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2021-06-22

神人

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

$洲際交易所(ICE)$放量下跌來到支撐

2021-06-15

說的對

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2021-06-27

重重的飛啊

2021-06-20

油價回條

美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？

2021-06-20

$泰利福(TFX)$来到了支撑线

2021-06-19

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2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

科技衝啊

“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点

2021-06-06

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09:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144465706","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。","content":"<p>本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。</p>\n<p>本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从64美元/桶上行至74美元/桶之后开始调整。除此之外，原油市场的超级周期再次被提及，主要逻辑在于上游投资不足导致未来原油产能不足，一旦原油需求快速恢复，供给端难以在短时间内提供相应的产能。从全球的钻井平台数上我们也能看出这一迹象，在原油价格大幅上行之后，全球钻井平台数并未出现明显的增长，不论是美国还是OPEC均是如此，在经历了超级大跌后，市场对于上游投资明显更加谨慎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e363c674afba2f3d31d303b6564ccb5e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>综合来看，美元指数大涨，原油价格也很难脱离周边市场影响，因此价格盘整很正常。目前来看，布伦特油价盘整区间应该为70—75美元/桶，未来依然要紧盯美元指数的变化，倘若美元指数继续大幅上行，那么不排除油价跌破70美元/桶的可能，如果美元指数涨势趋缓甚至走弱，那么原油仍有上涨动能。</p>\n<h3><b>美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？</b></h3>\n<p>周四美联储发布了6月FOMC利率决议，随后美元指数出现了久违的大涨，黄金价格从高点暴跌60美元/盎司，美股从高位回落，铜等大宗商品也未能幸免，原油75美元/桶冲关失败，市场的主要逻辑点似乎正在慢慢转变。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850d8653515001b09d53a14c5fdc955\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9fa632f6ea5c9af8484380afff01e12\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在周四的会议后，鲍威尔还是比较顾及市场感受，未给出缩减QE的具体时间，力图淡化市场上可能存在的“加息恐慌”，称“加息尚在遥远的未来”，同时鲍威尔还表示一旦美联储有收紧货币的政策，将会提前通知市场。美媒分析称，美联储关于疫情和经济风险的措辞更加积极，但随着更多的美联储成员变得鹰派，在今年年底之前，美联储有较大可能会提前缩减购债规模。</p>\n<p>原油价格最近一年之所以能够如此之强，除了与供给收缩，需求恢复有关以外，也与全球通胀预期有着直接的关系。美联储放水直接拉高了原油价格，倘若美国收紧货币政策，那么即便是基本面向好，多头也必须顶着美元指数的压力拉抬油价，这无疑将给多头带来更多的阻力。</p>\n<p>回看几次原油市场的超级周期，布伦特价格在85美元/桶之上时美元指数都在80点之下，原油价格如果想在75美元/桶之上依旧维持牛市行情，需要美元指数保持相对弱势，即便是在某些时间内会出现美元指数和油价同涨的情况，但油价上行的空间比较有限。如果未来原油市场要出现超级周期，美元指数就不能够大幅走强。</p>\n<p>不过根据美联储的预测，即便是加息也会在2023年，因此在很长一段时间内美国都将保持相对较低的市场利率。虽然加息之前原油市场不会受到较大干扰，但短期预期的影响让油价变得更加扑朔迷离。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a62390685d10bbc30f2623317c86b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图为美元指数与原油价格（来源：WIND）</p>\n<h3><b>投资不足引发超级周期？</b></h3>\n<p>最近市场有一种声音：多头们将目光投向了更远的未来——投资不足。包括沙特、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、托克等中上游公司纷纷发出警告，在投资不足的当下，未来很有可能会出现原油价格的超级周期。</p>\n<p>沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，勘探开采方面缺乏新投资可能会引发全球油价新一轮超级周期。知情人士称，沙特能源大臣周三在Robin Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。</p>\n<p>摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。</p>\n<p>托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”</p>\n<p>从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。</p>\n<p>由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。</p>\n<p>从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。\n本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de019d346ae215b032b548e12d784857","relate_stocks":{"FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144465706","content_text":"本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。\n本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从64美元/桶上行至74美元/桶之后开始调整。除此之外，原油市场的超级周期再次被提及，主要逻辑在于上游投资不足导致未来原油产能不足，一旦原油需求快速恢复，供给端难以在短时间内提供相应的产能。从全球的钻井平台数上我们也能看出这一迹象，在原油价格大幅上行之后，全球钻井平台数并未出现明显的增长，不论是美国还是OPEC均是如此，在经历了超级大跌后，市场对于上游投资明显更加谨慎。\n\n综合来看，美元指数大涨，原油价格也很难脱离周边市场影响，因此价格盘整很正常。目前来看，布伦特油价盘整区间应该为70—75美元/桶，未来依然要紧盯美元指数的变化，倘若美元指数继续大幅上行，那么不排除油价跌破70美元/桶的可能，如果美元指数涨势趋缓甚至走弱，那么原油仍有上涨动能。\n美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？\n周四美联储发布了6月FOMC利率决议，随后美元指数出现了久违的大涨，黄金价格从高点暴跌60美元/盎司，美股从高位回落，铜等大宗商品也未能幸免，原油75美元/桶冲关失败，市场的主要逻辑点似乎正在慢慢转变。\n\n\n在周四的会议后，鲍威尔还是比较顾及市场感受，未给出缩减QE的具体时间，力图淡化市场上可能存在的“加息恐慌”，称“加息尚在遥远的未来”，同时鲍威尔还表示一旦美联储有收紧货币的政策，将会提前通知市场。美媒分析称，美联储关于疫情和经济风险的措辞更加积极，但随着更多的美联储成员变得鹰派，在今年年底之前，美联储有较大可能会提前缩减购债规模。\n原油价格最近一年之所以能够如此之强，除了与供给收缩，需求恢复有关以外，也与全球通胀预期有着直接的关系。美联储放水直接拉高了原油价格，倘若美国收紧货币政策，那么即便是基本面向好，多头也必须顶着美元指数的压力拉抬油价，这无疑将给多头带来更多的阻力。\n回看几次原油市场的超级周期，布伦特价格在85美元/桶之上时美元指数都在80点之下，原油价格如果想在75美元/桶之上依旧维持牛市行情，需要美元指数保持相对弱势，即便是在某些时间内会出现美元指数和油价同涨的情况，但油价上行的空间比较有限。如果未来原油市场要出现超级周期，美元指数就不能够大幅走强。\n不过根据美联储的预测，即便是加息也会在2023年，因此在很长一段时间内美国都将保持相对较低的市场利率。虽然加息之前原油市场不会受到较大干扰，但短期预期的影响让油价变得更加扑朔迷离。\n\n图为美元指数与原油价格（来源：WIND）\n投资不足引发超级周期？\n最近市场有一种声音：多头们将目光投向了更远的未来——投资不足。包括沙特、摩根大通、托克等中上游公司纷纷发出警告，在投资不足的当下，未来很有可能会出现原油价格的超级周期。\n沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，勘探开采方面缺乏新投资可能会引发全球油价新一轮超级周期。知情人士称，沙特能源大臣周三在Robin Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。\n摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。\n托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”\n从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。\n由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。\n从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FXC":0.9,"NZDmain":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"FXB":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"FXE":0.9,"FXF":0.9,"MEURmain":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"EUO":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"CHFmain":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"YCS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164000848,"gmtCreate":1624159717984,"gmtModify":1631892378458,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166346976","media":"中国证券报","summary":"半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期","content":"<div>\n<p>半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 22:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ><strong>中国证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166346976","content_text":"半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、元件涨幅居前，半导体板块更是大涨7.98%，并登上微博热搜。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n个股方面，申万二级半导体行业中46只成分股全部飘红，38只成分股涨逾5%，全志科技、台基股份等涨停。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n诺安蔡嵩松再上热搜\n在此背景下，以重仓半导体板块而闻名的基金经理诺安基金蔡嵩松再次被推上热搜，被网友誉为“长在热搜上的男人”。\n天天基金APP显示，蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合基金6月17日估算净值涨幅高达7.28%，秒杀一众大佬。截至6月16日，近1个月诺安成长混合上涨11.17%，今年来上涨3.64%。\n\n图片来源：天天基金APP\n有不少基民打算从今天开始“追随”蔡经理。\n\n图片来源：社交网络\n不过，更多基民表示见多了这样的大风大浪，还是要选择及时止盈。\n\n图片来源：诺安成长混合基金吧\n机构看好半导体板块\n东方基金基金经理李瑞表示，全球缺芯状况正在持续，日本光刻胶供不应求再次拉升半导体板块热度。国内半导体企业预计全年业绩走高，且逻辑更加确定。近期市场流动性较为充裕，市场更偏好成长性强的板块。\n天弘基金股票投资研究部科技组组长陈国光认为，供需紧张主要利好两类企业：一是能够拿到产能的公司，将逐渐占领更多的份额；二是产能分配不足的子领域，可以享受产品涨价带来的利润率提升。\n中信建投证券称，全球半导体设备市场将在2021-2022年进一步增长，半导体设备行业景气周期有望进一步延续。另外，半导体设备企业业绩高增，2021年一季度海外半导体设备龙头企业业绩多实现两连增。展望未来，不少公司认为其业绩上升将持续。\n陈国光表示，行情演绎到现在，需求持续性是最值得关注的指标。继手机销量逐渐疲软之后，近期可以观察到半导体中的涨价品种涨价趋势逐渐收敛。如果供需紧张趋缓的预期形成，未来则主要看好几个方向：一是产能仍然结构性偏紧的赛道，包括电源管理等从8寸往12寸迁移较为困难的产品；二是需求仍然处在爆发期的赛道，包括智能家居在内的万物互联、汽车智能化电气化等方向；三是射频、模拟、半导体设备。\n对于科技板块的操作思路，陈国光表示，半导体板块的配置主要在核心设计公司以及国内顶级设备公司，计算机板块的配置重点在AI龙头和汽车智能化龙头。同时，对消费电子品牌端比较看好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160022981,"gmtCreate":1623767173243,"gmtModify":1634028618948,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"說的對","listText":"說的對","text":"說的對","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160022981","repostId":"1149991028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115886957,"gmtCreate":1622971089279,"gmtModify":1634096475743,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","listText":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","text":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e150c8d1ca9418eb67f5d36ed957dec0","width":"640","height":"1136"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115886957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119395402,"gmtCreate":1622517808606,"gmtModify":1634100883973,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119395402","repostId":"1108979904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119392618,"gmtCreate":1622517724434,"gmtModify":1634100885047,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的","listText":"大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的","text":"大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119392618","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110034487,"gmtCreate":1622416568249,"gmtModify":1634101790274,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":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09:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144465706","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。","content":"<p>本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。</p>\n<p>本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从64美元/桶上行至74美元/桶之后开始调整。除此之外，原油市场的超级周期再次被提及，主要逻辑在于上游投资不足导致未来原油产能不足，一旦原油需求快速恢复，供给端难以在短时间内提供相应的产能。从全球的钻井平台数上我们也能看出这一迹象，在原油价格大幅上行之后，全球钻井平台数并未出现明显的增长，不论是美国还是OPEC均是如此，在经历了超级大跌后，市场对于上游投资明显更加谨慎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e363c674afba2f3d31d303b6564ccb5e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>综合来看，美元指数大涨，原油价格也很难脱离周边市场影响，因此价格盘整很正常。目前来看，布伦特油价盘整区间应该为70—75美元/桶，未来依然要紧盯美元指数的变化，倘若美元指数继续大幅上行，那么不排除油价跌破70美元/桶的可能，如果美元指数涨势趋缓甚至走弱，那么原油仍有上涨动能。</p>\n<h3><b>美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？</b></h3>\n<p>周四美联储发布了6月FOMC利率决议，随后美元指数出现了久违的大涨，黄金价格从高点暴跌60美元/盎司，美股从高位回落，铜等大宗商品也未能幸免，原油75美元/桶冲关失败，市场的主要逻辑点似乎正在慢慢转变。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850d8653515001b09d53a14c5fdc955\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9fa632f6ea5c9af8484380afff01e12\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在周四的会议后，鲍威尔还是比较顾及市场感受，未给出缩减QE的具体时间，力图淡化市场上可能存在的“加息恐慌”，称“加息尚在遥远的未来”，同时鲍威尔还表示一旦美联储有收紧货币的政策，将会提前通知市场。美媒分析称，美联储关于疫情和经济风险的措辞更加积极，但随着更多的美联储成员变得鹰派，在今年年底之前，美联储有较大可能会提前缩减购债规模。</p>\n<p>原油价格最近一年之所以能够如此之强，除了与供给收缩，需求恢复有关以外，也与全球通胀预期有着直接的关系。美联储放水直接拉高了原油价格，倘若美国收紧货币政策，那么即便是基本面向好，多头也必须顶着美元指数的压力拉抬油价，这无疑将给多头带来更多的阻力。</p>\n<p>回看几次原油市场的超级周期，布伦特价格在85美元/桶之上时美元指数都在80点之下，原油价格如果想在75美元/桶之上依旧维持牛市行情，需要美元指数保持相对弱势，即便是在某些时间内会出现美元指数和油价同涨的情况，但油价上行的空间比较有限。如果未来原油市场要出现超级周期，美元指数就不能够大幅走强。</p>\n<p>不过根据美联储的预测，即便是加息也会在2023年，因此在很长一段时间内美国都将保持相对较低的市场利率。虽然加息之前原油市场不会受到较大干扰，但短期预期的影响让油价变得更加扑朔迷离。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a62390685d10bbc30f2623317c86b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图为美元指数与原油价格（来源：WIND）</p>\n<h3><b>投资不足引发超级周期？</b></h3>\n<p>最近市场有一种声音：多头们将目光投向了更远的未来——投资不足。包括沙特、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、托克等中上游公司纷纷发出警告，在投资不足的当下，未来很有可能会出现原油价格的超级周期。</p>\n<p>沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，勘探开采方面缺乏新投资可能会引发全球油价新一轮超级周期。知情人士称，沙特能源大臣周三在Robin Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。</p>\n<p>摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。</p>\n<p>托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”</p>\n<p>从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。</p>\n<p>由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。</p>\n<p>从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。\n本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de019d346ae215b032b548e12d784857","relate_stocks":{"FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144465706","content_text":"本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。\n本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从64美元/桶上行至74美元/桶之后开始调整。除此之外，原油市场的超级周期再次被提及，主要逻辑在于上游投资不足导致未来原油产能不足，一旦原油需求快速恢复，供给端难以在短时间内提供相应的产能。从全球的钻井平台数上我们也能看出这一迹象，在原油价格大幅上行之后，全球钻井平台数并未出现明显的增长，不论是美国还是OPEC均是如此，在经历了超级大跌后，市场对于上游投资明显更加谨慎。\n\n综合来看，美元指数大涨，原油价格也很难脱离周边市场影响，因此价格盘整很正常。目前来看，布伦特油价盘整区间应该为70—75美元/桶，未来依然要紧盯美元指数的变化，倘若美元指数继续大幅上行，那么不排除油价跌破70美元/桶的可能，如果美元指数涨势趋缓甚至走弱，那么原油仍有上涨动能。\n美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？\n周四美联储发布了6月FOMC利率决议，随后美元指数出现了久违的大涨，黄金价格从高点暴跌60美元/盎司，美股从高位回落，铜等大宗商品也未能幸免，原油75美元/桶冲关失败，市场的主要逻辑点似乎正在慢慢转变。\n\n\n在周四的会议后，鲍威尔还是比较顾及市场感受，未给出缩减QE的具体时间，力图淡化市场上可能存在的“加息恐慌”，称“加息尚在遥远的未来”，同时鲍威尔还表示一旦美联储有收紧货币的政策，将会提前通知市场。美媒分析称，美联储关于疫情和经济风险的措辞更加积极，但随着更多的美联储成员变得鹰派，在今年年底之前，美联储有较大可能会提前缩减购债规模。\n原油价格最近一年之所以能够如此之强，除了与供给收缩，需求恢复有关以外，也与全球通胀预期有着直接的关系。美联储放水直接拉高了原油价格，倘若美国收紧货币政策，那么即便是基本面向好，多头也必须顶着美元指数的压力拉抬油价，这无疑将给多头带来更多的阻力。\n回看几次原油市场的超级周期，布伦特价格在85美元/桶之上时美元指数都在80点之下，原油价格如果想在75美元/桶之上依旧维持牛市行情，需要美元指数保持相对弱势，即便是在某些时间内会出现美元指数和油价同涨的情况，但油价上行的空间比较有限。如果未来原油市场要出现超级周期，美元指数就不能够大幅走强。\n不过根据美联储的预测，即便是加息也会在2023年，因此在很长一段时间内美国都将保持相对较低的市场利率。虽然加息之前原油市场不会受到较大干扰，但短期预期的影响让油价变得更加扑朔迷离。\n\n图为美元指数与原油价格（来源：WIND）\n投资不足引发超级周期？\n最近市场有一种声音：多头们将目光投向了更远的未来——投资不足。包括沙特、摩根大通、托克等中上游公司纷纷发出警告，在投资不足的当下，未来很有可能会出现原油价格的超级周期。\n沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，勘探开采方面缺乏新投资可能会引发全球油价新一轮超级周期。知情人士称，沙特能源大臣周三在Robin Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。\n摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。\n托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”\n从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。\n由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。\n从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FXC":0.9,"NZDmain":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"FXB":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"FXE":0.9,"FXF":0.9,"MEURmain":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"EUO":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"CHFmain":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"YCS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164000848,"gmtCreate":1624159717984,"gmtModify":1631892378458,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166346976","media":"中国证券报","summary":"半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期","content":"<div>\n<p>半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 22:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ><strong>中国证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166346976","content_text":"半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、元件涨幅居前，半导体板块更是大涨7.98%，并登上微博热搜。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n个股方面，申万二级半导体行业中46只成分股全部飘红，38只成分股涨逾5%，全志科技、台基股份等涨停。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n诺安蔡嵩松再上热搜\n在此背景下，以重仓半导体板块而闻名的基金经理诺安基金蔡嵩松再次被推上热搜，被网友誉为“长在热搜上的男人”。\n天天基金APP显示，蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合基金6月17日估算净值涨幅高达7.28%，秒杀一众大佬。截至6月16日，近1个月诺安成长混合上涨11.17%，今年来上涨3.64%。\n\n图片来源：天天基金APP\n有不少基民打算从今天开始“追随”蔡经理。\n\n图片来源：社交网络\n不过，更多基民表示见多了这样的大风大浪，还是要选择及时止盈。\n\n图片来源：诺安成长混合基金吧\n机构看好半导体板块\n东方基金基金经理李瑞表示，全球缺芯状况正在持续，日本光刻胶供不应求再次拉升半导体板块热度。国内半导体企业预计全年业绩走高，且逻辑更加确定。近期市场流动性较为充裕，市场更偏好成长性强的板块。\n天弘基金股票投资研究部科技组组长陈国光认为，供需紧张主要利好两类企业：一是能够拿到产能的公司，将逐渐占领更多的份额；二是产能分配不足的子领域，可以享受产品涨价带来的利润率提升。\n中信建投证券称，全球半导体设备市场将在2021-2022年进一步增长，半导体设备行业景气周期有望进一步延续。另外，半导体设备企业业绩高增，2021年一季度海外半导体设备龙头企业业绩多实现两连增。展望未来，不少公司认为其业绩上升将持续。\n陈国光表示，行情演绎到现在，需求持续性是最值得关注的指标。继手机销量逐渐疲软之后，近期可以观察到半导体中的涨价品种涨价趋势逐渐收敛。如果供需紧张趋缓的预期形成，未来则主要看好几个方向：一是产能仍然结构性偏紧的赛道，包括电源管理等从8寸往12寸迁移较为困难的产品；二是需求仍然处在爆发期的赛道，包括智能家居在内的万物互联、汽车智能化电气化等方向；三是射频、模拟、半导体设备。\n对于科技板块的操作思路，陈国光表示，半导体板块的配置主要在核心设计公司以及国内顶级设备公司，计算机板块的配置重点在AI龙头和汽车智能化龙头。同时，对消费电子品牌端比较看好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115886957,"gmtCreate":1622971089279,"gmtModify":1634096475743,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584739632942904","idStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","listText":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","text":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e150c8d1ca9418eb67f5d36ed957dec0","width":"640","height":"1136"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115886957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}