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2021-12-19

多谢分享

创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场

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11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109268210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出。","content":"<p>作者：韩旭阳</p>\n<p>在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。</p>\n<p>部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。</p>\n<p>债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出</p>\n<p>数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。</p>\n<p>根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据，上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入，达到36亿美元；同时，IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出，达到64亿美元；HY&amp;EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出，达到29亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972878dfd3eaffb1b73c951adcd4659e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据还显示，全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元，但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元，较前一周增加39%。</p>\n<p><b>股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。</b></p>\n<p>尽管在前几周，受万亿刺激措施的推动，大量资金进入了股票基金，规模达到了前所未有的高峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95cd302e00ba93302ae605efc519da90\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>但随着股市进入长期动荡时期，并伴随着剧烈的下跌，美联储再次启动了加息周期，使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。</b></p>\n<p>数据显示，在上一周，全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元，而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出，流出规模达到260亿美元，这是一个明显的信号，表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117ccb3f28de1456b8cea95cf60d92b7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在细分板块中，科技资金流入19.1亿美元，而前一周则为净流出；自今年2月以来，科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来，消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。</p>\n<p>医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元，但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。</p>\n<p>高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现，由于对美国专用产品的需求激增，在截至12月15日的一周内，所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。</p>\n<p>不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值，新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快，而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0773d0c7a313bc222c7df83b7e233b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示，新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元，为2020年3月25日以来最大，而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。</p>\n<p>货币市场基金也出现了净流出：在连续八周净流入后，全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元；但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89144ff44308afe14c6d7dacfb73a54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0b5d9eb8e83b71ccc21a13623d7322\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在商品基金中，贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元，为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出，此前出现连续两周的净流入。</p>\n<p>货币政策转向</p>\n<p>这是在通胀压力下，市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。</p>\n<p>最新数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>美东时间12月15日周三，美联储在政策会议后宣布，将加快Taper的速度，每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），并暗示明年将加息三次。</p>\n<p>与此同时，欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐，宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。</p>\n<p>而在通胀压力下，英国央行选择升息，将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%，同时维持购债规模不变。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-19 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f61931a0d39e3cccfd6e5e3b0ef5e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109268210","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。\n根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据，上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入，达到36亿美元；同时，IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出，达到64亿美元；HY&EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出，达到29亿美元。\n\n数据还显示，全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元，但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元，较前一周增加39%。\n股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。\n尽管在前几周，受万亿刺激措施的推动，大量资金进入了股票基金，规模达到了前所未有的高峰。\n\n但随着股市进入长期动荡时期，并伴随着剧烈的下跌，美联储再次启动了加息周期，使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。\n数据显示，在上一周，全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元，而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。\n最重要的是，上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出，流出规模达到260亿美元，这是一个明显的信号，表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。\n\n在细分板块中，科技资金流入19.1亿美元，而前一周则为净流出；自今年2月以来，科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来，消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。\n医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元，但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。\n高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现，由于对美国专用产品的需求激增，在截至12月15日的一周内，所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。\n不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值，新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快，而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。\n\n路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示，新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元，为2020年3月25日以来最大，而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。\n货币市场基金也出现了净流出：在连续八周净流入后，全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元；但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。\n\n\n在商品基金中，贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元，为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出，此前出现连续两周的净流入。\n货币政策转向\n这是在通胀压力下，市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。\n最新数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最高水平。\n美东时间12月15日周三，美联储在政策会议后宣布，将加快Taper的速度，每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），并暗示明年将加息三次。\n与此同时，欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐，宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。\n而在通胀压力下，英国央行选择升息，将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%，同时维持购债规模不变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699867283,"gmtCreate":1639782916514,"gmtModify":1639782916935,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699867283","repostId":"2192597888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2192597888","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639746069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2192597888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 21:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2192597888","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bb37445a1cdae8f50952b817bd784c3\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，<b>美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。</b></p>\n<p>在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模，实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息，但里德认为加息时间在6月，并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的数据显示，在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中，从宣布加息当天开始计算，经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现，其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。</p>\n<p>以史为鉴，本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中，经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现，也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。</p>\n<p>从美债收益率曲线来看，首次加息过后，美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平，在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的，鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点，2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6ce8bdb3b5842534a919795f00719b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>根据上图，平均来说，经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生，由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。</p>\n<p>在新冠疫情爆发之前，经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生，以此最快速度推测，经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。</p>\n<p>尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的，但也提供了一个大致的框架。</p>\n<p>众所周知，每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为，在此次周期中，美联储已经落后于市场，导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>20世纪60年代中期，美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策，将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末，但最终通胀在1970年失控，随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。</p>\n<p>就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。</p>\n<p>历史表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设，衰退不可避免，但也有望更早结束。</p>\n<p>德意志央行的最新市场调查显示，64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生；31%的受访者认为是2024年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aecdec87eec04e9b590c674ed64271a\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见，交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期，<b>这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年，表明在此期间的某个时间点，美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f0667f911532e2a56e514a89752e3b\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 21:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。\n\n那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？德意志银行的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Reid）表示，美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模，实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息，但里德认为加息时间在6月，并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。\n德意志银行的数据显示，在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中，从宣布加息当天开始计算，经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现，其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。\n以史为鉴，本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中，经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现，也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。\n从美债收益率曲线来看，首次加息过后，美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平，在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的，鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点，2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。\n\n根据上图，平均来说，经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生，由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。\n在新冠疫情爆发之前，经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生，以此最快速度推测，经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。\n尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的，但也提供了一个大致的框架。\n众所周知，每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为，在此次周期中，美联储已经落后于市场，导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。\n20世纪60年代中期，美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策，将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末，但最终通胀在1970年失控，随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。\n就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。\n历史表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设，衰退不可避免，但也有望更早结束。\n德意志央行的最新市场调查显示，64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生；31%的受访者认为是2024年。\n\n市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见，交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期，这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年，表明在此期间的某个时间点，美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699020673,"gmtCreate":1639725049060,"gmtModify":1639725049258,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876507543","repostId":"1120958755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120958755","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637324307,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120958755?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 20:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120958755","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。","content":"<p>11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 20:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120958755","content_text":"11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。\n奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。\n而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。\n目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。\n\n【中概股】\n阿里巴巴盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。\n京东盘前涨1.59%，网易盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。\n新氧盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。\n1药网盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。\n部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。哔哩哔哩涨1.33%，腾讯音乐涨1.05%，贝壳涨2.33%。\n房多多大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。\n【重要美股】\n“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，Rivian Automotive Inc涨超3%，Lucid Group Inc跌超1%。而老“王者”特斯拉盘前微涨0.57%。\n美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，奥罗拉大麻公司涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。\nModerna盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。\nPalo Alto Networks盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。\n在线奢侈品零售商Farfetch Ltd盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。\n\n国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159458,"gmtCreate":1637040040582,"gmtModify":1637040040688,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159458","repostId":"1139856601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159634,"gmtCreate":1637039982459,"gmtModify":1637039982528,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159634","repostId":"2183079091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873479255,"gmtCreate":1636982312323,"gmtModify":1636982786804,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf706efaa37b62838da76a082dd67c8","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873479255","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873071005,"gmtCreate":1636813889947,"gmtModify":1636813890052,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"阅[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"阅[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873071005","repostId":"1119009229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879676258,"gmtCreate":1636724496711,"gmtModify":1636724496805,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通货膨胀 [回头]&nbsp;","listText":"通货膨胀 [回头]&nbsp;","text":"通货膨胀 [回头]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879676258","repostId":"2182093443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2182093443","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1636697812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2182093443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 14:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182093443","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"萨默斯表示，当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，这会使美国经济回归长期停滞状态，通货膨胀上行风险加大。","content":"<p>11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，<b>对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。</b></p>\n<p>在演讲中，萨默斯表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，使得从市场价格反映的情况看，经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是，日本化。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现，这会导致货币政策的失灵。</b>这一词语经常被经济学家拿来<b>描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩</b>的情况，通常伴随着<b>高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施（包括量化宽松）</b>等表现。</p>\n<p>此前，在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中，萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满，对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策，忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战，如气候变化等。这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>的官员们拒绝采取措施，先发制人地对通胀进行管理，他们只知道等待，什么事情也不做，眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n</blockquote>\n<h2>萨默斯的警告</h2>\n<p>早在2013年，萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在金融危机的几年后，我得出了一个结论，工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n</blockquote>\n<p>同时，他解释道：<b>这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀</b>，<b>而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。</b></p>\n<p>萨默斯称，2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加，利率大幅下降，资产价格远高于预期，然而增长却远低于预期。</p>\n<p>同时，<b>他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险</b>：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便，也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据，极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>（华尔街见闻注：极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负，会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。）</p>\n<h2>美联储不作为，通胀过高引发众大佬抨击</h2>\n<p>从美联储的职责来看，<b>其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右，然而，今年美国通胀居高不下</b>。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前提及，10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%，创31年以来新高；另一边，于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数，在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%，也位于近30年最高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34993af32ad8d03aa4f35d42235d9468\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此前，美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”，随后，由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解，美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。</p>\n<p>对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为，众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。</p>\n<p>11月11日，<b>桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟</b>，在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称：投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为，资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕，他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被（通胀）所侵蚀。他认为，认为，本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单，就是源于政府印钱。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱，2) 人们得到了更多的钱，3) 产生了更多的购买，从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>此前，<b>亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic</b> 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满，他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>绿光基金创始人 <b>David Einhorn</b> 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是：鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此，在10月20日，他猛烈地抨击到：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为，他不仅没有努力对抗通胀，相反，他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”\n</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-12 14:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中，萨默斯表示：\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182093443","content_text":"11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中，萨默斯表示：\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，使得从市场价格反映的情况看，经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是，日本化。”\n\n“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现，这会导致货币政策的失灵。这一词语经常被经济学家拿来描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩的情况，通常伴随着高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施（包括量化宽松）等表现。\n此前，在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中，萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满，对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策，忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示：\n\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战，如气候变化等。这些中央银行的官员们拒绝采取措施，先发制人地对通胀进行管理，他们只知道等待，什么事情也不做，眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n\n萨默斯的警告\n早在2013年，萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示：\n\n “在金融危机的几年后，我得出了一个结论，工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n\n同时，他解释道：这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀，而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。\n萨默斯称，2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加，利率大幅下降，资产价格远高于预期，然而增长却远低于预期。\n同时，他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险：\n\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便，也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据，极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n\n（华尔街见闻注：极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负，会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。）\n美联储不作为，通胀过高引发众大佬抨击\n从美联储的职责来看，其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右，然而，今年美国通胀居高不下。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%，创31年以来新高；另一边，于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数，在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%，也位于近30年最高位。\n\n此前，美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”，随后，由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解，美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。\n对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为，众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。\n11月11日，桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟，在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称：投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为，资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕，他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被（通胀）所侵蚀。他认为，认为，本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单，就是源于政府印钱。\n\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱，2) 人们得到了更多的钱，3) 产生了更多的购买，从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n\n此前，亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满，他表示：\n\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n\n绿光基金创始人 David Einhorn 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是：鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此，在10月20日，他猛烈地抨击到：\n\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为，他不仅没有努力对抗通胀，相反，他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879145971,"gmtCreate":1636695575429,"gmtModify":1636695620364,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f77744aae122c499bda340615d230e6","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879145971","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870533214,"gmtCreate":1636631424532,"gmtModify":1636631692058,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>For coin [微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>For coin [微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$For coin [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8530027880ac7c179ad8b97e703d9768","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870533214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870539754,"gmtCreate":1636631319801,"gmtModify":1636631319995,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ea4e951f8a8d9a3fe5b85a4f0abf9a","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844598362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816589707,"gmtCreate":1630507218609,"gmtModify":1631889990519,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No wonder&nbsp;","listText":"No wonder&nbsp;","text":"No wonder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816589707","repostId":"1166477679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166477679","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630506475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166477679?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166477679","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electr","content":"<p>Investors in&nbsp;Lucid&nbsp;are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.2% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was flat..</p>\n<p>Life can be tough for investors in&nbsp;these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with&nbsp;corporate fundamentals.</p>\n<p>The issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Lucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.</p>\n<p>The quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by&nbsp;BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management &amp; Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.</p>\n<p>PIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.</p>\n<p>Anytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.</p>\n<p>None of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.</p>\n<p>Coming into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&amp;P has gained about 8% over the same span.</p>\n<p>Other EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from&nbsp;General Motors(GM) regarding its&nbsp;second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.</p>\n<p>Lucid plans to&nbsp;start making&nbsp;and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 22:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1166477679","content_text":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat..\nLife can be tough for investors in these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals.\nThe issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.\nLucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.\nThe quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management & Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.\nPIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.\nAnytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.\nNone of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.\nComing into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&P has gained about 8% over the same span.\nOther EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from General Motors(GM) regarding its second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.\nLucid plans to start making and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164614346,"gmtCreate":1624200279685,"gmtModify":1634009555577,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164614346","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133032715,"gmtCreate":1621666626337,"gmtModify":1634187247212,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133032715","repostId":"1108503848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108503848","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621588268,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108503848?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Winning Stocks and 5 Losing Stocks to Watch Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108503848","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years\nSource: Shutt","content":"<p>Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1b96841fd1fab78d26e207f9b18338\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\"><span>Source: Shutterstock</span></p>\n<p>Around this time last year, I wrote up a gallery of stocks to watch that had caught investor interest over a week’s worth of trading. In that example, the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>had gained 3.5% over the previous five days of trading.</p>\n<p>As a result, out of my 10 stocks to watch,seven were burning up the track&nbsp;while three were lagging the index.</p>\n<p>Now that we’re in 2021, I thought I would do the same thing.</p>\n<p>Only this time, I’ll find five winners and losers from the past five days of trading who’ve either outperformed or underperformed the index. For this article, I’ll use May 12 through May 18 (five days and a weekend) and limit the companies to stocks with market capitalizations of $10 billion or higher.</p>\n<p>If you’re wondering, the 10 stocks to watch from my article (both good and bad weekly performances) had lights-out returns over the past year.</p>\n<p>Between May 12 and May 18, the S&amp;P 500 had a total return of -0.6%. Based on that, here are my five winning stocks and five losing stocks to watch right now.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>NortonLifeLock</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NLOK</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Occidental Petroleum</b>(NYSE:<b><u>OXY</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Ulta Beauty</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>ULTA</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Royal Caribbean</b>(NYSE:<b><u>RCL</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Hershey</b>(NYSE:<b><u>HSY</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>AT&amp;T</b>(NYSE:<b><u>T</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Lennar</b>(NYSE:<b><u>LEN</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Chipotle Mexican Grill</b>(NYSE:<b><u>CMG</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>MSCI</b>(NYSE:<b><u>MSCI</u></b>)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>NortonLifeLock (NLOK)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>13.5%</p>\n<p>The cybersecurity software and services company got a nice boost on May 12 when BofA analyst Tal Liani upgraded NLOK stock to “buy” from “underperform.” More importantly, the analyst increased its target price by 58%, from&nbsp;$19 to $30. Currently trading below the target, it’s possible future quarterly results could push that higher.</p>\n<p>Liani believes that the consumer market, NortonLifeLock’s bread and butter, provides it with a long runway of growth. The company itself expects 2022 revenue growth of at least 8% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, which would be 60% higher year-over-year.</p>\n<p>“Management believes the consumer cybersecurity market is heavily underpenetrated, which leaves room for growing the subscriber base as well,” Liani wrote.“Lastly, international expansion is another key element, with international sales accounting for 30% of revenues, and management outlined a country-by-country strategy to address the remaining potential.”</p>\n<p>NortonLifeLock’s been on a strong run the past five years with an annualized total return of 18.8%. But it looks as though the next five could be equally rewarding for shareholders.</p>\n<p><b>Occidental Petroleum (OXY)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>5.6%</p>\n<p><i>Investor’s Business Daily</i>&nbsp;commented in early May that the Occidental corporate jet was&nbsp;spotted in Omaha&nbsp;days before Warren Buffett invested&nbsp;$10 billion&nbsp;in the oil company in 2019.</p>\n<p>At times in the past couple of years, I’m sure Buffett would have preferred the jet go almost anywhere else except Omaha, as the price of oil tanked. As part of his $10 billion preferred-share investment, Buffett got&nbsp;83.86 million warrants&nbsp;to buy OXY stock at $59.62.</p>\n<p>Starting in 2029, Occidental can redeem the 8% preferreds at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus any unpaid dividends. The dividends Buffett was paid in 2020 were made in Oxy stock. The Oracle of Omaha&nbsp;sold those shares&nbsp;in August 2020.</p>\n<p>Thanks to a rebound in oil prices, Occidental’s got a total return of almost 72% over the past year, significantly higher than the U.S. markets as a whole. However, as I write this, OXY stock is still trading at less than half Buffett’s exercise price.</p>\n<p>He’s got until one year after Occidental were to redeem its preferred shares. That means at least another nine years to move into the money.</p>\n<p><b>Ulta Beauty (ULTA)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>4.7%</p>\n<p>The specialty retailer of cosmetics, skin and hair care products, fragrances, and a provider of beauty salon services, reports its&nbsp;Q1 2021 results&nbsp;on May 27. The 27 analysts who cover ULTA estimate&nbsp;$1.90 per share&nbsp;on the bottom line and $1.63 billion in sales on the top line. Both will be marked improvements from a year ago when Covid-19 stay-at-home orders were kicking in.</p>\n<p>In mid-May, JPMorgan analysts named Ulta to its list of&nbsp;favorite retail stocks. The bank gives ULTA an overweight rating and has it on its Analyst Focus List. Interestingly,<b>Target</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TGT</u></b>) is also a favorite of JPM due to its inventory control and overall strength during the important back-to-school season.</p>\n<p>In November, Ulta announced that it would open&nbsp;1,000-square-foot shops&nbsp;within Target. They will be staffed by the discount retailer with training from Ulta.</p>\n<p>Both Ulta CEO Mary Dillon and Target CEO Brian Cornell believe the arrangement will help drive traffic to both stores. Two of the best CEOs in retail, this partnership is sure to be a success, making ULTA one of our stocks to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Royal Caribbean (RCL)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>4.6%</p>\n<p>It wasn’t just Royal Caribbean that had a good five days of trading. All of the cruise operators did.<b>Carnival</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>CCL</u></b>) and&nbsp;<b>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>NCLH</u></b>) were up 8.2% and 5.7%, respectively. I happen to prefer RCL over the other two.</p>\n<p>The cruise operator got&nbsp;excellent news&nbsp;in late April when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention clarified its position on cruise ships setting sail from American ports of call this summer. Royal Caribbean figures it can restart its U.S. cruise departures in mid-July.</p>\n<p>Considering it lost&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;in its latest quarter, the news couldn’t have come at a better time. Plus, its balance sheet is currently bolstered by more than $5 billion in cash. As cruise-goers appear to be ready to spend more on cruises than in past years, they should be able to get back to pre-Covid revenues by the end of 2022, perhaps earlier.</p>\n<p>In 2020, while RCL was getting pummeled, I continued to say it was&nbsp;a long-term winner. Up almost double in the past year, RCL should top $100 before the end of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Hershey (HSY)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>2.3%</p>\n<p>I know what you’re thinking. When considering stocks to watch, why include a company that gained a measly 2.3% over the past five days? Especially when there were 46 stocks ($10 billion market cap or higher) with a better return?</p>\n<p>Simple. I like the job CEO Michele Buck has done since&nbsp;taking the top job&nbsp;in March 2017. It’s why I included Hershey on my October 2020&nbsp;list of companies&nbsp;with top-notch women CEOs. Since that article, HSY stock is up 18% since.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;In late April, Buck said that she expects&nbsp;Halloween to be very strong&nbsp;this coming October as vaccinations make it possible for trick-or-treaters to get out in the evening air to collect their annual haul of candy and chocolate. I, for one, will be loading up this year.</p>\n<p>“Consumers are participating in seasons, they are telling us they’re doing more movie nights at home, they’re making more s’mores at home [and] at the same time, we’re seeing growth in our food service and our own retail businesses, which are away from home,” Buck told<i>CNBC.</i></p>\n<p>As a result, HSY sees higher earnings and sales in 2021 than originally expected. It’s good to know consumers haven’t lost their taste for sweets during the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>AT&amp;T</b><b>(T)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-8.4%</p>\n<p>Back in July 2018, I wrote about the&nbsp;<i>7 Reasons AT&amp;T Is Going to Blow the Time Warner Merger.</i>At the time, the Department of Justice was trying to block the mega-merger.</p>\n<p>In hindsight, I’m sure long-time shareholders wish the DOJ had been successful in blocking the acquisition. It’s been both a time waster and a serious blow to AT&amp;T’s reputation with dividend investors.</p>\n<p><i>CNBC</i>host Jim Cramer has been&nbsp;very critical&nbsp;of the mistakes made by AT&amp;T.</p>\n<p>“I am not calling it a transformational deal. I am calling it the denouement of a ridiculously stupid deal, the $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, a deal that closed less than three years ago,” Cramer stated in his<i>Real Money</i>column on May 17, the day AT&amp;T threw in the towel on WarnerMedia.</p>\n<p>The reality is that T paid $85 billion for WarnerMedia. It’s getting&nbsp;$43 billion&nbsp;in cash, debt, and WarnerMedia retains some of the debt. AT&amp;T shareholders will also own 71% of the new business.</p>\n<p>The downside is that AT&amp;T will cut the dividend&nbsp;in half.</p>\n<p>All these dividend chasers are left holding squat and hoping for dear life that the merged entity can deliver at least $42 billion in additional value to get back to square one before the ridiculously stupid merger took place.</p>\n<p>It was one of the dumbest deals of the 21st century.</p>\n<p><b>Lennar (LEN)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-7.9%</p>\n<p>Lennar makes our list of stocks to watch because over the past five days, the homebuilder lost almost 8% of its value. The&nbsp;<b>iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF</b>&nbsp;(BATS:<b><u>ITB</u></b>), which has a&nbsp;Lennar weighting&nbsp;of 12.2%, lost 5.4% over the past five days.</p>\n<p>Let’s call it a cooling-off period. The ITB has an annualized total return of 75.9% over the past year and is up 25.8% year-to-date. Over the past decade, it’s got an annualized total return of 19%, 468 basis points better than its consumer cyclical peers.</p>\n<p>For those who believe there is a housing bubble right around the corner, consider Ben Carlson’s&nbsp;<i>Fortune</i>&nbsp;article from April. It suggests&nbsp;home loans&nbsp;are mostly being made by people with good credit scores and large down payments, the opposite of the subprime meltdown in 2008.</p>\n<p>If you combine this fact with the reality that the housing supply isn’t nearly as abundant as it ought to be, you get the picture of a supply issue rather than one of excess demand.</p>\n<p>Here’s what Lennar Executive Chairman Stuart Miller had to say in its Q1 2021 conference call in March.</p>\n<blockquote>\n So, from a macro perspective, the housing market remains strong. Demand has continued to strengthen as the millennial generation, which had previously postponed its entry into the housing market, has now continued to drive family formation, while at the same time, the supply of new and existing homes remains constrained.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Take advantage of these pullbacks. The housing boom hardly seems ready to end anytime soon.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla (TSLA)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-6.4%</p>\n<p>Innovation costs money. That’s especially true when it comes to the electrification of transportation. It took Tesla&nbsp;15 years&nbsp;to post its first annual profit after Elon Musk&nbsp;took control&nbsp;of it in 2004.</p>\n<p>After running up huge returns in 2020, Tesla is off almost 27% in the past three months due to many different reasons, including the fact Michael Burry, the man behind the&nbsp;<i>Big Short,</i>has taken a&nbsp;short position&nbsp;using put options on 800,100 shares of TSLA stock.</p>\n<p>And while Musk has gone hot and cold over&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;(CCC:<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>), Tesla shareholders ought to be more worried about the&nbsp;bureaucratic nightmare&nbsp;happening across the pond in Germany as it tries to get its Berlin Gigafactory built.</p>\n<p>“Although things looked good regarding the Tesla facility up to a few weeks ago, a different reality can lie behind a facade,” says Berlin-based auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.</p>\n<p>The new Berlin airport, which is very close to the Tesla factory, took almost a decade to get regulatory approval from the German authorities. If Tesla takes that long, Musk can forget about becoming the richest person in the world.</p>\n<p>I’m a fan of Musk’s innovative bent, but 2021 could turn out to be one of his most challenging years on record. That makes Tesla one of our stocks to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-4.9%</p>\n<p>A piece of news that probably got lost in the shuffle was Chipotle’s March announcement that it plans to&nbsp;accelerate its expansionin&nbsp;to Canada. Over the next year, it will open eight more locations in Canada, including one Chipotlane, the company’s digital drive-up. The openings will be the first since October 2018.</p>\n<p>As a Canadian, all I can say is, it’s about time.</p>\n<p>“Given the rising popularity of Chipotle’s real food in Canada, we believe there is a massive growth opportunity in this international market,” said Anat Davidzon, Chipotle’s managing director – Canada. “Our team is focused on continuing to find ways to increase access to Chipotle for our Canadian fans.”</p>\n<p>With only 23 Chipotle locations in four Canadian cities at the moment (Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and London) there is plenty of room for expansion. Hopefully, they’ll open one in Halifax in the next couple of years.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, Chipotle stock has recovered nicely in recent years. A $5,000 investment three years ago is worth $15,338 today. That’s tasty.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind CMG isn’t cheap at almost&nbsp;6x sales. However, compared to&nbsp;<b>McDonald’s</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>MCD</u></b>) at&nbsp;8.9x sales, it’s a bargain.</p>\n<p><b>MSCI (MSCI)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-3.8%</p>\n<p>I don’t know if it’s just me and my self-diagnosed dyslexia, but I always seem to get MSCI confused with&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P Global</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>SPGI</u></b>). They’re both financial services companies, they both have four-letter stock symbols, and over the past five days of trading, they’re both down a lot more than the index.</p>\n<p>And not to be too easy on me, but both companies have index businesses that generate significant revenue and profits for their shareholders. In the past, I’ve recommended both stocks.</p>\n<p>In May 2020, I recommended MSCI stock as one of&nbsp;seven stocks to buy&nbsp;from the&nbsp;<b>TrimTabs All Cap US Free-Cash Flow ETF</b>(BATS:<b><u>TTAC</u></b>). I picked MSCI because its free cash flow had almost doubled from $360 million in 2017 to $660 million in 2019.</p>\n<p>Well, in the trailing 12 months, it was&nbsp;$863 million, a compound annual growth rate of 31% over the past 3.25 years. Frankly, I don’t think you can go wrong owning either MSCI or SPGI.</p>\n<p>However, over the past five years, the former has doubled the performance of the latter. Take that to the bank.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Winning Stocks and 5 Losing Stocks to Watch Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Winning Stocks and 5 Losing Stocks to Watch Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/05/5-winning-losing-stocks-to-watch-right-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years\nSource: Shutterstock\nAround this time last year, I wrote up a gallery of stocks to watch that had caught investor...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/5-winning-losing-stocks-to-watch-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/5-winning-losing-stocks-to-watch-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108503848","content_text":"Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years\nSource: Shutterstock\nAround this time last year, I wrote up a gallery of stocks to watch that had caught investor interest over a week’s worth of trading. In that example, theS&P 500had gained 3.5% over the previous five days of trading.\nAs a result, out of my 10 stocks to watch,seven were burning up the track while three were lagging the index.\nNow that we’re in 2021, I thought I would do the same thing.\nOnly this time, I’ll find five winners and losers from the past five days of trading who’ve either outperformed or underperformed the index. For this article, I’ll use May 12 through May 18 (five days and a weekend) and limit the companies to stocks with market capitalizations of $10 billion or higher.\nIf you’re wondering, the 10 stocks to watch from my article (both good and bad weekly performances) had lights-out returns over the past year.\nBetween May 12 and May 18, the S&P 500 had a total return of -0.6%. Based on that, here are my five winning stocks and five losing stocks to watch right now.\n\nNortonLifeLock(NASDAQ:NLOK)\nOccidental Petroleum(NYSE:OXY)\nUlta Beauty(NASDAQ:ULTA)\nRoyal Caribbean(NYSE:RCL)\nHershey(NYSE:HSY)\nAT&T(NYSE:T)\nLennar(NYSE:LEN)\nTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)\nChipotle Mexican Grill(NYSE:CMG)\nMSCI(NYSE:MSCI)\n\nNortonLifeLock (NLOK)\nFive-day performance:13.5%\nThe cybersecurity software and services company got a nice boost on May 12 when BofA analyst Tal Liani upgraded NLOK stock to “buy” from “underperform.” More importantly, the analyst increased its target price by 58%, from $19 to $30. Currently trading below the target, it’s possible future quarterly results could push that higher.\nLiani believes that the consumer market, NortonLifeLock’s bread and butter, provides it with a long runway of growth. The company itself expects 2022 revenue growth of at least 8% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, which would be 60% higher year-over-year.\n“Management believes the consumer cybersecurity market is heavily underpenetrated, which leaves room for growing the subscriber base as well,” Liani wrote.“Lastly, international expansion is another key element, with international sales accounting for 30% of revenues, and management outlined a country-by-country strategy to address the remaining potential.”\nNortonLifeLock’s been on a strong run the past five years with an annualized total return of 18.8%. But it looks as though the next five could be equally rewarding for shareholders.\nOccidental Petroleum (OXY)\nFive-day performance:5.6%\nInvestor’s Business Daily commented in early May that the Occidental corporate jet was spotted in Omaha days before Warren Buffett invested $10 billion in the oil company in 2019.\nAt times in the past couple of years, I’m sure Buffett would have preferred the jet go almost anywhere else except Omaha, as the price of oil tanked. As part of his $10 billion preferred-share investment, Buffett got 83.86 million warrants to buy OXY stock at $59.62.\nStarting in 2029, Occidental can redeem the 8% preferreds at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus any unpaid dividends. The dividends Buffett was paid in 2020 were made in Oxy stock. The Oracle of Omaha sold those shares in August 2020.\nThanks to a rebound in oil prices, Occidental’s got a total return of almost 72% over the past year, significantly higher than the U.S. markets as a whole. However, as I write this, OXY stock is still trading at less than half Buffett’s exercise price.\nHe’s got until one year after Occidental were to redeem its preferred shares. That means at least another nine years to move into the money.\nUlta Beauty (ULTA)\nFive-day performance:4.7%\nThe specialty retailer of cosmetics, skin and hair care products, fragrances, and a provider of beauty salon services, reports its Q1 2021 results on May 27. The 27 analysts who cover ULTA estimate $1.90 per share on the bottom line and $1.63 billion in sales on the top line. Both will be marked improvements from a year ago when Covid-19 stay-at-home orders were kicking in.\nIn mid-May, JPMorgan analysts named Ulta to its list of favorite retail stocks. The bank gives ULTA an overweight rating and has it on its Analyst Focus List. Interestingly,Target(NYSE:TGT) is also a favorite of JPM due to its inventory control and overall strength during the important back-to-school season.\nIn November, Ulta announced that it would open 1,000-square-foot shops within Target. They will be staffed by the discount retailer with training from Ulta.\nBoth Ulta CEO Mary Dillon and Target CEO Brian Cornell believe the arrangement will help drive traffic to both stores. Two of the best CEOs in retail, this partnership is sure to be a success, making ULTA one of our stocks to watch.\nRoyal Caribbean (RCL)\nFive-day performance:4.6%\nIt wasn’t just Royal Caribbean that had a good five days of trading. All of the cruise operators did.Carnival (NYSE:CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) were up 8.2% and 5.7%, respectively. I happen to prefer RCL over the other two.\nThe cruise operator got excellent news in late April when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention clarified its position on cruise ships setting sail from American ports of call this summer. Royal Caribbean figures it can restart its U.S. cruise departures in mid-July.\nConsidering it lost $1.1 billion in its latest quarter, the news couldn’t have come at a better time. Plus, its balance sheet is currently bolstered by more than $5 billion in cash. As cruise-goers appear to be ready to spend more on cruises than in past years, they should be able to get back to pre-Covid revenues by the end of 2022, perhaps earlier.\nIn 2020, while RCL was getting pummeled, I continued to say it was a long-term winner. Up almost double in the past year, RCL should top $100 before the end of 2021.\nHershey (HSY)\nFive-day performance:2.3%\nI know what you’re thinking. When considering stocks to watch, why include a company that gained a measly 2.3% over the past five days? Especially when there were 46 stocks ($10 billion market cap or higher) with a better return?\nSimple. I like the job CEO Michele Buck has done since taking the top job in March 2017. It’s why I included Hershey on my October 2020 list of companies with top-notch women CEOs. Since that article, HSY stock is up 18% since.\n In late April, Buck said that she expects Halloween to be very strong this coming October as vaccinations make it possible for trick-or-treaters to get out in the evening air to collect their annual haul of candy and chocolate. I, for one, will be loading up this year.\n“Consumers are participating in seasons, they are telling us they’re doing more movie nights at home, they’re making more s’mores at home [and] at the same time, we’re seeing growth in our food service and our own retail businesses, which are away from home,” Buck toldCNBC.\nAs a result, HSY sees higher earnings and sales in 2021 than originally expected. It’s good to know consumers haven’t lost their taste for sweets during the pandemic.\nAT&T(T)\nFive-day performance:-8.4%\nBack in July 2018, I wrote about the 7 Reasons AT&T Is Going to Blow the Time Warner Merger.At the time, the Department of Justice was trying to block the mega-merger.\nIn hindsight, I’m sure long-time shareholders wish the DOJ had been successful in blocking the acquisition. It’s been both a time waster and a serious blow to AT&T’s reputation with dividend investors.\nCNBChost Jim Cramer has been very critical of the mistakes made by AT&T.\n“I am not calling it a transformational deal. I am calling it the denouement of a ridiculously stupid deal, the $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, a deal that closed less than three years ago,” Cramer stated in hisReal Moneycolumn on May 17, the day AT&T threw in the towel on WarnerMedia.\nThe reality is that T paid $85 billion for WarnerMedia. It’s getting $43 billion in cash, debt, and WarnerMedia retains some of the debt. AT&T shareholders will also own 71% of the new business.\nThe downside is that AT&T will cut the dividend in half.\nAll these dividend chasers are left holding squat and hoping for dear life that the merged entity can deliver at least $42 billion in additional value to get back to square one before the ridiculously stupid merger took place.\nIt was one of the dumbest deals of the 21st century.\nLennar (LEN)\nFive-day performance:-7.9%\nLennar makes our list of stocks to watch because over the past five days, the homebuilder lost almost 8% of its value. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB), which has a Lennar weighting of 12.2%, lost 5.4% over the past five days.\nLet’s call it a cooling-off period. The ITB has an annualized total return of 75.9% over the past year and is up 25.8% year-to-date. Over the past decade, it’s got an annualized total return of 19%, 468 basis points better than its consumer cyclical peers.\nFor those who believe there is a housing bubble right around the corner, consider Ben Carlson’s Fortune article from April. It suggests home loans are mostly being made by people with good credit scores and large down payments, the opposite of the subprime meltdown in 2008.\nIf you combine this fact with the reality that the housing supply isn’t nearly as abundant as it ought to be, you get the picture of a supply issue rather than one of excess demand.\nHere’s what Lennar Executive Chairman Stuart Miller had to say in its Q1 2021 conference call in March.\n\n So, from a macro perspective, the housing market remains strong. Demand has continued to strengthen as the millennial generation, which had previously postponed its entry into the housing market, has now continued to drive family formation, while at the same time, the supply of new and existing homes remains constrained.\n\nTake advantage of these pullbacks. The housing boom hardly seems ready to end anytime soon.\nTesla (TSLA)\nFive-day performance:-6.4%\nInnovation costs money. That’s especially true when it comes to the electrification of transportation. It took Tesla 15 years to post its first annual profit after Elon Musk took control of it in 2004.\nAfter running up huge returns in 2020, Tesla is off almost 27% in the past three months due to many different reasons, including the fact Michael Burry, the man behind the Big Short,has taken a short position using put options on 800,100 shares of TSLA stock.\nAnd while Musk has gone hot and cold over Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), Tesla shareholders ought to be more worried about the bureaucratic nightmare happening across the pond in Germany as it tries to get its Berlin Gigafactory built.\n“Although things looked good regarding the Tesla facility up to a few weeks ago, a different reality can lie behind a facade,” says Berlin-based auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.\nThe new Berlin airport, which is very close to the Tesla factory, took almost a decade to get regulatory approval from the German authorities. If Tesla takes that long, Musk can forget about becoming the richest person in the world.\nI’m a fan of Musk’s innovative bent, but 2021 could turn out to be one of his most challenging years on record. That makes Tesla one of our stocks to watch.\nChipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)\nFive-day performance:-4.9%\nA piece of news that probably got lost in the shuffle was Chipotle’s March announcement that it plans to accelerate its expansionin to Canada. Over the next year, it will open eight more locations in Canada, including one Chipotlane, the company’s digital drive-up. The openings will be the first since October 2018.\nAs a Canadian, all I can say is, it’s about time.\n“Given the rising popularity of Chipotle’s real food in Canada, we believe there is a massive growth opportunity in this international market,” said Anat Davidzon, Chipotle’s managing director – Canada. “Our team is focused on continuing to find ways to increase access to Chipotle for our Canadian fans.”\nWith only 23 Chipotle locations in four Canadian cities at the moment (Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and London) there is plenty of room for expansion. Hopefully, they’ll open one in Halifax in the next couple of years.\nIn the meantime, Chipotle stock has recovered nicely in recent years. A $5,000 investment three years ago is worth $15,338 today. That’s tasty.\nKeep in mind CMG isn’t cheap at almost 6x sales. However, compared to McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) at 8.9x sales, it’s a bargain.\nMSCI (MSCI)\nFive-day performance:-3.8%\nI don’t know if it’s just me and my self-diagnosed dyslexia, but I always seem to get MSCI confused with S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI). They’re both financial services companies, they both have four-letter stock symbols, and over the past five days of trading, they’re both down a lot more than the index.\nAnd not to be too easy on me, but both companies have index businesses that generate significant revenue and profits for their shareholders. In the past, I’ve recommended both stocks.\nIn May 2020, I recommended MSCI stock as one of seven stocks to buy from the TrimTabs All Cap US Free-Cash Flow ETF(BATS:TTAC). I picked MSCI because its free cash flow had almost doubled from $360 million in 2017 to $660 million in 2019.\nWell, in the trailing 12 months, it was $863 million, a compound annual growth rate of 31% over the past 3.25 years. Frankly, I don’t think you can go wrong owning either MSCI or SPGI.\nHowever, over the past five years, the former has doubled the performance of the latter. 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[抱拳]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084019a4a77a61d22658c77f117a22e2","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858370919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827796660,"gmtCreate":1634521902312,"gmtModify":1634522148020,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>For coin&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>For coin&nbsp;","text":"$丰益国际(F34.SI)$For coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0c151978e38a1942693d5460d43c8d8","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827796660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867159018,"gmtCreate":1633228943354,"gmtModify":1633228943504,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0182bcdf46396daf9c02ea89d34e8cf8","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867159018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164660687,"gmtCreate":1624201058249,"gmtModify":1631891887096,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read [Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"Good read [Grin]&nbsp;","text":"Good read [Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164660687","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165988115,"gmtCreate":1624087136237,"gmtModify":1634010818346,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165988115","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166700036,"gmtCreate":1624024174726,"gmtModify":1631885861072,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"$Starbucks(SBUX)$[Happy]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d0a6ead8bf9afd49ee69c6b9365774","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166700036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163932732,"gmtCreate":1623856047826,"gmtModify":1634026972546,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163932732","repostId":"2143792622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160967249,"gmtCreate":1623769864181,"gmtModify":1634028546875,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160967249","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150591447","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623769391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150591447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150591447","media":"CNBC","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put ","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1150591447","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day meeting Wednesday, could start preliminary discussions about scaling back the unprecedented bond-buying programs that aided the economy during the pandemic. Some market participants believe it’s still too soon for the central bank to signal such a tapering action, while others think the Fed will be able to find a happy medium that won’t upset the markets.\nEach scenario has different investing implications as they are expected to make big moves across asset classes.\nHere’s a playbook for traders on every scenario from the central bank’s key meeting.\nIf the Fed signals it’s staying with easy policies\nThe Fed could reiterate its transitory stance on inflation, ignoring the pick-up in price pressures reflected in recent economic data. If the central bank says its not time to remove accommodative policies and it’s not concerned about inflation, investors should stick with hedges against rising prices like commodities and stocks with high pricing power, investment banks found.\nBank of America screened S&P 500 companies that its analysts believe have the most pricing power and ability to expand margins at times of rising prices. The stocks include a few chipmakers —Nvidia,Texas InstrumentsandBroadcom— as well as consumer plays likeHome Depot,NikeandPepsiCo.Energy dividend payerExxon Mobilis also on the list.\nUBS also developed a framework for scoring corporate pricing agility, which considers pricing power, margin momentum and input cost exposure. For pricing power, UBS quantified the extent to which a company can raise prices over and above costs. For margin momentum, UBS tracked corporate pricing trends using its proprietary pricing mapping.\nFor input cost exposure, UBS searched for companies with negative sentiment around commodity and transport costs on earnings calls.\n\nBillionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said earlier this week that investors should “go all in on the inflation trades” if the Fed keeps ignoring higher prices.\n“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material —if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Tudor Jones said on “Squawk Box”on Monday.\n“If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold,” added Tudor Jones, who called the stock market crash in 1987.\nThe legendary investor believe cryptocurrencies and other commodities are favorable inflation hedges. Other than buying the commodities outright, investors could also bet on related exchange-traded funds, like gold miner ETFs.\nThe VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),the biggest gold miner ETF with more than $14 billion in assets under management, has outperformed the populargold ETF GLDso far this year.\nIf the Fed signals it’s time to start removing easy policies\nAnother widely speculated scenario is for the Fed to signal that it’s nearing the time to dial back easy policy saying it will start tapering soon and move up its forecast for a rate increase. Under such a case where the central bank isn’t sufficiently dovish, many expect bond yields to shoot higher.\n“It could easily move longer yields higher,” said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist. “A revised dot plot could be one way to do that if it shows the anticipation of earlier or more aggressive rate hikes. And Fed Chair Jay Powell could easily push rates up if he shares that the Fed has started discussing tapering or suggests tapering could start in the next several months.”\nTudor Jones warned that this scenario could lead to another taper tantrum that could cause a correction in stocks.\n“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,”Tudor Jones said on Monday. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks.”\nCNBC Pro combed through the returns of all S&P 500 stocks during the last five significant spikes in the 10-year Treasury yield. These five periods of a sharp move in rates occurred between 2003 and 2006, 2008 and 2009, 2012 and 2013, 2016 and 2018, and 2020 through now.\nAfter we found the stocks that beat the market every time, we looked for the names that are well-loved by analysts on Wall Street today. The stocks’ average gains during those rising interest rate periods are listed below, along with the percentage of analysts with buy ratings right now.\n\nBank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian is advising clients to buy high-quality stocks when tapering nears. High-quality stocks have a “B+” or better S&P quality rating.\nSubramanian said during the 2013 taper tantrum, high-quality names outperformed their low-quality counterparts by 1.3 percentage points from peak to trough in May and June.\nA hint at removing stimulus could also hurt stocks that are most sensitive to the economic recovery, including cyclicals like financials, energy and materials.\n“More hawkish = lower growth. Cyclicals should underperform,” Dennis DeBusschere, macro research analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “The fact that hawkish concerns are being brought up at the same time people believe the reflation trade is in trouble and you have a poor Cyclical backdrop.”\nSo far in 2021, the energy sector has been the biggest winner among the 11 S&P 500 groupings, up 46%. Financials and real estate both gained more than 20% this year.\nIf the Fed makes both camps happy\nA third scenario could occur in which the Fed signals that it is concerned about inflation, but the central bank is not yet ready to taper.\nIf Fed chair Jerome Powell admits the discussion of tapering but nothing has been decided, then the market will likely see a modest rally, led by tech stocks, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.\n“This is essentially the outcome that Powell and the Fed have been telegraphing for the past several weeks,” Essaye said. “This would be a continuation of the past two weeks’ Goldilocks market outlook. This outcome would help the S&P 500 extend last week’s breakout.”\nInvestors have been rotating back to tech as of late with bond yields coming down. The tech-heavyNasdaq Compositehas rallied about 2.5% this month, hitting a record close on Monday, its first all-time high since April 26. In comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just under 1% in June.\n“This is what the Fed has been doing for the last several months — warning that an inflation surge was coming but that it is transitory so no need to taper,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “Moreover, this is probably the most expected outcome from the Fed meeting.”\n“Yes, there may be comments by members that the time to start talking about tapering is here, but I think Powell will continue to suggest that inflation is up as expected but is not yet acting any differently than anticipated,” added Paulsen.\nThis year’s pullback in tech stocks has opened some opportunities in high-quality names that are now trading at a discount, according to top-rated technology analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.\nThe Wall Street firm found several technology stocks that have inexpensive valuations and are high in quality. Bernstein screened for the cheapest tech names based on their forward price-to-earnings ratio. 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