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2021-07-09

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2021-06-21

Hello there! Nice to be here with other Tigermembers !

2021-06-15

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2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.<blockquote>雪花是一个增长巨头。华尔街正在考虑股票价值。</blockquote>

2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

I love tiger , comment and like

Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>

2021-06-12

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2021-06-11

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2021-06-10

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2021-06-08

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2021-06-04

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Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，什么可能会让它们再次移动</blockquote>

2021-06-04

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Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-01

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-31

Let’s go btc

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-29

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2021-05-28

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2021-05-27

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Nice to be here with other Tigermembers !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164243923","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184173613,"gmtCreate":1623693522432,"gmtModify":1631889813829,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment :)","listText":"Like and comment :)","text":"Like and comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184173613","repostId":"1109202972","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182242166,"gmtCreate":1623582641355,"gmtModify":1631889813840,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182242166","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182246156,"gmtCreate":1623582538175,"gmtModify":1631889813851,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182246156","repostId":"1189143522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189143522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623513679,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189143522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 00:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.<blockquote>雪花是一个增长巨头。华尔街正在考虑股票价值。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189143522","media":"Barron's","summary":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that h","content":"<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake 仍然是软件行业历史上最好的增长故事之一，这也让华尔街开始谈论该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p> In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p><p><blockquote>在周四与分析师的会议上， 这家云数据软件公司提出了一个雄心勃勃的目标， 即在 2029 年 1 月财年产品收入达到 100 亿美元。相比之下，2021 年 1 月财年为 5.54 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官 Mike Scarpelli 表示，届时 Snowflake（股票代码：SNOW）的营收仍应增长 30%，同时产生 10% 的营业利润率和 15% 或更高的自由现金流利润率。他还表示，该公司目前的潜在市场总额为 900 亿美元，比 2020 年 IPO 路演期间估计的 810 亿美元市场规模扩大了 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长目标有助于塑造 Snowflake 未来的巨大机遇，但并没有改变有关该股的基本争论：令人印象深刻的增长率（最近一年产品收入为 120%）是否证明了巨大的估值是合理的？周五下午交易中，股价下跌 4.4%，至 237.84 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity 分析师 David Hynes 指出，如果 Snowflake 达到 100 亿美元的目标，这将是软件公司达到该规模的最快速度。Hynes 补充说，由首席执行官 Frank Slootman 领导的管理团队的历史表明 Snowflake 可以提前实现目标。</blockquote></p><p> But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p><p><blockquote>但海因斯仍然坚持持有评级和 240 美元的目标价。“毫无疑问，这是一项特殊的业务，但在我们看来，该股目前的估值”--约是 2022 年预计收入的 47 倍--“充分反映了这一点”。他补充说，随着估值走高和股票横盘整理，他 “离升级越来越近了”，但还没有到那一步。“我们满足于等待更多的多余燃烧殆尽”。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p><p><blockquote>同样，摩根士丹利分析师基思·韦斯 (Keith Weiss) 在一份研究报告中写道，鉴于 2021 财年产品增长 120%，100 亿美元的目标可能比较保守。他补充说，“等式中更困难的部分可能是根据这些目标来证明估值的合理性”。Weiss 表示，Snowflake 提出的模型意味着 2029 财年将有 16 亿美元的自由现金流，这意味着该股 8 年后自由现金流的 51 倍。“他说，虽然市场机会.和雪花的机会给他留下了深刻的印象，”估值让他一直在观望。韦斯重申了他的同等权重评级和 270 美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. 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Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.<blockquote>雪花是一个增长巨头。华尔街正在考虑股票价值。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 00:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake 仍然是软件行业历史上最好的增长故事之一，这也让华尔街开始谈论该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p> In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p><p><blockquote>在周四与分析师的会议上， 这家云数据软件公司提出了一个雄心勃勃的目标， 即在 2029 年 1 月财年产品收入达到 100 亿美元。相比之下，2021 年 1 月财年为 5.54 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官 Mike Scarpelli 表示，届时 Snowflake（股票代码：SNOW）的营收仍应增长 30%，同时产生 10% 的营业利润率和 15% 或更高的自由现金流利润率。他还表示，该公司目前的潜在市场总额为 900 亿美元，比 2020 年 IPO 路演期间估计的 810 亿美元市场规模扩大了 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长目标有助于塑造 Snowflake 未来的巨大机遇，但并没有改变有关该股的基本争论：令人印象深刻的增长率（最近一年产品收入为 120%）是否证明了巨大的估值是合理的？周五下午交易中，股价下跌 4.4%，至 237.84 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity 分析师 David Hynes 指出，如果 Snowflake 达到 100 亿美元的目标，这将是软件公司达到该规模的最快速度。Hynes 补充说，由首席执行官 Frank Slootman 领导的管理团队的历史表明 Snowflake 可以提前实现目标。</blockquote></p><p> But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p><p><blockquote>但海因斯仍然坚持持有评级和 240 美元的目标价。“毫无疑问，这是一项特殊的业务，但在我们看来，该股目前的估值”--约是 2022 年预计收入的 47 倍--“充分反映了这一点”。他补充说，随着估值走高和股票横盘整理，他 “离升级越来越近了”，但还没有到那一步。“我们满足于等待更多的多余燃烧殆尽”。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p><p><blockquote>同样，摩根士丹利分析师基思·韦斯 (Keith Weiss) 在一份研究报告中写道，鉴于 2021 财年产品增长 120%，100 亿美元的目标可能比较保守。他补充说，“等式中更困难的部分可能是根据这些目标来证明估值的合理性”。Weiss 表示，Snowflake 提出的模型意味着 2029 财年将有 16 亿美元的自由现金流，这意味着该股 8 年后自由现金流的 51 倍。“他说，虽然市场机会.和雪花的机会给他留下了深刻的印象，”估值让他一直在观望。韦斯重申了他的同等权重评级和 270 美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189143522","content_text":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.\nSnowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.\nThe long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.\nCanaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.\nBut Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”\nLikewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182246910,"gmtCreate":1623582521630,"gmtModify":1631889813864,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182246910","repostId":"1143408374","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182249557,"gmtCreate":1623582159979,"gmtModify":1631889813874,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I love tiger , comment and like","listText":"I love tiger , comment and like","text":"I love tiger , comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182249557","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDCE":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188265975,"gmtCreate":1623449682497,"gmtModify":1631889813884,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188265975","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181107450,"gmtCreate":1623376896470,"gmtModify":1631889813895,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181107450","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183868305,"gmtCreate":1623322427507,"gmtModify":1631889813910,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment thanks","listText":"Like n comment thanks","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183868305","repostId":"2142240099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117507249,"gmtCreate":1623148242081,"gmtModify":1634036452268,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment !","listText":"Like and comment !","text":"Like and comment !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117507249","repostId":"1136550999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116505771,"gmtCreate":1622809309593,"gmtModify":1634097817197,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116505771","repostId":"2140033314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140033314","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622807843,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2140033314?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 19:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，什么可能会让它们再次移动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140033314","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a move great","content":"<p>Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&amp;P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.</p><p><blockquote>就像弹球卡在机器里一样，市场已经被卡住了。标普500在过去连续七个交易日的两个方向上的涨幅都没有超过 0.4%。如果股市在今年剩余时间内休市，标普500上涨 12% 当然不会是一个糟糕的结果，但值得研究一下为什么现在波动如此之小。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services purchasing managers index released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>可能值得关注所有证券的基准资产，即 10 年期国债。在从 1% 以下飙升至高达 1.78% 之后，10 年期国债收益率有所波动。尽管有耸人听闻的经济数据，包括 IHS 上记录的 70 读数<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">市场</a>周四发布的服务采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p> The Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.</p><p><blockquote>银行交易机构国际金融协会表示，目前的情况是市场相信美联储。特别是，他们认为美联储的平均通胀目标计划正在锚定长期收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Compared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.</p><p><blockquote>与 2013 年缩减规模的恐慌相比，以罗宾·布鲁克斯 (Robin Brooks) 为首的 IIF 经济学家表示，值得注意的是，美联储加息的次数很少。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd30fb56f2308cff6d736af7a45d4\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，出人意料的疲软 4 月份就业报告令人惊讶，这是一个 8 个标准差的惊喜，但它对债券向任何方向移动都没有什么作用。他们表示：“为了打破 10 年期的僵局，就业数据需要显示劳动力市场复苏的真正进展，而劳动力市场复苏仍然悬而未决。”</blockquote></p><p> The IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.</p><p><blockquote>IIF驳斥了中国信贷增长放缓是市场停滞的真正原因的观点。“这种冲动甚至与中国的GDP无关，更不用说全球活动了，”他们说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，什么可能会让它们再次移动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，什么可能会让它们再次移动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 19:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&amp;P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.</p><p><blockquote>就像弹球卡在机器里一样，市场已经被卡住了。标普500在过去连续七个交易日的两个方向上的涨幅都没有超过 0.4%。如果股市在今年剩余时间内休市，标普500上涨 12% 当然不会是一个糟糕的结果，但值得研究一下为什么现在波动如此之小。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services purchasing managers index released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>可能值得关注所有证券的基准资产，即 10 年期国债。在从 1% 以下飙升至高达 1.78% 之后，10 年期国债收益率有所波动。尽管有耸人听闻的经济数据，包括 IHS 上记录的 70 读数<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">市场</a>周四发布的服务采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p> The Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.</p><p><blockquote>银行交易机构国际金融协会表示，目前的情况是市场相信美联储。特别是，他们认为美联储的平均通胀目标计划正在锚定长期收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Compared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.</p><p><blockquote>与 2013 年缩减规模的恐慌相比，以罗宾·布鲁克斯 (Robin Brooks) 为首的 IIF 经济学家表示，值得注意的是，美联储加息的次数很少。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd30fb56f2308cff6d736af7a45d4\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，出人意料的疲软 4 月份就业报告令人惊讶，这是一个 8 个标准差的惊喜，但它对债券向任何方向移动都没有什么作用。他们表示：“为了打破 10 年期的僵局，就业数据需要显示劳动力市场复苏的真正进展，而劳动力市场复苏仍然悬而未决。”</blockquote></p><p> The IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.</p><p><blockquote>IIF驳斥了中国信贷增长放缓是市场停滞的真正原因的观点。“这种冲动甚至与中国的GDP无关，更不用说全球活动了，”他们说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-have-been-stuck-and-what-might-get-them-moving-again-11622802791?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-have-been-stuck-and-what-might-get-them-moving-again-11622802791?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140033314","content_text":"Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.\nIt might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS Markit services purchasing managers index released Thursday.\nThe Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.\nCompared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.\n\nThe surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.\nThe IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116502118,"gmtCreate":1622809233234,"gmtModify":1634097818750,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n&nbsp;comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n&nbsp;comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116502118","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但未来十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果在过去十年中增长放缓，未来几年也不太可能成为增长怪物。</li><li>股票具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能不会一样。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，十年后苹果的股价可能仍会大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前的股票回报率为 900%，年复合回报率约为 26%，轻松超过了该时期大盘的回报率。重要的是，股价的涨幅远远超过了公司的市值，而公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了 550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅降低了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个非常成功的商业时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的崛起，同时在手表和平板电脑等新产品方面也取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新的产品类别推出。目前，股价为 125 美元，比过去 12 个月上涨了 57%，但 2021 年迄今下跌了 6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整模式，这并不奇怪，因为苹果的估值在最近的过去扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前一致的目标价为 156 美元，这意味着上涨潜力为 25%。由于目前没有迹象表明股票会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票10年后会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，2031年苹果的股价是无法精确预测的。历史一次又一次地表明，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以制定情景，看看在特定条件下未来股价可能会处于什么位置，以了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了制定这样一个场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去经历了几年的强劲增长和几年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的实力，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也起着一定的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了 154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。在2010年代初，苹果在iPhone“胜利之路”的支持下实现了巨大的增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长放缓得多。甚至有一些年份收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年非常强劲的增长推动了这一增长时，假设苹果未来每年也将增长10%可能不太合理。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在苹果产品价格上涨以及在中国等高增长国家市场份额增长潜力的背景下，越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格更高的产品，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致应用程序支出增加——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像 iPhone 那样大规模），苹果应该能够以坚实的速度发展其业务。我个人认为，未来几年5%-7%的收入增长率可能是一个现实的估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅降低其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了 36% 的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股份在公司价值中所占份额将增长 56%，即年化增长 4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年仅将其股票数量减少了 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股份数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至 25% 时，当我们查看每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约 3% 的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我 5%-7% 的业务增长预期，我因此假设苹果从长远来看每股将增长 8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 过去的估值范围非常广泛，其股票交易倍数在某些时候非常低，而投资者则愿意在其他时候支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的 10 倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，到 2020 年底，股价交易价格高达公司净利润的 40 倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL 的历史市盈率为 28 倍，远期利润约为 24 倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去 3 年、5 年、7 年和 10 年的中位数收益倍数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期间，中值更高。我不相信 AAPL 的交易价格会达到过去十年平均净利润的 15.5 倍，因为对于苹果这样一家拥有强大品牌、庞大规模、巨大利润和堡垒资产负债表的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。另一方面，我也不相信苹果会永远以 24-28 倍的市盈率进行交易——对于一家以中个位数实现稳健但并不引人注目的业务增长的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，情况尤其如此，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力，而其他条件相同。因此，我认为 2031 年净利润 20 倍左右的估值可能是一个合理的估计，这或多或少与 3 年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从 2021 年每股收益估计值 5.15 美元开始计算，并假设到 2031 年每年增长 7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为 10.10 美元至 13.40 美元。将 20 倍市盈率放在该市盈率上，目标价约为每股 200-270 美元。因此，在 235 美元左右的中点，股价将比当前水平上涨约 90%，即年化上涨约 6.5%。这当然不是一个糟糕的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的大回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，AAPL 在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报不太兴奋。当我们考虑到如果苹果估值下降（例如由于利率上升），未来1-3年内股价确实存在相当大的下行风险时，暂时保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现得很好。目前，我将苹果评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能会买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意，更喜欢在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说股票在未来十年确实具有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但未来十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果在过去十年中增长放缓，未来几年也不太可能成为增长怪物。</li><li>股票具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能不会一样。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，十年后苹果的股价可能仍会大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前的股票回报率为 900%，年复合回报率约为 26%，轻松超过了该时期大盘的回报率。重要的是，股价的涨幅远远超过了公司的市值，而公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了 550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅降低了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个非常成功的商业时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的崛起，同时在手表和平板电脑等新产品方面也取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新的产品类别推出。目前，股价为 125 美元，比过去 12 个月上涨了 57%，但 2021 年迄今下跌了 6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整模式，这并不奇怪，因为苹果的估值在最近的过去扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前一致的目标价为 156 美元，这意味着上涨潜力为 25%。由于目前没有迹象表明股票会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票10年后会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，2031年苹果的股价是无法精确预测的。历史一次又一次地表明，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以制定情景，看看在特定条件下未来股价可能会处于什么位置，以了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了制定这样一个场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去经历了几年的强劲增长和几年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的实力，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也起着一定的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了 154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。在2010年代初，苹果在iPhone“胜利之路”的支持下实现了巨大的增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长放缓得多。甚至有一些年份收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年非常强劲的增长推动了这一增长时，假设苹果未来每年也将增长10%可能不太合理。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在苹果产品价格上涨以及在中国等高增长国家市场份额增长潜力的背景下，越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格更高的产品，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致应用程序支出增加——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像 iPhone 那样大规模），苹果应该能够以坚实的速度发展其业务。我个人认为，未来几年5%-7%的收入增长率可能是一个现实的估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅降低其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了 36% 的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股份在公司价值中所占份额将增长 56%，即年化增长 4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年仅将其股票数量减少了 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股份数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至 25% 时，当我们查看每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约 3% 的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我 5%-7% 的业务增长预期，我因此假设苹果从长远来看每股将增长 8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 过去的估值范围非常广泛，其股票交易倍数在某些时候非常低，而投资者则愿意在其他时候支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的 10 倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，到 2020 年底，股价交易价格高达公司净利润的 40 倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL 的历史市盈率为 28 倍，远期利润约为 24 倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去 3 年、5 年、7 年和 10 年的中位数收益倍数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期间，中值更高。我不相信 AAPL 的交易价格会达到过去十年平均净利润的 15.5 倍，因为对于苹果这样一家拥有强大品牌、庞大规模、巨大利润和堡垒资产负债表的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。另一方面，我也不相信苹果会永远以 24-28 倍的市盈率进行交易——对于一家以中个位数实现稳健但并不引人注目的业务增长的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，情况尤其如此，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力，而其他条件相同。因此，我认为 2031 年净利润 20 倍左右的估值可能是一个合理的估计，这或多或少与 3 年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从 2021 年每股收益估计值 5.15 美元开始计算，并假设到 2031 年每年增长 7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为 10.10 美元至 13.40 美元。将 20 倍市盈率放在该市盈率上，目标价约为每股 200-270 美元。因此，在 235 美元左右的中点，股价将比当前水平上涨约 90%，即年化上涨约 6.5%。这当然不是一个糟糕的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的大回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，AAPL 在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报不太兴奋。当我们考虑到如果苹果估值下降（例如由于利率上升），未来1-3年内股价确实存在相当大的下行风险时，暂时保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现得很好。目前，我将苹果评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能会买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意，更喜欢在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说股票在未来十年确实具有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119337180,"gmtCreate":1622518658840,"gmtModify":1634100875225,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119337180","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110658549,"gmtCreate":1622451537681,"gmtModify":1634101380656,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110658549","repostId":"1198461252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110808064,"gmtCreate":1622435338558,"gmtModify":1634101486506,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let’s go btc","listText":"Let’s go btc","text":"Let’s go btc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110808064","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137728943,"gmtCreate":1622399262782,"gmtModify":1634101844509,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n 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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137380527","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135453084,"gmtCreate":1622178431148,"gmtModify":1634183083910,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132667586","repostId":"2138149518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188265975,"gmtCreate":1623449682497,"gmtModify":1631889813884,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188265975","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190305325,"gmtCreate":1620583084767,"gmtModify":1634197935440,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Respond to my comment thanks I will do thesame for u","listText":"Respond to my comment thanks I will do thesame for u","text":"Respond to my comment thanks I will do thesame for u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190305325","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110658549,"gmtCreate":1622451537681,"gmtModify":1634101380656,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110658549","repostId":"1198461252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133270848,"gmtCreate":1621760010284,"gmtModify":1634186721610,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133270848","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133338269,"gmtCreate":1621695840851,"gmtModify":1634187100592,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Reply to my comment pls thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Reply to my comment pls thanks&nbsp;","text":"Reply to my comment pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133338269","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193405340,"gmtCreate":1620805863280,"gmtModify":1634196162935,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193405340","repostId":"1195374535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195374535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620805173,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195374535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195374535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the","content":"<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数字，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心（不是高得多的总体）价格首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧（他们可以将这些上涨的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭日益确信价格上涨将持续下去，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，消费者预计明年汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格上涨5.93%，租金价格上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶预计，中期内物价将呈小幅上涨趋势，最终将持续超过美联储的目标（而且是在充分就业的环境下），从而有必要加息，可能要到 2023 年下半年才会加息。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不认同，尤其是债券市场，交易员正在为更高的通胀和更快的美联储加息定价。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍达德（Jared Woodard）指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早就发生了：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这次会有所不同？正如伍达德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久性上升或有害的人来说，挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。对此，美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果不是，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计将出现长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速修复（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈可以解决。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情所必需的，还是供应链向可靠民主国家重新定位所必需的，资本支出较高的时期都应该是可以容忍的。许多公司已经证明了定价权，第一季度美国企业利润率创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工人稀缺</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何急剧飙升都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将急剧上升。</li><li>丰厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将重返公立学校，</li><li>健康问题将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘。</li></ul>事实上，我们有 980 万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计到秋季将有 200 多万失业工人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登失业救济金将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道……</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”……尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行的银行家没有薪酬会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，工资增长的长期趋势更高将对国内生产总值和生产率产生积极影响： 在杜克大学最新的首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，有三分之二的公司表示这是因为他们 “没有必要扩大产能”。持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，甚至很难想象工资螺旋式上升的尾部风险。<b>需要10-12%的稳定工资增长才能将通货膨胀推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今美国经济的结构已经大不相同。非精英工会在政治上没有牙齿。技术渗透到每个行业。更多服务的外包即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过剩需求</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有过度需求的迹象。美国银行的最新消费者似乎证实了 “财政流动性陷阱 ”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有多余储蓄，但历史表明他们不会消费；由于更高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021 年高收入支出更有可能出现寒流；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍达德总结道，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长适度（无论如何都是有帮助的长期），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>废话，你说。在数万亿美元的刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通货膨胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，将投资组合永久分配给通货膨胀资产只会损害回报（与通货紧缩偏差不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通货膨胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG 公司债券、国债、美国成长型股票和标普500的配置价值 104 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为 3.6%。在过去 30 年中，有五次 CPI 飙升至该水平以上（2001 年 5 月、2005 年 9 月、2006 年 6 月、2007 年 10 月、2011 年 6 月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，利用这些触发因素购买通胀资产的投资者在接下来的一年里遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与增长-2%，欧盟与美国股市-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有 TIPS 和 small vs large 的平均回报为正。如今，10 年期 TIPS 收益率为 -0.93%，距历史低点仅 19 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>最后，Woodard写道，“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次 “自然 ”衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经达到 13 年来的高点时。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认它是在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛弃，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀看起来像公园里的散步……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数字，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心（不是高得多的总体）价格首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧（他们可以将这些上涨的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭日益确信价格上涨将持续下去，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，消费者预计明年汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格上涨5.93%，租金价格上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶预计，中期内物价将呈小幅上涨趋势，最终将持续超过美联储的目标（而且是在充分就业的环境下），从而有必要加息，可能要到 2023 年下半年才会加息。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不认同，尤其是债券市场，交易员正在为更高的通胀和更快的美联储加息定价。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍达德（Jared Woodard）指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早就发生了：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这次会有所不同？正如伍达德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久性上升或有害的人来说，挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。对此，美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果不是，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计将出现长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速修复（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈可以解决。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情所必需的，还是供应链向可靠民主国家重新定位所必需的，资本支出较高的时期都应该是可以容忍的。许多公司已经证明了定价权，第一季度美国企业利润率创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工人稀缺</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何急剧飙升都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将急剧上升。</li><li>丰厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将重返公立学校，</li><li>健康问题将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘。</li></ul>事实上，我们有 980 万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计到秋季将有 200 多万失业工人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登失业救济金将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道……</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”……尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行的银行家没有薪酬会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，工资增长的长期趋势更高将对国内生产总值和生产率产生积极影响： 在杜克大学最新的首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，有三分之二的公司表示这是因为他们 “没有必要扩大产能”。持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，甚至很难想象工资螺旋式上升的尾部风险。<b>需要10-12%的稳定工资增长才能将通货膨胀推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今美国经济的结构已经大不相同。非精英工会在政治上没有牙齿。技术渗透到每个行业。更多服务的外包即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过剩需求</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有过度需求的迹象。美国银行的最新消费者似乎证实了 “财政流动性陷阱 ”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有多余储蓄，但历史表明他们不会消费；由于更高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021 年高收入支出更有可能出现寒流；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍达德总结道，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长适度（无论如何都是有帮助的长期），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>废话，你说。在数万亿美元的刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通货膨胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，将投资组合永久分配给通货膨胀资产只会损害回报（与通货紧缩偏差不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通货膨胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG 公司债券、国债、美国成长型股票和标普500的配置价值 104 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为 3.6%。在过去 30 年中，有五次 CPI 飙升至该水平以上（2001 年 5 月、2005 年 9 月、2006 年 6 月、2007 年 10 月、2011 年 6 月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，利用这些触发因素购买通胀资产的投资者在接下来的一年里遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与增长-2%，欧盟与美国股市-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有 TIPS 和 small vs large 的平均回报为正。如今，10 年期 TIPS 收益率为 -0.93%，距历史低点仅 19 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>最后，Woodard写道，“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次 “自然 ”衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经达到 13 年来的高点时。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认它是在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛弃，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀看起来像公园里的散步……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195374535","content_text":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...... and consumers (who can't).Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.1. Scarce goodsIn 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.Scarce workersWoodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:Labor supply is set to rise sharply.Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,children will return to public schools,health concerns will be alleviated,firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues thatit would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s & 80s......and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.Excess demandThe last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and <10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -  was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&P 500 was worth $104.Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181107450,"gmtCreate":1623376896470,"gmtModify":1631889813895,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181107450","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133095285,"gmtCreate":1621665377147,"gmtModify":1634187255196,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment thanks","listText":"Like n comment thanks","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133095285","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139077291,"gmtCreate":1621580442013,"gmtModify":1634187912957,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy aapl? :D like and comment pls","listText":"Buy aapl? :D like and comment pls","text":"Buy aapl? :D like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139077291","repostId":"1146570916","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146570916","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621579990,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146570916?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy Apple Stock Because Strong iPhone Demand Is Good News for All Its Products<blockquote>购买苹果股票，因为强劲的 iPhone 需求对其所有产品来说都是好消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146570916","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G hand","content":"<p>Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G handset lineup remains remarkably strong.</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在已经进入 iPhone 12 时代六个多月了，对该公司首个 5G 手机系列的需求仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note Thursday, UBS analyst David Vogt notes that a survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany and Japan found that 22% intend to buy iPhones within the next 12 months, the highest reading in five years.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt在周四的一份研究报告中指出，对美国、英国、中国、德国和日本7000多名智能手机用户的调查发现，22%的人打算在未来12个月内购买iPhone，这是五年来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, iPhone retention rates—the number of people who intend to stay on the platform when they switch phones—reached 86%, the best reading in seven years. Interest in 5G wireless is “modestly improved,” he writes, consistent with Apple’s view that we are in the early days of 5G adoption. As a result, Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) current stock price “does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>此外，iPhone 保留率（即在更换手机时打算留在该平台上的人数）达到了 86%，这是七年来的最佳读数。他写道，人们对 5G 无线的兴趣 “略有提高”，这与苹果的观点一致，即我们正处于 5G 采用的早期阶段。因此，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）目前的股价 “并不能反映苹果生态系统的粘性”，他说。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt adds that every region showed a “solid” year-over-year increase in iPhone purchase intent, other than China, which was flat. He sees iPhone units sales of 225 million in the September 2021 fiscal year, and 220 million for fiscal 2022, consistent with overall buy-side estimates.</p><p><blockquote>沃格特补充说，除中国外，每个地区的 iPhone 购买意向都出现了 “稳健 ”的同比增长。他预计 2021 年 9 月财年 iPhone 销量为 2.25 亿部，2022 财年为 2.2 亿部，与买方的整体预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analyst also stresses that strong iPhone demand has spillover effects on other Apple products and services. The survey also asked about the&nbsp;Apple Watch. About 37% of respondents said they were likely or somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch over the next 12 months, while 80% were aware of the Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>这位瑞银分析师还强调，强劲的 iPhone 需求会对其他苹果产品和服务产生溢出效应。调查还询问了苹果手表。约37%的受访者表示，他们可能或有点可能在未来12个月内购买智能手表，而80%的受访者知道苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt maintains his Buy rating and $155 price target. He says the target reflects a value for “core” Apple of $141, plus $14 to account for the “probability-weighted” potential for an Apple car.</p><p><blockquote>Vogt 维持买入评级和 155 美元的目标价。他说，这一目标反映了 “核心 ”苹果的价值为 141 美元，再加上 14 美元，以说明苹果汽车的 “概率加权 ”潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock rose 2.1% to $127.31 on Thursday. The stock is down about 4% year to date, after an 81% rally in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周四上涨 2.1%，至 127.31 美元。继 2020 年上涨 81% 之后，该股今年迄今已下跌约 4%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Apple Stock Because Strong iPhone Demand Is Good News for All Its Products<blockquote>购买苹果股票，因为强劲的 iPhone 需求对其所有产品来说都是好消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Apple Stock Because Strong iPhone Demand Is Good News for All Its Products<blockquote>购买苹果股票，因为强劲的 iPhone 需求对其所有产品来说都是好消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 14:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G handset lineup remains remarkably strong.</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在已经进入 iPhone 12 时代六个多月了，对该公司首个 5G 手机系列的需求仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note Thursday, UBS analyst David Vogt notes that a survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany and Japan found that 22% intend to buy iPhones within the next 12 months, the highest reading in five years.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt在周四的一份研究报告中指出，对美国、英国、中国、德国和日本7000多名智能手机用户的调查发现，22%的人打算在未来12个月内购买iPhone，这是五年来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, iPhone retention rates—the number of people who intend to stay on the platform when they switch phones—reached 86%, the best reading in seven years. Interest in 5G wireless is “modestly improved,” he writes, consistent with Apple’s view that we are in the early days of 5G adoption. As a result, Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) current stock price “does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>此外，iPhone 保留率（即在更换手机时打算留在该平台上的人数）达到了 86%，这是七年来的最佳读数。他写道，人们对 5G 无线的兴趣 “略有提高”，这与苹果的观点一致，即我们正处于 5G 采用的早期阶段。因此，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）目前的股价 “并不能反映苹果生态系统的粘性”，他说。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt adds that every region showed a “solid” year-over-year increase in iPhone purchase intent, other than China, which was flat. He sees iPhone units sales of 225 million in the September 2021 fiscal year, and 220 million for fiscal 2022, consistent with overall buy-side estimates.</p><p><blockquote>沃格特补充说，除中国外，每个地区的 iPhone 购买意向都出现了 “稳健 ”的同比增长。他预计 2021 年 9 月财年 iPhone 销量为 2.25 亿部，2022 财年为 2.2 亿部，与买方的整体预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analyst also stresses that strong iPhone demand has spillover effects on other Apple products and services. The survey also asked about the&nbsp;Apple Watch. About 37% of respondents said they were likely or somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch over the next 12 months, while 80% were aware of the Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>这位瑞银分析师还强调，强劲的 iPhone 需求会对其他苹果产品和服务产生溢出效应。调查还询问了苹果手表。约37%的受访者表示，他们可能或有点可能在未来12个月内购买智能手表，而80%的受访者知道苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt maintains his Buy rating and $155 price target. He says the target reflects a value for “core” Apple of $141, plus $14 to account for the “probability-weighted” potential for an Apple car.</p><p><blockquote>Vogt 维持买入评级和 155 美元的目标价。他说，这一目标反映了 “核心 ”苹果的价值为 141 美元，再加上 14 美元，以说明苹果汽车的 “概率加权 ”潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock rose 2.1% to $127.31 on Thursday. The stock is down about 4% year to date, after an 81% rally in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周四上涨 2.1%，至 127.31 美元。继 2020 年上涨 81% 之后，该股今年迄今已下跌约 4%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-apple-stock-iphone-12-demand-51621535848?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-apple-stock-iphone-12-demand-51621535848?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146570916","content_text":"Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G handset lineup remains remarkably strong.\nIn a research note Thursday, UBS analyst David Vogt notes that a survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany and Japan found that 22% intend to buy iPhones within the next 12 months, the highest reading in five years.\nIn addition, iPhone retention rates—the number of people who intend to stay on the platform when they switch phones—reached 86%, the best reading in seven years. Interest in 5G wireless is “modestly improved,” he writes, consistent with Apple’s view that we are in the early days of 5G adoption. As a result, Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) current stock price “does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem,” he says.\nVogt adds that every region showed a “solid” year-over-year increase in iPhone purchase intent, other than China, which was flat. He sees iPhone units sales of 225 million in the September 2021 fiscal year, and 220 million for fiscal 2022, consistent with overall buy-side estimates.\nThe UBS analyst also stresses that strong iPhone demand has spillover effects on other Apple products and services. The survey also asked about the Apple Watch. About 37% of respondents said they were likely or somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch over the next 12 months, while 80% were aware of the Apple Watch.\nVogt maintains his Buy rating and $155 price target. He says the target reflects a value for “core” Apple of $141, plus $14 to account for the “probability-weighted” potential for an Apple car.\nApple stock rose 2.1% to $127.31 on Thursday. The stock is down about 4% year to date, after an 81% rally in 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193405759,"gmtCreate":1620805925671,"gmtModify":1634196162460,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582026584233746","authorIdStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193405759","repostId":"1195374535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195374535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620805173,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195374535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195374535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the","content":"<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数字，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心（不是高得多的总体）价格首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧（他们可以将这些上涨的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭日益确信价格上涨将持续下去，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，消费者预计明年汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格上涨5.93%，租金价格上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶预计，中期内物价将呈小幅上涨趋势，最终将持续超过美联储的目标（而且是在充分就业的环境下），从而有必要加息，可能要到 2023 年下半年才会加息。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不认同，尤其是债券市场，交易员正在为更高的通胀和更快的美联储加息定价。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍达德（Jared Woodard）指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早就发生了：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这次会有所不同？正如伍达德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久性上升或有害的人来说，挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。对此，美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果不是，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计将出现长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速修复（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈可以解决。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情所必需的，还是供应链向可靠民主国家重新定位所必需的，资本支出较高的时期都应该是可以容忍的。许多公司已经证明了定价权，第一季度美国企业利润率创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工人稀缺</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何急剧飙升都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将急剧上升。</li><li>丰厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将重返公立学校，</li><li>健康问题将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘。</li></ul>事实上，我们有 980 万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计到秋季将有 200 多万失业工人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登失业救济金将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道……</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”……尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行的银行家没有薪酬会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，工资增长的长期趋势更高将对国内生产总值和生产率产生积极影响： 在杜克大学最新的首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，有三分之二的公司表示这是因为他们 “没有必要扩大产能”。持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，甚至很难想象工资螺旋式上升的尾部风险。<b>需要10-12%的稳定工资增长才能将通货膨胀推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今美国经济的结构已经大不相同。非精英工会在政治上没有牙齿。技术渗透到每个行业。更多服务的外包即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过剩需求</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有过度需求的迹象。美国银行的最新消费者似乎证实了 “财政流动性陷阱 ”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有多余储蓄，但历史表明他们不会消费；由于更高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021 年高收入支出更有可能出现寒流；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍达德总结道，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长适度（无论如何都是有帮助的长期），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>废话，你说。在数万亿美元的刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通货膨胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，将投资组合永久分配给通货膨胀资产只会损害回报（与通货紧缩偏差不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通货膨胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG 公司债券、国债、美国成长型股票和标普500的配置价值 104 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为 3.6%。在过去 30 年中，有五次 CPI 飙升至该水平以上（2001 年 5 月、2005 年 9 月、2006 年 6 月、2007 年 10 月、2011 年 6 月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，利用这些触发因素购买通胀资产的投资者在接下来的一年里遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与增长-2%，欧盟与美国股市-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有 TIPS 和 small vs large 的平均回报为正。如今，10 年期 TIPS 收益率为 -0.93%，距历史低点仅 19 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>最后，Woodard写道，“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次 “自然 ”衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经达到 13 年来的高点时。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认它是在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛弃，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀看起来像公园里的散步……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数字，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心（不是高得多的总体）价格首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧（他们可以将这些上涨的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭日益确信价格上涨将持续下去，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，消费者预计明年汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格上涨5.93%，租金价格上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶预计，中期内物价将呈小幅上涨趋势，最终将持续超过美联储的目标（而且是在充分就业的环境下），从而有必要加息，可能要到 2023 年下半年才会加息。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不认同，尤其是债券市场，交易员正在为更高的通胀和更快的美联储加息定价。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍达德（Jared Woodard）指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早就发生了：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这次会有所不同？正如伍达德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久性上升或有害的人来说，挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。对此，美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果不是，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计将出现长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速修复（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈可以解决。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情所必需的，还是供应链向可靠民主国家重新定位所必需的，资本支出较高的时期都应该是可以容忍的。许多公司已经证明了定价权，第一季度美国企业利润率创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工人稀缺</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何急剧飙升都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将急剧上升。</li><li>丰厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将重返公立学校，</li><li>健康问题将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘。</li></ul>事实上，我们有 980 万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计到秋季将有 200 多万失业工人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登失业救济金将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道……</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”……尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行的银行家没有薪酬会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，工资增长的长期趋势更高将对国内生产总值和生产率产生积极影响： 在杜克大学最新的首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，有三分之二的公司表示这是因为他们 “没有必要扩大产能”。持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，甚至很难想象工资螺旋式上升的尾部风险。<b>需要10-12%的稳定工资增长才能将通货膨胀推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今美国经济的结构已经大不相同。非精英工会在政治上没有牙齿。技术渗透到每个行业。更多服务的外包即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过剩需求</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有过度需求的迹象。美国银行的最新消费者似乎证实了 “财政流动性陷阱 ”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有多余储蓄，但历史表明他们不会消费；由于更高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021 年高收入支出更有可能出现寒流；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍达德总结道，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长适度（无论如何都是有帮助的长期），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>废话，你说。在数万亿美元的刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通货膨胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，将投资组合永久分配给通货膨胀资产只会损害回报（与通货紧缩偏差不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通货膨胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG 公司债券、国债、美国成长型股票和标普500的配置价值 104 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为 3.6%。在过去 30 年中，有五次 CPI 飙升至该水平以上（2001 年 5 月、2005 年 9 月、2006 年 6 月、2007 年 10 月、2011 年 6 月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，利用这些触发因素购买通胀资产的投资者在接下来的一年里遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与增长-2%，欧盟与美国股市-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有 TIPS 和 small vs large 的平均回报为正。如今，10 年期 TIPS 收益率为 -0.93%，距历史低点仅 19 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>最后，Woodard写道，“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次 “自然 ”衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经达到 13 年来的高点时。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认它是在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛弃，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀看起来像公园里的散步……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195374535","content_text":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...... and consumers (who can't).Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.1. Scarce goodsIn 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.Scarce workersWoodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:Labor supply is set to rise sharply.Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,children will return to public schools,health concerns will be alleviated,firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues thatit would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s & 80s......and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.Excess demandThe last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and <10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -  was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&P 500 was worth $104.Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}