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2021-08-25

Thanks 😊

These 15 stocks of retailers are expected to rise up to 97% over the next year<blockquote>这15只零售商股票预计明年将上涨97%</blockquote>

2021-08-24

The magic in Disney

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2021-08-14

Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba

If you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote>

2021-08-13

Yes indeed

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2021-08-08

Yeah alright

Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote>

2021-08-03

Go Alibaba Go

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2021-08-03

Buy Etsy now?

2021-08-03

Good buy

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2021-08-03

Etsy eh!

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2021-08-03

Looking to buy

2021-07-31

To buy?!!!

2021-07-31

Thanks

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2021-07-28

Going up (:

2021-07-28

Shared

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2021-07-28

Ok

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2021-07-26

Good

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-26

Buy some

2021-07-25

Thanks for the post.

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Is it going to move?

2021-07-24

Cleverness

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,"authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks 😊&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks 😊&nbsp;","text":"Thanks 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837048560","repostId":"2161772199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161772199","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629790326,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2161772199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 15:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks of retailers are expected to rise up to 97% over the next year<blockquote>这15只零售商股票预计明年将上涨97%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772199","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Amazon is one of five that also make the list of those retailers expected to increase sales the fastest. Analysts polled by FactSet expect shares of Vroom, which sells used cars directly to consumers, to rise 97% over the next 12 months.With so many challenges for traditional retailers, investors can be forgiven for giving up on the entire sector. But there is money to be made if you focus on innovative sellers and maybe even on traditional brick-and-mortar retailers that are cleaning up their a","content":"<p>Amazon is one of five that also make the list of those retailers expected to increase sales the fastest</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是预计销售额增长最快的五家零售商之一</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff482dd0b98ef3816dcbb572fa188c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Analysts polled by FactSet expect shares of Vroom, which sells used cars directly to consumers, to rise 97% over the next 12 months.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>FactSet 调查的分析师预计，直接向消费者销售二手车的 Vroom 股价将在未来 12 个月内上涨 97%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With so many challenges for traditional retailers, investors can be forgiven for giving up on the entire sector. But there is money to be made if you focus on innovative sellers and maybe even on traditional brick-and-mortar retailers that are cleaning up their acts.</p><p><blockquote>传统零售商面临如此多的挑战，投资者放弃整个行业是情有可原的。但如果你专注于创新的卖家，甚至是正在清理行为的传统实体零售商，就会赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> Below are two lists of stocks of retailers, broadly defined by FactSet to include specialized companies such as Vroom Inc.&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> , which sell (and buy) used cars online. The first list includes 15 stocks that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, and the second list shows companies expected to increase their sales the most over the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是两个零售商股票列表，FactSet 的广义定义包括 Vroom Inc. 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">卡瓦纳公司。</a>，在网上出售（和购买）二手车。第一份名单包括分析师预计明年涨幅最大的 15 只股票，第二份名单显示了预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Two retailers that didn't make either list are Macy's Inc.&nbsp;and Target Corp.. Both are worth watching, although investors with shorter-term horizons may find them pricey.</p><p><blockquote>两家没有上榜的零售商是梅西公司和塔吉特公司..两者都值得一看，尽管短期投资者可能会发现它们价格昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Macy's had nearly doubled for 2021 through last week. The stock popped 20% on Aug. 19, after the company reported with WHP Global to sell more Toys 'R' Us items in its stores. The stock closed at $22.39 on Aug. 20 -- a penny above the consensus 12-month price target among analysts polled by FactSet. Of course, analysts can change their estimates in light of recent news.</p><p><blockquote>截至上周，梅西百货 2021 年股价几乎翻了一番。8 月 19 日，该公司向 WHP Global 报告将在其商店销售更多玩具反斗城商品后，该股上涨 20%。该股 8 月 20 日收于 22.39 美元，比 FactSet 调查的分析师一致的 12 个月目标价高出 1 美分。当然，分析师可以根据最近的消息改变他们的估计。</blockquote></p><p> Target's stock is up 49% this year. The company also reported a much-improved second quarter . Target's shares closed at $253.40 on Aug. 20, 10% below the consensus price target of $277.66.</p><p><blockquote>塔吉特的股价今年上涨了 49%。该公司还公布了第二季度业绩有了很大改善。Target 股价 8 月 20 日收于 253.40 美元，比 277.66 美元的一致目标价低 10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts' favorite retail stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师最喜欢的零售股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting with the Russell 3000 Index , there are 124 stocks of companies in retail industries, according to FactSet's industry group descriptions. These include online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> and the direct used-auto retailers mentioned above.</p><p><blockquote>根据 FactSet 的行业组描述，从罗素 3000 指数开始，零售行业共有 124 只公司股票。其中包括亚马逊等在线零售商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>以及上面提到的直接二手车零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Among those stocks, 77 have stock-market values of at least $1 billion, are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet and have consensus sales and earnings estimates available through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在这些股票中，有 77 只股票的市值至少为 10 亿美元，受到 FactSet 调查的至少五名分析师的关注，并且对 2023 年的销售和盈利做出了一致的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the 15 stocks with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings that the analysts believe have the most upside potential over the next year:</p><p><blockquote>以下是分析师认为明年最具上涨潜力的 15 只获得“买入”或同等评级的股票：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Share “buy” ratings</b></td>    <td><b>Closing price – Aug. 20</b></td>    <td><b>Consensus price target</b></td>    <td><b>Implied 12-month upside potential</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$25.02</td>    <td>$49.25</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$12.35</td>    <td>$24.31</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td>    <td>100%</td>    <td>$69.58</td>    <td>$127.60</td>    <td>83%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>88%</td>    <td>$21.26</td>    <td>$36.00</td>    <td>69%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Group 1 Automotive Inc.GPI</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$159.01</td>    <td>$251.40</td>    <td>58%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Leslie’s Inc.LESL</td>    <td>75%</td>    <td>$22.59</td>    <td>$32.64</td>    <td>44%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>64%</td>    <td>$328.51</td>    <td>$468.83</td>    <td>43%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>IAA Inc.IAA</td>    <td>90%</td>    <td>$51.71</td>    <td>$72.38</td>    <td>40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class AANF</td>    <td>58%</td>    <td>$38.02</td>    <td>$52.11</td>    <td>37%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tapestry Inc.TPR</td>    <td>62%</td>    <td>$40.58</td>    <td>$54.89</td>    <td>35%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Capri Holdings Ltd.CPRI</td>    <td>61%</td>    <td>$54.33</td>    <td>$72.35</td>    <td>33%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>56%</td>    <td>$50.25</td>    <td>$65.71</td>    <td>31%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>98%</td>    <td>$3,199.95</td>    <td>$4,164.30</td>    <td>30%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Hibbett Inc.HIBB</td>    <td>83%</td>    <td>$85.14</td>    <td>$110.67</td>    <td>30%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>American Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO</td>    <td>64%</td>    <td>$32.37</td>    <td>$41.31</td>    <td>28%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>分享“买入”评级</b></td><td><b>收盘价 – 8 月 20 日</b></td><td><b>共识价格目标</b></td><td><b>隐含 12 个月上行潜力</b></td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>67%</td><td>$25.02</td><td>$49.25</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>67%</td><td>$12.35</td><td>$24.31</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td><td>100%</td><td>$69.58</td><td>$127.60</td><td>83%</td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>88%</td><td>$21.26</td><td>$36.00</td><td>69%</td></tr><tr><td>第一组汽车公司GPI</td><td>67%</td><td>$159.01</td><td>$251.40</td><td>58%</td></tr><tr><td>莱斯利公司</td><td>75%</td><td>$22.59</td><td>$32.64</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>64%</td><td>$328.51</td><td>$468.83</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>IAA公司IAA</td><td>90%</td><td>$51.71</td><td>$72.38</td><td>40%</td></tr><tr><td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class ANF</td><td>58%</td><td>$38.02</td><td>$52.11</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>挂毯公司TPR</td><td>62%</td><td>$40.58</td><td>$54.89</td><td>35%</td></tr><tr><td>卡普里控股有限公司CPRI</td><td>61%</td><td>$54.33</td><td>$72.35</td><td>33%</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>56%</td><td>$50.25</td><td>$65.71</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>98%</td><td>$3,199.95</td><td>$4,164.30</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>希贝特公司</td><td>83%</td><td>$85.14</td><td>$110.67</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>美国鹰服装公司AEO</td><td>64%</td><td>$32.37</td><td>$41.31</td><td>28%</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Using the same order, here are sales estimates for the group through 2023:</p><p><blockquote>使用相同的顺序，以下是本集团截至 2023 年的销售额估计：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year sales increase</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>117%</td>    <td>$3,060</td>    <td>$4,514</td>    <td>$6,652</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>65%</td>    <td>$447</td>    <td>$592</td>    <td>$736</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td>    <td>17%</td>    <td>$2,830</td>    <td>$3,186</td>    <td>$3,321</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>175%</td>    <td>$200</td>    <td>$328</td>    <td>$550</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Group 1 Automotive Inc.GPI</td>    <td>11%</td>    <td>$13,480</td>    <td>$14,680</td>    <td>$15,025</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Leslie’s Inc.LESL</td>    <td>14%</td>    <td>$1,342</td>    <td>$1,442</td>    <td>$1,536</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$21,902</td>    <td>$26,515</td>    <td>$30,801</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>IAA Inc.IAA</td>    <td>15%</td>    <td>$1,706</td>    <td>$1,781</td>    <td>$1,962</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class AANF</td>    <td>4%</td>    <td>$3,680</td>    <td>$3,847</td>    <td>$3,841</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tapestry Inc.TPR</td>    <td>11%</td>    <td>$6,066</td>    <td>$6,531</td>    <td>$6,725</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Capri Holdings Ltd.CPRI</td>    <td>24%</td>    <td>$5,017</td>    <td>$5,752</td>    <td>$6,205</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>34%</td>    <td>$12,390</td>    <td>$14,196</td>    <td>$16,569</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>38%</td>    <td>$476,170</td>    <td>$563,466</td>    <td>$657,295</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Hibbett Inc.HIBB</td>    <td>13%</td>    <td>$1,504</td>    <td>$1,581</td>    <td>$1,706</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>American Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO</td>    <td>17%</td>    <td>$4,917</td>    <td>$5,355</td>    <td>$5,742</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年销售额增长</b></td><td><b>估计收入-2021</b></td><td><b>预计收入-2022</b></td><td><b>预计收入 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>117%</td><td>$3,060</td><td>$4,514</td><td>$6,652</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>65%</td><td>$447</td><td>$592</td><td>$736</td></tr><tr><td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td><td>17%</td><td>$2,830</td><td>$3,186</td><td>$3,321</td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>175%</td><td>$200</td><td>$328</td><td>$550</td></tr><tr><td>第一组汽车公司GPI</td><td>11%</td><td>$13,480</td><td>$14,680</td><td>$15,025</td></tr><tr><td>莱斯利公司</td><td>14%</td><td>$1,342</td><td>$1,442</td><td>$1,536</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>41%</td><td>$21,902</td><td>$26,515</td><td>$30,801</td></tr><tr><td>IAA公司IAA</td><td>15%</td><td>$1,706</td><td>$1,781</td><td>$1,962</td></tr><tr><td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class ANF</td><td>4%</td><td>$3,680</td><td>$3,847</td><td>$3,841</td></tr><tr><td>挂毯公司TPR</td><td>11%</td><td>$6,066</td><td>$6,531</td><td>$6,725</td></tr><tr><td>卡普里控股有限公司CPRI</td><td>24%</td><td>$5,017</td><td>$5,752</td><td>$6,205</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>34%</td><td>$12,390</td><td>$14,196</td><td>$16,569</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>38%</td><td>$476,170</td><td>$563,466</td><td>$657,295</td></tr><tr><td>希贝特公司</td><td>13%</td><td>$1,504</td><td>$1,581</td><td>$1,706</td></tr><tr><td>美国鹰服装公司AEO</td><td>17%</td><td>$4,917</td><td>$5,355</td><td>$5,742</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> The estimates are for calendar years, but note that many retailers' fiscal years don't match the calendar.</p><p><blockquote>这些估计值是针对日历年的，但请注意，许多零售商的财政年度与日历不符。</blockquote></p><p> Also using the same list, here are estimates for earnings per share through 2023:</p><p><blockquote>同样使用相同的列表，以下是到 2023 年每股收益的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year EPS change</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.50</td>    <td>-$2.45</td>    <td>-$2.24</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.05</td>    <td>-$1.35</td>    <td>-$1.00</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td>    <td>-4%</td>    <td>$2.56</td>    <td>$2.73</td>    <td>$2.46</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$1.23</td>    <td>-$0.42</td>    <td>-$0.23</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Group 1 Automotive Inc.GPI</td>    <td>-19%</td>    <td>$30.30</td>    <td>$28.09</td>    <td>$24.61</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Leslie’s Inc.LESL</td>    <td>16%</td>    <td>$0.85</td>    <td>$0.90</td>    <td>$0.98</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>-2%</td>    <td>$33.22</td>    <td>$31.61</td>    <td>$32.59</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>IAA Inc.IAA</td>    <td>19%</td>    <td>$2.33</td>    <td>$2.44</td>    <td>$2.76</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class AANF</td>    <td>-10%</td>    <td>$3.16</td>    <td>$3.18</td>    <td>$2.85</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tapestry Inc.TPR</td>    <td>22%</td>    <td>$3.17</td>    <td>$3.55</td>    <td>$3.85</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Capri Holdings Ltd.CPRI</td>    <td>53%</td>    <td>$3.93</td>    <td>$5.17</td>    <td>$5.99</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>7%</td>    <td>$7.03</td>    <td>$7.37</td>    <td>$7.52</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>74%</td>    <td>$53.15</td>    <td>$67.39</td>    <td>$92.34</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Hibbett Inc.HIBB</td>    <td>13%</td>    <td>$8.89</td>    <td>$8.88</td>    <td>$10.04</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>American Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO</td>    <td>34%</td>    <td>$1.97</td>    <td>$2.33</td>    <td>$2.63</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年每股收益变化</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2021</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2022</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.50</td><td>-$2.45</td><td>-$2.24</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.05</td><td>-$1.35</td><td>-$1.00</td></tr><tr><td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td><td>-4%</td><td>$2.56</td><td>$2.73</td><td>$2.46</td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$1.23</td><td>-$0.42</td><td>-$0.23</td></tr><tr><td>第一组汽车公司GPI</td><td>-19%</td><td>$30.30</td><td>$28.09</td><td>$24.61</td></tr><tr><td>莱斯利公司</td><td>16%</td><td>$0.85</td><td>$0.90</td><td>$0.98</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>-2%</td><td>$33.22</td><td>$31.61</td><td>$32.59</td></tr><tr><td>IAA公司IAA</td><td>19%</td><td>$2.33</td><td>$2.44</td><td>$2.76</td></tr><tr><td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class ANF</td><td>-10%</td><td>$3.16</td><td>$3.18</td><td>$2.85</td></tr><tr><td>挂毯公司TPR</td><td>22%</td><td>$3.17</td><td>$3.55</td><td>$3.85</td></tr><tr><td>卡普里控股有限公司CPRI</td><td>53%</td><td>$3.93</td><td>$5.17</td><td>$5.99</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>7%</td><td>$7.03</td><td>$7.37</td><td>$7.52</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>74%</td><td>$53.15</td><td>$67.39</td><td>$92.34</td></tr><tr><td>希贝特公司</td><td>13%</td><td>$8.89</td><td>$8.88</td><td>$10.04</td></tr><tr><td>美国鹰服装公司AEO</td><td>34%</td><td>$1.97</td><td>$2.33</td><td>$2.63</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> For three of the companies, the expected two-year change in EPS is \"N/A\" because estimated earnings for 2021 or 2023, or both, are negative.</p><p><blockquote>对于其中三家公司来说，每股收益的预期两年变化为“不适用”，因为 2021 年或 2023 年或两者的预计收益均为负值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fastest expected sales increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预期销售额增长最快</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting again with the 77 retailers that have market capitalizations of at least $1 billion and are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, here are the 15 expected to increase their sales the most over the next two years:</p><p><blockquote>再次从 FactSet 调查的至少五位分析师涵盖的 77 家市值至少为 10 亿美元的零售商开始，以下是预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的 15 家零售商：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year sales increase</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>175%</td>    <td>$200</td>    <td>$328</td>    <td>$550</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>117%</td>    <td>$3,060</td>    <td>$4,514</td>    <td>$6,652</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Carvana Co. Class ACVNA</td>    <td>76%</td>    <td>$11,775</td>    <td>$15,468</td>    <td>$20,680</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>65%</td>    <td>$447</td>    <td>$592</td>    <td>$736</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV</td>    <td>47%</td>    <td>$818</td>    <td>$1,004</td>    <td>$1,206</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Etsy Inc.ETSY</td>    <td>47%</td>    <td>$2,280</td>    <td>$2,747</td>    <td>$3,351</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Floor &amp; Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND</td>    <td>46%</td>    <td>$3,339</td>    <td>$4,007</td>    <td>$4,874</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Five Below Inc.FIVE</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$2,717</td>    <td>$3,264</td>    <td>$3,841</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$2,240</td>    <td>$2,622</td>    <td>$3,161</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$21,902</td>    <td>$26,515</td>    <td>$30,801</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Wayfair Inc. Class AW</td>    <td>39%</td>    <td>$14,393</td>    <td>$17,228</td>    <td>$20,049</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>38%</td>    <td>$476,170</td>    <td>$563,466</td>    <td>$657,295</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU</td>    <td>37%</td>    <td>$5,804</td>    <td>$6,877</td>    <td>$7,963</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>34%</td>    <td>$12,390</td>    <td>$14,196</td>    <td>$16,569</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI</td>    <td>26%</td>    <td>$1,868</td>    <td>$2,088</td>    <td>$2,363</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FacSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年销售额增长</b></td><td><b>估计收入-2021</b></td><td><b>预计收入-2022</b></td><td><b>预计收入 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>175%</td><td>$200</td><td>$328</td><td>$550</td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>117%</td><td>$3,060</td><td>$4,514</td><td>$6,652</td></tr><tr><td>Carvana Co. 级 ACVNA</td><td>76%</td><td>$11,775</td><td>$15,468</td><td>$20,680</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>65%</td><td>$447</td><td>$592</td><td>$736</td></tr><tr><td>Revolve Group, Inc 类别 ARVLV</td><td>47%</td><td>$818</td><td>$1,004</td><td>$1,206</td></tr><tr><td>Etsy公司</td><td>47%</td><td>$2,280</td><td>$2,747</td><td>$3,351</td></tr><tr><td>地板与装饰控股公司 AFND 类</td><td>46%</td><td>$3,339</td><td>$4,007</td><td>$4,874</td></tr><tr><td>五以下公司五</td><td>41%</td><td>$2,717</td><td>$3,264</td><td>$3,841</td></tr><tr><td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td><td>41%</td><td>$2,240</td><td>$2,622</td><td>$3,161</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>41%</td><td>$21,902</td><td>$26,515</td><td>$30,801</td></tr><tr><td>Wayfair Inc. AW 级</td><td>39%</td><td>$14,393</td><td>$17,228</td><td>$20,049</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>38%</td><td>$476,170</td><td>$563,466</td><td>$657,295</td></tr><tr><td>露露柠檬运动公司露露</td><td>37%</td><td>$5,804</td><td>$6,877</td><td>$7,963</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>34%</td><td>$12,390</td><td>$14,196</td><td>$16,569</td></tr><tr><td>奥利特价奥特莱斯控股公司</td><td>26%</td><td>$1,868</td><td>$2,088</td><td>$2,363</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：FacSet</blockquote></p><p> Only five companies make both this list and that with the most implied upside potential for their stock price: ChargePoint Holdings Inc. (CHPT), Vroom, RealReal Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">$(REAL)$</a>, Lithia Motors Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAD\">$(LAD)$</a>, Amazon and Sonic Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(SAH)$</a>.</p><p><blockquote>只有五家公司同时上榜，其股价潜力最大：ChargePoint Holdings Inc. (CHPT)、Vroom、RealReal Inc。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">$(实)$</a>利西亚汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAD\">$(小伙子)$</a>、亚马逊和索尼克汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(时间)$</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Here are EPS estimates for the list of best expected sales growers, using the same order as those with the fastest expected sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>以下是最佳预期销售增长者名单的每股收益估计值，使用与预期销售增长最快的公司相同的顺序：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year earnings increase</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$1.23</td>    <td>-$0.42</td>    <td>-$0.23</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.50</td>    <td>-$2.45</td>    <td>-$2.24</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Carvana Co. Class ACVNA</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$1.12</td>    <td>-$0.30</td>    <td>$1.70</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.05</td>    <td>-$1.35</td>    <td>-$1.00</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV</td>    <td>46%</td>    <td>$1.02</td>    <td>$1.19</td>    <td>$1.49</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Etsy Inc.ETSY</td>    <td>62%</td>    <td>$3.03</td>    <td>$3.52</td>    <td>$4.90</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Floor &amp; Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND</td>    <td>45%</td>    <td>$2.46</td>    <td>$2.88</td>    <td>$3.56</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Five Below Inc.FIVE</td>    <td>45%</td>    <td>$4.57</td>    <td>$5.60</td>    <td>$6.64</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$0.42</td>    <td>-$0.24</td>    <td>$0.43</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>-2%</td>    <td>$33.22</td>    <td>$31.61</td>    <td>$32.59</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Wayfair Inc. Class AW</td>    <td>113%</td>    <td>$3.27</td>    <td>$4.74</td>    <td>$6.97</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>74%</td>    <td>$53.15</td>    <td>$67.39</td>    <td>$92.34</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU</td>    <td>50%</td>    <td>$6.73</td>    <td>$8.33</td>    <td>$10.08</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>7%</td>    <td>$7.03</td>    <td>$7.37</td>    <td>$7.52</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI</td>    <td>23%</td>    <td>$2.93</td>    <td>$3.24</td>    <td>$3.61</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年盈利增长</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2021</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2022</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$1.23</td><td>-$0.42</td><td>-$0.23</td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.50</td><td>-$2.45</td><td>-$2.24</td></tr><tr><td>Carvana Co. 级 ACVNA</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$1.12</td><td>-$0.30</td><td>$1.70</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.05</td><td>-$1.35</td><td>-$1.00</td></tr><tr><td>Revolve Group, Inc 类别 ARVLV</td><td>46%</td><td>$1.02</td><td>$1.19</td><td>$1.49</td></tr><tr><td>Etsy公司</td><td>62%</td><td>$3.03</td><td>$3.52</td><td>$4.90</td></tr><tr><td>地板与装饰控股公司 AFND 类</td><td>45%</td><td>$2.46</td><td>$2.88</td><td>$3.56</td></tr><tr><td>五以下公司五</td><td>45%</td><td>$4.57</td><td>$5.60</td><td>$6.64</td></tr><tr><td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$0.42</td><td>-$0.24</td><td>$0.43</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>-2%</td><td>$33.22</td><td>$31.61</td><td>$32.59</td></tr><tr><td>Wayfair Inc. AW 级</td><td>113%</td><td>$3.27</td><td>$4.74</td><td>$6.97</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>74%</td><td>$53.15</td><td>$67.39</td><td>$92.34</td></tr><tr><td>露露柠檬运动公司露露</td><td>50%</td><td>$6.73</td><td>$8.33</td><td>$10.08</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>7%</td><td>$7.03</td><td>$7.37</td><td>$7.52</td></tr><tr><td>奥利特价奥特莱斯控股公司</td><td>23%</td><td>$2.93</td><td>$3.24</td><td>$3.61</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a summary of analysts’ opinion about the list of best expected sales growers, also in the same order:</p><p><blockquote>以下是分析师对最佳预期销售额种植者名单的看法摘要，顺序也相同：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Share “buy” ratings</b></td>    <td><b>Closing price – Aug. 20</b></td>    <td><b>Consensus price target</b></td>    <td><b>Implied 12-month upside potential</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>88%</td>    <td>$21.26</td>    <td>$36.00</td>    <td>69%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$25.02</td>    <td>$49.25</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Carvana Co. Class ACVNA</td>    <td>58%</td>    <td>$349.76</td>    <td>$379.09</td>    <td>8%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$12.35</td>    <td>$24.31</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV</td>    <td>71%</td>    <td>$57.68</td>    <td>$70.67</td>    <td>23%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Etsy Inc.ETSY</td>    <td>76%</td>    <td>$199.27</td>    <td>$215.93</td>    <td>8%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Floor &amp; Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND</td>    <td>87%</td>    <td>$117.75</td>    <td>$136.36</td>    <td>16%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Five Below Inc.FIVE</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$225.11</td>    <td>$232.70</td>    <td>3%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td>    <td>38%</td>    <td>$39.71</td>    <td>$62.13</td>    <td>56%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>64%</td>    <td>$328.51</td>    <td>$468.83</td>    <td>43%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Wayfair Inc. Class AW</td>    <td>50%</td>    <td>$290.52</td>    <td>$324.64</td>    <td>12%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>98%</td>    <td>$3,199.95</td>    <td>$4,164.30</td>    <td>30%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$397.83</td>    <td>$401.63</td>    <td>1%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>56%</td>    <td>$50.25</td>    <td>$65.71</td>    <td>31%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI</td>    <td>50%</td>    <td>$82.70</td>    <td>$98.00</td>    <td>19%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>分享“买入”评级</b></td><td><b>收盘价 – 8 月 20 日</b></td><td><b>共识价格目标</b></td><td><b>隐含 12 个月上涨潜力</b></td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>88%</td><td>$21.26</td><td>$36.00</td><td>69%</td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>67%</td><td>$25.02</td><td>$49.25</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>Carvana Co. 级 ACVNA</td><td>58%</td><td>$349.76</td><td>$379.09</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>67%</td><td>$12.35</td><td>$24.31</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>Revolve Group, Inc 类别 ARVLV</td><td>71%</td><td>$57.68</td><td>$70.67</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Etsy公司</td><td>76%</td><td>$199.27</td><td>$215.93</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>地板与装饰控股公司 AFND 类</td><td>87%</td><td>$117.75</td><td>$136.36</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>五以下公司五</td><td>67%</td><td>$225.11</td><td>$232.70</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td><td>38%</td><td>$39.71</td><td>$62.13</td><td>56%</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>64%</td><td>$328.51</td><td>$468.83</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>Wayfair Inc. AW 级</td><td>50%</td><td>$290.52</td><td>$324.64</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>98%</td><td>$3,199.95</td><td>$4,164.30</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>露露柠檬运动公司露露</td><td>67%</td><td>$397.83</td><td>$401.63</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>56%</td><td>$50.25</td><td>$65.71</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>奥利特价奥特莱斯控股公司</td><td>50%</td><td>$82.70</td><td>$98.00</td><td>19%</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> If you see any stocks of interest here, you should do your own research and form your own opinion about the companies’ long-term strategies before considering an investment.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table>如果您在这里看到任何感兴趣的股票，在考虑投资之前，您应该自己做研究，并对公司的长期战略形成自己的看法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks of retailers are expected to rise up to 97% over the next year<blockquote>这15只零售商股票预计明年将上涨97%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks of retailers are expected to rise up to 97% over the next year<blockquote>这15只零售商股票预计明年将上涨97%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 15:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon is one of five that also make the list of those retailers expected to increase sales the fastest</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是预计销售额增长最快的五家零售商之一</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff482dd0b98ef3816dcbb572fa188c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Analysts polled by FactSet expect shares of Vroom, which sells used cars directly to consumers, to rise 97% over the next 12 months.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>FactSet 调查的分析师预计，直接向消费者销售二手车的 Vroom 股价将在未来 12 个月内上涨 97%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With so many challenges for traditional retailers, investors can be forgiven for giving up on the entire sector. But there is money to be made if you focus on innovative sellers and maybe even on traditional brick-and-mortar retailers that are cleaning up their acts.</p><p><blockquote>传统零售商面临如此多的挑战，投资者放弃整个行业是情有可原的。但如果你专注于创新的卖家，甚至是正在清理行为的传统实体零售商，就会赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> Below are two lists of stocks of retailers, broadly defined by FactSet to include specialized companies such as Vroom Inc.&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> , which sell (and buy) used cars online. The first list includes 15 stocks that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, and the second list shows companies expected to increase their sales the most over the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是两个零售商股票列表，FactSet 的广义定义包括 Vroom Inc. 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">卡瓦纳公司。</a>，在网上出售（和购买）二手车。第一份名单包括分析师预计明年涨幅最大的 15 只股票，第二份名单显示了预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Two retailers that didn't make either list are Macy's Inc.&nbsp;and Target Corp.. Both are worth watching, although investors with shorter-term horizons may find them pricey.</p><p><blockquote>两家没有上榜的零售商是梅西公司和塔吉特公司..两者都值得一看，尽管短期投资者可能会发现它们价格昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Macy's had nearly doubled for 2021 through last week. The stock popped 20% on Aug. 19, after the company reported with WHP Global to sell more Toys 'R' Us items in its stores. The stock closed at $22.39 on Aug. 20 -- a penny above the consensus 12-month price target among analysts polled by FactSet. Of course, analysts can change their estimates in light of recent news.</p><p><blockquote>截至上周，梅西百货 2021 年股价几乎翻了一番。8 月 19 日，该公司向 WHP Global 报告将在其商店销售更多玩具反斗城商品后，该股上涨 20%。该股 8 月 20 日收于 22.39 美元，比 FactSet 调查的分析师一致的 12 个月目标价高出 1 美分。当然，分析师可以根据最近的消息改变他们的估计。</blockquote></p><p> Target's stock is up 49% this year. The company also reported a much-improved second quarter . Target's shares closed at $253.40 on Aug. 20, 10% below the consensus price target of $277.66.</p><p><blockquote>塔吉特的股价今年上涨了 49%。该公司还公布了第二季度业绩有了很大改善。Target 股价 8 月 20 日收于 253.40 美元，比 277.66 美元的一致目标价低 10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts' favorite retail stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师最喜欢的零售股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting with the Russell 3000 Index , there are 124 stocks of companies in retail industries, according to FactSet's industry group descriptions. These include online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> and the direct used-auto retailers mentioned above.</p><p><blockquote>根据 FactSet 的行业组描述，从罗素 3000 指数开始，零售行业共有 124 只公司股票。其中包括亚马逊等在线零售商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>以及上面提到的直接二手车零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Among those stocks, 77 have stock-market values of at least $1 billion, are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet and have consensus sales and earnings estimates available through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在这些股票中，有 77 只股票的市值至少为 10 亿美元，受到 FactSet 调查的至少五名分析师的关注，并且对 2023 年的销售和盈利做出了一致的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the 15 stocks with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings that the analysts believe have the most upside potential over the next year:</p><p><blockquote>以下是分析师认为明年最具上涨潜力的 15 只获得“买入”或同等评级的股票：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Share “buy” ratings</b></td>    <td><b>Closing price – Aug. 20</b></td>    <td><b>Consensus price target</b></td>    <td><b>Implied 12-month upside potential</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$25.02</td>    <td>$49.25</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$12.35</td>    <td>$24.31</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td>    <td>100%</td>    <td>$69.58</td>    <td>$127.60</td>    <td>83%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>88%</td>    <td>$21.26</td>    <td>$36.00</td>    <td>69%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Group 1 Automotive Inc.GPI</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$159.01</td>    <td>$251.40</td>    <td>58%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Leslie’s Inc.LESL</td>    <td>75%</td>    <td>$22.59</td>    <td>$32.64</td>    <td>44%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>64%</td>    <td>$328.51</td>    <td>$468.83</td>    <td>43%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>IAA Inc.IAA</td>    <td>90%</td>    <td>$51.71</td>    <td>$72.38</td>    <td>40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class AANF</td>    <td>58%</td>    <td>$38.02</td>    <td>$52.11</td>    <td>37%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tapestry Inc.TPR</td>    <td>62%</td>    <td>$40.58</td>    <td>$54.89</td>    <td>35%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Capri Holdings Ltd.CPRI</td>    <td>61%</td>    <td>$54.33</td>    <td>$72.35</td>    <td>33%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>56%</td>    <td>$50.25</td>    <td>$65.71</td>    <td>31%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>98%</td>    <td>$3,199.95</td>    <td>$4,164.30</td>    <td>30%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Hibbett Inc.HIBB</td>    <td>83%</td>    <td>$85.14</td>    <td>$110.67</td>    <td>30%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>American Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO</td>    <td>64%</td>    <td>$32.37</td>    <td>$41.31</td>    <td>28%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>分享“买入”评级</b></td><td><b>收盘价 – 8 月 20 日</b></td><td><b>共识价格目标</b></td><td><b>隐含 12 个月上行潜力</b></td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>67%</td><td>$25.02</td><td>$49.25</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>67%</td><td>$12.35</td><td>$24.31</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td><td>100%</td><td>$69.58</td><td>$127.60</td><td>83%</td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>88%</td><td>$21.26</td><td>$36.00</td><td>69%</td></tr><tr><td>第一组汽车公司GPI</td><td>67%</td><td>$159.01</td><td>$251.40</td><td>58%</td></tr><tr><td>莱斯利公司</td><td>75%</td><td>$22.59</td><td>$32.64</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>64%</td><td>$328.51</td><td>$468.83</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>IAA公司IAA</td><td>90%</td><td>$51.71</td><td>$72.38</td><td>40%</td></tr><tr><td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class ANF</td><td>58%</td><td>$38.02</td><td>$52.11</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>挂毯公司TPR</td><td>62%</td><td>$40.58</td><td>$54.89</td><td>35%</td></tr><tr><td>卡普里控股有限公司CPRI</td><td>61%</td><td>$54.33</td><td>$72.35</td><td>33%</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>56%</td><td>$50.25</td><td>$65.71</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>98%</td><td>$3,199.95</td><td>$4,164.30</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>希贝特公司</td><td>83%</td><td>$85.14</td><td>$110.67</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>美国鹰服装公司AEO</td><td>64%</td><td>$32.37</td><td>$41.31</td><td>28%</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Using the same order, here are sales estimates for the group through 2023:</p><p><blockquote>使用相同的顺序，以下是本集团截至 2023 年的销售额估计：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year sales increase</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>117%</td>    <td>$3,060</td>    <td>$4,514</td>    <td>$6,652</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>65%</td>    <td>$447</td>    <td>$592</td>    <td>$736</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td>    <td>17%</td>    <td>$2,830</td>    <td>$3,186</td>    <td>$3,321</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>175%</td>    <td>$200</td>    <td>$328</td>    <td>$550</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Group 1 Automotive Inc.GPI</td>    <td>11%</td>    <td>$13,480</td>    <td>$14,680</td>    <td>$15,025</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Leslie’s Inc.LESL</td>    <td>14%</td>    <td>$1,342</td>    <td>$1,442</td>    <td>$1,536</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$21,902</td>    <td>$26,515</td>    <td>$30,801</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>IAA Inc.IAA</td>    <td>15%</td>    <td>$1,706</td>    <td>$1,781</td>    <td>$1,962</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class AANF</td>    <td>4%</td>    <td>$3,680</td>    <td>$3,847</td>    <td>$3,841</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tapestry Inc.TPR</td>    <td>11%</td>    <td>$6,066</td>    <td>$6,531</td>    <td>$6,725</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Capri Holdings Ltd.CPRI</td>    <td>24%</td>    <td>$5,017</td>    <td>$5,752</td>    <td>$6,205</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>34%</td>    <td>$12,390</td>    <td>$14,196</td>    <td>$16,569</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>38%</td>    <td>$476,170</td>    <td>$563,466</td>    <td>$657,295</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Hibbett Inc.HIBB</td>    <td>13%</td>    <td>$1,504</td>    <td>$1,581</td>    <td>$1,706</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>American Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO</td>    <td>17%</td>    <td>$4,917</td>    <td>$5,355</td>    <td>$5,742</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年销售额增长</b></td><td><b>估计收入-2021</b></td><td><b>预计收入-2022</b></td><td><b>预计收入 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>117%</td><td>$3,060</td><td>$4,514</td><td>$6,652</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>65%</td><td>$447</td><td>$592</td><td>$736</td></tr><tr><td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td><td>17%</td><td>$2,830</td><td>$3,186</td><td>$3,321</td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>175%</td><td>$200</td><td>$328</td><td>$550</td></tr><tr><td>第一组汽车公司GPI</td><td>11%</td><td>$13,480</td><td>$14,680</td><td>$15,025</td></tr><tr><td>莱斯利公司</td><td>14%</td><td>$1,342</td><td>$1,442</td><td>$1,536</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>41%</td><td>$21,902</td><td>$26,515</td><td>$30,801</td></tr><tr><td>IAA公司IAA</td><td>15%</td><td>$1,706</td><td>$1,781</td><td>$1,962</td></tr><tr><td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class ANF</td><td>4%</td><td>$3,680</td><td>$3,847</td><td>$3,841</td></tr><tr><td>挂毯公司TPR</td><td>11%</td><td>$6,066</td><td>$6,531</td><td>$6,725</td></tr><tr><td>卡普里控股有限公司CPRI</td><td>24%</td><td>$5,017</td><td>$5,752</td><td>$6,205</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>34%</td><td>$12,390</td><td>$14,196</td><td>$16,569</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>38%</td><td>$476,170</td><td>$563,466</td><td>$657,295</td></tr><tr><td>希贝特公司</td><td>13%</td><td>$1,504</td><td>$1,581</td><td>$1,706</td></tr><tr><td>美国鹰服装公司AEO</td><td>17%</td><td>$4,917</td><td>$5,355</td><td>$5,742</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> The estimates are for calendar years, but note that many retailers' fiscal years don't match the calendar.</p><p><blockquote>这些估计值是针对日历年的，但请注意，许多零售商的财政年度与日历不符。</blockquote></p><p> Also using the same list, here are estimates for earnings per share through 2023:</p><p><blockquote>同样使用相同的列表，以下是到 2023 年每股收益的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year EPS change</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.50</td>    <td>-$2.45</td>    <td>-$2.24</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.05</td>    <td>-$1.35</td>    <td>-$1.00</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td>    <td>-4%</td>    <td>$2.56</td>    <td>$2.73</td>    <td>$2.46</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$1.23</td>    <td>-$0.42</td>    <td>-$0.23</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Group 1 Automotive Inc.GPI</td>    <td>-19%</td>    <td>$30.30</td>    <td>$28.09</td>    <td>$24.61</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Leslie’s Inc.LESL</td>    <td>16%</td>    <td>$0.85</td>    <td>$0.90</td>    <td>$0.98</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>-2%</td>    <td>$33.22</td>    <td>$31.61</td>    <td>$32.59</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>IAA Inc.IAA</td>    <td>19%</td>    <td>$2.33</td>    <td>$2.44</td>    <td>$2.76</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class AANF</td>    <td>-10%</td>    <td>$3.16</td>    <td>$3.18</td>    <td>$2.85</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tapestry Inc.TPR</td>    <td>22%</td>    <td>$3.17</td>    <td>$3.55</td>    <td>$3.85</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Capri Holdings Ltd.CPRI</td>    <td>53%</td>    <td>$3.93</td>    <td>$5.17</td>    <td>$5.99</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>7%</td>    <td>$7.03</td>    <td>$7.37</td>    <td>$7.52</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>74%</td>    <td>$53.15</td>    <td>$67.39</td>    <td>$92.34</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Hibbett Inc.HIBB</td>    <td>13%</td>    <td>$8.89</td>    <td>$8.88</td>    <td>$10.04</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>American Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO</td>    <td>34%</td>    <td>$1.97</td>    <td>$2.33</td>    <td>$2.63</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年每股收益变化</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2021</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2022</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.50</td><td>-$2.45</td><td>-$2.24</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.05</td><td>-$1.35</td><td>-$1.00</td></tr><tr><td>Overstock.com Inc.OSTK</td><td>-4%</td><td>$2.56</td><td>$2.73</td><td>$2.46</td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$1.23</td><td>-$0.42</td><td>-$0.23</td></tr><tr><td>第一组汽车公司GPI</td><td>-19%</td><td>$30.30</td><td>$28.09</td><td>$24.61</td></tr><tr><td>莱斯利公司</td><td>16%</td><td>$0.85</td><td>$0.90</td><td>$0.98</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>-2%</td><td>$33.22</td><td>$31.61</td><td>$32.59</td></tr><tr><td>IAA公司IAA</td><td>19%</td><td>$2.33</td><td>$2.44</td><td>$2.76</td></tr><tr><td>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. Class ANF</td><td>-10%</td><td>$3.16</td><td>$3.18</td><td>$2.85</td></tr><tr><td>挂毯公司TPR</td><td>22%</td><td>$3.17</td><td>$3.55</td><td>$3.85</td></tr><tr><td>卡普里控股有限公司CPRI</td><td>53%</td><td>$3.93</td><td>$5.17</td><td>$5.99</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>7%</td><td>$7.03</td><td>$7.37</td><td>$7.52</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>74%</td><td>$53.15</td><td>$67.39</td><td>$92.34</td></tr><tr><td>希贝特公司</td><td>13%</td><td>$8.89</td><td>$8.88</td><td>$10.04</td></tr><tr><td>美国鹰服装公司AEO</td><td>34%</td><td>$1.97</td><td>$2.33</td><td>$2.63</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> For three of the companies, the expected two-year change in EPS is \"N/A\" because estimated earnings for 2021 or 2023, or both, are negative.</p><p><blockquote>对于其中三家公司来说，每股收益的预期两年变化为“不适用”，因为 2021 年或 2023 年或两者的预计收益均为负值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fastest expected sales increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预期销售额增长最快</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting again with the 77 retailers that have market capitalizations of at least $1 billion and are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, here are the 15 expected to increase their sales the most over the next two years:</p><p><blockquote>再次从 FactSet 调查的至少五位分析师涵盖的 77 家市值至少为 10 亿美元的零售商开始，以下是预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的 15 家零售商：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year sales increase</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated revenue – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>175%</td>    <td>$200</td>    <td>$328</td>    <td>$550</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>117%</td>    <td>$3,060</td>    <td>$4,514</td>    <td>$6,652</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Carvana Co. Class ACVNA</td>    <td>76%</td>    <td>$11,775</td>    <td>$15,468</td>    <td>$20,680</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>65%</td>    <td>$447</td>    <td>$592</td>    <td>$736</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV</td>    <td>47%</td>    <td>$818</td>    <td>$1,004</td>    <td>$1,206</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Etsy Inc.ETSY</td>    <td>47%</td>    <td>$2,280</td>    <td>$2,747</td>    <td>$3,351</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Floor &amp; Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND</td>    <td>46%</td>    <td>$3,339</td>    <td>$4,007</td>    <td>$4,874</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Five Below Inc.FIVE</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$2,717</td>    <td>$3,264</td>    <td>$3,841</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$2,240</td>    <td>$2,622</td>    <td>$3,161</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>41%</td>    <td>$21,902</td>    <td>$26,515</td>    <td>$30,801</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Wayfair Inc. Class AW</td>    <td>39%</td>    <td>$14,393</td>    <td>$17,228</td>    <td>$20,049</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>38%</td>    <td>$476,170</td>    <td>$563,466</td>    <td>$657,295</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU</td>    <td>37%</td>    <td>$5,804</td>    <td>$6,877</td>    <td>$7,963</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>34%</td>    <td>$12,390</td>    <td>$14,196</td>    <td>$16,569</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI</td>    <td>26%</td>    <td>$1,868</td>    <td>$2,088</td>    <td>$2,363</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FacSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年销售额增长</b></td><td><b>估计收入-2021</b></td><td><b>预计收入-2022</b></td><td><b>预计收入 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>175%</td><td>$200</td><td>$328</td><td>$550</td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>117%</td><td>$3,060</td><td>$4,514</td><td>$6,652</td></tr><tr><td>Carvana Co. 级 ACVNA</td><td>76%</td><td>$11,775</td><td>$15,468</td><td>$20,680</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>65%</td><td>$447</td><td>$592</td><td>$736</td></tr><tr><td>Revolve Group, Inc 类别 ARVLV</td><td>47%</td><td>$818</td><td>$1,004</td><td>$1,206</td></tr><tr><td>Etsy公司</td><td>47%</td><td>$2,280</td><td>$2,747</td><td>$3,351</td></tr><tr><td>地板与装饰控股公司 AFND 类</td><td>46%</td><td>$3,339</td><td>$4,007</td><td>$4,874</td></tr><tr><td>五以下公司五</td><td>41%</td><td>$2,717</td><td>$3,264</td><td>$3,841</td></tr><tr><td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td><td>41%</td><td>$2,240</td><td>$2,622</td><td>$3,161</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>41%</td><td>$21,902</td><td>$26,515</td><td>$30,801</td></tr><tr><td>Wayfair Inc. AW 级</td><td>39%</td><td>$14,393</td><td>$17,228</td><td>$20,049</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>38%</td><td>$476,170</td><td>$563,466</td><td>$657,295</td></tr><tr><td>露露柠檬运动公司露露</td><td>37%</td><td>$5,804</td><td>$6,877</td><td>$7,963</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>34%</td><td>$12,390</td><td>$14,196</td><td>$16,569</td></tr><tr><td>奥利特价奥特莱斯控股公司</td><td>26%</td><td>$1,868</td><td>$2,088</td><td>$2,363</td></tr></tbody></table>资料来源：FacSet</blockquote></p><p> Only five companies make both this list and that with the most implied upside potential for their stock price: ChargePoint Holdings Inc. (CHPT), Vroom, RealReal Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">$(REAL)$</a>, Lithia Motors Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAD\">$(LAD)$</a>, Amazon and Sonic Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(SAH)$</a>.</p><p><blockquote>只有五家公司同时上榜，其股价潜力最大：ChargePoint Holdings Inc. (CHPT)、Vroom、RealReal Inc。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">$(实)$</a>利西亚汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAD\">$(小伙子)$</a>、亚马逊和索尼克汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(时间)$</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Here are EPS estimates for the list of best expected sales growers, using the same order as those with the fastest expected sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>以下是最佳预期销售增长者名单的每股收益估计值，使用与预期销售增长最快的公司相同的顺序：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Expected two-year earnings increase</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2021</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2022</b></td>    <td><b>Estimated EPS – 2023</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$1.23</td>    <td>-$0.42</td>    <td>-$0.23</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.50</td>    <td>-$2.45</td>    <td>-$2.24</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Carvana Co. Class ACVNA</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$1.12</td>    <td>-$0.30</td>    <td>$1.70</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$2.05</td>    <td>-$1.35</td>    <td>-$1.00</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV</td>    <td>46%</td>    <td>$1.02</td>    <td>$1.19</td>    <td>$1.49</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Etsy Inc.ETSY</td>    <td>62%</td>    <td>$3.03</td>    <td>$3.52</td>    <td>$4.90</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Floor &amp; Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND</td>    <td>45%</td>    <td>$2.46</td>    <td>$2.88</td>    <td>$3.56</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Five Below Inc.FIVE</td>    <td>45%</td>    <td>$4.57</td>    <td>$5.60</td>    <td>$6.64</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td>    <td>N/A</td>    <td>-$0.42</td>    <td>-$0.24</td>    <td>$0.43</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>-2%</td>    <td>$33.22</td>    <td>$31.61</td>    <td>$32.59</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Wayfair Inc. Class AW</td>    <td>113%</td>    <td>$3.27</td>    <td>$4.74</td>    <td>$6.97</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>74%</td>    <td>$53.15</td>    <td>$67.39</td>    <td>$92.34</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU</td>    <td>50%</td>    <td>$6.73</td>    <td>$8.33</td>    <td>$10.08</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>7%</td>    <td>$7.03</td>    <td>$7.37</td>    <td>$7.52</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI</td>    <td>23%</td>    <td>$2.93</td>    <td>$3.24</td>    <td>$3.61</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>预计两年盈利增长</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2021</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2022</b></td><td><b>预计每股收益 – 2023</b></td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$1.23</td><td>-$0.42</td><td>-$0.23</td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.50</td><td>-$2.45</td><td>-$2.24</td></tr><tr><td>Carvana Co. 级 ACVNA</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$1.12</td><td>-$0.30</td><td>$1.70</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$2.05</td><td>-$1.35</td><td>-$1.00</td></tr><tr><td>Revolve Group, Inc 类别 ARVLV</td><td>46%</td><td>$1.02</td><td>$1.19</td><td>$1.49</td></tr><tr><td>Etsy公司</td><td>62%</td><td>$3.03</td><td>$3.52</td><td>$4.90</td></tr><tr><td>地板与装饰控股公司 AFND 类</td><td>45%</td><td>$2.46</td><td>$2.88</td><td>$3.56</td></tr><tr><td>五以下公司五</td><td>45%</td><td>$4.57</td><td>$5.60</td><td>$6.64</td></tr><tr><td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td><td>不适用</td><td>-$0.42</td><td>-$0.24</td><td>$0.43</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>-2%</td><td>$33.22</td><td>$31.61</td><td>$32.59</td></tr><tr><td>Wayfair Inc. AW 级</td><td>113%</td><td>$3.27</td><td>$4.74</td><td>$6.97</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>74%</td><td>$53.15</td><td>$67.39</td><td>$92.34</td></tr><tr><td>露露柠檬运动公司露露</td><td>50%</td><td>$6.73</td><td>$8.33</td><td>$10.08</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>7%</td><td>$7.03</td><td>$7.37</td><td>$7.52</td></tr><tr><td>奥利特价奥特莱斯控股公司</td><td>23%</td><td>$2.93</td><td>$3.24</td><td>$3.61</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a summary of analysts’ opinion about the list of best expected sales growers, also in the same order:</p><p><blockquote>以下是分析师对最佳预期销售额种植者名单的看法摘要，顺序也相同：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></td>    <td><b>Share “buy” ratings</b></td>    <td><b>Closing price – Aug. 20</b></td>    <td><b>Consensus price target</b></td>    <td><b>Implied 12-month upside potential</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td>    <td>88%</td>    <td>$21.26</td>    <td>$36.00</td>    <td>69%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Vroom Inc.VRM</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$25.02</td>    <td>$49.25</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Carvana Co. Class ACVNA</td>    <td>58%</td>    <td>$349.76</td>    <td>$379.09</td>    <td>8%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>RealReal Inc.REAL</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$12.35</td>    <td>$24.31</td>    <td>97%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV</td>    <td>71%</td>    <td>$57.68</td>    <td>$70.67</td>    <td>23%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Etsy Inc.ETSY</td>    <td>76%</td>    <td>$199.27</td>    <td>$215.93</td>    <td>8%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Floor &amp; Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND</td>    <td>87%</td>    <td>$117.75</td>    <td>$136.36</td>    <td>16%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Five Below Inc.FIVE</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$225.11</td>    <td>$232.70</td>    <td>3%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td>    <td>38%</td>    <td>$39.71</td>    <td>$62.13</td>    <td>56%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lithia Motors Inc.LAD</td>    <td>64%</td>    <td>$328.51</td>    <td>$468.83</td>    <td>43%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Wayfair Inc. Class AW</td>    <td>50%</td>    <td>$290.52</td>    <td>$324.64</td>    <td>12%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon.com Inc.AMZN</td>    <td>98%</td>    <td>$3,199.95</td>    <td>$4,164.30</td>    <td>30%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU</td>    <td>67%</td>    <td>$397.83</td>    <td>$401.63</td>    <td>1%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Sonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH</td>    <td>56%</td>    <td>$50.25</td>    <td>$65.71</td>    <td>31%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI</td>    <td>50%</td>    <td>$82.70</td>    <td>$98.00</td>    <td>19%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td><td><b>分享“买入”评级</b></td><td><b>收盘价 – 8 月 20 日</b></td><td><b>共识价格目标</b></td><td><b>隐含 12 个月上涨潜力</b></td></tr><tr><td>ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT</td><td>88%</td><td>$21.26</td><td>$36.00</td><td>69%</td></tr><tr><td>弗鲁姆公司VRM</td><td>67%</td><td>$25.02</td><td>$49.25</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>Carvana Co. 级 ACVNA</td><td>58%</td><td>$349.76</td><td>$379.09</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>RealReal公司REAL</td><td>67%</td><td>$12.35</td><td>$24.31</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>Revolve Group, Inc 类别 ARVLV</td><td>71%</td><td>$57.68</td><td>$70.67</td><td>23%</td></tr><tr><td>Etsy公司</td><td>76%</td><td>$199.27</td><td>$215.93</td><td>8%</td></tr><tr><td>地板与装饰控股公司 AFND 类</td><td>87%</td><td>$117.75</td><td>$136.36</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>五以下公司五</td><td>67%</td><td>$225.11</td><td>$232.70</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Stitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX</td><td>38%</td><td>$39.71</td><td>$62.13</td><td>56%</td></tr><tr><td>锂汽车公司LAD</td><td>64%</td><td>$328.51</td><td>$468.83</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>Wayfair Inc. AW 级</td><td>50%</td><td>$290.52</td><td>$324.64</td><td>12%</td></tr><tr><td>亚马逊公司AMZN</td><td>98%</td><td>$3,199.95</td><td>$4,164.30</td><td>30%</td></tr><tr><td>露露柠檬运动公司露露</td><td>67%</td><td>$397.83</td><td>$401.63</td><td>1%</td></tr><tr><td>索尼克汽车公司 ASAH 级</td><td>56%</td><td>$50.25</td><td>$65.71</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>奥利特价奥特莱斯控股公司</td><td>50%</td><td>$82.70</td><td>$98.00</td><td>19%</td></tr></tbody></table>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> If you see any stocks of interest here, you should do your own research and form your own opinion about the companies’ long-term strategies before considering an investment.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table>如果您在这里看到任何感兴趣的股票，在考虑投资之前，您应该自己做研究，并对公司的长期战略形成自己的看法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-of-retailers-are-expected-to-rise-up-to-97-over-the-next-year-11629745985?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAH":"索尼克汽车","AMZN":"亚马逊","M":"梅西百货","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","TGT":"塔吉特","LAD":"利西亚车行","VRM":"Vroom, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-of-retailers-are-expected-to-rise-up-to-97-over-the-next-year-11629745985?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772199","content_text":"Amazon is one of five that also make the list of those retailers expected to increase sales the fastest\nAnalysts polled by FactSet expect shares of Vroom, which sells used cars directly to consumers, to rise 97% over the next 12 months.\nWith so many challenges for traditional retailers, investors can be forgiven for giving up on the entire sector. But there is money to be made if you focus on innovative sellers and maybe even on traditional brick-and-mortar retailers that are cleaning up their acts.\nBelow are two lists of stocks of retailers, broadly defined by FactSet to include specialized companies such as Vroom Inc. and Carvana Co. , which sell (and buy) used cars online. The first list includes 15 stocks that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, and the second list shows companies expected to increase their sales the most over the next two years.\nTwo retailers that didn't make either list are Macy's Inc. and Target Corp.. Both are worth watching, although investors with shorter-term horizons may find them pricey.\nShares of Macy's had nearly doubled for 2021 through last week. The stock popped 20% on Aug. 19, after the company reported with WHP Global to sell more Toys 'R' Us items in its stores. The stock closed at $22.39 on Aug. 20 -- a penny above the consensus 12-month price target among analysts polled by FactSet. Of course, analysts can change their estimates in light of recent news.\nTarget's stock is up 49% this year. The company also reported a much-improved second quarter . Target's shares closed at $253.40 on Aug. 20, 10% below the consensus price target of $277.66.\nAnalysts' favorite retail stocks\nStarting with the Russell 3000 Index , there are 124 stocks of companies in retail industries, according to FactSet's industry group descriptions. These include online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$ and the direct used-auto retailers mentioned above.\nAmong those stocks, 77 have stock-market values of at least $1 billion, are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet and have consensus sales and earnings estimates available through 2023.\nHere are the 15 stocks with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings that the analysts believe have the most upside potential over the next year:\n\n\n\nCompany\nShare “buy” ratings\nClosing price – Aug. 20\nConsensus price target\nImplied 12-month upside potential\n\n\nVroom Inc.VRM\n67%\n$25.02\n$49.25\n97%\n\n\nRealReal Inc.REAL\n67%\n$12.35\n$24.31\n97%\n\n\nOverstock.com Inc.OSTK\n100%\n$69.58\n$127.60\n83%\n\n\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT\n88%\n$21.26\n$36.00\n69%\n\n\nGroup 1 Automotive Inc.GPI\n67%\n$159.01\n$251.40\n58%\n\n\nLeslie’s Inc.LESL\n75%\n$22.59\n$32.64\n44%\n\n\nLithia Motors Inc.LAD\n64%\n$328.51\n$468.83\n43%\n\n\nIAA Inc.IAA\n90%\n$51.71\n$72.38\n40%\n\n\nAbercrombie & Fitch Co. Class AANF\n58%\n$38.02\n$52.11\n37%\n\n\nTapestry Inc.TPR\n62%\n$40.58\n$54.89\n35%\n\n\nCapri Holdings Ltd.CPRI\n61%\n$54.33\n$72.35\n33%\n\n\nSonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH\n56%\n$50.25\n$65.71\n31%\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.AMZN\n98%\n$3,199.95\n$4,164.30\n30%\n\n\nHibbett Inc.HIBB\n83%\n$85.14\n$110.67\n30%\n\n\nAmerican Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO\n64%\n$32.37\n$41.31\n28%\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nUsing the same order, here are sales estimates for the group through 2023:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nExpected two-year sales increase\nEstimated revenue – 2021\nEstimated revenue – 2022\nEstimated revenue – 2023\n\n\nVroom Inc.VRM\n117%\n$3,060\n$4,514\n$6,652\n\n\nRealReal Inc.REAL\n65%\n$447\n$592\n$736\n\n\nOverstock.com Inc.OSTK\n17%\n$2,830\n$3,186\n$3,321\n\n\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT\n175%\n$200\n$328\n$550\n\n\nGroup 1 Automotive Inc.GPI\n11%\n$13,480\n$14,680\n$15,025\n\n\nLeslie’s Inc.LESL\n14%\n$1,342\n$1,442\n$1,536\n\n\nLithia Motors Inc.LAD\n41%\n$21,902\n$26,515\n$30,801\n\n\nIAA Inc.IAA\n15%\n$1,706\n$1,781\n$1,962\n\n\nAbercrombie & Fitch Co. Class AANF\n4%\n$3,680\n$3,847\n$3,841\n\n\nTapestry Inc.TPR\n11%\n$6,066\n$6,531\n$6,725\n\n\nCapri Holdings Ltd.CPRI\n24%\n$5,017\n$5,752\n$6,205\n\n\nSonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH\n34%\n$12,390\n$14,196\n$16,569\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.AMZN\n38%\n$476,170\n$563,466\n$657,295\n\n\nHibbett Inc.HIBB\n13%\n$1,504\n$1,581\n$1,706\n\n\nAmerican Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO\n17%\n$4,917\n$5,355\n$5,742\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nThe estimates are for calendar years, but note that many retailers' fiscal years don't match the calendar.\nAlso using the same list, here are estimates for earnings per share through 2023:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nExpected two-year EPS change\nEstimated EPS – 2021\nEstimated EPS – 2022\nEstimated EPS – 2023\n\n\nVroom Inc.VRM\nN/A\n-$2.50\n-$2.45\n-$2.24\n\n\nRealReal Inc.REAL\nN/A\n-$2.05\n-$1.35\n-$1.00\n\n\nOverstock.com Inc.OSTK\n-4%\n$2.56\n$2.73\n$2.46\n\n\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT\nN/A\n-$1.23\n-$0.42\n-$0.23\n\n\nGroup 1 Automotive Inc.GPI\n-19%\n$30.30\n$28.09\n$24.61\n\n\nLeslie’s Inc.LESL\n16%\n$0.85\n$0.90\n$0.98\n\n\nLithia Motors Inc.LAD\n-2%\n$33.22\n$31.61\n$32.59\n\n\nIAA Inc.IAA\n19%\n$2.33\n$2.44\n$2.76\n\n\nAbercrombie & Fitch Co. Class AANF\n-10%\n$3.16\n$3.18\n$2.85\n\n\nTapestry Inc.TPR\n22%\n$3.17\n$3.55\n$3.85\n\n\nCapri Holdings Ltd.CPRI\n53%\n$3.93\n$5.17\n$5.99\n\n\nSonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH\n7%\n$7.03\n$7.37\n$7.52\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.AMZN\n74%\n$53.15\n$67.39\n$92.34\n\n\nHibbett Inc.HIBB\n13%\n$8.89\n$8.88\n$10.04\n\n\nAmerican Eagle Outfitters Inc.AEO\n34%\n$1.97\n$2.33\n$2.63\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nFor three of the companies, the expected two-year change in EPS is \"N/A\" because estimated earnings for 2021 or 2023, or both, are negative.\nFastest expected sales increases\nStarting again with the 77 retailers that have market capitalizations of at least $1 billion and are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, here are the 15 expected to increase their sales the most over the next two years:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nExpected two-year sales increase\nEstimated revenue – 2021\nEstimated revenue – 2022\nEstimated revenue – 2023\n\n\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT\n175%\n$200\n$328\n$550\n\n\nVroom Inc.VRM\n117%\n$3,060\n$4,514\n$6,652\n\n\nCarvana Co. Class ACVNA\n76%\n$11,775\n$15,468\n$20,680\n\n\nRealReal Inc.REAL\n65%\n$447\n$592\n$736\n\n\nRevolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV\n47%\n$818\n$1,004\n$1,206\n\n\nEtsy Inc.ETSY\n47%\n$2,280\n$2,747\n$3,351\n\n\nFloor & Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND\n46%\n$3,339\n$4,007\n$4,874\n\n\nFive Below Inc.FIVE\n41%\n$2,717\n$3,264\n$3,841\n\n\nStitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX\n41%\n$2,240\n$2,622\n$3,161\n\n\nLithia Motors Inc.LAD\n41%\n$21,902\n$26,515\n$30,801\n\n\nWayfair Inc. Class AW\n39%\n$14,393\n$17,228\n$20,049\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.AMZN\n38%\n$476,170\n$563,466\n$657,295\n\n\nLululemon Athletica Inc.LULU\n37%\n$5,804\n$6,877\n$7,963\n\n\nSonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH\n34%\n$12,390\n$14,196\n$16,569\n\n\nOllie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI\n26%\n$1,868\n$2,088\n$2,363\n\n\n\nSource: FacSet\nOnly five companies make both this list and that with the most implied upside potential for their stock price: ChargePoint Holdings Inc. (CHPT), Vroom, RealReal Inc. $(REAL)$, Lithia Motors Inc. $(LAD)$, Amazon and Sonic Automotive Inc. $(SAH)$.\nHere are EPS estimates for the list of best expected sales growers, using the same order as those with the fastest expected sales growth:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nExpected two-year earnings increase\nEstimated EPS – 2021\nEstimated EPS – 2022\nEstimated EPS – 2023\n\n\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT\nN/A\n-$1.23\n-$0.42\n-$0.23\n\n\nVroom Inc.VRM\nN/A\n-$2.50\n-$2.45\n-$2.24\n\n\nCarvana Co. Class ACVNA\nN/A\n-$1.12\n-$0.30\n$1.70\n\n\nRealReal Inc.REAL\nN/A\n-$2.05\n-$1.35\n-$1.00\n\n\nRevolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV\n46%\n$1.02\n$1.19\n$1.49\n\n\nEtsy Inc.ETSY\n62%\n$3.03\n$3.52\n$4.90\n\n\nFloor & Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND\n45%\n$2.46\n$2.88\n$3.56\n\n\nFive Below Inc.FIVE\n45%\n$4.57\n$5.60\n$6.64\n\n\nStitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX\nN/A\n-$0.42\n-$0.24\n$0.43\n\n\nLithia Motors Inc.LAD\n-2%\n$33.22\n$31.61\n$32.59\n\n\nWayfair Inc. Class AW\n113%\n$3.27\n$4.74\n$6.97\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.AMZN\n74%\n$53.15\n$67.39\n$92.34\n\n\nLululemon Athletica Inc.LULU\n50%\n$6.73\n$8.33\n$10.08\n\n\nSonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH\n7%\n$7.03\n$7.37\n$7.52\n\n\nOllie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI\n23%\n$2.93\n$3.24\n$3.61\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nHere’s a summary of analysts’ opinion about the list of best expected sales growers, also in the same order:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nShare “buy” ratings\nClosing price – Aug. 20\nConsensus price target\nImplied 12-month upside potential\n\n\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class ACHPT\n88%\n$21.26\n$36.00\n69%\n\n\nVroom Inc.VRM\n67%\n$25.02\n$49.25\n97%\n\n\nCarvana Co. Class ACVNA\n58%\n$349.76\n$379.09\n8%\n\n\nRealReal Inc.REAL\n67%\n$12.35\n$24.31\n97%\n\n\nRevolve Group, Inc Class ARVLV\n71%\n$57.68\n$70.67\n23%\n\n\nEtsy Inc.ETSY\n76%\n$199.27\n$215.93\n8%\n\n\nFloor & Decor Holdings Inc. Class AFND\n87%\n$117.75\n$136.36\n16%\n\n\nFive Below Inc.FIVE\n67%\n$225.11\n$232.70\n3%\n\n\nStitch Fix Inc. Class ASFIX\n38%\n$39.71\n$62.13\n56%\n\n\nLithia Motors Inc.LAD\n64%\n$328.51\n$468.83\n43%\n\n\nWayfair Inc. Class AW\n50%\n$290.52\n$324.64\n12%\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.AMZN\n98%\n$3,199.95\n$4,164.30\n30%\n\n\nLululemon Athletica Inc.LULU\n67%\n$397.83\n$401.63\n1%\n\n\nSonic Automotive Inc. Class ASAH\n56%\n$50.25\n$65.71\n31%\n\n\nOllie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.OLLI\n50%\n$82.70\n$98.00\n19%\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\nIf you see any stocks of interest here, you should do your own research and form your own opinion about the companies’ long-term strategies before considering an investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VRM":0.9,"CRCT":0.9,"TGT":0.9,"TERN":0.9,"SAH":0.9,"M":0.9,"CVNA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"CHPT":0.9,"LAD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834971282,"gmtCreate":1629769267446,"gmtModify":1631884789078,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The magic in Disney","listText":"The magic in Disney","text":"The magic in Disney","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834971282","repostId":"1102818813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897591573,"gmtCreate":1628936380792,"gmtModify":1631889963013,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba&nbsp;","text":"Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897591573","repostId":"1173847412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173847412","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628905097,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1173847412?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 09:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173847412","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others. The stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.I say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.The smart money signal: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insid","content":"<p>Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others</p><p><blockquote>公司内部人士和专业投资者正在购买阿里巴巴-SW、切格和动视暴雪等公司的股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a750143fbfb2e7d732bb3dcc80114d61\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（摄影：Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>股市接近历史高点，但火车失事季节即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Should you sell? After all, the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;and Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;often hit a rough patch in September and October.</p><p><blockquote>你应该卖吗？毕竟，标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯工业平均指数经常在 9 月和 10 月遭遇艰难时期。</blockquote></p><p> I say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.</p><p><blockquote>我说坚持住，确实可以考虑以下五家公司中的任何一家，因为它们都是 “聪明资金 ”的最爱。但首先，从大局来看，这里有三个坚持下去的理由。</blockquote></p><p> 1. There’s no guarantee that the seasonal weakness will repeat. Besides, the ability to time market turns is tough.</p><p><blockquote>1. 不能保证季节性疲软会重演。此外，把握市场转折的能力很难。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Fears about the delta variant of Covid are overblown. More people are getting vaccinated, and most of them won’t suffer severe symptoms if infected, say market strategists at T. Rowe Price.</p><p><blockquote>2. 对新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的担忧被夸大了。T. Rowe Price 的市场策略师说，越来越多的人接种了疫苗，他们中的大多数人如果被感染也不会出现严重症状。</blockquote></p><p> 3. There’s a lot of embedded demand in the economy and it will sustain growth, says Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>3. Leuthold 集团策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说，经济中有很多内在需求，它将持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> On the consumer front (most of the economy): Personal savings at a record high, durable goods purchases are near a 50-year low, and new household formation is at a record high. People buy stuff to fill new homes. Next, the economy has plenty of room to grow given the elevated jobless rate and big excess lending capacity at banks.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面（经济的大部分）：个人储蓄创历史新高，耐用品购买量接近50年来的最低点，新家庭形成量创历史新高。人们买东西来填满新家。其次，鉴于失业率上升和银行大量过剩贷款能力，经济有很大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Five smart money stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五只聪明的理财股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, I favor stocks that corporate insiders like. But not just&nbsp;<i>any</i>&nbsp;insiders. I go for stocks picked up by insiders with&nbsp;<i>great</i>&nbsp;records. Here are two, trading near where insiders just bought.</p><p><blockquote>在我的股票信中，我喜欢企业内部人士喜欢的股票。但不仅仅是<i>任何</i>内部人员。我喜欢内部人士买入的股票<i>伟大的</i>记录。这里有两个，在内部人士刚刚买入的地方附近交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Activision Blizzard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>动视暴雪</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the company behind the most popular and addictive online games — like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch and Candy Crush.<b>Activision Blizzard</b>&nbsp;makes money via game sales and subscriptions, by selling in-game content and ads. It has around 408 million regular users.</p><p><blockquote>这是最受欢迎和令人上瘾的网络游戏背后的公司——如《使命召唤的看涨期权》、《魔兽世界》、《暗黑破坏神》、《守望先锋》和《糖果粉碎》。<b>动视暴雪</b>通过游戏销售和订阅、销售游戏内内容和广告来赚钱。它拥有大约4.08亿普通用户。</blockquote></p><p> Besides winning over new fans, the company regularly launches new games and expands existing franchises — most recently with World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, in June. This addition marks “the start of what is intended to be a very significant 18-month period for content releases,” says the company. Sales grew 19% to $2.30 billion in the second quarter, and operating margins are rich at 42%.</p><p><blockquote>除了赢得新粉丝，该公司还定期推出新游戏并扩展现有的特许经营权——最近一次是在6月份推出的《魔兽世界：燃烧的十字军东征》。该公司表示，这一新增标志着 “为期 18 个月的内容发布期的开始”。第二季度销售额增长 19%，达到 23 亿美元，营业利润率高达 42%。</blockquote></p><p> One risk is that fallout from allegations of sexual misconduct and&nbsp;a related lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing will “make it difficult for the firm to attract and retain top talent in a very competitive industry,” says&nbsp;Morningstar analyst Neil Macker.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师尼尔-麦克（Neil Macker）说，一个风险是，性行为不端指控以及加州公平就业和住房部提起的相关诉讼将 “使该公司难以在竞争激烈的行业中吸引和留住顶尖人才”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insider to follow because he bought $4.3 million in March 2019 at $43 and the stock is now almost a double. Also, in my system of insider analysis, repeat buying on strength (as opposed to profit taking) is bullish. He also bought at $3.70 back in 2004.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>导演彼得·诺兰刚刚以每股 80-82.28 美元的价格购买了价值 200 万美元的股票。他是一个值得关注的内部人士，因为他在 2019 年 3 月以 43 美元的价格买入了 430 万美元，现在股价几乎翻了一番。此外，在我的内部分析系统中，重复强势买入（而不是获利了结）是看涨的。他还在2004年以3.70美元的价格买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>B. Riley Financial</b></p><p><blockquote><b>B. 莱利金融</b></blockquote></p><p> I introduced this name in my stock letter in March 2018 at $20 and reiterated it over a dozen times into strength after that. It now trades for over $65. Despite the hefty gains, I think&nbsp;<b>B. Riley Financia</b>&nbsp;is still a hold, and a buy for anyone who does not own.</p><p><blockquote>我在2018年3月以20美元的价格在我的股票信中介绍了这个名字，并在那之后重申了十几次。它现在的交易价格超过65美元。尽管收益巨大，但我认为<b>B. 莱利金融</b>仍然是持有，对于任何不拥有它的人来说都是买入。</blockquote></p><p> This is a Los Angeles-based investment bank that also manages money and does stock research. It specializes in small- and mid-cap stocks. B. Riley Financial is a good proxy for the overall market and the U.S. economy, given its banking and market-related businesses. This will be a plus, as economic growth holds up. It also continues to expand via acquisitions.&nbsp;Revenue grew 26% in the second quarter to $336.8 million, in part because of an acquisition. It pays a 2.9% dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家总部位于洛杉矶的投资银行，也管理资金和进行股票研究。它专注于中小盘股。B. Riley Financial 凭借其银行和市场相关业务，是整体市场和美国经济的良好代表。随着经济增长保持稳定，这将是一个优势。它还通过收购继续扩张。第二季度收入增长 26%，达到 3.368 亿美元，部分原因是收购。它支付2.9%的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: CEO Bryant Riley purchased $3.4 million worth of stock at $63 to $68 in early June and August. He has a long record of buying over $22 million worth of stock in the $8 to $48 range since 2014, including $6.6 million in purchases near the start of this year at $46 to $48.71 (already up over 40%).</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 首席执行官布莱恩特·莱利 (Bryant Riley) 在 6 月初和 8 月初以 63 至 68 美元的价格购买了价值 340 万美元的股票。自2014年以来，他在8美元至48美元范围内购买了价值超过2200万美元的股票，包括今年年初以46美元至48.71美元的价格购买了660万美元（已经上涨了40%以上）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alibaba Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b></blockquote></p><p> If you like to buy quality companies whose stocks are beaten down by a host of problems, then Chinese consumer platform&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group</b>&nbsp;may be for you.</p><p><blockquote>如果你喜欢购买股票因一系列问题而遭受重创的优质公司，那么中国消费者平台<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b>可能是给你的。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares are down 40% since October because of rising U.S.-China tensions, some weakness in its core consumer business, the possible loss of tax breaks in China, and allegations of sexual assault inside the company.</p><p><blockquote>由于中美紧张局势加剧、核心消费业务疲软、中国可能失去税收减免以及公司内部性侵犯指控，该公司股价自 10 月份以来已下跌 40%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These are serious issues, but this is also a company with serious potential. Over one billion consumers use its marketplaces, including 891 million in China and 240 million abroad. Organic sales growth is 32%. It’s in the early stages of rolling out its AliCloud cloud computing business, which could be the next big growth driver.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是严重的问题，但这也是一家具有巨大潜力的公司。超过10亿消费者使用其市场，其中8.91亿在中国，2.4亿在国外。有机销售额增长32%。该公司正处于推出 AliCloud 云计算业务的早期阶段，这可能是下一个重要的增长动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: This company is singled out by Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital, which has posted 22% annualized growth over the past five years compared to 17.7% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>Bastiat Capital 的 Albert Meyer 特别指出了这家公司，该公司在过去五年中的年化增长率为 22%，而标普500的年化增长率为 17.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An attractive spinoff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有吸引力的衍生产品</b></blockquote></p><p> One tactic that works fairly consistently in investing is buying spinoffs. Companies don’t like to burn shareholders, so they tend to do spinoffs at a discount, as a kind of “gift.” Money managers who get spun-off shares often dump them anyway, because the new company does not fit their mandate.</p><p><blockquote>投资中相当一致的一种策略是购买衍生产品。公司不喜欢烧伤股东，所以他们倾向于以折扣价进行分拆，作为一种 “礼物”。获得分拆股票的基金经理无论如何都会抛售它们，因为新公司不符合他们的职责。</blockquote></p><p> A good spinoff to consider right now is&nbsp;<b>Organon</b>,a mid-size pharma company. It was jettisoned from Merck&nbsp;in May. Organon just bounced 12% on Aug. 12 after it posted a solid quarter, but it still trades below the spinoff price of around $38. At this level, the stock looks attractively cheap, trading near five times 2021 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>现在可以考虑的一个好的衍生产品是<b>器官</b>一家中型制药公司。它于 5 月份被默克抛弃。 Organon 在公布了稳健的季度业绩后，于 8 月 12 日刚刚反弹 12%，但其交易价格仍低于 38 美元左右的分拆价格。在这个水平上，该股看起来很便宜，交易价格接近 2021 年市盈率的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Organon is cheap because it has issues. The chief one is the looming patent cliff on many of its products. Its Nexplanon birth control rolls off patent during 2025-2027, and that’s 11% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>当然，Organon很便宜，因为它有问题。最主要的一个是其许多产品迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其 Nexplanon 避孕药将于 2025-2027 年期间获得专利，占销售额的 11%。</blockquote></p><p> But this might not be such a threat. “There is a strong possibility that it can extend its patent to as late as 2030,” says Bruce Kaser, a value investor who is the editor of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. Nexplanon is a rod implanted under the skin, so women may be reluctant to go with a discount version. Another problem: Organon sells into China, where the government is cutting the prices of its products. But the worst of the damage may be over.</p><p><blockquote>但这可能不是这样的威胁。“卡伯特扭亏为盈信的编辑、价值投资者布鲁斯-卡瑟（Bruce Kaser）说：”该公司很有可能将专利延长至 2030 年。Nexplanon是一种植入皮下的棒，所以女性可能不愿意选择打折版本。另一个问题是：Organon销往中国，中国政府正在降低其产品价格。但最严重的损害可能已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> On the upside, Organon plans to regularly launch new products. And the company has $1.3 billion in annual free cash flow supporting a dividend yield of 3.3%.</p><p><blockquote>从好的方面来看，Organon计划定期推出新产品。该公司每年拥有 13 亿美元的自由现金流，支持 3.3% 的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Organon was recently suggested in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which has a good record. Its portfolio is up 135.8% in the past 12 months, compared with 36.5% for S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: Organon 最近在 Cabot 扭亏为盈的信中被建议，该信中有着良好的记录。过去 12 个月，其投资组合增长了 135.8%，而标普500的投资组合增长了 36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An education play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>教育剧</b></blockquote></p><p> If universities have allowed their participation in the culture wars to distract them from the core mission of basic education,<b>Chegg</b>&nbsp;is there to pick up the slack.</p><p><blockquote>如果大学允许他们参与文化战争来分散他们对基础教育核心使命的注意力，<b>切格</b>是来收拾残局的。</blockquote></p><p> This online education company helps college and high school students master their math and writing skills. The company also helps students save on expensive text books by offering rentals and e-textbook versions.</p><p><blockquote>这家在线教育公司帮助大学生和高中生掌握数学和写作技能。该公司还通过提供租赁和电子教科书版本来帮助学生节省昂贵的教科书费用。</blockquote></p><p> While online education has a black eye, Chegg is the exception. Last year student subscriptions jumped 67% to 6.6 million from a year earlier. Sales grew 30% in the quarter, and the company guided to 28% sales growth for this year, to $805 million to $815 million.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在线教育有黑眼圈，但切格是个例外。去年，学生订阅量比上年同期增长了 67%，达到 660 万。本季度销售额增长了 30%，该公司预计今年销售额增长 28%，达到 8.05 亿至 8.15 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Online learning had a bad reputation for overcharging, while success rates were minimal,” says money manager Kevin Landis. “But Chegg is different.”</p><p><blockquote>“资金经理凯文-兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）说：”在线学习因收费过高而名声不佳，而成功率却很低。“但切格不同。”</blockquote></p><p> He likes the robust growth in the U.S. and the big potential for international growth, particularly in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢美国的强劲增长以及国际增长的巨大潜力，尤其是在亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Landis’ Firsthand Technology Opportunities&nbsp;beats its Morningstar technology fund category by eight percentage points annualized over the past five years. Chegg is the second-largest position, at 8% of the portfolio. Chegg is the sixth-biggest holding of the Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund,which beats its mid-cap growth category by 5.7 percentage points annualized over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 在过去五年中，兰迪斯的第一手技术机会比晨星技术基金类别高出 8 个百分点。Chegg 是第二大头寸，占投资组合的 8%。Chegg 是 Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund 的第六大持股， 该基金在过去五年中年化比中型增长类别高出 5.7 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 09:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others</p><p><blockquote>公司内部人士和专业投资者正在购买阿里巴巴-SW、切格和动视暴雪等公司的股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a750143fbfb2e7d732bb3dcc80114d61\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（摄影：Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>股市接近历史高点，但火车失事季节即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Should you sell? After all, the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;and Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;often hit a rough patch in September and October.</p><p><blockquote>你应该卖吗？毕竟，标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯工业平均指数经常在 9 月和 10 月遭遇艰难时期。</blockquote></p><p> I say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.</p><p><blockquote>我说坚持住，确实可以考虑以下五家公司中的任何一家，因为它们都是 “聪明资金 ”的最爱。但首先，从大局来看，这里有三个坚持下去的理由。</blockquote></p><p> 1. There’s no guarantee that the seasonal weakness will repeat. Besides, the ability to time market turns is tough.</p><p><blockquote>1. 不能保证季节性疲软会重演。此外，把握市场转折的能力很难。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Fears about the delta variant of Covid are overblown. More people are getting vaccinated, and most of them won’t suffer severe symptoms if infected, say market strategists at T. Rowe Price.</p><p><blockquote>2. 对新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的担忧被夸大了。T. Rowe Price 的市场策略师说，越来越多的人接种了疫苗，他们中的大多数人如果被感染也不会出现严重症状。</blockquote></p><p> 3. There’s a lot of embedded demand in the economy and it will sustain growth, says Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>3. Leuthold 集团策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说，经济中有很多内在需求，它将持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> On the consumer front (most of the economy): Personal savings at a record high, durable goods purchases are near a 50-year low, and new household formation is at a record high. People buy stuff to fill new homes. Next, the economy has plenty of room to grow given the elevated jobless rate and big excess lending capacity at banks.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面（经济的大部分）：个人储蓄创历史新高，耐用品购买量接近50年来的最低点，新家庭形成量创历史新高。人们买东西来填满新家。其次，鉴于失业率上升和银行大量过剩贷款能力，经济有很大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Five smart money stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五只聪明的理财股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, I favor stocks that corporate insiders like. But not just&nbsp;<i>any</i>&nbsp;insiders. I go for stocks picked up by insiders with&nbsp;<i>great</i>&nbsp;records. Here are two, trading near where insiders just bought.</p><p><blockquote>在我的股票信中，我喜欢企业内部人士喜欢的股票。但不仅仅是<i>任何</i>内部人员。我喜欢内部人士买入的股票<i>伟大的</i>记录。这里有两个，在内部人士刚刚买入的地方附近交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Activision Blizzard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>动视暴雪</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the company behind the most popular and addictive online games — like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch and Candy Crush.<b>Activision Blizzard</b>&nbsp;makes money via game sales and subscriptions, by selling in-game content and ads. It has around 408 million regular users.</p><p><blockquote>这是最受欢迎和令人上瘾的网络游戏背后的公司——如《使命召唤的看涨期权》、《魔兽世界》、《暗黑破坏神》、《守望先锋》和《糖果粉碎》。<b>动视暴雪</b>通过游戏销售和订阅、销售游戏内内容和广告来赚钱。它拥有大约4.08亿普通用户。</blockquote></p><p> Besides winning over new fans, the company regularly launches new games and expands existing franchises — most recently with World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, in June. This addition marks “the start of what is intended to be a very significant 18-month period for content releases,” says the company. Sales grew 19% to $2.30 billion in the second quarter, and operating margins are rich at 42%.</p><p><blockquote>除了赢得新粉丝，该公司还定期推出新游戏并扩展现有的特许经营权——最近一次是在6月份推出的《魔兽世界：燃烧的十字军东征》。该公司表示，这一新增标志着 “为期 18 个月的内容发布期的开始”。第二季度销售额增长 19%，达到 23 亿美元，营业利润率高达 42%。</blockquote></p><p> One risk is that fallout from allegations of sexual misconduct and&nbsp;a related lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing will “make it difficult for the firm to attract and retain top talent in a very competitive industry,” says&nbsp;Morningstar analyst Neil Macker.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师尼尔-麦克（Neil Macker）说，一个风险是，性行为不端指控以及加州公平就业和住房部提起的相关诉讼将 “使该公司难以在竞争激烈的行业中吸引和留住顶尖人才”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insider to follow because he bought $4.3 million in March 2019 at $43 and the stock is now almost a double. Also, in my system of insider analysis, repeat buying on strength (as opposed to profit taking) is bullish. He also bought at $3.70 back in 2004.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>导演彼得·诺兰刚刚以每股 80-82.28 美元的价格购买了价值 200 万美元的股票。他是一个值得关注的内部人士，因为他在 2019 年 3 月以 43 美元的价格买入了 430 万美元，现在股价几乎翻了一番。此外，在我的内部分析系统中，重复强势买入（而不是获利了结）是看涨的。他还在2004年以3.70美元的价格买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>B. Riley Financial</b></p><p><blockquote><b>B. 莱利金融</b></blockquote></p><p> I introduced this name in my stock letter in March 2018 at $20 and reiterated it over a dozen times into strength after that. It now trades for over $65. Despite the hefty gains, I think&nbsp;<b>B. Riley Financia</b>&nbsp;is still a hold, and a buy for anyone who does not own.</p><p><blockquote>我在2018年3月以20美元的价格在我的股票信中介绍了这个名字，并在那之后重申了十几次。它现在的交易价格超过65美元。尽管收益巨大，但我认为<b>B. 莱利金融</b>仍然是持有，对于任何不拥有它的人来说都是买入。</blockquote></p><p> This is a Los Angeles-based investment bank that also manages money and does stock research. It specializes in small- and mid-cap stocks. B. Riley Financial is a good proxy for the overall market and the U.S. economy, given its banking and market-related businesses. This will be a plus, as economic growth holds up. It also continues to expand via acquisitions.&nbsp;Revenue grew 26% in the second quarter to $336.8 million, in part because of an acquisition. It pays a 2.9% dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家总部位于洛杉矶的投资银行，也管理资金和进行股票研究。它专注于中小盘股。B. Riley Financial 凭借其银行和市场相关业务，是整体市场和美国经济的良好代表。随着经济增长保持稳定，这将是一个优势。它还通过收购继续扩张。第二季度收入增长 26%，达到 3.368 亿美元，部分原因是收购。它支付2.9%的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: CEO Bryant Riley purchased $3.4 million worth of stock at $63 to $68 in early June and August. He has a long record of buying over $22 million worth of stock in the $8 to $48 range since 2014, including $6.6 million in purchases near the start of this year at $46 to $48.71 (already up over 40%).</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 首席执行官布莱恩特·莱利 (Bryant Riley) 在 6 月初和 8 月初以 63 至 68 美元的价格购买了价值 340 万美元的股票。自2014年以来，他在8美元至48美元范围内购买了价值超过2200万美元的股票，包括今年年初以46美元至48.71美元的价格购买了660万美元（已经上涨了40%以上）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alibaba Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b></blockquote></p><p> If you like to buy quality companies whose stocks are beaten down by a host of problems, then Chinese consumer platform&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group</b>&nbsp;may be for you.</p><p><blockquote>如果你喜欢购买股票因一系列问题而遭受重创的优质公司，那么中国消费者平台<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b>可能是给你的。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares are down 40% since October because of rising U.S.-China tensions, some weakness in its core consumer business, the possible loss of tax breaks in China, and allegations of sexual assault inside the company.</p><p><blockquote>由于中美紧张局势加剧、核心消费业务疲软、中国可能失去税收减免以及公司内部性侵犯指控，该公司股价自 10 月份以来已下跌 40%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These are serious issues, but this is also a company with serious potential. Over one billion consumers use its marketplaces, including 891 million in China and 240 million abroad. Organic sales growth is 32%. It’s in the early stages of rolling out its AliCloud cloud computing business, which could be the next big growth driver.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是严重的问题，但这也是一家具有巨大潜力的公司。超过10亿消费者使用其市场，其中8.91亿在中国，2.4亿在国外。有机销售额增长32%。该公司正处于推出 AliCloud 云计算业务的早期阶段，这可能是下一个重要的增长动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: This company is singled out by Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital, which has posted 22% annualized growth over the past five years compared to 17.7% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>Bastiat Capital 的 Albert Meyer 特别指出了这家公司，该公司在过去五年中的年化增长率为 22%，而标普500的年化增长率为 17.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An attractive spinoff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有吸引力的衍生产品</b></blockquote></p><p> One tactic that works fairly consistently in investing is buying spinoffs. Companies don’t like to burn shareholders, so they tend to do spinoffs at a discount, as a kind of “gift.” Money managers who get spun-off shares often dump them anyway, because the new company does not fit their mandate.</p><p><blockquote>投资中相当一致的一种策略是购买衍生产品。公司不喜欢烧伤股东，所以他们倾向于以折扣价进行分拆，作为一种 “礼物”。获得分拆股票的基金经理无论如何都会抛售它们，因为新公司不符合他们的职责。</blockquote></p><p> A good spinoff to consider right now is&nbsp;<b>Organon</b>,a mid-size pharma company. It was jettisoned from Merck&nbsp;in May. Organon just bounced 12% on Aug. 12 after it posted a solid quarter, but it still trades below the spinoff price of around $38. At this level, the stock looks attractively cheap, trading near five times 2021 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>现在可以考虑的一个好的衍生产品是<b>器官</b>一家中型制药公司。它于 5 月份被默克抛弃。 Organon 在公布了稳健的季度业绩后，于 8 月 12 日刚刚反弹 12%，但其交易价格仍低于 38 美元左右的分拆价格。在这个水平上，该股看起来很便宜，交易价格接近 2021 年市盈率的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Organon is cheap because it has issues. The chief one is the looming patent cliff on many of its products. Its Nexplanon birth control rolls off patent during 2025-2027, and that’s 11% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>当然，Organon很便宜，因为它有问题。最主要的一个是其许多产品迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其 Nexplanon 避孕药将于 2025-2027 年期间获得专利，占销售额的 11%。</blockquote></p><p> But this might not be such a threat. “There is a strong possibility that it can extend its patent to as late as 2030,” says Bruce Kaser, a value investor who is the editor of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. Nexplanon is a rod implanted under the skin, so women may be reluctant to go with a discount version. Another problem: Organon sells into China, where the government is cutting the prices of its products. But the worst of the damage may be over.</p><p><blockquote>但这可能不是这样的威胁。“卡伯特扭亏为盈信的编辑、价值投资者布鲁斯-卡瑟（Bruce Kaser）说：”该公司很有可能将专利延长至 2030 年。Nexplanon是一种植入皮下的棒，所以女性可能不愿意选择打折版本。另一个问题是：Organon销往中国，中国政府正在降低其产品价格。但最严重的损害可能已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> On the upside, Organon plans to regularly launch new products. And the company has $1.3 billion in annual free cash flow supporting a dividend yield of 3.3%.</p><p><blockquote>从好的方面来看，Organon计划定期推出新产品。该公司每年拥有 13 亿美元的自由现金流，支持 3.3% 的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Organon was recently suggested in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which has a good record. Its portfolio is up 135.8% in the past 12 months, compared with 36.5% for S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: Organon 最近在 Cabot 扭亏为盈的信中被建议，该信中有着良好的记录。过去 12 个月，其投资组合增长了 135.8%，而标普500的投资组合增长了 36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An education play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>教育剧</b></blockquote></p><p> If universities have allowed their participation in the culture wars to distract them from the core mission of basic education,<b>Chegg</b>&nbsp;is there to pick up the slack.</p><p><blockquote>如果大学允许他们参与文化战争来分散他们对基础教育核心使命的注意力，<b>切格</b>是来收拾残局的。</blockquote></p><p> This online education company helps college and high school students master their math and writing skills. The company also helps students save on expensive text books by offering rentals and e-textbook versions.</p><p><blockquote>这家在线教育公司帮助大学生和高中生掌握数学和写作技能。该公司还通过提供租赁和电子教科书版本来帮助学生节省昂贵的教科书费用。</blockquote></p><p> While online education has a black eye, Chegg is the exception. Last year student subscriptions jumped 67% to 6.6 million from a year earlier. Sales grew 30% in the quarter, and the company guided to 28% sales growth for this year, to $805 million to $815 million.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在线教育有黑眼圈，但切格是个例外。去年，学生订阅量比上年同期增长了 67%，达到 660 万。本季度销售额增长了 30%，该公司预计今年销售额增长 28%，达到 8.05 亿至 8.15 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Online learning had a bad reputation for overcharging, while success rates were minimal,” says money manager Kevin Landis. “But Chegg is different.”</p><p><blockquote>“资金经理凯文-兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）说：”在线学习因收费过高而名声不佳，而成功率却很低。“但切格不同。”</blockquote></p><p> He likes the robust growth in the U.S. and the big potential for international growth, particularly in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢美国的强劲增长以及国际增长的巨大潜力，尤其是在亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Landis’ Firsthand Technology Opportunities&nbsp;beats its Morningstar technology fund category by eight percentage points annualized over the past five years. Chegg is the second-largest position, at 8% of the portfolio. Chegg is the sixth-biggest holding of the Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund,which beats its mid-cap growth category by 5.7 percentage points annualized over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 在过去五年中，兰迪斯的第一手技术机会比晨星技术基金类别高出 8 个百分点。Chegg 是第二大头寸，占投资组合的 8%。Chegg 是 Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund 的第六大持股， 该基金在过去五年中年化比中型增长类别高出 5.7 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-youre-nervous-about-the-stock-market-at-record-highs-consider-these-five-companies-that-are-loved-by-the-smart-money-11628865442?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHGG":"Chegg Inc","OGN":"Organon & Co","BABA":"阿里巴巴","RILY":"BRC Group Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-youre-nervous-about-the-stock-market-at-record-highs-consider-these-five-companies-that-are-loved-by-the-smart-money-11628865442?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173847412","content_text":"Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others\n(Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)\nThe stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.\nShould you sell? After all, the S&P 500,Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average often hit a rough patch in September and October.\nI say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.\n1. There’s no guarantee that the seasonal weakness will repeat. Besides, the ability to time market turns is tough.\n2. Fears about the delta variant of Covid are overblown. More people are getting vaccinated, and most of them won’t suffer severe symptoms if infected, say market strategists at T. Rowe Price.\n3. There’s a lot of embedded demand in the economy and it will sustain growth, says Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen.\nOn the consumer front (most of the economy): Personal savings at a record high, durable goods purchases are near a 50-year low, and new household formation is at a record high. People buy stuff to fill new homes. Next, the economy has plenty of room to grow given the elevated jobless rate and big excess lending capacity at banks.\nFive smart money stocks\nAt my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, I favor stocks that corporate insiders like. But not just any insiders. I go for stocks picked up by insiders with great records. Here are two, trading near where insiders just bought.\nActivision Blizzard\nThis is the company behind the most popular and addictive online games — like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch and Candy Crush.Activision Blizzard makes money via game sales and subscriptions, by selling in-game content and ads. It has around 408 million regular users.\nBesides winning over new fans, the company regularly launches new games and expands existing franchises — most recently with World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, in June. This addition marks “the start of what is intended to be a very significant 18-month period for content releases,” says the company. Sales grew 19% to $2.30 billion in the second quarter, and operating margins are rich at 42%.\nOne risk is that fallout from allegations of sexual misconduct and a related lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing will “make it difficult for the firm to attract and retain top talent in a very competitive industry,” says Morningstar analyst Neil Macker.\nThe smart money signal: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insider to follow because he bought $4.3 million in March 2019 at $43 and the stock is now almost a double. Also, in my system of insider analysis, repeat buying on strength (as opposed to profit taking) is bullish. He also bought at $3.70 back in 2004.\nB. Riley Financial\nI introduced this name in my stock letter in March 2018 at $20 and reiterated it over a dozen times into strength after that. It now trades for over $65. Despite the hefty gains, I think B. Riley Financia is still a hold, and a buy for anyone who does not own.\nThis is a Los Angeles-based investment bank that also manages money and does stock research. It specializes in small- and mid-cap stocks. B. Riley Financial is a good proxy for the overall market and the U.S. economy, given its banking and market-related businesses. This will be a plus, as economic growth holds up. It also continues to expand via acquisitions. Revenue grew 26% in the second quarter to $336.8 million, in part because of an acquisition. It pays a 2.9% dividend yield.\nThe smart money signal: CEO Bryant Riley purchased $3.4 million worth of stock at $63 to $68 in early June and August. He has a long record of buying over $22 million worth of stock in the $8 to $48 range since 2014, including $6.6 million in purchases near the start of this year at $46 to $48.71 (already up over 40%).\nAlibaba Group\nIf you like to buy quality companies whose stocks are beaten down by a host of problems, then Chinese consumer platform Alibaba Group may be for you.\nIts shares are down 40% since October because of rising U.S.-China tensions, some weakness in its core consumer business, the possible loss of tax breaks in China, and allegations of sexual assault inside the company.\nThese are serious issues, but this is also a company with serious potential. Over one billion consumers use its marketplaces, including 891 million in China and 240 million abroad. Organic sales growth is 32%. It’s in the early stages of rolling out its AliCloud cloud computing business, which could be the next big growth driver.\nThe smart money signal: This company is singled out by Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital, which has posted 22% annualized growth over the past five years compared to 17.7% for the S&P 500.\nAn attractive spinoff\nOne tactic that works fairly consistently in investing is buying spinoffs. Companies don’t like to burn shareholders, so they tend to do spinoffs at a discount, as a kind of “gift.” Money managers who get spun-off shares often dump them anyway, because the new company does not fit their mandate.\nA good spinoff to consider right now is Organon,a mid-size pharma company. It was jettisoned from Merck in May. Organon just bounced 12% on Aug. 12 after it posted a solid quarter, but it still trades below the spinoff price of around $38. At this level, the stock looks attractively cheap, trading near five times 2021 earnings.\nOf course, Organon is cheap because it has issues. The chief one is the looming patent cliff on many of its products. Its Nexplanon birth control rolls off patent during 2025-2027, and that’s 11% of sales.\nBut this might not be such a threat. “There is a strong possibility that it can extend its patent to as late as 2030,” says Bruce Kaser, a value investor who is the editor of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. Nexplanon is a rod implanted under the skin, so women may be reluctant to go with a discount version. Another problem: Organon sells into China, where the government is cutting the prices of its products. But the worst of the damage may be over.\nOn the upside, Organon plans to regularly launch new products. And the company has $1.3 billion in annual free cash flow supporting a dividend yield of 3.3%.\nThe smart money signal: Organon was recently suggested in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which has a good record. Its portfolio is up 135.8% in the past 12 months, compared with 36.5% for S&P 500.\nAn education play\nIf universities have allowed their participation in the culture wars to distract them from the core mission of basic education,Chegg is there to pick up the slack.\nThis online education company helps college and high school students master their math and writing skills. The company also helps students save on expensive text books by offering rentals and e-textbook versions.\nWhile online education has a black eye, Chegg is the exception. Last year student subscriptions jumped 67% to 6.6 million from a year earlier. Sales grew 30% in the quarter, and the company guided to 28% sales growth for this year, to $805 million to $815 million.\n“Online learning had a bad reputation for overcharging, while success rates were minimal,” says money manager Kevin Landis. “But Chegg is different.”\nHe likes the robust growth in the U.S. and the big potential for international growth, particularly in Asia.\nThe smart money signal: Landis’ Firsthand Technology Opportunities beats its Morningstar technology fund category by eight percentage points annualized over the past five years. Chegg is the second-largest position, at 8% of the portfolio. Chegg is the sixth-biggest holding of the Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund,which beats its mid-cap growth category by 5.7 percentage points annualized over the past five years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"CHGG":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,"RILY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894106470,"gmtCreate":1628810015490,"gmtModify":1631889963014,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes indeed","listText":"Yes indeed","text":"Yes indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894106470","repostId":"1188620903","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891745637,"gmtCreate":1628435922329,"gmtModify":1631889963017,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah alright&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah alright&nbsp;","text":"Yeah alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891745637","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度交付量同比增长一倍多。</li><li>对电动汽车不断增长的需求可能会使特斯拉受益。</li><li>投资者在谈到分析师的目标价时应谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过 20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有这些涨幅，今年迄今为止的回报率为负 1%。这意味着该股的表现明显逊于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了 18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>二月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师 Alexander Potter 做出了大胆的看涨期权，将 The Growth 股票的 12 个月目标价从 515 美元上调至 1,200 美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从 2020 年的 50 万辆增加到今年的近 90 万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。然而，特斯拉发展极其迅速。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增加了一倍多，达到 201,304 辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望从市场份额增长、公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“被低估的机会”中受益。业务，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，高达 11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的 Autopilot 订阅服务将逐步改善这一利润率。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8 月 3 日，波特再次重申了该股的跑赢大盘评级和 1,200 美元的目标价，并表示“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对电池电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么什么给出了呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的可以上涨到 1,200 美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股票的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股票的价格略低于 700 美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来 12 个月内可能达到 1,200 美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为该股的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股票的市盈率约为 370，预计未来几年将实现强劲增长。由于该公司的估值主要基于遥远未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有不同，就会对当今该股的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师对股票设定了较高的目标价就迅速购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特对特斯拉强劲的业务势头确实有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长 50% 以上的指导，而这一指导是在世界各地许多公司（包括特斯拉）受到供应链短缺负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，第三季度对其汽车的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票 1,200 美元的目标价很难证明其合理性，但股价可能足够低，投资者可以开始少量持有该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度交付量同比增长一倍多。</li><li>对电动汽车不断增长的需求可能会使特斯拉受益。</li><li>投资者在谈到分析师的目标价时应谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过 20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有这些涨幅，今年迄今为止的回报率为负 1%。这意味着该股的表现明显逊于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了 18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>二月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师 Alexander Potter 做出了大胆的看涨期权，将 The Growth 股票的 12 个月目标价从 515 美元上调至 1,200 美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从 2020 年的 50 万辆增加到今年的近 90 万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。然而，特斯拉发展极其迅速。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增加了一倍多，达到 201,304 辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望从市场份额增长、公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“被低估的机会”中受益。业务，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，高达 11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的 Autopilot 订阅服务将逐步改善这一利润率。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8 月 3 日，波特再次重申了该股的跑赢大盘评级和 1,200 美元的目标价，并表示“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对电池电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么什么给出了呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的可以上涨到 1,200 美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股票的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股票的价格略低于 700 美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来 12 个月内可能达到 1,200 美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为该股的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股票的市盈率约为 370，预计未来几年将实现强劲增长。由于该公司的估值主要基于遥远未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有不同，就会对当今该股的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师对股票设定了较高的目标价就迅速购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特对特斯拉强劲的业务势头确实有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长 50% 以上的指导，而这一指导是在世界各地许多公司（包括特斯拉）受到供应链短缺负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，第三季度对其汽车的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票 1,200 美元的目标价很难证明其合理性，但股价可能足够低，投资者可以开始少量持有该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807901405,"gmtCreate":1627993794907,"gmtModify":1631889963020,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go&nbsp;Alibaba Go","listText":"Go&nbsp;Alibaba Go","text":"Go Alibaba Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807901405","repostId":"1181078046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807900670,"gmtCreate":1627993623390,"gmtModify":1631884337681,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy Etsy now?&nbsp;","listText":"Buy Etsy now?&nbsp;","text":"Buy Etsy now?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b262b1e35c5f302998c83e353525f2","width":"750","height":"2067"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807900670","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804360715,"gmtCreate":1627924863837,"gmtModify":1631889963023,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good buy&nbsp;","listText":"Good buy&nbsp;","text":"Good 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11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177550951,"gmtCreate":1627254528773,"gmtModify":1633766950997,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy some","listText":"Buy some","text":"Buy some","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8683382faf318bfecc6e9361960fee","width":"750","height":"1827"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177550951","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177108966,"gmtCreate":1627184138055,"gmtModify":1633767356758,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for the post.&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the post.&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the post.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177108966","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177375004,"gmtCreate":1627183679508,"gmtModify":1633767363226,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is it going to move?","listText":"Is it going to move?","text":"Is it going to move?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e515f21480d0c492562cb57acbc3d99a","width":"750","height":"1827"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177375004","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174325831,"gmtCreate":1627081357523,"gmtModify":1633768261422,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845497808923","idStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cleverness&nbsp;","listText":"Cleverness&nbsp;","text":"Cleverness","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174325831","repostId":"2153984780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177551384,"gmtCreate":1627254678548,"gmtModify":1633766947978,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584845497808923","authorIdStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177551384","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897591573,"gmtCreate":1628936380792,"gmtModify":1631889963013,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584845497808923","authorIdStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba&nbsp;","text":"Yeah my $ stuck at alibaba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897591573","repostId":"1173847412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173847412","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628905097,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1173847412?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 09:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173847412","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others. The stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.I say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.The smart money signal: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insid","content":"<p>Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others</p><p><blockquote>公司内部人士和专业投资者正在购买阿里巴巴-SW、切格和动视暴雪等公司的股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a750143fbfb2e7d732bb3dcc80114d61\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（摄影：Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>股市接近历史高点，但火车失事季节即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Should you sell? After all, the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;and Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;often hit a rough patch in September and October.</p><p><blockquote>你应该卖吗？毕竟，标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯工业平均指数经常在 9 月和 10 月遭遇艰难时期。</blockquote></p><p> I say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.</p><p><blockquote>我说坚持住，确实可以考虑以下五家公司中的任何一家，因为它们都是 “聪明资金 ”的最爱。但首先，从大局来看，这里有三个坚持下去的理由。</blockquote></p><p> 1. There’s no guarantee that the seasonal weakness will repeat. Besides, the ability to time market turns is tough.</p><p><blockquote>1. 不能保证季节性疲软会重演。此外，把握市场转折的能力很难。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Fears about the delta variant of Covid are overblown. More people are getting vaccinated, and most of them won’t suffer severe symptoms if infected, say market strategists at T. Rowe Price.</p><p><blockquote>2. 对新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的担忧被夸大了。T. Rowe Price 的市场策略师说，越来越多的人接种了疫苗，他们中的大多数人如果被感染也不会出现严重症状。</blockquote></p><p> 3. There’s a lot of embedded demand in the economy and it will sustain growth, says Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>3. Leuthold 集团策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说，经济中有很多内在需求，它将持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> On the consumer front (most of the economy): Personal savings at a record high, durable goods purchases are near a 50-year low, and new household formation is at a record high. People buy stuff to fill new homes. Next, the economy has plenty of room to grow given the elevated jobless rate and big excess lending capacity at banks.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面（经济的大部分）：个人储蓄创历史新高，耐用品购买量接近50年来的最低点，新家庭形成量创历史新高。人们买东西来填满新家。其次，鉴于失业率上升和银行大量过剩贷款能力，经济有很大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Five smart money stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五只聪明的理财股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, I favor stocks that corporate insiders like. But not just&nbsp;<i>any</i>&nbsp;insiders. I go for stocks picked up by insiders with&nbsp;<i>great</i>&nbsp;records. Here are two, trading near where insiders just bought.</p><p><blockquote>在我的股票信中，我喜欢企业内部人士喜欢的股票。但不仅仅是<i>任何</i>内部人员。我喜欢内部人士买入的股票<i>伟大的</i>记录。这里有两个，在内部人士刚刚买入的地方附近交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Activision Blizzard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>动视暴雪</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the company behind the most popular and addictive online games — like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch and Candy Crush.<b>Activision Blizzard</b>&nbsp;makes money via game sales and subscriptions, by selling in-game content and ads. It has around 408 million regular users.</p><p><blockquote>这是最受欢迎和令人上瘾的网络游戏背后的公司——如《使命召唤的看涨期权》、《魔兽世界》、《暗黑破坏神》、《守望先锋》和《糖果粉碎》。<b>动视暴雪</b>通过游戏销售和订阅、销售游戏内内容和广告来赚钱。它拥有大约4.08亿普通用户。</blockquote></p><p> Besides winning over new fans, the company regularly launches new games and expands existing franchises — most recently with World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, in June. This addition marks “the start of what is intended to be a very significant 18-month period for content releases,” says the company. Sales grew 19% to $2.30 billion in the second quarter, and operating margins are rich at 42%.</p><p><blockquote>除了赢得新粉丝，该公司还定期推出新游戏并扩展现有的特许经营权——最近一次是在6月份推出的《魔兽世界：燃烧的十字军东征》。该公司表示，这一新增标志着 “为期 18 个月的内容发布期的开始”。第二季度销售额增长 19%，达到 23 亿美元，营业利润率高达 42%。</blockquote></p><p> One risk is that fallout from allegations of sexual misconduct and&nbsp;a related lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing will “make it difficult for the firm to attract and retain top talent in a very competitive industry,” says&nbsp;Morningstar analyst Neil Macker.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师尼尔-麦克（Neil Macker）说，一个风险是，性行为不端指控以及加州公平就业和住房部提起的相关诉讼将 “使该公司难以在竞争激烈的行业中吸引和留住顶尖人才”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insider to follow because he bought $4.3 million in March 2019 at $43 and the stock is now almost a double. Also, in my system of insider analysis, repeat buying on strength (as opposed to profit taking) is bullish. He also bought at $3.70 back in 2004.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>导演彼得·诺兰刚刚以每股 80-82.28 美元的价格购买了价值 200 万美元的股票。他是一个值得关注的内部人士，因为他在 2019 年 3 月以 43 美元的价格买入了 430 万美元，现在股价几乎翻了一番。此外，在我的内部分析系统中，重复强势买入（而不是获利了结）是看涨的。他还在2004年以3.70美元的价格买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>B. Riley Financial</b></p><p><blockquote><b>B. 莱利金融</b></blockquote></p><p> I introduced this name in my stock letter in March 2018 at $20 and reiterated it over a dozen times into strength after that. It now trades for over $65. Despite the hefty gains, I think&nbsp;<b>B. Riley Financia</b>&nbsp;is still a hold, and a buy for anyone who does not own.</p><p><blockquote>我在2018年3月以20美元的价格在我的股票信中介绍了这个名字，并在那之后重申了十几次。它现在的交易价格超过65美元。尽管收益巨大，但我认为<b>B. 莱利金融</b>仍然是持有，对于任何不拥有它的人来说都是买入。</blockquote></p><p> This is a Los Angeles-based investment bank that also manages money and does stock research. It specializes in small- and mid-cap stocks. B. Riley Financial is a good proxy for the overall market and the U.S. economy, given its banking and market-related businesses. This will be a plus, as economic growth holds up. It also continues to expand via acquisitions.&nbsp;Revenue grew 26% in the second quarter to $336.8 million, in part because of an acquisition. It pays a 2.9% dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家总部位于洛杉矶的投资银行，也管理资金和进行股票研究。它专注于中小盘股。B. Riley Financial 凭借其银行和市场相关业务，是整体市场和美国经济的良好代表。随着经济增长保持稳定，这将是一个优势。它还通过收购继续扩张。第二季度收入增长 26%，达到 3.368 亿美元，部分原因是收购。它支付2.9%的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: CEO Bryant Riley purchased $3.4 million worth of stock at $63 to $68 in early June and August. He has a long record of buying over $22 million worth of stock in the $8 to $48 range since 2014, including $6.6 million in purchases near the start of this year at $46 to $48.71 (already up over 40%).</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 首席执行官布莱恩特·莱利 (Bryant Riley) 在 6 月初和 8 月初以 63 至 68 美元的价格购买了价值 340 万美元的股票。自2014年以来，他在8美元至48美元范围内购买了价值超过2200万美元的股票，包括今年年初以46美元至48.71美元的价格购买了660万美元（已经上涨了40%以上）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alibaba Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b></blockquote></p><p> If you like to buy quality companies whose stocks are beaten down by a host of problems, then Chinese consumer platform&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group</b>&nbsp;may be for you.</p><p><blockquote>如果你喜欢购买股票因一系列问题而遭受重创的优质公司，那么中国消费者平台<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b>可能是给你的。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares are down 40% since October because of rising U.S.-China tensions, some weakness in its core consumer business, the possible loss of tax breaks in China, and allegations of sexual assault inside the company.</p><p><blockquote>由于中美紧张局势加剧、核心消费业务疲软、中国可能失去税收减免以及公司内部性侵犯指控，该公司股价自 10 月份以来已下跌 40%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These are serious issues, but this is also a company with serious potential. Over one billion consumers use its marketplaces, including 891 million in China and 240 million abroad. Organic sales growth is 32%. It’s in the early stages of rolling out its AliCloud cloud computing business, which could be the next big growth driver.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是严重的问题，但这也是一家具有巨大潜力的公司。超过10亿消费者使用其市场，其中8.91亿在中国，2.4亿在国外。有机销售额增长32%。该公司正处于推出 AliCloud 云计算业务的早期阶段，这可能是下一个重要的增长动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: This company is singled out by Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital, which has posted 22% annualized growth over the past five years compared to 17.7% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>Bastiat Capital 的 Albert Meyer 特别指出了这家公司，该公司在过去五年中的年化增长率为 22%，而标普500的年化增长率为 17.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An attractive spinoff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有吸引力的衍生产品</b></blockquote></p><p> One tactic that works fairly consistently in investing is buying spinoffs. Companies don’t like to burn shareholders, so they tend to do spinoffs at a discount, as a kind of “gift.” Money managers who get spun-off shares often dump them anyway, because the new company does not fit their mandate.</p><p><blockquote>投资中相当一致的一种策略是购买衍生产品。公司不喜欢烧伤股东，所以他们倾向于以折扣价进行分拆，作为一种 “礼物”。获得分拆股票的基金经理无论如何都会抛售它们，因为新公司不符合他们的职责。</blockquote></p><p> A good spinoff to consider right now is&nbsp;<b>Organon</b>,a mid-size pharma company. It was jettisoned from Merck&nbsp;in May. Organon just bounced 12% on Aug. 12 after it posted a solid quarter, but it still trades below the spinoff price of around $38. At this level, the stock looks attractively cheap, trading near five times 2021 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>现在可以考虑的一个好的衍生产品是<b>器官</b>一家中型制药公司。它于 5 月份被默克抛弃。 Organon 在公布了稳健的季度业绩后，于 8 月 12 日刚刚反弹 12%，但其交易价格仍低于 38 美元左右的分拆价格。在这个水平上，该股看起来很便宜，交易价格接近 2021 年市盈率的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Organon is cheap because it has issues. The chief one is the looming patent cliff on many of its products. Its Nexplanon birth control rolls off patent during 2025-2027, and that’s 11% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>当然，Organon很便宜，因为它有问题。最主要的一个是其许多产品迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其 Nexplanon 避孕药将于 2025-2027 年期间获得专利，占销售额的 11%。</blockquote></p><p> But this might not be such a threat. “There is a strong possibility that it can extend its patent to as late as 2030,” says Bruce Kaser, a value investor who is the editor of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. Nexplanon is a rod implanted under the skin, so women may be reluctant to go with a discount version. Another problem: Organon sells into China, where the government is cutting the prices of its products. But the worst of the damage may be over.</p><p><blockquote>但这可能不是这样的威胁。“卡伯特扭亏为盈信的编辑、价值投资者布鲁斯-卡瑟（Bruce Kaser）说：”该公司很有可能将专利延长至 2030 年。Nexplanon是一种植入皮下的棒，所以女性可能不愿意选择打折版本。另一个问题是：Organon销往中国，中国政府正在降低其产品价格。但最严重的损害可能已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> On the upside, Organon plans to regularly launch new products. And the company has $1.3 billion in annual free cash flow supporting a dividend yield of 3.3%.</p><p><blockquote>从好的方面来看，Organon计划定期推出新产品。该公司每年拥有 13 亿美元的自由现金流，支持 3.3% 的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Organon was recently suggested in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which has a good record. Its portfolio is up 135.8% in the past 12 months, compared with 36.5% for S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: Organon 最近在 Cabot 扭亏为盈的信中被建议，该信中有着良好的记录。过去 12 个月，其投资组合增长了 135.8%，而标普500的投资组合增长了 36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An education play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>教育剧</b></blockquote></p><p> If universities have allowed their participation in the culture wars to distract them from the core mission of basic education,<b>Chegg</b>&nbsp;is there to pick up the slack.</p><p><blockquote>如果大学允许他们参与文化战争来分散他们对基础教育核心使命的注意力，<b>切格</b>是来收拾残局的。</blockquote></p><p> This online education company helps college and high school students master their math and writing skills. The company also helps students save on expensive text books by offering rentals and e-textbook versions.</p><p><blockquote>这家在线教育公司帮助大学生和高中生掌握数学和写作技能。该公司还通过提供租赁和电子教科书版本来帮助学生节省昂贵的教科书费用。</blockquote></p><p> While online education has a black eye, Chegg is the exception. Last year student subscriptions jumped 67% to 6.6 million from a year earlier. Sales grew 30% in the quarter, and the company guided to 28% sales growth for this year, to $805 million to $815 million.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在线教育有黑眼圈，但切格是个例外。去年，学生订阅量比上年同期增长了 67%，达到 660 万。本季度销售额增长了 30%，该公司预计今年销售额增长 28%，达到 8.05 亿至 8.15 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Online learning had a bad reputation for overcharging, while success rates were minimal,” says money manager Kevin Landis. “But Chegg is different.”</p><p><blockquote>“资金经理凯文-兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）说：”在线学习因收费过高而名声不佳，而成功率却很低。“但切格不同。”</blockquote></p><p> He likes the robust growth in the U.S. and the big potential for international growth, particularly in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢美国的强劲增长以及国际增长的巨大潜力，尤其是在亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Landis’ Firsthand Technology Opportunities&nbsp;beats its Morningstar technology fund category by eight percentage points annualized over the past five years. Chegg is the second-largest position, at 8% of the portfolio. Chegg is the sixth-biggest holding of the Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund,which beats its mid-cap growth category by 5.7 percentage points annualized over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 在过去五年中，兰迪斯的第一手技术机会比晨星技术基金类别高出 8 个百分点。Chegg 是第二大头寸，占投资组合的 8%。Chegg 是 Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund 的第六大持股， 该基金在过去五年中年化比中型增长类别高出 5.7 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf you’re nervous about the stock market at record highs, consider these five companies that are loved by the smart money<blockquote>如果您对股市创下历史新高感到紧张，请考虑这五家深受精明资金喜爱的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 09:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others</p><p><blockquote>公司内部人士和专业投资者正在购买阿里巴巴-SW、切格和动视暴雪等公司的股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a750143fbfb2e7d732bb3dcc80114d61\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（摄影：Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>股市接近历史高点，但火车失事季节即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> Should you sell? After all, the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;and Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;often hit a rough patch in September and October.</p><p><blockquote>你应该卖吗？毕竟，标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯工业平均指数经常在 9 月和 10 月遭遇艰难时期。</blockquote></p><p> I say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.</p><p><blockquote>我说坚持住，确实可以考虑以下五家公司中的任何一家，因为它们都是 “聪明资金 ”的最爱。但首先，从大局来看，这里有三个坚持下去的理由。</blockquote></p><p> 1. There’s no guarantee that the seasonal weakness will repeat. Besides, the ability to time market turns is tough.</p><p><blockquote>1. 不能保证季节性疲软会重演。此外，把握市场转折的能力很难。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Fears about the delta variant of Covid are overblown. More people are getting vaccinated, and most of them won’t suffer severe symptoms if infected, say market strategists at T. Rowe Price.</p><p><blockquote>2. 对新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的担忧被夸大了。T. Rowe Price 的市场策略师说，越来越多的人接种了疫苗，他们中的大多数人如果被感染也不会出现严重症状。</blockquote></p><p> 3. There’s a lot of embedded demand in the economy and it will sustain growth, says Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>3. Leuthold 集团策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说，经济中有很多内在需求，它将持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> On the consumer front (most of the economy): Personal savings at a record high, durable goods purchases are near a 50-year low, and new household formation is at a record high. People buy stuff to fill new homes. Next, the economy has plenty of room to grow given the elevated jobless rate and big excess lending capacity at banks.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面（经济的大部分）：个人储蓄创历史新高，耐用品购买量接近50年来的最低点，新家庭形成量创历史新高。人们买东西来填满新家。其次，鉴于失业率上升和银行大量过剩贷款能力，经济有很大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Five smart money stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五只聪明的理财股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, I favor stocks that corporate insiders like. But not just&nbsp;<i>any</i>&nbsp;insiders. I go for stocks picked up by insiders with&nbsp;<i>great</i>&nbsp;records. Here are two, trading near where insiders just bought.</p><p><blockquote>在我的股票信中，我喜欢企业内部人士喜欢的股票。但不仅仅是<i>任何</i>内部人员。我喜欢内部人士买入的股票<i>伟大的</i>记录。这里有两个，在内部人士刚刚买入的地方附近交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Activision Blizzard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>动视暴雪</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the company behind the most popular and addictive online games — like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch and Candy Crush.<b>Activision Blizzard</b>&nbsp;makes money via game sales and subscriptions, by selling in-game content and ads. It has around 408 million regular users.</p><p><blockquote>这是最受欢迎和令人上瘾的网络游戏背后的公司——如《使命召唤的看涨期权》、《魔兽世界》、《暗黑破坏神》、《守望先锋》和《糖果粉碎》。<b>动视暴雪</b>通过游戏销售和订阅、销售游戏内内容和广告来赚钱。它拥有大约4.08亿普通用户。</blockquote></p><p> Besides winning over new fans, the company regularly launches new games and expands existing franchises — most recently with World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, in June. This addition marks “the start of what is intended to be a very significant 18-month period for content releases,” says the company. Sales grew 19% to $2.30 billion in the second quarter, and operating margins are rich at 42%.</p><p><blockquote>除了赢得新粉丝，该公司还定期推出新游戏并扩展现有的特许经营权——最近一次是在6月份推出的《魔兽世界：燃烧的十字军东征》。该公司表示，这一新增标志着 “为期 18 个月的内容发布期的开始”。第二季度销售额增长 19%，达到 23 亿美元，营业利润率高达 42%。</blockquote></p><p> One risk is that fallout from allegations of sexual misconduct and&nbsp;a related lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing will “make it difficult for the firm to attract and retain top talent in a very competitive industry,” says&nbsp;Morningstar analyst Neil Macker.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师尼尔-麦克（Neil Macker）说，一个风险是，性行为不端指控以及加州公平就业和住房部提起的相关诉讼将 “使该公司难以在竞争激烈的行业中吸引和留住顶尖人才”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insider to follow because he bought $4.3 million in March 2019 at $43 and the stock is now almost a double. Also, in my system of insider analysis, repeat buying on strength (as opposed to profit taking) is bullish. He also bought at $3.70 back in 2004.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>导演彼得·诺兰刚刚以每股 80-82.28 美元的价格购买了价值 200 万美元的股票。他是一个值得关注的内部人士，因为他在 2019 年 3 月以 43 美元的价格买入了 430 万美元，现在股价几乎翻了一番。此外，在我的内部分析系统中，重复强势买入（而不是获利了结）是看涨的。他还在2004年以3.70美元的价格买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>B. Riley Financial</b></p><p><blockquote><b>B. 莱利金融</b></blockquote></p><p> I introduced this name in my stock letter in March 2018 at $20 and reiterated it over a dozen times into strength after that. It now trades for over $65. Despite the hefty gains, I think&nbsp;<b>B. Riley Financia</b>&nbsp;is still a hold, and a buy for anyone who does not own.</p><p><blockquote>我在2018年3月以20美元的价格在我的股票信中介绍了这个名字，并在那之后重申了十几次。它现在的交易价格超过65美元。尽管收益巨大，但我认为<b>B. 莱利金融</b>仍然是持有，对于任何不拥有它的人来说都是买入。</blockquote></p><p> This is a Los Angeles-based investment bank that also manages money and does stock research. It specializes in small- and mid-cap stocks. B. Riley Financial is a good proxy for the overall market and the U.S. economy, given its banking and market-related businesses. This will be a plus, as economic growth holds up. It also continues to expand via acquisitions.&nbsp;Revenue grew 26% in the second quarter to $336.8 million, in part because of an acquisition. It pays a 2.9% dividend yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家总部位于洛杉矶的投资银行，也管理资金和进行股票研究。它专注于中小盘股。B. Riley Financial 凭借其银行和市场相关业务，是整体市场和美国经济的良好代表。随着经济增长保持稳定，这将是一个优势。它还通过收购继续扩张。第二季度收入增长 26%，达到 3.368 亿美元，部分原因是收购。它支付2.9%的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: CEO Bryant Riley purchased $3.4 million worth of stock at $63 to $68 in early June and August. He has a long record of buying over $22 million worth of stock in the $8 to $48 range since 2014, including $6.6 million in purchases near the start of this year at $46 to $48.71 (already up over 40%).</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 首席执行官布莱恩特·莱利 (Bryant Riley) 在 6 月初和 8 月初以 63 至 68 美元的价格购买了价值 340 万美元的股票。自2014年以来，他在8美元至48美元范围内购买了价值超过2200万美元的股票，包括今年年初以46美元至48.71美元的价格购买了660万美元（已经上涨了40%以上）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alibaba Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b></blockquote></p><p> If you like to buy quality companies whose stocks are beaten down by a host of problems, then Chinese consumer platform&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group</b>&nbsp;may be for you.</p><p><blockquote>如果你喜欢购买股票因一系列问题而遭受重创的优质公司，那么中国消费者平台<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团</b>可能是给你的。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares are down 40% since October because of rising U.S.-China tensions, some weakness in its core consumer business, the possible loss of tax breaks in China, and allegations of sexual assault inside the company.</p><p><blockquote>由于中美紧张局势加剧、核心消费业务疲软、中国可能失去税收减免以及公司内部性侵犯指控，该公司股价自 10 月份以来已下跌 40%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These are serious issues, but this is also a company with serious potential. Over one billion consumers use its marketplaces, including 891 million in China and 240 million abroad. Organic sales growth is 32%. It’s in the early stages of rolling out its AliCloud cloud computing business, which could be the next big growth driver.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是严重的问题，但这也是一家具有巨大潜力的公司。超过10亿消费者使用其市场，其中8.91亿在中国，2.4亿在国外。有机销售额增长32%。该公司正处于推出 AliCloud 云计算业务的早期阶段，这可能是下一个重要的增长动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: This company is singled out by Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital, which has posted 22% annualized growth over the past five years compared to 17.7% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>Bastiat Capital 的 Albert Meyer 特别指出了这家公司，该公司在过去五年中的年化增长率为 22%，而标普500的年化增长率为 17.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An attractive spinoff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有吸引力的衍生产品</b></blockquote></p><p> One tactic that works fairly consistently in investing is buying spinoffs. Companies don’t like to burn shareholders, so they tend to do spinoffs at a discount, as a kind of “gift.” Money managers who get spun-off shares often dump them anyway, because the new company does not fit their mandate.</p><p><blockquote>投资中相当一致的一种策略是购买衍生产品。公司不喜欢烧伤股东，所以他们倾向于以折扣价进行分拆，作为一种 “礼物”。获得分拆股票的基金经理无论如何都会抛售它们，因为新公司不符合他们的职责。</blockquote></p><p> A good spinoff to consider right now is&nbsp;<b>Organon</b>,a mid-size pharma company. It was jettisoned from Merck&nbsp;in May. Organon just bounced 12% on Aug. 12 after it posted a solid quarter, but it still trades below the spinoff price of around $38. At this level, the stock looks attractively cheap, trading near five times 2021 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>现在可以考虑的一个好的衍生产品是<b>器官</b>一家中型制药公司。它于 5 月份被默克抛弃。 Organon 在公布了稳健的季度业绩后，于 8 月 12 日刚刚反弹 12%，但其交易价格仍低于 38 美元左右的分拆价格。在这个水平上，该股看起来很便宜，交易价格接近 2021 年市盈率的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Organon is cheap because it has issues. The chief one is the looming patent cliff on many of its products. Its Nexplanon birth control rolls off patent during 2025-2027, and that’s 11% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>当然，Organon很便宜，因为它有问题。最主要的一个是其许多产品迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其 Nexplanon 避孕药将于 2025-2027 年期间获得专利，占销售额的 11%。</blockquote></p><p> But this might not be such a threat. “There is a strong possibility that it can extend its patent to as late as 2030,” says Bruce Kaser, a value investor who is the editor of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. Nexplanon is a rod implanted under the skin, so women may be reluctant to go with a discount version. Another problem: Organon sells into China, where the government is cutting the prices of its products. But the worst of the damage may be over.</p><p><blockquote>但这可能不是这样的威胁。“卡伯特扭亏为盈信的编辑、价值投资者布鲁斯-卡瑟（Bruce Kaser）说：”该公司很有可能将专利延长至 2030 年。Nexplanon是一种植入皮下的棒，所以女性可能不愿意选择打折版本。另一个问题是：Organon销往中国，中国政府正在降低其产品价格。但最严重的损害可能已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> On the upside, Organon plans to regularly launch new products. And the company has $1.3 billion in annual free cash flow supporting a dividend yield of 3.3%.</p><p><blockquote>从好的方面来看，Organon计划定期推出新产品。该公司每年拥有 13 亿美元的自由现金流，支持 3.3% 的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Organon was recently suggested in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which has a good record. Its portfolio is up 135.8% in the past 12 months, compared with 36.5% for S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: Organon 最近在 Cabot 扭亏为盈的信中被建议，该信中有着良好的记录。过去 12 个月，其投资组合增长了 135.8%，而标普500的投资组合增长了 36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An education play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>教育剧</b></blockquote></p><p> If universities have allowed their participation in the culture wars to distract them from the core mission of basic education,<b>Chegg</b>&nbsp;is there to pick up the slack.</p><p><blockquote>如果大学允许他们参与文化战争来分散他们对基础教育核心使命的注意力，<b>切格</b>是来收拾残局的。</blockquote></p><p> This online education company helps college and high school students master their math and writing skills. The company also helps students save on expensive text books by offering rentals and e-textbook versions.</p><p><blockquote>这家在线教育公司帮助大学生和高中生掌握数学和写作技能。该公司还通过提供租赁和电子教科书版本来帮助学生节省昂贵的教科书费用。</blockquote></p><p> While online education has a black eye, Chegg is the exception. Last year student subscriptions jumped 67% to 6.6 million from a year earlier. Sales grew 30% in the quarter, and the company guided to 28% sales growth for this year, to $805 million to $815 million.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在线教育有黑眼圈，但切格是个例外。去年，学生订阅量比上年同期增长了 67%，达到 660 万。本季度销售额增长了 30%，该公司预计今年销售额增长 28%，达到 8.05 亿至 8.15 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Online learning had a bad reputation for overcharging, while success rates were minimal,” says money manager Kevin Landis. “But Chegg is different.”</p><p><blockquote>“资金经理凯文-兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）说：”在线学习因收费过高而名声不佳，而成功率却很低。“但切格不同。”</blockquote></p><p> He likes the robust growth in the U.S. and the big potential for international growth, particularly in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢美国的强劲增长以及国际增长的巨大潜力，尤其是在亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The smart money signal</b>: Landis’ Firsthand Technology Opportunities&nbsp;beats its Morningstar technology fund category by eight percentage points annualized over the past five years. Chegg is the second-largest position, at 8% of the portfolio. Chegg is the sixth-biggest holding of the Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund,which beats its mid-cap growth category by 5.7 percentage points annualized over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>聪明理财信号</b>: 在过去五年中，兰迪斯的第一手技术机会比晨星技术基金类别高出 8 个百分点。Chegg 是第二大头寸，占投资组合的 8%。Chegg 是 Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund 的第六大持股， 该基金在过去五年中年化比中型增长类别高出 5.7 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-youre-nervous-about-the-stock-market-at-record-highs-consider-these-five-companies-that-are-loved-by-the-smart-money-11628865442?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHGG":"Chegg Inc","OGN":"Organon & Co","BABA":"阿里巴巴","RILY":"BRC Group Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-youre-nervous-about-the-stock-market-at-record-highs-consider-these-five-companies-that-are-loved-by-the-smart-money-11628865442?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173847412","content_text":"Company insiders and professional investors are buying shares of Alibaba, Chegg and Activision Blizzard, among others\n(Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)\nThe stock market is near all-time highs, but train-wreck season lies just around the corner.\nShould you sell? After all, the S&P 500,Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average often hit a rough patch in September and October.\nI say hold on, and indeed consider any of the five companies below because they are “smart money” favorites. But first, big picture, here are three reasons to stay the course.\n1. There’s no guarantee that the seasonal weakness will repeat. Besides, the ability to time market turns is tough.\n2. Fears about the delta variant of Covid are overblown. More people are getting vaccinated, and most of them won’t suffer severe symptoms if infected, say market strategists at T. Rowe Price.\n3. There’s a lot of embedded demand in the economy and it will sustain growth, says Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen.\nOn the consumer front (most of the economy): Personal savings at a record high, durable goods purchases are near a 50-year low, and new household formation is at a record high. People buy stuff to fill new homes. Next, the economy has plenty of room to grow given the elevated jobless rate and big excess lending capacity at banks.\nFive smart money stocks\nAt my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks, I favor stocks that corporate insiders like. But not just any insiders. I go for stocks picked up by insiders with great records. Here are two, trading near where insiders just bought.\nActivision Blizzard\nThis is the company behind the most popular and addictive online games — like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch and Candy Crush.Activision Blizzard makes money via game sales and subscriptions, by selling in-game content and ads. It has around 408 million regular users.\nBesides winning over new fans, the company regularly launches new games and expands existing franchises — most recently with World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, in June. This addition marks “the start of what is intended to be a very significant 18-month period for content releases,” says the company. Sales grew 19% to $2.30 billion in the second quarter, and operating margins are rich at 42%.\nOne risk is that fallout from allegations of sexual misconduct and a related lawsuit by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing will “make it difficult for the firm to attract and retain top talent in a very competitive industry,” says Morningstar analyst Neil Macker.\nThe smart money signal: Director Peter Nolan just bought $2 million worth at $80-$82.28 a share. He’s a good insider to follow because he bought $4.3 million in March 2019 at $43 and the stock is now almost a double. Also, in my system of insider analysis, repeat buying on strength (as opposed to profit taking) is bullish. He also bought at $3.70 back in 2004.\nB. Riley Financial\nI introduced this name in my stock letter in March 2018 at $20 and reiterated it over a dozen times into strength after that. It now trades for over $65. Despite the hefty gains, I think B. Riley Financia is still a hold, and a buy for anyone who does not own.\nThis is a Los Angeles-based investment bank that also manages money and does stock research. It specializes in small- and mid-cap stocks. B. Riley Financial is a good proxy for the overall market and the U.S. economy, given its banking and market-related businesses. This will be a plus, as economic growth holds up. It also continues to expand via acquisitions. Revenue grew 26% in the second quarter to $336.8 million, in part because of an acquisition. It pays a 2.9% dividend yield.\nThe smart money signal: CEO Bryant Riley purchased $3.4 million worth of stock at $63 to $68 in early June and August. He has a long record of buying over $22 million worth of stock in the $8 to $48 range since 2014, including $6.6 million in purchases near the start of this year at $46 to $48.71 (already up over 40%).\nAlibaba Group\nIf you like to buy quality companies whose stocks are beaten down by a host of problems, then Chinese consumer platform Alibaba Group may be for you.\nIts shares are down 40% since October because of rising U.S.-China tensions, some weakness in its core consumer business, the possible loss of tax breaks in China, and allegations of sexual assault inside the company.\nThese are serious issues, but this is also a company with serious potential. Over one billion consumers use its marketplaces, including 891 million in China and 240 million abroad. Organic sales growth is 32%. It’s in the early stages of rolling out its AliCloud cloud computing business, which could be the next big growth driver.\nThe smart money signal: This company is singled out by Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital, which has posted 22% annualized growth over the past five years compared to 17.7% for the S&P 500.\nAn attractive spinoff\nOne tactic that works fairly consistently in investing is buying spinoffs. Companies don’t like to burn shareholders, so they tend to do spinoffs at a discount, as a kind of “gift.” Money managers who get spun-off shares often dump them anyway, because the new company does not fit their mandate.\nA good spinoff to consider right now is Organon,a mid-size pharma company. It was jettisoned from Merck in May. Organon just bounced 12% on Aug. 12 after it posted a solid quarter, but it still trades below the spinoff price of around $38. At this level, the stock looks attractively cheap, trading near five times 2021 earnings.\nOf course, Organon is cheap because it has issues. The chief one is the looming patent cliff on many of its products. Its Nexplanon birth control rolls off patent during 2025-2027, and that’s 11% of sales.\nBut this might not be such a threat. “There is a strong possibility that it can extend its patent to as late as 2030,” says Bruce Kaser, a value investor who is the editor of the Cabot Turnaround Letter. Nexplanon is a rod implanted under the skin, so women may be reluctant to go with a discount version. Another problem: Organon sells into China, where the government is cutting the prices of its products. But the worst of the damage may be over.\nOn the upside, Organon plans to regularly launch new products. And the company has $1.3 billion in annual free cash flow supporting a dividend yield of 3.3%.\nThe smart money signal: Organon was recently suggested in the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which has a good record. Its portfolio is up 135.8% in the past 12 months, compared with 36.5% for S&P 500.\nAn education play\nIf universities have allowed their participation in the culture wars to distract them from the core mission of basic education,Chegg is there to pick up the slack.\nThis online education company helps college and high school students master their math and writing skills. The company also helps students save on expensive text books by offering rentals and e-textbook versions.\nWhile online education has a black eye, Chegg is the exception. Last year student subscriptions jumped 67% to 6.6 million from a year earlier. Sales grew 30% in the quarter, and the company guided to 28% sales growth for this year, to $805 million to $815 million.\n“Online learning had a bad reputation for overcharging, while success rates were minimal,” says money manager Kevin Landis. “But Chegg is different.”\nHe likes the robust growth in the U.S. and the big potential for international growth, particularly in Asia.\nThe smart money signal: Landis’ Firsthand Technology Opportunities beats its Morningstar technology fund category by eight percentage points annualized over the past five years. Chegg is the second-largest position, at 8% of the portfolio. Chegg is the sixth-biggest holding of the Alger Weatherbie Specialized Growth Fund,which beats its mid-cap growth category by 5.7 percentage points annualized over the past five years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"CHGG":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,"RILY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176710286,"gmtCreate":1626915537245,"gmtModify":1633769804451,"author":{"id":"3584845497808923","authorId":"3584845497808923","name":"Rozilla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a6d0bfd53f17c7b4cd754a4ca13cc6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584845497808923","authorIdStr":"3584845497808923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh [Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"Oh [Sad]&nbsp;","text":"Oh [Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176710286","repostId":"1182390348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182390348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915354,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182390348?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd 表示，美国股市在“非常艰难”的秋季可能暴跌 15%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182390348","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period fo","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments. “...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，到 10 月底，美国股市可能会下跌 15% 或更多，这对市场来说是一个充满挑战的时期。“...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd 表示，美国股市在“非常艰难”的秋季可能暴跌 15%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd 表示，美国股市在“非常艰难”的秋季可能暴跌 15%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments. “...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，到 10 月底，美国股市可能会下跌 15% 或更多，这对市场来说是一个充满挑战的时期。“...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182390348","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.\n“September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”\nA faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.\nMinerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”\nBitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.\n“I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”\n“When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.\nMinerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”\nLong term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.\nBetter Credit Opportunities Ahead\nIn credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.\n“We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.\nTreasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he 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