不等了的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-04-27

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@坐等收钱:跳高点，我住挺高层的[开心] [开心] [开心]

2021-04-24

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2021-05-27

$蔚来(NIO)$[冷漠] [难过] [鬼脸] [难过] [难过]

2021-05-12

$星巴克(SBUX)$[微笑]

2021-06-09

$星巴克(SBUX)$22222222

2021-05-29

[难过] [财迷] [无语] [真香] [惊讶] [龇牙] [鬼脸] [愤怒]

贝索斯即将退休，26年来他的逆向工作法秘笈在这里

2021-05-23

$蔚来(NIO)$😣😞😟🤩🤪🤨🥳🥳

2021-05-10

888777

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2021-10-05

66666

2021-09-22

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One、双披萨团队、FAQ、单向门、双向门、逆向工作法、遗憾最小化模型等等。</p>\n<p>今天我们就讲讲亚马逊是如何运用逆向工作法的。</p>\n<p><b>什么是逆向工作法？</b></p>\n<p>1994年，贝索斯发现互联网的使用量在以每年23倍的速度增长，这个数字令他萌生了辞职创业的想法。但他并不确定自己创业是否会成功，在离职之前，他找到老板谈心，老板给他48小时做最后决定。</p>\n<p>为了尽可能做好这项重大决定，贝索斯努力寻找正确的思考框架，这个模型，后来被贝索斯称为“遗憾最小化模型”，这也是后来影响他一生的理论。</p>\n<p>什么是遗憾最小化模型？</p>\n<p>贝索斯在其自传中曾解释说：“我把自己想象成80岁的模样，并思考：现在回望我的一生，我要把遗憾事件的数量降到最低。……我知道在我80岁时，我不会因这次尝试而后悔，我不会后悔参与到互联网这个我认定是了不起的事情中来。<b>哪怕失败了，我也不会遗憾，但我可能会因为没有尝试而后悔不已。</b>”</p>\n<p>答案显而易见，贝索斯不会因为自己没有成为更高阶的职业经理人而后悔，但是如果没有创业他一定会后悔。</p>\n<p>1995年，亚马逊正式成立，4年后，这间书店的总市值就超过300亿美元，成为全球最大的互联网书店。</p>\n<p>贝佐斯后来将这种逻辑应用到他的个人生活中，每当他不得不做出重大决策时，他常常会以这种方式来思考问题。<b>即，从未来回望现在，从一个比较长的时间间距，来评估当下任何一个决策对自己的价值。这就是“逆向工作法”。</b></p>\n<p>“逆向工作法”，要求员工不是根据现有技术和能力来决定下一步动作，而是根据不变的价值去设想未来的需求，再倒推现在该做什么。</p>\n<p>贝索斯在2008年致股东的一封信中曾写道：“最终，技能都将过时。‘逆向工作法’要求我们必须探索新技能并加以磨练，永远不会在意迈出第一步时的那种不适与尴尬。”</p>\n<p>为什么贝索斯会认为技能最终都将会过时呢？<b>一般而言，有两种创新的驱动方式，一个就是上述我们提到的“逆向工作法”，另一个就是与之对应的“技能导向法”。</b></p>\n<p>而技能导向法通常主张“我们擅长做什么”、“通过做什么，还能再做什么？”尽管在很多层面，它确实是一种有用并且在一定程度上奏效的商业模式。但如果长期沉浸于此，就会丧失创新的动力。</p>\n<p>例如，技能导向型的代表，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司，它的创新往往是技术变革以及与乔布斯天马行空的想象力结合的产物。在这个方法下，企业更倾向于领导客户，改变消费观念，让顾客接受它的产品和理念。</p>\n<p>而贝索斯认为，“我一定要从消费者角度出发，消费者需要什么东西，反过来说，我做出消费者需要的东西出来。”所以，亚马逊网站设计的总体哲学，是将注意力放在顾客身上，而不是网站上。</p>\n<p>它们不是等到技术成熟了，再去打造产品，而是从顾客需求出发，适时推出新产品，并在推新产品的过程中不断探索新技术，这也使得他们在竞争中先人一步。这就是贝索斯“逆向工作法”的智慧。</p>\n<p><b>客户至上的核心</b></p>\n<p>谈到亚马逊的成功，贝索斯说，他经常会被问到一个问题：未来十年，会有什么样的变化？但他很少被问到：未来十年，什么是不变的？<b>他认为第二个问题比第一个问题更重要，因为你需要将你的战略建立在不变的事物上。</b></p>\n<p>那么，什么才是不变的东西呢？贝索斯认为在瞬息万变的零售业中，有三件事情是不变的：<b>第一，无限选择；第二，最低价格；第三，快速配送。</b></p>\n<p>贝佐斯认为，即便再过十年也不会有客户跳出来说：“哎，贝佐斯，Ilove you，I love 亚马逊，但是我就希望你那价格再贵一点，我希望你的配送慢一点。”</p>\n<p>贝佐斯认为，世界上有两种公司。一种是尽可能地说服客户支付一个高的利润，另一种是拼命把价格降到最低，把利润都让给消费者的公司。</p>\n<p>他认为这两种公司都能非常成功，不过亚马逊仍坚定地选择做后者。</p>\n<p>在《一网打尽》这本书中，是这样描写的：亚马逊 AWS （云）业务在长期没有竞争对手的情况下，主动降价51次。贝索斯说他不想重复“史蒂夫·乔布斯的错误”——将 iPhone 定价过高，从而使<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机成为吸引大规模竞争的众矢之的。</p>\n<p>而支撑上述三件事情背后的核心就是客户至上。亚马逊的文化就是，全世界最以客户为中心的公司。更进一步，<b>客户至上能够一直被推进下去的核心，就是逆向工作法。</b></p>\n<p>亚马逊采取“逆向工作法”的成功范例有很多。其中最典型的是Kindle，它花费了亚马逊数年时间。因为硬件亚马逊并不擅长，它们此前也从未设计和生产过，而且还牵涉到资金问题。但是，贝索斯并没有任何动摇。kindle的目标是打造一个生态圈，插足影视、音像市场。由此，亚马逊成为苹果iTunes生态系统最强有力的竞争对手。</p>\n<p>贝索斯指出，“这些创新性的大规模平台不是零和游戏，它们带来多赢局面，为开发者、企业、客户、作者和读者创造巨大的价值。”</p>\n<p>另一个知名案例是，智能硬件Echo（一款智能音箱）的开发。亚马逊智能硬件Echo部门副总裁迈克·乔治说，Echo的诞生，起源于一个伪造的、假装有抱负的新闻稿，这个新闻稿是亚马逊内部逆向工作法的第一步。</p>\n<p>每当有人想出一个新创意时，亚马逊的大佬们会问，这个产品对用户来说最重要的吗？它能够改变行业的游戏规则吗？我们能做出来吗？</p>\n<p>然后开始逆向工作法的第一步：先写出一份新闻稿，暂时忽略所需要的技术。写完新闻稿，亚马逊的团队还会写一个“常见问题解答”手册，里面会解答每个有可能受到的问题，就像真发了新闻稿一样。“我们以同样有抱负的方式回答这些问题，在那一刻忽略掉技术障碍。”</p>\n<p>接下来，与新产品相关的专家会展开具体讨论。从副总裁到初级软件开发人员，都会在一个屋子里共同讨论，这时每个人都有义务发言。因为亚马逊给工程师们的格言是：要有主见。</p>\n<p>亚马逊希望所有与新产品相关的人相信自己与这个项目有关。</p>\n<p>迈克·乔治说：“屋子里的人如果觉得哪里错了，势必要大声说出来，因为一旦整个团队都同意了，这代表所有人都赞成。”接下来，“如果我们觉得自己手里有了什么可做的，就会执行”。</p>\n<p>按照逆向工作法做出来的产品，不一定都能像Echo那样大卖，也会有失败，比如智能手机Firephone，但是亚马逊不会因为几次失败而轻易放弃项目。</p>\n<p><b>不变比变化更重要</b></p>\n<p>贝索斯领导下的亚马逊，曾抓住时代的窗口，顺势而为，成为全球最大的互联网书店。哈佛商业评论曾如此评价贝索斯：“他创造了一种商业运营的新哲学。”</p>\n<p>把战略建立在不变的事物上，贝索斯并非心血来潮，这是他深思熟虑的逻辑：“我们把精力放到这些不变的事物上，我们知道现在在上面投入的精力，会在10年里和10年后持续不断让我们获益。当你发现了一个对的事情，甚至10年后依然如一，那么它就值得你将大量的精力倾注于此。”</p>\n<p>在瞬息万变的互联网时代，客户需求随时在发生变化，但客户对于那些价值最大化，而费用最小化的产品，却一直是不变的事物。</p>\n<p>贝索斯读懂了商业上这个不变的事物，于是始终以客户为中心，为客户提供无限的选择、便捷的购物体验和最低的价格。</p>\n<p>26年来，贝索斯始终恪守以用户为中心，以不变应万变。他说：“最开始我们就是以客户为出发点，现今只是回到起点，为了服务好客户，我们学习所有需要的技巧、开发和建造所有需要的技术。”</p>\n<p><b>逆向工作法，就是要求以终为始。把这个思维贯彻到商业上来，就是真正以客户为中心。</b></p>\n<p>那么如何将这种方法论运用到个人或者职场中呢？</p>\n<p>如果你开始一个任务，但你不知道从哪里开始，你可以从任务的最后开始入手。比如，坐在一个安静的地方，闭上眼睛，想象你的任务完成了。然后，在任务截止前一天写下“任务完成”。然后，再仔细看看你的任务，并且分析每部分有多少来源、步骤，为每个步骤做标注。</p>\n<p>接下来，再决定每个部分花多少时间来完成。计算天数或小时，并写下来，然后从任务完成的日期开始倒数，并且标记出每个部分的最后期限。</p>\n<p>这种方法的关键是用新方法来审视你的时间规划。如果你从“已经完成”的观点来看你的项目，就可以更清晰地看到坚持自己设定的时间表的必要性。</p>\n<p>虽然这需要一些时间练习和适应，但你会发现它有助于你克服焦虑，从零开始努力。如果你从“已经完成的计划”开始，进行逆向计算，可能更容易通过障碍和最后期限。</p>\n<p>不过归根结底，商业决策是复杂的。亚马逊制定的这些流程和框架都是为了叠加对自己有利的机会，但如果事先知道会成功，就算不上是做实验了。</p>","source":"lsy1611194379707","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n贝索斯即将退休，26年来他的逆向工作法秘笈在这里\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-29 12:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4opP--O8sFCcepbZV2GXkA><strong>灯塔知行社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对贝索斯来说，一个具有感情色彩的日子马上就要来了。\n5月27日，亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯在年度股东大会上表示，新任CEO将在今年7月5日，也就是亚马逊成立27周年之际上任。贝索斯则将出任执行董事长，并专注于新项目和计划。而早在今年2月份，贝索斯就辞去了首席执行官一职。\n作为即将卸任的CEO，贝佐斯嘱咐了继任者们和亚马逊的未来：这个世界想让你变得跟它一样，因为这样会少很多摩擦，但是你要知道保持独特性...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4opP--O8sFCcepbZV2GXkA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da4df2c482f6c8869d5322e5aee231c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4opP--O8sFCcepbZV2GXkA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185728898","content_text":"对贝索斯来说，一个具有感情色彩的日子马上就要来了。\n5月27日，亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯在年度股东大会上表示，新任CEO将在今年7月5日，也就是亚马逊成立27周年之际上任。贝索斯则将出任执行董事长，并专注于新项目和计划。而早在今年2月份，贝索斯就辞去了首席执行官一职。\n作为即将卸任的CEO，贝佐斯嘱咐了继任者们和亚马逊的未来：这个世界想让你变得跟它一样，因为这样会少很多摩擦，但是你要知道保持独特性和差异化才能生存下去，即便为此你要付出巨大代价。\n26年来，贝佐斯一手创建了全美第一家网络零售公司亚马逊。今年4月份，《福布斯》发布了第35期全球亿万富豪榜，贝索斯再次登顶榜单第一，个人资产高达1770亿美元，这已是他连续四次蝉联《福布斯》全球富豪榜单。\n回顾亚马逊的历史，人们总是会问，它是如何始终保持活力，并且持续26年长久不衰的呢？关于它的各种成功秘笈以及方法论比比皆是，诸如飞轮效应、Day One、双披萨团队、FAQ、单向门、双向门、逆向工作法、遗憾最小化模型等等。\n今天我们就讲讲亚马逊是如何运用逆向工作法的。\n什么是逆向工作法？\n1994年，贝索斯发现互联网的使用量在以每年23倍的速度增长，这个数字令他萌生了辞职创业的想法。但他并不确定自己创业是否会成功，在离职之前，他找到老板谈心，老板给他48小时做最后决定。\n为了尽可能做好这项重大决定，贝索斯努力寻找正确的思考框架，这个模型，后来被贝索斯称为“遗憾最小化模型”，这也是后来影响他一生的理论。\n什么是遗憾最小化模型？\n贝索斯在其自传中曾解释说：“我把自己想象成80岁的模样，并思考：现在回望我的一生，我要把遗憾事件的数量降到最低。……我知道在我80岁时，我不会因这次尝试而后悔，我不会后悔参与到互联网这个我认定是了不起的事情中来。哪怕失败了，我也不会遗憾，但我可能会因为没有尝试而后悔不已。”\n答案显而易见，贝索斯不会因为自己没有成为更高阶的职业经理人而后悔，但是如果没有创业他一定会后悔。\n1995年，亚马逊正式成立，4年后，这间书店的总市值就超过300亿美元，成为全球最大的互联网书店。\n贝佐斯后来将这种逻辑应用到他的个人生活中，每当他不得不做出重大决策时，他常常会以这种方式来思考问题。即，从未来回望现在，从一个比较长的时间间距，来评估当下任何一个决策对自己的价值。这就是“逆向工作法”。\n“逆向工作法”，要求员工不是根据现有技术和能力来决定下一步动作，而是根据不变的价值去设想未来的需求，再倒推现在该做什么。\n贝索斯在2008年致股东的一封信中曾写道：“最终，技能都将过时。‘逆向工作法’要求我们必须探索新技能并加以磨练，永远不会在意迈出第一步时的那种不适与尴尬。”\n为什么贝索斯会认为技能最终都将会过时呢？一般而言，有两种创新的驱动方式，一个就是上述我们提到的“逆向工作法”，另一个就是与之对应的“技能导向法”。\n而技能导向法通常主张“我们擅长做什么”、“通过做什么，还能再做什么？”尽管在很多层面，它确实是一种有用并且在一定程度上奏效的商业模式。但如果长期沉浸于此，就会丧失创新的动力。\n例如，技能导向型的代表，苹果公司，它的创新往往是技术变革以及与乔布斯天马行空的想象力结合的产物。在这个方法下，企业更倾向于领导客户，改变消费观念，让顾客接受它的产品和理念。\n而贝索斯认为，“我一定要从消费者角度出发，消费者需要什么东西，反过来说，我做出消费者需要的东西出来。”所以，亚马逊网站设计的总体哲学，是将注意力放在顾客身上，而不是网站上。\n它们不是等到技术成熟了，再去打造产品，而是从顾客需求出发，适时推出新产品，并在推新产品的过程中不断探索新技术，这也使得他们在竞争中先人一步。这就是贝索斯“逆向工作法”的智慧。\n客户至上的核心\n谈到亚马逊的成功，贝索斯说，他经常会被问到一个问题：未来十年，会有什么样的变化？但他很少被问到：未来十年，什么是不变的？他认为第二个问题比第一个问题更重要，因为你需要将你的战略建立在不变的事物上。\n那么，什么才是不变的东西呢？贝索斯认为在瞬息万变的零售业中，有三件事情是不变的：第一，无限选择；第二，最低价格；第三，快速配送。\n贝佐斯认为，即便再过十年也不会有客户跳出来说：“哎，贝佐斯，Ilove you，I love 亚马逊，但是我就希望你那价格再贵一点，我希望你的配送慢一点。”\n贝佐斯认为，世界上有两种公司。一种是尽可能地说服客户支付一个高的利润，另一种是拼命把价格降到最低，把利润都让给消费者的公司。\n他认为这两种公司都能非常成功，不过亚马逊仍坚定地选择做后者。\n在《一网打尽》这本书中，是这样描写的：亚马逊 AWS （云）业务在长期没有竞争对手的情况下，主动降价51次。贝索斯说他不想重复“史蒂夫·乔布斯的错误”——将 iPhone 定价过高，从而使智能手机成为吸引大规模竞争的众矢之的。\n而支撑上述三件事情背后的核心就是客户至上。亚马逊的文化就是，全世界最以客户为中心的公司。更进一步，客户至上能够一直被推进下去的核心，就是逆向工作法。\n亚马逊采取“逆向工作法”的成功范例有很多。其中最典型的是Kindle，它花费了亚马逊数年时间。因为硬件亚马逊并不擅长，它们此前也从未设计和生产过，而且还牵涉到资金问题。但是，贝索斯并没有任何动摇。kindle的目标是打造一个生态圈，插足影视、音像市场。由此，亚马逊成为苹果iTunes生态系统最强有力的竞争对手。\n贝索斯指出，“这些创新性的大规模平台不是零和游戏，它们带来多赢局面，为开发者、企业、客户、作者和读者创造巨大的价值。”\n另一个知名案例是，智能硬件Echo（一款智能音箱）的开发。亚马逊智能硬件Echo部门副总裁迈克·乔治说，Echo的诞生，起源于一个伪造的、假装有抱负的新闻稿，这个新闻稿是亚马逊内部逆向工作法的第一步。\n每当有人想出一个新创意时，亚马逊的大佬们会问，这个产品对用户来说最重要的吗？它能够改变行业的游戏规则吗？我们能做出来吗？\n然后开始逆向工作法的第一步：先写出一份新闻稿，暂时忽略所需要的技术。写完新闻稿，亚马逊的团队还会写一个“常见问题解答”手册，里面会解答每个有可能受到的问题，就像真发了新闻稿一样。“我们以同样有抱负的方式回答这些问题，在那一刻忽略掉技术障碍。”\n接下来，与新产品相关的专家会展开具体讨论。从副总裁到初级软件开发人员，都会在一个屋子里共同讨论，这时每个人都有义务发言。因为亚马逊给工程师们的格言是：要有主见。\n亚马逊希望所有与新产品相关的人相信自己与这个项目有关。\n迈克·乔治说：“屋子里的人如果觉得哪里错了，势必要大声说出来，因为一旦整个团队都同意了，这代表所有人都赞成。”接下来，“如果我们觉得自己手里有了什么可做的，就会执行”。\n按照逆向工作法做出来的产品，不一定都能像Echo那样大卖，也会有失败，比如智能手机Firephone，但是亚马逊不会因为几次失败而轻易放弃项目。\n不变比变化更重要\n贝索斯领导下的亚马逊，曾抓住时代的窗口，顺势而为，成为全球最大的互联网书店。哈佛商业评论曾如此评价贝索斯：“他创造了一种商业运营的新哲学。”\n把战略建立在不变的事物上，贝索斯并非心血来潮，这是他深思熟虑的逻辑：“我们把精力放到这些不变的事物上，我们知道现在在上面投入的精力，会在10年里和10年后持续不断让我们获益。当你发现了一个对的事情，甚至10年后依然如一，那么它就值得你将大量的精力倾注于此。”\n在瞬息万变的互联网时代，客户需求随时在发生变化，但客户对于那些价值最大化，而费用最小化的产品，却一直是不变的事物。\n贝索斯读懂了商业上这个不变的事物，于是始终以客户为中心，为客户提供无限的选择、便捷的购物体验和最低的价格。\n26年来，贝索斯始终恪守以用户为中心，以不变应万变。他说：“最开始我们就是以客户为出发点，现今只是回到起点，为了服务好客户，我们学习所有需要的技巧、开发和建造所有需要的技术。”\n逆向工作法，就是要求以终为始。把这个思维贯彻到商业上来，就是真正以客户为中心。\n那么如何将这种方法论运用到个人或者职场中呢？\n如果你开始一个任务，但你不知道从哪里开始，你可以从任务的最后开始入手。比如，坐在一个安静的地方，闭上眼睛，想象你的任务完成了。然后，在任务截止前一天写下“任务完成”。然后，再仔细看看你的任务，并且分析每部分有多少来源、步骤，为每个步骤做标注。\n接下来，再决定每个部分花多少时间来完成。计算天数或小时，并写下来，然后从任务完成的日期开始倒数，并且标记出每个部分的最后期限。\n这种方法的关键是用新方法来审视你的时间规划。如果你从“已经完成”的观点来看你的项目，就可以更清晰地看到坚持自己设定的时间表的必要性。\n虽然这需要一些时间练习和适应，但你会发现它有助于你克服焦虑，从零开始努力。如果你从“已经完成的计划”开始，进行逆向计算，可能更容易通过障碍和最后期限。\n不过归根结底，商业决策是复杂的。亚马逊制定的这些流程和框架都是为了叠加对自己有利的机会，但如果事先知道会成功，就算不上是做实验了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":133675916,"gmtCreate":1621747385635,"gmtModify":1634186795874,"author":{"id":"3582266280017467","authorId":"3582266280017467","name":"不等了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b9127a8ba4400eb058c3150396b1fd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582266280017467","idStr":"3582266280017467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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