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2021-06-15

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2021-06-14

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Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>

2021-06-14

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2021-06-14

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2021-06-13

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2021-06-12

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2021-06-07

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2021-06-07

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BlackBerry, AMC Remain Top WallStreetBets Interests Heading Into The Week, As GameStop Lags Behind<blockquote>由于游戏驿站落后，黑莓和 AMC 本周仍然是华尔街投注的首要兴趣</blockquote>

2021-06-05

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The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>

2021-06-04

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-26

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2021-05-26

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2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

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These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108874297","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"These tech leaders are seeing business trends pick up and they trade at reasonable valuations.","content":"<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>纳斯达克-100技术板块</b>该指数在过去五年中表现出色，回报率为 237%。但今年迄今为止，从昂贵的成长型股票到价值型股票的转变导致许多在 2020 年表现优异的科技公司的波动性更高。</blockquote></p><p> Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>两只逆势而上的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和<b>戴尔科技</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）。这就是为什么这些股票在 2021 年可能有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet 的股价跑赢了大盘，今年迄今已上涨 42%。这家在线科技巨头最初报告称，由于疫情放缓了数字广告支出，而数字广告支出推动了谷歌搜索和YouTube的大部分收入，2020年增长缓慢。但广告支出在过去几个季度一直在强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度营收同比增长34%，高于去年同期的15%，越来越多的人依靠搜索来查找疫苗信息和寻找工作，这正在提振谷歌在搜索业务的广告收入。随着越来越多的人转向视频平台观看评论和购买产品，YouTube广告支出也在上升。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度财报看涨期权上，Alphabet 首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 表示：“我们看到 TrueView 的动作广告发展势头强劲，使用该格式的广告商数量在过去一年中翻了一番。”</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也是蓬勃发展的云服务市场的领导者，谷歌云收入同比激增 46%。这一业绩值得注意的是，谷歌云的增长速度超过了整个云市场。这对于继续落后于领导者的谷歌来说是一个重要的市场份额增长，<b>微软</b>和<b>亚马逊</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，Alphabet拥有广泛的竞争护城河，拥有庞大的用户群，每天都依赖 Gmail、谷歌地图、搜索和 YouTube。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当然，政府监管在这里是一个长期威胁。Alphabet刚刚与法国监管机构达成和解，将因反垄断纠纷支付 2.7 亿美元罚款。但这种监管风险似乎已经体现在该股的估值上。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这只 FAANG 股票未来五年每股收益的年化增长率将达到 21%，这足以支撑该股当前价格下 28.7 的远期市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 戴尔科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者还记得几十年前个人电脑繁荣时期的戴尔。虽然该公司受益于第一季度健康的个人电脑市场，但投资者应考虑购买股票的原因是戴尔信息技术业务的发展势头，以及即将到来的其他催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 财年上半年收入下降 1% 后，戴尔在 2021 财年第四季度收入加速至 9%，在 2022 财年第一季度收入加速至 12%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>首席运营官杰夫·克拉克 (Jeff Clarke) 在收益报告中表示：“全球数字化转型大幅加速，您可以从我们的业绩中看到这一点，第一季度收入达到创纪录的 245 亿美元。”</blockquote></p><p> The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p><p><blockquote>该股较一年前的低点翻了一番，反映出该公司走出疫情后前景有所改善。但出于几个原因，它仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p><p><blockquote>首先，戴尔正在迅速偿还债务，截至 4 月底，戴尔的债务为 379 亿美元，低于 1 月底的 416 亿美元。债务减少不仅降低了戴尔的财务风险，还促进了盈利增长，因为债务减少也意味着利息支出减少。最近债务的减少使上季度的利息支出减少了约 1.62 亿美元，净利润增长了 59%。</blockquote></p><p> Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔还将剥离其 81% 的股权<b>VMware</b>这将提供93亿至97亿美元的收入，以加速债务的减少。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p><p><blockquote>最终，估值才是最重要的。该股的市盈率较低，为预期收益的12倍。业务增长的改善、债务的降低和便宜的市盈率的结合使其成为现在考虑购买的顶级科技股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>纳斯达克-100技术板块</b>该指数在过去五年中表现出色，回报率为 237%。但今年迄今为止，从昂贵的成长型股票到价值型股票的转变导致许多在 2020 年表现优异的科技公司的波动性更高。</blockquote></p><p> Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>两只逆势而上的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和<b>戴尔科技</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）。这就是为什么这些股票在 2021 年可能有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet 的股价跑赢了大盘，今年迄今已上涨 42%。这家在线科技巨头最初报告称，由于疫情放缓了数字广告支出，而数字广告支出推动了谷歌搜索和YouTube的大部分收入，2020年增长缓慢。但广告支出在过去几个季度一直在强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度营收同比增长34%，高于去年同期的15%，越来越多的人依靠搜索来查找疫苗信息和寻找工作，这正在提振谷歌在搜索业务的广告收入。随着越来越多的人转向视频平台观看评论和购买产品，YouTube广告支出也在上升。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度财报看涨期权上，Alphabet 首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 表示：“我们看到 TrueView 的动作广告发展势头强劲，使用该格式的广告商数量在过去一年中翻了一番。”</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也是蓬勃发展的云服务市场的领导者，谷歌云收入同比激增 46%。这一业绩值得注意的是，谷歌云的增长速度超过了整个云市场。这对于继续落后于领导者的谷歌来说是一个重要的市场份额增长，<b>微软</b>和<b>亚马逊</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，Alphabet拥有广泛的竞争护城河，拥有庞大的用户群，每天都依赖 Gmail、谷歌地图、搜索和 YouTube。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当然，政府监管在这里是一个长期威胁。Alphabet刚刚与法国监管机构达成和解，将因反垄断纠纷支付 2.7 亿美元罚款。但这种监管风险似乎已经体现在该股的估值上。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这只 FAANG 股票未来五年每股收益的年化增长率将达到 21%，这足以支撑该股当前价格下 28.7 的远期市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 戴尔科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者还记得几十年前个人电脑繁荣时期的戴尔。虽然该公司受益于第一季度健康的个人电脑市场，但投资者应考虑购买股票的原因是戴尔信息技术业务的发展势头，以及即将到来的其他催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 财年上半年收入下降 1% 后，戴尔在 2021 财年第四季度收入加速至 9%，在 2022 财年第一季度收入加速至 12%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>首席运营官杰夫·克拉克 (Jeff Clarke) 在收益报告中表示：“全球数字化转型大幅加速，您可以从我们的业绩中看到这一点，第一季度收入达到创纪录的 245 亿美元。”</blockquote></p><p> The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p><p><blockquote>该股较一年前的低点翻了一番，反映出该公司走出疫情后前景有所改善。但出于几个原因，它仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p><p><blockquote>首先，戴尔正在迅速偿还债务，截至 4 月底，戴尔的债务为 379 亿美元，低于 1 月底的 416 亿美元。债务减少不仅降低了戴尔的财务风险，还促进了盈利增长，因为债务减少也意味着利息支出减少。最近债务的减少使上季度的利息支出减少了约 1.62 亿美元，净利润增长了 59%。</blockquote></p><p> Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔还将剥离其 81% 的股权<b>VMware</b>这将提供93亿至97亿美元的收入，以加速债务的减少。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p><p><blockquote>最终，估值才是最重要的。该股的市盈率较低，为预期收益的12倍。业务增长的改善、债务的降低和便宜的市盈率的结合使其成为现在考虑购买的顶级科技股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","DELL":"戴尔","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108874297","content_text":"The NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.\nTwo stocks that are bucking that trend are Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Dell Technologies(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Alphabet\nAlphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020 as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.\nIn the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter. More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.\nDuring the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"\nAlphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall. This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,Microsoft and Amazon.\nOverall, Alphabet has a wide competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.\nOf course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.\nAnalysts expect this FAANG stock to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.\n2. Dell Technologies\nMany investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter, the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.\nAfter posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.\n\"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.\nThe stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic. But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.\nFirst, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January. Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense. The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.\nDell is also spinning off its 81% interest in VMware, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.\nUltimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates. A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185218368,"gmtCreate":1623652362654,"gmtModify":1634030610493,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment n like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Comment n like pls&nbsp;","text":"Comment n like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185218368","repostId":"1149517771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185653596,"gmtCreate":1623647579615,"gmtModify":1634030660451,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185653596","repostId":"1110781663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182557510,"gmtCreate":1623591985030,"gmtModify":1634031355784,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment n like pls","listText":"Comment n like pls","text":"Comment n like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182557510","repostId":"2143788707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186650630,"gmtCreate":1623494924820,"gmtModify":1634032377116,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment n like pls","listText":"Comment n like pls","text":"Comment n like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186650630","repostId":"1133871419","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114367367,"gmtCreate":1623052041259,"gmtModify":1631883954549,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Best article","listText":"Best article","text":"Best article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114367367","repostId":"1132704789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114333890,"gmtCreate":1623048566310,"gmtModify":1634095859215,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Comment n like pls","listText":"&nbsp;Comment n like pls","text":"Comment n like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114333890","repostId":"1157387105","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157387105","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623047155,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157387105?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackBerry, AMC Remain Top WallStreetBets Interests Heading Into The Week, As GameStop Lags Behind<blockquote>由于游戏驿站落后，黑莓和 AMC 本周仍然是华尔街投注的首要兴趣</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157387105","media":"benzinga","summary":"Blackberry Ltd and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc were, by far, the most-mentioned stocks on the Red","content":"<p><div> Blackberry Ltd and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc were, by far, the most-mentioned stocks on the Reddit investor forum r/WallStreetBets or WSB over a seven-day period, as on the eve of a fresh trading...</p><p><blockquote><div>到目前为止，黑莓有限公司和AMC院线控股公司是Reddit投资者论坛r/WallStreetBets或WSB上被提及最多的股票，就像在新交易的前夕一样……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21444484/blackberry-amc-remain-top-wallstreetbets-interests-heading-into-the-week-as-gamestop-lags-behind\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21444484/blackberry-amc-remain-top-wallstreetbets-interests-heading-into-the-week-as-gamestop-lags-behind\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry, AMC Remain Top WallStreetBets Interests Heading Into The Week, As GameStop Lags Behind<blockquote>由于游戏驿站落后，黑莓和 AMC 本周仍然是华尔街投注的首要兴趣</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry, AMC Remain Top WallStreetBets Interests Heading Into The Week, As GameStop Lags Behind<blockquote>由于游戏驿站落后，黑莓和 AMC 本周仍然是华尔街投注的首要兴趣</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 14:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Blackberry Ltd and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc were, by far, the most-mentioned stocks on the Reddit investor forum r/WallStreetBets or WSB over a seven-day period, as on the eve of a fresh trading...</p><p><blockquote><div>到目前为止，黑莓有限公司和AMC院线控股公司是Reddit投资者论坛r/WallStreetBets或WSB上被提及最多的股票，就像在新交易的前夕一样……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21444484/blackberry-amc-remain-top-wallstreetbets-interests-heading-into-the-week-as-gamestop-lags-behind\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21444484/blackberry-amc-remain-top-wallstreetbets-interests-heading-into-the-week-as-gamestop-lags-behind\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21444484/blackberry-amc-remain-top-wallstreetbets-interests-heading-into-the-week-as-gamestop-lags-behind\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21444484/blackberry-amc-remain-top-wallstreetbets-interests-heading-into-the-week-as-gamestop-lags-behind","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157387105","content_text":"Blackberry Ltd and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc were, by far, the most-mentioned stocks on the Reddit investor forum r/WallStreetBets or WSB over a seven-day period, as on the eve of a fresh trading week, as per Quiver Quantitative Data.\nWhat Happened:WSB is best-known for the retail investor-led short squeezes in GameStop Corp and others.\nGameStop was the third most discussed over a seven-day period on WSB.\nAs of press time on Sunday evening, BlackBerry attracted 603 mentions on WSB over 24 hours, followed by AMC at 531.\nClean Energy Fuels Corp was on the third spot with 343 mentions, while GameStop with 281 mentions took the fourth spot.\nOver a 7-day period, BB and AMC seemed to hound all the attention, as per data compiled by Quiver Quantitative.\nOn Friday, AMC shares closed 6.68% lower at $47.91 and fell 8.7% in the after-hours session to $43.74. On the same day, Blackberry shares closed 12.72% lower at $13.86 and fell another 3.54% in the after-hours trading to $13.37.\nGameStop shares closed 3.8% lower at $248.36 on Friday in the regular session and another almost 0.7% in the after-hours session.\nWhy It Matters:AMC has skyrocketed a whopping 2,159.9% since the year began, while GameStop has shot up 1,218.3%. BlackBerry too has shot up 109% in the same period.\nAt the beginning of last week, AMC’s valuation shot past GameStop amid increasing interestin so-called stonks or shares favored by the retail crowd.\nAMC has benefitted from an increased ability to repay its debts and optimism surrounding the return of moviegoersto theatres in the post-pandemic era.\nHowever, as AMC stock cooled off late in the week, BlackBerry began to pick up steamon WSB with the company being mentioned in several high-profile posts on the forum.\nInvestors can expect some news out of GameStop as the company is set to report its first-quarter results on Wednesday after market close.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112587854,"gmtCreate":1622887162078,"gmtModify":1634097055724,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment n like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Comment n like pls&nbsp;","text":"Comment n like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112587854","repostId":"1162130057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162130057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622862397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162130057?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162130057","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks hav","content":"<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162130057","content_text":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided\nGETTY IMAGES\nStock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.\nGoing forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”\nBy definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.\nSuch slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:\n\nValuation changes: The S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.\nIncreasing profit margins: The S&P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nNet buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.\n\nTo appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.\nProjecting the future\nThe picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.\nMore likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.\nOne can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.\nOne measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.\n\nFor example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.\n“The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.\nThe bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116328482,"gmtCreate":1622775684046,"gmtModify":1634098119659,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583823859758620","idStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment n like pls","listText":"Comment n like pls","text":"Comment n like 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185218457","repostId":"1108874297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108874297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623648201,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108874297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108874297","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"These tech leaders are seeing business trends pick up and they trade at reasonable valuations.","content":"<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>纳斯达克-100技术板块</b>该指数在过去五年中表现出色，回报率为 237%。但今年迄今为止，从昂贵的成长型股票到价值型股票的转变导致许多在 2020 年表现优异的科技公司的波动性更高。</blockquote></p><p> Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>两只逆势而上的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和<b>戴尔科技</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）。这就是为什么这些股票在 2021 年可能有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet 的股价跑赢了大盘，今年迄今已上涨 42%。这家在线科技巨头最初报告称，由于疫情放缓了数字广告支出，而数字广告支出推动了谷歌搜索和YouTube的大部分收入，2020年增长缓慢。但广告支出在过去几个季度一直在强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度营收同比增长34%，高于去年同期的15%，越来越多的人依靠搜索来查找疫苗信息和寻找工作，这正在提振谷歌在搜索业务的广告收入。随着越来越多的人转向视频平台观看评论和购买产品，YouTube广告支出也在上升。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度财报看涨期权上，Alphabet 首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 表示：“我们看到 TrueView 的动作广告发展势头强劲，使用该格式的广告商数量在过去一年中翻了一番。”</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也是蓬勃发展的云服务市场的领导者，谷歌云收入同比激增 46%。这一业绩值得注意的是，谷歌云的增长速度超过了整个云市场。这对于继续落后于领导者的谷歌来说是一个重要的市场份额增长，<b>微软</b>和<b>亚马逊</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，Alphabet拥有广泛的竞争护城河，拥有庞大的用户群，每天都依赖 Gmail、谷歌地图、搜索和 YouTube。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当然，政府监管在这里是一个长期威胁。Alphabet刚刚与法国监管机构达成和解，将因反垄断纠纷支付 2.7 亿美元罚款。但这种监管风险似乎已经体现在该股的估值上。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这只 FAANG 股票未来五年每股收益的年化增长率将达到 21%，这足以支撑该股当前价格下 28.7 的远期市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 戴尔科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者还记得几十年前个人电脑繁荣时期的戴尔。虽然该公司受益于第一季度健康的个人电脑市场，但投资者应考虑购买股票的原因是戴尔信息技术业务的发展势头，以及即将到来的其他催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 财年上半年收入下降 1% 后，戴尔在 2021 财年第四季度收入加速至 9%，在 2022 财年第一季度收入加速至 12%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>首席运营官杰夫·克拉克 (Jeff Clarke) 在收益报告中表示：“全球数字化转型大幅加速，您可以从我们的业绩中看到这一点，第一季度收入达到创纪录的 245 亿美元。”</blockquote></p><p> The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p><p><blockquote>该股较一年前的低点翻了一番，反映出该公司走出疫情后前景有所改善。但出于几个原因，它仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p><p><blockquote>首先，戴尔正在迅速偿还债务，截至 4 月底，戴尔的债务为 379 亿美元，低于 1 月底的 416 亿美元。债务减少不仅降低了戴尔的财务风险，还促进了盈利增长，因为债务减少也意味着利息支出减少。最近债务的减少使上季度的利息支出减少了约 1.62 亿美元，净利润增长了 59%。</blockquote></p><p> Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔还将剥离其 81% 的股权<b>VMware</b>这将提供93亿至97亿美元的收入，以加速债务的减少。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p><p><blockquote>最终，估值才是最重要的。该股的市盈率较低，为预期收益的12倍。业务增长的改善、债务的降低和便宜的市盈率的结合使其成为现在考虑购买的顶级科技股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>纳斯达克-100技术板块</b>该指数在过去五年中表现出色，回报率为 237%。但今年迄今为止，从昂贵的成长型股票到价值型股票的转变导致许多在 2020 年表现优异的科技公司的波动性更高。</blockquote></p><p> Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>两只逆势而上的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和<b>戴尔科技</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）。这就是为什么这些股票在 2021 年可能有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet 的股价跑赢了大盘，今年迄今已上涨 42%。这家在线科技巨头最初报告称，由于疫情放缓了数字广告支出，而数字广告支出推动了谷歌搜索和YouTube的大部分收入，2020年增长缓慢。但广告支出在过去几个季度一直在强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度营收同比增长34%，高于去年同期的15%，越来越多的人依靠搜索来查找疫苗信息和寻找工作，这正在提振谷歌在搜索业务的广告收入。随着越来越多的人转向视频平台观看评论和购买产品，YouTube广告支出也在上升。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度财报看涨期权上，Alphabet 首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 表示：“我们看到 TrueView 的动作广告发展势头强劲，使用该格式的广告商数量在过去一年中翻了一番。”</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也是蓬勃发展的云服务市场的领导者，谷歌云收入同比激增 46%。这一业绩值得注意的是，谷歌云的增长速度超过了整个云市场。这对于继续落后于领导者的谷歌来说是一个重要的市场份额增长，<b>微软</b>和<b>亚马逊</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，Alphabet拥有广泛的竞争护城河，拥有庞大的用户群，每天都依赖 Gmail、谷歌地图、搜索和 YouTube。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当然，政府监管在这里是一个长期威胁。Alphabet刚刚与法国监管机构达成和解，将因反垄断纠纷支付 2.7 亿美元罚款。但这种监管风险似乎已经体现在该股的估值上。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这只 FAANG 股票未来五年每股收益的年化增长率将达到 21%，这足以支撑该股当前价格下 28.7 的远期市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 戴尔科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者还记得几十年前个人电脑繁荣时期的戴尔。虽然该公司受益于第一季度健康的个人电脑市场，但投资者应考虑购买股票的原因是戴尔信息技术业务的发展势头，以及即将到来的其他催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 财年上半年收入下降 1% 后，戴尔在 2021 财年第四季度收入加速至 9%，在 2022 财年第一季度收入加速至 12%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>首席运营官杰夫·克拉克 (Jeff Clarke) 在收益报告中表示：“全球数字化转型大幅加速，您可以从我们的业绩中看到这一点，第一季度收入达到创纪录的 245 亿美元。”</blockquote></p><p> The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p><p><blockquote>该股较一年前的低点翻了一番，反映出该公司走出疫情后前景有所改善。但出于几个原因，它仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p><p><blockquote>首先，戴尔正在迅速偿还债务，截至 4 月底，戴尔的债务为 379 亿美元，低于 1 月底的 416 亿美元。债务减少不仅降低了戴尔的财务风险，还促进了盈利增长，因为债务减少也意味着利息支出减少。最近债务的减少使上季度的利息支出减少了约 1.62 亿美元，净利润增长了 59%。</blockquote></p><p> Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔还将剥离其 81% 的股权<b>VMware</b>这将提供93亿至97亿美元的收入，以加速债务的减少。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p><p><blockquote>最终，估值才是最重要的。该股的市盈率较低，为预期收益的12倍。业务增长的改善、债务的降低和便宜的市盈率的结合使其成为现在考虑购买的顶级科技股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","DELL":"戴尔","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108874297","content_text":"The NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.\nTwo stocks that are bucking that trend are Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Dell Technologies(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Alphabet\nAlphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020 as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.\nIn the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter. More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.\nDuring the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"\nAlphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall. This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,Microsoft and Amazon.\nOverall, Alphabet has a wide competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.\nOf course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.\nAnalysts expect this FAANG stock to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.\n2. Dell Technologies\nMany investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter, the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.\nAfter posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.\n\"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.\nThe stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic. But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.\nFirst, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January. Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense. The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.\nDell is also spinning off its 81% interest in VMware, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.\nUltimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates. A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112587854,"gmtCreate":1622887162078,"gmtModify":1634097055724,"author":{"id":"3583823859758620","authorId":"3583823859758620","name":"GacktEng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46820dfef2abefa70609fe49af45714","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583823859758620","authorIdStr":"3583823859758620"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment n like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Comment n like pls&nbsp;","text":"Comment n like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112587854","repostId":"1162130057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162130057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622862397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162130057?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162130057","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks hav","content":"<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162130057","content_text":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided\nGETTY IMAGES\nStock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.\nGoing forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”\nBy definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.\nSuch slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:\n\nValuation changes: The S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.\nIncreasing profit margins: The S&P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nNet buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.\n\nTo appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.\nProjecting the future\nThe picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.\nMore likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.\nOne can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.\nOne measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.\n\nFor example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.\n“The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.\nThe bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. 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