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PerfectDay

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2021-07-08

😎//@PerfectDay: 😎😎

Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>

2021-07-06

Interesting

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2021-07-04

😎😎

Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>

2021-07-04

Buy

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2021-07-04

😎

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-04

Buy buy buy

Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Awww

Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote>

2021-06-28

🎉

Stocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote>

2021-06-26

Nice!

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2021-06-26

[微笑]

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582016610658985\">@PerfectDay</a>: 😎😎","listText":"😎//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582016610658985\">@PerfectDay</a>: 😎😎","text":"😎//@PerfectDay: 😎😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149733538","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157317545,"gmtCreate":1625565446287,"gmtModify":1631890878717,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157317545","repostId":"1145795655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155365976,"gmtCreate":1625377313095,"gmtModify":1631890878734,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎😎","listText":"😎😎","text":"😎😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155365976","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155362310,"gmtCreate":1625377242830,"gmtModify":1631890878738,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155362310","repostId":"1130764181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155366057,"gmtCreate":1625377148379,"gmtModify":1631890878756,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎","listText":"😎","text":"😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155366057","repostId":"1149622010","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155368305,"gmtCreate":1625377068507,"gmtModify":1631890878764,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155368305","repostId":"1104835932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104835932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276444,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104835932?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104835932","media":"The Street","summary":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor  . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections,","content":"<p>  <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>  Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了，因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价能力。</i>想着……台积电（TSM）。台积电将于 7 月 16 日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前，华尔街正在寻找0.93美元的每股收益，意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在分析师群体中并不那么受欢迎。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测，六位做出了年度预测，只有两位真正挺身而出，在过去六个月的任何时候都设定了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对 TSM 第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为 0.91 美元至 0.95 美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为 132 亿美元，同比销售额增长约 27%。这将是连续第二个季度销售增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称，由于数据中显示了iPhone的出货量，台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然，由于中国大陆禁止比特币采矿，客户比特大陆减少了购买量，并没有像一些人预期的那样对 TSM 的销售造成影响。对 5 纳米和 7 纳米处理器的需求抵消了该采矿业务的损失，因为该公司及时为苹果 (AAPL) 智能手机发货了芯片，并出现在 6 月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持 20% 的增长，并且 6 月份可能与 5 月份持平（这是一件好事）。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>今天（周五）凌晨，有消息称苹果和英特尔（INTC）将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户，如果一切顺利，该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称，英特尔正在规划至少两个项目，围绕新的3nm芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是目前最先进的芯片，如果你有一部iPhone 12，你就有了其中一个芯片。TSM表示，与当前的5nm产品相比，新的3nm芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%，同时还将功耗降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，英特尔本周早些时候宣布推迟蓝宝石急流数据中心处理器。虽然这在华尔街被视为先进微设备公司 (AMD) 甚至英伟达 (NVDA) 从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会，但也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们将很快达到这样的地步，即他们可以作为其他芯片设计商的全球代工厂与台积电等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的少数几个真正报道这个名字的分析师中，只有一个对这个消息做出了反应。Susquehanna 的五星级（TipRanks 评级）分析师 Mehdi Hosseini 将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”，同时将目标价从 85 美元上调至 105 美元。最近唯一一位给出目标价的分析师是 Argus Research 的 Jim Kelleher（也是五星级）。Kelleher 一周前将其命名为“买入”，目标价为 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到，在四月下旬，这些股票成功地将下降三角形（这是一个看跌模式）变成了平坦的基础模式，而从未让三角形关闭。自触底以来，TSM 收复了 21 日均线和 50 日移动平均线，并利用前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>老粉丝们都知道，我对半决赛已经有一段时间了，尽管，或者更确切地说，是因为广泛覆盖的短缺正在创造巨大的定价能力。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多了 AMD 和 Marvell Technology (MRVL)，这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是 long Micron (MU)，直到本周看起来还不错。我喜欢英伟达，这简直是史诗。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名称……Applied Materials (AMAT) 和 Brooks Automation (BRKS)，这两个名字都不错，分别是 meh。我可能有空间容纳一家大型代工厂，一旦英特尔试图涉足他们的业务，它可能会做英特尔的短期工作（我的观点）。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟，可能是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试 21 日均线或收复 122 美元水平（这是我们的支点）时，会增加第二批 1/8。我们采取该枢轴时的目标价将是 144 美元，而目前（购买这些股票后），我将选择 110 美元的恐慌点（初始入场 8% 折扣）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>  Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了，因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价能力。</i>想着……台积电（TSM）。台积电将于 7 月 16 日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前，华尔街正在寻找0.93美元的每股收益，意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在分析师群体中并不那么受欢迎。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测，六位做出了年度预测，只有两位真正挺身而出，在过去六个月的任何时候都设定了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对 TSM 第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为 0.91 美元至 0.95 美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为 132 亿美元，同比销售额增长约 27%。这将是连续第二个季度销售增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称，由于数据中显示了iPhone的出货量，台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然，由于中国大陆禁止比特币采矿，客户比特大陆减少了购买量，并没有像一些人预期的那样对 TSM 的销售造成影响。对 5 纳米和 7 纳米处理器的需求抵消了该采矿业务的损失，因为该公司及时为苹果 (AAPL) 智能手机发货了芯片，并出现在 6 月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持 20% 的增长，并且 6 月份可能与 5 月份持平（这是一件好事）。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>今天（周五）凌晨，有消息称苹果和英特尔（INTC）将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户，如果一切顺利，该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称，英特尔正在规划至少两个项目，围绕新的3nm芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是目前最先进的芯片，如果你有一部iPhone 12，你就有了其中一个芯片。TSM表示，与当前的5nm产品相比，新的3nm芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%，同时还将功耗降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，英特尔本周早些时候宣布推迟蓝宝石急流数据中心处理器。虽然这在华尔街被视为先进微设备公司 (AMD) 甚至英伟达 (NVDA) 从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会，但也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们将很快达到这样的地步，即他们可以作为其他芯片设计商的全球代工厂与台积电等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的少数几个真正报道这个名字的分析师中，只有一个对这个消息做出了反应。Susquehanna 的五星级（TipRanks 评级）分析师 Mehdi Hosseini 将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”，同时将目标价从 85 美元上调至 105 美元。最近唯一一位给出目标价的分析师是 Argus Research 的 Jim Kelleher（也是五星级）。Kelleher 一周前将其命名为“买入”，目标价为 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到，在四月下旬，这些股票成功地将下降三角形（这是一个看跌模式）变成了平坦的基础模式，而从未让三角形关闭。自触底以来，TSM 收复了 21 日均线和 50 日移动平均线，并利用前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>老粉丝们都知道，我对半决赛已经有一段时间了，尽管，或者更确切地说，是因为广泛覆盖的短缺正在创造巨大的定价能力。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多了 AMD 和 Marvell Technology (MRVL)，这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是 long Micron (MU)，直到本周看起来还不错。我喜欢英伟达，这简直是史诗。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名称……Applied Materials (AMAT) 和 Brooks Automation (BRKS)，这两个名字都不错，分别是 meh。我可能有空间容纳一家大型代工厂，一旦英特尔试图涉足他们的业务，它可能会做英特尔的短期工作（我的观点）。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟，可能是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试 21 日均线或收复 122 美元水平（这是我们的支点）时，会增加第二批 1/8。我们采取该枢轴时的目标价将是 144 美元，而目前（购买这些股票后），我将选择 110 美元的恐慌点（初始入场 8% 折扣）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","AAPL":"苹果","AMD":"美国超微公司","AMAT":"应用材料","MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104835932","content_text":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.\nThe range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.\nThis Week\nIt was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).\nEarly this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.\nJust a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.\nAs an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.\nWall Street\nOf those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.\nThe Chart\n\nReaders will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.\nThe Plan\nRegular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\nI am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.\nI am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.\nI think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"MU":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"BRKS":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150160967,"gmtCreate":1624889921259,"gmtModify":1631890878771,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Awww","listText":"Awww","text":"Awww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150160967","repostId":"1148481357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148481357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624888651,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148481357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148481357","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath & Beyond climbed be","content":"<p>Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond climbed between 5% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票再次火爆。 CCIV、Workhorse、GameStop、AMC 和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 上涨了 5% 至 7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2694f87fdac29278fbf2a583a1bf36\" tg-width=\"390\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 21:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond climbed between 5% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票再次火爆。 CCIV、Workhorse、GameStop、AMC 和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 上涨了 5% 至 7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2694f87fdac29278fbf2a583a1bf36\" tg-width=\"390\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148481357","content_text":"Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath & Beyond climbed between 5% and 7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"CCIV":0.9,"WKHS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150189262,"gmtCreate":1624889667656,"gmtModify":1631890878807,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🎉","listText":"🎉","text":"🎉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150189262","repostId":"1163614299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163614299","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624887262,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163614299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 21:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163614299","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pus","content":"<p>The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周一早盘交易混乱，但科技股的强劲开局推动纳斯达克综合指数再创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was little changed, while the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 0.4%. </p><p><blockquote>标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数变化不大，而纳斯达克指数上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b8a64385f7358f0794a3aace8bce76\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks led in early trading, with shares of Apple and Amazon rising about 1% and Salesforce adding 2%. Aerospace giant Boeing weighed on the Dow, with shares falling 2% after&nbsp;regulators told the company it is not likely to receive certification&nbsp;for its long-range aircraft until at least 2023.</p><p><blockquote>科技股早盘领涨，苹果和亚马逊股价上涨约 1%，Salesforce 上涨 2%。航空航天巨头波音公司令道琼斯指数承压，监管机构告诉该公司其远程飞机至少要到 2023 年才能获得认证，该公司股价下跌 2%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday's moves came as Treasury yields retreated across most maturities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 1.49%. Yields move inverse of prices.</p><p><blockquote>周一的走势发生之际，大多数期限的国债收益率都有所回落，基准 10 年期国债收益率跌至 1.49% 左右。收益率与价格成反比。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks finished their best week in months on Friday as investors are growing more confident the current inflation in the U.S. is not a sustained economic threat, but a temporary uptick.</p><p><blockquote>周五，随着投资者越来越相信美国当前的通胀不是持续的经济威胁，而是暂时的上涨，股市结束了几个月来最好的一周。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday at a closing record high of 4,280.70, while the Dow rose 237 points. While the Nasdaq Composite closed just lower on Friday, it added 2.35% for the week, its best since April 9 and is up 4.45% for the month of June.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周五收盘创下4,280.70点的历史新高，而道琼斯指数上涨237点。尽管纳斯达克综合指数周五收盘走低，但本周上涨 2.35%，为 4 月 9 日以来的最佳表现，6 月份上涨 4.45%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This is one of the more buoyant markets I've ever seen, and as far as I'm concerned taking money off the table is not advised right now,\" CNBC's Jim Cramer said on \"Squawk on the Street.\"</p><p><blockquote>CNBC 的吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 在“Squawk on the Street”节目中表示：“这是我见过的最活跃的市场之一，就我而言，现在不建议撤资。”</blockquote></p><p> The weekly gains came even after the Commerce Department reported that its inflation indicator rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国商务部报告称 5 月份通胀指标上升 3.4%，为 20 世纪 90 年代初以来的最快增幅，但每周仍出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Spikes in the core personal consumption expenditures price index can cause heartburn for investors since the Federal Reserve likes to watch it for signs of inflation. Still, the rise actually undershot what economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast and reinforced for investors that the economy-wide price increases are likely to be transient and manageable.</p><p><blockquote>核心个人消费支出价格指数的飙升可能会让投资者感到不安，因为美联储喜欢关注通胀迹象。尽管如此，这一涨幅实际上低于道琼斯调查的经济学家的预测，并向投资者证实了整个经济的价格上涨可能是短暂的和可控的。</blockquote></p><p> A massive, bipartisan infrastructure deal appeared revitalized as of Sunday evening after President Joe Biden&nbsp;clarified on Saturday thathe doesn’t plan to veto the legislationif it comes without a separate reconciliation bill favored by Democrats. Republican senators then said on Sunday that thedeal can move forward.</p><p><blockquote>美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）周六澄清说，如果没有民主党人支持的单独和解法案，他不打算否决这项立法，截至周日晚间，一项大规模的两党基础设施协议似乎重获新生。共和党参议员周日表示，该协议可以推进。</blockquote></p><p> The president, flanked by a bipartisan group of senators, declared on Thursday thatthe group had reached a multibillion-dollar dealto improve the nation’s roads, bridges, waterways and broadband after weeks of negotiation. Democrats have been pushing for a second bill that would include funding for issues like climate change, child care, health care and education.</p><p><blockquote>总统在两党参议员小组的陪同下于周四宣布，经过数周的谈判，该小组已达成一项价值数十亿美元的协议，以改善国家的道路、桥梁、水道和宽带。民主党人一直在推动第二项法案，其中包括为气候变化、儿童保育、医疗保健和教育等问题提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> “The bipartisan infrastructure agreement hammered out in Washington DC last week appears to stand some chance of becoming a reality,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a note. “This program could serve the country near and longer term in generating job creation, boost economic growth, underpin corporate revenue and earnings growth and increase the ability of the US to compete with other nations in the still relatively new but hypercompetitive 21st Century.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥本海默资产管理公司（Oppenheimer Asset Management）首席投资策略师约翰-斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在一份报告中写道：”上周在华盛顿特区敲定的两党基础设施协议似乎有可能成为现实。“该计划可以在近期和长期内为美国创造就业机会、促进经济增长、支撑企业收入和盈利增长，并提高美国在相对较新但竞争激烈的 21 世纪与其他国家竞争的能力”。</blockquote></p><p> The next major piece of economic datais the June jobs report, which the Labor Department is scheduled to publish on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>下一个主要经济数据是劳工部定于周五发布的 6 月份就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 683,000 in June. While such a robust reading would top&nbsp;the 559,000 in May, it would still be below the 1 million some had hoped a recovering U.S. economy could post as it emerged from the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家预计6月份非农就业人数将增加68.3万人。虽然如此强劲的数据将在 5 月份突破 55.9 万人，但仍低于一些人希望美国经济复苏能够从 Covid-19 危机中恢复过来的 100 万人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also pore over the June report for any signs of wage inflation as employers struggle to find workers to fill job openings and pandemic-era jobless benefits taper off in some states.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将仔细研究 6 月份的报告，寻找工资通胀的任何迹象，因为雇主正在努力寻找工人来填补空缺，而且一些州疫情时代的失业救济金正在减少。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 21:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周一早盘交易混乱，但科技股的强劲开局推动纳斯达克综合指数再创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was little changed, while the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 0.4%. </p><p><blockquote>标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数变化不大，而纳斯达克指数上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b8a64385f7358f0794a3aace8bce76\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks led in early trading, with shares of Apple and Amazon rising about 1% and Salesforce adding 2%. Aerospace giant Boeing weighed on the Dow, with shares falling 2% after&nbsp;regulators told the company it is not likely to receive certification&nbsp;for its long-range aircraft until at least 2023.</p><p><blockquote>科技股早盘领涨，苹果和亚马逊股价上涨约 1%，Salesforce 上涨 2%。航空航天巨头波音公司令道琼斯指数承压，监管机构告诉该公司其远程飞机至少要到 2023 年才能获得认证，该公司股价下跌 2%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday's moves came as Treasury yields retreated across most maturities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 1.49%. Yields move inverse of prices.</p><p><blockquote>周一的走势发生之际，大多数期限的国债收益率都有所回落，基准 10 年期国债收益率跌至 1.49% 左右。收益率与价格成反比。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks finished their best week in months on Friday as investors are growing more confident the current inflation in the U.S. is not a sustained economic threat, but a temporary uptick.</p><p><blockquote>周五，随着投资者越来越相信美国当前的通胀不是持续的经济威胁，而是暂时的上涨，股市结束了几个月来最好的一周。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday at a closing record high of 4,280.70, while the Dow rose 237 points. While the Nasdaq Composite closed just lower on Friday, it added 2.35% for the week, its best since April 9 and is up 4.45% for the month of June.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周五收盘创下4,280.70点的历史新高，而道琼斯指数上涨237点。尽管纳斯达克综合指数周五收盘走低，但本周上涨 2.35%，为 4 月 9 日以来的最佳表现，6 月份上涨 4.45%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This is one of the more buoyant markets I've ever seen, and as far as I'm concerned taking money off the table is not advised right now,\" CNBC's Jim Cramer said on \"Squawk on the Street.\"</p><p><blockquote>CNBC 的吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 在“Squawk on the Street”节目中表示：“这是我见过的最活跃的市场之一，就我而言，现在不建议撤资。”</blockquote></p><p> The weekly gains came even after the Commerce Department reported that its inflation indicator rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国商务部报告称 5 月份通胀指标上升 3.4%，为 20 世纪 90 年代初以来的最快增幅，但每周仍出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Spikes in the core personal consumption expenditures price index can cause heartburn for investors since the Federal Reserve likes to watch it for signs of inflation. Still, the rise actually undershot what economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast and reinforced for investors that the economy-wide price increases are likely to be transient and manageable.</p><p><blockquote>核心个人消费支出价格指数的飙升可能会让投资者感到不安，因为美联储喜欢关注通胀迹象。尽管如此，这一涨幅实际上低于道琼斯调查的经济学家的预测，并向投资者证实了整个经济的价格上涨可能是短暂的和可控的。</blockquote></p><p> A massive, bipartisan infrastructure deal appeared revitalized as of Sunday evening after President Joe Biden&nbsp;clarified on Saturday thathe doesn’t plan to veto the legislationif it comes without a separate reconciliation bill favored by Democrats. Republican senators then said on Sunday that thedeal can move forward.</p><p><blockquote>美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）周六澄清说，如果没有民主党人支持的单独和解法案，他不打算否决这项立法，截至周日晚间，一项大规模的两党基础设施协议似乎重获新生。共和党参议员周日表示，该协议可以推进。</blockquote></p><p> The president, flanked by a bipartisan group of senators, declared on Thursday thatthe group had reached a multibillion-dollar dealto improve the nation’s roads, bridges, waterways and broadband after weeks of negotiation. Democrats have been pushing for a second bill that would include funding for issues like climate change, child care, health care and education.</p><p><blockquote>总统在两党参议员小组的陪同下于周四宣布，经过数周的谈判，该小组已达成一项价值数十亿美元的协议，以改善国家的道路、桥梁、水道和宽带。民主党人一直在推动第二项法案，其中包括为气候变化、儿童保育、医疗保健和教育等问题提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> “The bipartisan infrastructure agreement hammered out in Washington DC last week appears to stand some chance of becoming a reality,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a note. “This program could serve the country near and longer term in generating job creation, boost economic growth, underpin corporate revenue and earnings growth and increase the ability of the US to compete with other nations in the still relatively new but hypercompetitive 21st Century.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥本海默资产管理公司（Oppenheimer Asset Management）首席投资策略师约翰-斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在一份报告中写道：”上周在华盛顿特区敲定的两党基础设施协议似乎有可能成为现实。“该计划可以在近期和长期内为美国创造就业机会、促进经济增长、支撑企业收入和盈利增长，并提高美国在相对较新但竞争激烈的 21 世纪与其他国家竞争的能力”。</blockquote></p><p> The next major piece of economic datais the June jobs report, which the Labor Department is scheduled to publish on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>下一个主要经济数据是劳工部定于周五发布的 6 月份就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 683,000 in June. While such a robust reading would top&nbsp;the 559,000 in May, it would still be below the 1 million some had hoped a recovering U.S. economy could post as it emerged from the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家预计6月份非农就业人数将增加68.3万人。虽然如此强劲的数据将在 5 月份突破 55.9 万人，但仍低于一些人希望美国经济复苏能够从 Covid-19 危机中恢复过来的 100 万人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also pore over the June report for any signs of wage inflation as employers struggle to find workers to fill job openings and pandemic-era jobless benefits taper off in some states.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将仔细研究 6 月份的报告，寻找工资通胀的任何迹象，因为雇主正在努力寻找工人来填补空缺，而且一些州疫情时代的失业救济金正在减少。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163614299","content_text":"The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high.\nThe S&P 500 and The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. \n\nTech stocks led in early trading, with shares of Apple and Amazon rising about 1% and Salesforce adding 2%. Aerospace giant Boeing weighed on the Dow, with shares falling 2% after regulators told the company it is not likely to receive certification for its long-range aircraft until at least 2023.\nMonday's moves came as Treasury yields retreated across most maturities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 1.49%. Yields move inverse of prices.\nStocks finished their best week in months on Friday as investors are growing more confident the current inflation in the U.S. is not a sustained economic threat, but a temporary uptick.\nThe S&P 500 ended Friday at a closing record high of 4,280.70, while the Dow rose 237 points. While the Nasdaq Composite closed just lower on Friday, it added 2.35% for the week, its best since April 9 and is up 4.45% for the month of June.\n\"This is one of the more buoyant markets I've ever seen, and as far as I'm concerned taking money off the table is not advised right now,\" CNBC's Jim Cramer said on \"Squawk on the Street.\"\nThe weekly gains came even after the Commerce Department reported that its inflation indicator rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s.\nSpikes in the core personal consumption expenditures price index can cause heartburn for investors since the Federal Reserve likes to watch it for signs of inflation. Still, the rise actually undershot what economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast and reinforced for investors that the economy-wide price increases are likely to be transient and manageable.\nA massive, bipartisan infrastructure deal appeared revitalized as of Sunday evening after President Joe Biden clarified on Saturday thathe doesn’t plan to veto the legislationif it comes without a separate reconciliation bill favored by Democrats. Republican senators then said on Sunday that thedeal can move forward.\nThe president, flanked by a bipartisan group of senators, declared on Thursday thatthe group had reached a multibillion-dollar dealto improve the nation’s roads, bridges, waterways and broadband after weeks of negotiation. Democrats have been pushing for a second bill that would include funding for issues like climate change, child care, health care and education.\n“The bipartisan infrastructure agreement hammered out in Washington DC last week appears to stand some chance of becoming a reality,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a note. “This program could serve the country near and longer term in generating job creation, boost economic growth, underpin corporate revenue and earnings growth and increase the ability of the US to compete with other nations in the still relatively new but hypercompetitive 21st Century.”\nThe next major piece of economic datais the June jobs report, which the Labor Department is scheduled to publish on Friday.\nEconomists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 683,000 in June. While such a robust reading would top the 559,000 in May, it would still be below the 1 million some had hoped a recovering U.S. economy could post as it emerged from the Covid-19 crisis.\nInvestors will also pore over the June report for any signs of wage inflation as employers struggle to find workers to fill job openings and pandemic-era jobless benefits taper off in some states.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125713647,"gmtCreate":1624692967189,"gmtModify":1631890878807,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125713647","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125719997,"gmtCreate":1624692865919,"gmtModify":1631890878807,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016610658985","authorIdStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125719997","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":150160967,"gmtCreate":1624889921259,"gmtModify":1631890878771,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Awww","listText":"Awww","text":"Awww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150160967","repostId":"1148481357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148481357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624888651,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148481357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148481357","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath & Beyond climbed be","content":"<p>Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond climbed between 5% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票再次火爆。 CCIV、Workhorse、GameStop、AMC 和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 上涨了 5% 至 7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2694f87fdac29278fbf2a583a1bf36\" tg-width=\"390\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stocks are blazing hot, once again.<blockquote>模因股票再次炙手可热。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 21:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond climbed between 5% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票再次火爆。 CCIV、Workhorse、GameStop、AMC 和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 上涨了 5% 至 7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2694f87fdac29278fbf2a583a1bf36\" tg-width=\"390\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148481357","content_text":"Meme stocks are blazing hot, once again.CCIV,Workhorse,GameStop,AMC and Bed Bath & Beyond climbed between 5% and 7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"CCIV":0.9,"WKHS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155368305,"gmtCreate":1625377068507,"gmtModify":1631890878764,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155368305","repostId":"1104835932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104835932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276444,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104835932?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104835932","media":"The Street","summary":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor  . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections,","content":"<p>  <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>  Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了，因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价能力。</i>想着……台积电（TSM）。台积电将于 7 月 16 日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前，华尔街正在寻找0.93美元的每股收益，意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在分析师群体中并不那么受欢迎。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测，六位做出了年度预测，只有两位真正挺身而出，在过去六个月的任何时候都设定了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对 TSM 第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为 0.91 美元至 0.95 美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为 132 亿美元，同比销售额增长约 27%。这将是连续第二个季度销售增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称，由于数据中显示了iPhone的出货量，台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然，由于中国大陆禁止比特币采矿，客户比特大陆减少了购买量，并没有像一些人预期的那样对 TSM 的销售造成影响。对 5 纳米和 7 纳米处理器的需求抵消了该采矿业务的损失，因为该公司及时为苹果 (AAPL) 智能手机发货了芯片，并出现在 6 月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持 20% 的增长，并且 6 月份可能与 5 月份持平（这是一件好事）。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>今天（周五）凌晨，有消息称苹果和英特尔（INTC）将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户，如果一切顺利，该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称，英特尔正在规划至少两个项目，围绕新的3nm芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是目前最先进的芯片，如果你有一部iPhone 12，你就有了其中一个芯片。TSM表示，与当前的5nm产品相比，新的3nm芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%，同时还将功耗降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，英特尔本周早些时候宣布推迟蓝宝石急流数据中心处理器。虽然这在华尔街被视为先进微设备公司 (AMD) 甚至英伟达 (NVDA) 从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会，但也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们将很快达到这样的地步，即他们可以作为其他芯片设计商的全球代工厂与台积电等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的少数几个真正报道这个名字的分析师中，只有一个对这个消息做出了反应。Susquehanna 的五星级（TipRanks 评级）分析师 Mehdi Hosseini 将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”，同时将目标价从 85 美元上调至 105 美元。最近唯一一位给出目标价的分析师是 Argus Research 的 Jim Kelleher（也是五星级）。Kelleher 一周前将其命名为“买入”，目标价为 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到，在四月下旬，这些股票成功地将下降三角形（这是一个看跌模式）变成了平坦的基础模式，而从未让三角形关闭。自触底以来，TSM 收复了 21 日均线和 50 日移动平均线，并利用前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>老粉丝们都知道，我对半决赛已经有一段时间了，尽管，或者更确切地说，是因为广泛覆盖的短缺正在创造巨大的定价能力。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多了 AMD 和 Marvell Technology (MRVL)，这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是 long Micron (MU)，直到本周看起来还不错。我喜欢英伟达，这简直是史诗。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名称……Applied Materials (AMAT) 和 Brooks Automation (BRKS)，这两个名字都不错，分别是 meh。我可能有空间容纳一家大型代工厂，一旦英特尔试图涉足他们的业务，它可能会做英特尔的短期工作（我的观点）。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟，可能是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试 21 日均线或收复 122 美元水平（这是我们的支点）时，会增加第二批 1/8。我们采取该枢轴时的目标价将是 144 美元，而目前（购买这些股票后），我将选择 110 美元的恐慌点（初始入场 8% 折扣）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>  Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了，因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价能力。</i>想着……台积电（TSM）。台积电将于 7 月 16 日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前，华尔街正在寻找0.93美元的每股收益，意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在分析师群体中并不那么受欢迎。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测，六位做出了年度预测，只有两位真正挺身而出，在过去六个月的任何时候都设定了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对 TSM 第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为 0.91 美元至 0.95 美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为 132 亿美元，同比销售额增长约 27%。这将是连续第二个季度销售增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称，由于数据中显示了iPhone的出货量，台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然，由于中国大陆禁止比特币采矿，客户比特大陆减少了购买量，并没有像一些人预期的那样对 TSM 的销售造成影响。对 5 纳米和 7 纳米处理器的需求抵消了该采矿业务的损失，因为该公司及时为苹果 (AAPL) 智能手机发货了芯片，并出现在 6 月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持 20% 的增长，并且 6 月份可能与 5 月份持平（这是一件好事）。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>今天（周五）凌晨，有消息称苹果和英特尔（INTC）将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户，如果一切顺利，该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称，英特尔正在规划至少两个项目，围绕新的3nm芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是目前最先进的芯片，如果你有一部iPhone 12，你就有了其中一个芯片。TSM表示，与当前的5nm产品相比，新的3nm芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%，同时还将功耗降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，英特尔本周早些时候宣布推迟蓝宝石急流数据中心处理器。虽然这在华尔街被视为先进微设备公司 (AMD) 甚至英伟达 (NVDA) 从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会，但也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们将很快达到这样的地步，即他们可以作为其他芯片设计商的全球代工厂与台积电等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的少数几个真正报道这个名字的分析师中，只有一个对这个消息做出了反应。Susquehanna 的五星级（TipRanks 评级）分析师 Mehdi Hosseini 将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”，同时将目标价从 85 美元上调至 105 美元。最近唯一一位给出目标价的分析师是 Argus Research 的 Jim Kelleher（也是五星级）。Kelleher 一周前将其命名为“买入”，目标价为 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到，在四月下旬，这些股票成功地将下降三角形（这是一个看跌模式）变成了平坦的基础模式，而从未让三角形关闭。自触底以来，TSM 收复了 21 日均线和 50 日移动平均线，并利用前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>老粉丝们都知道，我对半决赛已经有一段时间了，尽管，或者更确切地说，是因为广泛覆盖的短缺正在创造巨大的定价能力。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多了 AMD 和 Marvell Technology (MRVL)，这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是 long Micron (MU)，直到本周看起来还不错。我喜欢英伟达，这简直是史诗。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名称……Applied Materials (AMAT) 和 Brooks Automation (BRKS)，这两个名字都不错，分别是 meh。我可能有空间容纳一家大型代工厂，一旦英特尔试图涉足他们的业务，它可能会做英特尔的短期工作（我的观点）。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟，可能是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试 21 日均线或收复 122 美元水平（这是我们的支点）时，会增加第二批 1/8。我们采取该枢轴时的目标价将是 144 美元，而目前（购买这些股票后），我将选择 110 美元的恐慌点（初始入场 8% 折扣）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","AAPL":"苹果","AMD":"美国超微公司","AMAT":"应用材料","MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104835932","content_text":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.\nThe range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.\nThis Week\nIt was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).\nEarly this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.\nJust a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.\nAs an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.\nWall Street\nOf those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.\nThe Chart\n\nReaders will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.\nThe Plan\nRegular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\nI am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.\nI am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.\nI think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"MU":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"BRKS":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150189262,"gmtCreate":1624889667656,"gmtModify":1631890878807,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🎉","listText":"🎉","text":"🎉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150189262","repostId":"1163614299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163614299","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624887262,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163614299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 21:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163614299","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pus","content":"<p>The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周一早盘交易混乱，但科技股的强劲开局推动纳斯达克综合指数再创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was little changed, while the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 0.4%. </p><p><blockquote>标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数变化不大，而纳斯达克指数上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b8a64385f7358f0794a3aace8bce76\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks led in early trading, with shares of Apple and Amazon rising about 1% and Salesforce adding 2%. Aerospace giant Boeing weighed on the Dow, with shares falling 2% after&nbsp;regulators told the company it is not likely to receive certification&nbsp;for its long-range aircraft until at least 2023.</p><p><blockquote>科技股早盘领涨，苹果和亚马逊股价上涨约 1%，Salesforce 上涨 2%。航空航天巨头波音公司令道琼斯指数承压，监管机构告诉该公司其远程飞机至少要到 2023 年才能获得认证，该公司股价下跌 2%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday's moves came as Treasury yields retreated across most maturities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 1.49%. Yields move inverse of prices.</p><p><blockquote>周一的走势发生之际，大多数期限的国债收益率都有所回落，基准 10 年期国债收益率跌至 1.49% 左右。收益率与价格成反比。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks finished their best week in months on Friday as investors are growing more confident the current inflation in the U.S. is not a sustained economic threat, but a temporary uptick.</p><p><blockquote>周五，随着投资者越来越相信美国当前的通胀不是持续的经济威胁，而是暂时的上涨，股市结束了几个月来最好的一周。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday at a closing record high of 4,280.70, while the Dow rose 237 points. While the Nasdaq Composite closed just lower on Friday, it added 2.35% for the week, its best since April 9 and is up 4.45% for the month of June.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周五收盘创下4,280.70点的历史新高，而道琼斯指数上涨237点。尽管纳斯达克综合指数周五收盘走低，但本周上涨 2.35%，为 4 月 9 日以来的最佳表现，6 月份上涨 4.45%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This is one of the more buoyant markets I've ever seen, and as far as I'm concerned taking money off the table is not advised right now,\" CNBC's Jim Cramer said on \"Squawk on the Street.\"</p><p><blockquote>CNBC 的吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 在“Squawk on the Street”节目中表示：“这是我见过的最活跃的市场之一，就我而言，现在不建议撤资。”</blockquote></p><p> The weekly gains came even after the Commerce Department reported that its inflation indicator rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国商务部报告称 5 月份通胀指标上升 3.4%，为 20 世纪 90 年代初以来的最快增幅，但每周仍出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Spikes in the core personal consumption expenditures price index can cause heartburn for investors since the Federal Reserve likes to watch it for signs of inflation. Still, the rise actually undershot what economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast and reinforced for investors that the economy-wide price increases are likely to be transient and manageable.</p><p><blockquote>核心个人消费支出价格指数的飙升可能会让投资者感到不安，因为美联储喜欢关注通胀迹象。尽管如此，这一涨幅实际上低于道琼斯调查的经济学家的预测，并向投资者证实了整个经济的价格上涨可能是短暂的和可控的。</blockquote></p><p> A massive, bipartisan infrastructure deal appeared revitalized as of Sunday evening after President Joe Biden&nbsp;clarified on Saturday thathe doesn’t plan to veto the legislationif it comes without a separate reconciliation bill favored by Democrats. Republican senators then said on Sunday that thedeal can move forward.</p><p><blockquote>美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）周六澄清说，如果没有民主党人支持的单独和解法案，他不打算否决这项立法，截至周日晚间，一项大规模的两党基础设施协议似乎重获新生。共和党参议员周日表示，该协议可以推进。</blockquote></p><p> The president, flanked by a bipartisan group of senators, declared on Thursday thatthe group had reached a multibillion-dollar dealto improve the nation’s roads, bridges, waterways and broadband after weeks of negotiation. Democrats have been pushing for a second bill that would include funding for issues like climate change, child care, health care and education.</p><p><blockquote>总统在两党参议员小组的陪同下于周四宣布，经过数周的谈判，该小组已达成一项价值数十亿美元的协议，以改善国家的道路、桥梁、水道和宽带。民主党人一直在推动第二项法案，其中包括为气候变化、儿童保育、医疗保健和教育等问题提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> “The bipartisan infrastructure agreement hammered out in Washington DC last week appears to stand some chance of becoming a reality,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a note. “This program could serve the country near and longer term in generating job creation, boost economic growth, underpin corporate revenue and earnings growth and increase the ability of the US to compete with other nations in the still relatively new but hypercompetitive 21st Century.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥本海默资产管理公司（Oppenheimer Asset Management）首席投资策略师约翰-斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在一份报告中写道：”上周在华盛顿特区敲定的两党基础设施协议似乎有可能成为现实。“该计划可以在近期和长期内为美国创造就业机会、促进经济增长、支撑企业收入和盈利增长，并提高美国在相对较新但竞争激烈的 21 世纪与其他国家竞争的能力”。</blockquote></p><p> The next major piece of economic datais the June jobs report, which the Labor Department is scheduled to publish on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>下一个主要经济数据是劳工部定于周五发布的 6 月份就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 683,000 in June. While such a robust reading would top&nbsp;the 559,000 in May, it would still be below the 1 million some had hoped a recovering U.S. economy could post as it emerged from the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家预计6月份非农就业人数将增加68.3万人。虽然如此强劲的数据将在 5 月份突破 55.9 万人，但仍低于一些人希望美国经济复苏能够从 Covid-19 危机中恢复过来的 100 万人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also pore over the June report for any signs of wage inflation as employers struggle to find workers to fill job openings and pandemic-era jobless benefits taper off in some states.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将仔细研究 6 月份的报告，寻找工资通胀的任何迹象，因为雇主正在努力寻找工人来填补空缺，而且一些州疫情时代的失业救济金正在减少。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks rise slightly to start the week, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records<blockquote>本周初股市小幅上涨，标普500和纳斯达克创下新纪录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 21:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周一早盘交易混乱，但科技股的强劲开局推动纳斯达克综合指数再创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was little changed, while the&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;rose 0.4%. </p><p><blockquote>标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数变化不大，而纳斯达克指数上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b8a64385f7358f0794a3aace8bce76\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks led in early trading, with shares of Apple and Amazon rising about 1% and Salesforce adding 2%. Aerospace giant Boeing weighed on the Dow, with shares falling 2% after&nbsp;regulators told the company it is not likely to receive certification&nbsp;for its long-range aircraft until at least 2023.</p><p><blockquote>科技股早盘领涨，苹果和亚马逊股价上涨约 1%，Salesforce 上涨 2%。航空航天巨头波音公司令道琼斯指数承压，监管机构告诉该公司其远程飞机至少要到 2023 年才能获得认证，该公司股价下跌 2%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday's moves came as Treasury yields retreated across most maturities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 1.49%. Yields move inverse of prices.</p><p><blockquote>周一的走势发生之际，大多数期限的国债收益率都有所回落，基准 10 年期国债收益率跌至 1.49% 左右。收益率与价格成反比。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks finished their best week in months on Friday as investors are growing more confident the current inflation in the U.S. is not a sustained economic threat, but a temporary uptick.</p><p><blockquote>周五，随着投资者越来越相信美国当前的通胀不是持续的经济威胁，而是暂时的上涨，股市结束了几个月来最好的一周。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday at a closing record high of 4,280.70, while the Dow rose 237 points. While the Nasdaq Composite closed just lower on Friday, it added 2.35% for the week, its best since April 9 and is up 4.45% for the month of June.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周五收盘创下4,280.70点的历史新高，而道琼斯指数上涨237点。尽管纳斯达克综合指数周五收盘走低，但本周上涨 2.35%，为 4 月 9 日以来的最佳表现，6 月份上涨 4.45%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This is one of the more buoyant markets I've ever seen, and as far as I'm concerned taking money off the table is not advised right now,\" CNBC's Jim Cramer said on \"Squawk on the Street.\"</p><p><blockquote>CNBC 的吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 在“Squawk on the Street”节目中表示：“这是我见过的最活跃的市场之一，就我而言，现在不建议撤资。”</blockquote></p><p> The weekly gains came even after the Commerce Department reported that its inflation indicator rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国商务部报告称 5 月份通胀指标上升 3.4%，为 20 世纪 90 年代初以来的最快增幅，但每周仍出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Spikes in the core personal consumption expenditures price index can cause heartburn for investors since the Federal Reserve likes to watch it for signs of inflation. Still, the rise actually undershot what economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast and reinforced for investors that the economy-wide price increases are likely to be transient and manageable.</p><p><blockquote>核心个人消费支出价格指数的飙升可能会让投资者感到不安，因为美联储喜欢关注通胀迹象。尽管如此，这一涨幅实际上低于道琼斯调查的经济学家的预测，并向投资者证实了整个经济的价格上涨可能是短暂的和可控的。</blockquote></p><p> A massive, bipartisan infrastructure deal appeared revitalized as of Sunday evening after President Joe Biden&nbsp;clarified on Saturday thathe doesn’t plan to veto the legislationif it comes without a separate reconciliation bill favored by Democrats. Republican senators then said on Sunday that thedeal can move forward.</p><p><blockquote>美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）周六澄清说，如果没有民主党人支持的单独和解法案，他不打算否决这项立法，截至周日晚间，一项大规模的两党基础设施协议似乎重获新生。共和党参议员周日表示，该协议可以推进。</blockquote></p><p> The president, flanked by a bipartisan group of senators, declared on Thursday thatthe group had reached a multibillion-dollar dealto improve the nation’s roads, bridges, waterways and broadband after weeks of negotiation. Democrats have been pushing for a second bill that would include funding for issues like climate change, child care, health care and education.</p><p><blockquote>总统在两党参议员小组的陪同下于周四宣布，经过数周的谈判，该小组已达成一项价值数十亿美元的协议，以改善国家的道路、桥梁、水道和宽带。民主党人一直在推动第二项法案，其中包括为气候变化、儿童保育、医疗保健和教育等问题提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> “The bipartisan infrastructure agreement hammered out in Washington DC last week appears to stand some chance of becoming a reality,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a note. “This program could serve the country near and longer term in generating job creation, boost economic growth, underpin corporate revenue and earnings growth and increase the ability of the US to compete with other nations in the still relatively new but hypercompetitive 21st Century.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥本海默资产管理公司（Oppenheimer Asset Management）首席投资策略师约翰-斯托尔茨福斯（John Stoltzfus）在一份报告中写道：”上周在华盛顿特区敲定的两党基础设施协议似乎有可能成为现实。“该计划可以在近期和长期内为美国创造就业机会、促进经济增长、支撑企业收入和盈利增长，并提高美国在相对较新但竞争激烈的 21 世纪与其他国家竞争的能力”。</blockquote></p><p> The next major piece of economic datais the June jobs report, which the Labor Department is scheduled to publish on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>下一个主要经济数据是劳工部定于周五发布的 6 月份就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 683,000 in June. While such a robust reading would top&nbsp;the 559,000 in May, it would still be below the 1 million some had hoped a recovering U.S. economy could post as it emerged from the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家预计6月份非农就业人数将增加68.3万人。虽然如此强劲的数据将在 5 月份突破 55.9 万人，但仍低于一些人希望美国经济复苏能够从 Covid-19 危机中恢复过来的 100 万人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will also pore over the June report for any signs of wage inflation as employers struggle to find workers to fill job openings and pandemic-era jobless benefits taper off in some states.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将仔细研究 6 月份的报告，寻找工资通胀的任何迹象，因为雇主正在努力寻找工人来填补空缺，而且一些州疫情时代的失业救济金正在减少。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163614299","content_text":"The U.S. stock market was muddled in early trading on Monday, but a strong start for tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high.\nThe S&P 500 and The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. \n\nTech stocks led in early trading, with shares of Apple and Amazon rising about 1% and Salesforce adding 2%. Aerospace giant Boeing weighed on the Dow, with shares falling 2% after regulators told the company it is not likely to receive certification for its long-range aircraft until at least 2023.\nMonday's moves came as Treasury yields retreated across most maturities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 1.49%. Yields move inverse of prices.\nStocks finished their best week in months on Friday as investors are growing more confident the current inflation in the U.S. is not a sustained economic threat, but a temporary uptick.\nThe S&P 500 ended Friday at a closing record high of 4,280.70, while the Dow rose 237 points. While the Nasdaq Composite closed just lower on Friday, it added 2.35% for the week, its best since April 9 and is up 4.45% for the month of June.\n\"This is one of the more buoyant markets I've ever seen, and as far as I'm concerned taking money off the table is not advised right now,\" CNBC's Jim Cramer said on \"Squawk on the Street.\"\nThe weekly gains came even after the Commerce Department reported that its inflation indicator rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s.\nSpikes in the core personal consumption expenditures price index can cause heartburn for investors since the Federal Reserve likes to watch it for signs of inflation. Still, the rise actually undershot what economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast and reinforced for investors that the economy-wide price increases are likely to be transient and manageable.\nA massive, bipartisan infrastructure deal appeared revitalized as of Sunday evening after President Joe Biden clarified on Saturday thathe doesn’t plan to veto the legislationif it comes without a separate reconciliation bill favored by Democrats. Republican senators then said on Sunday that thedeal can move forward.\nThe president, flanked by a bipartisan group of senators, declared on Thursday thatthe group had reached a multibillion-dollar dealto improve the nation’s roads, bridges, waterways and broadband after weeks of negotiation. Democrats have been pushing for a second bill that would include funding for issues like climate change, child care, health care and education.\n“The bipartisan infrastructure agreement hammered out in Washington DC last week appears to stand some chance of becoming a reality,” wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, in a note. “This program could serve the country near and longer term in generating job creation, boost economic growth, underpin corporate revenue and earnings growth and increase the ability of the US to compete with other nations in the still relatively new but hypercompetitive 21st Century.”\nThe next major piece of economic datais the June jobs report, which the Labor Department is scheduled to publish on Friday.\nEconomists are expecting that nonfarm payrolls increased by 683,000 in June. While such a robust reading would top the 559,000 in May, it would still be below the 1 million some had hoped a recovering U.S. economy could post as it emerged from the Covid-19 crisis.\nInvestors will also pore over the June report for any signs of wage inflation as employers struggle to find workers to fill job openings and pandemic-era jobless benefits taper off in some states.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155365976,"gmtCreate":1625377313095,"gmtModify":1631890878734,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎😎","listText":"😎😎","text":"😎😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155365976","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155362310,"gmtCreate":1625377242830,"gmtModify":1631890878738,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155362310","repostId":"1130764181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125719997,"gmtCreate":1624692865919,"gmtModify":1631890878807,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125719997","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":155366057,"gmtCreate":1625377148379,"gmtModify":1631890878756,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎","listText":"😎","text":"😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155366057","repostId":"1149622010","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125713647,"gmtCreate":1624692967189,"gmtModify":1631890878807,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125713647","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149733538,"gmtCreate":1625747963924,"gmtModify":1631890878703,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582016610658985\">@PerfectDay</a>: 😎😎","listText":"😎//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582016610658985\">@PerfectDay</a>: 😎😎","text":"😎//@PerfectDay: 😎😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149733538","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157317545,"gmtCreate":1625565446287,"gmtModify":1631890878717,"author":{"id":"3582016610658985","authorId":"3582016610658985","name":"PerfectDay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b539cbd05fe4bd77b5820e3a6252eb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582016610658985","idStr":"3582016610658985"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157317545","repostId":"1145795655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}