chanch的个人主页 - 老虎社区

chanch

chanch

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2021-07-27

Latest

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2021-08-29

Time to some challenge!

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2021-07-25

Reacted too slowly

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-08-10

Not a surprise!

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2021-07-28

Wow

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2021-07-19

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ 等待

2021-07-17

Not for the faint hearted!

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2021-09-19

Ok

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2021-07-28

Stay calm people!

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2021-07-25

More install for the year!

US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Good

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2021-07-20

A whole new world!

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-19

Turbulent

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2021-07-28

Latest

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2021-07-23

Blood bath

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2021-07-22

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ go go go

2021-10-10

Its not there yet!

3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Latest[财迷] [财迷]

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2021-07-20

Hmmmmm

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2021-07-20

Recovering

U.S. stock main indexes rose more than 1%<blockquote>美股主要指数涨超1%</blockquote>

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But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CRM":"赛富时","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis.  A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887355448,"gmtCreate":1631981462884,"gmtModify":1632804972144,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887355448","repostId":"2168757119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887355513,"gmtCreate":1631981419632,"gmtModify":1632804972267,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887355513","repostId":"887339719","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":887339719,"gmtCreate":1631972463127,"gmtModify":1632196020152,"author":{"id":"35433028694349","authorId":"35433028694349","name":"老虎专刊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e0b93d50cf0df54ce7b1b746f78db36c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"35433028694349","idStr":"35433028694349"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章","htmlText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/888195652\" target=\"_blank\">《街头智慧》：罗杰斯的反内卷投资人生</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3473459794537757\">@MidasMike</a> 罗杰斯37岁便实现财富自由并激流勇退，历时五年两次自驾环游世界成为一个“投资骑士”，移居新加坡并用大量时间陪伴家人，在几十年退休生活后，重仓新兴市场的罗杰斯身家仍然高达3亿美元。 在这个充满竞争和焦虑的世界中，罗杰斯一直遵循着自己的节奏和直觉，他是一个反内卷的聪明投资者。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/885694539\" target=\"_blank\">都给IPhone13测评，我给股王苹果做测评！</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> 苹果又开了一场发布会，果粉们又毫不意外觉得不太满意。 结合这个发布会，我就趁热打铁，为高达25000亿美元的苹果公司打一个分。 评分前所未有的高，也不是完美无缺，什么价格介入更合适？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/881508993\" target=\"_blank\">buy call错了怎么办？上涨赚钱，下跌还能赚！美股期权最牛玩法</a> 发布者：","listText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/888195652\" target=\"_blank\">《街头智慧》：罗杰斯的反内卷投资人生</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3473459794537757\">@MidasMike</a> 罗杰斯37岁便实现财富自由并激流勇退，历时五年两次自驾环游世界成为一个“投资骑士”，移居新加坡并用大量时间陪伴家人，在几十年退休生活后，重仓新兴市场的罗杰斯身家仍然高达3亿美元。 在这个充满竞争和焦虑的世界中，罗杰斯一直遵循着自己的节奏和直觉，他是一个反内卷的聪明投资者。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/885694539\" target=\"_blank\">都给IPhone13测评，我给股王苹果做测评！</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> 苹果又开了一场发布会，果粉们又毫不意外觉得不太满意。 结合这个发布会，我就趁热打铁，为高达25000亿美元的苹果公司打一个分。 评分前所未有的高，也不是完美无缺，什么价格介入更合适？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/881508993\" target=\"_blank\">buy call错了怎么办？上涨赚钱，下跌还能赚！美股期权最牛玩法</a> 发布者：","text":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 最好发现认识志同道合的虎友，一起投资一起成长。感谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： 《街头智慧》：罗杰斯的反内卷投资人生 发布者：@MidasMike 罗杰斯37岁便实现财富自由并激流勇退，历时五年两次自驾环游世界成为一个“投资骑士”，移居新加坡并用大量时间陪伴家人，在几十年退休生活后，重仓新兴市场的罗杰斯身家仍然高达3亿美元。 在这个充满竞争和焦虑的世界中，罗杰斯一直遵循着自己的节奏和直觉，他是一个反内卷的聪明投资者。 都给IPhone13测评，我给股王苹果做测评！ 发布者：@不二说价值 苹果又开了一场发布会，果粉们又毫不意外觉得不太满意。 结合这个发布会，我就趁热打铁，为高达25000亿美元的苹果公司打一个分。 评分前所未有的高，也不是完美无缺，什么价格介入更合适？ buy call错了怎么办？上涨赚钱，下跌还能赚！美股期权最牛玩法 发布者：","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b56179b42dc91e0d1d27b37c1c89c47","width":"1733","height":"915"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99f2c14a32d644799c78e85ffdbce509","width":"755","height":"429"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6021656eba73e4424aec1951e9a51229","width":"474","height":"306"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887339719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813819894,"gmtCreate":1630167062418,"gmtModify":1704956693594,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to some challenge!&nbsp;","listText":"Time to some challenge!&nbsp;","text":"Time to some challenge!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813819894","repostId":"2162907389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896868203,"gmtCreate":1628569899302,"gmtModify":1631891285436,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a surprise!&nbsp;","listText":"Not a surprise!&nbsp;","text":"Not a surprise!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896868203","repostId":"1181756731","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896868980,"gmtCreate":1628569860940,"gmtModify":1631891285438,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh wow!&nbsp;","listText":"Oh wow!&nbsp;","text":"Oh wow!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896868980","repostId":"1186259544","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899837205,"gmtCreate":1628172944607,"gmtModify":1631891285444,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Settling time&nbsp;","listText":"Settling time&nbsp;","text":"Settling time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899837205","repostId":"1132594719","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132594719","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628171470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132594719?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 21:51","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Coursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday<blockquote>Coursera昨日飙升21%后下跌3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132594719","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 5) Coursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday. \nthe company have reported Q2 2021 financial r","content":"<p>(Aug 5)&nbsp;Coursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）Coursera在昨日飙升21%后下跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4c30f620d3324d65c0c18c0207d5830\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">the company have&nbsp;reported Q2 2021 financial results that look \"mixed\" in the extreme&nbsp;yesterday&nbsp;.</p><p><blockquote>该公司昨天公布了2021年第二季度的财务业绩，看起来“喜忧参半”。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, Coursera blew away analyst targets for Q2 revenue, producing $102.1 million where Wall Street had expected only $91.5 million. On the other hand, though, Coursera appears to have missed analyst predictions on profit entirely. According to a writeup fromTheFly.comthis morning, instead of the predicted $0.11-per-share loss, Coursera lost $0.38 per share.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，Coursera的第二季度收入超出了分析师的目标，收入为1.021亿美元，而华尔街的预期仅为9150万美元。但另一方面，Coursera似乎完全没有达到分析师的利润预测。根据TheFly.com今天早上的一篇报道，Coursera每股亏损0.38美元，而不是预期的每股亏损0.11美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wait, what? Coursera lost three times as much money as it was \"supposed\" to, and its stock is going up? At first glance, it certainly does look that way. So let me unravel the mystery for you.</p><p><blockquote>等等，什么？Coursera亏损是“预期”亏损的三倍，股价却在上涨？乍一看，确实是这样。所以让我为你揭开谜底。</blockquote></p><p> When analysts make earnings estimates, they most often refer not to earnings calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) but rather topro formaearnings. And this fact can create some confusion among investors around earnings time as to whether a company \"beat\" or \"missed\" earnings.</p><p><blockquote>当分析师做出盈利预测时，他们通常不是指根据公认会计原则(GAAP)计算的盈利，而是指预计盈利。这一事实可能会让投资者在财报时间感到困惑，不知道一家公司的财报是“超过”还是“错过”。</blockquote></p><p> So in the case of Coursera, analysts forecast that the company would lose $0.11 per share<i>pro forma.</i>But the earnings number TheFly and other financial outlets refer to -- the $0.38-per-share loss -- was the company's<i>GAAP</i>loss. If you back out all the one-time charges (or what analysts consider one-time charges) from Coursera's results, though, the company's<i>pro forma</i>loss for the quarter was only $0.05 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就Coursera而言，分析师预测该公司每股将亏损0.11美元<i>形式上。</i>但TheFly和其他金融机构提到的盈利数据——每股亏损0.38美元——是该公司的<i>GAAP</i>损失。不过，如果你从Coursera的业绩中剔除所有一次性费用（或分析师认为的一次性费用），该公司的<i>备考</i>该季度每股亏损仅为0.05美元。</blockquote></p><p> Or in other words, comparing apples to apples, this was not an earnings \"miss,\" but an earnings \"beat.\"</p><p><blockquote>或者换句话说，将苹果与苹果进行比较，这不是盈利“失误”，而是盈利“超出”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday<blockquote>Coursera昨日飙升21%后下跌3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday<blockquote>Coursera昨日飙升21%后下跌3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 5)&nbsp;Coursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）Coursera在昨日飙升21%后下跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4c30f620d3324d65c0c18c0207d5830\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">the company have&nbsp;reported Q2 2021 financial results that look \"mixed\" in the extreme&nbsp;yesterday&nbsp;.</p><p><blockquote>该公司昨天公布了2021年第二季度的财务业绩，看起来“喜忧参半”。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, Coursera blew away analyst targets for Q2 revenue, producing $102.1 million where Wall Street had expected only $91.5 million. On the other hand, though, Coursera appears to have missed analyst predictions on profit entirely. According to a writeup fromTheFly.comthis morning, instead of the predicted $0.11-per-share loss, Coursera lost $0.38 per share.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，Coursera的第二季度收入超出了分析师的目标，收入为1.021亿美元，而华尔街的预期仅为9150万美元。但另一方面，Coursera似乎完全没有达到分析师的利润预测。根据TheFly.com今天早上的一篇报道，Coursera每股亏损0.38美元，而不是预期的每股亏损0.11美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wait, what? Coursera lost three times as much money as it was \"supposed\" to, and its stock is going up? At first glance, it certainly does look that way. So let me unravel the mystery for you.</p><p><blockquote>等等，什么？Coursera亏损是“预期”亏损的三倍，股价却在上涨？乍一看，确实是这样。所以让我为你揭开谜底。</blockquote></p><p> When analysts make earnings estimates, they most often refer not to earnings calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) but rather topro formaearnings. And this fact can create some confusion among investors around earnings time as to whether a company \"beat\" or \"missed\" earnings.</p><p><blockquote>当分析师做出盈利预测时，他们通常不是指根据公认会计原则(GAAP)计算的盈利，而是指预计盈利。这一事实可能会让投资者在财报时间感到困惑，不知道一家公司的财报是“超过”还是“错过”。</blockquote></p><p> So in the case of Coursera, analysts forecast that the company would lose $0.11 per share<i>pro forma.</i>But the earnings number TheFly and other financial outlets refer to -- the $0.38-per-share loss -- was the company's<i>GAAP</i>loss. If you back out all the one-time charges (or what analysts consider one-time charges) from Coursera's results, though, the company's<i>pro forma</i>loss for the quarter was only $0.05 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就Coursera而言，分析师预测该公司每股将亏损0.11美元<i>形式上。</i>但TheFly和其他金融机构提到的盈利数据——每股亏损0.38美元——是该公司的<i>GAAP</i>损失。不过，如果你从Coursera的业绩中剔除所有一次性费用（或分析师认为的一次性费用），该公司的<i>备考</i>该季度每股亏损仅为0.05美元。</blockquote></p><p> Or in other words, comparing apples to apples, this was not an earnings \"miss,\" but an earnings \"beat.\"</p><p><blockquote>或者换句话说，将苹果与苹果进行比较，这不是盈利“失误”，而是盈利“超出”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COUR":"Coursera, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132594719","content_text":"(Aug 5) Coursera fell 3% after soaring 21% yesterday. \nthe company have reported Q2 2021 financial results that look \"mixed\" in the extreme yesterday .\nOn the one hand, Coursera blew away analyst targets for Q2 revenue, producing $102.1 million where Wall Street had expected only $91.5 million. On the other hand, though, Coursera appears to have missed analyst predictions on profit entirely. According to a writeup fromTheFly.comthis morning, instead of the predicted $0.11-per-share loss, Coursera lost $0.38 per share.\nWait, what? Coursera lost three times as much money as it was \"supposed\" to, and its stock is going up? At first glance, it certainly does look that way. So let me unravel the mystery for you.\nWhen analysts make earnings estimates, they most often refer not to earnings calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) but rather topro formaearnings. And this fact can create some confusion among investors around earnings time as to whether a company \"beat\" or \"missed\" earnings.\nSo in the case of Coursera, analysts forecast that the company would lose $0.11 per sharepro forma.But the earnings number TheFly and other financial outlets refer to -- the $0.38-per-share loss -- was the company'sGAAPloss. If you back out all the one-time charges (or what analysts consider one-time charges) from Coursera's results, though, the company'spro formaloss for the quarter was only $0.05 per share.\nOr in other words, comparing apples to apples, this was not an earnings \"miss,\" but an earnings \"beat.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COUR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890077515,"gmtCreate":1628071841737,"gmtModify":1631891285448,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster ride!&nbsp;","listText":"Roller coaster ride!&nbsp;","text":"Roller coaster 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calm people!&nbsp;","listText":"Stay calm people!&nbsp;","text":"Stay calm people!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803214280","repostId":"2154943718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803212015,"gmtCreate":1627441017037,"gmtModify":1631891285455,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803212015","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809574634,"gmtCreate":1627383596328,"gmtModify":1631891285458,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"*claps*","listText":"*claps*","text":"*claps*","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809574634","repostId":"2154972069","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809592134,"gmtCreate":1627376795928,"gmtModify":1633765586506,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809592134","repostId":"1154449552","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809598459,"gmtCreate":1627376716471,"gmtModify":1633765587534,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sigh","listText":"Sigh","text":"Sigh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809598459","repostId":"2154813991","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809598340,"gmtCreate":1627376656580,"gmtModify":1633765588115,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809598340","repostId":"1154159969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154159969","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627372017,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154159969?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154159969","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion g","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.</li>  <li>We expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.</li>  <li>Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a06802a1c9fe18b04bc7c3eae704b91\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们的预测纯粹基于基本面。</li><li>我们预计Netflix未来的利润率将会扩大。</li><li>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>帕斯卡·勒塞格雷坦/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix Inc(NFLX)有潜力表现良好。然而，我们强调了在买入该股之前您需要考虑的事项。我们的预测纯粹基于公司的基本面。通过这样做，我们能够指出植根于数字而不是感知潜力的具体增长动力。此外，我们相信Netflix的利润率未来将会扩大。使用基本面可以让我们更合理地估计公司的利润率扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Forecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>预测并不容易，也很难做到精确。然而，预测的重点不是正确，而是合理。我们的预测基于公司的基本面。我们试图确定公司可以基本维持到2025年的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> We will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从2021财年的预期增长率开始。我们需要做的第一件事是确定什么构成再投资。对于Netflix来说，将是研发、营销、资本支出、内容净投资以及净营运资本的变化。</blockquote></p><p> Please note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我们将内容净投资衡量为开发内容花费的现金减去先前开发内容的摊销。我们的假设是，摊销金额是维持当前用户兴趣所需的“维护内容”，对增长没有贡献。内容的净投资是我们所认为的有助于吸引新用户或证明价格上涨合理性的“增长内容”。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.</p><p><blockquote>此外，折旧和摊销费用从再投资率中扣除，因为它被用作对增长没有贡献的维护资本支出的代表。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是找到收入资本比。这衡量公司每一美元资本产生的收入。一旦我们有了这两个数字，我们就把它们相乘来计算基本增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1190d7305518113889190a4e5d4e177\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，我们看到再投资率占收入的21.44%，收入占资本的比例为93.39%。因此，2021财年的基本增长率等于20.02%。这略高于分析师的预期，但幅度很小。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是确定运营杠杆程度，这是一个倍数，衡量公司的营业收入会因销售额的变化而发生多少变化。过去几年，Netflix的比率超过2。为了保守起见，我们将使用2，并每年减少它。此外，我们对毛利率做了同样的事情，起点为1.08。</blockquote></p><p> As the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&amp;D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&amp;D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:</p><p><blockquote>随着息税前利润率的提高，再投资率下降，因为研发和营销费用占收入的比例变小，导致增长放缓。我们通过将研发和营销设置为总运营费用的70%（2020财年的百分比）来衡量这种放缓。然后，我们用预测数字计算未来的基本增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8251e55395490f4c6d6347fef3a9a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We used the average capital expenditure and D&amp;A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on&nbsp;<b>current market conditions.</b>Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用了过去三年的平均资本支出和D&amp;A利润率。现在，我们将使用公司5%的加权平均资本成本将这些数字输入到DCF中，基于<b>当前的市场状况。</b>请注意，我们将净内容投资与资本支出进行了分组。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2441365f739f8ec307436cfd81926\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author using Finbox tools</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者使用Finbox工具</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，5%的贴现率、21%的税率、2%的终端增长率以及基于基本面的预测，该公司有24.6%的上涨潜力。当然，折扣率总是在变化，并不是每个人都喜欢使用当前的折扣率。因此，我们制作下图以展示按各折现率及最终增长率计算的公允价值：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a824dfed49d58dacb3f22cad000213\" tg-width=\"430\" tg-height=\"209\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，如果利率长期保持在低位，Netflix可能会看到强劲的上涨空间。然而，贴现率的变化空间不大，因此如果您认为贴现率正在上升，请小心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Checking for Consistencies in the Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>检查预测的一致性</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.</p><p><blockquote>让我们确保预测中的一切都有意义。我们将从收入增长开始。您可以看到，我们预计收入增长将在2022年加速，然后在随后几年逐渐下降。这是因为我们预计Netflix将在2021年增加净内容投资。该公司表示，将把内容总投资从2020年的118亿美元增加到170亿美元。因此，这导致更高的再投资率和加速收入增长的潜力。这对我们来说似乎是合理的，因为Netflix过去就发生过这种情况，收入增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4008559ff06f06414badc2e9f7509765\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"71\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们预测中的净内容投资与Netflix在大流行前的绝对支出金额相似。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.</p><p><blockquote>此外，管理层预计今年的自由现金流将达到收支平衡或略高。很难说稍微上面一点对管理团队意味着什么。尽管1.19亿美元略高于盈亏平衡，但仍明显低于2020年。然而，管理层尚未具体说明它是无杠杆还是杠杆自由现金流，并且无杠杆自由现金流（我们使用的）可能会更高。Netflix下半年的表现也有可能强于预期。无论如何，1.19亿美元对于整体估值来说并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生长催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> An obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.</p><p><blockquote>影响我们预测的一个明显的增长催化剂是该公司内容支出的增加。对于基于娱乐的业务来说，内容是最重要的因素。网飞可以拥有世界上技术最先进的平台，但如果内容很无聊，那么没有人会使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管流媒体越来越受欢迎，但有线电视仍占美国电视总时间的最大份额：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa87184a65693ead5a02993493df64f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，流媒体市场整体仅占总份额的27%。尽管人们都在谈论竞争加剧，但流媒体领域整体仍有很大的增长空间。因此，即使Netflix的市场份额输给了其他流媒体，它仍然能够在绝对值上增长。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果执行得当，Netflix进军视频游戏可能是有益的。然而，我们对这个想法还没有太多的信心，我们将在下面的“风险”部分详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> We will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从电子游戏开始。电子游戏行业非常艰难。自2014年成立该部门以来，凭借亚马逊公司(AMZN)赚取的所有资金，该公司一直在努力发布一款成功的游戏。同样，Alphabet公司（GOOG）也遭遇了类似的问题。这意味着开发成功的视频游戏并不像向开发者砸钱那么容易，需要一定程度的专业化。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.</p><p><blockquote>说到砸钱，网飞在内容上增加的支出如果操之过急，可能不会产生积极的结果。这篇文章证明了人们可以注意到项目何时仓促进行。虽然这篇文章是2019年的，但它是一个重要的提醒，内容的质量可能比数量更重要。如果Netflix未能提供高质量的服务，用户数量可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.</p><p><blockquote>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估；然而，如果利率/贴现率上升，它不能提供足够的安全边际。因此，尽管Netflix可能会继续表现良好，但我们目前仍将保持观望。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.</li>  <li>We expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.</li>  <li>Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a06802a1c9fe18b04bc7c3eae704b91\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们的预测纯粹基于基本面。</li><li>我们预计Netflix未来的利润率将会扩大。</li><li>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>帕斯卡·勒塞格雷坦/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix Inc(NFLX)有潜力表现良好。然而，我们强调了在买入该股之前您需要考虑的事项。我们的预测纯粹基于公司的基本面。通过这样做，我们能够指出植根于数字而不是感知潜力的具体增长动力。此外，我们相信Netflix的利润率未来将会扩大。使用基本面可以让我们更合理地估计公司的利润率扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Forecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>预测并不容易，也很难做到精确。然而，预测的重点不是正确，而是合理。我们的预测基于公司的基本面。我们试图确定公司可以基本维持到2025年的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> We will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从2021财年的预期增长率开始。我们需要做的第一件事是确定什么构成再投资。对于Netflix来说，将是研发、营销、资本支出、内容净投资以及净营运资本的变化。</blockquote></p><p> Please note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我们将内容净投资衡量为开发内容花费的现金减去先前开发内容的摊销。我们的假设是，摊销金额是维持当前用户兴趣所需的“维护内容”，对增长没有贡献。内容的净投资是我们所认为的有助于吸引新用户或证明价格上涨合理性的“增长内容”。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.</p><p><blockquote>此外，折旧和摊销费用从再投资率中扣除，因为它被用作对增长没有贡献的维护资本支出的代表。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是找到收入资本比。这衡量公司每一美元资本产生的收入。一旦我们有了这两个数字，我们就把它们相乘来计算基本增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1190d7305518113889190a4e5d4e177\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，我们看到再投资率占收入的21.44%，收入占资本的比例为93.39%。因此，2021财年的基本增长率等于20.02%。这略高于分析师的预期，但幅度很小。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是确定运营杠杆程度，这是一个倍数，衡量公司的营业收入会因销售额的变化而发生多少变化。过去几年，Netflix的比率超过2。为了保守起见，我们将使用2，并每年减少它。此外，我们对毛利率做了同样的事情，起点为1.08。</blockquote></p><p> As the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&amp;D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&amp;D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:</p><p><blockquote>随着息税前利润率的提高，再投资率下降，因为研发和营销费用占收入的比例变小，导致增长放缓。我们通过将研发和营销设置为总运营费用的70%（2020财年的百分比）来衡量这种放缓。然后，我们用预测数字计算未来的基本增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8251e55395490f4c6d6347fef3a9a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We used the average capital expenditure and D&amp;A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on&nbsp;<b>current market conditions.</b>Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用了过去三年的平均资本支出和D&amp;A利润率。现在，我们将使用公司5%的加权平均资本成本将这些数字输入到DCF中，基于<b>当前的市场状况。</b>请注意，我们将净内容投资与资本支出进行了分组。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2441365f739f8ec307436cfd81926\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author using Finbox tools</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者使用Finbox工具</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，5%的贴现率、21%的税率、2%的终端增长率以及基于基本面的预测，该公司有24.6%的上涨潜力。当然，折扣率总是在变化，并不是每个人都喜欢使用当前的折扣率。因此，我们制作下图以展示按各折现率及最终增长率计算的公允价值：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a824dfed49d58dacb3f22cad000213\" tg-width=\"430\" tg-height=\"209\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，如果利率长期保持在低位，Netflix可能会看到强劲的上涨空间。然而，贴现率的变化空间不大，因此如果您认为贴现率正在上升，请小心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Checking for Consistencies in the Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>检查预测的一致性</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.</p><p><blockquote>让我们确保预测中的一切都有意义。我们将从收入增长开始。您可以看到，我们预计收入增长将在2022年加速，然后在随后几年逐渐下降。这是因为我们预计Netflix将在2021年增加净内容投资。该公司表示，将把内容总投资从2020年的118亿美元增加到170亿美元。因此，这导致更高的再投资率和加速收入增长的潜力。这对我们来说似乎是合理的，因为Netflix过去就发生过这种情况，收入增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4008559ff06f06414badc2e9f7509765\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"71\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们预测中的净内容投资与Netflix在大流行前的绝对支出金额相似。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.</p><p><blockquote>此外，管理层预计今年的自由现金流将达到收支平衡或略高。很难说稍微上面一点对管理团队意味着什么。尽管1.19亿美元略高于盈亏平衡，但仍明显低于2020年。然而，管理层尚未具体说明它是无杠杆还是杠杆自由现金流，并且无杠杆自由现金流（我们使用的）可能会更高。Netflix下半年的表现也有可能强于预期。无论如何，1.19亿美元对于整体估值来说并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生长催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> An obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.</p><p><blockquote>影响我们预测的一个明显的增长催化剂是该公司内容支出的增加。对于基于娱乐的业务来说，内容是最重要的因素。网飞可以拥有世界上技术最先进的平台，但如果内容很无聊，那么没有人会使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管流媒体越来越受欢迎，但有线电视仍占美国电视总时间的最大份额：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa87184a65693ead5a02993493df64f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，流媒体市场整体仅占总份额的27%。尽管人们都在谈论竞争加剧，但流媒体领域整体仍有很大的增长空间。因此，即使Netflix的市场份额输给了其他流媒体，它仍然能够在绝对值上增长。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果执行得当，Netflix进军视频游戏可能是有益的。然而，我们对这个想法还没有太多的信心，我们将在下面的“风险”部分详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> We will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从电子游戏开始。电子游戏行业非常艰难。自2014年成立该部门以来，凭借亚马逊公司(AMZN)赚取的所有资金，该公司一直在努力发布一款成功的游戏。同样，Alphabet公司（GOOG）也遭遇了类似的问题。这意味着开发成功的视频游戏并不像向开发者砸钱那么容易，需要一定程度的专业化。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.</p><p><blockquote>说到砸钱，网飞在内容上增加的支出如果操之过急，可能不会产生积极的结果。这篇文章证明了人们可以注意到项目何时仓促进行。虽然这篇文章是2019年的，但它是一个重要的提醒，内容的质量可能比数量更重要。如果Netflix未能提供高质量的服务，用户数量可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.</p><p><blockquote>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估；然而，如果利率/贴现率上升，它不能提供足够的安全边际。因此，尽管Netflix可能会继续表现良好，但我们目前仍将保持观望。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154159969","content_text":"Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions.\n\nPascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News\nNetflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.\nValuation\nForecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.\nWe will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.\nPlease note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.\nIn addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.\nThe next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.\nSource: Author\nIn the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.\nThe next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.\nAs the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:\nSource: Author\nWe used the average capital expenditure and D&A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on current market conditions.Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.\nSource: Author using Finbox tools\nAs you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.\nChecking for Consistencies in the Forecast\nLet's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.\nSource: Author\nIn addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.\nFurthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.\nGrowth Catalysts\nAn obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.\nIn addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:\n\nAs you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.\nFinally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.\nRisks\nWe will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.\nSpeaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.\nFinal Thoughts\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809593548,"gmtCreate":1627376575084,"gmtModify":1633765588661,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809593548","repostId":"800862044","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":800862044,"gmtCreate":1627291505685,"gmtModify":1716217937424,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【晒单有奖】晒晒我亏的最多的股票～","htmlText":"本来以为上周五已经到了黄金坑了，结果发现坑下还有钻石底，在Black&nbsp;Friday之后，居然还有Black&nbsp;Monday, 真的是跌出了股灾的感觉。A股方面：创业板一度崩了5%，上证暴跌超3%，上证50一度跌近5%，整个市场超3000个股下跌，外资更是疯狂出逃了100亿。随着“双减”政策落地，对在线教育的商业模式和估值体系有“毁灭性”的冲击。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a> 齐齐领跌市场。不过令人意外的是白酒和医美板块也跌了，为何暴跌，最火的段子解释了一切。港股方面，恒生指数暴跌近1000点，科技指数暴跌近6%，昔日的大牛股腾讯、美团、阿里巴巴、快手，全部咔咔的跌，真的是越过山丘，跌跌不休。美股盘前再度延续了周五的走势，先跌为敬。要说为啥下跌，机智的网友们也给出了最佳答案。哎，你还要我怎样？还要我怎样？欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的股票今天表现如何？晒晒你亏了多少钱？，我们一起抱团取暖、相互安慰~ 【参与方式】 在本贴评论区留言晒出持仓分享图即可参与！ 如何参与晒单？ 点击APP的“交易”页面，选择交易的股票，点击持仓盈亏分享，即可解锁萌萌的小虎表情包。（更新到6.8.9以上版本的虎友们，除了分享单只股票涨跌幅之外，还可以分享你赚、亏了多少钱哦）  【活动奖励】 老虎社区第7届比惨大赛正式开始喽，欢迎大家在本帖下方留言，聊聊你的股票今天表现如何？晒晒你亏/赚了多少钱？我们会选取盈亏最多或者最有","listText":"本来以为上周五已经到了黄金坑了，结果发现坑下还有钻石底，在Black&nbsp;Friday之后，居然还有Black&nbsp;Monday, 真的是跌出了股灾的感觉。A股方面：创业板一度崩了5%，上证暴跌超3%，上证50一度跌近5%，整个市场超3000个股下跌，外资更是疯狂出逃了100亿。随着“双减”政策落地，对在线教育的商业模式和估值体系有“毁灭性”的冲击。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a> 齐齐领跌市场。不过令人意外的是白酒和医美板块也跌了，为何暴跌，最火的段子解释了一切。港股方面，恒生指数暴跌近1000点，科技指数暴跌近6%，昔日的大牛股腾讯、美团、阿里巴巴、快手，全部咔咔的跌，真的是越过山丘，跌跌不休。美股盘前再度延续了周五的走势，先跌为敬。要说为啥下跌，机智的网友们也给出了最佳答案。哎，你还要我怎样？还要我怎样？欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的股票今天表现如何？晒晒你亏了多少钱？，我们一起抱团取暖、相互安慰~ 【参与方式】 在本贴评论区留言晒出持仓分享图即可参与！ 如何参与晒单？ 点击APP的“交易”页面，选择交易的股票，点击持仓盈亏分享，即可解锁萌萌的小虎表情包。（更新到6.8.9以上版本的虎友们，除了分享单只股票涨跌幅之外，还可以分享你赚、亏了多少钱哦）  【活动奖励】 老虎社区第7届比惨大赛正式开始喽，欢迎大家在本帖下方留言，聊聊你的股票今天表现如何？晒晒你亏/赚了多少钱？我们会选取盈亏最多或者最有","text":"本来以为上周五已经到了黄金坑了，结果发现坑下还有钻石底，在Black Friday之后，居然还有Black Monday, 真的是跌出了股灾的感觉。A股方面：创业板一度崩了5%，上证暴跌超3%，上证50一度跌近5%，整个市场超3000个股下跌，外资更是疯狂出逃了100亿。随着“双减”政策落地，对在线教育的商业模式和估值体系有“毁灭性”的冲击。$新东方(EDU)$ $好未来(TAL)$ $高途(GOTU)$ 齐齐领跌市场。不过令人意外的是白酒和医美板块也跌了，为何暴跌，最火的段子解释了一切。港股方面，恒生指数暴跌近1000点，科技指数暴跌近6%，昔日的大牛股腾讯、美团、阿里巴巴、快手，全部咔咔的跌，真的是越过山丘，跌跌不休。美股盘前再度延续了周五的走势，先跌为敬。要说为啥下跌，机智的网友们也给出了最佳答案。哎，你还要我怎样？还要我怎样？欢迎大家在下帖留言，聊聊你的股票今天表现如何？晒晒你亏了多少钱？，我们一起抱团取暖、相互安慰~ 【参与方式】 在本贴评论区留言晒出持仓分享图即可参与！ 如何参与晒单？ 点击APP的“交易”页面，选择交易的股票，点击持仓盈亏分享，即可解锁萌萌的小虎表情包。（更新到6.8.9以上版本的虎友们，除了分享单只股票涨跌幅之外，还可以分享你赚、亏了多少钱哦） 【活动奖励】 老虎社区第7届比惨大赛正式开始喽，欢迎大家在本帖下方留言，聊聊你的股票今天表现如何？晒晒你亏/赚了多少钱？我们会选取盈亏最多或者最有","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d1d61084247d955b3196f8e9717aa0","width":"1784","height":"1088"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3b262c7e8f8995b2cb6c983551cf40d","width":"612","height":"756"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c494b7e30cdd938ba31081d68ea577","width":"1538","height":"478"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800862044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809599985,"gmtCreate":1627376437647,"gmtModify":1633765589991,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consumers are back in business, a good sign","listText":"Consumers are back in business, a good sign","text":"Consumers are back in business, a good sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809599985","repostId":"1175986847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175986847","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627371958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175986847?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:45","market":"uk","language":"en","title":"LVMH shares edge higher as sales and profits rise<blockquote>随着销售额和利润的增长，LVMH股价小幅走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175986847","media":"Reuters","summary":"PARIS (Reuters) - LVMH’s shares eged higher on Tuesday after the world’s biggest luxury goods group ","content":"<p>PARIS (Reuters) - LVMH’s shares eged higher on Tuesday after the world’s biggest luxury goods group posted higher sales and profits, driven by surging sales of fashion lines and handbags by Dior, Fendi and Louis Vuitton.</p><p><blockquote>巴黎（路透社）-在迪奥、芬迪和路易威登时装系列和手袋销量飙升的推动下，全球最大的奢侈品集团LVMH公布了更高的销售额和利润。</blockquote></p><p> LVMH shares were up 0.3% in early session trading.</p><p><blockquote>LVMH股价早盘上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> “We are encouraged by Louis Vuitton and Dior’s exceptional brand positioning across regions and sustained local luxury consumer demand,” wrote brokerage Cowen &amp; Company, which kept an ‘outperform’ rating on LVMH shares.</p><p><blockquote>经纪公司Cowen&amp;Company写道：“路易威登和迪奥在各地区卓越的品牌定位以及当地奢侈品消费者持续的需求让我们感到鼓舞。”该公司对LVMH股票维持‘跑赢大盘’评级。</blockquote></p><p> The luxury goods industry is recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which shut down global travel and temporarily closed stores, and LVMH has benefited more than most, using its heft to spend on marketing and social media campaigns when some of its smaller rivals are still struggling to get back on their feet.</p><p><blockquote>奢侈品行业正在从COVID-19危机中复苏，这场危机导致全球旅行关闭并暂时关闭了商店，而LVMH比大多数公司受益更多，当一些规模较小的竞争对手仍在努力重新站起来时，它利用自己的影响力在营销和社交媒体活动上投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Overall sales at LVMH, which also owns champagne and cosmetics labels, rose by 84% year-on-year in the second quarter on a like-for-like basis, which strips out currency swings, and stood at 14.7 billion euros ($17.33 billion).</p><p><blockquote>LVMH还拥有香槟和化妆品品牌，剔除汇率波动因素后，第二季度整体销售额同比增长84%，达到147亿欧元（173.3亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Operating profit in the first six months of this year more than quadrupled compared with a year ago, beating expectations among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>今年前六个月的营业利润比去年同期增长了四倍多，超出了路孚特调查的分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “We think much of this will be repeated in H2 in the absence of a sector momentum shift: as long as the sector performs, LVMH will perform better,” wrote brokerage Jefferies, which kept a ‘buy’ rating on LVMH shares.</p><p><blockquote>券商杰富瑞(Jefferies)写道：“我们认为，在行业势头没有转变的情况下，这种情况将在下半年重演：只要该行业表现良好，LVMH就会表现更好。”该公司维持对LVMH股票的‘买入’评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>LVMH shares edge higher as sales and profits rise<blockquote>随着销售额和利润的增长，LVMH股价小幅走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLVMH shares edge higher as sales and profits rise<blockquote>随着销售额和利润的增长，LVMH股价小幅走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>PARIS (Reuters) - LVMH’s shares eged higher on Tuesday after the world’s biggest luxury goods group posted higher sales and profits, driven by surging sales of fashion lines and handbags by Dior, Fendi and Louis Vuitton.</p><p><blockquote>巴黎（路透社）-在迪奥、芬迪和路易威登时装系列和手袋销量飙升的推动下，全球最大的奢侈品集团LVMH公布了更高的销售额和利润。</blockquote></p><p> LVMH shares were up 0.3% in early session trading.</p><p><blockquote>LVMH股价早盘上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> “We are encouraged by Louis Vuitton and Dior’s exceptional brand positioning across regions and sustained local luxury consumer demand,” wrote brokerage Cowen &amp; Company, which kept an ‘outperform’ rating on LVMH shares.</p><p><blockquote>经纪公司Cowen&amp;Company写道：“路易威登和迪奥在各地区卓越的品牌定位以及当地奢侈品消费者持续的需求让我们感到鼓舞。”该公司对LVMH股票维持‘跑赢大盘’评级。</blockquote></p><p> The luxury goods industry is recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which shut down global travel and temporarily closed stores, and LVMH has benefited more than most, using its heft to spend on marketing and social media campaigns when some of its smaller rivals are still struggling to get back on their feet.</p><p><blockquote>奢侈品行业正在从COVID-19危机中复苏，这场危机导致全球旅行关闭并暂时关闭了商店，而LVMH比大多数公司受益更多，当一些规模较小的竞争对手仍在努力重新站起来时，它利用自己的影响力在营销和社交媒体活动上投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Overall sales at LVMH, which also owns champagne and cosmetics labels, rose by 84% year-on-year in the second quarter on a like-for-like basis, which strips out currency swings, and stood at 14.7 billion euros ($17.33 billion).</p><p><blockquote>LVMH还拥有香槟和化妆品品牌，剔除汇率波动因素后，第二季度整体销售额同比增长84%，达到147亿欧元（173.3亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Operating profit in the first six months of this year more than quadrupled compared with a year ago, beating expectations among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>今年前六个月的营业利润比去年同期增长了四倍多，超出了路孚特调查的分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “We think much of this will be repeated in H2 in the absence of a sector momentum shift: as long as the sector performs, LVMH will perform better,” wrote brokerage Jefferies, which kept a ‘buy’ rating on LVMH shares.</p><p><blockquote>券商杰富瑞(Jefferies)写道：“我们认为，在行业势头没有转变的情况下，这种情况将在下半年重演：只要该行业表现良好，LVMH就会表现更好。”该公司维持对LVMH股票的‘买入’评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/lvmh-results/lvmh-shares-edge-higher-as-sales-and-profits-rise-idUSFWN2P30JJ\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LB":"LandBridge Co. LLC"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/lvmh-results/lvmh-shares-edge-higher-as-sales-and-profits-rise-idUSFWN2P30JJ","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175986847","content_text":"PARIS (Reuters) - LVMH’s shares eged higher on Tuesday after the world’s biggest luxury goods group posted higher sales and profits, driven by surging sales of fashion lines and handbags by Dior, Fendi and Louis Vuitton.\nLVMH shares were up 0.3% in early session trading.\n“We are encouraged by Louis Vuitton and Dior’s exceptional brand positioning across regions and sustained local luxury consumer demand,” wrote brokerage Cowen & Company, which kept an ‘outperform’ rating on LVMH shares.\nThe luxury goods industry is recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which shut down global travel and temporarily closed stores, and LVMH has benefited more than most, using its heft to spend on marketing and social media campaigns when some of its smaller rivals are still struggling to get back on their feet.\nOverall sales at LVMH, which also owns champagne and cosmetics labels, rose by 84% year-on-year in the second quarter on a like-for-like basis, which strips out currency swings, and stood at 14.7 billion euros ($17.33 billion).\nOperating profit in the first six months of this year more than quadrupled compared with a year ago, beating expectations among analysts polled by Refinitiv.\n“We think much of this will be repeated in H2 in the absence of a sector momentum shift: as long as the sector performs, LVMH will perform better,” wrote brokerage Jefferies, which kept a ‘buy’ rating on LVMH shares.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809278962,"gmtCreate":1627375253956,"gmtModify":1633765598904,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another blood bath!&nbsp;","listText":"Another blood bath!&nbsp;","text":"Another blood bath!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809278962","repostId":"1142907091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142907091","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627373467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142907091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 16:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中概股盘前恢复下行</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142907091","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward in premarket trading.Bilibili and NetEase fell 7%,DiDi G","content":"<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward&nbsp;in premarket trading.Bilibili&nbsp;and&nbsp;NetEase&nbsp;fell&nbsp;7%,DiDi Global,JD.com&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pinduoduo&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%,Baidu&nbsp;fell&nbsp;5%,Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;4%,Alibaba,Nio&nbsp;and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;3%.</p><p><blockquote>热点中概股盘前恢复下行，哔哩哔哩、网易跌7%，滴滴全球、京东、拼多多跌6%，百度跌5%，小鹏汽车跌4%，阿里巴巴-SW、蔚来、理想汽车跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d3f423af5595483b1ce34aa42d60cc7\" tg-width=\"355\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中概股盘前恢复下行</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中概股盘前恢复下行</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward&nbsp;in premarket trading.Bilibili&nbsp;and&nbsp;NetEase&nbsp;fell&nbsp;7%,DiDi Global,JD.com&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pinduoduo&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%,Baidu&nbsp;fell&nbsp;5%,Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;4%,Alibaba,Nio&nbsp;and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;3%.</p><p><blockquote>热点中概股盘前恢复下行，哔哩哔哩、网易跌7%，滴滴全球、京东、拼多多跌6%，百度跌5%，小鹏汽车跌4%，阿里巴巴-SW、蔚来、理想汽车跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d3f423af5595483b1ce34aa42d60cc7\" tg-width=\"355\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BIDU":"百度","BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142907091","content_text":"Hot Chinese concept stocks resumed downward in premarket trading.Bilibili and NetEase fell 7%,DiDi Global,JD.com and Pinduoduo fell 6%,Baidu fell 5%,Xpeng Motors fell 4%,Alibaba,Nio and Li Auto fell 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"LI":0.9,"JD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809592134,"gmtCreate":1627376795928,"gmtModify":1633765586506,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809592134","repostId":"1154449552","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813819894,"gmtCreate":1630167062418,"gmtModify":1704956693594,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to some challenge!&nbsp;","listText":"Time to some challenge!&nbsp;","text":"Time to some challenge!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813819894","repostId":"2162907389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177819608,"gmtCreate":1627194112504,"gmtModify":1633767239106,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reacted too slowly","listText":"Reacted too slowly","text":"Reacted too slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177819608","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896868203,"gmtCreate":1628569899302,"gmtModify":1631891285436,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a surprise!&nbsp;","listText":"Not a surprise!&nbsp;","text":"Not a surprise!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896868203","repostId":"1181756731","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801981924,"gmtCreate":1627479524768,"gmtModify":1631891285454,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801981924","repostId":"1102507343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173688356,"gmtCreate":1626657482975,"gmtModify":1633925205808,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;等待","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;等待","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ 等待","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6caad35ceab3dde82883e16986b9d139","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173688356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170751922,"gmtCreate":1626454422266,"gmtModify":1633926574154,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not for the faint hearted!&nbsp;","listText":"Not for the faint hearted!&nbsp;","text":"Not for the faint hearted!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170751922","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887355448,"gmtCreate":1631981462884,"gmtModify":1632804972144,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887355448","repostId":"2168757119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803214280,"gmtCreate":1627441195740,"gmtModify":1631891285452,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay calm people!&nbsp;","listText":"Stay calm people!&nbsp;","text":"Stay calm people!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803214280","repostId":"2154943718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177839714,"gmtCreate":1627193351038,"gmtModify":1633767248000,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More install for the year!&nbsp;","listText":"More install for the year!&nbsp;","text":"More install for the year!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177839714","repostId":"1118041582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118041582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627175995,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118041582?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118041582","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs schedul","content":"<p>After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在又一周创纪录的活动之后，IPO市场预计将保持火热，未来一周将有17起IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Long-awaited retail brokerage&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets</b>(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.</p><p><blockquote>期待已久的零售经纪业务<b>罗宾汉市场</b>(HOOD)计划以368亿美元的市值筹集22亿美元。该公司提供无佣金零售经纪平台，月活跃用户数超过1800万。尽管2021年第一季度的收入实现了三位数的增长，但该平台依赖于交易量，最近的零售交易热潮可能难以为继。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle battery maker&nbsp;<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.</p><p><blockquote>汽车电池制造商<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY)计划以97亿美元的市值筹集17亿美元。该公司在全球范围内生产低压汽车电池，并表示其在美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区拥有第一的市场地位。在息税前利润的基础上，Clarios的收入增长在2020财年因新冠疫情而转为负值后，在2021财年上半年加速。</blockquote></p><p> Altice’s ad-tech platform&nbsp;<b>Teads</b>(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.</p><p><blockquote>Altice的广告技术平台<b>Teads</b>(TEAD)计划以46亿美元的市值筹集7.51亿美元。Teads为广告商和出版商运营一个基于云的程序化数字广告平台。Teads盈利稳健增长，为约3,100家出版商提供货币化服务。</blockquote></p><p> Education software provider&nbsp;<b>PowerSchool Holdings</b>(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>教育软件提供商<b>动力学校控股</b>(PWSC)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集7.5亿美元。该公司为教师提供了一个教育平台，用于管理课堂活动，如收集作业和评分作业。PowerSchool为全球90多个国家的12,000多名客户提供服务，在2021年第一季度实现了净利润盈利。</blockquote></p><p> After withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,<b>Dole</b>(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.</p><p><blockquote>在2018年撤回IPO尝试后，<b>多尔</b>（都乐）计划以20亿美元的市值筹集5.59亿美元。这家领先的水果和蔬菜公司向全球80多个国家提供来自30多个国家的300多种产品。都乐增长缓慢且盈利，其产品是与Total Product合并时推出的。</blockquote></p><p> Language learning platform&nbsp;<b>Duolingo</b>(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>语言学习平台<b>多邻国</b>(DUOL)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。多邻国为超过3亿用户提供了一个学习30多种新语言的在线平台。受益于与新冠疫情相关的需求增长，多邻国在2020年实现了三位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Traeger</b>(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>特雷格</b>（库克）计划以22亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家公司生产具有技术功能的优质后院木质颗粒烤架，允许业主通过Traeger应用程序对他们的烤架进行编程、监控和控制。Traeger是木质颗粒烤架的类别领导者，从2017年到2020年，收入以28%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israeli anti-fraud firm&nbsp;<b>Riskified</b>(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>以色列反欺诈公司<b>风险化</b>(RSKD)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集3.33亿美元。这家公司为企业提供电子商务欺诈保护。Riskified不断增长但尚未盈利，其自由现金流在2021年第一季度上转为正值。</blockquote></p><p> Financial software provider&nbsp;<b>MeridianLink</b>(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.</p><p><blockquote>财务软件提供商<b>子午线链接</b>(MLNK)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。MeridianLink为中端市场社区银行和信用合作社提供基于云的数字借贷和开户平台。尽管业务具有周期性，但由于强劲的抵押贷款活动，该公司在2020财年实现了两位数的有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> Smart home integration system&nbsp;<b>Snap One Holdings</b>(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>智能家居集成系统<b>Snap一号控股</b>(SNPO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2.7亿美元。该公司为超过16,000家专业集成商提供智能家居技术产品。Snap一号表现出稳健的增长，并在2021年第一季度按息税前利润计算实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Specialty funding solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Preston Hollow Community Capital</b>(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.</p><p><blockquote>专业融资解决方案提供商<b>普雷斯顿霍洛社区资本</b>(PHCC)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。该公司是为对美国当地社区具有重大社会和经济重要性的项目提供专业影响力融资解决方案的市场领导者。它服务于各种领域，包括基础设施、教育、医疗保健和住房。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine biotech&nbsp;<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗生物技术<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX)计划以5.9亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术最初专注于利用其病毒样颗粒平台技术开发针对传染性呼吸道疾病的疫苗。其最先进的候选药物目前正处于新型冠状病毒病的1/2期试验中。</blockquote></p><p> Cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>癌症生物技术<b>坎德尔治疗公司</b>(CADL)计划以3.98亿美元的市值筹集8500万美元。Candel最先进的候选药物目前正在与前药伐昔洛韦联合治疗新诊断的中度或高风险进展的局限性前列腺癌的3期试验中。该公司预计将在2024年完成2021年第三季度的注册并公布最终数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rare disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Rallybio</b>(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.</p><p><blockquote>罕见病生物技术<b>拉利比奥</b>(RLYB)计划以4.65亿美元的市值筹集8100万美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术正在开发罕见疾病的抗体疗法。其主导项目目前正在1/2期试验中评估治疗胎儿和新生儿同种免疫性血小板减少症。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.</p><p><blockquote><b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以5.06亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。该公司目前正在开展肿瘤学、纤维化、传染病和炎症方面的临床前项目，这些项目已直接或间接获得布朗大学、斯坦福大学和罗德岛医院的许可。</blockquote></p><p> After postponing in November 2020,<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.</p><p><blockquote>2020年11月延期后，<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB)计划以2.15亿美元的市值筹集4400万美元。这家1期生物技术公司正在开发同种异体γ-δ T细胞疗法来治疗实体瘤。尽管γ-δ T细胞有可能治疗实体瘤，但该公司还处于非常早期的阶段，并且仅为有限数量的患者提供了剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Female cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Context Therapeutics</b>(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.</p><p><blockquote>女性癌症生物技术<b>情境疗法</b>(CNTX)计划以9300万美元的市值筹集2000万美元。背景是开发女性癌症的治疗方法，如乳腺癌、卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌。该公司的主要候选药物目前正处于卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌的2期试验中，预计将于21年下半年和22年上半年获得初步结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b38a8af5f92621b2633830553616b5d\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faec597a337345b21c846808295821d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021cc62ff4eaabd0b6a7dee91fc0d63e\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年7月22日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.0%，而标普500上涨16.3%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌3.0%，而ACWX指数上涨8.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 09:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在又一周创纪录的活动之后，IPO市场预计将保持火热，未来一周将有17起IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Long-awaited retail brokerage&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets</b>(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.</p><p><blockquote>期待已久的零售经纪业务<b>罗宾汉市场</b>(HOOD)计划以368亿美元的市值筹集22亿美元。该公司提供无佣金零售经纪平台，月活跃用户数超过1800万。尽管2021年第一季度的收入实现了三位数的增长，但该平台依赖于交易量，最近的零售交易热潮可能难以为继。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle battery maker&nbsp;<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.</p><p><blockquote>汽车电池制造商<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY)计划以97亿美元的市值筹集17亿美元。该公司在全球范围内生产低压汽车电池，并表示其在美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区拥有第一的市场地位。在息税前利润的基础上，Clarios的收入增长在2020财年因新冠疫情而转为负值后，在2021财年上半年加速。</blockquote></p><p> Altice’s ad-tech platform&nbsp;<b>Teads</b>(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.</p><p><blockquote>Altice的广告技术平台<b>Teads</b>(TEAD)计划以46亿美元的市值筹集7.51亿美元。Teads为广告商和出版商运营一个基于云的程序化数字广告平台。Teads盈利稳健增长，为约3,100家出版商提供货币化服务。</blockquote></p><p> Education software provider&nbsp;<b>PowerSchool Holdings</b>(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>教育软件提供商<b>动力学校控股</b>(PWSC)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集7.5亿美元。该公司为教师提供了一个教育平台，用于管理课堂活动，如收集作业和评分作业。PowerSchool为全球90多个国家的12,000多名客户提供服务，在2021年第一季度实现了净利润盈利。</blockquote></p><p> After withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,<b>Dole</b>(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.</p><p><blockquote>在2018年撤回IPO尝试后，<b>多尔</b>（都乐）计划以20亿美元的市值筹集5.59亿美元。这家领先的水果和蔬菜公司向全球80多个国家提供来自30多个国家的300多种产品。都乐增长缓慢且盈利，其产品是与Total Product合并时推出的。</blockquote></p><p> Language learning platform&nbsp;<b>Duolingo</b>(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>语言学习平台<b>多邻国</b>(DUOL)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。多邻国为超过3亿用户提供了一个学习30多种新语言的在线平台。受益于与新冠疫情相关的需求增长，多邻国在2020年实现了三位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Traeger</b>(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>特雷格</b>（库克）计划以22亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家公司生产具有技术功能的优质后院木质颗粒烤架，允许业主通过Traeger应用程序对他们的烤架进行编程、监控和控制。Traeger是木质颗粒烤架的类别领导者，从2017年到2020年，收入以28%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israeli anti-fraud firm&nbsp;<b>Riskified</b>(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>以色列反欺诈公司<b>风险化</b>(RSKD)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集3.33亿美元。这家公司为企业提供电子商务欺诈保护。Riskified不断增长但尚未盈利，其自由现金流在2021年第一季度上转为正值。</blockquote></p><p> Financial software provider&nbsp;<b>MeridianLink</b>(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.</p><p><blockquote>财务软件提供商<b>子午线链接</b>(MLNK)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。MeridianLink为中端市场社区银行和信用合作社提供基于云的数字借贷和开户平台。尽管业务具有周期性，但由于强劲的抵押贷款活动，该公司在2020财年实现了两位数的有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> Smart home integration system&nbsp;<b>Snap One Holdings</b>(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>智能家居集成系统<b>Snap一号控股</b>(SNPO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2.7亿美元。该公司为超过16,000家专业集成商提供智能家居技术产品。Snap一号表现出稳健的增长，并在2021年第一季度按息税前利润计算实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Specialty funding solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Preston Hollow Community Capital</b>(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.</p><p><blockquote>专业融资解决方案提供商<b>普雷斯顿霍洛社区资本</b>(PHCC)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。该公司是为对美国当地社区具有重大社会和经济重要性的项目提供专业影响力融资解决方案的市场领导者。它服务于各种领域，包括基础设施、教育、医疗保健和住房。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine biotech&nbsp;<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗生物技术<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX)计划以5.9亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术最初专注于利用其病毒样颗粒平台技术开发针对传染性呼吸道疾病的疫苗。其最先进的候选药物目前正处于新型冠状病毒病的1/2期试验中。</blockquote></p><p> Cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>癌症生物技术<b>坎德尔治疗公司</b>(CADL)计划以3.98亿美元的市值筹集8500万美元。Candel最先进的候选药物目前正在与前药伐昔洛韦联合治疗新诊断的中度或高风险进展的局限性前列腺癌的3期试验中。该公司预计将在2024年完成2021年第三季度的注册并公布最终数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rare disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Rallybio</b>(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.</p><p><blockquote>罕见病生物技术<b>拉利比奥</b>(RLYB)计划以4.65亿美元的市值筹集8100万美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术正在开发罕见疾病的抗体疗法。其主导项目目前正在1/2期试验中评估治疗胎儿和新生儿同种免疫性血小板减少症。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.</p><p><blockquote><b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以5.06亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。该公司目前正在开展肿瘤学、纤维化、传染病和炎症方面的临床前项目，这些项目已直接或间接获得布朗大学、斯坦福大学和罗德岛医院的许可。</blockquote></p><p> After postponing in November 2020,<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.</p><p><blockquote>2020年11月延期后，<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB)计划以2.15亿美元的市值筹集4400万美元。这家1期生物技术公司正在开发同种异体γ-δ T细胞疗法来治疗实体瘤。尽管γ-δ T细胞有可能治疗实体瘤，但该公司还处于非常早期的阶段，并且仅为有限数量的患者提供了剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Female cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Context Therapeutics</b>(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.</p><p><blockquote>女性癌症生物技术<b>情境疗法</b>(CNTX)计划以9300万美元的市值筹集2000万美元。背景是开发女性癌症的治疗方法，如乳腺癌、卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌。该公司的主要候选药物目前正处于卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌的2期试验中，预计将于21年下半年和22年上半年获得初步结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b38a8af5f92621b2633830553616b5d\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faec597a337345b21c846808295821d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021cc62ff4eaabd0b6a7dee91fc0d63e\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年7月22日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.0%，而标普500上涨16.3%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌3.0%，而ACWX指数上涨8.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/84600/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Robinhood%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-deal-headlines-a-17-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COOK":"Traeger Inc. (TGPX Holdings I LLC)",".DJI":"道琼斯","RSKD":"Riskified Ltd.","CADLF":"CADELER AS","DOLE":"都乐食品",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PWSC":"PowerSchool Holdings, Inc.","TEAD":"Teads Holding","HOOD":"Robinhood","DUOL":"多邻国","FEOVF":"Oceanic Iron Ore Corp.","SNPO":"Snap One Holdings Corp.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CNTX":"Context Therapeutics Inc.","INAB":"IN8bio, Inc.","RLYB":"Rallybio Corp.","ICVX":"Icosavax, Inc.","MLNK":"MeridianLink, Inc. (ex-Project Angel Parent, LLC)"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/84600/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Robinhood%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-deal-headlines-a-17-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118041582","content_text":"After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.\nLong-awaited retail brokerage Robinhood Markets(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.\nVehicle battery maker Clarios International(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.\nAltice’s ad-tech platform Teads(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.\nEducation software provider PowerSchool Holdings(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.\nAfter withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,Dole(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.\nLanguage learning platform Duolingo(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.\nTraeger(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.\nIsraeli anti-fraud firm Riskified(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.\nFinancial software provider MeridianLink(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.\nSmart home integration system Snap One Holdings(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.\nSpecialty funding solutions provider Preston Hollow Community Capital(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.\nVaccine biotech Icosavax(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.\nCancer biotech Candel Therapeutics(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.\nRare disease biotech Rallybio(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.\nOcean Biomedical(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.\nAfter postponing in November 2020,IN8bio(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.\nFemale cancer biotech Context Therapeutics(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUOL":0.9,"CADLF":0.9,"RSKD":0.9,"FEOVF":0.9,"SNPO":0.9,"RLYB":0.9,"DOLE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ICVX":0.9,"PWSC":0.9,"PHCC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"COOK":0.9,"CNTX":0.9,"INAB":0.9,"BTRY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HOOD":0.9,"MLNK":0.9,"TEAD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177830373,"gmtCreate":1627193215692,"gmtModify":1633767249754,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177830373","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171196875,"gmtCreate":1626710605897,"gmtModify":1633924707687,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A whole new world!&nbsp;","listText":"A whole new world!&nbsp;","text":"A whole new world!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171196875","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171073430,"gmtCreate":1626699826020,"gmtModify":1633924847869,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Turbulent","listText":"Turbulent","text":"Turbulent","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171073430","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803212015,"gmtCreate":1627441017037,"gmtModify":1631891285455,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803212015","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175413435,"gmtCreate":1627046164727,"gmtModify":1633768496832,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Blood bath","listText":"Blood bath","text":"Blood bath","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175413435","repostId":"1193325824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172356250,"gmtCreate":1626939651170,"gmtModify":1633769553760,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;go go go&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;go go go&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08f33078bf98827645845e5e216a71b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172356250","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821755001,"gmtCreate":1633796446267,"gmtModify":1633796446267,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Its not there yet!&nbsp;","listText":"Its not there yet!&nbsp;","text":"Its not there yet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821755001","repostId":"1115058296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115058296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115058296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115058296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might","content":"<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CRM":"赛富时","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis.  A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801367461,"gmtCreate":1627483531653,"gmtModify":1631891285447,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Latest[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Latest[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801367461","repostId":"2154360923","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178836113,"gmtCreate":1626796003432,"gmtModify":1633770929621,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178836113","repostId":"2152657163","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178831498,"gmtCreate":1626795912914,"gmtModify":1633770930640,"author":{"id":"3583728210057163","authorId":"3583728210057163","name":"chanch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f55a76964675aa242f7e754a1396b78","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583728210057163","idStr":"3583728210057163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recovering&nbsp;","listText":"Recovering&nbsp;","text":"Recovering","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178831498","repostId":"1127649148","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127649148","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626793055,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127649148?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock main indexes rose more than 1%<blockquote>美股主要指数涨超1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127649148","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 20) U.S. stock main indexes rose more than 1% in morning trading.","content":"<p>(July 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock main&nbsp;indexes rose more than 1%&nbsp;in morning trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）美国。股票主要指数早盘上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e022664a53db67f658ba55350af6aaa5\" tg-width=\"1444\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe4032e63f9a83cfb2f82950a046ce\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"894\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7704cab75fd884a262bc6756d1f6927a\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"927\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7078c2484f2c1381d606bc832a00fa93\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"922\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock main indexes rose more than 1%<blockquote>美股主要指数涨超1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 22:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock main&nbsp;indexes rose more than 1%&nbsp;in morning trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）美国。股票主要指数早盘上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e022664a53db67f658ba55350af6aaa5\" tg-width=\"1444\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe4032e63f9a83cfb2f82950a046ce\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"894\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7704cab75fd884a262bc6756d1f6927a\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"927\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7078c2484f2c1381d606bc832a00fa93\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"922\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127649148","content_text":"(July 20) U.S. stock main indexes rose more than 1% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}