到密切关注。ESPN+上个季度的订户同比增长75%，达到1380万，更强大的体育直播阵容有助于提高收视率。该公司还在上季度的财报看涨期权上宣布了两项新的转播权协议，包括与美国职业棒球大联盟（Major League Baseball）签订的延长协议直至2028年，以及与西班牙足球联盟男子职业足球部门拉利加（LaLiga）签订的新协议。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of films, Marvel names including \"Loki\" and \"Black Widow\" saw success both in theatrical releases and on Disney+, offering another major positive for Disney's business during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在电影方面，包括《洛基》和《黑寡妇》在内的漫威电影在影院上映和Disney+上都取得了成功，为迪士尼本季度的业务带来了另一个重大利好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-earnings-q3-2021-145909103.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-earnings-q3-2021-145909103.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117889970","content_text":"Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investors set to closely monitor growth trends in both the entertainment conglomerate's streaming and parks businesses as consumers resumed going out.\nHere are the main results expected from Disney's report compared to consensus data, compiled by Bloomberg:\n\nRevenue:$16.80 billion expected vs. $11.78 billion Y/Y\nAdjusted earnings per share:55 cents expected vs. 8 cents Y/Y\n\nDisney is expected to return to revenue growth for the first time in five quarters, with visitations at the company's global parks and resorts picking up as vaccinations took place and consumer mobility picked up. By the end of the third quarter, all of Disney's global theme parks had reopened, including Disneyland Paris and Disneyland in California, which had still been closed earlier this year.\nThough foot traffic at the parks has been below pre-pandemic levels, the reopenings have enabled the profit engine of Disney's overall business to resume operations more robustly. Disney's parks, experiences, and consumer products business segment is expected to swing to an operating profit of just over $41 million during the quarter, recovering after posting a loss in the same period last year.\nCosts related to addressing pandemic-related health concerns are still expected to be high for Disney, however. Last quarter, Disney said it expected to spend around $1 billion on safety measures for employees, talent and guests in fiscal 2021.\nBut for investors, the company's nearly two-year-old streaming business Disney+ is crucial and will be under the spotlight during Disney's earnings release and call on Thursday. Over the course of the pandemic, growth at Disney's streaming platform Disney+ helped placate investors as the company's lucrative parks and resorts saw business dry up.\nBut as more consumers got vaccinated and went back outdoors, growth at Disney+ began to slow. In May, Disney+ posted its weakest quarter for user growth since its debut, with new subscribers rising by 8.7 million. Still, company has grown notably since launching in late 2019, with subscribers breaking above the 100 million mark in less than two years.\nThe slowdown in streaming has not been limited to Disney. Netflix, the incumbent leader among U.S.-based internet streaming platforms, added just 1.5 million new members in the second quarter of this year. That fell sharply from the more than 10 million paid users added in the same quarter last year, when consumers turned in droves to find entertainment during the height of stay-in-place orders.\nFor Disney, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to report another 8.2 million users joined in the third quarter, bringing the total number of subscribers to about 112.8 million. That would compare to 209.2 million at Netflix.\nDisney's broad library of content on Disney+ and its other streaming platforms have been the key to its success to date, and updates on its content portfolio are set to be closely watched. ESPN+ grew subscribers by 75% year-over-year last quarter to 13.8 million, with a stronger lineup of live sports helping boost viewership. And the company also announced two new rights deals during its earnings call last quarter, including an enhanced deal with Major League Baseball until 2028 and a new deal with LaLiga, the men’s professional soccer division of the Spanish soccer league.\nIn terms of films, Marvel names including \"Loki\" and \"Black Widow\" saw success both in theatrical releases and on Disney+, offering another major positive for Disney's business during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895131593,"gmtCreate":1628727738812,"gmtModify":1631894013093,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895131593","repostId":"1146833505","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892139097,"gmtCreate":1628642715519,"gmtModify":1631894016226,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892139097","repostId":"1138697562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138697562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628642042,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138697562?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 08:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Inc. And Buffett: Why He Bought And Why He Holds<blockquote>苹果和巴菲特：巴菲特为何买入和持有</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138697562","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffet","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffett portfolio.</li>  <li>This analysis approaches the purchase under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule.</li>  <li>And this analysis argues that Buffett holds the AAPL shares in the long term for its perpetual growth prospects, offering double-digit return even under its current expensive valuation.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b65798f03c6f9376257bba2741e588\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文分析了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>在它是巴菲特投资组合中最大持股的背景下。</li><li>这一分析是在我看涨期权巴菲特10倍税前规则的框架下进行的。</li><li>这一分析认为，巴菲特长期持有苹果公司股票是因为其永久增长前景，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，也能提供两位数的回报。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>The investment thesis</b></h3> If you are reading this, chances are that you already know that AppleInc. (AAPL) is the largest position in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. When many people wonder if the legend has lost his magic touch, and commented on his blunders with the airline stocks, they forgot that he made more than $100B from AAPL stocks alone! With his concentrated investment style, what he lost on the relatively minor bets such as the airlines is only a footnote.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>投资论文</b></h3>如果你正在读这篇文章，很可能你已经知道苹果公司。（AAPL）是沃伦·巴菲特伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资组合中最大的头寸。当许多人怀疑这位传奇人物是否失去了他的魔力，并评论他在航空股上的失误时，他们忘记了他仅从AAPL股票上就赚了超过1000亿美元！以他集中的投资风格，他在航空公司等相对较小的赌注上输掉的只是一个注脚。</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffett portfolio. This analysis first approaches his entry decision under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule. And then this analysis argues that Buffett holds the AAPL shares in the long term NOT as a technology stock – he had made it clear enough that he does not understand tech companies and will not invest in them. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual growth prospects. From this perspective, we will see that APPL will still offer double-digit return in the longer run even under its current expensive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>本文在AAPL是巴菲特投资组合中最大持股的背景下进行分析。本分析首先在我看涨期权巴菲特10倍税前规则的框架下探讨了巴菲特的进入决策。然后，这一分析认为，巴菲特长期持有苹果公司股票，而不是将其视为科技股——他已经明确表示，他不了解科技公司，也不会投资它们。他持有苹果公司一定是因为它的永久增长前景。从这个角度来看，我们将看到，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，APPL从长远来看仍将提供两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348a1fb56faeceb8e956ad8f6fa3b09a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:&nbsp;DataRoma</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：DataRoma</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule</b></h3> If you’re a devout Buffett cultist like this author, you must have noticed or heard that the grand master paid ~10x pretax earnings for many of his largest and best deals. The list is a really long one, ranging from Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo, Walmart, Burlington Northern, and of course the more recent AAPL purchase and his recent $25B&nbsp;repurchases of BRK.A&nbsp;shares as analyzed in my earlier article.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>巴菲特的10倍税前规则</b></h3>如果您像这位作者一样是虔诚的巴菲特崇拜者，您一定注意到或听说过这位大师为他的许多最大和最好的交易支付了约10倍的税前收益。这个名单真的很长，包括可口可乐、美国运通、富国银行、沃尔玛、Burlington Northern，当然还有最近对AAPL的收购和他最近对BRK的25B美元回购。A股，正如我之前文章中所分析的那样。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart shows the price history of AAPL and its 10x pretax earning since 2010. Pretax earnings are also referred to as \"EBT\", Earning Before Taxes, in this article. As seen, Buffett made his purchases during 2016-2017 when the price is below or near 10x EBT. I was lucky enough to have made the AAPL purchases at that time myself too.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了AAPL的价格历史及其自2010年以来10倍的税前收益。在本文中，税前收益也称为“EBT”，即税前收益。如图所示，巴菲特在2016年至2017年期间进行了购买，当时价格低于或接近EBT的10倍。我很幸运，当时我自己也购买了AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> Buffet himself also mentioned and discussed the 10x pretax multiple times in his shareholder meetings and Q&amp;A sessions. An example quote is provided below (highlighting was added by me):</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特本人也在股东大会和问答环节中多次提及和讨论了10倍税前。下面提供了一个示例报价（突出显示是我添加的）：</blockquote></p><p> Buffett: “Geico would be valued differently than Gen RE and other insurance businesses because it’s rational to assume a large underwriting profit and significant growth. You cannot say that about many insurance businesses. I would love to buy a new bunch of operating businesses with similar competitive positions to the ones we own now at nine to ten times pretax earnings.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特：“Geico的估值将与Gen RE和其他保险业务不同，因为假设承保利润大且增长显着是合理的。你不能对许多保险业务这么说。我很乐意购买一批新的运营业务，这些业务的竞争地位与我们现在拥有的业务相似，其税前收益为9到10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eec812a3eda60f950a1890eebc7dd34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：作者基于Seeking Alpha数据</blockquote></p><p> So are there any reasons fundamental to this 10x pretax rule, or is it only a bunch of pure coincidences? I think it is the former and there are indeed many good reasons for this rule, as listed below.</p><p><blockquote>那么，这个10倍税前规则有什么根本原因吗，还是只是一堆纯粹的巧合？我认为是前者，这个规则确实有很多很好的理由，如下所列。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>First, Why pretax?</b></h3> Out of all the earning metrics, EPS, operation income, free cash, dividend, etc., why do we favor the pretax earning? I think there are at least two good reasons.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>首先，为什么要税前？</b></h3>在所有盈利指标中，每股收益、营业收入、自由现金、股息等，为什么我们青睐税前收益？我认为至少有两个很好的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>After tax earnings do not reflect business fundamentals. Taxes can change from time to time due to factors that have no relevance to business fundamentals, such as tax law changes and capital structure change. Plus there are plenty of ways to lower the actual tax burden of a company.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Pretax earnings are easier to benchmark, say against bond earnings. The best equity investments are bond like, and when we speak of bond yield, that yield is pretax. So a 10x EBT would provide a 10% pretax earning yield, directly comparable to a 10% yield bond.</li> </ul> <h3><b>Second, why 10x?</b></h3> Besides being a nice and round number, it passes the/my common sense test. A 10x pretax multiple roughly translate into 12 to 15x PE depending on the tax rates, which is not far off from the long term average of stock valuation. Furthermore, if we buy average business at 10x pretax, we already get a 10% pretax return. And if we can do better than buying only average business (like Buffett), paying 10x pretax pretty much guarantees double digit pretax earning. Of course, the 10x here is only for businesses that are conservatively leveraged (say with interest coverage around 10x). The number needs to be adjusted for a highly leveraged business or a business with loads of cash.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>税后收益并不反映业务基本面。由于税法变化和资本结构变化等与业务基本面无关的因素，税收可能会不时发生变化。此外，有很多方法可以降低公司的实际税收负担。</li></ul><ul><li>税前收益更容易以债券收益为基准。最好的股权投资是类似债券的，当我们谈论债券收益率时，该收益率是税前收益率。因此，10倍EBT将提供10%的税前收益率，与10%收益率的债券直接相当。</li></ul><h3><b>第二，为什么是10倍？</b></h3>除了是一个漂亮的整数之外，它还通过了/我的常识测试。根据税率的不同，10倍的税前市盈率大致相当于12至15倍的市盈率，这与股票估值的长期平均水平相差不远。此外，如果我们以10倍的税前价格购买普通企业，我们已经获得了10%的税前回报。如果我们能比只购买普通企业（比如巴菲特）做得更好，支付10倍的税前收入几乎可以保证两位数的税前收入。当然，这里的10倍仅适用于杠杆率保守的企业（例如利息覆盖率约为10倍）。对于高杠杆企业或拥有大量现金的企业，需要调整这个数字。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Third, warning and summary</b></h3> Here a strong warning is in order. I am NOT suggesting you go out and start buying every/any stock that is below 10x EBT. As investors, we face many risks. Two of the major risks are A) quality risk or value trap, i.e., paying a bargain price for something of horrible quality, and B) valuation risk, i.e., paying too much for something of superb quality. The 10x pretax rule is mainly to avoid the type B risk AFTER the type A risk has been eliminated already.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>三、警示与总结</b></h3>这里有一个强烈的警告。我并不是建议你出去开始购买每一只低于10倍EBT的股票。作为投资者，我们面临许多风险。两个主要风险是a)质量风险或价值陷阱，即为质量糟糕的东西支付便宜的价格，以及B)估值风险，即为质量一流的东西支付过高的价格。10倍税前规则主要是为了在A类风险已经消除后避免B类风险。</blockquote></p><p> So to summarize, to apply the 10x EBT rule,</p><p><blockquote>所以总结一下，应用10倍EBT规则，</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>the business should have not existential issue in the long run. However, at the end, this is largely a subjective judgement.</li>  <li>the business should have no existential issue in the short run either. This is can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage.</li>  <li>If we paid 10x pretax and bought a business that meets requirement 1 and 2, we will be paying an average price for an average business. Not the best investment ever, but 10% pretax return is not that bad either. If we get a business that offers ANY growth, then we will be buying an above average business at an average price. And we will have a large chance of a double digit return compounding for a long time (if you hold onto to it long enough like Buffett).</li> </ol> AAPL in 2016 and 2017 obviously met all of the above requirements, and it is another textbook illustration of Buffett’s value driven investment success.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>从长远来看，这项业务应该不会有生存问题。然而，归根结底，这在很大程度上是一种主观判断。</li><li>该企业在短期内也应该没有生存问题。这可以根据现金流和债务覆盖率非常可靠和客观地评估。</li><li>如果我们支付了10倍的税前费用，购买了一家满足要求1和2的企业，我们将为一家普通企业支付平均价格。不是有史以来最好的投资，但10%的税前回报也没那么糟糕。如果我们得到了一个能提供任何增长的企业，那么我们将以平均价格购买高于平均水平的企业。我们很有可能在很长一段时间内实现两位数的复合回报（如果你像巴菲特一样持有足够长的时间）。</li></ol>2016年和2017年的AAPL显然满足了上述所有要求，它是巴菲特价值驱动投资成功的又一教科书式例证。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>AAPL: why is he still holding it?</b></h3> The next question now is: why is he still holding whenits valuation is not long 10x EBT? As a matter of factor, it is at ~23x EBT now, more than double 10x EBT.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>AAPL：为什么他还拿着它？</b></h3>现在的下一个问题是：当其估值不是10倍EBT时，他为什么还持有？作为一个因素，它现在的EBT约为23倍，是EBT 10倍的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> I am not going to pretend that I know all his considerations. There are so many aspects that needs to be considered with a position of this size - tax liabilities, alternative investment candidates, opportunity cost, et al.</p><p><blockquote>我不会假装我知道他所有的考虑。这种规模的职位需要考虑很多方面——纳税义务、另类投资候选人、机会成本等等。</blockquote></p><p> But I am pretty certain about one thing – he is NOT holding AAPL as a technology stock, wishing for the next technology breakthrough and double the earning. He had made it so clear that he does not understand tech companies and will not invest in them. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual autonomous growth – a business that can almost “automatically” grow without the need of too much reinvestment.</p><p><blockquote>但我非常确定一件事——他并不是将AAPL作为科技股持有，而是希望下一次技术突破并使收益翻倍。他已经明确表示，他不了解科技公司，也不会投资它们。他持有AAPL一定是为了其永久的自主增长——这项业务几乎可以“自动”增长，而不需要太多的再投资。</blockquote></p><p> He said multiple times that there are businesses which, at the end of the day, point to a bunch of depreciated properties and equipment and tell the investors, “these are our profits.” He hates his business.</p><p><blockquote>他多次表示，有些企业最终会指着一堆折旧的财产和设备告诉投资者，“这些是我们的利润。”他讨厌他的生意。</blockquote></p><p> As we will see from the next section, APPL is the exact opposite of those businesses. And due to its ultra-high ROCE and ultra-low requirement of reinvestment to fuel future growth, it will still offer double-digit return in the longer run even under its current expensive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们将在下一节中看到的，APPL与这些业务完全相反。由于其超高的ROCE和超低的再投资要求来推动未来增长，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，从长远来看，它仍将提供两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Perpetual autonomous growth</b></h3> If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>永久自主增长</b></h3>如果你和这位作者一样，是一个长期投资者，认购所有者收益、永久增长率和股权债券的概念，那么长期回报就更简单了。它“简单地”是所有者收益收益率（“OEY”）和永久增长率（“PGR”）的总和，即，</blockquote></p><p> Longer-Term ROI = OEY + PGR</p><p><blockquote>长期ROI=OEY+PGR</blockquote></p><p> Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as AAPL has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.</p><p><blockquote>因为从长期来看，估值的所有波动都被平均掉了（最后所有的运气都被平均掉了）。企业如何使用收益（作为股息支付、保留在银行账户中或回购股票）并不重要。只要明智地使用（就像AAPL过去所做的那样），它就会体现为对企业主的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> OEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~3.6% for AAPL (~27.4x price to FCF).</p><p><blockquote>OEY是所有者的收入除以入场价格。所有的复杂性都在于对所有者收益的估计——企业的实际经济收益，而不是名义上的会计收益。在这里，作为一个粗略和保守的估计，我将使用自由现金流（“FCF”）作为所有者的收益。它是保守的，因为严格来说，所有者的收益应该是自由现金流加上用于推动增长的资本支出部分（即增长资本支出）。按照目前的价格水平，AAPL的OEY约为3.6%（价格与自由现金流之比约为27.4倍）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, the valuation is quite expensive and the OEY is merely 3.6%. But do not be under impressed yet, because there is a second part to the long term return, the part is the created by the PGR, perpetual growth rate. In the long term, the growth rate is:</p><p><blockquote>同样，估值相当昂贵，OEY仅为3.6%。但还不要沾沾自喜，因为长期回报还有第二部分，这部分是由PGR创造的，即永久增长率。从长期来看，增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> PGR = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate</p><p><blockquote>PGR=ROCE*再投资率</blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimate the PGR. The reinvestment rate is the portion of income the business plows back to fuel further growth.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业需要投资多少额外资本才能获得给定的额外收入——这是估计PGR的关键。再投资率是企业为推动进一步增长而收回的收入部分。</blockquote></p><p> So to estimate the PGR, we need to estimate two things: ROCE and reinvestment rate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要估计PGR，我们需要估计两件事：ROCE和再投资率。</blockquote></p><p> To estimate the ROCE of businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>为了估计像AAPL这样的企业的ROCE，我考虑了实际使用的资本项目：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、营运资金，包括应付账款、应收账款、存货。这些是其业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.不动产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于AAPL这样的企业来说，这是一项必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade are shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain a respectably high ROCE over the past decade: it used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 150% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articleforVisa Inc., another autonomous grower that Buffett likes, Visa features a ROCE “only” around 105%.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持相当高的ROCE：本世纪初为450%，自2016年以来近年来仍徘徊在平均150%左右。客观地看，正如我在上一篇关于巴菲特喜欢的另一家自主种植者Visa Inc.的文章中详细介绍的那样，Visa的ROCE“仅”约为105%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21191b41d6360f09d6f6496fac499a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s see the reinvestment part. In recent years, the following is how AAPL has been allocating its operation cash (“OPC”). As seen, AAPL has been using on average ~33% of the OPC as maintenance CAPEx and dividend. So these two “mandatory” have been on average costing only 1/3 of AAPL’s operation cash in recent years. The quotation mark means even though dividend is usually considered an optional cost. But for a stock with AAPL’s status, management probably won’t cut it unless they really have to.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看再投资部分。近年来，苹果公司如何分配其运营现金（“OPC”）如下。如图所示，AAPL平均使用约33%的OPC作为维护资本支出和股息。因此，这两项“强制性”近年来平均只花费了AAPL运营现金的1/3。引号意味着即使股息通常被视为可选成本。但对于苹果公司这种地位的股票，管理层可能不会削减它，除非真的迫不得已。</blockquote></p><p> For the remaining 2/3, the company does have a choice. It can use it for a variety of things: reinvest to fuel further growth, retain it to strength the balance sheet, pay an extra special dividend, pay down debt, buyback shares, et al. It obviously makes total sense to reinvest all of it to fuel further growth given its 150% ROCE. At this ROCE, $1 reinvested would be fuel $1.5 of additional earning! But the problem is that for businesses at this scale, there are just not that many opportunities to reinvest the earnings. As a result, AAPL has been allocating a part of the remaining earning, on average 70% in recently years, to buy back shares. Such repurchases, besides reflecting the confidence of the management on their own business, again also signals the lack of good reinvestment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>对于剩下的2/3，公司确实有选择。它可以将其用于多种用途：再投资以推动进一步增长、保留其以加强资产负债表、支付额外的特别股息、偿还债务、回购股票等。鉴于其150%的ROCE，将所有资金进行再投资以推动进一步增长显然是完全有意义的。在这个ROCE，1美元的再投资将带来1.5美元的额外收入！但问题是，对于这种规模的企业来说，将收益进行再投资的机会并不多。因此，AAPL一直在分配剩余收益的一部分（近年来平均为70%）来回购股票。这种回购除了反映管理层对自身业务的信心外，也再次表明缺乏良好的再投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> But all things considered, with such spectacular ROCE, AAPL does not need that much reinvestment to grow, as elaborated below.</p><p><blockquote>但综合考虑，凭借如此惊人的ROCE，AAPL不需要那么多再投资来实现增长，如下所述。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/190eeaa73f40d26feb7de2b4932718a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</blockquote></p><p> With a 150% ROCE, it means that even if AAPL only reinvests 5% of its earning to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 7.5% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earning reinvested = 150% * 5% = 7.5%). As aforementioned, this is a reason that AAPL can afford to use pretty much all the OPC for dividend and share repurchase after covering its maintenance CAPEx.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE为150%，这意味着即使AAPL只将其收益的5%进行再投资来扩大所用资本，它也可以保持7.5%的PGR（PGR=ROCE*再投资收益的比例=150%*5%=7.5%）。如前所述，这就是AAPL在支付维护资本支出后有能力将几乎所有OPC用于股息和股票回购的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~3.6%, and the PGR is about 7.5%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn’t change the long-term return dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们已经有了估计长期回报的两块拼图。按照目前的价格水平，OEY估计约为3.6%，PGR约为7.5%。因此，按当前估值计算，长期总回报率将达到两位数11%，如下图所示。同样可以看出，即使ROCE有所波动，波动也不会显着改变长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93688ad65495c50b51be46b2fcda963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Conclusion and final thought</b></h3> Many of Buffett's largest and best deals are purchased below or around 10x EBT, ranging from Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo, Walmart, Burlington Northern, and also the more recent AAPL purchase and his $25B&nbsp;repurchases of BRK.A&nbsp;shares.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>结论和最后的思考</b></h3>巴菲特的许多最大和最好的交易都是以低于或大约10倍EBT的价格购买的，包括可口可乐、美国运通、富国银行、沃尔玛、Burlington Northern，以及最近购买的AAPL和他以25B美元回购的BRK.A股。</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AppleInc.under the context as the largest purchase and also largest holding in the Buffett portfolio. This analysis approaches the purchase under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule. The analysis showed that When Buffett purchased AAPL in 2016 and 2017, it met all the requirements for the 10x pretax rule and represented another textbook illustration of his value driven success.</p><p><blockquote>本文将AppleInc.作为巴菲特投资组合中最大的收购和最大的持股进行分析。这一分析是在我看涨期权巴菲特10倍税前规则的框架下进行的。分析显示，当巴菲特在2016年和2017年收购AAPL时，它满足了10倍税前规则的所有要求，并代表了他价值驱动型成功的又一教科书式例证。</blockquote></p><p> Then this article also attempted to answer why he is holding it given the current relatively expensive valuation. He is definitely NOT holding AAPL as a technology stock, wishing for the next technology breakthrough to double the earning. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual autonomous growth – a business that can almost “automatically” grow without the need of too much reinvestment. From this perspective, the result show that these shares still can offer double-digit return even under its current expensive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>那么这篇文章也试图回答在目前估值相对昂贵的情况下，他为什么要持有它。他绝对不是把苹果公司作为科技股来持有，希望下一次技术突破能让收益翻倍。他持有AAPL一定是为了其永久的自主增长——这项业务几乎可以“自动”增长，而不需要太多的再投资。从这个角度来看，结果表明，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，这些股票仍然可以提供两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> And as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I’ve learned by studying Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~5%) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than 5% percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.</p><p><blockquote>作为结束本节之前的最后一点，这可能是我通过研究沃伦·巴菲特的投资哲学学到的最有价值的见解。真正的见解是，我不需要一个两位数增长的企业来产生两位数的回报。一家可靠的企业能够以百分之几（如约5%）的令人厌烦的速度提供稳定增长，只要a)以合理的估值购买，并且B)他们的ROCE足够高，以便可以通过将一小部分收入进行再投资来推动增长。从长远来看，假设增长率超过5%可能是一个危险的假设。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Inc. And Buffett: Why He Bought And Why He Holds<blockquote>苹果和巴菲特：巴菲特为何买入和持有</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Inc. And Buffett: Why He Bought And Why He Holds<blockquote>苹果和巴菲特：巴菲特为何买入和持有</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-11 08:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffett portfolio.</li>  <li>This analysis approaches the purchase under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule.</li>  <li>And this analysis argues that Buffett holds the AAPL shares in the long term for its perpetual growth prospects, offering double-digit return even under its current expensive valuation.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b65798f03c6f9376257bba2741e588\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文分析了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>在它是巴菲特投资组合中最大持股的背景下。</li><li>这一分析是在我看涨期权巴菲特10倍税前规则的框架下进行的。</li><li>这一分析认为，巴菲特长期持有苹果公司股票是因为其永久增长前景，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，也能提供两位数的回报。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>The investment thesis</b></h3> If you are reading this, chances are that you already know that AppleInc. (AAPL) is the largest position in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. When many people wonder if the legend has lost his magic touch, and commented on his blunders with the airline stocks, they forgot that he made more than $100B from AAPL stocks alone! With his concentrated investment style, what he lost on the relatively minor bets such as the airlines is only a footnote.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>投资论文</b></h3>如果你正在读这篇文章，很可能你已经知道苹果公司。（AAPL）是沃伦·巴菲特伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资组合中最大的头寸。当许多人怀疑这位传奇人物是否失去了他的魔力，并评论他在航空股上的失误时，他们忘记了他仅从AAPL股票上就赚了超过1000亿美元！以他集中的投资风格，他在航空公司等相对较小的赌注上输掉的只是一个注脚。</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffett portfolio. This analysis first approaches his entry decision under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule. And then this analysis argues that Buffett holds the AAPL shares in the long term NOT as a technology stock – he had made it clear enough that he does not understand tech companies and will not invest in them. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual growth prospects. From this perspective, we will see that APPL will still offer double-digit return in the longer run even under its current expensive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>本文在AAPL是巴菲特投资组合中最大持股的背景下进行分析。本分析首先在我看涨期权巴菲特10倍税前规则的框架下探讨了巴菲特的进入决策。然后，这一分析认为，巴菲特长期持有苹果公司股票，而不是将其视为科技股——他已经明确表示，他不了解科技公司，也不会投资它们。他持有苹果公司一定是因为它的永久增长前景。从这个角度来看，我们将看到，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，APPL从长远来看仍将提供两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348a1fb56faeceb8e956ad8f6fa3b09a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:&nbsp;DataRoma</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：DataRoma</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule</b></h3> If you’re a devout Buffett cultist like this author, you must have noticed or heard that the grand master paid ~10x pretax earnings for many of his largest and best deals. The list is a really long one, ranging from Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo, Walmart, Burlington Northern, and of course the more recent AAPL purchase and his recent $25B&nbsp;repurchases of BRK.A&nbsp;shares as analyzed in my earlier article.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>巴菲特的10倍税前规则</b></h3>如果您像这位作者一样是虔诚的巴菲特崇拜者，您一定注意到或听说过这位大师为他的许多最大和最好的交易支付了约10倍的税前收益。这个名单真的很长，包括可口可乐、美国运通、富国银行、沃尔玛、Burlington Northern，当然还有最近对AAPL的收购和他最近对BRK的25B美元回购。A股，正如我之前文章中所分析的那样。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart shows the price history of AAPL and its 10x pretax earning since 2010. Pretax earnings are also referred to as \"EBT\", Earning Before Taxes, in this article. As seen, Buffett made his purchases during 2016-2017 when the price is below or near 10x EBT. I was lucky enough to have made the AAPL purchases at that time myself too.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了AAPL的价格历史及其自2010年以来10倍的税前收益。在本文中，税前收益也称为“EBT”，即税前收益。如图所示，巴菲特在2016年至2017年期间进行了购买，当时价格低于或接近EBT的10倍。我很幸运，当时我自己也购买了AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> Buffet himself also mentioned and discussed the 10x pretax multiple times in his shareholder meetings and Q&amp;A sessions. An example quote is provided below (highlighting was added by me):</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特本人也在股东大会和问答环节中多次提及和讨论了10倍税前。下面提供了一个示例报价（突出显示是我添加的）：</blockquote></p><p> Buffett: “Geico would be valued differently than Gen RE and other insurance businesses because it’s rational to assume a large underwriting profit and significant growth. You cannot say that about many insurance businesses. I would love to buy a new bunch of operating businesses with similar competitive positions to the ones we own now at nine to ten times pretax earnings.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特：“Geico的估值将与Gen RE和其他保险业务不同，因为假设承保利润大且增长显着是合理的。你不能对许多保险业务这么说。我很乐意购买一批新的运营业务，这些业务的竞争地位与我们现在拥有的业务相似，其税前收益为9到10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eec812a3eda60f950a1890eebc7dd34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：作者基于Seeking Alpha数据</blockquote></p><p> So are there any reasons fundamental to this 10x pretax rule, or is it only a bunch of pure coincidences? I think it is the former and there are indeed many good reasons for this rule, as listed below.</p><p><blockquote>那么，这个10倍税前规则有什么根本原因吗，还是只是一堆纯粹的巧合？我认为是前者，这个规则确实有很多很好的理由，如下所列。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>First, Why pretax?</b></h3> Out of all the earning metrics, EPS, operation income, free cash, dividend, etc., why do we favor the pretax earning? I think there are at least two good reasons.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>首先，为什么要税前？</b></h3>在所有盈利指标中，每股收益、营业收入、自由现金、股息等，为什么我们青睐税前收益？我认为至少有两个很好的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>After tax earnings do not reflect business fundamentals. Taxes can change from time to time due to factors that have no relevance to business fundamentals, such as tax law changes and capital structure change. Plus there are plenty of ways to lower the actual tax burden of a company.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Pretax earnings are easier to benchmark, say against bond earnings. The best equity investments are bond like, and when we speak of bond yield, that yield is pretax. So a 10x EBT would provide a 10% pretax earning yield, directly comparable to a 10% yield bond.</li> </ul> <h3><b>Second, why 10x?</b></h3> Besides being a nice and round number, it passes the/my common sense test. A 10x pretax multiple roughly translate into 12 to 15x PE depending on the tax rates, which is not far off from the long term average of stock valuation. Furthermore, if we buy average business at 10x pretax, we already get a 10% pretax return. And if we can do better than buying only average business (like Buffett), paying 10x pretax pretty much guarantees double digit pretax earning. Of course, the 10x here is only for businesses that are conservatively leveraged (say with interest coverage around 10x). The number needs to be adjusted for a highly leveraged business or a business with loads of cash.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>税后收益并不反映业务基本面。由于税法变化和资本结构变化等与业务基本面无关的因素，税收可能会不时发生变化。此外，有很多方法可以降低公司的实际税收负担。</li></ul><ul><li>税前收益更容易以债券收益为基准。最好的股权投资是类似债券的，当我们谈论债券收益率时，该收益率是税前收益率。因此，10倍EBT将提供10%的税前收益率，与10%收益率的债券直接相当。</li></ul><h3><b>第二，为什么是10倍？</b></h3>除了是一个漂亮的整数之外，它还通过了/我的常识测试。根据税率的不同，10倍的税前市盈率大致相当于12至15倍的市盈率，这与股票估值的长期平均水平相差不远。此外，如果我们以10倍的税前价格购买普通企业，我们已经获得了10%的税前回报。如果我们能比只购买普通企业（比如巴菲特）做得更好，支付10倍的税前收入几乎可以保证两位数的税前收入。当然，这里的10倍仅适用于杠杆率保守的企业（例如利息覆盖率约为10倍）。对于高杠杆企业或拥有大量现金的企业，需要调整这个数字。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Third, warning and summary</b></h3> Here a strong warning is in order. I am NOT suggesting you go out and start buying every/any stock that is below 10x EBT. As investors, we face many risks. Two of the major risks are A) quality risk or value trap, i.e., paying a bargain price for something of horrible quality, and B) valuation risk, i.e., paying too much for something of superb quality. The 10x pretax rule is mainly to avoid the type B risk AFTER the type A risk has been eliminated already.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>三、警示与总结</b></h3>这里有一个强烈的警告。我并不是建议你出去开始购买每一只低于10倍EBT的股票。作为投资者，我们面临许多风险。两个主要风险是a)质量风险或价值陷阱，即为质量糟糕的东西支付便宜的价格，以及B)估值风险，即为质量一流的东西支付过高的价格。10倍税前规则主要是为了在A类风险已经消除后避免B类风险。</blockquote></p><p> So to summarize, to apply the 10x EBT rule,</p><p><blockquote>所以总结一下，应用10倍EBT规则，</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>the business should have not existential issue in the long run. However, at the end, this is largely a subjective judgement.</li>  <li>the business should have no existential issue in the short run either. This is can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage.</li>  <li>If we paid 10x pretax and bought a business that meets requirement 1 and 2, we will be paying an average price for an average business. Not the best investment ever, but 10% pretax return is not that bad either. If we get a business that offers ANY growth, then we will be buying an above average business at an average price. And we will have a large chance of a double digit return compounding for a long time (if you hold onto to it long enough like Buffett).</li> </ol> AAPL in 2016 and 2017 obviously met all of the above requirements, and it is another textbook illustration of Buffett’s value driven investment success.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>从长远来看，这项业务应该不会有生存问题。然而，归根结底，这在很大程度上是一种主观判断。</li><li>该企业在短期内也应该没有生存问题。这可以根据现金流和债务覆盖率非常可靠和客观地评估。</li><li>如果我们支付了10倍的税前费用，购买了一家满足要求1和2的企业，我们将为一家普通企业支付平均价格。不是有史以来最好的投资，但10%的税前回报也没那么糟糕。如果我们得到了一个能提供任何增长的企业，那么我们将以平均价格购买高于平均水平的企业。我们很有可能在很长一段时间内实现两位数的复合回报（如果你像巴菲特一样持有足够长的时间）。</li></ol>2016年和2017年的AAPL显然满足了上述所有要求，它是巴菲特价值驱动投资成功的又一教科书式例证。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>AAPL: why is he still holding it?</b></h3> The next question now is: why is he still holding whenits valuation is not long 10x EBT? As a matter of factor, it is at ~23x EBT now, more than double 10x EBT.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>AAPL：为什么他还拿着它？</b></h3>现在的下一个问题是：当其估值不是10倍EBT时，他为什么还持有？作为一个因素，它现在的EBT约为23倍，是EBT 10倍的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> I am not going to pretend that I know all his considerations. There are so many aspects that needs to be considered with a position of this size - tax liabilities, alternative investment candidates, opportunity cost, et al.</p><p><blockquote>我不会假装我知道他所有的考虑。这种规模的职位需要考虑很多方面——纳税义务、另类投资候选人、机会成本等等。</blockquote></p><p> But I am pretty certain about one thing – he is NOT holding AAPL as a technology stock, wishing for the next technology breakthrough and double the earning. He had made it so clear that he does not understand tech companies and will not invest in them. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual autonomous growth – a business that can almost “automatically” grow without the need of too much reinvestment.</p><p><blockquote>但我非常确定一件事——他并不是将AAPL作为科技股持有，而是希望下一次技术突破并使收益翻倍。他已经明确表示，他不了解科技公司，也不会投资它们。他持有AAPL一定是为了其永久的自主增长——这项业务几乎可以“自动”增长，而不需要太多的再投资。</blockquote></p><p> He said multiple times that there are businesses which, at the end of the day, point to a bunch of depreciated properties and equipment and tell the investors, “these are our profits.” He hates his business.</p><p><blockquote>他多次表示，有些企业最终会指着一堆折旧的财产和设备告诉投资者，“这些是我们的利润。”他讨厌他的生意。</blockquote></p><p> As we will see from the next section, APPL is the exact opposite of those businesses. And due to its ultra-high ROCE and ultra-low requirement of reinvestment to fuel future growth, it will still offer double-digit return in the longer run even under its current expensive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们将在下一节中看到的，APPL与这些业务完全相反。由于其超高的ROCE和超低的再投资要求来推动未来增长，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，从长远来看，它仍将提供两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Perpetual autonomous growth</b></h3> If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>永久自主增长</b></h3>如果你和这位作者一样，是一个长期投资者，认购所有者收益、永久增长率和股权债券的概念，那么长期回报就更简单了。它“简单地”是所有者收益收益率（“OEY”）和永久增长率（“PGR”）的总和，即，</blockquote></p><p> Longer-Term ROI = OEY + PGR</p><p><blockquote>长期ROI=OEY+PGR</blockquote></p><p> Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as AAPL has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.</p><p><blockquote>因为从长期来看，估值的所有波动都被平均掉了（最后所有的运气都被平均掉了）。企业如何使用收益（作为股息支付、保留在银行账户中或回购股票）并不重要。只要明智地使用（就像AAPL过去所做的那样），它就会体现为对企业主的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> OEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~3.6% for AAPL (~27.4x price to FCF).</p><p><blockquote>OEY是所有者的收入除以入场价格。所有的复杂性都在于对所有者收益的估计——企业的实际经济收益，而不是名义上的会计收益。在这里，作为一个粗略和保守的估计，我将使用自由现金流（“FCF”）作为所有者的收益。它是保守的，因为严格来说，所有者的收益应该是自由现金流加上用于推动增长的资本支出部分（即增长资本支出）。按照目前的价格水平，AAPL的OEY约为3.6%（价格与自由现金流之比约为27.4倍）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, the valuation is quite expensive and the OEY is merely 3.6%. But do not be under impressed yet, because there is a second part to the long term return, the part is the created by the PGR, perpetual growth rate. In the long term, the growth rate is:</p><p><blockquote>同样，估值相当昂贵，OEY仅为3.6%。但还不要沾沾自喜，因为长期回报还有第二部分，这部分是由PGR创造的，即永久增长率。从长期来看，增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> PGR = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate</p><p><blockquote>PGR=ROCE*再投资率</blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimate the PGR. The reinvestment rate is the portion of income the business plows back to fuel further growth.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业需要投资多少额外资本才能获得给定的额外收入——这是估计PGR的关键。再投资率是企业为推动进一步增长而收回的收入部分。</blockquote></p><p> So to estimate the PGR, we need to estimate two things: ROCE and reinvestment rate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要估计PGR，我们需要估计两件事：ROCE和再投资率。</blockquote></p><p> To estimate the ROCE of businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>为了估计像AAPL这样的企业的ROCE，我考虑了实际使用的资本项目：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、营运资金，包括应付账款、应收账款、存货。这些是其业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.不动产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于AAPL这样的企业来说，这是一项必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade are shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain a respectably high ROCE over the past decade: it used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 150% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articleforVisa Inc., another autonomous grower that Buffett likes, Visa features a ROCE “only” around 105%.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。正如所见，它在过去十年中能够保持相当高的ROCE：本世纪初为450%，自2016年以来近年来仍徘徊在平均150%左右。客观地看，正如我在上一篇关于巴菲特喜欢的另一家自主种植者Visa Inc.的文章中详细介绍的那样，Visa的ROCE“仅”约为105%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21191b41d6360f09d6f6496fac499a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s see the reinvestment part. In recent years, the following is how AAPL has been allocating its operation cash (“OPC”). As seen, AAPL has been using on average ~33% of the OPC as maintenance CAPEx and dividend. So these two “mandatory” have been on average costing only 1/3 of AAPL’s operation cash in recent years. The quotation mark means even though dividend is usually considered an optional cost. But for a stock with AAPL’s status, management probably won’t cut it unless they really have to.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看再投资部分。近年来，苹果公司如何分配其运营现金（“OPC”）如下。如图所示，AAPL平均使用约33%的OPC作为维护资本支出和股息。因此，这两项“强制性”近年来平均只花费了AAPL运营现金的1/3。引号意味着即使股息通常被视为可选成本。但对于苹果公司这种地位的股票，管理层可能不会削减它，除非真的迫不得已。</blockquote></p><p> For the remaining 2/3, the company does have a choice. It can use it for a variety of things: reinvest to fuel further growth, retain it to strength the balance sheet, pay an extra special dividend, pay down debt, buyback shares, et al. It obviously makes total sense to reinvest all of it to fuel further growth given its 150% ROCE. At this ROCE, $1 reinvested would be fuel $1.5 of additional earning! But the problem is that for businesses at this scale, there are just not that many opportunities to reinvest the earnings. As a result, AAPL has been allocating a part of the remaining earning, on average 70% in recently years, to buy back shares. Such repurchases, besides reflecting the confidence of the management on their own business, again also signals the lack of good reinvestment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>对于剩下的2/3，公司确实有选择。它可以将其用于多种用途：再投资以推动进一步增长、保留其以加强资产负债表、支付额外的特别股息、偿还债务、回购股票等。鉴于其150%的ROCE，将所有资金进行再投资以推动进一步增长显然是完全有意义的。在这个ROCE，1美元的再投资将带来1.5美元的额外收入！但问题是，对于这种规模的企业来说，将收益进行再投资的机会并不多。因此，AAPL一直在分配剩余收益的一部分（近年来平均为70%）来回购股票。这种回购除了反映管理层对自身业务的信心外，也再次表明缺乏良好的再投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> But all things considered, with such spectacular ROCE, AAPL does not need that much reinvestment to grow, as elaborated below.</p><p><blockquote>但综合考虑，凭借如此惊人的ROCE，AAPL不需要那么多再投资来实现增长，如下所述。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/190eeaa73f40d26feb7de2b4932718a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</blockquote></p><p> With a 150% ROCE, it means that even if AAPL only reinvests 5% of its earning to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 7.5% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earning reinvested = 150% * 5% = 7.5%). As aforementioned, this is a reason that AAPL can afford to use pretty much all the OPC for dividend and share repurchase after covering its maintenance CAPEx.</p><p><blockquote>ROCE为150%，这意味着即使AAPL只将其收益的5%进行再投资来扩大所用资本，它也可以保持7.5%的PGR（PGR=ROCE*再投资收益的比例=150%*5%=7.5%）。如前所述，这就是AAPL在支付维护资本支出后有能力将几乎所有OPC用于股息和股票回购的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~3.6%, and the PGR is about 7.5%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn’t change the long-term return dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们已经有了估计长期回报的两块拼图。按照目前的价格水平，OEY估计约为3.6%，PGR约为7.5%。因此，按当前估值计算，长期总回报率将达到两位数11%，如下图所示。同样可以看出，即使ROCE有所波动，波动也不会显着改变长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93688ad65495c50b51be46b2fcda963c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: author.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Conclusion and final thought</b></h3> Many of Buffett's largest and best deals are purchased below or around 10x EBT, ranging from Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo, Walmart, Burlington Northern, and also the more recent AAPL purchase and his $25B&nbsp;repurchases of BRK.A&nbsp;shares.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>结论和最后的思考</b></h3>巴菲特的许多最大和最好的交易都是以低于或大约10倍EBT的价格购买的，包括可口可乐、美国运通、富国银行、沃尔玛、Burlington Northern，以及最近购买的AAPL和他以25B美元回购的BRK.A股。</blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AppleInc.under the context as the largest purchase and also largest holding in the Buffett portfolio. This analysis approaches the purchase under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule. The analysis showed that When Buffett purchased AAPL in 2016 and 2017, it met all the requirements for the 10x pretax rule and represented another textbook illustration of his value driven success.</p><p><blockquote>本文将AppleInc.作为巴菲特投资组合中最大的收购和最大的持股进行分析。这一分析是在我看涨期权巴菲特10倍税前规则的框架下进行的。分析显示，当巴菲特在2016年和2017年收购AAPL时，它满足了10倍税前规则的所有要求，并代表了他价值驱动型成功的又一教科书式例证。</blockquote></p><p> Then this article also attempted to answer why he is holding it given the current relatively expensive valuation. He is definitely NOT holding AAPL as a technology stock, wishing for the next technology breakthrough to double the earning. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual autonomous growth – a business that can almost “automatically” grow without the need of too much reinvestment. From this perspective, the result show that these shares still can offer double-digit return even under its current expensive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>那么这篇文章也试图回答在目前估值相对昂贵的情况下，他为什么要持有它。他绝对不是把苹果公司作为科技股来持有，希望下一次技术突破能让收益翻倍。他持有AAPL一定是为了其永久的自主增长——这项业务几乎可以“自动”增长，而不需要太多的再投资。从这个角度来看，结果表明，即使在目前昂贵的估值下，这些股票仍然可以提供两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> And as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I’ve learned by studying Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~5%) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than 5% percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.</p><p><blockquote>作为结束本节之前的最后一点，这可能是我通过研究沃伦·巴菲特的投资哲学学到的最有价值的见解。真正的见解是，我不需要一个两位数增长的企业来产生两位数的回报。一家可靠的企业能够以百分之几（如约5%）的令人厌烦的速度提供稳定增长，只要a)以合理的估值购买，并且B)他们的ROCE足够高，以便可以通过将一小部分收入进行再投资来推动增长。从长远来看，假设增长率超过5%可能是一个危险的假设。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447893-apple-and-buffett-why-he-bought\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447893-apple-and-buffett-why-he-bought","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138697562","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffett portfolio.\nThis analysis approaches the purchase under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule.\nAnd this analysis argues that Buffett holds the AAPL shares in the long term for its perpetual growth prospects, offering double-digit return even under its current expensive valuation.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nThe investment thesis\nIf you are reading this, chances are that you already know that AppleInc. (AAPL) is the largest position in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. When many people wonder if the legend has lost his magic touch, and commented on his blunders with the airline stocks, they forgot that he made more than $100B from AAPL stocks alone! With his concentrated investment style, what he lost on the relatively minor bets such as the airlines is only a footnote.\nThis article analyzes AAPL under the context of it being the largest holding in the Buffett portfolio. This analysis first approaches his entry decision under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule. And then this analysis argues that Buffett holds the AAPL shares in the long term NOT as a technology stock – he had made it clear enough that he does not understand tech companies and will not invest in them. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual growth prospects. From this perspective, we will see that APPL will still offer double-digit return in the longer run even under its current expensive valuation.\n\nSource: DataRoma\nBuffett’s 10x Pretax Rule\nIf you’re a devout Buffett cultist like this author, you must have noticed or heard that the grand master paid ~10x pretax earnings for many of his largest and best deals. The list is a really long one, ranging from Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo, Walmart, Burlington Northern, and of course the more recent AAPL purchase and his recent $25B repurchases of BRK.A shares as analyzed in my earlier article.\nThe following chart shows the price history of AAPL and its 10x pretax earning since 2010. Pretax earnings are also referred to as \"EBT\", Earning Before Taxes, in this article. As seen, Buffett made his purchases during 2016-2017 when the price is below or near 10x EBT. I was lucky enough to have made the AAPL purchases at that time myself too.\nBuffet himself also mentioned and discussed the 10x pretax multiple times in his shareholder meetings and Q&A sessions. An example quote is provided below (highlighting was added by me):\nBuffett: “Geico would be valued differently than Gen RE and other insurance businesses because it’s rational to assume a large underwriting profit and significant growth. You cannot say that about many insurance businesses. I would love to buy a new bunch of operating businesses with similar competitive positions to the ones we own now at nine to ten times pretax earnings.”\n\nSource: author based on Seeking Alpha data\nSo are there any reasons fundamental to this 10x pretax rule, or is it only a bunch of pure coincidences? I think it is the former and there are indeed many good reasons for this rule, as listed below.\nFirst, Why pretax?\nOut of all the earning metrics, EPS, operation income, free cash, dividend, etc., why do we favor the pretax earning? I think there are at least two good reasons.\n\nAfter tax earnings do not reflect business fundamentals. Taxes can change from time to time due to factors that have no relevance to business fundamentals, such as tax law changes and capital structure change. Plus there are plenty of ways to lower the actual tax burden of a company.\n\n\nPretax earnings are easier to benchmark, say against bond earnings. The best equity investments are bond like, and when we speak of bond yield, that yield is pretax. So a 10x EBT would provide a 10% pretax earning yield, directly comparable to a 10% yield bond.\n\nSecond, why 10x?\nBesides being a nice and round number, it passes the/my common sense test. A 10x pretax multiple roughly translate into 12 to 15x PE depending on the tax rates, which is not far off from the long term average of stock valuation. Furthermore, if we buy average business at 10x pretax, we already get a 10% pretax return. And if we can do better than buying only average business (like Buffett), paying 10x pretax pretty much guarantees double digit pretax earning. Of course, the 10x here is only for businesses that are conservatively leveraged (say with interest coverage around 10x). The number needs to be adjusted for a highly leveraged business or a business with loads of cash.\nThird, warning and summary\nHere a strong warning is in order. I am NOT suggesting you go out and start buying every/any stock that is below 10x EBT. As investors, we face many risks. Two of the major risks are A) quality risk or value trap, i.e., paying a bargain price for something of horrible quality, and B) valuation risk, i.e., paying too much for something of superb quality. The 10x pretax rule is mainly to avoid the type B risk AFTER the type A risk has been eliminated already.\nSo to summarize, to apply the 10x EBT rule,\n\nthe business should have not existential issue in the long run. However, at the end, this is largely a subjective judgement.\nthe business should have no existential issue in the short run either. This is can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage.\nIf we paid 10x pretax and bought a business that meets requirement 1 and 2, we will be paying an average price for an average business. Not the best investment ever, but 10% pretax return is not that bad either. If we get a business that offers ANY growth, then we will be buying an above average business at an average price. And we will have a large chance of a double digit return compounding for a long time (if you hold onto to it long enough like Buffett).\n\nAAPL in 2016 and 2017 obviously met all of the above requirements, and it is another textbook illustration of Buffett’s value driven investment success.\nAAPL: why is he still holding it?\nThe next question now is: why is he still holding whenits valuation is not long 10x EBT? As a matter of factor, it is at ~23x EBT now, more than double 10x EBT.\nI am not going to pretend that I know all his considerations. There are so many aspects that needs to be considered with a position of this size - tax liabilities, alternative investment candidates, opportunity cost, et al.\nBut I am pretty certain about one thing – he is NOT holding AAPL as a technology stock, wishing for the next technology breakthrough and double the earning. He had made it so clear that he does not understand tech companies and will not invest in them. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual autonomous growth – a business that can almost “automatically” grow without the need of too much reinvestment.\nHe said multiple times that there are businesses which, at the end of the day, point to a bunch of depreciated properties and equipment and tell the investors, “these are our profits.” He hates his business.\nAs we will see from the next section, APPL is the exact opposite of those businesses. And due to its ultra-high ROCE and ultra-low requirement of reinvestment to fuel future growth, it will still offer double-digit return in the longer run even under its current expensive valuation.\nPerpetual autonomous growth\nIf you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,\nLonger-Term ROI = OEY + PGR\nBecause in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as AAPL has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.\nOEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~3.6% for AAPL (~27.4x price to FCF).\nAgain, the valuation is quite expensive and the OEY is merely 3.6%. But do not be under impressed yet, because there is a second part to the long term return, the part is the created by the PGR, perpetual growth rate. In the long term, the growth rate is:\nPGR = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income – a key to estimate the PGR. The reinvestment rate is the portion of income the business plows back to fuel further growth.\nSo to estimate the PGR, we need to estimate two things: ROCE and reinvestment rate.\nTo estimate the ROCE of businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade are shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain a respectably high ROCE over the past decade: it used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 150% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articleforVisa Inc., another autonomous grower that Buffett likes, Visa features a ROCE “only” around 105%.\n\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nNow let’s see the reinvestment part. In recent years, the following is how AAPL has been allocating its operation cash (“OPC”). As seen, AAPL has been using on average ~33% of the OPC as maintenance CAPEx and dividend. So these two “mandatory” have been on average costing only 1/3 of AAPL’s operation cash in recent years. The quotation mark means even though dividend is usually considered an optional cost. But for a stock with AAPL’s status, management probably won’t cut it unless they really have to.\nFor the remaining 2/3, the company does have a choice. It can use it for a variety of things: reinvest to fuel further growth, retain it to strength the balance sheet, pay an extra special dividend, pay down debt, buyback shares, et al. It obviously makes total sense to reinvest all of it to fuel further growth given its 150% ROCE. At this ROCE, $1 reinvested would be fuel $1.5 of additional earning! But the problem is that for businesses at this scale, there are just not that many opportunities to reinvest the earnings. As a result, AAPL has been allocating a part of the remaining earning, on average 70% in recently years, to buy back shares. Such repurchases, besides reflecting the confidence of the management on their own business, again also signals the lack of good reinvestment opportunities.\nBut all things considered, with such spectacular ROCE, AAPL does not need that much reinvestment to grow, as elaborated below.\n\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nWith a 150% ROCE, it means that even if AAPL only reinvests 5% of its earning to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 7.5% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earning reinvested = 150% * 5% = 7.5%). As aforementioned, this is a reason that AAPL can afford to use pretty much all the OPC for dividend and share repurchase after covering its maintenance CAPEx.\nNow we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~3.6%, and the PGR is about 7.5%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn’t change the long-term return dramatically.\n\nSource: author.\nConclusion and final thought\nMany of Buffett's largest and best deals are purchased below or around 10x EBT, ranging from Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo, Walmart, Burlington Northern, and also the more recent AAPL purchase and his $25B repurchases of BRK.A shares.\nThis article analyzes AppleInc.under the context as the largest purchase and also largest holding in the Buffett portfolio. This analysis approaches the purchase under a framework that I call the Buffett’s 10x Pretax Rule. The analysis showed that When Buffett purchased AAPL in 2016 and 2017, it met all the requirements for the 10x pretax rule and represented another textbook illustration of his value driven success.\nThen this article also attempted to answer why he is holding it given the current relatively expensive valuation. He is definitely NOT holding AAPL as a technology stock, wishing for the next technology breakthrough to double the earning. He must be holding AAPL for its perpetual autonomous growth – a business that can almost “automatically” grow without the need of too much reinvestment. From this perspective, the result show that these shares still can offer double-digit return even under its current expensive valuation.\nAnd as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I’ve learned by studying Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~5%) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than 5% percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898382793,"gmtCreate":1628473894712,"gmtModify":1631894013118,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898382793","repostId":"1144988858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891257207,"gmtCreate":1628394598409,"gmtModify":1631894016235,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891257207","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899496267,"gmtCreate":1628209359859,"gmtModify":1631894013141,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899496267","repostId":"2157645347","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":814953111,"gmtCreate":1630749207133,"gmtModify":1631889125460,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814953111","repostId":"1194566233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832941056,"gmtCreate":1629575399075,"gmtModify":1631889125468,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832941056","repostId":"2161149745","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833352350,"gmtCreate":1629207647970,"gmtModify":1631889125469,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833352350","repostId":"1115558959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801459330,"gmtCreate":1627529753920,"gmtModify":1631894016229,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801459330","repostId":"1127264445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127264445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627514621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127264445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127264445","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after th","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理Ellen Hazen表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理Ellen Hazen表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127264445","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.\nKeeping the market in check, shares of tech giant Apple Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.\nIn a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.\n“It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.\nRight after the Fed statement, the S&P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.\nInvestors have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.\nThe central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.\nThe Nasdaq ended higher and shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.\nThe Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.\n“They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.\nIn other earnings news, Microsoft Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142821380,"gmtCreate":1626141816140,"gmtModify":1633929712910,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142821380","repostId":"1149354714","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885803548,"gmtCreate":1631772036684,"gmtModify":1631889125454,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;👍","listText":"&nbsp;👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885803548","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889404085,"gmtCreate":1631165188047,"gmtModify":1631889125457,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889404085","repostId":"2165399556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143777502,"gmtCreate":1625821241106,"gmtModify":1633936992391,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143777502","repostId":"1105602964","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143921336,"gmtCreate":1625756593225,"gmtModify":1633937619375,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>LETS GOOOO 🚀🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>LETS GOOOO 🚀🚀","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$LETS GOOOO 🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e139bea1f048f5cd5757e475a03efea","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143921336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":867001801,"gmtCreate":1633157027469,"gmtModify":1633157027663,"author":{"id":"3582008717283503","authorId":"3582008717283503","name":"Dazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afb15bdfd792779c336ccb3aca893815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582008717283503","idStr":"3582008717283503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867001801","repostId":"1134305481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134305481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633152909,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134305481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-02 13:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134305481","media":"The motley fool","summary":"Key Points\n\nCrocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this mo","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Crocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this month.</li>  <li>AMC would have to double from here to revisit its June highs. Check the upcoming theatrical release slate to know why movie theaters are about to get a whole lot better.</li>  <li>Upstart is revolutionizing the way creditworthiness is determined in consumer loans, and it's laughing all the way to the bank.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Crocs今年每个季度都上调了指引。它将于本月晚些时候再次报道。</li><li>AMC必须在此基础上翻一番才能重温6月份的高点。查看即将上映的影院上映名单，了解为什么电影院会变得更好。</li><li>Upstart正在彻底改变消费贷款中确定信用度的方式，并且一直笑到银行。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> It's been a volatile year for stocks, but naturally some investments have fared better than others. Over 300 stocks have more than doubled in 2021. Many of those winning investments will be lucky if they can hold those gains through the final three months of the year, but what about the names that have the potential to double again?</p><p><blockquote>对于股市来说，今年是动荡的一年，但自然有些投资的表现比其他投资更好。超过300只股票在2021年上涨了一倍多。如果许多获胜的投资能够在今年最后三个月保持这些收益，那将是幸运的，但那些有潜力再次翻倍的投资呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crocs</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:CROX),<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), and<b>Upstart</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:UPST)have more than doubled in value through the first nine months of 2021. Let's see why they have what it takes to possibly repeat the feat in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote><b>卡骆驰</b>（纳斯达克：CROX），<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC），以及<b>暴发户</b>（纳斯达克：UPST）的价值在2021年前9个月翻了一番多。让我们看看为什么他们有能力在第四季度重复这一壮举。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Crocs</p><p><blockquote>1.Crocs</blockquote></p><p> Remember those bright rubbery shoes with holes in them? They're back in a big way. Crocs sales are booming since the pandemic began, and the stock is following suit with a 129% increase through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>还记得那双有洞的亮色胶鞋吗？他们大举回来了。自疫情爆发以来，Crocs的销量一直在蓬勃发展，该股也紧随其后，在2021年前9个月上涨了129%。</blockquote></p><p> The comfortable resin shoes were already making a comeback before the COVID-19 crisis with double-digit revenue growth in 2019 before repeating the feat in 2020. Momentum is what's really taking Crocs to a higher level in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>舒适的树脂鞋在新冠肺炎危机之前就已经卷土重来，2019年的收入实现了两位数的增长，然后在2020年重复了这一壮举。动力才是真正让Crocs在2021年更上一层楼的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The year began with the footwear maker projecting 20%-to-25% top-line growth for the entire year back in February. Guidance was bumped higher -- to between 40% and 50% growth -- the following quarter. It happened again this summer, with Crocs now targeting a 60%-to-65% surge in revenue for all of 2021. What do you think will happen if those targets get pushed even higher when it reports third-quarter results later this month?</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，这家鞋类制造商在2月份预计全年营收将增长20%至25%。下个季度的指引被上调至40%至50%之间。这种情况在今年夏天再次发生，Crocs现在的目标是2021年全年收入增长60%至65%。如果本月晚些时候公布第三季度业绩时这些目标被推得更高，您认为会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Despite a stock that has popped nearly sixfold since the start of 2019, Crocs is reasonably priced given its accelerating growth. It's trading at 21 times this year's earnings and just 17 times next year's target. There's clearly room to increase those multiples, and Wall Street's finally as comfortable with Crocs as an investment as its customers are in its shoes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自2019年初以来，Crocs的股价已上涨近六倍，但鉴于其加速增长，其定价合理。该公司今年市盈率为21倍，明年目标市盈率仅为17倍。显然还有增加这些市盈率的空间，华尔街终于像客户一样对Crocs作为一项投资感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> 2. AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>2.AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> You may be surprised to find the country's leading multiplex operator on this list, but plot twists are what make movies so good. It's certainly true that AMC Entertainment has appreciated -- in terms of both stock price and a fivefold explosion in shares outstanding -- to the point where its valuation is out of whack relative to its peers'. If you want a pure investing play on the movie theater industry's recovery, you will find more attractively priced stocks toscratchthatitch.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现这个国家领先的多厅影院运营商在这个名单上，但情节曲折是电影如此优秀的原因。AMC院线确实已经升值——无论是股价还是流通股数量都增长了五倍——以至于其估值相对于同行来说已经不正常了。如果您想对电影院行业的复苏进行纯粹的投资，您会发现价格更具吸引力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, as ameme stockand cultural phenomenon it's hard to argue against what AMC has done to translate its popularity among retail investors into a legitimate market share grab in the recovery process. No company has seen its market cap inflate as much as AMC has this year, but this is also a stock that enters the fourth quarter with a stock price that is a little more than half of what it was when it peaked in June. In short, it would have to double from here to revisit its all-time high -- but isn't that always possible with the poster child for 2021 momentum stocks?</p><p><blockquote>然而，作为一种流行的股票和文化现象，很难否认AMC在复苏过程中将其在散户投资者中的受欢迎程度转化为合法的市场份额抢夺。今年没有一家公司的市值像AMC那样膨胀，但这也是一只进入第四季度的股票，股价仅为6月份峰值时的一半多一点。简而言之，它必须在这里翻倍才能重温历史高点——但对于2021年动量股的典型代表来说，这难道不总是可能的吗？</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally speaking, the catalysts are also there.<i>Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings</i>shattered box office records over Labor Day weekend, but the initial excitement fizzled out when subsequent weekends were abysmal. However, it's all about the pipeline. Studios pushed out September releases into October and beyond when the delta variant resulted in a spike in COVID-19 cases. We're now seeing the highly anticipated films start to come back, starting with the new James Bond movie next weekend. The fourth quarter should be a lot stronger for the industry than the naysayers think, and if AMC stock gets back to where it was in early June -- fundamentally earned this time -- it will have to double from here.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，催化剂也在。<i>尚气与十环传说</i>劳动节周末打破了票房记录，但最初的兴奋随着随后的周末糟糕透顶而消失。然而，这一切都与管道有关。当德尔塔变异毒株导致新冠肺炎病例激增时，电影公司将9月的上映推迟到10月及以后。我们现在看到备受期待的电影开始回归，从下周末的新詹姆斯·邦德电影开始。该行业第四季度的表现应该比反对者想象的要强劲得多，如果AMC股价回到6月初的水平——这次基本上是盈利的——那么它将不得不在此基础上翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Upstart</p><p><blockquote>3.暴发户</blockquote></p><p> I love when industries ripe for disruption get upended, and that's what Upstart is doing with the lending industry. Upstart usesartificial intelligenceand machine learning to make better calls on assessing risk profiles and creditworthiness for folks who don't typically get approved for consumer loans.</p><p><blockquote>我喜欢颠覆成熟的行业被颠覆，这就是Upstart在贷款行业所做的事情。Upstart使用人工智能和机器学习来更好地评级评估那些通常不会获得消费贷款批准的人的风险状况和信用度。</blockquote></p><p> Growth is bonkers. Revenue seemed to be decelerating sharply, with slowing growth spurts of 89%, 52%, and 27% in the last three years respectively. Now that consumers are becoming aware of Upstart as a better alternative to payday loans and other predatory lending products, business is skyrocketing. Revenue rose 90% in the first quarter, only to surge 1,018% in its latest report. And no, that's not a typo.</p><p><blockquote>增长是疯狂的。收入似乎正在急剧减速，过去三年的增长分别放缓了89%、52%和27%。现在，消费者开始意识到Upstart是发薪日贷款和其他掠夺性贷款产品的更好替代品，业务正在飙升。第一季度收入增长90%，但在最新报告中却飙升了1,018%。不，这不是错别字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With Upstart now expanding into the auto loans market, the potential for its better alternative to stodgy credit scores is just getting started. The stock has been a seven-bagger through the first three quarters of 2021, but the runway is long for this disruptive jet.</p><p><blockquote>随着Upstart现在扩展到汽车贷款市场，其更好的替代乏味信用评分的潜力才刚刚开始。该股在2021年前三个季度已上涨七倍，但对于这款颠覆性喷气式飞机来说，跑道还很长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks That Can Double Again in the Fourth Quarter<blockquote>四季度可以再次翻倍的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-02 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Crocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this month.</li>  <li>AMC would have to double from here to revisit its June highs. Check the upcoming theatrical release slate to know why movie theaters are about to get a whole lot better.</li>  <li>Upstart is revolutionizing the way creditworthiness is determined in consumer loans, and it's laughing all the way to the bank.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Crocs今年每个季度都上调了指引。它将于本月晚些时候再次报道。</li><li>AMC必须在此基础上翻一番才能重温6月份的高点。查看即将上映的影院上映名单，了解为什么电影院会变得更好。</li><li>Upstart正在彻底改变消费贷款中确定信用度的方式，并且一直笑到银行。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> It's been a volatile year for stocks, but naturally some investments have fared better than others. Over 300 stocks have more than doubled in 2021. Many of those winning investments will be lucky if they can hold those gains through the final three months of the year, but what about the names that have the potential to double again?</p><p><blockquote>对于股市来说，今年是动荡的一年，但自然有些投资的表现比其他投资更好。超过300只股票在2021年上涨了一倍多。如果许多获胜的投资能够在今年最后三个月保持这些收益，那将是幸运的，但那些有潜力再次翻倍的投资呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crocs</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:CROX),<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), and<b>Upstart</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:UPST)have more than doubled in value through the first nine months of 2021. Let's see why they have what it takes to possibly repeat the feat in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote><b>卡骆驰</b>（纳斯达克：CROX），<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC），以及<b>暴发户</b>（纳斯达克：UPST）的价值在2021年前9个月翻了一番多。让我们看看为什么他们有能力在第四季度重复这一壮举。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Crocs</p><p><blockquote>1.Crocs</blockquote></p><p> Remember those bright rubbery shoes with holes in them? They're back in a big way. Crocs sales are booming since the pandemic began, and the stock is following suit with a 129% increase through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>还记得那双有洞的亮色胶鞋吗？他们大举回来了。自疫情爆发以来，Crocs的销量一直在蓬勃发展，该股也紧随其后，在2021年前9个月上涨了129%。</blockquote></p><p> The comfortable resin shoes were already making a comeback before the COVID-19 crisis with double-digit revenue growth in 2019 before repeating the feat in 2020. Momentum is what's really taking Crocs to a higher level in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>舒适的树脂鞋在新冠肺炎危机之前就已经卷土重来，2019年的收入实现了两位数的增长，然后在2020年重复了这一壮举。动力才是真正让Crocs在2021年更上一层楼的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The year began with the footwear maker projecting 20%-to-25% top-line growth for the entire year back in February. Guidance was bumped higher -- to between 40% and 50% growth -- the following quarter. It happened again this summer, with Crocs now targeting a 60%-to-65% surge in revenue for all of 2021. What do you think will happen if those targets get pushed even higher when it reports third-quarter results later this month?</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，这家鞋类制造商在2月份预计全年营收将增长20%至25%。下个季度的指引被上调至40%至50%之间。这种情况在今年夏天再次发生，Crocs现在的目标是2021年全年收入增长60%至65%。如果本月晚些时候公布第三季度业绩时这些目标被推得更高，您认为会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Despite a stock that has popped nearly sixfold since the start of 2019, Crocs is reasonably priced given its accelerating growth. It's trading at 21 times this year's earnings and just 17 times next year's target. There's clearly room to increase those multiples, and Wall Street's finally as comfortable with Crocs as an investment as its customers are in its shoes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自2019年初以来，Crocs的股价已上涨近六倍，但鉴于其加速增长，其定价合理。该公司今年市盈率为21倍，明年目标市盈率仅为17倍。显然还有增加这些市盈率的空间，华尔街终于像客户一样对Crocs作为一项投资感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> 2. AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>2.AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> You may be surprised to find the country's leading multiplex operator on this list, but plot twists are what make movies so good. It's certainly true that AMC Entertainment has appreciated -- in terms of both stock price and a fivefold explosion in shares outstanding -- to the point where its valuation is out of whack relative to its peers'. If you want a pure investing play on the movie theater industry's recovery, you will find more attractively priced stocks toscratchthatitch.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会惊讶地发现这个国家领先的多厅影院运营商在这个名单上，但情节曲折是电影如此优秀的原因。AMC院线确实已经升值——无论是股价还是流通股数量都增长了五倍——以至于其估值相对于同行来说已经不正常了。如果您想对电影院行业的复苏进行纯粹的投资，您会发现价格更具吸引力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, as ameme stockand cultural phenomenon it's hard to argue against what AMC has done to translate its popularity among retail investors into a legitimate market share grab in the recovery process. No company has seen its market cap inflate as much as AMC has this year, but this is also a stock that enters the fourth quarter with a stock price that is a little more than half of what it was when it peaked in June. In short, it would have to double from here to revisit its all-time high -- but isn't that always possible with the poster child for 2021 momentum stocks?</p><p><blockquote>然而，作为一种流行的股票和文化现象，很难否认AMC在复苏过程中将其在散户投资者中的受欢迎程度转化为合法的市场份额抢夺。今年没有一家公司的市值像AMC那样膨胀，但这也是一只进入第四季度的股票，股价仅为6月份峰值时的一半多一点。简而言之，它必须在这里翻倍才能重温历史高点——但对于2021年动量股的典型代表来说，这难道不总是可能的吗？</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally speaking, the catalysts are also there.<i>Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings</i>shattered box office records over Labor Day weekend, but the initial excitement fizzled out when subsequent weekends were abysmal. However, it's all about the pipeline. Studios pushed out September releases into October and beyond when the delta variant resulted in a spike in COVID-19 cases. We're now seeing the highly anticipated films start to come back, starting with the new James Bond movie next weekend. The fourth quarter should be a lot stronger for the industry than the naysayers think, and if AMC stock gets back to where it was in early June -- fundamentally earned this time -- it will have to double from here.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，催化剂也在。<i>尚气与十环传说</i>劳动节周末打破了票房记录，但最初的兴奋随着随后的周末糟糕透顶而消失。然而，这一切都与管道有关。当德尔塔变异毒株导致新冠肺炎病例激增时，电影公司将9月的上映推迟到10月及以后。我们现在看到备受期待的电影开始回归，从下周末的新詹姆斯·邦德电影开始。该行业第四季度的表现应该比反对者想象的要强劲得多，如果AMC股价回到6月初的水平——这次基本上是盈利的——那么它将不得不在此基础上翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Upstart</p><p><blockquote>3.暴发户</blockquote></p><p> I love when industries ripe for disruption get upended, and that's what Upstart is doing with the lending industry. Upstart usesartificial intelligenceand machine learning to make better calls on assessing risk profiles and creditworthiness for folks who don't typically get approved for consumer loans.</p><p><blockquote>我喜欢颠覆成熟的行业被颠覆，这就是Upstart在贷款行业所做的事情。Upstart使用人工智能和机器学习来更好地评级评估那些通常不会获得消费贷款批准的人的风险状况和信用度。</blockquote></p><p> Growth is bonkers. Revenue seemed to be decelerating sharply, with slowing growth spurts of 89%, 52%, and 27% in the last three years respectively. Now that consumers are becoming aware of Upstart as a better alternative to payday loans and other predatory lending products, business is skyrocketing. Revenue rose 90% in the first quarter, only to surge 1,018% in its latest report. And no, that's not a typo.</p><p><blockquote>增长是疯狂的。收入似乎正在急剧减速，过去三年的增长分别放缓了89%、52%和27%。现在，消费者开始意识到Upstart是发薪日贷款和其他掠夺性贷款产品的更好替代品，业务正在飙升。第一季度收入增长90%，但在最新报告中却飙升了1,018%。不，这不是错别字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With Upstart now expanding into the auto loans market, the potential for its better alternative to stodgy credit scores is just getting started. The stock has been a seven-bagger through the first three quarters of 2021, but the runway is long for this disruptive jet.</p><p><blockquote>随着Upstart现在扩展到汽车贷款市场，其更好的替代乏味信用评分的潜力才刚刚开始。该股在2021年前三个季度已上涨七倍，但对于这款颠覆性喷气式飞机来说，跑道还很长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/01/3-stocks-that-can-double-again-in-the-fourth-quart/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","CROX":"卡骆驰"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/01/3-stocks-that-can-double-again-in-the-fourth-quart/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134305481","content_text":"Key Points\n\nCrocs has jacked up its guidance every quarter this year. It reports again later this month.\nAMC would have to double from here to revisit its June highs. Check the upcoming theatrical release slate to know why movie theaters are about to get a whole lot better.\nUpstart is revolutionizing the way creditworthiness is determined in consumer loans, and it's laughing all the way to the bank.\n\n\nIt's been a volatile year for stocks, but naturally some investments have fared better than others. Over 300 stocks have more than doubled in 2021. Many of those winning investments will be lucky if they can hold those gains through the final three months of the year, but what about the names that have the potential to double again?\nCrocs (NASDAQ:CROX),AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC), andUpstart (NASDAQ:UPST)have more than doubled in value through the first nine months of 2021. Let's see why they have what it takes to possibly repeat the feat in the fourth quarter.\n1. Crocs\nRemember those bright rubbery shoes with holes in them? They're back in a big way. Crocs sales are booming since the pandemic began, and the stock is following suit with a 129% increase through the first nine months of 2021.\nThe comfortable resin shoes were already making a comeback before the COVID-19 crisis with double-digit revenue growth in 2019 before repeating the feat in 2020. Momentum is what's really taking Crocs to a higher level in 2021.\nThe year began with the footwear maker projecting 20%-to-25% top-line growth for the entire year back in February. Guidance was bumped higher -- to between 40% and 50% growth -- the following quarter. It happened again this summer, with Crocs now targeting a 60%-to-65% surge in revenue for all of 2021. What do you think will happen if those targets get pushed even higher when it reports third-quarter results later this month?\nDespite a stock that has popped nearly sixfold since the start of 2019, Crocs is reasonably priced given its accelerating growth. It's trading at 21 times this year's earnings and just 17 times next year's target. There's clearly room to increase those multiples, and Wall Street's finally as comfortable with Crocs as an investment as its customers are in its shoes.\n2. AMC Entertainment\nYou may be surprised to find the country's leading multiplex operator on this list, but plot twists are what make movies so good. It's certainly true that AMC Entertainment has appreciated -- in terms of both stock price and a fivefold explosion in shares outstanding -- to the point where its valuation is out of whack relative to its peers'. If you want a pure investing play on the movie theater industry's recovery, you will find more attractively priced stocks toscratchthatitch.\nHowever, as ameme stockand cultural phenomenon it's hard to argue against what AMC has done to translate its popularity among retail investors into a legitimate market share grab in the recovery process. No company has seen its market cap inflate as much as AMC has this year, but this is also a stock that enters the fourth quarter with a stock price that is a little more than half of what it was when it peaked in June. In short, it would have to double from here to revisit its all-time high -- but isn't that always possible with the poster child for 2021 momentum stocks?\nFundamentally speaking, the catalysts are also there.Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Ringsshattered box office records over Labor Day weekend, but the initial excitement fizzled out when subsequent weekends were abysmal. However, it's all about the pipeline. Studios pushed out September releases into October and beyond when the delta variant resulted in a spike in COVID-19 cases. We're now seeing the highly anticipated films start to come back, starting with the new James Bond movie next weekend. The fourth quarter should be a lot stronger for the industry than the naysayers think, and if AMC stock gets back to where it was in early June -- fundamentally earned this time -- it will have to double from here.\n3. Upstart\nI love when industries ripe for disruption get upended, and that's what Upstart is doing with the lending industry. Upstart usesartificial intelligenceand machine learning to make better calls on assessing risk profiles and creditworthiness for folks who don't typically get approved for consumer loans.\nGrowth is bonkers. Revenue seemed to be decelerating sharply, with slowing growth spurts of 89%, 52%, and 27% in the last three years respectively. Now that consumers are becoming aware of Upstart as a better alternative to payday loans and other predatory lending products, business is skyrocketing. Revenue rose 90% in the first quarter, only to surge 1,018% in its latest report. And no, that's not a typo.\nWith Upstart now expanding into the auto loans market, the potential for its better alternative to stodgy credit scores is just getting started. The stock has been a seven-bagger through the first three quarters of 2021, but the runway is long for this disruptive jet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UPST":0.9,"CROX":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}