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2021-08-19

Sksksk

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2021-08-18

Djdjdj

U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三开盘走低</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Jsjsjs

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2021-08-16

Jdjdje

Some vaccine stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>部分疫苗股早盘下跌</blockquote>

2021-07-31

Ajajaj

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2021-07-30

Wowowow

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2021-07-29

Jsjsj

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2021-07-28

Hshshs

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2021-07-27

Kdkdkkd

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2021-07-26

Lell

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2021-07-25

Keke

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2021-07-24

Jsjsj

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2021-07-23

Lol

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2021-07-22

Lel

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2021-07-20

Honggan

(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote>

2021-07-19

Jejejsjs

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-18

Kekkeke

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2021-07-17

Ll

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2021-07-16

Gg

Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-07-15

Keksk

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629293513,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1173506975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三开盘走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173506975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.Since that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to announce a taperin","content":"<p>(Aug 18)&nbsp;U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes.</p><p><blockquote>（8月18日）美国由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，周三股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数在周二结束了连续5天的上涨势头后，下跌约120点，跌幅0.3%。标普500指数下跌 0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数接近持平线。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于美国东部时间下午 2 点公布 7 月会议的会议纪要。市场参与者将寻找有关央行何时开始缩减每月债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Since that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to&nbsp;announce a tapering in September&nbsp;and begin it in October. The&nbsp;10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;inched slightly higher to 1.28% on Wednesday ahead of the release.</p><p><blockquote>自 7 月份会议以来，美联储内部越来越支持在 9 月份宣布缩减规模，并在 10 月份开始缩减规模。周三，10 年期国债收益率在发布前小幅走高至 1.28%。</blockquote></p><p> Housing starts fell 7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units, well below economists’ expectations.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份新屋开工率下降 7%，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 153.4 万套，远低于经济学家的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also waded through more major retail earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还仔细阅读了更多主要的零售收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Target pulled back even after&nbsp;beating on second-quarter earnings. The retailer’s profit and revenue topped expectations and the company raised its forecast for the second half of the year, citing a good start to back-to-school spending. Target shares were up 44% this year through Tuesday, so some investors may be taking profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度盈利超出预期，塔吉特股价仍回落。该零售商的利润和收入超出了预期，公司上调了对下半年的预测，理由是返校支出有了良好的开端。截至周二，目标股价今年上涨了 44%，因此一些投资者可能会获利了结。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Lowe’s jumped more than 3% after&nbsp;earnings last quarter topped expectations, with higher sales to home professionals.</p><p><blockquote>劳氏上季度盈利超出预期，对家居专业人士的销售额增加，股价大涨 3% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> ViacomCBS shares popped around 2% after Wells Fargo&nbsp;upgraded the stock, saying it can soar more than 50% on the back of strong streaming growth and possible industry consolidation.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行上调维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司股价后，维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司 (ViacomCBS) 股价上涨约 2%，称在强劲的流媒体增长和可能的行业整合的推动下，维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司 (ViacomCBS) 股价可能飙升 50% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market is way overdue for a correction. Covid cases continue to spike higher darkening economic reopenings, consumer data shockingly has collapsed recently — including consumer confidence last Friday and retail sales and homebuilders’ sentiment [Tuesday] — several stocks have stopped reacting positively to good earnings, inflation reports remain hot, and Federal Reserve taper talk is everywhere,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市早就该回调了。Covid 病例继续加剧经济重新开放的阴影，消费者数据最近令人震惊地暴跌--包括上周五的消费者信心以及（周二）的零售销售和住宅建筑商情绪--一些股票已经停止对良好的盈利做出积极反应，通胀报告依然火爆，美联储缩减开支的言论无处不在，”Leuthold Group 首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三开盘走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三开盘走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 18)&nbsp;U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes.</p><p><blockquote>（8月18日）美国由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，周三股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数在周二结束了连续5天的上涨势头后，下跌约120点，跌幅0.3%。标普500指数下跌 0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数接近持平线。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于美国东部时间下午 2 点公布 7 月会议的会议纪要。市场参与者将寻找有关央行何时开始缩减每月债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Since that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to&nbsp;announce a tapering in September&nbsp;and begin it in October. The&nbsp;10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;inched slightly higher to 1.28% on Wednesday ahead of the release.</p><p><blockquote>自 7 月份会议以来，美联储内部越来越支持在 9 月份宣布缩减规模，并在 10 月份开始缩减规模。周三，10 年期国债收益率在发布前小幅走高至 1.28%。</blockquote></p><p> Housing starts fell 7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units, well below economists’ expectations.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份新屋开工率下降 7%，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 153.4 万套，远低于经济学家的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also waded through more major retail earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还仔细阅读了更多主要的零售收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Target pulled back even after&nbsp;beating on second-quarter earnings. The retailer’s profit and revenue topped expectations and the company raised its forecast for the second half of the year, citing a good start to back-to-school spending. Target shares were up 44% this year through Tuesday, so some investors may be taking profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度盈利超出预期，塔吉特股价仍回落。该零售商的利润和收入超出了预期，公司上调了对下半年的预测，理由是返校支出有了良好的开端。截至周二，目标股价今年上涨了 44%，因此一些投资者可能会获利了结。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Lowe’s jumped more than 3% after&nbsp;earnings last quarter topped expectations, with higher sales to home professionals.</p><p><blockquote>劳氏上季度盈利超出预期，对家居专业人士的销售额增加，股价大涨 3% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> ViacomCBS shares popped around 2% after Wells Fargo&nbsp;upgraded the stock, saying it can soar more than 50% on the back of strong streaming growth and possible industry consolidation.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行上调维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司股价后，维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司 (ViacomCBS) 股价上涨约 2%，称在强劲的流媒体增长和可能的行业整合的推动下，维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司 (ViacomCBS) 股价可能飙升 50% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market is way overdue for a correction. Covid cases continue to spike higher darkening economic reopenings, consumer data shockingly has collapsed recently — including consumer confidence last Friday and retail sales and homebuilders’ sentiment [Tuesday] — several stocks have stopped reacting positively to good earnings, inflation reports remain hot, and Federal Reserve taper talk is everywhere,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市早就该回调了。Covid 病例继续加剧经济重新开放的阴影，消费者数据最近令人震惊地暴跌--包括上周五的消费者信心以及（周二）的零售销售和住宅建筑商情绪--一些股票已经停止对良好的盈利做出积极反应，通胀报告依然火爆，美联储缩减开支的言论无处不在，”Leuthold Group 首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173506975","content_text":"(Aug 18) U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.\nThe Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.\nSince that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to announce a tapering in September and begin it in October. The 10-year Treasury yield inched slightly higher to 1.28% on Wednesday ahead of the release.\nHousing starts fell 7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units, well below economists’ expectations.\nInvestors also waded through more major retail earnings reports.\nShares of Target pulled back even after beating on second-quarter earnings. The retailer’s profit and revenue topped expectations and the company raised its forecast for the second half of the year, citing a good start to back-to-school spending. Target shares were up 44% this year through Tuesday, so some investors may be taking profits.\nShares of Lowe’s jumped more than 3% after earnings last quarter topped expectations, with higher sales to home professionals.\nViacomCBS shares popped around 2% after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock, saying it can soar more than 50% on the back of strong streaming growth and possible industry consolidation.\n“The stock market is way overdue for a correction. Covid cases continue to spike higher darkening economic reopenings, consumer data shockingly has collapsed recently — including consumer confidence last Friday and retail sales and homebuilders’ sentiment [Tuesday] — several stocks have stopped reacting positively to good earnings, inflation reports remain hot, and Federal Reserve taper talk is everywhere,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833891344,"gmtCreate":1629213767888,"gmtModify":1631891400516,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jsjsjs","listText":"Jsjsjs","text":"Jsjsjs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833891344","repostId":"2160207855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839348200,"gmtCreate":1629123962400,"gmtModify":1631891400517,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jdjdje","listText":"Jdjdje","text":"Jdjdje","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839348200","repostId":"1121898790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121898790","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629123621,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121898790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 22:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some vaccine stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>部分疫苗股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121898790","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16) Some vaccine stocks fell in morning trading.","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Some&nbsp;vaccine stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）早盘部分疫苗股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e26b0fb712c8d2f4ca82ce140a9433\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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trading<blockquote>部分疫苗股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 22:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Some&nbsp;vaccine stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）早盘部分疫苗股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e26b0fb712c8d2f4ca82ce140a9433\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121898790","content_text":"(Aug 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20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112457513","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, an","content":"<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪创11个月新低的情况下，分析师仍预计6月份新屋开工量和许可证量都将上升……他们说对了一半!</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工率环比飙升6.3%（远远超过环比+1.2%的预期），但是……建筑许可，当然是前瞻性的，连续第三个月下降，环比暴跌5.1%（远远低于+0.7%的环比预期）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于起点，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，单户住宅开工量增长6.3%，达到1.160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工量增长6.8%，达到47.4万，为2020年7月以来的最高水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单户许可证下降了6.3%，至1.063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多户家庭许可证下降 1.6%，至 48.3 万萨尔，为 2020 年 12 月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这对未来来说不是一幅美好的画面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加大建设力度的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓将建筑商的信心推至 7 月份的 11 个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后的库存紧缩导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的 71% 消费者表示价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因之一</b>根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 20:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪创11个月新低的情况下，分析师仍预计6月份新屋开工量和许可证量都将上升……他们说对了一半!</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工率环比飙升6.3%（远远超过环比+1.2%的预期），但是……建筑许可，当然是前瞻性的，连续第三个月下降，环比暴跌5.1%（远远低于+0.7%的环比预期）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于起点，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，单户住宅开工量增长6.3%，达到1.160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工量增长6.8%，达到47.4万，为2020年7月以来的最高水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单户许可证下降了6.3%，至1.063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多户家庭许可证下降 1.6%，至 48.3 万萨尔，为 2020 年 12 月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这对未来来说不是一幅美好的画面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加大建设力度的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓将建筑商的信心推至 7 月份的 11 个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后的库存紧缩导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的 71% 消费者表示价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因之一</b>根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112457513","content_text":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!\nAfter a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThis pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...\nSource: Bloomberg\nUnder the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...\n\nBut Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.\nThis is not a pretty picture for the future.\nExorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.\nAn inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.A record 71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured, according to July data from the University of Michigan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171953312,"gmtCreate":1626703449436,"gmtModify":1633924795480,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jejejsjs","listText":"Jejejsjs","text":"Jejejsjs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171953312","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173941064,"gmtCreate":1626607170858,"gmtModify":1633925527027,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kekkeke","listText":"Kekkeke","text":"Kekkeke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173941064","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179608024,"gmtCreate":1626510364668,"gmtModify":1633926120211,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ll","listText":"Ll","text":"Ll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179608024","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170255543,"gmtCreate":1626438760282,"gmtModify":1633926765139,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170255543","repostId":"1175286653","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175286653","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626437220,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175286653?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175286653","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Friday, with investors piling on economically sensitive ene","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Friday, with investors piling on economically sensitive energy, banks and travel stocks ahead of key retail sales data that would shed light on the strength of the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五小幅走高，投资者在关键零售销售数据公布之前大量买入对经济敏感的能源、银行和旅游股票，这些数据将揭示经济复苏的力度。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 35 points, or 0.10%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 25.5 points, or 0.17%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:05，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 35 点，涨幅 0.10%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 6 点，涨幅 0.14%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 25.5 点，涨幅 0.17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8c94dfebffda72664343c6eec4cbdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*资料来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Commerce Department’s report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show U.S. retail sales rose marginally in June after dropping 1.3% in May.</p><p><blockquote>美国商务部将于美国东部时间上午 8:30 发布的报告预计将显示，美国零售额在 5 月份下降 1.3% 后，6 月份将小幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Markets have largely cheered a steady recovery in the labor market this year, but concerns about higher inflation due to a faster-than-expected rebound has hurt sentiment, with investors oscillating between “value” and tech-heavy “growth” names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>市场在很大程度上为今年劳动力市场的稳步复苏欢欣鼓舞，但对因反弹速度快于预期而导致通胀上升的担忧打击了市场情绪，投资者在过去几个交易日中在 “价值 ”和科技股密集的 “增长 ”名称之间摇摆不定。</blockquote></p><p> Rate-sensitive lenders Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp rose between 0.2% and 0.3%, tracking a rise in benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.</p><p><blockquote>对利率敏感的银行花旗集团、摩根大通、高盛集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行股价上涨 0.2% 至 0.3%，跟踪基准 10 年期国债收益率的上升。</blockquote></p><p> Oil stocks Chevron Corp, Diamondback Energy Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp, Halliburton Co, Schlumberger NV and Occidental Petroleum Corp gained between 0.7% and 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>石油股雪佛龙公司、响尾蛇能源公司、埃克森美孚公司、哈里伯顿公司、斯伦贝谢公司和西方石油公司上涨0.7%至0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a>– The drug maker's shares surged 7.3% in the premarket on news that the stock would be included in the S&amp;P 500 as of July 21st. It will replaceAlexion Pharmaceuticals, which is being acquired byAstraZeneca(AZN).</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">现代公司。</a>– 该制药商的股价在盘前飙升 7.3%，原因是该股票将于 7 月 21 日被纳入标普500的消息传出。它将取代被比亚斯利康 (AZN) 收购的 Alexion Pharmaceuticals。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">DiDi Global Inc.</a> – Shares of the China-based ride-hailing company slid 5.5% in premarket action after Didi was the subject of an onsite cybersecurity review from officials of at least 7 different government departments.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴全球公司。</a>– 滴滴受到至少 7 个不同政府部门官员的现场网络安全审查后，这家中国网约车公司的股价在盘前下跌 5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>– So-called \"meme stocks\" continued their wide swings in the premarket, with AMC up 4.6% and GameStop jumping 3.9%. The movie theater operator's stock rose for just the second time in ten sessions Thursday, while the videogame retailer is riding a five-session losing streak and its stock has been down in nine of the past ten trading days.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>– 所谓的“模因股”在盘前继续大幅波动，AMC 上涨 4.6%，游戏驿站上涨 3.9%。这家电影院运营商的股价周四在十个交易日中第二次上涨，而这家视频游戏零售商则连续五个交易日下跌，其股价在过去十个交易日中有九个交易日下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a> ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruise Line</a> – Cruise stocks rose in the premarket after Canada said it would allow large cruise ships to resume visiting the country in November. Carnival added 1.2%, Royal Caribbean gained 1.1% and Norwegian was up 1.7%.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">狂欢节</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮公司</a>– 加拿大表示将允许大型游轮于 11 月恢复访问该国后，邮轮股在盘前上涨。嘉年华上涨 1.2%，皇家加勒比上涨 1.1%，挪威上涨 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> – Intel is exploring a deal to buy fellow semiconductor maker GlobalFoundries, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. Such a transaction could potentially value GlobalFoundries at about $30 billion, although there is no guarantee a deal will be finalized. Intel rose 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>– 据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，英特尔正在探索收购同为半导体制造商的 GlobalFoundries。这样的交易可能会给 GlobalFoundries 带来约 300 亿美元的价值，尽管不能保证交易一定会完成。英特尔在盘前交易中上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">fuboTV Inc.</a> – Shares of the live-sports video streaming company surged 4.7% in the premarket after its Fubo Gaming subsidiary struck a market access agreement with casino operator Cordish Companies for its planned mobile Fubo Sportsbook in Pennsylvania.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">富博电视公司。</a>– 这家直播体育视频流公司的股价在盘前飙升 4.7%，此前其 Fubo Gaming 子公司与赌场运营商 Cordish Companies 就其计划在宾夕法尼亚州推出的移动 Fubo Sportsbook 达成了市场准入协议。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP\">Molson Coors</a> – The beer brewer announced it would resume paying quarterly dividends, with a planned payout of 34 cents per share payable on September 17 to shareholders of record as of August 30. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP.A\">Molson Coors</a> had suspended its dividend last May as it dealt with the financial impact of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP\">莫尔森·库尔斯</a>– 这家啤酒酿造商宣布将恢复支付季度股息，计划于 9 月 17 日向截至 8 月 30 日登记在册的股东支付每股 34 美分。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP.A\">莫尔森·库尔斯</a>去年五月，为了应对疫情的财务影响，该公司暂停了股息。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors Corp.</a> – The electric truck maker said it is under investigation by federal prosecutors in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>, who are looking into Lordstown's vehicle pre-orders as well as its merger with special purpose acquisition company DiamondPeak Holdings last October. Lordstown lost 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">洛兹敦汽车公司。</a>– 这家电动卡车制造商表示，联邦检察官正在对其进行调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>他们正在调查 Lordstown 的汽车预购以及去年 10 月与特殊目的收购公司 DiamondPeak Holdings 的合并。洛兹敦在盘前交易中下跌 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXT\">Textron</a>– The stock was added to the \"Conviction Buy\" list at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, which points to a strengthening market for business jets and consensus estimates that it feels are too low.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXT\">德事隆</a>– 该股于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>这表明公务机市场正在走强，但普遍预期过低。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">The Honest Company, Inc.</a> – Shares of Honest Company rose 2.4% in the premarket after the maker of personal care products was upgraded to \"buy\" from \"hold\" at Loop Capital Markets. Loop said shares are now at an attractive level after a recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">诚实公司。</a>– 在 Loop Capital Markets 将个人护理产品制造商 Honest Company 的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”后，其股价在盘前上涨 2.4%。Loop 表示，经过最近的回调，股价目前处于有吸引力的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation Entertainment</a> – The live entertainment producer was rated \"buy\" in new coverage at Goldman Sachs, which said Live Nation is poised to benefit from an expected surge in concert activity. Live Nation added 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation娱乐</a>– 在高盛的新报道中，这位现场娱乐制作人被评为“买入”，高盛表示，Live Nation 有望从音乐会活动的预期激增中受益。Live Nation 在盘前交易中上涨 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 20:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Friday, with investors piling on economically sensitive energy, banks and travel stocks ahead of key retail sales data that would shed light on the strength of the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五小幅走高，投资者在关键零售销售数据公布之前大量买入对经济敏感的能源、银行和旅游股票，这些数据将揭示经济复苏的力度。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 35 points, or 0.10%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 25.5 points, or 0.17%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:05，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 35 点，涨幅 0.10%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 6 点，涨幅 0.14%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 25.5 点，涨幅 0.17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8c94dfebffda72664343c6eec4cbdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*资料来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Commerce Department’s report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show U.S. retail sales rose marginally in June after dropping 1.3% in May.</p><p><blockquote>美国商务部将于美国东部时间上午 8:30 发布的报告预计将显示，美国零售额在 5 月份下降 1.3% 后，6 月份将小幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Markets have largely cheered a steady recovery in the labor market this year, but concerns about higher inflation due to a faster-than-expected rebound has hurt sentiment, with investors oscillating between “value” and tech-heavy “growth” names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>市场在很大程度上为今年劳动力市场的稳步复苏欢欣鼓舞，但对因反弹速度快于预期而导致通胀上升的担忧打击了市场情绪，投资者在过去几个交易日中在 “价值 ”和科技股密集的 “增长 ”名称之间摇摆不定。</blockquote></p><p> Rate-sensitive lenders Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp rose between 0.2% and 0.3%, tracking a rise in benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.</p><p><blockquote>对利率敏感的银行花旗集团、摩根大通、高盛集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行股价上涨 0.2% 至 0.3%，跟踪基准 10 年期国债收益率的上升。</blockquote></p><p> Oil stocks Chevron Corp, Diamondback Energy Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp, Halliburton Co, Schlumberger NV and Occidental Petroleum Corp gained between 0.7% and 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>石油股雪佛龙公司、响尾蛇能源公司、埃克森美孚公司、哈里伯顿公司、斯伦贝谢公司和西方石油公司上涨0.7%至0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a>– The drug maker's shares surged 7.3% in the premarket on news that the stock would be included in the S&amp;P 500 as of July 21st. It will replaceAlexion Pharmaceuticals, which is being acquired byAstraZeneca(AZN).</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">现代公司。</a>– 该制药商的股价在盘前飙升 7.3%，原因是该股票将于 7 月 21 日被纳入标普500的消息传出。它将取代被比亚斯利康 (AZN) 收购的 Alexion Pharmaceuticals。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">DiDi Global Inc.</a> – Shares of the China-based ride-hailing company slid 5.5% in premarket action after Didi was the subject of an onsite cybersecurity review from officials of at least 7 different government departments.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴全球公司。</a>– 滴滴受到至少 7 个不同政府部门官员的现场网络安全审查后，这家中国网约车公司的股价在盘前下跌 5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>– So-called \"meme stocks\" continued their wide swings in the premarket, with AMC up 4.6% and GameStop jumping 3.9%. The movie theater operator's stock rose for just the second time in ten sessions Thursday, while the videogame retailer is riding a five-session losing streak and its stock has been down in nine of the past ten trading days.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>– 所谓的“模因股”在盘前继续大幅波动，AMC 上涨 4.6%，游戏驿站上涨 3.9%。这家电影院运营商的股价周四在十个交易日中第二次上涨，而这家视频游戏零售商则连续五个交易日下跌，其股价在过去十个交易日中有九个交易日下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a> ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruise Line</a> – Cruise stocks rose in the premarket after Canada said it would allow large cruise ships to resume visiting the country in November. Carnival added 1.2%, Royal Caribbean gained 1.1% and Norwegian was up 1.7%.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">狂欢节</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮公司</a>– 加拿大表示将允许大型游轮于 11 月恢复访问该国后，邮轮股在盘前上涨。嘉年华上涨 1.2%，皇家加勒比上涨 1.1%，挪威上涨 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> – Intel is exploring a deal to buy fellow semiconductor maker GlobalFoundries, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. Such a transaction could potentially value GlobalFoundries at about $30 billion, although there is no guarantee a deal will be finalized. Intel rose 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>– 据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，英特尔正在探索收购同为半导体制造商的 GlobalFoundries。这样的交易可能会给 GlobalFoundries 带来约 300 亿美元的价值，尽管不能保证交易一定会完成。英特尔在盘前交易中上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">fuboTV Inc.</a> – Shares of the live-sports video streaming company surged 4.7% in the premarket after its Fubo Gaming subsidiary struck a market access agreement with casino operator Cordish Companies for its planned mobile Fubo Sportsbook in Pennsylvania.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">富博电视公司。</a>– 这家直播体育视频流公司的股价在盘前飙升 4.7%，此前其 Fubo Gaming 子公司与赌场运营商 Cordish Companies 就其计划在宾夕法尼亚州推出的移动 Fubo Sportsbook 达成了市场准入协议。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP\">Molson Coors</a> – The beer brewer announced it would resume paying quarterly dividends, with a planned payout of 34 cents per share payable on September 17 to shareholders of record as of August 30. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP.A\">Molson Coors</a> had suspended its dividend last May as it dealt with the financial impact of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP\">莫尔森·库尔斯</a>– 这家啤酒酿造商宣布将恢复支付季度股息，计划于 9 月 17 日向截至 8 月 30 日登记在册的股东支付每股 34 美分。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAP.A\">莫尔森·库尔斯</a>去年五月，为了应对疫情的财务影响，该公司暂停了股息。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors Corp.</a> – The electric truck maker said it is under investigation by federal prosecutors in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>, who are looking into Lordstown's vehicle pre-orders as well as its merger with special purpose acquisition company DiamondPeak Holdings last October. Lordstown lost 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">洛兹敦汽车公司。</a>– 这家电动卡车制造商表示，联邦检察官正在对其进行调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>他们正在调查 Lordstown 的汽车预购以及去年 10 月与特殊目的收购公司 DiamondPeak Holdings 的合并。洛兹敦在盘前交易中下跌 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXT\">Textron</a>– The stock was added to the \"Conviction Buy\" list at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, which points to a strengthening market for business jets and consensus estimates that it feels are too low.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXT\">德事隆</a>– 该股于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>这表明公务机市场正在走强，但普遍预期过低。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">The Honest Company, Inc.</a> – Shares of Honest Company rose 2.4% in the premarket after the maker of personal care products was upgraded to \"buy\" from \"hold\" at Loop Capital Markets. Loop said shares are now at an attractive level after a recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">诚实公司。</a>– 在 Loop Capital Markets 将个人护理产品制造商 Honest Company 的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”后，其股价在盘前上涨 2.4%。Loop 表示，经过最近的回调，股价目前处于有吸引力的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation Entertainment</a> – The live entertainment producer was rated \"buy\" in new coverage at Goldman Sachs, which said Live Nation is poised to benefit from an expected surge in concert activity. Live Nation added 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation娱乐</a>– 在高盛的新报道中，这位现场娱乐制作人被评为“买入”，高盛表示，Live Nation 有望从音乐会活动的预期激增中受益。Live Nation 在盘前交易中上涨 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175286653","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Friday, with investors piling on economically sensitive energy, banks and travel stocks ahead of key retail sales data that would shed light on the strength of the economic recovery.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 35 points, or 0.10%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 25.5 points, or 0.17%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nThe Commerce Department’s report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show U.S. retail sales rose marginally in June after dropping 1.3% in May.\nMarkets have largely cheered a steady recovery in the labor market this year, but concerns about higher inflation due to a faster-than-expected rebound has hurt sentiment, with investors oscillating between “value” and tech-heavy “growth” names in the past few sessions.\nRate-sensitive lenders Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp rose between 0.2% and 0.3%, tracking a rise in benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.\nOil stocks Chevron Corp, Diamondback Energy Inc, Exxon Mobil Corp, Halliburton Co, Schlumberger NV and Occidental Petroleum Corp gained between 0.7% and 0.9%.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nModerna, Inc.– The drug maker's shares surged 7.3% in the premarket on news that the stock would be included in the S&P 500 as of July 21st. It will replaceAlexion Pharmaceuticals, which is being acquired byAstraZeneca(AZN).\nDiDi Global Inc. – Shares of the China-based ride-hailing company slid 5.5% in premarket action after Didi was the subject of an onsite cybersecurity review from officials of at least 7 different government departments.\nAMC Entertainment,GameStop– So-called \"meme stocks\" continued their wide swings in the premarket, with AMC up 4.6% and GameStop jumping 3.9%. The movie theater operator's stock rose for just the second time in ten sessions Thursday, while the videogame retailer is riding a five-session losing streak and its stock has been down in nine of the past ten trading days.\nCarnivalRoyal Caribbean Cruises ,Norwegian Cruise Line – Cruise stocks rose in the premarket after Canada said it would allow large cruise ships to resume visiting the country in November. Carnival added 1.2%, Royal Caribbean gained 1.1% and Norwegian was up 1.7%.\nIntel – Intel is exploring a deal to buy fellow semiconductor maker GlobalFoundries, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. Such a transaction could potentially value GlobalFoundries at about $30 billion, although there is no guarantee a deal will be finalized. Intel rose 1% in premarket trading.\nfuboTV Inc. – Shares of the live-sports video streaming company surged 4.7% in the premarket after its Fubo Gaming subsidiary struck a market access agreement with casino operator Cordish Companies for its planned mobile Fubo Sportsbook in Pennsylvania.\nMolson Coors – The beer brewer announced it would resume paying quarterly dividends, with a planned payout of 34 cents per share payable on September 17 to shareholders of record as of August 30. Molson Coors had suspended its dividend last May as it dealt with the financial impact of the pandemic.\nLordstown Motors Corp. – The electric truck maker said it is under investigation by federal prosecutors in New York, who are looking into Lordstown's vehicle pre-orders as well as its merger with special purpose acquisition company DiamondPeak Holdings last October. Lordstown lost 1% in premarket trading.\nTextron– The stock was added to the \"Conviction Buy\" list at Goldman Sachs, which points to a strengthening market for business jets and consensus estimates that it feels are too low.\nThe Honest Company, Inc. – Shares of Honest Company rose 2.4% in the premarket after the maker of personal care products was upgraded to \"buy\" from \"hold\" at Loop Capital Markets. Loop said shares are now at an attractive level after a recent pullback.\nLive Nation Entertainment – The live entertainment producer was rated \"buy\" in new coverage at Goldman Sachs, which said Live Nation is poised to benefit from an expected surge in concert activity. Live Nation added 2.6% in premarket 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16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179608024,"gmtCreate":1626510364668,"gmtModify":1633926120211,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ll","listText":"Ll","text":"Ll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179608024","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185794804,"gmtCreate":1623672214608,"gmtModify":1634030390886,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nihaomoa","listText":"Nihaomoa","text":"Nihaomoa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185794804","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189954962,"gmtCreate":1623242050156,"gmtModify":1634035475288,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nihao","listText":"Nihao","text":"Nihao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189954962","repostId":"1150769391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150769391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623239634,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150769391?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150769391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. eco","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于投资者考虑美国经济复苏的数据更加复杂，周三上午股票期货涨跌互现。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“迷因股票”的复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票三叶草健康将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，各大银行的股票面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国周三股指期货几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者正在等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 7:48，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 54 点，跌幅 0.16%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 0.5 点，跌幅 0.01%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 30.25 点，跌幅 0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上午 7:48 ET</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小散户投资者继续买入所谓的 “meme 股票 ”，社交媒体新宠 Clover Health 在周二大涨 85% 创下历史新高后，在盘前交易中大涨 25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站——与今年零售业反弹关系最密切的公司——在盘后公布的季度业绩之前上涨了 1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街股指本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步揭示该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计疲软的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1) 三叶草健康（CLOV）、温迪（WEN）</b>– 这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover 是一家医疗保险销售商，于 10 月份通过 SPAC 交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二涨幅接近 86%。它在盘前交易中飙升了 24.2%，而 Wendy's 在昨天的交易中上涨了近 26%，今天上午又上涨了 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>– 这家食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股 57 美分，比市场预期的每股低 9 美分。由于大流行相关需求的提振，业绩落后于去年同期的数据，收入也低于预期。金宝还下调了全年预测，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售的李子婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝公司股价盘前下跌 5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) 洛兹敦汽车公司（RIDE）</b>– Lordstown Motors 表示，人们对其持续经营的能力存在“重大怀疑”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。消息传出前，Lordstown 昨天暴跌超过 16%，并在盘前交易中再次下跌 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4)目标(TGT)</b>– 该零售商将季度股息从每股 68 美分提高到每股 90 美分，涨幅为 32%。改进后的股息将发放给截至 8 月 18 日登记在册的股东，并于 9 月 10 日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默沙东（MRK）</b>– 该制药商达成协议，向政府提供莫努匹拉韦，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度 Covid-19 病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) 快速（FSLY）</b>- Fastly 就周二的大范围互联网中断事件道歉，这家云计算公司称事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件漏洞引起的。盘前快速上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7) 舍温-威廉姆斯公司（SHW）</b>– 宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为这家涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍将持续。该公司还提高了价格，以应对原材料成本的上涨。宣伟盘前下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8) 凯西百货商店（CASY）</b>- 凯西公布的季度收益为每股 1.12 美元，超过了市场普遍预期的每股 88 美分。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增长，不包括汽油购买在内的同店销售额增长了 12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）福克斯公司（FOXA）</b>- 富国银行证券（Wells Fargo Securities）将福克斯的评级从 “同等权重 ”上调至 “跑赢大盘 ”，该公司认为，尽管面临割线压力，但福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在仍能使该股受益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10) 阿伯克龙比惠誉 (ANF)</b>- 这家服装零售商在杰富瑞（Jefferies）的评级从 “持有 ”上调至 “买入 ”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高将持续受益。Abercrombie 在盘前交易中上涨 2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站（GME）</b>- 这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓的 “meme ”股票再次被买入，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12) 法拉利（比赛）</b>- 法拉利任命 STMicroelectronics（STM）高管贝内代托-维尼亚（Benedetto Vigna）为新任首席执行官，填补了自路易斯-卡米莱里（Louis Camilleri）从汽车制造商首席执行官职位退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚负责芯片制造商意法半导体最大的部门，他将于 9 月 1 日开始在法拉利履新。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-09 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于投资者考虑美国经济复苏的数据更加复杂，周三上午股票期货涨跌互现。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“迷因股票”的复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票三叶草健康将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，各大银行的股票面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国周三股指期货几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者正在等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 7:48，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 54 点，跌幅 0.16%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 0.5 点，跌幅 0.01%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 30.25 点，跌幅 0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上午 7:48 ET</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小散户投资者继续买入所谓的 “meme 股票 ”，社交媒体新宠 Clover Health 在周二大涨 85% 创下历史新高后，在盘前交易中大涨 25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站——与今年零售业反弹关系最密切的公司——在盘后公布的季度业绩之前上涨了 1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街股指本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步揭示该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计疲软的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1) 三叶草健康（CLOV）、温迪（WEN）</b>– 这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover 是一家医疗保险销售商，于 10 月份通过 SPAC 交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二涨幅接近 86%。它在盘前交易中飙升了 24.2%，而 Wendy's 在昨天的交易中上涨了近 26%，今天上午又上涨了 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>– 这家食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股 57 美分，比市场预期的每股低 9 美分。由于大流行相关需求的提振，业绩落后于去年同期的数据，收入也低于预期。金宝还下调了全年预测，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售的李子婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝公司股价盘前下跌 5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) 洛兹敦汽车公司（RIDE）</b>– Lordstown Motors 表示，人们对其持续经营的能力存在“重大怀疑”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。消息传出前，Lordstown 昨天暴跌超过 16%，并在盘前交易中再次下跌 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4)目标(TGT)</b>– 该零售商将季度股息从每股 68 美分提高到每股 90 美分，涨幅为 32%。改进后的股息将发放给截至 8 月 18 日登记在册的股东，并于 9 月 10 日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默沙东（MRK）</b>– 该制药商达成协议，向政府提供莫努匹拉韦，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度 Covid-19 病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) 快速（FSLY）</b>- Fastly 就周二的大范围互联网中断事件道歉，这家云计算公司称事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件漏洞引起的。盘前快速上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7) 舍温-威廉姆斯公司（SHW）</b>– 宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为这家涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍将持续。该公司还提高了价格，以应对原材料成本的上涨。宣伟盘前下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8) 凯西百货商店（CASY）</b>- 凯西公布的季度收益为每股 1.12 美元，超过了市场普遍预期的每股 88 美分。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增长，不包括汽油购买在内的同店销售额增长了 12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）福克斯公司（FOXA）</b>- 富国银行证券（Wells Fargo Securities）将福克斯的评级从 “同等权重 ”上调至 “跑赢大盘 ”，该公司认为，尽管面临割线压力，但福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在仍能使该股受益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10) 阿伯克龙比惠誉 (ANF)</b>- 这家服装零售商在杰富瑞（Jefferies）的评级从 “持有 ”上调至 “买入 ”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高将持续受益。Abercrombie 在盘前交易中上涨 2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站（GME）</b>- 这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓的 “meme ”股票再次被买入，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12) 法拉利（比赛）</b>- 法拉利任命 STMicroelectronics（STM）高管贝内代托-维尼亚（Benedetto Vigna）为新任首席执行官，填补了自路易斯-卡米莱里（Louis Camilleri）从汽车制造商首席执行官职位退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚负责芯片制造商意法半导体最大的部门，他将于 9 月 1 日开始在法拉利履新。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150769391","content_text":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.\nA resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.\nNewest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.\nShares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.\n\n(June 9) U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.\nAt 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.\n7:48 a.m. ET\nBut buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.\n\nGameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.\n\nWall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.\nThe Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n1) Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) – The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.\n2) Campbell Soup(CPB) – The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.\n3) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.\n4) Target(TGT) – The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.\n5) Merck(MRK) – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.\n6) Fastly(FSLY) – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.\n7) Sherwin-Williams(SHW) – Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.\n8) Casey’s General Stores(CASY) – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.\n9) Fox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.\n10) Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.\n11) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.\n12) Ferrari(RACE) – Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178305233,"gmtCreate":1626786957022,"gmtModify":1633771065160,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583032727743539","authorIdStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Honggan","listText":"Honggan","text":"Honggan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178305233","repostId":"1112457513","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112457513","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626785289,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112457513?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112457513","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, an","content":"<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪创11个月新低的情况下，分析师仍预计6月份新屋开工量和许可证量都将上升……他们说对了一半!</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工率环比飙升6.3%（远远超过环比+1.2%的预期），但是……建筑许可，当然是前瞻性的，连续第三个月下降，环比暴跌5.1%（远远低于+0.7%的环比预期）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于起点，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，单户住宅开工量增长6.3%，达到1.160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工量增长6.8%，达到47.4万，为2020年7月以来的最高水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单户许可证下降了6.3%，至1.063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多户家庭许可证下降 1.6%，至 48.3 万萨尔，为 2020 年 12 月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这对未来来说不是一幅美好的画面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加大建设力度的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓将建筑商的信心推至 7 月份的 11 个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后的库存紧缩导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的 71% 消费者表示价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因之一</b>根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月份建筑许可跌至8个月低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 20:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪创11个月新低的情况下，分析师仍预计6月份新屋开工量和许可证量都将上升……他们说对了一半!</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工率环比飙升6.3%（远远超过环比+1.2%的预期），但是……建筑许可，当然是前瞻性的，连续第三个月下降，环比暴跌5.1%（远远低于+0.7%的环比预期）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于起点，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，单户住宅开工量增长6.3%，达到1.160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工量增长6.8%，达到47.4万，为2020年7月以来的最高水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单户许可证下降了6.3%，至1.063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多户家庭许可证下降 1.6%，至 48.3 万萨尔，为 2020 年 12 月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这对未来来说不是一幅美好的画面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加大建设力度的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓将建筑商的信心推至 7 月份的 11 个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后的库存紧缩导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的 71% 消费者表示价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因之一</b>根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112457513","content_text":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!\nAfter a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThis pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...\nSource: Bloomberg\nUnder the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...\n\nBut Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.\nThis is not a pretty picture for the future.\nExorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.\nAn inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.A record 71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured, according to July data from the University of Michigan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}