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2021-10-25

Oh snap

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2021-10-17

Sweet nuts

Plug Power's Lowered Guidance Lacking Detail, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师表示，Plug Power 下调的指导缺乏细节</blockquote>

2021-10-13

Sweet nuts

Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>

2021-10-01

Sweet nuts

Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>

2021-10-01

Sweet nuts

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2021-10-01

Sweet nuts

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2021-09-20

Sweet nuts

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2021-09-16

Sweet nuts

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2021-09-03

Sweet nuts

Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-02

Sweet nuts

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2021-08-29

Sweet nuts

Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>

2021-08-28

Sweet nuts

Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>

2021-08-27

Sweet nuts

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2021-08-17

Sweet nuts

Tencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Sweet nuts

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2021-08-17

Sweet nuts

3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Sweet nuts

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2021-08-15

Sweet nuts

These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>

2021-08-10

Sweet nuts

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2021-08-08

Sweet nuts

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He has a price target of ","content":"<p>'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of $13 for the stock, compared to its recent quote of $32.08.</p><p><blockquote>Coker Palmer 分析师 Vaibhav Vaishnav 写道：“没有提供细节。”他对该股的目标价为 13 美元，而最近的报价为 32.08 美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Plug Power&nbsp;shares firmed Friday after the hydrogen technology company’s earnings guidance beat expectations, at least one analyst wanted something else: details.</p><p><blockquote>虽然普拉格能源的股价周五在这家氢技术公司的盈利指引超出预期后走强，但至少有一位分析师想要的是别的东西：细节。</blockquote></p><p> “Details were not provided,” Vaibhav Vaishnav of Coker Palmer Institutional wrote in a commentary. He sees tough sledding for Plug Power’s stock in the near term, with a price target of $13. He rates Plug Power a sector underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“Coker Palmer Institutional 的 Vaibhav Vaishnav 在一篇评论中写道：”没有提供细节。他认为普拉格能源的股价在短期内将面临艰难的下滑，目标价为 13 美元。他将普拉格能源评为表现不佳的行业。</blockquote></p><p> The stock recently traded at $32.13, up 1%.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近交易价格为 32.13 美元，上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Among the details Vaishnav sees as missing: Specifics on the company's $3 billion revenue estimate as well as investments needed to achieve its stated targets.</p><p><blockquote>Vaishnav 认为缺失的细节包括：该公司 30 亿美元收入估计的细节以及实现既定目标所需的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “The company spoke only about $1 billion in revenue from material handling and $700 million from hydrogen fuel,” Vaishnav said. “We assume the current four segments together total $1 billion, and $700 million is from third-party sales. PLUG also mentioned three gigawatt installed electrolyzers by 2025,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”该公司只谈到了大约 10 亿美元的物料搬运收入和 7 亿美元的氢燃料收入。“我们假设目前四个部门的总收入为 10 亿美元，其中 7 亿美元来自第三方销售。PLUG 还提到，到 2025 年，将安装 3 千兆瓦的电解槽，”这位分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, Plug Power is targeting 500 Temperature Programmed Desorption (TPD) plants and 1,000 TPD plants by 2025/'28 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，普拉格能源的目标是到2025/28年分别建成500座程序升温解吸(TPD)工厂和1000座TPD工厂。</blockquote></p><p> \"Each 20 TPD plant costs $100 million, implying $2 billion/$4 billion capex beyond the initial 100 TPD targeted by the end of 2022,\" Viashnav wrote. \"PLUG intends to build a GW factory in Korea and a 2 GW factory in Australia. The HYVIA production facility could cost $200 million.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 写道：“每个 20 TPD 工厂的成本为 1 亿美元，这意味着比到 2022 年底最初设定的 100 TPD 目标还要高出 20 亿美元/40 亿美元的资本支出。”“PLUG 打算在韩国建设一座 GW 工厂，在澳大利亚建设一座 2 GW 工厂。HYVIA 生产设施可能耗资 2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Also lacking additional detail, according to Viashnav: the company's estimates on how much it can make on hydrogen sales.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 表示，还缺乏更多细节：该公司对氢销售收入的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “The average purchase price for hydrogen from third parties, the amount of hydrogen lost in storage/transfer and the selling price to internal customers,\" Vaishnav said.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”从第三方购买氢气的平均价格、储存/转移过程中的氢气损失量以及向内部客户出售的价格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The company estimates it can generate 30% gross margins at $6/kilogram, which makes sense to us. But we look for clarity on translation from the $6/kg selling price to an effective price realized of $4/Kg in 2019/’20/1H ‘21.”</p><p><blockquote>“该公司估计，每公斤 6 美元可实现 30% 的毛利率，这对我们来说很有意义。但我们希望明确如何将 6 美元/公斤的售价转换为 2019/20/1 上半年 21 年实现的 4 美元/公斤的有效价格。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power's Lowered Guidance Lacking Detail, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师表示，Plug Power 下调的指导缺乏细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power's Lowered Guidance Lacking Detail, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师表示，Plug Power 下调的指导缺乏细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 23:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of $13 for the stock, compared to its recent quote of $32.08.</p><p><blockquote>Coker Palmer 分析师 Vaibhav Vaishnav 写道：“没有提供细节。”他对该股的目标价为 13 美元，而最近的报价为 32.08 美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Plug Power&nbsp;shares firmed Friday after the hydrogen technology company’s earnings guidance beat expectations, at least one analyst wanted something else: details.</p><p><blockquote>虽然普拉格能源的股价周五在这家氢技术公司的盈利指引超出预期后走强，但至少有一位分析师想要的是别的东西：细节。</blockquote></p><p> “Details were not provided,” Vaibhav Vaishnav of Coker Palmer Institutional wrote in a commentary. He sees tough sledding for Plug Power’s stock in the near term, with a price target of $13. He rates Plug Power a sector underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“Coker Palmer Institutional 的 Vaibhav Vaishnav 在一篇评论中写道：”没有提供细节。他认为普拉格能源的股价在短期内将面临艰难的下滑，目标价为 13 美元。他将普拉格能源评为表现不佳的行业。</blockquote></p><p> The stock recently traded at $32.13, up 1%.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近交易价格为 32.13 美元，上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Among the details Vaishnav sees as missing: Specifics on the company's $3 billion revenue estimate as well as investments needed to achieve its stated targets.</p><p><blockquote>Vaishnav 认为缺失的细节包括：该公司 30 亿美元收入估计的细节以及实现既定目标所需的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “The company spoke only about $1 billion in revenue from material handling and $700 million from hydrogen fuel,” Vaishnav said. “We assume the current four segments together total $1 billion, and $700 million is from third-party sales. PLUG also mentioned three gigawatt installed electrolyzers by 2025,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”该公司只谈到了大约 10 亿美元的物料搬运收入和 7 亿美元的氢燃料收入。“我们假设目前四个部门的总收入为 10 亿美元，其中 7 亿美元来自第三方销售。PLUG 还提到，到 2025 年，将安装 3 千兆瓦的电解槽，”这位分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, Plug Power is targeting 500 Temperature Programmed Desorption (TPD) plants and 1,000 TPD plants by 2025/'28 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，普拉格能源的目标是到2025/28年分别建成500座程序升温解吸(TPD)工厂和1000座TPD工厂。</blockquote></p><p> \"Each 20 TPD plant costs $100 million, implying $2 billion/$4 billion capex beyond the initial 100 TPD targeted by the end of 2022,\" Viashnav wrote. \"PLUG intends to build a GW factory in Korea and a 2 GW factory in Australia. The HYVIA production facility could cost $200 million.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 写道：“每个 20 TPD 工厂的成本为 1 亿美元，这意味着比到 2022 年底最初设定的 100 TPD 目标还要高出 20 亿美元/40 亿美元的资本支出。”“PLUG 打算在韩国建设一座 GW 工厂，在澳大利亚建设一座 2 GW 工厂。HYVIA 生产设施可能耗资 2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Also lacking additional detail, according to Viashnav: the company's estimates on how much it can make on hydrogen sales.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 表示，还缺乏更多细节：该公司对氢销售收入的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “The average purchase price for hydrogen from third parties, the amount of hydrogen lost in storage/transfer and the selling price to internal customers,\" Vaishnav said.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”从第三方购买氢气的平均价格、储存/转移过程中的氢气损失量以及向内部客户出售的价格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The company estimates it can generate 30% gross margins at $6/kilogram, which makes sense to us. But we look for clarity on translation from the $6/kg selling price to an effective price realized of $4/Kg in 2019/’20/1H ‘21.”</p><p><blockquote>“该公司估计，每公斤 6 美元可实现 30% 的毛利率，这对我们来说很有意义。但我们希望明确如何将 6 美元/公斤的售价转换为 2019/20/1 上半年 21 年实现的 4 美元/公斤的有效价格。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/coker-palmer-lack-of-detail-plug-power\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/coker-palmer-lack-of-detail-plug-power","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169383767","content_text":"'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of $13 for the stock, compared to its recent quote of $32.08.\nWhile Plug Power shares firmed Friday after the hydrogen technology company’s earnings guidance beat expectations, at least one analyst wanted something else: details.\n“Details were not provided,” Vaibhav Vaishnav of Coker Palmer Institutional wrote in a commentary. He sees tough sledding for Plug Power’s stock in the near term, with a price target of $13. He rates Plug Power a sector underperform.\nThe stock recently traded at $32.13, up 1%.\nAmong the details Vaishnav sees as missing: Specifics on the company's $3 billion revenue estimate as well as investments needed to achieve its stated targets.\n“The company spoke only about $1 billion in revenue from material handling and $700 million from hydrogen fuel,” Vaishnav said. “We assume the current four segments together total $1 billion, and $700 million is from third-party sales. PLUG also mentioned three gigawatt installed electrolyzers by 2025,\" the analyst wrote.\nWhat's more, Plug Power is targeting 500 Temperature Programmed Desorption (TPD) plants and 1,000 TPD plants by 2025/'28 respectively.\n\"Each 20 TPD plant costs $100 million, implying $2 billion/$4 billion capex beyond the initial 100 TPD targeted by the end of 2022,\" Viashnav wrote. \"PLUG intends to build a GW factory in Korea and a 2 GW factory in Australia. The HYVIA production facility could cost $200 million.\nAlso lacking additional detail, according to Viashnav: the company's estimates on how much it can make on hydrogen sales.\n“The average purchase price for hydrogen from third parties, the amount of hydrogen lost in storage/transfer and the selling price to internal customers,\" Vaishnav said.\n\"The company estimates it can generate 30% gross margins at $6/kilogram, which makes sense to us. But we look for clarity on translation from the $6/kg selling price to an effective price realized of $4/Kg in 2019/’20/1H ‘21.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822190110,"gmtCreate":1634098166054,"gmtModify":1634099001883,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822190110","repostId":"1198930462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 21:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864321860,"gmtCreate":1633059802306,"gmtModify":1633063449684,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864321860","repostId":"1124647688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124647688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633048079,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124647688?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124647688","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, ","content":"<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告说，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前预期更快的速度加息，这可能会对股市基准进行调整。</blockquote></p><p> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p><p><blockquote>这位沃顿商学院教授在 2015 年将道琼斯指数预测为 20,000 点，他在周三接受 CNBC 采访时表示，他 “对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote></p><p> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示，美国一轮高通胀可能会持续到明年初，因为零部件和材料短缺可能会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p><p><blockquote>部分金融市场正在经历大幅价格飙升，包括天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，在美国供应紧张和全球需求走强的情况下，达到2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p><p><blockquote><b>阅读：</b>美国通货膨胀率处于30年来的最高水平</blockquote></p><p> <b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p><p><blockquote><b>所以：</b>美联储威廉姆斯预测2022年高通胀率将降至2%</blockquote></p><p> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上说：”看到供应链问题没有好转，事实上它们可能正在恶化，这令人沮丧。“在此期间，很难说影响会有多大，会持续多久。”</blockquote></p><p> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>使用美联储首选个人消费支出价格指数，美国通货膨胀率在截至 7 月份的 12 个月中以 4.2% 的速度上涨。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更广为人知的消费者价格指数，通货膨胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子普通商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储的其他人几个月来一直认为通胀飙升是 “暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔表示，预计美联储将于 11 月开始缩减规模，并于 2022 年中期结束缩减规模，并着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速行动，这将推高收益率，降低股市。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%，盘中小幅上涨。科技股充足的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote></p><p> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产调整定义为较近期峰值下跌至少 10%，但不超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，基准 10 年期国债 TETMUBMUSD10Y（1.504%）的收益率为 1.54%，高于周二的 1.534%，该收益率为 1.54%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，本季度迄今为止，该票据已上涨近 10 个基点，仅 9 月份就上涨了 23.7 个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProfessor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告说，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前预期更快的速度加息，这可能会对股市基准进行调整。</blockquote></p><p> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p><p><blockquote>这位沃顿商学院教授在 2015 年将道琼斯指数预测为 20,000 点，他在周三接受 CNBC 采访时表示，他 “对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote></p><p> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示，美国一轮高通胀可能会持续到明年初，因为零部件和材料短缺可能会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p><p><blockquote>部分金融市场正在经历大幅价格飙升，包括天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，在美国供应紧张和全球需求走强的情况下，达到2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p><p><blockquote><b>阅读：</b>美国通货膨胀率处于30年来的最高水平</blockquote></p><p> <b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p><p><blockquote><b>所以：</b>美联储威廉姆斯预测2022年高通胀率将降至2%</blockquote></p><p> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上说：”看到供应链问题没有好转，事实上它们可能正在恶化，这令人沮丧。“在此期间，很难说影响会有多大，会持续多久。”</blockquote></p><p> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>使用美联储首选个人消费支出价格指数，美国通货膨胀率在截至 7 月份的 12 个月中以 4.2% 的速度上涨。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更广为人知的消费者价格指数，通货膨胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子普通商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储的其他人几个月来一直认为通胀飙升是 “暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔表示，预计美联储将于 11 月开始缩减规模，并于 2022 年中期结束缩减规模，并着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速行动，这将推高收益率，降低股市。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%，盘中小幅上涨。科技股充足的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote></p><p> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产调整定义为较近期峰值下跌至少 10%，但不超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，基准 10 年期国债 TETMUBMUSD10Y（1.504%）的收益率为 1.54%，高于周二的 1.534%，该收益率为 1.54%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，本季度迄今为止，该票据已上涨近 10 个基点，仅 9 月份就上涨了 23.7 个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124647688","content_text":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.\nThe Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000 in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”\nThe academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.\nParts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.\nRead:Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years\nAlso:Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022\n“It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”\nThe rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.\nPowell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”\nHowever, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.\nSiegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.\nA correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.\nMeanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864323283,"gmtCreate":1633059757294,"gmtModify":1633063443825,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864323283","repostId":"2172095220","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864323144,"gmtCreate":1633059745030,"gmtModify":1633063439313,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864323144","repostId":"1169857742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887765363,"gmtCreate":1632100717152,"gmtModify":1632802858044,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts&nbsp;","listText":"Sweet nuts&nbsp;","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887765363","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885312599,"gmtCreate":1631756461111,"gmtModify":1631889783302,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885312599","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815918821,"gmtCreate":1630634753263,"gmtModify":1631889783304,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815918821","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812995738,"gmtCreate":1630545255924,"gmtModify":1631889783304,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812995738","repostId":"2164481914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813608183,"gmtCreate":1630194404542,"gmtModify":1704956796413,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813608183","repostId":"1162964424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162964424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111098,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162964424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162964424","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year  should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is con","content":"<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些零部件价格上涨，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待他们的口袋更深。据 DigiTimes 报道，由于零部件通胀，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会在下个月以更高的价格上市。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，AAPL 可能是一个很好的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生什么事了？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max型号的价格可能高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高 3% 至 5%，这可能会导致尚未发布的 iPhone 13 的价格也出现类似的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能在不确定这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响的情况下试图提高价格。苹果可能有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·克莱默的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市面临的最令人担忧的阻力之一是通货膨胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致 2021-2022 年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会跑赢大盘。这是 Mad Money 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时......我想让你问问自己，如果公司实施涨价，你会对涨价麻木不仁吗？[有哪些]公司可以在不激怒你的情况下提高价格？去买他们的股票吧。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么价格上涨也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界的真正运作方式。价格的变化往往会对几个关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果价格上涨对销量没有太大影响或根本没有影响，这对收入和最有可能的盈利来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一件要考虑的事情是价格上涨是完全还是仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。由于移动部件众多，因此很难确定价格更高的 iPhone 未来会对苹果的财务报表产生怎样的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些零部件价格上涨，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待他们的口袋更深。据 DigiTimes 报道，由于零部件通胀，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会在下个月以更高的价格上市。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，AAPL 可能是一个很好的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生什么事了？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max型号的价格可能高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高 3% 至 5%，这可能会导致尚未发布的 iPhone 13 的价格也出现类似的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能在不确定这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响的情况下试图提高价格。苹果可能有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·克莱默的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市面临的最令人担忧的阻力之一是通货膨胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致 2021-2022 年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会跑赢大盘。这是 Mad Money 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时......我想让你问问自己，如果公司实施涨价，你会对涨价麻木不仁吗？[有哪些]公司可以在不激怒你的情况下提高价格？去买他们的股票吧。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么价格上涨也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界的真正运作方式。价格的变化往往会对几个关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果价格上涨对销量没有太大影响或根本没有影响，这对收入和最有可能的盈利来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一件要考虑的事情是价格上涨是完全还是仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。由于移动部件众多，因此很难确定价格更高的 iPhone 未来会对苹果的财务报表产生怎样的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162964424","content_text":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.\nIPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.\nBad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.\nWhat happened?\nThe iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.\nIt is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.\nFigure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.\nA quote from Jim Cramer\nOne of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.\nGenerally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:\n\n “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”\n\nThe impact to the P&L\nAre higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.\nHolding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.\nHowever, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.\nThe other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813339738,"gmtCreate":1630129297224,"gmtModify":1704956388823,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813339738","repostId":"1162964424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162964424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111098,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162964424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162964424","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year  should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is con","content":"<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些零部件价格上涨，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待他们的口袋更深。据 DigiTimes 报道，由于零部件通胀，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会在下个月以更高的价格上市。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，AAPL 可能是一个很好的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生什么事了？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max型号的价格可能高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高 3% 至 5%，这可能会导致尚未发布的 iPhone 13 的价格也出现类似的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能在不确定这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响的情况下试图提高价格。苹果可能有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·克莱默的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市面临的最令人担忧的阻力之一是通货膨胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致 2021-2022 年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会跑赢大盘。这是 Mad Money 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时......我想让你问问自己，如果公司实施涨价，你会对涨价麻木不仁吗？[有哪些]公司可以在不激怒你的情况下提高价格？去买他们的股票吧。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么价格上涨也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界的真正运作方式。价格的变化往往会对几个关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果价格上涨对销量没有太大影响或根本没有影响，这对收入和最有可能的盈利来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一件要考虑的事情是价格上涨是完全还是仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。由于移动部件众多，因此很难确定价格更高的 iPhone 未来会对苹果的财务报表产生怎样的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些零部件价格上涨，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待他们的口袋更深。据 DigiTimes 报道，由于零部件通胀，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会在下个月以更高的价格上市。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，AAPL 可能是一个很好的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生什么事了？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max型号的价格可能高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高 3% 至 5%，这可能会导致尚未发布的 iPhone 13 的价格也出现类似的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能在不确定这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响的情况下试图提高价格。苹果可能有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·克莱默的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市面临的最令人担忧的阻力之一是通货膨胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致 2021-2022 年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会跑赢大盘。这是 Mad Money 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时......我想让你问问自己，如果公司实施涨价，你会对涨价麻木不仁吗？[有哪些]公司可以在不激怒你的情况下提高价格？去买他们的股票吧。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么价格上涨也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界的真正运作方式。价格的变化往往会对几个关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果价格上涨对销量没有太大影响或根本没有影响，这对收入和最有可能的盈利来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一件要考虑的事情是价格上涨是完全还是仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。由于移动部件众多，因此很难确定价格更高的 iPhone 未来会对苹果的财务报表产生怎样的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162964424","content_text":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.\nIPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.\nBad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.\nWhat happened?\nThe iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.\nIt is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.\nFigure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.\nA quote from Jim Cramer\nOne of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.\nGenerally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:\n\n “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”\n\nThe impact to the P&L\nAre higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.\nHolding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.\nHowever, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.\nThe other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819329480,"gmtCreate":1630035705740,"gmtModify":1704954973065,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819329480","repostId":"1126443939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839723830,"gmtCreate":1629183368020,"gmtModify":1631889783318,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839723830","repostId":"1132782904","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132782904","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629154076,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132782904?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 06:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132782904","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)\nTencent Music fell over 8% in morning trading Tuesday.\n\nCh","content":"<p><i>(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 8 月 16 日上午 9:41）</i></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a> fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;8%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯控股音乐</a>周二早盘交易中下跌超过 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04723d8ee28ade3b89d17c69d5941e40\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China's Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME.N)beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit on Monday as its advertising business rebounded and more people subscribed to its music streaming platform.</p><p><blockquote>中国腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团(TME.N)周一第二季度利润超出华尔街预期，原因是其广告业务反弹，且更多人订阅了其音乐流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> Paid subscribers for the company's online music service grew by 41% to 66.2 million, thanks to investments in long-form audio and a refreshed music library expanded by licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Sony Music and other labels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在线音乐服务的付费订户增长了 41%，达到 6620 万，这要归功于对长格式音频的投资以及通过与环球音乐集团、索尼音乐和其他唱片公司的授权协议扩大的更新音乐库。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music shares were up 3.1% in extended trading. They have lost half of their market value this year due to a ruling that barred the company's parent, Tencent Holdings Ltd, from exclusive music copyright agreements.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐股价在盘后交易中上涨3.1%。由于一项裁决禁止该公司的母公司腾讯控股控股有限公司签订独家音乐版权协议，他们今年已经损失了一半的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f85b9406d6ed4f369df89d7ec11fd9\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said it expected the decision to have some impact on its operations, without specifying a figure.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，预计这一决定将对其运营产生一些影响，但没有具体说明具体数字。</blockquote></p><p> Losing exclusive rights means Tencent Music will likely have to redouble efforts to build a more interactive community while facing a challenge from ByteDance that is using Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - to promote music backed by sophisticated algorithms.</p><p><blockquote>失去独家版权意味着腾讯控股音乐可能不得不加倍努力建立一个更具互动性的社区，同时面临来自字节跳动的挑战，字节跳动正在使用抖音（抖音的中国版本）来推广由复杂算法支持的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music's social entertainment services business, which includes karaoke platforms where users can live stream concerts, posted a 7.4% rise in revenue to 5.06 billion yuan in the quarter and accounted for most of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐的社交娱乐服务业务（包括用户可以直播音乐会的卡拉OK平台）本季度收入增长7.4%，达到50.6亿元人民币，占其收入的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue rose by 15.5% to 8.01 billion yuan ($1.24 billion), but missed a Refinitiv IBES estimate of 8.13 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>总收入增长 15.5%，达到 80.1 亿元人民币（12.4 亿美元），但低于 Refinitiv IBES 预期的 81.3 亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p> The company earned 0.66 yuan per American depository share on an adjusted basis, more than estimates of 0.62 yuan.</p><p><blockquote>调整后，该公司每股美国存托股收益为 0.66 元，高于预期的 0.62 元。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 6.4742 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=6.4742人民币）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music earnings beat estimates on subscriber, ad boost<blockquote>腾讯控股音乐盈利因订户和广告增长超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 06:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 8 月 16 日上午 9:41）</i></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a> fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;8%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯控股音乐</a>周二早盘交易中下跌超过 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04723d8ee28ade3b89d17c69d5941e40\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China's Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME.N)beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit on Monday as its advertising business rebounded and more people subscribed to its music streaming platform.</p><p><blockquote>中国腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团(TME.N)周一第二季度利润超出华尔街预期，原因是其广告业务反弹，且更多人订阅了其音乐流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> Paid subscribers for the company's online music service grew by 41% to 66.2 million, thanks to investments in long-form audio and a refreshed music library expanded by licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Sony Music and other labels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在线音乐服务的付费订户增长了 41%，达到 6620 万，这要归功于对长格式音频的投资以及通过与环球音乐集团、索尼音乐和其他唱片公司的授权协议扩大的更新音乐库。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music shares were up 3.1% in extended trading. They have lost half of their market value this year due to a ruling that barred the company's parent, Tencent Holdings Ltd, from exclusive music copyright agreements.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐股价在盘后交易中上涨3.1%。由于一项裁决禁止该公司的母公司腾讯控股控股有限公司签订独家音乐版权协议，他们今年已经损失了一半的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f85b9406d6ed4f369df89d7ec11fd9\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said it expected the decision to have some impact on its operations, without specifying a figure.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，预计这一决定将对其运营产生一些影响，但没有具体说明具体数字。</blockquote></p><p> Losing exclusive rights means Tencent Music will likely have to redouble efforts to build a more interactive community while facing a challenge from ByteDance that is using Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - to promote music backed by sophisticated algorithms.</p><p><blockquote>失去独家版权意味着腾讯控股音乐可能不得不加倍努力建立一个更具互动性的社区，同时面临来自字节跳动的挑战，字节跳动正在使用抖音（抖音的中国版本）来推广由复杂算法支持的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music's social entertainment services business, which includes karaoke platforms where users can live stream concerts, posted a 7.4% rise in revenue to 5.06 billion yuan in the quarter and accounted for most of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐的社交娱乐服务业务（包括用户可以直播音乐会的卡拉OK平台）本季度收入增长7.4%，达到50.6亿元人民币，占其收入的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue rose by 15.5% to 8.01 billion yuan ($1.24 billion), but missed a Refinitiv IBES estimate of 8.13 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>总收入增长 15.5%，达到 80.1 亿元人民币（12.4 亿美元），但低于 Refinitiv IBES 预期的 81.3 亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p> The company earned 0.66 yuan per American depository share on an adjusted basis, more than estimates of 0.62 yuan.</p><p><blockquote>调整后，该公司每股美国存托股收益为 0.66 元，高于预期的 0.62 元。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 6.4742 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=6.4742人民币）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132782904","content_text":"(Update: August 16, 2021 at 9:41 a.m. ET)\nTencent Music fell over 8% in morning trading Tuesday.\n\nChina's Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME.N)beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit on Monday as its advertising business rebounded and more people subscribed to its music streaming platform.\nPaid subscribers for the company's online music service grew by 41% to 66.2 million, thanks to investments in long-form audio and a refreshed music library expanded by licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Sony Music and other labels.\nTencent Music shares were up 3.1% in extended trading. They have lost half of their market value this year due to a ruling that barred the company's parent, Tencent Holdings Ltd, from exclusive music copyright agreements.\n\nThe company said it expected the decision to have some impact on its operations, without specifying a figure.\nLosing exclusive rights means Tencent Music will likely have to redouble efforts to build a more interactive community while facing a challenge from ByteDance that is using Douyin - the Chinese version of TikTok - to promote music backed by sophisticated algorithms.\nTencent Music's social entertainment services business, which includes karaoke platforms where users can live stream concerts, posted a 7.4% rise in revenue to 5.06 billion yuan in the quarter and accounted for most of its revenue.\nTotal revenue rose by 15.5% to 8.01 billion yuan ($1.24 billion), but missed a Refinitiv IBES estimate of 8.13 billion yuan.\nThe company earned 0.66 yuan per American depository share on an adjusted basis, more than estimates of 0.62 yuan.\n($1 = 6.4742 Chinese yuan renminbi)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839729766,"gmtCreate":1629183339455,"gmtModify":1631889783320,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839729766","repostId":"2160279584","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839729544,"gmtCreate":1629183307588,"gmtModify":1631889783327,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839729544","repostId":"1133874781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133874781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629164267,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133874781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133874781","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazo","content":"<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票可能比当今亚马逊更好的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的行为相似，尤其是在过去一两年里。请看下面的一年滚动相关性图表--越接近+1，股票的日回报率就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了三个原因，说明为什么 AAPL 可能比同行 AMZN 更好。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven很快就会站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，以确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL 与 AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后跑赢大盘</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度收益以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增长率的急剧放缓。亚马逊已经证明，大流行病时期对公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>相反的情况发生在苹果身上。虽然较为悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但事实证明他们错了： 第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了 36% 和 101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对角度来看，不可否认的是，苹果股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了 AMZN 的估值如何比苹果高得多，无论是在追踪收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价不完美的环境中，多花一点钱购买人们可能认为更好的股票可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样的时期，股票估值似乎捉襟见肘，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.被低估的增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，Seeking Alpha 表示，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，虽然亚马逊在电子商务和云计算领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果的股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家位于库比蒂诺的公司可能会在明年或 2023 年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票可能比当今亚马逊更好的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的行为相似，尤其是在过去一两年里。请看下面的一年滚动相关性图表--越接近+1，股票的日回报率就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了三个原因，说明为什么 AAPL 可能比同行 AMZN 更好。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven很快就会站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，以确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL 与 AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后跑赢大盘</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度收益以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增长率的急剧放缓。亚马逊已经证明，大流行病时期对公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>相反的情况发生在苹果身上。虽然较为悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但事实证明他们错了： 第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了 36% 和 101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对角度来看，不可否认的是，苹果股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了 AMZN 的估值如何比苹果高得多，无论是在追踪收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价不完美的环境中，多花一点钱购买人们可能认为更好的股票可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样的时期，股票估值似乎捉襟见肘，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.被低估的增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，Seeking Alpha 表示，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，虽然亚马逊在电子商务和云计算领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果的股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家位于库比蒂诺的公司可能会在明年或 2023 年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133874781","content_text":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazon or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.\nBut today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel Amazon Maven will soon take the other side of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.\nFigure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.\n#1. Post-pandemic outperformer\nSince reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.\nThe opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.\nFigure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.\n#2. Valuations more appealing\nIn absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).\nIn an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.\nFigure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.\n#3. Underappreciated growth\nLastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.\nThe Cupertino company could be introducing a new mixed reality headset next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839729087,"gmtCreate":1629183256649,"gmtModify":1631889783328,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839729087","repostId":"2159222279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830988573,"gmtCreate":1629000735492,"gmtModify":1631893656334,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts&nbsp;","listText":"Sweet nuts&nbsp;","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830988573","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VAC":"万豪度假环球","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","UPWK":"Upwork Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VAC":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"TREX":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"UPWK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896629228,"gmtCreate":1628579610964,"gmtModify":1631893656344,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896629228","repostId":"1127196790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891626996,"gmtCreate":1628387822915,"gmtModify":1631893656355,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","idStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891626996","repostId":"1119792130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":864321860,"gmtCreate":1633059802306,"gmtModify":1633063449684,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864321860","repostId":"1124647688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124647688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633048079,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124647688?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124647688","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, ","content":"<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告说，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前预期更快的速度加息，这可能会对股市基准进行调整。</blockquote></p><p> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p><p><blockquote>这位沃顿商学院教授在 2015 年将道琼斯指数预测为 20,000 点，他在周三接受 CNBC 采访时表示，他 “对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote></p><p> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示，美国一轮高通胀可能会持续到明年初，因为零部件和材料短缺可能会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p><p><blockquote>部分金融市场正在经历大幅价格飙升，包括天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，在美国供应紧张和全球需求走强的情况下，达到2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p><p><blockquote><b>阅读：</b>美国通货膨胀率处于30年来的最高水平</blockquote></p><p> <b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p><p><blockquote><b>所以：</b>美联储威廉姆斯预测2022年高通胀率将降至2%</blockquote></p><p> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上说：”看到供应链问题没有好转，事实上它们可能正在恶化，这令人沮丧。“在此期间，很难说影响会有多大，会持续多久。”</blockquote></p><p> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>使用美联储首选个人消费支出价格指数，美国通货膨胀率在截至 7 月份的 12 个月中以 4.2% 的速度上涨。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更广为人知的消费者价格指数，通货膨胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子普通商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储的其他人几个月来一直认为通胀飙升是 “暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔表示，预计美联储将于 11 月开始缩减规模，并于 2022 年中期结束缩减规模，并着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速行动，这将推高收益率，降低股市。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%，盘中小幅上涨。科技股充足的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote></p><p> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产调整定义为较近期峰值下跌至少 10%，但不超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，基准 10 年期国债 TETMUBMUSD10Y（1.504%）的收益率为 1.54%，高于周二的 1.534%，该收益率为 1.54%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，本季度迄今为止，该票据已上涨近 10 个基点，仅 9 月份就上涨了 23.7 个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProfessor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>道琼斯指数为 20,000 点的教授表示，他对可能引发股市调整的通胀趋势感到紧张</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告说，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前预期更快的速度加息，这可能会对股市基准进行调整。</blockquote></p><p> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p><p><blockquote>这位沃顿商学院教授在 2015 年将道琼斯指数预测为 20,000 点，他在周三接受 CNBC 采访时表示，他 “对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote></p><p> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示，美国一轮高通胀可能会持续到明年初，因为零部件和材料短缺可能会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p><p><blockquote>部分金融市场正在经历大幅价格飙升，包括天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，在美国供应紧张和全球需求走强的情况下，达到2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p><p><blockquote><b>阅读：</b>美国通货膨胀率处于30年来的最高水平</blockquote></p><p> <b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p><p><blockquote><b>所以：</b>美联储威廉姆斯预测2022年高通胀率将降至2%</blockquote></p><p> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上说：”看到供应链问题没有好转，事实上它们可能正在恶化，这令人沮丧。“在此期间，很难说影响会有多大，会持续多久。”</blockquote></p><p> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>使用美联储首选个人消费支出价格指数，美国通货膨胀率在截至 7 月份的 12 个月中以 4.2% 的速度上涨。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更广为人知的消费者价格指数，通货膨胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子普通商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储的其他人几个月来一直认为通胀飙升是 “暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔表示，预计美联储将于 11 月开始缩减规模，并于 2022 年中期结束缩减规模，并着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速行动，这将推高收益率，降低股市。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%，盘中小幅上涨。科技股充足的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote></p><p> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产调整定义为较近期峰值下跌至少 10%，但不超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，基准 10 年期国债 TETMUBMUSD10Y（1.504%）的收益率为 1.54%，高于周二的 1.534%，该收益率为 1.54%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，本季度迄今为止，该票据已上涨近 10 个基点，仅 9 月份就上涨了 23.7 个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124647688","content_text":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.\nThe Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000 in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”\nThe academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.\nParts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.\nRead:Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years\nAlso:Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022\n“It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”\nThe rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.\nPowell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”\nHowever, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.\nSiegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.\nA correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.\nMeanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808447062,"gmtCreate":1627608103756,"gmtModify":1631893656454,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808447062","repostId":"1105519179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":827138677,"gmtCreate":1634431664555,"gmtModify":1634434823196,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827138677","repostId":"1169383767","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169383767","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634311170,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169383767?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power's Lowered Guidance Lacking Detail, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师表示，Plug Power 下调的指导缺乏细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169383767","media":"TheStreet","summary":"'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of ","content":"<p>'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of $13 for the stock, compared to its recent quote of $32.08.</p><p><blockquote>Coker Palmer 分析师 Vaibhav Vaishnav 写道：“没有提供细节。”他对该股的目标价为 13 美元，而最近的报价为 32.08 美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Plug Power&nbsp;shares firmed Friday after the hydrogen technology company’s earnings guidance beat expectations, at least one analyst wanted something else: details.</p><p><blockquote>虽然普拉格能源的股价周五在这家氢技术公司的盈利指引超出预期后走强，但至少有一位分析师想要的是别的东西：细节。</blockquote></p><p> “Details were not provided,” Vaibhav Vaishnav of Coker Palmer Institutional wrote in a commentary. He sees tough sledding for Plug Power’s stock in the near term, with a price target of $13. He rates Plug Power a sector underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“Coker Palmer Institutional 的 Vaibhav Vaishnav 在一篇评论中写道：”没有提供细节。他认为普拉格能源的股价在短期内将面临艰难的下滑，目标价为 13 美元。他将普拉格能源评为表现不佳的行业。</blockquote></p><p> The stock recently traded at $32.13, up 1%.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近交易价格为 32.13 美元，上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Among the details Vaishnav sees as missing: Specifics on the company's $3 billion revenue estimate as well as investments needed to achieve its stated targets.</p><p><blockquote>Vaishnav 认为缺失的细节包括：该公司 30 亿美元收入估计的细节以及实现既定目标所需的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “The company spoke only about $1 billion in revenue from material handling and $700 million from hydrogen fuel,” Vaishnav said. “We assume the current four segments together total $1 billion, and $700 million is from third-party sales. PLUG also mentioned three gigawatt installed electrolyzers by 2025,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”该公司只谈到了大约 10 亿美元的物料搬运收入和 7 亿美元的氢燃料收入。“我们假设目前四个部门的总收入为 10 亿美元，其中 7 亿美元来自第三方销售。PLUG 还提到，到 2025 年，将安装 3 千兆瓦的电解槽，”这位分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, Plug Power is targeting 500 Temperature Programmed Desorption (TPD) plants and 1,000 TPD plants by 2025/'28 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，普拉格能源的目标是到2025/28年分别建成500座程序升温解吸(TPD)工厂和1000座TPD工厂。</blockquote></p><p> \"Each 20 TPD plant costs $100 million, implying $2 billion/$4 billion capex beyond the initial 100 TPD targeted by the end of 2022,\" Viashnav wrote. \"PLUG intends to build a GW factory in Korea and a 2 GW factory in Australia. The HYVIA production facility could cost $200 million.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 写道：“每个 20 TPD 工厂的成本为 1 亿美元，这意味着比到 2022 年底最初设定的 100 TPD 目标还要高出 20 亿美元/40 亿美元的资本支出。”“PLUG 打算在韩国建设一座 GW 工厂，在澳大利亚建设一座 2 GW 工厂。HYVIA 生产设施可能耗资 2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Also lacking additional detail, according to Viashnav: the company's estimates on how much it can make on hydrogen sales.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 表示，还缺乏更多细节：该公司对氢销售收入的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “The average purchase price for hydrogen from third parties, the amount of hydrogen lost in storage/transfer and the selling price to internal customers,\" Vaishnav said.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”从第三方购买氢气的平均价格、储存/转移过程中的氢气损失量以及向内部客户出售的价格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The company estimates it can generate 30% gross margins at $6/kilogram, which makes sense to us. But we look for clarity on translation from the $6/kg selling price to an effective price realized of $4/Kg in 2019/’20/1H ‘21.”</p><p><blockquote>“该公司估计，每公斤 6 美元可实现 30% 的毛利率，这对我们来说很有意义。但我们希望明确如何将 6 美元/公斤的售价转换为 2019/20/1 上半年 21 年实现的 4 美元/公斤的有效价格。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power's Lowered Guidance Lacking Detail, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师表示，Plug Power 下调的指导缺乏细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power's Lowered Guidance Lacking Detail, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师表示，Plug Power 下调的指导缺乏细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 23:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of $13 for the stock, compared to its recent quote of $32.08.</p><p><blockquote>Coker Palmer 分析师 Vaibhav Vaishnav 写道：“没有提供细节。”他对该股的目标价为 13 美元，而最近的报价为 32.08 美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Plug Power&nbsp;shares firmed Friday after the hydrogen technology company’s earnings guidance beat expectations, at least one analyst wanted something else: details.</p><p><blockquote>虽然普拉格能源的股价周五在这家氢技术公司的盈利指引超出预期后走强，但至少有一位分析师想要的是别的东西：细节。</blockquote></p><p> “Details were not provided,” Vaibhav Vaishnav of Coker Palmer Institutional wrote in a commentary. He sees tough sledding for Plug Power’s stock in the near term, with a price target of $13. He rates Plug Power a sector underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“Coker Palmer Institutional 的 Vaibhav Vaishnav 在一篇评论中写道：”没有提供细节。他认为普拉格能源的股价在短期内将面临艰难的下滑，目标价为 13 美元。他将普拉格能源评为表现不佳的行业。</blockquote></p><p> The stock recently traded at $32.13, up 1%.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近交易价格为 32.13 美元，上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Among the details Vaishnav sees as missing: Specifics on the company's $3 billion revenue estimate as well as investments needed to achieve its stated targets.</p><p><blockquote>Vaishnav 认为缺失的细节包括：该公司 30 亿美元收入估计的细节以及实现既定目标所需的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “The company spoke only about $1 billion in revenue from material handling and $700 million from hydrogen fuel,” Vaishnav said. “We assume the current four segments together total $1 billion, and $700 million is from third-party sales. PLUG also mentioned three gigawatt installed electrolyzers by 2025,\" the analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”该公司只谈到了大约 10 亿美元的物料搬运收入和 7 亿美元的氢燃料收入。“我们假设目前四个部门的总收入为 10 亿美元，其中 7 亿美元来自第三方销售。PLUG 还提到，到 2025 年，将安装 3 千兆瓦的电解槽，”这位分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, Plug Power is targeting 500 Temperature Programmed Desorption (TPD) plants and 1,000 TPD plants by 2025/'28 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，普拉格能源的目标是到2025/28年分别建成500座程序升温解吸(TPD)工厂和1000座TPD工厂。</blockquote></p><p> \"Each 20 TPD plant costs $100 million, implying $2 billion/$4 billion capex beyond the initial 100 TPD targeted by the end of 2022,\" Viashnav wrote. \"PLUG intends to build a GW factory in Korea and a 2 GW factory in Australia. The HYVIA production facility could cost $200 million.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 写道：“每个 20 TPD 工厂的成本为 1 亿美元，这意味着比到 2022 年底最初设定的 100 TPD 目标还要高出 20 亿美元/40 亿美元的资本支出。”“PLUG 打算在韩国建设一座 GW 工厂，在澳大利亚建设一座 2 GW 工厂。HYVIA 生产设施可能耗资 2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Also lacking additional detail, according to Viashnav: the company's estimates on how much it can make on hydrogen sales.</p><p><blockquote>Viashnav 表示，还缺乏更多细节：该公司对氢销售收入的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “The average purchase price for hydrogen from third parties, the amount of hydrogen lost in storage/transfer and the selling price to internal customers,\" Vaishnav said.</p><p><blockquote>“Vaishnav 说：”从第三方购买氢气的平均价格、储存/转移过程中的氢气损失量以及向内部客户出售的价格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The company estimates it can generate 30% gross margins at $6/kilogram, which makes sense to us. But we look for clarity on translation from the $6/kg selling price to an effective price realized of $4/Kg in 2019/’20/1H ‘21.”</p><p><blockquote>“该公司估计，每公斤 6 美元可实现 30% 的毛利率，这对我们来说很有意义。但我们希望明确如何将 6 美元/公斤的售价转换为 2019/20/1 上半年 21 年实现的 4 美元/公斤的有效价格。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/coker-palmer-lack-of-detail-plug-power\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/coker-palmer-lack-of-detail-plug-power","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169383767","content_text":"'Details were not provided,' Coker Palmer analyst Vaibhav Vaishnav writes. He has a price target of $13 for the stock, compared to its recent quote of $32.08.\nWhile Plug Power shares firmed Friday after the hydrogen technology company’s earnings guidance beat expectations, at least one analyst wanted something else: details.\n“Details were not provided,” Vaibhav Vaishnav of Coker Palmer Institutional wrote in a commentary. He sees tough sledding for Plug Power’s stock in the near term, with a price target of $13. He rates Plug Power a sector underperform.\nThe stock recently traded at $32.13, up 1%.\nAmong the details Vaishnav sees as missing: Specifics on the company's $3 billion revenue estimate as well as investments needed to achieve its stated targets.\n“The company spoke only about $1 billion in revenue from material handling and $700 million from hydrogen fuel,” Vaishnav said. “We assume the current four segments together total $1 billion, and $700 million is from third-party sales. PLUG also mentioned three gigawatt installed electrolyzers by 2025,\" the analyst wrote.\nWhat's more, Plug Power is targeting 500 Temperature Programmed Desorption (TPD) plants and 1,000 TPD plants by 2025/'28 respectively.\n\"Each 20 TPD plant costs $100 million, implying $2 billion/$4 billion capex beyond the initial 100 TPD targeted by the end of 2022,\" Viashnav wrote. \"PLUG intends to build a GW factory in Korea and a 2 GW factory in Australia. The HYVIA production facility could cost $200 million.\nAlso lacking additional detail, according to Viashnav: the company's estimates on how much it can make on hydrogen sales.\n“The average purchase price for hydrogen from third parties, the amount of hydrogen lost in storage/transfer and the selling price to internal customers,\" Vaishnav said.\n\"The company estimates it can generate 30% gross margins at $6/kilogram, which makes sense to us. But we look for clarity on translation from the $6/kg selling price to an effective price realized of $4/Kg in 2019/’20/1H ‘21.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822190110,"gmtCreate":1634098166054,"gmtModify":1634099001883,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822190110","repostId":"1198930462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 21:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891626996,"gmtCreate":1628387822915,"gmtModify":1631893656355,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891626996","repostId":"1119792130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144739452,"gmtCreate":1626313572376,"gmtModify":1633927971769,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144739452","repostId":"1140308728","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146391666,"gmtCreate":1626052555655,"gmtModify":1633930647923,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts&nbsp;","listText":"Sweet nuts&nbsp;","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146391666","repostId":"1172063633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896629228,"gmtCreate":1628579610964,"gmtModify":1631893656344,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896629228","repostId":"1127196790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802391377,"gmtCreate":1627714788399,"gmtModify":1631893656417,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802391377","repostId":"1177914270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177914270","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627650457,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177914270?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>英伟达股价在盘前交易中暴跌 3.2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177914270","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading.China antitrust officials delay review of Nvidia’s $40 Billion Arm Acquisition,according to&nbsp;The Information.","content":"<p>Nvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading.China antitrust officials delay review of Nvidia’s $40 Billion Arm Acquisition,according to&nbsp;The Information.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价在盘前交易中暴跌 3.2%。信息显示，中国反垄断官员推迟了对英伟达400亿美元收购Arm交易的审查。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb434863abbc50b64c8e9d4079a2b06\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/395304fa3e2a4eb8436058c29da9628c\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>英伟达股价在盘前交易中暴跌 3.2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>英伟达股价在盘前交易中暴跌 3.2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-30 21:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading.China antitrust officials delay review of Nvidia’s $40 Billion Arm Acquisition,according to&nbsp;The Information.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价在盘前交易中暴跌 3.2%。信息显示，中国反垄断官员推迟了对英伟达400亿美元收购Arm交易的审查。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb434863abbc50b64c8e9d4079a2b06\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/395304fa3e2a4eb8436058c29da9628c\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177914270","content_text":"Nvidia shares dived 3.2% in premarket trading.China antitrust officials delay review of Nvidia’s $40 Billion Arm Acquisition,according to The Information.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802391098,"gmtCreate":1627714741614,"gmtModify":1631893656441,"author":{"id":"3582428558829452","authorId":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorIdStr":"3582428558829452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sweet nuts","listText":"Sweet nuts","text":"Sweet nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802391098","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 的利润率增长是由终端市场不断增长的实力推动的。</li><li>AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引上调了 $1.0B，毛利率接近 50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年也可能成为价值 60 亿美元的自由现金流业务。</li><li>AMD 的美元销售额增长比 Nvidia 便宜，而且 AMD 甚至可能增长得更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD (AMD) 昨天引起了轰动，这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD 的收入加速增长和毛利率的强劲扩张为该股上涨提供了有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 AMD 值 120 美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在深入探讨 AMD 的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上一季度的业绩指引。AMD 预计 21 年第二季度的收入至少为 35 亿美元，“高情况 ”指导意味着收入环比增长 7%，毛利率为 47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计 AMD 的收入将达到指导的上限（37 亿美元），最低自由现金流为 8.95 亿美元（环比增长 8%），自由现金流利润率为 24%。鉴于高价 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器和 GPU 的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/平均售价上涨，我预计 AMD 将超出自己的利润率指导，在 21 年第二季度的毛利率为 48%。我还预测，由于 CPU 和 GPU 平均售价的强劲，AMD 的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD: 年自由现金流迈向 50 亿美元》一书中详细阐述了我对 AMD 21 年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>从 AMD 的实际业绩来看，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21 年第二季度收入为 38.5 亿美元，比高端指引高出 1.5 亿美元，环比增长 12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增长以及平均售价的增强，图形/计算收入环比增长 7%，达到 22.5 亿美元。Enterprise 已成为 AMD 近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21 年第二季度的收入为 16 亿美元，环比增长 19%。继 AMD 在 21 年第一季度实现 5% 的环比收入增长后，21 年第二季度企业收入继续加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>不过，AMD 21 年第二季度财报中最有趣的发现是毛利率的趋势。AMD 的毛利率跃升 4 个百分点，达到 48%，比指导高出 1 个百分点，原因是价格较高的 Ryzen 处理器（移动和台式机）和 Radeon 显卡的更好组合。21 年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着 AMD 连续第三个季度利润率扩张，我认为 AMD 还没有看到这一趋势的终结。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告的经营活动现金流为 9.52 亿美元，自由现金流为 8.88 亿美元，比我的预期少了 700 万美元，但仍几乎是一年前的六倍。随着 AMD 在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信到明年年底，AMD 的自由现金流利润率可能会增长到 30%。AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）上调了 $1.0B，这意味着我也在更新今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 预计今年的收入为 15.6B 美元。假设自由现金流利润率稳定在 23-24%，AMD 预计自由现金流为 $3.6B 至 $3.7B。明年的收入预测尚未更新，但 AMD 在 2022 财年的收入至少应为 200 亿美元（假设同比增长 25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流将达到 46 亿至 48 亿美元.这些预测并没有考虑到 AMD 第三代 EPYC Milan 服务器处理器和价格更高的 GPU 可能会提高 AMD 的自由现金流利润率。明年 30% 的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为 $6.0B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD 的收入指引为 4.1B 美元 +/- 1 亿美元，该公司更新了 2021 财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD 目前预计 2021 财年收入增长 60%（之前为 50%），毛利率为 48%（之前为 47%）。假设收入增长 60%，AMD 目前的全年收入为 156 亿美元（之前为 146 亿美元），因此 AMD 的新指导评级为 10 亿美元的额外收入，而到目前为止，这些收入还没有计入 AMD 的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票的估值创造了强大的动力。由于 AMD 股价最近下跌，以及 10 亿美元收入的增加，AMD 的美元销售额增长在财报公布后变得更加便宜。AMD 的美元销售额增长率低于 Nvidia，而且 AMD 的增长速度可能会更快： AMD 的收入指导评级为同比增长 60%，而对 Nvidia 的预测则意味着 2021 财年的收入 “仅 ”同比增长 49%。AMD 的市值与收益比为 42.5，对于一家收入增长 60%、毛利率接近 50% 的公司来说，这个比率很低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>根据 2022 财年每股收益 17.29 美元计算，英伟达的市盈率为 44.5。如果 AMD 的盈利增长（2022 财年每股收益为 2.71 美元）与 Nvidia 的估值相同，AMD 的公允价格将为 120 美元（2.71 美元 x 44.5 盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为 17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD 今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这也是我相信 AMD 可以进行更高估值的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长 3-4 个百分点。如果 AMD 的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至 40%，AMD 的股票回报率可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对 AMD 的看法，并使我 120 美元的股价目标处于危险之中。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU 和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着 AMD 的终端市场疲软。终端市场疲软意味着 AMD 的收入增长将放缓，这可能导致 AMD 利润估值的盈利乘数系数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场可能随时不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD 上调的指引和环比收入加速表明 CPU 和 GPU 的终端市场比预期强劲得多。这可能会导致 AMD 的收入再次加速增长，并在平均售价上升的支撑下，继续扩大到 50%。AMD 的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 的利润率增长是由终端市场不断增长的实力推动的。</li><li>AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引上调了 $1.0B，毛利率接近 50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年也可能成为价值 60 亿美元的自由现金流业务。</li><li>AMD 的美元销售额增长比 Nvidia 便宜，而且 AMD 甚至可能增长得更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD (AMD) 昨天引起了轰动，这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD 的收入加速增长和毛利率的强劲扩张为该股上涨提供了有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 AMD 值 120 美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在深入探讨 AMD 的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上一季度的业绩指引。AMD 预计 21 年第二季度的收入至少为 35 亿美元，“高情况 ”指导意味着收入环比增长 7%，毛利率为 47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计 AMD 的收入将达到指导的上限（37 亿美元），最低自由现金流为 8.95 亿美元（环比增长 8%），自由现金流利润率为 24%。鉴于高价 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器和 GPU 的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/平均售价上涨，我预计 AMD 将超出自己的利润率指导，在 21 年第二季度的毛利率为 48%。我还预测，由于 CPU 和 GPU 平均售价的强劲，AMD 的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD: 年自由现金流迈向 50 亿美元》一书中详细阐述了我对 AMD 21 年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>从 AMD 的实际业绩来看，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21 年第二季度收入为 38.5 亿美元，比高端指引高出 1.5 亿美元，环比增长 12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增长以及平均售价的增强，图形/计算收入环比增长 7%，达到 22.5 亿美元。Enterprise 已成为 AMD 近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21 年第二季度的收入为 16 亿美元，环比增长 19%。继 AMD 在 21 年第一季度实现 5% 的环比收入增长后，21 年第二季度企业收入继续加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>不过，AMD 21 年第二季度财报中最有趣的发现是毛利率的趋势。AMD 的毛利率跃升 4 个百分点，达到 48%，比指导高出 1 个百分点，原因是价格较高的 Ryzen 处理器（移动和台式机）和 Radeon 显卡的更好组合。21 年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着 AMD 连续第三个季度利润率扩张，我认为 AMD 还没有看到这一趋势的终结。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告的经营活动现金流为 9.52 亿美元，自由现金流为 8.88 亿美元，比我的预期少了 700 万美元，但仍几乎是一年前的六倍。随着 AMD 在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信到明年年底，AMD 的自由现金流利润率可能会增长到 30%。AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）上调了 $1.0B，这意味着我也在更新今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 预计今年的收入为 15.6B 美元。假设自由现金流利润率稳定在 23-24%，AMD 预计自由现金流为 $3.6B 至 $3.7B。明年的收入预测尚未更新，但 AMD 在 2022 财年的收入至少应为 200 亿美元（假设同比增长 25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流将达到 46 亿至 48 亿美元.这些预测并没有考虑到 AMD 第三代 EPYC Milan 服务器处理器和价格更高的 GPU 可能会提高 AMD 的自由现金流利润率。明年 30% 的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为 $6.0B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD 的收入指引为 4.1B 美元 +/- 1 亿美元，该公司更新了 2021 财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD 目前预计 2021 财年收入增长 60%（之前为 50%），毛利率为 48%（之前为 47%）。假设收入增长 60%，AMD 目前的全年收入为 156 亿美元（之前为 146 亿美元），因此 AMD 的新指导评级为 10 亿美元的额外收入，而到目前为止，这些收入还没有计入 AMD 的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票的估值创造了强大的动力。由于 AMD 股价最近下跌，以及 10 亿美元收入的增加，AMD 的美元销售额增长在财报公布后变得更加便宜。AMD 的美元销售额增长率低于 Nvidia，而且 AMD 的增长速度可能会更快： AMD 的收入指导评级为同比增长 60%，而对 Nvidia 的预测则意味着 2021 财年的收入 “仅 ”同比增长 49%。AMD 的市值与收益比为 42.5，对于一家收入增长 60%、毛利率接近 50% 的公司来说，这个比率很低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>根据 2022 财年每股收益 17.29 美元计算，英伟达的市盈率为 44.5。如果 AMD 的盈利增长（2022 财年每股收益为 2.71 美元）与 Nvidia 的估值相同，AMD 的公允价格将为 120 美元（2.71 美元 x 44.5 盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为 17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD 今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这也是我相信 AMD 可以进行更高估值的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长 3-4 个百分点。如果 AMD 的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至 40%，AMD 的股票回报率可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对 AMD 的看法，并使我 120 美元的股价目标处于危险之中。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU 和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着 AMD 的终端市场疲软。终端市场疲软意味着 AMD 的收入增长将放缓，这可能导致 AMD 利润估值的盈利乘数系数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场可能随时不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD 上调的指引和环比收入加速表明 CPU 和 GPU 的终端市场比预期强劲得多。这可能会导致 AMD 的收入再次加速增长，并在平均售价上升的支撑下，继续扩大到 50%。AMD 的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}