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2021-07-09

Pls like thanks!

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2021-07-09

Interesting article

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2021-07-09

Pls like thanks!

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2021-07-19

Gello

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2021-07-18

Hello

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2021-07-11

Interesting

The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>

2021-07-08

That is indeed true

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2021-07-09

Interesting

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2021-07-07

Impressive

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2021-07-16

Oh no...

JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her "Bubble-Like" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>

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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome meme stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>一些模因股票在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 16:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July&nbsp;20&nbsp;)&nbsp;Some&nbsp;meme&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> was&nbsp;up&nbsp;1.5%,&nbsp;AMC strikes deal that will see it reopen two of top-grossing movie theaters in Los Angeles.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）部分meme股票在盘前交易中上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>AMC达成协议，重新开放洛杉矶两家票房最高的电影院。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e66ca1367712d869d8da9ae95505b37\" tg-width=\"306\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172880433","content_text":"(July 20 ) Some meme stocks rose in premarket trading. AMC Entertainment was up 1.5%, AMC strikes deal that will see it reopen two of top-grossing movie theaters in Los 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no...&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no...&nbsp;","text":"Oh no...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170199321","repostId":"1123074557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123074557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626403275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123074557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 10:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123074557","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss wa","content":"<p>Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,<i>Cathie Wood.</i></p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，摩根大通的不和主要是与比特币的不和，每隔一天就会定期发布一篇又一篇热门文章（因为它正在悄悄地为自己最近推出的富有客户基金积累加密货币）。但现在，这家美国最大的银行一直疯狂地坚持其最喜欢的做法，即以牺牲成长型股票为代价购买周期性和价值型股票——这种交易最近几周适得其反——正在升级对科技股的讨伐，追求最新科技泡沫的典型儿童，或者更确切地说是典型女性，<i>凯西·伍德。</i></blockquote></p><p> In a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.</p><p><blockquote>在摩根大通今天上午发布的一份报告中，股票衍生品策略师Shawn Quigg表示，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF ARKK正在表现出2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前成长型基金中出现的许多“泡沫状特征”，投资者应该通过购买Ark基金的看跌期权来对冲类似的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Taking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that<i>\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</i><i><b>The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>摩根大通——我们怀疑它是凯西的主要经纪人——从其最喜欢的抨击比特币的消遣中抽出宝贵的时间写道<i>“今年迄今为止，高增长子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金呈现出类似泡沫的周期（图1），类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</i><i><b>ARK Innovation ETF表现出许多这些特征，可能会吸引投资者陷入牛市陷阱。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ce5b2045dab9414160f919d7a55818\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"439\">JPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:</p><p><blockquote>抛开摩根大通与凯西的争执不谈，我们在奎格的报告中发现最引人注目的是，这是这家美国最大的银行首次公开承认“重大财政和货币刺激”导致了类似于2000年目睹的“泡沫状”活动。以下是奎格如何阐述他关于“驾驭泡沫”的论文，最终做空ARKK：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets<b>, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</b></li>  <li>The ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.</li>  <li>However, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.</li>  <li>A technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.</li> </ul> Combining these four catalysts is how the<b>\"bull trap\"</b>was set according to JPM.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>e在重大财政和货币刺激措施以及企业和消费者资产负债表流动性充足的帮助下，年初至今高增长股票和子行业的过度投机<b>导致一些基于增长的基金表现出类似泡沫的周期，类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</b></li><li>ARKK 2020-21年从低谷到峰值385%的运行符合我们之前描述为泡沫的标准，是电动汽车/绿色科技（例如TSLA）、加密货币（例如COIN、SQ）、在家工作（例如TDOC、ROKU、ZM）和大流行生物技术（例如CRSP）股票/子行业的直接受益者。</li><li>然而，在2月份见顶后，随着零售/Reddit狂热、在家工作和加密货币交易（除其他外）动摇，ARKK股价在短短几个月（5月）内跌破关键技术支撑位（例如50、100、200日移动平均线）。</li><li>美国国债收益率技术性下跌和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧使得高科技增长和ARKK反弹。</li></ul>将这四种催化剂结合起来就是<b>“公牛陷阱”</b>是根据JPM设置的。</blockquote></p><p> But sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"</p><p><blockquote>但坚持该行的政党路线，即“在经济持续重新开放的情况下，支持周期性资产/价值型资产的优异表现，以及下半年国债收益率的预期回升”，该行表示，投资者现在应该开始退出“牛市陷阱”即将到来的“收益率上升和经济增长动力的转变符合我们基于价值的观点，可能会引发ARKK股票的牛市陷阱逆转”。</blockquote></p><p> What specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:</p><p><blockquote>什么具体事件会引发ARKK股票的“投降”？马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)数月来一直预测的债券收益率将出现通货再膨胀式的跃升——即使收益率暴跌——即：</blockquote></p><p>   As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).    <b>A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e217a9277d4bfe254c2b441415631b6d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"362\">JPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&amp;P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所指出的，我们认为美国国债收益率最近的走势本质上是技术性的，并不表明投资者对复苏健康状况或通胀前景减弱的更广泛担忧。支持这一点的是10年期TIPS盈亏平衡没有缩减（图3）、持续高于预期的通胀读数（例如CPI、PPI、管理层评论）以及最近弱于预期的30年期国债拍卖（此处）。<b>除了大型主要科技股持续跑赢颠覆性科技股（图4）之外，迫在眉睫的收益率上升可能会成为加速ARKK股价下跌的催化剂，并迫使ARKK进入投降阶段。</b>当然，摩根大通是正确的：如果收益率上升确实“迫在眉睫”，那么不仅是ARKK，所有高久期股票都将遭受重创，从FAAMGs开始，此举将转化为全市场的溃败（奇怪的是，我们没有看到摩根大通下调年终标准普尔预测）。问题是，收益率是否以及何时会再次飙升，以及在美联储现在应该“超越通胀担忧”并且不会让利率上升太多的情况下，什么会引发这一举措，特别是在增长担忧的情况下。蔓延的德尔塔变异毒株主导了交易讨论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"</p><p><blockquote>假设读者同意摩根大通策略师的观点，即收益率即将再次飙升，那么他们应该如何应对ARKK即将到来的疲软？正如Quigg所解释的那样，“目前3M 90%的隐含波动率约为39%，看起来很便宜，去年排名第14%。鉴于ARKK的历史有限，其大部分回报和波动性都发生在去年，我们发现利用去年作为一个公平的可比衡量标准，特别是如果该股可能准备进入更广泛的投降阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, JPMorgan recommends \"<i>investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，摩根大通建议“<i>尽管股价有可能进入更广泛的投降阶段，但投资者仍利用接近年度低点的隐含波动率（参考价格为118.17美元）购买ARKK 105年10月执行看跌期权。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,<i>Cathie Wood.</i></p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，摩根大通的不和主要是与比特币的不和，每隔一天就会定期发布一篇又一篇热门文章（因为它正在悄悄地为自己最近推出的富有客户基金积累加密货币）。但现在，这家美国最大的银行一直疯狂地坚持其最喜欢的做法，即以牺牲成长型股票为代价购买周期性和价值型股票——这种交易最近几周适得其反——正在升级对科技股的讨伐，追求最新科技泡沫的典型儿童，或者更确切地说是典型女性，<i>凯西·伍德。</i></blockquote></p><p> In a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.</p><p><blockquote>在摩根大通今天上午发布的一份报告中，股票衍生品策略师Shawn Quigg表示，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF ARKK正在表现出2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前成长型基金中出现的许多“泡沫状特征”，投资者应该通过购买Ark基金的看跌期权来对冲类似的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Taking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that<i>\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</i><i><b>The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>摩根大通——我们怀疑它是凯西的主要经纪人——从其最喜欢的抨击比特币的消遣中抽出宝贵的时间写道<i>“今年迄今为止，高增长子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金呈现出类似泡沫的周期（图1），类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</i><i><b>ARK Innovation ETF表现出许多这些特征，可能会吸引投资者陷入牛市陷阱。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ce5b2045dab9414160f919d7a55818\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"439\">JPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:</p><p><blockquote>抛开摩根大通与凯西的争执不谈，我们在奎格的报告中发现最引人注目的是，这是这家美国最大的银行首次公开承认“重大财政和货币刺激”导致了类似于2000年目睹的“泡沫状”活动。以下是奎格如何阐述他关于“驾驭泡沫”的论文，最终做空ARKK：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets<b>, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</b></li>  <li>The ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.</li>  <li>However, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.</li>  <li>A technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.</li> </ul> Combining these four catalysts is how the<b>\"bull trap\"</b>was set according to JPM.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>e在重大财政和货币刺激措施以及企业和消费者资产负债表流动性充足的帮助下，年初至今高增长股票和子行业的过度投机<b>导致一些基于增长的基金表现出类似泡沫的周期，类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</b></li><li>ARKK 2020-21年从低谷到峰值385%的运行符合我们之前描述为泡沫的标准，是电动汽车/绿色科技（例如TSLA）、加密货币（例如COIN、SQ）、在家工作（例如TDOC、ROKU、ZM）和大流行生物技术（例如CRSP）股票/子行业的直接受益者。</li><li>然而，在2月份见顶后，随着零售/Reddit狂热、在家工作和加密货币交易（除其他外）动摇，ARKK股价在短短几个月（5月）内跌破关键技术支撑位（例如50、100、200日移动平均线）。</li><li>美国国债收益率技术性下跌和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧使得高科技增长和ARKK反弹。</li></ul>将这四种催化剂结合起来就是<b>“公牛陷阱”</b>是根据JPM设置的。</blockquote></p><p> But sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"</p><p><blockquote>但坚持该行的政党路线，即“在经济持续重新开放的情况下，支持周期性资产/价值型资产的优异表现，以及下半年国债收益率的预期回升”，该行表示，投资者现在应该开始退出“牛市陷阱”即将到来的“收益率上升和经济增长动力的转变符合我们基于价值的观点，可能会引发ARKK股票的牛市陷阱逆转”。</blockquote></p><p> What specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:</p><p><blockquote>什么具体事件会引发ARKK股票的“投降”？马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)数月来一直预测的债券收益率将出现通货再膨胀式的跃升——即使收益率暴跌——即：</blockquote></p><p>   As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).    <b>A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e217a9277d4bfe254c2b441415631b6d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"362\">JPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&amp;P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所指出的，我们认为美国国债收益率最近的走势本质上是技术性的，并不表明投资者对复苏健康状况或通胀前景减弱的更广泛担忧。支持这一点的是10年期TIPS盈亏平衡没有缩减（图3）、持续高于预期的通胀读数（例如CPI、PPI、管理层评论）以及最近弱于预期的30年期国债拍卖（此处）。<b>除了大型主要科技股持续跑赢颠覆性科技股（图4）之外，迫在眉睫的收益率上升可能会成为加速ARKK股价下跌的催化剂，并迫使ARKK进入投降阶段。</b>当然，摩根大通是正确的：如果收益率上升确实“迫在眉睫”，那么不仅是ARKK，所有高久期股票都将遭受重创，从FAAMGs开始，此举将转化为全市场的溃败（奇怪的是，我们没有看到摩根大通下调年终标准普尔预测）。问题是，收益率是否以及何时会再次飙升，以及在美联储现在应该“超越通胀担忧”并且不会让利率上升太多的情况下，什么会引发这一举措，特别是在增长担忧的情况下。蔓延的德尔塔变异毒株主导了交易讨论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"</p><p><blockquote>假设读者同意摩根大通策略师的观点，即收益率即将再次飙升，那么他们应该如何应对ARKK即将到来的疲软？正如Quigg所解释的那样，“目前3M 90%的隐含波动率约为39%，看起来很便宜，去年排名第14%。鉴于ARKK的历史有限，其大部分回报和波动性都发生在去年，我们发现利用去年作为一个公平的可比衡量标准，特别是如果该股可能准备进入更广泛的投降阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, JPMorgan recommends \"<i>investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，摩根大通建议“<i>尽管股价有可能进入更广泛的投降阶段，但投资者仍利用接近年度低点的隐含波动率（参考价格为118.17美元）购买ARKK 105年10月执行看跌期权。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-goes-after-cathie-wood-urges-buying-puts-her-bubble-ark-fund\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-goes-after-cathie-wood-urges-buying-puts-her-bubble-ark-fund","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123074557","content_text":"Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,Cathie Wood.\nIn a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.\nTaking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"\nJPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:\n\nEexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).\nThe ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.\nHowever, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.\nA technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.\n\nCombining these four catalysts is how the\"bull trap\"was set according to JPM.\nBut sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"\nWhat specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:\n\n As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).\n\n\nA looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.\n\nJPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.\nAssuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"\nAs a result, JPMorgan recommends \"investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKX":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147832106,"gmtCreate":1626348585005,"gmtModify":1631891173145,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147832106","repostId":"2151251345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151251345","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1626343025,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151251345?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UnitedHealth Group Q2 EPS $4.70 Beats $4.43 Estimate, Sales $71.30B Beat $69.45B Estimate<blockquote>联合健康集团第二季度EPS$4.70超出预期$4.43，销售额$71.30 B超出预期$69.45 B</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151251345","media":"Benzinga","summary":"UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) reported quarterly earnings of $4.70 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.43 by 6.09 percent. This is a 33.99 percent decrease over earnings of $7.12 per share from the","content":"<p>UnitedHealth Group Inc beat quarterly profit estimates and raised its full-year earnings target on Thursday, as the largest U.S. health insurer reported strong growth in its Optum unit that manages drug benefits.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的健康保险公司联合健康集团(UnitedHealth Group Inc)周四公布其管理药品福利的Optum部门强劲增长，超出了季度利润预期，并上调了全年盈利目标。</blockquote></p><p> The industry bellwether raised its full-year profit target for the second time this year, and now expects adjusted earnings of $18.30 to $18.80 per share in 2021, compared with its previous forecast of $18.10 to $18.60.</p><p><blockquote>这家行业领头羊今年第二次上调全年利润目标，目前预计2021年调整后每股收益为18.30美元至18.80美元，此前预期为18.10美元至18.60美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter ended June 30, the company reported a medical loss ratio - the percentage of collected premiums spent on medical services - of 82.8%, compared with 70.2% a year earlier, when patients put off non-urgent care due to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>截至6月30日的季度，该公司报告的医疗损失率（收取的保费用于医疗服务的百分比）为82.8%，而去年同期为70.2%，当时患者因COVID-19而推迟了非紧急护理-19大流行。</blockquote></p><p> Nearly half of all Americans have been fully vaccinated according to latest government data and daily new COVID-19 cases ebbed in May and June, encouraging people to return to doctors' offices for routine, non-elective medical care.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新的政府数据，近一半的美国人已完全接种疫苗，5月和6月每日新增COVID-19病例有所减少，这鼓励人们返回医生办公室接受常规的非选择性医疗护理。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue from UnitedHealth's Optum unit, which manages drug benefits and offers healthcare data analytics services, rose 17.2% to $38.3 billion from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>UnitedHealth旗下Optum部门负责管理药物福利并提供医疗保健数据分析服务，其收入同比增长17.2%，达到383亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $4.70 per share, beating estimates of $4.43 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，联合健康报告调整后每股收益为4.70美元，超出预期的每股4.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company has beaten Wall Street's expectations for earnings per share for at least the last eight quarters.</p><p><blockquote>该公司至少在过去八个季度的每股收益超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UnitedHealth Group Q2 EPS $4.70 Beats $4.43 Estimate, Sales $71.30B Beat $69.45B Estimate<blockquote>联合健康集团第二季度EPS$4.70超出预期$4.43，销售额$71.30 B超出预期$69.45 B</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnitedHealth Group Q2 EPS $4.70 Beats $4.43 Estimate, Sales $71.30B Beat $69.45B Estimate<blockquote>联合健康集团第二季度EPS$4.70超出预期$4.43，销售额$71.30 B超出预期$69.45 B</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 17:57</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>UnitedHealth Group Inc beat quarterly profit estimates and raised its full-year earnings target on Thursday, as the largest U.S. health insurer reported strong growth in its Optum unit that manages drug benefits.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的健康保险公司联合健康集团(UnitedHealth Group Inc)周四公布其管理药品福利的Optum部门强劲增长，超出了季度利润预期，并上调了全年盈利目标。</blockquote></p><p> The industry bellwether raised its full-year profit target for the second time this year, and now expects adjusted earnings of $18.30 to $18.80 per share in 2021, compared with its previous forecast of $18.10 to $18.60.</p><p><blockquote>这家行业领头羊今年第二次上调全年利润目标，目前预计2021年调整后每股收益为18.30美元至18.80美元，此前预期为18.10美元至18.60美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter ended June 30, the company reported a medical loss ratio - the percentage of collected premiums spent on medical services - of 82.8%, compared with 70.2% a year earlier, when patients put off non-urgent care due to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>截至6月30日的季度，该公司报告的医疗损失率（收取的保费用于医疗服务的百分比）为82.8%，而去年同期为70.2%，当时患者因COVID-19而推迟了非紧急护理-19大流行。</blockquote></p><p> Nearly half of all Americans have been fully vaccinated according to latest government data and daily new COVID-19 cases ebbed in May and June, encouraging people to return to doctors' offices for routine, non-elective medical care.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新的政府数据，近一半的美国人已完全接种疫苗，5月和6月每日新增COVID-19病例有所减少，这鼓励人们返回医生办公室接受常规的非选择性医疗护理。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue from UnitedHealth's Optum unit, which manages drug benefits and offers healthcare data analytics services, rose 17.2% to $38.3 billion from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>UnitedHealth旗下Optum部门负责管理药物福利并提供医疗保健数据分析服务，其收入同比增长17.2%，达到383亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $4.70 per share, beating estimates of $4.43 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，联合健康报告调整后每股收益为4.70美元，超出预期的每股4.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company has beaten Wall Street's expectations for earnings per share for at least the last eight quarters.</p><p><blockquote>该公司至少在过去八个季度的每股收益超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UNH":"联合健康","QTWO":"Q2 Holdings Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151251345","content_text":"UnitedHealth Group Inc beat quarterly profit estimates and raised its full-year earnings target on Thursday, as the largest U.S. health insurer reported strong growth in its Optum unit that manages drug benefits.\nThe industry bellwether raised its full-year profit target for the second time this year, and now expects adjusted earnings of $18.30 to $18.80 per share in 2021, compared with its previous forecast of $18.10 to $18.60.\nFor the quarter ended June 30, the company reported a medical loss ratio - the percentage of collected premiums spent on medical services - of 82.8%, compared with 70.2% a year earlier, when patients put off non-urgent care due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nNearly half of all Americans have been fully vaccinated according to latest government data and daily new COVID-19 cases ebbed in May and June, encouraging people to return to doctors' offices for routine, non-elective medical care.\nRevenue from UnitedHealth's Optum unit, which manages drug benefits and offers healthcare data analytics services, rose 17.2% to $38.3 billion from a year earlier.\nUnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $4.70 per share, beating estimates of $4.43 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nThe company has beaten Wall Street's expectations for earnings per share for at least the last eight quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UNH":0.9,"QTWO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145767906,"gmtCreate":1626247357405,"gmtModify":1631891173158,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145767906","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142486278,"gmtCreate":1626168427794,"gmtModify":1631891173170,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142486278","repostId":"1177300400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177300400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626167696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177300400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 17:14","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Temasek Posts 25% Return, Most in 11 Years on Equities Rally<blockquote>淡马锡股价上涨25%，创11年来最高回报率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177300400","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Temasek Holdings Pte posted its biggest annual return since 2010 after the Singapore ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Temasek Holdings Pte posted its biggest annual return since 2010 after the Singapore state investor benefited from a rally in global equities.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博）——淡马锡控股私人有限公司公布了自2010年以来最大的年度回报，此前这家新加坡国有投资者受益于全球股市的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The 25% gain for the fiscal year ended March 31 marks a turnaround from the previous year, when Temasek reported a 2.3% drop after the pandemic triggered a market meltdown. Since then, equity markets have breached record highs as major economies start to re-open.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日的财年增长了25%，标志着与上一年相比的转变，当时淡马锡报告称，在疫情引发市场崩溃后，淡马锡股价下跌2.3%。此后，随着主要经济体开始重新开放，股市突破了历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect the global economy to recover steadily,” said Temasek International Managing Director Fock Wai Hoong, adding that the pace of recovery was uneven thanks to differing vaccine rollouts. “In addition, uncertainty remains around the virulence of new Covid-19 variants and there’s added geopolitical uncertainty as tensions continue between China and the U.S.”</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡国际董事总经理Fock Wai Hoong表示：“我们预计全球经济将稳步复苏。”他补充说，由于疫苗推出的不同，复苏的步伐并不均衡。“此外，新的Covid-19变种的毒力仍然存在不确定性，而且随着中美之间的紧张局势持续，地缘政治的不确定性也增加了。”</blockquote></p><p> Temasek joins other global funds and investors posting outsized gains as economies recover from the deep recessions of 2020. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund booked a record 25% return on its investments for the year ended in March, while a Kuwaiti sovereign savings fund had a 33% gain over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济从2020年的严重衰退中复苏，淡马锡与其他全球基金和投资者一起取得了巨大收益。截至3月份，日本政府养老金投资基金的投资回报率达到创纪录的25%，而科威特主权储蓄基金同期的投资回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p> Temasek’s net portfolio value stands at S$381 billion ($282 billion), up from S$306 billion a year earlier. China remains its biggest market with investments making up 27% of the portfolio, followed by Singapore at 24%. The Americas accounted for the largest share of new investments during the year, and now make up 20% of the portfolio. The firm’s 10-year annualized return rose to 7%.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡的投资组合净值为3810亿新元（2820亿美元），高于去年同期的3060亿新元。中国仍然是其最大的市场，投资占投资组合的27%，其次是新加坡，占24%。美洲在这一年的新投资中占最大份额，目前占投资组合的20%。该公司的10年年化回报率升至7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Last year because we have a March cycle, markets were down at the time, they’re in a better place now, so the public portfolio has done well,” Temasek International joint head of North America Mukul Chawla said. “But so have a number of our private companies,” as a number of those have benefited from public listings.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡国际北美联席主管Mukul Chawla表示：“去年，因为我们有一个三月周期，当时市场下跌，但现在情况更好，因此公共投资组合表现良好。”“但我们的许多私营公司也是如此”，因为其中许多公司从公开上市中受益。</blockquote></p><p> The improved performance comes despite several of Temasek’s best-known investments facing substantial hurdles. It’s had to buy billions of dollars worth of Singapore Airlines Ltd.’s convertible bonds amid a plunge in travel that led to a record loss of $3.2 billion last year. Still, the airline’s shares rebounded 37% in Temasek’s fiscal year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管淡马锡几项最知名的投资面临重大障碍，但业绩仍有所改善。由于去年旅游业暴跌导致创纪录的32亿美元损失，该公司不得不购买价值数十亿美元的新加坡航空有限公司可转换债券。尽管如此，该航空公司的股价在淡马锡财年仍反弹了37%。</blockquote></p><p> Temasek also faces headwinds in China, where it’s focused on technology, fintech and wealth management. An expected windfall from its backing of Ant Group Co. failed to materialize when its listing was halted in November.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡在中国也面临着阻力，该公司专注于科技、金融科技和财富管理。当蚂蚁集团公司于11月停止上市时，其支持的预期意外之财未能实现。</blockquote></p><p> Temasek is also an investor in ride-hailing app Didi Global Inc., which saw its share price plummet days after it listed in New York when Chinese regulators ordered it off local app stores.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡也是网约车应用滴滴出行的投资者，该公司在纽约上市几天后股价暴跌，原因是中国监管机构下令其下架当地应用商店。</blockquote></p><p> Investments in financial services including BlackRock Inc. and Visa Inc. now represent 24% of the portfolio, up from 23% in 2020, followed by telecommunications, media and technology businesses at 21%. Unlisted deals, which made up 48% of assets last year, now stand at 45%.</p><p><blockquote>包括贝莱德公司和Visa Inc.在内的金融服务投资目前占投资组合的24%，高于2020年的23%，其次是电信、媒体和技术业务，占21%。去年非上市交易占资产的48%，现在占45%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Temasek Posts 25% Return, Most in 11 Years on Equities Rally<blockquote>淡马锡股价上涨25%，创11年来最高回报率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTemasek Posts 25% Return, Most in 11 Years on Equities Rally<blockquote>淡马锡股价上涨25%，创11年来最高回报率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 17:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Temasek Holdings Pte posted its biggest annual return since 2010 after the Singapore state investor benefited from a rally in global equities.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博）——淡马锡控股私人有限公司公布了自2010年以来最大的年度回报，此前这家新加坡国有投资者受益于全球股市的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The 25% gain for the fiscal year ended March 31 marks a turnaround from the previous year, when Temasek reported a 2.3% drop after the pandemic triggered a market meltdown. Since then, equity markets have breached record highs as major economies start to re-open.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日的财年增长了25%，标志着与上一年相比的转变，当时淡马锡报告称，在疫情引发市场崩溃后，淡马锡股价下跌2.3%。此后，随着主要经济体开始重新开放，股市突破了历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect the global economy to recover steadily,” said Temasek International Managing Director Fock Wai Hoong, adding that the pace of recovery was uneven thanks to differing vaccine rollouts. “In addition, uncertainty remains around the virulence of new Covid-19 variants and there’s added geopolitical uncertainty as tensions continue between China and the U.S.”</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡国际董事总经理Fock Wai Hoong表示：“我们预计全球经济将稳步复苏。”他补充说，由于疫苗推出的不同，复苏的步伐并不均衡。“此外，新的Covid-19变种的毒力仍然存在不确定性，而且随着中美之间的紧张局势持续，地缘政治的不确定性也增加了。”</blockquote></p><p> Temasek joins other global funds and investors posting outsized gains as economies recover from the deep recessions of 2020. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund booked a record 25% return on its investments for the year ended in March, while a Kuwaiti sovereign savings fund had a 33% gain over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济从2020年的严重衰退中复苏，淡马锡与其他全球基金和投资者一起取得了巨大收益。截至3月份，日本政府养老金投资基金的投资回报率达到创纪录的25%，而科威特主权储蓄基金同期的投资回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p> Temasek’s net portfolio value stands at S$381 billion ($282 billion), up from S$306 billion a year earlier. China remains its biggest market with investments making up 27% of the portfolio, followed by Singapore at 24%. The Americas accounted for the largest share of new investments during the year, and now make up 20% of the portfolio. The firm’s 10-year annualized return rose to 7%.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡的投资组合净值为3810亿新元（2820亿美元），高于去年同期的3060亿新元。中国仍然是其最大的市场，投资占投资组合的27%，其次是新加坡，占24%。美洲在这一年的新投资中占最大份额，目前占投资组合的20%。该公司的10年年化回报率升至7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Last year because we have a March cycle, markets were down at the time, they’re in a better place now, so the public portfolio has done well,” Temasek International joint head of North America Mukul Chawla said. “But so have a number of our private companies,” as a number of those have benefited from public listings.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡国际北美联席主管Mukul Chawla表示：“去年，因为我们有一个三月周期，当时市场下跌，但现在情况更好，因此公共投资组合表现良好。”“但我们的许多私营公司也是如此”，因为其中许多公司从公开上市中受益。</blockquote></p><p> The improved performance comes despite several of Temasek’s best-known investments facing substantial hurdles. It’s had to buy billions of dollars worth of Singapore Airlines Ltd.’s convertible bonds amid a plunge in travel that led to a record loss of $3.2 billion last year. Still, the airline’s shares rebounded 37% in Temasek’s fiscal year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管淡马锡几项最知名的投资面临重大障碍，但业绩仍有所改善。由于去年旅游业暴跌导致创纪录的32亿美元损失，该公司不得不购买价值数十亿美元的新加坡航空有限公司可转换债券。尽管如此，该航空公司的股价在淡马锡财年仍反弹了37%。</blockquote></p><p> Temasek also faces headwinds in China, where it’s focused on technology, fintech and wealth management. An expected windfall from its backing of Ant Group Co. failed to materialize when its listing was halted in November.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡在中国也面临着阻力，该公司专注于科技、金融科技和财富管理。当蚂蚁集团公司于11月停止上市时，其支持的预期意外之财未能实现。</blockquote></p><p> Temasek is also an investor in ride-hailing app Didi Global Inc., which saw its share price plummet days after it listed in New York when Chinese regulators ordered it off local app stores.</p><p><blockquote>淡马锡也是网约车应用滴滴出行的投资者，该公司在纽约上市几天后股价暴跌，原因是中国监管机构下令其下架当地应用商店。</blockquote></p><p> Investments in financial services including BlackRock Inc. and Visa Inc. now represent 24% of the portfolio, up from 23% in 2020, followed by telecommunications, media and technology businesses at 21%. Unlisted deals, which made up 48% of assets last year, now stand at 45%.</p><p><blockquote>包括贝莱德公司和Visa Inc.在内的金融服务投资目前占投资组合的24%，高于2020年的23%，其次是电信、媒体和技术业务，占21%。去年非上市交易占资产的48%，现在占45%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/temasek-posts-25-return-most-070000337.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/temasek-posts-25-return-most-070000337.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177300400","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Temasek Holdings Pte posted its biggest annual return since 2010 after the Singapore state investor benefited from a rally in global equities.\nThe 25% gain for the fiscal year ended March 31 marks a turnaround from the previous year, when Temasek reported a 2.3% drop after the pandemic triggered a market meltdown. Since then, equity markets have breached record highs as major economies start to re-open.\n“We expect the global economy to recover steadily,” said Temasek International Managing Director Fock Wai Hoong, adding that the pace of recovery was uneven thanks to differing vaccine rollouts. “In addition, uncertainty remains around the virulence of new Covid-19 variants and there’s added geopolitical uncertainty as tensions continue between China and the U.S.”\nTemasek joins other global funds and investors posting outsized gains as economies recover from the deep recessions of 2020. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund booked a record 25% return on its investments for the year ended in March, while a Kuwaiti sovereign savings fund had a 33% gain over the same period.\nTemasek’s net portfolio value stands at S$381 billion ($282 billion), up from S$306 billion a year earlier. China remains its biggest market with investments making up 27% of the portfolio, followed by Singapore at 24%. The Americas accounted for the largest share of new investments during the year, and now make up 20% of the portfolio. The firm’s 10-year annualized return rose to 7%.\n“Last year because we have a March cycle, markets were down at the time, they’re in a better place now, so the public portfolio has done well,” Temasek International joint head of North America Mukul Chawla said. “But so have a number of our private companies,” as a number of those have benefited from public listings.\nThe improved performance comes despite several of Temasek’s best-known investments facing substantial hurdles. It’s had to buy billions of dollars worth of Singapore Airlines Ltd.’s convertible bonds amid a plunge in travel that led to a record loss of $3.2 billion last year. Still, the airline’s shares rebounded 37% in Temasek’s fiscal year.\nTemasek also faces headwinds in China, where it’s focused on technology, fintech and wealth management. An expected windfall from its backing of Ant Group Co. failed to materialize when its listing was halted in November.\nTemasek is also an investor in ride-hailing app Didi Global Inc., which saw its share price plummet days after it listed in New York when Chinese regulators ordered it off local app stores.\nInvestments in financial services including BlackRock Inc. and Visa Inc. now represent 24% of the portfolio, up from 23% in 2020, followed by telecommunications, media and technology businesses at 21%. Unlisted deals, which made up 48% of assets last year, now stand at 45%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146404299,"gmtCreate":1626095063811,"gmtModify":1631891173180,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146404299","repostId":"2150713535","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148253690,"gmtCreate":1625981556710,"gmtModify":1631891173193,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148253690","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是一条单程之旅。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学法学院专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚·米茨(Joshua Mitts)表示：“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，旨在增加保护零售交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减慢交易速度或提高交易成本，也可能会激怒散户。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是一条单程之旅。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学法学院专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚·米茨(Joshua Mitts)表示：“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，旨在增加保护零售交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减慢交易速度或提高交易成本，也可能会激怒散户。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","BB":"黑莓","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","SCHW":"嘉信理财","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"BB":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"GME":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"SCHW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141786979,"gmtCreate":1625891837491,"gmtModify":1631893478210,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment, thank u","listText":"Pls like and comment, thank u","text":"Pls like and comment, thank 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thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141909494","repostId":"1122240967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141909146,"gmtCreate":1625829539885,"gmtModify":1631893478259,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Pls like thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141909146","repostId":"1113072261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113072261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625823554,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113072261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113072261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of","content":"<p><div> GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. What Happened:Founded in ...</p><p><blockquote><div>彭博社周四援引知情人士的话报道称，游戏驿站公司卖空者Melvin Capital Management LP 2021年上半年亏损46%。发生了什么：成立于...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. What Happened:Founded in ...</p><p><blockquote><div>彭博社周四援引知情人士的话报道称，游戏驿站公司卖空者Melvin Capital Management LP 2021年上半年亏损46%。发生了什么：成立于...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113072261","content_text":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.\nThe hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.\nPlotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.\nWhy It Matters:Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.\nMelvin Capital said in May it has closed out of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.\nIt was reported in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.\nIn early June,AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.\nPrice Action: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141900710,"gmtCreate":1625829518730,"gmtModify":1631893478275,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583742685615503","idStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Pls like 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09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是一条单程之旅。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学法学院专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚·米茨(Joshua Mitts)表示：“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，旨在增加保护零售交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减慢交易速度或提高交易成本，也可能会激怒散户。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是一条单程之旅。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学法学院专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚·米茨(Joshua Mitts)表示：“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，旨在增加保护零售交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减慢交易速度或提高交易成本，也可能会激怒散户。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","BB":"黑莓","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","SCHW":"嘉信理财","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"BB":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"GME":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"SCHW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149005555,"gmtCreate":1625681387177,"gmtModify":1631893478319,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583742685615503","authorIdStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That is indeed true","listText":"That is indeed true","text":"That is indeed true","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149005555","repostId":"1118316014","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141164451,"gmtCreate":1625842520073,"gmtModify":1631893478223,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583742685615503","authorIdStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141164451","repostId":"1103507901","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140446528,"gmtCreate":1625670381864,"gmtModify":1633938490803,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583742685615503","authorIdStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Impressive&nbsp;","listText":"Impressive&nbsp;","text":"Impressive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140446528","repostId":"2149313387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170199321,"gmtCreate":1626409783163,"gmtModify":1631891173133,"author":{"id":"3583742685615503","authorId":"3583742685615503","name":"phanrider","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583742685615503","authorIdStr":"3583742685615503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no...&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no...&nbsp;","text":"Oh no...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170199321","repostId":"1123074557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123074557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626403275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123074557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 10:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123074557","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss wa","content":"<p>Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,<i>Cathie Wood.</i></p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，摩根大通的不和主要是与比特币的不和，每隔一天就会定期发布一篇又一篇热门文章（因为它正在悄悄地为自己最近推出的富有客户基金积累加密货币）。但现在，这家美国最大的银行一直疯狂地坚持其最喜欢的做法，即以牺牲成长型股票为代价购买周期性和价值型股票——这种交易最近几周适得其反——正在升级对科技股的讨伐，追求最新科技泡沫的典型儿童，或者更确切地说是典型女性，<i>凯西·伍德。</i></blockquote></p><p> In a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.</p><p><blockquote>在摩根大通今天上午发布的一份报告中，股票衍生品策略师Shawn Quigg表示，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF ARKK正在表现出2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前成长型基金中出现的许多“泡沫状特征”，投资者应该通过购买Ark基金的看跌期权来对冲类似的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Taking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that<i>\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</i><i><b>The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>摩根大通——我们怀疑它是凯西的主要经纪人——从其最喜欢的抨击比特币的消遣中抽出宝贵的时间写道<i>“今年迄今为止，高增长子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金呈现出类似泡沫的周期（图1），类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</i><i><b>ARK Innovation ETF表现出许多这些特征，可能会吸引投资者陷入牛市陷阱。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ce5b2045dab9414160f919d7a55818\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"439\">JPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:</p><p><blockquote>抛开摩根大通与凯西的争执不谈，我们在奎格的报告中发现最引人注目的是，这是这家美国最大的银行首次公开承认“重大财政和货币刺激”导致了类似于2000年目睹的“泡沫状”活动。以下是奎格如何阐述他关于“驾驭泡沫”的论文，最终做空ARKK：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets<b>, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</b></li>  <li>The ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.</li>  <li>However, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.</li>  <li>A technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.</li> </ul> Combining these four catalysts is how the<b>\"bull trap\"</b>was set according to JPM.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>e在重大财政和货币刺激措施以及企业和消费者资产负债表流动性充足的帮助下，年初至今高增长股票和子行业的过度投机<b>导致一些基于增长的基金表现出类似泡沫的周期，类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</b></li><li>ARKK 2020-21年从低谷到峰值385%的运行符合我们之前描述为泡沫的标准，是电动汽车/绿色科技（例如TSLA）、加密货币（例如COIN、SQ）、在家工作（例如TDOC、ROKU、ZM）和大流行生物技术（例如CRSP）股票/子行业的直接受益者。</li><li>然而，在2月份见顶后，随着零售/Reddit狂热、在家工作和加密货币交易（除其他外）动摇，ARKK股价在短短几个月（5月）内跌破关键技术支撑位（例如50、100、200日移动平均线）。</li><li>美国国债收益率技术性下跌和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧使得高科技增长和ARKK反弹。</li></ul>将这四种催化剂结合起来就是<b>“公牛陷阱”</b>是根据JPM设置的。</blockquote></p><p> But sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"</p><p><blockquote>但坚持该行的政党路线，即“在经济持续重新开放的情况下，支持周期性资产/价值型资产的优异表现，以及下半年国债收益率的预期回升”，该行表示，投资者现在应该开始退出“牛市陷阱”即将到来的“收益率上升和经济增长动力的转变符合我们基于价值的观点，可能会引发ARKK股票的牛市陷阱逆转”。</blockquote></p><p> What specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:</p><p><blockquote>什么具体事件会引发ARKK股票的“投降”？马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)数月来一直预测的债券收益率将出现通货再膨胀式的跃升——即使收益率暴跌——即：</blockquote></p><p>   As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).    <b>A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e217a9277d4bfe254c2b441415631b6d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"362\">JPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&amp;P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所指出的，我们认为美国国债收益率最近的走势本质上是技术性的，并不表明投资者对复苏健康状况或通胀前景减弱的更广泛担忧。支持这一点的是10年期TIPS盈亏平衡没有缩减（图3）、持续高于预期的通胀读数（例如CPI、PPI、管理层评论）以及最近弱于预期的30年期国债拍卖（此处）。<b>除了大型主要科技股持续跑赢颠覆性科技股（图4）之外，迫在眉睫的收益率上升可能会成为加速ARKK股价下跌的催化剂，并迫使ARKK进入投降阶段。</b>当然，摩根大通是正确的：如果收益率上升确实“迫在眉睫”，那么不仅是ARKK，所有高久期股票都将遭受重创，从FAAMGs开始，此举将转化为全市场的溃败（奇怪的是，我们没有看到摩根大通下调年终标准普尔预测）。问题是，收益率是否以及何时会再次飙升，以及在美联储现在应该“超越通胀担忧”并且不会让利率上升太多的情况下，什么会引发这一举措，特别是在增长担忧的情况下。蔓延的德尔塔变异毒株主导了交易讨论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"</p><p><blockquote>假设读者同意摩根大通策略师的观点，即收益率即将再次飙升，那么他们应该如何应对ARKK即将到来的疲软？正如Quigg所解释的那样，“目前3M 90%的隐含波动率约为39%，看起来很便宜，去年排名第14%。鉴于ARKK的历史有限，其大部分回报和波动性都发生在去年，我们发现利用去年作为一个公平的可比衡量标准，特别是如果该股可能准备进入更广泛的投降阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, JPMorgan recommends \"<i>investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，摩根大通建议“<i>尽管股价有可能进入更广泛的投降阶段，但投资者仍利用接近年度低点的隐含波动率（参考价格为118.17美元）购买ARKK 105年10月执行看跌期权。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Goes After Cathie Wood, Urges Buying Puts On Her \"Bubble-Like\" Ark Fund<blockquote>摩根大通追逐凯西·伍德，敦促购买她“泡沫般”的方舟基金的看跌期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,<i>Cathie Wood.</i></p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，摩根大通的不和主要是与比特币的不和，每隔一天就会定期发布一篇又一篇热门文章（因为它正在悄悄地为自己最近推出的富有客户基金积累加密货币）。但现在，这家美国最大的银行一直疯狂地坚持其最喜欢的做法，即以牺牲成长型股票为代价购买周期性和价值型股票——这种交易最近几周适得其反——正在升级对科技股的讨伐，追求最新科技泡沫的典型儿童，或者更确切地说是典型女性，<i>凯西·伍德。</i></blockquote></p><p> In a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.</p><p><blockquote>在摩根大通今天上午发布的一份报告中，股票衍生品策略师Shawn Quigg表示，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF ARKK正在表现出2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前成长型基金中出现的许多“泡沫状特征”，投资者应该通过购买Ark基金的看跌期权来对冲类似的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Taking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that<i>\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</i><i><b>The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>摩根大通——我们怀疑它是凯西的主要经纪人——从其最喜欢的抨击比特币的消遣中抽出宝贵的时间写道<i>“今年迄今为止，高增长子行业的过度投机导致一些基于增长的基金呈现出类似泡沫的周期（图1），类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</i><i><b>ARK Innovation ETF表现出许多这些特征，可能会吸引投资者陷入牛市陷阱。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ce5b2045dab9414160f919d7a55818\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"439\">JPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:</p><p><blockquote>抛开摩根大通与凯西的争执不谈，我们在奎格的报告中发现最引人注目的是，这是这家美国最大的银行首次公开承认“重大财政和货币刺激”导致了类似于2000年目睹的“泡沫状”活动。以下是奎格如何阐述他关于“驾驭泡沫”的论文，最终做空ARKK：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets<b>, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).</b></li>  <li>The ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.</li>  <li>However, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.</li>  <li>A technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.</li> </ul> Combining these four catalysts is how the<b>\"bull trap\"</b>was set according to JPM.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>e在重大财政和货币刺激措施以及企业和消费者资产负债表流动性充足的帮助下，年初至今高增长股票和子行业的过度投机<b>导致一些基于增长的基金表现出类似泡沫的周期，类似于2000年的情况（图2）。</b></li><li>ARKK 2020-21年从低谷到峰值385%的运行符合我们之前描述为泡沫的标准，是电动汽车/绿色科技（例如TSLA）、加密货币（例如COIN、SQ）、在家工作（例如TDOC、ROKU、ZM）和大流行生物技术（例如CRSP）股票/子行业的直接受益者。</li><li>然而，在2月份见顶后，随着零售/Reddit狂热、在家工作和加密货币交易（除其他外）动摇，ARKK股价在短短几个月（5月）内跌破关键技术支撑位（例如50、100、200日移动平均线）。</li><li>美国国债收益率技术性下跌和对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧使得高科技增长和ARKK反弹。</li></ul>将这四种催化剂结合起来就是<b>“公牛陷阱”</b>是根据JPM设置的。</blockquote></p><p> But sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"</p><p><blockquote>但坚持该行的政党路线，即“在经济持续重新开放的情况下，支持周期性资产/价值型资产的优异表现，以及下半年国债收益率的预期回升”，该行表示，投资者现在应该开始退出“牛市陷阱”即将到来的“收益率上升和经济增长动力的转变符合我们基于价值的观点，可能会引发ARKK股票的牛市陷阱逆转”。</blockquote></p><p> What specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:</p><p><blockquote>什么具体事件会引发ARKK股票的“投降”？马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)数月来一直预测的债券收益率将出现通货再膨胀式的跃升——即使收益率暴跌——即：</blockquote></p><p>   As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).    <b>A looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e217a9277d4bfe254c2b441415631b6d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"362\">JPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&amp;P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所指出的，我们认为美国国债收益率最近的走势本质上是技术性的，并不表明投资者对复苏健康状况或通胀前景减弱的更广泛担忧。支持这一点的是10年期TIPS盈亏平衡没有缩减（图3）、持续高于预期的通胀读数（例如CPI、PPI、管理层评论）以及最近弱于预期的30年期国债拍卖（此处）。<b>除了大型主要科技股持续跑赢颠覆性科技股（图4）之外，迫在眉睫的收益率上升可能会成为加速ARKK股价下跌的催化剂，并迫使ARKK进入投降阶段。</b>当然，摩根大通是正确的：如果收益率上升确实“迫在眉睫”，那么不仅是ARKK，所有高久期股票都将遭受重创，从FAAMGs开始，此举将转化为全市场的溃败（奇怪的是，我们没有看到摩根大通下调年终标准普尔预测）。问题是，收益率是否以及何时会再次飙升，以及在美联储现在应该“超越通胀担忧”并且不会让利率上升太多的情况下，什么会引发这一举措，特别是在增长担忧的情况下。蔓延的德尔塔变异毒株主导了交易讨论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"</p><p><blockquote>假设读者同意摩根大通策略师的观点，即收益率即将再次飙升，那么他们应该如何应对ARKK即将到来的疲软？正如Quigg所解释的那样，“目前3M 90%的隐含波动率约为39%，看起来很便宜，去年排名第14%。鉴于ARKK的历史有限，其大部分回报和波动性都发生在去年，我们发现利用去年作为一个公平的可比衡量标准，特别是如果该股可能准备进入更广泛的投降阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> As a result, JPMorgan recommends \"<i>investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，摩根大通建议“<i>尽管股价有可能进入更广泛的投降阶段，但投资者仍利用接近年度低点的隐含波动率（参考价格为118.17美元）购买ARKK 105年10月执行看跌期权。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-goes-after-cathie-wood-urges-buying-puts-her-bubble-ark-fund\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-goes-after-cathie-wood-urges-buying-puts-her-bubble-ark-fund","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123074557","content_text":"Until now, JPMorgan's feud was mostly with bitcoin, publishing hitpiece after hitpiece with Swiss watch regularity every other day (as it quietly accumulates the cryptocurrency for its ownrecently launched fund for rich clients). But now, the largest US bank, which has been furiously clinging to its favorite reco of buying cyclical and value names at the expense of growth stocks - a trade which has backfired painfully in recent weeks - is escalating its crusade against tech by going after the poster child, or rather poster woman, of the latest tech bubble,Cathie Wood.\nIn a note from JPM published this morning, equity derivative strategist Shawn Quigg says that Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF, ARKK, is exhibiting many \"bubble-like traits\" seen in growth-based funds in 2000 ahead of the popping of the dot com bubble, and investors should hedge against a similar outcome by buying puts on the Ark Fund.\nTaking precious time away from its favorite bitcoin bashing pastime, JPMorgan - which we doubt is Cathie's Prime Broker - writes that\"excessive speculation in high-growth sub-sectors year-to-date is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles (Fig. 1), similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).The ARK Innovation ETF exhibits many of these traits, and may be luring investors into a bull trap scenario.\"\nJPM's beef with Cathie aside, what we find most remarkable in Quigg's note is that this is the first time the largest US bank has gone on the record to admit that \"significant fiscal and monetary stimulus\" has led to \"bubble-like\" activity similar to that witnessed in 2000. Here is how Quigg lays out his thesis on \"navigating a bubble\" which culminates by shorting ARKK:\n\nEexcessive speculation in high-growth stocks and sub-sectors year-to-date, aided by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, and ample liquidity in corporate and consumer balance sheets, is causing some growth-based funds to exhibit bubble-like cycles, similar to that witnessed in 2000 (Fig. 2).\nThe ARKK 2020-21 trough to peak run of 385% fits the criteria we previously described as a bubble, a direct beneficiary of the Electric Vehicle/Green Tech (e.g., TSLA), Cryptocurrency (e.g., COIN, SQ), Work-From-Home (e.g., TDOC, ROKU, ZM), and pandemic biotech (e.g., CRSP) stocks/sub-sectors.\nHowever, after peaking in February, ARKK shares broke below key technical supports (e.g., 50, 100, 200-day moving averages)in just a matter of months (May) as the retail/Reddit mania, work from home and cryptocurrency trades (among others) faltered.\nA technical decline in Treasury yields and fear of the Delta variant allowed for a rebound in high-tech growth, and ARKK.\n\nCombining these four catalysts is how the\"bull trap\"was set according to JPM.\nBut sticking to the bank's party line which \"favors the outperformance of cyclicals/value-based assets amid the ongoing economic reopening, and an anticipated pick-up in Treasury yields in 2H\" the bank says that investors should now start to exit said \"bull trap\" as the imminent \"rise in yields and a shift in the growth dynamic of the economy in-line with our value-based view could spark a bull trap reversal in ARKK shares.\"\nWhat specific event will spark the \"capitulation\" in ARKK shares? The same reflationary jump in bond yields that Marko Kolanovic has been predicting for months and months - even as yields tumbled - to wit:\n\n As we note, we believe the recent move in Treasury yields is technical in nature and is not an indication of a broader investor concern surrounding the health of the recovery, or a waning inflation outlook. Supporting this is the lack of tapering in the 10Y TIPS break-evens (Fig. 3), continued inflation reading above expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI, management commentary), and a recent weaker-than-anticipated 30Y Treasury auction (here).\n\n\nA looming rise in yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK shares lower, in addition to the continued outperformance of large staple-tech stocks over disruptive-tech stocks (Fig. 4),and pressing ARKK into the capitulation phase.\n\nJPM is, of course, correct: if a rise in yields is indeed \"looming\", then not just ARKK but all high duration names will be clobbered, starting with the FAAMGs, a move which would then translate into a marketwide rout (oddly enough we don't see JPMorgan cutting their year-end S&P forecast). The question is if and when yields will again spike higher, and what would spark this move in a world where the Fed is now supposedly \"on top of inflation fears\" and won't let rates rise too much, especially as growth fears over the spreading Delta variant dominate trading discussions.\nAssuming readers agree with the JPM strategist that another spike in yields is imminent, how should they play the coming weakness in ARKK? As Quigg explains, \"current 3M 90% implied volatility of ~39% appears cheap, ranking in its 14th%-ile over thelast year. Given ARKK has a limited history, with the bulk of its returns and volatility occurring over the last year, we find utilizing the last year as a fair comparable measure, particularly if the stock may be poised for a broader capitulation phase.\"\nAs a result, JPMorgan recommends \"investors purchase ARKK October 105 strike puts for $4.50, indicatively ($118.17 reference price), taking advantage of implied volatility near a yearly low despite the potential for shares to enter a broader capitulation phase.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKX":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}