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2021-09-08

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Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>

2021-08-05

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You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>

2021-10-01

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2021-09-29

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Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-03

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Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>

2021-09-23

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2021-09-04

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2021-08-15

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These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>

2021-10-13

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Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote>

2021-09-11

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Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>

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Roblox Corporation, which enables users to enter virtual communities, known as the metaverse ...</p><p><blockquote><div>RBLX 股票可能会成为长期赢家，但它可能会首先受到短期障碍的损害。Roblox公司，使用户能够进入虚拟社区，被称为元宇宙……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Roblox Stock Poised to Rally Soon?<blockquote>Roblox 股票即将上涨吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Roblox Stock Poised to Rally Soon?<blockquote>Roblox 股票即将上涨吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-18 20:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> RBLX stock is likely to be a long-term winner, but it is likely to be hurt by shorter-term hurdles first.  Roblox Corporation, which enables users to enter virtual communities, known as the metaverse ...</p><p><blockquote><div>RBLX 股票可能会成为长期赢家，但它可能会首先受到短期障碍的损害。Roblox公司，使用户能够进入虚拟社区，被称为元宇宙……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127670394","content_text":"RBLX stock is likely to be a long-term winner, but it is likely to be hurt by shorter-term hurdles first.\n\nRoblox Corporation, which enables users to enter virtual communities, known as the metaverse and create the own video games, has many positive attributes and great growth potential. What’s more, its management team appears to be adept both at making lucrative deals and adding captivating, new features to the company’s metaverse. Still, like many stay-at-home names that thrived in 2020, RBLX stock is facing important macro challenges.\nWhat’s more, despite their recent, sizeable pullback, the shares’ valuation remains quite steep. As a result of the latter two points, I’m currently cautious on the shares.\nRoblox Has Many Strengths\nRoblox has proven to be very proficient when it comes to attracting consumers to its metaverse and keeping them there. In August, thecompany reported that itsactive user base had jumped 32% from last year to 48.2 million\nMoreover, the company has been able to monetize those users fairly effectively, as it predicted that its August sales would come in at $219 million to $222 million. In 2020, Roblox’sreported revenue of $923million, way up from $508 million in 2020.\nAnd showing that it knows how to make very lucrative, highly impactful deals, Robloxannounced thatit would team up with the giant toymaker,Hasbro(NASDAQ:HAS). Under the agreement, Hasbro agreed to unveil Roblox-inspired Nerf blasters and a Monopoly board game that is based on Roblox.\nThe deal is likely to generate very high-margin royalties for Roblox that will move the needle for RBLX stock. Also worth noting is that a major cartoon creator, DreamWorks, already launched a Roblox TV series. I’m sure that Roblox is also getting high-margin royalties from that show.\nGiven the strong popularity of its metaverse, I expect the company to announce many more such deals.\nFinally, in September, the company statedthat it had added “spatial voice” that enablesvoice chat on its platform. Basically, it allows certain users to communicate with each other, using their own voices, in specified parts of Roblox’s metaverse.\nMany people like using their voices to communicate and find it very easy and natural to do so. Further, there are not very many video game developersthat have made voice chatan integral part of their offerings. Consequently, I believe that Roblox’s voice chat feature will, over the long term, make Roblox’s virtual community meaningfully more popular.\nMacro Challenges and Valuation\nAs I’ve written in multiple, past columns, video game makers, along with other developers of stay-at-home products that thrived during the heart of the pandemic, are likely to be hurt by the winding down of the virus. So it’s  unsurprising that Roblox’sdaily average users increased only4% in August versus July. That was a significant deceleration from the 8% month-over-month increase that the company reported in July compared with June.\nAs the pandemic winds down further, the company could very well report month-over-month declines in some of its user metrics, causing the shares to drop considerably. Making the stock particularly risky in the near-to-medium term is the fact that, despite its recent, steep declines, its valuation remains quite elevated.\nSince peaking in June, the stock had tumbled about 25%. Yet the shares are still changing hands for 13.5x analysts’ average 2022 revenue estimate. That’s a high valuation for a company that still generates steep losses, is in a highly competitive sector, and is facing important near-and-medium-term hurdles.\nThe Bottom Line on RBLX Stock\nRoblox appears to be well positioned to become a winner in the long term. But given its near-and-medium-term hurdles, I advise investors to wait for a better entry point before taking a bullish position in the name.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822236974,"gmtCreate":1634133690364,"gmtModify":1634133690425,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822236974","repostId":"1113013066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113013066","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634132611,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113013066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113013066","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could","content":"<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 股价在早盘交易中飙升 4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司所做的不仅仅是电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited 的 Garena 部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏 FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 公布 2021 年第二季度收入为 23 亿美元，同比增长 159%。需要注意的一件重要事情是，尽管该公司报告期内净亏损，但其活跃用户数量和季度付费用户数量有所增加。它刚刚在新市场起步，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，为盈利铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 股价在早盘交易中飙升 4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司所做的不仅仅是电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited 的 Garena 部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏 FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 公布 2021 年第二季度收入为 23 亿美元，同比增长 159%。需要注意的一件重要事情是，尽管该公司报告期内净亏损，但其活跃用户数量和季度付费用户数量有所增加。它刚刚在新市场起步，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，为盈利铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113013066","content_text":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains one of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.\nThe company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.\nSea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864209351,"gmtCreate":1633101363666,"gmtModify":1633101413514,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864209351","repostId":"2172963836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862554803,"gmtCreate":1632894451863,"gmtModify":1632894452049,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862554803","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863124815,"gmtCreate":1632366408837,"gmtModify":1632800873664,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863124815","repostId":"2169650271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860551151,"gmtCreate":1632190579273,"gmtModify":1632802174069,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860551151","repostId":"1163068688","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860314116,"gmtCreate":1632135195535,"gmtModify":1632802628920,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860314116","repostId":"1194891884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194891884","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632091615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1194891884?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 06:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194891884","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also","content":"<p>The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.</p><p><blockquote>本周的重头戏将是美联储 9 月份的政策会议。投资者还将关注多项企业财报发布、投资者日和最新经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report&nbsp;on Thursday. Investor days this week include&nbsp;Biogen on Tuesday,&nbsp;Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and&nbsp;Salesforce.com on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar 将于周一公布季度收益，随后 Adobe、AutoZone 和 FedEx 将于周二公布业绩。通用磨坊周三发布报告，耐克、埃森哲、好市多批发和达顿餐厅周四发布报告。本周的投资者日包括周二的百健、周三的惠好和周四的 Salesforce.com。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely&nbsp;to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s&nbsp;press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely&nbsp;watched.</p><p><blockquote>美联储货币政策委员会将于本周二和周三召开会议。央行不太可能改变其目标利率区间，但可能会更新其开始减少每月资产购买的计划。周三下午美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会将受到密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’&nbsp;existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括世界大型企业联合会周四公布的 8 月份领先经济指数。美国房地产市场还将发布多项最新消息，包括周一公布的全国房屋建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）9 月份住房市场指数、周二公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）8 月份新住宅建设数据以及周三公布的全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）8 月份成屋销售数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/20星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar 报告 2021 财年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Merck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司在欧洲肿瘤医学学会 2021 年大会上展示了其癌症药物组合的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>Home Builders 发布 9 月份房地产市场指数。经济学家预测读数为 73，比 8 月份的数字低 2 个百分点，8 月份是一年多来的最低值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月21日星期二</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe、AutoZone 和联邦快递发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>百健举办投资者日活动，讨论其神经科学疗法管道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>8月份新住宅建设报告。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的新屋开工年率为 155 万套，比 7 月份的水平高出 1%。新屋开工率低于今年 3 月达到的金融危机后峰值 172.5 万套。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月22日星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The FOMC announces</b>&nbsp;its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会宣布</b>其货币政策决定。美联储可能会将联邦基金利率维持在接近于零的水平不变，但可能会暗示将在今年晚些时候削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> General Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p><blockquote>通用磨坊公布 2022 财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and&nbsp;Yum China Holdings&nbsp;host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿科学、惠好和百胜中国控股公司举办 2021 年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TheBank of Japan</b>&nbsp;announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b>日本银行</b>宣布货币政策决定。人们普遍预计日本央行将维持其关键短期利率在负0.1%不变，因为由于新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株，东京都和其他地区在9月底前仍处于紧急状态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5%&nbsp;from July’s 599,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告8月份的现房销售情况。经季节性调整后，预计全年售出房屋57.8万套，比7月份的59.9万套下降3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月23日星期四</b></blockquote></p><p> Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>埃森哲、好市多批发、达顿餐厅和耐克公司在评级举行会议，讨论他们的季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com 举办 2021 年投资者日。首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫和Slack首席执行官斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德将出席。Salesforce 今年夏天完成了对 Slack 的 280 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布8月份领先经济指数。经济学家预测，继 7 月份上涨 0.9% 之后，环比上涨 0.5%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计 2021 年国内生产总值增长 6%，2022 年增长 4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月24日星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Kansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城南方公司召开特别股东大会，就与加拿大太平洋铁路公司的合并提案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 06:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.</p><p><blockquote>本周的重头戏将是美联储 9 月份的政策会议。投资者还将关注多项企业财报发布、投资者日和最新经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report&nbsp;on Thursday. Investor days this week include&nbsp;Biogen on Tuesday,&nbsp;Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and&nbsp;Salesforce.com on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar 将于周一公布季度收益，随后 Adobe、AutoZone 和 FedEx 将于周二公布业绩。通用磨坊周三发布报告，耐克、埃森哲、好市多批发和达顿餐厅周四发布报告。本周的投资者日包括周二的百健、周三的惠好和周四的 Salesforce.com。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely&nbsp;to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s&nbsp;press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely&nbsp;watched.</p><p><blockquote>美联储货币政策委员会将于本周二和周三召开会议。央行不太可能改变其目标利率区间，但可能会更新其开始减少每月资产购买的计划。周三下午美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会将受到密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’&nbsp;existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括世界大型企业联合会周四公布的 8 月份领先经济指数。美国房地产市场还将发布多项最新消息，包括周一公布的全国房屋建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）9 月份住房市场指数、周二公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）8 月份新住宅建设数据以及周三公布的全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）8 月份成屋销售数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/20星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar 报告 2021 财年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Merck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司在欧洲肿瘤医学学会 2021 年大会上展示了其癌症药物组合的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>Home Builders 发布 9 月份房地产市场指数。经济学家预测读数为 73，比 8 月份的数字低 2 个百分点，8 月份是一年多来的最低值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月21日星期二</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe、AutoZone 和联邦快递发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>百健举办投资者日活动，讨论其神经科学疗法管道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>8月份新住宅建设报告。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的新屋开工年率为 155 万套，比 7 月份的水平高出 1%。新屋开工率低于今年 3 月达到的金融危机后峰值 172.5 万套。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月22日星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The FOMC announces</b>&nbsp;its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会宣布</b>其货币政策决定。美联储可能会将联邦基金利率维持在接近于零的水平不变，但可能会暗示将在今年晚些时候削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> General Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p><blockquote>通用磨坊公布 2022 财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and&nbsp;Yum China Holdings&nbsp;host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿科学、惠好和百胜中国控股公司举办 2021 年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TheBank of Japan</b>&nbsp;announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b>日本银行</b>宣布货币政策决定。人们普遍预计日本央行将维持其关键短期利率在负0.1%不变，因为由于新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株，东京都和其他地区在9月底前仍处于紧急状态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5%&nbsp;from July’s 599,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告8月份的现房销售情况。经季节性调整后，预计全年售出房屋57.8万套，比7月份的59.9万套下降3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月23日星期四</b></blockquote></p><p> Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>埃森哲、好市多批发、达顿餐厅和耐克公司在评级举行会议，讨论他们的季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com 举办 2021 年投资者日。首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫和Slack首席执行官斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德将出席。Salesforce 今年夏天完成了对 Slack 的 280 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布8月份领先经济指数。经济学家预测，继 7 月份上涨 0.9% 之后，环比上涨 0.5%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计 2021 年国内生产总值增长 6%，2022 年增长 4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9月24日星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Kansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城南方公司召开特别股东大会，就与加拿大太平洋铁路公司的合并提案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-costco-fedex-salesforce-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51632078208?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","NKE":"耐克","FDX":"联邦快递",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","COST":"好市多","CRM":"赛富时","ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-costco-fedex-salesforce-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51632078208?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194891884","content_text":"The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.\nLennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report on Thursday. Investor days this week include Biogen on Tuesday, Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and Salesforce.com on Thursday.\nThe Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched.\nEconomic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.\nMonday 9/20\nLennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.\nMerck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.\nTuesday 9/21\nAdobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.\nBiogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.\nThe Census Bureau reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.\nWednesday 9/22\nThe FOMC announces its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.\nGeneral Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.\nBoston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and Yum China Holdings host their 2021 investor days.\nTheBank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5% from July’s 599,000.\nThursday 9/23\nAccenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.\nSalesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.\nFriday 9/24\nKansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9,"COST":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CRM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881531768,"gmtCreate":1631359550054,"gmtModify":1631891625322,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881531768","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商 Epic Games 提起的一起案件中，美国地区法官 Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers 发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里抽取 30% 的佣金。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪机构 SensorTower 的数据显示，2020 年，苹果从 App Store 获得的总收入为 723 亿美元，费用估计为 217 亿美元，约占苹果总收入的 7%。其中包括美国 210 亿美元的支出，产生约 63 亿美元的费用，约占年化收入的 2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower 估计，2020 年 App Store 的手机游戏支出为 476 亿美元，产生的费用为 143 亿美元，略低于苹果总收入的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司 Loup Capital 的董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩-蒙斯特（Gene Munster）估计，App Store 约占公司利润的 14%。但他认为周五的裁决风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特认为大多数应用程序开发者将留在苹果系统内。他认为总收入 “最多 ”会受到 2% 的阻力，利润可能会受到 4% 的影响。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在这些变化的第一年之后，app store 的增长率将恢复正常。“底线是，这最多只是一年的逆风，并不会改变苹果未来 5 年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一个挫折，但最终的影响可能是可控的，因为苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务。他还指出，苹果实际上在案件中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利： 法官驳回了 Epic 关于 App Store 非法垄断的说法。Daryanani 估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为 2% 至 4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯告诉<i>巴伦</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到 3% 到 4% 的影响，并将这种风险描述为 “四舍五入误差”。虽然艾夫斯表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一混合决定消除了该股的悬而未决的问题，投资者可能会放心地搁置这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这一裁决对 Spotify Technology 和 Match Group 等公司来说是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌 3.3%，至 148.97 美元，而 Spotify 和 March 分别上涨 0.7% 和 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商 Epic Games 提起的一起案件中，美国地区法官 Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers 发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里抽取 30% 的佣金。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪机构 SensorTower 的数据显示，2020 年，苹果从 App Store 获得的总收入为 723 亿美元，费用估计为 217 亿美元，约占苹果总收入的 7%。其中包括美国 210 亿美元的支出，产生约 63 亿美元的费用，约占年化收入的 2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower 估计，2020 年 App Store 的手机游戏支出为 476 亿美元，产生的费用为 143 亿美元，略低于苹果总收入的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司 Loup Capital 的董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩-蒙斯特（Gene Munster）估计，App Store 约占公司利润的 14%。但他认为周五的裁决风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特认为大多数应用程序开发者将留在苹果系统内。他认为总收入 “最多 ”会受到 2% 的阻力，利润可能会受到 4% 的影响。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在这些变化的第一年之后，app store 的增长率将恢复正常。“底线是，这最多只是一年的逆风，并不会改变苹果未来 5 年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一个挫折，但最终的影响可能是可控的，因为苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务。他还指出，苹果实际上在案件中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利： 法官驳回了 Epic 关于 App Store 非法垄断的说法。Daryanani 估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为 2% 至 4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯告诉<i>巴伦</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到 3% 到 4% 的影响，并将这种风险描述为 “四舍五入误差”。虽然艾夫斯表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一混合决定消除了该股的悬而未决的问题，投资者可能会放心地搁置这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这一裁决对 Spotify Technology 和 Match Group 等公司来说是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌 3.3%，至 148.97 美元，而 Spotify 和 March 分别上涨 0.7% 和 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880442106,"gmtCreate":1631076191505,"gmtModify":1631891625331,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880442106","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814976832,"gmtCreate":1630754037226,"gmtModify":1631891625345,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814976832","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815261362,"gmtCreate":1630681184056,"gmtModify":1631891625358,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815261362","repostId":"2164872049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164872049","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630679468,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2164872049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164872049","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows.","content":"<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度营收突破十亿美元，但<b>缩放</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）周一下跌近 11%，此前该公司发布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率降至新低。简而言之，视频平台持续增长，但速度并不像分析师预期的那样过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>Q2 数字</h4>根据路孚特的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了路孚特分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长 48%，达到每股 1.36 美元，也超过了 Refinitiv 预期的 1.16 美元。自由现金流提高了 22%，达到 4.55 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高到74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，以及用于高级在线会议的Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商 Cvent，后者寻求通过 SPAC 上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom 预计增长 31%。调整后每股收益预计在 1.07 美元至 1.08 美元之间，收入为 10.15 亿美元至 10.20 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数量增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办公室的计划，该公司提高了预测。调整后每股收益预计在 4.75 美元至 4.79 美元之间，收入范围在 40.05 亿美元至 40.15 亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为 4.56 美元至 4.61 美元，收入为 39.8 亿美元至 39.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测超出了分析师对调整后每股收益和收入的普遍预期，分别为 4.67 亿美元和 40.1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指引假设直接和渠道业务增长强劲，但由于较小的客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也会疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom 的业务指标看起来很稳健，2,278 名客户为其年收入贡献了 10 万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有 10 名以上员工的客户数量突破 50 万大关，同比增长 36%。在过去 12 个月的基础上，美元净扩张率保持在 130% 以上。但对于华尔街来说，它的业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的一名经过核实的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应被解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何头寸。新闻稿 – 如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发联系方式：press@iamnewswire.com 投稿人 – IAM Newswire 接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为 IAM 记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度营收突破十亿美元，但<b>缩放</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）周一下跌近 11%，此前该公司发布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率降至新低。简而言之，视频平台持续增长，但速度并不像分析师预期的那样过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>Q2 数字</h4>根据路孚特的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了路孚特分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长 48%，达到每股 1.36 美元，也超过了 Refinitiv 预期的 1.16 美元。自由现金流提高了 22%，达到 4.55 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高到74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，以及用于高级在线会议的Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商 Cvent，后者寻求通过 SPAC 上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom 预计增长 31%。调整后每股收益预计在 1.07 美元至 1.08 美元之间，收入为 10.15 亿美元至 10.20 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数量增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办公室的计划，该公司提高了预测。调整后每股收益预计在 4.75 美元至 4.79 美元之间，收入范围在 40.05 亿美元至 40.15 亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为 4.56 美元至 4.61 美元，收入为 39.8 亿美元至 39.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测超出了分析师对调整后每股收益和收入的普遍预期，分别为 4.67 亿美元和 40.1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指引假设直接和渠道业务增长强劲，但由于较小的客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也会疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom 的业务指标看起来很稳健，2,278 名客户为其年收入贡献了 10 万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有 10 名以上员工的客户数量突破 50 万大关，同比增长 36%。在过去 12 个月的基础上，美元净扩张率保持在 130% 以上。但对于华尔街来说，它的业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的一名经过核实的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应被解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何头寸。新闻稿 – 如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发联系方式：press@iamnewswire.com 投稿人 – IAM Newswire 接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为 IAM 记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164872049","content_text":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.\nQ2 Figures\nFor the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter  and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.\nGross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.\nOutlook\nDuring the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.\nAs for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.\nFor the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.\nThe forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.\nThe guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.\nThe Verdict\nBy most standards, Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.\nThis article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com\nThe post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816915248,"gmtCreate":1630460100584,"gmtModify":1631891625366,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816915248","repostId":"1121927990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839914490,"gmtCreate":1629116226410,"gmtModify":1631891625378,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839914490","repostId":"1172009872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830144350,"gmtCreate":1629037286870,"gmtModify":1631891625390,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830144350","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","VAC":"万豪度假环球","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TREX":0.9,"UPWK":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"VAC":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"AMRS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897008755,"gmtCreate":1628861707877,"gmtModify":1631891625400,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897008755","repostId":"1121308321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892182018,"gmtCreate":1628643936034,"gmtModify":1631891625412,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892182018","repostId":"1113659361","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890784357,"gmtCreate":1628134590679,"gmtModify":1631891625457,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890784357","repostId":"1187380753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187380753","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628133104,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187380753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187380753","media":"Barrons","summary":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that ","content":"<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌 ARK Invest 创新驱动选股的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的 ETF 允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management 是一家小型基金公司，拥有 10 只 ETF，管理着 2.28 亿美元，已申请推出股票代码为 SARK 的空头 ARKK ETF。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约追踪价值 230 亿美元的 ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向 ETF 已经存在很长时间了，但大多数 ETF 都押注于大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像 ARK 这样的主动管理投资组合。“晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本-约翰逊（Ben Johnson）说：”据我所知，这是史无前例的。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这已经不是华尔街第一次打破常规，以利用投资者对 ARK 及其选股首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）日益增长的兴趣--无论是看涨还是看跌。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理的 ETF 挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上分享标的资产的收益，但有一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>它们传统上与标普500等单一股票或指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>ARKK ETF 空头备案之际，ARK 基金正在努力重现去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF 作为年度表现最佳的 ETF 之一，在 2020 年上涨了约 150%。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌 4.4%，比 2 月份的峰值暴跌 24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉（TSLA）和 Square（SQ）等高涨科技股的重注使该基金的投资组合过于昂贵和风险，这对其今年的业绩造成了压力，因为投资者青睐可能受益于大流行后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟 ETF 也可能不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>“晨星公司的约翰逊说：”通过卖空这些基金，你从这些看跌信念中获利的几率非常小，“上涨空间是有限的，你能得到的最好结果就是100%的投资回报，而这前提是方舟公司将其投资组合彻底崩溃，但这是不可能发生的。另一方面，最糟糕的情况是，如果方舟公司再像去年那样度过一年。你会被彻底烧死的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，ARK 的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空。FactSet 的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF 的空头权益已从年初的 2% 增至其总流通股的近 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者自己没有能力或渠道做空股票或 ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司认为这是一个机会。“该公司首席执行官马特-塔特尔（Matt Tuttle）在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：”显然，人们越来越倾向于做空不盈利的科技公司，“我们的目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头 ARKK ETF 计划收取 0.75% 的运营费用，与 ARK Innovation ETF 的费用比率一致。约翰逊说，与跟踪股票指数或商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难返回与方舟创新公司业绩完全相反的结果。<b>:</b>“你是在押注一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你试图这样做时，会有一定程度的滑点。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，空头 ARKK ETF 仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准该基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYou Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌 ARK Invest 创新驱动选股的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的 ETF 允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management 是一家小型基金公司，拥有 10 只 ETF，管理着 2.28 亿美元，已申请推出股票代码为 SARK 的空头 ARKK ETF。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约追踪价值 230 亿美元的 ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向 ETF 已经存在很长时间了，但大多数 ETF 都押注于大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像 ARK 这样的主动管理投资组合。“晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本-约翰逊（Ben Johnson）说：”据我所知，这是史无前例的。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这已经不是华尔街第一次打破常规，以利用投资者对 ARK 及其选股首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）日益增长的兴趣--无论是看涨还是看跌。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理的 ETF 挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上分享标的资产的收益，但有一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>它们传统上与标普500等单一股票或指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>ARKK ETF 空头备案之际，ARK 基金正在努力重现去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF 作为年度表现最佳的 ETF 之一，在 2020 年上涨了约 150%。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌 4.4%，比 2 月份的峰值暴跌 24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉（TSLA）和 Square（SQ）等高涨科技股的重注使该基金的投资组合过于昂贵和风险，这对其今年的业绩造成了压力，因为投资者青睐可能受益于大流行后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟 ETF 也可能不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>“晨星公司的约翰逊说：”通过卖空这些基金，你从这些看跌信念中获利的几率非常小，“上涨空间是有限的，你能得到的最好结果就是100%的投资回报，而这前提是方舟公司将其投资组合彻底崩溃，但这是不可能发生的。另一方面，最糟糕的情况是，如果方舟公司再像去年那样度过一年。你会被彻底烧死的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，ARK 的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空。FactSet 的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF 的空头权益已从年初的 2% 增至其总流通股的近 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者自己没有能力或渠道做空股票或 ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司认为这是一个机会。“该公司首席执行官马特-塔特尔（Matt Tuttle）在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：”显然，人们越来越倾向于做空不盈利的科技公司，“我们的目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头 ARKK ETF 计划收取 0.75% 的运营费用，与 ARK Innovation ETF 的费用比率一致。约翰逊说，与跟踪股票指数或商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难返回与方舟创新公司业绩完全相反的结果。<b>:</b>“你是在押注一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你试图这样做时，会有一定程度的滑点。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，空头 ARKK ETF 仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准该基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187380753","content_text":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.\nTuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nInverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.\nIt’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.\nEarlier this year, big investment banks started issuing structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection.They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the S&P 500.\nThe filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.\nSome investors think Wood’s heavy bets on highflying tech stockslike Tesla(TSLA) and Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.\nARK did not respond to a request for comment.\nEven for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.\n“The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”\nStill, ARK doubters already are borrowing shares and selling the short themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.\nMany noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”\nThe newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson:“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”\nTo be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806934374,"gmtCreate":1627623415498,"gmtModify":1633757659265,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806934374","repostId":"1183715018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127504124,"gmtCreate":1624854515068,"gmtModify":1633947907366,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127504124","repostId":"2146200677","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130366832,"gmtCreate":1621513815626,"gmtModify":1634188537082,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls!","listText":"Like and comment pls!","text":"Like and comment pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130366832","repostId":"2136924532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":880442106,"gmtCreate":1631076191505,"gmtModify":1631891625331,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880442106","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890784357,"gmtCreate":1628134590679,"gmtModify":1631891625457,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890784357","repostId":"1187380753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187380753","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628133104,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187380753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187380753","media":"Barrons","summary":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that ","content":"<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌 ARK Invest 创新驱动选股的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的 ETF 允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management 是一家小型基金公司，拥有 10 只 ETF，管理着 2.28 亿美元，已申请推出股票代码为 SARK 的空头 ARKK ETF。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约追踪价值 230 亿美元的 ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向 ETF 已经存在很长时间了，但大多数 ETF 都押注于大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像 ARK 这样的主动管理投资组合。“晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本-约翰逊（Ben Johnson）说：”据我所知，这是史无前例的。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这已经不是华尔街第一次打破常规，以利用投资者对 ARK 及其选股首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）日益增长的兴趣--无论是看涨还是看跌。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理的 ETF 挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上分享标的资产的收益，但有一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>它们传统上与标普500等单一股票或指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>ARKK ETF 空头备案之际，ARK 基金正在努力重现去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF 作为年度表现最佳的 ETF 之一，在 2020 年上涨了约 150%。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌 4.4%，比 2 月份的峰值暴跌 24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉（TSLA）和 Square（SQ）等高涨科技股的重注使该基金的投资组合过于昂贵和风险，这对其今年的业绩造成了压力，因为投资者青睐可能受益于大流行后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟 ETF 也可能不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>“晨星公司的约翰逊说：”通过卖空这些基金，你从这些看跌信念中获利的几率非常小，“上涨空间是有限的，你能得到的最好结果就是100%的投资回报，而这前提是方舟公司将其投资组合彻底崩溃，但这是不可能发生的。另一方面，最糟糕的情况是，如果方舟公司再像去年那样度过一年。你会被彻底烧死的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，ARK 的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空。FactSet 的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF 的空头权益已从年初的 2% 增至其总流通股的近 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者自己没有能力或渠道做空股票或 ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司认为这是一个机会。“该公司首席执行官马特-塔特尔（Matt Tuttle）在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：”显然，人们越来越倾向于做空不盈利的科技公司，“我们的目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头 ARKK ETF 计划收取 0.75% 的运营费用，与 ARK Innovation ETF 的费用比率一致。约翰逊说，与跟踪股票指数或商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难返回与方舟创新公司业绩完全相反的结果。<b>:</b>“你是在押注一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你试图这样做时，会有一定程度的滑点。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，空头 ARKK ETF 仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准该基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYou Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>您可以做空凯西-伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌 ARK Invest 创新驱动选股的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的 ETF 允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management 是一家小型基金公司，拥有 10 只 ETF，管理着 2.28 亿美元，已申请推出股票代码为 SARK 的空头 ARKK ETF。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约追踪价值 230 亿美元的 ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向 ETF 已经存在很长时间了，但大多数 ETF 都押注于大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像 ARK 这样的主动管理投资组合。“晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本-约翰逊（Ben Johnson）说：”据我所知，这是史无前例的。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这已经不是华尔街第一次打破常规，以利用投资者对 ARK 及其选股首席执行官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）日益增长的兴趣--无论是看涨还是看跌。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理的 ETF 挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上分享标的资产的收益，但有一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>它们传统上与标普500等单一股票或指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>ARKK ETF 空头备案之际，ARK 基金正在努力重现去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF 作为年度表现最佳的 ETF 之一，在 2020 年上涨了约 150%。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌 4.4%，比 2 月份的峰值暴跌 24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉（TSLA）和 Square（SQ）等高涨科技股的重注使该基金的投资组合过于昂贵和风险，这对其今年的业绩造成了压力，因为投资者青睐可能受益于大流行后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟 ETF 也可能不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>“晨星公司的约翰逊说：”通过卖空这些基金，你从这些看跌信念中获利的几率非常小，“上涨空间是有限的，你能得到的最好结果就是100%的投资回报，而这前提是方舟公司将其投资组合彻底崩溃，但这是不可能发生的。另一方面，最糟糕的情况是，如果方舟公司再像去年那样度过一年。你会被彻底烧死的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，ARK 的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空。FactSet 的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF 的空头权益已从年初的 2% 增至其总流通股的近 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者自己没有能力或渠道做空股票或 ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司认为这是一个机会。“该公司首席执行官马特-塔特尔（Matt Tuttle）在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：”显然，人们越来越倾向于做空不盈利的科技公司，“我们的目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头 ARKK ETF 计划收取 0.75% 的运营费用，与 ARK Innovation ETF 的费用比率一致。约翰逊说，与跟踪股票指数或商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难返回与方舟创新公司业绩完全相反的结果。<b>:</b>“你是在押注一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你试图这样做时，会有一定程度的滑点。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，空头 ARKK ETF 仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准该基金。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187380753","content_text":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.\nTuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nInverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.\nIt’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.\nEarlier this year, big investment banks started issuing structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection.They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the S&P 500.\nThe filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.\nSome investors think Wood’s heavy bets on highflying tech stockslike Tesla(TSLA) and Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.\nARK did not respond to a request for comment.\nEven for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.\n“The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”\nStill, ARK doubters already are borrowing shares and selling the short themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.\nMany noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”\nThe newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson:“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”\nTo be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864209351,"gmtCreate":1633101363666,"gmtModify":1633101413514,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864209351","repostId":"2172963836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862554803,"gmtCreate":1632894451863,"gmtModify":1632894452049,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862554803","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815261362,"gmtCreate":1630681184056,"gmtModify":1631891625358,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815261362","repostId":"2164872049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164872049","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630679468,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2164872049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164872049","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows.","content":"<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度营收突破十亿美元，但<b>缩放</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）周一下跌近 11%，此前该公司发布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率降至新低。简而言之，视频平台持续增长，但速度并不像分析师预期的那样过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>Q2 数字</h4>根据路孚特的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了路孚特分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长 48%，达到每股 1.36 美元，也超过了 Refinitiv 预期的 1.16 美元。自由现金流提高了 22%，达到 4.55 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高到74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，以及用于高级在线会议的Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商 Cvent，后者寻求通过 SPAC 上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom 预计增长 31%。调整后每股收益预计在 1.07 美元至 1.08 美元之间，收入为 10.15 亿美元至 10.20 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数量增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办公室的计划，该公司提高了预测。调整后每股收益预计在 4.75 美元至 4.79 美元之间，收入范围在 40.05 亿美元至 40.15 亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为 4.56 美元至 4.61 美元，收入为 39.8 亿美元至 39.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测超出了分析师对调整后每股收益和收入的普遍预期，分别为 4.67 亿美元和 40.1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指引假设直接和渠道业务增长强劲，但由于较小的客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也会疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom 的业务指标看起来很稳健，2,278 名客户为其年收入贡献了 10 万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有 10 名以上员工的客户数量突破 50 万大关，同比增长 36%。在过去 12 个月的基础上，美元净扩张率保持在 130% 以上。但对于华尔街来说，它的业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的一名经过核实的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应被解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何头寸。新闻稿 – 如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发联系方式：press@iamnewswire.com 投稿人 – IAM Newswire 接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为 IAM 记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大 Zoom 可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度营收突破十亿美元，但<b>缩放</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）周一下跌近 11%，此前该公司发布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率降至新低。简而言之，视频平台持续增长，但速度并不像分析师预期的那样过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>Q2 数字</h4>根据路孚特的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了路孚特分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长 48%，达到每股 1.36 美元，也超过了 Refinitiv 预期的 1.16 美元。自由现金流提高了 22%，达到 4.55 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高到74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，以及用于高级在线会议的Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商 Cvent，后者寻求通过 SPAC 上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom 预计增长 31%。调整后每股收益预计在 1.07 美元至 1.08 美元之间，收入为 10.15 亿美元至 10.20 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数量增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办公室的计划，该公司提高了预测。调整后每股收益预计在 4.75 美元至 4.79 美元之间，收入范围在 40.05 亿美元至 40.15 亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为 4.56 美元至 4.61 美元，收入为 39.8 亿美元至 39.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测超出了分析师对调整后每股收益和收入的普遍预期，分别为 4.67 亿美元和 40.1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指引假设直接和渠道业务增长强劲，但由于较小的客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也会疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom 的业务指标看起来很稳健，2,278 名客户为其年收入贡献了 10 万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有 10 名以上员工的客户数量突破 50 万大关，同比增长 36%。在过去 12 个月的基础上，美元净扩张率保持在 130% 以上。但对于华尔街来说，它的业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的一名经过核实的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应被解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何头寸。新闻稿 – 如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发联系方式：press@iamnewswire.com 投稿人 – IAM Newswire 接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为 IAM 记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164872049","content_text":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.\nQ2 Figures\nFor the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter  and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.\nGross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.\nOutlook\nDuring the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.\nAs for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.\nFor the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.\nThe forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.\nThe guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.\nThe Verdict\nBy most standards, Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.\nThis article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com\nThe post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863124815,"gmtCreate":1632366408837,"gmtModify":1632800873664,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863124815","repostId":"2169650271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814976832,"gmtCreate":1630754037226,"gmtModify":1631891625345,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814976832","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830144350,"gmtCreate":1629037286870,"gmtModify":1631891625390,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830144350","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","VAC":"万豪度假环球","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TREX":0.9,"UPWK":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"VAC":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"AMRS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":822236974,"gmtCreate":1634133690364,"gmtModify":1634133690425,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822236974","repostId":"1113013066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113013066","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634132611,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113013066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113013066","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could","content":"<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 股价在早盘交易中飙升 4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司所做的不仅仅是电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited 的 Garena 部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏 FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 公布 2021 年第二季度收入为 23 亿美元，同比增长 159%。需要注意的一件重要事情是，尽管该公司报告期内净亏损，但其活跃用户数量和季度付费用户数量有所增加。它刚刚在新市场起步，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，为盈利铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited 股价早盘飙升 4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 股价在早盘交易中飙升 4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司所做的不仅仅是电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited 的 Garena 部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏 FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 公布 2021 年第二季度收入为 23 亿美元，同比增长 159%。需要注意的一件重要事情是，尽管该公司报告期内净亏损，但其活跃用户数量和季度付费用户数量有所增加。它刚刚在新市场起步，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，为盈利铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113013066","content_text":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains one of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.\nThe company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.\nSea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881531768,"gmtCreate":1631359550054,"gmtModify":1631891625322,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881531768","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商 Epic Games 提起的一起案件中，美国地区法官 Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers 发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里抽取 30% 的佣金。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪机构 SensorTower 的数据显示，2020 年，苹果从 App Store 获得的总收入为 723 亿美元，费用估计为 217 亿美元，约占苹果总收入的 7%。其中包括美国 210 亿美元的支出，产生约 63 亿美元的费用，约占年化收入的 2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower 估计，2020 年 App Store 的手机游戏支出为 476 亿美元，产生的费用为 143 亿美元，略低于苹果总收入的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司 Loup Capital 的董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩-蒙斯特（Gene Munster）估计，App Store 约占公司利润的 14%。但他认为周五的裁决风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特认为大多数应用程序开发者将留在苹果系统内。他认为总收入 “最多 ”会受到 2% 的阻力，利润可能会受到 4% 的影响。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在这些变化的第一年之后，app store 的增长率将恢复正常。“底线是，这最多只是一年的逆风，并不会改变苹果未来 5 年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一个挫折，但最终的影响可能是可控的，因为苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务。他还指出，苹果实际上在案件中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利： 法官驳回了 Epic 关于 App Store 非法垄断的说法。Daryanani 估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为 2% 至 4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯告诉<i>巴伦</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到 3% 到 4% 的影响，并将这种风险描述为 “四舍五入误差”。虽然艾夫斯表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一混合决定消除了该股的悬而未决的问题，投资者可能会放心地搁置这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这一裁决对 Spotify Technology 和 Match Group 等公司来说是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌 3.3%，至 148.97 美元，而 Spotify 和 March 分别上涨 0.7% 和 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商 Epic Games 提起的一起案件中，美国地区法官 Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers 发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里抽取 30% 的佣金。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪机构 SensorTower 的数据显示，2020 年，苹果从 App Store 获得的总收入为 723 亿美元，费用估计为 217 亿美元，约占苹果总收入的 7%。其中包括美国 210 亿美元的支出，产生约 63 亿美元的费用，约占年化收入的 2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower 估计，2020 年 App Store 的手机游戏支出为 476 亿美元，产生的费用为 143 亿美元，略低于苹果总收入的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司 Loup Capital 的董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩-蒙斯特（Gene Munster）估计，App Store 约占公司利润的 14%。但他认为周五的裁决风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特认为大多数应用程序开发者将留在苹果系统内。他认为总收入 “最多 ”会受到 2% 的阻力，利润可能会受到 4% 的影响。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在这些变化的第一年之后，app store 的增长率将恢复正常。“底线是，这最多只是一年的逆风，并不会改变苹果未来 5 年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一个挫折，但最终的影响可能是可控的，因为苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务。他还指出，苹果实际上在案件中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利： 法官驳回了 Epic 关于 App Store 非法垄断的说法。Daryanani 估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为 2% 至 4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯告诉<i>巴伦</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到 3% 到 4% 的影响，并将这种风险描述为 “四舍五入误差”。虽然艾夫斯表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一混合决定消除了该股的悬而未决的问题，投资者可能会放心地搁置这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这一裁决对 Spotify Technology 和 Match Group 等公司来说是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌 3.3%，至 148.97 美元，而 Spotify 和 March 分别上涨 0.7% 和 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}