JacAng的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JacAng

JacAng

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

54关注

3粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2021-12-31

Get both!

Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>

2021-12-01

Good move

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-19

New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-02

This is good!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

Great!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-30

Great

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-24

Time in mkt!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

Good advice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-01

Good news for the fight against the pandemic!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-01

Good advice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-31

Buy?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-30

What is new?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-30

Do something constructive!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-30

Need to work for it

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

Be inclusive!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

Never stops reinventing!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

Good to generate competition!

Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>

2021-05-28

Not everyone is as 'lucky'!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-26

Green

Why Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在疫情之后的销售额会大幅增长</blockquote>

2021-05-26

Good infor

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583642893131936","uuid":"3583642893131936","gmtCreate":1621426927248,"gmtModify":1621952846522,"name":"JacAng","pinyin":"jacang","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":54,"tweetSize":23,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.24","exceedPercentage":"60.55%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.20%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":692804576,"gmtCreate":1640907362317,"gmtModify":1640907362430,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Get both!","listText":"Get both!","text":"Get both!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692804576","repostId":"1139674064","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139674064","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640878484,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139674064?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139674064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and gre","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使他们能够要求高平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从生产斜坡的角度来看要远得多，我相信它是今天更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉 (TSLA) 之外，还有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将 Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) 和蔚来（蔚来）进行比较——这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并研究两家公司的个别风险。总的来说，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两者中更具吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的 Lucid 和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于 600 万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，世界各地销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机车辆。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK:BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY），这取决于人们如何计算插电式混合动力车。蔚来和 Lucid Group, Inc. 目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约 11,000 辆汽车，这意味着年销量约为 130,000 辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能超过 130,000 辆，因为交付量应该会继续环比攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid 目前规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已经售出了几百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group 的目标是交付约 20,000 辆汽车，比 2021 年增加了很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID 与蔚来过去季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来汽车过去三个月的销售业绩远远强于 Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为 LCID 刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，就股价而言，Lucid 的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID 上涨了近 50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近 20%。就蔚来汽车而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而 LCID 则从 Rivian (RIVN) 的巨大成功 IPO 带来的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者关注 Lucid 的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来如今的价值要好得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>股价交易价格不到共识目标价的一半，这意味着明年有 100% 以上的上涨空间，而 LCID 的交易价格几乎完全符合当前共识目标价，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来汽车上一季度的表现不佳似乎为该公司在当前水平上的强劲表现奠定了良好的基础，而 Lucid 则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解一下这两家公司的技术，以及它们的品牌，以及它们具体的主要风险。蔚来和 Lucid 都活跃于电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉平均水平。蔚来汽车的平均售价约为 70,000 美元，而 Lucid 的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司正在销售最昂贵的 Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。目前的电动汽车领导者特斯拉的平均售价约为 50,000 美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司如何能够要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来汽车的电池更换技术可以让客户在几分钟内完全“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid 不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的 900V 技术可以实现巨大的续航里程和快速的充电速度 - Lucid 的架构允许客户在短短 20 分钟内充电长达 300 英里的能量。作为参考，特斯拉 S 采用约 400V 架构，允许客户在 15 分钟内充电 200 英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和 Lucid 的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也极具竞争力。Lucid Air Dream 的 EPA 续航里程为 520 英里，几乎可以满足所有用例。与 Lucid 相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们查看其高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来 ET7 配备 150kWh 电池（也有更小的选项），续航里程可达 1,000 公里，相当于约 620 英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和 Lucid 的表现都很好——旗舰 S Plaid 的 EPA 续航里程为 350 英里。凭借其在开发和供应电动赛车赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid 打造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid 演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可降低资源使用率并减轻车辆重量。这反过来又会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控性和驾驶性能。Lucid 迄今为止还不是当今最大的电动汽车制造商，但其工程师已经开发了一些目前活跃的电动汽车制造商中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常重视最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7 为此使用以下传感单元：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来拥有 33 个传感器，使用高达 8MP，其传感能力轻松超越特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉 Model 3 已准备好实现全自动驾驶，但仅使用 8 个摄像头，每个摄像头为 120 万像素。因此，蔚来 ET7 中的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于 M3 中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中额外使用了 32 个传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是卓越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术融入其车辆方面并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7 使用四个 NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoC，每个 SoC 每秒可提供略高于 250 万亿次的操作，这使得综合计算能力超过 1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车辆中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还提供了自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。需要注意的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，将未来软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中应该不是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid 的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个车载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，M3的传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3是L5就绪）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅仅强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，就像设计、制造质量等一样。也必须考虑。幸运的是，蔚来和 Lucid 在此基础上竞争得非常好，尽管由于销售数字较低，Lucid 的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过 Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost 报道称，J.D。Power 将蔚来评为中国质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid 尚未在该国活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和 Lucid 看起来都很强大，蔚来更注重电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而 Lucid 则更注重发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有各自的优势，但我个人认为蔚来将从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为不会有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid 开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中应该会非常有用。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会对蔚来构成巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车制造商将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车制造商，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都打折，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Lucid 来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并非易事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid 的情况也是如此，该公司必须在未来几个月和几个季度内高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID 的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的 30 倍，而且根本无法保证这些收入真的会产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 还是蔚来股票更好买？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 都拥有有吸引力的产品，在越来越多的进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎具有高度竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当一个人以过高的价格购买时，估值可能是一个主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来汽车而言，这似乎并不是一个太大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值，股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的 4 倍，与 LCID、RIVN、TSLA 相比明显折扣等等。另一方面，Lucid 的估值非常高，是明年销售额的 30 倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两者中更好的选择。最近的股价下跌对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使他们能够要求高平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从生产斜坡的角度来看要远得多，我相信它是今天更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉 (TSLA) 之外，还有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将 Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) 和蔚来（蔚来）进行比较——这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并研究两家公司的个别风险。总的来说，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两者中更具吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的 Lucid 和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于 600 万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，世界各地销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机车辆。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK:BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY），这取决于人们如何计算插电式混合动力车。蔚来和 Lucid Group, Inc. 目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约 11,000 辆汽车，这意味着年销量约为 130,000 辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能超过 130,000 辆，因为交付量应该会继续环比攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid 目前规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已经售出了几百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group 的目标是交付约 20,000 辆汽车，比 2021 年增加了很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID 与蔚来过去季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来汽车过去三个月的销售业绩远远强于 Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为 LCID 刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，就股价而言，Lucid 的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID 上涨了近 50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近 20%。就蔚来汽车而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而 LCID 则从 Rivian (RIVN) 的巨大成功 IPO 带来的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者关注 Lucid 的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来如今的价值要好得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>股价交易价格不到共识目标价的一半，这意味着明年有 100% 以上的上涨空间，而 LCID 的交易价格几乎完全符合当前共识目标价，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来汽车上一季度的表现不佳似乎为该公司在当前水平上的强劲表现奠定了良好的基础，而 Lucid 则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解一下这两家公司的技术，以及它们的品牌，以及它们具体的主要风险。蔚来和 Lucid 都活跃于电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉平均水平。蔚来汽车的平均售价约为 70,000 美元，而 Lucid 的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司正在销售最昂贵的 Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。目前的电动汽车领导者特斯拉的平均售价约为 50,000 美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司如何能够要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来汽车的电池更换技术可以让客户在几分钟内完全“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid 不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的 900V 技术可以实现巨大的续航里程和快速的充电速度 - Lucid 的架构允许客户在短短 20 分钟内充电长达 300 英里的能量。作为参考，特斯拉 S 采用约 400V 架构，允许客户在 15 分钟内充电 200 英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和 Lucid 的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也极具竞争力。Lucid Air Dream 的 EPA 续航里程为 520 英里，几乎可以满足所有用例。与 Lucid 相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们查看其高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来 ET7 配备 150kWh 电池（也有更小的选项），续航里程可达 1,000 公里，相当于约 620 英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和 Lucid 的表现都很好——旗舰 S Plaid 的 EPA 续航里程为 350 英里。凭借其在开发和供应电动赛车赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid 打造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid 演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可降低资源使用率并减轻车辆重量。这反过来又会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控性和驾驶性能。Lucid 迄今为止还不是当今最大的电动汽车制造商，但其工程师已经开发了一些目前活跃的电动汽车制造商中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常重视最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7 为此使用以下传感单元：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来拥有 33 个传感器，使用高达 8MP，其传感能力轻松超越特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉 Model 3 已准备好实现全自动驾驶，但仅使用 8 个摄像头，每个摄像头为 120 万像素。因此，蔚来 ET7 中的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于 M3 中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中额外使用了 32 个传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是卓越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术融入其车辆方面并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7 使用四个 NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoC，每个 SoC 每秒可提供略高于 250 万亿次的操作，这使得综合计算能力超过 1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车辆中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还提供了自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。需要注意的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，将未来软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中应该不是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid 的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个车载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，M3的传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3是L5就绪）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅仅强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，就像设计、制造质量等一样。也必须考虑。幸运的是，蔚来和 Lucid 在此基础上竞争得非常好，尽管由于销售数字较低，Lucid 的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过 Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost 报道称，J.D。Power 将蔚来评为中国质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid 尚未在该国活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和 Lucid 看起来都很强大，蔚来更注重电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而 Lucid 则更注重发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有各自的优势，但我个人认为蔚来将从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为不会有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid 开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中应该会非常有用。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会对蔚来构成巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车制造商将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车制造商，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都打折，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Lucid 来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并非易事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid 的情况也是如此，该公司必须在未来几个月和几个季度内高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID 的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的 30 倍，而且根本无法保证这些收入真的会产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 还是蔚来股票更好买？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 都拥有有吸引力的产品，在越来越多的进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎具有高度竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当一个人以过高的价格购买时，估值可能是一个主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来汽车而言，这似乎并不是一个太大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值，股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的 4 倍，与 LCID、RIVN、TSLA 相比明显折扣等等。另一方面，Lucid 的估值非常高，是明年销售额的 30 倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两者中更好的选择。最近的股价下跌对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139674064","content_text":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisThe EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we'll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we'll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.Lucid And NIO In The EV MarketThe global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.LCID Vs. NIO's Past Quarterly PerformanceAs noted above, NIO's sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:Data by YChartsOver the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO's case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian's (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid's stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:Data by YChartsShares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO's underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can't be said about Lucid.Lucid Vs. NIO Key MetricsLet's take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO's ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid's ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.NIO's battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully \"recharge\" in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn't employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid's architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO's solution, as well as Lucid's solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.NIO's and Lucid's tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:Source: Lucid presentationA smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:Source: NIOWith 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO's sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO's sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO's offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO's self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn't be a very difficult task. Lucid's self-driving tech, even though it doesn't get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO's Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).Strong tech alone doesn't make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles' quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid's ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.For Lucid, regulation doesn't seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as \"Production Hell\". The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It's not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID's high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year's expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.In NIO's case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year's expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year's sales.I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603339931,"gmtCreate":1638363796191,"gmtModify":1638363796274,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good move","listText":"Good move","text":"Good move","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603339931","repostId":"1149327708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":171363206,"gmtCreate":1626706795005,"gmtModify":1631885198727,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171363206","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156070695,"gmtCreate":1625188305617,"gmtModify":1631885198740,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is good!","listText":"This is good!","text":"This is good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156070695","repostId":"1115716000","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158615486,"gmtCreate":1625147610945,"gmtModify":1631885198751,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158615486","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151954341,"gmtCreate":1625062355383,"gmtModify":1631885198763,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151954341","repostId":"2147815981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126313476,"gmtCreate":1624544269795,"gmtModify":1631885198781,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time in mkt!","listText":"Time in mkt!","text":"Time in mkt!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126313476","repostId":"1155360226","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163081478,"gmtCreate":1623853561994,"gmtModify":1631885198791,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good advice","listText":"Good advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163081478","repostId":"2143794134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119797041,"gmtCreate":1622563191783,"gmtModify":1631885198802,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news for the fight against the pandemic!","listText":"Good news for the fight against the pandemic!","text":"Good news for the fight against the pandemic!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119797041","repostId":"1147781211","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119792739,"gmtCreate":1622563052021,"gmtModify":1631885198814,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good advice","listText":"Good advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119792739","repostId":"2139589924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110526379,"gmtCreate":1622470646291,"gmtModify":1631885198860,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110526379","repostId":"2139453630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137281608,"gmtCreate":1622350468104,"gmtModify":1631885198863,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What is new?","listText":"What is new?","text":"What is new?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137281608","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137289733,"gmtCreate":1622350295622,"gmtModify":1631890523798,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Do something constructive!","listText":"Do something constructive!","text":"Do something constructive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137289733","repostId":"2138306488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137215956,"gmtCreate":1622349780375,"gmtModify":1631890523799,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Need to work for it&nbsp;","listText":"Need to work for it&nbsp;","text":"Need to work for it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137215956","repostId":"1188611521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134840419,"gmtCreate":1622217469331,"gmtModify":1631890523803,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be inclusive!","listText":"Be inclusive!","text":"Be inclusive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134840419","repostId":"2138488613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134854993,"gmtCreate":1622217331312,"gmtModify":1631890523805,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Never stops reinventing!","listText":"Never stops reinventing!","text":"Never stops reinventing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134854993","repostId":"2138610425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135329485,"gmtCreate":1622132937947,"gmtModify":1631890523807,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good to generate competition!","listText":"Good to generate competition!","text":"Good to generate competition!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135329485","repostId":"1121857498","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121857498","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622126802,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121857498?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 22:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121857498","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-","content":"<p><div> Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a ...</p><p><blockquote><div>空中客车公司（Airbus SE）表示，该公司正准备在两年内将其最畅销的 A320 系列喷气式飞机的产量提高到大流行前的水平，这给航空业带来了一股乐观情绪。</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Sets Plan to Boost Output, Igniting Aerospace Rally<blockquote>空客制定提高产量计划，引发航空航天反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a ...</p><p><blockquote><div>空中客车公司（Airbus SE）表示，该公司正准备在两年内将其最畅销的 A320 系列喷气式飞机的产量提高到大流行前的水平，这给航空业带来了一股乐观情绪。</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-plan-boost-output-143418797.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121857498","content_text":"Airbus SE said it’s preparing to gear up production of its best-selling A320-series jets beyond pre-pandemic levels within two years, sending a jolt of optimism into an aviation sector primed for a global recovery.Aerospace shares jumped in Europe and the U.S. after the world’s largest maker of commercial jetliners told suppliers to be ready to raise output of the narrow-body planes to a rate of 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023.That figure could rise to 70 a month early the following year, with 75 a possibility by 2025, Airbus said in a statement Thursday. Reaching that level would almost double its current, pandemic-depressed output.The ambitious plan stands out in an industry that’s still struggling to gain traction after Covid-19 wiped out demand for air travel. Despite short-term flareups in the pandemic, the longer-term picture has brightened with the global rollout of vaccines. Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have been showing more confidence as airlines ramp up schedules for shorter flights. Still, the industry faces its next challenge with pressure to lower carbon emissions.“We think it is premature, but Airbus is the one with a constant dialog with airline customers, and it has called things pretty well to date,” said Sandy Morris, an analyst with Jefferies. He said he’s concerned about further disruption from the pandemic and initiatives to cut emissions. “Nonetheless, Airbus will know all that too.”Airbus shares surged 10% to 107.50 euros in Paris for their biggest intraday gain since November. In Europe, engine and component supplier Safran SA rose 4.6%, while Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, which provides turbines for bigger planes, advanced 4.8%.Chicago-based Boeing was up 4.1% at 10:02 a.m. in New York, after the head of Southwest Airlines Co., a big 737 customer, told the Dallas Morning News the discount carrier could grow by “hundreds of planes.” Engine supplier General Electric Co. added 4%, while Raytheon Technologies Corp., which owns Pratt & Whitney, gained 1.8%.Web of SuppliersThe Airbus announcement will give makers of parts ranging from engines to seats and avionics time to invest and be ready when demand returns.Airbus’s comments are aimed partly at stress-testing its vast web of suppliers to ensure they can meet higher targets, while signaling to customers that it can comply with delivery requirements and won’t be open to order deferrals or cancellations, said Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa.Airbus and Boeing count on thousands of manufacturers who contribute to making commercial jetliners that can cost $100 million or more.“The message to our supplier community provides visibility to the entire industrial ecosystem to secure the necessary capabilities and be ready when market conditions call for it,” Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said in the statement.Near-Term JumpAirbus, based in Toulouse, France, has widened its lead in single-aisle planes over Boeing during the pandemic.With Thursday’s announcement, the company confirmed earlier plans to raise production to 43 A320-family planes per month in the third quarter of this year, reaching 45 in the fourth quarter. The figure stands at 40 per month now, a third lower than it was when the outbreak hit in early 2020.Airbus also plans to boost output of the smaller A220 to six per month from five in early 2022, with a 14 a month envisioned by the middle of the decade. Hitting that target will require significant further orders, Tusa said.Boeing has also made progress getting past a global grounding of its 737 Max, the chief rival to the A320. The U.S. planemaker reiterated late last month that it plans to gradually increase production of the single-aisle jet to 31 a month in early 2022.Wide-Body PlansLarger twin-aisle aircraft are expected to take longer to recover as long-distance travel lags behind the rebound in regional hops. Airbus said it will keep production of its A330 planes at two per month, while looking to lift A350 output to six per month from five in the second half of 2022. Both are powered by Rolls-Royce engines.In signaling to suppliers to prepare for the ramp-up, Airbus will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the reversal suffered after it announced an increase in production last October as coronavirus lockdowns were first lifted.When a new wave of infection emerged it slowed down its plans in January, retreating from goal of reaching 47 A320s a month by July.Faury will also want to be sure that both suppliers and Airbus’s own factories can cope with the stresses of record monthly rates. Airbus suffered delays in handovers prior to the pandemic as it struggled to comply with customization requests for the A321 version, prompting a cut to the 2019 delivery target.Earlier this month, Airbus said that it had restarted work converting a French assembly line once used for its A380 super-jumbo to build single-aisle jets. It should be operational by the end of 2022.Back in 2018, Airbus had been touting build rates of 70 or even 75 a month, but under Faury it reined in those ambitions. When the pandemic hit, the plan was to lift A320 series production to 63 a month, with Airbus looking at adding a further one or two to the total.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135386433,"gmtCreate":1622131386722,"gmtModify":1631890523812,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","listText":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","text":"Not everyone is as 'lucky'!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135386433","repostId":"2138517320","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136514175,"gmtCreate":1622027930197,"gmtModify":1631888654118,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Green","listText":"Green","text":"Green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136514175","repostId":"2138199591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138199591","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622022666,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2138199591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 17:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在疫情之后的销售额会大幅增长</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138199591","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade\nDiners heading back to restaurants will expand acc","content":"<p>Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade</p><p><blockquote>分析师升级后Beyond Meat股价飙升 10%</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b2f7a57915bc05128da8a8e8c2a794\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"880\"><span>Diners heading back to restaurants will expand access to Beyond Meat beyond the grocery store. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>返回餐馆的食客将把Beyond Meat的通道扩展到杂货店之外。法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat Inc. has been squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the vaccine rollout driving the return to restaurants, Bernstein analysts are upbeat about the plant-based meat company's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat公司受到了 COVID-19 大流行的挤压，但随着疫苗的推出推动餐馆回归，伯恩斯坦分析师对这家植物性肉类公司的前景持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein upgraded Beyond Meat <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a> to outperform from underperform in a note published Monday, calling the company \"a reopening play that stands toregain meaningful momentum over the coming quarters.\"</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦升级Beyond Meat<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(比恩德)$</a>在周一发布的一份报告中，该公司从表现不佳转为跑赢大盘，称该公司“重新开业，有望在未来几个季度获得有意义的势头”。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein has a $130 price target on Beyond Meat.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein 对Beyond Meat的目标价为 130 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the plant-based meat company soared 10% in Monday trading after the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>升级后，这家植物性肉类公司的股价在周一交易中飙升 10%。</blockquote></p><p> One consequence of increased dining at home has been a rise in competition at the grocery store. Impossible Foods, which has been expanding in the retail channel as well as in restaurants, has benefited.</p><p><blockquote>在家就餐增加的一个后果是杂货店的竞争加剧。一直在零售渠道和餐馆扩张的Impossible Foods从中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are reports that Impossible Foods is preparing for a $10 billion IPO .</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，Impossible Foods 正在准备 100 亿美元的 IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat has partnerships with McDonald's Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(MCD)$</a>, as well as a number of other big chains , along with its own expanding retail availability.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat与麦当劳公司有合作关系。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(麦当劳)$</a>以及许多其他大型连锁店，以及其自身不断扩大的零售供应。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drop off in foodservice sales had a very direct impact on the business domestically and internationally, and this in turn led to a marked acceleration in Impossible Foods' efforts to expand in retail channels,\" wrote Bernstein analysts led by Alexia Howard.</p><p><blockquote>亚历克西娅·霍华德 (Alexia Howard) 领导的伯恩斯坦分析师写道：“餐饮服务销售额的下降对国内外业务产生了非常直接的影响，这反过来又导致 Impossible Foods 扩张零售渠道的努力明显加速。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect foodservice channels to rebound as consumer mobility improves post the pandemic and this should also lead to decreased competition in the U.S. retail channel.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计，随着大流行后消费者流动性的改善，餐饮服务渠道将反弹，这也将导致美国零售渠道的竞争减少。”</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Bernstein highlights the international expansion that will come with a new Dutch facility and the aforementioned McDonald's deal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伯恩斯坦强调了新的荷兰工厂和前面提到的麦当劳交易将带来的国际扩张。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the growing access, Beyond Meat, and the plant-based alternatives category more broadly, is getting a boost from consumer trends that favor fewer animal proteins for health and environmental purposes.</p><p><blockquote>除了越来越多的可及性之外，Beyond Meat和更广泛的植物性替代品类别也受到了出于健康和环境目的而支持更少动物蛋白的消费者趋势的推动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Diets constantly evolve, and consumers are increasingly adhering to diets that limit animal products in some way,\" according to a report from Technomic, a data and analytics provider for the food-service industry.</p><p><blockquote>食品服务行业数据和分析提供商 Technomic 的一份报告称：“饮食在不断变化，消费者越来越多地坚持以某种方式限制动物产品的饮食。”</blockquote></p><p> The flexitarian diet allows for a variety of animal-based items, and therefore isn't as strict as vegetarianism or veganism.</p><p><blockquote>弹性素食主义饮食允许各种动物制品，因此不像素食主义或纯素食主义那样严格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The flexitarian diet has increased the most since 2018 and has the highest adherence, likely because it's the most accommodating and customizable,\" Technomic said.</p><p><blockquote>Technomic 表示：“自 2018 年以来，弹性素食饮食的增幅最大，并且依从性最高，这可能是因为它最通融、最可定制。”</blockquote></p><p> Even as diners head back out after a year of preparing most of their meals at home, Bernstein expects plant-based items to still populate plates.</p><p><blockquote>即使食客们在家里准备了一年的大部分饭菜后又回来了，伯恩斯坦预计植物性食物仍然会出现在盘子里。</blockquote></p><p> \"[W]hile meat alternatives as a category are clearly still being buoyed by the relative strength of food at home vs. food away from home and we would expect this to fade as reopening happens and foodservice channels open up, it certainly doesn't seem as though momentum for plant-based meats has evaporated during the pandemic,\" analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然肉类替代品作为一个类别显然仍受到在家食物与外出食物的相对实力的推动，而且我们预计随着重新开放和餐饮服务渠道的开放，这种情况会逐渐消失，但看起来肯定不像“植物性肉类的势头在大流行期间消失了，”分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat stock has fallen 4.3% for the year to date while the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index is up 11.5% for the period.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，Beyond Meat股市已下跌 4.3%，而基准标普500指数同期上涨 11.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在疫情之后的销售额会大幅增长</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Beyond Meat could see a big boost in sales beyond the pandemic<blockquote>为什么Beyond Meat在疫情之后的销售额会大幅增长</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 17:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade</p><p><blockquote>分析师升级后Beyond Meat股价飙升 10%</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b2f7a57915bc05128da8a8e8c2a794\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"880\"><span>Diners heading back to restaurants will expand access to Beyond Meat beyond the grocery store. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>返回餐馆的食客将把Beyond Meat的通道扩展到杂货店之外。法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat Inc. has been squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the vaccine rollout driving the return to restaurants, Bernstein analysts are upbeat about the plant-based meat company's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat公司受到了 COVID-19 大流行的挤压，但随着疫苗的推出推动餐馆回归，伯恩斯坦分析师对这家植物性肉类公司的前景持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein upgraded Beyond Meat <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a> to outperform from underperform in a note published Monday, calling the company \"a reopening play that stands toregain meaningful momentum over the coming quarters.\"</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦升级Beyond Meat<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(比恩德)$</a>在周一发布的一份报告中，该公司从表现不佳转为跑赢大盘，称该公司“重新开业，有望在未来几个季度获得有意义的势头”。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein has a $130 price target on Beyond Meat.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein 对Beyond Meat的目标价为 130 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the plant-based meat company soared 10% in Monday trading after the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>升级后，这家植物性肉类公司的股价在周一交易中飙升 10%。</blockquote></p><p> One consequence of increased dining at home has been a rise in competition at the grocery store. Impossible Foods, which has been expanding in the retail channel as well as in restaurants, has benefited.</p><p><blockquote>在家就餐增加的一个后果是杂货店的竞争加剧。一直在零售渠道和餐馆扩张的Impossible Foods从中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are reports that Impossible Foods is preparing for a $10 billion IPO .</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，Impossible Foods 正在准备 100 亿美元的 IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat has partnerships with McDonald's Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(MCD)$</a>, as well as a number of other big chains , along with its own expanding retail availability.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat与麦当劳公司有合作关系。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$(麦当劳)$</a>以及许多其他大型连锁店，以及其自身不断扩大的零售供应。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drop off in foodservice sales had a very direct impact on the business domestically and internationally, and this in turn led to a marked acceleration in Impossible Foods' efforts to expand in retail channels,\" wrote Bernstein analysts led by Alexia Howard.</p><p><blockquote>亚历克西娅·霍华德 (Alexia Howard) 领导的伯恩斯坦分析师写道：“餐饮服务销售额的下降对国内外业务产生了非常直接的影响，这反过来又导致 Impossible Foods 扩张零售渠道的努力明显加速。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect foodservice channels to rebound as consumer mobility improves post the pandemic and this should also lead to decreased competition in the U.S. retail channel.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计，随着大流行后消费者流动性的改善，餐饮服务渠道将反弹，这也将导致美国零售渠道的竞争减少。”</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Bernstein highlights the international expansion that will come with a new Dutch facility and the aforementioned McDonald's deal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伯恩斯坦强调了新的荷兰工厂和前面提到的麦当劳交易将带来的国际扩张。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the growing access, Beyond Meat, and the plant-based alternatives category more broadly, is getting a boost from consumer trends that favor fewer animal proteins for health and environmental purposes.</p><p><blockquote>除了越来越多的可及性之外，Beyond Meat和更广泛的植物性替代品类别也受到了出于健康和环境目的而支持更少动物蛋白的消费者趋势的推动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Diets constantly evolve, and consumers are increasingly adhering to diets that limit animal products in some way,\" according to a report from Technomic, a data and analytics provider for the food-service industry.</p><p><blockquote>食品服务行业数据和分析提供商 Technomic 的一份报告称：“饮食在不断变化，消费者越来越多地坚持以某种方式限制动物产品的饮食。”</blockquote></p><p> The flexitarian diet allows for a variety of animal-based items, and therefore isn't as strict as vegetarianism or veganism.</p><p><blockquote>弹性素食主义饮食允许各种动物制品，因此不像素食主义或纯素食主义那样严格。</blockquote></p><p> \"The flexitarian diet has increased the most since 2018 and has the highest adherence, likely because it's the most accommodating and customizable,\" Technomic said.</p><p><blockquote>Technomic 表示：“自 2018 年以来，弹性素食饮食的增幅最大，并且依从性最高，这可能是因为它最通融、最可定制。”</blockquote></p><p> Even as diners head back out after a year of preparing most of their meals at home, Bernstein expects plant-based items to still populate plates.</p><p><blockquote>即使食客们在家里准备了一年的大部分饭菜后又回来了，伯恩斯坦预计植物性食物仍然会出现在盘子里。</blockquote></p><p> \"[W]hile meat alternatives as a category are clearly still being buoyed by the relative strength of food at home vs. food away from home and we would expect this to fade as reopening happens and foodservice channels open up, it certainly doesn't seem as though momentum for plant-based meats has evaporated during the pandemic,\" analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然肉类替代品作为一个类别显然仍受到在家食物与外出食物的相对实力的推动，而且我们预计随着重新开放和餐饮服务渠道的开放，这种情况会逐渐消失，但看起来肯定不像“植物性肉类的势头在大流行期间消失了，”分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond Meat stock has fallen 4.3% for the year to date while the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index is up 11.5% for the period.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，Beyond Meat股市已下跌 4.3%，而基准标普500指数同期上涨 11.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/restaurant-resurgence-will-put-beyond-meat-back-on-track-analyst-says-11621887221?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/restaurant-resurgence-will-put-beyond-meat-back-on-track-analyst-says-11621887221?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138199591","content_text":"Beyond Meat stock soars 10% after analyst upgrade\nDiners heading back to restaurants will expand access to Beyond Meat beyond the grocery store. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nBeyond Meat Inc. has been squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the vaccine rollout driving the return to restaurants, Bernstein analysts are upbeat about the plant-based meat company's prospects.\nBernstein upgraded Beyond Meat $(BYND)$ to outperform from underperform in a note published Monday, calling the company \"a reopening play that stands toregain meaningful momentum over the coming quarters.\"\nBernstein has a $130 price target on Beyond Meat.\nShares of the plant-based meat company soared 10% in Monday trading after the upgrade.\nOne consequence of increased dining at home has been a rise in competition at the grocery store. Impossible Foods, which has been expanding in the retail channel as well as in restaurants, has benefited.\nThere are reports that Impossible Foods is preparing for a $10 billion IPO .\nBeyond Meat has partnerships with McDonald's Corp. $(MCD)$, as well as a number of other big chains , along with its own expanding retail availability.\n\"The drop off in foodservice sales had a very direct impact on the business domestically and internationally, and this in turn led to a marked acceleration in Impossible Foods' efforts to expand in retail channels,\" wrote Bernstein analysts led by Alexia Howard.\n\"We expect foodservice channels to rebound as consumer mobility improves post the pandemic and this should also lead to decreased competition in the U.S. retail channel.\"\nMoreover, Bernstein highlights the international expansion that will come with a new Dutch facility and the aforementioned McDonald's deal.\nIn addition to the growing access, Beyond Meat, and the plant-based alternatives category more broadly, is getting a boost from consumer trends that favor fewer animal proteins for health and environmental purposes.\n\"Diets constantly evolve, and consumers are increasingly adhering to diets that limit animal products in some way,\" according to a report from Technomic, a data and analytics provider for the food-service industry.\nThe flexitarian diet allows for a variety of animal-based items, and therefore isn't as strict as vegetarianism or veganism.\n\"The flexitarian diet has increased the most since 2018 and has the highest adherence, likely because it's the most accommodating and customizable,\" Technomic said.\nEven as diners head back out after a year of preparing most of their meals at home, Bernstein expects plant-based items to still populate plates.\n\"[W]hile meat alternatives as a category are clearly still being buoyed by the relative strength of food at home vs. food away from home and we would expect this to fade as reopening happens and foodservice channels open up, it certainly doesn't seem as though momentum for plant-based meats has evaporated during the pandemic,\" analysts said.\nBeyond Meat stock has fallen 4.3% for the year to date while the benchmark S&P 500 index is up 11.5% for the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136515934,"gmtCreate":1622027843828,"gmtModify":1631890523820,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583642893131936","idStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good infor","listText":"Good infor","text":"Good infor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136515934","repostId":"1142524290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":110526379,"gmtCreate":1622470646291,"gmtModify":1631885198860,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110526379","repostId":"2139453630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119792739,"gmtCreate":1622563052021,"gmtModify":1631885198814,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good advice","listText":"Good advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119792739","repostId":"2139589924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137215956,"gmtCreate":1622349780375,"gmtModify":1631890523799,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Need to work for it&nbsp;","listText":"Need to work for it&nbsp;","text":"Need to work for it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137215956","repostId":"1188611521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692804576,"gmtCreate":1640907362317,"gmtModify":1640907362430,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Get both!","listText":"Get both!","text":"Get both!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692804576","repostId":"1139674064","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139674064","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640878484,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139674064?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139674064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and gre","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使他们能够要求高平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从生产斜坡的角度来看要远得多，我相信它是今天更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉 (TSLA) 之外，还有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将 Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) 和蔚来（蔚来）进行比较——这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并研究两家公司的个别风险。总的来说，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两者中更具吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的 Lucid 和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于 600 万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，世界各地销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机车辆。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK:BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY），这取决于人们如何计算插电式混合动力车。蔚来和 Lucid Group, Inc. 目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约 11,000 辆汽车，这意味着年销量约为 130,000 辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能超过 130,000 辆，因为交付量应该会继续环比攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid 目前规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已经售出了几百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group 的目标是交付约 20,000 辆汽车，比 2021 年增加了很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID 与蔚来过去季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来汽车过去三个月的销售业绩远远强于 Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为 LCID 刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，就股价而言，Lucid 的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID 上涨了近 50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近 20%。就蔚来汽车而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而 LCID 则从 Rivian (RIVN) 的巨大成功 IPO 带来的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者关注 Lucid 的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来如今的价值要好得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>股价交易价格不到共识目标价的一半，这意味着明年有 100% 以上的上涨空间，而 LCID 的交易价格几乎完全符合当前共识目标价，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来汽车上一季度的表现不佳似乎为该公司在当前水平上的强劲表现奠定了良好的基础，而 Lucid 则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解一下这两家公司的技术，以及它们的品牌，以及它们具体的主要风险。蔚来和 Lucid 都活跃于电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉平均水平。蔚来汽车的平均售价约为 70,000 美元，而 Lucid 的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司正在销售最昂贵的 Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。目前的电动汽车领导者特斯拉的平均售价约为 50,000 美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司如何能够要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来汽车的电池更换技术可以让客户在几分钟内完全“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid 不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的 900V 技术可以实现巨大的续航里程和快速的充电速度 - Lucid 的架构允许客户在短短 20 分钟内充电长达 300 英里的能量。作为参考，特斯拉 S 采用约 400V 架构，允许客户在 15 分钟内充电 200 英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和 Lucid 的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也极具竞争力。Lucid Air Dream 的 EPA 续航里程为 520 英里，几乎可以满足所有用例。与 Lucid 相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们查看其高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来 ET7 配备 150kWh 电池（也有更小的选项），续航里程可达 1,000 公里，相当于约 620 英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和 Lucid 的表现都很好——旗舰 S Plaid 的 EPA 续航里程为 350 英里。凭借其在开发和供应电动赛车赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid 打造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid 演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可降低资源使用率并减轻车辆重量。这反过来又会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控性和驾驶性能。Lucid 迄今为止还不是当今最大的电动汽车制造商，但其工程师已经开发了一些目前活跃的电动汽车制造商中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常重视最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7 为此使用以下传感单元：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来拥有 33 个传感器，使用高达 8MP，其传感能力轻松超越特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉 Model 3 已准备好实现全自动驾驶，但仅使用 8 个摄像头，每个摄像头为 120 万像素。因此，蔚来 ET7 中的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于 M3 中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中额外使用了 32 个传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是卓越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术融入其车辆方面并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7 使用四个 NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoC，每个 SoC 每秒可提供略高于 250 万亿次的操作，这使得综合计算能力超过 1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车辆中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还提供了自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。需要注意的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，将未来软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中应该不是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid 的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个车载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，M3的传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3是L5就绪）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅仅强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，就像设计、制造质量等一样。也必须考虑。幸运的是，蔚来和 Lucid 在此基础上竞争得非常好，尽管由于销售数字较低，Lucid 的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过 Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost 报道称，J.D。Power 将蔚来评为中国质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid 尚未在该国活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和 Lucid 看起来都很强大，蔚来更注重电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而 Lucid 则更注重发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有各自的优势，但我个人认为蔚来将从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为不会有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid 开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中应该会非常有用。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会对蔚来构成巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车制造商将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车制造商，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都打折，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Lucid 来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并非易事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid 的情况也是如此，该公司必须在未来几个月和几个季度内高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID 的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的 30 倍，而且根本无法保证这些收入真的会产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 还是蔚来股票更好买？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 都拥有有吸引力的产品，在越来越多的进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎具有高度竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当一个人以过高的价格购买时，估值可能是一个主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来汽车而言，这似乎并不是一个太大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值，股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的 4 倍，与 LCID、RIVN、TSLA 相比明显折扣等等。另一方面，Lucid 的估值非常高，是明年销售额的 30 倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两者中更好的选择。最近的股价下跌对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid 与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场竞争日益激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使他们能够要求高平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从生产斜坡的角度来看要远得多，我相信它是今天更好的选择。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉 (TSLA) 之外，还有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将 Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) 和蔚来（蔚来）进行比较——这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并研究两家公司的个别风险。总的来说，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两者中更具吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>电动汽车市场的 Lucid 和蔚来</b></blockquote></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于 600 万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，世界各地销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机车辆。</blockquote></p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK:BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK:VWAGY），这取决于人们如何计算插电式混合动力车。蔚来和 Lucid Group, Inc. 目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约 11,000 辆汽车，这意味着年销量约为 130,000 辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能超过 130,000 辆，因为交付量应该会继续环比攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid 目前规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已经售出了几百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group 的目标是交付约 20,000 辆汽车，比 2021 年增加了很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote></p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>LCID 与蔚来过去季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，蔚来汽车过去三个月的销售业绩远远强于 Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为 LCID 刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，就股价而言，Lucid 的表现更好：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，LCID 上涨了近 50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近 20%。就蔚来汽车而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而 LCID 则从 Rivian (RIVN) 的巨大成功 IPO 带来的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者关注 Lucid 的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来如今的价值要好得多：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>股价交易价格不到共识目标价的一半，这意味着明年有 100% 以上的上涨空间，而 LCID 的交易价格几乎完全符合当前共识目标价，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来汽车上一季度的表现不佳似乎为该公司在当前水平上的强劲表现奠定了良好的基础，而 Lucid 则不然。</blockquote></p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 与蔚来关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p><blockquote>让我们更深入地了解一下这两家公司的技术，以及它们的品牌，以及它们具体的主要风险。蔚来和 Lucid 都活跃于电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉平均水平。蔚来汽车的平均售价约为 70,000 美元，而 Lucid 的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司正在销售最昂贵的 Air<i>梦想</i>版本优先。目前的电动汽车领导者特斯拉的平均售价约为 50,000 美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司如何能够要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p><blockquote>例如，蔚来汽车的电池更换技术可以让客户在几分钟内完全“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid 不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的 900V 技术可以实现巨大的续航里程和快速的充电速度 - Lucid 的架构允许客户在短短 20 分钟内充电长达 300 英里的能量。作为参考，特斯拉 S 采用约 400V 架构，允许客户在 15 分钟内充电 200 英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和 Lucid 的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也极具竞争力。Lucid Air Dream 的 EPA 续航里程为 520 英里，几乎可以满足所有用例。与 Lucid 相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们查看其高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来 ET7 配备 150kWh 电池（也有更小的选项），续航里程可达 1,000 公里，相当于约 620 英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和 Lucid 的表现都很好——旗舰 S Plaid 的 EPA 续航里程为 350 英里。凭借其在开发和供应电动赛车赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid 打造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid 演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可降低资源使用率并减轻车辆重量。这反过来又会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控性和驾驶性能。Lucid 迄今为止还不是当今最大的电动汽车制造商，但其工程师已经开发了一些目前活跃的电动汽车制造商中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来非常重视最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7 为此使用以下传感单元：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来拥有 33 个传感器，使用高达 8MP，其传感能力轻松超越特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉 Model 3 已准备好实现全自动驾驶，但仅使用 8 个摄像头，每个摄像头为 120 万像素。因此，蔚来 ET7 中的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于 M3 中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中额外使用了 32 个传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是卓越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术融入其车辆方面并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7 使用四个 NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoC，每个 SoC 每秒可提供略高于 250 万亿次的操作，这使得综合计算能力超过 1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车辆中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还提供了自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。需要注意的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，将未来软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中应该不是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid 的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个车载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，M3的传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3是L5就绪）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅仅强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，就像设计、制造质量等一样。也必须考虑。幸运的是，蔚来和 Lucid 在此基础上竞争得非常好，尽管由于销售数字较低，Lucid 的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过 Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost 报道称，J.D。Power 将蔚来评为中国质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid 尚未在该国活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和 Lucid 看起来都很强大，蔚来更注重电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而 Lucid 则更注重发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有各自的优势，但我个人认为蔚来将从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为不会有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid 开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中应该会非常有用。</blockquote></p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会对蔚来构成巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车制造商将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车制造商，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都打折，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Lucid 来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并非易事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid 的情况也是如此，该公司必须在未来几个月和几个季度内高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID 的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的 30 倍，而且根本无法保证这些收入真的会产生。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 还是蔚来股票更好买？</b></blockquote></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来和 Lucid 都拥有有吸引力的产品，在越来越多的进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎具有高度竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当一个人以过高的价格购买时，估值可能是一个主要障碍。</blockquote></p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p><blockquote>就蔚来汽车而言，这似乎并不是一个太大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值，股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的 4 倍，与 LCID、RIVN、TSLA 相比明显折扣等等。另一方面，Lucid 的估值非常高，是明年销售额的 30 倍。</blockquote></p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p><p><blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两者中更好的选择。最近的股价下跌对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139674064","content_text":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisThe EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we'll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we'll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.Lucid And NIO In The EV MarketThe global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.LCID Vs. NIO's Past Quarterly PerformanceAs noted above, NIO's sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:Data by YChartsOver the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO's case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian's (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid's stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:Data by YChartsShares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO's underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can't be said about Lucid.Lucid Vs. NIO Key MetricsLet's take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO's ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid's ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.NIO's battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully \"recharge\" in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn't employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid's architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO's solution, as well as Lucid's solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.NIO's and Lucid's tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:Source: Lucid presentationA smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:Source: NIOWith 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO's sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO's sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO's offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO's self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn't be a very difficult task. Lucid's self-driving tech, even though it doesn't get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO's Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).Strong tech alone doesn't make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles' quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid's ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.For Lucid, regulation doesn't seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as \"Production Hell\". The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It's not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID's high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year's expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.In NIO's case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year's expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year's sales.I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156070695,"gmtCreate":1625188305617,"gmtModify":1631885198740,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is good!","listText":"This is good!","text":"This is good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156070695","repostId":"1115716000","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158615486,"gmtCreate":1625147610945,"gmtModify":1631885198751,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158615486","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":603339931,"gmtCreate":1638363796191,"gmtModify":1638363796274,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good move","listText":"Good move","text":"Good move","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603339931","repostId":"1149327708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137289733,"gmtCreate":1622350295622,"gmtModify":1631890523798,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Do something constructive!","listText":"Do something constructive!","text":"Do something constructive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137289733","repostId":"2138306488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134840419,"gmtCreate":1622217469331,"gmtModify":1631890523803,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be inclusive!","listText":"Be inclusive!","text":"Be inclusive!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134840419","repostId":"2138488613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171363206,"gmtCreate":1626706795005,"gmtModify":1631885198727,"author":{"id":"3583642893131936","authorId":"3583642893131936","name":"JacAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c3c12f3fed588550c7a4647eff7a71","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583642893131936","authorIdStr":"3583642893131936"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"New Normal- New Cycle[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171363206","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}