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JacAng

JacAng

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2021-12-31

Get both!

Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>

2021-12-01

Good move

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2021-07-19

New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-02

This is good!

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2021-07-01

Great!

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2021-06-30

Great

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2021-06-24

Time in mkt!

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2021-06-16

Good advice

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2021-06-01

Good news for the fight against the pandemic!

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2021-06-01

Good advice

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2021-05-31

Buy?

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2021-05-30

What is new?

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2021-05-30

Do something constructive!

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2021-05-30

Need to work for it

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2021-05-28

Be inclusive!

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2021-05-28

Never stops reinventing!

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2021-05-28

Good to generate competition!

Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>

2021-05-28

Not everyone is as 'lucky'!

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2021-05-26

Green

Why Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在大流行之后销量会大幅增长</blockquote>

2021-05-26

Good infor

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both!","listText":"Get both!","text":"Get both!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692804576","repostId":"1139674064","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139674064","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640878484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139674064?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139674064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and gre","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场的竞争越来越激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使得它们能够要求很高的平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从产量增长的角度来看，它走得更远，我相信它是当今更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉（TSLA）之外，也有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将对Lucid Group，Inc.(LCID)和蔚来（蔚来）进行对比，这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并探讨两家公司的个别风险。总体而言，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两个选择中更具吸引力的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的Lucid和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于600万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，全球销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY），具体取决于插电式混合动力车的计算方式。蔚来和Lucid Group，Inc.目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约11,000辆汽车，相当于年销量约130,000辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能会超过13万辆，因为交付量应该会继续连续攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid目前的规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已售出数百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group的目标是交付约20,000辆汽车，比2021年增长很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID与蔚来过去的季度表现</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来过去三个月的销售业绩远强于Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为LCID刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，从股价来看，Lucid的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID上涨了近50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近20%。就蔚来而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而LCID则从Rivian(RIVN)IPO的巨大成功引发的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者购买Lucid的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来今天的价值要高得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>该股的交易价格不到共识价格目标的一半，这意味着明年有100%以上的上涨空间，而LCID的交易价格几乎完全符合当前的共识价格目标，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来上个季度的表现不佳似乎使该公司在当前水平上表现强劲，而Lucid则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解这两家公司的技术、品牌及其具体的主要风险。蔚来和Lucid都活跃在电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉的平均水平。蔚来的平均售价约为7万美元，Lucid的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司销售的是最昂贵的Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。特斯拉是目前电动汽车的领导者，其平均售价约为50,000美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司怎么能要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价呢？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来的电池交换技术允许其客户在几分钟内充满“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的900V技术既可以实现巨大的续航里程，又可以实现快速充电速度——Lucid的架构允许客户在短短20分钟内充电长达300英里的电量。作为参考，特斯拉S采用约400V架构，允许客户在15分钟内充电200英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和Lucid的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也很有竞争力。Lucid Air Dream的EPA续航里程为520英里，对于几乎所有用例来说都足够了。与Lucid相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们看看它的高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来ET7配备150kWh电池（也有更小的选择），续航里程可达1,000公里，相当于约620英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和Lucid的表现都很好——旗舰S Plaid的EPA续航里程为350英里。凭借其在为电动赛车开发和供应赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid制造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可以降低资源使用量并减轻车辆重量。反过来，这确实会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控和驾驶性能。到目前为止，Lucid还不是当今最大的电动汽车参与者，但其工程师已经开发出了一些目前所有活跃的电动汽车参与者中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常关注最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7使用以下传感单元来实现此目标：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>凭借33个高达800万像素的传感器，蔚来的传感能力轻松击败了特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉Model 3已准备好实现全自动驾驶，仅使用8个摄像头，每个摄像头为120万像素。因此，ET7中蔚来的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于M3中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中使用了32个额外的传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是优越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术应用到其车辆中时并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7使用四个NVIDIA(NVDA)Orin SoC，每个SoC每秒提供略高于250万亿次运算，总计算能力超过1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还可以提供自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。应该指出的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，并将未来的软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中不应该是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个板载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3已准备好L5）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅靠强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，因为设计、制造质量等也必须考虑在内。幸运的是，蔚来和Lucid在此基础上竞争非常好，尽管由于销量较低，Lucid的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，并且其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost报道J.D。Power将蔚来评为国内质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid在该国尚未活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和Lucid看起来都很强大，蔚来更关注电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而Lucid则更关注发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有其优势，但我个人认为蔚来从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为没有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业应该会非常方便。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会给蔚来带来巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车企业将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车企业，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都给予了折扣，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于Lucid来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并不是一件容易的事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid可能也是如此，该公司将不得不在未来几个月和几个季度高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的30倍，而且根本不能保证这些收入会真正产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid或蔚来股票更值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid都拥有有吸引力的产品，这些产品在越来越多进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎极具竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当以过高的价格买入时，估值可能会成为主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来而言，这似乎并不是一个过大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值而言，其股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的4倍，与LCID、RIVN、TSLA相比有明显的折扣，等等。另一方面，Lucid的估值非常高，是明年销售额的30倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展，以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两家公司中更好的选择。对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说，最近的股价下跌是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场的竞争越来越激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使得它们能够要求很高的平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从产量增长的角度来看，它走得更远，我相信它是当今更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉（TSLA）之外，也有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将对Lucid Group，Inc.(LCID)和蔚来（蔚来）进行对比，这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并探讨两家公司的个别风险。总体而言，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两个选择中更具吸引力的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的Lucid和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于600万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，全球销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY），具体取决于插电式混合动力车的计算方式。蔚来和Lucid Group，Inc.目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约11,000辆汽车，相当于年销量约130,000辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能会超过13万辆，因为交付量应该会继续连续攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid目前的规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已售出数百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group的目标是交付约20,000辆汽车，比2021年增长很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID与蔚来过去的季度表现</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来过去三个月的销售业绩远强于Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为LCID刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，从股价来看，Lucid的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID上涨了近50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近20%。就蔚来而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而LCID则从Rivian(RIVN)IPO的巨大成功引发的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者购买Lucid的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来今天的价值要高得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>该股的交易价格不到共识价格目标的一半，这意味着明年有100%以上的上涨空间，而LCID的交易价格几乎完全符合当前的共识价格目标，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来上个季度的表现不佳似乎使该公司在当前水平上表现强劲，而Lucid则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解这两家公司的技术、品牌及其具体的主要风险。蔚来和Lucid都活跃在电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉的平均水平。蔚来的平均售价约为7万美元，Lucid的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司销售的是最昂贵的Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。特斯拉是目前电动汽车的领导者，其平均售价约为50,000美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司怎么能要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价呢？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来的电池交换技术允许其客户在几分钟内充满“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的900V技术既可以实现巨大的续航里程，又可以实现快速充电速度——Lucid的架构允许客户在短短20分钟内充电长达300英里的电量。作为参考，特斯拉S采用约400V架构，允许客户在15分钟内充电200英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和Lucid的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也很有竞争力。Lucid Air Dream的EPA续航里程为520英里，对于几乎所有用例来说都足够了。与Lucid相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们看看它的高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来ET7配备150kWh电池（也有更小的选择），续航里程可达1,000公里，相当于约620英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和Lucid的表现都很好——旗舰S Plaid的EPA续航里程为350英里。凭借其在为电动赛车开发和供应赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid制造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可以降低资源使用量并减轻车辆重量。反过来，这确实会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控和驾驶性能。到目前为止，Lucid还不是当今最大的电动汽车参与者，但其工程师已经开发出了一些目前所有活跃的电动汽车参与者中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常关注最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7使用以下传感单元来实现此目标：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>凭借33个高达800万像素的传感器，蔚来的传感能力轻松击败了特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉Model 3已准备好实现全自动驾驶，仅使用8个摄像头，每个摄像头为120万像素。因此，ET7中蔚来的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于M3中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中使用了32个额外的传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是优越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术应用到其车辆中时并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7使用四个NVIDIA(NVDA)Orin SoC，每个SoC每秒提供略高于250万亿次运算，总计算能力超过1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还可以提供自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。应该指出的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，并将未来的软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中不应该是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个板载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3已准备好L5）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅靠强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，因为设计、制造质量等也必须考虑在内。幸运的是，蔚来和Lucid在此基础上竞争非常好，尽管由于销量较低，Lucid的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，并且其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost报道J.D。Power将蔚来评为国内质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid在该国尚未活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和Lucid看起来都很强大，蔚来更关注电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而Lucid则更关注发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有其优势，但我个人认为蔚来从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为没有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业应该会非常方便。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会给蔚来带来巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车企业将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车企业，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都给予了折扣，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于Lucid来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并不是一件容易的事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid可能也是如此，该公司将不得不在未来几个月和几个季度高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的30倍，而且根本不能保证这些收入会真正产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid或蔚来股票更值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid都拥有有吸引力的产品，这些产品在越来越多进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎极具竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当以过高的价格买入时，估值可能会成为主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来而言，这似乎并不是一个过大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值而言，其股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的4倍，与LCID、RIVN、TSLA相比有明显的折扣，等等。另一方面，Lucid的估值非常高，是明年销售额的30倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展，以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两家公司中更好的选择。对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说，最近的股价下跌是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139674064","content_text":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisThe EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we'll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we'll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.Lucid And NIO In The EV MarketThe global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.LCID Vs. NIO's Past Quarterly PerformanceAs noted above, NIO's sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:Data by YChartsOver the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO's case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian's (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid's stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:Data by YChartsShares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO's underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can't be said about Lucid.Lucid Vs. NIO Key MetricsLet's take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO's ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid's ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.NIO's battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully \"recharge\" in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn't employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid's architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO's solution, as well as Lucid's solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.NIO's and Lucid's tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:Source: Lucid presentationA smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:Source: NIOWith 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO's sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO's sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO's offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO's self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn't be a very difficult task. Lucid's self-driving tech, even though it doesn't get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO's Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).Strong tech alone doesn't make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles' quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid's ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.For Lucid, regulation doesn't seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as \"Production Hell\". The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It's not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID's high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year's expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.In NIO's case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year's expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year's sales.I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603339931,"gmtCreate":1638363796191,"gmtModify":1638363796274,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good move","listText":"Good move","text":"Good move","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603339931","repostId":"1149327708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":171363206,"gmtCreate":1626706795005,"gmtModify":1631885198727,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171363206","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156070695,"gmtCreate":1625188305617,"gmtModify":1631885198740,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is good!","listText":"This is good!","text":"This is 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inclusive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134840419","repostId":"2138488613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134854993,"gmtCreate":1622217331312,"gmtModify":1631890523805,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never stops reinventing!","listText":"Never stops reinventing!","text":"Never stops reinventing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134854993","repostId":"2138610425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135329485,"gmtCreate":1622132937947,"gmtModify":1631890523807,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to generate competition!","listText":"Good to generate competition!","text":"Good to generate competition!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135329485","repostId":"1121857498","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121857498","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622126802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121857498?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 22:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121857498","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-","content":"<p>Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司表示，准备在两年内将其最畅销的A320系列喷气式飞机的产量提高到超过大流行前的水平，这给为全球复苏做好准备的航空业带来了乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p>Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的商用喷气式客机制造商告诉供应商，准备到2023年第二季度将窄体飞机的产量提高到每月64架，随后欧洲和美国的航空航天股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.</p><p><blockquote>空客周四在一份声明中表示，明年初，这一数字可能会升至每月70架，到2025年可能达到75架。达到这一水平将使其目前因大流行而低迷的产量几乎翻倍。</blockquote></p><p>The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.</p><p><blockquote>在Covid-19消除了航空旅行需求后，这一雄心勃勃的计划在仍在努力获得牵引力的行业中脱颖而出。尽管疫情出现了短期疫情，但随着疫苗在全球的推出，长期前景已经变得光明。随着航空公司增加短途航班时刻表，空中客车公司和美国竞争对手波音公司表现出了更多信心。尽管如此，该行业仍面临着下一个挑战，即降低碳排放的压力。</blockquote></p><p>“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师桑迪·莫里斯(Sandy Morris)表示：“我们认为现在还为时过早，但空客是一家与航空公司客户不断对话的公司，迄今为止，空客的表现相当不错。”他说，他担心疫情和减排举措的进一步破坏。“尽管如此，空客也会知道这一切。”</blockquote></p><p>Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.</p><p><blockquote>空客股价在巴黎飙升10%，至107.50欧元，创11月以来最大盘中涨幅。在欧洲，发动机和零部件供应商赛峰集团(Safran SA)上涨4.6%，为大型飞机提供涡轮机的劳斯莱斯控股公司(Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc)上涨4.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt &amp; Whitney, gained 1.8%.</p><p><blockquote>纽约上午10点02分，总部位于芝加哥的波音公司股价上涨4.1%，此前737大客户西南航空公司的负责人告诉《达拉斯晨报》，这家折扣航空公司可能会增加“数百架飞机”。发动机供应商通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)上涨4%，普惠公司(Pratt&amp;Whitney)旗下雷神技术公司(Raytheon Technologies Corp.)上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Web of Suppliers</p><p><blockquote>供应商网络</blockquote></p><p>The Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.</p><p><blockquote>空客的声明将使从发动机到座椅和航空电子设备等零部件的制造商有时间进行投资，并在需求恢复时做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.</p><p><blockquote>Agency Partners分析师Sash Tusa表示，空客的评论部分是为了对其庞大的供应商网络进行压力测试，以确保他们能够实现更高的目标，同时向客户发出信号，表明它可以遵守交付要求，不会接受订单延期或取消。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司和波音公司依靠数千家制造商来制造成本高达1亿美元或更高的商用喷气式客机。</blockquote></p><p>“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.</p><p><blockquote>空客首席执行官Guillaume Faury在声明中表示：“向我们的供应商社区传达的信息为整个工业生态系统提供了可见性，以确保必要的能力，并在看涨期权市场条件允许时做好准备。”</blockquote></p><p>Near-Term Jump</p><p><blockquote>近期跳跃</blockquote></p><p>Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于法国图卢兹的空中客车公司在疫情期间扩大了其在单通道飞机方面对波音的领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着周四的宣布，该公司确认了早些时候计划在今年第三季度将A320系列飞机的产量提高到每月43架，第四季度达到45架。现在这个数字是每月40人，比2020年初疫情爆发时低了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.</p><p><blockquote>空客还计划在2022年初将小型A220的产量从每月5架提高到6架，预计到本世纪中期每月14架。图萨表示，实现这一目标将需要大量的进一步订单。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在A320的主要竞争对手737 Max全球停飞方面也取得了进展。这家美国飞机制造商上月底重申，计划在2022年初逐步将单通道喷气式飞机的产量提高到每月31架。</blockquote></p><p>Wide-Body Plans</p><p><blockquote>宽体计划</blockquote></p><p>Larger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.</p><p><blockquote>由于长途旅行落后于区域跳跃的反弹，预计大型双通道飞机需要更长的时间才能恢复。空客表示，将把A330飞机的产量保持在每月两架，同时希望在2022年下半年将A350飞机的产量从每月五架提高到六架。两者均由劳斯莱斯发动机提供动力。</blockquote></p><p>In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.</p><p><blockquote>空客向供应商发出信号，为增产做好准备，希望避免重蹈去年10月冠状病毒封锁首次解除后宣布增产的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p>When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.</p><p><blockquote>当新一波感染出现时，该公司在1月份放慢了计划，放弃了到7月份每月达到47架A320的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.</p><p><blockquote>福里还希望确保供应商和空客自己的工厂都能够应对创纪录的月费率的压力。空客在疫情爆发前遭遇了交接延迟，因为它难以满足A321版本的定制要求，导致2019年的交付目标被削减。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，空中客车公司表示，已重新开始将一条曾用于其A380超大型客机的法国装配线改造成单通道喷气式飞机。它应该在2022年底投入运营。</blockquote></p><p>Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.</p><p><blockquote>早在2018年，空客就曾宣扬每月70甚至75的建造率，但在福里的领导下，它抑制了这些雄心。当疫情来袭时，空客计划将A320系列的产量提高到每月63架，空客计划再增加一架或两架。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司表示，准备在两年内将其最畅销的A320系列喷气式飞机的产量提高到超过大流行前的水平，这给为全球复苏做好准备的航空业带来了乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p>Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的商用喷气式客机制造商告诉供应商，准备到2023年第二季度将窄体飞机的产量提高到每月64架，随后欧洲和美国的航空航天股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.</p><p><blockquote>空客周四在一份声明中表示，明年初，这一数字可能会升至每月70架，到2025年可能达到75架。达到这一水平将使其目前因大流行而低迷的产量几乎翻倍。</blockquote></p><p>The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.</p><p><blockquote>在Covid-19消除了航空旅行需求后，这一雄心勃勃的计划在仍在努力获得牵引力的行业中脱颖而出。尽管疫情出现了短期疫情，但随着疫苗在全球的推出，长期前景已经变得光明。随着航空公司增加短途航班时刻表，空中客车公司和美国竞争对手波音公司表现出了更多信心。尽管如此，该行业仍面临着下一个挑战，即降低碳排放的压力。</blockquote></p><p>“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师桑迪·莫里斯(Sandy Morris)表示：“我们认为现在还为时过早，但空客是一家与航空公司客户不断对话的公司，迄今为止，空客的表现相当不错。”他说，他担心疫情和减排举措的进一步破坏。“尽管如此，空客也会知道这一切。”</blockquote></p><p>Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.</p><p><blockquote>空客股价在巴黎飙升10%，至107.50欧元，创11月以来最大盘中涨幅。在欧洲，发动机和零部件供应商赛峰集团(Safran SA)上涨4.6%，为大型飞机提供涡轮机的劳斯莱斯控股公司(Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc)上涨4.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt &amp; Whitney, gained 1.8%.</p><p><blockquote>纽约上午10点02分，总部位于芝加哥的波音公司股价上涨4.1%，此前737大客户西南航空公司的负责人告诉《达拉斯晨报》，这家折扣航空公司可能会增加“数百架飞机”。发动机供应商通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)上涨4%，普惠公司(Pratt&amp;Whitney)旗下雷神技术公司(Raytheon Technologies Corp.)上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Web of Suppliers</p><p><blockquote>供应商网络</blockquote></p><p>The Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.</p><p><blockquote>空客的声明将使从发动机到座椅和航空电子设备等零部件的制造商有时间进行投资，并在需求恢复时做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.</p><p><blockquote>Agency Partners分析师Sash Tusa表示，空客的评论部分是为了对其庞大的供应商网络进行压力测试，以确保他们能够实现更高的目标，同时向客户发出信号，表明它可以遵守交付要求，不会接受订单延期或取消。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司和波音公司依靠数千家制造商来制造成本高达1亿美元或更高的商用喷气式客机。</blockquote></p><p>“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.</p><p><blockquote>空客首席执行官Guillaume Faury在声明中表示：“向我们的供应商社区传达的信息为整个工业生态系统提供了可见性，以确保必要的能力，并在看涨期权市场条件允许时做好准备。”</blockquote></p><p>Near-Term Jump</p><p><blockquote>近期跳跃</blockquote></p><p>Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于法国图卢兹的空中客车公司在疫情期间扩大了其在单通道飞机方面对波音的领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着周四的宣布，该公司确认了早些时候计划在今年第三季度将A320系列飞机的产量提高到每月43架，第四季度达到45架。现在这个数字是每月40人，比2020年初疫情爆发时低了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.</p><p><blockquote>空客还计划在2022年初将小型A220的产量从每月5架提高到6架，预计到本世纪中期每月14架。图萨表示，实现这一目标将需要大量的进一步订单。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在A320的主要竞争对手737 Max全球停飞方面也取得了进展。这家美国飞机制造商上月底重申，计划在2022年初逐步将单通道喷气式飞机的产量提高到每月31架。</blockquote></p><p>Wide-Body Plans</p><p><blockquote>宽体计划</blockquote></p><p>Larger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.</p><p><blockquote>由于长途旅行落后于区域跳跃的反弹，预计大型双通道飞机需要更长的时间才能恢复。空客表示，将把A330飞机的产量保持在每月两架，同时希望在2022年下半年将A350飞机的产量从每月五架提高到六架。两者均由劳斯莱斯发动机提供动力。</blockquote></p><p>In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.</p><p><blockquote>空客向供应商发出信号，为增产做好准备，希望避免重蹈去年10月冠状病毒封锁首次解除后宣布增产的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p>When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.</p><p><blockquote>当新一波感染出现时，该公司在1月份放慢了计划，放弃了到7月份每月达到47架A320的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.</p><p><blockquote>福里还希望确保供应商和空客自己的工厂都能够应对创纪录的月费率的压力。空客在疫情爆发前遭遇了交接延迟，因为它难以满足A321版本的定制要求，导致2019年的交付目标被削减。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，空中客车公司表示，已重新开始将一条曾用于其A380超大型客机的法国装配线改造成单通道喷气式飞机。它应该在2022年底投入运营。</blockquote></p><p>Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.</p><p><blockquote>早在2018年，空客就曾宣扬每月70甚至75的建造率，但在福里的领导下，它抑制了这些雄心。当疫情来袭时，空客计划将A320系列的产量提高到每月63架，空客计划再增加一架或两架。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121857498","content_text":"Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt & Whitney, gained 1.8%.Web of SuppliersThe Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.Near-Term JumpAirbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.Wide-Body PlansLarger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135386433,"gmtCreate":1622131386722,"gmtModify":1631890523812,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","listText":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","text":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135386433","repostId":"2138517320","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136514175,"gmtCreate":1622027930197,"gmtModify":1631888654118,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Green","listText":"Green","text":"Green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136514175","repostId":"2138199591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138199591","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622022666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2138199591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 17:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在大流行之后销量会大幅增长</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138199591","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade\nDiners heading back to restaurants will expand acc","content":"<p>Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade</p><p><blockquote>分析师上调评级后Beyond Meat股价飙升10%</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b2f7a57915bc05128da8a8e8c2a794\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"880\"><span>Diners heading back to restaurants will expand access to Beyond Meat beyond the grocery store. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>返回餐馆的食客将扩大Beyond Meat在杂货店之外的范围。法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat Inc. has been squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the vaccine rollout driving the return to restaurants, Bernstein analysts are upbeat about the plant-based meat company's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat公司受到COVID-19大流行的挤压，但随着疫苗的推出推动餐厅回归，Bernstein分析师对这家植物性肉类公司的前景持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein upgraded Beyond Meat <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a> to outperform from underperform in a note published Monday, calling the company \"a reopening play that stands toregain meaningful momentum over the coming quarters.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein升级Beyond Meat<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a>周一发布的一份报告称，该公司是“一家重新开业的公司，将在未来几个季度重新获得有意义的动力”。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein has a $130 price target on Beyond Meat.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein对Beyond Meat的目标价为130美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the plant-based meat company soared 10% in Monday trading after the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>升级后，这家植物性肉类公司的股价在周一交易中飙升10%。</blockquote></p><p> One consequence of increased dining at home has been a rise in competition at the grocery store. Impossible Foods, which has been expanding in the retail channel as well as in restaurants, has benefited.</p><p><blockquote>在家就餐增加的一个后果是杂货店的竞争加剧。Impossible Foods一直在零售渠道和餐厅扩张，从中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are reports that Impossible Foods is preparing for a $10 billion IPO .</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，Impossible Foods正在准备100亿美元的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat has partnerships with McDonald's Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(MCD)$</a>, as well as a number of other big chains , along with its own expanding retail availability.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat与麦当劳公司有合作伙伴关系。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(MCD)$</a>，以及许多其他大型连锁店，以及其自身不断扩大的零售供应。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drop off in foodservice sales had a very direct impact on the business domestically and internationally, and this in turn led to a marked acceleration in Impossible Foods' efforts to expand in retail channels,\" wrote Bernstein analysts led by Alexia Howard.</p><p><blockquote>以亚历克西娅·霍华德(Alexia Howard)为首的伯恩斯坦分析师写道：“餐饮服务销售额的下降对国内和国际业务产生了非常直接的影响，这反过来又导致Impossible Foods在零售渠道扩张方面的努力明显加快。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect foodservice channels to rebound as consumer mobility improves post the pandemic and this should also lead to decreased competition in the U.S. retail channel.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计，随着大流行后消费者流动性的改善，餐饮服务渠道将会反弹，这也应该会导致美国零售渠道的竞争减少。”</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Bernstein highlights the international expansion that will come with a new Dutch facility and the aforementioned McDonald's deal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伯恩斯坦强调了新的荷兰工厂和上述麦当劳交易将带来的国际扩张。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the growing access, Beyond Meat, and the plant-based alternatives category more broadly, is getting a boost from consumer trends that favor fewer animal proteins for health and environmental purposes.</p><p><blockquote>除了获得越来越多的机会之外，Beyond Meat以及更广泛的植物替代品类别也受到消费者趋势的推动，消费者趋势倾向于出于健康和环境目的减少动物蛋白。</blockquote></p><p> \"Diets constantly evolve, and consumers are increasingly adhering to diets that limit animal products in some way,\" according to a report from Technomic, a data and analytics provider for the food-service industry.</p><p><blockquote>食品服务行业数据和分析提供商Technomic的一份报告称：“饮食在不断发展，消费者越来越多地坚持以某种方式限制动物产品的饮食。”</blockquote></p><p> The flexitarian diet allows for a variety of animal-based items, and therefore isn't as strict as vegetarianism or veganism.</p><p><blockquote>灵活饮食允许各种动物性食物，因此不像素食主义或纯素食主义那样严格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The flexitarian diet has increased the most since 2018 and has the highest adherence, likely because it's the most accommodating and customizable,\" Technomic said.</p><p><blockquote>Technomic表示：“自2018年以来，灵活素食饮食的增幅最大，依从性最高，可能是因为它最具适应性和可定制性。”</blockquote></p><p> Even as diners head back out after a year of preparing most of their meals at home, Bernstein expects plant-based items to still populate plates.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦预计，即使食客在家里准备了一年的大部分饭菜后再次外出，植物性食物仍会占据盘子。</blockquote></p><p> \"[W]hile meat alternatives as a category are clearly still being buoyed by the relative strength of food at home vs. food away from home and we would expect this to fade as reopening happens and foodservice channels open up, it certainly doesn't seem as though momentum for plant-based meats has evaporated during the pandemic,\" analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然肉类替代品作为一个类别显然仍然受到家庭食品与外出食品相对优势的提振，而且我们预计随着重新开放和餐饮服务渠道的开放，这种情况会逐渐消失，但情况肯定不会如此。尽管植物性肉类的势头在大流行期间已经消失，”分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat stock has fallen 4.3% for the year to date while the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index is up 11.5% for the period.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat股价今年迄今已下跌4.3%，而基准标普500指数同期上涨11.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在大流行之后销量会大幅增长</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在大流行之后销量会大幅增长</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 17:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade</p><p><blockquote>分析师上调评级后Beyond Meat股价飙升10%</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b2f7a57915bc05128da8a8e8c2a794\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"880\"><span>Diners heading back to restaurants will expand access to Beyond Meat beyond the grocery store. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>返回餐馆的食客将扩大Beyond Meat在杂货店之外的范围。法新社来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat Inc. has been squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the vaccine rollout driving the return to restaurants, Bernstein analysts are upbeat about the plant-based meat company's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat公司受到COVID-19大流行的挤压，但随着疫苗的推出推动餐厅回归，Bernstein分析师对这家植物性肉类公司的前景持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein upgraded Beyond Meat <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a> to outperform from underperform in a note published Monday, calling the company \"a reopening play that stands toregain meaningful momentum over the coming quarters.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein升级Beyond Meat<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a>周一发布的一份报告称，该公司是“一家重新开业的公司，将在未来几个季度重新获得有意义的动力”。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein has a $130 price target on Beyond Meat.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein对Beyond Meat的目标价为130美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the plant-based meat company soared 10% in Monday trading after the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>升级后，这家植物性肉类公司的股价在周一交易中飙升10%。</blockquote></p><p> One consequence of increased dining at home has been a rise in competition at the grocery store. Impossible Foods, which has been expanding in the retail channel as well as in restaurants, has benefited.</p><p><blockquote>在家就餐增加的一个后果是杂货店的竞争加剧。Impossible Foods一直在零售渠道和餐厅扩张，从中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are reports that Impossible Foods is preparing for a $10 billion IPO .</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，Impossible Foods正在准备100亿美元的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat has partnerships with McDonald's Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(MCD)$</a>, as well as a number of other big chains , along with its own expanding retail availability.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat与麦当劳公司有合作伙伴关系。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(MCD)$</a>，以及许多其他大型连锁店，以及其自身不断扩大的零售供应。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drop off in foodservice sales had a very direct impact on the business domestically and internationally, and this in turn led to a marked acceleration in Impossible Foods' efforts to expand in retail channels,\" wrote Bernstein analysts led by Alexia Howard.</p><p><blockquote>以亚历克西娅·霍华德(Alexia Howard)为首的伯恩斯坦分析师写道：“餐饮服务销售额的下降对国内和国际业务产生了非常直接的影响，这反过来又导致Impossible Foods在零售渠道扩张方面的努力明显加快。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect foodservice channels to rebound as consumer mobility improves post the pandemic and this should also lead to decreased competition in the U.S. retail channel.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计，随着大流行后消费者流动性的改善，餐饮服务渠道将会反弹，这也应该会导致美国零售渠道的竞争减少。”</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Bernstein highlights the international expansion that will come with a new Dutch facility and the aforementioned McDonald's deal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伯恩斯坦强调了新的荷兰工厂和上述麦当劳交易将带来的国际扩张。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the growing access, Beyond Meat, and the plant-based alternatives category more broadly, is getting a boost from consumer trends that favor fewer animal proteins for health and environmental purposes.</p><p><blockquote>除了获得越来越多的机会之外，Beyond Meat以及更广泛的植物替代品类别也受到消费者趋势的推动，消费者趋势倾向于出于健康和环境目的减少动物蛋白。</blockquote></p><p> \"Diets constantly evolve, and consumers are increasingly adhering to diets that limit animal products in some way,\" according to a report from Technomic, a data and analytics provider for the food-service industry.</p><p><blockquote>食品服务行业数据和分析提供商Technomic的一份报告称：“饮食在不断发展，消费者越来越多地坚持以某种方式限制动物产品的饮食。”</blockquote></p><p> The flexitarian diet allows for a variety of animal-based items, and therefore isn't as strict as vegetarianism or veganism.</p><p><blockquote>灵活饮食允许各种动物性食物，因此不像素食主义或纯素食主义那样严格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The flexitarian diet has increased the most since 2018 and has the highest adherence, likely because it's the most accommodating and customizable,\" Technomic said.</p><p><blockquote>Technomic表示：“自2018年以来，灵活素食饮食的增幅最大，依从性最高，可能是因为它最具适应性和可定制性。”</blockquote></p><p> Even as diners head back out after a year of preparing most of their meals at home, Bernstein expects plant-based items to still populate plates.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦预计，即使食客在家里准备了一年的大部分饭菜后再次外出，植物性食物仍会占据盘子。</blockquote></p><p> \"[W]hile meat alternatives as a category are clearly still being buoyed by the relative strength of food at home vs. food away from home and we would expect this to fade as reopening happens and foodservice channels open up, it certainly doesn't seem as though momentum for plant-based meats has evaporated during the pandemic,\" analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然肉类替代品作为一个类别显然仍然受到家庭食品与外出食品相对优势的提振，而且我们预计随着重新开放和餐饮服务渠道的开放，这种情况会逐渐消失，但情况肯定不会如此。尽管植物性肉类的势头在大流行期间已经消失，”分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat stock has fallen 4.3% for the year to date while the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index is up 11.5% for the period.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat股价今年迄今已下跌4.3%，而基准标普500指数同期上涨11.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/restaurant-resurgence-will-put-beyond-meat-back-on-track-analyst-says-11621887221?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/restaurant-resurgence-will-put-beyond-meat-back-on-track-analyst-says-11621887221?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138199591","content_text":"Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade\nDiners heading back to restaurants will expand access to Beyond Meat beyond the grocery store. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nBeyond Meat Inc. has been squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the vaccine rollout driving the return to restaurants, Bernstein analysts are upbeat about the plant-based meat company's prospects.\nBernstein upgraded Beyond Meat $(BYND)$ to outperform from underperform in a note published Monday, calling the company \"a reopening play that stands toregain meaningful momentum over the coming quarters.\"\nBernstein has a $130 price target on Beyond Meat.\nShares of the plant-based meat company soared 10% in Monday trading after the upgrade.\nOne consequence of increased dining at home has been a rise in competition at the grocery store. Impossible Foods, which has been expanding in the retail channel as well as in restaurants, has benefited.\nThere are reports that Impossible Foods is preparing for a $10 billion IPO .\nBeyond Meat has partnerships with McDonald's Corp. $(MCD)$, as well as a number of other big chains , along with its own expanding retail availability.\n\"The drop off in foodservice sales had a very direct impact on the business domestically and internationally, and this in turn led to a marked acceleration in Impossible Foods' efforts to expand in retail channels,\" wrote Bernstein analysts led by Alexia Howard.\n\"We expect foodservice channels to rebound as consumer mobility improves post the pandemic and this should also lead to decreased competition in the U.S. retail channel.\"\nMoreover, Bernstein highlights the international expansion that will come with a new Dutch facility and the aforementioned McDonald's deal.\nIn addition to the growing access, Beyond Meat, and the plant-based alternatives category more broadly, is getting a boost from consumer trends that favor fewer animal proteins for health and environmental purposes.\n\"Diets constantly evolve, and consumers are increasingly adhering to diets that limit animal products in some way,\" according to a report from Technomic, a data and analytics provider for the food-service industry.\nThe flexitarian diet allows for a variety of animal-based items, and therefore isn't as strict as vegetarianism or veganism.\n\"The flexitarian diet has increased the most since 2018 and has the highest adherence, likely because it's the most accommodating and customizable,\" Technomic said.\nEven as diners head back out after a year of preparing most of their meals at home, Bernstein expects plant-based items to still populate plates.\n\"[W]hile meat alternatives as a category are clearly still being buoyed by the relative strength of food at home vs. food away from home and we would expect this to fade as reopening happens and foodservice channels open up, it certainly doesn't seem as though momentum for plant-based meats has evaporated during the pandemic,\" analysts said.\nBeyond Meat stock has fallen 4.3% for the year to date while the benchmark S&P 500 index is up 11.5% for the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136515934,"gmtCreate":1622027843828,"gmtModify":1631890523820,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good infor","listText":"Good infor","text":"Good infor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136515934","repostId":"1142524290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":110526379,"gmtCreate":1622470646291,"gmtModify":1631885198860,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110526379","repostId":"2139453630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119792739,"gmtCreate":1622563052021,"gmtModify":1631885198814,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice","listText":"Good advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119792739","repostId":"2139589924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137215956,"gmtCreate":1622349780375,"gmtModify":1631890523799,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need to work for it&nbsp;","listText":"Need to work for it&nbsp;","text":"Need to work for it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137215956","repostId":"1188611521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692804576,"gmtCreate":1640907362317,"gmtModify":1640907362430,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get both!","listText":"Get both!","text":"Get both!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692804576","repostId":"1139674064","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139674064","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640878484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139674064?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139674064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and gre","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场的竞争越来越激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使得它们能够要求很高的平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从产量增长的角度来看，它走得更远，我相信它是当今更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉（TSLA）之外，也有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将对Lucid Group，Inc.(LCID)和蔚来（蔚来）进行对比，这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并探讨两家公司的个别风险。总体而言，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两个选择中更具吸引力的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的Lucid和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于600万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，全球销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY），具体取决于插电式混合动力车的计算方式。蔚来和Lucid Group，Inc.目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约11,000辆汽车，相当于年销量约130,000辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能会超过13万辆，因为交付量应该会继续连续攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid目前的规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已售出数百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group的目标是交付约20,000辆汽车，比2021年增长很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID与蔚来过去的季度表现</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来过去三个月的销售业绩远强于Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为LCID刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，从股价来看，Lucid的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID上涨了近50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近20%。就蔚来而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而LCID则从Rivian(RIVN)IPO的巨大成功引发的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者购买Lucid的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来今天的价值要高得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>该股的交易价格不到共识价格目标的一半，这意味着明年有100%以上的上涨空间，而LCID的交易价格几乎完全符合当前的共识价格目标，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来上个季度的表现不佳似乎使该公司在当前水平上表现强劲，而Lucid则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解这两家公司的技术、品牌及其具体的主要风险。蔚来和Lucid都活跃在电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉的平均水平。蔚来的平均售价约为7万美元，Lucid的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司销售的是最昂贵的Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。特斯拉是目前电动汽车的领导者，其平均售价约为50,000美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司怎么能要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价呢？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来的电池交换技术允许其客户在几分钟内充满“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的900V技术既可以实现巨大的续航里程，又可以实现快速充电速度——Lucid的架构允许客户在短短20分钟内充电长达300英里的电量。作为参考，特斯拉S采用约400V架构，允许客户在15分钟内充电200英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和Lucid的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也很有竞争力。Lucid Air Dream的EPA续航里程为520英里，对于几乎所有用例来说都足够了。与Lucid相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们看看它的高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来ET7配备150kWh电池（也有更小的选择），续航里程可达1,000公里，相当于约620英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和Lucid的表现都很好——旗舰S Plaid的EPA续航里程为350英里。凭借其在为电动赛车开发和供应赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid制造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可以降低资源使用量并减轻车辆重量。反过来，这确实会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控和驾驶性能。到目前为止，Lucid还不是当今最大的电动汽车参与者，但其工程师已经开发出了一些目前所有活跃的电动汽车参与者中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常关注最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7使用以下传感单元来实现此目标：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>凭借33个高达800万像素的传感器，蔚来的传感能力轻松击败了特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉Model 3已准备好实现全自动驾驶，仅使用8个摄像头，每个摄像头为120万像素。因此，ET7中蔚来的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于M3中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中使用了32个额外的传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是优越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术应用到其车辆中时并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7使用四个NVIDIA(NVDA)Orin SoC，每个SoC每秒提供略高于250万亿次运算，总计算能力超过1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还可以提供自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。应该指出的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，并将未来的软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中不应该是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个板载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3已准备好L5）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅靠强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，因为设计、制造质量等也必须考虑在内。幸运的是，蔚来和Lucid在此基础上竞争非常好，尽管由于销量较低，Lucid的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，并且其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost报道J.D。Power将蔚来评为国内质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid在该国尚未活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和Lucid看起来都很强大，蔚来更关注电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而Lucid则更关注发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有其优势，但我个人认为蔚来从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为没有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业应该会非常方便。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会给蔚来带来巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车企业将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车企业，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都给予了折扣，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于Lucid来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并不是一件容易的事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid可能也是如此，该公司将不得不在未来几个月和几个季度高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的30倍，而且根本不能保证这些收入会真正产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid或蔚来股票更值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid都拥有有吸引力的产品，这些产品在越来越多进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎极具竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当以过高的价格买入时，估值可能会成为主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来而言，这似乎并不是一个过大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值而言，其股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的4倍，与LCID、RIVN、TSLA相比有明显的折扣，等等。另一方面，Lucid的估值非常高，是明年销售额的30倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展，以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两家公司中更好的选择。对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说，最近的股价下跌是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场的竞争越来越激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使得它们能够要求很高的平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从产量增长的角度来看，它走得更远，我相信它是当今更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉（TSLA）之外，也有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将对Lucid Group，Inc.(LCID)和蔚来（蔚来）进行对比，这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并探讨两家公司的个别风险。总体而言，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两个选择中更具吸引力的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的Lucid和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于600万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，全球销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY），具体取决于插电式混合动力车的计算方式。蔚来和Lucid Group，Inc.目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约11,000辆汽车，相当于年销量约130,000辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能会超过13万辆，因为交付量应该会继续连续攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid目前的规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已售出数百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group的目标是交付约20,000辆汽车，比2021年增长很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID与蔚来过去的季度表现</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来过去三个月的销售业绩远强于Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为LCID刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，从股价来看，Lucid的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID上涨了近50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近20%。就蔚来而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而LCID则从Rivian(RIVN)IPO的巨大成功引发的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者购买Lucid的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来今天的价值要高得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>该股的交易价格不到共识价格目标的一半，这意味着明年有100%以上的上涨空间，而LCID的交易价格几乎完全符合当前的共识价格目标，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来上个季度的表现不佳似乎使该公司在当前水平上表现强劲，而Lucid则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解这两家公司的技术、品牌及其具体的主要风险。蔚来和Lucid都活跃在电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉的平均水平。蔚来的平均售价约为7万美元，Lucid的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司销售的是最昂贵的Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。特斯拉是目前电动汽车的领导者，其平均售价约为50,000美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司怎么能要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价呢？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来的电池交换技术允许其客户在几分钟内充满“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的900V技术既可以实现巨大的续航里程，又可以实现快速充电速度——Lucid的架构允许客户在短短20分钟内充电长达300英里的电量。作为参考，特斯拉S采用约400V架构，允许客户在15分钟内充电200英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和Lucid的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也很有竞争力。Lucid Air Dream的EPA续航里程为520英里，对于几乎所有用例来说都足够了。与Lucid相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们看看它的高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来ET7配备150kWh电池（也有更小的选择），续航里程可达1,000公里，相当于约620英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和Lucid的表现都很好——旗舰S Plaid的EPA续航里程为350英里。凭借其在为电动赛车开发和供应赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid制造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可以降低资源使用量并减轻车辆重量。反过来，这确实会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控和驾驶性能。到目前为止，Lucid还不是当今最大的电动汽车参与者，但其工程师已经开发出了一些目前所有活跃的电动汽车参与者中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常关注最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7使用以下传感单元来实现此目标：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>凭借33个高达800万像素的传感器，蔚来的传感能力轻松击败了特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉Model 3已准备好实现全自动驾驶，仅使用8个摄像头，每个摄像头为120万像素。因此，ET7中蔚来的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于M3中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中使用了32个额外的传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是优越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术应用到其车辆中时并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7使用四个NVIDIA(NVDA)Orin SoC，每个SoC每秒提供略高于250万亿次运算，总计算能力超过1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还可以提供自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。应该指出的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，并将未来的软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中不应该是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个板载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3已准备好L5）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅靠强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，因为设计、制造质量等也必须考虑在内。幸运的是，蔚来和Lucid在此基础上竞争非常好，尽管由于销量较低，Lucid的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，并且其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost报道J.D。Power将蔚来评为国内质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid在该国尚未活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和Lucid看起来都很强大，蔚来更关注电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而Lucid则更关注发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有其优势，但我个人认为蔚来从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为没有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业应该会非常方便。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会给蔚来带来巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车企业将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车企业，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都给予了折扣，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于Lucid来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并不是一件容易的事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid可能也是如此，该公司将不得不在未来几个月和几个季度高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的30倍，而且根本不能保证这些收入会真正产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid或蔚来股票更值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和Lucid都拥有有吸引力的产品，这些产品在越来越多进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎极具竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当以过高的价格买入时，估值可能会成为主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来而言，这似乎并不是一个过大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值而言，其股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的4倍，与LCID、RIVN、TSLA相比有明显的折扣，等等。另一方面，Lucid的估值非常高，是明年销售额的30倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展，以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两家公司中更好的选择。对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说，最近的股价下跌是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139674064","content_text":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisThe EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we'll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we'll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.Lucid And NIO In The EV MarketThe global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.LCID Vs. NIO's Past Quarterly PerformanceAs noted above, NIO's sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:Data by YChartsOver the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO's case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian's (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid's stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:Data by YChartsShares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO's underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can't be said about Lucid.Lucid Vs. NIO Key MetricsLet's take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO's ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid's ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.NIO's battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully \"recharge\" in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn't employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid's architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO's solution, as well as Lucid's solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.NIO's and Lucid's tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:Source: Lucid presentationA smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:Source: NIOWith 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO's sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO's sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO's offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO's self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn't be a very difficult task. Lucid's self-driving tech, even though it doesn't get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO's Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).Strong tech alone doesn't make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles' quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid's ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.For Lucid, regulation doesn't seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as \"Production Hell\". The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It's not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID's high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year's expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.In NIO's case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year's expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year's sales.I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156070695,"gmtCreate":1625188305617,"gmtModify":1631885198740,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is good!","listText":"This is good!","text":"This is 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move","listText":"Good move","text":"Good move","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603339931","repostId":"1149327708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137289733,"gmtCreate":1622350295622,"gmtModify":1631890523798,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do something constructive!","listText":"Do something constructive!","text":"Do something constructive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137289733","repostId":"2138306488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134840419,"gmtCreate":1622217469331,"gmtModify":1631890523803,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be inclusive!","listText":"Be inclusive!","text":"Be inclusive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134840419","repostId":"2138488613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171363206,"gmtCreate":1626706795005,"gmtModify":1631885198727,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171363206","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126313476,"gmtCreate":1624544269795,"gmtModify":1631885198781,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time in mkt!","listText":"Time in mkt!","text":"Time in mkt!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126313476","repostId":"1155360226","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135386433,"gmtCreate":1622131386722,"gmtModify":1631890523812,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","listText":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","text":"Not everyone is as 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new?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137281608","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119797041,"gmtCreate":1622563191783,"gmtModify":1631885198802,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news for the fight against the pandemic!","listText":"Good news for the fight against the pandemic!","text":"Good news for the fight against the pandemic!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119797041","repostId":"1147781211","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134854993,"gmtCreate":1622217331312,"gmtModify":1631890523805,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never stops reinventing!","listText":"Never stops reinventing!","text":"Never stops reinventing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134854993","repostId":"2138610425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135329485,"gmtCreate":1622132937947,"gmtModify":1631890523807,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to generate competition!","listText":"Good to generate competition!","text":"Good to generate competition!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135329485","repostId":"1121857498","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121857498","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622126802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121857498?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 22:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121857498","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-","content":"<p>Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司表示，准备在两年内将其最畅销的A320系列喷气式飞机的产量提高到超过大流行前的水平，这给为全球复苏做好准备的航空业带来了乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p>Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的商用喷气式客机制造商告诉供应商，准备到2023年第二季度将窄体飞机的产量提高到每月64架，随后欧洲和美国的航空航天股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.</p><p><blockquote>空客周四在一份声明中表示，明年初，这一数字可能会升至每月70架，到2025年可能达到75架。达到这一水平将使其目前因大流行而低迷的产量几乎翻倍。</blockquote></p><p>The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.</p><p><blockquote>在Covid-19消除了航空旅行需求后，这一雄心勃勃的计划在仍在努力获得牵引力的行业中脱颖而出。尽管疫情出现了短期疫情，但随着疫苗在全球的推出，长期前景已经变得光明。随着航空公司增加短途航班时刻表，空中客车公司和美国竞争对手波音公司表现出了更多信心。尽管如此，该行业仍面临着下一个挑战，即降低碳排放的压力。</blockquote></p><p>“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师桑迪·莫里斯(Sandy Morris)表示：“我们认为现在还为时过早，但空客是一家与航空公司客户不断对话的公司，迄今为止，空客的表现相当不错。”他说，他担心疫情和减排举措的进一步破坏。“尽管如此，空客也会知道这一切。”</blockquote></p><p>Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.</p><p><blockquote>空客股价在巴黎飙升10%，至107.50欧元，创11月以来最大盘中涨幅。在欧洲，发动机和零部件供应商赛峰集团(Safran SA)上涨4.6%，为大型飞机提供涡轮机的劳斯莱斯控股公司(Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc)上涨4.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt &amp; Whitney, gained 1.8%.</p><p><blockquote>纽约上午10点02分，总部位于芝加哥的波音公司股价上涨4.1%，此前737大客户西南航空公司的负责人告诉《达拉斯晨报》，这家折扣航空公司可能会增加“数百架飞机”。发动机供应商通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)上涨4%，普惠公司(Pratt&amp;Whitney)旗下雷神技术公司(Raytheon Technologies Corp.)上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Web of Suppliers</p><p><blockquote>供应商网络</blockquote></p><p>The Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.</p><p><blockquote>空客的声明将使从发动机到座椅和航空电子设备等零部件的制造商有时间进行投资，并在需求恢复时做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.</p><p><blockquote>Agency Partners分析师Sash Tusa表示，空客的评论部分是为了对其庞大的供应商网络进行压力测试，以确保他们能够实现更高的目标，同时向客户发出信号，表明它可以遵守交付要求，不会接受订单延期或取消。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司和波音公司依靠数千家制造商来制造成本高达1亿美元或更高的商用喷气式客机。</blockquote></p><p>“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.</p><p><blockquote>空客首席执行官Guillaume Faury在声明中表示：“向我们的供应商社区传达的信息为整个工业生态系统提供了可见性，以确保必要的能力，并在看涨期权市场条件允许时做好准备。”</blockquote></p><p>Near-Term Jump</p><p><blockquote>近期跳跃</blockquote></p><p>Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于法国图卢兹的空中客车公司在疫情期间扩大了其在单通道飞机方面对波音的领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着周四的宣布，该公司确认了早些时候计划在今年第三季度将A320系列飞机的产量提高到每月43架，第四季度达到45架。现在这个数字是每月40人，比2020年初疫情爆发时低了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.</p><p><blockquote>空客还计划在2022年初将小型A220的产量从每月5架提高到6架，预计到本世纪中期每月14架。图萨表示，实现这一目标将需要大量的进一步订单。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在A320的主要竞争对手737 Max全球停飞方面也取得了进展。这家美国飞机制造商上月底重申，计划在2022年初逐步将单通道喷气式飞机的产量提高到每月31架。</blockquote></p><p>Wide-Body Plans</p><p><blockquote>宽体计划</blockquote></p><p>Larger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.</p><p><blockquote>由于长途旅行落后于区域跳跃的反弹，预计大型双通道飞机需要更长的时间才能恢复。空客表示，将把A330飞机的产量保持在每月两架，同时希望在2022年下半年将A350飞机的产量从每月五架提高到六架。两者均由劳斯莱斯发动机提供动力。</blockquote></p><p>In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.</p><p><blockquote>空客向供应商发出信号，为增产做好准备，希望避免重蹈去年10月冠状病毒封锁首次解除后宣布增产的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p>When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.</p><p><blockquote>当新一波感染出现时，该公司在1月份放慢了计划，放弃了到7月份每月达到47架A320的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.</p><p><blockquote>福里还希望确保供应商和空客自己的工厂都能够应对创纪录的月费率的压力。空客在疫情爆发前遭遇了交接延迟，因为它难以满足A321版本的定制要求，导致2019年的交付目标被削减。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，空中客车公司表示，已重新开始将一条曾用于其A380超大型客机的法国装配线改造成单通道喷气式飞机。它应该在2022年底投入运营。</blockquote></p><p>Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.</p><p><blockquote>早在2018年，空客就曾宣扬每月70甚至75的建造率，但在福里的领导下，它抑制了这些雄心。当疫情来袭时，空客计划将A320系列的产量提高到每月63架，空客计划再增加一架或两架。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司表示，准备在两年内将其最畅销的A320系列喷气式飞机的产量提高到超过大流行前的水平，这给为全球复苏做好准备的航空业带来了乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p>Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的商用喷气式客机制造商告诉供应商，准备到2023年第二季度将窄体飞机的产量提高到每月64架，随后欧洲和美国的航空航天股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.</p><p><blockquote>空客周四在一份声明中表示，明年初，这一数字可能会升至每月70架，到2025年可能达到75架。达到这一水平将使其目前因大流行而低迷的产量几乎翻倍。</blockquote></p><p>The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.</p><p><blockquote>在Covid-19消除了航空旅行需求后，这一雄心勃勃的计划在仍在努力获得牵引力的行业中脱颖而出。尽管疫情出现了短期疫情，但随着疫苗在全球的推出，长期前景已经变得光明。随着航空公司增加短途航班时刻表，空中客车公司和美国竞争对手波音公司表现出了更多信心。尽管如此，该行业仍面临着下一个挑战，即降低碳排放的压力。</blockquote></p><p>“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师桑迪·莫里斯(Sandy Morris)表示：“我们认为现在还为时过早，但空客是一家与航空公司客户不断对话的公司，迄今为止，空客的表现相当不错。”他说，他担心疫情和减排举措的进一步破坏。“尽管如此，空客也会知道这一切。”</blockquote></p><p>Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.</p><p><blockquote>空客股价在巴黎飙升10%，至107.50欧元，创11月以来最大盘中涨幅。在欧洲，发动机和零部件供应商赛峰集团(Safran SA)上涨4.6%，为大型飞机提供涡轮机的劳斯莱斯控股公司(Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc)上涨4.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt &amp; Whitney, gained 1.8%.</p><p><blockquote>纽约上午10点02分，总部位于芝加哥的波音公司股价上涨4.1%，此前737大客户西南航空公司的负责人告诉《达拉斯晨报》，这家折扣航空公司可能会增加“数百架飞机”。发动机供应商通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)上涨4%，普惠公司(Pratt&amp;Whitney)旗下雷神技术公司(Raytheon Technologies Corp.)上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Web of Suppliers</p><p><blockquote>供应商网络</blockquote></p><p>The Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.</p><p><blockquote>空客的声明将使从发动机到座椅和航空电子设备等零部件的制造商有时间进行投资，并在需求恢复时做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.</p><p><blockquote>Agency Partners分析师Sash Tusa表示，空客的评论部分是为了对其庞大的供应商网络进行压力测试，以确保他们能够实现更高的目标，同时向客户发出信号，表明它可以遵守交付要求，不会接受订单延期或取消。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.</p><p><blockquote>空中客车公司和波音公司依靠数千家制造商来制造成本高达1亿美元或更高的商用喷气式客机。</blockquote></p><p>“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.</p><p><blockquote>空客首席执行官Guillaume Faury在声明中表示：“向我们的供应商社区传达的信息为整个工业生态系统提供了可见性，以确保必要的能力，并在看涨期权市场条件允许时做好准备。”</blockquote></p><p>Near-Term Jump</p><p><blockquote>近期跳跃</blockquote></p><p>Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于法国图卢兹的空中客车公司在疫情期间扩大了其在单通道飞机方面对波音的领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着周四的宣布，该公司确认了早些时候计划在今年第三季度将A320系列飞机的产量提高到每月43架，第四季度达到45架。现在这个数字是每月40人，比2020年初疫情爆发时低了三分之一。</blockquote></p><p>Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.</p><p><blockquote>空客还计划在2022年初将小型A220的产量从每月5架提高到6架，预计到本世纪中期每月14架。图萨表示，实现这一目标将需要大量的进一步订单。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在A320的主要竞争对手737 Max全球停飞方面也取得了进展。这家美国飞机制造商上月底重申，计划在2022年初逐步将单通道喷气式飞机的产量提高到每月31架。</blockquote></p><p>Wide-Body Plans</p><p><blockquote>宽体计划</blockquote></p><p>Larger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.</p><p><blockquote>由于长途旅行落后于区域跳跃的反弹，预计大型双通道飞机需要更长的时间才能恢复。空客表示，将把A330飞机的产量保持在每月两架，同时希望在2022年下半年将A350飞机的产量从每月五架提高到六架。两者均由劳斯莱斯发动机提供动力。</blockquote></p><p>In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.</p><p><blockquote>空客向供应商发出信号，为增产做好准备，希望避免重蹈去年10月冠状病毒封锁首次解除后宣布增产的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p>When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.</p><p><blockquote>当新一波感染出现时，该公司在1月份放慢了计划，放弃了到7月份每月达到47架A320的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.</p><p><blockquote>福里还希望确保供应商和空客自己的工厂都能够应对创纪录的月费率的压力。空客在疫情爆发前遭遇了交接延迟，因为它难以满足A321版本的定制要求，导致2019年的交付目标被削减。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，空中客车公司表示，已重新开始将一条曾用于其A380超大型客机的法国装配线改造成单通道喷气式飞机。它应该在2022年底投入运营。</blockquote></p><p>Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.</p><p><blockquote>早在2018年，空客就曾宣扬每月70甚至75的建造率，但在福里的领导下，它抑制了这些雄心。当疫情来袭时，空客计划将A320系列的产量提高到每月63架，空客计划再增加一架或两架。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121857498","content_text":"Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt & Whitney, gained 1.8%.Web of SuppliersThe Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.Near-Term JumpAirbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.Wide-Body PlansLarger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136514175,"gmtCreate":1622027930197,"gmtModify":1631888654118,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Green","listText":"Green","text":"Green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136514175","repostId":"2138199591","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136515934,"gmtCreate":1622027843828,"gmtModify":1631890523820,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good infor","listText":"Good infor","text":"Good infor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136515934","repostId":"1142524290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}