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2021-05-21

nice

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2021-05-28

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2021-05-30

wow

Credit Suisse Cuts Ties With SoftBank After Greensill Crisis<blockquote>格林希尔危机后瑞士信贷切断与软银的联系</blockquote>

2021-06-17

good

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2021-06-08

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2021-07-24

good

KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote>

2021-12-01

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2021-12-01

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2021-06-23

goof

The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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07:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：超级央行周压力显现！三大股指跌幅接近1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168636209","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①联储会议前美股收跌，道指下跌0.89%；②热门中概股收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%；③加速减码+预告加息，美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变；④英国出现首例奥密克戎死亡病例。\n\n海外市场\n1、联","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：①联储会议前美股收跌，道指下跌0.89%；②热门中概股收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%；③加速减码+预告加息，美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变；④英国出现首例奥密克戎死亡病例。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、联储会议前美股收跌 道指下跌320点</p>\n<p>周一(12月13日)，美股收盘走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL.UK\">嘉年华公司</a>和几家航空公司的股价暴跌，原因是在本周晚些时候美联储召开会议之前投资者对奥密克戎变种忧心忡忡。</p>\n<p>标准普尔500指数收盘下跌0.91%，较盘中高点下跌1.6%左右。受波音公司股价下跌3.7%的拖累，道琼斯指数下跌道指跌320.04点或0.89%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.39%。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股周一收盘大多走低 瑞幸粉单跌近8%</p>\n<p>热门中概股周一收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%，消息面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>召开股东大会，防止前造假管理层获得股权。</p>\n<p>热门中概股大多下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENN\">人人网</a>ADR跌超17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌约15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>有道跌超14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>跌近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>粉单跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>ADR跌近0.8%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜收涨超18%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>涨超4%，图森未来涨超1%。</p>\n<p>3、本周多国央行会议在即 欧股再次下滑</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周一(12月13日)下滑，泛欧斯托克600指数收盘跌幅0.5%，大多数板块都在下跌。投资者对奥密克戎病毒变体的发展做出反应，并等待本周主要央行的货币政策决定。这将是货币政策的重要一周，美国联邦储备委员会、日本央行、英国央行和欧洲央行都将在本周举行会议并作出货币政策决定。</p>\n<p>泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌2.03点，跌幅0.54%，报473.53点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌2.91点，跌幅0.02%，报15620.40点。</p>\n<p>4、Omicron再次引发需求担忧 油价下跌</p>\n<p>交易商权衡Omicron变体的风险，而欧佩克上调了对全球原油需求的预测。周一(12月13日)，油价下跌。</p>\n<p>截至收盘，美国WTI原油期货下跌37美分，跌幅0.52%，报71.30美元/桶；布伦特期货下跌66美分，跌幅0.88%，报74.49美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、年终大考在即黄金顽强走高 金价或很快突破1800美元大关</p>\n<p>周一(12月13日)，金价小幅走高，因投资者在本周关键的央行会议前增持仓位，美联储可能会发出信号，表明其可能会以什么速度退出大流行时期的经济支持措施。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1786.48美元/盎司，上涨3.79美元或0.21%，日内最高触及1790.99美元高点，最低触及1781.37美元。上周，现货黄金收跌0.52美元或0.03%。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、加速减码+预告加息 美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变</p>\n<p>经济学家预计，美联储官员本周将加快收缩购债步伐，并发出2022年加息的信号，在1980年代以来最强通胀面前上演历史性的政策转变。</p>\n<p>超过一半的受访者预计，美联储周三结束两天政策会议后发布的季度预测将显示，18位官员的中值预测是明年加息两次。这与他们9月份的预测相比有变化。当时，决策者在2022年或2023年首次加息的预测上平分秋色。“这将是点阵图历史上最大的鹰派转变，”Macropolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示。美联储自2012年开始发布利率预测的点阵图。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在11月30日对议员们表示，考虑加快减码进程，比原计划(2022年中)提前几个月结束可能是合适的。</p>\n<p>2、纽约联储调查显示：消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高</p>\n<p>纽约联邦储备银行最新消费者调查显示，美国消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高。调查还显示，三年通胀预期自6月以来首次下降，达到4%，主要是受到无大学学历受访者的预期推动。然而，无论是短期还是长期，通胀的不确定性水平都在上升，并且都达到了历史新高。</p>\n<p>3、牛津大学：omicron毒株能削弱两针<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>疫苗的保护力</p>\n<p>研究人员发现，正如人们所担忧的一样，omicron变异株削弱了辉瑞和阿斯利康两剂新冠疫苗所能提供的保护力，增加了接种者感染风险。牛津大学研究人员周一在一份报告中表示，在对接种辉瑞或阿斯利康疫苗的人采集的血液样本中，经检测新毒株omicron令中和抗体大幅减少，尤其是和德尔塔毒株相比，降幅很明显。</p>\n<p>4、约翰逊证实：英国已出现奥密克戎死亡病例 另有10人住院治疗</p>\n<p>英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊周一(12月13日)证实，英国至少有一名感染新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株的患者死亡。</p>\n<p>约翰逊在访问伦敦帕丁顿附近的一家疫苗接种诊所时对记者说：“有几位奥密克戎感染者正在住院治疗。不幸的是，至少有一名患者被证实死于奥密克戎。”</p>\n<p>5、美国累计新冠肺炎确诊病例超5000万例</p>\n<p>当地时间13日，根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至美东时间当天14时22分(北京时间12月14日凌晨3时22分)，美国累计确诊新冠肺炎病例超5000万例，达50009507例；累计死亡病例达797916例。</p>\n<p>6、七国集团财长承诺解决供应链问题并避免未来重演</p>\n<p>七国集团财长承诺加强合作，以解决造成商品短缺和通胀飙升的全球供应链问题。由于运输问题导致供应中断，零部件制成品短缺以及疫情造成能源价格上涨，全球消费者价格都在飙升。美国通胀率已触及1982年以来的最高水平，欧元区通胀率达到了创纪录的4.9%。</p>\n<p>7、欧佩克月报：上调明年一季度全球原油需求预期 奥密克戎影响有限</p>\n<p>欧佩克周一表示，奥密克戎变体对全球原油市场的影响将是有限的，各国政府和企业现在已经适应且能够更好地应对新冠疫情。此外，欧佩克大幅上调了明年第一季度的原油需求预期。在其备受关注的最新月报中，欧佩克将2022年第一季度全球原油需求预期上调111万桶/日，至9913万桶/日； 将2022年全球需求预期上调20万桶/日，至2880万桶/日。</p>\n<p>8、加拿大央行重申2%通胀目标 将把就业最大化纳入使命范围</p>\n<p>加拿大央行将在未来五年维持2%的通胀目标，但允许小幅超过目标以支持可持续的就业最大化。在周一与加拿大政府联合发布的声明中，加拿大央行增加了一项新要求，即必要情况下，官员将使用1%-3%的控制区间来“继续”支持就业水平，但同时强调以通胀目标为首要。</p>\n<p>市场观点</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191735989\" target=\"_blank\">美股瑟瑟发抖：经济学家普遍预期本周美联储将发布“最鹰点阵图”</a></p>\n<p>根据美国当地媒体周一发布的经济学家调查，眼下市场普遍预期美联储官员们本周将明确给出2022年加息的信号，同时加快缩减债券购买规模的速度。</p>\n<p>这项调查在今年12月3日至8日期间进行，值得一提的是，参与调查的49名经济学家中有超过半数认为，18位FOMC委员的中位点阵图预期将达到明年两次加息，这也与九月FOMC经济前瞻形成鲜明反差，当时18名委员中预测2022和2023年开始加息的各占一半。</p>\n<p>2、小摩预计美失业率明年将降至3%左右 奥密克戎是就业市场主要风险</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli认为，2022年美国失业率将下降。“我认为到2022年底可以看到失业率在3%左右，”Feroli称。“过去五个月的失业率下降幅度令人深刻印象。我们预计下降速度会放缓，但很快就会降至4%以下。”在Feroli看来，随着雇主寻找人才以推动企业从疫情中复苏，就业市场可能会以良好的势头进入2022年。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191988721\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克当选时代杂志2021年度风云人物</a></p>\n<p>特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)今日被美国《时代》杂志评为“2021年度风云人物”。</p>\n<p>《时代》杂志称，作为世界上最富有的人，他没有房子，最近一直在抛售财产。他将卫星送入轨道，并利用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>服务千家万户。他驾驶着一辆自己制造的汽车，不需要汽油，也几乎不需要司机。他的手指一挥，股市就会暴涨或暴跌。他的每一句话都被一大群粉丝挂在嘴边。当他把业务推向全球时，还梦想着移民火星。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191828979\" target=\"_blank\">苹果周一收盘跌超2% 创11月26日以来最大单日跌幅</a></p>\n<p>苹果公司股价周一收盘大跌，未能跨越成为全球首家市值达到3万亿美元公司的里程碑。截至周一收盘，苹果公司股价下跌2.07%，报175.74美元，创11月26日以来最大单日跌幅，市值2.88万亿美元。该公司股价周一盘中最高达到182.13美元，市值最高达到2.987万亿美元。苹果公司市值要超越3万亿美元大关，股价需要达到182.86美元。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191881989\" target=\"_blank\">辉瑞溢价100%收购阿里那制药 交易总价值接近67亿美元</a></p>\n<p>当地时间周一，全球医药龙头辉瑞发布公告，将以高额溢价收购创新药开发公司阿里那(Arena)制药，后者在免疫炎症领域拥有多款在研产品。</p>\n<p>根据公告，辉瑞将以每股100美元的价格展开纯现金收购，这一价格较阿里那制药上周五收盘价49.94美元溢价达100%。受此消息影响，截至发稿阿里那股价上涨接近85%至92美元。在新冠疫苗和口服药领域取得科研和商业的双重成功后，财大气粗的辉瑞在公告中表示，这笔交易对阿里那制药的股权估值为67亿美元，公司手头的现金就足以支付。这项交易预期在2022年上半年完成。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191989094\" target=\"_blank\">哈雷电动摩托车部门拟以SPAC上市谋转型 估值17.7亿美元</a></p>\n<p>美东时间时间12月13日周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOG\">哈雷戴维森</a>Harley Davidson公司表示，其电动摩托车部门LiveWire将通以SPAC Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation合并的方式上市，预计合并后的公司估值为17.7亿美元。</p>\n<p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191098483\" target=\"_blank\">英特尔寻求扩大芯片产能 计划投资71亿美元在马来西亚设新厂</a></p>\n<p>据马来西亚政府机构周一(12月13日)称，芯片制造商英特尔公司(Intel)计划在马来西亚投资300亿林吉特(合71亿美元)建立最先进的半导体生产设施，扩大其生产能力。与此同时，美国政府正在积极推动全球各大半导体企业在美设厂，欲将芯片供应链留在美国国内。</p>\n<p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191763986\" target=\"_blank\">瑞银集团协助客户逃税罪名成立 被罚约18亿欧元</a></p>\n<p>法国巴黎一家上诉法院判决瑞银(UBS.N)协助法国客户逃税的罪名成立，但将处罚金额从45亿欧元降至约18亿欧元。该法院表示，瑞银集团在2004年至2012年期间系统地帮助法国客户逃税，引诱他们将钱藏在瑞士。该案最初于2019年宣判，瑞银集团被罚款37亿欧元，外加8亿欧元的损害赔偿及利息。之后，瑞银集团对这一判决提出上诉。</p>\n<p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191917607\" target=\"_blank\">瑞幸咖啡召开股东大会 防止前造假管理层获得股权</a></p>\n<p>12月13日，瑞幸咖啡发布公告称，瑞幸咖啡股东大会已于2021年12月11日召开。会议上通过了提交股东批准的拟议决议，以及公司第五次修订及重述的组织章程大纲及细则。这些拟议措施是为限制前造假管理层获得公司股权的能力，以此限制他们以直接或间接的方式影响公司，从而保护公司的长期生存能力。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：超级央行周压力显现！三大股指跌幅接近1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：超级央行周压力显现！三大股指跌幅接近1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-14 07:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 摘要：①联储会议前美股收跌，道指下跌0.89%；②热门中概股收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%；③加速减码+预告加息，美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变；④英国出现首例奥密克戎死亡病例。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、联储会议前美股收跌 道指下跌320点</p>\n<p>周一(12月13日)，美股收盘走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL.UK\">嘉年华公司</a>和几家航空公司的股价暴跌，原因是在本周晚些时候美联储召开会议之前投资者对奥密克戎变种忧心忡忡。</p>\n<p>标准普尔500指数收盘下跌0.91%，较盘中高点下跌1.6%左右。受波音公司股价下跌3.7%的拖累，道琼斯指数下跌道指跌320.04点或0.89%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.39%。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股周一收盘大多走低 瑞幸粉单跌近8%</p>\n<p>热门中概股周一收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%，消息面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>召开股东大会，防止前造假管理层获得股权。</p>\n<p>热门中概股大多下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENN\">人人网</a>ADR跌超17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌约15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>有道跌超14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>跌近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>粉单跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>ADR跌近0.8%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜收涨超18%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>涨超4%，图森未来涨超1%。</p>\n<p>3、本周多国央行会议在即 欧股再次下滑</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周一(12月13日)下滑，泛欧斯托克600指数收盘跌幅0.5%，大多数板块都在下跌。投资者对奥密克戎病毒变体的发展做出反应，并等待本周主要央行的货币政策决定。这将是货币政策的重要一周，美国联邦储备委员会、日本央行、英国央行和欧洲央行都将在本周举行会议并作出货币政策决定。</p>\n<p>泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌2.03点，跌幅0.54%，报473.53点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌2.91点，跌幅0.02%，报15620.40点。</p>\n<p>4、Omicron再次引发需求担忧 油价下跌</p>\n<p>交易商权衡Omicron变体的风险，而欧佩克上调了对全球原油需求的预测。周一(12月13日)，油价下跌。</p>\n<p>截至收盘，美国WTI原油期货下跌37美分，跌幅0.52%，报71.30美元/桶；布伦特期货下跌66美分，跌幅0.88%，报74.49美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、年终大考在即黄金顽强走高 金价或很快突破1800美元大关</p>\n<p>周一(12月13日)，金价小幅走高，因投资者在本周关键的央行会议前增持仓位，美联储可能会发出信号，表明其可能会以什么速度退出大流行时期的经济支持措施。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1786.48美元/盎司，上涨3.79美元或0.21%，日内最高触及1790.99美元高点，最低触及1781.37美元。上周，现货黄金收跌0.52美元或0.03%。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、加速减码+预告加息 美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变</p>\n<p>经济学家预计，美联储官员本周将加快收缩购债步伐，并发出2022年加息的信号，在1980年代以来最强通胀面前上演历史性的政策转变。</p>\n<p>超过一半的受访者预计，美联储周三结束两天政策会议后发布的季度预测将显示，18位官员的中值预测是明年加息两次。这与他们9月份的预测相比有变化。当时，决策者在2022年或2023年首次加息的预测上平分秋色。“这将是点阵图历史上最大的鹰派转变，”Macropolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示。美联储自2012年开始发布利率预测的点阵图。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在11月30日对议员们表示，考虑加快减码进程，比原计划(2022年中)提前几个月结束可能是合适的。</p>\n<p>2、纽约联储调查显示：消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高</p>\n<p>纽约联邦储备银行最新消费者调查显示，美国消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高。调查还显示，三年通胀预期自6月以来首次下降，达到4%，主要是受到无大学学历受访者的预期推动。然而，无论是短期还是长期，通胀的不确定性水平都在上升，并且都达到了历史新高。</p>\n<p>3、牛津大学：omicron毒株能削弱两针<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>疫苗的保护力</p>\n<p>研究人员发现，正如人们所担忧的一样，omicron变异株削弱了辉瑞和阿斯利康两剂新冠疫苗所能提供的保护力，增加了接种者感染风险。牛津大学研究人员周一在一份报告中表示，在对接种辉瑞或阿斯利康疫苗的人采集的血液样本中，经检测新毒株omicron令中和抗体大幅减少，尤其是和德尔塔毒株相比，降幅很明显。</p>\n<p>4、约翰逊证实：英国已出现奥密克戎死亡病例 另有10人住院治疗</p>\n<p>英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊周一(12月13日)证实，英国至少有一名感染新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株的患者死亡。</p>\n<p>约翰逊在访问伦敦帕丁顿附近的一家疫苗接种诊所时对记者说：“有几位奥密克戎感染者正在住院治疗。不幸的是，至少有一名患者被证实死于奥密克戎。”</p>\n<p>5、美国累计新冠肺炎确诊病例超5000万例</p>\n<p>当地时间13日，根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至美东时间当天14时22分(北京时间12月14日凌晨3时22分)，美国累计确诊新冠肺炎病例超5000万例，达50009507例；累计死亡病例达797916例。</p>\n<p>6、七国集团财长承诺解决供应链问题并避免未来重演</p>\n<p>七国集团财长承诺加强合作，以解决造成商品短缺和通胀飙升的全球供应链问题。由于运输问题导致供应中断，零部件制成品短缺以及疫情造成能源价格上涨，全球消费者价格都在飙升。美国通胀率已触及1982年以来的最高水平，欧元区通胀率达到了创纪录的4.9%。</p>\n<p>7、欧佩克月报：上调明年一季度全球原油需求预期 奥密克戎影响有限</p>\n<p>欧佩克周一表示，奥密克戎变体对全球原油市场的影响将是有限的，各国政府和企业现在已经适应且能够更好地应对新冠疫情。此外，欧佩克大幅上调了明年第一季度的原油需求预期。在其备受关注的最新月报中，欧佩克将2022年第一季度全球原油需求预期上调111万桶/日，至9913万桶/日； 将2022年全球需求预期上调20万桶/日，至2880万桶/日。</p>\n<p>8、加拿大央行重申2%通胀目标 将把就业最大化纳入使命范围</p>\n<p>加拿大央行将在未来五年维持2%的通胀目标，但允许小幅超过目标以支持可持续的就业最大化。在周一与加拿大政府联合发布的声明中，加拿大央行增加了一项新要求，即必要情况下，官员将使用1%-3%的控制区间来“继续”支持就业水平，但同时强调以通胀目标为首要。</p>\n<p>市场观点</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191735989\" target=\"_blank\">美股瑟瑟发抖：经济学家普遍预期本周美联储将发布“最鹰点阵图”</a></p>\n<p>根据美国当地媒体周一发布的经济学家调查，眼下市场普遍预期美联储官员们本周将明确给出2022年加息的信号，同时加快缩减债券购买规模的速度。</p>\n<p>这项调查在今年12月3日至8日期间进行，值得一提的是，参与调查的49名经济学家中有超过半数认为，18位FOMC委员的中位点阵图预期将达到明年两次加息，这也与九月FOMC经济前瞻形成鲜明反差，当时18名委员中预测2022和2023年开始加息的各占一半。</p>\n<p>2、小摩预计美失业率明年将降至3%左右 奥密克戎是就业市场主要风险</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli认为，2022年美国失业率将下降。“我认为到2022年底可以看到失业率在3%左右，”Feroli称。“过去五个月的失业率下降幅度令人深刻印象。我们预计下降速度会放缓，但很快就会降至4%以下。”在Feroli看来，随着雇主寻找人才以推动企业从疫情中复苏，就业市场可能会以良好的势头进入2022年。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191988721\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克当选时代杂志2021年度风云人物</a></p>\n<p>特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)今日被美国《时代》杂志评为“2021年度风云人物”。</p>\n<p>《时代》杂志称，作为世界上最富有的人，他没有房子，最近一直在抛售财产。他将卫星送入轨道，并利用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>服务千家万户。他驾驶着一辆自己制造的汽车，不需要汽油，也几乎不需要司机。他的手指一挥，股市就会暴涨或暴跌。他的每一句话都被一大群粉丝挂在嘴边。当他把业务推向全球时，还梦想着移民火星。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191828979\" target=\"_blank\">苹果周一收盘跌超2% 创11月26日以来最大单日跌幅</a></p>\n<p>苹果公司股价周一收盘大跌，未能跨越成为全球首家市值达到3万亿美元公司的里程碑。截至周一收盘，苹果公司股价下跌2.07%，报175.74美元，创11月26日以来最大单日跌幅，市值2.88万亿美元。该公司股价周一盘中最高达到182.13美元，市值最高达到2.987万亿美元。苹果公司市值要超越3万亿美元大关，股价需要达到182.86美元。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191881989\" target=\"_blank\">辉瑞溢价100%收购阿里那制药 交易总价值接近67亿美元</a></p>\n<p>当地时间周一，全球医药龙头辉瑞发布公告，将以高额溢价收购创新药开发公司阿里那(Arena)制药，后者在免疫炎症领域拥有多款在研产品。</p>\n<p>根据公告，辉瑞将以每股100美元的价格展开纯现金收购，这一价格较阿里那制药上周五收盘价49.94美元溢价达100%。受此消息影响，截至发稿阿里那股价上涨接近85%至92美元。在新冠疫苗和口服药领域取得科研和商业的双重成功后，财大气粗的辉瑞在公告中表示，这笔交易对阿里那制药的股权估值为67亿美元，公司手头的现金就足以支付。这项交易预期在2022年上半年完成。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191989094\" target=\"_blank\">哈雷电动摩托车部门拟以SPAC上市谋转型 估值17.7亿美元</a></p>\n<p>美东时间时间12月13日周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOG\">哈雷戴维森</a>Harley Davidson公司表示，其电动摩托车部门LiveWire将通以SPAC Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation合并的方式上市，预计合并后的公司估值为17.7亿美元。</p>\n<p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191098483\" target=\"_blank\">英特尔寻求扩大芯片产能 计划投资71亿美元在马来西亚设新厂</a></p>\n<p>据马来西亚政府机构周一(12月13日)称，芯片制造商英特尔公司(Intel)计划在马来西亚投资300亿林吉特(合71亿美元)建立最先进的半导体生产设施，扩大其生产能力。与此同时，美国政府正在积极推动全球各大半导体企业在美设厂，欲将芯片供应链留在美国国内。</p>\n<p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191763986\" target=\"_blank\">瑞银集团协助客户逃税罪名成立 被罚约18亿欧元</a></p>\n<p>法国巴黎一家上诉法院判决瑞银(UBS.N)协助法国客户逃税的罪名成立，但将处罚金额从45亿欧元降至约18亿欧元。该法院表示，瑞银集团在2004年至2012年期间系统地帮助法国客户逃税，引诱他们将钱藏在瑞士。该案最初于2019年宣判，瑞银集团被罚款37亿欧元，外加8亿欧元的损害赔偿及利息。之后，瑞银集团对这一判决提出上诉。</p>\n<p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191917607\" target=\"_blank\">瑞幸咖啡召开股东大会 防止前造假管理层获得股权</a></p>\n<p>12月13日，瑞幸咖啡发布公告称，瑞幸咖啡股东大会已于2021年12月11日召开。会议上通过了提交股东批准的拟议决议，以及公司第五次修订及重述的组织章程大纲及细则。这些拟议措施是为限制前造假管理层获得公司股权的能力，以此限制他们以直接或间接的方式影响公司，从而保护公司的长期生存能力。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168636209","content_text":"摘要：①联储会议前美股收跌，道指下跌0.89%；②热门中概股收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%；③加速减码+预告加息，美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变；④英国出现首例奥密克戎死亡病例。\n\n海外市场\n1、联储会议前美股收跌 道指下跌320点\n周一(12月13日)，美股收盘走低，嘉年华公司和几家航空公司的股价暴跌，原因是在本周晚些时候美联储召开会议之前投资者对奥密克戎变种忧心忡忡。\n标准普尔500指数收盘下跌0.91%，较盘中高点下跌1.6%左右。受波音公司股价下跌3.7%的拖累，道琼斯指数下跌道指跌320.04点或0.89%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.39%。\n2、热门中概股周一收盘大多走低 瑞幸粉单跌近8%\n热门中概股周一收盘大多走低，瑞幸粉单跌近8%，消息面，瑞幸咖啡召开股东大会，防止前造假管理层获得股权。\n热门中概股大多下跌。人人网ADR跌超17%，贝壳跌约15%，网易有道跌超14%，瑞幸咖啡跌近8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，腾讯音乐、新东方、斗鱼、爱奇艺跌超4%，拼多多、百度、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、中国恒大粉单跌超3%，阿里巴巴、京东、虎牙跌超2%，蔚来汽车跌超1%，腾讯ADR跌近0.8%，而叮咚买菜收涨超18%，第九城市近10%，掌门教育涨超4%，图森未来涨超1%。\n3、本周多国央行会议在即 欧股再次下滑\n欧洲股市周一(12月13日)下滑，泛欧斯托克600指数收盘跌幅0.5%，大多数板块都在下跌。投资者对奥密克戎病毒变体的发展做出反应，并等待本周主要央行的货币政策决定。这将是货币政策的重要一周，美国联邦储备委员会、日本央行、英国央行和欧洲央行都将在本周举行会议并作出货币政策决定。\n泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌2.03点，跌幅0.54%，报473.53点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌2.91点，跌幅0.02%，报15620.40点。\n4、Omicron再次引发需求担忧 油价下跌\n交易商权衡Omicron变体的风险，而欧佩克上调了对全球原油需求的预测。周一(12月13日)，油价下跌。\n截至收盘，美国WTI原油期货下跌37美分，跌幅0.52%，报71.30美元/桶；布伦特期货下跌66美分，跌幅0.88%，报74.49美元/桶。\n5、年终大考在即黄金顽强走高 金价或很快突破1800美元大关\n周一(12月13日)，金价小幅走高，因投资者在本周关键的央行会议前增持仓位，美联储可能会发出信号，表明其可能会以什么速度退出大流行时期的经济支持措施。\n美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1786.48美元/盎司，上涨3.79美元或0.21%，日内最高触及1790.99美元高点，最低触及1781.37美元。上周，现货黄金收跌0.52美元或0.03%。\n国际宏观\n1、加速减码+预告加息 美联储可能上演历史罕见的鹰派转变\n经济学家预计，美联储官员本周将加快收缩购债步伐，并发出2022年加息的信号，在1980年代以来最强通胀面前上演历史性的政策转变。\n超过一半的受访者预计，美联储周三结束两天政策会议后发布的季度预测将显示，18位官员的中值预测是明年加息两次。这与他们9月份的预测相比有变化。当时，决策者在2022年或2023年首次加息的预测上平分秋色。“这将是点阵图历史上最大的鹰派转变，”Macropolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示。美联储自2012年开始发布利率预测的点阵图。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在11月30日对议员们表示，考虑加快减码进程，比原计划(2022年中)提前几个月结束可能是合适的。\n2、纽约联储调查显示：消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高\n纽约联邦储备银行最新消费者调查显示，美国消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至6%的新高。调查还显示，三年通胀预期自6月以来首次下降，达到4%，主要是受到无大学学历受访者的预期推动。然而，无论是短期还是长期，通胀的不确定性水平都在上升，并且都达到了历史新高。\n3、牛津大学：omicron毒株能削弱两针辉瑞或阿斯利康疫苗的保护力\n研究人员发现，正如人们所担忧的一样，omicron变异株削弱了辉瑞和阿斯利康两剂新冠疫苗所能提供的保护力，增加了接种者感染风险。牛津大学研究人员周一在一份报告中表示，在对接种辉瑞或阿斯利康疫苗的人采集的血液样本中，经检测新毒株omicron令中和抗体大幅减少，尤其是和德尔塔毒株相比，降幅很明显。\n4、约翰逊证实：英国已出现奥密克戎死亡病例 另有10人住院治疗\n英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊周一(12月13日)证实，英国至少有一名感染新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株的患者死亡。\n约翰逊在访问伦敦帕丁顿附近的一家疫苗接种诊所时对记者说：“有几位奥密克戎感染者正在住院治疗。不幸的是，至少有一名患者被证实死于奥密克戎。”\n5、美国累计新冠肺炎确诊病例超5000万例\n当地时间13日，根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至美东时间当天14时22分(北京时间12月14日凌晨3时22分)，美国累计确诊新冠肺炎病例超5000万例，达50009507例；累计死亡病例达797916例。\n6、七国集团财长承诺解决供应链问题并避免未来重演\n七国集团财长承诺加强合作，以解决造成商品短缺和通胀飙升的全球供应链问题。由于运输问题导致供应中断，零部件制成品短缺以及疫情造成能源价格上涨，全球消费者价格都在飙升。美国通胀率已触及1982年以来的最高水平，欧元区通胀率达到了创纪录的4.9%。\n7、欧佩克月报：上调明年一季度全球原油需求预期 奥密克戎影响有限\n欧佩克周一表示，奥密克戎变体对全球原油市场的影响将是有限的，各国政府和企业现在已经适应且能够更好地应对新冠疫情。此外，欧佩克大幅上调了明年第一季度的原油需求预期。在其备受关注的最新月报中，欧佩克将2022年第一季度全球原油需求预期上调111万桶/日，至9913万桶/日； 将2022年全球需求预期上调20万桶/日，至2880万桶/日。\n8、加拿大央行重申2%通胀目标 将把就业最大化纳入使命范围\n加拿大央行将在未来五年维持2%的通胀目标，但允许小幅超过目标以支持可持续的就业最大化。在周一与加拿大政府联合发布的声明中，加拿大央行增加了一项新要求，即必要情况下，官员将使用1%-3%的控制区间来“继续”支持就业水平，但同时强调以通胀目标为首要。\n市场观点\n1、美股瑟瑟发抖：经济学家普遍预期本周美联储将发布“最鹰点阵图”\n根据美国当地媒体周一发布的经济学家调查，眼下市场普遍预期美联储官员们本周将明确给出2022年加息的信号，同时加快缩减债券购买规模的速度。\n这项调查在今年12月3日至8日期间进行，值得一提的是，参与调查的49名经济学家中有超过半数认为，18位FOMC委员的中位点阵图预期将达到明年两次加息，这也与九月FOMC经济前瞻形成鲜明反差，当时18名委员中预测2022和2023年开始加息的各占一半。\n2、小摩预计美失业率明年将降至3%左右 奥密克戎是就业市场主要风险\n摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli认为，2022年美国失业率将下降。“我认为到2022年底可以看到失业率在3%左右，”Feroli称。“过去五个月的失业率下降幅度令人深刻印象。我们预计下降速度会放缓，但很快就会降至4%以下。”在Feroli看来，随着雇主寻找人才以推动企业从疫情中复苏，就业市场可能会以良好的势头进入2022年。\n公司新闻\n1、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克当选时代杂志2021年度风云人物\n特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)今日被美国《时代》杂志评为“2021年度风云人物”。\n《时代》杂志称，作为世界上最富有的人，他没有房子，最近一直在抛售财产。他将卫星送入轨道，并利用太阳能服务千家万户。他驾驶着一辆自己制造的汽车，不需要汽油，也几乎不需要司机。他的手指一挥，股市就会暴涨或暴跌。他的每一句话都被一大群粉丝挂在嘴边。当他把业务推向全球时，还梦想着移民火星。\n2、苹果周一收盘跌超2% 创11月26日以来最大单日跌幅\n苹果公司股价周一收盘大跌，未能跨越成为全球首家市值达到3万亿美元公司的里程碑。截至周一收盘，苹果公司股价下跌2.07%，报175.74美元，创11月26日以来最大单日跌幅，市值2.88万亿美元。该公司股价周一盘中最高达到182.13美元，市值最高达到2.987万亿美元。苹果公司市值要超越3万亿美元大关，股价需要达到182.86美元。\n3、辉瑞溢价100%收购阿里那制药 交易总价值接近67亿美元\n当地时间周一，全球医药龙头辉瑞发布公告，将以高额溢价收购创新药开发公司阿里那(Arena)制药，后者在免疫炎症领域拥有多款在研产品。\n根据公告，辉瑞将以每股100美元的价格展开纯现金收购，这一价格较阿里那制药上周五收盘价49.94美元溢价达100%。受此消息影响，截至发稿阿里那股价上涨接近85%至92美元。在新冠疫苗和口服药领域取得科研和商业的双重成功后，财大气粗的辉瑞在公告中表示，这笔交易对阿里那制药的股权估值为67亿美元，公司手头的现金就足以支付。这项交易预期在2022年上半年完成。\n4、哈雷电动摩托车部门拟以SPAC上市谋转型 估值17.7亿美元\n美东时间时间12月13日周一，哈雷戴维森Harley Davidson公司表示，其电动摩托车部门LiveWire将通以SPAC Special Purpose Acquisition Corporation合并的方式上市，预计合并后的公司估值为17.7亿美元。\n5、英特尔寻求扩大芯片产能 计划投资71亿美元在马来西亚设新厂\n据马来西亚政府机构周一(12月13日)称，芯片制造商英特尔公司(Intel)计划在马来西亚投资300亿林吉特(合71亿美元)建立最先进的半导体生产设施，扩大其生产能力。与此同时，美国政府正在积极推动全球各大半导体企业在美设厂，欲将芯片供应链留在美国国内。\n7、瑞银集团协助客户逃税罪名成立 被罚约18亿欧元\n法国巴黎一家上诉法院判决瑞银(UBS.N)协助法国客户逃税的罪名成立，但将处罚金额从45亿欧元降至约18亿欧元。该法院表示，瑞银集团在2004年至2012年期间系统地帮助法国客户逃税，引诱他们将钱藏在瑞士。该案最初于2019年宣判，瑞银集团被罚款37亿欧元，外加8亿欧元的损害赔偿及利息。之后，瑞银集团对这一判决提出上诉。\n8、瑞幸咖啡召开股东大会 防止前造假管理层获得股权\n12月13日，瑞幸咖啡发布公告称，瑞幸咖啡股东大会已于2021年12月11日召开。会议上通过了提交股东批准的拟议决议，以及公司第五次修订及重述的组织章程大纲及细则。这些拟议措施是为限制前造假管理层获得公司股权的能力，以此限制他们以直接或间接的方式影响公司，从而保护公司的长期生存能力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609434660,"gmtCreate":1638316693078,"gmtModify":1638316693078,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609434660","repostId":"2188534688","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609434889,"gmtCreate":1638316685699,"gmtModify":1638316685699,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609434889","repostId":"2188534688","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877943335,"gmtCreate":1637882893649,"gmtModify":1637882893649,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sloooy","listText":"sloooy","text":"sloooy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877943335","repostId":"2186922113","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2186922113","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637876097,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186922113?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 05:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186922113","media":"市场资讯","summary":"　　周四，欧洲央行公布了10月27日-28日的货币政策会议纪要。纪要显示，虽然通胀压力比之前预期的要更为持久，但货币政策仍必须保持耐心。　　首席经济学家Philip Lane预计中期通胀率低于2%，供应链瓶颈和能源价格被视为上行风险。同时以美元计价的原油价格上涨17%。　　他们表示，美联储随后将在9月和12月加息，并在2023年加息两次。他们先前预计的加息时间为7月和11月。　　根据高盛的新预测情景，美联储将在3月中旬结束资产购买计划。","content":"<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>　　1、欧央行10月会议纪要：通胀压力不减 需为12月会议后保留充足的政策选项</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>　　2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>　　3、英国央行行长：如果通胀导致工资上涨 英国央行将不得不采取行动</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>　　4、美国史上最贵感恩节：不打算接受礼物的人创下历史新高</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>　　5、疫情再反复 欧洲药管局建议批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>　　6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TI\">意大利电信</a>CEO准备辞职 以加快美国私募巨头KKR收购要约的决定</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c037235cf275bbdf94f285e3a2597f1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>欧央行10月会议纪要：通胀压力不减 需为12月会议后保留充足的政策选项</b></p>\n<p>周四（11月25日），欧洲央行公布了10月27日-28日的货币政策会议纪要。纪要显示，虽然通胀压力比之前预期的要更为持久，但货币政策仍必须保持耐心。</p>\n<p>纪要显示，“重要的是，管委会应当为未来的货币政策行动保留充分的选项，包括12月会议以后。”</p>\n<p>首席经济学家Philip Lane预计中期通胀率低于2%，供应链瓶颈和能源价格被视为上行风险。　“一些反映市场对短期货币市场利率未来路径预期的指标很难与欧洲央行的政策利率前瞻指引相协调”。</p>\n<p>欧元区前景因供应链瓶颈和输入价格压力蒙上阴影。自欧洲央行9月货币政策会议以来，欧元名义有效汇率下跌1%，欧元兑美元下跌1.9%。同时以美元计价的原油价格上涨17%。</p>\n<p>欧元区调和消费者物价指数（HICP）从8月的3.0%上升至9月的3.4%，9月能源因素约占整体通胀的一半。服务需求增加和供应摩擦推高了核心调和消费者物价指数（HICPX），该通胀率从8月的1.6%升至9月的1.9%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe5a9166eef231f24c30288debbe4f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次</b></p>\n<p>高盛集团经济学家表示，在通胀压力攀升之际，预计美联储明年将比先前预期更快收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p>Jan Hatzius等高盛经济学家周四在报告中对客户表示，美联储明年1月起将把缩减大规模资产购置计划的幅度扩大一倍至300亿美元/月，并从6月开始将利率从零附近上调。</p>\n<p>他们表示，美联储随后将在9月和12月加息，并在2023年加息两次。他们先前预计的加息时间为7月和11月。</p>\n<p>根据高盛的新预测情景，美联储将在3月中旬结束资产购买计划。他们表示，美联储“有现实的可能性”从5月份开始加息，然后在7月和11月进一步加息。</p>\n<p>美联储副主席Rich Clarida和旧金山联储银行行长Mary Daly最近几天都表示，对加速减码持开放态度。本周公布的数据显示，消费者支出强劲，劳动力市场吃紧，通胀率达到三十年来的最高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e6e6283e93de88739ee7d9e1b350716\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>英国央行行长：如果通胀导致工资上涨 英国央行将不得不采取行动</b></p>\n<p>英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利表示，如果通胀开始促使工人要求涨薪并预计物价将继续上涨，那么决策者将不得不采取行动。</p>\n<p>“我们无法解决我们通常称之为第一轮效应的问题，”贝利周四在Cambridge Union向学生们表示。 “我们面临的风险是，它们变成嵌入式的问题。如果更高的通胀延续更长时间，我们会开始预计它会持续下去，然后进入薪资讨价还价-这个国家的劳动力市场非常紧张，毫无疑问-这时候<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>就不得不介入。”</p>\n<p>上述评论重申了英国央行货币政策委员会在前两次会议上提出的观点，即随着经济复苏和通胀上升，未来几个月利率可能会上升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fd85c9258adcaa94cc3a4a7e4cd0b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>美国史上最贵感恩节：不打算接受礼物的人创下历史新高</b></p>\n<p>进入今年最繁忙的购物季，不少人把今年感恩节称作“史上最贵感恩节”。</p>\n<p>全美零售联合会（National Retail Federation）预计今年假日销售将较上年同期增长8.5%至10.5%。但这一增长在很大程度上是由一小部分富有的消费者推动的。与此同时，一项调查显示，不打算接受任何礼物的人创下了历史新高。</p>\n<p>燃料、杂货和其他商品价格的上涨令许多购物者感到不安。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数，消费者信心在11月跌至10年来的最低点，同时通货膨胀攀升至1990年代初以来的最高水平。消费者正在花钱，但他们对打开钱包越来越紧张。</p>\n<p>根据德勤的一项调查，11.5%的人计划在这个节日期间不花任何钱买礼物、礼品卡或其他娱乐项目。这是这家咨询公司有记录以来旁观的美国人的创纪录数量。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f80bc70c26d1136a176d3b4e248a385e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>疫情再反复 欧洲药管局建议批准辉瑞新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童</b></p>\n<p>欧洲药品管理局25日发表公报，建议欧盟委员会批准美国辉瑞公司和德国生物新技术公司联合开发的新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童。此前，该疫苗已获批用于成人和12岁以上青少年。为这些儿童在欧洲病例激增之际首次接种该疫苗铺平了道路。</p>\n<p>这一批准正值欧洲再次成为疫情的中心，欧洲的病例和死亡人数约占全球的一半。</p>\n<p>尽管最终批准取决于欧盟执委会，但通常会遵循欧洲药品管理局的建议，一位欧盟消息人士对媒体表示，可能会在周五做出决定。</p>\n<p>自11月以来，欧洲再次成为全球疫情的“震中”，多个国家单日新增确诊病例居高不下。各国纷纷重拾或加强防疫举措，但趋严趋紧的防疫措施在荷兰、奥地利、比利时等国引发了不同程度的抗议活动，这进一步增加了病毒传播的风险，使欧洲防疫之路变得更加艰难。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b33a6bf9affdea0cef4601138b361b5d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TI.A\">意大利电信</a>CEO准备辞职 以加快美国私募巨头KKR收购要约的决定</b></p>\n<p>周四，消息人士向媒体透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H6I.UK\">意大利电信</a>（Telecom Italia，TIM）首席执行官Luigi Gubitosi已向董事会表示，如果此举有助于加快美国私募股权集团KKR收购意大利电信的决定，他愿意辞职。</p>\n<p>TIM董事会将于周五决定是否接纳美国私募基金KKR为首财团的收购建议，以及CEO&nbsp;Luigi Gubitosi的去留。TIM的风险管理委员会周四会先行评估集团财政状况。</p>\n<p>11月22日，意大利电信集团宣布，收到美国PE巨头KKR的非约束性收购要约，该要约的目的是将这家意大利最大的电信集团私有化。根据公告，KKR对意大利电信集团100%股权的报价为108亿欧元，加上公司现存净债务，收购要约总额接近330亿欧元。如果收购完成，这将是欧洲迄今为止规模最大的一起要约收购。</p>\n<p>TIM的第一大股东、法国传媒集团——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IIF.UK\">威望迪</a>（Vivendi）一直在推动TIM的掌门人换人。自7月以来，威望迪曾两次发布盈利预警，这些预警增强了Vivendi要求更换掌舵的决心。</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-26 05:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-26/doc-ikyamrmy5121105.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n　　1、欧央行10月会议纪要：通胀压力不减 需为12月会议后保留充足的政策选项\n\n\n　　2、高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次\n\n\n　　3、英国央行行长：如果通胀导致工资上涨 英国央行将不得不采取行动\n\n\n　　4、美国史上最贵感恩节：不打算接受礼物的人创下历史新高\n\n\n　　5、疫情再反复 欧洲药管局建议批准辉瑞新冠疫苗用于5至11岁...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-26/doc-ikyamrmy5121105.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","GS":"高盛","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-11-26/doc-ikyamrmy5121105.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2186922113","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n　　1、欧央行10月会议纪要：通胀压力不减 需为12月会议后保留充足的政策选项\n\n\n　　2、高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次\n\n\n　　3、英国央行行长：如果通胀导致工资上涨 英国央行将不得不采取行动\n\n\n　　4、美国史上最贵感恩节：不打算接受礼物的人创下历史新高\n\n\n　　5、疫情再反复 欧洲药管局建议批准辉瑞新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童\n\n\n　　6、意大利电信CEO准备辞职 以加快美国私募巨头KKR收购要约的决定\n\n\n欧央行10月会议纪要：通胀压力不减 需为12月会议后保留充足的政策选项\n周四（11月25日），欧洲央行公布了10月27日-28日的货币政策会议纪要。纪要显示，虽然通胀压力比之前预期的要更为持久，但货币政策仍必须保持耐心。\n纪要显示，“重要的是，管委会应当为未来的货币政策行动保留充分的选项，包括12月会议以后。”\n首席经济学家Philip Lane预计中期通胀率低于2%，供应链瓶颈和能源价格被视为上行风险。　“一些反映市场对短期货币市场利率未来路径预期的指标很难与欧洲央行的政策利率前瞻指引相协调”。\n欧元区前景因供应链瓶颈和输入价格压力蒙上阴影。自欧洲央行9月货币政策会议以来，欧元名义有效汇率下跌1%，欧元兑美元下跌1.9%。同时以美元计价的原油价格上涨17%。\n欧元区调和消费者物价指数（HICP）从8月的3.0%上升至9月的3.4%，9月能源因素约占整体通胀的一半。服务需求增加和供应摩擦推高了核心调和消费者物价指数（HICPX），该通胀率从8月的1.6%升至9月的1.9%。\n\n高盛预计美联储将迫于通胀压力于2022年加息3次\n高盛集团经济学家表示，在通胀压力攀升之际，预计美联储明年将比先前预期更快收紧货币政策。\nJan Hatzius等高盛经济学家周四在报告中对客户表示，美联储明年1月起将把缩减大规模资产购置计划的幅度扩大一倍至300亿美元/月，并从6月开始将利率从零附近上调。\n他们表示，美联储随后将在9月和12月加息，并在2023年加息两次。他们先前预计的加息时间为7月和11月。\n根据高盛的新预测情景，美联储将在3月中旬结束资产购买计划。他们表示，美联储“有现实的可能性”从5月份开始加息，然后在7月和11月进一步加息。\n美联储副主席Rich Clarida和旧金山联储银行行长Mary Daly最近几天都表示，对加速减码持开放态度。本周公布的数据显示，消费者支出强劲，劳动力市场吃紧，通胀率达到三十年来的最高。\n\n英国央行行长：如果通胀导致工资上涨 英国央行将不得不采取行动\n英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利表示，如果通胀开始促使工人要求涨薪并预计物价将继续上涨，那么决策者将不得不采取行动。\n“我们无法解决我们通常称之为第一轮效应的问题，”贝利周四在Cambridge Union向学生们表示。 “我们面临的风险是，它们变成嵌入式的问题。如果更高的通胀延续更长时间，我们会开始预计它会持续下去，然后进入薪资讨价还价-这个国家的劳动力市场非常紧张，毫无疑问-这时候中央银行就不得不介入。”\n上述评论重申了英国央行货币政策委员会在前两次会议上提出的观点，即随着经济复苏和通胀上升，未来几个月利率可能会上升。\n\n美国史上最贵感恩节：不打算接受礼物的人创下历史新高\n进入今年最繁忙的购物季，不少人把今年感恩节称作“史上最贵感恩节”。\n全美零售联合会（National Retail Federation）预计今年假日销售将较上年同期增长8.5%至10.5%。但这一增长在很大程度上是由一小部分富有的消费者推动的。与此同时，一项调查显示，不打算接受任何礼物的人创下了历史新高。\n燃料、杂货和其他商品价格的上涨令许多购物者感到不安。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数，消费者信心在11月跌至10年来的最低点，同时通货膨胀攀升至1990年代初以来的最高水平。消费者正在花钱，但他们对打开钱包越来越紧张。\n根据德勤的一项调查，11.5%的人计划在这个节日期间不花任何钱买礼物、礼品卡或其他娱乐项目。这是这家咨询公司有记录以来旁观的美国人的创纪录数量。\n\n疫情再反复 欧洲药管局建议批准辉瑞新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童\n欧洲药品管理局25日发表公报，建议欧盟委员会批准美国辉瑞公司和德国生物新技术公司联合开发的新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童。此前，该疫苗已获批用于成人和12岁以上青少年。为这些儿童在欧洲病例激增之际首次接种该疫苗铺平了道路。\n这一批准正值欧洲再次成为疫情的中心，欧洲的病例和死亡人数约占全球的一半。\n尽管最终批准取决于欧盟执委会，但通常会遵循欧洲药品管理局的建议，一位欧盟消息人士对媒体表示，可能会在周五做出决定。\n自11月以来，欧洲再次成为全球疫情的“震中”，多个国家单日新增确诊病例居高不下。各国纷纷重拾或加强防疫举措，但趋严趋紧的防疫措施在荷兰、奥地利、比利时等国引发了不同程度的抗议活动，这进一步增加了病毒传播的风险，使欧洲防疫之路变得更加艰难。\n意大利电信CEO准备辞职 以加快美国私募巨头KKR收购要约的决定\n周四，消息人士向媒体透露，意大利电信（Telecom Italia，TIM）首席执行官Luigi Gubitosi已向董事会表示，如果此举有助于加快美国私募股权集团KKR收购意大利电信的决定，他愿意辞职。\nTIM董事会将于周五决定是否接纳美国私募基金KKR为首财团的收购建议，以及CEO Luigi Gubitosi的去留。TIM的风险管理委员会周四会先行评估集团财政状况。\n11月22日，意大利电信集团宣布，收到美国PE巨头KKR的非约束性收购要约，该要约的目的是将这家意大利最大的电信集团私有化。根据公告，KKR对意大利电信集团100%股权的报价为108亿欧元，加上公司现存净债务，收购要约总额接近330亿欧元。如果收购完成，这将是欧洲迄今为止规模最大的一起要约收购。\nTIM的第一大股东、法国传媒集团——威望迪（Vivendi）一直在推动TIM的掌门人换人。自7月以来，威望迪曾两次发布盈利预警，这些预警增强了Vivendi要求更换掌舵的决心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"GS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174195293,"gmtCreate":1627084510412,"gmtModify":1633768215008,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174195293","repostId":"1138940169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138940169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627049470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138940169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 22:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138940169","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 23) KE Holdings Inc. tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading. KE Holdings operates an online pla","content":"<p>(July 23)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE Holdings Inc.</a></b> tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading.&nbsp;KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.</p><p><blockquote>（7月23日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE控股公司。</a></b>早盘暴跌近25%贝壳找房运营中国住房交易和服务在线平台。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70e9ab1966db1941d729576154c7970\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-23 22:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE Holdings Inc.</a></b> tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading.&nbsp;KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.</p><p><blockquote>（7月23日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE控股公司。</a></b>早盘暴跌近25%贝壳找房运营中国住房交易和服务在线平台。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70e9ab1966db1941d729576154c7970\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138940169","content_text":"(July 23) KE Holdings Inc. tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading. KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159673320,"gmtCreate":1624966842460,"gmtModify":1633946452276,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159673320","repostId":"1134873254","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124843466,"gmtCreate":1624759861755,"gmtModify":1633949002764,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124843466","repostId":"2146107083","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122497742,"gmtCreate":1624629538286,"gmtModify":1633950322470,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122497742","repostId":"2146023165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121808121,"gmtCreate":1624457785463,"gmtModify":1634005845989,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"goof","listText":"goof","text":"goof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121808121","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有提到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有提到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165235881,"gmtCreate":1624145786943,"gmtModify":1634010397623,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165235881","repostId":"2144745297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168215630,"gmtCreate":1623976106520,"gmtModify":1634024982987,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168215630","repostId":"2144474967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163878794,"gmtCreate":1623879190118,"gmtModify":1634026682248,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163878794","repostId":"1137784542","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169236424,"gmtCreate":1623837013768,"gmtModify":1634027342796,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169236424","repostId":"1150256789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150256789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623833619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150256789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orphazyme Major Investor Sunstone Cut Stake After Retail Investor-Driven Rally<blockquote>Orphazyme主要投资者Sunstone在散户投资者推动的反弹后减持股份</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150256789","media":"benzinga","summary":"Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the","content":"<p><div> Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the retail investor-driven rally in the Denmark-based biopharmaceutical company’s shares. What Happened...</p><p><blockquote><div>Orphazyme A/S的主要股东Sunstone Life Science Ventures在散户投资者推动的丹麦生物制药公司股价上涨后减持了其股份。发生了什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orphazyme Major Investor Sunstone Cut Stake After Retail Investor-Driven Rally<blockquote>Orphazyme主要投资者Sunstone在散户投资者推动的反弹后减持股份</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrphazyme Major Investor Sunstone Cut Stake After Retail Investor-Driven Rally<blockquote>Orphazyme主要投资者Sunstone在散户投资者推动的反弹后减持股份</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 16:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the retail investor-driven rally in the Denmark-based biopharmaceutical company’s shares. What Happened...</p><p><blockquote><div>Orphazyme A/S的主要股东Sunstone Life Science Ventures在散户投资者推动的丹麦生物制药公司股价上涨后减持了其股份。发生了什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150256789","content_text":"Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the retail investor-driven rally in the Denmark-based biopharmaceutical company’s shares.\nWhat Happened: Orphazyme said on Tuesday it received a notice from Copenhagen-based Sunstone Life Science Ventures that as of June 11, funds held by Sunstone hold less than 5% of the company’s share capital.\nIn March, Orphazyme had disclosed in its annual report that Sunstone owned 5.2% of the company’s shares, according to areportby Bloomberg.\nOnly two investors — LSP V Coöperatieve U.A. with a 7.81% stake and Coöperative Aescap Venture I U.A. with a 5.1% stake — now own more than 5% of Orphazyme’s shares, the report added.\nWhy It Matters: Last week, Orphazyme emergedas one of the so-called stonks, or stocks popular with retail investors. The company’s sharesskyrocketedalmost 1,400% at one point on Thursday.\nIn a regulatory filing, Orphazyme said it isn't aware of any material change in its clinical development programs, financial condition or results of operations that would explain the price volatility in its shares that occurred since last Thursday.\nHowever, the FDA is scheduled to rule on Orphazyme's NDA for Arimocolmol for the treatment of Niemann-Pick Disease Type C, on Thursday, June 17.\nPrice Action: Orphazyme shares closed 9.5% lower in Tuesday’s trading at $10.05.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169236914,"gmtCreate":1623836990438,"gmtModify":1634027343490,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169236914","repostId":"1150256789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150256789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623833619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150256789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orphazyme Major Investor Sunstone Cut Stake After Retail Investor-Driven Rally<blockquote>Orphazyme主要投资者Sunstone在散户投资者推动的反弹后减持股份</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150256789","media":"benzinga","summary":"Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the","content":"<p><div> Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the retail investor-driven rally in the Denmark-based biopharmaceutical company’s shares. What Happened...</p><p><blockquote><div>Orphazyme A/S的主要股东Sunstone Life Science Ventures在散户投资者推动的丹麦生物制药公司股价上涨后减持了其股份。发生了什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orphazyme Major Investor Sunstone Cut Stake After Retail Investor-Driven Rally<blockquote>Orphazyme主要投资者Sunstone在散户投资者推动的反弹后减持股份</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrphazyme Major Investor Sunstone Cut Stake After Retail Investor-Driven Rally<blockquote>Orphazyme主要投资者Sunstone在散户投资者推动的反弹后减持股份</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 16:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the retail investor-driven rally in the Denmark-based biopharmaceutical company’s shares. What Happened...</p><p><blockquote><div>Orphazyme A/S的主要股东Sunstone Life Science Ventures在散户投资者推动的丹麦生物制药公司股价上涨后减持了其股份。发生了什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21582310/orphazyme-major-investor-sunstone-cut-stake-after-retail-investor-driven-rally","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150256789","content_text":"Orphazyme A/S’s major shareholder Sunstone Life Science Ventures has reduced its stake following the retail investor-driven rally in the Denmark-based biopharmaceutical company’s shares.\nWhat Happened: Orphazyme said on Tuesday it received a notice from Copenhagen-based Sunstone Life Science Ventures that as of June 11, funds held by Sunstone hold less than 5% of the company’s share capital.\nIn March, Orphazyme had disclosed in its annual report that Sunstone owned 5.2% of the company’s shares, according to areportby Bloomberg.\nOnly two investors — LSP V Coöperatieve U.A. with a 7.81% stake and Coöperative Aescap Venture I U.A. with a 5.1% stake — now own more than 5% of Orphazyme’s shares, the report added.\nWhy It Matters: Last week, Orphazyme emergedas one of the so-called stonks, or stocks popular with retail investors. The company’s sharesskyrocketedalmost 1,400% at one point on Thursday.\nIn a regulatory filing, Orphazyme said it isn't aware of any material change in its clinical development programs, financial condition or results of operations that would explain the price volatility in its shares that occurred since last Thursday.\nHowever, the FDA is scheduled to rule on Orphazyme's NDA for Arimocolmol for the treatment of Niemann-Pick Disease Type C, on Thursday, June 17.\nPrice Action: Orphazyme shares closed 9.5% lower in Tuesday’s trading at $10.05.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169233611,"gmtCreate":1623836917333,"gmtModify":1634027344922,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"goood","listText":"goood","text":"goood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169233611","repostId":"2143765982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186701272,"gmtCreate":1623539639396,"gmtModify":1634032113946,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hood","listText":"hood","text":"hood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186701272","repostId":"1191179846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183624089,"gmtCreate":1623329813741,"gmtModify":1634034532241,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"noxe","listText":"noxe","text":"noxe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183624089","repostId":"1141800952","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117798231,"gmtCreate":1623160010923,"gmtModify":1634036321775,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117798231","repostId":"1154765176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114874664,"gmtCreate":1623069946458,"gmtModify":1634037317656,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583228238671976","idStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114874664","repostId":"1122556332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":139192244,"gmtCreate":1621598589688,"gmtModify":1634187774025,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139192244","repostId":"2137290933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134319795,"gmtCreate":1622207381017,"gmtModify":1634182861427,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134319795","repostId":"1196301428","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137148295,"gmtCreate":1622332944217,"gmtModify":1634102329196,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137148295","repostId":"1159760711","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159760711","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622210255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159760711?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Credit Suisse Cuts Ties With SoftBank After Greensill Crisis<blockquote>格林希尔危机后瑞士信贷切断与软银的联系</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159760711","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is cutting ties with SoftBank Group Corp., distancing itself f","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is cutting ties with SoftBank Group Corp., distancing itself from a key backer to Lex Greensill’s collapsed supply-chain finance empire after conflict of interest allegations.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-瑞士信贷集团正在切断与软银集团的联系，与莱克斯·格林希尔(Lex Greensill)因利益冲突指控而崩溃的供应链金融帝国的主要支持者保持距离。</blockquote></p><p>The Swiss lender will no longer do any new business with the Japanese firm, people with knowledge of situation said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The decision may ripple across Credit Suisse’s investment bank: SoftBank has been a prolific deal-maker and last year Credit Suisse and other banks held about $8 billion of SoftBank shares in collateral, pledged by founder Masayoshi Son.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，这家瑞士银行将不再与这家日本公司开展任何新业务。由于此事属于私人性质，因此要求匿名。这一决定可能会波及瑞士信贷的投资银行：软银一直是一个多产的交易撮合者，去年瑞士信贷和其他银行持有约80亿美元的软银股票作为抵押品，由创始人孙正义质押。</blockquote></p><p>It is unclear how long the ban lasts for, or whether it impacts any ongoing deals.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚该禁令将持续多久，也不清楚它是否会影响任何正在进行的交易。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse is reviewing its risk and client relationships after being hit by the twin collapses of Greensill and Archegos Capital Management. New Chairman Antonio-Horta Osorio has pledged a wide-ranging review after the bank was forced to suspend billions of dollars of funds it managed with Greensill and took a $5.5 billion hit on Archegos, raising questions about the oversight of key clients.</p><p><blockquote>在遭受Greensill和Archegos Capital Management双重倒闭的打击后，瑞士信贷正在审查其风险和客户关系。新任董事长安东尼奥-奥尔塔·奥索里奥(Antonio-Horta Osorio)承诺进行广泛审查，此前该银行被迫暂停与Greensill管理的数十亿美元资金，并对Archegos遭受了55亿美元的打击，引发了人们对关键客户监管的质疑。</blockquote></p><p>A Tokyo-based spokesperson at SoftBank Group wasn’t immediately available to comment, while Credit Suisse declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>软银集团驻东京发言人未能立即置评，而瑞士信贷则拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse conducted an internal review into the Greensill funds after allegations of possible conflicts of interest involving SoftBank last year. A number of SoftBank portfolio companies received loans via supply-chain funds at Credit Suisse, while SoftBank was also an investor in the Credit Suisse funds. In the aftermath, SoftBank pulled $700 million out of the funds and the bank also changed its investment guidelines for Credit Suisse’s funds to reduce the maximum exposure to a single borrower.</p><p><blockquote>去年，在软银被指控可能存在利益冲突后，瑞士信贷对Greensill基金进行了内部审查。软银的许多投资组合公司通过瑞士信贷的供应链基金获得贷款，而软银也是瑞士信贷基金的投资者。随后，软银从这些基金中撤出了7亿美元，该银行还改变了对瑞士信贷基金的投资准则，以减少对单一借款人的最大敞口。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse Overhauls Rules for Funds Accused of Conflicts</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷彻底改革被指控存在冲突的基金规则</blockquote></p><p>The overlapping financial relationships had raised questions whether SoftBank was using the Credit Suisse funds to prop up investments in the Vision Fund, including Greensill Capital, in which it had a substantial stake.</p><p><blockquote>重叠的财务关系引发了人们的疑问，即软银是否在利用瑞士信贷的资金来支持对愿景基金的投资，包括其持有大量股份的Greensill Capital。</blockquote></p><p>SoftBank wrote down its $1.5 billion holding of Greensill to close to zero after Credit Suisse was forced to wind down its four Greensill-linked funds in March, people familiar with the matter earlier said. SoftBank is now seeking $1.15 billion in claims as part of Greensill’s insolvency proceedings.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士早些时候表示，在瑞士信贷3月份被迫清盘其四只与Greensill相关的基金后，软银将其持有的15亿美元Greensill减记至接近于零。作为Greensill破产程序的一部分，软银目前正在寻求11.5亿美元的索赔。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse marketed its popular supply-chain finance funds as among the safest investments it offered, because the loans they held were backed by invoices usually paid in weeks and the funds were insured. But as the funds grew into a $10 billion strategy, they strayed from that pitch and much of the money was lent through Greensill against expected future invoices, for sales that were merely predicted. The firm’s collapse forced Credit Suisse to liquidate the funds, and investors finally payment is still uncertain.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将其广受欢迎的供应链金融基金宣传为其提供的最安全的投资之一，因为它们持有的贷款有发票支持，通常在几周内支付，而且资金也有保险。但随着这些基金发展成为100亿美元的战略，他们偏离了这一目标，大部分资金是通过Greensill根据预期的未来发票借出的，用于仅仅是预测的销售。该公司的倒闭迫使瑞士信贷清算资金，投资者最终的付款仍不确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse Cuts Ties With SoftBank After Greensill Crisis<blockquote>格林希尔危机后瑞士信贷切断与软银的联系</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse Cuts Ties With SoftBank After Greensill Crisis<blockquote>格林希尔危机后瑞士信贷切断与软银的联系</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-28 21:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is cutting ties with SoftBank Group Corp., distancing itself from a key backer to Lex Greensill’s collapsed supply-chain finance empire after conflict of interest allegations.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-瑞士信贷集团正在切断与软银集团的联系，与莱克斯·格林希尔(Lex Greensill)因利益冲突指控而崩溃的供应链金融帝国的主要支持者保持距离。</blockquote></p><p>The Swiss lender will no longer do any new business with the Japanese firm, people with knowledge of situation said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The decision may ripple across Credit Suisse’s investment bank: SoftBank has been a prolific deal-maker and last year Credit Suisse and other banks held about $8 billion of SoftBank shares in collateral, pledged by founder Masayoshi Son.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，这家瑞士银行将不再与这家日本公司开展任何新业务。由于此事属于私人性质，因此要求匿名。这一决定可能会波及瑞士信贷的投资银行：软银一直是一个多产的交易撮合者，去年瑞士信贷和其他银行持有约80亿美元的软银股票作为抵押品，由创始人孙正义质押。</blockquote></p><p>It is unclear how long the ban lasts for, or whether it impacts any ongoing deals.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚该禁令将持续多久，也不清楚它是否会影响任何正在进行的交易。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse is reviewing its risk and client relationships after being hit by the twin collapses of Greensill and Archegos Capital Management. New Chairman Antonio-Horta Osorio has pledged a wide-ranging review after the bank was forced to suspend billions of dollars of funds it managed with Greensill and took a $5.5 billion hit on Archegos, raising questions about the oversight of key clients.</p><p><blockquote>在遭受Greensill和Archegos Capital Management双重倒闭的打击后，瑞士信贷正在审查其风险和客户关系。新任董事长安东尼奥-奥尔塔·奥索里奥(Antonio-Horta Osorio)承诺进行广泛审查，此前该银行被迫暂停与Greensill管理的数十亿美元资金，并对Archegos遭受了55亿美元的打击，引发了人们对关键客户监管的质疑。</blockquote></p><p>A Tokyo-based spokesperson at SoftBank Group wasn’t immediately available to comment, while Credit Suisse declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>软银集团驻东京发言人未能立即置评，而瑞士信贷则拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse conducted an internal review into the Greensill funds after allegations of possible conflicts of interest involving SoftBank last year. A number of SoftBank portfolio companies received loans via supply-chain funds at Credit Suisse, while SoftBank was also an investor in the Credit Suisse funds. In the aftermath, SoftBank pulled $700 million out of the funds and the bank also changed its investment guidelines for Credit Suisse’s funds to reduce the maximum exposure to a single borrower.</p><p><blockquote>去年，在软银被指控可能存在利益冲突后，瑞士信贷对Greensill基金进行了内部审查。软银的许多投资组合公司通过瑞士信贷的供应链基金获得贷款，而软银也是瑞士信贷基金的投资者。随后，软银从这些基金中撤出了7亿美元，该银行还改变了对瑞士信贷基金的投资准则，以减少对单一借款人的最大敞口。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse Overhauls Rules for Funds Accused of Conflicts</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷彻底改革被指控存在冲突的基金规则</blockquote></p><p>The overlapping financial relationships had raised questions whether SoftBank was using the Credit Suisse funds to prop up investments in the Vision Fund, including Greensill Capital, in which it had a substantial stake.</p><p><blockquote>重叠的财务关系引发了人们的疑问，即软银是否在利用瑞士信贷的资金来支持对愿景基金的投资，包括其持有大量股份的Greensill Capital。</blockquote></p><p>SoftBank wrote down its $1.5 billion holding of Greensill to close to zero after Credit Suisse was forced to wind down its four Greensill-linked funds in March, people familiar with the matter earlier said. SoftBank is now seeking $1.15 billion in claims as part of Greensill’s insolvency proceedings.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士早些时候表示，在瑞士信贷3月份被迫清盘其四只与Greensill相关的基金后，软银将其持有的15亿美元Greensill减记至接近于零。作为Greensill破产程序的一部分，软银目前正在寻求11.5亿美元的索赔。</blockquote></p><p>Credit Suisse marketed its popular supply-chain finance funds as among the safest investments it offered, because the loans they held were backed by invoices usually paid in weeks and the funds were insured. But as the funds grew into a $10 billion strategy, they strayed from that pitch and much of the money was lent through Greensill against expected future invoices, for sales that were merely predicted. The firm’s collapse forced Credit Suisse to liquidate the funds, and investors finally payment is still uncertain.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将其广受欢迎的供应链金融基金宣传为其提供的最安全的投资之一，因为它们持有的贷款有发票支持，通常在几周内支付，而且资金也有保险。但随着这些基金发展成为100亿美元的战略，他们偏离了这一目标，大部分资金是通过Greensill根据预期的未来发票借出的，用于仅仅是预测的销售。该公司的倒闭迫使瑞士信贷清算资金，投资者最终的付款仍不确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-cuts-ties-softbank-132036883.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-cuts-ties-softbank-132036883.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159760711","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is cutting ties with SoftBank Group Corp., distancing itself from a key backer to Lex Greensill’s collapsed supply-chain finance empire after conflict of interest allegations.The Swiss lender will no longer do any new business with the Japanese firm, people with knowledge of situation said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The decision may ripple across Credit Suisse’s investment bank: SoftBank has been a prolific deal-maker and last year Credit Suisse and other banks held about $8 billion of SoftBank shares in collateral, pledged by founder Masayoshi Son.It is unclear how long the ban lasts for, or whether it impacts any ongoing deals.Credit Suisse is reviewing its risk and client relationships after being hit by the twin collapses of Greensill and Archegos Capital Management. New Chairman Antonio-Horta Osorio has pledged a wide-ranging review after the bank was forced to suspend billions of dollars of funds it managed with Greensill and took a $5.5 billion hit on Archegos, raising questions about the oversight of key clients.A Tokyo-based spokesperson at SoftBank Group wasn’t immediately available to comment, while Credit Suisse declined to comment.Credit Suisse conducted an internal review into the Greensill funds after allegations of possible conflicts of interest involving SoftBank last year. A number of SoftBank portfolio companies received loans via supply-chain funds at Credit Suisse, while SoftBank was also an investor in the Credit Suisse funds. In the aftermath, SoftBank pulled $700 million out of the funds and the bank also changed its investment guidelines for Credit Suisse’s funds to reduce the maximum exposure to a single borrower.Credit Suisse Overhauls Rules for Funds Accused of ConflictsThe overlapping financial relationships had raised questions whether SoftBank was using the Credit Suisse funds to prop up investments in the Vision Fund, including Greensill Capital, in which it had a substantial stake.SoftBank wrote down its $1.5 billion holding of Greensill to close to zero after Credit Suisse was forced to wind down its four Greensill-linked funds in March, people familiar with the matter earlier said. SoftBank is now seeking $1.15 billion in claims as part of Greensill’s insolvency proceedings.Credit Suisse marketed its popular supply-chain finance funds as among the safest investments it offered, because the loans they held were backed by invoices usually paid in weeks and the funds were insured. But as the funds grew into a $10 billion strategy, they strayed from that pitch and much of the money was lent through Greensill against expected future invoices, for sales that were merely predicted. The firm’s collapse forced Credit Suisse to liquidate the funds, and investors finally payment is still uncertain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163878794,"gmtCreate":1623879190118,"gmtModify":1634026682248,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163878794","repostId":"1137784542","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117798231,"gmtCreate":1623160010923,"gmtModify":1634036321775,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117798231","repostId":"1154765176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174195293,"gmtCreate":1627084510412,"gmtModify":1633768215008,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174195293","repostId":"1138940169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138940169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627049470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138940169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 22:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138940169","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 23) KE Holdings Inc. tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading. KE Holdings operates an online pla","content":"<p>(July 23)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE Holdings Inc.</a></b> tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading.&nbsp;KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.</p><p><blockquote>（7月23日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE控股公司。</a></b>早盘暴跌近25%贝壳找房运营中国住房交易和服务在线平台。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70e9ab1966db1941d729576154c7970\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading<blockquote>KE早盘暴跌近25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-23 22:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE Holdings Inc.</a></b> tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading.&nbsp;KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.</p><p><blockquote>（7月23日）<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE控股公司。</a></b>早盘暴跌近25%贝壳找房运营中国住房交易和服务在线平台。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70e9ab1966db1941d729576154c7970\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138940169","content_text":"(July 23) KE Holdings Inc. tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading. KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":609434889,"gmtCreate":1638316685699,"gmtModify":1638316685699,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609434889","repostId":"2188534688","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609434660,"gmtCreate":1638316693078,"gmtModify":1638316693078,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609434660","repostId":"2188534688","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121808121,"gmtCreate":1624457785463,"gmtModify":1634005845989,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"goof","listText":"goof","text":"goof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121808121","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有提到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第一部分：他们不能加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3个要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>  <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>  <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>美国政府债务超过28万亿美元</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，这使得它对利率上升格外敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p><p><blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在新冠肺炎之前，这个问题就变得棘手了。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了4T多美元的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期的喘息机会，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote></p><p> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p><p><blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为不断膨胀的未偿短期债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的90%以上的长期债务，情况更加缓解。这使得私人市场有更多的空间来购买新发行的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为0%，这实际上给了财政部一个<b>$4.5 T 0%利息贷款</b>15个月后！</blockquote></p><p> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这听起来是一笔很大的交易，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经将美联储置于一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第1部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第2部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减，甚至可能需要增加国债购买，以维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28万亿美元且不断增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p><p><blockquote>过度支出必须用债务来支付。这种大规模的过度支出导致联邦政府借贷激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28T美元。见下图2。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p><p><blockquote>对于任何努力理解1T美元规模的人来说，请看看这个伟大的视觉效果。现在，把它乘以28！</blockquote></p><p> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了降低支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这对美元的需求远远超过其他情况。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，所以在这个分析中将跳过。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷继续有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于11T美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图3所示，自2010年1月以来，私人市场“只”吸收了14.5吨发行的9T美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></blockquote></p><p> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p><p><blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加严峻。财政部已发行4.5 T美元，其中美联储已发行2.6 T美元（<i>注：美联储资产负债表已扩大超过4T美元，但并非全部都是国债</i>).深入研究这些数字就会发现，美联储对长期债券的兴趣更大。由于短期利率为0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，但仍有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持低利息支付至关重要！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p><p><blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么过去一年的演习如此重要。再看看美国的债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。不可销售的是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年期限，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从占未偿总额的25%增加到42%。非市场则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，从45%萎缩至25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是上述国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为更高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在2015年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占1.4 T美元，但现在占4.3 T美元。这意味着每加息0.25%几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一个加息周期的影响。粉红线显示了美联储加息周期后票据如何达到接近2.25%的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即在联邦支出中增加1000亿美元，仅用于国库券的到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1T美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高至4%的情况下，财政部将额外承担160B美元的国库券利率和高达290B美元的国库券利率！这不会考虑在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的0.5 T美元！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>下图更清楚地显示了近20年来利率下降如何使债务支付保持相对稳定的影响。图表显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（平均加权利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了高利率增加债务负担的速度（$150B）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（$320B），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>最后一张要考虑的图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收收入相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响有多大就变得非常清楚了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源-Treasurydirect.gov</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p><p><blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务状况或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并把硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有提到更高的利率会对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场造成多大的破坏性。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）掌管。</blockquote></p><p> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>这些数学计算都不太复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是否意识到利率不能上升，或者他们只是看着后视镜，假设加息至2.25%将类似于2015年，而2015年“只是”被新冠肺炎脱轨？重申一下，利率的下降给了财政部<i>宽慰</i>来自较高的利息支付。下一次，由于债务负担的增加，他们可能连2%的一半都达不到。<b>不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。</b>如果美联储现在还没想明白，<b>即使在加息失败之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩表了，而不会产生严重后果。</b>这些数据将在第2部分中进行回顾。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165235881,"gmtCreate":1624145786943,"gmtModify":1634010397623,"author":{"id":"3583228238671976","authorId":"3583228238671976","name":"9199ni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8890ad4144b00eff4f6d77481bf1f859","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583228238671976","authorIdStr":"3583228238671976"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165235881","repostId":"2144745297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}