ThECROW的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ThECROW

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

5关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-07-24

👌

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-17

[比心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-22

👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-01

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

EV is the mode of transport in the future

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-09-25

[弱]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-11

Apple should have been a bigger man.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-29

Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.

Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-21

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583650394724849","uuid":"3583650394724849","gmtCreate":1620556989461,"gmtModify":1620556989461,"name":"ThECROW","pinyin":"thecrow","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":5,"tweetSize":29,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.06.07","exceedPercentage":"60.00%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":602353548,"gmtCreate":1638975184263,"gmtModify":1638975184263,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy Confluent[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Buy Confluent[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Buy Confluent[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602353548","repostId":"1175631540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175631540","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638971326,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175631540?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent 宣布拟议发行 10 亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175631540","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of","content":"<p>Confluent&nbsp;stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;7.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 宣布拟议发行 10 亿美元可转换优先票据后，股价在盘前交易中下跌 7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d476c7b993aae8544efebc2be2798615\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Confluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT)</b>,the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.</p><p><blockquote><b>Confluent, Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：CFLT）</b>platform for data in motion 今天宣布，根据市场条件和其他因素，拟通过私募（“发行”）向有合理理由被认为是合格机构买家的人士提供 10 亿美元的 2027 年到期的可转换优先票据（“票据”）。 1933 年证券法（经修订）（“证券法”）第 144A 条。Confluent 还打算授予票据的初始购买者在票据首次发行之日起 13 天内购买最多额外 1 亿美元票据本金总额的选择权。</blockquote></p><p> The Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.</p><p><blockquote>票据将为Confluent的一般无抵押债务，并将每半年产生逾期应付利息。由 Confluent 选择，这些票据可转换为现金、Confluent A 类普通股或现金与 Confluent A 类普通股的组合。票据的利率、初始兑换率和其他条款将在发行定价时确定。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 预计将使用此次发行的部分净收益来支付下述上限看涨期权交易的成本。Confluent 预计将剩余净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。Confluent 还可能将部分净收益用于收购互补业务、产品、服务或技术或进行战略投资。如果初始购买者行使购买额外票据的选择权，Confluent 预计将使用出售额外票据所得款项净额的一部分与期权交易对手（定义见下文）进行额外的上限看涨期权交易，剩余所得款项净额用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途，以及用于收购互补业务、产品、服务或技术或对其进行战略投资。然而，Confluent 目前并无任何协议或承诺订立任何重大收购或投资。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.</p><p><blockquote>就票据定价而言，Confluent预期将与一名或多名初始购买者或其联属公司及╱或其他金融机构（「期权交易对手方」）订立上限看涨期权交易。有上限的看涨期权交易将涵盖最初作为票据基础的 Confluent A 类普通股的股份数量，但需进行惯例调整。一般预期有上限的看涨期权交易将在任何票据转换时减少Confluent A类普通股的潜在摊薄，及╱或抵销Confluent须支付的任何超过已转换票据本金金额的现金支付（视情况而定），有关减少及╱或抵销须有上限。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.</p><p><blockquote>在建立上限看涨期权交易的初始对冲时，Confluent 预计期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司将在票据定价的同时或之后不久就 Confluent A 类普通股进行各种衍生品交易和/或购买 Confluent A 类普通股的股份，包括与票据中的某些投资者（视情况而定）进行交易。这一活动可能会增加（或减少任何跌幅）Confluent A 类普通股的市场价格或当时票据的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，期权交易对手方或其各自的关联公司可在票据定价后和票据到期前的二级市场交易中，通过买入或平仓与 Confluent A 类普通股相关的各种衍生工具和/或买入或卖出 Confluent A 类普通股或 Confluent 的其他证券来修改其对冲头寸（并可能在票据到期前第 41 个预定交易日开始的 40 个交易日期间内这样做，或在 Confluent 根据上限看涨期权交易行使相关选择的情况下，在票据回购、赎回或转换后）。该活动还可能导致或避免 Confluent A 类普通股或票据的市场价格上涨或下跌，从而影响票据持有人转换票据的能力，如果该活动发生在与票据转换相关的任何观察期内，则可能影响票据持有人在转换票据时将获得的股份数量（如有）和对价价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.</p><p><blockquote>票据以及票据转换后可能发行的 Confluent A 类普通股的任何股份尚未也不会根据《证券法》、任何州证券法或任何其他司法管辖区的证券法进行登记，除非进行了登记，否则不得在没有登记或适用豁免的情况下，或在不受《证券法》和其他适用证券法的登记要求约束的交易中发售或出售。</blockquote></p><p> This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿既不是出售要约，也不是购买任何这些证券的要约邀约，也不是在任何州或司法管辖区出售这些证券，在根据任何此类州或司法管辖区的证券法进行注册或合格之前，此类要约、邀约或出售都是非法的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent 宣布拟议发行 10 亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent 宣布拟议发行 10 亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confluent&nbsp;stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;7.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 宣布拟议发行 10 亿美元可转换优先票据后，股价在盘前交易中下跌 7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d476c7b993aae8544efebc2be2798615\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Confluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT)</b>,the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.</p><p><blockquote><b>Confluent, Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：CFLT）</b>platform for data in motion 今天宣布，根据市场条件和其他因素，拟通过私募（“发行”）向有合理理由被认为是合格机构买家的人士提供 10 亿美元的 2027 年到期的可转换优先票据（“票据”）。 1933 年证券法（经修订）（“证券法”）第 144A 条。Confluent 还打算授予票据的初始购买者在票据首次发行之日起 13 天内购买最多额外 1 亿美元票据本金总额的选择权。</blockquote></p><p> The Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.</p><p><blockquote>票据将为Confluent的一般无抵押债务，并将每半年产生逾期应付利息。由 Confluent 选择，这些票据可转换为现金、Confluent A 类普通股或现金与 Confluent A 类普通股的组合。票据的利率、初始兑换率和其他条款将在发行定价时确定。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 预计将使用此次发行的部分净收益来支付下述上限看涨期权交易的成本。Confluent 预计将剩余净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。Confluent 还可能将部分净收益用于收购互补业务、产品、服务或技术或进行战略投资。如果初始购买者行使购买额外票据的选择权，Confluent 预计将使用出售额外票据所得款项净额的一部分与期权交易对手（定义见下文）进行额外的上限看涨期权交易，剩余所得款项净额用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途，以及用于收购互补业务、产品、服务或技术或对其进行战略投资。然而，Confluent 目前并无任何协议或承诺订立任何重大收购或投资。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.</p><p><blockquote>就票据定价而言，Confluent预期将与一名或多名初始购买者或其联属公司及╱或其他金融机构（「期权交易对手方」）订立上限看涨期权交易。有上限的看涨期权交易将涵盖最初作为票据基础的 Confluent A 类普通股的股份数量，但需进行惯例调整。一般预期有上限的看涨期权交易将在任何票据转换时减少Confluent A类普通股的潜在摊薄，及╱或抵销Confluent须支付的任何超过已转换票据本金金额的现金支付（视情况而定），有关减少及╱或抵销须有上限。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.</p><p><blockquote>在建立上限看涨期权交易的初始对冲时，Confluent 预计期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司将在票据定价的同时或之后不久就 Confluent A 类普通股进行各种衍生品交易和/或购买 Confluent A 类普通股的股份，包括与票据中的某些投资者（视情况而定）进行交易。这一活动可能会增加（或减少任何跌幅）Confluent A 类普通股的市场价格或当时票据的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，期权交易对手方或其各自的关联公司可在票据定价后和票据到期前的二级市场交易中，通过买入或平仓与 Confluent A 类普通股相关的各种衍生工具和/或买入或卖出 Confluent A 类普通股或 Confluent 的其他证券来修改其对冲头寸（并可能在票据到期前第 41 个预定交易日开始的 40 个交易日期间内这样做，或在 Confluent 根据上限看涨期权交易行使相关选择的情况下，在票据回购、赎回或转换后）。该活动还可能导致或避免 Confluent A 类普通股或票据的市场价格上涨或下跌，从而影响票据持有人转换票据的能力，如果该活动发生在与票据转换相关的任何观察期内，则可能影响票据持有人在转换票据时将获得的股份数量（如有）和对价价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.</p><p><blockquote>票据以及票据转换后可能发行的 Confluent A 类普通股的任何股份尚未也不会根据《证券法》、任何州证券法或任何其他司法管辖区的证券法进行登记，除非进行了登记，否则不得在没有登记或适用豁免的情况下，或在不受《证券法》和其他适用证券法的登记要求约束的交易中发售或出售。</blockquote></p><p> This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿既不是出售要约，也不是购买任何这些证券的要约邀约，也不是在任何州或司法管辖区出售这些证券，在根据任何此类州或司法管辖区的证券法进行注册或合格之前，此类要约、邀约或出售都是非法的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175631540","content_text":"Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.\n\nConfluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT),the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.\nThe Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.\nConfluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.\nIn connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.\nIn connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.\nIn addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.\nThe Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.\nThis press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842976372,"gmtCreate":1636128687399,"gmtModify":1636128687563,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Way to go[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Way to go[强]&nbsp;","text":"Way to go[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842976372","repostId":"1173116654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173116654","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636120291,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1173116654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 21:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluent 股票早盘交易中飙升 14%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173116654","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.\n\nConflue","content":"<p>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩超出预期后，Confluent 股票在早盘交易中飙升 14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491afb60ce801feec7c28a82a51a62a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Confluent&nbsp;reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 公布季度亏损为每股 (0.17) 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 (0.23) 美元高出 26.09%。该公司公布季度销售额为 1.0257 亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的 9066 万美元高出 13.14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluent 股票早盘交易中飙升 14%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluent 股票早盘交易中飙升 14%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩超出预期后，Confluent 股票在早盘交易中飙升 14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491afb60ce801feec7c28a82a51a62a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Confluent&nbsp;reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.</p><p><blockquote>Confluent 公布季度亏损为每股 (0.17) 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 (0.23) 美元高出 26.09%。该公司公布季度销售额为 1.0257 亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的 9066 万美元高出 13.14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173116654","content_text":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.\n\nConfluent reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857813129,"gmtCreate":1635517309750,"gmtModify":1635517313183,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857813129","repostId":"1147983155","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147983155","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635484615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147983155?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 13:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>这一指标预示着股市即将面临麻烦</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147983155","media":"Barrons","summary":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for st","content":"<p>The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场对经济增长表现出一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌的水域：潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.</p><p><blockquote>收益率曲线最近趋于平缓。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，这表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心经济需求可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求推动的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因收到的债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓速度超出了许多人的预期。经季节性调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家的一致看涨期权是增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”</p><p><blockquote>“公民银行（Citizens Banks）全球市场主管托尼-贝迪基安（Tony Bedikian）说：”显然，曲线变平的趋势非常显著。“这主要是由于过去几周美联储加息预期飙升所致。”</blockquote></p><p> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债券市场的信号。标普500的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨不到 1%，而截至一周前收盘，该指数较 10 月 4 日（近期暴跌的最低点）的水平上涨了不到 6%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.</p><p><blockquote>如果收益率曲线持平一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景恶化更加有信心。</blockquote></p><p> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.</p><p><blockquote>“贝迪基安说：”如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍然非常平坦，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将引起一些人的关注。</blockquote></p><p> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.</p><p><blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将会扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于 2%，随着时间的推移，10 年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近 2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote></p><p> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.</p><p><blockquote>更陡峭的收益率曲线对股票来说是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;(ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the&nbsp;Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF&nbsp;(XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股票下跌。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于 2%，工业精选行业 SPDR ETF (XLI) 下跌约 0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.</p><p><blockquote>“摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科-科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）在最近的一份研究报告中说：”淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>这一指标预示着股市即将面临麻烦</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>这一指标预示着股市即将面临麻烦</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-29 13:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场对经济增长表现出一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌的水域：潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.</p><p><blockquote>收益率曲线最近趋于平缓。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，这表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心经济需求可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求推动的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因收到的债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓速度超出了许多人的预期。经季节性调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家的一致看涨期权是增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”</p><p><blockquote>“公民银行（Citizens Banks）全球市场主管托尼-贝迪基安（Tony Bedikian）说：”显然，曲线变平的趋势非常显著。“这主要是由于过去几周美联储加息预期飙升所致。”</blockquote></p><p> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债券市场的信号。标普500的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨不到 1%，而截至一周前收盘，该指数较 10 月 4 日（近期暴跌的最低点）的水平上涨了不到 6%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.</p><p><blockquote>如果收益率曲线持平一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景恶化更加有信心。</blockquote></p><p> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.</p><p><blockquote>“贝迪基安说：”如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍然非常平坦，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将引起一些人的关注。</blockquote></p><p> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.</p><p><blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将会扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于 2%，随着时间的推移，10 年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近 2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote></p><p> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.</p><p><blockquote>更陡峭的收益率曲线对股票来说是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;(ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the&nbsp;Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF&nbsp;(XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股票下跌。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于 2%，工业精选行业 SPDR ETF (XLI) 下跌约 0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.</p><p><blockquote>“摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科-科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）在最近的一份研究报告中说：”淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147983155","content_text":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.\nThe yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.\nThe 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.\nFigures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.\n“Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”\nThe difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.\nThe stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the S&P 500 have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.\nThe slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.\n“If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.\nThat isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.\nA steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.\nShares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.\n“Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862569073,"gmtCreate":1632891004819,"gmtModify":1632891004951,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","listText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","text":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862569073","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861276555,"gmtCreate":1632507088777,"gmtModify":1632714651506,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861276555","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863709699,"gmtCreate":1632429736111,"gmtModify":1632728706661,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQIX\">$Equinix(EQIX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093922341007940\">@venseliau</a>[强]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQIX\">$Equinix(EQIX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093922341007940\">@venseliau</a>[强]&nbsp;","text":"$Equinix(EQIX)$@venseliau[强]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/204725148501739d3bbb96fb96c1762a","width":"720","height":"1593"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863709699","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869309893,"gmtCreate":1632239920112,"gmtModify":1632801821693,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869309893","repostId":"1178869256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888631008,"gmtCreate":1631492390704,"gmtModify":1631889101743,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888631008","repostId":"2167305804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881114722,"gmtCreate":1631316850766,"gmtModify":1631883964302,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","listText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","text":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881114722","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881355307,"gmtCreate":1631305717409,"gmtModify":1631889101748,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881355307","repostId":"1148605188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148605188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631265518,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148605188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021 年 9 月比特币车祸：您应该知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148605188","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将是比特币，桶店将是桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩盘、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你是加密货币，你需要两种处理崩溃的策略。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，在我写这篇文章的时候，它又开始暴跌了。作为一个空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但这对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔 10 万美元的多头来说是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为一个巨大的品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场就是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场喜欢赌徒，并确保他们以尽可能有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的……来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温-勒菲弗尔（Edwin Lefevre）于 1923 年撰写了一本名为《股票操作员回忆录》的经典交易书籍，讲述了著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西-利弗莫尔（Jesse Livermore）的故事。当时的 “桶店 ”骗局和 1890-1930 年前后的总体交易环境至今基本没有变化（.但是，但是，想想我们现在的所有监管.）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易员，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，就像交易员注定要做的那样——由他们的交易对手和数学决定。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是 “桶式商店 ”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转入他们的账户余额的一个例子。在加密货币、股票等领域，隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、 “拉高和转储 ”等金融骗局仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______中的疯狂坠机是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>按你认为合适的方式填空：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>市场会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在对方平台上持有止损。</li><li>没有正当理由不要持有头寸。</li><li>如果您被困在车祸后，请做好坚守阵地的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>车祸正在发生，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次坠机事件。这是不可避免的。一个60,000美元的BTC是两个30,000美元的BTC。</li><li>买入车祸，但要在车祸发生后很久，尘埃落定。这是对投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商不会在最重要的时候将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃时没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指沉闷资产下跌 25%，但加密货币等任何辛辣资产下跌 50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一步呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>这是图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是一只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国社会打压推动的，中国社会打压比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的威权噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是非常强大的，对许多人来说不是好的，但对加密来说，它可能会非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果没有这一顺风或其他地缘政治因素，我预计比特币股价将跌破 2 万美元，但市场并不听我的。就像每一个看涨期权一样，你必须根据发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所示的牛市和熊市趋势。正如我所预期的那样，我徘徊在熊市趋势上，比特币就像变魔术一样，完全沿着牛市趋势上涨。投机就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>因此，上述趋势将会发展，我仍然看空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，那你就不知道，那就停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体而言：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您是 Hodl 爱好者，请继续使用美元成本平均值。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果你不知道该怎么办，需要询问，那就卖掉你的菲亚特，把它存起来，等你确定自己的头寸后再买。</li><li>如果你想逢低买入，一定要持有，因为你可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一举动可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，要反对极端的举动，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会窒息，并且能够在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你和我一样，正在寻找一个重返赛场的机会，那么现在还不是时候。</li><li>如果您是 tyro 交易者，请仔细研究其中的每一个细节。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者杀戮的地方，因为这是新手失去衬衫的地方。</li></ol><b>我在干什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“囤积 ”我仅有的一点 “不稳定的硬币 ”。我正在关注当这一举措投降时看起来会有什么巨大的价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，那么在一切结束之后，一两周后，我将从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又降了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又涨了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将是比特币，加密将永远崩溃和月亮，这是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币会走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021 年 9 月比特币车祸：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021 年 9 月比特币车祸：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将是比特币，桶店将是桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩盘、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你是加密货币，你需要两种处理崩溃的策略。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，在我写这篇文章的时候，它又开始暴跌了。作为一个空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但这对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔 10 万美元的多头来说是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为一个巨大的品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场就是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场喜欢赌徒，并确保他们以尽可能有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的……来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温-勒菲弗尔（Edwin Lefevre）于 1923 年撰写了一本名为《股票操作员回忆录》的经典交易书籍，讲述了著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西-利弗莫尔（Jesse Livermore）的故事。当时的 “桶店 ”骗局和 1890-1930 年前后的总体交易环境至今基本没有变化（.但是，但是，想想我们现在的所有监管.）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易员，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，就像交易员注定要做的那样——由他们的交易对手和数学决定。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是 “桶式商店 ”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转入他们的账户余额的一个例子。在加密货币、股票等领域，隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、 “拉高和转储 ”等金融骗局仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______中的疯狂坠机是意料之中的，甚至可能是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>按你认为合适的方式填空：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>市场会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在对方平台上持有止损。</li><li>没有正当理由不要持有头寸。</li><li>如果您被困在车祸后，请做好坚守阵地的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>车祸正在发生，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次坠机事件。这是不可避免的。一个60,000美元的BTC是两个30,000美元的BTC。</li><li>买入车祸，但要在车祸发生后很久，尘埃落定。这是对投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商不会在最重要的时候将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃时没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指沉闷资产下跌 25%，但加密货币等任何辛辣资产下跌 50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌 90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一步呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>这是图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是一只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国社会打压推动的，中国社会打压比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的威权噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是非常强大的，对许多人来说不是好的，但对加密来说，它可能会非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果没有这一顺风或其他地缘政治因素，我预计比特币股价将跌破 2 万美元，但市场并不听我的。就像每一个看涨期权一样，你必须根据发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所示的牛市和熊市趋势。正如我所预期的那样，我徘徊在熊市趋势上，比特币就像变魔术一样，完全沿着牛市趋势上涨。投机就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>因此，上述趋势将会发展，我仍然看空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，那你就不知道，那就停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体而言：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您是 Hodl 爱好者，请继续使用美元成本平均值。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果你不知道该怎么办，需要询问，那就卖掉你的菲亚特，把它存起来，等你确定自己的头寸后再买。</li><li>如果你想逢低买入，一定要持有，因为你可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一举动可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，要反对极端的举动，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会窒息，并且能够在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你和我一样，正在寻找一个重返赛场的机会，那么现在还不是时候。</li><li>如果您是 tyro 交易者，请仔细研究其中的每一个细节。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者杀戮的地方，因为这是新手失去衬衫的地方。</li></ol><b>我在干什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“囤积 ”我仅有的一点 “不稳定的硬币 ”。我正在关注当这一举措投降时看起来会有什么巨大的价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，那么在一切结束之后，一两周后，我将从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又降了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又涨了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将是比特币，加密将永远崩溃和月亮，这是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币会走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01499":"欧科云链","01611":"新火集团","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01499":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"01611":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883465025,"gmtCreate":1631263955667,"gmtModify":1631889101756,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[握手]&nbsp;[鼓掌]&nbsp;","listText":"[握手]&nbsp;[鼓掌]&nbsp;","text":"[握手] [鼓掌]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883465025","repostId":"1108076835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108076835","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631260909,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108076835?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UP Fintech Reports More Than 60% of Newly Funded Accounts Acquired From International Markets<blockquote>老虎证券报告称，超过 60% 的新资金账户来自国际市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108076835","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"$Leading$ online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited  , today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudit","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">Leading</a> online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">领先的</a>网上经纪行，老虎证券控股有限公司（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>: TIGR）（“老虎证券”或“公司”）今天报告称，截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度收入为 6020 万美元，而 2020 年第二季度的收入为 3030 万美元。值得注意的是，该公司本季度新融资账户中有 60% 以上来自国际市场。平台能力的增强和对便捷获取全球经纪服务的需求不断增长推动了增长。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>老虎证券控股有限公司报告2021年第二季度未经审核财务业绩</b></a></blockquote></p><p> “We maintained our solid business momentum with a high client retention rate and increased operational synergies, ”commented Mr. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of UP Fintech. “I am confident in the positive outlook for our Company and our industry. Our singular focus is to employ technology to make investing more efficient and we are committed to increasing the breadth and diversity of our product offerings, as well as leveraging our leading position in underwriting and ESOP (Employee Share Ownership Plans) to attract new clients.”</p><p><blockquote>“老虎证券创始人兼首席执行官巫天华先生评论说：”我们保持了稳健的业务势头，客户保留率高，运营协同效应增强。“我对公司和行业的积极前景充满信心。我们的唯一重点是利用技术提高投资效率，我们致力于增加产品的广度和多样性，并利用我们在承保和员工持股计划（ESOP）方面的领先地位来吸引新客户。”</blockquote></p><p> During the second quarter, the total number of funded accounts increased to 529,100. The Company added more funded accounts in the first six months of 2021 than it did in its entire cumulative operating history. The total account balance increased 188.9% year-over-year to US$23.9 billion as the Company continued to attract new clients from multiple international markets. In Singapore, UP Fintech’s local subsidiary, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a> (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., launched new products and in-APP functions such as an industry heatmap, Mini USD/CNH futures, and OSE futures, supplementing the wide range of analytical tools and securities trading functions available on the Company’s platform.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，受资助账户总数增加到529,100个。该公司在 2021 年前六个月增加的资金账户比其整个累计经营历史还要多。由于公司继续从多个国际市场吸引新客户，总账户馀额同比增长188.9%至239亿美元。在老虎证券的当地子公司新加坡，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>（新加坡）私人。有限公司推出了行业热图、迷你美元/离岸人民币期货和OSE期货等新产品和应用内功能，补充了公司平台上提供的各种分析工具和证券交易功能。</blockquote></p><p> The Company also recently announced that it has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (CDP), and a trading member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited. These partnerships aim to improve the user experience and further strengthen the Company’s presence in the Singaporean market.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近还宣布，它已获得原则上批准，成为中央存管（私人）有限公司（CDP）的结算会员，以及新加坡交易所证券交易有限公司（SGX）和新加坡交易所衍生品交易有限公司的交易会员。这些合作旨在改善用户体验，进一步加强公司在新加坡市场的地位。</blockquote></p><p> The Company’s ESOP business continued to exhibit healthy growth with 51 new clients, up from 41 new clients in the previous quarter；ESOP adoption is accelerating and in the first six months of 2021 the Company added more new clients than it did in all of 2020. The Company is a leader in providing extensive expertise and guidance for start-ups at every stage of their ESOP from initial establishment through to execution and reporting. In addition, the Company is now offering its ESOP service to A-Share companies, further expanding its prospective client base.</p><p><blockquote>公司员工持股计划业务继续保持健康增长，新增客户51家，高于上一季度的41家；员工持股计划的采用正在加速，在2021年的前六个月，该公司增加的新客户比2020年全年都多。该公司是为初创企业在员工持股计划的每个阶段提供广泛专业知识和指导的领导者，从最初的建立到执行和报告。此外，本公司现正向A股公司提供员工持股计划服务，进一步扩大其潜在客户群。</blockquote></p><p> The Company served as an underwriter or member of the selling group in 17 IPOs, and in total provided subscriptions to 29 IPOs, including several high profile Hong Kong IPOs such as those of Angelalign (HK:6699) and Nayuki (HK:2150). In addition, The Company completed its own follow-on offering of 6.5 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Depository Shares in the second quarter and even&nbsp;offered retail investors the opportunity to subscribe through its flagship mobile trading APP, Tiger Trade.</p><p><blockquote>本公司于17次首次公开发售中担任包销商或销售组成员，并合共为29次首次公开发售提供认购，包括多项备受瞩目的香港首次公开发售，如Angelalign（港币：6699）及奈雪的（港币：2150）。此外，该公司还完成了650万股的后续发行。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>第二季度存托股票，甚至为散户投资者提供了通过其旗舰移动交易应用程序 Tiger Trade 认购的机会。</blockquote></p><p> “While the market will have its ups and downs and competition will remain intense, our innovative platform and technology have been built to create long term value for our clients,” Wu stated. “User experience has always been our top priority and we see significant room for growth as we continue to broaden our global footprint in the near-term.”</p><p><blockquote>“虽然市场会有起伏，竞争也会很激烈，但我们的创新平台和技术是为了为客户创造长期价值而建立的，”吴说。“用户体验一直是我们的首要任务，随着我们在短期内继续扩大全球足迹，我们看到了巨大的增长空间。”</blockquote></p><p> Safe Harbor Statement</p><p><blockquote>安全港声明</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar statements. Among other statements, the business outlook and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as the Company’s strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on Forms 20-F and 6-K, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">Forward</a>-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s growth strategies; trends and competition in global financial markets; the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic; and governmental policies relating to the Company’s industry and general economic conditions in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> and other countries. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含前瞻性陈述。这些声明是根据 1995 年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的 “安全港 ”条款作出的。这些前瞻性陈述可以用 “将 ”、 “期望 ”、 “预期 ”、 “未来 ”、 “打算 ”、 “计划 ”、 “相信 ”、 “估计 ”等术语来识别。除其他陈述外，本公告中的业务展望和管理层的引述，以及公司的战略和运营计划，都包含前瞻性陈述。公司还可以在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的 20-F 和 6-K 表格定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及公司高级职员、董事或雇员向第三方作出的口头陈述中作出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，均为前瞻性陈述。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">向前</a>-前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下几点： 公司的增长战略；全球金融市场的趋势和竞争；全球COVID-19疫情的影响；以及与本公司所处行业及整体经济状况相关的政府政策<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>和其他国家。有关这些风险和其他风险的更多信息包含在公司向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息截至本新闻稿发布之日，除非适用法律要求，否则公司没有义务更新任何前瞻性声明。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UP Fintech Reports More Than 60% of Newly Funded Accounts Acquired From International Markets<blockquote>老虎证券报告称，超过 60% 的新资金账户来自国际市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUP Fintech Reports More Than 60% of Newly Funded Accounts Acquired From International Markets<blockquote>老虎证券报告称，超过 60% 的新资金账户来自国际市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-10 16:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">Leading</a> online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">领先的</a>网上经纪行，老虎证券控股有限公司（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>: TIGR）（“老虎证券”或“公司”）今天报告称，截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度收入为 6020 万美元，而 2020 年第二季度的收入为 3030 万美元。值得注意的是，该公司本季度新融资账户中有 60% 以上来自国际市场。平台能力的增强和对便捷获取全球经纪服务的需求不断增长推动了增长。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>老虎证券控股有限公司报告2021年第二季度未经审核财务业绩</b></a></blockquote></p><p> “We maintained our solid business momentum with a high client retention rate and increased operational synergies, ”commented Mr. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of UP Fintech. “I am confident in the positive outlook for our Company and our industry. Our singular focus is to employ technology to make investing more efficient and we are committed to increasing the breadth and diversity of our product offerings, as well as leveraging our leading position in underwriting and ESOP (Employee Share Ownership Plans) to attract new clients.”</p><p><blockquote>“老虎证券创始人兼首席执行官巫天华先生评论说：”我们保持了稳健的业务势头，客户保留率高，运营协同效应增强。“我对公司和行业的积极前景充满信心。我们的唯一重点是利用技术提高投资效率，我们致力于增加产品的广度和多样性，并利用我们在承保和员工持股计划（ESOP）方面的领先地位来吸引新客户。”</blockquote></p><p> During the second quarter, the total number of funded accounts increased to 529,100. The Company added more funded accounts in the first six months of 2021 than it did in its entire cumulative operating history. The total account balance increased 188.9% year-over-year to US$23.9 billion as the Company continued to attract new clients from multiple international markets. In Singapore, UP Fintech’s local subsidiary, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a> (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., launched new products and in-APP functions such as an industry heatmap, Mini USD/CNH futures, and OSE futures, supplementing the wide range of analytical tools and securities trading functions available on the Company’s platform.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，受资助账户总数增加到529,100个。该公司在 2021 年前六个月增加的资金账户比其整个累计经营历史还要多。由于公司继续从多个国际市场吸引新客户，总账户馀额同比增长188.9%至239亿美元。在老虎证券的当地子公司新加坡，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>（新加坡）私人。有限公司推出了行业热图、迷你美元/离岸人民币期货和OSE期货等新产品和应用内功能，补充了公司平台上提供的各种分析工具和证券交易功能。</blockquote></p><p> The Company also recently announced that it has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (CDP), and a trading member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited. These partnerships aim to improve the user experience and further strengthen the Company’s presence in the Singaporean market.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近还宣布，它已获得原则上批准，成为中央存管（私人）有限公司（CDP）的结算会员，以及新加坡交易所证券交易有限公司（SGX）和新加坡交易所衍生品交易有限公司的交易会员。这些合作旨在改善用户体验，进一步加强公司在新加坡市场的地位。</blockquote></p><p> The Company’s ESOP business continued to exhibit healthy growth with 51 new clients, up from 41 new clients in the previous quarter；ESOP adoption is accelerating and in the first six months of 2021 the Company added more new clients than it did in all of 2020. The Company is a leader in providing extensive expertise and guidance for start-ups at every stage of their ESOP from initial establishment through to execution and reporting. In addition, the Company is now offering its ESOP service to A-Share companies, further expanding its prospective client base.</p><p><blockquote>公司员工持股计划业务继续保持健康增长，新增客户51家，高于上一季度的41家；员工持股计划的采用正在加速，在2021年的前六个月，该公司增加的新客户比2020年全年都多。该公司是为初创企业在员工持股计划的每个阶段提供广泛专业知识和指导的领导者，从最初的建立到执行和报告。此外，本公司现正向A股公司提供员工持股计划服务，进一步扩大其潜在客户群。</blockquote></p><p> The Company served as an underwriter or member of the selling group in 17 IPOs, and in total provided subscriptions to 29 IPOs, including several high profile Hong Kong IPOs such as those of Angelalign (HK:6699) and Nayuki (HK:2150). In addition, The Company completed its own follow-on offering of 6.5 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Depository Shares in the second quarter and even&nbsp;offered retail investors the opportunity to subscribe through its flagship mobile trading APP, Tiger Trade.</p><p><blockquote>本公司于17次首次公开发售中担任包销商或销售组成员，并合共为29次首次公开发售提供认购，包括多项备受瞩目的香港首次公开发售，如Angelalign（港币：6699）及奈雪的（港币：2150）。此外，该公司还完成了650万股的后续发行。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>第二季度存托股票，甚至为散户投资者提供了通过其旗舰移动交易应用程序 Tiger Trade 认购的机会。</blockquote></p><p> “While the market will have its ups and downs and competition will remain intense, our innovative platform and technology have been built to create long term value for our clients,” Wu stated. “User experience has always been our top priority and we see significant room for growth as we continue to broaden our global footprint in the near-term.”</p><p><blockquote>“虽然市场会有起伏，竞争也会很激烈，但我们的创新平台和技术是为了为客户创造长期价值而建立的，”吴说。“用户体验一直是我们的首要任务，随着我们在短期内继续扩大全球足迹，我们看到了巨大的增长空间。”</blockquote></p><p> Safe Harbor Statement</p><p><blockquote>安全港声明</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar statements. Among other statements, the business outlook and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as the Company’s strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on Forms 20-F and 6-K, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">Forward</a>-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s growth strategies; trends and competition in global financial markets; the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic; and governmental policies relating to the Company’s industry and general economic conditions in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> and other countries. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含前瞻性陈述。这些声明是根据 1995 年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的 “安全港 ”条款作出的。这些前瞻性陈述可以用 “将 ”、 “期望 ”、 “预期 ”、 “未来 ”、 “打算 ”、 “计划 ”、 “相信 ”、 “估计 ”等术语来识别。除其他陈述外，本公告中的业务展望和管理层的引述，以及公司的战略和运营计划，都包含前瞻性陈述。公司还可以在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的 20-F 和 6-K 表格定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及公司高级职员、董事或雇员向第三方作出的口头陈述中作出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，均为前瞻性陈述。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">向前</a>-前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下几点： 公司的增长战略；全球金融市场的趋势和竞争；全球COVID-19疫情的影响；以及与本公司所处行业及整体经济状况相关的政府政策<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>和其他国家。有关这些风险和其他风险的更多信息包含在公司向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息截至本新闻稿发布之日，除非适用法律要求，否则公司没有义务更新任何前瞻性声明。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108076835","content_text":"Leading online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited (Nasdaq: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.\nUP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results\n“We maintained our solid business momentum with a high client retention rate and increased operational synergies, ”commented Mr. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of UP Fintech. “I am confident in the positive outlook for our Company and our industry. Our singular focus is to employ technology to make investing more efficient and we are committed to increasing the breadth and diversity of our product offerings, as well as leveraging our leading position in underwriting and ESOP (Employee Share Ownership Plans) to attract new clients.”\nDuring the second quarter, the total number of funded accounts increased to 529,100. The Company added more funded accounts in the first six months of 2021 than it did in its entire cumulative operating history. The total account balance increased 188.9% year-over-year to US$23.9 billion as the Company continued to attract new clients from multiple international markets. In Singapore, UP Fintech’s local subsidiary, Tiger Brokers (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., launched new products and in-APP functions such as an industry heatmap, Mini USD/CNH futures, and OSE futures, supplementing the wide range of analytical tools and securities trading functions available on the Company’s platform.\nThe Company also recently announced that it has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (CDP), and a trading member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited. These partnerships aim to improve the user experience and further strengthen the Company’s presence in the Singaporean market.\nThe Company’s ESOP business continued to exhibit healthy growth with 51 new clients, up from 41 new clients in the previous quarter；ESOP adoption is accelerating and in the first six months of 2021 the Company added more new clients than it did in all of 2020. The Company is a leader in providing extensive expertise and guidance for start-ups at every stage of their ESOP from initial establishment through to execution and reporting. In addition, the Company is now offering its ESOP service to A-Share companies, further expanding its prospective client base.\nThe Company served as an underwriter or member of the selling group in 17 IPOs, and in total provided subscriptions to 29 IPOs, including several high profile Hong Kong IPOs such as those of Angelalign (HK:6699) and Nayuki (HK:2150). In addition, The Company completed its own follow-on offering of 6.5 million American Depository Shares in the second quarter and even offered retail investors the opportunity to subscribe through its flagship mobile trading APP, Tiger Trade.\n“While the market will have its ups and downs and competition will remain intense, our innovative platform and technology have been built to create long term value for our clients,” Wu stated. “User experience has always been our top priority and we see significant room for growth as we continue to broaden our global footprint in the near-term.”\n\nSafe Harbor Statement\nThis announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar statements. Among other statements, the business outlook and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as the Company’s strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on Forms 20-F and 6-K, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s growth strategies; trends and competition in global financial markets; the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic; and governmental policies relating to the Company’s industry and general economic conditions in China and other countries. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883374182,"gmtCreate":1631212894246,"gmtModify":1631889101755,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Good advice [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883374182","repostId":"1150166367","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150166367","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631166698,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150166367?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 13:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Day Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150166367","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading","content":"<p>Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading. Before the Internet, only people working for large financial institutions, brokerages, or physical trading houses, could take part in the stock market in such an active fashion. Today, markets and transactions are accessible to almost anyone.</p><p><blockquote>由于在线交易所的出现，现在参与日内交易的游戏要容易得多。在互联网出现之前，只有为大型金融机构、经纪公司或实体交易所工作的人才能以如此活跃的方式参与股票市场。今天，几乎任何人都可以进入市场和交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648c1300983659c803b16b3d0a0f74ec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Da</b><b>y Tr</b><b>ading Is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么</b><b>和Tr</b><b>阿丁是</b></blockquote></p><p> At base, day trading consists of frequently buying, selling and short-selling equities in a short period of time, usually reversing out of several positions within the same trading session. The aim is to earn a profit on each trade, sometimes even small profits, and watch those gains compound. The practice can be risky, but also highly lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>在 base，日内交易包括在短时间内频繁买入、卖出和卖空股票，通常在同一交易时段内反转多个头寸。目标是在每笔交易中赚取利润，有时甚至是小额利润，并观察这些利润的复合。这种做法可能有风险，但也非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Day trading may sound enticing for those looking to make a swift profit, but it can be extremely challenging to make a formidable career out of the practice. In fact, a study published by the University of California, Davis, in 2010 revealed that only 1% of day traders consistently make a living from that practice.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些希望快速获利的人来说，日内交易听起来可能很诱人，但从这种做法中获得令人敬畏的职业生涯可能是极具挑战性的。事实上，加州大学戴维斯分校 2010 年发表的一项研究显示，只有 1% 的日内交易者始终以这种做法为生。</blockquote></p><p> But for the few who can succeed in the high-stakes world of day trading, it likely will consume most to all of their time. It is very much a full-time job.</p><p><blockquote>但对于少数能够在高风险的日内交易世界中取得成功的人来说，这可能会占用他们大部分的时间。这在很大程度上是一份全职工作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Day Trading Works</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易如何运作</b></blockquote></p><p> At its core, day trading is all about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks that are on the move. Whether it’s positive or negative news which alters a stock’s trajectory, economic reports, corporate earnings, or simply a change in market mood, day traders cash in on rapid change. They enter and exit positions very quickly. Day traders must monitor positions closely, and often make quick, high-stakes decisions. There's no going to the pub for an afternoon drink hoping the positions they've taken will turn out.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，日内交易就是股市波动；日内交易者寻找正在波动的股票。无论是改变股票轨迹、经济报告、企业盈利的正面或负面新闻，还是仅仅是市场情绪的变化，日内交易者都能从快速变化中获利。他们进出仓位非常快。日内交易者必须密切监控头寸，并经常做出快速、高风险的决定。没有人会去酒吧喝下午茶，希望他们采取的立场会成功。</blockquote></p><p> Something to note, opportunities are not limited to betting that an investment security will rise in price; traders can also profit by betting on downward price movements. Liquidity is also very important to day traders, even more so than other investors. Since day traders need to be able to move in and out of positions with ease, they need to look out for equities which are highly liquid.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是，机会不仅限于押注投资证券的价格会上涨；交易者还可以通过押注价格下跌来获利。流动性对于日内交易者来说也非常重要，甚至比其他投资者更重要。由于日内交易者需要能够轻松地进出头寸，他们需要留意流动性高的股票。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is very much about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks making moves over short time spans.</i>  Most day trading strategies offer a lot of flexibility, allowing day traders to keep their positions open from a few minutes to a few hours. The amount of time that the position is open depends on how the trade is doing and whether the day trader can seize a profit at that time.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易很大程度上与股市波动性有关；日内交易者寻找在短时间内波动的股票。</i>大多数日内交易策略都提供了很大的灵活性，允许日内交易者将头寸保持在几分钟到几个小时之间。头寸的开仓时间取决于交易的进行情况以及日内交易者当时能否获利。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders can consider a variety of markets such as futures, equities, currencies, and options. And they can have access to all the exchanges via a direct access broker. It’s one of the fastest and most affordable ways to engage in day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者可以考虑各种市场，如期货、股票、货币和期权。他们可以通过直接访问经纪人访问所有的交易所。这是参与日内交易最快、最实惠的方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Methods of the Day Trader</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易者的方法</b></blockquote></p><p> There are various types of day trading, each suited for different styles. They can range from short-term trading, where stocks are held for a few seconds or minutes, to more long-term positions where stocks are held throughout the trading day.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易有多种类型，每一种都适合不同的风格。它们的范围可以从短期交易（持有股票几秒钟或几分钟）到更长期的头寸（在整个交易日持有股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Day trader strategies include:</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者策略包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Scalping:</b>This method seeks to make many small profits on small price changes throughout the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>剥头皮：</b>这种方法试图从一天中微小的价格变化中获得许多小利润。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Range trading:</b>This method mostly relies on support and resistance levels to make decisions. (<i>Support and resistance levels are concepts which assist traders to fully comprehend and act in the markets. Support refers to a price level where a downtrend is interrupted due to rising demand for an asset. Resistance refers to a level where an uptrend reverses a sell-off</i>.)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>区间交易：</b>这种方法主要依靠支撑位和阻力位来做出决策。（<i>支撑位和阻力位是帮助交易者充分理解市场并在市场中行动的概念。支撑位是指由于资产需求上升而导致下降趋势中断的价格水平。阻力位是指上升趋势逆转抛售的水平</i>.)</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>News-based trading:</b>Here, day traders take advantage of volatility surrounding news events.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>基于新闻的交易：</b>在这里，日内交易者利用围绕新闻事件的波动性。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>High-frequency trading ((HFT)):</b>This method utilizes algorithms to exploit small or short-term market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>高频交易（（HFT））：</b>这种方法利用算法来利用小的或短期的市场效率低下。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Swing Trading vs. Trend Trading vs. Buy and Hold</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波段交易与趋势交易。买入并持有</b></blockquote></p><p> While a day trader closes out his positions at the end of each trading day, a swing trader can hold her positions for days to even weeks before selling. In&nbsp;swing trading, since there is more time for an equity’s price to increase, there is also more opportunity to profit. With the right selling strategy, swing trading can be much less risky than day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者在每个交易日结束时平仓，而波段交易者可以在卖出前持有头寸数天甚至数周。在波段交易中，由于股票价格上涨的时间更多，因此获利的机会也更多。有了正确的销售策略，波段交易的风险比日内交易小得多。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, trend trading involves using a stock’s past price movements to make predictions on its future trajectory. Since trend traders operate on a longer timeline, they can also gauge broader economic trends and business cycles to determine when to buy and sell a stock. This strategy isn’t usually applied by day traders or swing traders.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，趋势交易涉及利用股票过去的价格变动来预测其未来的轨迹。由于趋势交易者的操作时间较长，他们还可以衡量更广泛的经济趋势和商业周期，以确定何时买卖股票。日内交易者或波段交易者通常不采用这种策略。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, buy-and-hold is often hailed as one of the best strategies available to investors. Under this approach, investors buy an asset and hold it for a few years or even decades, if they wish to, no matter what bumps occur along the way. The aim of this highly passive investing style is to ride out short-term market instability and losses in order to maximize returns over the long term. This is the basis for most long-term investing programs like 401(k)s and IRAs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，买入并持有通常被誉为投资者的最佳策略之一。在这种方法下，投资者购买一项资产并持有几年甚至几十年，如果他们愿意的话，无论一路上发生什么挫折。这种高度被动的投资风格的目的是克服短期市场不稳定和损失，以实现长期回报最大化。这是 401(k) 和 IRA 等大多数长期投资计划的基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buying on Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>保证金购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Day traders often use borrowed money to make trades, a method called “buying on margin.” With a margin account, a trader can use the securities they already own as leverage to borrow up to 50% of the value of the security they’re going to buy. Buying on margin can help day traders increase their profits substantially — far more than what they could have made using their own money. But the practice doesn’t come without risks. Leverage magnifies one's losses when trades don't work out, resulting in costly&nbsp;margin calls.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者经常使用借来的钱进行交易，这种方法被称为 “保证金购买 ”。有了保证金账户，交易者可以利用他们已经拥有的证券作为杠杆，借入高达他们要购买的证券价值 50% 的资金。保证金购买可以帮助日内交易者大幅增加利润——远远超过他们用自己的钱所能获得的利润。但这种做法并非没有风险。当交易不成功时，杠杆会放大一个人的损失，导致代价高昂的保证金评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Rules and Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易规则和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> While day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, it can be extremely risky. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission&nbsp;warns on its website&nbsp;that the practice can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。事实上，美国证券交易委员会在其网站上警告说，这种做法可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</blockquote></p><p> While conventional investing involves the careful analysis of stocks to determine whether an investment is wise, day traders use state-of-the-art technology and technical analysis to spot intraday trends. The risks to investors can be so grave that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has rules in place to monitor this fast-moving practice.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资涉及仔细分析股票以确定投资是否明智，而日内交易者则使用最先进的技术和技术分析来发现日内趋势。投资者面临的风险可能非常严重，以至于金融业监管机构制定了规则来监控这种快速变化的做法。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, but it can be extraordinarily risky. The SEC warns that it can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</i>  In addition to the SEC, FINRA also provides oversight of day traders and enforces certain rules and limitations. For instance, it specifies that a \"pattern day trader\" must maintain at minimum $25,000 in equity on any day that they day trade. (A non-pattern day trader is only required to maintain $2,000). Furthermore, the required minimum equity must be in the account before any day-trading begins. And if the account slips below $25,000, day trading is not permitted until it is restored.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。美国证券交易委员会警告说，这可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</i>除了SEC之外，FINRA还对日内交易者进行监督，并执行某些规则和限制。例如，它规定“模式日内交易者”必须在日内交易的任何一天保持至少25,000美元的股本。（一个非模式日内交易者只需要维持2000美元）。此外，在任何日内交易开始之前，账户中必须有所需的最低权益。如果账户跌破 25,000 美元，则在账户恢复之前不允许进行日内交易。</blockquote></p><p> A day trader may trade up to four times the account's maintenance margin excess as of end of business of the previous day. If a day trader exceeds that limit, however, the brokerage firm will issue a day-trading margin call. The day trader will then have, at most, five business days to deposit funds to meet that call. The brokerage firm can also charge a commission for these transactions.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者的交易最多可以达到前一天交易结束时账户维持保证金超额的四倍。然而，如果日内交易者超过该限额，经纪公司将发行日内交易保证金看涨期权。日内交易者最多有五个工作日的时间来存入资金以满足该看涨期权。经纪公司也可以对这些交易收取佣金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Cryptocurrency Trading Count as Day Trading?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加密货币交易算日内交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way to get involved in day trading is via cryptocurrencies. But since they aren’t regulated by the SEC or FINRA, at least at this point, investors won’t have to worry about day trading limits.</p><p><blockquote>参与日内交易的另一种方式是通过加密货币。但由于它们不受美国证券交易委员会（SEC）或美国金融监管局（FINRA）的监管，至少在目前，投资者不必担心日内交易限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Taxes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易税</b></blockquote></p><p> Day trading doesn’t qualify for favorable tax treatment. Successful day traders are expected to pay income taxes just like traditional investors in the stock market. In very rare cases, day traders can apply for special day trader tax treatment with the IRS. To qualify for that status, the IRS looks for the following criteria: 1) Profit seeking must derive from daily market movements in securities' prices, not from dividends or longer-term capital appreciation. 2) Market activity must be high. 3) The investor must be trading with both continuity and regularity.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易不符合税收优惠的条件。成功的日内交易者需要像股票市场的传统投资者一样缴纳所得税。在极少数情况下，日内交易者可以向美国国税局申请特殊的日内交易者税收待遇。为了获得这一地位，美国国税局寻找以下标准： 1) 追求利润必须来自证券价格的每日市场变动，而不是来自股息或长期资本增值。2）市场活跃度必须高。3）投资者的交易必须具有连续性和规律性。</blockquote></p><p> But for those who aren’t eligible, the following rules apply:</p><p><blockquote>但对于不符合条件的人，适用以下规则：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Day traders are required to pay taxes on investment gains in the year they sell.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>日内交易者需要在出售当年为投资收益纳税。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Day traders may offset gains against losses, but the gains they offset cannot total more than their losses.</p><p><blockquote><li>日内交易者可以用损失来抵消收益，但他们抵消的收益不能超过损失。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>If positions are held for a year or less, ordinary income taxes apply to any gains.</p><p><blockquote><li>如果持仓时间为一年或更短时间，则任何收益均需缴纳普通所得税。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Is Day Trading for Everyone?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易适合所有人吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For a new investor just starting to get into the markets, day trading likely isn’t suitable. Most day traders bring with them substantial training and knowledge about the markets. And with just one bad trade, large amounts of money can be lost very quickly.</p><p><blockquote>对于刚刚开始进入市场的新投资者来说，日内交易可能并不合适。大多数日内交易者都带来了大量的培训和市场知识。只要一笔糟糕的交易，大量的钱就会很快损失。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Tip: Day trading isn't usually advised for newer investors. Most day traders possess substantial training and knowledge about the markets.</i>  Unlike brokers who trade other people’s money, day traders are putting their own assets on the line. That’s precisely why regulatory bodies warn investors of the pitfalls associated with this type of trading.</p><p><blockquote><i>提示：通常不建议新投资者进行日内交易。大多数日内交易者都接受过大量的培训和市场知识。</i>与交易他人资金的经纪人不同，日内交易者将自己的资产置于危险之中。这正是监管机构警告投资者此类交易存在陷阱的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Many professional money managers even shy away from the practice of day trading. They argue that the benefits don’t warrant the risks. But for all the perils, there seem to be some people who can make a great deal of money.</p><p><blockquote>许多专业资金经理甚至回避日内交易的实践。他们认为，好处不足以抵消风险。但是尽管有种种危险，似乎还是有一些人可以赚很多钱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Day Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDay Trading: Rules, Risks, & Strategies<blockquote>日内交易：规则、风险和策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 13:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading. Before the Internet, only people working for large financial institutions, brokerages, or physical trading houses, could take part in the stock market in such an active fashion. Today, markets and transactions are accessible to almost anyone.</p><p><blockquote>由于在线交易所的出现，现在参与日内交易的游戏要容易得多。在互联网出现之前，只有为大型金融机构、经纪公司或实体交易所工作的人才能以如此活跃的方式参与股票市场。今天，几乎任何人都可以进入市场和交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648c1300983659c803b16b3d0a0f74ec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MoMo Productions/DigitalVision 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Da</b><b>y Tr</b><b>ading Is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么</b><b>和Tr</b><b>阿丁是</b></blockquote></p><p> At base, day trading consists of frequently buying, selling and short-selling equities in a short period of time, usually reversing out of several positions within the same trading session. The aim is to earn a profit on each trade, sometimes even small profits, and watch those gains compound. The practice can be risky, but also highly lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>在 base，日内交易包括在短时间内频繁买入、卖出和卖空股票，通常在同一交易时段内反转多个头寸。目标是在每笔交易中赚取利润，有时甚至是小额利润，并观察这些利润的复合。这种做法可能有风险，但也非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Day trading may sound enticing for those looking to make a swift profit, but it can be extremely challenging to make a formidable career out of the practice. In fact, a study published by the University of California, Davis, in 2010 revealed that only 1% of day traders consistently make a living from that practice.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些希望快速获利的人来说，日内交易听起来可能很诱人，但从这种做法中获得令人敬畏的职业生涯可能是极具挑战性的。事实上，加州大学戴维斯分校 2010 年发表的一项研究显示，只有 1% 的日内交易者始终以这种做法为生。</blockquote></p><p> But for the few who can succeed in the high-stakes world of day trading, it likely will consume most to all of their time. It is very much a full-time job.</p><p><blockquote>但对于少数能够在高风险的日内交易世界中取得成功的人来说，这可能会占用他们大部分的时间。这在很大程度上是一份全职工作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Day Trading Works</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易如何运作</b></blockquote></p><p> At its core, day trading is all about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks that are on the move. Whether it’s positive or negative news which alters a stock’s trajectory, economic reports, corporate earnings, or simply a change in market mood, day traders cash in on rapid change. They enter and exit positions very quickly. Day traders must monitor positions closely, and often make quick, high-stakes decisions. There's no going to the pub for an afternoon drink hoping the positions they've taken will turn out.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，日内交易就是股市波动；日内交易者寻找正在波动的股票。无论是改变股票轨迹、经济报告、企业盈利的正面或负面新闻，还是仅仅是市场情绪的变化，日内交易者都能从快速变化中获利。他们进出仓位非常快。日内交易者必须密切监控头寸，并经常做出快速、高风险的决定。没有人会去酒吧喝下午茶，希望他们采取的立场会成功。</blockquote></p><p> Something to note, opportunities are not limited to betting that an investment security will rise in price; traders can also profit by betting on downward price movements. Liquidity is also very important to day traders, even more so than other investors. Since day traders need to be able to move in and out of positions with ease, they need to look out for equities which are highly liquid.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是，机会不仅限于押注投资证券的价格会上涨；交易者还可以通过押注价格下跌来获利。流动性对于日内交易者来说也非常重要，甚至比其他投资者更重要。由于日内交易者需要能够轻松地进出头寸，他们需要留意流动性高的股票。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is very much about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks making moves over short time spans.</i>  Most day trading strategies offer a lot of flexibility, allowing day traders to keep their positions open from a few minutes to a few hours. The amount of time that the position is open depends on how the trade is doing and whether the day trader can seize a profit at that time.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易很大程度上与股市波动性有关；日内交易者寻找在短时间内波动的股票。</i>大多数日内交易策略都提供了很大的灵活性，允许日内交易者将头寸保持在几分钟到几个小时之间。头寸的开仓时间取决于交易的进行情况以及日内交易者当时能否获利。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders can consider a variety of markets such as futures, equities, currencies, and options. And they can have access to all the exchanges via a direct access broker. It’s one of the fastest and most affordable ways to engage in day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者可以考虑各种市场，如期货、股票、货币和期权。他们可以通过直接访问经纪人访问所有的交易所。这是参与日内交易最快、最实惠的方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Methods of the Day Trader</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易者的方法</b></blockquote></p><p> There are various types of day trading, each suited for different styles. They can range from short-term trading, where stocks are held for a few seconds or minutes, to more long-term positions where stocks are held throughout the trading day.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易有多种类型，每一种都适合不同的风格。它们的范围可以从短期交易（持有股票几秒钟或几分钟）到更长期的头寸（在整个交易日持有股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Day trader strategies include:</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者策略包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Scalping:</b>This method seeks to make many small profits on small price changes throughout the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>剥头皮：</b>这种方法试图从一天中微小的价格变化中获得许多小利润。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Range trading:</b>This method mostly relies on support and resistance levels to make decisions. (<i>Support and resistance levels are concepts which assist traders to fully comprehend and act in the markets. Support refers to a price level where a downtrend is interrupted due to rising demand for an asset. Resistance refers to a level where an uptrend reverses a sell-off</i>.)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>区间交易：</b>这种方法主要依靠支撑位和阻力位来做出决策。（<i>支撑位和阻力位是帮助交易者充分理解市场并在市场中行动的概念。支撑位是指由于资产需求上升而导致下降趋势中断的价格水平。阻力位是指上升趋势逆转抛售的水平</i>.)</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>News-based trading:</b>Here, day traders take advantage of volatility surrounding news events.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>基于新闻的交易：</b>在这里，日内交易者利用围绕新闻事件的波动性。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>High-frequency trading ((HFT)):</b>This method utilizes algorithms to exploit small or short-term market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>高频交易（（HFT））：</b>这种方法利用算法来利用小的或短期的市场效率低下。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Swing Trading vs. Trend Trading vs. Buy and Hold</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波段交易与趋势交易。买入并持有</b></blockquote></p><p> While a day trader closes out his positions at the end of each trading day, a swing trader can hold her positions for days to even weeks before selling. In&nbsp;swing trading, since there is more time for an equity’s price to increase, there is also more opportunity to profit. With the right selling strategy, swing trading can be much less risky than day trading.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者在每个交易日结束时平仓，而波段交易者可以在卖出前持有头寸数天甚至数周。在波段交易中，由于股票价格上涨的时间更多，因此获利的机会也更多。有了正确的销售策略，波段交易的风险比日内交易小得多。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, trend trading involves using a stock’s past price movements to make predictions on its future trajectory. Since trend traders operate on a longer timeline, they can also gauge broader economic trends and business cycles to determine when to buy and sell a stock. This strategy isn’t usually applied by day traders or swing traders.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，趋势交易涉及利用股票过去的价格变动来预测其未来的轨迹。由于趋势交易者的操作时间较长，他们还可以衡量更广泛的经济趋势和商业周期，以确定何时买卖股票。日内交易者或波段交易者通常不采用这种策略。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, buy-and-hold is often hailed as one of the best strategies available to investors. Under this approach, investors buy an asset and hold it for a few years or even decades, if they wish to, no matter what bumps occur along the way. The aim of this highly passive investing style is to ride out short-term market instability and losses in order to maximize returns over the long term. This is the basis for most long-term investing programs like 401(k)s and IRAs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，买入并持有通常被誉为投资者的最佳策略之一。在这种方法下，投资者购买一项资产并持有几年甚至几十年，如果他们愿意的话，无论一路上发生什么挫折。这种高度被动的投资风格的目的是克服短期市场不稳定和损失，以实现长期回报最大化。这是 401(k) 和 IRA 等大多数长期投资计划的基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buying on Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>保证金购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Day traders often use borrowed money to make trades, a method called “buying on margin.” With a margin account, a trader can use the securities they already own as leverage to borrow up to 50% of the value of the security they’re going to buy. Buying on margin can help day traders increase their profits substantially — far more than what they could have made using their own money. But the practice doesn’t come without risks. Leverage magnifies one's losses when trades don't work out, resulting in costly&nbsp;margin calls.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者经常使用借来的钱进行交易，这种方法被称为 “保证金购买 ”。有了保证金账户，交易者可以利用他们已经拥有的证券作为杠杆，借入高达他们要购买的证券价值 50% 的资金。保证金购买可以帮助日内交易者大幅增加利润——远远超过他们用自己的钱所能获得的利润。但这种做法并非没有风险。当交易不成功时，杠杆会放大一个人的损失，导致代价高昂的保证金评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Rules and Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易规则和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> While day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, it can be extremely risky. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission&nbsp;warns on its website&nbsp;that the practice can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。事实上，美国证券交易委员会在其网站上警告说，这种做法可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</blockquote></p><p> While conventional investing involves the careful analysis of stocks to determine whether an investment is wise, day traders use state-of-the-art technology and technical analysis to spot intraday trends. The risks to investors can be so grave that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has rules in place to monitor this fast-moving practice.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资涉及仔细分析股票以确定投资是否明智，而日内交易者则使用最先进的技术和技术分析来发现日内趋势。投资者面临的风险可能非常严重，以至于金融业监管机构制定了规则来监控这种快速变化的做法。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Key Takeaway: Day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, but it can be extraordinarily risky. The SEC warns that it can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.</i>  In addition to the SEC, FINRA also provides oversight of day traders and enforces certain rules and limitations. For instance, it specifies that a \"pattern day trader\" must maintain at minimum $25,000 in equity on any day that they day trade. (A non-pattern day trader is only required to maintain $2,000). Furthermore, the required minimum equity must be in the account before any day-trading begins. And if the account slips below $25,000, day trading is not permitted until it is restored.</p><p><blockquote><i>关键要点：日内交易既不违法也不道德，但风险极大。美国证券交易委员会警告说，这可能会在很短的时间内导致巨大的经济损失。</i>除了SEC之外，FINRA还对日内交易者进行监督，并执行某些规则和限制。例如，它规定“模式日内交易者”必须在日内交易的任何一天保持至少25,000美元的股本。（一个非模式日内交易者只需要维持2000美元）。此外，在任何日内交易开始之前，账户中必须有所需的最低权益。如果账户跌破 25,000 美元，则在账户恢复之前不允许进行日内交易。</blockquote></p><p> A day trader may trade up to four times the account's maintenance margin excess as of end of business of the previous day. If a day trader exceeds that limit, however, the brokerage firm will issue a day-trading margin call. The day trader will then have, at most, five business days to deposit funds to meet that call. The brokerage firm can also charge a commission for these transactions.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易者的交易最多可以达到前一天交易结束时账户维持保证金超额的四倍。然而，如果日内交易者超过该限额，经纪公司将发行日内交易保证金看涨期权。日内交易者最多有五个工作日的时间来存入资金以满足该看涨期权。经纪公司也可以对这些交易收取佣金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Cryptocurrency Trading Count as Day Trading?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加密货币交易算日内交易吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way to get involved in day trading is via cryptocurrencies. But since they aren’t regulated by the SEC or FINRA, at least at this point, investors won’t have to worry about day trading limits.</p><p><blockquote>参与日内交易的另一种方式是通过加密货币。但由于它们不受美国证券交易委员会（SEC）或美国金融监管局（FINRA）的监管，至少在目前，投资者不必担心日内交易限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Day Trading Taxes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易税</b></blockquote></p><p> Day trading doesn’t qualify for favorable tax treatment. Successful day traders are expected to pay income taxes just like traditional investors in the stock market. In very rare cases, day traders can apply for special day trader tax treatment with the IRS. To qualify for that status, the IRS looks for the following criteria: 1) Profit seeking must derive from daily market movements in securities' prices, not from dividends or longer-term capital appreciation. 2) Market activity must be high. 3) The investor must be trading with both continuity and regularity.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易不符合税收优惠的条件。成功的日内交易者需要像股票市场的传统投资者一样缴纳所得税。在极少数情况下，日内交易者可以向美国国税局申请特殊的日内交易者税收待遇。为了获得这一地位，美国国税局寻找以下标准： 1) 追求利润必须来自证券价格的每日市场变动，而不是来自股息或长期资本增值。2）市场活跃度必须高。3）投资者的交易必须具有连续性和规律性。</blockquote></p><p> But for those who aren’t eligible, the following rules apply:</p><p><blockquote>但对于不符合条件的人，适用以下规则：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Day traders are required to pay taxes on investment gains in the year they sell.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>日内交易者需要在出售当年为投资收益纳税。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Day traders may offset gains against losses, but the gains they offset cannot total more than their losses.</p><p><blockquote><li>日内交易者可以用损失来抵消收益，但他们抵消的收益不能超过损失。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>If positions are held for a year or less, ordinary income taxes apply to any gains.</p><p><blockquote><li>如果持仓时间为一年或更短时间，则任何收益均需缴纳普通所得税。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Is Day Trading for Everyone?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日内交易适合所有人吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For a new investor just starting to get into the markets, day trading likely isn’t suitable. Most day traders bring with them substantial training and knowledge about the markets. And with just one bad trade, large amounts of money can be lost very quickly.</p><p><blockquote>对于刚刚开始进入市场的新投资者来说，日内交易可能并不合适。大多数日内交易者都带来了大量的培训和市场知识。只要一笔糟糕的交易，大量的钱就会很快损失。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Tip: Day trading isn't usually advised for newer investors. Most day traders possess substantial training and knowledge about the markets.</i>  Unlike brokers who trade other people’s money, day traders are putting their own assets on the line. That’s precisely why regulatory bodies warn investors of the pitfalls associated with this type of trading.</p><p><blockquote><i>提示：通常不建议新投资者进行日内交易。大多数日内交易者都接受过大量的培训和市场知识。</i>与交易他人资金的经纪人不同，日内交易者将自己的资产置于危险之中。这正是监管机构警告投资者此类交易存在陷阱的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Many professional money managers even shy away from the practice of day trading. They argue that the benefits don’t warrant the risks. But for all the perils, there seem to be some people who can make a great deal of money.</p><p><blockquote>许多专业资金经理甚至回避日内交易的实践。他们认为，好处不足以抵消风险。但是尽管有种种危险，似乎还是有一些人可以赚很多钱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453955-what-is-day-trading\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453955-what-is-day-trading","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150166367","content_text":"Thanks to the advent of online trading houses, it's far easier now to get in the game of day trading. Before the Internet, only people working for large financial institutions, brokerages, or physical trading houses, could take part in the stock market in such an active fashion. Today, markets and transactions are accessible to almost anyone.\nMoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nWhat Day Trading Is\nAt base, day trading consists of frequently buying, selling and short-selling equities in a short period of time, usually reversing out of several positions within the same trading session. The aim is to earn a profit on each trade, sometimes even small profits, and watch those gains compound. The practice can be risky, but also highly lucrative.\nDay trading may sound enticing for those looking to make a swift profit, but it can be extremely challenging to make a formidable career out of the practice. In fact, a study published by the University of California, Davis, in 2010 revealed that only 1% of day traders consistently make a living from that practice.\nBut for the few who can succeed in the high-stakes world of day trading, it likely will consume most to all of their time. It is very much a full-time job.\nHow Day Trading Works\nAt its core, day trading is all about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks that are on the move. Whether it’s positive or negative news which alters a stock’s trajectory, economic reports, corporate earnings, or simply a change in market mood, day traders cash in on rapid change. They enter and exit positions very quickly. Day traders must monitor positions closely, and often make quick, high-stakes decisions. There's no going to the pub for an afternoon drink hoping the positions they've taken will turn out.\nSomething to note, opportunities are not limited to betting that an investment security will rise in price; traders can also profit by betting on downward price movements. Liquidity is also very important to day traders, even more so than other investors. Since day traders need to be able to move in and out of positions with ease, they need to look out for equities which are highly liquid.\n\nKey Takeaway: Day trading is very much about stock market volatility; day traders look for stocks making moves over short time spans.\n\nMost day trading strategies offer a lot of flexibility, allowing day traders to keep their positions open from a few minutes to a few hours. The amount of time that the position is open depends on how the trade is doing and whether the day trader can seize a profit at that time.\nDay traders can consider a variety of markets such as futures, equities, currencies, and options. And they can have access to all the exchanges via a direct access broker. It’s one of the fastest and most affordable ways to engage in day trading.\nMethods of the Day Trader\nThere are various types of day trading, each suited for different styles. They can range from short-term trading, where stocks are held for a few seconds or minutes, to more long-term positions where stocks are held throughout the trading day.\nDay trader strategies include:\n\nScalping:This method seeks to make many small profits on small price changes throughout the day.\nRange trading:This method mostly relies on support and resistance levels to make decisions. (Support and resistance levels are concepts which assist traders to fully comprehend and act in the markets. Support refers to a price level where a downtrend is interrupted due to rising demand for an asset. Resistance refers to a level where an uptrend reverses a sell-off.)\nNews-based trading:Here, day traders take advantage of volatility surrounding news events.\nHigh-frequency trading ((HFT)):This method utilizes algorithms to exploit small or short-term market inefficiencies.\n\nSwing Trading vs. Trend Trading vs. Buy and Hold\nWhile a day trader closes out his positions at the end of each trading day, a swing trader can hold her positions for days to even weeks before selling. In swing trading, since there is more time for an equity’s price to increase, there is also more opportunity to profit. With the right selling strategy, swing trading can be much less risky than day trading.\nBy contrast, trend trading involves using a stock’s past price movements to make predictions on its future trajectory. Since trend traders operate on a longer timeline, they can also gauge broader economic trends and business cycles to determine when to buy and sell a stock. This strategy isn’t usually applied by day traders or swing traders.\nMeanwhile, buy-and-hold is often hailed as one of the best strategies available to investors. Under this approach, investors buy an asset and hold it for a few years or even decades, if they wish to, no matter what bumps occur along the way. The aim of this highly passive investing style is to ride out short-term market instability and losses in order to maximize returns over the long term. This is the basis for most long-term investing programs like 401(k)s and IRAs.\nBuying on Margin\nDay traders often use borrowed money to make trades, a method called “buying on margin.” With a margin account, a trader can use the securities they already own as leverage to borrow up to 50% of the value of the security they’re going to buy. Buying on margin can help day traders increase their profits substantially — far more than what they could have made using their own money. But the practice doesn’t come without risks. Leverage magnifies one's losses when trades don't work out, resulting in costly margin calls.\nDay Trading Rules and Risks\nWhile day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, it can be extremely risky. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission warns on its website that the practice can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.\nWhile conventional investing involves the careful analysis of stocks to determine whether an investment is wise, day traders use state-of-the-art technology and technical analysis to spot intraday trends. The risks to investors can be so grave that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has rules in place to monitor this fast-moving practice.\n\nKey Takeaway: Day trading is neither illegal nor unethical, but it can be extraordinarily risky. The SEC warns that it can result in substantial financial losses in a very short time.\n\nIn addition to the SEC, FINRA also provides oversight of day traders and enforces certain rules and limitations. For instance, it specifies that a \"pattern day trader\" must maintain at minimum $25,000 in equity on any day that they day trade. (A non-pattern day trader is only required to maintain $2,000). Furthermore, the required minimum equity must be in the account before any day-trading begins. And if the account slips below $25,000, day trading is not permitted until it is restored.\nA day trader may trade up to four times the account's maintenance margin excess as of end of business of the previous day. If a day trader exceeds that limit, however, the brokerage firm will issue a day-trading margin call. The day trader will then have, at most, five business days to deposit funds to meet that call. The brokerage firm can also charge a commission for these transactions.\nDoes Cryptocurrency Trading Count as Day Trading?\nAnother way to get involved in day trading is via cryptocurrencies. But since they aren’t regulated by the SEC or FINRA, at least at this point, investors won’t have to worry about day trading limits.\nDay Trading Taxes\nDay trading doesn’t qualify for favorable tax treatment. Successful day traders are expected to pay income taxes just like traditional investors in the stock market. In very rare cases, day traders can apply for special day trader tax treatment with the IRS. To qualify for that status, the IRS looks for the following criteria: 1) Profit seeking must derive from daily market movements in securities' prices, not from dividends or longer-term capital appreciation. 2) Market activity must be high. 3) The investor must be trading with both continuity and regularity.\nBut for those who aren’t eligible, the following rules apply:\n\nDay traders are required to pay taxes on investment gains in the year they sell.\nDay traders may offset gains against losses, but the gains they offset cannot total more than their losses.\nIf positions are held for a year or less, ordinary income taxes apply to any gains.\n\nIs Day Trading for Everyone?\nFor a new investor just starting to get into the markets, day trading likely isn’t suitable. Most day traders bring with them substantial training and knowledge about the markets. And with just one bad trade, large amounts of money can be lost very quickly.\n\nTip: Day trading isn't usually advised for newer investors. Most day traders possess substantial training and knowledge about the markets.\n\nUnlike brokers who trade other people’s money, day traders are putting their own assets on the line. That’s precisely why regulatory bodies warn investors of the pitfalls associated with this type of trading.\nMany professional money managers even shy away from the practice of day trading. They argue that the benefits don’t warrant the risks. But for all the perils, there seem to be some people who can make a great deal of money.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880787447,"gmtCreate":1631083181989,"gmtModify":1631889101757,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880787447","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示：“市场以完美和脆弱为定价”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储充满信心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 在周二的一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场被定价为完美且脆弱，特别是因为自 2020 年 3 月低点以来，市场的调整幅度从未超过 10%。”她写道，该银行的全球投资委员会预计今年年底前股市将回调 10% 至 15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“面对令人担忧的事态发展，美国主要股指在 8 月份和 9 月份的头几天走强，连续创下更多每日新高，但本着‘攀登担忧之墙’的精神，不再具有建设性，”沙莱特说。“考虑在指数基金中获利了结，”她说，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19 住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和重大地缘政治转变”的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议将投资组合重新平衡为“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融领域的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直在挑战股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管周期性股票和小盘股等市场其他领域有所下降，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司 2021 年 9 月 7 日的票据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特写道：“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率 (P/E) 会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地由利润增长而不是政策制定者推动。”但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利“对经济前景保持乐观”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该银行的全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>由于道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500美国股市基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收盘创下历史新高。美国股市的蓝筹股指标道琼斯指数和科技股最多的标普500指数仍接近近期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，道琼斯市场数据显示，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点，至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示：“实际利率终于走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中撤出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，而市盈率已经远高于历史常态，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，投资者似乎对美联储及其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”寄予厚望，以实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎已经让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力巧妙地穿过政策针而不犯错误”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，美联储在 8 月下旬举行的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申了其观点，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策紧缩，并且“实际加息与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的门槛挂钩，”沙莱特表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示：“市场以完美和脆弱为定价”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储充满信心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 在周二的一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场被定价为完美且脆弱，特别是因为自 2020 年 3 月低点以来，市场的调整幅度从未超过 10%。”她写道，该银行的全球投资委员会预计今年年底前股市将回调 10% 至 15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“面对令人担忧的事态发展，美国主要股指在 8 月份和 9 月份的头几天走强，连续创下更多每日新高，但本着‘攀登担忧之墙’的精神，不再具有建设性，”沙莱特说。“考虑在指数基金中获利了结，”她说，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19 住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和重大地缘政治转变”的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议将投资组合重新平衡为“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融领域的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直在挑战股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管周期性股票和小盘股等市场其他领域有所下降，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司 2021 年 9 月 7 日的票据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特写道：“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率 (P/E) 会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地由利润增长而不是政策制定者推动。”但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利“对经济前景保持乐观”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该银行的全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>由于道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500美国股市基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收盘创下历史新高。美国股市的蓝筹股指标道琼斯指数和科技股最多的标普500指数仍接近近期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，道琼斯市场数据显示，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点，至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示：“实际利率终于走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中撤出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，而市盈率已经远高于历史常态，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，投资者似乎对美联储及其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”寄予厚望，以实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎已经让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力巧妙地穿过政策针而不犯错误”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，美联储在 8 月下旬举行的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申了其观点，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策紧缩，并且“实际加息与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的门槛挂钩，”沙莱特表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816263016,"gmtCreate":1630504085735,"gmtModify":1631889101761,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816263016","repostId":"1127232048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810239344,"gmtCreate":1629979066888,"gmtModify":1631889101765,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;[抱拳]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;[抱拳]&nbsp;","text":"[弱] [抱拳]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810239344","repostId":"1125030506","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125030506","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629961067,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125030506?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两件秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhone。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125030506","media":"Barrons","summary":"For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, li","content":"<p>For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果投资者来说，未来几周的焦点将是下一代iPhone，可能会在下个月的某个时候推出。但该公司还有其他杠杆来推动增长，但并非所有杠杆都涉及硬件。</blockquote></p><p> In particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在广告和搜索收入方面拥有巨大且不断增长的机会。华尔街周三发布的两份研究报告强调了这两个领域应如何在未来几个月和几年内为营收增长提供实质性推动，同时也指出了一些相关风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.</p><p><blockquote>在一份新报告中，Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 深入探讨了苹果在广告领域不断增长的机遇，他对自己的发现非常满意。Daryanani 认为，苹果的广告业务在 2025 年 9 月财年可能会增长到 200 亿美元，而 2020 财年的估计为 20 亿美元，其中大部分来自 App Store 广告。</blockquote></p><p> He notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of&nbsp;Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，预计的增长将与亚马逊（AMZN）的广告业务类似，后者在四年内从约 30 亿美元扩展到约 200 亿美元。达里亚纳尼断言，如果业务达到他的目标，广告在 2025 财年可能占苹果每股收益的 9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Daryanani 在一份研究报告中写道：”随着我们的发展，苹果的广告业务仍然是一个被低估的上升杠杆，它为他们提供了一种独特的方式，以确保消费者隐私得到维护，同时也进一步增强了货币化机制。</blockquote></p><p> Under Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果的 “应用追踪透明度 ”计划，应用在追踪其他公司应用和网站上的用户活动之前必须征得许可。该计划被定位为一项隐私措施，但其副作用是将更多的广告资金转移到苹果自己的广告平台上。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为，将App Store广告平台转向内容发现，而不仅仅是内容交付，是最大的机会——广告为应用开发者提供了一种吸引客户的方式，就像亚马逊广告帮助卖家穿过杂乱吸引购物者一样。他在苹果地图和苹果电视+等地方看到了更多的广告机会。</blockquote></p><p> “Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”广告对苹果来说是一个巨大的增长机会，他们庞大的安装基础为他们提供了过去没有有效利用的竞争优势。“最近的行动表明，随着苹果希望在 1 万亿美元的市场中抢占公平份额，这种情况将会改变。”</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani并不是唯一一个看到苹果广告业务潜在扩张的分析师。本月早些时候，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉就同一主题写了一份长篇研究报告；他的结论是，在 2023 财年或 2024 财年，广告可能成为苹果 70 亿至 100 亿美元的业务。他指出，苹果广告业务的增长动力包括 6 月份在中国大陆增加的搜索广告、更高的广告负载以及 5 月份在 App Store 引入横幅广告。萨科纳吉还指出，苹果目前从苹果新闻和股票应用程序中的广告中获得的收入非常有限，每年可能不到 5 亿美元。Daryanani在他的报告中呼应了所有这些观点。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在周三的一份新说明中，萨科纳吉将注意力转向了苹果与Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下谷歌的搜索关系。谷歌每年向苹果支付一大笔费用，让其成为 iPhone 上的默认搜索引擎——这种关系引起了司法部的注意，司法部去年对谷歌提起诉讼，指控其垄断了搜索市场的控制权，并在诉状中特别提到了苹果的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Neither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都没有透露他们的关系条款。萨科纳吉今天上午写道，他现在认为谷歌在 2020 财年向苹果支付的款项为 100 亿美元，高于他之前估计的 80 亿美元。他认为，这笔款项在 2021 财年可能会跃升至 150 亿美元，从而推高苹果的服务收入，并贡献苹果整体毛利润的约 9%。他估计，谷歌今年39%的流量获取成本将用于苹果，高于2013年的13%。</blockquote></p><p> Search is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.</p><p><blockquote>搜索确实是苹果最大的广告池。萨科纳吉估计，苹果 2020 财年的广告总收入为 124 亿美元，其中 100 亿美元来自该公司与谷歌的搜索关系。</blockquote></p><p> Sacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉认为苹果与谷歌日益密切的联系存在一些风险。首先，监管机构正在关注这一情况--尽管他认为司法部的诉讼 “还需要数年时间”才能得出结论，但他认为不利裁决可能会给苹果的利润带来 4% 到 5% 的潜在风险。他还认为，谷歌可能会选择停止向苹果付款，或者寻求重新谈判交易条款并减少付款，这存在一定的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉表示，谷歌支付这笔交易的部分原因是为了确保谷歌在搜索领域唯一真正的竞争对手微软（MSFT）的出价不会超过谷歌。但他也表示，2022 财年向苹果支付的款项可能接近 200 亿美元，“谷歌重新审视其战略并非不可能”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两件秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhone。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两件秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhone。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果投资者来说，未来几周的焦点将是下一代iPhone，可能会在下个月的某个时候推出。但该公司还有其他杠杆来推动增长，但并非所有杠杆都涉及硬件。</blockquote></p><p> In particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在广告和搜索收入方面拥有巨大且不断增长的机会。华尔街周三发布的两份研究报告强调了这两个领域应如何在未来几个月和几年内为营收增长提供实质性推动，同时也指出了一些相关风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.</p><p><blockquote>在一份新报告中，Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 深入探讨了苹果在广告领域不断增长的机遇，他对自己的发现非常满意。Daryanani 认为，苹果的广告业务在 2025 年 9 月财年可能会增长到 200 亿美元，而 2020 财年的估计为 20 亿美元，其中大部分来自 App Store 广告。</blockquote></p><p> He notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of&nbsp;Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，预计的增长将与亚马逊（AMZN）的广告业务类似，后者在四年内从约 30 亿美元扩展到约 200 亿美元。达里亚纳尼断言，如果业务达到他的目标，广告在 2025 财年可能占苹果每股收益的 9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Daryanani 在一份研究报告中写道：”随着我们的发展，苹果的广告业务仍然是一个被低估的上升杠杆，它为他们提供了一种独特的方式，以确保消费者隐私得到维护，同时也进一步增强了货币化机制。</blockquote></p><p> Under Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果的 “应用追踪透明度 ”计划，应用在追踪其他公司应用和网站上的用户活动之前必须征得许可。该计划被定位为一项隐私措施，但其副作用是将更多的广告资金转移到苹果自己的广告平台上。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为，将App Store广告平台转向内容发现，而不仅仅是内容交付，是最大的机会——广告为应用开发者提供了一种吸引客户的方式，就像亚马逊广告帮助卖家穿过杂乱吸引购物者一样。他在苹果地图和苹果电视+等地方看到了更多的广告机会。</blockquote></p><p> “Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”广告对苹果来说是一个巨大的增长机会，他们庞大的安装基础为他们提供了过去没有有效利用的竞争优势。“最近的行动表明，随着苹果希望在 1 万亿美元的市场中抢占公平份额，这种情况将会改变。”</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani并不是唯一一个看到苹果广告业务潜在扩张的分析师。本月早些时候，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉就同一主题写了一份长篇研究报告；他的结论是，在 2023 财年或 2024 财年，广告可能成为苹果 70 亿至 100 亿美元的业务。他指出，苹果广告业务的增长动力包括 6 月份在中国大陆增加的搜索广告、更高的广告负载以及 5 月份在 App Store 引入横幅广告。萨科纳吉还指出，苹果目前从苹果新闻和股票应用程序中的广告中获得的收入非常有限，每年可能不到 5 亿美元。Daryanani在他的报告中呼应了所有这些观点。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在周三的一份新说明中，萨科纳吉将注意力转向了苹果与Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下谷歌的搜索关系。谷歌每年向苹果支付一大笔费用，让其成为 iPhone 上的默认搜索引擎——这种关系引起了司法部的注意，司法部去年对谷歌提起诉讼，指控其垄断了搜索市场的控制权，并在诉状中特别提到了苹果的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Neither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都没有透露他们的关系条款。萨科纳吉今天上午写道，他现在认为谷歌在 2020 财年向苹果支付的款项为 100 亿美元，高于他之前估计的 80 亿美元。他认为，这笔款项在 2021 财年可能会跃升至 150 亿美元，从而推高苹果的服务收入，并贡献苹果整体毛利润的约 9%。他估计，谷歌今年39%的流量获取成本将用于苹果，高于2013年的13%。</blockquote></p><p> Search is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.</p><p><blockquote>搜索确实是苹果最大的广告池。萨科纳吉估计，苹果 2020 财年的广告总收入为 124 亿美元，其中 100 亿美元来自该公司与谷歌的搜索关系。</blockquote></p><p> Sacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉认为苹果与谷歌日益密切的联系存在一些风险。首先，监管机构正在关注这一情况--尽管他认为司法部的诉讼 “还需要数年时间”才能得出结论，但他认为不利裁决可能会给苹果的利润带来 4% 到 5% 的潜在风险。他还认为，谷歌可能会选择停止向苹果付款，或者寻求重新谈判交易条款并减少付款，这存在一定的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉表示，谷歌支付这笔交易的部分原因是为了确保谷歌在搜索领域唯一真正的竞争对手微软（MSFT）的出价不会超过谷歌。但他也表示，2022 财年向苹果支付的款项可能接近 200 亿美元，“谷歌重新审视其战略并非不可能”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-secret-weapons-advertising-search-51629906248?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-secret-weapons-advertising-search-51629906248?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125030506","content_text":"For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.\nIn particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.\nIn a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.\nHe notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.\n“Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.\nUnder Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.\nDaryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.\n“Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”\nDaryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.\nMeanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.\nNeither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.\nSearch is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.\nSacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.\nSacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":833100524,"gmtCreate":1629208583568,"gmtModify":1631889101769,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833100524","repostId":"2159022385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839015848,"gmtCreate":1629106532484,"gmtModify":1631889101773,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839015848","repostId":"1100841503","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894384550,"gmtCreate":1628805373570,"gmtModify":1631889101778,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894384550","repostId":"1162909242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":890779448,"gmtCreate":1628137894784,"gmtModify":1631892494861,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890779448","repostId":"1169931259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807136275,"gmtCreate":1628004796497,"gmtModify":1631892494867,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","text":"[惊吓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807136275","repostId":"1145562808","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145562808","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628000397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145562808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 22:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减规模”。别指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145562808","media":"Barron's","summary":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lo","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.</p><p><blockquote>美联储准备缩小债券购买计划的规模，因此股市可能很快就会走低。不过，这种痛苦可能并不剧烈，因为投资者普遍预计美联储会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> It was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known&nbsp;as the Taper Tantrum.</p><p><blockquote>2013 年 5 月，时任美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）告诉国会，如果经济状况继续改善，而政策制定者有信心这种情况将继续下去，美联储可能会削减购买规模。债券收益率飙升，标普500在五天内下跌了 5%，这一事件被称为缩减规模发脾气。</blockquote></p><p> As bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.</p><p><blockquote>随着债券收益率上升，股票的吸引力相对下降，特别是因为该银行发出信号，将减少对市场和经济的支持。美联储最终在当年12月宣布减少购买。</blockquote></p><p> This time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，投资者已经预计美联储将缩减规模。央行已经多次传达了货币政策的变化。根据高盛（Goldman Sachs）的一项调查，政府债券交易商预计，到2023年初，美联储每月购买的债券将从目前的1200亿美元降至零。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&amp;P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.</p><p><blockquote>股票的估值已经使得更高的债券收益率似乎是合理的。根据高盛（Goldman Sachs）的数据，标普500的股票风险溢价--该指数中平均股票的收益和股息回报率减去 10 年期国债收益率的百分比，目前约为 6 个百分点。该数字代表投资者要求持有股票的相对于安全债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> The figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”</p><p><blockquote>这一数字高于2010年以来经常出现的低于6%的水平，这意味着即使债券收益率走高，缩小股票风险溢价，从历史角度来看，股票仍将提供相对强劲的回报。“高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）写道：”市场参与者似乎意识到了缩减规模。“与历史相比，股票风险溢价仍然很高。”</blockquote></p><p> Others agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>其他人则认为市场正在消化美联储缩减规模。“格伦米德私人财富首席投资官杰森-普莱德（Jason Pride）写道：”有序、透明地取消宽松货币政策不应具有破坏性，尤其是如果取消宽松货币政策是为了应对基础经济的改善。</blockquote></p><p> At the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.</p><p><blockquote>至少，投资者应该监控美联储从债券市场撤出多少资金以及撤出的速度。对美联储缩减规模这一简单消息做出反应的大幅抛售还远未确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减规模”。别指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减规模”。别指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.</p><p><blockquote>美联储准备缩小债券购买计划的规模，因此股市可能很快就会走低。不过，这种痛苦可能并不剧烈，因为投资者普遍预计美联储会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> It was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known&nbsp;as the Taper Tantrum.</p><p><blockquote>2013 年 5 月，时任美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）告诉国会，如果经济状况继续改善，而政策制定者有信心这种情况将继续下去，美联储可能会削减购买规模。债券收益率飙升，标普500在五天内下跌了 5%，这一事件被称为缩减规模发脾气。</blockquote></p><p> As bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.</p><p><blockquote>随着债券收益率上升，股票的吸引力相对下降，特别是因为该银行发出信号，将减少对市场和经济的支持。美联储最终在当年12月宣布减少购买。</blockquote></p><p> This time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，投资者已经预计美联储将缩减规模。央行已经多次传达了货币政策的变化。根据高盛（Goldman Sachs）的一项调查，政府债券交易商预计，到2023年初，美联储每月购买的债券将从目前的1200亿美元降至零。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&amp;P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.</p><p><blockquote>股票的估值已经使得更高的债券收益率似乎是合理的。根据高盛（Goldman Sachs）的数据，标普500的股票风险溢价--该指数中平均股票的收益和股息回报率减去 10 年期国债收益率的百分比，目前约为 6 个百分点。该数字代表投资者要求持有股票的相对于安全债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> The figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”</p><p><blockquote>这一数字高于2010年以来经常出现的低于6%的水平，这意味着即使债券收益率走高，缩小股票风险溢价，从历史角度来看，股票仍将提供相对强劲的回报。“高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）写道：”市场参与者似乎意识到了缩减规模。“与历史相比，股票风险溢价仍然很高。”</blockquote></p><p> Others agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>其他人则认为市场正在消化美联储缩减规模。“格伦米德私人财富首席投资官杰森-普莱德（Jason Pride）写道：”有序、透明地取消宽松货币政策不应具有破坏性，尤其是如果取消宽松货币政策是为了应对基础经济的改善。</blockquote></p><p> At the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.</p><p><blockquote>至少，投资者应该监控美联储从债券市场撤出多少资金以及撤出的速度。对美联储缩减规模这一简单消息做出反应的大幅抛售还远未确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-stocks-tapering-51627939038?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-stocks-tapering-51627939038?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145562808","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.\nIt was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known as the Taper Tantrum.\nAs bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.\nThis time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.\nStocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.\nThe figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”\nOthers agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.\nAt the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":174311240,"gmtCreate":1627077452880,"gmtModify":1631892494881,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174311240","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833100524,"gmtCreate":1629208583568,"gmtModify":1631889101769,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833100524","repostId":"2159022385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176283626,"gmtCreate":1626887752065,"gmtModify":1631892494887,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176283626","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802750820,"gmtCreate":1627811718160,"gmtModify":1631892494878,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802750820","repostId":"1141267906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177067725,"gmtCreate":1627170351867,"gmtModify":1631892494877,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"EV is the mode of transport in the future","listText":"EV is the mode of transport in the future","text":"EV is the mode of transport in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177067725","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":861276555,"gmtCreate":1632507088777,"gmtModify":1632714651506,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861276555","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881114722,"gmtCreate":1631316850766,"gmtModify":1631883964302,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","listText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","text":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881114722","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175339312,"gmtCreate":1627005946436,"gmtModify":1631892494885,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175339312","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862569073,"gmtCreate":1632891004819,"gmtModify":1632891004951,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","listText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","text":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862569073","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869309893,"gmtCreate":1632239920112,"gmtModify":1632801821693,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorIdStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869309893","repostId":"1178869256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}