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2021-12-02

?

Cash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>

2021-10-20

Reasons?

Cash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>

2021-10-18

Good question :-)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Says Group's Debt Investment Has No Direct Exposure To China Evergrande<blockquote>扬子江造船表示，集团的债务投资与中国恒大没有直接关系</blockquote>

2021-10-02

Travel stocks should fly if there is an effective medicine

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-01

Have to reduce leverage and more selective.

Stocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>

2021-09-22

Is this drug effective? I thought results was mixed?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-21

May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?

Here's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote>

2021-09-20

If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-13

If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-11

Just make sure we do not over leverage

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-10

1% success rate is super low :-(

Day Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote>

2021-09-08

$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$Think prospect should be good for the mgmt co

2021-09-08

Speculative play

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse

Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>

2021-09-08

The moment a Mathematician come out with an efficient method of mining Bitcoin then the price will collapse

Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Buy only what you know

3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>

2021-09-04

Not sure will last?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-03

A lot of China tech stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen

Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Kept buying back - price should go up

抱歉，原内容已删除

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19:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>CASH Financial Services Group Ltd &lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>现金金融服务集团有限公司&lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit于公开市场以1,450万港元出售26,000股腾讯控股股份。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2176171528","content_text":"CASH Financial Services Group Ltd <0510.HK>:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-19 19:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>CASH Financial Services Group Ltd &lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>现金金融服务集团有限公司&lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit于公开市场以1,450万港元出售26,000股腾讯控股股份。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2176171528","content_text":"CASH Financial Services Group Ltd <0510.HK>:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 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Portfolio.</yazg.si></p><p><blockquote><html><body>扬子江船舶控股有限公司<yazg.si>：本集团的债务投资并无直接风险<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">中国恒大集团</a>..房地产行业占本集团债务组合的26%。</yazg.si></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Says Group's Debt Investment Has No Direct Exposure To China Evergrande<blockquote>扬子江造船表示，集团的债务投资与中国恒大没有直接关系</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYangzijiang Shipbuilding Says Group's Debt Investment Has No Direct Exposure To China Evergrande<blockquote>扬子江造船表示，集团的债务投资与中国恒大没有直接关系</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-24 17:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd <yazg.si>:Group'S Debt Investment Has No Direct Exposure To <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a>..Real Estate Sector Make Up 26% Of Group'S Debt Portfolio.</yazg.si></p><p><blockquote><html><body>扬子江船舶控股有限公司<yazg.si>：本集团的债务投资并无直接风险<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">中国恒大集团</a>..房地产行业占本集团债务组合的26%。</yazg.si></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAAS":"中汽系统","BS6.SI":"扬子江船业"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169322690","content_text":"Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd :Group'S Debt Investment Has No Direct Exposure To China Evergrande Group..Real Estate Sector Make Up 26% Of Group'S Debt Portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAAS":1,"03333":1,"BS6.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864527196,"gmtCreate":1633133754672,"gmtModify":1633133754812,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Travel stocks should fly if there is an&nbsp;effective medicine","listText":"Travel stocks should fly if there is an&nbsp;effective medicine","text":"Travel stocks should fly if there is an effective medicine","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864527196","repostId":"2172968435","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864026260,"gmtCreate":1633044581993,"gmtModify":1633044582100,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Have to reduce leverage and more selective.&nbsp;","listText":"Have to reduce leverage and more selective.&nbsp;","text":"Have to reduce leverage and more selective.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864026260","repostId":"1166373612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166373612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633043917,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166373612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166373612","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extendi","content":"<p>Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.</p><p><blockquote>周四，股市在 9 月和第三季度的最后一个交易日下跌，由于对通胀、经济背景的担忧以及华盛顿关于一系列措施的辩论给股市带来压力，股市延续了长达数周的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&amp;P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>标普500收盘下跌1.2%。该指数 9 月份下跌超过 4.5%，为 1 月份以来首次月度下跌，对财政和货币政策、通胀、中国监管以及持续的疫情的担忧都相互碰撞，导致股市偏离上涨轨迹。尽管如此，截至周四收盘，标普500今年迄今仍上涨约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&amp;P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.</p><p><blockquote>尽管周四交易时段下跌，但由于投资者押注通胀上升和利率上升，周期性股票在 9 月份领涨。原油价格的上涨使能源行业成为标普500迄今为止表现最好的行业。金融股也表现出色，国债收益率上升成为银行盈利能力的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，纳斯达克表现不佳，因为交易员纷纷远离去年推动市场走高的成长型和科技股。随着过去一周美国国债收益率飙升，飙升的科技股也受到打击，借贷成本上升给严重依赖未来强劲盈利预期的成长型公司的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“Heritage Capital 总裁保罗-沙茨（Paul Schatz）周三对雅虎财经直播说：”这种感觉比实际情况要糟糕得多，因为自去年 10 月、去年 9 月以来，我们就没有太大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> Concerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.</p><p><blockquote>周四，对通胀和供应链问题的担忧继续阻碍市场。Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的股价下跌了 22.1%，此前该公司表示这些问题损害了公司第二季度的业绩，这一消息似乎打击了其他零售股。沃尔格林博姿联盟和家得宝分别下跌 3.4% 和近 2.6%，成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p> Energy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周表现最好的能源和金融股周四有所回落。高盛股价下跌 1.7%，摩根大通股价下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>科技股周四表现优异，但纳斯达克仍连续第五个交易日下跌。科技股受到近期 10 年期国债收益率飙升的打击，本周早些时候该收益率突破 1.567%。该措施周四略有回落。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧以及美联储将很快开始逐步减少大流行病时期的资产购买的信号，收益率上升被视为对科技股的利空，因为这使得遥远的未来利润对投资者的吸引力下降。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直在谈论阴森恐怖的季节--9 月和 10 月--以及从高点下降约 5% 的预期。.但我们说过，我们预计不会出现回调，”DWS 集团的大卫-比安科（David Bianco）说。修正通常被定义为从近期高点回调超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计收益率会攀升，这也是我们成为跑赢大盘银行的原因，但我们预计收益率不会激增。如果收益率没有激增，我们就可以接受这些[估值]，”比安科补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊的股价在早盘交易中走高后收盘下跌。芯片巨头英伟达 (Nvidia) 和 Netflix 设法保持了涨幅，但收盘价远远低于盘中高点。</blockquote></p><p> “We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p><blockquote>“Vital Knowledge 的亚当-克里萨富利（Adam Crisafulli）写道：”我们今天不会陷入任何季度末的阴谋诡计，并继续建议涨势逐渐消退（尤其是科技股），因为未来几周仍将不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> September’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&amp;P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份的亏损导致市场第三季度表现疲软。3个月期间，道琼斯指数下跌1.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。标普500保持小幅上涨，今年仍上涨近15%。</blockquote></p><p> October has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p><blockquote>十月以剧烈抛售而闻名，但总体而言，这通常是股票季节性表现更好的开始。根据《股票交易员年鉴》（The Stock Trader's Almanac）的数据，标普500本月平均上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.</p><p><blockquote>随着国会通过一项法案，为政府提供资金直至 12 月初，投资者也在密切关注华盛顿。该法案将避免政府关门，但国会仍未提高债务上限，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，债务上限将于 10 月 18 日达到。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”</p><p><blockquote>耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证。耶伦重申了她对国会提高债务上限的看涨期权，称不这样做将是 “灾难性的”。</blockquote></p><p> On the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.</p><p><blockquote>数据方面，前一周首次申请失业救济人数为 362,000 人。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计印刷量为 335,000 份。10 月份就业报告将于 10 月 8 日发布，该报告被视为美联储下一步行动的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至下午 4:09 的市场主要走势ET：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC)</b>: -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>标普500（^GSPC）</b>：-51.92 (-1.19%) 至 4,307.54</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dow (^DJI)</b>: -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92</p><p><blockquote><li><b>道琼斯指数（^DJI）</b>：-546.80 (-1.59%) 至 33,843.92</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Nasdaq (^IXIC)</b>: -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58</p><p><blockquote><li><b>纳斯达克（^IXIC）</b>：-63.86 (-0.44%) 至 14,448.58</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Crude (CL=F)</b>: +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel</p><p><blockquote><li><b>原油（CL=F）</b>：每桶 +0.11 美元 (+0.15%) 至 74.94 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Gold (GC=F)</b>: +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce</p><p><blockquote><li><b>金（GC=F）</b>：+33.70 美元（+1.96%）至每盎司 1,756.60 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>10-year Treasury (^TNX)</b>: -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%</p><p><blockquote><li><b>10年期国债(^TNX)</b>：-1.2 个基点，收益率为 1.5290%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 07:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.</p><p><blockquote>周四，股市在 9 月和第三季度的最后一个交易日下跌，由于对通胀、经济背景的担忧以及华盛顿关于一系列措施的辩论给股市带来压力，股市延续了长达数周的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&amp;P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>标普500收盘下跌1.2%。该指数 9 月份下跌超过 4.5%，为 1 月份以来首次月度下跌，对财政和货币政策、通胀、中国监管以及持续的疫情的担忧都相互碰撞，导致股市偏离上涨轨迹。尽管如此，截至周四收盘，标普500今年迄今仍上涨约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&amp;P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.</p><p><blockquote>尽管周四交易时段下跌，但由于投资者押注通胀上升和利率上升，周期性股票在 9 月份领涨。原油价格的上涨使能源行业成为标普500迄今为止表现最好的行业。金融股也表现出色，国债收益率上升成为银行盈利能力的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，纳斯达克表现不佳，因为交易员纷纷远离去年推动市场走高的成长型和科技股。随着过去一周美国国债收益率飙升，飙升的科技股也受到打击，借贷成本上升给严重依赖未来强劲盈利预期的成长型公司的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“Heritage Capital 总裁保罗-沙茨（Paul Schatz）周三对雅虎财经直播说：”这种感觉比实际情况要糟糕得多，因为自去年 10 月、去年 9 月以来，我们就没有太大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> Concerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.</p><p><blockquote>周四，对通胀和供应链问题的担忧继续阻碍市场。Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的股价下跌了 22.1%，此前该公司表示这些问题损害了公司第二季度的业绩，这一消息似乎打击了其他零售股。沃尔格林博姿联盟和家得宝分别下跌 3.4% 和近 2.6%，成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p> Energy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周表现最好的能源和金融股周四有所回落。高盛股价下跌 1.7%，摩根大通股价下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>科技股周四表现优异，但纳斯达克仍连续第五个交易日下跌。科技股受到近期 10 年期国债收益率飙升的打击，本周早些时候该收益率突破 1.567%。该措施周四略有回落。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧以及美联储将很快开始逐步减少大流行病时期的资产购买的信号，收益率上升被视为对科技股的利空，因为这使得遥远的未来利润对投资者的吸引力下降。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直在谈论阴森恐怖的季节--9 月和 10 月--以及从高点下降约 5% 的预期。.但我们说过，我们预计不会出现回调，”DWS 集团的大卫-比安科（David Bianco）说。修正通常被定义为从近期高点回调超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计收益率会攀升，这也是我们成为跑赢大盘银行的原因，但我们预计收益率不会激增。如果收益率没有激增，我们就可以接受这些[估值]，”比安科补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊的股价在早盘交易中走高后收盘下跌。芯片巨头英伟达 (Nvidia) 和 Netflix 设法保持了涨幅，但收盘价远远低于盘中高点。</blockquote></p><p> “We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p><blockquote>“Vital Knowledge 的亚当-克里萨富利（Adam Crisafulli）写道：”我们今天不会陷入任何季度末的阴谋诡计，并继续建议涨势逐渐消退（尤其是科技股），因为未来几周仍将不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> September’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&amp;P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份的亏损导致市场第三季度表现疲软。3个月期间，道琼斯指数下跌1.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。标普500保持小幅上涨，今年仍上涨近15%。</blockquote></p><p> October has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p><blockquote>十月以剧烈抛售而闻名，但总体而言，这通常是股票季节性表现更好的开始。根据《股票交易员年鉴》（The Stock Trader's Almanac）的数据，标普500本月平均上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.</p><p><blockquote>随着国会通过一项法案，为政府提供资金直至 12 月初，投资者也在密切关注华盛顿。该法案将避免政府关门，但国会仍未提高债务上限，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，债务上限将于 10 月 18 日达到。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”</p><p><blockquote>耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证。耶伦重申了她对国会提高债务上限的看涨期权，称不这样做将是 “灾难性的”。</blockquote></p><p> On the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.</p><p><blockquote>数据方面，前一周首次申请失业救济人数为 362,000 人。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计印刷量为 335,000 份。10 月份就业报告将于 10 月 8 日发布，该报告被视为美联储下一步行动的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至下午 4:09 的市场主要走势ET：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC)</b>: -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>标普500（^GSPC）</b>：-51.92 (-1.19%) 至 4,307.54</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dow (^DJI)</b>: -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92</p><p><blockquote><li><b>道琼斯指数（^DJI）</b>：-546.80 (-1.59%) 至 33,843.92</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Nasdaq (^IXIC)</b>: -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58</p><p><blockquote><li><b>纳斯达克（^IXIC）</b>：-63.86 (-0.44%) 至 14,448.58</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Crude (CL=F)</b>: +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel</p><p><blockquote><li><b>原油（CL=F）</b>：每桶 +0.11 美元 (+0.15%) 至 74.94 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Gold (GC=F)</b>: +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce</p><p><blockquote><li><b>金（GC=F）</b>：+33.70 美元（+1.96%）至每盎司 1,756.60 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>10-year Treasury (^TNX)</b>: -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%</p><p><blockquote><li><b>10年期国债(^TNX)</b>：-1.2 个基点，收益率为 1.5290%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-30-2021-223533367.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-30-2021-223533367.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166373612","content_text":"Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.\nThe S&P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.\nCyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.\nThe Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.\n“This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.\nConcerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.\nEnergy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.\nTech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.\nRising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.\n“We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.\n“We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.\nShares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.\n“We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.\nSeptember’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.\nOctober has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.\nInvestors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.\nYellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”\nOn the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.\nHere were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:\n\nS&P 500 (^GSPC): -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54\nDow (^DJI): -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92\nNasdaq (^IXIC): -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58\nCrude (CL=F): +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel\nGold (GC=F): +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce\n10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%\n\n—","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869655065,"gmtCreate":1632284410857,"gmtModify":1632801493087,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is this drug effective? &nbsp;I thought results was mixed?","listText":"Is this drug effective? &nbsp;I thought results was mixed?","text":"Is this drug effective? I thought results was mixed?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869655065","repostId":"2167314556","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860406718,"gmtCreate":1632193780034,"gmtModify":1632802147254,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?","listText":"May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?","text":"May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860406718","repostId":"1117848660","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117848660","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632192380,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117848660?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117848660","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Apple has taken a successful formula and made it even better.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's iPhone 13 should end up encouraging more of its installed base to switch to 5G.</li>  <li>Incremental upgrades and accessibility to more markets through better carrier support will be tailwinds for the iPhone 13.</li>  <li>The iPhone 13 is the next step in Apple's 5G domination, which can continue for years.</li> </ul> <b>Apple</b>'s&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;iPhone 13 has arrived, and the initial reactions to the smartphone giant's latest and greatest device don't appear all that optimistic. Apple added the&nbsp;usual suite of upgrades&nbsp;to its latest iPhone models, packing in a better screen, faster processor, superior camera system, and bigger battery, among others. But the absence of any \"pathbreaking\" features has given birth to several memes on the internet, with some expressing disappointment at the lack of any substantial innovation.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的iPhone 13最终应该会鼓励更多的安装用户转向5G。</li><li>增量升级和通过更好的运营商支持进入更多市场将是iPhone 13的推动力。</li><li>iPhone 13是苹果5G统治地位的下一步，这种统治可能会持续数年。</li></ul><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的 iPhone 13 已经到来，人们对这家智能手机巨头最新、最棒的设备的最初反应似乎并不那么乐观。苹果为其最新的iPhone机型增加了通常的升级套件，包括更好的屏幕、更快的处理器、卓越的相机系统和更大的电池等。但由于缺乏任何“开创性”功能，互联网上出现了几个迷因，一些人对缺乏任何实质性创新表示失望。</blockquote></p><p> However, I think the iPhone 13 could turn out to be more successful than the iPhone 12, which was&nbsp;a runaway hit&nbsp;last year thanks to aggressive pricing and the addition of 5G.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为iPhone 13可能会比iPhone 12更成功，由于激进的定价和5G的加入，iPhone 12去年大受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that may be the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么会这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1913a1265f134e83f36cb92109cd4f7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The iPhone 13 can continue the iPhone 12's terrific sales momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone 13可以延续iPhone 12的出色销售势头</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 helped Apple become&nbsp;a dominant player&nbsp;in the 5G smartphone market. Strategy Analytics estimates that Apple held&nbsp;29% of the 5G smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 12. The new iPhone models are expected to push that market share up to 40% as more consumers are expected to make the switch to Apple's 5G offerings.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12帮助苹果成为5G智能手机市场的主导者。Strategy Analytics估计，由于iPhone 12，苹果占据了5G智能手机市场29%的份额。随着越来越多的消费者预计会转向苹果的5G产品，新的iPhone机型预计将把市场份额推高至40%。</blockquote></p><p> That won't be surprising, as out of Apple's huge installed base of nearly 1.1 billion iPhones, less than 1% have a 5G-enabled device, at least according to a third-party research estimate. The iPhone 12 crossed 100 million units in less than seven months of its launch, and the iPhone 13 can carry forward that momentum since it is likely to appeal to those customers who have held off upgrading to a 5G device so far.</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为在苹果近 11 亿部 iPhone 的庞大安装基数中，至少根据第三方研究估计，只有不到 1% 的手机拥有支持 5G 的设备。iPhone 12在推出不到7个月的时间里就突破了1亿部，iPhone 13可以延续这一势头，因为它可能会吸引那些迄今为止推迟升级到5G设备的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has increased the storage of the base iPhone 13 models to 128 GB (gigabytes), which now start&nbsp;at $699 for the mini version and $799 for the 6.1-inch version, removing the 64 GB option altogether. While that's $100 higher than the price of the base models of the iPhone 12, the new prices are almost in line with the industry standard. The average selling price&nbsp;of a 5G smartphone stands at $634 as per IDC's estimate.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将iPhone 13基本型号的存储容量增加到128 GB（千兆字节），迷你版起价为699美元，6.1英寸版起价为799美元，完全取消了64 GB选项。虽然这比iPhone 12基本型号的价格高出100美元，但新价格几乎符合行业标准。根据IDC的估计，5G智能手机的平均售价为634美元。</blockquote></p><p> Throw in upgrades such as more 5G wireless bands for better connectivity and Apple's claims that the iPhone 13 models can last 1.5 to 2.5 hours more than the iPhone 12, and it becomes easy to see why those who haven't jumped on to the 5G bandwagon would take the plunge this time. Additionally, Apple points out that the increased number of 5G bands on the iPhone 13 will help it double&nbsp;its 5G support to more than 200 carriers spread across 60 countries.</p><p><blockquote>再加上升级，如更多的5G无线频段以实现更好的连接，以及苹果声称iPhone 13型号可以比iPhone 12多使用1.5到2.5小时，就很容易理解为什么那些没有加入5G潮流的人会冒险这次。此外，苹果指出，iPhone 13上5G频段数量的增加将有助于其对分布在60个国家的200多家运营商的5G支持翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that Apple is all set to bring more 5G users into its fold with the iPhone 13 given the improvements it has brought to the table. There may not be any eye-popping changes to this year's device, but it is likely to continue the impressive sales growth triggered by the iPhone 12 because of a huge installed base of users that are in an upgrade window.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，鉴于iPhone 13带来的改进，苹果已经准备好通过iPhone 13吸引更多的5G用户。今年的设备可能不会有任何令人瞠目结舌的变化，但它很可能会延续iPhone 12引发的令人印象深刻的销售增长，因为巨大的安装用户群正处于升级窗口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's 5G dominance will get a shot in the arm</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的 5G 主导地位将得到一剂强心针</b></blockquote></p><p> Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives estimates&nbsp;that there are 250 million iPhone users with a device that's at least three years old. Also, we saw earlier that the number of customers without a 5G iPhone is even higher.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush Securities 分析师 Daniel Ives 估计，有 2.5 亿 iPhone 用户的设备至少使用了三年。此外，我们之前看到，没有5G iPhone的客户数量甚至更高。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it is not surprising to see why Apple's sales in 2022 are expected to be better, as per&nbsp;<b>Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;estimates. The investment bank expects Apple to move 237 million units next year as compared to an estimated 234 million in 2021. In 2023, iPhone shipments are expected to jump to 249 million units.</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果 2022 年的销量预计会更好也就不足为奇了。<b>瑞士信贷</b>估计。该投资银行预计苹果明年将出售 2.37 亿辆汽车，而 2021 年预计为 2.34 亿辆。2023年，iPhone出货量预计将跃升至2.49亿部。</blockquote></p><p> More importantly, Apple's shipment growth in the 5G era can continue beyond the next two years as global 5G mobile subscriptions are expected&nbsp;to hit 3.36 billion in 2026, up from an estimated 569 million this year, as per&nbsp;<b>Ericsson</b>. This massive growth will be driven by 5G network rollouts in more markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, and North America.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，苹果在 5G 时代的出货量增长可能会持续到未来两年，因为全球 5G 移动用户预计将在 2026 年达到 33.6 亿，高于今年的估计 5.69 亿。<b>爱立信</b>5G网络在拉丁美洲、中东、欧洲和北美更多市场的推出将推动这一巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, if Apple continues to hold a strong 5G market share on account of its massive installed base and a&nbsp;budget-friendly device&nbsp;that could appeal to a wider audience in price-conscious markets, it can keep winning big in 5G smartphones in the long run. The iPhone 13 will play an important role in that regard, as it can encourage upgrades and bring more users into the Apple ecosystem because of the improvements it packs. That's a solid reason why investors should continue holding this&nbsp;5G stock, as it now has a new growth driver to count on.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果苹果凭借其庞大的安装基数和可以在注重价格的市场中吸引更广泛受众的预算友好型设备继续保持强劲的5G市场份额，那么从长远来看，它可以在5G智能手机领域继续大获全胜。iPhone 13将在这方面发挥重要作用，因为它可以鼓励升级，并因为它的改进而将更多用户带入苹果生态系统。这就是投资者应该继续持有这只 5G 股票的充分理由，因为它现在有了新的增长动力可以依靠。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-21 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's iPhone 13 should end up encouraging more of its installed base to switch to 5G.</li>  <li>Incremental upgrades and accessibility to more markets through better carrier support will be tailwinds for the iPhone 13.</li>  <li>The iPhone 13 is the next step in Apple's 5G domination, which can continue for years.</li> </ul> <b>Apple</b>'s&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;iPhone 13 has arrived, and the initial reactions to the smartphone giant's latest and greatest device don't appear all that optimistic. Apple added the&nbsp;usual suite of upgrades&nbsp;to its latest iPhone models, packing in a better screen, faster processor, superior camera system, and bigger battery, among others. But the absence of any \"pathbreaking\" features has given birth to several memes on the internet, with some expressing disappointment at the lack of any substantial innovation.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的iPhone 13最终应该会鼓励更多的安装用户转向5G。</li><li>增量升级和通过更好的运营商支持进入更多市场将是iPhone 13的推动力。</li><li>iPhone 13是苹果5G统治地位的下一步，这种统治可能会持续数年。</li></ul><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的 iPhone 13 已经到来，人们对这家智能手机巨头最新、最棒的设备的最初反应似乎并不那么乐观。苹果为其最新的iPhone机型增加了通常的升级套件，包括更好的屏幕、更快的处理器、卓越的相机系统和更大的电池等。但由于缺乏任何“开创性”功能，互联网上出现了几个迷因，一些人对缺乏任何实质性创新表示失望。</blockquote></p><p> However, I think the iPhone 13 could turn out to be more successful than the iPhone 12, which was&nbsp;a runaway hit&nbsp;last year thanks to aggressive pricing and the addition of 5G.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为iPhone 13可能会比iPhone 12更成功，由于激进的定价和5G的加入，iPhone 12去年大受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that may be the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么会这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1913a1265f134e83f36cb92109cd4f7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The iPhone 13 can continue the iPhone 12's terrific sales momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone 13可以延续iPhone 12的出色销售势头</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 helped Apple become&nbsp;a dominant player&nbsp;in the 5G smartphone market. Strategy Analytics estimates that Apple held&nbsp;29% of the 5G smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 12. The new iPhone models are expected to push that market share up to 40% as more consumers are expected to make the switch to Apple's 5G offerings.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12帮助苹果成为5G智能手机市场的主导者。Strategy Analytics估计，由于iPhone 12，苹果占据了5G智能手机市场29%的份额。随着越来越多的消费者预计会转向苹果的5G产品，新的iPhone机型预计将把市场份额推高至40%。</blockquote></p><p> That won't be surprising, as out of Apple's huge installed base of nearly 1.1 billion iPhones, less than 1% have a 5G-enabled device, at least according to a third-party research estimate. The iPhone 12 crossed 100 million units in less than seven months of its launch, and the iPhone 13 can carry forward that momentum since it is likely to appeal to those customers who have held off upgrading to a 5G device so far.</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为在苹果近 11 亿部 iPhone 的庞大安装基数中，至少根据第三方研究估计，只有不到 1% 的手机拥有支持 5G 的设备。iPhone 12在推出不到7个月的时间里就突破了1亿部，iPhone 13可以延续这一势头，因为它可能会吸引那些迄今为止推迟升级到5G设备的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has increased the storage of the base iPhone 13 models to 128 GB (gigabytes), which now start&nbsp;at $699 for the mini version and $799 for the 6.1-inch version, removing the 64 GB option altogether. While that's $100 higher than the price of the base models of the iPhone 12, the new prices are almost in line with the industry standard. The average selling price&nbsp;of a 5G smartphone stands at $634 as per IDC's estimate.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将iPhone 13基本型号的存储容量增加到128 GB（千兆字节），迷你版起价为699美元，6.1英寸版起价为799美元，完全取消了64 GB选项。虽然这比iPhone 12基本型号的价格高出100美元，但新价格几乎符合行业标准。根据IDC的估计，5G智能手机的平均售价为634美元。</blockquote></p><p> Throw in upgrades such as more 5G wireless bands for better connectivity and Apple's claims that the iPhone 13 models can last 1.5 to 2.5 hours more than the iPhone 12, and it becomes easy to see why those who haven't jumped on to the 5G bandwagon would take the plunge this time. Additionally, Apple points out that the increased number of 5G bands on the iPhone 13 will help it double&nbsp;its 5G support to more than 200 carriers spread across 60 countries.</p><p><blockquote>再加上升级，如更多的5G无线频段以实现更好的连接，以及苹果声称iPhone 13型号可以比iPhone 12多使用1.5到2.5小时，就很容易理解为什么那些没有加入5G潮流的人会冒险这次。此外，苹果指出，iPhone 13上5G频段数量的增加将有助于其对分布在60个国家的200多家运营商的5G支持翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that Apple is all set to bring more 5G users into its fold with the iPhone 13 given the improvements it has brought to the table. There may not be any eye-popping changes to this year's device, but it is likely to continue the impressive sales growth triggered by the iPhone 12 because of a huge installed base of users that are in an upgrade window.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，鉴于iPhone 13带来的改进，苹果已经准备好通过iPhone 13吸引更多的5G用户。今年的设备可能不会有任何令人瞠目结舌的变化，但它很可能会延续iPhone 12引发的令人印象深刻的销售增长，因为巨大的安装用户群正处于升级窗口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's 5G dominance will get a shot in the arm</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的 5G 主导地位将得到一剂强心针</b></blockquote></p><p> Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives estimates&nbsp;that there are 250 million iPhone users with a device that's at least three years old. Also, we saw earlier that the number of customers without a 5G iPhone is even higher.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush Securities 分析师 Daniel Ives 估计，有 2.5 亿 iPhone 用户的设备至少使用了三年。此外，我们之前看到，没有5G iPhone的客户数量甚至更高。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it is not surprising to see why Apple's sales in 2022 are expected to be better, as per&nbsp;<b>Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;estimates. The investment bank expects Apple to move 237 million units next year as compared to an estimated 234 million in 2021. In 2023, iPhone shipments are expected to jump to 249 million units.</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果 2022 年的销量预计会更好也就不足为奇了。<b>瑞士信贷</b>估计。该投资银行预计苹果明年将出售 2.37 亿辆汽车，而 2021 年预计为 2.34 亿辆。2023年，iPhone出货量预计将跃升至2.49亿部。</blockquote></p><p> More importantly, Apple's shipment growth in the 5G era can continue beyond the next two years as global 5G mobile subscriptions are expected&nbsp;to hit 3.36 billion in 2026, up from an estimated 569 million this year, as per&nbsp;<b>Ericsson</b>. This massive growth will be driven by 5G network rollouts in more markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, and North America.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，苹果在 5G 时代的出货量增长可能会持续到未来两年，因为全球 5G 移动用户预计将在 2026 年达到 33.6 亿，高于今年的估计 5.69 亿。<b>爱立信</b>5G网络在拉丁美洲、中东、欧洲和北美更多市场的推出将推动这一巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, if Apple continues to hold a strong 5G market share on account of its massive installed base and a&nbsp;budget-friendly device&nbsp;that could appeal to a wider audience in price-conscious markets, it can keep winning big in 5G smartphones in the long run. The iPhone 13 will play an important role in that regard, as it can encourage upgrades and bring more users into the Apple ecosystem because of the improvements it packs. That's a solid reason why investors should continue holding this&nbsp;5G stock, as it now has a new growth driver to count on.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果苹果凭借其庞大的安装基数和可以在注重价格的市场中吸引更广泛受众的预算友好型设备继续保持强劲的5G市场份额，那么从长远来看，它可以在5G智能手机领域继续大获全胜。iPhone 13将在这方面发挥重要作用，因为它可以鼓励升级，并因为它的改进而将更多用户带入苹果生态系统。这就是投资者应该继续持有这只 5G 股票的充分理由，因为它现在有了新的增长动力可以依靠。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/20/why-apple-iphone-13-should-be-success/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/20/why-apple-iphone-13-should-be-success/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117848660","content_text":"Key Points\n\nApple's iPhone 13 should end up encouraging more of its installed base to switch to 5G.\nIncremental upgrades and accessibility to more markets through better carrier support will be tailwinds for the iPhone 13.\nThe iPhone 13 is the next step in Apple's 5G domination, which can continue for years.\n\nApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 13 has arrived, and the initial reactions to the smartphone giant's latest and greatest device don't appear all that optimistic. Apple added the usual suite of upgrades to its latest iPhone models, packing in a better screen, faster processor, superior camera system, and bigger battery, among others. But the absence of any \"pathbreaking\" features has given birth to several memes on the internet, with some expressing disappointment at the lack of any substantial innovation.\nHowever, I think the iPhone 13 could turn out to be more successful than the iPhone 12, which was a runaway hit last year thanks to aggressive pricing and the addition of 5G.\nLet's see why that may be the case.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe iPhone 13 can continue the iPhone 12's terrific sales momentum\nThe iPhone 12 helped Apple become a dominant player in the 5G smartphone market. Strategy Analytics estimates that Apple held 29% of the 5G smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 12. The new iPhone models are expected to push that market share up to 40% as more consumers are expected to make the switch to Apple's 5G offerings.\nThat won't be surprising, as out of Apple's huge installed base of nearly 1.1 billion iPhones, less than 1% have a 5G-enabled device, at least according to a third-party research estimate. The iPhone 12 crossed 100 million units in less than seven months of its launch, and the iPhone 13 can carry forward that momentum since it is likely to appeal to those customers who have held off upgrading to a 5G device so far.\nApple has increased the storage of the base iPhone 13 models to 128 GB (gigabytes), which now start at $699 for the mini version and $799 for the 6.1-inch version, removing the 64 GB option altogether. While that's $100 higher than the price of the base models of the iPhone 12, the new prices are almost in line with the industry standard. The average selling price of a 5G smartphone stands at $634 as per IDC's estimate.\nThrow in upgrades such as more 5G wireless bands for better connectivity and Apple's claims that the iPhone 13 models can last 1.5 to 2.5 hours more than the iPhone 12, and it becomes easy to see why those who haven't jumped on to the 5G bandwagon would take the plunge this time. Additionally, Apple points out that the increased number of 5G bands on the iPhone 13 will help it double its 5G support to more than 200 carriers spread across 60 countries.\nAll of this indicates that Apple is all set to bring more 5G users into its fold with the iPhone 13 given the improvements it has brought to the table. There may not be any eye-popping changes to this year's device, but it is likely to continue the impressive sales growth triggered by the iPhone 12 because of a huge installed base of users that are in an upgrade window.\nApple's 5G dominance will get a shot in the arm\nWedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives estimates that there are 250 million iPhone users with a device that's at least three years old. Also, we saw earlier that the number of customers without a 5G iPhone is even higher.\nAs a result, it is not surprising to see why Apple's sales in 2022 are expected to be better, as per Credit Suisse estimates. The investment bank expects Apple to move 237 million units next year as compared to an estimated 234 million in 2021. In 2023, iPhone shipments are expected to jump to 249 million units.\nMore importantly, Apple's shipment growth in the 5G era can continue beyond the next two years as global 5G mobile subscriptions are expected to hit 3.36 billion in 2026, up from an estimated 569 million this year, as per Ericsson. This massive growth will be driven by 5G network rollouts in more markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, and North America.\nSo, if Apple continues to hold a strong 5G market share on account of its massive installed base and a budget-friendly device that could appeal to a wider audience in price-conscious markets, it can keep winning big in 5G smartphones in the long run. The iPhone 13 will play an important role in that regard, as it can encourage upgrades and bring more users into the Apple ecosystem because of the improvements it packs. That's a solid reason why investors should continue holding this 5G stock, as it now has a new growth driver to count on.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887758717,"gmtCreate":1632101973539,"gmtModify":1632802843150,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL","listText":"If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL","text":"If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887758717","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888582701,"gmtCreate":1631507923703,"gmtModify":1631884234729,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially&nbsp;","listText":"If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially&nbsp;","text":"If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888582701","repostId":"2167305804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881170274,"gmtCreate":1631320255098,"gmtModify":1631883981982,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just make sure we do not over leverage","listText":"Just make sure we do not over leverage","text":"Just make sure we do not over leverage","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881170274","repostId":"2166897344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883114365,"gmtCreate":1631226099457,"gmtModify":1632883894698,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1% success rate is super low :-(","listText":"1% success rate is super low :-(","text":"1% success rate is super low :-(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883114365","repostId":"1150166367","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150166367","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631166698,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150166367?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 13:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Day Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150166367","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading","content":"<p>Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading. Before the Internet, only people working for large financial institutions, brokerages, or physical trading houses, could take part in the stock market in such an active fashion. Today, markets and transactions are accessible to almost anyone.</p><p><blockquote>由于在线交易所的出现，现在参与日内交易的游戏要容易得多。在互联网出现之前，只有为大型金融机构、经纪公司或实体交易所工作的人才能以如此活跃的方式参与股票市场。今天，几乎任何人都可以进入市场和交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648c1300983659c803b16b3d0a0f74ec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Da</b><b>y Tr</b><b>ading Is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么</b><b>和Tr</b><b>阿丁是</b></blockquote></p><p> At base, day trading consists of frequently buying, selling and short-selling equities in a short period of time, usually reversing out of several positions within the same trading session. The aim is to earn a profit on each trade, sometimes even small profits, and watch those gains compound. The practice can be risky, but also highly lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>在 base，日内交易包括在短时间内频繁买入、卖出和卖空股票，通常在同一交易时段内反转多个头寸。目标是在每笔交易中赚取利润，有时甚至是小额利润，并观察这些利润的复合。这种做法可能有风险，但也非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Day trading may sound enticing for those looking to make a swift profit, but it can be extremely challenging to make a formidable career out of the practice. In fact, a study published by the University of California, Davis, in 2010 revealed that only 1% of day traders consistently make a living from that practice.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些希望快速获利的人来说，日内交易听起来可能很诱人，但从这种做法中获得令人敬畏的职业生涯可能是极具挑战性的。事实上，加州大学戴维斯分校 2010 年发表的一项研究显示，只有 1% 的日内交易者始终以这种做法为生。</blockquote></p><p> But for the few who can succeed in the high-stakes world of day trading, it likely will consume most to all of their time. It is very much a full-time job.</p><p><blockquote>但对于少数能够在高风险的日内交易世界中取得成功的人来说，这可能会占用他们大部分的时间。这在很大程度上是一份全职工作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Day Trading Works</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易如何运作</b></blockquote></p><p> At its core, day trading is all about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks that are on the move. Whether it’s positive or negative news which alters a stock’s trajectory, economic reports, corporate earnings, or simply a change in market mood, day traders cash in on rapid change. They enter and exit positions very quickly. Day traders must monitor positions closely, and often make quick, high-stakes decisions. There's no going to the pub for an afternoon drink hoping the positions they've taken will turn out.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，日内交易就是股市波动；日内交易者寻找正在波动的股票。无论是改变股票轨迹、经济报告、企业盈利的正面或负面新闻，还是仅仅是市场情绪的变化，日内交易者都能从快速变化中获利。他们进出仓位非常快。日内交易者必须密切监控头寸，并经常做出快速、高风险的决定。没有人会去酒吧喝下午茶，希望他们采取的立场会成功。</blockquote></p><p> Something to note, opportunities are not limited to betting that an investment security will rise in price; traders can also profit by betting on downward price movements. Liquidity is also very important to day traders, even more so than other investors. Since day traders need to be able to move in and out of positions with ease, they need to look out for equities which are highly liquid.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是，机会不仅限于押注投资证券的价格会上涨；交易者还可以通过押注价格下跌来获利。流动性对于日内交易者来说也非常重要，甚至比其他投资者更重要。由于日内交易者需要能够轻松地进出头寸，他们需要留意流动性高的股票。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is very much about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks making moves over short time spans.</i>  Most day trading strategies offer a lot of flexibility, allowing day traders to keep their positions open from a few minutes to a few hours. The amount of time that the position is open depends on how the trade is doing and whether the day trader can seize a profit at that time.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易很大程度上与股市波动性有关；日内交易者寻找在短时间内波动的股票。</i>大多数日内交易策略都提供了很大的灵活性，允许日内交易者将头寸保持在几分钟到几个小时之间。头寸的开仓时间取决于交易的进行情况以及日内交易者当时能否获利。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders can consider a variety of markets such as futures, equities, currencies, and options. And they can have access to all the exchanges via a direct access broker. It’s one of the fastest and most affordable ways to engage in day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者可以考虑各种市场，如期货、股票、货币和期权。他们可以通过直接访问经纪人访问所有的交易所。这是参与日内交易最快、最实惠的方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Methods of the Day Trader</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易者的方法</b></blockquote></p><p> There are various types of day trading, each suited for different styles. They can range from short-term trading, where stocks are held for a few seconds or minutes, to more long-term positions where stocks are held throughout the trading day.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易有多种类型，每一种都适合不同的风格。它们的范围可以从短期交易（持有股票几秒钟或几分钟）到更长期的头寸（在整个交易日持有股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Day trader strategies include:</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者策略包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Scalping:</b>This method seeks to make many small profits on small price changes throughout the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>剥头皮：</b>这种方法试图从一天中微小的价格变化中获得许多小利润。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Range trading:</b>This method mostly relies on support and resistance levels to make decisions. (<i>Support and resistance levels are concepts which assist traders to fully comprehend and act in the markets. Support refers to a price level where a downtrend is interrupted due to rising demand for an asset. Resistance refers to a level where an uptrend reverses a sell-off</i>.)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>区间交易：</b>这种方法主要依靠支撑位和阻力位来做出决策。（<i>支撑位和阻力位是帮助交易者充分理解市场并在市场中行动的概念。支撑位是指由于资产需求上升而导致下降趋势中断的价格水平。阻力位是指上升趋势逆转抛售的水平</i>.)</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>News-based trading:</b>Here, day traders take advantage of volatility surrounding news events.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>基于新闻的交易：</b>在这里，日内交易者利用围绕新闻事件的波动性。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>High-frequency trading ((HFT)):</b>This method utilizes algorithms to exploit small or short-term market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>高频交易（（HFT））：</b>这种方法利用算法来利用小的或短期的市场效率低下。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Swing Trading vs. Trend Trading vs. Buy and Hold</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波段交易与趋势交易。买入并持有</b></blockquote></p><p> While a day trader closes out his positions at the end of each trading day, a swing trader can hold her positions for days to even weeks before selling. In&nbsp;swing trading, since there is more time for an equity’s price to increase, there is also more opportunity to profit. With the right selling strategy, swing trading can be much less risky than day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者在每个交易日结束时平仓，而波段交易者可以在卖出前持有头寸数天甚至数周。在波段交易中，由于股票价格上涨的时间更多，因此获利的机会也更多。有了正确的销售策略，波段交易的风险比日内交易小得多。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, trend trading involves using a stock’s past price movements to make predictions on its future trajectory. Since trend traders operate on a longer timeline, they can also gauge broader economic trends and business cycles to determine when to buy and sell a stock. This strategy isn’t usually applied by day traders or swing traders.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，趋势交易涉及利用股票过去的价格变动来预测其未来的轨迹。由于趋势交易者的操作时间较长，他们还可以衡量更广泛的经济趋势和商业周期，以确定何时买卖股票。日内交易者或波段交易者通常不采用这种策略。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, buy-and-hold is often hailed as one of the best strategies available to investors. Under this approach, investors buy an asset and hold it for a few years or even decades, if they wish to, no matter what bumps occur along the way. The aim of this highly passive investing style is to ride out short-term market instability and losses in order to maximize returns over the long term. This is the basis for most long-term investing programs like 401(k)s and IRAs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，买入并持有通常被誉为投资者的最佳策略之一。在这种方法下，投资者购买一项资产并持有几年甚至几十年，如果他们愿意的话，无论一路上发生什么挫折。这种高度被动的投资风格的目的是克服短期市场不稳定和损失，以实现长期回报最大化。这是 401(k) 和 IRA 等大多数长期投资计划的基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buying on Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>保证金购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Day traders often use borrowed money to make trades, a method called “buying on margin.” With a margin account, a trader can use the securities they already own as leverage to borrow up to 50% of the value of the security they’re going to buy. Buying on margin can help day traders increase their profits substantially — far more than what they could have made using their own money. But the practice doesn’t come without risks. Leverage magnifies one's losses when trades don't work out, resulting in costly&nbsp;margin calls.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者经常使用借来的钱进行交易，这种方法被称为 “保证金购买 ”。有了保证金账户，交易者可以利用他们已经拥有的证券作为杠杆，借入高达他们要购买的证券价值 50% 的资金。保证金购买可以帮助日内交易者大幅增加利润——远远超过他们用自己的钱所能获得的利润。但这种做法并非没有风险。当交易不成功时，杠杆会放大一个人的损失，导致代价高昂的保证金评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Rules and Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易规则和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> While day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, it can be extremely risky. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission&nbsp;warns on its website&nbsp;that the practice can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。事实上，美国证券交易委员会在其网站上警告说，这种做法可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</blockquote></p><p> While conventional investing involves the careful analysis of stocks to determine whether an investment is wise, day traders use state-of-the-art technology and technical analysis to spot intraday trends. The risks to investors can be so grave that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has rules in place to monitor this fast-moving practice.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资涉及仔细分析股票以确定投资是否明智，而日内交易者则使用最先进的技术和技术分析来发现日内趋势。投资者面临的风险可能非常严重，以至于金融业监管机构制定了规则来监控这种快速变化的做法。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, but it can be extraordinarily risky. The SEC warns that it can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</i>  In addition to the SEC, FINRA also provides oversight of day traders and enforces certain rules and limitations. For instance, it specifies that a \"pattern day trader\" must maintain at minimum $25,000 in equity on any day that they day trade. (A non-pattern day trader is only required to maintain $2,000). Furthermore, the required minimum equity must be in the account before any day-trading begins. And if the account slips below $25,000, day trading is not permitted until it is restored.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。美国证券交易委员会警告说，这可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</i>除了SEC之外，FINRA还对日内交易者进行监督，并执行某些规则和限制。例如，它规定“模式日内交易者”必须在日内交易的任何一天保持至少25,000美元的股本。（一个非模式日内交易者只需要维持2000美元）。此外，在任何日内交易开始之前，账户中必须有所需的最低权益。如果账户跌破 25,000 美元，则在账户恢复之前不允许进行日内交易。</blockquote></p><p> A day trader may trade up to four times the account's maintenance margin excess as of end of business of the previous day. If a day trader exceeds that limit, however, the brokerage firm will issue a day-trading margin call. The day trader will then have, at most, five business days to deposit funds to meet that call. The brokerage firm can also charge a commission for these transactions.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者的交易最多可以达到前一天交易结束时账户维持保证金超额的四倍。然而，如果日内交易者超过该限额，经纪公司将发行日内交易保证金看涨期权。日内交易者最多有五个工作日的时间来存入资金以满足该看涨期权。经纪公司也可以对这些交易收取佣金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Cryptocurrency Trading Count as Day Trading?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加密货币交易算日内交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way to get involved in day trading is via cryptocurrencies. But since they aren’t regulated by the SEC or FINRA, at least at this point, investors won’t have to worry about day trading limits.</p><p><blockquote>参与日内交易的另一种方式是通过加密货币。但由于它们不受美国证券交易委员会（SEC）或美国金融监管局（FINRA）的监管，至少在目前，投资者不必担心日内交易限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Taxes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易税</b></blockquote></p><p> Day trading doesn’t qualify for favorable tax treatment. Successful day traders are expected to pay income taxes just like traditional investors in the stock market. In very rare cases, day traders can apply for special day trader tax treatment with the IRS. To qualify for that status, the IRS looks for the following criteria: 1) Profit seeking must derive from daily market movements in securities' prices, not from dividends or longer-term capital appreciation. 2) Market activity must be high. 3) The investor must be trading with both continuity and regularity.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易不符合税收优惠的条件。成功的日内交易者需要像股票市场的传统投资者一样缴纳所得税。在极少数情况下，日内交易者可以向美国国税局申请特殊的日内交易者税收待遇。为了获得这一地位，美国国税局寻找以下标准： 1) 追求利润必须来自证券价格的每日市场变动，而不是来自股息或长期资本增值。2）市场活跃度必须高。3）投资者的交易必须具有连续性和规律性。</blockquote></p><p> But for those who aren’t eligible, the following rules apply:</p><p><blockquote>但对于不符合条件的人，适用以下规则：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Day traders are required to pay taxes on investment gains in the year they sell.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>日内交易者需要在出售当年为投资收益纳税。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Day traders may offset gains against losses, but the gains they offset cannot total more than their losses.</p><p><blockquote><li>日内交易者可以用损失来抵消收益，但他们抵消的收益不能超过损失。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>If positions are held for a year or less, ordinary income taxes apply to any gains.</p><p><blockquote><li>如果持仓时间为一年或更短时间，则任何收益均需缴纳普通所得税。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Is Day Trading for Everyone?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易适合所有人吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For a new investor just starting to get into the markets, day trading likely isn’t suitable. Most day traders bring with them substantial training and knowledge about the markets. And with just one bad trade, large amounts of money can be lost very quickly.</p><p><blockquote>对于刚刚开始进入市场的新投资者来说，日内交易可能并不合适。大多数日内交易者都带来了大量的培训和市场知识。只要一笔糟糕的交易，大量的钱就会很快损失。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Tip: Day trading isn't usually advised for newer investors. Most day traders possess substantial training and knowledge about the markets.</i>  Unlike brokers who trade other people’s money, day traders are putting their own assets on the line. That’s precisely why regulatory bodies warn investors of the pitfalls associated with this type of trading.</p><p><blockquote><i>提示：通常不建议新投资者进行日内交易。大多数日内交易者都接受过大量的培训和市场知识。</i>与交易他人资金的经纪人不同，日内交易者将自己的资产置于危险之中。这正是监管机构警告投资者此类交易存在陷阱的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Many professional money managers even shy away from the practice of day trading. They argue that the benefits don’t warrant the risks. But for all the perils, there seem to be some people who can make a great deal of money.</p><p><blockquote>许多专业资金经理甚至回避日内交易的实践。他们认为，好处不足以抵消风险。但是尽管有种种危险，似乎还是有一些人可以赚很多钱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Day Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDay Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 13:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading. Before the Internet, only people working for large financial institutions, brokerages, or physical trading houses, could take part in the stock market in such an active fashion. Today, markets and transactions are accessible to almost anyone.</p><p><blockquote>由于在线交易所的出现，现在参与日内交易的游戏要容易得多。在互联网出现之前，只有为大型金融机构、经纪公司或实体交易所工作的人才能以如此活跃的方式参与股票市场。今天，几乎任何人都可以进入市场和交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648c1300983659c803b16b3d0a0f74ec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Da</b><b>y Tr</b><b>ading Is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么</b><b>和Tr</b><b>阿丁是</b></blockquote></p><p> At base, day trading consists of frequently buying, selling and short-selling equities in a short period of time, usually reversing out of several positions within the same trading session. The aim is to earn a profit on each trade, sometimes even small profits, and watch those gains compound. The practice can be risky, but also highly lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>在 base，日内交易包括在短时间内频繁买入、卖出和卖空股票，通常在同一交易时段内反转多个头寸。目标是在每笔交易中赚取利润，有时甚至是小额利润，并观察这些利润的复合。这种做法可能有风险，但也非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Day trading may sound enticing for those looking to make a swift profit, but it can be extremely challenging to make a formidable career out of the practice. In fact, a study published by the University of California, Davis, in 2010 revealed that only 1% of day traders consistently make a living from that practice.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些希望快速获利的人来说，日内交易听起来可能很诱人，但从这种做法中获得令人敬畏的职业生涯可能是极具挑战性的。事实上，加州大学戴维斯分校 2010 年发表的一项研究显示，只有 1% 的日内交易者始终以这种做法为生。</blockquote></p><p> But for the few who can succeed in the high-stakes world of day trading, it likely will consume most to all of their time. It is very much a full-time job.</p><p><blockquote>但对于少数能够在高风险的日内交易世界中取得成功的人来说，这可能会占用他们大部分的时间。这在很大程度上是一份全职工作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Day Trading Works</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易如何运作</b></blockquote></p><p> At its core, day trading is all about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks that are on the move. Whether it’s positive or negative news which alters a stock’s trajectory, economic reports, corporate earnings, or simply a change in market mood, day traders cash in on rapid change. They enter and exit positions very quickly. Day traders must monitor positions closely, and often make quick, high-stakes decisions. There's no going to the pub for an afternoon drink hoping the positions they've taken will turn out.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，日内交易就是股市波动；日内交易者寻找正在波动的股票。无论是改变股票轨迹、经济报告、企业盈利的正面或负面新闻，还是仅仅是市场情绪的变化，日内交易者都能从快速变化中获利。他们进出仓位非常快。日内交易者必须密切监控头寸，并经常做出快速、高风险的决定。没有人会去酒吧喝下午茶，希望他们采取的立场会成功。</blockquote></p><p> Something to note, opportunities are not limited to betting that an investment security will rise in price; traders can also profit by betting on downward price movements. Liquidity is also very important to day traders, even more so than other investors. Since day traders need to be able to move in and out of positions with ease, they need to look out for equities which are highly liquid.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是，机会不仅限于押注投资证券的价格会上涨；交易者还可以通过押注价格下跌来获利。流动性对于日内交易者来说也非常重要，甚至比其他投资者更重要。由于日内交易者需要能够轻松地进出头寸，他们需要留意流动性高的股票。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is very much about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks making moves over short time spans.</i>  Most day trading strategies offer a lot of flexibility, allowing day traders to keep their positions open from a few minutes to a few hours. The amount of time that the position is open depends on how the trade is doing and whether the day trader can seize a profit at that time.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易很大程度上与股市波动性有关；日内交易者寻找在短时间内波动的股票。</i>大多数日内交易策略都提供了很大的灵活性，允许日内交易者将头寸保持在几分钟到几个小时之间。头寸的开仓时间取决于交易的进行情况以及日内交易者当时能否获利。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders can consider a variety of markets such as futures, equities, currencies, and options. And they can have access to all the exchanges via a direct access broker. It’s one of the fastest and most affordable ways to engage in day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者可以考虑各种市场，如期货、股票、货币和期权。他们可以通过直接访问经纪人访问所有的交易所。这是参与日内交易最快、最实惠的方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Methods of the Day Trader</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易者的方法</b></blockquote></p><p> There are various types of day trading, each suited for different styles. They can range from short-term trading, where stocks are held for a few seconds or minutes, to more long-term positions where stocks are held throughout the trading day.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易有多种类型，每一种都适合不同的风格。它们的范围可以从短期交易（持有股票几秒钟或几分钟）到更长期的头寸（在整个交易日持有股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Day trader strategies include:</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者策略包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Scalping:</b>This method seeks to make many small profits on small price changes throughout the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>剥头皮：</b>这种方法试图从一天中微小的价格变化中获得许多小利润。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Range trading:</b>This method mostly relies on support and resistance levels to make decisions. (<i>Support and resistance levels are concepts which assist traders to fully comprehend and act in the markets. Support refers to a price level where a downtrend is interrupted due to rising demand for an asset. Resistance refers to a level where an uptrend reverses a sell-off</i>.)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>区间交易：</b>这种方法主要依靠支撑位和阻力位来做出决策。（<i>支撑位和阻力位是帮助交易者充分理解市场并在市场中行动的概念。支撑位是指由于资产需求上升而导致下降趋势中断的价格水平。阻力位是指上升趋势逆转抛售的水平</i>.)</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>News-based trading:</b>Here, day traders take advantage of volatility surrounding news events.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>基于新闻的交易：</b>在这里，日内交易者利用围绕新闻事件的波动性。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>High-frequency trading ((HFT)):</b>This method utilizes algorithms to exploit small or short-term market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>高频交易（（HFT））：</b>这种方法利用算法来利用小的或短期的市场效率低下。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Swing Trading vs. Trend Trading vs. Buy and Hold</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波段交易与趋势交易。买入并持有</b></blockquote></p><p> While a day trader closes out his positions at the end of each trading day, a swing trader can hold her positions for days to even weeks before selling. In&nbsp;swing trading, since there is more time for an equity’s price to increase, there is also more opportunity to profit. With the right selling strategy, swing trading can be much less risky than day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者在每个交易日结束时平仓，而波段交易者可以在卖出前持有头寸数天甚至数周。在波段交易中，由于股票价格上涨的时间更多，因此获利的机会也更多。有了正确的销售策略，波段交易的风险比日内交易小得多。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, trend trading involves using a stock’s past price movements to make predictions on its future trajectory. Since trend traders operate on a longer timeline, they can also gauge broader economic trends and business cycles to determine when to buy and sell a stock. This strategy isn’t usually applied by day traders or swing traders.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，趋势交易涉及利用股票过去的价格变动来预测其未来的轨迹。由于趋势交易者的操作时间较长，他们还可以衡量更广泛的经济趋势和商业周期，以确定何时买卖股票。日内交易者或波段交易者通常不采用这种策略。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, buy-and-hold is often hailed as one of the best strategies available to investors. Under this approach, investors buy an asset and hold it for a few years or even decades, if they wish to, no matter what bumps occur along the way. The aim of this highly passive investing style is to ride out short-term market instability and losses in order to maximize returns over the long term. This is the basis for most long-term investing programs like 401(k)s and IRAs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，买入并持有通常被誉为投资者的最佳策略之一。在这种方法下，投资者购买一项资产并持有几年甚至几十年，如果他们愿意的话，无论一路上发生什么挫折。这种高度被动的投资风格的目的是克服短期市场不稳定和损失，以实现长期回报最大化。这是 401(k) 和 IRA 等大多数长期投资计划的基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buying on Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>保证金购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Day traders often use borrowed money to make trades, a method called “buying on margin.” With a margin account, a trader can use the securities they already own as leverage to borrow up to 50% of the value of the security they’re going to buy. Buying on margin can help day traders increase their profits substantially — far more than what they could have made using their own money. But the practice doesn’t come without risks. Leverage magnifies one's losses when trades don't work out, resulting in costly&nbsp;margin calls.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者经常使用借来的钱进行交易，这种方法被称为 “保证金购买 ”。有了保证金账户，交易者可以利用他们已经拥有的证券作为杠杆，借入高达他们要购买的证券价值 50% 的资金。保证金购买可以帮助日内交易者大幅增加利润——远远超过他们用自己的钱所能获得的利润。但这种做法并非没有风险。当交易不成功时，杠杆会放大一个人的损失，导致代价高昂的保证金评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Rules and Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易规则和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> While day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, it can be extremely risky. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission&nbsp;warns on its website&nbsp;that the practice can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。事实上，美国证券交易委员会在其网站上警告说，这种做法可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</blockquote></p><p> While conventional investing involves the careful analysis of stocks to determine whether an investment is wise, day traders use state-of-the-art technology and technical analysis to spot intraday trends. The risks to investors can be so grave that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has rules in place to monitor this fast-moving practice.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资涉及仔细分析股票以确定投资是否明智，而日内交易者则使用最先进的技术和技术分析来发现日内趋势。投资者面临的风险可能非常严重，以至于金融业监管机构制定了规则来监控这种快速变化的做法。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, but it can be extraordinarily risky. The SEC warns that it can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</i>  In addition to the SEC, FINRA also provides oversight of day traders and enforces certain rules and limitations. For instance, it specifies that a \"pattern day trader\" must maintain at minimum $25,000 in equity on any day that they day trade. (A non-pattern day trader is only required to maintain $2,000). Furthermore, the required minimum equity must be in the account before any day-trading begins. And if the account slips below $25,000, day trading is not permitted until it is restored.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。美国证券交易委员会警告说，这可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</i>除了SEC之外，FINRA还对日内交易者进行监督，并执行某些规则和限制。例如，它规定“模式日内交易者”必须在日内交易的任何一天保持至少25,000美元的股本。（一个非模式日内交易者只需要维持2000美元）。此外，在任何日内交易开始之前，账户中必须有所需的最低权益。如果账户跌破 25,000 美元，则在账户恢复之前不允许进行日内交易。</blockquote></p><p> A day trader may trade up to four times the account's maintenance margin excess as of end of business of the previous day. If a day trader exceeds that limit, however, the brokerage firm will issue a day-trading margin call. The day trader will then have, at most, five business days to deposit funds to meet that call. The brokerage firm can also charge a commission for these transactions.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者的交易最多可以达到前一天交易结束时账户维持保证金超额的四倍。然而，如果日内交易者超过该限额，经纪公司将发行日内交易保证金看涨期权。日内交易者最多有五个工作日的时间来存入资金以满足该看涨期权。经纪公司也可以对这些交易收取佣金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Cryptocurrency Trading Count as Day Trading?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加密货币交易算日内交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way to get involved in day trading is via cryptocurrencies. But since they aren’t regulated by the SEC or FINRA, at least at this point, investors won’t have to worry about day trading limits.</p><p><blockquote>参与日内交易的另一种方式是通过加密货币。但由于它们不受美国证券交易委员会（SEC）或美国金融监管局（FINRA）的监管，至少在目前，投资者不必担心日内交易限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Taxes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易税</b></blockquote></p><p> Day trading doesn’t qualify for favorable tax treatment. Successful day traders are expected to pay income taxes just like traditional investors in the stock market. In very rare cases, day traders can apply for special day trader tax treatment with the IRS. To qualify for that status, the IRS looks for the following criteria: 1) Profit seeking must derive from daily market movements in securities' prices, not from dividends or longer-term capital appreciation. 2) Market activity must be high. 3) The investor must be trading with both continuity and regularity.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易不符合税收优惠的条件。成功的日内交易者需要像股票市场的传统投资者一样缴纳所得税。在极少数情况下，日内交易者可以向美国国税局申请特殊的日内交易者税收待遇。为了获得这一地位，美国国税局寻找以下标准： 1) 追求利润必须来自证券价格的每日市场变动，而不是来自股息或长期资本增值。2）市场活跃度必须高。3）投资者的交易必须具有连续性和规律性。</blockquote></p><p> But for those who aren’t eligible, the following rules apply:</p><p><blockquote>但对于不符合条件的人，适用以下规则：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Day traders are required to pay taxes on investment gains in the year they sell.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>日内交易者需要在出售当年为投资收益纳税。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Day traders may offset gains against losses, but the gains they offset cannot total more than their losses.</p><p><blockquote><li>日内交易者可以用损失来抵消收益，但他们抵消的收益不能超过损失。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>If positions are held for a year or less, ordinary income taxes apply to any gains.</p><p><blockquote><li>如果持仓时间为一年或更短时间，则任何收益均需缴纳普通所得税。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Is Day Trading for Everyone?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易适合所有人吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For a new investor just starting to get into the markets, day trading likely isn’t suitable. Most day traders bring with them substantial training and knowledge about the markets. And with just one bad trade, large amounts of money can be lost very quickly.</p><p><blockquote>对于刚刚开始进入市场的新投资者来说，日内交易可能并不合适。大多数日内交易者都带来了大量的培训和市场知识。只要一笔糟糕的交易，大量的钱就会很快损失。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Tip: Day trading isn't usually advised for newer investors. Most day traders possess substantial training and knowledge about the markets.</i>  Unlike brokers who trade other people’s money, day traders are putting their own assets on the line. That’s precisely why regulatory bodies warn investors of the pitfalls associated with this type of trading.</p><p><blockquote><i>提示：通常不建议新投资者进行日内交易。大多数日内交易者都接受过大量的培训和市场知识。</i>与交易他人资金的经纪人不同，日内交易者将自己的资产置于危险之中。这正是监管机构警告投资者此类交易存在陷阱的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Many professional money managers even shy away from the practice of day trading. They argue that the benefits don’t warrant the risks. But for all the perils, there seem to be some people who can make a great deal of money.</p><p><blockquote>许多专业资金经理甚至回避日内交易的实践。他们认为，好处不足以抵消风险。但是尽管有种种危险，似乎还是有一些人可以赚很多钱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453955-what-is-day-trading\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453955-what-is-day-trading","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150166367","content_text":"Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading. Before the Internet, only people working for large financial institutions, brokerages, or physical trading houses, could take part in the stock market in such an active fashion. Today, markets and transactions are accessible to almost anyone.\nMoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nWhat Day Trading Is\nAt base, day trading consists of frequently buying, selling and short-selling equities in a short period of time, usually reversing out of several positions within the same trading session. The aim is to earn a profit on each trade, sometimes even small profits, and watch those gains compound. The practice can be risky, but also highly lucrative.\nDay trading may sound enticing for those looking to make a swift profit, but it can be extremely challenging to make a formidable career out of the practice. In fact, a study published by the University of California, Davis, in 2010 revealed that only 1% of day traders consistently make a living from that practice.\nBut for the few who can succeed in the high-stakes world of day trading, it likely will consume most to all of their time. It is very much a full-time job.\nHow Day Trading Works\nAt its core, day trading is all about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks that are on the move. Whether it’s positive or negative news which alters a stock’s trajectory, economic reports, corporate earnings, or simply a change in market mood, day traders cash in on rapid change. They enter and exit positions very quickly. Day traders must monitor positions closely, and often make quick, high-stakes decisions. There's no going to the pub for an afternoon drink hoping the positions they've taken will turn out.\nSomething to note, opportunities are not limited to betting that an investment security will rise in price; traders can also profit by betting on downward price movements. Liquidity is also very important to day traders, even more so than other investors. Since day traders need to be able to move in and out of positions with ease, they need to look out for equities which are highly liquid.\n\nKey Takeaway: Day trading is very much about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks making moves over short time spans.\n\nMost day trading strategies offer a lot of flexibility, allowing day traders to keep their positions open from a few minutes to a few hours. The amount of time that the position is open depends on how the trade is doing and whether the day trader can seize a profit at that time.\nDay traders can consider a variety of markets such as futures, equities, currencies, and options. And they can have access to all the exchanges via a direct access broker. It’s one of the fastest and most affordable ways to engage in day trading.\nMethods of the Day Trader\nThere are various types of day trading, each suited for different styles. They can range from short-term trading, where stocks are held for a few seconds or minutes, to more long-term positions where stocks are held throughout the trading day.\nDay trader strategies include:\n\nScalping:This method seeks to make many small profits on small price changes throughout the day.\nRange trading:This method mostly relies on support and resistance levels to make decisions. (Support and resistance levels are concepts which assist traders to fully comprehend and act in the markets. Support refers to a price level where a downtrend is interrupted due to rising demand for an asset. Resistance refers to a level where an uptrend reverses a sell-off.)\nNews-based trading:Here, day traders take advantage of volatility surrounding news events.\nHigh-frequency trading ((HFT)):This method utilizes algorithms to exploit small or short-term market inefficiencies.\n\nSwing Trading vs. Trend Trading vs. Buy and Hold\nWhile a day trader closes out his positions at the end of each trading day, a swing trader can hold her positions for days to even weeks before selling. In swing trading, since there is more time for an equity’s price to increase, there is also more opportunity to profit. With the right selling strategy, swing trading can be much less risky than day trading.\nBy contrast, trend trading involves using a stock’s past price movements to make predictions on its future trajectory. Since trend traders operate on a longer timeline, they can also gauge broader economic trends and business cycles to determine when to buy and sell a stock. This strategy isn’t usually applied by day traders or swing traders.\nMeanwhile, buy-and-hold is often hailed as one of the best strategies available to investors. Under this approach, investors buy an asset and hold it for a few years or even decades, if they wish to, no matter what bumps occur along the way. The aim of this highly passive investing style is to ride out short-term market instability and losses in order to maximize returns over the long term. This is the basis for most long-term investing programs like 401(k)s and IRAs.\nBuying on Margin\nDay traders often use borrowed money to make trades, a method called “buying on margin.” With a margin account, a trader can use the securities they already own as leverage to borrow up to 50% of the value of the security they’re going to buy. Buying on margin can help day traders increase their profits substantially — far more than what they could have made using their own money. But the practice doesn’t come without risks. Leverage magnifies one's losses when trades don't work out, resulting in costly margin calls.\nDay Trading Rules and Risks\nWhile day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, it can be extremely risky. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission warns on its website that the practice can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.\nWhile conventional investing involves the careful analysis of stocks to determine whether an investment is wise, day traders use state-of-the-art technology and technical analysis to spot intraday trends. The risks to investors can be so grave that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has rules in place to monitor this fast-moving practice.\n\nKey Takeaway: Day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, but it can be extraordinarily risky. The SEC warns that it can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.\n\nIn addition to the SEC, FINRA also provides oversight of day traders and enforces certain rules and limitations. For instance, it specifies that a \"pattern day trader\" must maintain at minimum $25,000 in equity on any day that they day trade. (A non-pattern day trader is only required to maintain $2,000). Furthermore, the required minimum equity must be in the account before any day-trading begins. And if the account slips below $25,000, day trading is not permitted until it is restored.\nA day trader may trade up to four times the account's maintenance margin excess as of end of business of the previous day. If a day trader exceeds that limit, however, the brokerage firm will issue a day-trading margin call. The day trader will then have, at most, five business days to deposit funds to meet that call. The brokerage firm can also charge a commission for these transactions.\nDoes Cryptocurrency Trading Count as Day Trading?\nAnother way to get involved in day trading is via cryptocurrencies. But since they aren’t regulated by the SEC or FINRA, at least at this point, investors won’t have to worry about day trading limits.\nDay Trading Taxes\nDay trading doesn’t qualify for favorable tax treatment. Successful day traders are expected to pay income taxes just like traditional investors in the stock market. In very rare cases, day traders can apply for special day trader tax treatment with the IRS. To qualify for that status, the IRS looks for the following criteria: 1) Profit seeking must derive from daily market movements in securities' prices, not from dividends or longer-term capital appreciation. 2) Market activity must be high. 3) The investor must be trading with both continuity and regularity.\nBut for those who aren’t eligible, the following rules apply:\n\nDay traders are required to pay taxes on investment gains in the year they sell.\nDay traders may offset gains against losses, but the gains they offset cannot total more than their losses.\nIf positions are held for a year or less, ordinary income taxes apply to any gains.\n\nIs Day Trading for Everyone?\nFor a new investor just starting to get into the markets, day trading likely isn’t suitable. Most day traders bring with them substantial training and knowledge about the markets. And with just one bad trade, large amounts of money can be lost very quickly.\n\nTip: Day trading isn't usually advised for newer investors. Most day traders possess substantial training and knowledge about the markets.\n\nUnlike brokers who trade other people’s money, day traders are putting their own assets on the line. That’s precisely why regulatory bodies warn investors of the pitfalls associated with this type of trading.\nMany professional money managers even shy away from the practice of day trading. They argue that the benefits don’t warrant the risks. But for all the perils, there seem to be some people who can make a great deal of money.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880504477,"gmtCreate":1631063292199,"gmtModify":1631884312625,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C31.SI\">$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$</a>Think prospect should be good for the mgmt co","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C31.SI\">$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$</a>Think prospect should be good for the mgmt co","text":"$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$Think prospect should be good for the mgmt co","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880504477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880646469,"gmtCreate":1631057518351,"gmtModify":1632884976682,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Speculative play","listText":"Speculative play","text":"Speculative play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880646469","repostId":"1135009497","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880656348,"gmtCreate":1631057118284,"gmtModify":1632884985542,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. &nbsp;The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse","listText":"Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. &nbsp;The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse","text":"Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880656348","repostId":"1148244903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148244903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631027025,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148244903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 23:03","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148244903","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend a","content":"<p>Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.</p><p><blockquote>在 ofEl Salvado 推出“比特币日”法律招标之前的长周末，比特币（和以太币）刚刚进行了第二次更大的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...</p><p><blockquote>比特币从5.3万美元暴跌至4.9万美元以下……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa53ca2dc78633e42d336039958a4be\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...</p><p><blockquote>以太币已经回落到3500美元以下（并且明显低于萨尔瓦多的兴奋）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad830058c11f71829955553d50022cf5\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Some chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.</p><p><blockquote>有人猜测，ETH 的举动是由 NFT 头条新闻后短期转向索拉诺引发的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.</p><p><blockquote>在 ofEl Salvado 推出“比特币日”法律招标之前的长周末，比特币（和以太币）刚刚进行了第二次更大的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...</p><p><blockquote>比特币从5.3万美元暴跌至4.9万美元以下……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa53ca2dc78633e42d336039958a4be\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...</p><p><blockquote>以太币已经回落到3500美元以下（并且明显低于萨尔瓦多的兴奋）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad830058c11f71829955553d50022cf5\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Some chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.</p><p><blockquote>有人猜测，ETH 的举动是由 NFT 头条新闻后短期转向索拉诺引发的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/cryptos-just-puked?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/cryptos-just-puked?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148244903","content_text":"Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.\nBitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nSome chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880659863,"gmtCreate":1631056925852,"gmtModify":1632884989321,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The moment a Mathematician&nbsp;come out with an efficient method of mining Bitcoin then the price will collapse","listText":"The moment a Mathematician&nbsp;come out with an efficient method of mining Bitcoin then the price will collapse","text":"The moment a Mathematician come out with an efficient method of mining Bitcoin then the price will collapse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880659863","repostId":"1148244903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148244903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631027025,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148244903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 23:03","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148244903","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend a","content":"<p>Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.</p><p><blockquote>在 ofEl Salvado 推出“比特币日”法律招标之前的长周末，比特币（和以太币）刚刚进行了第二次更大的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...</p><p><blockquote>比特币从5.3万美元暴跌至4.9万美元以下……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa53ca2dc78633e42d336039958a4be\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...</p><p><blockquote>以太币已经回落到3500美元以下（并且明显低于萨尔瓦多的兴奋）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad830058c11f71829955553d50022cf5\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Some chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.</p><p><blockquote>有人猜测，ETH 的举动是由 NFT 头条新闻后短期转向索拉诺引发的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.</p><p><blockquote>在 ofEl Salvado 推出“比特币日”法律招标之前的长周末，比特币（和以太币）刚刚进行了第二次更大的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...</p><p><blockquote>比特币从5.3万美元暴跌至4.9万美元以下……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa53ca2dc78633e42d336039958a4be\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...</p><p><blockquote>以太币已经回落到3500美元以下（并且明显低于萨尔瓦多的兴奋）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad830058c11f71829955553d50022cf5\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Some chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.</p><p><blockquote>有人猜测，ETH 的举动是由 NFT 头条新闻后短期转向索拉诺引发的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/cryptos-just-puked?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/cryptos-just-puked?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148244903","content_text":"Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.\nBitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nSome chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817564763,"gmtCreate":1630976010452,"gmtModify":1632904860752,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy only what you know","listText":"Buy only what you know","text":"Buy only what you know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817564763","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814901831,"gmtCreate":1630735620523,"gmtModify":1632906100547,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure will last?","listText":"Not sure will last?","text":"Not sure will last?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814901831","repostId":"1159580926","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812735044,"gmtCreate":1630624178488,"gmtModify":1631884234868,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A lot of&nbsp;China tech&nbsp;stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen","listText":"A lot of&nbsp;China tech&nbsp;stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen","text":"A lot of China tech stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812735044","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816546493,"gmtCreate":1630509449212,"gmtModify":1632475405317,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582064943200061","authorIdStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kept buying back - price should go up","listText":"Kept buying back - price should go up","text":"Kept buying back - price should go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816546493","repostId":"2164125892","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":859173682,"gmtCreate":1634684008173,"gmtModify":1634684008333,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Reasons?","listText":"Reasons?","text":"Reasons?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":35,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859173682","repostId":"2176171528","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2176171528","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1634642633,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2176171528?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 19:23","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Cash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2176171528","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"CASH Financial Services Group Ltd <0510.HK>:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Sha","content":"<p><html><body>CASH Financial Services Group Ltd &lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>现金金融服务集团有限公司&lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit于公开市场以1,450万港元出售26,000股腾讯控股股份。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-19 19:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>CASH Financial Services Group Ltd &lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>现金金融服务集团有限公司&lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit于公开市场以1,450万港元出售26,000股腾讯控股股份。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2176171528","content_text":"CASH Financial Services Group Ltd <0510.HK>:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.6,"UNT":1,"00700":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603818536,"gmtCreate":1638397658284,"gmtModify":1638397658477,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603818536","repostId":"2176171528","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2176171528","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1634642633,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2176171528?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 19:23","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Cash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2176171528","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"CASH Financial Services Group Ltd <0510.HK>:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Sha","content":"<p><html><body>CASH Financial Services Group Ltd &lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>现金金融服务集团有限公司&lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit于公开市场以1,450万港元出售26,000股腾讯控股股份。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCash Financial Services Says Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares<blockquote>Cash Financial Services 表示该部门出售了 26,000 股腾讯控股股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-19 19:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>CASH Financial Services Group Ltd &lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>现金金融服务集团有限公司&lt;0510.HK&gt;:Cash Financial Services-Unit于公开市场以1,450万港元出售26,000股腾讯控股股份。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2176171528","content_text":"CASH Financial Services Group Ltd <0510.HK>:Cash Financial Services-Unit Disposed 26,000 Tencent Shares On Open Market For Hk$14.5 Million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.6,"UNT":1,"00700":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887758717,"gmtCreate":1632101973539,"gmtModify":1632802843150,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL","listText":"If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL","text":"If I can get USD600/week, I also don’t want to work LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887758717","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812735044,"gmtCreate":1630624178488,"gmtModify":1631884234868,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A lot of&nbsp;China tech&nbsp;stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen","listText":"A lot of&nbsp;China tech&nbsp;stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen","text":"A lot of China tech stocks has dropped more than 40% so this may not be a surprise if really happen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812735044","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888582701,"gmtCreate":1631507923703,"gmtModify":1631884234729,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially&nbsp;","listText":"If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially&nbsp;","text":"If China and rest of world going to mandate electric cars, the demand for oil will drop substantially","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888582701","repostId":"2167305804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864527196,"gmtCreate":1633133754672,"gmtModify":1633133754812,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Travel stocks should fly if there is an&nbsp;effective medicine","listText":"Travel stocks should fly if there is an&nbsp;effective medicine","text":"Travel stocks should fly if there is an effective medicine","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864527196","repostId":"2172968435","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864026260,"gmtCreate":1633044581993,"gmtModify":1633044582100,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Have to reduce leverage and more selective.&nbsp;","listText":"Have to reduce leverage and more selective.&nbsp;","text":"Have to reduce leverage and more selective.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864026260","repostId":"1166373612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166373612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633043917,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166373612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166373612","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extendi","content":"<p>Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.</p><p><blockquote>周四，股市在 9 月和第三季度的最后一个交易日下跌，由于对通胀、经济背景的担忧以及华盛顿关于一系列措施的辩论给股市带来压力，股市延续了长达数周的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&amp;P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>标普500收盘下跌1.2%。该指数 9 月份下跌超过 4.5%，为 1 月份以来首次月度下跌，对财政和货币政策、通胀、中国监管以及持续的疫情的担忧都相互碰撞，导致股市偏离上涨轨迹。尽管如此，截至周四收盘，标普500今年迄今仍上涨约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&amp;P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.</p><p><blockquote>尽管周四交易时段下跌，但由于投资者押注通胀上升和利率上升，周期性股票在 9 月份领涨。原油价格的上涨使能源行业成为标普500迄今为止表现最好的行业。金融股也表现出色，国债收益率上升成为银行盈利能力的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，纳斯达克表现不佳，因为交易员纷纷远离去年推动市场走高的成长型和科技股。随着过去一周美国国债收益率飙升，飙升的科技股也受到打击，借贷成本上升给严重依赖未来强劲盈利预期的成长型公司的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“Heritage Capital 总裁保罗-沙茨（Paul Schatz）周三对雅虎财经直播说：”这种感觉比实际情况要糟糕得多，因为自去年 10 月、去年 9 月以来，我们就没有太大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> Concerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.</p><p><blockquote>周四，对通胀和供应链问题的担忧继续阻碍市场。Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的股价下跌了 22.1%，此前该公司表示这些问题损害了公司第二季度的业绩，这一消息似乎打击了其他零售股。沃尔格林博姿联盟和家得宝分别下跌 3.4% 和近 2.6%，成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p> Energy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周表现最好的能源和金融股周四有所回落。高盛股价下跌 1.7%，摩根大通股价下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>科技股周四表现优异，但纳斯达克仍连续第五个交易日下跌。科技股受到近期 10 年期国债收益率飙升的打击，本周早些时候该收益率突破 1.567%。该措施周四略有回落。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧以及美联储将很快开始逐步减少大流行病时期的资产购买的信号，收益率上升被视为对科技股的利空，因为这使得遥远的未来利润对投资者的吸引力下降。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直在谈论阴森恐怖的季节--9 月和 10 月--以及从高点下降约 5% 的预期。.但我们说过，我们预计不会出现回调，”DWS 集团的大卫-比安科（David Bianco）说。修正通常被定义为从近期高点回调超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计收益率会攀升，这也是我们成为跑赢大盘银行的原因，但我们预计收益率不会激增。如果收益率没有激增，我们就可以接受这些[估值]，”比安科补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊的股价在早盘交易中走高后收盘下跌。芯片巨头英伟达 (Nvidia) 和 Netflix 设法保持了涨幅，但收盘价远远低于盘中高点。</blockquote></p><p> “We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p><blockquote>“Vital Knowledge 的亚当-克里萨富利（Adam Crisafulli）写道：”我们今天不会陷入任何季度末的阴谋诡计，并继续建议涨势逐渐消退（尤其是科技股），因为未来几周仍将不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> September’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&amp;P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份的亏损导致市场第三季度表现疲软。3个月期间，道琼斯指数下跌1.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。标普500保持小幅上涨，今年仍上涨近15%。</blockquote></p><p> October has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p><blockquote>十月以剧烈抛售而闻名，但总体而言，这通常是股票季节性表现更好的开始。根据《股票交易员年鉴》（The Stock Trader's Almanac）的数据，标普500本月平均上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.</p><p><blockquote>随着国会通过一项法案，为政府提供资金直至 12 月初，投资者也在密切关注华盛顿。该法案将避免政府关门，但国会仍未提高债务上限，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，债务上限将于 10 月 18 日达到。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”</p><p><blockquote>耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证。耶伦重申了她对国会提高债务上限的看涨期权，称不这样做将是 “灾难性的”。</blockquote></p><p> On the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.</p><p><blockquote>数据方面，前一周首次申请失业救济人数为 362,000 人。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计印刷量为 335,000 份。10 月份就业报告将于 10 月 8 日发布，该报告被视为美联储下一步行动的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至下午 4:09 的市场主要走势ET：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC)</b>: -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>标普500（^GSPC）</b>：-51.92 (-1.19%) 至 4,307.54</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dow (^DJI)</b>: -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92</p><p><blockquote><li><b>道琼斯指数（^DJI）</b>：-546.80 (-1.59%) 至 33,843.92</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Nasdaq (^IXIC)</b>: -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58</p><p><blockquote><li><b>纳斯达克（^IXIC）</b>：-63.86 (-0.44%) 至 14,448.58</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Crude (CL=F)</b>: +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel</p><p><blockquote><li><b>原油（CL=F）</b>：每桶 +0.11 美元 (+0.15%) 至 74.94 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Gold (GC=F)</b>: +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce</p><p><blockquote><li><b>金（GC=F）</b>：+33.70 美元（+1.96%）至每盎司 1,756.60 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>10-year Treasury (^TNX)</b>: -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%</p><p><blockquote><li><b>10年期国债(^TNX)</b>：-1.2 个基点，收益率为 1.5290%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 07:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.</p><p><blockquote>周四，股市在 9 月和第三季度的最后一个交易日下跌，由于对通胀、经济背景的担忧以及华盛顿关于一系列措施的辩论给股市带来压力，股市延续了长达数周的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&amp;P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>标普500收盘下跌1.2%。该指数 9 月份下跌超过 4.5%，为 1 月份以来首次月度下跌，对财政和货币政策、通胀、中国监管以及持续的疫情的担忧都相互碰撞，导致股市偏离上涨轨迹。尽管如此，截至周四收盘，标普500今年迄今仍上涨约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&amp;P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.</p><p><blockquote>尽管周四交易时段下跌，但由于投资者押注通胀上升和利率上升，周期性股票在 9 月份领涨。原油价格的上涨使能源行业成为标普500迄今为止表现最好的行业。金融股也表现出色，国债收益率上升成为银行盈利能力的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，纳斯达克表现不佳，因为交易员纷纷远离去年推动市场走高的成长型和科技股。随着过去一周美国国债收益率飙升，飙升的科技股也受到打击，借贷成本上升给严重依赖未来强劲盈利预期的成长型公司的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“Heritage Capital 总裁保罗-沙茨（Paul Schatz）周三对雅虎财经直播说：”这种感觉比实际情况要糟糕得多，因为自去年 10 月、去年 9 月以来，我们就没有太大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> Concerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.</p><p><blockquote>周四，对通胀和供应链问题的担忧继续阻碍市场。Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的股价下跌了 22.1%，此前该公司表示这些问题损害了公司第二季度的业绩，这一消息似乎打击了其他零售股。沃尔格林博姿联盟和家得宝分别下跌 3.4% 和近 2.6%，成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p> Energy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周表现最好的能源和金融股周四有所回落。高盛股价下跌 1.7%，摩根大通股价下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>科技股周四表现优异，但纳斯达克仍连续第五个交易日下跌。科技股受到近期 10 年期国债收益率飙升的打击，本周早些时候该收益率突破 1.567%。该措施周四略有回落。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧以及美联储将很快开始逐步减少大流行病时期的资产购买的信号，收益率上升被视为对科技股的利空，因为这使得遥远的未来利润对投资者的吸引力下降。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直在谈论阴森恐怖的季节--9 月和 10 月--以及从高点下降约 5% 的预期。.但我们说过，我们预计不会出现回调，”DWS 集团的大卫-比安科（David Bianco）说。修正通常被定义为从近期高点回调超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计收益率会攀升，这也是我们成为跑赢大盘银行的原因，但我们预计收益率不会激增。如果收益率没有激增，我们就可以接受这些[估值]，”比安科补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊的股价在早盘交易中走高后收盘下跌。芯片巨头英伟达 (Nvidia) 和 Netflix 设法保持了涨幅，但收盘价远远低于盘中高点。</blockquote></p><p> “We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p><blockquote>“Vital Knowledge 的亚当-克里萨富利（Adam Crisafulli）写道：”我们今天不会陷入任何季度末的阴谋诡计，并继续建议涨势逐渐消退（尤其是科技股），因为未来几周仍将不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> September’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&amp;P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份的亏损导致市场第三季度表现疲软。3个月期间，道琼斯指数下跌1.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。标普500保持小幅上涨，今年仍上涨近15%。</blockquote></p><p> October has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p><blockquote>十月以剧烈抛售而闻名，但总体而言，这通常是股票季节性表现更好的开始。根据《股票交易员年鉴》（The Stock Trader's Almanac）的数据，标普500本月平均上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.</p><p><blockquote>随着国会通过一项法案，为政府提供资金直至 12 月初，投资者也在密切关注华盛顿。该法案将避免政府关门，但国会仍未提高债务上限，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，债务上限将于 10 月 18 日达到。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”</p><p><blockquote>耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证。耶伦重申了她对国会提高债务上限的看涨期权，称不这样做将是 “灾难性的”。</blockquote></p><p> On the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.</p><p><blockquote>数据方面，前一周首次申请失业救济人数为 362,000 人。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计印刷量为 335,000 份。10 月份就业报告将于 10 月 8 日发布，该报告被视为美联储下一步行动的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至下午 4:09 的市场主要走势ET：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC)</b>: -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>标普500（^GSPC）</b>：-51.92 (-1.19%) 至 4,307.54</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dow (^DJI)</b>: -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92</p><p><blockquote><li><b>道琼斯指数（^DJI）</b>：-546.80 (-1.59%) 至 33,843.92</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Nasdaq (^IXIC)</b>: -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58</p><p><blockquote><li><b>纳斯达克（^IXIC）</b>：-63.86 (-0.44%) 至 14,448.58</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Crude (CL=F)</b>: +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel</p><p><blockquote><li><b>原油（CL=F）</b>：每桶 +0.11 美元 (+0.15%) 至 74.94 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Gold (GC=F)</b>: +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce</p><p><blockquote><li><b>金（GC=F）</b>：+33.70 美元（+1.96%）至每盎司 1,756.60 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>10-year Treasury (^TNX)</b>: -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%</p><p><blockquote><li><b>10年期国债(^TNX)</b>：-1.2 个基点，收益率为 1.5290%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-30-2021-223533367.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-30-2021-223533367.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166373612","content_text":"Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.\nThe S&P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.\nCyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.\nThe Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.\n“This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.\nConcerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.\nEnergy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.\nTech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.\nRising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.\n“We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.\n“We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.\nShares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.\n“We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.\nSeptember’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.\nOctober has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.\nInvestors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.\nYellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”\nOn the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.\nHere were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:\n\nS&P 500 (^GSPC): -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54\nDow (^DJI): -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92\nNasdaq (^IXIC): -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58\nCrude (CL=F): +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel\nGold (GC=F): +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce\n10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%\n\n—","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860406718,"gmtCreate":1632193780034,"gmtModify":1632802147254,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?","listText":"May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?","text":"May be can buy Apple share if there is a market crash?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860406718","repostId":"1117848660","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117848660","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632192380,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117848660?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117848660","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Apple has taken a successful formula and made it even better.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's iPhone 13 should end up encouraging more of its installed base to switch to 5G.</li>  <li>Incremental upgrades and accessibility to more markets through better carrier support will be tailwinds for the iPhone 13.</li>  <li>The iPhone 13 is the next step in Apple's 5G domination, which can continue for years.</li> </ul> <b>Apple</b>'s&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;iPhone 13 has arrived, and the initial reactions to the smartphone giant's latest and greatest device don't appear all that optimistic. Apple added the&nbsp;usual suite of upgrades&nbsp;to its latest iPhone models, packing in a better screen, faster processor, superior camera system, and bigger battery, among others. But the absence of any \"pathbreaking\" features has given birth to several memes on the internet, with some expressing disappointment at the lack of any substantial innovation.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的iPhone 13最终应该会鼓励更多的安装用户转向5G。</li><li>增量升级和通过更好的运营商支持进入更多市场将是iPhone 13的推动力。</li><li>iPhone 13是苹果5G统治地位的下一步，这种统治可能会持续数年。</li></ul><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的 iPhone 13 已经到来，人们对这家智能手机巨头最新、最棒的设备的最初反应似乎并不那么乐观。苹果为其最新的iPhone机型增加了通常的升级套件，包括更好的屏幕、更快的处理器、卓越的相机系统和更大的电池等。但由于缺乏任何“开创性”功能，互联网上出现了几个迷因，一些人对缺乏任何实质性创新表示失望。</blockquote></p><p> However, I think the iPhone 13 could turn out to be more successful than the iPhone 12, which was&nbsp;a runaway hit&nbsp;last year thanks to aggressive pricing and the addition of 5G.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为iPhone 13可能会比iPhone 12更成功，由于激进的定价和5G的加入，iPhone 12去年大受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that may be the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么会这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1913a1265f134e83f36cb92109cd4f7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The iPhone 13 can continue the iPhone 12's terrific sales momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone 13可以延续iPhone 12的出色销售势头</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 helped Apple become&nbsp;a dominant player&nbsp;in the 5G smartphone market. Strategy Analytics estimates that Apple held&nbsp;29% of the 5G smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 12. The new iPhone models are expected to push that market share up to 40% as more consumers are expected to make the switch to Apple's 5G offerings.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12帮助苹果成为5G智能手机市场的主导者。Strategy Analytics估计，由于iPhone 12，苹果占据了5G智能手机市场29%的份额。随着越来越多的消费者预计会转向苹果的5G产品，新的iPhone机型预计将把市场份额推高至40%。</blockquote></p><p> That won't be surprising, as out of Apple's huge installed base of nearly 1.1 billion iPhones, less than 1% have a 5G-enabled device, at least according to a third-party research estimate. The iPhone 12 crossed 100 million units in less than seven months of its launch, and the iPhone 13 can carry forward that momentum since it is likely to appeal to those customers who have held off upgrading to a 5G device so far.</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为在苹果近 11 亿部 iPhone 的庞大安装基数中，至少根据第三方研究估计，只有不到 1% 的手机拥有支持 5G 的设备。iPhone 12在推出不到7个月的时间里就突破了1亿部，iPhone 13可以延续这一势头，因为它可能会吸引那些迄今为止推迟升级到5G设备的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has increased the storage of the base iPhone 13 models to 128 GB (gigabytes), which now start&nbsp;at $699 for the mini version and $799 for the 6.1-inch version, removing the 64 GB option altogether. While that's $100 higher than the price of the base models of the iPhone 12, the new prices are almost in line with the industry standard. The average selling price&nbsp;of a 5G smartphone stands at $634 as per IDC's estimate.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将iPhone 13基本型号的存储容量增加到128 GB（千兆字节），迷你版起价为699美元，6.1英寸版起价为799美元，完全取消了64 GB选项。虽然这比iPhone 12基本型号的价格高出100美元，但新价格几乎符合行业标准。根据IDC的估计，5G智能手机的平均售价为634美元。</blockquote></p><p> Throw in upgrades such as more 5G wireless bands for better connectivity and Apple's claims that the iPhone 13 models can last 1.5 to 2.5 hours more than the iPhone 12, and it becomes easy to see why those who haven't jumped on to the 5G bandwagon would take the plunge this time. Additionally, Apple points out that the increased number of 5G bands on the iPhone 13 will help it double&nbsp;its 5G support to more than 200 carriers spread across 60 countries.</p><p><blockquote>再加上升级，如更多的5G无线频段以实现更好的连接，以及苹果声称iPhone 13型号可以比iPhone 12多使用1.5到2.5小时，就很容易理解为什么那些没有加入5G潮流的人会冒险这次。此外，苹果指出，iPhone 13上5G频段数量的增加将有助于其对分布在60个国家的200多家运营商的5G支持翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that Apple is all set to bring more 5G users into its fold with the iPhone 13 given the improvements it has brought to the table. There may not be any eye-popping changes to this year's device, but it is likely to continue the impressive sales growth triggered by the iPhone 12 because of a huge installed base of users that are in an upgrade window.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，鉴于iPhone 13带来的改进，苹果已经准备好通过iPhone 13吸引更多的5G用户。今年的设备可能不会有任何令人瞠目结舌的变化，但它很可能会延续iPhone 12引发的令人印象深刻的销售增长，因为巨大的安装用户群正处于升级窗口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's 5G dominance will get a shot in the arm</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的 5G 主导地位将得到一剂强心针</b></blockquote></p><p> Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives estimates&nbsp;that there are 250 million iPhone users with a device that's at least three years old. Also, we saw earlier that the number of customers without a 5G iPhone is even higher.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush Securities 分析师 Daniel Ives 估计，有 2.5 亿 iPhone 用户的设备至少使用了三年。此外，我们之前看到，没有5G iPhone的客户数量甚至更高。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it is not surprising to see why Apple's sales in 2022 are expected to be better, as per&nbsp;<b>Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;estimates. The investment bank expects Apple to move 237 million units next year as compared to an estimated 234 million in 2021. In 2023, iPhone shipments are expected to jump to 249 million units.</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果 2022 年的销量预计会更好也就不足为奇了。<b>瑞士信贷</b>估计。该投资银行预计苹果明年将出售 2.37 亿辆汽车，而 2021 年预计为 2.34 亿辆。2023年，iPhone出货量预计将跃升至2.49亿部。</blockquote></p><p> More importantly, Apple's shipment growth in the 5G era can continue beyond the next two years as global 5G mobile subscriptions are expected&nbsp;to hit 3.36 billion in 2026, up from an estimated 569 million this year, as per&nbsp;<b>Ericsson</b>. This massive growth will be driven by 5G network rollouts in more markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, and North America.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，苹果在 5G 时代的出货量增长可能会持续到未来两年，因为全球 5G 移动用户预计将在 2026 年达到 33.6 亿，高于今年的估计 5.69 亿。<b>爱立信</b>5G网络在拉丁美洲、中东、欧洲和北美更多市场的推出将推动这一巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, if Apple continues to hold a strong 5G market share on account of its massive installed base and a&nbsp;budget-friendly device&nbsp;that could appeal to a wider audience in price-conscious markets, it can keep winning big in 5G smartphones in the long run. The iPhone 13 will play an important role in that regard, as it can encourage upgrades and bring more users into the Apple ecosystem because of the improvements it packs. That's a solid reason why investors should continue holding this&nbsp;5G stock, as it now has a new growth driver to count on.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果苹果凭借其庞大的安装基数和可以在注重价格的市场中吸引更广泛受众的预算友好型设备继续保持强劲的5G市场份额，那么从长远来看，它可以在5G智能手机领域继续大获全胜。iPhone 13将在这方面发挥重要作用，因为它可以鼓励升级，并因为它的改进而将更多用户带入苹果生态系统。这就是投资者应该继续持有这只 5G 股票的充分理由，因为它现在有了新的增长动力可以依靠。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Apple's iPhone 13 Should Be a Resounding Success<blockquote>这就是为什么苹果的 iPhone 13 应该取得巨大成功</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-21 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's iPhone 13 should end up encouraging more of its installed base to switch to 5G.</li>  <li>Incremental upgrades and accessibility to more markets through better carrier support will be tailwinds for the iPhone 13.</li>  <li>The iPhone 13 is the next step in Apple's 5G domination, which can continue for years.</li> </ul> <b>Apple</b>'s&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;iPhone 13 has arrived, and the initial reactions to the smartphone giant's latest and greatest device don't appear all that optimistic. Apple added the&nbsp;usual suite of upgrades&nbsp;to its latest iPhone models, packing in a better screen, faster processor, superior camera system, and bigger battery, among others. But the absence of any \"pathbreaking\" features has given birth to several memes on the internet, with some expressing disappointment at the lack of any substantial innovation.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的iPhone 13最终应该会鼓励更多的安装用户转向5G。</li><li>增量升级和通过更好的运营商支持进入更多市场将是iPhone 13的推动力。</li><li>iPhone 13是苹果5G统治地位的下一步，这种统治可能会持续数年。</li></ul><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的 iPhone 13 已经到来，人们对这家智能手机巨头最新、最棒的设备的最初反应似乎并不那么乐观。苹果为其最新的iPhone机型增加了通常的升级套件，包括更好的屏幕、更快的处理器、卓越的相机系统和更大的电池等。但由于缺乏任何“开创性”功能，互联网上出现了几个迷因，一些人对缺乏任何实质性创新表示失望。</blockquote></p><p> However, I think the iPhone 13 could turn out to be more successful than the iPhone 12, which was&nbsp;a runaway hit&nbsp;last year thanks to aggressive pricing and the addition of 5G.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为iPhone 13可能会比iPhone 12更成功，由于激进的定价和5G的加入，iPhone 12去年大受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> Let's see why that may be the case.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看为什么会这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1913a1265f134e83f36cb92109cd4f7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The iPhone 13 can continue the iPhone 12's terrific sales momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone 13可以延续iPhone 12的出色销售势头</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 helped Apple become&nbsp;a dominant player&nbsp;in the 5G smartphone market. Strategy Analytics estimates that Apple held&nbsp;29% of the 5G smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 12. The new iPhone models are expected to push that market share up to 40% as more consumers are expected to make the switch to Apple's 5G offerings.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12帮助苹果成为5G智能手机市场的主导者。Strategy Analytics估计，由于iPhone 12，苹果占据了5G智能手机市场29%的份额。随着越来越多的消费者预计会转向苹果的5G产品，新的iPhone机型预计将把市场份额推高至40%。</blockquote></p><p> That won't be surprising, as out of Apple's huge installed base of nearly 1.1 billion iPhones, less than 1% have a 5G-enabled device, at least according to a third-party research estimate. The iPhone 12 crossed 100 million units in less than seven months of its launch, and the iPhone 13 can carry forward that momentum since it is likely to appeal to those customers who have held off upgrading to a 5G device so far.</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为在苹果近 11 亿部 iPhone 的庞大安装基数中，至少根据第三方研究估计，只有不到 1% 的手机拥有支持 5G 的设备。iPhone 12在推出不到7个月的时间里就突破了1亿部，iPhone 13可以延续这一势头，因为它可能会吸引那些迄今为止推迟升级到5G设备的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has increased the storage of the base iPhone 13 models to 128 GB (gigabytes), which now start&nbsp;at $699 for the mini version and $799 for the 6.1-inch version, removing the 64 GB option altogether. While that's $100 higher than the price of the base models of the iPhone 12, the new prices are almost in line with the industry standard. The average selling price&nbsp;of a 5G smartphone stands at $634 as per IDC's estimate.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将iPhone 13基本型号的存储容量增加到128 GB（千兆字节），迷你版起价为699美元，6.1英寸版起价为799美元，完全取消了64 GB选项。虽然这比iPhone 12基本型号的价格高出100美元，但新价格几乎符合行业标准。根据IDC的估计，5G智能手机的平均售价为634美元。</blockquote></p><p> Throw in upgrades such as more 5G wireless bands for better connectivity and Apple's claims that the iPhone 13 models can last 1.5 to 2.5 hours more than the iPhone 12, and it becomes easy to see why those who haven't jumped on to the 5G bandwagon would take the plunge this time. Additionally, Apple points out that the increased number of 5G bands on the iPhone 13 will help it double&nbsp;its 5G support to more than 200 carriers spread across 60 countries.</p><p><blockquote>再加上升级，如更多的5G无线频段以实现更好的连接，以及苹果声称iPhone 13型号可以比iPhone 12多使用1.5到2.5小时，就很容易理解为什么那些没有加入5G潮流的人会冒险这次。此外，苹果指出，iPhone 13上5G频段数量的增加将有助于其对分布在60个国家的200多家运营商的5G支持翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this indicates that Apple is all set to bring more 5G users into its fold with the iPhone 13 given the improvements it has brought to the table. There may not be any eye-popping changes to this year's device, but it is likely to continue the impressive sales growth triggered by the iPhone 12 because of a huge installed base of users that are in an upgrade window.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明，鉴于iPhone 13带来的改进，苹果已经准备好通过iPhone 13吸引更多的5G用户。今年的设备可能不会有任何令人瞠目结舌的变化，但它很可能会延续iPhone 12引发的令人印象深刻的销售增长，因为巨大的安装用户群正处于升级窗口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's 5G dominance will get a shot in the arm</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的 5G 主导地位将得到一剂强心针</b></blockquote></p><p> Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives estimates&nbsp;that there are 250 million iPhone users with a device that's at least three years old. Also, we saw earlier that the number of customers without a 5G iPhone is even higher.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush Securities 分析师 Daniel Ives 估计，有 2.5 亿 iPhone 用户的设备至少使用了三年。此外，我们之前看到，没有5G iPhone的客户数量甚至更高。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it is not surprising to see why Apple's sales in 2022 are expected to be better, as per&nbsp;<b>Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;estimates. The investment bank expects Apple to move 237 million units next year as compared to an estimated 234 million in 2021. In 2023, iPhone shipments are expected to jump to 249 million units.</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果 2022 年的销量预计会更好也就不足为奇了。<b>瑞士信贷</b>估计。该投资银行预计苹果明年将出售 2.37 亿辆汽车，而 2021 年预计为 2.34 亿辆。2023年，iPhone出货量预计将跃升至2.49亿部。</blockquote></p><p> More importantly, Apple's shipment growth in the 5G era can continue beyond the next two years as global 5G mobile subscriptions are expected&nbsp;to hit 3.36 billion in 2026, up from an estimated 569 million this year, as per&nbsp;<b>Ericsson</b>. This massive growth will be driven by 5G network rollouts in more markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, and North America.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，苹果在 5G 时代的出货量增长可能会持续到未来两年，因为全球 5G 移动用户预计将在 2026 年达到 33.6 亿，高于今年的估计 5.69 亿。<b>爱立信</b>5G网络在拉丁美洲、中东、欧洲和北美更多市场的推出将推动这一巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, if Apple continues to hold a strong 5G market share on account of its massive installed base and a&nbsp;budget-friendly device&nbsp;that could appeal to a wider audience in price-conscious markets, it can keep winning big in 5G smartphones in the long run. The iPhone 13 will play an important role in that regard, as it can encourage upgrades and bring more users into the Apple ecosystem because of the improvements it packs. That's a solid reason why investors should continue holding this&nbsp;5G stock, as it now has a new growth driver to count on.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果苹果凭借其庞大的安装基数和可以在注重价格的市场中吸引更广泛受众的预算友好型设备继续保持强劲的5G市场份额，那么从长远来看，它可以在5G智能手机领域继续大获全胜。iPhone 13将在这方面发挥重要作用，因为它可以鼓励升级，并因为它的改进而将更多用户带入苹果生态系统。这就是投资者应该继续持有这只 5G 股票的充分理由，因为它现在有了新的增长动力可以依靠。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/20/why-apple-iphone-13-should-be-success/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/20/why-apple-iphone-13-should-be-success/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117848660","content_text":"Key Points\n\nApple's iPhone 13 should end up encouraging more of its installed base to switch to 5G.\nIncremental upgrades and accessibility to more markets through better carrier support will be tailwinds for the iPhone 13.\nThe iPhone 13 is the next step in Apple's 5G domination, which can continue for years.\n\nApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 13 has arrived, and the initial reactions to the smartphone giant's latest and greatest device don't appear all that optimistic. Apple added the usual suite of upgrades to its latest iPhone models, packing in a better screen, faster processor, superior camera system, and bigger battery, among others. But the absence of any \"pathbreaking\" features has given birth to several memes on the internet, with some expressing disappointment at the lack of any substantial innovation.\nHowever, I think the iPhone 13 could turn out to be more successful than the iPhone 12, which was a runaway hit last year thanks to aggressive pricing and the addition of 5G.\nLet's see why that may be the case.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe iPhone 13 can continue the iPhone 12's terrific sales momentum\nThe iPhone 12 helped Apple become a dominant player in the 5G smartphone market. Strategy Analytics estimates that Apple held 29% of the 5G smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 12. The new iPhone models are expected to push that market share up to 40% as more consumers are expected to make the switch to Apple's 5G offerings.\nThat won't be surprising, as out of Apple's huge installed base of nearly 1.1 billion iPhones, less than 1% have a 5G-enabled device, at least according to a third-party research estimate. The iPhone 12 crossed 100 million units in less than seven months of its launch, and the iPhone 13 can carry forward that momentum since it is likely to appeal to those customers who have held off upgrading to a 5G device so far.\nApple has increased the storage of the base iPhone 13 models to 128 GB (gigabytes), which now start at $699 for the mini version and $799 for the 6.1-inch version, removing the 64 GB option altogether. While that's $100 higher than the price of the base models of the iPhone 12, the new prices are almost in line with the industry standard. The average selling price of a 5G smartphone stands at $634 as per IDC's estimate.\nThrow in upgrades such as more 5G wireless bands for better connectivity and Apple's claims that the iPhone 13 models can last 1.5 to 2.5 hours more than the iPhone 12, and it becomes easy to see why those who haven't jumped on to the 5G bandwagon would take the plunge this time. Additionally, Apple points out that the increased number of 5G bands on the iPhone 13 will help it double its 5G support to more than 200 carriers spread across 60 countries.\nAll of this indicates that Apple is all set to bring more 5G users into its fold with the iPhone 13 given the improvements it has brought to the table. There may not be any eye-popping changes to this year's device, but it is likely to continue the impressive sales growth triggered by the iPhone 12 because of a huge installed base of users that are in an upgrade window.\nApple's 5G dominance will get a shot in the arm\nWedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives estimates that there are 250 million iPhone users with a device that's at least three years old. Also, we saw earlier that the number of customers without a 5G iPhone is even higher.\nAs a result, it is not surprising to see why Apple's sales in 2022 are expected to be better, as per Credit Suisse estimates. The investment bank expects Apple to move 237 million units next year as compared to an estimated 234 million in 2021. In 2023, iPhone shipments are expected to jump to 249 million units.\nMore importantly, Apple's shipment growth in the 5G era can continue beyond the next two years as global 5G mobile subscriptions are expected to hit 3.36 billion in 2026, up from an estimated 569 million this year, as per Ericsson. This massive growth will be driven by 5G network rollouts in more markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, and North America.\nSo, if Apple continues to hold a strong 5G market share on account of its massive installed base and a budget-friendly device that could appeal to a wider audience in price-conscious markets, it can keep winning big in 5G smartphones in the long run. The iPhone 13 will play an important role in that regard, as it can encourage upgrades and bring more users into the Apple ecosystem because of the improvements it packs. That's a solid reason why investors should continue holding this 5G stock, as it now has a new growth driver to count on.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880656348,"gmtCreate":1631057118284,"gmtModify":1632884985542,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. &nbsp;The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse","listText":"Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. &nbsp;The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse","text":"Bitcoin technology is still evolving and progressing. The moment some Mathematicians come up with efficient method of mining, then the price will colapse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880656348","repostId":"1148244903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148244903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631027025,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148244903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 23:03","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148244903","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend a","content":"<p>Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.</p><p><blockquote>在 ofEl Salvado 推出“比特币日”法律招标之前的长周末，比特币（和以太币）刚刚进行了第二次更大的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...</p><p><blockquote>比特币从5.3万美元暴跌至4.9万美元以下……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa53ca2dc78633e42d336039958a4be\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...</p><p><blockquote>以太币已经回落到3500美元以下（并且明显低于萨尔瓦多的兴奋）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad830058c11f71829955553d50022cf5\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Some chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.</p><p><blockquote>有人猜测，ETH 的举动是由 NFT 头条新闻后短期转向索拉诺引发的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptos Just Puked...<blockquote>密码刚刚吐了……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.</p><p><blockquote>在 ofEl Salvado 推出“比特币日”法律招标之前的长周末，比特币（和以太币）刚刚进行了第二次更大的下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...</p><p><blockquote>比特币从5.3万美元暴跌至4.9万美元以下……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa53ca2dc78633e42d336039958a4be\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...</p><p><blockquote>以太币已经回落到3500美元以下（并且明显低于萨尔瓦多的兴奋）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad830058c11f71829955553d50022cf5\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Some chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.</p><p><blockquote>有人猜测，ETH 的举动是由 NFT 头条新闻后短期转向索拉诺引发的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/cryptos-just-puked?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/cryptos-just-puked?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148244903","content_text":"Bitcoin (and Ethereum) just took a second, larger, leg lower after ramping across the long weekend ahead ofEl Salvador's 'Bitcoin Day' legal tender rollout.\nBitcoin plunged from $53k to below $49k...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd Ethereum has tumbled back below $3500 (and was notably less bid on the El Salvador excitement)...\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nSome chatter that the ETH move was triggered byshort-term rotation to Solano after NFT headlines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817564763,"gmtCreate":1630976010452,"gmtModify":1632904860752,"author":{"id":"3582064943200061","authorId":"3582064943200061","name":"EPK","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582064943200061","idStr":"3582064943200061"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy only what you know","listText":"Buy only what you know","text":"Buy only what you know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817564763","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}