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2021-07-21

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2021-07-20

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2021-07-16

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2021-07-15

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Biggest U.S. banks smash profit estimates as economy revives<blockquote>随着经济复苏，美国最大银行打破利润预期</blockquote>

2021-07-14

Hahaha

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2021-07-12

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2021-07-09

Lol

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2021-07-07

Haha

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2021-07-06

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-07-06

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-07-06

大家好

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2021-07-05

Lol

What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>

2021-07-03

Latest

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2021-06-29

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2021-06-28

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-23

Lates

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2021-06-21

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Nomura Warns Of Market "Reversal Risk" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170476551","repostId":"2151500861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147166656,"gmtCreate":1626342551875,"gmtModify":1631893828102,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582687913455140","authorIdStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147166656","repostId":"1142984811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142984811","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626337623,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142984811?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biggest U.S. banks smash profit estimates as economy revives<blockquote>随着经济复苏，美国最大银行打破利润预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142984811","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, July 14 (Reuters) - The four largest U.S. consumer banks posted blockbuster second-quart","content":"<p>WASHINGTON, July 14 (Reuters) - The four largest U.S. consumer banks posted blockbuster second-quarter results this week, after pandemic loan losses failed to materialize and the U.S. economy began roaring back to life.</p><p><blockquote>路透华盛顿 7 月 14 日 - 美国四大消费银行本周公布了重磅第二季度业绩，此前疫情贷款损失未能实现，美国经济开始复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo &amp; Co(WFC.N), Bank of America Corp(BAC.N), Citigroup Inc(C.N)and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co(JPM.N)posted a combined $33 billion in profits, buoyed by the release of $9 billion in reserves they had put aside last year to absorb feared pandemic losses.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行 (WFC.N)、美国银行 (BAC.N)、花旗集团 (C.N) 和摩根大通 (JPM.N) 公布的利润合计为 330 亿美元，这得益于释放 90 亿美元的储备金。他们去年留出来吸收担心的大流行损失。</blockquote></p><p> That was beyond analystestimatesof about $24 billion combined, compared with $6 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这超出了分析师估计的合计约 240 亿美元，而去年同期为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer spending has climbed, sometimes beyond pre-pandemic levels, while credit quality has improved and savings and investments have risen, the banks said.</p><p><blockquote>银行表示，消费者支出有所攀升，有时超过大流行前的水平，而信贷质量有所改善，储蓄和投资有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to extraordinary government stimulus and loan repayment holidays, feared pandemic losses have not materialized. A national vaccination roll-out has allowed also Americans get back to work and to start spending again.</p><p><blockquote>由于政府采取了非同寻常的刺激措施和贷款偿还假期，人们担心疫情的损失并未实现。全国疫苗接种的推广也让美国人能够重返工作岗位并重新开始消费。</blockquote></p><p> Sizzling capital markets activity has also helped the largest U.S. banks, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc(GS.N)reporting a $5.35 billion profit, more than double its adjusted earnings a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>火热的资本市场活动也帮助了美国最大的银行，高盛集团 (GS.N) 报告利润为 53.5 亿美元，是一年前调整后收益的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> \"The pace of the global recovery is exceeding earlier expectations and with it, consumer and corporate confidence is rising,\" Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席执行官简·弗雷泽表示：“全球复苏的步伐超出了此前的预期，消费者和企业信心也随之上升。”</blockquote></p><p> That was reflected in a pick-up in consumer lending.</p><p><blockquote>这反映在消费贷款的回升上。</blockquote></p><p> For example, JPMorgan said combined spending on its debit and credit cards rose 22% compared with the same quarter in 2019, when spending patterns were more normal.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根大通表示，与 2019 年同期相比，其借记卡和信用卡的总支出增长了 22%，当时支出模式更为正常。</blockquote></p><p> Spending on Citi-branded credit cards in the United States jumped 40% from a year earlier, but with so many customers paying off balances its card loans fell 4%.read more</p><p><blockquote>美国花旗品牌信用卡的支出较去年同期增长了 40%，但由于许多客户还清余额，其信用卡贷款下降了 4%。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said the bank expects more customers to go back to their pre-pandemic pattern of carrying revolving balances as government stimulus programs wind down later this year.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席财务官马克·梅森表示，随着政府刺激计划在今年晚些时候结束，该银行预计更多客户将恢复到大流行前的循环资产负债表模式。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo posted a 14% gain in credit-card revenue compared with the second quarter of 2020, due to higher point-of-sale volume. Revenue was up slightly on the first quarter, the bank said.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售点销量增加，富国银行公布信用卡收入较 2020 年第二季度增长 14%。该银行表示，第一季度收入略有增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"What we're seeing is people starting to spend and act more in a way that seems more like it was before the pandemic started and, certainly on the consumer side, spending is up quite a bit, even when you compare it to 2018,\" Wells Fargo chief financial officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行首席财务官迈克·桑托马西莫 (Mike Santomassimo) 告诉记者：“我们看到的是，人们开始增加更多的支出和行为，看起来更像大流行开始之前的情况，当然在消费者方面，支出也大幅增加。”</blockquote></p><p> While loan growth is still tepid, which is usually bad for bank profits, there were signs that demand is creeping back.</p><p><blockquote>尽管贷款增长仍然不温不火，这通常不利于银行利润，但有迹象表明需求正在缓慢回升。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding loans related to the U.S. government's pandemic aid program, loan balances at Bank of America, for example, grew $5.1 billion from the first quarter.read more</p><p><blockquote>例如，不包括与美国政府大流行援助计划相关的贷款，美国银行的贷款余额比第一季度增加了 51 亿美元。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> \"Deposit growth is strong, and loan levels have begun to grow,\" Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼汉在一份声明中表示：“存款增长强劲，贷款水平也开始增长。”</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan, the country's largest lender, on Tuesday reported profits of $11.9 billion compared with $4.7 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的银行摩根大通周二公布利润为 119 亿美元，而去年为 47 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup's second-quarter profit rose to $6.19 billion, up from $1.06 billion last year, while Bank of America's profit jumped to $8.96 billion from $3.28 billion.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团第二季度利润从去年的10.6亿美元升至61.9亿美元，美国银行利润从32.8亿美元跃升至89.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo posted a profit of $6 billion compared with a loss of $3.85 billion last year, which was largely related to special items.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行公布利润为 60 亿美元，而去年亏损 38.5 亿美元，这主要与特殊项目有关。</blockquote></p><p> While the results indicate good news for consumers and businesses, low interest rates, weak loan demand and a slowdown in trading will probably weigh on results going forward, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，虽然结果对消费者和企业来说是个好消息，但低利率、贷款需求疲软和贸易放缓可能会拖累未来的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. Federal Reserve is staying the course, with an inflation target of 2% and no plans to tighten monetary policy by, for instance, raising interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks for a congressional appearance on Wednesday.read more</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三在国会发表讲话时表示，美联储将坚持不懈，通胀目标为 2%，没有计划通过加息等方式收紧货币政策。阅读更多</blockquote></p><p> That suggests banks will have to deal with low rates for an extended period of time.</p><p><blockquote>这表明银行将不得不在较长时间内应对低利率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiggest U.S. banks smash profit estimates as economy revives<blockquote>随着经济复苏，美国最大银行打破利润预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, July 14 (Reuters) - The four largest U.S. consumer banks posted blockbuster second-quarter results this week, after pandemic loan losses failed to materialize and the U.S. economy began roaring back to life.</p><p><blockquote>路透华盛顿 7 月 14 日 - 美国四大消费银行本周公布了重磅第二季度业绩，此前疫情贷款损失未能实现，美国经济开始复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo &amp; Co(WFC.N), Bank of America Corp(BAC.N), Citigroup Inc(C.N)and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co(JPM.N)posted a combined $33 billion in profits, buoyed by the release of $9 billion in reserves they had put aside last year to absorb feared pandemic losses.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行 (WFC.N)、美国银行 (BAC.N)、花旗集团 (C.N) 和摩根大通 (JPM.N) 公布的利润合计为 330 亿美元，这得益于释放 90 亿美元的储备金。他们去年留出来吸收担心的大流行损失。</blockquote></p><p> That was beyond analystestimatesof about $24 billion combined, compared with $6 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这超出了分析师估计的合计约 240 亿美元，而去年同期为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer spending has climbed, sometimes beyond pre-pandemic levels, while credit quality has improved and savings and investments have risen, the banks said.</p><p><blockquote>银行表示，消费者支出有所攀升，有时超过大流行前的水平，而信贷质量有所改善，储蓄和投资有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to extraordinary government stimulus and loan repayment holidays, feared pandemic losses have not materialized. A national vaccination roll-out has allowed also Americans get back to work and to start spending again.</p><p><blockquote>由于政府采取了非同寻常的刺激措施和贷款偿还假期，人们担心疫情的损失并未实现。全国疫苗接种的推广也让美国人能够重返工作岗位并重新开始消费。</blockquote></p><p> Sizzling capital markets activity has also helped the largest U.S. banks, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc(GS.N)reporting a $5.35 billion profit, more than double its adjusted earnings a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>火热的资本市场活动也帮助了美国最大的银行，高盛集团 (GS.N) 报告利润为 53.5 亿美元，是一年前调整后收益的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> \"The pace of the global recovery is exceeding earlier expectations and with it, consumer and corporate confidence is rising,\" Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席执行官简·弗雷泽表示：“全球复苏的步伐超出了此前的预期，消费者和企业信心也随之上升。”</blockquote></p><p> That was reflected in a pick-up in consumer lending.</p><p><blockquote>这反映在消费贷款的回升上。</blockquote></p><p> For example, JPMorgan said combined spending on its debit and credit cards rose 22% compared with the same quarter in 2019, when spending patterns were more normal.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根大通表示，与 2019 年同期相比，其借记卡和信用卡的总支出增长了 22%，当时支出模式更为正常。</blockquote></p><p> Spending on Citi-branded credit cards in the United States jumped 40% from a year earlier, but with so many customers paying off balances its card loans fell 4%.read more</p><p><blockquote>美国花旗品牌信用卡的支出较去年同期增长了 40%，但由于许多客户还清余额，其信用卡贷款下降了 4%。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said the bank expects more customers to go back to their pre-pandemic pattern of carrying revolving balances as government stimulus programs wind down later this year.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团首席财务官马克·梅森表示，随着政府刺激计划在今年晚些时候结束，该银行预计更多客户将恢复到大流行前的循环资产负债表模式。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo posted a 14% gain in credit-card revenue compared with the second quarter of 2020, due to higher point-of-sale volume. Revenue was up slightly on the first quarter, the bank said.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售点销量增加，富国银行公布信用卡收入较 2020 年第二季度增长 14%。该银行表示，第一季度收入略有增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"What we're seeing is people starting to spend and act more in a way that seems more like it was before the pandemic started and, certainly on the consumer side, spending is up quite a bit, even when you compare it to 2018,\" Wells Fargo chief financial officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行首席财务官迈克·桑托马西莫 (Mike Santomassimo) 告诉记者：“我们看到的是，人们开始增加更多的支出和行为，看起来更像大流行开始之前的情况，当然在消费者方面，支出也大幅增加。”</blockquote></p><p> While loan growth is still tepid, which is usually bad for bank profits, there were signs that demand is creeping back.</p><p><blockquote>尽管贷款增长仍然不温不火，这通常不利于银行利润，但有迹象表明需求正在缓慢回升。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding loans related to the U.S. government's pandemic aid program, loan balances at Bank of America, for example, grew $5.1 billion from the first quarter.read more</p><p><blockquote>例如，不包括与美国政府大流行援助计划相关的贷款，美国银行的贷款余额比第一季度增加了 51 亿美元。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> \"Deposit growth is strong, and loan levels have begun to grow,\" Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼汉在一份声明中表示：“存款增长强劲，贷款水平也开始增长。”</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan, the country's largest lender, on Tuesday reported profits of $11.9 billion compared with $4.7 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的银行摩根大通周二公布利润为 119 亿美元，而去年为 47 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup's second-quarter profit rose to $6.19 billion, up from $1.06 billion last year, while Bank of America's profit jumped to $8.96 billion from $3.28 billion.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团第二季度利润从去年的10.6亿美元升至61.9亿美元，美国银行利润从32.8亿美元跃升至89.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo posted a profit of $6 billion compared with a loss of $3.85 billion last year, which was largely related to special items.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行公布利润为 60 亿美元，而去年亏损 38.5 亿美元，这主要与特殊项目有关。</blockquote></p><p> While the results indicate good news for consumers and businesses, low interest rates, weak loan demand and a slowdown in trading will probably weigh on results going forward, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，虽然结果对消费者和企业来说是个好消息，但低利率、贷款需求疲软和贸易放缓可能会拖累未来的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. Federal Reserve is staying the course, with an inflation target of 2% and no plans to tighten monetary policy by, for instance, raising interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks for a congressional appearance on Wednesday.read more</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三在国会发表讲话时表示，美联储将坚持不懈，通胀目标为 2%，没有计划通过加息等方式收紧货币政策。阅读更多</blockquote></p><p> That suggests banks will have to deal with low rates for an extended period of time.</p><p><blockquote>这表明银行将不得不在较长时间内应对低利率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/top-us-banks-smash-profit-estimates-rebounding-economy-2021-07-14/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗","BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/top-us-banks-smash-profit-estimates-rebounding-economy-2021-07-14/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142984811","content_text":"WASHINGTON, July 14 (Reuters) - The four largest U.S. consumer banks posted blockbuster second-quarter results this week, after pandemic loan losses failed to materialize and the U.S. economy began roaring back to life.\nWells Fargo & Co(WFC.N), Bank of America Corp(BAC.N), Citigroup Inc(C.N)and JPMorgan Chase & Co(JPM.N)posted a combined $33 billion in profits, buoyed by the release of $9 billion in reserves they had put aside last year to absorb feared pandemic losses.\nThat was beyond analystestimatesof about $24 billion combined, compared with $6 billion in the year-ago quarter.\nConsumer spending has climbed, sometimes beyond pre-pandemic levels, while credit quality has improved and savings and investments have risen, the banks said.\nThanks to extraordinary government stimulus and loan repayment holidays, feared pandemic losses have not materialized. A national vaccination roll-out has allowed also Americans get back to work and to start spending again.\nSizzling capital markets activity has also helped the largest U.S. banks, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc(GS.N)reporting a $5.35 billion profit, more than double its adjusted earnings a year ago.\n\"The pace of the global recovery is exceeding earlier expectations and with it, consumer and corporate confidence is rising,\" Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said.\nThat was reflected in a pick-up in consumer lending.\nFor example, JPMorgan said combined spending on its debit and credit cards rose 22% compared with the same quarter in 2019, when spending patterns were more normal.\nSpending on Citi-branded credit cards in the United States jumped 40% from a year earlier, but with so many customers paying off balances its card loans fell 4%.read more\nCitigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said the bank expects more customers to go back to their pre-pandemic pattern of carrying revolving balances as government stimulus programs wind down later this year.\nWells Fargo posted a 14% gain in credit-card revenue compared with the second quarter of 2020, due to higher point-of-sale volume. Revenue was up slightly on the first quarter, the bank said.\n\"What we're seeing is people starting to spend and act more in a way that seems more like it was before the pandemic started and, certainly on the consumer side, spending is up quite a bit, even when you compare it to 2018,\" Wells Fargo chief financial officer Mike Santomassimo told reporters.\nWhile loan growth is still tepid, which is usually bad for bank profits, there were signs that demand is creeping back.\nExcluding loans related to the U.S. government's pandemic aid program, loan balances at Bank of America, for example, grew $5.1 billion from the first quarter.read more\n\"Deposit growth is strong, and loan levels have begun to grow,\" Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement.\nJPMorgan, the country's largest lender, on Tuesday reported profits of $11.9 billion compared with $4.7 billion last year.\nCitigroup's second-quarter profit rose to $6.19 billion, up from $1.06 billion last year, while Bank of America's profit jumped to $8.96 billion from $3.28 billion.\nWells Fargo posted a profit of $6 billion compared with a loss of $3.85 billion last year, which was largely related to special items.\nWhile the results indicate good news for consumers and businesses, low interest rates, weak loan demand and a slowdown in trading will probably weigh on results going forward, analysts said.\nThe U.S. Federal Reserve is staying the course, with an inflation target of 2% and no plans to tighten monetary policy by, for instance, raising interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in prepared remarks for a congressional appearance on Wednesday.read more\nThat suggests banks will have to deal with low rates for an extended period of 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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157235206","repostId":"1122020537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157232524,"gmtCreate":1625582851168,"gmtModify":1631893828124,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582687913455140","authorIdStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157232524","repostId":"2149368191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157232913,"gmtCreate":1625582829232,"gmtModify":1633939360641,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582687913455140","authorIdStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大家好","listText":"大家好","text":"大家好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157232913","repostId":"1118465420","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":154106235,"gmtCreate":1625486181527,"gmtModify":1633940286144,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582687913455140","authorIdStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154106235","repostId":"1155435134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155435134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625483300,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155435134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 19:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155435134","media":"investopedia","summary":"The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the","content":"<p>The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“季度末”是指财务日历上四个特定三个月期间之一的结束。三月份发送的四个季度，即第一季度；六月，或Q2；九月，或第三季度；和 12 月，或第四季度。这被认为是投资者的重要时刻。许多企业、分析师、政府机构和美联储会在季度末发布有关各种市场或经济指标的重要新数据。</blockquote></p><p> There's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.</p><p><blockquote>金融界普遍认为，对冲基金、养老基金和保险公司总是会在每个季度末重新平衡其投资组合。虽然从来没有证据或证据被提出来证实这种做法或其流行，但这个想法本身强化了季度末是重要的概念。</blockquote></p><p> Even if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>即使主要金融参与者并不总是在季度末重新平衡，许多投资者也会利用这段时间重新评估自己的投资组合管理，改变投资组合中的资产或设定新的投资组合目标。对于投资者来说，不时监控他们的投资不仅是一个好主意，而且很少有像季度末那样发布如此多的新的、可操作的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancing a Portfolio</p><p><blockquote>重新平衡投资组合</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.</p><p><blockquote>再平衡涉及定期出售和购买投资组合内的资产以维持目标比率。2考虑一位投资者，他希望他的投资组合由 50% 的成长型股票、25% 的收益型股票和 25% 的债券组成。如果在第一季度，成长型股票的表现大幅优于其他投资，投资者可能会决定出售一些成长型股票或购买更多收益股票和债券，以使投资组合恢复到 50-25-25 的比例。</blockquote></p><p> KEY TAKEAWAYS</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.</li>  <li>Companies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.</li>  <li>Both retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.</li> </ul> Traditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>被称为财务季度的三个月期末被认为是投资者的重要时刻。</li><li>公司、金融分析师和政府机构（包括美联储）都会在季度末发布报告和关键数据。</li><li>散户和机构投资者经常利用季度末来重新评估和平衡他们的投资组合。</li></ul>传统的再平衡涉及在每个季度末通过高位卖出来交换表现良好的资产的收益，以低位买入来交换表现较差的资产。理论上，这有助于保护投资组合不会过度暴露或偏离其原始策略太远。然而，将重新平衡与季度末挂钩依赖于可能与市场走势不一致的任意日历事件。然而，季度末出现的新报告的汇聚通常会引起市场反应，应该引起大多数参与者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional Investors and Rebalancing</p><p><blockquote>机构投资者与再平衡</blockquote></p><p> It is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3</p><p><blockquote>不仅仅是个人投资者考虑在季度末进行投资组合变动。投资组合管理对于共同基金和交易所交易基金（ETF）等机构投资者也很重要。3</blockquote></p><p> There are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.</p><p><blockquote>基金投资组合管理有两种形式：主动和被动。4被动基金通常将其投资组合与市场指数挂钩，并涉及较少的变化，以换取较低的管理费。季度末对于这些类型的基金来说意义不大，但如果它们的基准指数在这个时候发生变化，它们也会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Active funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.</p><p><blockquote>主动型基金的经理或经理团队采取更积极主动的方法来超越市场平均回报。这些基金在季度末可能会非常活跃，特别是如果他们的投资组合需要调整以满足他们之前陈述的目标和战略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 19:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“季度末”是指财务日历上四个特定三个月期间之一的结束。三月份发送的四个季度，即第一季度；六月，或Q2；九月，或第三季度；和 12 月，或第四季度。这被认为是投资者的重要时刻。许多企业、分析师、政府机构和美联储会在季度末发布有关各种市场或经济指标的重要新数据。</blockquote></p><p> There's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.</p><p><blockquote>金融界普遍认为，对冲基金、养老基金和保险公司总是会在每个季度末重新平衡其投资组合。虽然从来没有证据或证据被提出来证实这种做法或其流行，但这个想法本身强化了季度末是重要的概念。</blockquote></p><p> Even if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>即使主要金融参与者并不总是在季度末重新平衡，许多投资者也会利用这段时间重新评估自己的投资组合管理，改变投资组合中的资产或设定新的投资组合目标。对于投资者来说，不时监控他们的投资不仅是一个好主意，而且很少有像季度末那样发布如此多的新的、可操作的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancing a Portfolio</p><p><blockquote>重新平衡投资组合</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.</p><p><blockquote>再平衡涉及定期出售和购买投资组合内的资产以维持目标比率。2考虑一位投资者，他希望他的投资组合由 50% 的成长型股票、25% 的收益型股票和 25% 的债券组成。如果在第一季度，成长型股票的表现大幅优于其他投资，投资者可能会决定出售一些成长型股票或购买更多收益股票和债券，以使投资组合恢复到 50-25-25 的比例。</blockquote></p><p> KEY TAKEAWAYS</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.</li>  <li>Companies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.</li>  <li>Both retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.</li> </ul> Traditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>被称为财务季度的三个月期末被认为是投资者的重要时刻。</li><li>公司、金融分析师和政府机构（包括美联储）都会在季度末发布报告和关键数据。</li><li>散户和机构投资者经常利用季度末来重新评估和平衡他们的投资组合。</li></ul>传统的再平衡涉及在每个季度末通过高位卖出来交换表现良好的资产的收益，以低位买入来交换表现较差的资产。理论上，这有助于保护投资组合不会过度暴露或偏离其原始策略太远。然而，将重新平衡与季度末挂钩依赖于可能与市场走势不一致的任意日历事件。然而，季度末出现的新报告的汇聚通常会引起市场反应，应该引起大多数参与者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional Investors and Rebalancing</p><p><blockquote>机构投资者与再平衡</blockquote></p><p> It is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3</p><p><blockquote>不仅仅是个人投资者考虑在季度末进行投资组合变动。投资组合管理对于共同基金和交易所交易基金（ETF）等机构投资者也很重要。3</blockquote></p><p> There are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.</p><p><blockquote>基金投资组合管理有两种形式：主动和被动。4被动基金通常将其投资组合与市场指数挂钩，并涉及较少的变化，以换取较低的管理费。季度末对于这些类型的基金来说意义不大，但如果它们的基准指数在这个时候发生变化，它们也会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Active funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.</p><p><blockquote>主动型基金的经理或经理团队采取更积极主动的方法来超越市场平均回报。这些基金在季度末可能会非常活跃，特别是如果他们的投资组合需要调整以满足他们之前陈述的目标和战略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122214/what-does-end-quarter-mean-portfolio-management.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral\">investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122214/what-does-end-quarter-mean-portfolio-management.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155435134","content_text":"The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.\nThere's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.\nEven if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.\nRebalancing a Portfolio\nRebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nThe end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.\nCompanies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.\nBoth retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.\n\nTraditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.\nInstitutional Investors and Rebalancing\nIt is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3\nThere are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.\nActive funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and 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21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周市场对美联储 “鹰派惊喜 ”和吉姆-布拉德（Jim Bullard）周五上午发表的 “你认为那是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒 ”的言论之后，野村证券（Nomura）的查理-麦切利戈特（Charlie McElligott）警告说：“政策错误”。<b>交易员现在需要为本周可能出现的 “言论逆转 ”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个惊人的十六（!）美联储发言人在未来的日历上……</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已大幅高于亚洲重新开盘低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>麦克埃利戈特警告说，<b>风险可能会造成逆势逆转，这可能会让许多人再次措手不及。从战术上讲，美联储任何退缩的迹象都可能引发 “再通胀 ”的前景。</b>特别是如果美元在此基础上进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负倾斜，UST曲线将在上周引人注目的清算/止损之后再次 “熊市陡峭”--这也可能引发美国股市此前 “周期价值高于长期增长 ”趋势的同时反弹，<i>在上述表达式上周被强烈扣除后</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；循环价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御值 -2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股票“持续时间”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息 +1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是 “不惜一切代价维持宽松金融环境 ”的不言而喻的 “美联储第三项任务 ”所造成的后果</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上会发挥作用，以至于在 “旧 ”央行中，美联储会相应地转向 “鹰派 ”并开始收紧政策；但在 “美联储看跌 ”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在推动了上述 “紧缩 ”的负面经济放缓影响，并产生了 “缩减收缩发脾气 ”，造成了市场波动、<b>如果市场发生变化，最终迫使美联储收回鹰派基调。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险变成了，美联储非常活跃的发言人日程表中的一部分人现在将表达一种 “担忧”，即上周的点阵图和 SEP 将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可能会传达这些预测有多 “有条件”的信息。</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场对 “金融环境收紧 ”的一些预期，因为美联储认为 “鹰派转向 ”会抵消他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力!</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈服”，那么vol飙升和对风险资产的强制去杠杆化/对冲就会逆转，“丰富的vol”随后被抛售。按照标准的滞后模式，这意味着随着rVol在预期的“美联储回调”之后重置更低，随着vol被打破，大量动态对冲（空头）和/或来自“目标波动性/vol控制”领域的风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将使市场恢复上涨。<b><i>- “崩溃，然后崩溃”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步有助于这些潜在的“弹射”（撞击下降，然后撞击）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超额的 Op-Ex 之后，我们现在自然而然地看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前 ES 为 4167，这是 “Delta 中性与现货”水平）。</b><b><i>(不过值得注意的是，我们现在处于 “短伽马 vs 现货 ”区域，最后 4167 对 4237 “伽马中性 ”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果 VRP 人群将 “鹰派美联储惊喜 ”的增量飙升卖给了交易商。</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回归”的迹象），</i></b><b>此后，这种波动性和伽马的脉冲供应将再次延续一个更加稳定、绝缘的市场，因为交易商的“长伽马”意味着对冲流量将进一步抑制市场波动的潜力</b>-因此，“销量”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周市场对美联储 “鹰派惊喜 ”和吉姆-布拉德（Jim Bullard）周五上午发表的 “你认为那是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒 ”的言论之后，野村证券（Nomura）的查理-麦切利戈特（Charlie McElligott）警告说：“政策错误”。<b>交易员现在需要为本周可能出现的 “言论逆转 ”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个惊人的十六（!）美联储发言人在未来的日历上……</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已大幅高于亚洲重新开盘低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>麦克埃利戈特警告说，<b>风险可能会造成逆势逆转，这可能会让许多人再次措手不及。从战术上讲，美联储任何退缩的迹象都可能引发 “再通胀 ”的前景。</b>特别是如果美元在此基础上进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负倾斜，UST曲线将在上周引人注目的清算/止损之后再次 “熊市陡峭”--这也可能引发美国股市此前 “周期价值高于长期增长 ”趋势的同时反弹，<i>在上述表达式上周被强烈扣除后</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；循环价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御值 -2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股票“持续时间”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息 +1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是 “不惜一切代价维持宽松金融环境 ”的不言而喻的 “美联储第三项任务 ”所造成的后果</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上会发挥作用，以至于在 “旧 ”央行中，美联储会相应地转向 “鹰派 ”并开始收紧政策；但在 “美联储看跌 ”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在推动了上述 “紧缩 ”的负面经济放缓影响，并产生了 “缩减收缩发脾气 ”，造成了市场波动、<b>如果市场发生变化，最终迫使美联储收回鹰派基调。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险变成了，美联储非常活跃的发言人日程表中的一部分人现在将表达一种 “担忧”，即上周的点阵图和 SEP 将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可能会传达这些预测有多 “有条件”的信息。</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场对 “金融环境收紧 ”的一些预期，因为美联储认为 “鹰派转向 ”会抵消他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力!</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈服”，那么vol飙升和对风险资产的强制去杠杆化/对冲就会逆转，“丰富的vol”随后被抛售。按照标准的滞后模式，这意味着随着rVol在预期的“美联储回调”之后重置更低，随着vol被打破，大量动态对冲（空头）和/或来自“目标波动性/vol控制”领域的风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将使市场恢复上涨。<b><i>- “崩溃，然后崩溃”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步有助于这些潜在的“弹射”（撞击下降，然后撞击）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超额的 Op-Ex 之后，我们现在自然而然地看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前 ES 为 4167，这是 “Delta 中性与现货”水平）。</b><b><i>(不过值得注意的是，我们现在处于 “短伽马 vs 现货 ”区域，最后 4167 对 4237 “伽马中性 ”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果 VRP 人群将 “鹰派美联储惊喜 ”的增量飙升卖给了交易商。</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回归”的迹象），</i></b><b>此后，这种波动性和伽马的脉冲供应将再次延续一个更加稳定、绝缘的市场，因为交易商的“长伽马”意味着对冲流量将进一步抑制市场波动的潜力</b>-因此，“销量”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164856543,"gmtCreate":1624194871982,"gmtModify":1634009608177,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582687913455140","authorIdStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164856543","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":196641105,"gmtCreate":1621051592907,"gmtModify":1634194268976,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment on mine thx u","listText":"Comment on mine thx u","text":"Comment on mine thx u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196641105","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC 投资者有理由在再次融资后更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的上涨是在该公司宣布筹集 4.28 亿美元之后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）就当前的健康和安全协议发表了一份新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持物理距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这应该可以让电影院满负荷重新开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影观众的理想目的地。也是昨天，<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）公布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克 (Bob Chapek) 指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是个好消息，但迪士尼也报告了其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>较低的流媒体订阅可能是影院业务的一个积极迹象。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，随着疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在室内聚集人群，不戴口罩，剧院上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动中。经过一年多的在家观看，电影院可能会成为最受欢迎的目的地。在再次融资之后，AMC 投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC 投资者有理由在再次融资后更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的上涨是在该公司宣布筹集 4.28 亿美元之后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）就当前的健康和安全协议发表了一份新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持物理距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这应该可以让电影院满负荷重新开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影观众的理想目的地。也是昨天，<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）公布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克 (Bob Chapek) 指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是个好消息，但迪士尼也报告了其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>较低的流媒体订阅可能是影院业务的一个积极迹象。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，随着疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在室内聚集人群，不戴口罩，剧院上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动中。经过一年多的在家观看，电影院可能会成为最受欢迎的目的地。在再次融资之后，AMC 投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138425508,"gmtCreate":1621955402204,"gmtModify":1634185154512,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138425508","repostId":"2138193987","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170476551,"gmtCreate":1626448526373,"gmtModify":1631893828097,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170476551","repostId":"2151500861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117898231,"gmtCreate":1623127690123,"gmtModify":1634036642467,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117898231","repostId":"1119223311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180256748,"gmtCreate":1623208062184,"gmtModify":1634035784734,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180256748","repostId":"2142299762","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113460294,"gmtCreate":1622634386918,"gmtModify":1634099746933,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113460294","repostId":"1193622578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137081088,"gmtCreate":1622268678844,"gmtModify":1634102596236,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nihao&nbsp;","listText":"Nihao&nbsp;","text":"Nihao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137081088","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193408468,"gmtCreate":1620805471554,"gmtModify":1634196164177,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help comment and like 🙂","listText":"Help comment and like 🙂","text":"Help comment and like 🙂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193408468","repostId":"1195374535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195374535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620805173,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195374535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195374535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the","content":"<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数字，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心（不是高得多的总体）价格首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧（他们可以将这些上涨的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭日益确信价格上涨将持续下去，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，消费者预计明年汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格上涨5.93%，租金价格上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶预计，中期内物价将呈小幅上涨趋势，最终将持续超过美联储的目标（而且是在充分就业的环境下），从而有必要加息，可能要到 2023 年下半年才会加息。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不认同，尤其是债券市场，交易员正在为更高的通胀和更快的美联储加息定价。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍达德（Jared Woodard）指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早就发生了：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这次会有所不同？正如伍达德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久性上升或有害的人来说，挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。对此，美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果不是，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计将出现长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速修复（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈可以解决。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情所必需的，还是供应链向可靠民主国家重新定位所必需的，资本支出较高的时期都应该是可以容忍的。许多公司已经证明了定价权，第一季度美国企业利润率创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工人稀缺</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何急剧飙升都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将急剧上升。</li><li>丰厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将重返公立学校，</li><li>健康问题将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘。</li></ul>事实上，我们有 980 万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计到秋季将有 200 多万失业工人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登失业救济金将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道……</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”……尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行的银行家没有薪酬会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，工资增长的长期趋势更高将对国内生产总值和生产率产生积极影响： 在杜克大学最新的首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，有三分之二的公司表示这是因为他们 “没有必要扩大产能”。持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，甚至很难想象工资螺旋式上升的尾部风险。<b>需要10-12%的稳定工资增长才能将通货膨胀推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今美国经济的结构已经大不相同。非精英工会在政治上没有牙齿。技术渗透到每个行业。更多服务的外包即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过剩需求</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有过度需求的迹象。美国银行的最新消费者似乎证实了 “财政流动性陷阱 ”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有多余储蓄，但历史表明他们不会消费；由于更高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021 年高收入支出更有可能出现寒流；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍达德总结道，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长适度（无论如何都是有帮助的长期），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>废话，你说。在数万亿美元的刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通货膨胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，将投资组合永久分配给通货膨胀资产只会损害回报（与通货紧缩偏差不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通货膨胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG 公司债券、国债、美国成长型股票和标普500的配置价值 104 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为 3.6%。在过去 30 年中，有五次 CPI 飙升至该水平以上（2001 年 5 月、2005 年 9 月、2006 年 6 月、2007 年 10 月、2011 年 6 月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，利用这些触发因素购买通胀资产的投资者在接下来的一年里遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与增长-2%，欧盟与美国股市-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有 TIPS 和 small vs large 的平均回报为正。如今，10 年期 TIPS 收益率为 -0.93%，距历史低点仅 19 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>最后，Woodard写道，“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次 “自然 ”衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经达到 13 年来的高点时。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认它是在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛弃，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀看起来像公园里的散步……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久性”更高通胀可能来自的三个地方</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数字，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心（不是高得多的总体）价格首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧（他们可以将这些上涨的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭日益确信价格上涨将持续下去，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，消费者预计明年汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格上涨5.93%，租金价格上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶预计，中期内物价将呈小幅上涨趋势，最终将持续超过美联储的目标（而且是在充分就业的环境下），从而有必要加息，可能要到 2023 年下半年才会加息。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不认同，尤其是债券市场，交易员正在为更高的通胀和更快的美联储加息定价。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍达德（Jared Woodard）指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早就发生了：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这次会有所不同？正如伍达德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久性上升或有害的人来说，挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。对此，美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果不是，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计将出现长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速修复（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈可以解决。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情所必需的，还是供应链向可靠民主国家重新定位所必需的，资本支出较高的时期都应该是可以容忍的。许多公司已经证明了定价权，第一季度美国企业利润率创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工人稀缺</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何急剧飙升都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将急剧上升。</li><li>丰厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将重返公立学校，</li><li>健康问题将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘。</li></ul>事实上，我们有 980 万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计到秋季将有 200 多万失业工人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登失业救济金将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道……</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”……尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行的银行家没有薪酬会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，工资增长的长期趋势更高将对国内生产总值和生产率产生积极影响： 在杜克大学最新的首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，有三分之二的公司表示这是因为他们 “没有必要扩大产能”。持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，甚至很难想象工资螺旋式上升的尾部风险。<b>需要10-12%的稳定工资增长才能将通货膨胀推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平……</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今美国经济的结构已经大不相同。非精英工会在政治上没有牙齿。技术渗透到每个行业。更多服务的外包即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过剩需求</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有过度需求的迹象。美国银行的最新消费者似乎证实了 “财政流动性陷阱 ”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有多余储蓄，但历史表明他们不会消费；由于更高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021 年高收入支出更有可能出现寒流；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍达德总结道，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长适度（无论如何都是有帮助的长期），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>废话，你说。在数万亿美元的刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通货膨胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，将投资组合永久分配给通货膨胀资产只会损害回报（与通货紧缩偏差不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通货膨胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG 公司债券、国债、美国成长型股票和标普500的配置价值 104 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为 3.6%。在过去 30 年中，有五次 CPI 飙升至该水平以上（2001 年 5 月、2005 年 9 月、2006 年 6 月、2007 年 10 月、2011 年 6 月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，利用这些触发因素购买通胀资产的投资者在接下来的一年里遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与增长-2%，欧盟与美国股市-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有 TIPS 和 small vs large 的平均回报为正。如今，10 年期 TIPS 收益率为 -0.93%，距历史低点仅 19 个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>最后，Woodard写道，“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次 “自然 ”衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经达到 13 年来的高点时。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认它是在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛弃，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀看起来像公园里的散步……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195374535","content_text":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...... and consumers (who can't).Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.1. Scarce goodsIn 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.Scarce workersWoodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:Labor supply is set to rise sharply.Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,children will return to public schools,health concerns will be alleviated,firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues thatit would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s & 80s......and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.Excess demandThe last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and <10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -  was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&P 500 was worth $104.Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199665962,"gmtCreate":1620700738356,"gmtModify":1634196988452,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment on mine thx","listText":"Comment on mine thx","text":"Comment on mine thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199665962","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171494601,"gmtCreate":1626754782603,"gmtModify":1631893828093,"author":{"id":"3582687913455140","authorId":"3582687913455140","name":"cklcklckl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ec6b6794830f516eea2c967e740df5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582687913455140","idStr":"3582687913455140"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171494601","repostId":"1166035606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}