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ppangsy

ppangsy

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2021-06-16

I think the crash is coming soon

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2021-06-23

Not a good sign

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2021-06-22

Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)

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2021-07-17

They are not credible at all

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2021-06-09

Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!

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2021-06-21

Something is changing (pls like and comment)

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2021-06-16

Comment on my post pls!

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-16

I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?

2021-06-10

Bad debt will hurt everyone

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2021-06-08

Have a wonderful trading day everyone!

5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>

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are not credible at all","listText":"They are not credible at all","text":"They are not credible at all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179218916","repostId":"2152168563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144001845,"gmtCreate":1626250638187,"gmtModify":1631890663413,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The wave just isnt&nbsp;stopping","listText":"The wave just isnt&nbsp;stopping","text":"The wave just isnt stopping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144001845","repostId":"1158281742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158281742","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626249848,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158281742?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近 1%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158281742","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many a","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露，苹果公司已要求供应商今年生产多达 9000 万部下一代 iPhone，较 2020 年 iPhone 出货量大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的科技巨头近年来一直保持着稳定的水平，从设备发布到年底，初始运行的销量约为 7500 万台。2021 年的预测升级表明，该公司预计将推出首款 iPhone，因为 Covid-19 疫苗的推出将释放额外的需求。下一代 iPhone 将是苹果推出的第二款 5G 手机，这是促使用户升级的一个关键诱因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近 1%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近 1%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-14 16:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露，苹果公司已要求供应商今年生产多达 9000 万部下一代 iPhone，较 2020 年 iPhone 出货量大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的科技巨头近年来一直保持着稳定的水平，从设备发布到年底，初始运行的销量约为 7500 万台。2021 年的预测升级表明，该公司预计将推出首款 iPhone，因为 Covid-19 疫苗的推出将释放额外的需求。下一代 iPhone 将是苹果推出的第二款 5G 手机，这是促使用户升级的一个关键诱因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158281742","content_text":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153080415,"gmtCreate":1624985515537,"gmtModify":1631890663416,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Such a crazy stock","listText":"Such a crazy stock","text":"Such a crazy stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153080415","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123376390,"gmtCreate":1624410729010,"gmtModify":1631890663417,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not a good sign","listText":"Not a good sign","text":"Not a good sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123376390","repostId":"1139503540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120167381,"gmtCreate":1624315939843,"gmtModify":1631890663422,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","listText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","text":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120167381","repostId":"1179870522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167361581,"gmtCreate":1624247752943,"gmtModify":1631890663424,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","listText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","text":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167361581","repostId":"1177259531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163094762,"gmtCreate":1623852836756,"gmtModify":1631890663427,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think the crash is coming soon","listText":"I think the crash is coming soon","text":"I think the crash is coming soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163094762","repostId":"2143794134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163092424,"gmtCreate":1623852792468,"gmtModify":1631890663434,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","listText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","text":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163092424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160850686,"gmtCreate":1623782968445,"gmtModify":1631890663433,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment on my post pls!","listText":"Comment on my post pls!","text":"Comment on my post pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160850686","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184750545,"gmtCreate":1623726442087,"gmtModify":1631890663436,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is this a cue to short bank stocks?","listText":"Is this a cue to short bank stocks?","text":"Is this a cue to short bank stocks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184750545","repostId":"1102470114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185227389,"gmtCreate":1623655542941,"gmtModify":1634030582208,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","listText":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","text":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185227389","repostId":"1101734335","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186519238,"gmtCreate":1623509679324,"gmtModify":1634032250924,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I want to buy in some!","listText":"I want to buy in some!","text":"I want to buy in some!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186519238","repostId":"2142206100","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183684252,"gmtCreate":1623328745176,"gmtModify":1634034545385,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","listText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","text":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183684252","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释为什么无论今天的 CPI 显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>由于早些时候讨论的疯狂挤空，10年期国债收益率今天自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，这可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转负，引发全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家扬-哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）在周二发表的一份题为《为什么经济不会过热》的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步摆脱前所未有的大流行病活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会引发魏玛恶性通货膨胀，我们在 2009 年 3 月首次预测这是最终的结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在采纳这一观点从 10 年期名义利率的暴跌和最近盈亏平衡点突破上升趋势线的情况来看……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间创下了2008年9月雷曼兄弟9.0%的新高。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如 Hatzius 和策略师 Chris Hussey 所解释的那样，过去两份就业报告都令人失望，因为重返工作岗位的热潮 “由于慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，正在减缓重返工作岗位的速度。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流也可能会延长重新开放期，或许会减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能也只是时间问题。根据高盛的说法，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感逐渐消退。投资者或许更容易想象 “正常 ”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一个 “新常态 ”集体凝聚，这个 “新常态 ”看起来与大流行前的 “旧常态 ”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的担忧进一步减轻，以及大多数共和党控制的州在未来几周内以及其余州于 9 月 6 日到期，未来 3-6 个月内，劳动力供应应该会大幅增加。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的局面，<b>从没有劳动力供应到供应充足。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛下调的核心个人消费支出（不包括30%最极端的环比价格变化）仍然仅为1.56%，提醒大家，上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务的飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”。这一差距说明了异常值在最近的通胀回升中发挥了前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业是否会在未来几年大幅超出潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通货膨胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升到不理想的水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际 GDP 几乎恢复到大流行前的水平，但基于剩余近 800 万个就业岗位缺口和大流行驱动的第一季度生产率同比增长 4.1%。此外，我们认为环比 GDP 增长可能已经达到月度峰值，并将随着财政刺激的减弱而从现在开始呈下降趋势，起初是温和的，然后在 2021 年底和 2022 年变得更加急剧。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也对此发表了看法，经济学家丹·西尔弗 (Dan Silver) 在最近的一份报告中写道，在我们准备 CPI 数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和提高时薪的影响。在西尔弗的笔记中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资增长还会持续吗？”</b>我们之前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和 CPI 的放缓速度快于预期。”不过，另一方面，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，并且绝对宏观数据可能会再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天关键的 CPI 数据将显示什么？高盛预计 5 月份核心 CPI 将上涨 0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长十分之六至 3.55%，高于 3.0%，但这在很大程度上受到去年基数效应崩溃的影响。高盛每月核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格的强劲势头。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度读数将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心的是PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，即使通胀爆发是暂时的，“<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在 2% 左右的货币体系中，市场对 3.5% 以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释为什么无论今天的 CPI 显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释为什么无论今天的 CPI 显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>由于早些时候讨论的疯狂挤空，10年期国债收益率今天自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，这可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转负，引发全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家扬-哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）在周二发表的一份题为《为什么经济不会过热》的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步摆脱前所未有的大流行病活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会引发魏玛恶性通货膨胀，我们在 2009 年 3 月首次预测这是最终的结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在采纳这一观点从 10 年期名义利率的暴跌和最近盈亏平衡点突破上升趋势线的情况来看……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间创下了2008年9月雷曼兄弟9.0%的新高。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如 Hatzius 和策略师 Chris Hussey 所解释的那样，过去两份就业报告都令人失望，因为重返工作岗位的热潮 “由于慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，正在减缓重返工作岗位的速度。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流也可能会延长重新开放期，或许会减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能也只是时间问题。根据高盛的说法，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感逐渐消退。投资者或许更容易想象 “正常 ”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一个 “新常态 ”集体凝聚，这个 “新常态 ”看起来与大流行前的 “旧常态 ”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的担忧进一步减轻，以及大多数共和党控制的州在未来几周内以及其余州于 9 月 6 日到期，未来 3-6 个月内，劳动力供应应该会大幅增加。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的局面，<b>从没有劳动力供应到供应充足。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛下调的核心个人消费支出（不包括30%最极端的环比价格变化）仍然仅为1.56%，提醒大家，上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务的飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”。这一差距说明了异常值在最近的通胀回升中发挥了前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业是否会在未来几年大幅超出潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通货膨胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升到不理想的水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际 GDP 几乎恢复到大流行前的水平，但基于剩余近 800 万个就业岗位缺口和大流行驱动的第一季度生产率同比增长 4.1%。此外，我们认为环比 GDP 增长可能已经达到月度峰值，并将随着财政刺激的减弱而从现在开始呈下降趋势，起初是温和的，然后在 2021 年底和 2022 年变得更加急剧。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也对此发表了看法，经济学家丹·西尔弗 (Dan Silver) 在最近的一份报告中写道，在我们准备 CPI 数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和提高时薪的影响。在西尔弗的笔记中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资增长还会持续吗？”</b>我们之前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和 CPI 的放缓速度快于预期。”不过，另一方面，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，并且绝对宏观数据可能会再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天关键的 CPI 数据将显示什么？高盛预计 5 月份核心 CPI 将上涨 0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长十分之六至 3.55%，高于 3.0%，但这在很大程度上受到去年基数效应崩溃的影响。高盛每月核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格的强劲势头。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度读数将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心的是PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，即使通胀爆发是暂时的，“<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在 2% 左右的货币体系中，市场对 3.5% 以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183946915,"gmtCreate":1623303412437,"gmtModify":1634034766345,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazing! Are you all vested too?","listText":"Amazing! Are you all vested too?","text":"Amazing! Are you all vested too?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183946915","repostId":"2142241372","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183948547,"gmtCreate":1623303370789,"gmtModify":1634034766806,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","listText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","text":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183948547","repostId":"2142413772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180241107,"gmtCreate":1623208623209,"gmtModify":1634035779384,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","listText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","text":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180241107","repostId":"2142299270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117266670,"gmtCreate":1623144312990,"gmtModify":1634036484563,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","listText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","text":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117266670","repostId":"1187083602","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187083602","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623142795,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187083602?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187083602","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Wall Street expectsThor Industries, Inc.THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Wall Street expects<b>Thor Industries, Inc.</b>THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Marvell Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;MRVL&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting<b>Navistar International Corp</b>&nbsp;NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc</b>&nbsp;SFIX&nbsp;reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect&nbsp;<b>Casey's General Stores Inc</b>&nbsp;CASY&nbsp;to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>托尔工业公司。</b>THO 0.05% 公布季度收益为每股 2.28 美元，开盘前营收为 30.1 亿美元。Thor 股价在盘后交易中上涨 1.8%，至 119.20 美元。</li><li><b>马维尔科技公司</b>MRVL 公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。Marvell 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 4.3%，至 50.34 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>纳威司达国际公司</b>资产净值 0.02%，最新季度营收为 23 亿美元，每股收益 0.72 美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。纳威司达股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.1%，至 44.39 美元。</li><li><b>缝合修复公司</b>SFIX 公布了乐观的第三季度业绩，并发布了 2021 财年强劲的销售指引。Stitch Fix 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 16.2%，至 67.30 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>凯西综合商店公司</b>CASY 将在收盘后公布每股 0.88 美元的季度收益，营收为 22.2 亿美元。凯西的股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.2%，至 215.61 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Wall Street expects<b>Thor Industries, Inc.</b>THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Marvell Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;MRVL&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting<b>Navistar International Corp</b>&nbsp;NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc</b>&nbsp;SFIX&nbsp;reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect&nbsp;<b>Casey's General Stores Inc</b>&nbsp;CASY&nbsp;to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>托尔工业公司。</b>THO 0.05% 公布季度收益为每股 2.28 美元，开盘前营收为 30.1 亿美元。Thor 股价在盘后交易中上涨 1.8%，至 119.20 美元。</li><li><b>马维尔科技公司</b>MRVL 公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。Marvell 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 4.3%，至 50.34 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>纳威司达国际公司</b>资产净值 0.02%，最新季度营收为 23 亿美元，每股收益 0.72 美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。纳威司达股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.1%，至 44.39 美元。</li><li><b>缝合修复公司</b>SFIX 公布了乐观的第三季度业绩，并发布了 2021 财年强劲的销售指引。Stitch Fix 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 16.2%，至 67.30 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>凯西综合商店公司</b>CASY 将在收盘后公布每股 0.88 美元的季度收益，营收为 22.2 亿美元。凯西的股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.2%，至 215.61 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","THO":"索尔工业","CASY":"Caseys General Stores","MRVL":"迈威尔科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187083602","content_text":"Wall Street expectsThor Industries, Inc.THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.\nMarvell Technology Inc MRVL reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expectingNavistar International Corp NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.\nStitch Fix Inc SFIX reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect Casey's General Stores Inc CASY to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRVL":0.9,"THO":0.9,"CASY":0.9,"NAV":0.9,"SFIX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114596308,"gmtCreate":1623078489904,"gmtModify":1634037175936,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","listText":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","text":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114596308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115612605,"gmtCreate":1622985110207,"gmtModify":1634096408275,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","listText":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","text":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115612605","repostId":"1198437149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115612933,"gmtCreate":1622985077622,"gmtModify":1634096408514,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;I support this.","listText":"&nbsp;I support this.","text":"I support this.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115612933","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在 Seeking Alpha 上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group 的股价已下跌约 30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整后 EBITDA 指引疲软（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的远期市盈率仍接近 100 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock Editories，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，ZG已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向 iHome 业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与 ZG 的抵押贷款部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门融合得很好。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG 似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一句话——很可怜。此外，第二季度指引疲软，该公司计划今年额外招聘 2,000 名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理性</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com的人，看看当前的“Zestimate”对我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家来说是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量中排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与 Realtor.com 争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow 集团在房地产网站市场（至少根据独特访问量指标）的份额增加了 3 倍多：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一个页面然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的比较。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的类似网站评级中肯定还有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们可以说rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大和市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的……观点和活动需要转化为利润，这就是 Zillow 集团与其相当高的估值相比陷入困境的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow 于 5 月 4 日发布了第一季度每股收益报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP 每股净利润为 0.20 美元，超出预期 0.13 美元。收入为 12.2 亿美元，比上年增长 1.2 亿美元，同比增长 8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序的流量强劲，平均每月用户数量为 2.21 亿（同比增长 15%），第一季度访问量为 25 亿次（同比增长 19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>Q1 最有趣的细分市场是 iHome（或 ZG 评级“Zillow 提供的”），因为它约占收入的 57%，并且是 Zillow 指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）仅为平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome 业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向 iHome 几乎削弱了公司的主要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着 Zillow 的广告收入将面临更大的压力，而广告收入通常来自其 iHome 部门现在正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率仅为 4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前进</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导总额调整后 EBITDA（1.28 亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>会大幅下降</b>第一季度交付的调整后 EBITDA 总额为 1.81 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在 SEC 10-Q 文件中找到）为 259,346,000 股（同比增长高达 23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股份数量将继续增长至约 2.655 亿股（基于上述指引）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后 EBITDA 下降，完全稀释股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近进行了调整（请注意，自我 3 月份发表 Seeking Alpha 文章以来，该股已下跌约 30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7x。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>就 Zillow 的增长前景（或非增长）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较……）考虑到第二季度指引疲软。此外，我不清楚什么催化剂将是改善该公司未来极低的利润率。尤其是考虑到<b>Zillow 计划今年增聘 2,000 名员工</b>，使其员工人数增加了约40%。在我看来，当谈到提高利润率时，员工人数的增长将是一个重大的阻力。也就是说，Zillow 在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向 iHome 也意味着 ZG 现在面临着更多的宏观风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买 Zillow Group 的风险是一个近乎完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于 ZG 的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价是完美的，而且自那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了 30%，现在我将简单地给 ZG 一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>商品消息是，Zillow 的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成 5.51 亿美元的股票发行后，该季度末拥有 47 亿美元现金（高于 2020 年底的 39 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为 22.59 亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末2.655亿股稀释后的流通股，该公司的净现金估计为每股9.19美元。Zillow 可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接接触房地产市场而导致的较高风险状况。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可以瞬息万变，并可能抓住ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结与结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Zillow 的第一季度报告无疑在连续基础上有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其已证明的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎完全不正常。尽管房地产市场火爆且高度升值，但第二季度调整后 EBITDA 环比下降……嗯，我就是看不懂现在的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对它感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以 ZG 的五年价格图表作为结尾，并指出我的 50 美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来发布的每股收益报告并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前的110美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在 Seeking Alpha 上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group 的股价已下跌约 30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整后 EBITDA 指引疲软（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的远期市盈率仍接近 100 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock Editories，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，ZG已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向 iHome 业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与 ZG 的抵押贷款部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门融合得很好。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG 似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一句话——很可怜。此外，第二季度指引疲软，该公司计划今年额外招聘 2,000 名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理性</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com的人，看看当前的“Zestimate”对我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家来说是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量中排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与 Realtor.com 争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow 集团在房地产网站市场（至少根据独特访问量指标）的份额增加了 3 倍多：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一个页面然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的比较。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的类似网站评级中肯定还有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们可以说rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大和市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的……观点和活动需要转化为利润，这就是 Zillow 集团与其相当高的估值相比陷入困境的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow 于 5 月 4 日发布了第一季度每股收益报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP 每股净利润为 0.20 美元，超出预期 0.13 美元。收入为 12.2 亿美元，比上年增长 1.2 亿美元，同比增长 8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序的流量强劲，平均每月用户数量为 2.21 亿（同比增长 15%），第一季度访问量为 25 亿次（同比增长 19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>Q1 最有趣的细分市场是 iHome（或 ZG 评级“Zillow 提供的”），因为它约占收入的 57%，并且是 Zillow 指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）仅为平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome 业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向 iHome 几乎削弱了公司的主要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着 Zillow 的广告收入将面临更大的压力，而广告收入通常来自其 iHome 部门现在正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率仅为 4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前进</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导总额调整后 EBITDA（1.28 亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>会大幅下降</b>第一季度交付的调整后 EBITDA 总额为 1.81 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在 SEC 10-Q 文件中找到）为 259,346,000 股（同比增长高达 23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股份数量将继续增长至约 2.655 亿股（基于上述指引）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后 EBITDA 下降，完全稀释股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近进行了调整（请注意，自我 3 月份发表 Seeking Alpha 文章以来，该股已下跌约 30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7x。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>就 Zillow 的增长前景（或非增长）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较……）考虑到第二季度指引疲软。此外，我不清楚什么催化剂将是改善该公司未来极低的利润率。尤其是考虑到<b>Zillow 计划今年增聘 2,000 名员工</b>，使其员工人数增加了约40%。在我看来，当谈到提高利润率时，员工人数的增长将是一个重大的阻力。也就是说，Zillow 在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向 iHome 也意味着 ZG 现在面临着更多的宏观风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买 Zillow Group 的风险是一个近乎完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于 ZG 的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价是完美的，而且自那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了 30%，现在我将简单地给 ZG 一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>商品消息是，Zillow 的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成 5.51 亿美元的股票发行后，该季度末拥有 47 亿美元现金（高于 2020 年底的 39 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为 22.59 亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末2.655亿股稀释后的流通股，该公司的净现金估计为每股9.19美元。Zillow 可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接接触房地产市场而导致的较高风险状况。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可以瞬息万变，并可能抓住ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结与结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Zillow 的第一季度报告无疑在连续基础上有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其已证明的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎完全不正常。尽管房地产市场火爆且高度升值，但第二季度调整后 EBITDA 环比下降……嗯，我就是看不懂现在的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对它感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以 ZG 的五年价格图表作为结尾，并指出我的 50 美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来发布的每股收益报告并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前的110美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":163094762,"gmtCreate":1623852836756,"gmtModify":1631890663427,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think the crash is coming soon","listText":"I think the crash is coming soon","text":"I think the crash is coming soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163094762","repostId":"2143794134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123376390,"gmtCreate":1624410729010,"gmtModify":1631890663417,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not a good sign","listText":"Not a good sign","text":"Not a good sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123376390","repostId":"1139503540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120167381,"gmtCreate":1624315939843,"gmtModify":1631890663422,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","listText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","text":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120167381","repostId":"1179870522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179218916,"gmtCreate":1626532413335,"gmtModify":1631890663415,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"They are not credible at all","listText":"They are not credible at all","text":"They are not credible at all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179218916","repostId":"2152168563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180241107,"gmtCreate":1623208623209,"gmtModify":1634035779384,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","listText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","text":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180241107","repostId":"2142299270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167361581,"gmtCreate":1624247752943,"gmtModify":1631890663424,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","listText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","text":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167361581","repostId":"1177259531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160850686,"gmtCreate":1623782968445,"gmtModify":1631890663433,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment on my post pls!","listText":"Comment on my post pls!","text":"Comment on my post pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160850686","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163092424,"gmtCreate":1623852792468,"gmtModify":1631890663434,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","listText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","text":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163092424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183948547,"gmtCreate":1623303370789,"gmtModify":1634034766806,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","listText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","text":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183948547","repostId":"2142413772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117266670,"gmtCreate":1623144312990,"gmtModify":1634036484563,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","listText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","text":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117266670","repostId":"1187083602","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187083602","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623142795,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187083602?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187083602","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Wall Street expectsThor Industries, Inc.THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Wall Street expects<b>Thor Industries, Inc.</b>THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Marvell Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;MRVL&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting<b>Navistar International Corp</b>&nbsp;NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc</b>&nbsp;SFIX&nbsp;reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect&nbsp;<b>Casey's General Stores Inc</b>&nbsp;CASY&nbsp;to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>托尔工业公司。</b>THO 0.05% 公布季度收益为每股 2.28 美元，开盘前营收为 30.1 亿美元。Thor 股价在盘后交易中上涨 1.8%，至 119.20 美元。</li><li><b>马维尔科技公司</b>MRVL 公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。Marvell 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 4.3%，至 50.34 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>纳威司达国际公司</b>资产净值 0.02%，最新季度营收为 23 亿美元，每股收益 0.72 美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。纳威司达股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.1%，至 44.39 美元。</li><li><b>缝合修复公司</b>SFIX 公布了乐观的第三季度业绩，并发布了 2021 财年强劲的销售指引。Stitch Fix 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 16.2%，至 67.30 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>凯西综合商店公司</b>CASY 将在收盘后公布每股 0.88 美元的季度收益，营收为 22.2 亿美元。凯西的股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.2%，至 215.61 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 6 月 8 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Wall Street expects<b>Thor Industries, Inc.</b>THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Marvell Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;MRVL&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting<b>Navistar International Corp</b>&nbsp;NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc</b>&nbsp;SFIX&nbsp;reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect&nbsp;<b>Casey's General Stores Inc</b>&nbsp;CASY&nbsp;to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>托尔工业公司。</b>THO 0.05% 公布季度收益为每股 2.28 美元，开盘前营收为 30.1 亿美元。Thor 股价在盘后交易中上涨 1.8%，至 119.20 美元。</li><li><b>马维尔科技公司</b>MRVL 公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。Marvell 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 4.3%，至 50.34 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>纳威司达国际公司</b>资产净值 0.02%，最新季度营收为 23 亿美元，每股收益 0.72 美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。纳威司达股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.1%，至 44.39 美元。</li><li><b>缝合修复公司</b>SFIX 公布了乐观的第三季度业绩，并发布了 2021 财年强劲的销售指引。Stitch Fix 股价在盘后交易时段上涨 16.2%，至 67.30 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>凯西综合商店公司</b>CASY 将在收盘后公布每股 0.88 美元的季度收益，营收为 22.2 亿美元。凯西的股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.2%，至 215.61 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","THO":"索尔工业","CASY":"Caseys General Stores","MRVL":"迈威尔科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187083602","content_text":"Wall Street expectsThor Industries, Inc.THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.\nMarvell Technology Inc MRVL reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expectingNavistar International Corp NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.\nStitch Fix Inc SFIX reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect Casey's General Stores Inc CASY to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRVL":0.9,"THO":0.9,"CASY":0.9,"NAV":0.9,"SFIX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}