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Kennyhee

Kennyhee

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2021-10-29

Free shares

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-08-31

$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/04/the-risky-business-of-investing-in-chinese-tech-firms/Since 2019, there are warnings of this happening.

2021-07-29

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

Chinese tech disappoint

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

Fly fly fly

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-14

Latest

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-10

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-30

$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$hold and don't sell and we will see $40

2021-06-29

Read and like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

Comment and like, thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

Need to raise further, drop too much

Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-22

No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Buy buy

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-17

Look out, Ford may move further up

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2021-06-17

Hope it fly

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

Buy now before it climb too high

S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-11

Hope it fly up

How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>

2021-06-09

Time to rebound

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-05

Good closing day, next week to follow again

抱歉，原内容已删除

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thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122551568","repostId":"2146023165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121631170,"gmtCreate":1624461049390,"gmtModify":1631891062137,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need to raise further, drop too much","listText":"Need to raise further, drop too much","text":"Need to raise further, drop too much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121631170","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思近几个月与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的得分为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思近几个月与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的得分为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120550547,"gmtCreate":1624328837289,"gmtModify":1631891062150,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth","listText":"No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth","text":"No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120550547","repostId":"1184611063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166381394,"gmtCreate":1623991784918,"gmtModify":1631891062161,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy","listText":"Buy buy","text":"Buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166381394","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161487199,"gmtCreate":1623938428611,"gmtModify":1631884994051,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Look out, Ford may move further up&nbsp;","listText":"Look out, Ford may move further up&nbsp;","text":"Look out, Ford may move further up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161487199","repostId":"1182176652","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161485585,"gmtCreate":1623938386747,"gmtModify":1631884324380,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it fly","listText":"Hope it fly","text":"Hope it fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161485585","repostId":"2144490227","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163136717,"gmtCreate":1623861866839,"gmtModify":1634026814886,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy now before it climb too high&nbsp;","listText":"Buy now before it climb too high&nbsp;","text":"Buy now before it climb too high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163136717","repostId":"1118154026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118154026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623850220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118154026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118154026","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.\nTh","content":"<p>U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储更新货币政策之前，周三美国股市基本持平。</blockquote></p><p>  The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&amp;P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨20点。标普500小幅上涨0.1%，仅比前一交易日创下的历史高点低几个点。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p>  Large tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技股小幅走低，而经济重新开放公司皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价分别上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>  Stocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&amp;P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>周二交易时段，股市从创纪录水平回落，标普500在当天早些时候触及盘中历史高点后收盘下跌0.2%。由于大型科技股疲软，道琼斯指数下跌近100点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%。</blockquote></p><p>  The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周二开始了为期两天的会议。预计央行不会采取任何政策举措，但这可能表明它开始考虑使用债券购买政策。美联储还将于周三发布新的预测，这可能表明可能在2023年首次加息。此前，美联储官员尚未就2023年之前的加息达成共识。</blockquote></p><p>  The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点发布，30分钟后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p>  The meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p>  \"I still think&nbsp;equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief&nbsp;Rick Rieder&nbsp;said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday.&nbsp;\"If we don't hear anything&nbsp;different, then I worry a little&nbsp;bit about risk&nbsp;the system creates — you can&nbsp;create asset bubbles&nbsp;you can create leverage.&nbsp;We've seen markets that are a&nbsp;little bit concerning with&nbsp;literally zero spread to them&nbsp;for risk assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德全球债券主管Rick Rieder周三在CNBC的“Squawk Box”节目中表示：“我仍然认为股市会走高。如果我们没有听到任何不同的消息，那么我有点担心这个系统会产生风险——你可以制造资产泡沫，你可以制造杠杆。我们已经看到一些市场对风险资产的利差几乎为零感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p>  The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p>  \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p>  Minutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上次会议纪要显示，一些美联储官员表示，如果经济继续复苏，开始讨论调整债券购买计划可能是合适的。经济学家预测，虽然其中一些讨论可能会开始，但具体细节要到今年晚些时候才会披露。</blockquote></p><p>  On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储更新货币政策之前，周三美国股市基本持平。</blockquote></p><p>  The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&amp;P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨20点。标普500小幅上涨0.1%，仅比前一交易日创下的历史高点低几个点。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p>  Large tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技股小幅走低，而经济重新开放公司皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价分别上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>  Stocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&amp;P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>周二交易时段，股市从创纪录水平回落，标普500在当天早些时候触及盘中历史高点后收盘下跌0.2%。由于大型科技股疲软，道琼斯指数下跌近100点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%。</blockquote></p><p>  The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周二开始了为期两天的会议。预计央行不会采取任何政策举措，但这可能表明它开始考虑使用债券购买政策。美联储还将于周三发布新的预测，这可能表明可能在2023年首次加息。此前，美联储官员尚未就2023年之前的加息达成共识。</blockquote></p><p>  The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点发布，30分钟后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p>  The meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p>  \"I still think&nbsp;equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief&nbsp;Rick Rieder&nbsp;said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday.&nbsp;\"If we don't hear anything&nbsp;different, then I worry a little&nbsp;bit about risk&nbsp;the system creates — you can&nbsp;create asset bubbles&nbsp;you can create leverage.&nbsp;We've seen markets that are a&nbsp;little bit concerning with&nbsp;literally zero spread to them&nbsp;for risk assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德全球债券主管Rick Rieder周三在CNBC的“Squawk Box”节目中表示：“我仍然认为股市会走高。如果我们没有听到任何不同的消息，那么我有点担心这个系统会产生风险——你可以制造资产泡沫，你可以制造杠杆。我们已经看到一些市场对风险资产的利差几乎为零感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p>  The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p>  \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p>  Minutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上次会议纪要显示，一些美联储官员表示，如果经济继续复苏，开始讨论调整债券购买计划可能是合适的。经济学家预测，虽然其中一些讨论可能会开始，但具体细节要到今年晚些时候才会披露。</blockquote></p><p>  On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118154026","content_text":"U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.\nLarge tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.\nStocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.\nThe Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.\nThe Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.\nThe meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\n\"I still think equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief Rick Rieder said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday. \"If we don't hear anything different, then I worry a little bit about risk the system creates — you can create asset bubbles you can create leverage. We've seen markets that are a little bit concerning with literally zero spread to them for risk assets.\"\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nMinutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181464042,"gmtCreate":1623407847886,"gmtModify":1634033656838,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181464042","repostId":"183064994","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181416619,"gmtCreate":1623406458431,"gmtModify":1631884325289,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it fly up","listText":"Hope it fly up","text":"Hope it fly up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181416619","repostId":"1180091968","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180091968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403203,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180091968?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180091968","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li>  <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li>  <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年下跌后，并未参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力强劲的企业，拥有加速的自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司财力雄厚，可以继续发展。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强有力的投资主题。尽管许多通过互联网销售的股票一直蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）却明显落后。阿里巴巴-SW的股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500则大幅上涨，上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.</p><p><blockquote>围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云的IPO失败，阿里巴巴-SW陷入了一些争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现却很高。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流增长惊人</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是Seeking Alpha上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点谈谈阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个不断增长的细分市场与宏观经济趋势保持一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续实现收入增长（2020年核心商业总收入增长42%，而公司收入增长41%），但一些较小的部门也显示出强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴-SW的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速其自由现金流的增长。该公司2021年自由现金流为263.5亿美元，较2020年同比增长29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，阿里巴巴-SW手头现金为720亿美元，该业务产生了超过260亿美元的自由现金流，拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</b></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度看待问题，否则很难理解阿里巴巴-SW的股票有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的自由现金流收益率接近6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote></p><p> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流正在加速增长并且手头拥有大量现金，但这对该公司的同行来说是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断增长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年收入将接近2100亿美元。如果我们将公司24%的收入转化率应用于FCF，那么2024年FCF将达到500亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，FCF收益率为8.6%。对于一家公司的股票在规模如此之大的情况下增长如此之快，这是你不常见到的。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.</p><p><blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景看好，阿里巴巴-SW可能会大幅重新评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的FCF收益率跌至3%左右，也意味着股价上涨46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过8000亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定可以填补这些空缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一个奇妙的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模很大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢和耐心的投资者来说，上行空间是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li>  <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li>  <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年下跌后，并未参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力强劲的企业，拥有加速的自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司财力雄厚，可以继续发展。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强有力的投资主题。尽管许多通过互联网销售的股票一直蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）却明显落后。阿里巴巴-SW的股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500则大幅上涨，上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.</p><p><blockquote>围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云的IPO失败，阿里巴巴-SW陷入了一些争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现却很高。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流增长惊人</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是Seeking Alpha上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点谈谈阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个不断增长的细分市场与宏观经济趋势保持一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续实现收入增长（2020年核心商业总收入增长42%，而公司收入增长41%），但一些较小的部门也显示出强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴-SW的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速其自由现金流的增长。该公司2021年自由现金流为263.5亿美元，较2020年同比增长29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，阿里巴巴-SW手头现金为720亿美元，该业务产生了超过260亿美元的自由现金流，拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</b></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度看待问题，否则很难理解阿里巴巴-SW的股票有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的自由现金流收益率接近6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote></p><p> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流正在加速增长并且手头拥有大量现金，但这对该公司的同行来说是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断增长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年收入将接近2100亿美元。如果我们将公司24%的收入转化率应用于FCF，那么2024年FCF将达到500亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，FCF收益率为8.6%。对于一家公司的股票在规模如此之大的情况下增长如此之快，这是你不常见到的。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.</p><p><blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景看好，阿里巴巴-SW可能会大幅重新评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的FCF收益率跌至3%左右，也意味着股价上涨46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过8000亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定可以填补这些空缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一个奇妙的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模很大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢和耐心的投资者来说，上行空间是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap\">Seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180091968","content_text":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.\nAlibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.\nThe valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.\n\nE-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.\nAlibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.\nFree Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar\nAlibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.\nThe company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.\nsource: Alibaba Group Holding Limited\nThe largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.\nFor example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.\nsource: Alibaba Holding Group Limited\nWith $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&A or other developments.\nHow Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?\nIt's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.\nsource: YCharts\nThis is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.\nsource: Seeking Alpha\nThe company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.\nThe stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.\nWrapping Up\nAlibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189375231,"gmtCreate":1623246847423,"gmtModify":1631885485131,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584371749224835","authorIdStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to rebound&nbsp;","listText":"Time to rebound&nbsp;","text":"Time to 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and like pls","listText":"Read and like pls","text":"Read and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150725616","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172759805,"gmtCreate":1626995912407,"gmtModify":1631891062060,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chinese tech disappoint&nbsp;","listText":"Chinese tech disappoint&nbsp;","text":"Chinese tech disappoint","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172759805","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122551568,"gmtCreate":1624628645854,"gmtModify":1631891062123,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like, thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like, thanks&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122551568","repostId":"2146023165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151998933,"gmtCreate":1625060936422,"gmtModify":1631889318881,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$</a>hold and don't sell and we will see $40","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$</a>hold and don't sell and we will see $40","text":"$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$hold and don't sell and we will see $40","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151998933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163136717,"gmtCreate":1623861866839,"gmtModify":1634026814886,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy now before it climb too high&nbsp;","listText":"Buy now before it climb too high&nbsp;","text":"Buy now before it climb too high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163136717","repostId":"1118154026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118154026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623850220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118154026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118154026","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.\nTh","content":"<p>U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储更新货币政策之前，周三美国股市基本持平。</blockquote></p><p>  The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&amp;P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨20点。标普500小幅上涨0.1%，仅比前一交易日创下的历史高点低几个点。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p>  Large tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技股小幅走低，而经济重新开放公司皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价分别上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>  Stocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&amp;P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>周二交易时段，股市从创纪录水平回落，标普500在当天早些时候触及盘中历史高点后收盘下跌0.2%。由于大型科技股疲软，道琼斯指数下跌近100点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%。</blockquote></p><p>  The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周二开始了为期两天的会议。预计央行不会采取任何政策举措，但这可能表明它开始考虑使用债券购买政策。美联储还将于周三发布新的预测，这可能表明可能在2023年首次加息。此前，美联储官员尚未就2023年之前的加息达成共识。</blockquote></p><p>  The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点发布，30分钟后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p>  The meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p>  \"I still think&nbsp;equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief&nbsp;Rick Rieder&nbsp;said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday.&nbsp;\"If we don't hear anything&nbsp;different, then I worry a little&nbsp;bit about risk&nbsp;the system creates — you can&nbsp;create asset bubbles&nbsp;you can create leverage.&nbsp;We've seen markets that are a&nbsp;little bit concerning with&nbsp;literally zero spread to them&nbsp;for risk assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德全球债券主管Rick Rieder周三在CNBC的“Squawk Box”节目中表示：“我仍然认为股市会走高。如果我们没有听到任何不同的消息，那么我有点担心这个系统会产生风险——你可以制造资产泡沫，你可以制造杠杆。我们已经看到一些市场对风险资产的利差几乎为零感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p>  The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p>  \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p>  Minutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上次会议纪要显示，一些美联储官员表示，如果经济继续复苏，开始讨论调整债券购买计划可能是合适的。经济学家预测，虽然其中一些讨论可能会开始，但具体细节要到今年晚些时候才会披露。</blockquote></p><p>  On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储更新货币政策之前，周三美国股市基本持平。</blockquote></p><p>  The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&amp;P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨20点。标普500小幅上涨0.1%，仅比前一交易日创下的历史高点低几个点。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p>  Large tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技股小幅走低，而经济重新开放公司皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价分别上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>  Stocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&amp;P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>周二交易时段，股市从创纪录水平回落，标普500在当天早些时候触及盘中历史高点后收盘下跌0.2%。由于大型科技股疲软，道琼斯指数下跌近100点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%。</blockquote></p><p>  The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周二开始了为期两天的会议。预计央行不会采取任何政策举措，但这可能表明它开始考虑使用债券购买政策。美联储还将于周三发布新的预测，这可能表明可能在2023年首次加息。此前，美联储官员尚未就2023年之前的加息达成共识。</blockquote></p><p>  The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点发布，30分钟后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p>  The meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p>  \"I still think&nbsp;equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief&nbsp;Rick Rieder&nbsp;said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday.&nbsp;\"If we don't hear anything&nbsp;different, then I worry a little&nbsp;bit about risk&nbsp;the system creates — you can&nbsp;create asset bubbles&nbsp;you can create leverage.&nbsp;We've seen markets that are a&nbsp;little bit concerning with&nbsp;literally zero spread to them&nbsp;for risk assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德全球债券主管Rick Rieder周三在CNBC的“Squawk Box”节目中表示：“我仍然认为股市会走高。如果我们没有听到任何不同的消息，那么我有点担心这个系统会产生风险——你可以制造资产泡沫，你可以制造杠杆。我们已经看到一些市场对风险资产的利差几乎为零感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p>  The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p>  \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p>  Minutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上次会议纪要显示，一些美联储官员表示，如果经济继续复苏，开始讨论调整债券购买计划可能是合适的。经济学家预测，虽然其中一些讨论可能会开始，但具体细节要到今年晚些时候才会披露。</blockquote></p><p>  On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118154026","content_text":"U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.\nLarge tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.\nStocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.\nThe Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.\nThe Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.\nThe meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\n\"I still think equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief Rick Rieder said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday. \"If we don't hear anything different, then I worry a little bit about risk the system creates — you can create asset bubbles you can create leverage. We've seen markets that are a little bit concerning with literally zero spread to them for risk assets.\"\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nMinutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808133695,"gmtCreate":1627563790617,"gmtModify":1631891062046,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808133695","repostId":"1122445859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144837930,"gmtCreate":1626274595620,"gmtModify":1631891062082,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144837930","repostId":"1110985217","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121631170,"gmtCreate":1624461049390,"gmtModify":1631891062137,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need to raise further, drop too much","listText":"Need to raise further, drop too much","text":"Need to raise further, drop too much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121631170","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思近几个月与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的得分为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思近几个月与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导玩家将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的得分为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166381394,"gmtCreate":1623991784918,"gmtModify":1631891062161,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy","listText":"Buy buy","text":"Buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166381394","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120550547,"gmtCreate":1624328837289,"gmtModify":1631891062150,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth","listText":"No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth","text":"No debt, research on new energy for growth, can buy some for future growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120550547","repostId":"1184611063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161487199,"gmtCreate":1623938428611,"gmtModify":1631884994051,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Look out, Ford may move further up&nbsp;","listText":"Look out, Ford may move further up&nbsp;","text":"Look out, Ford may move further up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161487199","repostId":"1182176652","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161485585,"gmtCreate":1623938386747,"gmtModify":1631884324380,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it fly","listText":"Hope it fly","text":"Hope it fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161485585","repostId":"2144490227","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189375231,"gmtCreate":1623246847423,"gmtModify":1631885485131,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to rebound&nbsp;","listText":"Time to rebound&nbsp;","text":"Time to rebound","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189375231","repostId":"1125363075","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":857306138,"gmtCreate":1635505847040,"gmtModify":1635505847167,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Free shares","listText":"Free shares","text":"Free shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857306138","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818430310,"gmtCreate":1630423975630,"gmtModify":1631888877888,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$</a>https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/04/the-risky-business-of-investing-in-chinese-tech-firms/Since 2019, there are warnings of this happening.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$</a>https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/04/the-risky-business-of-investing-in-chinese-tech-firms/Since 2019, there are warnings of this happening.&nbsp;","text":"$Dingdong (Cayman) Limited(DDL)$https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/04/the-risky-business-of-investing-in-chinese-tech-firms/Since 2019, there are warnings of this happening.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818430310","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147884968,"gmtCreate":1626350235654,"gmtModify":1631891062073,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fly fly fly","listText":"Fly fly fly","text":"Fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147884968","repostId":"2151544104","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181464042,"gmtCreate":1623407847886,"gmtModify":1634033656838,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181464042","repostId":"183064994","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181416619,"gmtCreate":1623406458431,"gmtModify":1631884325289,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it fly up","listText":"Hope it fly up","text":"Hope it fly up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181416619","repostId":"1180091968","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180091968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403203,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180091968?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180091968","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li>  <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li>  <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年下跌后，并未参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力强劲的企业，拥有加速的自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司财力雄厚，可以继续发展。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强有力的投资主题。尽管许多通过互联网销售的股票一直蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）却明显落后。阿里巴巴-SW的股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500则大幅上涨，上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.</p><p><blockquote>围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云的IPO失败，阿里巴巴-SW陷入了一些争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现却很高。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流增长惊人</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是Seeking Alpha上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点谈谈阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个不断增长的细分市场与宏观经济趋势保持一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续实现收入增长（2020年核心商业总收入增长42%，而公司收入增长41%），但一些较小的部门也显示出强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴-SW的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速其自由现金流的增长。该公司2021年自由现金流为263.5亿美元，较2020年同比增长29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，阿里巴巴-SW手头现金为720亿美元，该业务产生了超过260亿美元的自由现金流，拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</b></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度看待问题，否则很难理解阿里巴巴-SW的股票有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的自由现金流收益率接近6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote></p><p> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流正在加速增长并且手头拥有大量现金，但这对该公司的同行来说是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断增长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年收入将接近2100亿美元。如果我们将公司24%的收入转化率应用于FCF，那么2024年FCF将达到500亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，FCF收益率为8.6%。对于一家公司的股票在规模如此之大的情况下增长如此之快，这是你不常见到的。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.</p><p><blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景看好，阿里巴巴-SW可能会大幅重新评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的FCF收益率跌至3%左右，也意味着股价上涨46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过8000亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定可以填补这些空缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一个奇妙的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模很大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢和耐心的投资者来说，上行空间是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li>  <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li>  <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年下跌后，并未参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力强劲的企业，拥有加速的自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司财力雄厚，可以继续发展。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强有力的投资主题。尽管许多通过互联网销售的股票一直蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）却明显落后。阿里巴巴-SW的股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500则大幅上涨，上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.</p><p><blockquote>围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云的IPO失败，阿里巴巴-SW陷入了一些争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现却很高。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流增长惊人</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是Seeking Alpha上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点谈谈阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个不断增长的细分市场与宏观经济趋势保持一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续实现收入增长（2020年核心商业总收入增长42%，而公司收入增长41%），但一些较小的部门也显示出强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴-SW的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速其自由现金流的增长。该公司2021年自由现金流为263.5亿美元，较2020年同比增长29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，阿里巴巴-SW手头现金为720亿美元，该业务产生了超过260亿美元的自由现金流，拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</b></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度看待问题，否则很难理解阿里巴巴-SW的股票有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的自由现金流收益率接近6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote></p><p> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流正在加速增长并且手头拥有大量现金，但这对该公司的同行来说是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断增长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年收入将接近2100亿美元。如果我们将公司24%的收入转化率应用于FCF，那么2024年FCF将达到500亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，FCF收益率为8.6%。对于一家公司的股票在规模如此之大的情况下增长如此之快，这是你不常见到的。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.</p><p><blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景看好，阿里巴巴-SW可能会大幅重新评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的FCF收益率跌至3%左右，也意味着股价上涨46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过8000亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定可以填补这些空缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一个奇妙的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模很大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢和耐心的投资者来说，上行空间是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap\">Seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180091968","content_text":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.\nAlibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.\nThe valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.\n\nE-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.\nAlibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.\nFree Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar\nAlibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.\nThe company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.\nsource: Alibaba Group Holding Limited\nThe largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.\nFor example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.\nsource: Alibaba Holding Group Limited\nWith $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&A or other developments.\nHow Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?\nIt's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.\nsource: YCharts\nThis is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.\nsource: Seeking Alpha\nThe company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.\nThe stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.\nWrapping Up\nAlibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112109975,"gmtCreate":1622853902197,"gmtModify":1634097404831,"author":{"id":"3584371749224835","authorId":"3584371749224835","name":"Kennyhee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a3ec7f0cc5906c0ee843a7799b4263","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584371749224835","idStr":"3584371749224835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good closing day, next week to follow again&nbsp;","listText":"Good closing day, next week to follow again&nbsp;","text":"Good closing day, next week to follow again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112109975","repostId":"1198786025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}