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2021-06-23

Nice closing

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2021-06-21

Up up up

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2021-06-21

China stock gd

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2021-06-19

Will this really veocme true?

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2021-06-19

Roller coaster... Up down up down

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2021-06-18

V good.. buy more to wait..

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-15

We love 🍎🍎🍎

Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Genting will go up mah?

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2021-06-12

Powerpack

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2021-06-11

Aluminum go up... Copper also?

2021-06-11

Meaning copper also go up.?

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2021-06-10

Like like

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2021-06-10

Nice

This Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote>

2021-06-09

Hope bb can chiong

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2021-06-09

Nice nice..

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2021-06-09

Nice

S&P 500 closes little changed as "meme stocks" extend rally<blockquote>随着“模因股”延续涨势，标普500收盘变化不大</blockquote>

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gd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167264399","repostId":"2145081082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162509567,"gmtCreate":1624066679759,"gmtModify":1634023317364,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will this really veocme true?","listText":"Will this really veocme true?","text":"Will this really veocme true?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162509567","repostId":"1138062216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162277858,"gmtCreate":1624066605974,"gmtModify":1634023319624,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster... Up down up down","listText":"Roller coaster... Up down up down","text":"Roller coaster... Up down up down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162277858","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168581157,"gmtCreate":1623978696479,"gmtModify":1634024885834,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"V good.. buy more to wait..&nbsp;","listText":"V good.. buy more to wait..&nbsp;","text":"V good.. buy more to wait..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168581157","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184476367,"gmtCreate":1623723205259,"gmtModify":1634029546412,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We love 🍎🍎🍎","listText":"We love 🍎🍎🍎","text":"We love 🍎🍎🍎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184476367","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167720481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是负面投资，而模因股票却呈爆炸式增长，这太荒谬了。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一轮上涨之前买入它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速赚钱上。</li><li>苹果有望在2021财年创造超过3000亿美元的收入和750亿美元的净利润。</li><li>最终，苹果将被投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果(AAPL)已成为负回报投资，表现落后SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021年5月，最热门的基金经理之一Ark Invest的Cathie Wood从ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)出售了近30万股AAPL股票。据报道，ARK一度减持了AAPL的股份，以增持Coinbase(COIN)和DraftKings(DKNG)的股份。one’s ARK等主动管理型基金每天都会监督股票的买卖，并且可能会使用AAPL作为现金的替代品。苹果公司的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为它最好的日子还在前面，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子不会重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为AAPL应该会在2021年下半年突破横盘格局。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对苹果公司在第一季度和第二季度的井喷表现并没有留下深刻印象。苹果公司的股价非但没有受到基本面的支持，反而一直停滞不前。作为苹果公司的多头，令人费解的是，当苹果公司为有史以来最好的一年做准备时，如此多的注意力都集中在模因股票上，而不是像苹果公司这样的公司。在阅读了最近关于MEME股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，2021年AAPL的每股收益为3.08美元，而整个2020财年的每股收益为3.31美元。苹果公司正在为许多指标上有史以来最好的一年奠定基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟花，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并把钱用在了他们的嘴上</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL如何处理其产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品供应以及他们最新的业务领域（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来进步。AAPL拥有类似邪教心态的客户的原因之一是因为AAPL不会停止创新。他们总是站在最前沿，推动技术如何改善个人日常生活的界限。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩下的现金呢？苹果公司押注于自己，并将其股票视为一种投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了价值4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，这表明高级领导层认为持有AAPL股票具有巨大价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司的股票时，每个人都感到兴奋的日子。对于苹果公司来说，回购股票只是一个普通的周一。苹果公司在过去十年中回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长水平。AAPL董事会授权在其现有股票回购计划的基础上追加900亿美元，AAPL在2021年第二季度向股东返还了近230亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，游戏驿站(GME)和AMC院线控股(AMC)的股价大幅上涨。不管GME和AMC为何上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过1,100%，AMC的回报率超过2,000%。任何骑过GME或AMC的人，我祝贺并向你们脱帽致敬。由于AAPL今年表现不佳，市场正受到宏伟妄想的推动，但GME和AMC却绝对呈爆炸式上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损且几乎不赚钱的公司。我知道投资AMC这样的公司可以因波动性而产生巨额回报，但我并不是在批评它。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人妨碍你，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，你会发现他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019年，新冠疫情的影响为零，AMC创造了54.7亿美元的收入，甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了1.491亿美元。AMC上一季度报告的资产负债表上的股本为-23亿美元。现实情况是，AMC可以增发股票并出售以筹集资金。这将改善资产负债表并增加手头现金，从而使AMC受益。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应而被稀释并变得毫无价值。AMC可以发行股票并增强其资产负债表，但这不会解决其盈利问题。AAPL每个季度向股东支付的股息比AMC过去十年产生的利润还要多，但AMC是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买AMC股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC的市盈率无法在过去12个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道AMC一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为一家盈利为负的公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔指数的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用AAPL在2021财年前6个月产生的每股收益3.08美元，他们的市盈率将为40.55。对于TTM，AAPL的每股收益为4.49美元，这使得其市盈率降至28.09。目前，投资者为AAPL每产生1美元的收益支付28.09美元，这对于科技行业来说很低。亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率为62.44，微软(MSFT)为34.93，谷歌(GOOGL)为32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么向上突破是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas的收入为2010.2亿美元，毛利润为824.1亿美元，净利润为523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入（824.1亿美元）的78.51%和2020年净利润总额（523.9亿美元）的91.25%。AAPL有望打破之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则2021年将是AAPL有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是是什么导致了AAPL财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是AAPL的硬件销量从iPhone 12到iPad都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，当AAPL报告Q2时，他们的iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是一年后的事了，虽然AAPL首款5G产品iPhone 12预计会带来推动力，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信AAPL将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是拼图的一部分。服务和可穿戴设备家居和配件正在成为AAPL财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务增加了65.4亿美元（16.46%），全年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），总收入达到537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为AAPL创造了真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务的美妙之处在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>服务正在成为AAPL的本垒打，因为它使其收入组合多元化，不再仅仅依靠实体产品构建。截至2020财年结束时，服务业在短短4年内年收入增加了294.2亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，是2020年收入的60%。AAPL有望在2021财年实现600亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会创造1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备家居和配件继续追随Service的脚步，因为它已成为比iPad和Mac更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的成立，这一类别的收入从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，可穿戴家居和配件已经创造了208.1亿美元的收入，是2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL肯定有望在2021财年从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造超过350亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL有望从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造500亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到2025财年结束时，服务很有可能会产生超过780亿美元的收入，如果两者都以10%的速度增长，可穿戴家居和配件的年收入可能会超过440亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过1000亿美元，到2020年代末，这一数字可能会增长到每年1500亿美元。我对投资者没有涌入苹果公司感到震惊，更可笑的是，没有更详细地讨论对苹果公司数据的强调。当服务业收入达到1000亿美元、可穿戴家居和配件收入达到500亿美元时，AAPL未来的价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新并改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票让一些投资者兴奋不已，同时也让另一群投资者摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买AAPL出售的股票时，为什么人们想要投资AMC。苹果公司本应大幅上涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有起到任何作用。我相信一旦第三季度的数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在9个月内，他们创造的净利润超过了2020年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一轮上涨之前买入更多苹果公司。我是AAPL的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是负面投资，而模因股票却呈爆炸式增长，这太荒谬了。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一轮上涨之前买入它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速赚钱上。</li><li>苹果有望在2021财年创造超过3000亿美元的收入和750亿美元的净利润。</li><li>最终，苹果将被投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果(AAPL)已成为负回报投资，表现落后SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021年5月，最热门的基金经理之一Ark Invest的Cathie Wood从ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)出售了近30万股AAPL股票。据报道，ARK一度减持了AAPL的股份，以增持Coinbase(COIN)和DraftKings(DKNG)的股份。one’s ARK等主动管理型基金每天都会监督股票的买卖，并且可能会使用AAPL作为现金的替代品。苹果公司的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为它最好的日子还在前面，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子不会重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为AAPL应该会在2021年下半年突破横盘格局。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对苹果公司在第一季度和第二季度的井喷表现并没有留下深刻印象。苹果公司的股价非但没有受到基本面的支持，反而一直停滞不前。作为苹果公司的多头，令人费解的是，当苹果公司为有史以来最好的一年做准备时，如此多的注意力都集中在模因股票上，而不是像苹果公司这样的公司。在阅读了最近关于MEME股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，2021年AAPL的每股收益为3.08美元，而整个2020财年的每股收益为3.31美元。苹果公司正在为许多指标上有史以来最好的一年奠定基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟花，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并把钱用在了他们的嘴上</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL如何处理其产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品供应以及他们最新的业务领域（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来进步。AAPL拥有类似邪教心态的客户的原因之一是因为AAPL不会停止创新。他们总是站在最前沿，推动技术如何改善个人日常生活的界限。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩下的现金呢？苹果公司押注于自己，并将其股票视为一种投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了价值4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，这表明高级领导层认为持有AAPL股票具有巨大价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司的股票时，每个人都感到兴奋的日子。对于苹果公司来说，回购股票只是一个普通的周一。苹果公司在过去十年中回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长水平。AAPL董事会授权在其现有股票回购计划的基础上追加900亿美元，AAPL在2021年第二季度向股东返还了近230亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，游戏驿站(GME)和AMC院线控股(AMC)的股价大幅上涨。不管GME和AMC为何上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过1,100%，AMC的回报率超过2,000%。任何骑过GME或AMC的人，我祝贺并向你们脱帽致敬。由于AAPL今年表现不佳，市场正受到宏伟妄想的推动，但GME和AMC却绝对呈爆炸式上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损且几乎不赚钱的公司。我知道投资AMC这样的公司可以因波动性而产生巨额回报，但我并不是在批评它。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人妨碍你，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，你会发现他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019年，新冠疫情的影响为零，AMC创造了54.7亿美元的收入，甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了1.491亿美元。AMC上一季度报告的资产负债表上的股本为-23亿美元。现实情况是，AMC可以增发股票并出售以筹集资金。这将改善资产负债表并增加手头现金，从而使AMC受益。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应而被稀释并变得毫无价值。AMC可以发行股票并增强其资产负债表，但这不会解决其盈利问题。AAPL每个季度向股东支付的股息比AMC过去十年产生的利润还要多，但AMC是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买AMC股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC的市盈率无法在过去12个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道AMC一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为一家盈利为负的公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔指数的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用AAPL在2021财年前6个月产生的每股收益3.08美元，他们的市盈率将为40.55。对于TTM，AAPL的每股收益为4.49美元，这使得其市盈率降至28.09。目前，投资者为AAPL每产生1美元的收益支付28.09美元，这对于科技行业来说很低。亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率为62.44，微软(MSFT)为34.93，谷歌(GOOGL)为32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么向上突破是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas的收入为2010.2亿美元，毛利润为824.1亿美元，净利润为523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入（824.1亿美元）的78.51%和2020年净利润总额（523.9亿美元）的91.25%。AAPL有望打破之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则2021年将是AAPL有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是是什么导致了AAPL财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是AAPL的硬件销量从iPhone 12到iPad都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，当AAPL报告Q2时，他们的iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是一年后的事了，虽然AAPL首款5G产品iPhone 12预计会带来推动力，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信AAPL将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是拼图的一部分。服务和可穿戴设备家居和配件正在成为AAPL财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务增加了65.4亿美元（16.46%），全年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），总收入达到537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为AAPL创造了真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务的美妙之处在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>服务正在成为AAPL的本垒打，因为它使其收入组合多元化，不再仅仅依靠实体产品构建。截至2020财年结束时，服务业在短短4年内年收入增加了294.2亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，是2020年收入的60%。AAPL有望在2021财年实现600亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会创造1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备家居和配件继续追随Service的脚步，因为它已成为比iPad和Mac更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的成立，这一类别的收入从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，可穿戴家居和配件已经创造了208.1亿美元的收入，是2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL肯定有望在2021财年从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造超过350亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL有望从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造500亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到2025财年结束时，服务很有可能会产生超过780亿美元的收入，如果两者都以10%的速度增长，可穿戴家居和配件的年收入可能会超过440亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过1000亿美元，到2020年代末，这一数字可能会增长到每年1500亿美元。我对投资者没有涌入苹果公司感到震惊，更可笑的是，没有更详细地讨论对苹果公司数据的强调。当服务业收入达到1000亿美元、可穿戴家居和配件收入达到500亿美元时，AAPL未来的价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新并改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票让一些投资者兴奋不已，同时也让另一群投资者摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买AAPL出售的股票时，为什么人们想要投资AMC。苹果公司本应大幅上涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有起到任何作用。我相信一旦第三季度的数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在9个月内，他们创造的净利润超过了2020年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一轮上涨之前买入更多苹果公司。我是AAPL的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185100906,"gmtCreate":1623635350805,"gmtModify":1634030896479,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Genting will go up mah?","listText":"Genting will go up mah?","text":"Genting will go up mah?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185100906","repostId":"1158004685","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188472661,"gmtCreate":1623460649553,"gmtModify":1634032936178,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Powerpack","listText":"Powerpack","text":"Powerpack","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188472661","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181219700,"gmtCreate":1623395817400,"gmtModify":1634033787893,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aluminum go up... Copper also?","listText":"Aluminum go up... Copper also?","text":"Aluminum go up... Copper also?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181219700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181210255,"gmtCreate":1623395749277,"gmtModify":1634033788959,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meaning copper also go up.?","listText":"Meaning copper also go up.?","text":"Meaning copper also go up.?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181210255","repostId":"2142279140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183323755,"gmtCreate":1623309556377,"gmtModify":1634034716876,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like like&nbsp;","listText":"Like like&nbsp;","text":"Like like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183323755","repostId":"1125480909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183323875,"gmtCreate":1623309513397,"gmtModify":1634034717116,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183323875","repostId":"1129784455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129784455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623292155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129784455?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129784455","media":"fool","summary":"Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy","content":"<p>Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy throughout 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 would inevitably be a year of sharp recovery. It's certainly the case that there's plenty of pent-up demand in certain areas of the economy that were shut down for much of the past year. Yet a new threat that few people had accounted for appears to have reared up, and it's making economists start to question whether the recovery will be as strong as everyone had assumed it would be. That, in turn, could bring thebull marketto&nbsp; a crashing halt.</p><p><blockquote>几乎所有人似乎都想当然地认为，在2020年全球经济因新冠肺炎疫情而遭受巨大破坏之后，2021年将不可避免地是大幅复苏的一年。事实上，在过去一年的大部分时间里，某些经济领域存在大量被压抑的需求。然而，一个很少有人考虑到的新威胁似乎已经出现，这让经济学家开始质疑复苏是否会像所有人想象的那样强劲。反过来，这可能会导致牛市戛然而止。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are tight labor markets hamstringing businesses?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>紧张的劳动力市场是否阻碍了企业？</b></blockquote></p><p> Employment trends are one of the most important factors that determine the course of the economy. When many people are unemployed, as occurred early in the pandemic, it can spell financial disaster. That was the primary motivation for the massive government assistance packages that came in multiple rounds over the past year. As businesses laid more people off due to shutdowns, the massive threat to the economy warranted a proportionate response.</p><p><blockquote>就业趋势是决定经济进程的最重要因素之一。当许多人失业时，就像疫情早期发生的那样，这可能意味着金融灾难。这是过去一年多轮大规模政府援助计划的主要动机。随着企业因停工而解雇更多人，对经济的巨大威胁需要采取相应的应对措施。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the economy is generating new jobs to put people back to work. Unemployment rates have fallen substantially. Yet the new threat facing businesses is finding enough people to hire as economic opportunities expand.</p><p><blockquote>现在，经济正在创造新的就业机会，让人们重返工作岗位。失业率大幅下降。然而，随着经济机会的扩大，企业面临的新威胁是找到足够的员工。</blockquote></p><p> Many workers have decided to leave their jobs, taking advantage of a tight labor market to find better positions elsewhere. Others still aren't in a position to return to work because of child care or health and safety concerns. Even decisions from some states to bring extra unemployment benefits to an end haven't yet resulted in a substantial uptick in people returning to work.</p><p><blockquote>许多工人决定离职，利用劳动力市场紧张的机会到别处寻找更好的职位。其他人由于儿童保育或健康和安全问题仍然无法重返工作岗位。即使一些州决定终止额外失业救济金，也尚未导致重返工作岗位的人数大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Businesses at risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面临风险的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> The impact of tight labor markets is stronger on some industries than on others. Those areas that have traditionally paid lower wages are struggling the most in many ways. On Wednesday, fast-casual restaurant chain&nbsp;<b>Chipotle Mexican Grill</b>(NYSE:CMG)said that it would boost the prices on its menu, in part to provide more money toboost employee wages for workers in Chipotle's restaurant locations. That includes a boost to average hourly wages to $15 by the end of this month, as well as referral bonuses for those bringing new workers on board.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场紧张对某些行业的影响比其他行业更大。那些传统上工资较低的地区在许多方面都陷入了最大的困境。周三，快餐休闲连锁餐厅<b>墨西哥烤肉店</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）表示，将提高菜单上的价格，部分原因是提供更多资金来提高Chipotle餐厅员工的工资。这包括到本月底将平均时薪提高到15美元，以及为那些引进新员工的人提供推荐奖金。</blockquote></p><p> The move follows similar actions by other players in fast food.<b>McDonald's</b>(NYSE:MCD)said last month that it wouldboost hourly pay by roughly 10%on average for tens of thousands of employees. Fast-casual specialist&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants</b>(NYSE:DRI)has also hiked its wages.</p><p><blockquote>此前，快餐业的其他参与者也采取了类似的行动。<b>麦当劳</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCD）上个月表示，将把数万名员工的时薪平均提高约10%。快速休闲专家<b>达顿餐厅</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DRI）也提高了工资。</blockquote></p><p> Nor is the labor shortage limited to restaurant work. Other companies outside of that industry have also boosted wages in an effort to attract new workers and retain existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺也不仅限于餐馆工作。该行业以外的其他公司也提高了工资，以吸引新员工并留住现有员工。</blockquote></p><p> Higher wages for lower-paid workers can have a positive impact on the economy. But if workers aren't taking jobs in some key areas despite wage increases, then labor shortages can lead to shutdowns, which in turn could make the economic recovery fall short of hopes. Given how high investor expectations have been, that could prove problematic for the bull market to continue to run.</p><p><blockquote>低薪工人的更高工资可以对经济产生积极影响。但如果尽管工资上涨，工人们仍没有在一些关键领域找到工作，那么劳动力短缺可能会导致停工，这反过来可能会使经济复苏达不到希望。鉴于投资者的预期有多高，这可能会给牛市的继续运行带来问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 10:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy throughout 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 would inevitably be a year of sharp recovery. It's certainly the case that there's plenty of pent-up demand in certain areas of the economy that were shut down for much of the past year. Yet a new threat that few people had accounted for appears to have reared up, and it's making economists start to question whether the recovery will be as strong as everyone had assumed it would be. That, in turn, could bring thebull marketto&nbsp; a crashing halt.</p><p><blockquote>几乎所有人似乎都想当然地认为，在2020年全球经济因新冠肺炎疫情而遭受巨大破坏之后，2021年将不可避免地是大幅复苏的一年。事实上，在过去一年的大部分时间里，某些经济领域存在大量被压抑的需求。然而，一个很少有人考虑到的新威胁似乎已经出现，这让经济学家开始质疑复苏是否会像所有人想象的那样强劲。反过来，这可能会导致牛市戛然而止。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are tight labor markets hamstringing businesses?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>紧张的劳动力市场是否阻碍了企业？</b></blockquote></p><p> Employment trends are one of the most important factors that determine the course of the economy. When many people are unemployed, as occurred early in the pandemic, it can spell financial disaster. That was the primary motivation for the massive government assistance packages that came in multiple rounds over the past year. As businesses laid more people off due to shutdowns, the massive threat to the economy warranted a proportionate response.</p><p><blockquote>就业趋势是决定经济进程的最重要因素之一。当许多人失业时，就像疫情早期发生的那样，这可能意味着金融灾难。这是过去一年多轮大规模政府援助计划的主要动机。随着企业因停工而解雇更多人，对经济的巨大威胁需要采取相应的应对措施。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the economy is generating new jobs to put people back to work. Unemployment rates have fallen substantially. Yet the new threat facing businesses is finding enough people to hire as economic opportunities expand.</p><p><blockquote>现在，经济正在创造新的就业机会，让人们重返工作岗位。失业率大幅下降。然而，随着经济机会的扩大，企业面临的新威胁是找到足够的员工。</blockquote></p><p> Many workers have decided to leave their jobs, taking advantage of a tight labor market to find better positions elsewhere. Others still aren't in a position to return to work because of child care or health and safety concerns. Even decisions from some states to bring extra unemployment benefits to an end haven't yet resulted in a substantial uptick in people returning to work.</p><p><blockquote>许多工人决定离职，利用劳动力市场紧张的机会到别处寻找更好的职位。其他人由于儿童保育或健康和安全问题仍然无法重返工作岗位。即使一些州决定终止额外失业救济金，也尚未导致重返工作岗位的人数大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Businesses at risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面临风险的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> The impact of tight labor markets is stronger on some industries than on others. Those areas that have traditionally paid lower wages are struggling the most in many ways. On Wednesday, fast-casual restaurant chain&nbsp;<b>Chipotle Mexican Grill</b>(NYSE:CMG)said that it would boost the prices on its menu, in part to provide more money toboost employee wages for workers in Chipotle's restaurant locations. That includes a boost to average hourly wages to $15 by the end of this month, as well as referral bonuses for those bringing new workers on board.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场紧张对某些行业的影响比其他行业更大。那些传统上工资较低的地区在许多方面都陷入了最大的困境。周三，快餐休闲连锁餐厅<b>墨西哥烤肉店</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）表示，将提高菜单上的价格，部分原因是提供更多资金来提高Chipotle餐厅员工的工资。这包括到本月底将平均时薪提高到15美元，以及为那些引进新员工的人提供推荐奖金。</blockquote></p><p> The move follows similar actions by other players in fast food.<b>McDonald's</b>(NYSE:MCD)said last month that it wouldboost hourly pay by roughly 10%on average for tens of thousands of employees. Fast-casual specialist&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants</b>(NYSE:DRI)has also hiked its wages.</p><p><blockquote>此前，快餐业的其他参与者也采取了类似的行动。<b>麦当劳</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCD）上个月表示，将把数万名员工的时薪平均提高约10%。快速休闲专家<b>达顿餐厅</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DRI）也提高了工资。</blockquote></p><p> Nor is the labor shortage limited to restaurant work. Other companies outside of that industry have also boosted wages in an effort to attract new workers and retain existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺也不仅限于餐馆工作。该行业以外的其他公司也提高了工资，以吸引新员工并留住现有员工。</blockquote></p><p> Higher wages for lower-paid workers can have a positive impact on the economy. But if workers aren't taking jobs in some key areas despite wage increases, then labor shortages can lead to shutdowns, which in turn could make the economic recovery fall short of hopes. Given how high investor expectations have been, that could prove problematic for the bull market to continue to run.</p><p><blockquote>低薪工人的更高工资可以对经济产生积极影响。但如果尽管工资上涨，工人们仍没有在一些关键领域找到工作，那么劳动力短缺可能会导致停工，这反过来可能会使经济复苏达不到希望。鉴于投资者的预期有多高，这可能会给牛市的继续运行带来问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/this-threat-could-mean-disaster-for-the-bull-marke/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMG":"墨式烧烤","MCD":"麦当劳"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/this-threat-could-mean-disaster-for-the-bull-marke/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129784455","content_text":"Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy throughout 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 would inevitably be a year of sharp recovery. It's certainly the case that there's plenty of pent-up demand in certain areas of the economy that were shut down for much of the past year. Yet a new threat that few people had accounted for appears to have reared up, and it's making economists start to question whether the recovery will be as strong as everyone had assumed it would be. That, in turn, could bring thebull marketto  a crashing halt.\nAre tight labor markets hamstringing businesses?\nEmployment trends are one of the most important factors that determine the course of the economy. When many people are unemployed, as occurred early in the pandemic, it can spell financial disaster. That was the primary motivation for the massive government assistance packages that came in multiple rounds over the past year. As businesses laid more people off due to shutdowns, the massive threat to the economy warranted a proportionate response.\nNow, the economy is generating new jobs to put people back to work. Unemployment rates have fallen substantially. Yet the new threat facing businesses is finding enough people to hire as economic opportunities expand.\nMany workers have decided to leave their jobs, taking advantage of a tight labor market to find better positions elsewhere. Others still aren't in a position to return to work because of child care or health and safety concerns. Even decisions from some states to bring extra unemployment benefits to an end haven't yet resulted in a substantial uptick in people returning to work.\nBusinesses at risk\nThe impact of tight labor markets is stronger on some industries than on others. Those areas that have traditionally paid lower wages are struggling the most in many ways. On Wednesday, fast-casual restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill(NYSE:CMG)said that it would boost the prices on its menu, in part to provide more money toboost employee wages for workers in Chipotle's restaurant locations. That includes a boost to average hourly wages to $15 by the end of this month, as well as referral bonuses for those bringing new workers on board.\nThe move follows similar actions by other players in fast food.McDonald's(NYSE:MCD)said last month that it wouldboost hourly pay by roughly 10%on average for tens of thousands of employees. Fast-casual specialist Darden Restaurants(NYSE:DRI)has also hiked its wages.\nNor is the labor shortage limited to restaurant work. Other companies outside of that industry have also boosted wages in an effort to attract new workers and retain existing ones.\nHigher wages for lower-paid workers can have a positive impact on the economy. But if workers aren't taking jobs in some key areas despite wage increases, then labor shortages can lead to shutdowns, which in turn could make the economic recovery fall short of hopes. Given how high investor expectations have been, that could prove problematic for the bull market to continue to run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCD":0.9,"CMG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180780963,"gmtCreate":1623226969852,"gmtModify":1631884325477,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope bb can chiong","listText":"Hope bb can chiong","text":"Hope bb can chiong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180780963","repostId":"1113184713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180257032,"gmtCreate":1623208309526,"gmtModify":1634035782346,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice..&nbsp;","listText":"Nice nice..&nbsp;","text":"Nice nice..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180257032","repostId":"2142185293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180256582,"gmtCreate":1623208049646,"gmtModify":1634035784855,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582764777935462","idStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180256582","repostId":"1128909306","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128909306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623193560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128909306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 closes little changed as \"meme stocks\" extend rally<blockquote>随着“模因股”延续涨势，标普500收盘变化不大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128909306","media":"reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of c","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fueled the ongoing meme stocks rally.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-华尔街股市周二难以勉强维持收盘涨幅，因为缺乏明确的市场催化剂使机构投资者保持观望，而散户交易者则推动了模因股的持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the range-bound session near flat or higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow closing within about 0.5% of record highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均在接近持平或走高的区间震荡时段结束，标普500和道指收盘距离纪录高位约0.5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-laded Nasdaq Composite fared best, with Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc providing the biggest boost.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数表现最佳，其中亚马逊公司和苹果公司的推动作用最大。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re waiting for inflation numbers, waiting for more from the (Federal Reserve), waiting for earnings season,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s not a lot motivating the market today.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview资产管理公司的投资组合经理Paul Nolte表示：“我们正在等待通胀数据，等待（美联储）的更多数据，等待财报季。”“今天市场没有太多动力。”</blockquote></p><p>“We’re in this twilight zone until probably right after the Fourth of July, when we see earnings season kick in,” Nolte added.</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特补充道：“我们可能会在7月4日之后才会看到财报季开始。”</blockquote></p><p>The CBOE volatility index, a measure of investor anxiety, touched its lowest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>衡量投资者焦虑程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数触及一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Smallcaps, once again buoyed by the ongoing meme stock retail frenzy, were outperforming their larger counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>小型股再次受到持续的模因股票零售狂潮的提振，表现优于大型股。</blockquote></p><p>Clover Health Investments seized top billing among meme stocks, surging 85.8%, the biggest percentage winner in the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health Investments在meme股票中占据榜首，飙升85.8%，成为纳斯达克涨幅最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Other stocks whose recent explosive trading volumes have been attributed to social media buzz, including GameStop Corp, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc, Workhorse Group and others, ended the session between 7% and 12% higher.</p><p><blockquote>其他近期交易量爆炸性的股票，包括游戏驿站公司、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc、Workhorse Group等，收盘上涨7%至12%。</blockquote></p><p>“(Meme stocks) are where the action is, but you flip it over and look crypto and that’s a mess,” Nolte said. “Now the meme stocks are taking over from crypto as the place to be and it’s all a consequence of very easy monetary policy.”</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特说：“（模因股票）是行动所在，但你把它翻过来，看起来像加密货币，那就一团糟了。”“现在，模因股票正在取代加密货币成为热门，这都是非常宽松的货币政策的结果。”</blockquote></p><p>Reports from the U.S. Labor Department and National Federation of Independent Business appeared to confirm a labor shortage even as demand roars back to life, which could put upward pressure on wages, a precursor to wider inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部和全国独立企业联合会的报告似乎证实了劳动力短缺，尽管需求复苏，这可能会给工资带来上行压力，这是更广泛通胀的前兆。</blockquote></p><p>Market participants look to Thursday’s consumer price index data for further clues regarding inflation, and how it could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for tightening its monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>市场参与者从周四的消费者价格指数数据中寻找有关通胀的进一步线索，以及通胀如何影响美联储收紧货币政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.42 points, or 0.09%, to 34,599.82; the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.74 points, or 0.02%, at 4,227.26; and the Nasdaq Composite added 43.19 points, or 0.31%, at 13,924.91.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌30.42点，或0.09%，报34,599.82点；标普500上涨0.74点，涨幅0.02%，至4,227.26点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨43.19点，涨幅0.31%，至13,924.91点。</blockquote></p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest percentage gain, and utilities suffered the largest loss.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中，非必需消费品涨幅最大，公用事业跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p>Sales of Tesla Inc’s China-made electric cars jumped in May by 29%, marking a 177% year-on-year increase, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The stock erased initial gains on the news to close down 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国乘用车协会的数据，特斯拉公司5月份中国制造的电动汽车销量猛增29%，同比增长177%。受此消息影响，该股抹去了最初的涨幅，收盘下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing Co shares were boosted by Southwest Airlines’ announcement that it had ordered 34 new 737 MAX aircraft, but the planemaker’s shares pared gains to end the session flat.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空宣布订购34架新737 MAX飞机，提振了波音公司股价，但该飞机制造商股价回吐涨幅，收盘持平。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop, the company most closely associated with the Reddit-driven short squeeze phenomenon, is expected to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是与Reddit驱动的轧空现象关系最密切的公司，预计将在周三收盘后公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.74比1；在纳斯达克，1.66比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 172 new highs and 16 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下54个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得172个新高和16个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.75 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为118.2亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 closes little changed as \"meme stocks\" extend rally<blockquote>随着“模因股”延续涨势，标普500收盘变化不大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fueled the ongoing meme stocks rally.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-华尔街股市周二难以勉强维持收盘涨幅，因为缺乏明确的市场催化剂使机构投资者保持观望，而散户交易者则推动了模因股的持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the range-bound session near flat or higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow closing within about 0.5% of record highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均在接近持平或走高的区间震荡时段结束，标普500和道指收盘距离纪录高位约0.5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-laded Nasdaq Composite fared best, with Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc providing the biggest boost.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数表现最佳，其中亚马逊公司和苹果公司的推动作用最大。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re waiting for inflation numbers, waiting for more from the (Federal Reserve), waiting for earnings season,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s not a lot motivating the market today.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview资产管理公司的投资组合经理Paul Nolte表示：“我们正在等待通胀数据，等待（美联储）的更多数据，等待财报季。”“今天市场没有太多动力。”</blockquote></p><p>“We’re in this twilight zone until probably right after the Fourth of July, when we see earnings season kick in,” Nolte added.</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特补充道：“我们可能会在7月4日之后才会看到财报季开始。”</blockquote></p><p>The CBOE volatility index, a measure of investor anxiety, touched its lowest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>衡量投资者焦虑程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数触及一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Smallcaps, once again buoyed by the ongoing meme stock retail frenzy, were outperforming their larger counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>小型股再次受到持续的模因股票零售狂潮的提振，表现优于大型股。</blockquote></p><p>Clover Health Investments seized top billing among meme stocks, surging 85.8%, the biggest percentage winner in the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health Investments在meme股票中占据榜首，飙升85.8%，成为纳斯达克涨幅最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Other stocks whose recent explosive trading volumes have been attributed to social media buzz, including GameStop Corp, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc, Workhorse Group and others, ended the session between 7% and 12% higher.</p><p><blockquote>其他近期交易量爆炸性的股票，包括游戏驿站公司、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc、Workhorse Group等，收盘上涨7%至12%。</blockquote></p><p>“(Meme stocks) are where the action is, but you flip it over and look crypto and that’s a mess,” Nolte said. “Now the meme stocks are taking over from crypto as the place to be and it’s all a consequence of very easy monetary policy.”</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特说：“（模因股票）是行动所在，但你把它翻过来，看起来像加密货币，那就一团糟了。”“现在，模因股票正在取代加密货币成为热门，这都是非常宽松的货币政策的结果。”</blockquote></p><p>Reports from the U.S. Labor Department and National Federation of Independent Business appeared to confirm a labor shortage even as demand roars back to life, which could put upward pressure on wages, a precursor to wider inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部和全国独立企业联合会的报告似乎证实了劳动力短缺，尽管需求复苏，这可能会给工资带来上行压力，这是更广泛通胀的前兆。</blockquote></p><p>Market participants look to Thursday’s consumer price index data for further clues regarding inflation, and how it could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for tightening its monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>市场参与者从周四的消费者价格指数数据中寻找有关通胀的进一步线索，以及通胀如何影响美联储收紧货币政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.42 points, or 0.09%, to 34,599.82; the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.74 points, or 0.02%, at 4,227.26; and the Nasdaq Composite added 43.19 points, or 0.31%, at 13,924.91.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌30.42点，或0.09%，报34,599.82点；标普500上涨0.74点，涨幅0.02%，至4,227.26点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨43.19点，涨幅0.31%，至13,924.91点。</blockquote></p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest percentage gain, and utilities suffered the largest loss.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中，非必需消费品涨幅最大，公用事业跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p>Sales of Tesla Inc’s China-made electric cars jumped in May by 29%, marking a 177% year-on-year increase, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The stock erased initial gains on the news to close down 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国乘用车协会的数据，特斯拉公司5月份中国制造的电动汽车销量猛增29%，同比增长177%。受此消息影响，该股抹去了最初的涨幅，收盘下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing Co shares were boosted by Southwest Airlines’ announcement that it had ordered 34 new 737 MAX aircraft, but the planemaker’s shares pared gains to end the session flat.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空宣布订购34架新737 MAX飞机，提振了波音公司股价，但该飞机制造商股价回吐涨幅，收盘持平。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop, the company most closely associated with the Reddit-driven short squeeze phenomenon, is expected to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是与Reddit驱动的轧空现象关系最密切的公司，预计将在周三收盘后公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.74比1；在纳斯达克，1.66比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 172 new highs and 16 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下54个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得172个新高和16个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.75 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为118.2亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-closes-little-changed-as-meme-stocks-extend-rally-idUSL2N2NQ2NX\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-closes-little-changed-as-meme-stocks-extend-rally-idUSL2N2NQ2NX","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128909306","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fueled the ongoing meme stocks rally.All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the range-bound session near flat or higher, with the S&P 500 and the Dow closing within about 0.5% of record highs.The tech-laded Nasdaq Composite fared best, with Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc providing the biggest boost.“We’re waiting for inflation numbers, waiting for more from the (Federal Reserve), waiting for earnings season,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s not a lot motivating the market today.”“We’re in this twilight zone until probably right after the Fourth of July, when we see earnings season kick in,” Nolte added.The CBOE volatility index, a measure of investor anxiety, touched its lowest level in over a year.Smallcaps, once again buoyed by the ongoing meme stock retail frenzy, were outperforming their larger counterparts.Clover Health Investments seized top billing among meme stocks, surging 85.8%, the biggest percentage winner in the Nasdaq.Other stocks whose recent explosive trading volumes have been attributed to social media buzz, including GameStop Corp, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc, Workhorse Group and others, ended the session between 7% and 12% higher.“(Meme stocks) are where the action is, but you flip it over and look crypto and that’s a mess,” Nolte said. “Now the meme stocks are taking over from crypto as the place to be and it’s all a consequence of very easy monetary policy.”Reports from the U.S. Labor Department and National Federation of Independent Business appeared to confirm a labor shortage even as demand roars back to life, which could put upward pressure on wages, a precursor to wider inflation.Market participants look to Thursday’s consumer price index data for further clues regarding inflation, and how it could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for tightening its monetary policy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.42 points, or 0.09%, to 34,599.82; the S&P 500 gained 0.74 points, or 0.02%, at 4,227.26; and the Nasdaq Composite added 43.19 points, or 0.31%, at 13,924.91.Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest percentage gain, and utilities suffered the largest loss.Sales of Tesla Inc’s China-made electric cars jumped in May by 29%, marking a 177% year-on-year increase, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The stock erased initial gains on the news to close down 0.3%.Boeing Co shares were boosted by Southwest Airlines’ announcement that it had ordered 34 new 737 MAX aircraft, but the planemaker’s shares pared gains to end the session flat.GameStop, the company most closely associated with the Reddit-driven short squeeze phenomenon, is expected to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 172 new highs and 16 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.75 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":180780963,"gmtCreate":1623226969852,"gmtModify":1631884325477,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope bb can chiong","listText":"Hope bb can chiong","text":"Hope bb can chiong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180780963","repostId":"1113184713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162277858,"gmtCreate":1624066605974,"gmtModify":1634023319624,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster... Up down up down","listText":"Roller coaster... Up down up down","text":"Roller coaster... Up down up down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162277858","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184476367,"gmtCreate":1623723205259,"gmtModify":1634029546412,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We love 🍎🍎🍎","listText":"We love 🍎🍎🍎","text":"We love 🍎🍎🍎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184476367","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167720481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是负面投资，而模因股票却呈爆炸式增长，这太荒谬了。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一轮上涨之前买入它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速赚钱上。</li><li>苹果有望在2021财年创造超过3000亿美元的收入和750亿美元的净利润。</li><li>最终，苹果将被投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果(AAPL)已成为负回报投资，表现落后SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021年5月，最热门的基金经理之一Ark Invest的Cathie Wood从ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)出售了近30万股AAPL股票。据报道，ARK一度减持了AAPL的股份，以增持Coinbase(COIN)和DraftKings(DKNG)的股份。one’s ARK等主动管理型基金每天都会监督股票的买卖，并且可能会使用AAPL作为现金的替代品。苹果公司的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为它最好的日子还在前面，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子不会重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为AAPL应该会在2021年下半年突破横盘格局。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对苹果公司在第一季度和第二季度的井喷表现并没有留下深刻印象。苹果公司的股价非但没有受到基本面的支持，反而一直停滞不前。作为苹果公司的多头，令人费解的是，当苹果公司为有史以来最好的一年做准备时，如此多的注意力都集中在模因股票上，而不是像苹果公司这样的公司。在阅读了最近关于MEME股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，2021年AAPL的每股收益为3.08美元，而整个2020财年的每股收益为3.31美元。苹果公司正在为许多指标上有史以来最好的一年奠定基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟花，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并把钱用在了他们的嘴上</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL如何处理其产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品供应以及他们最新的业务领域（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来进步。AAPL拥有类似邪教心态的客户的原因之一是因为AAPL不会停止创新。他们总是站在最前沿，推动技术如何改善个人日常生活的界限。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩下的现金呢？苹果公司押注于自己，并将其股票视为一种投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了价值4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，这表明高级领导层认为持有AAPL股票具有巨大价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司的股票时，每个人都感到兴奋的日子。对于苹果公司来说，回购股票只是一个普通的周一。苹果公司在过去十年中回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长水平。AAPL董事会授权在其现有股票回购计划的基础上追加900亿美元，AAPL在2021年第二季度向股东返还了近230亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，游戏驿站(GME)和AMC院线控股(AMC)的股价大幅上涨。不管GME和AMC为何上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过1,100%，AMC的回报率超过2,000%。任何骑过GME或AMC的人，我祝贺并向你们脱帽致敬。由于AAPL今年表现不佳，市场正受到宏伟妄想的推动，但GME和AMC却绝对呈爆炸式上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损且几乎不赚钱的公司。我知道投资AMC这样的公司可以因波动性而产生巨额回报，但我并不是在批评它。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人妨碍你，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，你会发现他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019年，新冠疫情的影响为零，AMC创造了54.7亿美元的收入，甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了1.491亿美元。AMC上一季度报告的资产负债表上的股本为-23亿美元。现实情况是，AMC可以增发股票并出售以筹集资金。这将改善资产负债表并增加手头现金，从而使AMC受益。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应而被稀释并变得毫无价值。AMC可以发行股票并增强其资产负债表，但这不会解决其盈利问题。AAPL每个季度向股东支付的股息比AMC过去十年产生的利润还要多，但AMC是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买AMC股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC的市盈率无法在过去12个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道AMC一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为一家盈利为负的公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔指数的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用AAPL在2021财年前6个月产生的每股收益3.08美元，他们的市盈率将为40.55。对于TTM，AAPL的每股收益为4.49美元，这使得其市盈率降至28.09。目前，投资者为AAPL每产生1美元的收益支付28.09美元，这对于科技行业来说很低。亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率为62.44，微软(MSFT)为34.93，谷歌(GOOGL)为32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么向上突破是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas的收入为2010.2亿美元，毛利润为824.1亿美元，净利润为523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入（824.1亿美元）的78.51%和2020年净利润总额（523.9亿美元）的91.25%。AAPL有望打破之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则2021年将是AAPL有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是是什么导致了AAPL财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是AAPL的硬件销量从iPhone 12到iPad都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，当AAPL报告Q2时，他们的iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是一年后的事了，虽然AAPL首款5G产品iPhone 12预计会带来推动力，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信AAPL将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是拼图的一部分。服务和可穿戴设备家居和配件正在成为AAPL财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务增加了65.4亿美元（16.46%），全年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），总收入达到537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为AAPL创造了真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务的美妙之处在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>服务正在成为AAPL的本垒打，因为它使其收入组合多元化，不再仅仅依靠实体产品构建。截至2020财年结束时，服务业在短短4年内年收入增加了294.2亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，是2020年收入的60%。AAPL有望在2021财年实现600亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会创造1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备家居和配件继续追随Service的脚步，因为它已成为比iPad和Mac更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的成立，这一类别的收入从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，可穿戴家居和配件已经创造了208.1亿美元的收入，是2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL肯定有望在2021财年从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造超过350亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL有望从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造500亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到2025财年结束时，服务很有可能会产生超过780亿美元的收入，如果两者都以10%的速度增长，可穿戴家居和配件的年收入可能会超过440亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过1000亿美元，到2020年代末，这一数字可能会增长到每年1500亿美元。我对投资者没有涌入苹果公司感到震惊，更可笑的是，没有更详细地讨论对苹果公司数据的强调。当服务业收入达到1000亿美元、可穿戴家居和配件收入达到500亿美元时，AAPL未来的价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新并改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票让一些投资者兴奋不已，同时也让另一群投资者摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买AAPL出售的股票时，为什么人们想要投资AMC。苹果公司本应大幅上涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有起到任何作用。我相信一旦第三季度的数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在9个月内，他们创造的净利润超过了2020年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一轮上涨之前买入更多苹果公司。我是AAPL的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是负面投资，而模因股票却呈爆炸式增长，这太荒谬了。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一轮上涨之前买入它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速赚钱上。</li><li>苹果有望在2021财年创造超过3000亿美元的收入和750亿美元的净利润。</li><li>最终，苹果将被投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果(AAPL)已成为负回报投资，表现落后SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021年5月，最热门的基金经理之一Ark Invest的Cathie Wood从ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)出售了近30万股AAPL股票。据报道，ARK一度减持了AAPL的股份，以增持Coinbase(COIN)和DraftKings(DKNG)的股份。one’s ARK等主动管理型基金每天都会监督股票的买卖，并且可能会使用AAPL作为现金的替代品。苹果公司的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为它最好的日子还在前面，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子不会重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为AAPL应该会在2021年下半年突破横盘格局。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对苹果公司在第一季度和第二季度的井喷表现并没有留下深刻印象。苹果公司的股价非但没有受到基本面的支持，反而一直停滞不前。作为苹果公司的多头，令人费解的是，当苹果公司为有史以来最好的一年做准备时，如此多的注意力都集中在模因股票上，而不是像苹果公司这样的公司。在阅读了最近关于MEME股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，2021年AAPL的每股收益为3.08美元，而整个2020财年的每股收益为3.31美元。苹果公司正在为许多指标上有史以来最好的一年奠定基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟花，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并把钱用在了他们的嘴上</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL如何处理其产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品供应以及他们最新的业务领域（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来进步。AAPL拥有类似邪教心态的客户的原因之一是因为AAPL不会停止创新。他们总是站在最前沿，推动技术如何改善个人日常生活的界限。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩下的现金呢？苹果公司押注于自己，并将其股票视为一种投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了价值4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，这表明高级领导层认为持有AAPL股票具有巨大价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司的股票时，每个人都感到兴奋的日子。对于苹果公司来说，回购股票只是一个普通的周一。苹果公司在过去十年中回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长水平。AAPL董事会授权在其现有股票回购计划的基础上追加900亿美元，AAPL在2021年第二季度向股东返还了近230亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，游戏驿站(GME)和AMC院线控股(AMC)的股价大幅上涨。不管GME和AMC为何上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过1,100%，AMC的回报率超过2,000%。任何骑过GME或AMC的人，我祝贺并向你们脱帽致敬。由于AAPL今年表现不佳，市场正受到宏伟妄想的推动，但GME和AMC却绝对呈爆炸式上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损且几乎不赚钱的公司。我知道投资AMC这样的公司可以因波动性而产生巨额回报，但我并不是在批评它。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人妨碍你，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，你会发现他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019年，新冠疫情的影响为零，AMC创造了54.7亿美元的收入，甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了1.491亿美元。AMC上一季度报告的资产负债表上的股本为-23亿美元。现实情况是，AMC可以增发股票并出售以筹集资金。这将改善资产负债表并增加手头现金，从而使AMC受益。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应而被稀释并变得毫无价值。AMC可以发行股票并增强其资产负债表，但这不会解决其盈利问题。AAPL每个季度向股东支付的股息比AMC过去十年产生的利润还要多，但AMC是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买AMC股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC的市盈率无法在过去12个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道AMC一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为一家盈利为负的公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔指数的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用AAPL在2021财年前6个月产生的每股收益3.08美元，他们的市盈率将为40.55。对于TTM，AAPL的每股收益为4.49美元，这使得其市盈率降至28.09。目前，投资者为AAPL每产生1美元的收益支付28.09美元，这对于科技行业来说很低。亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率为62.44，微软(MSFT)为34.93，谷歌(GOOGL)为32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么向上突破是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas的收入为2010.2亿美元，毛利润为824.1亿美元，净利润为523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入（824.1亿美元）的78.51%和2020年净利润总额（523.9亿美元）的91.25%。AAPL有望打破之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则2021年将是AAPL有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是是什么导致了AAPL财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是AAPL的硬件销量从iPhone 12到iPad都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，当AAPL报告Q2时，他们的iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是一年后的事了，虽然AAPL首款5G产品iPhone 12预计会带来推动力，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信AAPL将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是拼图的一部分。服务和可穿戴设备家居和配件正在成为AAPL财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务增加了65.4亿美元（16.46%），全年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），总收入达到537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为AAPL创造了真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务的美妙之处在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>服务正在成为AAPL的本垒打，因为它使其收入组合多元化，不再仅仅依靠实体产品构建。截至2020财年结束时，服务业在短短4年内年收入增加了294.2亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，是2020年收入的60%。AAPL有望在2021财年实现600亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会创造1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备家居和配件继续追随Service的脚步，因为它已成为比iPad和Mac更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的成立，这一类别的收入从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，可穿戴家居和配件已经创造了208.1亿美元的收入，是2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL肯定有望在2021财年从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造超过350亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL有望从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造500亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到2025财年结束时，服务很有可能会产生超过780亿美元的收入，如果两者都以10%的速度增长，可穿戴家居和配件的年收入可能会超过440亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过1000亿美元，到2020年代末，这一数字可能会增长到每年1500亿美元。我对投资者没有涌入苹果公司感到震惊，更可笑的是，没有更详细地讨论对苹果公司数据的强调。当服务业收入达到1000亿美元、可穿戴家居和配件收入达到500亿美元时，AAPL未来的价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新并改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票让一些投资者兴奋不已，同时也让另一群投资者摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买AAPL出售的股票时，为什么人们想要投资AMC。苹果公司本应大幅上涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有起到任何作用。我相信一旦第三季度的数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在9个月内，他们创造的净利润超过了2020年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一轮上涨之前买入更多苹果公司。我是AAPL的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185100906,"gmtCreate":1623635350805,"gmtModify":1634030896479,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Genting will go up mah?","listText":"Genting will go up mah?","text":"Genting will go up mah?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185100906","repostId":"1158004685","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167264399,"gmtCreate":1624271729011,"gmtModify":1631884666175,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China stock gd","listText":"China stock gd","text":"China stock gd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167264399","repostId":"2145081082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180257032,"gmtCreate":1623208309526,"gmtModify":1634035782346,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice..&nbsp;","listText":"Nice nice..&nbsp;","text":"Nice nice..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180257032","repostId":"2142185293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123904977,"gmtCreate":1624405631899,"gmtModify":1634006715707,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice closing","listText":"Nice closing","text":"Nice closing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123904977","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180256582,"gmtCreate":1623208049646,"gmtModify":1634035784855,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180256582","repostId":"1128909306","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128909306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623193560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128909306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 closes little changed as \"meme stocks\" extend rally<blockquote>随着“模因股”延续涨势，标普500收盘变化不大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128909306","media":"reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of c","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fueled the ongoing meme stocks rally.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-华尔街股市周二难以勉强维持收盘涨幅，因为缺乏明确的市场催化剂使机构投资者保持观望，而散户交易者则推动了模因股的持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the range-bound session near flat or higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow closing within about 0.5% of record highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均在接近持平或走高的区间震荡时段结束，标普500和道指收盘距离纪录高位约0.5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-laded Nasdaq Composite fared best, with Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc providing the biggest boost.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数表现最佳，其中亚马逊公司和苹果公司的推动作用最大。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re waiting for inflation numbers, waiting for more from the (Federal Reserve), waiting for earnings season,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s not a lot motivating the market today.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview资产管理公司的投资组合经理Paul Nolte表示：“我们正在等待通胀数据，等待（美联储）的更多数据，等待财报季。”“今天市场没有太多动力。”</blockquote></p><p>“We’re in this twilight zone until probably right after the Fourth of July, when we see earnings season kick in,” Nolte added.</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特补充道：“我们可能会在7月4日之后才会看到财报季开始。”</blockquote></p><p>The CBOE volatility index, a measure of investor anxiety, touched its lowest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>衡量投资者焦虑程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数触及一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Smallcaps, once again buoyed by the ongoing meme stock retail frenzy, were outperforming their larger counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>小型股再次受到持续的模因股票零售狂潮的提振，表现优于大型股。</blockquote></p><p>Clover Health Investments seized top billing among meme stocks, surging 85.8%, the biggest percentage winner in the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health Investments在meme股票中占据榜首，飙升85.8%，成为纳斯达克涨幅最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Other stocks whose recent explosive trading volumes have been attributed to social media buzz, including GameStop Corp, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc, Workhorse Group and others, ended the session between 7% and 12% higher.</p><p><blockquote>其他近期交易量爆炸性的股票，包括游戏驿站公司、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc、Workhorse Group等，收盘上涨7%至12%。</blockquote></p><p>“(Meme stocks) are where the action is, but you flip it over and look crypto and that’s a mess,” Nolte said. “Now the meme stocks are taking over from crypto as the place to be and it’s all a consequence of very easy monetary policy.”</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特说：“（模因股票）是行动所在，但你把它翻过来，看起来像加密货币，那就一团糟了。”“现在，模因股票正在取代加密货币成为热门，这都是非常宽松的货币政策的结果。”</blockquote></p><p>Reports from the U.S. Labor Department and National Federation of Independent Business appeared to confirm a labor shortage even as demand roars back to life, which could put upward pressure on wages, a precursor to wider inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部和全国独立企业联合会的报告似乎证实了劳动力短缺，尽管需求复苏，这可能会给工资带来上行压力，这是更广泛通胀的前兆。</blockquote></p><p>Market participants look to Thursday’s consumer price index data for further clues regarding inflation, and how it could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for tightening its monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>市场参与者从周四的消费者价格指数数据中寻找有关通胀的进一步线索，以及通胀如何影响美联储收紧货币政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.42 points, or 0.09%, to 34,599.82; the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.74 points, or 0.02%, at 4,227.26; and the Nasdaq Composite added 43.19 points, or 0.31%, at 13,924.91.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌30.42点，或0.09%，报34,599.82点；标普500上涨0.74点，涨幅0.02%，至4,227.26点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨43.19点，涨幅0.31%，至13,924.91点。</blockquote></p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest percentage gain, and utilities suffered the largest loss.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中，非必需消费品涨幅最大，公用事业跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p>Sales of Tesla Inc’s China-made electric cars jumped in May by 29%, marking a 177% year-on-year increase, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The stock erased initial gains on the news to close down 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国乘用车协会的数据，特斯拉公司5月份中国制造的电动汽车销量猛增29%，同比增长177%。受此消息影响，该股抹去了最初的涨幅，收盘下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing Co shares were boosted by Southwest Airlines’ announcement that it had ordered 34 new 737 MAX aircraft, but the planemaker’s shares pared gains to end the session flat.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空宣布订购34架新737 MAX飞机，提振了波音公司股价，但该飞机制造商股价回吐涨幅，收盘持平。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop, the company most closely associated with the Reddit-driven short squeeze phenomenon, is expected to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是与Reddit驱动的轧空现象关系最密切的公司，预计将在周三收盘后公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.74比1；在纳斯达克，1.66比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 172 new highs and 16 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下54个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得172个新高和16个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.75 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为118.2亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 closes little changed as \"meme stocks\" extend rally<blockquote>随着“模因股”延续涨势，标普500收盘变化不大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fueled the ongoing meme stocks rally.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-华尔街股市周二难以勉强维持收盘涨幅，因为缺乏明确的市场催化剂使机构投资者保持观望，而散户交易者则推动了模因股的持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the range-bound session near flat or higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow closing within about 0.5% of record highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均在接近持平或走高的区间震荡时段结束，标普500和道指收盘距离纪录高位约0.5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-laded Nasdaq Composite fared best, with Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc providing the biggest boost.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数表现最佳，其中亚马逊公司和苹果公司的推动作用最大。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re waiting for inflation numbers, waiting for more from the (Federal Reserve), waiting for earnings season,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s not a lot motivating the market today.”</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥Kingsview资产管理公司的投资组合经理Paul Nolte表示：“我们正在等待通胀数据，等待（美联储）的更多数据，等待财报季。”“今天市场没有太多动力。”</blockquote></p><p>“We’re in this twilight zone until probably right after the Fourth of July, when we see earnings season kick in,” Nolte added.</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特补充道：“我们可能会在7月4日之后才会看到财报季开始。”</blockquote></p><p>The CBOE volatility index, a measure of investor anxiety, touched its lowest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>衡量投资者焦虑程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数触及一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Smallcaps, once again buoyed by the ongoing meme stock retail frenzy, were outperforming their larger counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>小型股再次受到持续的模因股票零售狂潮的提振，表现优于大型股。</blockquote></p><p>Clover Health Investments seized top billing among meme stocks, surging 85.8%, the biggest percentage winner in the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health Investments在meme股票中占据榜首，飙升85.8%，成为纳斯达克涨幅最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Other stocks whose recent explosive trading volumes have been attributed to social media buzz, including GameStop Corp, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc, Workhorse Group and others, ended the session between 7% and 12% higher.</p><p><blockquote>其他近期交易量爆炸性的股票，包括游戏驿站公司、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc、Workhorse Group等，收盘上涨7%至12%。</blockquote></p><p>“(Meme stocks) are where the action is, but you flip it over and look crypto and that’s a mess,” Nolte said. “Now the meme stocks are taking over from crypto as the place to be and it’s all a consequence of very easy monetary policy.”</p><p><blockquote>诺尔特说：“（模因股票）是行动所在，但你把它翻过来，看起来像加密货币，那就一团糟了。”“现在，模因股票正在取代加密货币成为热门，这都是非常宽松的货币政策的结果。”</blockquote></p><p>Reports from the U.S. Labor Department and National Federation of Independent Business appeared to confirm a labor shortage even as demand roars back to life, which could put upward pressure on wages, a precursor to wider inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部和全国独立企业联合会的报告似乎证实了劳动力短缺，尽管需求复苏，这可能会给工资带来上行压力，这是更广泛通胀的前兆。</blockquote></p><p>Market participants look to Thursday’s consumer price index data for further clues regarding inflation, and how it could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for tightening its monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>市场参与者从周四的消费者价格指数数据中寻找有关通胀的进一步线索，以及通胀如何影响美联储收紧货币政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.42 points, or 0.09%, to 34,599.82; the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.74 points, or 0.02%, at 4,227.26; and the Nasdaq Composite added 43.19 points, or 0.31%, at 13,924.91.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌30.42点，或0.09%，报34,599.82点；标普500上涨0.74点，涨幅0.02%，至4,227.26点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨43.19点，涨幅0.31%，至13,924.91点。</blockquote></p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest percentage gain, and utilities suffered the largest loss.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中，非必需消费品涨幅最大，公用事业跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p>Sales of Tesla Inc’s China-made electric cars jumped in May by 29%, marking a 177% year-on-year increase, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The stock erased initial gains on the news to close down 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国乘用车协会的数据，特斯拉公司5月份中国制造的电动汽车销量猛增29%，同比增长177%。受此消息影响，该股抹去了最初的涨幅，收盘下跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing Co shares were boosted by Southwest Airlines’ announcement that it had ordered 34 new 737 MAX aircraft, but the planemaker’s shares pared gains to end the session flat.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空宣布订购34架新737 MAX飞机，提振了波音公司股价，但该飞机制造商股价回吐涨幅，收盘持平。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop, the company most closely associated with the Reddit-driven short squeeze phenomenon, is expected to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是与Reddit驱动的轧空现象关系最密切的公司，预计将在周三收盘后公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.74比1；在纳斯达克，1.66比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 172 new highs and 16 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下54个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得172个新高和16个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.75 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为118.2亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-closes-little-changed-as-meme-stocks-extend-rally-idUSL2N2NQ2NX\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-closes-little-changed-as-meme-stocks-extend-rally-idUSL2N2NQ2NX","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128909306","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks struggled to eke out closing gains on Tuesday as a lack of clear market catalysts kept institutional investors on the sidelines, while retail traders fueled the ongoing meme stocks rally.All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the range-bound session near flat or higher, with the S&P 500 and the Dow closing within about 0.5% of record highs.The tech-laded Nasdaq Composite fared best, with Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc providing the biggest boost.“We’re waiting for inflation numbers, waiting for more from the (Federal Reserve), waiting for earnings season,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “There’s not a lot motivating the market today.”“We’re in this twilight zone until probably right after the Fourth of July, when we see earnings season kick in,” Nolte added.The CBOE volatility index, a measure of investor anxiety, touched its lowest level in over a year.Smallcaps, once again buoyed by the ongoing meme stock retail frenzy, were outperforming their larger counterparts.Clover Health Investments seized top billing among meme stocks, surging 85.8%, the biggest percentage winner in the Nasdaq.Other stocks whose recent explosive trading volumes have been attributed to social media buzz, including GameStop Corp, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc, Workhorse Group and others, ended the session between 7% and 12% higher.“(Meme stocks) are where the action is, but you flip it over and look crypto and that’s a mess,” Nolte said. “Now the meme stocks are taking over from crypto as the place to be and it’s all a consequence of very easy monetary policy.”Reports from the U.S. Labor Department and National Federation of Independent Business appeared to confirm a labor shortage even as demand roars back to life, which could put upward pressure on wages, a precursor to wider inflation.Market participants look to Thursday’s consumer price index data for further clues regarding inflation, and how it could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for tightening its monetary policy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.42 points, or 0.09%, to 34,599.82; the S&P 500 gained 0.74 points, or 0.02%, at 4,227.26; and the Nasdaq Composite added 43.19 points, or 0.31%, at 13,924.91.Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, consumer discretionary enjoyed the biggest percentage gain, and utilities suffered the largest loss.Sales of Tesla Inc’s China-made electric cars jumped in May by 29%, marking a 177% year-on-year increase, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The stock erased initial gains on the news to close down 0.3%.Boeing Co shares were boosted by Southwest Airlines’ announcement that it had ordered 34 new 737 MAX aircraft, but the planemaker’s shares pared gains to end the session flat.GameStop, the company most closely associated with the Reddit-driven short squeeze phenomenon, is expected to report quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 172 new highs and 16 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.82 billion shares, compared with the 10.75 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167267115,"gmtCreate":1624271818537,"gmtModify":1634008616797,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167267115","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183323755,"gmtCreate":1623309556377,"gmtModify":1634034716876,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like like&nbsp;","listText":"Like like&nbsp;","text":"Like like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183323755","repostId":"1125480909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162509567,"gmtCreate":1624066679759,"gmtModify":1634023317364,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will this really veocme true?","listText":"Will this really veocme true?","text":"Will this really veocme true?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162509567","repostId":"1138062216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168581157,"gmtCreate":1623978696479,"gmtModify":1634024885834,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"V good.. buy more to wait..&nbsp;","listText":"V good.. buy more to wait..&nbsp;","text":"V good.. buy more to wait..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168581157","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188472661,"gmtCreate":1623460649553,"gmtModify":1634032936178,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Powerpack","listText":"Powerpack","text":"Powerpack","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188472661","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181219700,"gmtCreate":1623395817400,"gmtModify":1634033787893,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aluminum go up... Copper also?","listText":"Aluminum go up... Copper also?","text":"Aluminum go up... Copper also?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181219700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181210255,"gmtCreate":1623395749277,"gmtModify":1634033788959,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meaning copper also go up.?","listText":"Meaning copper also go up.?","text":"Meaning copper also go up.?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181210255","repostId":"2142279140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183323875,"gmtCreate":1623309513397,"gmtModify":1634034717116,"author":{"id":"3582764777935462","authorId":"3582764777935462","name":"bandits272","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1568ffc3f00e02593bd2ef5da7cc59e9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582764777935462","authorIdStr":"3582764777935462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183323875","repostId":"1129784455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129784455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623292155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129784455?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129784455","media":"fool","summary":"Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy","content":"<p>Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy throughout 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 would inevitably be a year of sharp recovery. It's certainly the case that there's plenty of pent-up demand in certain areas of the economy that were shut down for much of the past year. Yet a new threat that few people had accounted for appears to have reared up, and it's making economists start to question whether the recovery will be as strong as everyone had assumed it would be. That, in turn, could bring thebull marketto&nbsp; a crashing halt.</p><p><blockquote>几乎所有人似乎都想当然地认为，在2020年全球经济因新冠肺炎疫情而遭受巨大破坏之后，2021年将不可避免地是大幅复苏的一年。事实上，在过去一年的大部分时间里，某些经济领域存在大量被压抑的需求。然而，一个很少有人考虑到的新威胁似乎已经出现，这让经济学家开始质疑复苏是否会像所有人想象的那样强劲。反过来，这可能会导致牛市戛然而止。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are tight labor markets hamstringing businesses?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>紧张的劳动力市场是否阻碍了企业？</b></blockquote></p><p> Employment trends are one of the most important factors that determine the course of the economy. When many people are unemployed, as occurred early in the pandemic, it can spell financial disaster. That was the primary motivation for the massive government assistance packages that came in multiple rounds over the past year. As businesses laid more people off due to shutdowns, the massive threat to the economy warranted a proportionate response.</p><p><blockquote>就业趋势是决定经济进程的最重要因素之一。当许多人失业时，就像疫情早期发生的那样，这可能意味着金融灾难。这是过去一年多轮大规模政府援助计划的主要动机。随着企业因停工而解雇更多人，对经济的巨大威胁需要采取相应的应对措施。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the economy is generating new jobs to put people back to work. Unemployment rates have fallen substantially. Yet the new threat facing businesses is finding enough people to hire as economic opportunities expand.</p><p><blockquote>现在，经济正在创造新的就业机会，让人们重返工作岗位。失业率大幅下降。然而，随着经济机会的扩大，企业面临的新威胁是找到足够的员工。</blockquote></p><p> Many workers have decided to leave their jobs, taking advantage of a tight labor market to find better positions elsewhere. Others still aren't in a position to return to work because of child care or health and safety concerns. Even decisions from some states to bring extra unemployment benefits to an end haven't yet resulted in a substantial uptick in people returning to work.</p><p><blockquote>许多工人决定离职，利用劳动力市场紧张的机会到别处寻找更好的职位。其他人由于儿童保育或健康和安全问题仍然无法重返工作岗位。即使一些州决定终止额外失业救济金，也尚未导致重返工作岗位的人数大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Businesses at risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面临风险的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> The impact of tight labor markets is stronger on some industries than on others. Those areas that have traditionally paid lower wages are struggling the most in many ways. On Wednesday, fast-casual restaurant chain&nbsp;<b>Chipotle Mexican Grill</b>(NYSE:CMG)said that it would boost the prices on its menu, in part to provide more money toboost employee wages for workers in Chipotle's restaurant locations. That includes a boost to average hourly wages to $15 by the end of this month, as well as referral bonuses for those bringing new workers on board.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场紧张对某些行业的影响比其他行业更大。那些传统上工资较低的地区在许多方面都陷入了最大的困境。周三，快餐休闲连锁餐厅<b>墨西哥烤肉店</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）表示，将提高菜单上的价格，部分原因是提供更多资金来提高Chipotle餐厅员工的工资。这包括到本月底将平均时薪提高到15美元，以及为那些引进新员工的人提供推荐奖金。</blockquote></p><p> The move follows similar actions by other players in fast food.<b>McDonald's</b>(NYSE:MCD)said last month that it wouldboost hourly pay by roughly 10%on average for tens of thousands of employees. Fast-casual specialist&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants</b>(NYSE:DRI)has also hiked its wages.</p><p><blockquote>此前，快餐业的其他参与者也采取了类似的行动。<b>麦当劳</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCD）上个月表示，将把数万名员工的时薪平均提高约10%。快速休闲专家<b>达顿餐厅</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DRI）也提高了工资。</blockquote></p><p> Nor is the labor shortage limited to restaurant work. Other companies outside of that industry have also boosted wages in an effort to attract new workers and retain existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺也不仅限于餐馆工作。该行业以外的其他公司也提高了工资，以吸引新员工并留住现有员工。</blockquote></p><p> Higher wages for lower-paid workers can have a positive impact on the economy. But if workers aren't taking jobs in some key areas despite wage increases, then labor shortages can lead to shutdowns, which in turn could make the economic recovery fall short of hopes. Given how high investor expectations have been, that could prove problematic for the bull market to continue to run.</p><p><blockquote>低薪工人的更高工资可以对经济产生积极影响。但如果尽管工资上涨，工人们仍没有在一些关键领域找到工作，那么劳动力短缺可能会导致停工，这反过来可能会使经济复苏达不到希望。鉴于投资者的预期有多高，这可能会给牛市的继续运行带来问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Threat Could Mean Disaster for the Bull Market in Stocks<blockquote>这种威胁可能意味着股市牛市的灾难</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 10:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy throughout 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 would inevitably be a year of sharp recovery. It's certainly the case that there's plenty of pent-up demand in certain areas of the economy that were shut down for much of the past year. Yet a new threat that few people had accounted for appears to have reared up, and it's making economists start to question whether the recovery will be as strong as everyone had assumed it would be. That, in turn, could bring thebull marketto&nbsp; a crashing halt.</p><p><blockquote>几乎所有人似乎都想当然地认为，在2020年全球经济因新冠肺炎疫情而遭受巨大破坏之后，2021年将不可避免地是大幅复苏的一年。事实上，在过去一年的大部分时间里，某些经济领域存在大量被压抑的需求。然而，一个很少有人考虑到的新威胁似乎已经出现，这让经济学家开始质疑复苏是否会像所有人想象的那样强劲。反过来，这可能会导致牛市戛然而止。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are tight labor markets hamstringing businesses?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>紧张的劳动力市场是否阻碍了企业？</b></blockquote></p><p> Employment trends are one of the most important factors that determine the course of the economy. When many people are unemployed, as occurred early in the pandemic, it can spell financial disaster. That was the primary motivation for the massive government assistance packages that came in multiple rounds over the past year. As businesses laid more people off due to shutdowns, the massive threat to the economy warranted a proportionate response.</p><p><blockquote>就业趋势是决定经济进程的最重要因素之一。当许多人失业时，就像疫情早期发生的那样，这可能意味着金融灾难。这是过去一年多轮大规模政府援助计划的主要动机。随着企业因停工而解雇更多人，对经济的巨大威胁需要采取相应的应对措施。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the economy is generating new jobs to put people back to work. Unemployment rates have fallen substantially. Yet the new threat facing businesses is finding enough people to hire as economic opportunities expand.</p><p><blockquote>现在，经济正在创造新的就业机会，让人们重返工作岗位。失业率大幅下降。然而，随着经济机会的扩大，企业面临的新威胁是找到足够的员工。</blockquote></p><p> Many workers have decided to leave their jobs, taking advantage of a tight labor market to find better positions elsewhere. Others still aren't in a position to return to work because of child care or health and safety concerns. Even decisions from some states to bring extra unemployment benefits to an end haven't yet resulted in a substantial uptick in people returning to work.</p><p><blockquote>许多工人决定离职，利用劳动力市场紧张的机会到别处寻找更好的职位。其他人由于儿童保育或健康和安全问题仍然无法重返工作岗位。即使一些州决定终止额外失业救济金，也尚未导致重返工作岗位的人数大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Businesses at risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面临风险的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> The impact of tight labor markets is stronger on some industries than on others. Those areas that have traditionally paid lower wages are struggling the most in many ways. On Wednesday, fast-casual restaurant chain&nbsp;<b>Chipotle Mexican Grill</b>(NYSE:CMG)said that it would boost the prices on its menu, in part to provide more money toboost employee wages for workers in Chipotle's restaurant locations. That includes a boost to average hourly wages to $15 by the end of this month, as well as referral bonuses for those bringing new workers on board.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场紧张对某些行业的影响比其他行业更大。那些传统上工资较低的地区在许多方面都陷入了最大的困境。周三，快餐休闲连锁餐厅<b>墨西哥烤肉店</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）表示，将提高菜单上的价格，部分原因是提供更多资金来提高Chipotle餐厅员工的工资。这包括到本月底将平均时薪提高到15美元，以及为那些引进新员工的人提供推荐奖金。</blockquote></p><p> The move follows similar actions by other players in fast food.<b>McDonald's</b>(NYSE:MCD)said last month that it wouldboost hourly pay by roughly 10%on average for tens of thousands of employees. Fast-casual specialist&nbsp;<b>Darden Restaurants</b>(NYSE:DRI)has also hiked its wages.</p><p><blockquote>此前，快餐业的其他参与者也采取了类似的行动。<b>麦当劳</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCD）上个月表示，将把数万名员工的时薪平均提高约10%。快速休闲专家<b>达顿餐厅</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DRI）也提高了工资。</blockquote></p><p> Nor is the labor shortage limited to restaurant work. Other companies outside of that industry have also boosted wages in an effort to attract new workers and retain existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺也不仅限于餐馆工作。该行业以外的其他公司也提高了工资，以吸引新员工并留住现有员工。</blockquote></p><p> Higher wages for lower-paid workers can have a positive impact on the economy. But if workers aren't taking jobs in some key areas despite wage increases, then labor shortages can lead to shutdowns, which in turn could make the economic recovery fall short of hopes. Given how high investor expectations have been, that could prove problematic for the bull market to continue to run.</p><p><blockquote>低薪工人的更高工资可以对经济产生积极影响。但如果尽管工资上涨，工人们仍没有在一些关键领域找到工作，那么劳动力短缺可能会导致停工，这反过来可能会使经济复苏达不到希望。鉴于投资者的预期有多高，这可能会给牛市的继续运行带来问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/this-threat-could-mean-disaster-for-the-bull-marke/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CMG":"墨式烧烤","MCD":"麦当劳"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/this-threat-could-mean-disaster-for-the-bull-marke/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129784455","content_text":"Nearly everyone had seemed to take for granted that after the huge disruptions to the global economy throughout 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 would inevitably be a year of sharp recovery. It's certainly the case that there's plenty of pent-up demand in certain areas of the economy that were shut down for much of the past year. Yet a new threat that few people had accounted for appears to have reared up, and it's making economists start to question whether the recovery will be as strong as everyone had assumed it would be. That, in turn, could bring thebull marketto  a crashing halt.\nAre tight labor markets hamstringing businesses?\nEmployment trends are one of the most important factors that determine the course of the economy. When many people are unemployed, as occurred early in the pandemic, it can spell financial disaster. That was the primary motivation for the massive government assistance packages that came in multiple rounds over the past year. As businesses laid more people off due to shutdowns, the massive threat to the economy warranted a proportionate response.\nNow, the economy is generating new jobs to put people back to work. Unemployment rates have fallen substantially. Yet the new threat facing businesses is finding enough people to hire as economic opportunities expand.\nMany workers have decided to leave their jobs, taking advantage of a tight labor market to find better positions elsewhere. Others still aren't in a position to return to work because of child care or health and safety concerns. Even decisions from some states to bring extra unemployment benefits to an end haven't yet resulted in a substantial uptick in people returning to work.\nBusinesses at risk\nThe impact of tight labor markets is stronger on some industries than on others. Those areas that have traditionally paid lower wages are struggling the most in many ways. On Wednesday, fast-casual restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill(NYSE:CMG)said that it would boost the prices on its menu, in part to provide more money toboost employee wages for workers in Chipotle's restaurant locations. That includes a boost to average hourly wages to $15 by the end of this month, as well as referral bonuses for those bringing new workers on board.\nThe move follows similar actions by other players in fast food.McDonald's(NYSE:MCD)said last month that it wouldboost hourly pay by roughly 10%on average for tens of thousands of employees. Fast-casual specialist Darden Restaurants(NYSE:DRI)has also hiked its wages.\nNor is the labor shortage limited to restaurant work. Other companies outside of that industry have also boosted wages in an effort to attract new workers and retain existing ones.\nHigher wages for lower-paid workers can have a positive impact on the economy. But if workers aren't taking jobs in some key areas despite wage increases, then labor shortages can lead to shutdowns, which in turn could make the economic recovery fall short of hopes. Given how high investor expectations have been, that could prove problematic for the bull market to continue to run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCD":0.9,"CMG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}