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2021-12-19

多谢分享

创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场

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11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109268210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出。","content":"<p>作者：韩旭阳</p>\n<p>在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。</p>\n<p>部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。</p>\n<p>债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出</p>\n<p>数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。</p>\n<p>根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据，上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入，达到36亿美元；同时，IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出，达到64亿美元；HY&amp;EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出，达到29亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972878dfd3eaffb1b73c951adcd4659e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据还显示，全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元，但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元，较前一周增加39%。</p>\n<p><b>股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。</b></p>\n<p>尽管在前几周，受万亿刺激措施的推动，大量资金进入了股票基金，规模达到了前所未有的高峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95cd302e00ba93302ae605efc519da90\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>但随着股市进入长期动荡时期，并伴随着剧烈的下跌，美联储再次启动了加息周期，使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。</b></p>\n<p>数据显示，在上一周，全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元，而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出，流出规模达到260亿美元，这是一个明显的信号，表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117ccb3f28de1456b8cea95cf60d92b7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在细分板块中，科技资金流入19.1亿美元，而前一周则为净流出；自今年2月以来，科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来，消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。</p>\n<p>医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元，但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。</p>\n<p>高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现，由于对美国专用产品的需求激增，在截至12月15日的一周内，所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。</p>\n<p>不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值，新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快，而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0773d0c7a313bc222c7df83b7e233b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示，新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元，为2020年3月25日以来最大，而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。</p>\n<p>货币市场基金也出现了净流出：在连续八周净流入后，全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元；但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89144ff44308afe14c6d7dacfb73a54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0b5d9eb8e83b71ccc21a13623d7322\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在商品基金中，贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元，为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出，此前出现连续两周的净流入。</p>\n<p>货币政策转向</p>\n<p>这是在通胀压力下，市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。</p>\n<p>最新数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>美东时间12月15日周三，美联储在政策会议后宣布，将加快Taper的速度，每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），并暗示明年将加息三次。</p>\n<p>与此同时，欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐，宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。</p>\n<p>而在通胀压力下，英国央行选择升息，将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%，同时维持购债规模不变。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-19 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f61931a0d39e3cccfd6e5e3b0ef5e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109268210","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。\n根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据，上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入，达到36亿美元；同时，IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出，达到64亿美元；HY&EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出，达到29亿美元。\n\n数据还显示，全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元，但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元，较前一周增加39%。\n股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。\n尽管在前几周，受万亿刺激措施的推动，大量资金进入了股票基金，规模达到了前所未有的高峰。\n\n但随着股市进入长期动荡时期，并伴随着剧烈的下跌，美联储再次启动了加息周期，使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。\n数据显示，在上一周，全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元，而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。\n最重要的是，上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出，流出规模达到260亿美元，这是一个明显的信号，表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。\n\n在细分板块中，科技资金流入19.1亿美元，而前一周则为净流出；自今年2月以来，科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来，消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。\n医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元，但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。\n高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现，由于对美国专用产品的需求激增，在截至12月15日的一周内，所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。\n不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值，新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快，而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。\n\n路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示，新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元，为2020年3月25日以来最大，而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。\n货币市场基金也出现了净流出：在连续八周净流入后，全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元；但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。\n\n\n在商品基金中，贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元，为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出，此前出现连续两周的净流入。\n货币政策转向\n这是在通胀压力下，市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。\n最新数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最高水平。\n美东时间12月15日周三，美联储在政策会议后宣布，将加快Taper的速度，每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），并暗示明年将加息三次。\n与此同时，欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐，宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。\n而在通胀压力下，英国央行选择升息，将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%，同时维持购债规模不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699867283,"gmtCreate":1639782916514,"gmtModify":1639782916935,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699867283","repostId":"2192597888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2192597888","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639746069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2192597888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 21:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2192597888","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bb37445a1cdae8f50952b817bd784c3\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，<b>美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。</b></p>\n<p>在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模，实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息，但里德认为加息时间在6月，并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的数据显示，在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中，从宣布加息当天开始计算，经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现，其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。</p>\n<p>以史为鉴，本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中，经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现，也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。</p>\n<p>从美债收益率曲线来看，首次加息过后，美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平，在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的，鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点，2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6ce8bdb3b5842534a919795f00719b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>根据上图，平均来说，经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生，由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。</p>\n<p>在新冠疫情爆发之前，经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生，以此最快速度推测，经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。</p>\n<p>尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的，但也提供了一个大致的框架。</p>\n<p>众所周知，每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为，在此次周期中，美联储已经落后于市场，导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>20世纪60年代中期，美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策，将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末，但最终通胀在1970年失控，随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。</p>\n<p>就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。</p>\n<p>历史表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设，衰退不可避免，但也有望更早结束。</p>\n<p>德意志央行的最新市场调查显示，64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生；31%的受访者认为是2024年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aecdec87eec04e9b590c674ed64271a\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见，交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期，<b>这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年，表明在此期间的某个时间点，美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f0667f911532e2a56e514a89752e3b\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 21:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。\n\n那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？德意志银行的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2192597888","content_text":"美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。\n\n那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？德意志银行的吉姆•里德（Jim 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read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876507543","repostId":"1120958755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120958755","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637324307,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120958755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 20:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120958755","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。","content":"<p>11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 20:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120958755","content_text":"11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。\n奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。\n而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。\n目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。\n\n【中概股】\n阿里巴巴盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。\n京东盘前涨1.59%，网易盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。\n新氧盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。\n1药网盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。\n部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。哔哩哔哩涨1.33%，腾讯音乐涨1.05%，贝壳涨2.33%。\n房多多大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。\n【重要美股】\n“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，Rivian Automotive Inc涨超3%，Lucid Group Inc跌超1%。而老“王者”特斯拉盘前微涨0.57%。\n美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，奥罗拉大麻公司涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。\nModerna盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。\nPalo Alto Networks盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。\n在线奢侈品零售商Farfetch Ltd盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。\n\n国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159458,"gmtCreate":1637040040582,"gmtModify":1637040040688,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159458","repostId":"1139856601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159634,"gmtCreate":1637039982459,"gmtModify":1637039982528,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159634","repostId":"2183079091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873479255,"gmtCreate":1636982312323,"gmtModify":1636982786804,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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[回头]&nbsp;","listText":"通货膨胀 [回头]&nbsp;","text":"通货膨胀 [回头]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879676258","repostId":"2182093443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2182093443","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1636697812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2182093443?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 14:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182093443","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"萨默斯表示，当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，这会使美国经济回归长期停滞状态，通货膨胀上行风险加大。","content":"<p>11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，<b>对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。</b></p>\n<p>在演讲中，萨默斯表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，使得从市场价格反映的情况看，经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是，日本化。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现，这会导致货币政策的失灵。</b>这一词语经常被经济学家拿来<b>描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩</b>的情况，通常伴随着<b>高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施（包括量化宽松）</b>等表现。</p>\n<p>此前，在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中，萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满，对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策，忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战，如气候变化等。这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>的官员们拒绝采取措施，先发制人地对通胀进行管理，他们只知道等待，什么事情也不做，眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n</blockquote>\n<h2>萨默斯的警告</h2>\n<p>早在2013年，萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在金融危机的几年后，我得出了一个结论，工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n</blockquote>\n<p>同时，他解释道：<b>这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀</b>，<b>而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。</b></p>\n<p>萨默斯称，2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加，利率大幅下降，资产价格远高于预期，然而增长却远低于预期。</p>\n<p>同时，<b>他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险</b>：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便，也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据，极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>（华尔街见闻注：极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负，会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。）</p>\n<h2>美联储不作为，通胀过高引发众大佬抨击</h2>\n<p>从美联储的职责来看，<b>其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右，然而，今年美国通胀居高不下</b>。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前提及，10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%，创31年以来新高；另一边，于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数，在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%，也位于近30年最高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34993af32ad8d03aa4f35d42235d9468\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此前，美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”，随后，由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解，美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。</p>\n<p>对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为，众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。</p>\n<p>11月11日，<b>桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟</b>，在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称：投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为，资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕，他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被（通胀）所侵蚀。他认为，认为，本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单，就是源于政府印钱。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱，2) 人们得到了更多的钱，3) 产生了更多的购买，从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>此前，<b>亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic</b> 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满，他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>绿光基金创始人 <b>David Einhorn</b> 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是：鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此，在10月20日，他猛烈地抨击到：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为，他不仅没有努力对抗通胀，相反，他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”\n</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-12 14:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中，萨默斯表示：\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182093443","content_text":"11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中，萨默斯表示：\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，使得从市场价格反映的情况看，经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是，日本化。”\n\n“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现，这会导致货币政策的失灵。这一词语经常被经济学家拿来描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩的情况，通常伴随着高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施（包括量化宽松）等表现。\n此前，在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中，萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满，对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策，忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示：\n\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战，如气候变化等。这些中央银行的官员们拒绝采取措施，先发制人地对通胀进行管理，他们只知道等待，什么事情也不做，眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n\n萨默斯的警告\n早在2013年，萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示：\n\n “在金融危机的几年后，我得出了一个结论，工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n\n同时，他解释道：这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀，而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。\n萨默斯称，2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加，利率大幅下降，资产价格远高于预期，然而增长却远低于预期。\n同时，他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险：\n\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便，也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据，极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n\n（华尔街见闻注：极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负，会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。）\n美联储不作为，通胀过高引发众大佬抨击\n从美联储的职责来看，其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右，然而，今年美国通胀居高不下。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%，创31年以来新高；另一边，于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数，在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%，也位于近30年最高位。\n\n此前，美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”，随后，由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解，美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。\n对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为，众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。\n11月11日，桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟，在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称：投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为，资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕，他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被（通胀）所侵蚀。他认为，认为，本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单，就是源于政府印钱。\n\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱，2) 人们得到了更多的钱，3) 产生了更多的购买，从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n\n此前，亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满，他表示：\n\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n\n绿光基金创始人 David Einhorn 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是：鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此，在10月20日，他猛烈地抨击到：\n\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为，他不仅没有努力对抗通胀，相反，他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879145971,"gmtCreate":1636695575429,"gmtModify":1636695620364,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ea4e951f8a8d9a3fe5b85a4f0abf9a","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844598362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816589707,"gmtCreate":1630507218609,"gmtModify":1631889990519,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No wonder&nbsp;","listText":"No wonder&nbsp;","text":"No wonder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816589707","repostId":"1166477679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166477679","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630506475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166477679?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.<blockquote>Lucid股票正在下跌。原因与电动汽车制造无关。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166477679","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electr","content":"<p>Investors in&nbsp;Lucid&nbsp;are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.2% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was flat..</p><p><blockquote>Lucid的投资者将经历初创电动汽车公司中经常发生的艰难日子之一。该股早盘下跌16%，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数持平..</blockquote></p><p> Life can be tough for investors in&nbsp;these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with&nbsp;corporate fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于这些公司的投资者来说，生活可能会很艰难。很多事情都可以显着影响股价。其中很多与企业基本面无关。</blockquote></p><p> The issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三的问题是Lucid PIPE（即公共股权私人投资）投资者的股票销售禁令到期。管道锁定于周三到期。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid成为一家上市公司，并通过与一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)合并筹集了超过40亿美元。管道是SPAC合并的共同特征。Lucid PIPE筹集了该公司收到的44亿美元总额中的约25亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by&nbsp;BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management &amp; Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.</p><p><blockquote>PIPE投资者的质量（他们可以是大型机构）通常会改善投资者对SPAC合并的看法。Lucid的PIPE投资者包括贝莱德(BLK)、富达管理与研究、富兰克林邓普顿、路博迈、惠灵顿管理等管理的账户。</blockquote></p><p> PIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>根据最近提交的文件，PIPE投资者拥有该股约10%的股份。PIPE股票的售价约为每股15美元，因此这些投资者将获得可观的收益。Lucid股价早盘报16.84美元。</blockquote></p><p> Anytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.</p><p><blockquote>每当大量股票可供出售时，股价就会疲软。投资者和交易员希望在大股东抛售之前退出。它会造成一种情况，即对销售的恐惧会导致实际销售。</blockquote></p><p> None of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.</p><p><blockquote>当然，PIPE股东都不必出售。他们现在可以卖了。Lucid没有立即就PIPE、投资者的计划或禁售期到期发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Coming into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&amp;P has gained about 8% over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三，Lucid股价在过去三个月内下跌了约7%。同期，标准普尔指数上涨了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> Other EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from&nbsp;General Motors(GM) regarding its&nbsp;second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.</p><p><blockquote>其他电动汽车股票也表现疲软。限制全球汽车生产的半导体短缺，加上通用汽车(GM)对其2021年下半年盈利的悲观预测，似乎让该行业失去了一些动力。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid plans to&nbsp;start making&nbsp;and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid计划于2021年晚些时候开始制造和交付其首款电动汽车Lucid Air。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.<blockquote>Lucid股票正在下跌。原因与电动汽车制造无关。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.<blockquote>Lucid股票正在下跌。原因与电动汽车制造无关。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-01 22:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors in&nbsp;Lucid&nbsp;are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.2% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was flat..</p><p><blockquote>Lucid的投资者将经历初创电动汽车公司中经常发生的艰难日子之一。该股早盘下跌16%，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数持平..</blockquote></p><p> Life can be tough for investors in&nbsp;these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with&nbsp;corporate fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于这些公司的投资者来说，生活可能会很艰难。很多事情都可以显着影响股价。其中很多与企业基本面无关。</blockquote></p><p> The issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三的问题是Lucid PIPE（即公共股权私人投资）投资者的股票销售禁令到期。管道锁定于周三到期。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid成为一家上市公司，并通过与一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)合并筹集了超过40亿美元。管道是SPAC合并的共同特征。Lucid PIPE筹集了该公司收到的44亿美元总额中的约25亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by&nbsp;BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management &amp; Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.</p><p><blockquote>PIPE投资者的质量（他们可以是大型机构）通常会改善投资者对SPAC合并的看法。Lucid的PIPE投资者包括贝莱德(BLK)、富达管理与研究、富兰克林邓普顿、路博迈、惠灵顿管理等管理的账户。</blockquote></p><p> PIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>根据最近提交的文件，PIPE投资者拥有该股约10%的股份。PIPE股票的售价约为每股15美元，因此这些投资者将获得可观的收益。Lucid股价早盘报16.84美元。</blockquote></p><p> Anytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.</p><p><blockquote>每当大量股票可供出售时，股价就会疲软。投资者和交易员希望在大股东抛售之前退出。它会造成一种情况，即对销售的恐惧会导致实际销售。</blockquote></p><p> None of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.</p><p><blockquote>当然，PIPE股东都不必出售。他们现在可以卖了。Lucid没有立即就PIPE、投资者的计划或禁售期到期发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Coming into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&amp;P has gained about 8% over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三，Lucid股价在过去三个月内下跌了约7%。同期，标准普尔指数上涨了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> Other EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from&nbsp;General Motors(GM) regarding its&nbsp;second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.</p><p><blockquote>其他电动汽车股票也表现疲软。限制全球汽车生产的半导体短缺，加上通用汽车(GM)对其2021年下半年盈利的悲观预测，似乎让该行业失去了一些动力。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid plans to&nbsp;start making&nbsp;and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid计划于2021年晚些时候开始制造和交付其首款电动汽车Lucid Air。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1166477679","content_text":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat..\nLife can be tough for investors in these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals.\nThe issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.\nLucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.\nThe quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management & Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.\nPIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.\nAnytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.\nNone of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.\nComing into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&P has gained about 8% over the same span.\nOther EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from General Motors(GM) regarding its second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.\nLucid plans to start making and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164614346,"gmtCreate":1624200279685,"gmtModify":1634009555577,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good 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coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0c151978e38a1942693d5460d43c8d8","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827796660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867159018,"gmtCreate":1633228943354,"gmtModify":1633228943504,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0182bcdf46396daf9c02ea89d34e8cf8","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867159018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164660687,"gmtCreate":1624201058249,"gmtModify":1631891887096,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read [Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"Good read [Grin]&nbsp;","text":"Good read [Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164660687","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165988115,"gmtCreate":1624087136237,"gmtModify":1634010818346,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165988115","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166700036,"gmtCreate":1624024174726,"gmtModify":1631885861072,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"$Starbucks(SBUX)$[Happy]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d0a6ead8bf9afd49ee69c6b9365774","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166700036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163932732,"gmtCreate":1623856047826,"gmtModify":1634026972546,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163932732","repostId":"2143792622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160967249,"gmtCreate":1623769864181,"gmtModify":1634028546875,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160967249","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191649062,"gmtCreate":1620876938656,"gmtModify":1631885993727,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"$Starbucks(SBUX)$[Grin]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375a5db43f4cef0812adb67bf22f7ece","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191649062","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":699020673,"gmtCreate":1639725049060,"gmtModify":1639725049258,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>[傲娇]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>[傲娇]&nbsp;","text":"$丰益国际(F34.SI)$[傲娇]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2bd6e031a58022c4469861e341459c","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699020673","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}