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2021-06-18

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li

2021-09-07

[微笑]

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-10-18

[微笑]

Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-06-19

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2021-10-17

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2021-10-04

[微笑]

Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>

2021-09-10

[微笑]

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2021-09-05

[微笑]

Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-18

[微笑]

US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote>

2021-10-06

[流泪]

Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>

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11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股消息导致中国科技京东今日暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162095041","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"JD.com stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company.At least, Tencent will give away most of its stake in the company. It announced a special one-time dividend that will have it distributing shares of JD stock to its shareholders. That will have to reduce its ownership of the company’s stock by 457 million. That will drop its stake from 17% to 2.3%.According to Tencent, it’s reducing its stake in JD.com because the com","content":"<p><div> JD.com(NASDAQ:JD) stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent(OTCMKTS:TCEHY) giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company. At least, Tencent will give away most of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）股价周四遭受重创，此前有消息称腾讯控股（OTCMKTS:TCEHY）将出售其在这家中国电子商务公司的股份。至少，腾讯控股会放弃大部分……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股消息导致中国科技京东今日暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股消息导致中国科技京东今日暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> JD.com(NASDAQ:JD) stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent(OTCMKTS:TCEHY) giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company. At least, Tencent will give away most of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）股价周四遭受重创，此前有消息称腾讯控股（OTCMKTS:TCEHY）将出售其在这家中国电子商务公司的股份。至少，腾讯控股会放弃大部分……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162095041","content_text":"JD.com(NASDAQ:JD) stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent(OTCMKTS:TCEHY) giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company.\nAt least, Tencent will give away most of its stake in the company. It announced a special one-time dividend that will have it distributing shares of JD stock to its shareholders. That will have to reduce its ownership of the company’s stock by 457 million. That will drop its stake from 17% to 2.3%.\nAccording to Tencent, it’s reducing its stake in JD.com because the company is now viable and doesn’t need its support. The Chinese company says that this is simply part of its investment strategy.\nWhile that may be true, there could be other factors at play. Chinese regulators have been cracking down on companies growing too large with fees. It’s possible that Tencent decided to give away the majority of its stake in JD.com to avoid possible action from the government, reports CNBC.\nNo matter the reason, it’s JD stock that is feeling the heat today over Tencent’s move. That includes heavy trading of the shares. As of this writing, more than 18 million shares of the company’s stock have changed hands. That’s already above the company’s daily average trading volume of about 9.5 million shares.\nJD stock is down 6.92% and TCEHY stock is up 5.79% on Thursday. JD stock is down 20.2% since the start of the year and TCEHY stock is down 17.6% year-to-date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"JD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691207528,"gmtCreate":1640190215370,"gmtModify":1640190215613,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691207528","repostId":"1169752126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169752126","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1640186708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169752126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么 Paychex 股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169752126","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Paychex Inc is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal seco","content":"<p><b>Paychex Inc</b>&nbsp;is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2022 financial results.</p><p><blockquote><b>Paychex公司</b>该公司公布好于预期的 2022 年第二季度财务业绩后，周三股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex reported quarterly adjusted&nbsp;earnings of 91 cents per share, which beat the estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.11 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.06 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex 报告季度调整后每股收益为 91 美分，超出了每股 80 美分的预期。该公司公布季度收入为 11.1 亿美元，超出预期的 10.6 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex said it expects fiscal-year 2022 revenue growth of 10% to 11%.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex 表示，预计 2022 财年收入增长 10% 至 11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We posted strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, with growth of 13% in total revenue and 21% in diluted earnings per share. Results were driven by growth in employees within our client base and continued strong sales growth and client retention,\" said&nbsp;<b>Martin Mucci</b>, chairman and CEO of Paychex.</p><p><blockquote>“我们公布了 2022 财年第二季度强劲的财务业绩，总收入增长 13%，稀释每股收益增长 21%。业绩得益于客户群员工的增长以及持续强劲的销售增长和客户保留率，”他说<b>马丁·穆奇</b>Paychex 董事长兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management&nbsp;and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex是一家领先的薪资、人力资本管理和保险解决方案提供商，主要为美国的中小型客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYX Price Action:</b>Paychex has traded as low as $85.30 over a 52-week period. It's making new 52-week highs during Wednesday's trading session.</p><p><blockquote><b>PAYX价格走势：</b>Paychex 在 52 周内的交易价格低至 85.30 美元。在周三的交易时段，它创下了 52 周新高。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was up 5.54% at $133.44.</p><p><blockquote>该股上涨 5.54%，至 133.44 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么 Paychex 股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么 Paychex 股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-22 23:25</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Paychex Inc</b>&nbsp;is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2022 financial results.</p><p><blockquote><b>Paychex公司</b>该公司公布好于预期的 2022 年第二季度财务业绩后，周三股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex reported quarterly adjusted&nbsp;earnings of 91 cents per share, which beat the estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.11 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.06 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex 报告季度调整后每股收益为 91 美分，超出了每股 80 美分的预期。该公司公布季度收入为 11.1 亿美元，超出预期的 10.6 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex said it expects fiscal-year 2022 revenue growth of 10% to 11%.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex 表示，预计 2022 财年收入增长 10% 至 11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We posted strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, with growth of 13% in total revenue and 21% in diluted earnings per share. Results were driven by growth in employees within our client base and continued strong sales growth and client retention,\" said&nbsp;<b>Martin Mucci</b>, chairman and CEO of Paychex.</p><p><blockquote>“我们公布了 2022 财年第二季度强劲的财务业绩，总收入增长 13%，稀释每股收益增长 21%。业绩得益于客户群员工的增长以及持续强劲的销售增长和客户保留率，”他说<b>马丁·穆奇</b>Paychex 董事长兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management&nbsp;and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex是一家领先的薪资、人力资本管理和保险解决方案提供商，主要为美国的中小型客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYX Price Action:</b>Paychex has traded as low as $85.30 over a 52-week period. It's making new 52-week highs during Wednesday's trading session.</p><p><blockquote><b>PAYX价格走势：</b>Paychex 在 52 周内的交易价格低至 85.30 美元。在周三的交易时段，它创下了 52 周新高。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was up 5.54% at $133.44.</p><p><blockquote>该股上涨 5.54%，至 133.44 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PAYX":"沛齐"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169752126","content_text":"Paychex Inc is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2022 financial results.\nPaychex reported quarterly adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which beat the estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.11 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.06 billion.\nPaychex said it expects fiscal-year 2022 revenue growth of 10% to 11%.\n\"We posted strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, with growth of 13% in total revenue and 21% in diluted earnings per share. Results were driven by growth in employees within our client base and continued strong sales growth and client retention,\" said Martin Mucci, chairman and CEO of Paychex.\nPaychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States.\nPAYX Price Action:Paychex has traded as low as $85.30 over a 52-week period. It's making new 52-week highs during Wednesday's trading session.\nThe stock was up 5.54% at $133.44.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PAYX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691831090,"gmtCreate":1640161923704,"gmtModify":1640161923994,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691831090","repostId":"1148139257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148139257","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640156605,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148139257?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会等待这些价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148139257","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.</li>  <li>Data Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.</li>  <li>But the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.</li>  <li>I'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16229a92c1ab97cde25cb10d9bf33c38\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达的业务和技术是首屈一指的，该公司已经证明它可以创造和领导多个市场。</li><li>数据中心将在收入方面占据主导地位，也是投资者应该想要的；该部门推动毛利率。</li><li>但该股的定价正处于漫长的增长轨道上，并且不会在证明估值合理性所需的时间内实现这一目标。</li><li>我满足于持有这里，但会在264美元及以下加价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>米哈伊尔·科诺普列夫/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>很难找到一家公司能够在多个市场中主导一个领域。然而，你肯定可以找到在一个市场中主导一个领域的公司。例如，网飞（NFLX）在电影/节目的流媒体领域占据主导地位，但在体育直播或视频游戏中却没有。很难找到一家公司在计算能力等一个领域占据主导地位，同时在游戏、数据中心和专业渲染等不同市场占据主导地位。但是，英伟达（NVDA）非常符合要求。其专业计算能力领域已经变得无与伦比，通过创造新技术和用例以惊人的速度增长收入。随着其数据中心部门准备接管公司，这正在推动加速增长，并在市场上获得了丰厚的回报。但即便如此，我也无法证明以如此高的估值购买它是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with&nbsp;the record to prove it&nbsp;- but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思，我不仅是一个狂热的英伟达多头——有记录证明了这一点——而且在投资它方面也做得非常好。它已成为我投资生涯中最大的股票回报之一。而且，正如我稍后会谈到的，英伟达的主导地位不会很快减弱。但是，即便如此，建立 300 美元以上的头寸仍然存在更多风险，因为增长率必须在更长时间内保持更高的水平才能与估值相匹配。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Business Strength On Two Fronts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在两个方面拥有强大的业务实力</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达超出预期并提高指引在过去几个季度并不是什么新鲜事。不过，有趣的是，它有能力在供应紧张时期和季节性疲软的季度继续发展游戏部门。这一点在该公司第三季度游戏收入环比增长 5.2% 的能力中显而易见。不过，管理层预计这种优势将继续下去。据其称，游戏和数据中心将推动第四季度的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>We expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.</i>    Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call  The key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.</p><p><blockquote><i>我们预计数据中心和游戏将推动环比增长，足以抵消 CMP 的下降。</i>英伟达首席财务官，第三季度收益看涨期权 关键在于数据中心的增长在过去几个季度超过了游戏的增长。因此，如果数据中心在本季度（FQ4 '22）自 FQ2 '21 以来首次达到或超过游戏收入，我不会感到惊讶。这是因为数据中心的增长在过去两个季度有所回升，超过了游戏的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa9ae7f41224f726f309ec9ce84a1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，Nvidia 第 3 季度收入趋势数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.</p><p><blockquote>正如二级轴上的季度环比线所示，数据中心自 2021 年第四季度以来加速增长，而游戏增长自 2022 年第一季度以来放缓。21年第二季度的大幅增长与Mellanox的收购有关，因为我概述的增长始于21年第四季度，所以它变得独立于Mellanox，因为比较是Q/Q而不是Y/Y。在 Q3 '21 和 Q1 '22 之间名义连续增长了三个季度之后，情况尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我预计数据中心不会在2022年第四季度以24%或更多的速度环比增长，但我确实预计它的增长速度会超过游戏。根据我们从博通 (AVGO) 和 Marvell (MRVL) 等其他公司最近的收益中看到的情况，数据中心在今年年底看起来非常强劲。因此，我估计数据中心增长14%，游戏增长5%（环比）。虽然这对这两个部门来说都是一个减速，但如果整个季度的表现超出我的预期，我已经为数据中心留出了空间来弥补我在计算 it 和公司王冠游戏之间的 3500 万美元差额。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Digging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.</p><p><blockquote>进一步挖掘，注意哪个部门的环比增长与毛利率一致。更准确地说，数据中心在it和游戏之间的收入份额构成是推动毛利率趋势的因素（以（DC）/（DC+游戏）计算），如下所示。数据中心跃居第一正是投资者所希望的，因为它可以提高毛利率。Omniverse和元宇宙的故事与一个更重要的数据中心部门完美契合。这有助于英伟达在过去几年中一直在推动数据中心的增长，早在 2019 年宣布收购 Mellanox 之前，因为该公司领先于科技行业为元宇宙需求做好准备所需的曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce95b60f491febf2a5cc611f983de1a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达季度新闻稿）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是英伟达在业务方面表现出色并将继续如此的重要原因。其两个主要市场都有实力保证，而且数据中心和 PC 对 GPU 的需求不断增长、强劲。就英伟达的业务而言，它是我最喜欢的业务之一，并且具有通过其不断改进的技术创造新的用例和终端市场需求的最大潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Business Meets Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业与股票的交汇处</b></blockquote></p><p> The points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?</p><p><blockquote>我刚才讨论的要点是为什么该股的估值在过去几个月里飙升——它是在数据中心的持续增长和利润中定价的。然而，什么时候估值过于让市场承受不了呢？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f9cdd482c064248470e0c01e9b9ab90\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于市销率接近相对历史高位，市场表示预计未来三年收入将继续增长 50%。因此，这意味着市场预计未来一年左右的普遍预期将大幅上升。因此，该公司必须略高于下图所示的 2023 年和 2024 年“高”预期，才能证明估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cabb94994fe458be597ed0a3260763f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Nvidia 来说，这并非不可能，Nvidia 在过去两年中不断提高门槛，但 2024 财年（从 2023 年 2 月开始，一年多后）的收入不太可能达到 49.50B 美元如果没有 ARM (ARMH) 收购正在进行中。在这一点上，它不太可能这样做，因为所有主要国家的反对声音越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> As I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经概述的，Nvidia 的业务非常强大，并且有相当惊人的潜力将技术推向前所未有的更远，并充分利用它。对于市盈率为 30 或以上的股票，我的问题是，它能否带来与目前相同的回报？该公司必须证明其表现甚至可以超过其提高指引的记录，然后每季度超出指引超过 10 亿美元（在指引上调和随后的共识上调之间），才能达到所需的 2024 年高额数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finding A Level To Add At</b></p><p><blockquote><b>查找要添加的级别</b></blockquote></p><p> I originally shared these thoughts&nbsp;with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.</p><p><blockquote>我最初是在 11 月 24 日与我的订阅者分享这些想法的，当时该股的交易价格为每股 326 美元。该股目前的交易价格约为 300 美元，下跌了 8%，虽然这降低了风险，但该股的风险仍然高于我愿意添加到头寸中的风险。过去几周，多只股票成为抛售目标，英伟达是受到类似打击的主要目标。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, where am I comfortable to add?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我还能在哪里补充呢？</blockquote></p><p> A 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.</p><p><blockquote>20 或更低的混合远期市盈率将显着降低风险，同时仍能让 Nvidia 获得值得持续高增长的市盈率。这意味着股价为 210 美元。我预计该股不会达到那个水平，除非市场担心增长不稳定或者我们出现市场调整。如果您是绝对规避风险的成长型股票投资者，那么这就是您的目标。</blockquote></p><p> For those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们这些风险承受能力稍强的人来说，我认为 2023 财年的收入预期为 20，目前为 31.45B 美元。这给了我们248美元的目标，可以增加。此外，在共识估计的基础上加上小幅上涨，以解释稳定的节拍和加薪，得出$33.5B的收入估计（仍低于$34.40B的最高估计），相当于$264的股价，下跌12%周三的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I'll Be Patient</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我会有耐心的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着我对该股没有建设性态度——也许它将继续走高，并且未来几个月的预期将会提高，在这种情况下，我很高兴我持有该股。但事实就是如此；我持有目前的头寸，如果市场允许，我希望投机性地增加下跌。我看好该公司，但不喜欢当前估值带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> I look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.</p><p><blockquote>如果有机会，我期待着增加，但如果股票继续走高，我不会感到不安。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会等待这些价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会等待这些价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.</li>  <li>Data Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.</li>  <li>But the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.</li>  <li>I'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16229a92c1ab97cde25cb10d9bf33c38\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达的业务和技术是首屈一指的，该公司已经证明它可以创造和领导多个市场。</li><li>数据中心将在收入方面占据主导地位，也是投资者应该想要的；该部门推动毛利率。</li><li>但该股的定价正处于漫长的增长轨道上，并且不会在证明估值合理性所需的时间内实现这一目标。</li><li>我满足于持有这里，但会在264美元及以下加价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>米哈伊尔·科诺普列夫/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>很难找到一家公司能够在多个市场中主导一个领域。然而，你肯定可以找到在一个市场中主导一个领域的公司。例如，网飞（NFLX）在电影/节目的流媒体领域占据主导地位，但在体育直播或视频游戏中却没有。很难找到一家公司在计算能力等一个领域占据主导地位，同时在游戏、数据中心和专业渲染等不同市场占据主导地位。但是，英伟达（NVDA）非常符合要求。其专业计算能力领域已经变得无与伦比，通过创造新技术和用例以惊人的速度增长收入。随着其数据中心部门准备接管公司，这正在推动加速增长，并在市场上获得了丰厚的回报。但即便如此，我也无法证明以如此高的估值购买它是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with&nbsp;the record to prove it&nbsp;- but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思，我不仅是一个狂热的英伟达多头——有记录证明了这一点——而且在投资它方面也做得非常好。它已成为我投资生涯中最大的股票回报之一。而且，正如我稍后会谈到的，英伟达的主导地位不会很快减弱。但是，即便如此，建立 300 美元以上的头寸仍然存在更多风险，因为增长率必须在更长时间内保持更高的水平才能与估值相匹配。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Business Strength On Two Fronts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在两个方面拥有强大的业务实力</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达超出预期并提高指引在过去几个季度并不是什么新鲜事。不过，有趣的是，它有能力在供应紧张时期和季节性疲软的季度继续发展游戏部门。这一点在该公司第三季度游戏收入环比增长 5.2% 的能力中显而易见。不过，管理层预计这种优势将继续下去。据其称，游戏和数据中心将推动第四季度的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>We expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.</i>    Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call  The key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.</p><p><blockquote><i>我们预计数据中心和游戏将推动环比增长，足以抵消 CMP 的下降。</i>英伟达首席财务官，第三季度收益看涨期权 关键在于数据中心的增长在过去几个季度超过了游戏的增长。因此，如果数据中心在本季度（FQ4 '22）自 FQ2 '21 以来首次达到或超过游戏收入，我不会感到惊讶。这是因为数据中心的增长在过去两个季度有所回升，超过了游戏的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa9ae7f41224f726f309ec9ce84a1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，Nvidia 第 3 季度收入趋势数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.</p><p><blockquote>正如二级轴上的季度环比线所示，数据中心自 2021 年第四季度以来加速增长，而游戏增长自 2022 年第一季度以来放缓。21年第二季度的大幅增长与Mellanox的收购有关，因为我概述的增长始于21年第四季度，所以它变得独立于Mellanox，因为比较是Q/Q而不是Y/Y。在 Q3 '21 和 Q1 '22 之间名义连续增长了三个季度之后，情况尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我预计数据中心不会在2022年第四季度以24%或更多的速度环比增长，但我确实预计它的增长速度会超过游戏。根据我们从博通 (AVGO) 和 Marvell (MRVL) 等其他公司最近的收益中看到的情况，数据中心在今年年底看起来非常强劲。因此，我估计数据中心增长14%，游戏增长5%（环比）。虽然这对这两个部门来说都是一个减速，但如果整个季度的表现超出我的预期，我已经为数据中心留出了空间来弥补我在计算 it 和公司王冠游戏之间的 3500 万美元差额。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Digging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.</p><p><blockquote>进一步挖掘，注意哪个部门的环比增长与毛利率一致。更准确地说，数据中心在it和游戏之间的收入份额构成是推动毛利率趋势的因素（以（DC）/（DC+游戏）计算），如下所示。数据中心跃居第一正是投资者所希望的，因为它可以提高毛利率。Omniverse和元宇宙的故事与一个更重要的数据中心部门完美契合。这有助于英伟达在过去几年中一直在推动数据中心的增长，早在 2019 年宣布收购 Mellanox 之前，因为该公司领先于科技行业为元宇宙需求做好准备所需的曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce95b60f491febf2a5cc611f983de1a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达季度新闻稿）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是英伟达在业务方面表现出色并将继续如此的重要原因。其两个主要市场都有实力保证，而且数据中心和 PC 对 GPU 的需求不断增长、强劲。就英伟达的业务而言，它是我最喜欢的业务之一，并且具有通过其不断改进的技术创造新的用例和终端市场需求的最大潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Business Meets Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业与股票的交汇处</b></blockquote></p><p> The points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?</p><p><blockquote>我刚才讨论的要点是为什么该股的估值在过去几个月里飙升——它是在数据中心的持续增长和利润中定价的。然而，什么时候估值过于让市场承受不了呢？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f9cdd482c064248470e0c01e9b9ab90\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于市销率接近相对历史高位，市场表示预计未来三年收入将继续增长 50%。因此，这意味着市场预计未来一年左右的普遍预期将大幅上升。因此，该公司必须略高于下图所示的 2023 年和 2024 年“高”预期，才能证明估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cabb94994fe458be597ed0a3260763f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Nvidia 来说，这并非不可能，Nvidia 在过去两年中不断提高门槛，但 2024 财年（从 2023 年 2 月开始，一年多后）的收入不太可能达到 49.50B 美元如果没有 ARM (ARMH) 收购正在进行中。在这一点上，它不太可能这样做，因为所有主要国家的反对声音越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> As I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经概述的，Nvidia 的业务非常强大，并且有相当惊人的潜力将技术推向前所未有的更远，并充分利用它。对于市盈率为 30 或以上的股票，我的问题是，它能否带来与目前相同的回报？该公司必须证明其表现甚至可以超过其提高指引的记录，然后每季度超出指引超过 10 亿美元（在指引上调和随后的共识上调之间），才能达到所需的 2024 年高额数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finding A Level To Add At</b></p><p><blockquote><b>查找要添加的级别</b></blockquote></p><p> I originally shared these thoughts&nbsp;with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.</p><p><blockquote>我最初是在 11 月 24 日与我的订阅者分享这些想法的，当时该股的交易价格为每股 326 美元。该股目前的交易价格约为 300 美元，下跌了 8%，虽然这降低了风险，但该股的风险仍然高于我愿意添加到头寸中的风险。过去几周，多只股票成为抛售目标，英伟达是受到类似打击的主要目标。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, where am I comfortable to add?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我还能在哪里补充呢？</blockquote></p><p> A 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.</p><p><blockquote>20 或更低的混合远期市盈率将显着降低风险，同时仍能让 Nvidia 获得值得持续高增长的市盈率。这意味着股价为 210 美元。我预计该股不会达到那个水平，除非市场担心增长不稳定或者我们出现市场调整。如果您是绝对规避风险的成长型股票投资者，那么这就是您的目标。</blockquote></p><p> For those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们这些风险承受能力稍强的人来说，我认为 2023 财年的收入预期为 20，目前为 31.45B 美元。这给了我们248美元的目标，可以增加。此外，在共识估计的基础上加上小幅上涨，以解释稳定的节拍和加薪，得出$33.5B的收入估计（仍低于$34.40B的最高估计），相当于$264的股价，下跌12%周三的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I'll Be Patient</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我会有耐心的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着我对该股没有建设性态度——也许它将继续走高，并且未来几个月的预期将会提高，在这种情况下，我很高兴我持有该股。但事实就是如此；我持有目前的头寸，如果市场允许，我希望投机性地增加下跌。我看好该公司，但不喜欢当前估值带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> I look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.</p><p><blockquote>如果有机会，我期待着增加，但如果股票继续走高，我不会感到不安。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475654-nvidia-data-center-will-dominate-wait-these-prices\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475654-nvidia-data-center-will-dominate-wait-these-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148139257","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.\nData Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.\nBut the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.\nI'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.\n\nMikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.\nDon't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with the record to prove it - but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.\nGreat Business Strength On Two Fronts\nNvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.\n\nWe expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.\n\n\n Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call\n\nThe key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)\nAs the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.\nNow, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.\nDigging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)\nThese are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.\nWhere Business Meets Stock\nThe points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?\nData by YCharts\nWith the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThis isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.\nAs I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.\nFinding A Level To Add At\nI originally shared these thoughts with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.\nThat being said, where am I comfortable to add?\nA 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.\nFor those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.\nI'll Be Patient\nThis doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.\nI look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693717681,"gmtCreate":1640079476042,"gmtModify":1640079476291,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693717681","repostId":"1194627020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194627020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640077282,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1194627020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194627020","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.\nThe company reported fiscal second-quarter earni","content":"<p>Nike&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ffc773c42f2aacf793dd422e5bf4f7\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布第二财季收益为 13.4 亿美元，即每股 83 美分，高于去年同期的每股 78 美分。这超出了分析师预期的每股收益 63 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.</p><p><blockquote>收入从去年同期的 112.4 亿美元增至 113.6 亿美元，而预期为 112.5 亿美元。耐克（股票代码：NKE）最大的市场北美的收入增长了 12%，是所有地区中增幅最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Greater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在周一晚间的财报看涨期权上表示，消费者需求的增加，尤其是对在线商品的需求，有助于提振业绩。耐克数字本季度增长了 11%，目前占其全球总收入的 25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 17:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nike&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ffc773c42f2aacf793dd422e5bf4f7\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布第二财季收益为 13.4 亿美元，即每股 83 美分，高于去年同期的每股 78 美分。这超出了分析师预期的每股收益 63 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.</p><p><blockquote>收入从去年同期的 112.4 亿美元增至 113.6 亿美元，而预期为 112.5 亿美元。耐克（股票代码：NKE）最大的市场北美的收入增长了 12%，是所有地区中增幅最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Greater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在周一晚间的财报看涨期权上表示，消费者需求的增加，尤其是对在线商品的需求，有助于提振业绩。耐克数字本季度增长了 11%，目前占其全球总收入的 25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194627020","content_text":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.\nThe company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.\nRevenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.\nGreater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693717108,"gmtCreate":1640079464900,"gmtModify":1640079465106,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693717108","repostId":"1149530831","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149530831","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640078220,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149530831?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 17:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>随着欧盟委员会批准了 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149530831","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Ma","content":"<p>Gilead&nbsp;gained&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d011c5296c3de91e509be97faad6190\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gilead Sciences, Inc. today announced that the European Commission (EC) has approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury® (remdesivir) to include adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at an increased risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. This decision follows the positive recommendation of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), to expand the indication for Veklury on December 16.</p><p><blockquote>随着欧盟委员会批准了 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。吉利德科学公司今天宣布，欧盟委员会 (EC) 已批准 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更®（瑞德西韦）包括不需要补充氧气且进展为严重新冠肺炎风险增加的成年人。这一决定是在欧洲药品管理局（EMA）的科学委员会人用药品委员会（CHMP）于12月16日提出扩大Veklury适应症的积极建议之后做出的。</blockquote></p><p> \"As the rates of COVID-19 climb again and new variants like Omicron emerge, we need effective tools like Veklury to treat various stages of the disease,\" said Roger Paredes, MD, PhD, Chief Infectious Diseases Department, and IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona, Spain. \"We can now use Veklury to help prevent high-risk patients from progressing to more severe disease, even when they do not require oxygen, as well as continue to utilize Veklury as a key tool in the treatment of severe disease. This latest approval will also help to relieve some of the pressure on healthcare systems that are already under significant strain from the burden of COVID-19.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着 COVID-19 的发病率再次攀升以及奥密克戎等新变种的出现，我们需要像 Veklury 这样的有效工具来治疗该疾病的各个阶段，”IrsiCaixa 艾滋病研究所 Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona，西班牙。“我们现在可以使用 Veklury 来帮助防止高危患者发展为更严重的疾病，即使他们不需要氧气，并继续使用 Veklury 作为治疗严重疾病的关键工具。这项最新的批准也将有助于缓解医疗保健系统的一些压力，这些系统已经因 COVID-19 的负担而承受着巨大的压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The EC’s decision is supported by results from a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a three-day course of Veklury for intravenous (IV) use for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients at high risk for disease progression. In an analysis of 562 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive Veklury or placebo, Veklury demonstrated a statistically significant 87% reduction in risk for the composite primary endpoint of COVID-19 related hospitalization or all-cause death by Day 28 (0.7% [2/279]) compared with placebo (5.3% [15/283]) p=0.008. In the study, no deaths were observed in either arm by Day 28. The safety profile was similar between Veklury and placebo across the variety of outpatient settings in this trial, with the most common treatment emergent adverse events (≥5%) in patients taking Veklury being nausea and headache. These data have also been shared with other regulatory agencies around the world and submitted for scientific peer-reviewed publication.</p><p><blockquote>欧盟委员会的决定得到了一项 3 期随机、双盲、安慰剂对照试验结果的支持，该试验评估了在疾病进展高风险的非住院患者中静脉注射 (IV) 三天 Veklury 治疗 COVID-19 的疗效和安全性。在对以1:1比例随机分配接受Veklury或安慰剂的562名参与者的分析中，Veklury显示，与安慰剂（5.3%【15/283】）相比，第28天新冠肺炎相关住院或全因死亡的复合主要终点风险降低了87%（0.7%【2/279】），p=0.008。在研究中，到第28天，两组均未观察到死亡。在本试验中，Veklury和安慰剂在各种门诊环境中的安全性特征相似，服用Veklury的患者中最常见的治疗紧急不良事件（≥5%）是恶心和头痛。这些数据还与世界各地的其他监管机构共享，并提交科学同行评审出版物。</blockquote></p><p> This expanded indication in the EU adds to the previous Conditional Marketing Authorization of Veklury enabling the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and adolescents (aged 12 to less than 18 years and weighing at least 40 kg) with pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen (low- or high-flow oxygen or other non-invasive ventilation at start of treatment).</p><p><blockquote>欧盟的这一扩大适应症补充了之前Veklury的有条件营销授权，使其能够治疗患有肺炎的成人和青少年（12至18岁以下，体重至少40 kg）的新冠肺炎，这些肺炎需要补充氧气（低流量或高流量氧气或治疗开始时的其他非侵入性通气）。</blockquote></p><p> \"The swift action of the European Commission is a testament to the need for effective treatments that can be used earlier in the course of disease to help people with COVID-19 across Europe,\" said Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer, Gilead Sciences. \"As we learn more about how COVID-19 disease progresses, it is clear that an antiviral like Veklury can have a significant impact if used early in the course of disease. As the antiviral standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we are proud of the role Veklury continues to play on the front lines of the pandemic, and we believe Veklury will now be able to help more patients decrease their time to recovery from COVID-19 in Europe.\"</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学首席医疗官 Merdad Parsey 医学博士表示：“欧盟委员会的迅速行动证明了需要有效的治疗方法，这些治疗方法可以在疾病过程的早期使用，以帮助整个欧洲的 COVID-19 患者。”“随着我们对 COVID-19 疾病如何进展的了解越来越多，很明显，如果在疾病过程的早期使用，像 Veklury 这样的抗病毒药物可以产生重大影响。作为 COVID-19 住院患者的抗病毒护理标准，我们为 Veklury 继续在大流行前线发挥的作用感到自豪，我们相信 Veklury 现在将能够帮助欧洲更多患者缩短从 COVID-19 中康复的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>随着欧盟委员会批准了 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>随着欧盟委员会批准了 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 17:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gilead&nbsp;gained&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d011c5296c3de91e509be97faad6190\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gilead Sciences, Inc. today announced that the European Commission (EC) has approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury® (remdesivir) to include adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at an increased risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. This decision follows the positive recommendation of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), to expand the indication for Veklury on December 16.</p><p><blockquote>随着欧盟委员会批准了 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。吉利德科学公司今天宣布，欧盟委员会 (EC) 已批准 Veklury 有条件营销授权的变更®（瑞德西韦）包括不需要补充氧气且进展为严重新冠肺炎风险增加的成年人。这一决定是在欧洲药品管理局（EMA）的科学委员会人用药品委员会（CHMP）于12月16日提出扩大Veklury适应症的积极建议之后做出的。</blockquote></p><p> \"As the rates of COVID-19 climb again and new variants like Omicron emerge, we need effective tools like Veklury to treat various stages of the disease,\" said Roger Paredes, MD, PhD, Chief Infectious Diseases Department, and IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona, Spain. \"We can now use Veklury to help prevent high-risk patients from progressing to more severe disease, even when they do not require oxygen, as well as continue to utilize Veklury as a key tool in the treatment of severe disease. This latest approval will also help to relieve some of the pressure on healthcare systems that are already under significant strain from the burden of COVID-19.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着 COVID-19 的发病率再次攀升以及奥密克戎等新变种的出现，我们需要像 Veklury 这样的有效工具来治疗该疾病的各个阶段，”IrsiCaixa 艾滋病研究所 Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona，西班牙。“我们现在可以使用 Veklury 来帮助防止高危患者发展为更严重的疾病，即使他们不需要氧气，并继续使用 Veklury 作为治疗严重疾病的关键工具。这项最新的批准也将有助于缓解医疗保健系统的一些压力，这些系统已经因 COVID-19 的负担而承受着巨大的压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The EC’s decision is supported by results from a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a three-day course of Veklury for intravenous (IV) use for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients at high risk for disease progression. In an analysis of 562 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive Veklury or placebo, Veklury demonstrated a statistically significant 87% reduction in risk for the composite primary endpoint of COVID-19 related hospitalization or all-cause death by Day 28 (0.7% [2/279]) compared with placebo (5.3% [15/283]) p=0.008. In the study, no deaths were observed in either arm by Day 28. The safety profile was similar between Veklury and placebo across the variety of outpatient settings in this trial, with the most common treatment emergent adverse events (≥5%) in patients taking Veklury being nausea and headache. These data have also been shared with other regulatory agencies around the world and submitted for scientific peer-reviewed publication.</p><p><blockquote>欧盟委员会的决定得到了一项 3 期随机、双盲、安慰剂对照试验结果的支持，该试验评估了在疾病进展高风险的非住院患者中静脉注射 (IV) 三天 Veklury 治疗 COVID-19 的疗效和安全性。在对以1:1比例随机分配接受Veklury或安慰剂的562名参与者的分析中，Veklury显示，与安慰剂（5.3%【15/283】）相比，第28天新冠肺炎相关住院或全因死亡的复合主要终点风险降低了87%（0.7%【2/279】），p=0.008。在研究中，到第28天，两组均未观察到死亡。在本试验中，Veklury和安慰剂在各种门诊环境中的安全性特征相似，服用Veklury的患者中最常见的治疗紧急不良事件（≥5%）是恶心和头痛。这些数据还与世界各地的其他监管机构共享，并提交科学同行评审出版物。</blockquote></p><p> This expanded indication in the EU adds to the previous Conditional Marketing Authorization of Veklury enabling the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and adolescents (aged 12 to less than 18 years and weighing at least 40 kg) with pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen (low- or high-flow oxygen or other non-invasive ventilation at start of treatment).</p><p><blockquote>欧盟的这一扩大适应症补充了之前Veklury的有条件营销授权，使其能够治疗患有肺炎的成人和青少年（12至18岁以下，体重至少40 kg）的新冠肺炎，这些肺炎需要补充氧气（低流量或高流量氧气或治疗开始时的其他非侵入性通气）。</blockquote></p><p> \"The swift action of the European Commission is a testament to the need for effective treatments that can be used earlier in the course of disease to help people with COVID-19 across Europe,\" said Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer, Gilead Sciences. \"As we learn more about how COVID-19 disease progresses, it is clear that an antiviral like Veklury can have a significant impact if used early in the course of disease. As the antiviral standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we are proud of the role Veklury continues to play on the front lines of the pandemic, and we believe Veklury will now be able to help more patients decrease their time to recovery from COVID-19 in Europe.\"</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学首席医疗官 Merdad Parsey 医学博士表示：“欧盟委员会的迅速行动证明了需要有效的治疗方法，这些治疗方法可以在疾病过程的早期使用，以帮助整个欧洲的 COVID-19 患者。”“随着我们对 COVID-19 疾病如何进展的了解越来越多，很明显，如果在疾病过程的早期使用，像 Veklury 这样的抗病毒药物可以产生重大影响。作为 COVID-19 住院患者的抗病毒护理标准，我们为 Veklury 继续在大流行前线发挥的作用感到自豪，我们相信 Veklury 现在将能够帮助欧洲更多患者缩短从 COVID-19 中康复的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149530831","content_text":"Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.Gilead Sciences, Inc. today announced that the European Commission (EC) has approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury® (remdesivir) to include adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at an increased risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. This decision follows the positive recommendation of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), to expand the indication for Veklury on December 16.\n\"As the rates of COVID-19 climb again and new variants like Omicron emerge, we need effective tools like Veklury to treat various stages of the disease,\" said Roger Paredes, MD, PhD, Chief Infectious Diseases Department, and IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona, Spain. \"We can now use Veklury to help prevent high-risk patients from progressing to more severe disease, even when they do not require oxygen, as well as continue to utilize Veklury as a key tool in the treatment of severe disease. This latest approval will also help to relieve some of the pressure on healthcare systems that are already under significant strain from the burden of COVID-19.\"\nThe EC’s decision is supported by results from a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a three-day course of Veklury for intravenous (IV) use for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients at high risk for disease progression. In an analysis of 562 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive Veklury or placebo, Veklury demonstrated a statistically significant 87% reduction in risk for the composite primary endpoint of COVID-19 related hospitalization or all-cause death by Day 28 (0.7% [2/279]) compared with placebo (5.3% [15/283]) p=0.008. In the study, no deaths were observed in either arm by Day 28. The safety profile was similar between Veklury and placebo across the variety of outpatient settings in this trial, with the most common treatment emergent adverse events (≥5%) in patients taking Veklury being nausea and headache. These data have also been shared with other regulatory agencies around the world and submitted for scientific peer-reviewed publication.\nThis expanded indication in the EU adds to the previous Conditional Marketing Authorization of Veklury enabling the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and adolescents (aged 12 to less than 18 years and weighing at least 40 kg) with pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen (low- or high-flow oxygen or other non-invasive ventilation at start of treatment).\n\"The swift action of the European Commission is a testament to the need for effective treatments that can be used earlier in the course of disease to help people with COVID-19 across Europe,\" said Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer, Gilead Sciences. \"As we learn more about how COVID-19 disease progresses, it is clear that an antiviral like Veklury can have a significant impact if used early in the course of disease. As the antiviral standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we are proud of the role Veklury continues to play on the front lines of the pandemic, and we believe Veklury will now be able to help more patients decrease their time to recovery from COVID-19 in Europe.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GILD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693526059,"gmtCreate":1640051559033,"gmtModify":1640051559252,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693526059","repostId":"2193341971","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846263687,"gmtCreate":1636087006375,"gmtModify":1636087006487,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846263687","repostId":"1188626454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188626454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636084565,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188626454?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188626454","media":"Reuters","summary":"Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale ba","content":"<p>Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd&nbsp;said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale back expectations for sales of its hit Switch device is also hitting hardware development.</p><p><blockquote>日本任天堂有限公司周五表示，全球芯片短缺迫使该公司降低其热门Switch设备的销售预期，这也打击了硬件开发。</blockquote></p><p> \"The semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development,\" Nintendo executive Ko Shiota, who heads the development team, told an analyst briefing.</p><p><blockquote>“半导体形势对硬件开发产生了一些影响，”开发团队负责人、任天堂高管盐田幸子在分析师简报会上表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are looking at substituting components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们正在考虑更换组件并调整设计，以尝试减少影响，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd&nbsp;said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale back expectations for sales of its hit Switch device is also hitting hardware development.</p><p><blockquote>日本任天堂有限公司周五表示，全球芯片短缺迫使该公司降低其热门Switch设备的销售预期，这也打击了硬件开发。</blockquote></p><p> \"The semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development,\" Nintendo executive Ko Shiota, who heads the development team, told an analyst briefing.</p><p><blockquote>“半导体形势对硬件开发产生了一些影响，”开发团队负责人、任天堂高管盐田幸子在分析师简报会上表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are looking at substituting components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们正在考虑更换组件并调整设计，以尝试减少影响，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/technology/nintendo-says-chip-shortage-hitting-hardware-development-2021-11-05/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTDOY":"任天堂"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/technology/nintendo-says-chip-shortage-hitting-hardware-development-2021-11-05/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188626454","content_text":"Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale back expectations for sales of its hit Switch device is also hitting hardware development.\n\"The semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development,\" Nintendo executive Ko Shiota, who heads the development team, told an analyst briefing.\n\"We are looking at substituting components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact,\" he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NTDOY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850378681,"gmtCreate":1634561236247,"gmtModify":1634561337967,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850378681","repostId":"1189411842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189411842","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634557980,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189411842?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189411842","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week sinc","content":"<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10 月 18 日）周一上午，股指期货下跌，在标准普尔 500 指数创下 7 月以来最好的一周后回吐了部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了上周更多公司将效仿大银行并公布强劲季度盈利结果的希望。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 114 点，跌幅 0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13 点，跌幅 0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆E-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市抹去了早些时候的跌幅，涨幅高达 4.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>腾讯控股微信通讯应用上的数亿篇文章可以通过百度等搜索引擎访问，争论规则。</li><li>比特币股价飙升 5.3%，略低于六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">暴动区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较 3 月 8 日低点上涨 50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">迪纳瓦克斯</a>生物制药公司宣布 Valneva 报告灭活、佐剂 Covid-19 候选疫苗 VLA2001 的试验达到其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国交易前几个小时上涨了 10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">华特·迪士尼</a>巴克莱银行（Barclays）将评级下调至同等权重后，该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的 “艰巨 ”任务，导致盘前交易下跌。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌 2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师 Rod Hall 将对 NetApp Inc. 的卖出评级从中性下调。</li></ul><b>在外汇中，</b>在英国央行行长贝利表示央行 “必须对通胀采取行动”后，彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有 10 国集团同行交易员撤回了加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行 12 月份加息 36 个基点，并预计下个月将收紧 15 个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的 0.1% 升至 8 月份的 1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元后艰难复苏；随着全球央行收紧政策的预期加剧，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日利率差的背离导致欧元波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率上，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率尽管处于盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s 最高为 -12.5bp，为 2018 年以来最便宜； 10 年期上涨 2.8bp，约为 1.60%，而英国 10 年期上涨 3.4bp。腹部主导的跌幅使美国 5S 30 指数持平 5.4 个基点，至 2020 年 4 月以来的最低水平，约为 86.1 个基点；英国 5s30s 曲线在 5 年期国债收益率上升 14 个基点后平坦了约 8 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，达到2019年5月以来的最高水平，原因是英国央行行长安德鲁-贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，在英国央行 “将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策紧缩。根据最新举措，美国互换市场价格，美联储将在 2022 年底前两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品方面，</b>WTI 上涨 1%，略低于 83.20 美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在 85 美元以上。现货黄金下跌至 1,762 美元/盎司附近。大多数基本金属上涨，LME 铅和锡表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-18 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10 月 18 日）周一上午，股指期货下跌，在标准普尔 500 指数创下 7 月以来最好的一周后回吐了部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了上周更多公司将效仿大银行并公布强劲季度盈利结果的希望。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 114 点，跌幅 0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13 点，跌幅 0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆E-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市抹去了早些时候的跌幅，涨幅高达 4.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>腾讯控股微信通讯应用上的数亿篇文章可以通过百度等搜索引擎访问，争论规则。</li><li>比特币股价飙升 5.3%，略低于六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">暴动区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较 3 月 8 日低点上涨 50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">迪纳瓦克斯</a>生物制药公司宣布 Valneva 报告灭活、佐剂 Covid-19 候选疫苗 VLA2001 的试验达到其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国交易前几个小时上涨了 10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">华特·迪士尼</a>巴克莱银行（Barclays）将评级下调至同等权重后，该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的 “艰巨 ”任务，导致盘前交易下跌。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌 2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师 Rod Hall 将对 NetApp Inc. 的卖出评级从中性下调。</li></ul><b>在外汇中，</b>在英国央行行长贝利表示央行 “必须对通胀采取行动”后，彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有 10 国集团同行交易员撤回了加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行 12 月份加息 36 个基点，并预计下个月将收紧 15 个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的 0.1% 升至 8 月份的 1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元后艰难复苏；随着全球央行收紧政策的预期加剧，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日利率差的背离导致欧元波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率上，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率尽管处于盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s 最高为 -12.5bp，为 2018 年以来最便宜； 10 年期上涨 2.8bp，约为 1.60%，而英国 10 年期上涨 3.4bp。腹部主导的跌幅使美国 5S 30 指数持平 5.4 个基点，至 2020 年 4 月以来的最低水平，约为 86.1 个基点；英国 5s30s 曲线在 5 年期国债收益率上升 14 个基点后平坦了约 8 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，达到2019年5月以来的最高水平，原因是英国央行行长安德鲁-贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，在英国央行 “将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策紧缩。根据最新举措，美国互换市场价格，美联储将在 2022 年底前两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品方面，</b>WTI 上涨 1%，略低于 83.20 美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在 85 美元以上。现货黄金下跌至 1,762 美元/盎司附近。大多数基本金属上涨，LME 铅和锡表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189411842","content_text":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.\nAt 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n\nBaidu shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as China debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.\nCrypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. Riot Blockchain, Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings Inc and Coinbase Global, Inc. are all up.\nTesla Motors shares rise 0.2% in premarket trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.\nDynavax shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints\nWalt Disney drops in premarket trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.\nNetApp slips 2.2% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.\n\nIn FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.\nIn rates, treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.\nGilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.\nIn commodities, WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.\nLooking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. 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14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149738417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li>  <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li>  <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> <i>This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来的盈利预测存在越来越多的不确定性。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</li></ul><i>这个故事最初是在10月2日为南非市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发表的。截至10月6日已更新。</i></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.</p><p><blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，这一下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境的中心是全球增长放缓，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的 7% 的预测相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度经济增长率仅为1.3%。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>正如多次强调的那样，有明显迹象表明国内生产总值增长正在放缓。现在人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞不前。这些普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测的不确定性增加似乎与 VIX 指数的飙升和标普500的下跌高度相关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Downward Revisions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>向下修订</b></blockquote></p><p> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>本周，未来 12 个月 (NTM) 的普遍盈利预期从 212.92 美元降至 212.75 美元。截至 10 月 6 日，这些估计值目前为 211.97 美元，略有下降，但这是自 2020 年 10 月以来估计值首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周，标普500下调盈利的公司数量增至 209 家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至 225 只，使差价（价差）仅为 16 只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正利差的下降与2018年初的恶化相似。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表 2：盈利下调幅度迅速上升，而盈利上调幅度则在下降。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.</p><p><blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样。展望未来 18 个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情爆发后的盈利标准差比新冠疫情爆发前高得多。正如 VIX 指数所指出的那样，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Uncertainty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定性增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.</p><p><blockquote>从 2010 年开始，标准差下降与 VIX 指数下降有关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表 3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与 VIX 指数高度相关</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于 2018 年，VIX 和盈利不确定性在 2018 年 1 月双双飙升，但更重要的是，在 2018 年 5 月出现分歧，VIX 下降并保持低位，而盈利不确定性则上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月盈利不确定性上升，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX 现在开始在 10 月份再次走高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表 4：随着 VIX 指数下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在 2018 年，VIX 最终赶上了。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiple Contraction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多次收缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.</p><p><blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率短暂跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率（NTM）一直在稳步下降，但始终设法在20.5处找到支撑。本周，它跌破了该水平，并以该水平结束了本周。这可能是市场的一个转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这一切确实开始变得有意义了，为什么我们开始看到标普500指数的波动性上升。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能不会对股市有利。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自 2020 年春季以来的第一次真正考验。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面转变可能导致股市走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-07 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li>  <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li>  <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> <i>This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来的盈利预测存在越来越多的不确定性。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</li></ul><i>这个故事最初是在10月2日为南非市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发表的。截至10月6日已更新。</i></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.</p><p><blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，这一下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境的中心是全球增长放缓，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的 7% 的预测相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度经济增长率仅为1.3%。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>正如多次强调的那样，有明显迹象表明国内生产总值增长正在放缓。现在人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞不前。这些普遍的盈利预期现已下调，更令人担忧的是，目前盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测的不确定性增加似乎与 VIX 指数的飙升和标普500的下跌高度相关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Downward Revisions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>向下修订</b></blockquote></p><p> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>本周，未来 12 个月 (NTM) 的普遍盈利预期从 212.92 美元降至 212.75 美元。截至 10 月 6 日，这些估计值目前为 211.97 美元，略有下降，但这是自 2020 年 10 月以来估计值首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周，标普500下调盈利的公司数量增至 209 家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至 225 只，使差价（价差）仅为 16 只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正利差的下降与2018年初的恶化相似。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表 2：盈利下调幅度迅速上升，而盈利上调幅度则在下降。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.</p><p><blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样。展望未来 18 个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情爆发后的盈利标准差比新冠疫情爆发前高得多。正如 VIX 指数所指出的那样，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Uncertainty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定性增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.</p><p><blockquote>从 2010 年开始，标准差下降与 VIX 指数下降有关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表 3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与 VIX 指数高度相关</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于 2018 年，VIX 和盈利不确定性在 2018 年 1 月双双飙升，但更重要的是，在 2018 年 5 月出现分歧，VIX 下降并保持低位，而盈利不确定性则上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月盈利不确定性上升，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX 现在开始在 10 月份再次走高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表 4：随着 VIX 指数下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在 2018 年，VIX 最终赶上了。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiple Contraction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多次收缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.</p><p><blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率短暂跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率（NTM）一直在稳步下降，但始终设法在20.5处找到支撑。本周，它跌破了该水平，并以该水平结束了本周。这可能是市场的一个转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是一个重要的支撑位。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这一切确实开始变得有意义了，为什么我们开始看到标普500指数的波动性上升。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能不会对股市有利。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自 2020 年春季以来的第一次真正考验。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149738417","content_text":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nThere is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.\nThe PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nThis story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.\nThe S&P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.\nExhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.\n\nAs highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nWorse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&P 500 drawdowns.\nDownward Revisions\nConsensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.\nExhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.\n\nAlso, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.\nIncreasing Uncertainty\nStarting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.\nExhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index\n\nThis current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.\nExhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.\n\nMultiple Contraction\nAdditionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.\nExhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nIt really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829666746,"gmtCreate":1633500589610,"gmtModify":1633500768171,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829666746","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820418686,"gmtCreate":1633414446009,"gmtModify":1633414539780,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820418686","repostId":"2173617992","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2173617992","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633390072,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2173617992?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 07:27","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Oil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价跃升至81美元以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2173617992","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it wou","content":"<p><div> BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure ...</p><p><blockquote><div>班加罗尔（路透社）-油价周一（10月4日）跃升至三年高点，此前石油输出国组织+确认，尽管面临压力，但随着石油产品需求反弹，它将坚持目前的产量政策……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价跃升至81美元以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价跃升至81美元以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 07:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure ...</p><p><blockquote><div>班加罗尔（路透社）-油价周一（10月4日）跃升至三年高点，此前石油输出国组织+确认，尽管面临压力，但随着石油产品需求反弹，它将坚持目前的产量政策……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2173617992","content_text":"BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure from some countries for a bigger boost to production.\nThe producer club's decision to keep increasing oil output gradually sent prices sharply higher, adding to inflationary pressures that consuming nations fear will derail an economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\nOpec+ agreed in July to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April next year to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts.\nBrent crude settled up US$1.98, or 2.5 per cent, to US$81.26 a barrel. It rose 1.5 per cent last week for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, and was back up to highs last seen in 2018.\nUS oil settled up US$1.74, or 2.3 per cent, to US$77.62 a barrel after gaining for the past six weeks, and was at its highest since 2014.\n\"Given the demand picture and the outcome of the Opec meeting, the overall sentiment around crude is bullish,\" said Mr John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.\nDemand for coal and natural gas has exceeded pre-Covid-19 highs with oil closely trailing, according to energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency. Three-quarters of global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, with less than a fifth by non-nuclear renewables.\nOpec+, which groups the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies including Russia, has faced pressure from some countries to add back more barrels to the market as demand has recovered faster than expected in some parts of the world.\nFour Opec+ sources told Reuters recently that producers were considering boosting output by more than had already been agreed.\nThe oil price rally has also been fuelled by an even bigger increase in gas prices, which have spiked by 300 per cent, prompting switching to fuel oil and other crude products to generate electricity and for other industrial needs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820524217,"gmtCreate":1633405489594,"gmtModify":1633405489974,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820524217","repostId":"2172968917","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820987931,"gmtCreate":1633341814036,"gmtModify":1633342030501,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820987931","repostId":"1145326625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145326625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633340927,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145326625?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 17:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145326625","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at po","content":"<p>New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN）购物者需求激增，加上集装箱短缺和港口瓶颈，已经引发了从汽车到鞋子等产品的供应紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了一个加剧压力的催化剂：越南工厂因第二波冠状病毒爆发而关闭。这导致从 PacSun 到 Nike 等品牌警告称这将对其供应产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9 月下旬，耐克 (NKE) 因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克大约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越南政府实施与大流行相关的限制，包括从 7 月到 9 月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，它遭受了 10 周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官马修·弗兰德 (Matthew Friend) 在最近的财报看涨期权中表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计将从 10 月份开始分阶段重新开放），达到满负荷生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克高管在看涨期权上表示，耐克在越南的一半服装厂目前已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour (UA) 首席执行官 Patrik Frisk 在 8 月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注当地工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“不断发展的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach 和 Michael Kors 曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋类供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致新感染在该国工业区迅速传播。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，从运动鞋、凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG 分析师卡米洛·里昂 (Camilo Lyon) 在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌最有可能出现严重的供应链中断，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国强大的制造业替代品。”</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南有大量制造业务的品牌包括 Ugg 制造商 Deckers Outdoor (DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 和 Capri Holdings（拥有 Michael Kors 品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂在封锁后也可能难以让工人重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计会对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun 总裁 Brieane Olson 在 8 月份接受 CNNBusiness 采访时表示，其约 10% 的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延误，该零售商今年的返校库存已经被推迟两到四周。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季节的新产品也可能面临四周的延迟，这使得及时将牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有一个额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将减少折扣，“因为没有必要”，她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 17:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN）购物者需求激增，加上集装箱短缺和港口瓶颈，已经引发了从汽车到鞋子等产品的供应紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了一个加剧压力的催化剂：越南工厂因第二波冠状病毒爆发而关闭。这导致从 PacSun 到 Nike 等品牌警告称这将对其供应产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9 月下旬，耐克 (NKE) 因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克大约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越南政府实施与大流行相关的限制，包括从 7 月到 9 月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，它遭受了 10 周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官马修·弗兰德 (Matthew Friend) 在最近的财报看涨期权中表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计将从 10 月份开始分阶段重新开放），达到满负荷生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克高管在看涨期权上表示，耐克在越南的一半服装厂目前已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour (UA) 首席执行官 Patrik Frisk 在 8 月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注当地工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“不断发展的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach 和 Michael Kors 曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋类供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致新感染在该国工业区迅速传播。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，从运动鞋、凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG 分析师卡米洛·里昂 (Camilo Lyon) 在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌最有可能出现严重的供应链中断，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国强大的制造业替代品。”</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南有大量制造业务的品牌包括 Ugg 制造商 Deckers Outdoor (DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 和 Capri Holdings（拥有 Michael Kors 品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂在封锁后也可能难以让工人重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计会对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun 总裁 Brieane Olson 在 8 月份接受 CNNBusiness 采访时表示，其约 10% 的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延误，该零售商今年的返校库存已经被推迟两到四周。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季节的新产品也可能面临四周的延迟，这使得及时将牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有一个额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将减少折扣，“因为没有必要”，她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","CPRI":"Capri Holdings Ltd","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145326625","content_text":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.\nIn particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.\nIn late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.\nNike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.\nBut as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.\nEven when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.\nVietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"\nUgg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure\nVietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.\n\"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.\nIn July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.\nThe government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.\nAll of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.\nIn a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"\nOther brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).\nLyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.\n\"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.\nTeen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.\nBrieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.\nOlson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.\nNow, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.\nAnd there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPRI":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"DECK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867149455,"gmtCreate":1633230209399,"gmtModify":1633230384496,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867149455","repostId":"2172961873","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168793967,"gmtCreate":1623982925459,"gmtModify":1634024743317,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":40,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168793967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880974677,"gmtCreate":1631015865499,"gmtModify":1631891709766,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880974677","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850378681,"gmtCreate":1634561236247,"gmtModify":1634561337967,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850378681","repostId":"1189411842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189411842","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634557980,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189411842?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189411842","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week sinc","content":"<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10 月 18 日）周一上午，股指期货下跌，在标准普尔 500 指数创下 7 月以来最好的一周后回吐了部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了上周更多公司将效仿大银行并公布强劲季度盈利结果的希望。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 114 点，跌幅 0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13 点，跌幅 0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆E-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市抹去了早些时候的跌幅，涨幅高达 4.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>腾讯控股微信通讯应用上的数亿篇文章可以通过百度等搜索引擎访问，争论规则。</li><li>比特币股价飙升 5.3%，略低于六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">暴动区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较 3 月 8 日低点上涨 50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">迪纳瓦克斯</a>生物制药公司宣布 Valneva 报告灭活、佐剂 Covid-19 候选疫苗 VLA2001 的试验达到其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国交易前几个小时上涨了 10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">华特·迪士尼</a>巴克莱银行（Barclays）将评级下调至同等权重后，该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的 “艰巨 ”任务，导致盘前交易下跌。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌 2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师 Rod Hall 将对 NetApp Inc. 的卖出评级从中性下调。</li></ul><b>在外汇中，</b>在英国央行行长贝利表示央行 “必须对通胀采取行动”后，彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有 10 国集团同行交易员撤回了加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行 12 月份加息 36 个基点，并预计下个月将收紧 15 个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的 0.1% 升至 8 月份的 1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元后艰难复苏；随着全球央行收紧政策的预期加剧，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日利率差的背离导致欧元波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率上，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率尽管处于盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s 最高为 -12.5bp，为 2018 年以来最便宜； 10 年期上涨 2.8bp，约为 1.60%，而英国 10 年期上涨 3.4bp。腹部主导的跌幅使美国 5S 30 指数持平 5.4 个基点，至 2020 年 4 月以来的最低水平，约为 86.1 个基点；英国 5s30s 曲线在 5 年期国债收益率上升 14 个基点后平坦了约 8 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，达到2019年5月以来的最高水平，原因是英国央行行长安德鲁-贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，在英国央行 “将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策紧缩。根据最新举措，美国互换市场价格，美联储将在 2022 年底前两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品方面，</b>WTI 上涨 1%，略低于 83.20 美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在 85 美元以上。现货黄金下跌至 1,762 美元/盎司附近。大多数基本金属上涨，LME 铅和锡表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-18 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10 月 18 日）周一上午，股指期货下跌，在标准普尔 500 指数创下 7 月以来最好的一周后回吐了部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了上周更多公司将效仿大银行并公布强劲季度盈利结果的希望。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 114 点，跌幅 0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13 点，跌幅 0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆E-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市抹去了早些时候的跌幅，涨幅高达 4.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>腾讯控股微信通讯应用上的数亿篇文章可以通过百度等搜索引擎访问，争论规则。</li><li>比特币股价飙升 5.3%，略低于六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">暴动区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较 3 月 8 日低点上涨 50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">迪纳瓦克斯</a>生物制药公司宣布 Valneva 报告灭活、佐剂 Covid-19 候选疫苗 VLA2001 的试验达到其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国交易前几个小时上涨了 10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">华特·迪士尼</a>巴克莱银行（Barclays）将评级下调至同等权重后，该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的 “艰巨 ”任务，导致盘前交易下跌。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌 2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师 Rod Hall 将对 NetApp Inc. 的卖出评级从中性下调。</li></ul><b>在外汇中，</b>在英国央行行长贝利表示央行 “必须对通胀采取行动”后，彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有 10 国集团同行交易员撤回了加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行 12 月份加息 36 个基点，并预计下个月将收紧 15 个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的 0.1% 升至 8 月份的 1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元后艰难复苏；随着全球央行收紧政策的预期加剧，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日利率差的背离导致欧元波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率上，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率尽管处于盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s 最高为 -12.5bp，为 2018 年以来最便宜； 10 年期上涨 2.8bp，约为 1.60%，而英国 10 年期上涨 3.4bp。腹部主导的跌幅使美国 5S 30 指数持平 5.4 个基点，至 2020 年 4 月以来的最低水平，约为 86.1 个基点；英国 5s30s 曲线在 5 年期国债收益率上升 14 个基点后平坦了约 8 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，达到2019年5月以来的最高水平，原因是英国央行行长安德鲁-贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，在英国央行 “将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策紧缩。根据最新举措，美国互换市场价格，美联储将在 2022 年底前两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品方面，</b>WTI 上涨 1%，略低于 83.20 美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在 85 美元以上。现货黄金下跌至 1,762 美元/盎司附近。大多数基本金属上涨，LME 铅和锡表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189411842","content_text":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.\nAt 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n\nBaidu shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as China debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.\nCrypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. Riot Blockchain, Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings Inc and Coinbase Global, Inc. are all up.\nTesla Motors shares rise 0.2% in premarket trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.\nDynavax shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints\nWalt Disney drops in premarket trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.\nNetApp slips 2.2% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.\n\nIn FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.\nIn rates, treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.\nGilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.\nIn commodities, WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.\nLooking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165363199,"gmtCreate":1624096734311,"gmtModify":1634010724659,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165363199","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":827849368,"gmtCreate":1634448616106,"gmtModify":1634448674096,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827849368","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820987931,"gmtCreate":1633341814036,"gmtModify":1633342030501,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820987931","repostId":"1145326625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145326625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633340927,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145326625?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 17:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145326625","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at po","content":"<p>New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN）购物者需求激增，加上集装箱短缺和港口瓶颈，已经引发了从汽车到鞋子等产品的供应紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了一个加剧压力的催化剂：越南工厂因第二波冠状病毒爆发而关闭。这导致从 PacSun 到 Nike 等品牌警告称这将对其供应产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9 月下旬，耐克 (NKE) 因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克大约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越南政府实施与大流行相关的限制，包括从 7 月到 9 月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，它遭受了 10 周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官马修·弗兰德 (Matthew Friend) 在最近的财报看涨期权中表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计将从 10 月份开始分阶段重新开放），达到满负荷生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克高管在看涨期权上表示，耐克在越南的一半服装厂目前已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour (UA) 首席执行官 Patrik Frisk 在 8 月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注当地工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“不断发展的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach 和 Michael Kors 曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋类供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致新感染在该国工业区迅速传播。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，从运动鞋、凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG 分析师卡米洛·里昂 (Camilo Lyon) 在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌最有可能出现严重的供应链中断，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国强大的制造业替代品。”</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南有大量制造业务的品牌包括 Ugg 制造商 Deckers Outdoor (DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 和 Capri Holdings（拥有 Michael Kors 品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂在封锁后也可能难以让工人重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计会对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun 总裁 Brieane Olson 在 8 月份接受 CNNBusiness 采访时表示，其约 10% 的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延误，该零售商今年的返校库存已经被推迟两到四周。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季节的新产品也可能面临四周的延迟，这使得及时将牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有一个额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将减少折扣，“因为没有必要”，她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了一个加剧压力的催化剂：越南工厂因第二波冠状病毒爆发而关闭。这导致从 PacSun 到 Nike 等品牌警告称这将对其供应产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9 月下旬，耐克 (NKE) 因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克大约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越南政府实施与大流行相关的限制，包括从 7 月到 9 月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，它遭受了 10 周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官马修·弗兰德 (Matthew Friend) 在最近的财报看涨期权中表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计将从 10 月份开始分阶段重新开放），达到满负荷生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克高管在看涨期权上表示，耐克在越南的一半服装厂目前已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour (UA) 首席执行官 Patrik Frisk 在 8 月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注当地工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“不断发展的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach 和 Michael Kors 曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋类供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致新感染在该国工业区迅速传播。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，从运动鞋、凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG 分析师卡米洛·里昂 (Camilo Lyon) 在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌最有可能出现严重的供应链中断，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国强大的制造业替代品。”</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南有大量制造业务的品牌包括 Ugg 制造商 Deckers Outdoor (DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 和 Capri Holdings（拥有 Michael Kors 品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂在封锁后也可能难以让工人重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计会对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun 总裁 Brieane Olson 在 8 月份接受 CNNBusiness 采访时表示，其约 10% 的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延误，该零售商今年的返校库存已经被推迟两到四周。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季节的新产品也可能面临四周的延迟，这使得及时将牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有一个额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将减少折扣，“因为没有必要”，她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","CPRI":"Capri Holdings Ltd","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145326625","content_text":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.\nIn particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.\nIn late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.\nNike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.\nBut as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.\nEven when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.\nVietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"\nUgg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure\nVietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.\n\"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.\nIn July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.\nThe government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.\nAll of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.\nIn a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"\nOther brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).\nLyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.\n\"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.\nTeen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.\nBrieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.\nOlson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.\nNow, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.\nAnd there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPRI":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"DECK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883517723,"gmtCreate":1631254550662,"gmtModify":1631889774085,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883517723","repostId":"2166345008","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814587566,"gmtCreate":1630845669255,"gmtModify":1632905598172,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814587566","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯-霍华德（Vance Howard）的 HCM 战术增长基金（Tactical Growwth Fund）会让你在谨慎的情况下进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经取得了成效。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市上收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>这是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯-霍华德认为他找到了答案。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>佐治亚州罗斯威尔的霍华德资本管理公司的霍华德和他的一小群计算机程序员。，有一个量化系统，发布巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的 HCM 战术增长基金 HCMGX,+0.35% 在过去五年中以年化计算比其罗素 1000 基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出 8.5-10.4 个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅仅是因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场根本不容易。他的 HCM 股息板块 PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) 和 HCM 收入 PlusHCMLX,+0.30% 基金表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详细介绍。（其中：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化者从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多细节，你会看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于 “马感 ”的好建议--考虑到他对市场有着极具感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业牧场主经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12 只交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 4 只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化注定了我们会失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以在可能很长一段时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场上，出于恐惧和贪婪的情绪行事总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也相信与人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，那么如果你单独行动，就更有可能被捕食者叼走。这里的问题是成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——把我们愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人们会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做好，你必须抵消这些趋势。“霍华德说：”个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是情绪化。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：建立一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>要驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“霍华德说：”不要事后猜测。“这让你不会让大流行病或阿富汗把你吓出市场”。他评级了他的系统HCM-BuyLine。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——在市场上通常效果很好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔 500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌 6.5%，他就再卖出 35%。他很少使用100%的现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果买盘是积极的，无论如何我们都会长期持有。“我们让数学来决定，就能把所有的情绪都排除在外”。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多内容见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统也必须告诉你什么时候回来。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这就是大多数人搞砸的地方。“他们退出了市场，却不知道什么时候才能重新进来”。当他的自定义指数连续六个交易日交易高于其移动平均线时，HCM-BuyLine 会发出买入信号，然后继续交易高于这六天的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个能准确预测评级市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在 85% 的时间里远离下跌市场，在 85% 的好时机里则保持下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果我们能坚持不懈地做到这一点，我们就能获得更高的回报，生活压力也会更小。“在糟糕的录音带中全神贯注并不好玩”。</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定会让他离开。他经常买入这些回调。快速回归是有意义的，因为底部的复苏往往会很快发生。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德说：”HCM-BuyLine 消除了整个过程中的所有情绪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要与磁带对抗</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂-茨威格（Marty Zweig）经典著作《华尔街的胜利》（Winning on Wall Street）的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德同意道：”你必须站在市场的正确一边。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中进行多头交易，那将是痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要因为市场创下新高--比如现在--就变得谨慎。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量可能会持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第4课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德并不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥的工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说是令人耳目一新的，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你不必交易疯狂的东西。“你可以交易普通的 ETF，击败所有人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做多。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine 非常积极。我们百分之百同意，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。这变得非常令人兴奋。我们认为市场不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有的现金都在观望。“如果科维德有任何缓解，我们可能会看到一场大反弹。我们最终可能会迎来一个伟大的秋季[赛季]。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德还使用动量指标来选择股票和 ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几种。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过 iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04% 和 ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12% ETF 进行交易。他越来越看好生物技术，他通过 iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB 投资生物技术，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过 iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC 交易的非必需消费品， -0.30%， 以及通过 US Global JetsJETS 交易的航空公司， -1.17%.他还喜欢通过 Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%、iShares US TechnologyYYW,+0.50% 和 iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75% 进行科技投资。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他通过 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07% 看好小盘股。以及通过 SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities CWB,+0.64% 和 iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37% 看好可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个股，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT（-0.00%）和苹果APL（+0.42%），以及亚马逊.comAMZN（+0.43%）和特斯拉TSLA（+0.16%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>还可以考虑霍华德的两只 ETF： HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%，HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌 1%-3% 时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的 HCM 战术增长基金自 2015 年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，表现在 1.5% 至 8.8% 之间。随后，该基金强势回归，实现了上述非常积极的五年业绩。投资他的系统可能需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，包括沃伦·巴菲特在内的每个经理都可能经历一段时间的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们正处于胜算之中。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能有一两手烂牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年为140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景里得到了很大的削减。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能需要在税收保护账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯-霍华德（Vance Howard）的 HCM 战术增长基金（Tactical Growwth Fund）会让你在谨慎的情况下进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经取得了成效。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市上收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>这是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯-霍华德认为他找到了答案。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>佐治亚州罗斯威尔的霍华德资本管理公司的霍华德和他的一小群计算机程序员。，有一个量化系统，发布巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的 HCM 战术增长基金 HCMGX,+0.35% 在过去五年中以年化计算比其罗素 1000 基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出 8.5-10.4 个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅仅是因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场根本不容易。他的 HCM 股息板块 PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) 和 HCM 收入 PlusHCMLX,+0.30% 基金表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详细介绍。（其中：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化者从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多细节，你会看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于 “马感 ”的好建议--考虑到他对市场有着极具感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业牧场主经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12 只交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 4 只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化注定了我们会失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以在可能很长一段时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场上，出于恐惧和贪婪的情绪行事总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也相信与人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，那么如果你单独行动，就更有可能被捕食者叼走。这里的问题是成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——把我们愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人们会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做好，你必须抵消这些趋势。“霍华德说：”个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是情绪化。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：建立一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>要驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“霍华德说：”不要事后猜测。“这让你不会让大流行病或阿富汗把你吓出市场”。他评级了他的系统HCM-BuyLine。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——在市场上通常效果很好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔 500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌 6.5%，他就再卖出 35%。他很少使用100%的现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果买盘是积极的，无论如何我们都会长期持有。“我们让数学来决定，就能把所有的情绪都排除在外”。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多内容见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统也必须告诉你什么时候回来。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这就是大多数人搞砸的地方。“他们退出了市场，却不知道什么时候才能重新进来”。当他的自定义指数连续六个交易日交易高于其移动平均线时，HCM-BuyLine 会发出买入信号，然后继续交易高于这六天的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个能准确预测评级市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在 85% 的时间里远离下跌市场，在 85% 的好时机里则保持下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果我们能坚持不懈地做到这一点，我们就能获得更高的回报，生活压力也会更小。“在糟糕的录音带中全神贯注并不好玩”。</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定会让他离开。他经常买入这些回调。快速回归是有意义的，因为底部的复苏往往会很快发生。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德说：”HCM-BuyLine 消除了整个过程中的所有情绪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要与磁带对抗</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂-茨威格（Marty Zweig）经典著作《华尔街的胜利》（Winning on Wall Street）的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德同意道：”你必须站在市场的正确一边。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中进行多头交易，那将是痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要因为市场创下新高--比如现在--就变得谨慎。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量可能会持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第4课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德并不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥的工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说是令人耳目一新的，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你不必交易疯狂的东西。“你可以交易普通的 ETF，击败所有人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做多。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine 非常积极。我们百分之百同意，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。这变得非常令人兴奋。我们认为市场不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有的现金都在观望。“如果科维德有任何缓解，我们可能会看到一场大反弹。我们最终可能会迎来一个伟大的秋季[赛季]。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德还使用动量指标来选择股票和 ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几种。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过 iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04% 和 ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12% ETF 进行交易。他越来越看好生物技术，他通过 iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB 投资生物技术，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过 iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC 交易的非必需消费品， -0.30%， 以及通过 US Global JetsJETS 交易的航空公司， -1.17%.他还喜欢通过 Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%、iShares US TechnologyYYW,+0.50% 和 iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75% 进行科技投资。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他通过 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07% 看好小盘股。以及通过 SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities CWB,+0.64% 和 iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37% 看好可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个股，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT（-0.00%）和苹果APL（+0.42%），以及亚马逊.comAMZN（+0.43%）和特斯拉TSLA（+0.16%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>还可以考虑霍华德的两只 ETF： HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%，HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌 1%-3% 时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的 HCM 战术增长基金自 2015 年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，表现在 1.5% 至 8.8% 之间。随后，该基金强势回归，实现了上述非常积极的五年业绩。投资他的系统可能需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，包括沃伦·巴菲特在内的每个经理都可能经历一段时间的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们正处于胜算之中。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能有一两手烂牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年为140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景里得到了很大的削减。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能需要在税收保护账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887025437,"gmtCreate":1631947191629,"gmtModify":1632805132018,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887025437","repostId":"1171558890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171558890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631921912,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171558890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171558890","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billio","content":"<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏天可能已经过去，但 IPO 市场正在升温，未来一周将有 14 家 IPO 筹集 53 亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费产品、支付技术等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>新鲜作品</b>(FRSH) 计划以 96 亿美元的市值筹集 8.55 亿美元。该公司的核心产品是客户支持软件，同时还提供 IT 服务管理软件和 CRM 解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出而增加，但截至2021年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长，并保留了100%以上的净美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿开发</b>（KDC）计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种不同类别的产品，其产品由其品牌合作伙伴在70多个国家销售。尽管使用发行收益来偿还债务，诺尔顿在首次公开募股后仍将受到杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST) 计划以 179 亿美元的市值筹集 6.85 亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在 2021 年上半年的 ARR 增长超过 100%，但历史上一直没有盈利，而且随着餐馆重新开业带来的利好减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>汇款全球</b>（RELY）计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly 为超过 135 个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球 1,700 多个走廊。该公司表现出增长和利润率的改善，尽管它仍然没有盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN) 计划以 37 亿美元的市值筹集 4.5 亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多个客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在首次公开募股中购买价值 1.5 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>Sovos品牌</b>（SOVO）计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International成立，提供一系列精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s在意大利面和披萨酱类别中排名第一。Sovos 盈利且增长稳健，将在 IPO 后发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT) 计划以 41 亿美元的市值筹集 3.49 亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性的客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 3 亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。该公司为超过 50% 的财富 100 强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同，尽管它在竞争激烈的市场中运营。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT) 计划以 14 亿美元筹集 2.5 亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过37万名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>在线时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA) 计划以 23 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的专注于数字的时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已成功扩张 Princess Polly，并在美国发展其品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>线索健康</b>(HLTH) 计划以 24 亿美元的市值筹集 2 亿美元。Cue 首个用于 Cue 健康监测系统的商业化诊断测试是其 COVID-19 检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个 EUA 的授权。Cue 还有五个额外的测试试剂盒处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在 2022 年下半年开始寻求 FDA 的授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK) 计划以 8.55 亿美元的市值筹集 1.38 亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo 拥有超过 21,000 台专用计算机（采矿机），每秒可生成超过 1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN) 计划以 8.92 亿美元的市值筹集 1.26 亿美元。公司的垂直整合品牌 Thorne 和 Onegevity 提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。盈利且增长强劲，索恩拥有超过 300 万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>（VBNK）计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是一家加拿大附表I特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元的资产、16亿美元的贷款、15亿美元的存款和2.02亿美元的股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化的 IPO 周 14</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-18 07:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏天可能已经过去，但 IPO 市场正在升温，未来一周将有 14 家 IPO 筹集 53 亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费产品、支付技术等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>新鲜作品</b>(FRSH) 计划以 96 亿美元的市值筹集 8.55 亿美元。该公司的核心产品是客户支持软件，同时还提供 IT 服务管理软件和 CRM 解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出而增加，但截至2021年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长，并保留了100%以上的净美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿开发</b>（KDC）计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种不同类别的产品，其产品由其品牌合作伙伴在70多个国家销售。尽管使用发行收益来偿还债务，诺尔顿在首次公开募股后仍将受到杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST) 计划以 179 亿美元的市值筹集 6.85 亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在 2021 年上半年的 ARR 增长超过 100%，但历史上一直没有盈利，而且随着餐馆重新开业带来的利好减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>汇款全球</b>（RELY）计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly 为超过 135 个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球 1,700 多个走廊。该公司表现出增长和利润率的改善，尽管它仍然没有盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN) 计划以 37 亿美元的市值筹集 4.5 亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多个客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在首次公开募股中购买价值 1.5 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>Sovos品牌</b>（SOVO）计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International成立，提供一系列精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s在意大利面和披萨酱类别中排名第一。Sovos 盈利且增长稳健，将在 IPO 后发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT) 计划以 41 亿美元的市值筹集 3.49 亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性的客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 3 亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。该公司为超过 50% 的财富 100 强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同，尽管它在竞争激烈的市场中运营。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT) 计划以 14 亿美元筹集 2.5 亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过37万名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>在线时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA) 计划以 23 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的专注于数字的时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已成功扩张 Princess Polly，并在美国发展其品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>线索健康</b>(HLTH) 计划以 24 亿美元的市值筹集 2 亿美元。Cue 首个用于 Cue 健康监测系统的商业化诊断测试是其 COVID-19 检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个 EUA 的授权。Cue 还有五个额外的测试试剂盒处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在 2022 年下半年开始寻求 FDA 的授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK) 计划以 8.55 亿美元的市值筹集 1.38 亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo 拥有超过 21,000 台专用计算机（采矿机），每秒可生成超过 1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN) 计划以 8.92 亿美元的市值筹集 1.26 亿美元。公司的垂直整合品牌 Thorne 和 Onegevity 提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。盈利且增长强劲，索恩拥有超过 300 万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>（VBNK）计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是一家加拿大附表I特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元的资产、16亿美元的贷款、15亿美元的存款和2.02亿美元的股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARBK":"Argo Blockchain Plc","FRSH":"Freshworks","BRLT":"Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.","SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc.","TOST":"Toast, Inc.","RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc.","CWAN":"Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.","AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.","HLTH":"TEMA HEALTHCARE AI ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171558890","content_text":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.\nThe largest deal of the week,Freshworks(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.\nCanadian consumer products company Knowlton Development(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.\nRestaurant payment processor Toast(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.\nGlobal money transfer firm Remitly Global(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.\nSoftware firm Clearwater Analytics(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.\nFood company Sovos Brands(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.\nCustomer engagement software provider EngageSmart(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.\nHiring solutions provider Sterling Check(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.\nJewelry retailer Brilliant Earth Group(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.\nOnline fashion platform a.k.a. Brands(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.\nCOVID-19 test maker Cue Health(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.\nLondon-listed crypto mining company Argo Blockchain(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.\nPersonalized supplements seller Thorne Healthtech(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.\nCanadian bank VersaBank(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRSH":0.9,"STER":0.9,"THRN":0.9,"ARBK":0.9,"BRLT":0.9,"KDC":0.9,"SOVO":0.9,"AKA":0.9,"TOST":0.9,"RELY":0.9,"ESMT":0.9,"CWAN":0.9,"HLTH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829666746,"gmtCreate":1633500589610,"gmtModify":1633500768171,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","idStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829666746","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}