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2021-06-24

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2021-06-23

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Confluent Aims to Become a Value Investment Within a Hype-Driven Tech IPO Market<blockquote>Confluent 旨在成为炒作驱动的科技 IPO 市场中的价值投资</blockquote>

2021-06-23

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Pantera’s Morehead Scores Big Payoff on Bets Beyond Bitcoin<blockquote>Pantera 的 Morehead 在比特币以外的投注中获得巨额回报</blockquote>

2021-06-23

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-18

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Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>为什么油价可能飙升至少 15%：高盛</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-15

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2021-06-14

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2021-06-12

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2021-06-12

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However, in a market that appears to be largely swept up in hype, can this IPO become a viable investment over the long term?</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 的估值约为 83 亿美元，并且由于 Covid-19 大流行后对直播软件的需求激增，收入激增，Confluent 希望通过成功的科技 IPO 来确保其未来。然而，在一个似乎很大程度上被炒作席卷的市场中，从长远来看，这次IPO能成为一项可行的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> As part of itsIPO, Confluent intends to offer 23 million shares at a price range of between $29 and $33 per share, according to its regulatory filing. The company hopes to raise up to $759 million in its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>根据其监管文件，作为 itsIPO 的一部分，Confluent 打算以每股 29 美元至 33 美元的价格发行 2300 万股股票。该公司希望在首次公开募股中筹集高达 7.59 亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> In the build-up to the IPO, Confluent claimed in its filing that the company’s revenue climbed by around 58% in 2020, and a further 51% over the first quarter of 2021 alone to $77 million. Although the company was valued at $4.5 billion in April last year, the company’s optimistic that it can achieve almost double that sum as it aims to hit an $8.3 billion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在首次公开募股前，Confluent 在文件中声称，公司收入在 2020 年攀升了约 58%，仅在 2021 年第一季度就进一步攀升了 51%，达到 7700 万美元。虽然该公司去年 4 月的估值为 45 亿美元，但该公司乐观地认为，它的估值几乎可以翻一番，因为它的目标是达到 83 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Over-Promising and Under-Delivering Tech IPOs?</p><p><blockquote>过度承诺但交付不足的科技IPO？</blockquote></p><p> Although Confluent’s arrival on the Nasdaq represents an excellent opportunity for the company to generate some revenue to secure its future growth, will investors also identify Confluent’s IPO as a key opportunity to secure long-term windfall?</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Confluent 登陆纳斯达克为公司创造一些收入以确保未来增长提供了绝佳机会，但投资者是否也会将 Confluent 的首次公开募股视为获得长期意外之财的关键机会？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e771864f123a3f886a6539c7c995ea\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Image:VisualCapitalist)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（图片来源：视觉资本家）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the data above shows, tech IPOs are by far the leading sector in terms of size, accounting for $21.9 billion in proceeds in 2019 when the data was collected, however, it also averaged out at a post-IPO return of -4.6%.</p><p><blockquote>如上数据所示，就规模而言，科技IPO是迄今为止领先的行业，2019年收集数据时的收益为219亿美元，但IPO后的平均回报率也为-4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Does this data mean that tech IPOs are guilty of over-promising and under-delivering simultaneously? Brownstone Research suggests that this gulf between proceeds and investor ROI is down to companies waiting later before they choose to go public.</p><p><blockquote>这些数据是否意味着科技IPO同时存在过度承诺和交付不足的问题？Brownstone 的研究表明，收益和投资者投资回报率之间的这种差距是由于公司在选择上市之前等待了一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, companies like Amazon opted to go public before they experienced significant growth. However, private companies in the tech sector today are generally choosing to remain private for longer. This means that when they eventually launch an initial public offering, these tech companies are much larger.</p><p><blockquote>例如，像亚马逊这样的公司在经历显著增长之前就选择了上市。然而，如今科技行业的私营公司通常选择更长时间地保持私营状态。这意味着，当他们最终启动首次公开募股时，这些科技公司的规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> As most tech companies have already undergone their early stages of growth prior to going public, retail investors are liable to be left topick up the scrapsonce they enter the public markets.</p><p><blockquote>由于大多数科技公司在上市之前就已经经历了早期增长阶段，一旦进入公开市场，散户投资者很可能会被留下来捡起垃圾。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, whenUberlaunched an IPO in 2019, its enterprise value of around $75 billion meant that the company was already 171 times larger than Amazon when it launched its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，当Nuber在2019年启动IPO时，其约750亿美元的企业价值意味着该公司在启动首次公开募股时已经是亚马逊的171倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the recent IPO bull run of 2020 and early 2021 has helped to embolden more companies to go public sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近2020年和2021年初的IPO牛市有助于鼓励更多公司尽早上市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3064cd4bbfd2705d2216f5c236c6fa\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Image:Financial Times)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（图片来源：金融时报）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to the unprecedented pace in which companies are going public, many tech firms are looking at the revenues they’ve generated in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and are aiming to use them to drive investor interest in their listing.</p><p><blockquote>由于公司上市的速度前所未有，许多科技公司都在关注自己在 Covid-19 大流行后创造的收入，并打算利用这些收入来激发投资者对其上市的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> So far in 2021, the number of listings has eclipsed even that of the dotcom boom at the turn of the century – setting the pace for a record breaking year for IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>2021年到目前为止，上市数量甚至超过了世纪之交的互联网繁荣——为IPO创纪录的一年奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for companies like Confluent and retail investors alike? Well, it points to newfound levels of optimism in companies aiming to go public sooner rather than later, which means that retail investors have the opportunity to invest in more listings that may have more growth potential than usual.</p><p><blockquote>这对 Confluent 和散户投资者等公司意味着什么？嗯，这表明那些旨在尽早上市的公司出现了新的乐观情绪，这意味着散户投资者有机会投资更多可能比平时具有更大增长潜力的上市。</blockquote></p><p> Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom Finance Europe explains that the playing field between retail and institutional investors is far from level. “It is the latter who usually get the far greater share of an IPO: historically, institutional investors get around 90% of all shares, with only around 10% left for retail trades,” explained Manturov.</p><p><blockquote>Freedom Finance Europe 投资研究主管马克西姆·曼图罗夫 (Maxim Manturov) 解释说，散户投资者和机构投资者之间的竞争环境远非公平。“曼图罗夫解释说：”后者通常在 IPO 中获得更大的份额： 从历史上看，机构投资者获得了约 90% 的股份，只有约 10% 的股份留给了散户交易。</blockquote></p><p> “This is where allocation comes from: when the demand is high, the broker will have to reduce order amounts so as to at least partially fill all of them. The allocation ratio, meanwhile, depends on the investor trading activity and volume.”</p><p><blockquote>“这就是分配的来源：当需求高时，经纪商将不得不减少订单数量，以便至少部分填满所有订单。同时，分配比例取决于投资者的交易活动和交易量”。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent Listing Encapsulates Tech IPO Hype</p><p><blockquote>融合上市封装科技IPO炒作</blockquote></p><p> Online brokerages have moved swiftly in accommodating theConfluent IPOand listing it for retail investors to buy.</p><p><blockquote>在线券商迅速采取行动，接受合并后的 IPO，并将其上市供散户投资者购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Confluent listing shows that one year on from the beginning of the IPO boom, listings are still generating excitement and investor interest at a quickening rate. Although Confluent will be conscious of the hype surrounding tech IPOs, the company will be looking to turn a promising 2020 into a fiscally secure future. If some of that growth can lead to healthy returns for investors along the way, it will be a good sign that the tech IPO boom encapsulates far more than a simple stock market hype machine.</p><p><blockquote>合并上市表明，IPO热潮开始一年后，上市仍在以加速的速度引起人们的兴奋和投资者的兴趣。尽管 Confluent 会意识到围绕科技 IPO 的炒作，但该公司将寻求将充满希望的 2020 年转变为财政安全的未来。如果其中一些增长能够为投资者带来健康的回报，这将是一个好迹象，表明科技 IPO 热潮所包含的远不止是简单的股市炒作机器。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent Aims to Become a Value Investment Within a Hype-Driven Tech IPO Market<blockquote>Confluent 旨在成为炒作驱动的科技 IPO 市场中的价值投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent Aims to Become a Value Investment Within a Hype-Driven Tech IPO Market<blockquote>Confluent 旨在成为炒作驱动的科技 IPO 市场中的价值投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FXEmpire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With sights set on a valuation of around$8.3 billionand snowballing revenue thanks to surges in demand for live streaming software in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, Confluent is hoping to secure its future in a successful tech IPO. However, in a market that appears to be largely swept up in hype, can this IPO become a viable investment over the long term?</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 的估值约为 83 亿美元，并且由于 Covid-19 大流行后对直播软件的需求激增，收入激增，Confluent 希望通过成功的科技 IPO 来确保其未来。然而，在一个似乎很大程度上被炒作席卷的市场中，从长远来看，这次IPO能成为一项可行的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> As part of itsIPO, Confluent intends to offer 23 million shares at a price range of between $29 and $33 per share, according to its regulatory filing. The company hopes to raise up to $759 million in its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>根据其监管文件，作为 itsIPO 的一部分，Confluent 打算以每股 29 美元至 33 美元的价格发行 2300 万股股票。该公司希望在首次公开募股中筹集高达 7.59 亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> In the build-up to the IPO, Confluent claimed in its filing that the company’s revenue climbed by around 58% in 2020, and a further 51% over the first quarter of 2021 alone to $77 million. Although the company was valued at $4.5 billion in April last year, the company’s optimistic that it can achieve almost double that sum as it aims to hit an $8.3 billion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在首次公开募股前，Confluent 在文件中声称，公司收入在 2020 年攀升了约 58%，仅在 2021 年第一季度就进一步攀升了 51%，达到 7700 万美元。虽然该公司去年 4 月的估值为 45 亿美元，但该公司乐观地认为，它的估值几乎可以翻一番，因为它的目标是达到 83 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Over-Promising and Under-Delivering Tech IPOs?</p><p><blockquote>过度承诺但交付不足的科技IPO？</blockquote></p><p> Although Confluent’s arrival on the Nasdaq represents an excellent opportunity for the company to generate some revenue to secure its future growth, will investors also identify Confluent’s IPO as a key opportunity to secure long-term windfall?</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Confluent 登陆纳斯达克为公司创造一些收入以确保未来增长提供了绝佳机会，但投资者是否也会将 Confluent 的首次公开募股视为获得长期意外之财的关键机会？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e771864f123a3f886a6539c7c995ea\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Image:VisualCapitalist)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（图片来源：视觉资本家）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the data above shows, tech IPOs are by far the leading sector in terms of size, accounting for $21.9 billion in proceeds in 2019 when the data was collected, however, it also averaged out at a post-IPO return of -4.6%.</p><p><blockquote>如上数据所示，就规模而言，科技IPO是迄今为止领先的行业，2019年收集数据时的收益为219亿美元，但IPO后的平均回报率也为-4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Does this data mean that tech IPOs are guilty of over-promising and under-delivering simultaneously? Brownstone Research suggests that this gulf between proceeds and investor ROI is down to companies waiting later before they choose to go public.</p><p><blockquote>这些数据是否意味着科技IPO同时存在过度承诺和交付不足的问题？Brownstone 的研究表明，收益和投资者投资回报率之间的这种差距是由于公司在选择上市之前等待了一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, companies like Amazon opted to go public before they experienced significant growth. However, private companies in the tech sector today are generally choosing to remain private for longer. This means that when they eventually launch an initial public offering, these tech companies are much larger.</p><p><blockquote>例如，像亚马逊这样的公司在经历显著增长之前就选择了上市。然而，如今科技行业的私营公司通常选择更长时间地保持私营状态。这意味着，当他们最终启动首次公开募股时，这些科技公司的规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> As most tech companies have already undergone their early stages of growth prior to going public, retail investors are liable to be left topick up the scrapsonce they enter the public markets.</p><p><blockquote>由于大多数科技公司在上市之前就已经经历了早期增长阶段，一旦进入公开市场，散户投资者很可能会被留下来捡起垃圾。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, whenUberlaunched an IPO in 2019, its enterprise value of around $75 billion meant that the company was already 171 times larger than Amazon when it launched its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，当Nuber在2019年启动IPO时，其约750亿美元的企业价值意味着该公司在启动首次公开募股时已经是亚马逊的171倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the recent IPO bull run of 2020 and early 2021 has helped to embolden more companies to go public sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近2020年和2021年初的IPO牛市有助于鼓励更多公司尽早上市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3064cd4bbfd2705d2216f5c236c6fa\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Image:Financial Times)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（图片来源：金融时报）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to the unprecedented pace in which companies are going public, many tech firms are looking at the revenues they’ve generated in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and are aiming to use them to drive investor interest in their listing.</p><p><blockquote>由于公司上市的速度前所未有，许多科技公司都在关注自己在 Covid-19 大流行后创造的收入，并打算利用这些收入来激发投资者对其上市的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> So far in 2021, the number of listings has eclipsed even that of the dotcom boom at the turn of the century – setting the pace for a record breaking year for IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>2021年到目前为止，上市数量甚至超过了世纪之交的互联网繁荣——为IPO创纪录的一年奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for companies like Confluent and retail investors alike? Well, it points to newfound levels of optimism in companies aiming to go public sooner rather than later, which means that retail investors have the opportunity to invest in more listings that may have more growth potential than usual.</p><p><blockquote>这对 Confluent 和散户投资者等公司意味着什么？嗯，这表明那些旨在尽早上市的公司出现了新的乐观情绪，这意味着散户投资者有机会投资更多可能比平时具有更大增长潜力的上市。</blockquote></p><p> Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom Finance Europe explains that the playing field between retail and institutional investors is far from level. “It is the latter who usually get the far greater share of an IPO: historically, institutional investors get around 90% of all shares, with only around 10% left for retail trades,” explained Manturov.</p><p><blockquote>Freedom Finance Europe 投资研究主管马克西姆·曼图罗夫 (Maxim Manturov) 解释说，散户投资者和机构投资者之间的竞争环境远非公平。“曼图罗夫解释说：”后者通常在 IPO 中获得更大的份额： 从历史上看，机构投资者获得了约 90% 的股份，只有约 10% 的股份留给了散户交易。</blockquote></p><p> “This is where allocation comes from: when the demand is high, the broker will have to reduce order amounts so as to at least partially fill all of them. The allocation ratio, meanwhile, depends on the investor trading activity and volume.”</p><p><blockquote>“这就是分配的来源：当需求高时，经纪商将不得不减少订单数量，以便至少部分填满所有订单。同时，分配比例取决于投资者的交易活动和交易量”。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent Listing Encapsulates Tech IPO Hype</p><p><blockquote>融合上市封装科技IPO炒作</blockquote></p><p> Online brokerages have moved swiftly in accommodating theConfluent IPOand listing it for retail investors to buy.</p><p><blockquote>在线券商迅速采取行动，接受合并后的 IPO，并将其上市供散户投资者购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Confluent listing shows that one year on from the beginning of the IPO boom, listings are still generating excitement and investor interest at a quickening rate. Although Confluent will be conscious of the hype surrounding tech IPOs, the company will be looking to turn a promising 2020 into a fiscally secure future. If some of that growth can lead to healthy returns for investors along the way, it will be a good sign that the tech IPO boom encapsulates far more than a simple stock market hype machine.</p><p><blockquote>合并上市表明，IPO热潮开始一年后，上市仍在以加速的速度引起人们的兴奋和投资者的兴趣。尽管 Confluent 会意识到围绕科技 IPO 的炒作，但该公司将寻求将充满希望的 2020 年转变为财政安全的未来。如果其中一些增长能够为投资者带来健康的回报，这将是一个好迹象，表明科技 IPO 热潮所包含的远不止是简单的股市炒作机器。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hot-air-confluent-aims-become-064318538.html\">FXEmpire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hot-air-confluent-aims-become-064318538.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102577790","content_text":"With sights set on a valuation of around$8.3 billionand snowballing revenue thanks to surges in demand for live streaming software in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, Confluent is hoping to secure its future in a successful tech IPO. However, in a market that appears to be largely swept up in hype, can this IPO become a viable investment over the long term?\nAs part of itsIPO, Confluent intends to offer 23 million shares at a price range of between $29 and $33 per share, according to its regulatory filing. The company hopes to raise up to $759 million in its initial public offering.\nIn the build-up to the IPO, Confluent claimed in its filing that the company’s revenue climbed by around 58% in 2020, and a further 51% over the first quarter of 2021 alone to $77 million. Although the company was valued at $4.5 billion in April last year, the company’s optimistic that it can achieve almost double that sum as it aims to hit an $8.3 billion valuation.\nOver-Promising and Under-Delivering Tech IPOs?\nAlthough Confluent’s arrival on the Nasdaq represents an excellent opportunity for the company to generate some revenue to secure its future growth, will investors also identify Confluent’s IPO as a key opportunity to secure long-term windfall?\n(Image:VisualCapitalist)\nAs the data above shows, tech IPOs are by far the leading sector in terms of size, accounting for $21.9 billion in proceeds in 2019 when the data was collected, however, it also averaged out at a post-IPO return of -4.6%.\nDoes this data mean that tech IPOs are guilty of over-promising and under-delivering simultaneously? Brownstone Research suggests that this gulf between proceeds and investor ROI is down to companies waiting later before they choose to go public.\nFor instance, companies like Amazon opted to go public before they experienced significant growth. However, private companies in the tech sector today are generally choosing to remain private for longer. This means that when they eventually launch an initial public offering, these tech companies are much larger.\nAs most tech companies have already undergone their early stages of growth prior to going public, retail investors are liable to be left topick up the scrapsonce they enter the public markets.\nFor instance, whenUberlaunched an IPO in 2019, its enterprise value of around $75 billion meant that the company was already 171 times larger than Amazon when it launched its initial public offering.\nHowever, the recent IPO bull run of 2020 and early 2021 has helped to embolden more companies to go public sooner rather than later.\n(Image:Financial Times)\nThanks to the unprecedented pace in which companies are going public, many tech firms are looking at the revenues they’ve generated in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and are aiming to use them to drive investor interest in their listing.\nSo far in 2021, the number of listings has eclipsed even that of the dotcom boom at the turn of the century – setting the pace for a record breaking year for IPOs.\nWhat does this mean for companies like Confluent and retail investors alike? Well, it points to newfound levels of optimism in companies aiming to go public sooner rather than later, which means that retail investors have the opportunity to invest in more listings that may have more growth potential than usual.\nMaxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom Finance Europe explains that the playing field between retail and institutional investors is far from level. “It is the latter who usually get the far greater share of an IPO: historically, institutional investors get around 90% of all shares, with only around 10% left for retail trades,” explained Manturov.\n“This is where allocation comes from: when the demand is high, the broker will have to reduce order amounts so as to at least partially fill all of them. The allocation ratio, meanwhile, depends on the investor trading activity and volume.”\nConfluent Listing Encapsulates Tech IPO Hype\nOnline brokerages have moved swiftly in accommodating theConfluent IPOand listing it for retail investors to buy.\nThe Confluent listing shows that one year on from the beginning of the IPO boom, listings are still generating excitement and investor interest at a quickening rate. Although Confluent will be conscious of the hype surrounding tech IPOs, the company will be looking to turn a promising 2020 into a fiscally secure future. If some of that growth can lead to healthy returns for investors along the way, it will be a good sign that the tech IPO boom encapsulates far more than a simple stock market hype machine.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123291904,"gmtCreate":1624423659708,"gmtModify":1634006307794,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123291904","repostId":"1195773302","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195773302","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624414397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195773302?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pantera’s Morehead Scores Big Payoff on Bets Beyond Bitcoin<blockquote>Pantera 的 Morehead 在比特币以外的投注中获得巨额回报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195773302","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Dan Morehead, a veteran Bitcoin investor, is making more money at his hedge fund firm","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Dan Morehead, a veteran Bitcoin investor, is making more money at his hedge fund firm by diversifying beyond the most popular cryptocurrency. “If you’re just long Bitcoin, it’s kind of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——比特币资深投资者丹·莫尔黑德 (Dan Morehead) 正在他的对冲基金公司通过在最流行的加密货币之外进行多元化投资来赚更多钱。“如果你只是长比特币，那就有点...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pantera-dan-morehead-scores-250-144536785.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pantera-dan-morehead-scores-250-144536785.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pantera’s Morehead Scores Big Payoff on Bets Beyond Bitcoin<blockquote>Pantera 的 Morehead 在比特币以外的投注中获得巨额回报</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPantera’s Morehead Scores Big Payoff on Bets Beyond Bitcoin<blockquote>Pantera 的 Morehead 在比特币以外的投注中获得巨额回报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Dan Morehead, a veteran Bitcoin investor, is making more money at his hedge fund firm by diversifying beyond the most popular cryptocurrency. “If you’re just long Bitcoin, it’s kind of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——比特币资深投资者丹·莫尔黑德 (Dan Morehead) 正在他的对冲基金公司通过在最流行的加密货币之外进行多元化投资来赚更多钱。“如果你只是长比特币，那就有点...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pantera-dan-morehead-scores-250-144536785.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pantera-dan-morehead-scores-250-144536785.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pantera-dan-morehead-scores-250-144536785.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pantera-dan-morehead-scores-250-144536785.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195773302","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Dan Morehead, a veteran Bitcoin investor, is making more money at his hedge fund firm by diversifying beyond the most popular cryptocurrency.\n“If you’re just long Bitcoin, it’s kind of like in the 90s being just long Yahoo -- you know, there were 30 other really important companies to invest in,” Morehead, the head of Pantera Capital Management, said in an interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, Powered by Bloomberg. “Now there are literally 100s of tokens that are liquid enough to trade.”\nPantera’s liquid-token fund soared 166% this year through June 20, compared with a 24% gain for Bitcoin in the same period. Morehead, in the interview taped Friday, said he’s also investing in Audius, which he says is similar to a “decentralized SoundCloud” because it allows users to send audio files while using the Ethereum network. Polkadot is another of his crypto investments.\nThe Pantera founder was an executive at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management earlier in his career, and is now part of a handful of power players in crypto. Morehead said crypto will create a parallel financial system, with blockchain and decentralized finance, or DeFi, connecting buyers and sellers of assets without a bank. Morehead’s firm has $3.2 billion under management, according to its website, and launched its first fund in 2013, when Bitcoin was still $65, compared with more than $32,000 on Monday.\nMorehead was joined in the conversation by Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, who said crypto is a rare investment that’s become truly global and has the potential to overtake some currencies in the next five years.\nNovogratz said that worries about currency debasement will fuel more crypto adoption.\n“There are already 200 currencies on earth, Bitcoin is just number 201,” Morehead said, adding that the U.S. dollar is unlikely to be replaced, but a currency such as the Venezuelan bolivar could be in his lifetime. But mostly, “you’ll just see it as a complement.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123290681,"gmtCreate":1624423578343,"gmtModify":1634006310161,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123290681","repostId":"1121860730","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167230981,"gmtCreate":1624269156543,"gmtModify":1634008647503,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167230981","repostId":"2145086038","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167297963,"gmtCreate":1624269108352,"gmtModify":1634008648224,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167297963","repostId":"1135743520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164836896,"gmtCreate":1624190071315,"gmtModify":1634009653659,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164836896","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164838657,"gmtCreate":1624189963979,"gmtModify":1634009654384,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164838657","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166775937,"gmtCreate":1624026593129,"gmtModify":1634023892900,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166775937","repostId":"1180733695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180733695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021744,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180733695?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>为什么油价可能飙升至少 15%：高盛</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180733695","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lay","content":"<p>Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lays the foundation for much higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie argues.</p><p><blockquote>高盛全球大宗商品研究主管杰弗里·柯里认为，供应限制和全球经济从削弱的 COVID-19 大流行中迅速反弹，为油价大幅上涨奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> \"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements,\" Currie said in a new research note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“短期内，我们最有信心的多头是石油，我们仍然认为布伦特原油第三季度平均价格为 80 美元/桶，潜在飙升至 80 美元/桶以上。随着美国将接力棒移交给欧洲和新兴市场，甚至印度也开始出现改善，全球需求可能会从最近几天的每天 9500 万桶增加到 9700 万桶。”库里在周五给客户的一份新研究报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, oil prices have had a bullish bias of late.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，油价最近有看涨倾向。</blockquote></p><p> At more than$73 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2018. The price of brent crude isup about 55% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>目前布伦特原油价格超过每桶73美元，处于2018年秋季以来的最高水平。今年迄今为止，布伦特原油价格上涨了约 55%。</blockquote></p><p> Recent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand meeting low levels of supply.</p><p><blockquote>强劲需求满足低供应水平的迹象推动了油价近期的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源信息署（EIA）本周报告称，截至6月11日当周，美国原油库存下降740万桶。与此同时，国家统计局报告称，中国5月份原油吞吐量同比增长4.4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Warns Goldman's Currie, \"With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude. We expect further demand increases towards 99.0 million barrels a day by August of which half can be accounted for purely from DM seasonality alone. By then the entire global post-COVID surplus will likely have vanished, by which point we believe elevated crude oil prices could be the catalyst to refocus the market on the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>高盛的柯里警告说，“在核心欧佩克+（海湾合作委员会+俄罗斯）之外几乎没有弹性的供应曲线的情况下，需求增长如此强劲，全球石油市场正面临自去年夏天以来最严重的赤字，达到每天近300万桶。随着炼油厂对利润率的小幅改善迅速做出反应，石油产品供应大体上与最终用途需求的跃升相匹配，使得赤字几乎全部来自原油。我们预计到 8 月份需求将进一步增加至每天 9900 万桶，其中一半纯粹是由于 DM 季节性因素造成的。届时，整个全球后疫情时代的盈余可能会消失，届时我们相信原油价格上涨可能会成为市场重新关注通货膨胀贸易的催化剂。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>为什么油价可能飙升至少 15%：高盛</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>为什么油价可能飙升至少 15%：高盛</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lays the foundation for much higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie argues.</p><p><blockquote>高盛全球大宗商品研究主管杰弗里·柯里认为，供应限制和全球经济从削弱的 COVID-19 大流行中迅速反弹，为油价大幅上涨奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> \"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements,\" Currie said in a new research note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“短期内，我们最有信心的多头是石油，我们仍然认为布伦特原油第三季度平均价格为 80 美元/桶，潜在飙升至 80 美元/桶以上。随着美国将接力棒移交给欧洲和新兴市场，甚至印度也开始出现改善，全球需求可能会从最近几天的每天 9500 万桶增加到 9700 万桶。”库里在周五给客户的一份新研究报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, oil prices have had a bullish bias of late.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，油价最近有看涨倾向。</blockquote></p><p> At more than$73 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2018. The price of brent crude isup about 55% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>目前布伦特原油价格超过每桶73美元，处于2018年秋季以来的最高水平。今年迄今为止，布伦特原油价格上涨了约 55%。</blockquote></p><p> Recent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand meeting low levels of supply.</p><p><blockquote>强劲需求满足低供应水平的迹象推动了油价近期的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源信息署（EIA）本周报告称，截至6月11日当周，美国原油库存下降740万桶。与此同时，国家统计局报告称，中国5月份原油吞吐量同比增长4.4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Warns Goldman's Currie, \"With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude. We expect further demand increases towards 99.0 million barrels a day by August of which half can be accounted for purely from DM seasonality alone. By then the entire global post-COVID surplus will likely have vanished, by which point we believe elevated crude oil prices could be the catalyst to refocus the market on the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>高盛的柯里警告说，“在核心欧佩克+（海湾合作委员会+俄罗斯）之外几乎没有弹性的供应曲线的情况下，需求增长如此强劲，全球石油市场正面临自去年夏天以来最严重的赤字，达到每天近300万桶。随着炼油厂对利润率的小幅改善迅速做出反应，石油产品供应大体上与最终用途需求的跃升相匹配，使得赤字几乎全部来自原油。我们预计到 8 月份需求将进一步增加至每天 9900 万桶，其中一半纯粹是由于 DM 季节性因素造成的。届时，整个全球后疫情时代的盈余可能会消失，届时我们相信原油价格上涨可能会成为市场重新关注通货膨胀贸易的催化剂。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-may-shoot-at-least-15-higher-goldman-sachs-130028408.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-may-shoot-at-least-15-higher-goldman-sachs-130028408.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180733695","content_text":"Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lays the foundation for much higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie argues.\n\"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements,\" Currie said in a new research note to clients on Friday.\nTo be sure, oil prices have had a bullish bias of late.\nAt more than$73 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2018. The price of brent crude isup about 55% year-to-date.\nRecent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand meeting low levels of supply.\nThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.\nWarns Goldman's Currie, \"With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude. We expect further demand increases towards 99.0 million barrels a day by August of which half can be accounted for purely from DM seasonality alone. By then the entire global post-COVID surplus will likely have vanished, by which point we believe elevated crude oil prices could be the catalyst to refocus the market on the reflation trade.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166770861,"gmtCreate":1624026425353,"gmtModify":1634023896992,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166770861","repostId":"1149451535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149451535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021899,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149451535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149451535","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，潜在的房屋卖家们一直紧张，他们终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台 Haus 的数据，6 月初美国待售房屋数量较 5 月份同一周攀升 6.7%。这是自去年 Covid-19 封锁以来的最大增幅。在所测量的 100 个大都市地区中，有 54 个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“在豪斯的数据中，匹兹堡 EXP Realty 的经纪人朱莉-韦尔特（Julie Welter）说：”卖家们都在说，'是时候了，让我们赚钱吧'。“随着世界重新开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适感”。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场距离正常还有很长的路要走，库存仍比一年前下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着东海岸到西海岸的竞购战爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致房源短缺的一个问题：卖家因为很难找到其他东西可以买而留在原地。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现可用的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中值同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得资产净值。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让卖家们不愿让购房者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛。Haus 首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林 (Ralph McLaughlin) 表示，一些人还渴望搬到新冠病毒让他们远离太久的家庭附近。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的 20% 股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的 Redfin 经纪人肖娜·彭德尔顿 (Shauna Pendleton) 表示，今年已有 35 名卖家与她谈论房产上市事宜。她说，这大约是 2020 年同期人数的两倍。Redfin 的数据显示，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区，6 月初房价同比上涨 42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“彭德尔顿谈到她的新卖家客户时说：”这些人大多是退休人员。“封锁让人们对自己想住在哪里有了全新的看法。他们想念家人”。</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>据 Haus 称，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从 5 月初的极低水平攀升了 30%，该地区不包括签约房屋数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）说，由于房价远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新房源不断增加，但房屋正在迅速找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计到今年年底美国房价增长率将放缓至10%以下。他说，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是如果借贷成本开始上升的话。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到 2023 年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”导致新供应的同样力量，可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的同样力量。“这主要是物价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋市场也可能趋于缓和。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。房屋建筑数据提供商和咨询公司 Zonda 的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫 (Ali Wolf) 表示，现在一些买家感受到了一点贴纸冲击。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5 月份调查的建筑商中，约 40% 的人将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于上个月的约 20%。她说，因此，新房市场已经从 “难以忍受 ”的火热变成了炙手可热。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理商正在通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty 的代理人亚历克斯·赖特 (Alex Wright) 表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经 60 多岁了，他们想搬到中西部，以便离她的祖母更近一些。奥斯汀已今非昔比。她说，这里的物价已经变得很贵，从玉米饼到咖啡，什么都要排队，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一套房子仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”竞争仍然非常激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，潜在的房屋卖家们一直紧张，他们终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台 Haus 的数据，6 月初美国待售房屋数量较 5 月份同一周攀升 6.7%。这是自去年 Covid-19 封锁以来的最大增幅。在所测量的 100 个大都市地区中，有 54 个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“在豪斯的数据中，匹兹堡 EXP Realty 的经纪人朱莉-韦尔特（Julie Welter）说：”卖家们都在说，'是时候了，让我们赚钱吧'。“随着世界重新开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适感”。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场距离正常还有很长的路要走，库存仍比一年前下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着东海岸到西海岸的竞购战爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致房源短缺的一个问题：卖家因为很难找到其他东西可以买而留在原地。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现可用的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中值同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得资产净值。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让卖家们不愿让购房者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛。Haus 首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林 (Ralph McLaughlin) 表示，一些人还渴望搬到新冠病毒让他们远离太久的家庭附近。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的 20% 股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的 Redfin 经纪人肖娜·彭德尔顿 (Shauna Pendleton) 表示，今年已有 35 名卖家与她谈论房产上市事宜。她说，这大约是 2020 年同期人数的两倍。Redfin 的数据显示，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区，6 月初房价同比上涨 42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“彭德尔顿谈到她的新卖家客户时说：”这些人大多是退休人员。“封锁让人们对自己想住在哪里有了全新的看法。他们想念家人”。</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>据 Haus 称，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从 5 月初的极低水平攀升了 30%，该地区不包括签约房屋数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）说，由于房价远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新房源不断增加，但房屋正在迅速找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计到今年年底美国房价增长率将放缓至10%以下。他说，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是如果借贷成本开始上升的话。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到 2023 年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”导致新供应的同样力量，可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的同样力量。“这主要是物价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋市场也可能趋于缓和。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。房屋建筑数据提供商和咨询公司 Zonda 的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫 (Ali Wolf) 表示，现在一些买家感受到了一点贴纸冲击。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5 月份调查的建筑商中，约 40% 的人将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于上个月的约 20%。她说，因此，新房市场已经从 “难以忍受 ”的火热变成了炙手可热。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理商正在通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty 的代理人亚历克斯·赖特 (Alex Wright) 表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经 60 多岁了，他们想搬到中西部，以便离她的祖母更近一些。奥斯汀已今非昔比。她说，这里的物价已经变得很贵，从玉米饼到咖啡，什么都要排队，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一套房子仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”竞争仍然非常激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149451535","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.\nThe number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.\n“Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”\nThe housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.\nThroughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.\nThe end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.\n“People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”\nShauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.\n“These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”\nThe Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.\nWith houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.\nCooling Prices\nMcLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.\n“The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”\nThe market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.\nAbout 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.\nIn Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.\nWright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.\nWright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.\n“It’s still crazy competitive,” she 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21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149451535","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，潜在的房屋卖家们一直紧张，他们终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台 Haus 的数据，6 月初美国待售房屋数量较 5 月份同一周攀升 6.7%。这是自去年 Covid-19 封锁以来的最大增幅。在所测量的 100 个大都市地区中，有 54 个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“在豪斯的数据中，匹兹堡 EXP Realty 的经纪人朱莉-韦尔特（Julie Welter）说：”卖家们都在说，'是时候了，让我们赚钱吧'。“随着世界重新开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适感”。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场距离正常还有很长的路要走，库存仍比一年前下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着东海岸到西海岸的竞购战爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致房源短缺的一个问题：卖家因为很难找到其他东西可以买而留在原地。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现可用的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中值同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得资产净值。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让卖家们不愿让购房者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛。Haus 首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林 (Ralph McLaughlin) 表示，一些人还渴望搬到新冠病毒让他们远离太久的家庭附近。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的 20% 股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的 Redfin 经纪人肖娜·彭德尔顿 (Shauna Pendleton) 表示，今年已有 35 名卖家与她谈论房产上市事宜。她说，这大约是 2020 年同期人数的两倍。Redfin 的数据显示，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区，6 月初房价同比上涨 42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“彭德尔顿谈到她的新卖家客户时说：”这些人大多是退休人员。“封锁让人们对自己想住在哪里有了全新的看法。他们想念家人”。</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>据 Haus 称，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从 5 月初的极低水平攀升了 30%，该地区不包括签约房屋数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）说，由于房价远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新房源不断增加，但房屋正在迅速找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计到今年年底美国房价增长率将放缓至10%以下。他说，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是如果借贷成本开始上升的话。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到 2023 年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”导致新供应的同样力量，可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的同样力量。“这主要是物价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋市场也可能趋于缓和。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。房屋建筑数据提供商和咨询公司 Zonda 的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫 (Ali Wolf) 表示，现在一些买家感受到了一点贴纸冲击。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5 月份调查的建筑商中，约 40% 的人将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于上个月的约 20%。她说，因此，新房市场已经从 “难以忍受 ”的火热变成了炙手可热。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理商正在通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty 的代理人亚历克斯·赖特 (Alex Wright) 表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经 60 多岁了，他们想搬到中西部，以便离她的祖母更近一些。奥斯汀已今非昔比。她说，这里的物价已经变得很贵，从玉米饼到咖啡，什么都要排队，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一套房子仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”竞争仍然非常激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，潜在的房屋卖家们一直紧张，他们终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台 Haus 的数据，6 月初美国待售房屋数量较 5 月份同一周攀升 6.7%。这是自去年 Covid-19 封锁以来的最大增幅。在所测量的 100 个大都市地区中，有 54 个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“在豪斯的数据中，匹兹堡 EXP Realty 的经纪人朱莉-韦尔特（Julie Welter）说：”卖家们都在说，'是时候了，让我们赚钱吧'。“随着世界重新开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适感”。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场距离正常还有很长的路要走，库存仍比一年前下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着东海岸到西海岸的竞购战爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致房源短缺的一个问题：卖家因为很难找到其他东西可以买而留在原地。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现可用的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中值同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得资产净值。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让卖家们不愿让购房者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛。Haus 首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林 (Ralph McLaughlin) 表示，一些人还渴望搬到新冠病毒让他们远离太久的家庭附近。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的 20% 股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的 Redfin 经纪人肖娜·彭德尔顿 (Shauna Pendleton) 表示，今年已有 35 名卖家与她谈论房产上市事宜。她说，这大约是 2020 年同期人数的两倍。Redfin 的数据显示，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区，6 月初房价同比上涨 42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“彭德尔顿谈到她的新卖家客户时说：”这些人大多是退休人员。“封锁让人们对自己想住在哪里有了全新的看法。他们想念家人”。</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>据 Haus 称，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从 5 月初的极低水平攀升了 30%，该地区不包括签约房屋数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）说，由于房价远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新房源不断增加，但房屋正在迅速找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计到今年年底美国房价增长率将放缓至10%以下。他说，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是如果借贷成本开始上升的话。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到 2023 年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”导致新供应的同样力量，可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的同样力量。“这主要是物价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋市场也可能趋于缓和。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。房屋建筑数据提供商和咨询公司 Zonda 的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫 (Ali Wolf) 表示，现在一些买家感受到了一点贴纸冲击。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5 月份调查的建筑商中，约 40% 的人将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于上个月的约 20%。她说，因此，新房市场已经从 “难以忍受 ”的火热变成了炙手可热。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理商正在通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty 的代理人亚历克斯·赖特 (Alex Wright) 表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经 60 多岁了，他们想搬到中西部，以便离她的祖母更近一些。奥斯汀已今非昔比。她说，这里的物价已经变得很贵，从玉米饼到咖啡，什么都要排队，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一套房子仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”竞争仍然非常激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149451535","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.\nThe number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.\n“Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”\nThe housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.\nThroughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.\nThe end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.\n“People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”\nShauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.\n“These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”\nThe Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.\nWith houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.\nCooling Prices\nMcLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.\n“The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”\nThe market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.\nAbout 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.\nIn Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.\nWright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.\nWright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.\n“It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161291633,"gmtCreate":1623927457622,"gmtModify":1634025792622,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161291633","repostId":"2144271757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186630861,"gmtCreate":1623489879653,"gmtModify":1634032416698,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186630861","repostId":"1117150461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186630359,"gmtCreate":1623489866071,"gmtModify":1634032416941,"author":{"id":"3582019662483806","authorId":"3582019662483806","name":"Tri12244","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582019662483806","authorIdStr":"3582019662483806"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Greay","listText":"&nbsp;Greay","text":"Greay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186630359","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什 (Michael Brush) 就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足够高的水平，足以撼动股市，可能导致高达 15% 的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并促使美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都将扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，将通货膨胀率推至5%的13年来新高。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的相反。在此之前，我们先来看看今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，10 年期国债收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% 升至 1.7%？好吧，期待重复。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观经济学家弗兰齐斯卡-帕尔马斯（Franziska Palmas）说：”我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。她的研究小组预计，到今年年底，10年期国债收益率为2.25%，到2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>这将比目前的 1.5% 水平有很大的进步。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Fed渐缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）淡化了央行缩减债券购买规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。联邦公开市场委员会是制定货币政策的美联储部门。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>“《预测市场》（Predicting the Markets）一书的作者、亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）负责人埃德-亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）说：”在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔将越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得'实质性进一步进展'。鲍威尔曾多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得 “实质性进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼预测：”鉴于经济的表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。缩减规模是指美联储减少债券购买。这收紧了货币供应，从而抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会在股市中引发 “缩减规模狂潮”，这意味着标普500 SPX 指数（+0.19%）、道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.04%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.35%）等指数将大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如何应对债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩可能导致的抛售时，要记住的关键是为什么这些事情会发生，以及历史告诉我们股票如何表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减收益率和不断上升的债券收益率会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但事实并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌，或者充其量是横盘波动。但随后随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了困境并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩政策的发生是有充分理由的，有助于企业——强劲的经济增长。这将收益推高很多，从而将估值重置为较低的水平——回到投资者感到舒适的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>“Leuthold 市场策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，让市场走高。这是一个健康的发展”。</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场烟火，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将把标普500的收益推至年底的220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，该指数的市盈率（P/E）将降至 18-19，接近或低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。“他说：”这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 不要采取“防御”策略</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的 “稳定”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取守势，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性的名字会带来收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也受到利率上升的打击，这会降低股息以及支付股息的股票和债券的价值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最好方法是将你的投资组合与过热的经济联系起来。这是利润增长和利润杠杆最好的地方，”保尔森说。“防守是得不到的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 选择受益于增长的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济快速增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着工业股、基础材料消费品、小盘股和国际股票等周期性股票。“保尔森说：”增长放缓的消费品和公用事业将跟不上市场的增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议 Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17% 和 Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在 2020 年 9 月和 2019 年 11 月温习股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。我仍然喜欢并拥有这两款产品，尽管它们分别上涨了 48% 和 157%，是标普500的两到四倍。最近的内部买入证实他们正在买入并持有当前水平附近。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。林德布拉德提供前往异国情调的专门邮轮探险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要出货</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购可能很有诱惑力。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握正确的时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼说：”你必须做出两个明智的决定。“你必须在纠错前下车，然后再决定什么时候回来。我不知道有多少人能坚持这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器经常出局后再也进不来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“保尔森说：”试图避免更正可能会给自己带来麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到 2% 或更高。因此，不要持有债券，因为当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌--除非你只是打算持有到期以获得收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 理财</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着 10 年期国债的长期利率上升速度比短期利率快得多。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年 8 月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通 JPM（-0.07%）和美国银行 BAC（+0.41%）的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得拥有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什 (Michael Brush) 就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足够高的水平，足以撼动股市，可能导致高达 15% 的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并促使美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都将扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，将通货膨胀率推至5%的13年来新高。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的相反。在此之前，我们先来看看今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，10 年期国债收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% 升至 1.7%？好吧，期待重复。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观经济学家弗兰齐斯卡-帕尔马斯（Franziska Palmas）说：”我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。她的研究小组预计，到今年年底，10年期国债收益率为2.25%，到2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>这将比目前的 1.5% 水平有很大的进步。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Fed渐缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）淡化了央行缩减债券购买规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。联邦公开市场委员会是制定货币政策的美联储部门。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>“《预测市场》（Predicting the Markets）一书的作者、亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）负责人埃德-亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）说：”在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔将越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得'实质性进一步进展'。鲍威尔曾多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得 “实质性进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼预测：”鉴于经济的表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。缩减规模是指美联储减少债券购买。这收紧了货币供应，从而抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会在股市中引发 “缩减规模狂潮”，这意味着标普500 SPX 指数（+0.19%）、道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.04%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.35%）等指数将大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如何应对债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩可能导致的抛售时，要记住的关键是为什么这些事情会发生，以及历史告诉我们股票如何表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减收益率和不断上升的债券收益率会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但事实并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌，或者充其量是横盘波动。但随后随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了困境并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩政策的发生是有充分理由的，有助于企业——强劲的经济增长。这将收益推高很多，从而将估值重置为较低的水平——回到投资者感到舒适的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>“Leuthold 市场策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，让市场走高。这是一个健康的发展”。</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场烟火，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将把标普500的收益推至年底的220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，该指数的市盈率（P/E）将降至 18-19，接近或低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。“他说：”这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 不要采取“防御”策略</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的 “稳定”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取守势，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性的名字会带来收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也受到利率上升的打击，这会降低股息以及支付股息的股票和债券的价值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最好方法是将你的投资组合与过热的经济联系起来。这是利润增长和利润杠杆最好的地方，”保尔森说。“防守是得不到的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 选择受益于增长的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济快速增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着工业股、基础材料消费品、小盘股和国际股票等周期性股票。“保尔森说：”增长放缓的消费品和公用事业将跟不上市场的增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议 Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17% 和 Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在 2020 年 9 月和 2019 年 11 月温习股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。我仍然喜欢并拥有这两款产品，尽管它们分别上涨了 48% 和 157%，是标普500的两到四倍。最近的内部买入证实他们正在买入并持有当前水平附近。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。林德布拉德提供前往异国情调的专门邮轮探险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要出货</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购可能很有诱惑力。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握正确的时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼说：”你必须做出两个明智的决定。“你必须在纠错前下车，然后再决定什么时候回来。我不知道有多少人能坚持这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器经常出局后再也进不来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“保尔森说：”试图避免更正可能会给自己带来麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到 2% 或更高。因此，不要持有债券，因为当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌--除非你只是打算持有到期以获得收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 理财</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着 10 年期国债的长期利率上升速度比短期利率快得多。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年 8 月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通 JPM（-0.07%）和美国银行 BAC（+0.41%）的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得拥有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}