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2021-08-03

Really

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2021-07-29

Wow nice

Rio Tinto Pays $9.1 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record<blockquote>利润创历史新高，力拓支付91亿美元股息</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Hello

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2021-07-23

Nice

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2021-07-22

Nice

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2021-07-21

Up…..

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2021-07-20

$Bank of America(BAC)$Really

2021-07-20

Hello…

Worried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote>

2021-07-19

Ok sure

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-19

Good news???

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2021-07-19

Why????

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2021-07-16

Lame….

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2021-07-16

Hello….

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2021-07-15

Nice

Raise minimum S Pass pay to S$4,500 over time, target unfair hiring to ensure strong Singaporean core: MAS chief<blockquote>新加坡金融管理局局长：随着时间的推移，将S Pass最低工资提高至4,500新元，针对不公平招聘，以确保强大的新加坡核心</blockquote>

2021-07-13

Mkce

Why Tesla Stock Took Off Monday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票周一上涨</blockquote>

2021-07-06

Wow............

2021-06-28

Hi

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2021-06-28

Nice

Top strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote>

2021-06-22

$SINGTEL 10(Z77.SI)$Up

2021-06-20

Hi

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rally.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——全球最大的铁矿石开采商力拓集团公布了有史以来最高的中期利润，并将支付91亿美元的股息，因为该公司及其全球竞争对手从今年的大宗商品上涨中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Rio is the first of the majors to post earnings, kicking off a reporting season that’s expected to see record results across the board. The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the world’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic. The trillions of dollars poured into recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like iron ore and copper, driving prices sharply higher and sending inflation pressures rippling through the global economy.</p><p><blockquote>力拓是第一家公布财报的大型企业，拉开了财报季的序幕，预计业绩将全面创历史新高。该行业一直是世界摆脱疫情努力的最大受益者之一。注入复苏计划的数万亿美元点燃了对铁矿石和铜等大宗商品的需求，推动价格大幅上涨，并给全球经济带来通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s results are also the first period under the leadership of new Chief Executive Officer Jakob Stausholm, who was appointed after Jean-Sebastien Jacques left the company because of a backlash over Rio’s destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site last year. The surge in commodity prices means the new boss comes in on a high note for Rio, even as the company grapples with a slew of production setbacks that have dogged its operations in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>周三的业绩也是新任首席执行官雅各布·施陶霍姆(Jakob Stausholm)领导下的第一个时期，他是在让-塞巴斯蒂安·雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)因去年力拓破坏古代原住民遗址遭到强烈反对而离开公司后任命的。大宗商品价格飙升意味着新老板对力拓来说意义重大，尽管该公司正在努力应对近年来困扰其运营的一系列生产挫折。</blockquote></p><p> Disruptions caused by Covid, and especially the company’s ability to move workers to its sites, added to existing problems in the first half, especially around the development of a copper project in Mongolia and at its key profit-driving iron ore mines in Western Australia. Rio’s copper business has also seen production fall as Covid takes its toll.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情造成的干扰，尤其是该公司将工人转移到其工厂的能力，加剧了上半年现有的问题，特别是围绕蒙古铜项目的开发以及西澳大利亚主要的利润驱动铁矿。由于新冠疫情造成损失，力拓的铜业务产量也出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> “In the first half we experienced too much operation instability. We have to sharpen the consistency of our performance,” the CEO said on a media call. “While today’s results clearly demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base, our operational performance clearly is not where it has been in the past or where we want it to be.”</p><p><blockquote>“上半年我们经历了太多的运营不稳定。我们必须提高业绩的一致性，”首席执行官在媒体看涨期权上表示。“虽然今天的业绩清楚地表明了我们资产基础的基本质量，但我们的运营业绩显然没有达到过去的水平，也没有达到我们希望的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Stausholm also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for commodities demand in top consumer China.</p><p><blockquote>施陶霍姆还对最大消费国中国的大宗商品需求前景表示谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “The long-term potential for China is still intact but we probably have seen a non-sustainable high level of industrial development in some of the months in the first half of this year,” he said on a call with reporters.</p><p><blockquote>他在与记者举行的看涨期权上表示：“中国的长期潜力仍然完好无损，但我们可能在今年上半年的某些月份看到了不可持续的高水平工业发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Rio’s shares slipped 0.6% in London, in line with a wider decline among most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>力拓股价在伦敦下跌0.6%，与大多数同行的跌幅一致。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $12.2 billion from the same period last year as prices for iron ore and copper surged. The half-year payout -- which includes a special dividend of $3 billion -- is more than the mining giant returned to shareholders for the whole of 2020 and higher than analysts forecast.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，由于铁矿石和铜价格飙升，上半年基本收益较去年同期增长了一倍多，达到122亿美元。半年派息（其中包括30亿美元的特别股息）超过了这家矿业巨头2020年全年向股东返还的金额，也高于分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> While Rio’s paying out record amounts to shareholders, the company signaled this week it’s also keen to invest in growing production in key commodities -- particularly those that will benefit from the world’s shift toward green energy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管力拓向股东支付了创纪录的金额，但该公司本周表示，它也热衷于投资增加关键大宗商品的产量，特别是那些将受益于世界向绿色能源转变的大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> The company announced Tuesday it plans to spend $2.4 billion building a lithium mine in Serbia. While it’s the first big move by a mining major into lithium, used in rechargeable batteries, the investment reflects an ongoing push by the world’s biggest mining companies into “future facing” commodities like battery metals or fertilizer, at the same time that the industry is moving to get out of fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周二宣布，计划斥资24亿美元在塞尔维亚建设一座锂矿。虽然这是矿业巨头首次进军用于充电电池的锂领域，但这项投资反映出全球最大的矿业公司正在持续推动电池金属或化肥等“面向未来”的大宗商品，同时该行业正在摆脱化石燃料。</blockquote></p><p> “Rio appears to be shifting from austerity and capital returns to more of a focus on growth,” Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note. “While Rio had some operational issues in the period, the big picture here is that these are stellar financial results.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师克里斯托弗·拉费米纳(Christopher LaFemina)在一份报告中写道：“力拓似乎正在从紧缩和资本回报转向更加关注增长。”“虽然力拓在此期间遇到了一些运营问题，但总体而言，这些财务业绩非常出色。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rio Tinto Pays $9.1 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record<blockquote>利润创历史新高，力拓支付91亿美元股息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRio Tinto Pays $9.1 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record<blockquote>利润创历史新高，力拓支付91亿美元股息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 10:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, reported its highest-ever interim profit and will pay $9.1 billion in dividends as the company and its global rivals cash in on this year’s commodities rally.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——全球最大的铁矿石开采商力拓集团公布了有史以来最高的中期利润，并将支付91亿美元的股息，因为该公司及其全球竞争对手从今年的大宗商品上涨中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Rio is the first of the majors to post earnings, kicking off a reporting season that’s expected to see record results across the board. The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the world’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic. The trillions of dollars poured into recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like iron ore and copper, driving prices sharply higher and sending inflation pressures rippling through the global economy.</p><p><blockquote>力拓是第一家公布财报的大型企业，拉开了财报季的序幕，预计业绩将全面创历史新高。该行业一直是世界摆脱疫情努力的最大受益者之一。注入复苏计划的数万亿美元点燃了对铁矿石和铜等大宗商品的需求，推动价格大幅上涨，并给全球经济带来通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s results are also the first period under the leadership of new Chief Executive Officer Jakob Stausholm, who was appointed after Jean-Sebastien Jacques left the company because of a backlash over Rio’s destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site last year. The surge in commodity prices means the new boss comes in on a high note for Rio, even as the company grapples with a slew of production setbacks that have dogged its operations in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>周三的业绩也是新任首席执行官雅各布·施陶霍姆(Jakob Stausholm)领导下的第一个时期，他是在让-塞巴斯蒂安·雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)因去年力拓破坏古代原住民遗址遭到强烈反对而离开公司后任命的。大宗商品价格飙升意味着新老板对力拓来说意义重大，尽管该公司正在努力应对近年来困扰其运营的一系列生产挫折。</blockquote></p><p> Disruptions caused by Covid, and especially the company’s ability to move workers to its sites, added to existing problems in the first half, especially around the development of a copper project in Mongolia and at its key profit-driving iron ore mines in Western Australia. Rio’s copper business has also seen production fall as Covid takes its toll.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情造成的干扰，尤其是该公司将工人转移到其工厂的能力，加剧了上半年现有的问题，特别是围绕蒙古铜项目的开发以及西澳大利亚主要的利润驱动铁矿。由于新冠疫情造成损失，力拓的铜业务产量也出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> “In the first half we experienced too much operation instability. We have to sharpen the consistency of our performance,” the CEO said on a media call. “While today’s results clearly demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base, our operational performance clearly is not where it has been in the past or where we want it to be.”</p><p><blockquote>“上半年我们经历了太多的运营不稳定。我们必须提高业绩的一致性，”首席执行官在媒体看涨期权上表示。“虽然今天的业绩清楚地表明了我们资产基础的基本质量，但我们的运营业绩显然没有达到过去的水平，也没有达到我们希望的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Stausholm also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for commodities demand in top consumer China.</p><p><blockquote>施陶霍姆还对最大消费国中国的大宗商品需求前景表示谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “The long-term potential for China is still intact but we probably have seen a non-sustainable high level of industrial development in some of the months in the first half of this year,” he said on a call with reporters.</p><p><blockquote>他在与记者举行的看涨期权上表示：“中国的长期潜力仍然完好无损，但我们可能在今年上半年的某些月份看到了不可持续的高水平工业发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Rio’s shares slipped 0.6% in London, in line with a wider decline among most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>力拓股价在伦敦下跌0.6%，与大多数同行的跌幅一致。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $12.2 billion from the same period last year as prices for iron ore and copper surged. The half-year payout -- which includes a special dividend of $3 billion -- is more than the mining giant returned to shareholders for the whole of 2020 and higher than analysts forecast.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，由于铁矿石和铜价格飙升，上半年基本收益较去年同期增长了一倍多，达到122亿美元。半年派息（其中包括30亿美元的特别股息）超过了这家矿业巨头2020年全年向股东返还的金额，也高于分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> While Rio’s paying out record amounts to shareholders, the company signaled this week it’s also keen to invest in growing production in key commodities -- particularly those that will benefit from the world’s shift toward green energy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管力拓向股东支付了创纪录的金额，但该公司本周表示，它也热衷于投资增加关键大宗商品的产量，特别是那些将受益于世界向绿色能源转变的大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> The company announced Tuesday it plans to spend $2.4 billion building a lithium mine in Serbia. While it’s the first big move by a mining major into lithium, used in rechargeable batteries, the investment reflects an ongoing push by the world’s biggest mining companies into “future facing” commodities like battery metals or fertilizer, at the same time that the industry is moving to get out of fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周二宣布，计划斥资24亿美元在塞尔维亚建设一座锂矿。虽然这是矿业巨头首次进军用于充电电池的锂领域，但这项投资反映出全球最大的矿业公司正在持续推动电池金属或化肥等“面向未来”的大宗商品，同时该行业正在摆脱化石燃料。</blockquote></p><p> “Rio appears to be shifting from austerity and capital returns to more of a focus on growth,” Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note. “While Rio had some operational issues in the period, the big picture here is that these are stellar financial results.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师克里斯托弗·拉费米纳(Christopher LaFemina)在一份报告中写道：“力拓似乎正在从紧缩和资本回报转向更加关注增长。”“虽然力拓在此期间遇到了一些运营问题，但总体而言，这些财务业绩非常出色。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-pays-9-1-063339102.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIO":"力拓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-pays-9-1-063339102.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142598506","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, reported its highest-ever interim profit and will pay $9.1 billion in dividends as the company and its global rivals cash in on this year’s commodities rally.\nRio is the first of the majors to post earnings, kicking off a reporting season that’s expected to see record results across the board. The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the world’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic. The trillions of dollars poured into recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like iron ore and copper, driving prices sharply higher and sending inflation pressures rippling through the global economy.\nWednesday’s results are also the first period under the leadership of new Chief Executive Officer Jakob Stausholm, who was appointed after Jean-Sebastien Jacques left the company because of a backlash over Rio’s destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site last year. The surge in commodity prices means the new boss comes in on a high note for Rio, even as the company grapples with a slew of production setbacks that have dogged its operations in recent years.\nDisruptions caused by Covid, and especially the company’s ability to move workers to its sites, added to existing problems in the first half, especially around the development of a copper project in Mongolia and at its key profit-driving iron ore mines in Western Australia. Rio’s copper business has also seen production fall as Covid takes its toll.\n“In the first half we experienced too much operation instability. We have to sharpen the consistency of our performance,” the CEO said on a media call. “While today’s results clearly demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base, our operational performance clearly is not where it has been in the past or where we want it to be.”\nStausholm also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for commodities demand in top consumer China.\n“The long-term potential for China is still intact but we probably have seen a non-sustainable high level of industrial development in some of the months in the first half of this year,” he said on a call with reporters.\nRio’s shares slipped 0.6% in London, in line with a wider decline among most of its peers.\nThe company reported first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $12.2 billion from the same period last year as prices for iron ore and copper surged. The half-year payout -- which includes a special dividend of $3 billion -- is more than the mining giant returned to shareholders for the whole of 2020 and higher than analysts forecast.\nWhile Rio’s paying out record amounts to shareholders, the company signaled this week it’s also keen to invest in growing production in key commodities -- particularly those that will benefit from the world’s shift toward green energy.\nThe company announced Tuesday it plans to spend $2.4 billion building a lithium mine in Serbia. While it’s the first big move by a mining major into lithium, used in rechargeable batteries, the investment reflects an ongoing push by the world’s biggest mining companies into “future facing” commodities like battery metals or fertilizer, at the same time that the industry is moving to get out of fossil fuels.\n“Rio appears to be shifting from austerity and capital returns to more of a focus on growth,” Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note. “While Rio had some operational issues in the period, the big picture here is that these are stellar financial results.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803817141,"gmtCreate":1627431768083,"gmtModify":1633765102773,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803817141","repostId":"2154948228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175951914,"gmtCreate":1627003704138,"gmtModify":1633768883129,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175951914","repostId":"2153673675","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176700112,"gmtCreate":1626914312936,"gmtModify":1633769834834,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176700112","repostId":"2153640590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178557173,"gmtCreate":1626828939692,"gmtModify":1633770637639,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up…..","listText":"Up…..","text":"Up…..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178557173","repostId":"2153694734","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171462788,"gmtCreate":1626757210844,"gmtModify":1631885277850,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>Really","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>Really","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$Really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171462788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171466778,"gmtCreate":1626757157194,"gmtModify":1633771300243,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello…","listText":"Hello…","text":"Hello…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171466778","repostId":"1129846769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129846769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626751789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129846769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Worried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129846769","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the ","content":"<p>In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the news. If there is a storm visible anywhere, he explains, you write “Storm threatens the town,” even if the storm is nowhere near and is unlikely to hit. If—as expected—the storm never hits, you just write the follow up: “Town spared by storm.”</p><p><blockquote>在20世纪90年代的电影《航运新闻》中，一位老记者向凯文·史派西解释如何报道新闻。他解释说，如果任何地方都有可见的风暴，你就会写“风暴威胁着城镇”，即使风暴不在附近，也不太可能来袭。如果——正如预期的那样——风暴从未袭击，你只需写下后续内容：“城镇幸免于风暴。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers may be excused for thinking something similar about the latest stories about looming, threatening, surging, terrifying inflation. Yes, the inflation forecasts were surging months ago, and hit 8-year highs. Had they continued there would be grounds to worry. But they haven’t continued. On the contrary, they’ve been falling for two months. The bond market’s 5-year inflation forecast is now lower than it was in mid-March. The market sees five-year inflation running at around 2.6%. That’s higher than we’ve been used to for a decade, but it’s nothing to cause any significant alarm.</p><p><blockquote>读者可能会对最近关于迫在眉睫、威胁、飙升、可怕的通货膨胀的故事有类似的想法。是的，几个月前通胀预测飙升，并创下8年来的新高。如果他们继续下去，就有理由担心。但他们没有继续。相反，他们已经下跌了两个月。债券市场的5年通胀预期现在低于3月中旬。市场预计五年通胀率约为2.6%。这比我们十年来所习惯的要高，但这并没有引起任何重大恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> That can change, of course. Maybe it will. We’ll see.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种情况可能会改变。也许会。我们走着瞧。</blockquote></p><p> But with all this talk I got to thinking about the obvious question. If serious inflation really does hit, what can we do about it? How can we protect our investments?</p><p><blockquote>但是通过这些谈话，我开始思考一个显而易见的问题。如果严重的通货膨胀真的来袭，我们能做些什么呢？我们如何保护我们的投资？</blockquote></p><p> That’s an especially key question for today’s retirees and those expecting to retire soon. When we’re older we’re generally advised to keep most of our money in more “conservative” investments, meaning things like bonds, that involve less risk. Someone in their 20s or 30s may not worry unduly if their retirement savings plunge 30% in a market rout or an inflationary spiral. For someone in their 60s, let alone older, that can become a major financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>对于今天的退休人员和那些预计很快退休的人来说，这是一个特别关键的问题。当我们长大后，通常建议我们将大部分资金投资于更“保守”的投资，即债券等风险较小的投资。如果20多岁或30多岁的人的退休储蓄在市场暴跌或通胀螺旋中暴跌30%，他们可能不会过度担心。对于60多岁的人来说，更不用说老年人了，这可能会成为一场重大的财务危机。</blockquote></p><p> So I went back and dug up the information from the last, infamous inflationary spiral in the 1970s, when consumer price inflation often topped 10% a year. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus pointed out that no one ever walks through the same stream twice, because the second time it’s not the same stream, and we’re not the same person. Everything changes. There is no guarantee the next inflationary boom, even if it happens, will look anything like the last one — any more than we should assume that it will be accompanied by outbreaks of disco music and flared jeans.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我回去挖掘了20世纪70年代上一次臭名昭著的通胀螺旋的信息，当时消费者价格通胀经常超过每年10%。希腊哲学家赫拉克利特指出，没有人会两次走过同一条小溪，因为第二次就不是同一条小溪了，我们也不是同一个人了。一切都变了。不能保证下一次通胀繁荣，即使发生了，看起来也会像上一次一样——就像我们不应该假设它会伴随着迪斯科音乐和喇叭牛仔裤的爆发一样。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless the chart above shows the total returns, after adjusting for inflation, of various asset classes from December 1971 to December 1981. (I used those dates because the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or NAREIT, starts their data series then.) The data on energy stocks came from data compiled by professor Ken French at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上图显示了1971年12月至1981年12月各种资产类别经通胀调整后的总回报。（我使用这些日期是因为全国房地产投资信托协会（NAREIT）在那时开始他们的数据系列。）能源股的数据来自达特茅斯学院塔克商学院肯·弗伦奇教授汇编的数据。</blockquote></p><p> This is what happened to your purchasing power if you invested in these assets and hung on for 10 years. (I’ve excluded gold, which is a different story.)</p><p><blockquote>如果你投资这些资产并坚持10年，你的购买力就会发生这种情况。（我已经排除了黄金，这是一个不同的故事。）</blockquote></p><p> The key standout is that you really didn’t want to own Treasury bonds. The near 40% loss of purchasing power over 10 years is somewhat notional—it is derived from the compound annual returns on 10 Year Treasurys compiled by New York University’s Stern School of Business, divided by the consumer-price index—but tells a story nonetheless. (In Great Britain, where inflation was even worse, government bonds during the 1970s became known as “certificates of confiscation.” Ouch.)</p><p><blockquote>关键的突出之处在于，你真的不想拥有国债。10年内购买力损失近40%在某种程度上是名义上的——它来自纽约大学斯特恩商学院编制的10年期美国国债的复合年回报率除以消费者价格指数——但仍然讲述了一个故事。（在通货膨胀更严重的英国，20世纪70年代的政府债券被称为“没收证书”。哎哟。）</blockquote></p><p> Holding them cost you money. Lots of it.</p><p><blockquote>拿着它们要花钱。很多。</blockquote></p><p> You could argue that the danger today is even greater, simply because the yields on long-term Treasury bonds are so low. Federal Reserve quantitative easing, bond buying, and zero interest-rate policies have left Treasury yields at their lowest on record—which means the turns would be a disaster if inflation reared its head.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会说，今天的危险甚至更大，仅仅是因为长期国债的收益率如此之低。美联储的量化宽松、债券购买和零利率政策使美国国债收益率处于有记录以来的最低水平——这意味着如果通胀抬头，这将是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate bonds and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;were also terrible investments. It’s worth remembering that these are real term losses over a decade, which means investors didn’t just lose a lot of money—they also lost a lot of time.</p><p><blockquote>公司债券和标普500也是糟糕的投资。值得记住的是，这些是十年来的实际定期损失，这意味着投资者不仅损失了很多钱，还损失了很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Utility stocks weren’t great, but they held up better. And Treasury bills—short-term paper—did better still. But once again you were going backward when you needed to be going forwards.</p><p><blockquote>公用事业股表现不佳，但表现较好。短期票据——国库券——表现更好。但是当你需要前进的时候，你又一次倒退了。</blockquote></p><p> No one who remembers the 1970s will be surprised that energy companies boomed. Less well-remembered, maybe, is that REITs also did pretty well. These numbers, incidentally, represented property-owning REITs and excluded mortgage REITs, which own loans.</p><p><blockquote>任何记得20世纪70年代的人都不会对能源公司的蓬勃发展感到惊讶。也许不太为人所知的是，房地产投资信托基金的表现也相当不错。顺便说一句，这些数字代表拥有财产的房地产投资信托基金，不包括拥有贷款的抵押房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> But there are two caveats to this. The first is that of course energy stocks did well, because a key driver of inflation in the 1970s was the rise of OPEC and two oil embargoes it imposed on the West for political reasons. Cue Heraclitus. There is no particular reason to assume that the next inflationary surge will be the same.</p><p><blockquote>但对此有两个警告。首先，能源股当然表现良好，因为20世纪70年代通胀的一个关键驱动因素是欧佩克的崛起及其出于政治原因对西方实施的两次石油禁运。提示赫拉克利特。没有特别的理由假设下一次通胀飙升会是一样的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The second caveat is that although REITs ended up doing well, they were volatile along the way. In particular, REIT prices collapsed in the OPEC-driven recession of 1972-4. And according to FactSet, U.S. REITs today already look pretty expensive on some measures. For instance it reckons that the forecast dividend yield on the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (a reasonable benchmark for the industry) is just 2.9% — by far the lowest since it was launched in 2004. Looking through NAREIT data, I can’t find a moment since 1971 when the overall yield on REITs was this low. During the real estate bubble in 2007, incidentally, the yield bottomed out no lower than 3.6%</p><p><blockquote>第二个警告是，尽管房地产投资信托基金最终表现良好，但一路上波动较大。特别是，房地产投资信托基金价格在1972-1974年欧佩克引发的经济衰退中暴跌。根据FactSet的数据，从某些指标来看，如今的美国房地产投资信托基金看起来已经相当昂贵。例如，它估计Vanguard Real Estate ETF（该行业的合理基准）的预测股息收益率仅为2.9%，是自2004年推出以来的最低水平。翻阅NAREIT数据，自1971年以来，我找不到REITs整体收益率如此之低的时刻。2007年房地产泡沫期间，顺带一提，收益率见底不低于3.6%</blockquote></p><p> So it may be that REITs offer less inflation protection today than we would hope.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今房地产投资信托基金提供的通胀保护可能比我们希望的要少。</blockquote></p><p> One key difference in the 1970s is that there were no “inflation-protected” Treasury bonds to keep investors protected. So-called TIPS are in theory almost the perfect investment for retirees. They are issued by the U.S. government and their coupons are safe against default. Meanwhile their coupons effectively adjust to reflect changes in consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代的一个关键区别是，没有“通胀保值”国债来保护投资者。理论上，所谓的小费几乎是退休人员的完美投资。它们由美国政府发行，其优惠券不会违约。与此同时，他们的优惠券有效地调整以反映消费价格的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The problem today is that TIPS—like almost everything else in the bond market—look incredibly expensive. Most TIPS already lock in an actual loss of purchasing power if you buy them today. For example if you buy 5 year TIPS bonds and hold them for 5 years you’ll end up losing 9% of your purchasing power. And 30-year TIPS bonds offer the same 9% loss, though stretched out over 30 years.</p><p><blockquote>今天的问题是，TIPS——就像债券市场上的几乎所有东西一样——看起来非常昂贵。如果你今天购买，大多数建议已经锁定了购买力的实际损失。例如，如果你购买5年期TIPS债券并持有5年，你最终会损失9%的购买力。30年期TIPS债券的损失同样为9%，尽管期限延长了30年。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not very compelling. And it shows the risks that the government’s policy responses have created for those in retirement and near it.</p><p><blockquote>这不是很引人注目。它还显示了政府的政策应对给退休和接近退休年龄的人带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Worried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWorried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the news. If there is a storm visible anywhere, he explains, you write “Storm threatens the town,” even if the storm is nowhere near and is unlikely to hit. If—as expected—the storm never hits, you just write the follow up: “Town spared by storm.”</p><p><blockquote>在20世纪90年代的电影《航运新闻》中，一位老记者向凯文·史派西解释如何报道新闻。他解释说，如果任何地方都有可见的风暴，你就会写“风暴威胁着城镇”，即使风暴不在附近，也不太可能来袭。如果——正如预期的那样——风暴从未袭击，你只需写下后续内容：“城镇幸免于风暴。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers may be excused for thinking something similar about the latest stories about looming, threatening, surging, terrifying inflation. Yes, the inflation forecasts were surging months ago, and hit 8-year highs. Had they continued there would be grounds to worry. But they haven’t continued. On the contrary, they’ve been falling for two months. The bond market’s 5-year inflation forecast is now lower than it was in mid-March. The market sees five-year inflation running at around 2.6%. That’s higher than we’ve been used to for a decade, but it’s nothing to cause any significant alarm.</p><p><blockquote>读者可能会对最近关于迫在眉睫、威胁、飙升、可怕的通货膨胀的故事有类似的想法。是的，几个月前通胀预测飙升，并创下8年来的新高。如果他们继续下去，就有理由担心。但他们没有继续。相反，他们已经下跌了两个月。债券市场的5年通胀预期现在低于3月中旬。市场预计五年通胀率约为2.6%。这比我们十年来所习惯的要高，但这并没有引起任何重大恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> That can change, of course. Maybe it will. We’ll see.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种情况可能会改变。也许会。我们走着瞧。</blockquote></p><p> But with all this talk I got to thinking about the obvious question. If serious inflation really does hit, what can we do about it? How can we protect our investments?</p><p><blockquote>但是通过这些谈话，我开始思考一个显而易见的问题。如果严重的通货膨胀真的来袭，我们能做些什么呢？我们如何保护我们的投资？</blockquote></p><p> That’s an especially key question for today’s retirees and those expecting to retire soon. When we’re older we’re generally advised to keep most of our money in more “conservative” investments, meaning things like bonds, that involve less risk. Someone in their 20s or 30s may not worry unduly if their retirement savings plunge 30% in a market rout or an inflationary spiral. For someone in their 60s, let alone older, that can become a major financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>对于今天的退休人员和那些预计很快退休的人来说，这是一个特别关键的问题。当我们长大后，通常建议我们将大部分资金投资于更“保守”的投资，即债券等风险较小的投资。如果20多岁或30多岁的人的退休储蓄在市场暴跌或通胀螺旋中暴跌30%，他们可能不会过度担心。对于60多岁的人来说，更不用说老年人了，这可能会成为一场重大的财务危机。</blockquote></p><p> So I went back and dug up the information from the last, infamous inflationary spiral in the 1970s, when consumer price inflation often topped 10% a year. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus pointed out that no one ever walks through the same stream twice, because the second time it’s not the same stream, and we’re not the same person. Everything changes. There is no guarantee the next inflationary boom, even if it happens, will look anything like the last one — any more than we should assume that it will be accompanied by outbreaks of disco music and flared jeans.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我回去挖掘了20世纪70年代上一次臭名昭著的通胀螺旋的信息，当时消费者价格通胀经常超过每年10%。希腊哲学家赫拉克利特指出，没有人会两次走过同一条小溪，因为第二次就不是同一条小溪了，我们也不是同一个人了。一切都变了。不能保证下一次通胀繁荣，即使发生了，看起来也会像上一次一样——就像我们不应该假设它会伴随着迪斯科音乐和喇叭牛仔裤的爆发一样。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless the chart above shows the total returns, after adjusting for inflation, of various asset classes from December 1971 to December 1981. (I used those dates because the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or NAREIT, starts their data series then.) The data on energy stocks came from data compiled by professor Ken French at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上图显示了1971年12月至1981年12月各种资产类别经通胀调整后的总回报。（我使用这些日期是因为全国房地产投资信托协会（NAREIT）在那时开始他们的数据系列。）能源股的数据来自达特茅斯学院塔克商学院肯·弗伦奇教授汇编的数据。</blockquote></p><p> This is what happened to your purchasing power if you invested in these assets and hung on for 10 years. (I’ve excluded gold, which is a different story.)</p><p><blockquote>如果你投资这些资产并坚持10年，你的购买力就会发生这种情况。（我已经排除了黄金，这是一个不同的故事。）</blockquote></p><p> The key standout is that you really didn’t want to own Treasury bonds. The near 40% loss of purchasing power over 10 years is somewhat notional—it is derived from the compound annual returns on 10 Year Treasurys compiled by New York University’s Stern School of Business, divided by the consumer-price index—but tells a story nonetheless. (In Great Britain, where inflation was even worse, government bonds during the 1970s became known as “certificates of confiscation.” Ouch.)</p><p><blockquote>关键的突出之处在于，你真的不想拥有国债。10年内购买力损失近40%在某种程度上是名义上的——它来自纽约大学斯特恩商学院编制的10年期美国国债的复合年回报率除以消费者价格指数——但仍然讲述了一个故事。（在通货膨胀更严重的英国，20世纪70年代的政府债券被称为“没收证书”。哎哟。）</blockquote></p><p> Holding them cost you money. Lots of it.</p><p><blockquote>拿着它们要花钱。很多。</blockquote></p><p> You could argue that the danger today is even greater, simply because the yields on long-term Treasury bonds are so low. Federal Reserve quantitative easing, bond buying, and zero interest-rate policies have left Treasury yields at their lowest on record—which means the turns would be a disaster if inflation reared its head.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会说，今天的危险甚至更大，仅仅是因为长期国债的收益率如此之低。美联储的量化宽松、债券购买和零利率政策使美国国债收益率处于有记录以来的最低水平——这意味着如果通胀抬头，这将是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate bonds and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;were also terrible investments. It’s worth remembering that these are real term losses over a decade, which means investors didn’t just lose a lot of money—they also lost a lot of time.</p><p><blockquote>公司债券和标普500也是糟糕的投资。值得记住的是，这些是十年来的实际定期损失，这意味着投资者不仅损失了很多钱，还损失了很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Utility stocks weren’t great, but they held up better. And Treasury bills—short-term paper—did better still. But once again you were going backward when you needed to be going forwards.</p><p><blockquote>公用事业股表现不佳，但表现较好。短期票据——国库券——表现更好。但是当你需要前进的时候，你又一次倒退了。</blockquote></p><p> No one who remembers the 1970s will be surprised that energy companies boomed. Less well-remembered, maybe, is that REITs also did pretty well. These numbers, incidentally, represented property-owning REITs and excluded mortgage REITs, which own loans.</p><p><blockquote>任何记得20世纪70年代的人都不会对能源公司的蓬勃发展感到惊讶。也许不太为人所知的是，房地产投资信托基金的表现也相当不错。顺便说一句，这些数字代表拥有财产的房地产投资信托基金，不包括拥有贷款的抵押房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> But there are two caveats to this. The first is that of course energy stocks did well, because a key driver of inflation in the 1970s was the rise of OPEC and two oil embargoes it imposed on the West for political reasons. Cue Heraclitus. There is no particular reason to assume that the next inflationary surge will be the same.</p><p><blockquote>但对此有两个警告。首先，能源股当然表现良好，因为20世纪70年代通胀的一个关键驱动因素是欧佩克的崛起及其出于政治原因对西方实施的两次石油禁运。提示赫拉克利特。没有特别的理由假设下一次通胀飙升会是一样的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The second caveat is that although REITs ended up doing well, they were volatile along the way. In particular, REIT prices collapsed in the OPEC-driven recession of 1972-4. And according to FactSet, U.S. REITs today already look pretty expensive on some measures. For instance it reckons that the forecast dividend yield on the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (a reasonable benchmark for the industry) is just 2.9% — by far the lowest since it was launched in 2004. Looking through NAREIT data, I can’t find a moment since 1971 when the overall yield on REITs was this low. During the real estate bubble in 2007, incidentally, the yield bottomed out no lower than 3.6%</p><p><blockquote>第二个警告是，尽管房地产投资信托基金最终表现良好，但一路上波动较大。特别是，房地产投资信托基金价格在1972-1974年欧佩克引发的经济衰退中暴跌。根据FactSet的数据，从某些指标来看，如今的美国房地产投资信托基金看起来已经相当昂贵。例如，它估计Vanguard Real Estate ETF（该行业的合理基准）的预测股息收益率仅为2.9%，是自2004年推出以来的最低水平。翻阅NAREIT数据，自1971年以来，我找不到REITs整体收益率如此之低的时刻。2007年房地产泡沫期间，顺带一提，收益率见底不低于3.6%</blockquote></p><p> So it may be that REITs offer less inflation protection today than we would hope.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今房地产投资信托基金提供的通胀保护可能比我们希望的要少。</blockquote></p><p> One key difference in the 1970s is that there were no “inflation-protected” Treasury bonds to keep investors protected. So-called TIPS are in theory almost the perfect investment for retirees. They are issued by the U.S. government and their coupons are safe against default. Meanwhile their coupons effectively adjust to reflect changes in consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代的一个关键区别是，没有“通胀保值”国债来保护投资者。理论上，所谓的小费几乎是退休人员的完美投资。它们由美国政府发行，其优惠券不会违约。与此同时，他们的优惠券有效地调整以反映消费价格的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The problem today is that TIPS—like almost everything else in the bond market—look incredibly expensive. Most TIPS already lock in an actual loss of purchasing power if you buy them today. For example if you buy 5 year TIPS bonds and hold them for 5 years you’ll end up losing 9% of your purchasing power. And 30-year TIPS bonds offer the same 9% loss, though stretched out over 30 years.</p><p><blockquote>今天的问题是，TIPS——就像债券市场上的几乎所有东西一样——看起来非常昂贵。如果你今天购买，大多数建议已经锁定了购买力的实际损失。例如，如果你购买5年期TIPS债券并持有5年，你最终会损失9%的购买力。30年期TIPS债券的损失同样为9%，尽管期限延长了30年。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not very compelling. And it shows the risks that the government’s policy responses have created for those in retirement and near it.</p><p><blockquote>这不是很引人注目。它还显示了政府的政策应对给退休和接近退休年龄的人带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-inflation-heres-how-investments-did-in-the-1970s-11626658251?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-inflation-heres-how-investments-did-in-the-1970s-11626658251?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1129846769","content_text":"In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the news. If there is a storm visible anywhere, he explains, you write “Storm threatens the town,” even if the storm is nowhere near and is unlikely to hit. If—as expected—the storm never hits, you just write the follow up: “Town spared by storm.”\nReaders may be excused for thinking something similar about the latest stories about looming, threatening, surging, terrifying inflation. Yes, the inflation forecasts were surging months ago, and hit 8-year highs. Had they continued there would be grounds to worry. But they haven’t continued. On the contrary, they’ve been falling for two months. The bond market’s 5-year inflation forecast is now lower than it was in mid-March. The market sees five-year inflation running at around 2.6%. That’s higher than we’ve been used to for a decade, but it’s nothing to cause any significant alarm.\nThat can change, of course. Maybe it will. We’ll see.\nBut with all this talk I got to thinking about the obvious question. If serious inflation really does hit, what can we do about it? How can we protect our investments?\nThat’s an especially key question for today’s retirees and those expecting to retire soon. When we’re older we’re generally advised to keep most of our money in more “conservative” investments, meaning things like bonds, that involve less risk. Someone in their 20s or 30s may not worry unduly if their retirement savings plunge 30% in a market rout or an inflationary spiral. For someone in their 60s, let alone older, that can become a major financial crisis.\nSo I went back and dug up the information from the last, infamous inflationary spiral in the 1970s, when consumer price inflation often topped 10% a year. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus pointed out that no one ever walks through the same stream twice, because the second time it’s not the same stream, and we’re not the same person. Everything changes. There is no guarantee the next inflationary boom, even if it happens, will look anything like the last one — any more than we should assume that it will be accompanied by outbreaks of disco music and flared jeans.\nNonetheless the chart above shows the total returns, after adjusting for inflation, of various asset classes from December 1971 to December 1981. (I used those dates because the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or NAREIT, starts their data series then.) The data on energy stocks came from data compiled by professor Ken French at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business.\nThis is what happened to your purchasing power if you invested in these assets and hung on for 10 years. (I’ve excluded gold, which is a different story.)\nThe key standout is that you really didn’t want to own Treasury bonds. The near 40% loss of purchasing power over 10 years is somewhat notional—it is derived from the compound annual returns on 10 Year Treasurys compiled by New York University’s Stern School of Business, divided by the consumer-price index—but tells a story nonetheless. (In Great Britain, where inflation was even worse, government bonds during the 1970s became known as “certificates of confiscation.” Ouch.)\nHolding them cost you money. Lots of it.\nYou could argue that the danger today is even greater, simply because the yields on long-term Treasury bonds are so low. Federal Reserve quantitative easing, bond buying, and zero interest-rate policies have left Treasury yields at their lowest on record—which means the turns would be a disaster if inflation reared its head.\nCorporate bonds and the S&P 500 were also terrible investments. It’s worth remembering that these are real term losses over a decade, which means investors didn’t just lose a lot of money—they also lost a lot of time.\nUtility stocks weren’t great, but they held up better. And Treasury bills—short-term paper—did better still. But once again you were going backward when you needed to be going forwards.\nNo one who remembers the 1970s will be surprised that energy companies boomed. Less well-remembered, maybe, is that REITs also did pretty well. These numbers, incidentally, represented property-owning REITs and excluded mortgage REITs, which own loans.\nBut there are two caveats to this. The first is that of course energy stocks did well, because a key driver of inflation in the 1970s was the rise of OPEC and two oil embargoes it imposed on the West for political reasons. Cue Heraclitus. There is no particular reason to assume that the next inflationary surge will be the same.\nThe second caveat is that although REITs ended up doing well, they were volatile along the way. In particular, REIT prices collapsed in the OPEC-driven recession of 1972-4. And according to FactSet, U.S. REITs today already look pretty expensive on some measures. For instance it reckons that the forecast dividend yield on the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (a reasonable benchmark for the industry) is just 2.9% — by far the lowest since it was launched in 2004. Looking through NAREIT data, I can’t find a moment since 1971 when the overall yield on REITs was this low. During the real estate bubble in 2007, incidentally, the yield bottomed out no lower than 3.6%\nSo it may be that REITs offer less inflation protection today than we would hope.\nOne key difference in the 1970s is that there were no “inflation-protected” Treasury bonds to keep investors protected. So-called TIPS are in theory almost the perfect investment for retirees. They are issued by the U.S. government and their coupons are safe against default. Meanwhile their coupons effectively adjust to reflect changes in consumer prices.\nThe problem today is that TIPS—like almost everything else in the bond market—look incredibly expensive. Most TIPS already lock in an actual loss of purchasing power if you buy them today. For example if you buy 5 year TIPS bonds and hold them for 5 years you’ll end up losing 9% of your purchasing power. And 30-year TIPS bonds offer the same 9% loss, though stretched out over 30 years.\nIt’s not very compelling. And it shows the risks that the government’s policy responses have created for those in retirement and near it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173732090,"gmtCreate":1626685665110,"gmtModify":1633924945960,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok sure","listText":"Ok sure","text":"Ok sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173732090","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173736655,"gmtCreate":1626685616877,"gmtModify":1633924946183,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news???","listText":"Good news???","text":"Good news???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173736655","repostId":"1161502200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173736050,"gmtCreate":1626685580370,"gmtModify":1633924946404,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why????","listText":"Why????","text":"Why????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173736050","repostId":"2152634207","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170084575,"gmtCreate":1626395858197,"gmtModify":1633927185730,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lame….","listText":"Lame….","text":"Lame….","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170084575","repostId":"1153964696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170082753,"gmtCreate":1626395820772,"gmtModify":1633927187275,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello….","listText":"Hello….","text":"Hello….","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170082753","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144422029,"gmtCreate":1626311216161,"gmtModify":1633928013388,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144422029","repostId":"1119459818","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119459818","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626310155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119459818?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 08:49","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Raise minimum S Pass pay to S$4,500 over time, target unfair hiring to ensure strong Singaporean core: MAS chief<blockquote>新加坡金融管理局局长：随着时间的推移，将S Pass最低工资提高至4,500新元，针对不公平招聘，以确保强大的新加坡核心</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119459818","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"[SINGAPORE] For Singapore to be truly innovative, it should turn education and healthcare into major","content":"<p><div> [SINGAPORE] For Singapore to be truly innovative, it should turn education and healthcare into major exportable services, digitalise its economy end-to-end, and take the lead in Asia on the green ...</p><p><blockquote><div>【新加坡】新加坡要想真正创新，就应该将教育和医疗保健转变为主要的可出口服务，实现经济端到端数字化，并在绿色领域引领亚洲...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/tighten-salary-criteria-target-discriminatory-hiring-to-ensure-strong-singaporean\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/tighten-salary-criteria-target-discriminatory-hiring-to-ensure-strong-singaporean\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Raise minimum S Pass pay to S$4,500 over time, target unfair hiring to ensure strong Singaporean core: MAS chief<blockquote>新加坡金融管理局局长：随着时间的推移，将S Pass最低工资提高至4,500新元，针对不公平招聘，以确保强大的新加坡核心</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRaise minimum S Pass pay to S$4,500 over time, target unfair hiring to ensure strong Singaporean core: MAS chief<blockquote>新加坡金融管理局局长：随着时间的推移，将S Pass最低工资提高至4,500新元，针对不公平招聘，以确保强大的新加坡核心</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 08:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> [SINGAPORE] For Singapore to be truly innovative, it should turn education and healthcare into major exportable services, digitalise its economy end-to-end, and take the lead in Asia on the green ...</p><p><blockquote><div>【新加坡】新加坡要想真正创新，就应该将教育和医疗保健转变为主要的可出口服务，实现经济端到端数字化，并在绿色领域引领亚洲...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/tighten-salary-criteria-target-discriminatory-hiring-to-ensure-strong-singaporean\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/tighten-salary-criteria-target-discriminatory-hiring-to-ensure-strong-singaporean\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/tighten-salary-criteria-target-discriminatory-hiring-to-ensure-strong-singaporean\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/tighten-salary-criteria-target-discriminatory-hiring-to-ensure-strong-singaporean","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119459818","content_text":"[SINGAPORE] For Singapore to be truly innovative, it should turn education and healthcare into major exportable services, digitalise its economy end-to-end, and take the lead in Asia on the green economy.\nIt also needs a strong Singaporean core to work alongside the best global talents, said Singapore's central bank chief on Wednesday.\nSpeaking on the topic \"An Innovative Economy\" at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP), Monetary Authority of Singapore managing director Ravi Menon said some steps that could be taken include raising the qualifying salaries of foreign workers here, as well as stemming discriminatory hiring practices.\nIt was the second of four lectures he is giving in his capacity as IPS's ninth S R Nathan Fellow. The fellowship advances research on public policy and governance.\nMr Menon cited education and healthcare as two areas that can be turned into major exportable services.\n\"Can Singapore be the Oxbridge of Asia for education and the Mayo of Asia for healthcare?\n\"Given the trust premium Singapore enjoys and the high quality of our education and healthcare systems, coupled with the rise of a more discerning Asian middle class, the stars might be aligned for such a pivot.\"\nThe export intensity of the country's education and healthcare services, he observed, has not improved over the years.\nIn 2017, about 13 per cent of the output in education services was exported, just slightly higher than the 12 per cent in 2010; while the export intensity of healthcare services fell from 15 to 10 per cent during this period.\nHe added that Singapore cannot be a high-wage, low-cost economy.\nInstead, it must become a high-productivity, high-wage, high-cost economy - where most people can bear the higher costs because they have higher wages, and can earn higher wages because they have higher productivity.\nCiting studies which show that countries with high labour costs can also be highly competitive, he said: \"We should aim to create a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle of higher wages and costs accompanied by higher productivity, as well as higher purchasing power and willingness to pay for higher quality domestic services.\n\"It will not be easy and the transition has to be carefully managed. But it's worth trying.\"\nDIGITALISING END-TO-END\nBeing digital end-to-end means two things, said Mr Menon: Digitalising business processes within a firm by fully integrating front-end operations with the back-end; and ensuring that digital systems across firms are interoperable.\nA comprehensive digital ecosystem, he said, requires collective governance, common standards, open architecture and interoperable infrastructure.\n\"This means taking a risk-based approach to regulating new technology. Regulators need to keep pace with innovation but regulation itself must not front-run innovation.\"\nHe highlighted the importance of transparency in fostering trust in a digital economy. Users, he said, must be given clear explanations of what data is being used, how it is being used, as well as the consequences of decisions made using the data.\nThe authorities should also seriously consider mandating basic cyber hygiene for all businesses engaged in the digital economy, he said, calling actions such as installing security patches promptly and data encryption \"as essential as fire safety requirements\".\nSINGAPOREAN CORE WITH GLOBAL TALENT\nThe Republic's two-pronged talent strategy - of growing a strong Singaporean core while attracting talents from abroad to complement the workforce - is coming under strain amid growing unhappiness among locals over job competition from foreigners, said Mr Menon.\nHe cautioned that the country's value proposition as an innovative business hub will be at \"serious risk\" if it restricts the flow of talent. But the anxieties that some Singaporeans feel about the influx of foreigners are real and need to be addressed too, he said.\n\"We need to resolve this affective divide... Singapore cannot afford to be seen either as lacking in opportunity for our own citizens or unwelcoming of foreigners.\"\nHe suggested doing two things: First, continue to raise the minimum qualifying salary for S Pass holders and Employment Pass (EP) holders over time, with the minimum qualifying salary for S Pass holders pegged somewhere closer to the median monthly income, or around S$4,500.\nS Pass holders currently earn at least S$2,500 a month, with older, more experienced applicants needing higher salaries to qualify.\nHe cautioned against tightening EPs at the higher end, as it could lead to the loss of adjacent local jobs.\nThis is because highly skilled EP holders tend to create employment for locals by facilitating business expansion into new areas, rather than substituting for them, he said.\nSecond, more directly target discriminatory hiring in favour of foreigners in some firms.\n\"Rather than curtail the inflow of foreign workers and thereby restrain business growth and job opportunities for locals, we might want to consider directly punishing the individuals in the firm found to have engaged in discriminatory hiring,\" he said.\nSuch measures could include imposing financial penalties, reducing bonuses and freezing promotions.\nMr Menon stressed that being an international hub is the only way a small country like Singapore can aspire to First World standards of living.\nSingapore, he said, attained its current level of prosperity by being an international centre tapping international talents and serving an international market. But this also means that it must accept a higher foreign presence in Singapore than is the case in other countries.\n\"We can accept this as long as the foreigners who come here are of high quality, help to expand economic activity, and thereby help to create job opportunities for Singaporeans... and Singaporeans are always treated fairly.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142183962,"gmtCreate":1626136481057,"gmtModify":1633929817344,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mkce","listText":"Mkce","text":"Mkce","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142183962","repostId":"1198229178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198229178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626135918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198229178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Stock Took Off Monday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票周一上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198229178","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla rolled out its FSD beta version 9 over the weekend.\n\nWhat happened\nFull self-driving is here (","content":"<p>  Tesla rolled out its FSD beta version 9 over the weekend.  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在周末推出了FSD beta版本9。<b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Full self-driving is here (kind of), and<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock is up 3.4% as of 10:55 a.m. EDT.</p><p><blockquote>全自动驾驶已经到来（某种程度上），并且<b>特斯拉</b>截至美国东部时间上午10:55，（纳斯达克：TSLA）股价上涨3.4%。</blockquote></p><p> On midnight Friday,the electric vehicle pioneerbegan sending out over-the-air software updates upgrading thousands of Tesla owners who had paid in advance for Full Self Driving (FSD) capability to version 9 of the beta feature.</p><p><blockquote>周五午夜，这家电动汽车先驱开始发送无线软件更新，将数千名已预付全自动驾驶(FSD)功能费用的特斯拉车主升级到测试版功能的第9版。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> It's been a long wait. CEO Elon Musk has been promising that Tesla would roll out version 9 since 2018, immediately creating \"over a million cars\" with essentially autonomous driving capability -- so it's clear why this news has investors excited. Early reviewers of the new software report that \"driving visualization\" [has received] a massive improvement,\" while the verdict on \"actual driving behavior\" is not yet in.</p><p><blockquote>等了很久。首席执行官Elon Musk一直承诺，自2018年以来，特斯拉将推出第9版，立即制造出“超过100万辆具有本质上自动驾驶功能的汽车”——因此很明显，为什么这一消息让投资者感到兴奋。新软件的早期评论者报告说，“驾驶可视化”[已经]得到了巨大的改进，而“实际驾驶行为”的结论还没有出来。</blockquote></p><p> And many Tesla owners may have to wait a bit longer to take FSD for a spin.</p><p><blockquote>许多特斯拉车主可能需要等待更长的时间才能使用FSD。</blockquote></p><p> As industry site Electrek reports, the new version of the software relies on Tesla Vision for its guidance, driving based on camera readings rather than a mix of cameras and radar. The company is warning, however, that the software \"may do the wrong thing at the worst time,\" and that drivers using the feature \"must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention on the road.\" While monitoring how the software performs in the real world, therefore, Tesla is limiting the rollout to just \"early limited access Beta\" distribution -- meaning not everyone who has paid for FSD will get it immediately.</p><p><blockquote>据行业网站Electrek报道，新版本的软件依赖特斯拉视觉进行指导，根据摄像头读数而不是摄像头和雷达的组合进行驾驶。然而，该公司警告说，该软件“可能会在最糟糕的时候做错事”，使用该功能的驾驶员“必须始终将手放在方向盘上，并在路上格外注意”。因此，在监控该软件在现实世界中的表现时，特斯拉将推出限制为“早期有限访问测试版”分发，这意味着并非每个为FSD付费的人都会立即获得它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> What does it mean for investors? Elon Musk has finally delivered on his promise. As is often the case, he took a bit longer to deliver than initially promised -- but as is often also the case, he did eventually deliver.</p><p><blockquote>这对投资者意味着什么？埃隆·马斯克终于兑现了他的承诺。通常情况下，他花了比最初承诺的更长的时间来兑现——但通常情况下，他最终还是兑现了。</blockquote></p><p> Now, we need to see if this version was worth the wait. The better the autonomous driving software turns out to be, the more willing folks -- who have hesitated up till now to pay $10,000 to buy it -- will become. And that will mean more money in Tesla's pocket, and more profits for Tesla shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们需要看看这个版本是否值得等待。自动驾驶软件越好，人们就越愿意支付10,000美元购买它——他们到目前为止一直犹豫是否要支付10,000美元。这将意味着特斯拉口袋里有更多的钱，特斯拉股东也有更多的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, if rumors that Tesla is planning to raise the price on FSD to $14,000 turn out to be true, the arrival of FSD could be just the thing needed to keepTesla's stock price moving higher.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，如果特斯拉计划将FSD价格提高至14,000美元的传言属实，那么FSD的到来可能正是特斯拉股价持续走高所需要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Stock Took Off Monday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票周一上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Stock Took Off Monday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票周一上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 08:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Tesla rolled out its FSD beta version 9 over the weekend.  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在周末推出了FSD beta版本9。<b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Full self-driving is here (kind of), and<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock is up 3.4% as of 10:55 a.m. EDT.</p><p><blockquote>全自动驾驶已经到来（某种程度上），并且<b>特斯拉</b>截至美国东部时间上午10:55，（纳斯达克：TSLA）股价上涨3.4%。</blockquote></p><p> On midnight Friday,the electric vehicle pioneerbegan sending out over-the-air software updates upgrading thousands of Tesla owners who had paid in advance for Full Self Driving (FSD) capability to version 9 of the beta feature.</p><p><blockquote>周五午夜，这家电动汽车先驱开始发送无线软件更新，将数千名已预付全自动驾驶(FSD)功能费用的特斯拉车主升级到测试版功能的第9版。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> It's been a long wait. CEO Elon Musk has been promising that Tesla would roll out version 9 since 2018, immediately creating \"over a million cars\" with essentially autonomous driving capability -- so it's clear why this news has investors excited. Early reviewers of the new software report that \"driving visualization\" [has received] a massive improvement,\" while the verdict on \"actual driving behavior\" is not yet in.</p><p><blockquote>等了很久。首席执行官Elon Musk一直承诺，自2018年以来，特斯拉将推出第9版，立即制造出“超过100万辆具有本质上自动驾驶功能的汽车”——因此很明显，为什么这一消息让投资者感到兴奋。新软件的早期评论者报告说，“驾驶可视化”[已经]得到了巨大的改进，而“实际驾驶行为”的结论还没有出来。</blockquote></p><p> And many Tesla owners may have to wait a bit longer to take FSD for a spin.</p><p><blockquote>许多特斯拉车主可能需要等待更长的时间才能使用FSD。</blockquote></p><p> As industry site Electrek reports, the new version of the software relies on Tesla Vision for its guidance, driving based on camera readings rather than a mix of cameras and radar. The company is warning, however, that the software \"may do the wrong thing at the worst time,\" and that drivers using the feature \"must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention on the road.\" While monitoring how the software performs in the real world, therefore, Tesla is limiting the rollout to just \"early limited access Beta\" distribution -- meaning not everyone who has paid for FSD will get it immediately.</p><p><blockquote>据行业网站Electrek报道，新版本的软件依赖特斯拉视觉进行指导，根据摄像头读数而不是摄像头和雷达的组合进行驾驶。然而，该公司警告说，该软件“可能会在最糟糕的时候做错事”，使用该功能的驾驶员“必须始终将手放在方向盘上，并在路上格外注意”。因此，在监控该软件在现实世界中的表现时，特斯拉将推出限制为“早期有限访问测试版”分发，这意味着并非每个为FSD付费的人都会立即获得它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> What does it mean for investors? Elon Musk has finally delivered on his promise. As is often the case, he took a bit longer to deliver than initially promised -- but as is often also the case, he did eventually deliver.</p><p><blockquote>这对投资者意味着什么？埃隆·马斯克终于兑现了他的承诺。通常情况下，他花了比最初承诺的更长的时间来兑现——但通常情况下，他最终还是兑现了。</blockquote></p><p> Now, we need to see if this version was worth the wait. The better the autonomous driving software turns out to be, the more willing folks -- who have hesitated up till now to pay $10,000 to buy it -- will become. And that will mean more money in Tesla's pocket, and more profits for Tesla shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们需要看看这个版本是否值得等待。自动驾驶软件越好，人们就越愿意支付10,000美元购买它——他们到目前为止一直犹豫是否要支付10,000美元。这将意味着特斯拉口袋里有更多的钱，特斯拉股东也有更多的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, if rumors that Tesla is planning to raise the price on FSD to $14,000 turn out to be true, the arrival of FSD could be just the thing needed to keepTesla's stock price moving higher.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，如果特斯拉计划将FSD价格提高至14,000美元的传言属实，那么FSD的到来可能正是特斯拉股价持续走高所需要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/12/why-tesla-stock-took-off-today/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/12/why-tesla-stock-took-off-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198229178","content_text":"Tesla rolled out its FSD beta version 9 over the weekend.\n\nWhat happened\nFull self-driving is here (kind of), andTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock is up 3.4% as of 10:55 a.m. EDT.\nOn midnight Friday,the electric vehicle pioneerbegan sending out over-the-air software updates upgrading thousands of Tesla owners who had paid in advance for Full Self Driving (FSD) capability to version 9 of the beta feature.\nSo what\nIt's been a long wait. CEO Elon Musk has been promising that Tesla would roll out version 9 since 2018, immediately creating \"over a million cars\" with essentially autonomous driving capability -- so it's clear why this news has investors excited. Early reviewers of the new software report that \"driving visualization\" [has received] a massive improvement,\" while the verdict on \"actual driving behavior\" is not yet in.\nAnd many Tesla owners may have to wait a bit longer to take FSD for a spin.\nAs industry site Electrek reports, the new version of the software relies on Tesla Vision for its guidance, driving based on camera readings rather than a mix of cameras and radar. The company is warning, however, that the software \"may do the wrong thing at the worst time,\" and that drivers using the feature \"must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention on the road.\" While monitoring how the software performs in the real world, therefore, Tesla is limiting the rollout to just \"early limited access Beta\" distribution -- meaning not everyone who has paid for FSD will get it immediately.\nNow what\nWhat does it mean for investors? Elon Musk has finally delivered on his promise. As is often the case, he took a bit longer to deliver than initially promised -- but as is often also the case, he did eventually deliver.\nNow, we need to see if this version was worth the wait. The better the autonomous driving software turns out to be, the more willing folks -- who have hesitated up till now to pay $10,000 to buy it -- will become. And that will mean more money in Tesla's pocket, and more profits for Tesla shareholders.\nIndeed, if rumors that Tesla is planning to raise the price on FSD to $14,000 turn out to be true, the arrival of FSD could be just the thing needed to keepTesla's stock price moving higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157667350,"gmtCreate":1625580775870,"gmtModify":1633939403255,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow............","listText":"Wow............","text":"Wow............","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c5c24af65eed298f80d74266651e1b2","width":"750","height":"1335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157667350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127139003,"gmtCreate":1624838871302,"gmtModify":1633948246123,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127139003","repostId":"2146700256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127130967,"gmtCreate":1624838849359,"gmtModify":1633948246953,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127130967","repostId":"1161764161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161764161","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624836456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161764161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 07:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161764161","media":"CNBC","summary":"Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thu","content":"<p>Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔明顿信托基金(Wilmington Trust)的梅根·舒(Meghan Shue)将于周四开始公布下半年的行动计划。</blockquote></p><p> Her strategy includes an overexposure to cyclicals, and she favors&nbsp;financials,energy,commodities,materials&nbsp;and&nbsp;industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她的策略包括过度投资周期性股票，她青睐金融、能源、大宗商品、材料和工业。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see the economic recovery continuing and being a tailwind for stocks,\" the firm's head of investment strategy told CNBC's \"Trading Nation\" on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>该公司投资策略主管周五对CNBC的“Trading Nation”节目表示：“我们认为经济复苏将持续，并成为股市的顺风车。”</blockquote></p><p> Unless this week sees a dramatic sell-off, the market will start the year's final six months around record highs.</p><p><blockquote>除非本周出现大幅抛售，否则市场将在今年最后六个月的历史高点附近开始。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;just wrapped up&nbsp;its best week since February,closing at 4,280.70 — an all-time high. The&nbsp;Dow&nbsp;closed up 3.4% for the week, notching its best weekly performance since mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数刚刚结束了自2月份以来表现最好的一周，收于4,280.70点，创下历史新高。道指本周收涨3.4%，创3月中旬以来最佳单周表现。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-heavy&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;closed slightly lower on Friday. But it’s up 2.35% for the week.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克周五小幅收低。但本周上涨了2.35%。</blockquote></p><p> Shue is optimistic on the broader market, but she also predicts turbulence ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Shue对大盘持乐观态度，但她也预测未来将出现动荡。</blockquote></p><p> “We are expecting some perhaps consolidation, maybe a pullback from here,” said Shue, a CNBC contributor.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC撰稿人Shue表示：“我们预计可能会出现一些整合，也可能会出现回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue, who oversees $141.5 billion in assets, is neutral on growth stocks,particularly Big Tech. She views the group as a key part of a diversified portfolio. However, Shue would avoid getting too deep into the group because she expects a rising10-year Treasury note yield&nbsp;to act as a headwind. According to Shue, it should reach at least 2% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Shue管理着1,415亿美元的资产，他对成长型股票，尤其是大型科技股持中立态度。她认为该集团是多元化投资组合的关键部分。然而，Shue会避免深入该集团，因为她预计10年期国债收益率上升将成为阻力。Shue表示，未来12个月内至少应达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> ‘It’s really important not to forget about technology’</p><p><blockquote>“不要忘记技术非常重要”</blockquote></p><p> “Technology is really a long term story. So, it might have some challenges if our interest rate view pans out. But it’s such an integral part of the economy,” she noted. “It’s really important not to forget about technology even if there is perhaps some choppiness over the next few months.”</p><p><blockquote>“技术确实是一个长期的故事。因此，如果我们的利率观点成功，它可能会面临一些挑战。但它是经济不可或缺的一部分，”她指出。“即使未来几个月可能会出现一些波动，也不要忘记技术，这一点非常重要。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue expects the record rally to moderate over the next six months. She sees low to mid-single percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>Shue预计创纪录的涨势将在未来六个月内放缓。她认为单一百分比涨幅为中低。</blockquote></p><p> “Every indication that we have so far in the economic data is that we are probably at or just beyond the peak pace of economic activity perhaps of this cycle,” said Shue. “We are moving into probably a deceleration phase.”</p><p><blockquote>舒表示：“迄今为止，经济数据中的所有迹象都表明，我们可能正处于或刚刚超过本周期经济活动的峰值速度。”“我们可能正在进入减速阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet, Shue suggests that shouldn’t spook investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，舒表示，这不应该吓到投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “The deceleration may actually still be above trend growth for the U.S. and the global economy,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示：“美国和全球经济的减速实际上可能仍高于趋势增长。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, Shue is underweightconsumer staples,utilitiesandREITS, which are considered defensive plays.</p><p><blockquote>目前，Shue减持了消费必需品、公用事业和REITs，这些股票被认为是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a pretty incredible run over the past 12 months, and we have clearly been bouncing off of the bottom,” Shue said.</p><p><blockquote>“过去12个月的表现相当令人难以置信，我们显然已经从谷底反弹，”舒说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1609915699154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNBC</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 07:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔明顿信托基金(Wilmington Trust)的梅根·舒(Meghan Shue)将于周四开始公布下半年的行动计划。</blockquote></p><p> Her strategy includes an overexposure to cyclicals, and she favors&nbsp;financials,energy,commodities,materials&nbsp;and&nbsp;industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她的策略包括过度投资周期性股票，她青睐金融、能源、大宗商品、材料和工业。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see the economic recovery continuing and being a tailwind for stocks,\" the firm's head of investment strategy told CNBC's \"Trading Nation\" on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>该公司投资策略主管周五对CNBC的“Trading Nation”节目表示：“我们认为经济复苏将持续，并成为股市的顺风车。”</blockquote></p><p> Unless this week sees a dramatic sell-off, the market will start the year's final six months around record highs.</p><p><blockquote>除非本周出现大幅抛售，否则市场将在今年最后六个月的历史高点附近开始。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;just wrapped up&nbsp;its best week since February,closing at 4,280.70 — an all-time high. The&nbsp;Dow&nbsp;closed up 3.4% for the week, notching its best weekly performance since mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数刚刚结束了自2月份以来表现最好的一周，收于4,280.70点，创下历史新高。道指本周收涨3.4%，创3月中旬以来最佳单周表现。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-heavy&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;closed slightly lower on Friday. But it’s up 2.35% for the week.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克周五小幅收低。但本周上涨了2.35%。</blockquote></p><p> Shue is optimistic on the broader market, but she also predicts turbulence ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Shue对大盘持乐观态度，但她也预测未来将出现动荡。</blockquote></p><p> “We are expecting some perhaps consolidation, maybe a pullback from here,” said Shue, a CNBC contributor.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC撰稿人Shue表示：“我们预计可能会出现一些整合，也可能会出现回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue, who oversees $141.5 billion in assets, is neutral on growth stocks,particularly Big Tech. She views the group as a key part of a diversified portfolio. However, Shue would avoid getting too deep into the group because she expects a rising10-year Treasury note yield&nbsp;to act as a headwind. According to Shue, it should reach at least 2% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Shue管理着1,415亿美元的资产，他对成长型股票，尤其是大型科技股持中立态度。她认为该集团是多元化投资组合的关键部分。然而，Shue会避免深入该集团，因为她预计10年期国债收益率上升将成为阻力。Shue表示，未来12个月内至少应达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> ‘It’s really important not to forget about technology’</p><p><blockquote>“不要忘记技术非常重要”</blockquote></p><p> “Technology is really a long term story. So, it might have some challenges if our interest rate view pans out. But it’s such an integral part of the economy,” she noted. “It’s really important not to forget about technology even if there is perhaps some choppiness over the next few months.”</p><p><blockquote>“技术确实是一个长期的故事。因此，如果我们的利率观点成功，它可能会面临一些挑战。但它是经济不可或缺的一部分，”她指出。“即使未来几个月可能会出现一些波动，也不要忘记技术，这一点非常重要。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue expects the record rally to moderate over the next six months. She sees low to mid-single percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>Shue预计创纪录的涨势将在未来六个月内放缓。她认为单一百分比涨幅为中低。</blockquote></p><p> “Every indication that we have so far in the economic data is that we are probably at or just beyond the peak pace of economic activity perhaps of this cycle,” said Shue. “We are moving into probably a deceleration phase.”</p><p><blockquote>舒表示：“迄今为止，经济数据中的所有迹象都表明，我们可能正处于或刚刚超过本周期经济活动的峰值速度。”“我们可能正在进入减速阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet, Shue suggests that shouldn’t spook investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，舒表示，这不应该吓到投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “The deceleration may actually still be above trend growth for the U.S. and the global economy,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示：“美国和全球经济的减速实际上可能仍高于趋势增长。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, Shue is underweightconsumer staples,utilitiesandREITS, which are considered defensive plays.</p><p><blockquote>目前，Shue减持了消费必需品、公用事业和REITs，这些股票被认为是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a pretty incredible run over the past 12 months, and we have clearly been bouncing off of the bottom,” Shue said.</p><p><blockquote>“过去12个月的表现相当令人难以置信，我们显然已经从谷底反弹，”舒说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/top-strategist-opens-market-playbook-for-second-half-sees-turbulence.html\">CNBC</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/top-strategist-opens-market-playbook-for-second-half-sees-turbulence.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161764161","content_text":"Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thursday.\nHer strategy includes an overexposure to cyclicals, and she favors financials,energy,commodities,materials and industrials.\n\"We see the economic recovery continuing and being a tailwind for stocks,\" the firm's head of investment strategy told CNBC's \"Trading Nation\" on Friday.\nUnless this week sees a dramatic sell-off, the market will start the year's final six months around record highs.\nThe S&P 500 just wrapped up its best week since February,closing at 4,280.70 — an all-time high. The Dow closed up 3.4% for the week, notching its best weekly performance since mid-March.\nThe tech-heavy Nasdaq closed slightly lower on Friday. But it’s up 2.35% for the week.\nShue is optimistic on the broader market, but she also predicts turbulence ahead.\n“We are expecting some perhaps consolidation, maybe a pullback from here,” said Shue, a CNBC contributor.\nShue, who oversees $141.5 billion in assets, is neutral on growth stocks,particularly Big Tech. She views the group as a key part of a diversified portfolio. However, Shue would avoid getting too deep into the group because she expects a rising10-year Treasury note yield to act as a headwind. According to Shue, it should reach at least 2% over the next 12 months.\n‘It’s really important not to forget about technology’\n“Technology is really a long term story. So, it might have some challenges if our interest rate view pans out. But it’s such an integral part of the economy,” she noted. “It’s really important not to forget about technology even if there is perhaps some choppiness over the next few months.”\nShue expects the record rally to moderate over the next six months. She sees low to mid-single percentage gains.\n“Every indication that we have so far in the economic data is that we are probably at or just beyond the peak pace of economic activity perhaps of this cycle,” said Shue. “We are moving into probably a deceleration phase.”\nYet, Shue suggests that shouldn’t spook investors.\n“The deceleration may actually still be above trend growth for the U.S. and the global economy,” she said.\nFor now, Shue is underweightconsumer staples,utilitiesandREITS, which are considered defensive plays.\n“It’s been a pretty incredible run over the past 12 months, and we have clearly been bouncing off of the bottom,” Shue said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120529302,"gmtCreate":1624328414906,"gmtModify":1631888991176,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z77.SI\">$SINGTEL 10(Z77.SI)$</a>Up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z77.SI\">$SINGTEL 10(Z77.SI)$</a>Up","text":"$SINGTEL 10(Z77.SI)$Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120529302","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165574644,"gmtCreate":1624153804388,"gmtModify":1634010239356,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165574644","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173736655,"gmtCreate":1626685616877,"gmtModify":1633924946183,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news???","listText":"Good news???","text":"Good news???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173736655","repostId":"1161502200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173736050,"gmtCreate":1626685580370,"gmtModify":1633924946404,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why????","listText":"Why????","text":"Why????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173736050","repostId":"2152634207","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127130967,"gmtCreate":1624838849359,"gmtModify":1633948246953,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127130967","repostId":"1161764161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161764161","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624836456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161764161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 07:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161764161","media":"CNBC","summary":"Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thu","content":"<p>Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔明顿信托基金(Wilmington Trust)的梅根·舒(Meghan Shue)将于周四开始公布下半年的行动计划。</blockquote></p><p> Her strategy includes an overexposure to cyclicals, and she favors&nbsp;financials,energy,commodities,materials&nbsp;and&nbsp;industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她的策略包括过度投资周期性股票，她青睐金融、能源、大宗商品、材料和工业。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see the economic recovery continuing and being a tailwind for stocks,\" the firm's head of investment strategy told CNBC's \"Trading Nation\" on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>该公司投资策略主管周五对CNBC的“Trading Nation”节目表示：“我们认为经济复苏将持续，并成为股市的顺风车。”</blockquote></p><p> Unless this week sees a dramatic sell-off, the market will start the year's final six months around record highs.</p><p><blockquote>除非本周出现大幅抛售，否则市场将在今年最后六个月的历史高点附近开始。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;just wrapped up&nbsp;its best week since February,closing at 4,280.70 — an all-time high. The&nbsp;Dow&nbsp;closed up 3.4% for the week, notching its best weekly performance since mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数刚刚结束了自2月份以来表现最好的一周，收于4,280.70点，创下历史新高。道指本周收涨3.4%，创3月中旬以来最佳单周表现。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-heavy&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;closed slightly lower on Friday. But it’s up 2.35% for the week.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克周五小幅收低。但本周上涨了2.35%。</blockquote></p><p> Shue is optimistic on the broader market, but she also predicts turbulence ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Shue对大盘持乐观态度，但她也预测未来将出现动荡。</blockquote></p><p> “We are expecting some perhaps consolidation, maybe a pullback from here,” said Shue, a CNBC contributor.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC撰稿人Shue表示：“我们预计可能会出现一些整合，也可能会出现回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue, who oversees $141.5 billion in assets, is neutral on growth stocks,particularly Big Tech. She views the group as a key part of a diversified portfolio. However, Shue would avoid getting too deep into the group because she expects a rising10-year Treasury note yield&nbsp;to act as a headwind. According to Shue, it should reach at least 2% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Shue管理着1,415亿美元的资产，他对成长型股票，尤其是大型科技股持中立态度。她认为该集团是多元化投资组合的关键部分。然而，Shue会避免深入该集团，因为她预计10年期国债收益率上升将成为阻力。Shue表示，未来12个月内至少应达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> ‘It’s really important not to forget about technology’</p><p><blockquote>“不要忘记技术非常重要”</blockquote></p><p> “Technology is really a long term story. So, it might have some challenges if our interest rate view pans out. But it’s such an integral part of the economy,” she noted. “It’s really important not to forget about technology even if there is perhaps some choppiness over the next few months.”</p><p><blockquote>“技术确实是一个长期的故事。因此，如果我们的利率观点成功，它可能会面临一些挑战。但它是经济不可或缺的一部分，”她指出。“即使未来几个月可能会出现一些波动，也不要忘记技术，这一点非常重要。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue expects the record rally to moderate over the next six months. She sees low to mid-single percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>Shue预计创纪录的涨势将在未来六个月内放缓。她认为单一百分比涨幅为中低。</blockquote></p><p> “Every indication that we have so far in the economic data is that we are probably at or just beyond the peak pace of economic activity perhaps of this cycle,” said Shue. “We are moving into probably a deceleration phase.”</p><p><blockquote>舒表示：“迄今为止，经济数据中的所有迹象都表明，我们可能正处于或刚刚超过本周期经济活动的峰值速度。”“我们可能正在进入减速阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet, Shue suggests that shouldn’t spook investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，舒表示，这不应该吓到投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “The deceleration may actually still be above trend growth for the U.S. and the global economy,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示：“美国和全球经济的减速实际上可能仍高于趋势增长。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, Shue is underweightconsumer staples,utilitiesandREITS, which are considered defensive plays.</p><p><blockquote>目前，Shue减持了消费必需品、公用事业和REITs，这些股票被认为是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a pretty incredible run over the past 12 months, and we have clearly been bouncing off of the bottom,” Shue said.</p><p><blockquote>“过去12个月的表现相当令人难以置信，我们显然已经从谷底反弹，”舒说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1609915699154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop strategist opens her playbook for the year’s second half, sees market turbulence ahead<blockquote>顶级策略师开启下半年策略，预计未来市场将出现动荡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNBC</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 07:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔明顿信托基金(Wilmington Trust)的梅根·舒(Meghan Shue)将于周四开始公布下半年的行动计划。</blockquote></p><p> Her strategy includes an overexposure to cyclicals, and she favors&nbsp;financials,energy,commodities,materials&nbsp;and&nbsp;industrials.</p><p><blockquote>她的策略包括过度投资周期性股票，她青睐金融、能源、大宗商品、材料和工业。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see the economic recovery continuing and being a tailwind for stocks,\" the firm's head of investment strategy told CNBC's \"Trading Nation\" on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>该公司投资策略主管周五对CNBC的“Trading Nation”节目表示：“我们认为经济复苏将持续，并成为股市的顺风车。”</blockquote></p><p> Unless this week sees a dramatic sell-off, the market will start the year's final six months around record highs.</p><p><blockquote>除非本周出现大幅抛售，否则市场将在今年最后六个月的历史高点附近开始。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;just wrapped up&nbsp;its best week since February,closing at 4,280.70 — an all-time high. The&nbsp;Dow&nbsp;closed up 3.4% for the week, notching its best weekly performance since mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数刚刚结束了自2月份以来表现最好的一周，收于4,280.70点，创下历史新高。道指本周收涨3.4%，创3月中旬以来最佳单周表现。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-heavy&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;closed slightly lower on Friday. But it’s up 2.35% for the week.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克周五小幅收低。但本周上涨了2.35%。</blockquote></p><p> Shue is optimistic on the broader market, but she also predicts turbulence ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Shue对大盘持乐观态度，但她也预测未来将出现动荡。</blockquote></p><p> “We are expecting some perhaps consolidation, maybe a pullback from here,” said Shue, a CNBC contributor.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC撰稿人Shue表示：“我们预计可能会出现一些整合，也可能会出现回调。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue, who oversees $141.5 billion in assets, is neutral on growth stocks,particularly Big Tech. She views the group as a key part of a diversified portfolio. However, Shue would avoid getting too deep into the group because she expects a rising10-year Treasury note yield&nbsp;to act as a headwind. According to Shue, it should reach at least 2% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Shue管理着1,415亿美元的资产，他对成长型股票，尤其是大型科技股持中立态度。她认为该集团是多元化投资组合的关键部分。然而，Shue会避免深入该集团，因为她预计10年期国债收益率上升将成为阻力。Shue表示，未来12个月内至少应达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> ‘It’s really important not to forget about technology’</p><p><blockquote>“不要忘记技术非常重要”</blockquote></p><p> “Technology is really a long term story. So, it might have some challenges if our interest rate view pans out. But it’s such an integral part of the economy,” she noted. “It’s really important not to forget about technology even if there is perhaps some choppiness over the next few months.”</p><p><blockquote>“技术确实是一个长期的故事。因此，如果我们的利率观点成功，它可能会面临一些挑战。但它是经济不可或缺的一部分，”她指出。“即使未来几个月可能会出现一些波动，也不要忘记技术，这一点非常重要。”</blockquote></p><p> Shue expects the record rally to moderate over the next six months. She sees low to mid-single percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>Shue预计创纪录的涨势将在未来六个月内放缓。她认为单一百分比涨幅为中低。</blockquote></p><p> “Every indication that we have so far in the economic data is that we are probably at or just beyond the peak pace of economic activity perhaps of this cycle,” said Shue. “We are moving into probably a deceleration phase.”</p><p><blockquote>舒表示：“迄今为止，经济数据中的所有迹象都表明，我们可能正处于或刚刚超过本周期经济活动的峰值速度。”“我们可能正在进入减速阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet, Shue suggests that shouldn’t spook investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，舒表示，这不应该吓到投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “The deceleration may actually still be above trend growth for the U.S. and the global economy,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示：“美国和全球经济的减速实际上可能仍高于趋势增长。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, Shue is underweightconsumer staples,utilitiesandREITS, which are considered defensive plays.</p><p><blockquote>目前，Shue减持了消费必需品、公用事业和REITs，这些股票被认为是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a pretty incredible run over the past 12 months, and we have clearly been bouncing off of the bottom,” Shue said.</p><p><blockquote>“过去12个月的表现相当令人难以置信，我们显然已经从谷底反弹，”舒说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/top-strategist-opens-market-playbook-for-second-half-sees-turbulence.html\">CNBC</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/top-strategist-opens-market-playbook-for-second-half-sees-turbulence.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161764161","content_text":"Wilmington Trust’s Meghan Shue is opening her playbook for the year’s second half — which starts Thursday.\nHer strategy includes an overexposure to cyclicals, and she favors financials,energy,commodities,materials and industrials.\n\"We see the economic recovery continuing and being a tailwind for stocks,\" the firm's head of investment strategy told CNBC's \"Trading Nation\" on Friday.\nUnless this week sees a dramatic sell-off, the market will start the year's final six months around record highs.\nThe S&P 500 just wrapped up its best week since February,closing at 4,280.70 — an all-time high. The Dow closed up 3.4% for the week, notching its best weekly performance since mid-March.\nThe tech-heavy Nasdaq closed slightly lower on Friday. But it’s up 2.35% for the week.\nShue is optimistic on the broader market, but she also predicts turbulence ahead.\n“We are expecting some perhaps consolidation, maybe a pullback from here,” said Shue, a CNBC contributor.\nShue, who oversees $141.5 billion in assets, is neutral on growth stocks,particularly Big Tech. She views the group as a key part of a diversified portfolio. However, Shue would avoid getting too deep into the group because she expects a rising10-year Treasury note yield to act as a headwind. According to Shue, it should reach at least 2% over the next 12 months.\n‘It’s really important not to forget about technology’\n“Technology is really a long term story. So, it might have some challenges if our interest rate view pans out. But it’s such an integral part of the economy,” she noted. “It’s really important not to forget about technology even if there is perhaps some choppiness over the next few months.”\nShue expects the record rally to moderate over the next six months. She sees low to mid-single percentage gains.\n“Every indication that we have so far in the economic data is that we are probably at or just beyond the peak pace of economic activity perhaps of this cycle,” said Shue. “We are moving into probably a deceleration phase.”\nYet, Shue suggests that shouldn’t spook investors.\n“The deceleration may actually still be above trend growth for the U.S. and the global economy,” she said.\nFor now, Shue is underweightconsumer staples,utilitiesandREITS, which are considered defensive plays.\n“It’s been a pretty incredible run over the past 12 months, and we have clearly been bouncing off of the bottom,” Shue said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801492137,"gmtCreate":1627526468629,"gmtModify":1633764103420,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow nice","listText":"Wow nice","text":"Wow nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801492137","repostId":"1142598506","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142598506","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627525801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142598506?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rio Tinto Pays $9.1 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record<blockquote>利润创历史新高，力拓支付91亿美元股息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142598506","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, reported its highest-ever interi","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, reported its highest-ever interim profit and will pay $9.1 billion in dividends as the company and its global rivals cash in on this year’s commodities rally.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——全球最大的铁矿石开采商力拓集团公布了有史以来最高的中期利润，并将支付91亿美元的股息，因为该公司及其全球竞争对手从今年的大宗商品上涨中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Rio is the first of the majors to post earnings, kicking off a reporting season that’s expected to see record results across the board. The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the world’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic. The trillions of dollars poured into recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like iron ore and copper, driving prices sharply higher and sending inflation pressures rippling through the global economy.</p><p><blockquote>力拓是第一家公布财报的大型企业，拉开了财报季的序幕，预计业绩将全面创历史新高。该行业一直是世界摆脱疫情努力的最大受益者之一。注入复苏计划的数万亿美元点燃了对铁矿石和铜等大宗商品的需求，推动价格大幅上涨，并给全球经济带来通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s results are also the first period under the leadership of new Chief Executive Officer Jakob Stausholm, who was appointed after Jean-Sebastien Jacques left the company because of a backlash over Rio’s destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site last year. The surge in commodity prices means the new boss comes in on a high note for Rio, even as the company grapples with a slew of production setbacks that have dogged its operations in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>周三的业绩也是新任首席执行官雅各布·施陶霍姆(Jakob Stausholm)领导下的第一个时期，他是在让-塞巴斯蒂安·雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)因去年力拓破坏古代原住民遗址遭到强烈反对而离开公司后任命的。大宗商品价格飙升意味着新老板对力拓来说意义重大，尽管该公司正在努力应对近年来困扰其运营的一系列生产挫折。</blockquote></p><p> Disruptions caused by Covid, and especially the company’s ability to move workers to its sites, added to existing problems in the first half, especially around the development of a copper project in Mongolia and at its key profit-driving iron ore mines in Western Australia. Rio’s copper business has also seen production fall as Covid takes its toll.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情造成的干扰，尤其是该公司将工人转移到其工厂的能力，加剧了上半年现有的问题，特别是围绕蒙古铜项目的开发以及西澳大利亚主要的利润驱动铁矿。由于新冠疫情造成损失，力拓的铜业务产量也出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> “In the first half we experienced too much operation instability. We have to sharpen the consistency of our performance,” the CEO said on a media call. “While today’s results clearly demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base, our operational performance clearly is not where it has been in the past or where we want it to be.”</p><p><blockquote>“上半年我们经历了太多的运营不稳定。我们必须提高业绩的一致性，”首席执行官在媒体看涨期权上表示。“虽然今天的业绩清楚地表明了我们资产基础的基本质量，但我们的运营业绩显然没有达到过去的水平，也没有达到我们希望的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Stausholm also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for commodities demand in top consumer China.</p><p><blockquote>施陶霍姆还对最大消费国中国的大宗商品需求前景表示谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “The long-term potential for China is still intact but we probably have seen a non-sustainable high level of industrial development in some of the months in the first half of this year,” he said on a call with reporters.</p><p><blockquote>他在与记者举行的看涨期权上表示：“中国的长期潜力仍然完好无损，但我们可能在今年上半年的某些月份看到了不可持续的高水平工业发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Rio’s shares slipped 0.6% in London, in line with a wider decline among most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>力拓股价在伦敦下跌0.6%，与大多数同行的跌幅一致。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $12.2 billion from the same period last year as prices for iron ore and copper surged. The half-year payout -- which includes a special dividend of $3 billion -- is more than the mining giant returned to shareholders for the whole of 2020 and higher than analysts forecast.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，由于铁矿石和铜价格飙升，上半年基本收益较去年同期增长了一倍多，达到122亿美元。半年派息（其中包括30亿美元的特别股息）超过了这家矿业巨头2020年全年向股东返还的金额，也高于分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> While Rio’s paying out record amounts to shareholders, the company signaled this week it’s also keen to invest in growing production in key commodities -- particularly those that will benefit from the world’s shift toward green energy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管力拓向股东支付了创纪录的金额，但该公司本周表示，它也热衷于投资增加关键大宗商品的产量，特别是那些将受益于世界向绿色能源转变的大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> The company announced Tuesday it plans to spend $2.4 billion building a lithium mine in Serbia. While it’s the first big move by a mining major into lithium, used in rechargeable batteries, the investment reflects an ongoing push by the world’s biggest mining companies into “future facing” commodities like battery metals or fertilizer, at the same time that the industry is moving to get out of fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周二宣布，计划斥资24亿美元在塞尔维亚建设一座锂矿。虽然这是矿业巨头首次进军用于充电电池的锂领域，但这项投资反映出全球最大的矿业公司正在持续推动电池金属或化肥等“面向未来”的大宗商品，同时该行业正在摆脱化石燃料。</blockquote></p><p> “Rio appears to be shifting from austerity and capital returns to more of a focus on growth,” Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note. “While Rio had some operational issues in the period, the big picture here is that these are stellar financial results.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师克里斯托弗·拉费米纳(Christopher LaFemina)在一份报告中写道：“力拓似乎正在从紧缩和资本回报转向更加关注增长。”“虽然力拓在此期间遇到了一些运营问题，但总体而言，这些财务业绩非常出色。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rio Tinto Pays $9.1 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record<blockquote>利润创历史新高，力拓支付91亿美元股息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRio Tinto Pays $9.1 Billion Dividend as Profit Hits Record<blockquote>利润创历史新高，力拓支付91亿美元股息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 10:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, reported its highest-ever interim profit and will pay $9.1 billion in dividends as the company and its global rivals cash in on this year’s commodities rally.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——全球最大的铁矿石开采商力拓集团公布了有史以来最高的中期利润，并将支付91亿美元的股息，因为该公司及其全球竞争对手从今年的大宗商品上涨中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Rio is the first of the majors to post earnings, kicking off a reporting season that’s expected to see record results across the board. The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the world’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic. The trillions of dollars poured into recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like iron ore and copper, driving prices sharply higher and sending inflation pressures rippling through the global economy.</p><p><blockquote>力拓是第一家公布财报的大型企业，拉开了财报季的序幕，预计业绩将全面创历史新高。该行业一直是世界摆脱疫情努力的最大受益者之一。注入复苏计划的数万亿美元点燃了对铁矿石和铜等大宗商品的需求，推动价格大幅上涨，并给全球经济带来通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s results are also the first period under the leadership of new Chief Executive Officer Jakob Stausholm, who was appointed after Jean-Sebastien Jacques left the company because of a backlash over Rio’s destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site last year. The surge in commodity prices means the new boss comes in on a high note for Rio, even as the company grapples with a slew of production setbacks that have dogged its operations in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>周三的业绩也是新任首席执行官雅各布·施陶霍姆(Jakob Stausholm)领导下的第一个时期，他是在让-塞巴斯蒂安·雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)因去年力拓破坏古代原住民遗址遭到强烈反对而离开公司后任命的。大宗商品价格飙升意味着新老板对力拓来说意义重大，尽管该公司正在努力应对近年来困扰其运营的一系列生产挫折。</blockquote></p><p> Disruptions caused by Covid, and especially the company’s ability to move workers to its sites, added to existing problems in the first half, especially around the development of a copper project in Mongolia and at its key profit-driving iron ore mines in Western Australia. Rio’s copper business has also seen production fall as Covid takes its toll.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情造成的干扰，尤其是该公司将工人转移到其工厂的能力，加剧了上半年现有的问题，特别是围绕蒙古铜项目的开发以及西澳大利亚主要的利润驱动铁矿。由于新冠疫情造成损失，力拓的铜业务产量也出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> “In the first half we experienced too much operation instability. We have to sharpen the consistency of our performance,” the CEO said on a media call. “While today’s results clearly demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base, our operational performance clearly is not where it has been in the past or where we want it to be.”</p><p><blockquote>“上半年我们经历了太多的运营不稳定。我们必须提高业绩的一致性，”首席执行官在媒体看涨期权上表示。“虽然今天的业绩清楚地表明了我们资产基础的基本质量，但我们的运营业绩显然没有达到过去的水平，也没有达到我们希望的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Stausholm also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for commodities demand in top consumer China.</p><p><blockquote>施陶霍姆还对最大消费国中国的大宗商品需求前景表示谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “The long-term potential for China is still intact but we probably have seen a non-sustainable high level of industrial development in some of the months in the first half of this year,” he said on a call with reporters.</p><p><blockquote>他在与记者举行的看涨期权上表示：“中国的长期潜力仍然完好无损，但我们可能在今年上半年的某些月份看到了不可持续的高水平工业发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Rio’s shares slipped 0.6% in London, in line with a wider decline among most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>力拓股价在伦敦下跌0.6%，与大多数同行的跌幅一致。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $12.2 billion from the same period last year as prices for iron ore and copper surged. The half-year payout -- which includes a special dividend of $3 billion -- is more than the mining giant returned to shareholders for the whole of 2020 and higher than analysts forecast.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，由于铁矿石和铜价格飙升，上半年基本收益较去年同期增长了一倍多，达到122亿美元。半年派息（其中包括30亿美元的特别股息）超过了这家矿业巨头2020年全年向股东返还的金额，也高于分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> While Rio’s paying out record amounts to shareholders, the company signaled this week it’s also keen to invest in growing production in key commodities -- particularly those that will benefit from the world’s shift toward green energy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管力拓向股东支付了创纪录的金额，但该公司本周表示，它也热衷于投资增加关键大宗商品的产量，特别是那些将受益于世界向绿色能源转变的大宗商品。</blockquote></p><p> The company announced Tuesday it plans to spend $2.4 billion building a lithium mine in Serbia. While it’s the first big move by a mining major into lithium, used in rechargeable batteries, the investment reflects an ongoing push by the world’s biggest mining companies into “future facing” commodities like battery metals or fertilizer, at the same time that the industry is moving to get out of fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周二宣布，计划斥资24亿美元在塞尔维亚建设一座锂矿。虽然这是矿业巨头首次进军用于充电电池的锂领域，但这项投资反映出全球最大的矿业公司正在持续推动电池金属或化肥等“面向未来”的大宗商品，同时该行业正在摆脱化石燃料。</blockquote></p><p> “Rio appears to be shifting from austerity and capital returns to more of a focus on growth,” Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note. “While Rio had some operational issues in the period, the big picture here is that these are stellar financial results.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师克里斯托弗·拉费米纳(Christopher LaFemina)在一份报告中写道：“力拓似乎正在从紧缩和资本回报转向更加关注增长。”“虽然力拓在此期间遇到了一些运营问题，但总体而言，这些财务业绩非常出色。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-pays-9-1-063339102.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIO":"力拓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-pays-9-1-063339102.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142598506","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, reported its highest-ever interim profit and will pay $9.1 billion in dividends as the company and its global rivals cash in on this year’s commodities rally.\nRio is the first of the majors to post earnings, kicking off a reporting season that’s expected to see record results across the board. The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the world’s efforts to emerge from the pandemic. The trillions of dollars poured into recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like iron ore and copper, driving prices sharply higher and sending inflation pressures rippling through the global economy.\nWednesday’s results are also the first period under the leadership of new Chief Executive Officer Jakob Stausholm, who was appointed after Jean-Sebastien Jacques left the company because of a backlash over Rio’s destruction of an ancient Aboriginal site last year. The surge in commodity prices means the new boss comes in on a high note for Rio, even as the company grapples with a slew of production setbacks that have dogged its operations in recent years.\nDisruptions caused by Covid, and especially the company’s ability to move workers to its sites, added to existing problems in the first half, especially around the development of a copper project in Mongolia and at its key profit-driving iron ore mines in Western Australia. Rio’s copper business has also seen production fall as Covid takes its toll.\n“In the first half we experienced too much operation instability. We have to sharpen the consistency of our performance,” the CEO said on a media call. “While today’s results clearly demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base, our operational performance clearly is not where it has been in the past or where we want it to be.”\nStausholm also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for commodities demand in top consumer China.\n“The long-term potential for China is still intact but we probably have seen a non-sustainable high level of industrial development in some of the months in the first half of this year,” he said on a call with reporters.\nRio’s shares slipped 0.6% in London, in line with a wider decline among most of its peers.\nThe company reported first-half underlying earnings more than doubled to $12.2 billion from the same period last year as prices for iron ore and copper surged. The half-year payout -- which includes a special dividend of $3 billion -- is more than the mining giant returned to shareholders for the whole of 2020 and higher than analysts forecast.\nWhile Rio’s paying out record amounts to shareholders, the company signaled this week it’s also keen to invest in growing production in key commodities -- particularly those that will benefit from the world’s shift toward green energy.\nThe company announced Tuesday it plans to spend $2.4 billion building a lithium mine in Serbia. While it’s the first big move by a mining major into lithium, used in rechargeable batteries, the investment reflects an ongoing push by the world’s biggest mining companies into “future facing” commodities like battery metals or fertilizer, at the same time that the industry is moving to get out of fossil fuels.\n“Rio appears to be shifting from austerity and capital returns to more of a focus on growth,” Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina wrote in a note. “While Rio had some operational issues in the period, the big picture here is that these are stellar financial results.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803817141,"gmtCreate":1627431768083,"gmtModify":1633765102773,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803817141","repostId":"2154948228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176700112,"gmtCreate":1626914312936,"gmtModify":1633769834834,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176700112","repostId":"2153640590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173732090,"gmtCreate":1626685665110,"gmtModify":1633924945960,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok sure","listText":"Ok sure","text":"Ok sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173732090","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175951914,"gmtCreate":1627003704138,"gmtModify":1633768883129,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175951914","repostId":"2153673675","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171466778,"gmtCreate":1626757157194,"gmtModify":1633771300243,"author":{"id":"3582411767688365","authorId":"3582411767688365","name":"5ca20d0a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582411767688365","idStr":"3582411767688365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello…","listText":"Hello…","text":"Hello…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171466778","repostId":"1129846769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129846769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626751789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129846769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Worried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129846769","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the ","content":"<p>In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the news. If there is a storm visible anywhere, he explains, you write “Storm threatens the town,” even if the storm is nowhere near and is unlikely to hit. If—as expected—the storm never hits, you just write the follow up: “Town spared by storm.”</p><p><blockquote>在20世纪90年代的电影《航运新闻》中，一位老记者向凯文·史派西解释如何报道新闻。他解释说，如果任何地方都有可见的风暴，你就会写“风暴威胁着城镇”，即使风暴不在附近，也不太可能来袭。如果——正如预期的那样——风暴从未袭击，你只需写下后续内容：“城镇幸免于风暴。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers may be excused for thinking something similar about the latest stories about looming, threatening, surging, terrifying inflation. Yes, the inflation forecasts were surging months ago, and hit 8-year highs. Had they continued there would be grounds to worry. But they haven’t continued. On the contrary, they’ve been falling for two months. The bond market’s 5-year inflation forecast is now lower than it was in mid-March. The market sees five-year inflation running at around 2.6%. That’s higher than we’ve been used to for a decade, but it’s nothing to cause any significant alarm.</p><p><blockquote>读者可能会对最近关于迫在眉睫、威胁、飙升、可怕的通货膨胀的故事有类似的想法。是的，几个月前通胀预测飙升，并创下8年来的新高。如果他们继续下去，就有理由担心。但他们没有继续。相反，他们已经下跌了两个月。债券市场的5年通胀预期现在低于3月中旬。市场预计五年通胀率约为2.6%。这比我们十年来所习惯的要高，但这并没有引起任何重大恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> That can change, of course. Maybe it will. We’ll see.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种情况可能会改变。也许会。我们走着瞧。</blockquote></p><p> But with all this talk I got to thinking about the obvious question. If serious inflation really does hit, what can we do about it? How can we protect our investments?</p><p><blockquote>但是通过这些谈话，我开始思考一个显而易见的问题。如果严重的通货膨胀真的来袭，我们能做些什么呢？我们如何保护我们的投资？</blockquote></p><p> That’s an especially key question for today’s retirees and those expecting to retire soon. When we’re older we’re generally advised to keep most of our money in more “conservative” investments, meaning things like bonds, that involve less risk. Someone in their 20s or 30s may not worry unduly if their retirement savings plunge 30% in a market rout or an inflationary spiral. For someone in their 60s, let alone older, that can become a major financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>对于今天的退休人员和那些预计很快退休的人来说，这是一个特别关键的问题。当我们长大后，通常建议我们将大部分资金投资于更“保守”的投资，即债券等风险较小的投资。如果20多岁或30多岁的人的退休储蓄在市场暴跌或通胀螺旋中暴跌30%，他们可能不会过度担心。对于60多岁的人来说，更不用说老年人了，这可能会成为一场重大的财务危机。</blockquote></p><p> So I went back and dug up the information from the last, infamous inflationary spiral in the 1970s, when consumer price inflation often topped 10% a year. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus pointed out that no one ever walks through the same stream twice, because the second time it’s not the same stream, and we’re not the same person. Everything changes. There is no guarantee the next inflationary boom, even if it happens, will look anything like the last one — any more than we should assume that it will be accompanied by outbreaks of disco music and flared jeans.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我回去挖掘了20世纪70年代上一次臭名昭著的通胀螺旋的信息，当时消费者价格通胀经常超过每年10%。希腊哲学家赫拉克利特指出，没有人会两次走过同一条小溪，因为第二次就不是同一条小溪了，我们也不是同一个人了。一切都变了。不能保证下一次通胀繁荣，即使发生了，看起来也会像上一次一样——就像我们不应该假设它会伴随着迪斯科音乐和喇叭牛仔裤的爆发一样。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless the chart above shows the total returns, after adjusting for inflation, of various asset classes from December 1971 to December 1981. (I used those dates because the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or NAREIT, starts their data series then.) The data on energy stocks came from data compiled by professor Ken French at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上图显示了1971年12月至1981年12月各种资产类别经通胀调整后的总回报。（我使用这些日期是因为全国房地产投资信托协会（NAREIT）在那时开始他们的数据系列。）能源股的数据来自达特茅斯学院塔克商学院肯·弗伦奇教授汇编的数据。</blockquote></p><p> This is what happened to your purchasing power if you invested in these assets and hung on for 10 years. (I’ve excluded gold, which is a different story.)</p><p><blockquote>如果你投资这些资产并坚持10年，你的购买力就会发生这种情况。（我已经排除了黄金，这是一个不同的故事。）</blockquote></p><p> The key standout is that you really didn’t want to own Treasury bonds. The near 40% loss of purchasing power over 10 years is somewhat notional—it is derived from the compound annual returns on 10 Year Treasurys compiled by New York University’s Stern School of Business, divided by the consumer-price index—but tells a story nonetheless. (In Great Britain, where inflation was even worse, government bonds during the 1970s became known as “certificates of confiscation.” Ouch.)</p><p><blockquote>关键的突出之处在于，你真的不想拥有国债。10年内购买力损失近40%在某种程度上是名义上的——它来自纽约大学斯特恩商学院编制的10年期美国国债的复合年回报率除以消费者价格指数——但仍然讲述了一个故事。（在通货膨胀更严重的英国，20世纪70年代的政府债券被称为“没收证书”。哎哟。）</blockquote></p><p> Holding them cost you money. Lots of it.</p><p><blockquote>拿着它们要花钱。很多。</blockquote></p><p> You could argue that the danger today is even greater, simply because the yields on long-term Treasury bonds are so low. Federal Reserve quantitative easing, bond buying, and zero interest-rate policies have left Treasury yields at their lowest on record—which means the turns would be a disaster if inflation reared its head.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会说，今天的危险甚至更大，仅仅是因为长期国债的收益率如此之低。美联储的量化宽松、债券购买和零利率政策使美国国债收益率处于有记录以来的最低水平——这意味着如果通胀抬头，这将是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate bonds and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;were also terrible investments. It’s worth remembering that these are real term losses over a decade, which means investors didn’t just lose a lot of money—they also lost a lot of time.</p><p><blockquote>公司债券和标普500也是糟糕的投资。值得记住的是，这些是十年来的实际定期损失，这意味着投资者不仅损失了很多钱，还损失了很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Utility stocks weren’t great, but they held up better. And Treasury bills—short-term paper—did better still. But once again you were going backward when you needed to be going forwards.</p><p><blockquote>公用事业股表现不佳，但表现较好。短期票据——国库券——表现更好。但是当你需要前进的时候，你又一次倒退了。</blockquote></p><p> No one who remembers the 1970s will be surprised that energy companies boomed. Less well-remembered, maybe, is that REITs also did pretty well. These numbers, incidentally, represented property-owning REITs and excluded mortgage REITs, which own loans.</p><p><blockquote>任何记得20世纪70年代的人都不会对能源公司的蓬勃发展感到惊讶。也许不太为人所知的是，房地产投资信托基金的表现也相当不错。顺便说一句，这些数字代表拥有财产的房地产投资信托基金，不包括拥有贷款的抵押房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> But there are two caveats to this. The first is that of course energy stocks did well, because a key driver of inflation in the 1970s was the rise of OPEC and two oil embargoes it imposed on the West for political reasons. Cue Heraclitus. There is no particular reason to assume that the next inflationary surge will be the same.</p><p><blockquote>但对此有两个警告。首先，能源股当然表现良好，因为20世纪70年代通胀的一个关键驱动因素是欧佩克的崛起及其出于政治原因对西方实施的两次石油禁运。提示赫拉克利特。没有特别的理由假设下一次通胀飙升会是一样的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The second caveat is that although REITs ended up doing well, they were volatile along the way. In particular, REIT prices collapsed in the OPEC-driven recession of 1972-4. And according to FactSet, U.S. REITs today already look pretty expensive on some measures. For instance it reckons that the forecast dividend yield on the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (a reasonable benchmark for the industry) is just 2.9% — by far the lowest since it was launched in 2004. Looking through NAREIT data, I can’t find a moment since 1971 when the overall yield on REITs was this low. During the real estate bubble in 2007, incidentally, the yield bottomed out no lower than 3.6%</p><p><blockquote>第二个警告是，尽管房地产投资信托基金最终表现良好，但一路上波动较大。特别是，房地产投资信托基金价格在1972-1974年欧佩克引发的经济衰退中暴跌。根据FactSet的数据，从某些指标来看，如今的美国房地产投资信托基金看起来已经相当昂贵。例如，它估计Vanguard Real Estate ETF（该行业的合理基准）的预测股息收益率仅为2.9%，是自2004年推出以来的最低水平。翻阅NAREIT数据，自1971年以来，我找不到REITs整体收益率如此之低的时刻。2007年房地产泡沫期间，顺带一提，收益率见底不低于3.6%</blockquote></p><p> So it may be that REITs offer less inflation protection today than we would hope.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今房地产投资信托基金提供的通胀保护可能比我们希望的要少。</blockquote></p><p> One key difference in the 1970s is that there were no “inflation-protected” Treasury bonds to keep investors protected. So-called TIPS are in theory almost the perfect investment for retirees. They are issued by the U.S. government and their coupons are safe against default. Meanwhile their coupons effectively adjust to reflect changes in consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代的一个关键区别是，没有“通胀保值”国债来保护投资者。理论上，所谓的小费几乎是退休人员的完美投资。它们由美国政府发行，其优惠券不会违约。与此同时，他们的优惠券有效地调整以反映消费价格的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The problem today is that TIPS—like almost everything else in the bond market—look incredibly expensive. Most TIPS already lock in an actual loss of purchasing power if you buy them today. For example if you buy 5 year TIPS bonds and hold them for 5 years you’ll end up losing 9% of your purchasing power. And 30-year TIPS bonds offer the same 9% loss, though stretched out over 30 years.</p><p><blockquote>今天的问题是，TIPS——就像债券市场上的几乎所有东西一样——看起来非常昂贵。如果你今天购买，大多数建议已经锁定了购买力的实际损失。例如，如果你购买5年期TIPS债券并持有5年，你最终会损失9%的购买力。30年期TIPS债券的损失同样为9%，尽管期限延长了30年。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not very compelling. And it shows the risks that the government’s policy responses have created for those in retirement and near it.</p><p><blockquote>这不是很引人注目。它还显示了政府的政策应对给退休和接近退休年龄的人带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Worried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWorried about inflation? Here’s how investments did in the 1970s<blockquote>担心通货膨胀？以下是20世纪70年代的投资表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the news. If there is a storm visible anywhere, he explains, you write “Storm threatens the town,” even if the storm is nowhere near and is unlikely to hit. If—as expected—the storm never hits, you just write the follow up: “Town spared by storm.”</p><p><blockquote>在20世纪90年代的电影《航运新闻》中，一位老记者向凯文·史派西解释如何报道新闻。他解释说，如果任何地方都有可见的风暴，你就会写“风暴威胁着城镇”，即使风暴不在附近，也不太可能来袭。如果——正如预期的那样——风暴从未袭击，你只需写下后续内容：“城镇幸免于风暴。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers may be excused for thinking something similar about the latest stories about looming, threatening, surging, terrifying inflation. Yes, the inflation forecasts were surging months ago, and hit 8-year highs. Had they continued there would be grounds to worry. But they haven’t continued. On the contrary, they’ve been falling for two months. The bond market’s 5-year inflation forecast is now lower than it was in mid-March. The market sees five-year inflation running at around 2.6%. That’s higher than we’ve been used to for a decade, but it’s nothing to cause any significant alarm.</p><p><blockquote>读者可能会对最近关于迫在眉睫、威胁、飙升、可怕的通货膨胀的故事有类似的想法。是的，几个月前通胀预测飙升，并创下8年来的新高。如果他们继续下去，就有理由担心。但他们没有继续。相反，他们已经下跌了两个月。债券市场的5年通胀预期现在低于3月中旬。市场预计五年通胀率约为2.6%。这比我们十年来所习惯的要高，但这并没有引起任何重大恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> That can change, of course. Maybe it will. We’ll see.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种情况可能会改变。也许会。我们走着瞧。</blockquote></p><p> But with all this talk I got to thinking about the obvious question. If serious inflation really does hit, what can we do about it? How can we protect our investments?</p><p><blockquote>但是通过这些谈话，我开始思考一个显而易见的问题。如果严重的通货膨胀真的来袭，我们能做些什么呢？我们如何保护我们的投资？</blockquote></p><p> That’s an especially key question for today’s retirees and those expecting to retire soon. When we’re older we’re generally advised to keep most of our money in more “conservative” investments, meaning things like bonds, that involve less risk. Someone in their 20s or 30s may not worry unduly if their retirement savings plunge 30% in a market rout or an inflationary spiral. For someone in their 60s, let alone older, that can become a major financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>对于今天的退休人员和那些预计很快退休的人来说，这是一个特别关键的问题。当我们长大后，通常建议我们将大部分资金投资于更“保守”的投资，即债券等风险较小的投资。如果20多岁或30多岁的人的退休储蓄在市场暴跌或通胀螺旋中暴跌30%，他们可能不会过度担心。对于60多岁的人来说，更不用说老年人了，这可能会成为一场重大的财务危机。</blockquote></p><p> So I went back and dug up the information from the last, infamous inflationary spiral in the 1970s, when consumer price inflation often topped 10% a year. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus pointed out that no one ever walks through the same stream twice, because the second time it’s not the same stream, and we’re not the same person. Everything changes. There is no guarantee the next inflationary boom, even if it happens, will look anything like the last one — any more than we should assume that it will be accompanied by outbreaks of disco music and flared jeans.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我回去挖掘了20世纪70年代上一次臭名昭著的通胀螺旋的信息，当时消费者价格通胀经常超过每年10%。希腊哲学家赫拉克利特指出，没有人会两次走过同一条小溪，因为第二次就不是同一条小溪了，我们也不是同一个人了。一切都变了。不能保证下一次通胀繁荣，即使发生了，看起来也会像上一次一样——就像我们不应该假设它会伴随着迪斯科音乐和喇叭牛仔裤的爆发一样。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless the chart above shows the total returns, after adjusting for inflation, of various asset classes from December 1971 to December 1981. (I used those dates because the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or NAREIT, starts their data series then.) The data on energy stocks came from data compiled by professor Ken French at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，上图显示了1971年12月至1981年12月各种资产类别经通胀调整后的总回报。（我使用这些日期是因为全国房地产投资信托协会（NAREIT）在那时开始他们的数据系列。）能源股的数据来自达特茅斯学院塔克商学院肯·弗伦奇教授汇编的数据。</blockquote></p><p> This is what happened to your purchasing power if you invested in these assets and hung on for 10 years. (I’ve excluded gold, which is a different story.)</p><p><blockquote>如果你投资这些资产并坚持10年，你的购买力就会发生这种情况。（我已经排除了黄金，这是一个不同的故事。）</blockquote></p><p> The key standout is that you really didn’t want to own Treasury bonds. The near 40% loss of purchasing power over 10 years is somewhat notional—it is derived from the compound annual returns on 10 Year Treasurys compiled by New York University’s Stern School of Business, divided by the consumer-price index—but tells a story nonetheless. (In Great Britain, where inflation was even worse, government bonds during the 1970s became known as “certificates of confiscation.” Ouch.)</p><p><blockquote>关键的突出之处在于，你真的不想拥有国债。10年内购买力损失近40%在某种程度上是名义上的——它来自纽约大学斯特恩商学院编制的10年期美国国债的复合年回报率除以消费者价格指数——但仍然讲述了一个故事。（在通货膨胀更严重的英国，20世纪70年代的政府债券被称为“没收证书”。哎哟。）</blockquote></p><p> Holding them cost you money. Lots of it.</p><p><blockquote>拿着它们要花钱。很多。</blockquote></p><p> You could argue that the danger today is even greater, simply because the yields on long-term Treasury bonds are so low. Federal Reserve quantitative easing, bond buying, and zero interest-rate policies have left Treasury yields at their lowest on record—which means the turns would be a disaster if inflation reared its head.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会说，今天的危险甚至更大，仅仅是因为长期国债的收益率如此之低。美联储的量化宽松、债券购买和零利率政策使美国国债收益率处于有记录以来的最低水平——这意味着如果通胀抬头，这将是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate bonds and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;were also terrible investments. It’s worth remembering that these are real term losses over a decade, which means investors didn’t just lose a lot of money—they also lost a lot of time.</p><p><blockquote>公司债券和标普500也是糟糕的投资。值得记住的是，这些是十年来的实际定期损失，这意味着投资者不仅损失了很多钱，还损失了很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Utility stocks weren’t great, but they held up better. And Treasury bills—short-term paper—did better still. But once again you were going backward when you needed to be going forwards.</p><p><blockquote>公用事业股表现不佳，但表现较好。短期票据——国库券——表现更好。但是当你需要前进的时候，你又一次倒退了。</blockquote></p><p> No one who remembers the 1970s will be surprised that energy companies boomed. Less well-remembered, maybe, is that REITs also did pretty well. These numbers, incidentally, represented property-owning REITs and excluded mortgage REITs, which own loans.</p><p><blockquote>任何记得20世纪70年代的人都不会对能源公司的蓬勃发展感到惊讶。也许不太为人所知的是，房地产投资信托基金的表现也相当不错。顺便说一句，这些数字代表拥有财产的房地产投资信托基金，不包括拥有贷款的抵押房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> But there are two caveats to this. The first is that of course energy stocks did well, because a key driver of inflation in the 1970s was the rise of OPEC and two oil embargoes it imposed on the West for political reasons. Cue Heraclitus. There is no particular reason to assume that the next inflationary surge will be the same.</p><p><blockquote>但对此有两个警告。首先，能源股当然表现良好，因为20世纪70年代通胀的一个关键驱动因素是欧佩克的崛起及其出于政治原因对西方实施的两次石油禁运。提示赫拉克利特。没有特别的理由假设下一次通胀飙升会是一样的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The second caveat is that although REITs ended up doing well, they were volatile along the way. In particular, REIT prices collapsed in the OPEC-driven recession of 1972-4. And according to FactSet, U.S. REITs today already look pretty expensive on some measures. For instance it reckons that the forecast dividend yield on the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (a reasonable benchmark for the industry) is just 2.9% — by far the lowest since it was launched in 2004. Looking through NAREIT data, I can’t find a moment since 1971 when the overall yield on REITs was this low. During the real estate bubble in 2007, incidentally, the yield bottomed out no lower than 3.6%</p><p><blockquote>第二个警告是，尽管房地产投资信托基金最终表现良好，但一路上波动较大。特别是，房地产投资信托基金价格在1972-1974年欧佩克引发的经济衰退中暴跌。根据FactSet的数据，从某些指标来看，如今的美国房地产投资信托基金看起来已经相当昂贵。例如，它估计Vanguard Real Estate ETF（该行业的合理基准）的预测股息收益率仅为2.9%，是自2004年推出以来的最低水平。翻阅NAREIT数据，自1971年以来，我找不到REITs整体收益率如此之低的时刻。2007年房地产泡沫期间，顺带一提，收益率见底不低于3.6%</blockquote></p><p> So it may be that REITs offer less inflation protection today than we would hope.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今房地产投资信托基金提供的通胀保护可能比我们希望的要少。</blockquote></p><p> One key difference in the 1970s is that there were no “inflation-protected” Treasury bonds to keep investors protected. So-called TIPS are in theory almost the perfect investment for retirees. They are issued by the U.S. government and their coupons are safe against default. Meanwhile their coupons effectively adjust to reflect changes in consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>20世纪70年代的一个关键区别是，没有“通胀保值”国债来保护投资者。理论上，所谓的小费几乎是退休人员的完美投资。它们由美国政府发行，其优惠券不会违约。与此同时，他们的优惠券有效地调整以反映消费价格的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The problem today is that TIPS—like almost everything else in the bond market—look incredibly expensive. Most TIPS already lock in an actual loss of purchasing power if you buy them today. For example if you buy 5 year TIPS bonds and hold them for 5 years you’ll end up losing 9% of your purchasing power. And 30-year TIPS bonds offer the same 9% loss, though stretched out over 30 years.</p><p><blockquote>今天的问题是，TIPS——就像债券市场上的几乎所有东西一样——看起来非常昂贵。如果你今天购买，大多数建议已经锁定了购买力的实际损失。例如，如果你购买5年期TIPS债券并持有5年，你最终会损失9%的购买力。30年期TIPS债券的损失同样为9%，尽管期限延长了30年。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not very compelling. And it shows the risks that the government’s policy responses have created for those in retirement and near it.</p><p><blockquote>这不是很引人注目。它还显示了政府的政策应对给退休和接近退休年龄的人带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-inflation-heres-how-investments-did-in-the-1970s-11626658251?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worried-about-inflation-heres-how-investments-did-in-the-1970s-11626658251?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1129846769","content_text":"In the 1990s movie The Shipping News, an old newspaperman explains to Kevin Spacey how to cover the news. If there is a storm visible anywhere, he explains, you write “Storm threatens the town,” even if the storm is nowhere near and is unlikely to hit. If—as expected—the storm never hits, you just write the follow up: “Town spared by storm.”\nReaders may be excused for thinking something similar about the latest stories about looming, threatening, surging, terrifying inflation. Yes, the inflation forecasts were surging months ago, and hit 8-year highs. Had they continued there would be grounds to worry. But they haven’t continued. On the contrary, they’ve been falling for two months. The bond market’s 5-year inflation forecast is now lower than it was in mid-March. The market sees five-year inflation running at around 2.6%. That’s higher than we’ve been used to for a decade, but it’s nothing to cause any significant alarm.\nThat can change, of course. Maybe it will. We’ll see.\nBut with all this talk I got to thinking about the obvious question. If serious inflation really does hit, what can we do about it? How can we protect our investments?\nThat’s an especially key question for today’s retirees and those expecting to retire soon. When we’re older we’re generally advised to keep most of our money in more “conservative” investments, meaning things like bonds, that involve less risk. Someone in their 20s or 30s may not worry unduly if their retirement savings plunge 30% in a market rout or an inflationary spiral. For someone in their 60s, let alone older, that can become a major financial crisis.\nSo I went back and dug up the information from the last, infamous inflationary spiral in the 1970s, when consumer price inflation often topped 10% a year. The Greek philosopher Heraclitus pointed out that no one ever walks through the same stream twice, because the second time it’s not the same stream, and we’re not the same person. Everything changes. There is no guarantee the next inflationary boom, even if it happens, will look anything like the last one — any more than we should assume that it will be accompanied by outbreaks of disco music and flared jeans.\nNonetheless the chart above shows the total returns, after adjusting for inflation, of various asset classes from December 1971 to December 1981. (I used those dates because the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, or NAREIT, starts their data series then.) The data on energy stocks came from data compiled by professor Ken French at Dartmouth College’s Tuck School of Business.\nThis is what happened to your purchasing power if you invested in these assets and hung on for 10 years. (I’ve excluded gold, which is a different story.)\nThe key standout is that you really didn’t want to own Treasury bonds. The near 40% loss of purchasing power over 10 years is somewhat notional—it is derived from the compound annual returns on 10 Year Treasurys compiled by New York University’s Stern School of Business, divided by the consumer-price index—but tells a story nonetheless. (In Great Britain, where inflation was even worse, government bonds during the 1970s became known as “certificates of confiscation.” Ouch.)\nHolding them cost you money. Lots of it.\nYou could argue that the danger today is even greater, simply because the yields on long-term Treasury bonds are so low. Federal Reserve quantitative easing, bond buying, and zero interest-rate policies have left Treasury yields at their lowest on record—which means the turns would be a disaster if inflation reared its head.\nCorporate bonds and the S&P 500 were also terrible investments. It’s worth remembering that these are real term losses over a decade, which means investors didn’t just lose a lot of money—they also lost a lot of time.\nUtility stocks weren’t great, but they held up better. And Treasury bills—short-term paper—did better still. But once again you were going backward when you needed to be going forwards.\nNo one who remembers the 1970s will be surprised that energy companies boomed. Less well-remembered, maybe, is that REITs also did pretty well. These numbers, incidentally, represented property-owning REITs and excluded mortgage REITs, which own loans.\nBut there are two caveats to this. The first is that of course energy stocks did well, because a key driver of inflation in the 1970s was the rise of OPEC and two oil embargoes it imposed on the West for political reasons. Cue Heraclitus. There is no particular reason to assume that the next inflationary surge will be the same.\nThe second caveat is that although REITs ended up doing well, they were volatile along the way. In particular, REIT prices collapsed in the OPEC-driven recession of 1972-4. And according to FactSet, U.S. REITs today already look pretty expensive on some measures. For instance it reckons that the forecast dividend yield on the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (a reasonable benchmark for the industry) is just 2.9% — by far the lowest since it was launched in 2004. Looking through NAREIT data, I can’t find a moment since 1971 when the overall yield on REITs was this low. During the real estate bubble in 2007, incidentally, the yield bottomed out no lower than 3.6%\nSo it may be that REITs offer less inflation protection today than we would hope.\nOne key difference in the 1970s is that there were no “inflation-protected” Treasury bonds to keep investors protected. So-called TIPS are in theory almost the perfect investment for retirees. They are issued by the U.S. government and their coupons are safe against default. Meanwhile their coupons effectively adjust to reflect changes in consumer prices.\nThe problem today is that TIPS—like almost everything else in the bond market—look incredibly expensive. Most TIPS already lock in an actual loss of purchasing power if you buy them today. For example if you buy 5 year TIPS bonds and hold them for 5 years you’ll end up losing 9% of your purchasing power. And 30-year TIPS bonds offer the same 9% loss, though stretched out over 30 years.\nIt’s not very compelling. And it shows the risks that the government’s policy responses have created for those in retirement and near 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