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2021-12-15

Pwr

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2021-12-15

Like pls

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2021-12-15

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Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>

2021-12-14

Pwr

2 Top Metaverse Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade<blockquote>未来十年最值得购买和持有的 2 只元宇宙股票</blockquote>

2021-12-14

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Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近其 85 年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>

2021-12-14

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Honeywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将以未公开的金额收购美国数字设计公司</blockquote>

2021-12-14

Shut up

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>

2021-12-13

Gogogo

Apple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果 3 万亿美元的市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote>

2021-12-13

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Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>

2021-12-13

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Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>

2021-12-12

Sure bo

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2021-12-11

Swee

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2021-12-11

Pwr

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2021-12-11

Gogoogo

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2021-12-11

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2021-12-10

Gogogo

Palantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir 的股票可能会下跌，但绝对不会下跌</blockquote>

2021-12-10

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2021-12-09

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2021-12-09

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2021-12-09

Pwr

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607293477","repostId":"1102037947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607293834,"gmtCreate":1639540766121,"gmtModify":1639540766506,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607293834","repostId":"1156446659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156446659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639540344,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156446659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><div> Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday. That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $...</p><p><blockquote><div>周五，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有的 8.87 亿股苹果股票价值飙升至 1,590 亿美元。这使得这些股份相当于伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，以及近25%的美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday. That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $...</p><p><blockquote><div>周五，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有的 8.87 亿股苹果股票价值飙升至 1,590 亿美元。这使得这些股份相当于伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，以及近25%的美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018617,"gmtCreate":1639456492848,"gmtModify":1639456493188,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pwr","listText":"Pwr","text":"Pwr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018617","repostId":"1174933722","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174933722","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639452484,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174933722?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Metaverse Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade<blockquote>未来十年最值得购买和持有的 2 只元宇宙股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174933722","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The metaverse could be the most transformative technology of your lifetime.","content":"<p>The metaverse is a nebulous idea, a technology that's not yet fully defined. But the core concept is simple: The metaverse will be a shared virtual world, blending aspects of social media, video games, and the internet. It will allow people to engage with content, interact with each other, and experience almost anything. The potential implications of that technology are tremendous.</p><p><blockquote>元宇宙是一个模糊的概念，一项尚未完全定义的技术。但核心概念很简单：元宇宙将是一个共享的虚拟世界，融合了社交媒体、视频游戏和互联网的各个方面。它将允许人们参与内容，相互互动，并体验几乎任何东西。这项技术的潜在影响是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Venture capitalist Matthew Ball recently put a price tag on the metaverse, estimating that it could be a $30 trillion&nbsp;market opportunity 10 years down the road. And&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>&nbsp;CEO Jensen Huang has been even bolder, forecasting that the metaverse economy could eventually surpass the $80 trillion&nbsp;real-world economy.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资家 Matthew Ball 最近给元宇宙贴上了价格标签，估计 10 年后这可能是一个 30 万亿美元的市场机会。和<b>英伟达</b>首席执行官黄仁勋更加大胆，他预测元宇宙经济最终可能超过80万亿美元的现实世界经济。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, many investors are looking for ways tocash in on this trend, and buying a few shares of Nvidia and&nbsp;<b>Adobe Systems</b>&nbsp;looks like a great way to do just that.&nbsp;Here's why.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，许多投资者正在寻找利用这一趋势赚钱的方法，并购买一些英伟达和<b>Adobe系统</b>看起来是个很好的方法。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd705043d0678fb6d8bad5d9d7b0fbef\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.英伟达</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia is best known for inventing the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip capable of processing a tremendous amount of data quickly. Over the last two decades, GPUs have revolutionized computer graphics, and Nvidia has established its technology as the gold standard in the video game industry. However, those chips have also become the cornerstone of accelerated computing in data centers, another industry&nbsp;dominated by Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达最出名的是发明了图形处理单元（GPU），这是一种能够快速处理大量数据的芯片。在过去的二十年里，GPU彻底改变了计算机图形，Nvidia也将其技术确立为视频游戏行业的黄金标准。然而，这些芯片也成为了数据中心加速计算的基石，这是英伟达主导的另一个行业。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the chipmaker has made a habit of posting impressive financial results. Revenue soared 64%&nbsp;to $24.3 billion over the past year, supercharged by Nvidia's gaming, data center, and graphics businesses. Its bottom line grew even faster, as&nbsp;free cash flow&nbsp;rocketed 69% to $7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，这家芯片制造商已经养成了公布令人印象深刻的财务业绩的习惯。在 Nvidia 游戏、数据中心和图形业务的推动下，去年收入飙升 64%，达到 243 亿美元。其利润增长更快，自由现金流猛增 69%，达到 72 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the coming years, Nvidia's expertise in graphics and accelerated computing should make it a key player in shaping the metaverse. Its recent launch of the Omniverse suite only makes that more likely. Specifically, Omniverse is a GPU-powered 3D development platform that allows creators to collaborate in real time across a variety of 3D design software. That includes products like&nbsp;<b>Unity</b>'s&nbsp;game engine&nbsp;and Adobe Substance 3D.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，英伟达在图形和加速计算方面的专业知识应该会使其成为塑造元宇宙的关键人物。它最近推出的Omniverse套件只会让这种可能性更大。具体来说，Omniverse是一个由GPU驱动的3D开发平台，允许创作者跨各种3D设计软件实时协作。其中包括以下产品<b>团结</b>的游戏引擎和Adobe Substance 3D。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, Nvidia released Omniverse Avatar, a platform for creating artifical-intelligence-powered avatars (digital automatons) that can think, understand, and interact like real people. That's important because the metaverse will likely be full of non-player characters (NPCs), a term that typically refers to video game characters not controlled by the gamer. Those NPCs will make the metaverse feel more like the real world, and Nvidia's technology looks like a perfect fit.</p><p><blockquote>最近，英伟达发布了Omniverse Avatar，这是一个创建人工智能驱动的化身（数字自动机）的平台，可以像真人一样思考、理解和互动。这很重要，因为元宇宙可能会充满非玩家角色（NPC），这个术语通常指的是不受玩家控制的视频游戏角色。那些NPC会让元宇宙感觉更像现实世界，而Nvidia的技术看起来是一个完美的契合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Adobe Systems</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. Adobe 系统</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe breaks its portfolio into three software clouds: Creativity, digital documents, and customer experience. Creative Cloud is perhaps the best known, featuring tools like Photoshop&nbsp;for image editing, Premiere Pro&nbsp;for video editing, and After Effects for cinematic special effects, all three of which are market-leading products. Likewise, many of Adobe's Document Cloud applications have also become industry standards, such as Acrobat for PDF management.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe将其产品组合分为三个软件云：创意、数字文档和客户体验。Creative Cloud可能是最著名的，它拥有用于图像编辑的Photoshop、用于视频编辑的Premiere Pro和用于电影特效的After Effects等工具，这三种工具都是市场领先的产品。同样，Adobe的许多文档云应用程序也已成为行业标准，例如用于PDF管理的Acrobat。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece of Adobe's business is Experience Cloud, a suite of software and services for analytics, marketing, and commerce. Those tools lean on&nbsp;artificial intelligence&nbsp;to help businesses collect data, target content, and personalize the customer journey across mobile apps, websites, and other digital channels. Research company&nbsp;<b>Gartner</b>&nbsp;has recognized Adobe as a leader in the digital experience industry, citing its capacity to manage customer data and personalize content as key differentiators.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe的另一项业务是Experience Cloud，这是一套用于分析、营销和商业的软件和服务。这些工具依靠人工智能来帮助企业收集数据、定位内容，并通过移动应用程序、网站和其他数字渠道个性化客户旅程。研究公司<b>高德纳</b>已将 Adobe 视为数字体验行业的领导者，并将其管理客户数据和个性化内容的能力视为关键差异化因素。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, Adobe's lineup of best-in-class products has been a powerful growth driver. Over the past year, revenue rose 21% to $15.1 billion, and free cash flow surged 34% to $6.6 billion. Moreover, the company is well positioned to maintain that momentum, as many products in its portfolio are relevant to the metaverse, especially in the Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud suites.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，Adobe的一流产品阵容一直是强大的增长动力。过去一年，收入增长 21%，达到 151 亿美元，自由现金流激增 34%，达到 66 亿美元。此外，该公司处于有利地位，可以保持这种势头，因为其产品组合中的许多产品都与元宇宙相关，尤其是创意云和体验云套件。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, Adobe Substance&nbsp;3D is a platform for creating, staging, and texturizing 3D content. Substance 3D is already essential&nbsp;to most video game and visual effects workflows, and it should be a valuable resource in creating the virtual content within the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Adobe Substance 3D是一个用于创建、暂存和纹理化3D内容的平台。Substance 3D对于大多数视频游戏和视觉效果工作流程来说已经是必不可少的，它应该是在元宇宙中创建虚拟内容的宝贵资源。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, the metaverse economy will likely mirror the real-world economy, meaning consumers will be able to shop, attend events, and play games. In other words, providing a high-quality experience will be just as critical in a virtual world as it is in the real world. And Adobe's tools for analytics, marketing, and commerce fit that bill perfectly.</p><p><blockquote>同样，元宇宙经济可能会反映现实世界的经济，这意味着消费者将能够购物、参加活动和玩游戏。换句话说，在虚拟世界中提供高质量的体验和在现实世界中一样重要。Adobe的分析、营销和商务工具完全符合这一要求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Metaverse Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade<blockquote>未来十年最值得购买和持有的 2 只元宇宙股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Metaverse Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade<blockquote>未来十年最值得购买和持有的 2 只元宇宙股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The metaverse is a nebulous idea, a technology that's not yet fully defined. But the core concept is simple: The metaverse will be a shared virtual world, blending aspects of social media, video games, and the internet. It will allow people to engage with content, interact with each other, and experience almost anything. The potential implications of that technology are tremendous.</p><p><blockquote>元宇宙是一个模糊的概念，一项尚未完全定义的技术。但核心概念很简单：元宇宙将是一个共享的虚拟世界，融合了社交媒体、视频游戏和互联网的各个方面。它将允许人们参与内容，相互互动，并体验几乎任何东西。这项技术的潜在影响是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Venture capitalist Matthew Ball recently put a price tag on the metaverse, estimating that it could be a $30 trillion&nbsp;market opportunity 10 years down the road. And&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>&nbsp;CEO Jensen Huang has been even bolder, forecasting that the metaverse economy could eventually surpass the $80 trillion&nbsp;real-world economy.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资家 Matthew Ball 最近给元宇宙贴上了价格标签，估计 10 年后这可能是一个 30 万亿美元的市场机会。和<b>英伟达</b>首席执行官黄仁勋更加大胆，他预测元宇宙经济最终可能超过80万亿美元的现实世界经济。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, many investors are looking for ways tocash in on this trend, and buying a few shares of Nvidia and&nbsp;<b>Adobe Systems</b>&nbsp;looks like a great way to do just that.&nbsp;Here's why.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，许多投资者正在寻找利用这一趋势赚钱的方法，并购买一些英伟达和<b>Adobe系统</b>看起来是个很好的方法。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd705043d0678fb6d8bad5d9d7b0fbef\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.英伟达</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia is best known for inventing the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip capable of processing a tremendous amount of data quickly. Over the last two decades, GPUs have revolutionized computer graphics, and Nvidia has established its technology as the gold standard in the video game industry. However, those chips have also become the cornerstone of accelerated computing in data centers, another industry&nbsp;dominated by Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达最出名的是发明了图形处理单元（GPU），这是一种能够快速处理大量数据的芯片。在过去的二十年里，GPU彻底改变了计算机图形，Nvidia也将其技术确立为视频游戏行业的黄金标准。然而，这些芯片也成为了数据中心加速计算的基石，这是英伟达主导的另一个行业。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the chipmaker has made a habit of posting impressive financial results. Revenue soared 64%&nbsp;to $24.3 billion over the past year, supercharged by Nvidia's gaming, data center, and graphics businesses. Its bottom line grew even faster, as&nbsp;free cash flow&nbsp;rocketed 69% to $7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，这家芯片制造商已经养成了公布令人印象深刻的财务业绩的习惯。在 Nvidia 游戏、数据中心和图形业务的推动下，去年收入飙升 64%，达到 243 亿美元。其利润增长更快，自由现金流猛增 69%，达到 72 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the coming years, Nvidia's expertise in graphics and accelerated computing should make it a key player in shaping the metaverse. Its recent launch of the Omniverse suite only makes that more likely. Specifically, Omniverse is a GPU-powered 3D development platform that allows creators to collaborate in real time across a variety of 3D design software. That includes products like&nbsp;<b>Unity</b>'s&nbsp;game engine&nbsp;and Adobe Substance 3D.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，英伟达在图形和加速计算方面的专业知识应该会使其成为塑造元宇宙的关键人物。它最近推出的Omniverse套件只会让这种可能性更大。具体来说，Omniverse是一个由GPU驱动的3D开发平台，允许创作者跨各种3D设计软件实时协作。其中包括以下产品<b>团结</b>的游戏引擎和Adobe Substance 3D。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, Nvidia released Omniverse Avatar, a platform for creating artifical-intelligence-powered avatars (digital automatons) that can think, understand, and interact like real people. That's important because the metaverse will likely be full of non-player characters (NPCs), a term that typically refers to video game characters not controlled by the gamer. Those NPCs will make the metaverse feel more like the real world, and Nvidia's technology looks like a perfect fit.</p><p><blockquote>最近，英伟达发布了Omniverse Avatar，这是一个创建人工智能驱动的化身（数字自动机）的平台，可以像真人一样思考、理解和互动。这很重要，因为元宇宙可能会充满非玩家角色（NPC），这个术语通常指的是不受玩家控制的视频游戏角色。那些NPC会让元宇宙感觉更像现实世界，而Nvidia的技术看起来是一个完美的契合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Adobe Systems</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. Adobe 系统</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe breaks its portfolio into three software clouds: Creativity, digital documents, and customer experience. Creative Cloud is perhaps the best known, featuring tools like Photoshop&nbsp;for image editing, Premiere Pro&nbsp;for video editing, and After Effects for cinematic special effects, all three of which are market-leading products. Likewise, many of Adobe's Document Cloud applications have also become industry standards, such as Acrobat for PDF management.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe将其产品组合分为三个软件云：创意、数字文档和客户体验。Creative Cloud可能是最著名的，它拥有用于图像编辑的Photoshop、用于视频编辑的Premiere Pro和用于电影特效的After Effects等工具，这三种工具都是市场领先的产品。同样，Adobe的许多文档云应用程序也已成为行业标准，例如用于PDF管理的Acrobat。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece of Adobe's business is Experience Cloud, a suite of software and services for analytics, marketing, and commerce. Those tools lean on&nbsp;artificial intelligence&nbsp;to help businesses collect data, target content, and personalize the customer journey across mobile apps, websites, and other digital channels. Research company&nbsp;<b>Gartner</b>&nbsp;has recognized Adobe as a leader in the digital experience industry, citing its capacity to manage customer data and personalize content as key differentiators.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe的另一项业务是Experience Cloud，这是一套用于分析、营销和商业的软件和服务。这些工具依靠人工智能来帮助企业收集数据、定位内容，并通过移动应用程序、网站和其他数字渠道个性化客户旅程。研究公司<b>高德纳</b>已将 Adobe 视为数字体验行业的领导者，并将其管理客户数据和个性化内容的能力视为关键差异化因素。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, Adobe's lineup of best-in-class products has been a powerful growth driver. Over the past year, revenue rose 21% to $15.1 billion, and free cash flow surged 34% to $6.6 billion. Moreover, the company is well positioned to maintain that momentum, as many products in its portfolio are relevant to the metaverse, especially in the Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud suites.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，Adobe的一流产品阵容一直是强大的增长动力。过去一年，收入增长 21%，达到 151 亿美元，自由现金流激增 34%，达到 66 亿美元。此外，该公司处于有利地位，可以保持这种势头，因为其产品组合中的许多产品都与元宇宙相关，尤其是创意云和体验云套件。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, Adobe Substance&nbsp;3D is a platform for creating, staging, and texturizing 3D content. Substance 3D is already essential&nbsp;to most video game and visual effects workflows, and it should be a valuable resource in creating the virtual content within the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Adobe Substance 3D是一个用于创建、暂存和纹理化3D内容的平台。Substance 3D对于大多数视频游戏和视觉效果工作流程来说已经是必不可少的，它应该是在元宇宙中创建虚拟内容的宝贵资源。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, the metaverse economy will likely mirror the real-world economy, meaning consumers will be able to shop, attend events, and play games. In other words, providing a high-quality experience will be just as critical in a virtual world as it is in the real world. And Adobe's tools for analytics, marketing, and commerce fit that bill perfectly.</p><p><blockquote>同样，元宇宙经济可能会反映现实世界的经济，这意味着消费者将能够购物、参加活动和玩游戏。换句话说，在虚拟世界中提供高质量的体验和在现实世界中一样重要。Adobe的分析、营销和商务工具完全符合这一要求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/13/2-top-metaverse-stocks-to-buy-and-hold/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/13/2-top-metaverse-stocks-to-buy-and-hold/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174933722","content_text":"The metaverse is a nebulous idea, a technology that's not yet fully defined. But the core concept is simple: The metaverse will be a shared virtual world, blending aspects of social media, video games, and the internet. It will allow people to engage with content, interact with each other, and experience almost anything. The potential implications of that technology are tremendous.\nVenture capitalist Matthew Ball recently put a price tag on the metaverse, estimating that it could be a $30 trillion market opportunity 10 years down the road. And Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been even bolder, forecasting that the metaverse economy could eventually surpass the $80 trillion real-world economy.\nNot surprisingly, many investors are looking for ways tocash in on this trend, and buying a few shares of Nvidia and Adobe Systems looks like a great way to do just that. Here's why.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. Nvidia\nNvidia is best known for inventing the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip capable of processing a tremendous amount of data quickly. Over the last two decades, GPUs have revolutionized computer graphics, and Nvidia has established its technology as the gold standard in the video game industry. However, those chips have also become the cornerstone of accelerated computing in data centers, another industry dominated by Nvidia.\nNot surprisingly, the chipmaker has made a habit of posting impressive financial results. Revenue soared 64% to $24.3 billion over the past year, supercharged by Nvidia's gaming, data center, and graphics businesses. Its bottom line grew even faster, as free cash flow rocketed 69% to $7.2 billion.\nIn the coming years, Nvidia's expertise in graphics and accelerated computing should make it a key player in shaping the metaverse. Its recent launch of the Omniverse suite only makes that more likely. Specifically, Omniverse is a GPU-powered 3D development platform that allows creators to collaborate in real time across a variety of 3D design software. That includes products like Unity's game engine and Adobe Substance 3D.\nMore recently, Nvidia released Omniverse Avatar, a platform for creating artifical-intelligence-powered avatars (digital automatons) that can think, understand, and interact like real people. That's important because the metaverse will likely be full of non-player characters (NPCs), a term that typically refers to video game characters not controlled by the gamer. Those NPCs will make the metaverse feel more like the real world, and Nvidia's technology looks like a perfect fit.\n2. Adobe Systems\nAdobe breaks its portfolio into three software clouds: Creativity, digital documents, and customer experience. Creative Cloud is perhaps the best known, featuring tools like Photoshop for image editing, Premiere Pro for video editing, and After Effects for cinematic special effects, all three of which are market-leading products. Likewise, many of Adobe's Document Cloud applications have also become industry standards, such as Acrobat for PDF management.\nThe other piece of Adobe's business is Experience Cloud, a suite of software and services for analytics, marketing, and commerce. Those tools lean on artificial intelligence to help businesses collect data, target content, and personalize the customer journey across mobile apps, websites, and other digital channels. Research company Gartner has recognized Adobe as a leader in the digital experience industry, citing its capacity to manage customer data and personalize content as key differentiators.\nNot surprisingly, Adobe's lineup of best-in-class products has been a powerful growth driver. Over the past year, revenue rose 21% to $15.1 billion, and free cash flow surged 34% to $6.6 billion. Moreover, the company is well positioned to maintain that momentum, as many products in its portfolio are relevant to the metaverse, especially in the Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud suites.\nFor instance, Adobe Substance 3D is a platform for creating, staging, and texturizing 3D content. Substance 3D is already essential to most video game and visual effects workflows, and it should be a valuable resource in creating the virtual content within the metaverse.\nLikewise, the metaverse economy will likely mirror the real-world economy, meaning consumers will be able to shop, attend events, and play games. In other words, providing a high-quality experience will be just as critical in a virtual world as it is in the real world. And Adobe's tools for analytics, marketing, and commerce fit that bill perfectly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018813,"gmtCreate":1639456482439,"gmtModify":1639456482830,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018813","repostId":"2191841329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191841329","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639452680,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2191841329?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近其 85 年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191841329","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche ","content":"<p>'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行的一份报告称，“通胀历来对收益是中性的，但对市盈率却是负面的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7803ce34d9ebaddbf2c083be3d67a2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&amp;P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500指数于2021年12月10日收盘创下历史新高。克里斯·洪德罗斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究称，标准普尔 500 指数“极高”的历史估值使该指数接近跨越八十多年的“价格上涨趋势通道”的上限，但广泛的股票基准仍可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.</p><p><blockquote>该银行策略师在 12 月 10 日的一份研究报告中写道，美国股指“接近 85 年趋势通道的顶部”。报告中的一张图表显示：“只有在 20 世纪 30 年代末和 90 年代末才会更高，当时它才会更高。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4fc2a69934ea51cf28c489fdfd23d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行研究报告日期为 12 月。10,2021</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，标普500 12 月 10 日收于 4,712.02 点的历史新高，今年有望上涨 24% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&amp;P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&amp;P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师预计该指数明年将继续攀升，指出盈利增长，并在报告中表示股票回购应有助于保持标普500回报率强劲，特别是在 2022 年上半年。根据他们的研究报告，到明年年底，他们的标普500目标价格为 5,250 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&amp;P 500 target of 5,000.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部是投资银行部门的一部分。另外，该银行财富管理部门首席投资办公室于 12 月 6 日提供了 2022 年展望演示，显示标普500目标为 5,000 人。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the S&amp;P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.</p><p><blockquote>根据德意志银行 12 月 10 日的研究报告，“对于标普500，我们预计 2022 年盈利将增长 10%，达到 230 美元”，策略师们指的是他们的每股收益预测。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行期间生活成本飙升的背景下，他们写道：“从历史上看，通货膨胀对收入是中性的，但对倍数是负面的。”</blockquote></p><p> Valuations for the S&amp;P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>根据德意志银行的研究报告，标普500指数的估值“极高”。策略师写道：“几乎所有指标（不包括 20 世纪 90 年代科技泡沫时期）的股票估值都处于第 97-100 个百分位，甚至包括 90 年代的百分位数。”</blockquote></p><p> Their 2022 forecast for the S&amp;P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.</p><p><blockquote>12月10日的研究报告显示，他们对标普500 2022年的预测意味着过去12个月的市盈率为22.8。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.</p><p><blockquote>策略师警告说：“由于盈利已经恢复到高于通常标志着周期峰值的趋势水平，并且股票估值处于历史高位，股票前景看起来比通常情况下面临更大程度的不确定性和更广泛的可能结果。”</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&amp;P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，美国股指周一收低，标普500收盘下跌 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近其 85 年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHighly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近其 85 年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行的一份报告称，“通胀历来对收益是中性的，但对市盈率却是负面的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7803ce34d9ebaddbf2c083be3d67a2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&amp;P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500指数于2021年12月10日收盘创下历史新高。克里斯·洪德罗斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究称，标准普尔 500 指数“极高”的历史估值使该指数接近跨越八十多年的“价格上涨趋势通道”的上限，但广泛的股票基准仍可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.</p><p><blockquote>该银行策略师在 12 月 10 日的一份研究报告中写道，美国股指“接近 85 年趋势通道的顶部”。报告中的一张图表显示：“只有在 20 世纪 30 年代末和 90 年代末才会更高，当时它才会更高。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4fc2a69934ea51cf28c489fdfd23d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行研究报告日期为 12 月。10,2021</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，标普500 12 月 10 日收于 4,712.02 点的历史新高，今年有望上涨 24% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&amp;P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&amp;P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师预计该指数明年将继续攀升，指出盈利增长，并在报告中表示股票回购应有助于保持标普500回报率强劲，特别是在 2022 年上半年。根据他们的研究报告，到明年年底，他们的标普500目标价格为 5,250 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&amp;P 500 target of 5,000.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部是投资银行部门的一部分。另外，该银行财富管理部门首席投资办公室于 12 月 6 日提供了 2022 年展望演示，显示标普500目标为 5,000 人。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the S&amp;P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.</p><p><blockquote>根据德意志银行 12 月 10 日的研究报告，“对于标普500，我们预计 2022 年盈利将增长 10%，达到 230 美元”，策略师们指的是他们的每股收益预测。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行期间生活成本飙升的背景下，他们写道：“从历史上看，通货膨胀对收入是中性的，但对倍数是负面的。”</blockquote></p><p> Valuations for the S&amp;P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>根据德意志银行的研究报告，标普500指数的估值“极高”。策略师写道：“几乎所有指标（不包括 20 世纪 90 年代科技泡沫时期）的股票估值都处于第 97-100 个百分位，甚至包括 90 年代的百分位数。”</blockquote></p><p> Their 2022 forecast for the S&amp;P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.</p><p><blockquote>12月10日的研究报告显示，他们对标普500 2022年的预测意味着过去12个月的市盈率为22.8。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.</p><p><blockquote>策略师警告说：“由于盈利已经恢复到高于通常标志着周期峰值的趋势水平，并且股票估值处于历史高位，股票前景看起来比通常情况下面临更大程度的不确定性和更广泛的可能结果。”</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&amp;P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，美国股指周一收低，标普500收盘下跌 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-valued-s-p-500-index-is-near-the-top-of-its-85-year-trend-channel-says-deutsche-bank-11639432105?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4118":"综合性资本市场",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4566":"资本集团","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DB":"德意志银行",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-valued-s-p-500-index-is-near-the-top-of-its-85-year-trend-channel-says-deutsche-bank-11639432105?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191841329","content_text":"'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report\nThe S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images\nThe S&P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.\nThe U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.\nDEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021\nThe S&P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.\nDeutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.\nDeutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&P 500 target of 5,000.\n\"For the S&P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.\n\"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.\nValuations for the S&P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.\nTheir 2022 forecast for the S&P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.\n\"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.\nU.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DB":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018112,"gmtCreate":1639456472050,"gmtModify":1639456472458,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018112","repostId":"2191098756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191098756","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1639453031,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2191098756?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Honeywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将以未公开的金额收购美国数字设计公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191098756","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Honeywell International Inc (NASDAQ: HON) agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs, Inc.,","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Honeywell International Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ: HON)&nbsp;agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs,&nbsp;Inc., for a purchase multiple of ~14X EBITDA in an all-cash transaction. Deal terms not disclosed.</li>  <li>Tempe, Arizona-based US Digital Designs delivers alerting and dispatch communications solutions, enhancing first responders' efficacy and enabling faster emergency response times.</li>  <li>US Digital Designs' EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell. Honeywell expects to achieve a greater than 25% return on investment by the fifth year.</li>  <li>Honeywell anticipates integrating the US Digital Designs into the Fire and Connected Life Safety systems business and expanding the line of solutions for public safety communications.</li>  <li>\"Integrating US Digital Designs' fire station alerting capabilities with Honeywell's Connected Life Safety Services will allow us to eliminate manual processes and significantly reduce response time,\" said Doug Wright, CEO of Honeywell Building Technologies.</li>  <li>Honeywell held&nbsp;cash and cash equivalents of .1 billion&nbsp;as of September 30, 2021.</li>  <li>This acquisition does not affect Honeywell's financial guidance and is expected to close in 1Q22.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;HON shares closed lower by 0.28% at $209.23 on&nbsp;Monday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>霍尼韦尔国际公司</b>（纳斯达克：HON）同意以全现金交易的方式收购私人控股的 US Digital Designs, Inc.，购买倍数约为 14 倍 EBITDA。交易条款未披露。</li><li>总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩的 US Digital Designs 提供警报和调度通信解决方案，提高急救人员的效率并加快应急响应时间。</li><li>美国数字设计公司的 EBITDA 利润率对霍尼韦尔来说是增值的。霍尼韦尔预计到第五年将实现超过25%的投资回报率。</li><li>霍尼韦尔预计将美国数字设计整合到消防和互联生命安全系统业务中，并扩大公共安全通信解决方案系列。</li><li>霍尼韦尔建筑技术公司首席执行官道格·赖特 (Doug Wright) 表示：“将 US Digital Designs 的消防站警报功能与霍尼韦尔的互联生命安全服务相结合，将使我们能够消除手动流程并显着缩短响应时间。”</li><li>截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日，霍尼韦尔持有现金和现金等价物 10 亿美元。</li><li>此次收购不会影响霍尼韦尔的财务指引，预计将在2022年第一季度完成。</li><li><b>价格行为：</b>HON 股价周一收盘下跌 0.28%，至 209.23 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Honeywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将以未公开的金额收购美国数字设计公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoneywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将以未公开的金额收购美国数字设计公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-14 11:37</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Honeywell International Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ: HON)&nbsp;agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs,&nbsp;Inc., for a purchase multiple of ~14X EBITDA in an all-cash transaction. Deal terms not disclosed.</li>  <li>Tempe, Arizona-based US Digital Designs delivers alerting and dispatch communications solutions, enhancing first responders' efficacy and enabling faster emergency response times.</li>  <li>US Digital Designs' EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell. Honeywell expects to achieve a greater than 25% return on investment by the fifth year.</li>  <li>Honeywell anticipates integrating the US Digital Designs into the Fire and Connected Life Safety systems business and expanding the line of solutions for public safety communications.</li>  <li>\"Integrating US Digital Designs' fire station alerting capabilities with Honeywell's Connected Life Safety Services will allow us to eliminate manual processes and significantly reduce response time,\" said Doug Wright, CEO of Honeywell Building Technologies.</li>  <li>Honeywell held&nbsp;cash and cash equivalents of .1 billion&nbsp;as of September 30, 2021.</li>  <li>This acquisition does not affect Honeywell's financial guidance and is expected to close in 1Q22.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;HON shares closed lower by 0.28% at $209.23 on&nbsp;Monday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>霍尼韦尔国际公司</b>（纳斯达克：HON）同意以全现金交易的方式收购私人控股的 US Digital Designs, Inc.，购买倍数约为 14 倍 EBITDA。交易条款未披露。</li><li>总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩的 US Digital Designs 提供警报和调度通信解决方案，提高急救人员的效率并加快应急响应时间。</li><li>美国数字设计公司的 EBITDA 利润率对霍尼韦尔来说是增值的。霍尼韦尔预计到第五年将实现超过25%的投资回报率。</li><li>霍尼韦尔预计将美国数字设计整合到消防和互联生命安全系统业务中，并扩大公共安全通信解决方案系列。</li><li>霍尼韦尔建筑技术公司首席执行官道格·赖特 (Doug Wright) 表示：“将 US Digital Designs 的消防站警报功能与霍尼韦尔的互联生命安全服务相结合，将使我们能够消除手动流程并显着缩短响应时间。”</li><li>截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日，霍尼韦尔持有现金和现金等价物 10 亿美元。</li><li>此次收购不会影响霍尼韦尔的财务指引，预计将在2022年第一季度完成。</li><li><b>价格行为：</b>HON 股价周一收盘下跌 0.28%，至 209.23 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DLR":"数字房地产信托公司","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4206":"工业集团企业","BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","HON":"霍尼韦尔","BK4529":"IDC概念"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191098756","content_text":"Honeywell International Inc (NASDAQ: HON) agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs, Inc., for a purchase multiple of ~14X EBITDA in an all-cash transaction. Deal terms not disclosed.\nTempe, Arizona-based US Digital Designs delivers alerting and dispatch communications solutions, enhancing first responders' efficacy and enabling faster emergency response times.\nUS Digital Designs' EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell. Honeywell expects to achieve a greater than 25% return on investment by the fifth year.\nHoneywell anticipates integrating the US Digital Designs into the Fire and Connected Life Safety systems business and expanding the line of solutions for public safety communications.\n\"Integrating US Digital Designs' fire station alerting capabilities with Honeywell's Connected Life Safety Services will allow us to eliminate manual processes and significantly reduce response time,\" said Doug Wright, CEO of Honeywell Building Technologies.\nHoneywell held cash and cash equivalents of .1 billion as of September 30, 2021.\nThis acquisition does not affect Honeywell's financial guidance and is expected to close in 1Q22.\nPrice Action: HON shares closed lower by 0.28% at $209.23 on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DLR":0.9,"HON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018333,"gmtCreate":1639456451982,"gmtModify":1639464825696,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Shut up","listText":"Shut up","text":"Shut up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018333","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604817390,"gmtCreate":1639369427112,"gmtModify":1639369427470,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604817390","repostId":"1171394291","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171394291","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639366890,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171394291?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果 3 万亿美元的市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171394291","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech","content":"<p>As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech stalwart that is on the brink of a milestone that no other company in history has achieved: Apple.</p><p><blockquote>当许多公司开始为圣诞节和新年假期做准备时，仍有一家科技巨头正处于历史上没有其他公司达到的里程碑的边缘：苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most-iconic of all tech companies stands a good chance of reaching $3 trillion in market capitalization this week. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)finished Friday with a valuation of $2.944 trillion, so all Wall Street needs to do now is add $56 billion to the iPhone maker's stock value and Apple (AAPL) will stand alone in the $3 trillion club.</p><p><blockquote>所有科技公司中最具标志性的公司本周市值很有可能达到 3 万亿美元。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘估值为 2.944 万亿美元，因此华尔街现在需要做的就是为这家 iPhone 制造商的股票价值增加 560 亿美元，苹果 (AAPL) 将在 3 万亿美元俱乐部中独树一帜。</blockquote></p><p> To put that amount in some perspective, Apple (AAPL) became the first company to hit $1 trillion in market cap in 2018--or, 42 years after Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple (AAPL) in a garage in Cupertino, Calif. It then took Apple just until 2020 to reach $2 trillion in market cap. Right now, the only other company worth more than $2 trillion is Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), which ended last week with a market cap of $2.57 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>从某种意义上说，苹果 (AAPL) 在 2018 年成为第一家市值达到 1 万亿美元的公司，也就是史蒂夫·乔布斯 (Steve Jobs) 和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克 (Steve Wozniak) 在加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的一个车库里创立了苹果 (AAPL) 42 年后。直到2020年，苹果的市值才达到2万亿美元。目前，唯一一家市值超过 2 万亿美元的公司是微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT），该公司上周结束时市值为 2.57 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Street is starting to better appreciate the robust fundamental story into 2022 for [Apple Chief Executive] Tim Cook &amp; Co.,\" said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a research note on Sunday. \"Hitting $3 trillion is another watershed moment for Apple as the company continues to prove the doubters wrong with the renaissance of growth story playing out in Cupertino.\"</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹·艾夫斯 (Dan Ives) 在周日的一份研究报告中表示：“华尔街开始更好地欣赏[苹果首席执行官]蒂姆·库克公司 (Tim Cook &amp; Co.) 到 2022 年强劲的基本面故事。”“达到 3 万亿美元是苹果的另一个分水岭时刻，该公司继续通过库比蒂诺上演的增长复兴故事证明怀疑者是错误的。”</blockquote></p><p> While Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to be the biggest source of the company's strength--iPhones accounted for almost $39 billion of Apple's $83.4 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter sales--Ives said the \"linchpin\" of Apple's (AAPL) growing valuation is its services business.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果 (AAPL) 的 iPhone 销量仍然是该公司实力的最大来源——iPhone 占苹果第四财季 834 亿美元销售额的近 390 亿美元——但艾夫斯表示，苹果 (AAPL) 不断增长的估值是其服务业务。</blockquote></p><p> Services, which include items such as sales from the App Store and subscriptions to everything from Apple TV+ to iCloud storage plans, brought in $18.3 billion in revenue in Apple's (AAPL) most-recent quarter. Ives estimates that Apple's (AAPL) services business&nbsp;\"is worth $1.5 trillion in the eyes of the Street,\" and is benefiting from being coupled with a hardware ecosystem that \"is in the midst of its strongest product cycle in over a decade, led by iPhone 13.\"</p><p><blockquote>服务包括 App Store 的销售以及从苹果 TV+ 到 iCloud 存储计划的订阅等项目，在苹果 (AAPL) 最近一个季度带来了 183 亿美元的收入。艾夫斯估计，苹果 (AAPL) 的服务业务“在华尔街眼中价值 1.5 万亿美元”，并受益于与硬件生态系统的结合，该生态系统“正处于十多年来最强劲的产品周期中，以 iPhone 13 为首。”</blockquote></p><p> Even issues related to component supplies that could impede Apple's (AAPL) path toward a market cap for $3 trillion or more are likely to be little more than minor speedbumps for the company to overcome, in Ives opinion.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，即使是可能阻碍苹果 (AAPL) 市值达到 3 万亿美元或以上的零部件供应相关问题，也可能只是该公司需要克服的小障碍。</blockquote></p><p> \"Supply shortages of roughly 15 million iPhone units globally remain an issue that should moderate into early 2022,\" Ives said. \"Importantly, the underlying demand story is our focus into 2022 and we believe is the ultimate driver of the stock going forward.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“全球约 1500 万部 iPhone 的供应短缺仍然是一个问题，到 2022 年初应该会有所缓解。”“重要的是，潜在的需求故事是我们 2022 年的重点，我们相信这是该股未来的最终驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives estimates that Apple (AAPL) will sell more than 40 million iPhones during the end-of-the-year holiday season, and that China alone is set to see 15 million upgrades to the iPhone 13 during the quarter that concludes at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯估计，苹果 (AAPL) 在年底假期期间将销售超过 4000 万部 iPhone，在截至 12 月底的季度中，仅中国大陆就将出现 1500 万部 iPhone 13 升级。</blockquote></p><p> Along with the iPhone, Ives said many signs point toward Apple (AAPL) rolling out its first augmented reality [AR] glasses by the summer of 2022, and that move could add $20 a share to the company's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also recently said that Apple (AAPL) should see success with its AR glasses due to its long-time&nbsp;track record of entering consumer markets with successful new products.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示，除了 iPhone，许多迹象表明苹果 (AAPL) 将在 2022 年夏季推出首款增强现实 [AR] 眼镜，此举可能会使该公司每股估值增加 20 美元。摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 最近也表示，苹果 (AAPL) 的 AR 眼镜应该会取得成功，因为它长期以来有着以成功的新产品进入消费市场的记录。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果 3 万亿美元的市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果 3 万亿美元的市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech stalwart that is on the brink of a milestone that no other company in history has achieved: Apple.</p><p><blockquote>当许多公司开始为圣诞节和新年假期做准备时，仍有一家科技巨头正处于历史上没有其他公司达到的里程碑的边缘：苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most-iconic of all tech companies stands a good chance of reaching $3 trillion in market capitalization this week. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)finished Friday with a valuation of $2.944 trillion, so all Wall Street needs to do now is add $56 billion to the iPhone maker's stock value and Apple (AAPL) will stand alone in the $3 trillion club.</p><p><blockquote>所有科技公司中最具标志性的公司本周市值很有可能达到 3 万亿美元。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘估值为 2.944 万亿美元，因此华尔街现在需要做的就是为这家 iPhone 制造商的股票价值增加 560 亿美元，苹果 (AAPL) 将在 3 万亿美元俱乐部中独树一帜。</blockquote></p><p> To put that amount in some perspective, Apple (AAPL) became the first company to hit $1 trillion in market cap in 2018--or, 42 years after Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple (AAPL) in a garage in Cupertino, Calif. It then took Apple just until 2020 to reach $2 trillion in market cap. Right now, the only other company worth more than $2 trillion is Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), which ended last week with a market cap of $2.57 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>从某种意义上说，苹果 (AAPL) 在 2018 年成为第一家市值达到 1 万亿美元的公司，也就是史蒂夫·乔布斯 (Steve Jobs) 和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克 (Steve Wozniak) 在加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的一个车库里创立了苹果 (AAPL) 42 年后。直到2020年，苹果的市值才达到2万亿美元。目前，唯一一家市值超过 2 万亿美元的公司是微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT），该公司上周结束时市值为 2.57 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Street is starting to better appreciate the robust fundamental story into 2022 for [Apple Chief Executive] Tim Cook &amp; Co.,\" said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a research note on Sunday. \"Hitting $3 trillion is another watershed moment for Apple as the company continues to prove the doubters wrong with the renaissance of growth story playing out in Cupertino.\"</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹·艾夫斯 (Dan Ives) 在周日的一份研究报告中表示：“华尔街开始更好地欣赏[苹果首席执行官]蒂姆·库克公司 (Tim Cook &amp; Co.) 到 2022 年强劲的基本面故事。”“达到 3 万亿美元是苹果的另一个分水岭时刻，该公司继续通过库比蒂诺上演的增长复兴故事证明怀疑者是错误的。”</blockquote></p><p> While Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to be the biggest source of the company's strength--iPhones accounted for almost $39 billion of Apple's $83.4 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter sales--Ives said the \"linchpin\" of Apple's (AAPL) growing valuation is its services business.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果 (AAPL) 的 iPhone 销量仍然是该公司实力的最大来源——iPhone 占苹果第四财季 834 亿美元销售额的近 390 亿美元——但艾夫斯表示，苹果 (AAPL) 不断增长的估值是其服务业务。</blockquote></p><p> Services, which include items such as sales from the App Store and subscriptions to everything from Apple TV+ to iCloud storage plans, brought in $18.3 billion in revenue in Apple's (AAPL) most-recent quarter. Ives estimates that Apple's (AAPL) services business&nbsp;\"is worth $1.5 trillion in the eyes of the Street,\" and is benefiting from being coupled with a hardware ecosystem that \"is in the midst of its strongest product cycle in over a decade, led by iPhone 13.\"</p><p><blockquote>服务包括 App Store 的销售以及从苹果 TV+ 到 iCloud 存储计划的订阅等项目，在苹果 (AAPL) 最近一个季度带来了 183 亿美元的收入。艾夫斯估计，苹果 (AAPL) 的服务业务“在华尔街眼中价值 1.5 万亿美元”，并受益于与硬件生态系统的结合，该生态系统“正处于十多年来最强劲的产品周期中，以 iPhone 13 为首。”</blockquote></p><p> Even issues related to component supplies that could impede Apple's (AAPL) path toward a market cap for $3 trillion or more are likely to be little more than minor speedbumps for the company to overcome, in Ives opinion.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，即使是可能阻碍苹果 (AAPL) 市值达到 3 万亿美元或以上的零部件供应相关问题，也可能只是该公司需要克服的小障碍。</blockquote></p><p> \"Supply shortages of roughly 15 million iPhone units globally remain an issue that should moderate into early 2022,\" Ives said. \"Importantly, the underlying demand story is our focus into 2022 and we believe is the ultimate driver of the stock going forward.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“全球约 1500 万部 iPhone 的供应短缺仍然是一个问题，到 2022 年初应该会有所缓解。”“重要的是，潜在的需求故事是我们 2022 年的重点，我们相信这是该股未来的最终驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives estimates that Apple (AAPL) will sell more than 40 million iPhones during the end-of-the-year holiday season, and that China alone is set to see 15 million upgrades to the iPhone 13 during the quarter that concludes at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯估计，苹果 (AAPL) 在年底假期期间将销售超过 4000 万部 iPhone，在截至 12 月底的季度中，仅中国大陆就将出现 1500 万部 iPhone 13 升级。</blockquote></p><p> Along with the iPhone, Ives said many signs point toward Apple (AAPL) rolling out its first augmented reality [AR] glasses by the summer of 2022, and that move could add $20 a share to the company's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also recently said that Apple (AAPL) should see success with its AR glasses due to its long-time&nbsp;track record of entering consumer markets with successful new products.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示，除了 iPhone，许多迹象表明苹果 (AAPL) 将在 2022 年夏季推出首款增强现实 [AR] 眼镜，此举可能会使该公司每股估值增加 20 美元。摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 最近也表示，苹果 (AAPL) 的 AR 眼镜应该会取得成功，因为它长期以来有着以成功的新产品进入消费市场的记录。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779362-apple-nearing-watershed-moment-of-3-trillion-in-market-cap\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779362-apple-nearing-watershed-moment-of-3-trillion-in-market-cap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171394291","content_text":"As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech stalwart that is on the brink of a milestone that no other company in history has achieved: Apple.\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nThe most-iconic of all tech companies stands a good chance of reaching $3 trillion in market capitalization this week. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)finished Friday with a valuation of $2.944 trillion, so all Wall Street needs to do now is add $56 billion to the iPhone maker's stock value and Apple (AAPL) will stand alone in the $3 trillion club.\nTo put that amount in some perspective, Apple (AAPL) became the first company to hit $1 trillion in market cap in 2018--or, 42 years after Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple (AAPL) in a garage in Cupertino, Calif. It then took Apple just until 2020 to reach $2 trillion in market cap. Right now, the only other company worth more than $2 trillion is Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), which ended last week with a market cap of $2.57 trillion.\n\"The Street is starting to better appreciate the robust fundamental story into 2022 for [Apple Chief Executive] Tim Cook & Co.,\" said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a research note on Sunday. \"Hitting $3 trillion is another watershed moment for Apple as the company continues to prove the doubters wrong with the renaissance of growth story playing out in Cupertino.\"\nWhile Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to be the biggest source of the company's strength--iPhones accounted for almost $39 billion of Apple's $83.4 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter sales--Ives said the \"linchpin\" of Apple's (AAPL) growing valuation is its services business.\nServices, which include items such as sales from the App Store and subscriptions to everything from Apple TV+ to iCloud storage plans, brought in $18.3 billion in revenue in Apple's (AAPL) most-recent quarter. Ives estimates that Apple's (AAPL) services business \"is worth $1.5 trillion in the eyes of the Street,\" and is benefiting from being coupled with a hardware ecosystem that \"is in the midst of its strongest product cycle in over a decade, led by iPhone 13.\"\nEven issues related to component supplies that could impede Apple's (AAPL) path toward a market cap for $3 trillion or more are likely to be little more than minor speedbumps for the company to overcome, in Ives opinion.\n\"Supply shortages of roughly 15 million iPhone units globally remain an issue that should moderate into early 2022,\" Ives said. \"Importantly, the underlying demand story is our focus into 2022 and we believe is the ultimate driver of the stock going forward.\"\nIves estimates that Apple (AAPL) will sell more than 40 million iPhones during the end-of-the-year holiday season, and that China alone is set to see 15 million upgrades to the iPhone 13 during the quarter that concludes at the end of December.\nAlong with the iPhone, Ives said many signs point toward Apple (AAPL) rolling out its first augmented reality [AR] glasses by the summer of 2022, and that move could add $20 a share to the company's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also recently said that Apple (AAPL) should see success with its AR glasses due to its long-time track record of entering consumer markets with successful new products.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604814765,"gmtCreate":1639369380168,"gmtModify":1639369380550,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604814765","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期调整可能尚未结束。</li><li>尽管存在短期调整潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储的宽松货币立场可能比许多人预期的更早面临严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对股市熊市有着完美的记录。过去 170 年的每一次 NBER 衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期的后期阶段并不意味着股票处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展良好。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。其他历来可靠的领先指标尚未预示着经济衰退即将到来。在上一份报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。最常见的情况是，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市达到峰值。同样，收益率曲线尚未出现衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，股市从 12 月初的最新高点回调了 5%-10%。正如我们 11 月中旬在 Seeking Alpha 上发表的文章所解释的那样，这种下降并不奇怪，因为市场正在火爆。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现 5%-10% 的调整。尽管如此，修正可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期阶段可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前的环境可能对央行来说极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年高出20%以上。这是自 70 年代以来该指数的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个记录两位数通货膨胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。不仅商品因供应短缺而变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是一个肇事逃逸的事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从 11 月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500是12月6日低点的延伸领先对角线。这是短期调整可能尚未结束的信号。该模式可能会转变为朝向 4250-4390 的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据表明，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R 将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一站。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变得糟糕之前提供进一步的暗示。底线是，尽管短期有进一步修正的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能保持不变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期调整可能尚未结束。</li><li>尽管存在短期调整潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储的宽松货币立场可能比许多人预期的更早面临严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对股市熊市有着完美的记录。过去 170 年的每一次 NBER 衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期的后期阶段并不意味着股票处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展良好。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。其他历来可靠的领先指标尚未预示着经济衰退即将到来。在上一份报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。最常见的情况是，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市达到峰值。同样，收益率曲线尚未出现衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，股市从 12 月初的最新高点回调了 5%-10%。正如我们 11 月中旬在 Seeking Alpha 上发表的文章所解释的那样，这种下降并不奇怪，因为市场正在火爆。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现 5%-10% 的调整。尽管如此，修正可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期阶段可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前的环境可能对央行来说极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年高出20%以上。这是自 70 年代以来该指数的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个记录两位数通货膨胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。不仅商品因供应短缺而变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是一个肇事逃逸的事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从 11 月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500是12月6日低点的延伸领先对角线。这是短期调整可能尚未结束的信号。该模式可能会转变为朝向 4250-4390 的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据表明，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R 将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一站。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变得糟糕之前提供进一步的暗示。底线是，尽管短期有进一步修正的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能保持不变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604814510,"gmtCreate":1639369359314,"gmtModify":1639369359698,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604814510","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要活动将是美联储利率制定委员会 2021 年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但将包括周二的金宝汤；Lenner、埃森哲、联邦快递、Rivian Automotive 和 Adobe 周四；周五的达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的 11 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计总体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都将大致与 10 月份的生产者通胀率持平。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他数据还包括周二公布的全国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Businesses）的情绪指数、周三公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）的 11 月份零售销售支出以及周四公布的 11 月份房屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/13星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill 和 PHX Minerals 在评级举办盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Campbell Soup、Barnes Group 和 Avaya Holdings 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了11月份的生产者价格指数。普遍预计环比上涨 0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心 PPI 将上涨 0.4%。相比之下，10 月份分别增长了 0.6% 和 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5000名小企业主。看涨期权的预期读数为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/15星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束为期两天的会议，政策制定者将讨论加快逐步减少每月证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>11月份进出口价格数据。预计出口价格将环比上涨 0.5%，而进口价格将上涨 0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 1.5% 和 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商发布了12月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11 月份零售支出报告。经季节性调整后，预计零售额环比增长 0.7%，而 10 月份为 1.7%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.8%，而上一时期为 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、埃森哲、联邦快递、捷普、Adobe、Rivian汽车和诺信等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。经季节性调整后的新屋开工率预计为156.3万套，而10月份为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开始计算。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继 10 月份上涨 1.6% 之后，经济学家预计上涨 0.6%。产能利用率预计为 76.8%，与 10 月份的 76.4% 大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/17星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants 和 Quanex Building Products 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要活动将是美联储利率制定委员会 2021 年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但将包括周二的金宝汤；Lenner、埃森哲、联邦快递、Rivian Automotive 和 Adobe 周四；周五的达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的 11 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计总体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都将大致与 10 月份的生产者通胀率持平。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他数据还包括周二公布的全国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Businesses）的情绪指数、周三公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）的 11 月份零售销售支出以及周四公布的 11 月份房屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/13星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill 和 PHX Minerals 在评级举办盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Campbell Soup、Barnes Group 和 Avaya Holdings 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了11月份的生产者价格指数。普遍预计环比上涨 0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心 PPI 将上涨 0.4%。相比之下，10 月份分别增长了 0.6% 和 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5000名小企业主。看涨期权的预期读数为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/15星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束为期两天的会议，政策制定者将讨论加快逐步减少每月证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>11月份进出口价格数据。预计出口价格将环比上涨 0.5%，而进口价格将上涨 0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 1.5% 和 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商发布了12月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11 月份零售支出报告。经季节性调整后，预计零售额环比增长 0.7%，而 10 月份为 1.7%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.8%，而上一时期为 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、埃森哲、联邦快递、捷普、Adobe、Rivian汽车和诺信等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。经季节性调整后的新屋开工率预计为156.3万套，而10月份为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开始计算。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继 10 月份上涨 1.6% 之后，经济学家预计上涨 0.6%。产能利用率预计为 76.8%，与 10 月份的 76.4% 大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/17星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants 和 Quanex Building Products 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","CPB":"金宝汤","HEI":"海科航空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","DRI":"达登饭店","ACN":"埃森哲","ADBE":"Adobe","FDX":"联邦快递","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LEN":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"JILL":0.9,"HEI":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"PHX":0.9,"AVYA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FDX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DRI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604030772,"gmtCreate":1639277529843,"gmtModify":1639277530228,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sure bo","listText":"Sure bo","text":"Sure 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605557917","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605397069,"gmtCreate":1639110163453,"gmtModify":1639110164921,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605397069","repostId":"1185791394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185791394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639108779,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185791394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir 的股票可能会下跌，但绝对不会下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185791394","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination","content":"<p><div> There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination for a company to thrive in 2021. But Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) has defied that way of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>有一种观点认为，人工智能和网络安全是公司在 2021 年蓬勃发展的双赢组合。但 Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）却挑战了这种方式……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir 的股票可能会下跌，但绝对不会下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir 的股票可能会下跌，但绝对不会下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination for a company to thrive in 2021. But Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) has defied that way of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>有一种观点认为，人工智能和网络安全是公司在 2021 年蓬勃发展的双赢组合。但 Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）却挑战了这种方式……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185791394","content_text":"There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination for a company to thrive in 2021. But Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) has defied that way of thinking as of late. PLTR stock has been a major disappointment for investors so far this year.\nSince hitting an all-time high of $45 in late January, shares of the big data analytics company are down roughly 57%. In the past month alone, PLTR stock is down nearly 28%.\nThat includes the post-earnings sell-off following the company’s third-quarter report, despite Palantir beating revenue expectations and delivering a strong outlook for the current quarter.\nCan PLTR stock turn its fortunes around in 2022? Let’s take a closer look.\nPalantir at a Glance\nFounded by Peter Thiel in 2003, Palantir Technologies went public via a direct listing in September 2020 and currently has a market cap of $38.8 billion. The company is headquartered in Denver and actually gets its name from J. R. R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings series.“Palantiri” were magical and indestructible crystal balls that were used to communicate and see other parts of that fabled world.\nWhat Palantir does isn’t magical, but it is pretty cool. Palantir’s software allows government and private sector businesses to analyze and manage massive amounts of data, detecting meaningful patterns and connections. Its data sets are considered to be highly secure compared to its peers, which is why the company is sometimes considered a cybersecurity play.\nSome of Palantir’s first clients were U.S. intelligence agencies and the Pentagon. Over the past few years, the company has been growing its client base to include private firms, other federal agencies, and some state and local governments. For example, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services uses Palantir software to track vaccine distribution.\nPalantir Delivers a Strong Q3 Earnings Report\nThe company’s third-quarter earnings report should have been a positive for PLTR stock. Palantir posted $392 million in revenue, while analysts had expected only $385 million. Earnings of 4 cents per share met expectations.\nRevenue was up 36% from the same quarter a year ago. However, some investors may have been disappointed as the previous two quarters saw 49% year-over-year growth.\nFor the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to increase 30% to $418 million, which was ahead of the consensus estimate of $402 million. Palantir projects full-year revenue of $1.53 billion, which would be a year-over-year increase of 40%. Through 2025, management believes it can grow revenue at least 30% annually.\nThe company used its earnings call to promote its new platform, Apollo, which it described as a new continuous delivery system that brings software-as-a-service (SaaS) management to its platforms. COO Shyam Sankar stated:\n\n Once again, we are building five years ahead of the market, software shamans building technology that will meet its moment. With our latest investments, you will be able to develop streaming pipelines in Foundry that you then package up, version, and continuously deploy to Edge compute infrastructure, be it a Humvee, a satellite, a 5G base station to enable real-time processing of large amounts of data in a decentralized efficient manner. These pipelines, they’ll be versioned, upgrade, managed, and orchestrated by Apollo.\n\nDespite the revenue beat and the promotion of the Apollo platform, PLTR stock fell by more than 9% immediately after the earnings report. And it has continued lower ever since. Some of that slide can be attributed to the market’s drag on tech stocks. But investors also appear concerned that Palantir is seeing slower growth.\nKeep an Eye on Recent Announcements\nWhile growth is slowing, investors should be cheered by a series of announcements that came out recently. These include:\n\nPalantir and Merck KGaA announced a partnership to address the global semiconductor shortage. The companies are developing an AI-infused platform that will help firms navigate the supply chain and reduce time to market.\nPalantir and Babylon Holdings(NYSE:BBLN) announced“substantial progress”on their work to use data to improve clinical care for Babylon’s healthcare clients.\nPalantir won a$43 million federal government contract with the Space Command’s Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise.\nPalantir and Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI) announced a multi-year deal in which Kinder Morgan will use Palantir’s platform to support its infrastructure and improve data analysis, grid integrity and pricing.\n\nAnd those are just the announcements from the past week or so. I expect similar headlines to continue to roll in.\nThe Bottom Line on PLTR Stock\nPLTR stock made a huge run higher into early January but has been struggling ever since. However, if you’re looking for a long-term cybersecurity and AI play, this is a solid pick. You’ll just have to be patient.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605394411,"gmtCreate":1639110154754,"gmtModify":1639110156108,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605394411","repostId":"2190964556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602299097,"gmtCreate":1639023359114,"gmtModify":1639023359482,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogogogogogo","listText":"Gogogogogogogo","text":"Gogogogogogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602299097","repostId":"2189695656","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602207425,"gmtCreate":1639023220909,"gmtModify":1639023221208,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602207425","repostId":"2190694645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602207240,"gmtCreate":1639023206652,"gmtModify":1639023206992,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pwr","listText":"Pwr","text":"Pwr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602207240","repostId":"2190693325","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":866706286,"gmtCreate":1632801945445,"gmtModify":1632801945541,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866706286","repostId":"1129085736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129085736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632800151,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129085736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129085736","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould inve","content":"<p>  <b>Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</b>  Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会走弱。</b>投资者是否应该担心 “总统大选周期 ”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答是 “是的”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的时期。</blockquote></p><p> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.</p><p><blockquote>自 1896 年道琼斯道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.21%）创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出 9 个百分点以上。</blockquote></p><p> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这一结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的业绩差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数成立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年有一半以上的时间里，美国基准指数实际上都在上涨。此外，正如随附的图表所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨——平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在根据假定的第二年总统任期疲软做出任何投资决策之前，我们至少需要更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History of the presidential election cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总统选举周期的历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.</p><p><blockquote>总统选举周期基于一个无可争议的概念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们会在任期初期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统大选到来时经济能够蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.</p><p><blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只有松散的一致性。下表报告了道琼斯指数自 1896 年创建以来和 1940 年以来的年平均值。之所以选择后一年，是因为总统权力在 20 世纪 30 年代大幅增长，从而增强了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最差的，但在统计学家确定模式是否真实时经常使用的 95% 置信水平下，其平均回报率与其他三年的平均回报率之间的差异并不显著。事实上，四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的是第三年。</blockquote></p><p> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果基于截至 9 月 30 日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期的其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Midterm election and stock prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中期选举与股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>否则这将是故事的结尾，但对于研究人员最近记录的另一个季节模式来说。事实证明，中期选举前的半年是股市特别疲软的时期，而之后的半年则特别强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校金融学名誉教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将中期选举前股市的疲软归因于选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的强势可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote></p><p> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.</p><p><blockquote>他们的理论在衡量政治来源的经济不确定性的经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中有经验支持。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月中下降同样多。</blockquote></p><p> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种中期选举前后的模式持续下去，股市要到明年春天--总统大选年周期的第二年过半时才能走强。与此同时，股市仍有可能表现出疲软。但如果是这样，那也不是因为我们所处的周期。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</b>  Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会走弱。</b>投资者是否应该担心 “总统大选周期 ”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答是 “是的”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的时期。</blockquote></p><p> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.</p><p><blockquote>自 1896 年道琼斯道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.21%）创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出 9 个百分点以上。</blockquote></p><p> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这一结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的业绩差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数成立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年有一半以上的时间里，美国基准指数实际上都在上涨。此外，正如随附的图表所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨——平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在根据假定的第二年总统任期疲软做出任何投资决策之前，我们至少需要更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History of the presidential election cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总统选举周期的历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.</p><p><blockquote>总统选举周期基于一个无可争议的概念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们会在任期初期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统大选到来时经济能够蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.</p><p><blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只有松散的一致性。下表报告了道琼斯指数自 1896 年创建以来和 1940 年以来的年平均值。之所以选择后一年，是因为总统权力在 20 世纪 30 年代大幅增长，从而增强了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最差的，但在统计学家确定模式是否真实时经常使用的 95% 置信水平下，其平均回报率与其他三年的平均回报率之间的差异并不显著。事实上，四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的是第三年。</blockquote></p><p> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果基于截至 9 月 30 日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期的其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Midterm election and stock prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中期选举与股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>否则这将是故事的结尾，但对于研究人员最近记录的另一个季节模式来说。事实证明，中期选举前的半年是股市特别疲软的时期，而之后的半年则特别强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校金融学名誉教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将中期选举前股市的疲软归因于选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的强势可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote></p><p> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.</p><p><blockquote>他们的理论在衡量政治来源的经济不确定性的经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中有经验支持。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月中下降同样多。</blockquote></p><p> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种中期选举前后的模式持续下去，股市要到明年春天--总统大选年周期的第二年过半时才能走强。与此同时，股市仍有可能表现出疲软。但如果是这样，那也不是因为我们所处的周期。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129085736","content_text":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\nSince the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.\nThis result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.\n\nAt a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.\nHistory of the presidential election cycle\nThe presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.\nAs many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.\n\nThough second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.\nThese results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.\nMidterm election and stock prices\nThis would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.\nThis pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.\nThe researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.\nTheir theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.\nTo the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603275210,"gmtCreate":1638419943092,"gmtModify":1638419943708,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603275210","repostId":"1171217212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171217212","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638416856,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171217212?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 11:47","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划将香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171217212","media":"IFR","summary":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share, according to IFR.","content":"<p>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to&nbsp;IFR.</p><p><blockquote>根据国际财务报告准则，微博计划将香港上市定价为每股272.80港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划将香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWeibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划将香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IFR</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-02 11:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to&nbsp;IFR.</p><p><blockquote>根据国际财务报告准则，微博计划将香港上市定价为每股272.80港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.ifre.com/story/3164593/weibo-plans-to-price-hk-listing-at-hk27280-per-share-rnhybgnjwr\">IFR</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09898":"微博-SW","WB":"微博"},"source_url":"https://www.ifre.com/story/3164593/weibo-plans-to-price-hk-listing-at-hk27280-per-share-rnhybgnjwr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171217212","content_text":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per 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