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2021-09-10

Ok

Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值存在巨大上涨潜力</blockquote>

2021-08-11

Like

The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>

2021-08-27

Oh

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2021-08-14

Good

Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在 10 月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Like please

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2021-11-27

Woi

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2021-11-18

Woi

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2021-06-18

Like and comment? 🙏🏼

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-10-22

Apple M1 FTW!

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2021-08-19

Ok

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11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><div> Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday. That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $...</p><p><blockquote><div>周五，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有的 8.87 亿股苹果股票价值飙升至 1,590 亿美元。这使得这些股份相当于伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，以及近25%的美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday. That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $...</p><p><blockquote><div>周五，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有的 8.87 亿股苹果股票价值飙升至 1,590 亿美元。这使得这些股份相当于伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，以及近25%的美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034674,"gmtCreate":1639455519141,"gmtModify":1639455519330,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034674","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604194059,"gmtCreate":1639357279852,"gmtModify":1639357279852,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604194059","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要活动将是美联储利率制定委员会 2021 年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但将包括周二的金宝汤；Lenner、埃森哲、联邦快递、Rivian Automotive 和 Adobe 周四；周五的达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的 11 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计总体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都将大致与 10 月份的生产者通胀率持平。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他数据还包括周二公布的全国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Businesses）的情绪指数、周三公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）的 11 月份零售销售支出以及周四公布的 11 月份房屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/13星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill 和 PHX Minerals 在评级举办盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Campbell Soup、Barnes Group 和 Avaya Holdings 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了11月份的生产者价格指数。普遍预计环比上涨 0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心 PPI 将上涨 0.4%。相比之下，10 月份分别增长了 0.6% 和 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5000名小企业主。看涨期权的预期读数为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/15星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束为期两天的会议，政策制定者将讨论加快逐步减少每月证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>11月份进出口价格数据。预计出口价格将环比上涨 0.5%，而进口价格将上涨 0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 1.5% 和 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商发布了12月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11 月份零售支出报告。经季节性调整后，预计零售额环比增长 0.7%，而 10 月份为 1.7%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.8%，而上一时期为 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、埃森哲、联邦快递、捷普、Adobe、Rivian汽车和诺信等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。经季节性调整后的新屋开工率预计为156.3万套，而10月份为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开始计算。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继 10 月份上涨 1.6% 之后，经济学家预计上涨 0.6%。产能利用率预计为 76.8%，与 10 月份的 76.4% 大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/17星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants 和 Quanex Building Products 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要活动将是美联储利率制定委员会 2021 年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但将包括周二的金宝汤；Lenner、埃森哲、联邦快递、Rivian Automotive 和 Adobe 周四；周五的达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的 11 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计总体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都将大致与 10 月份的生产者通胀率持平。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他数据还包括周二公布的全国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Businesses）的情绪指数、周三公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）的 11 月份零售销售支出以及周四公布的 11 月份房屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/13星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill 和 PHX Minerals 在评级举办盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Campbell Soup、Barnes Group 和 Avaya Holdings 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了11月份的生产者价格指数。普遍预计环比上涨 0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心 PPI 将上涨 0.4%。相比之下，10 月份分别增长了 0.6% 和 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5000名小企业主。看涨期权的预期读数为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/15星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束为期两天的会议，政策制定者将讨论加快逐步减少每月证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>11月份进出口价格数据。预计出口价格将环比上涨 0.5%，而进口价格将上涨 0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 1.5% 和 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商发布了12月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11 月份零售支出报告。经季节性调整后，预计零售额环比增长 0.7%，而 10 月份为 1.7%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.8%，而上一时期为 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、埃森哲、联邦快递、捷普、Adobe、Rivian汽车和诺信等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。经季节性调整后的新屋开工率预计为156.3万套，而10月份为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开始计算。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继 10 月份上涨 1.6% 之后，经济学家预计上涨 0.6%。产能利用率预计为 76.8%，与 10 月份的 76.4% 大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/17星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants 和 Quanex Building Products 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PHX":"潘汉德尔油气",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ADBE":"Adobe","ACN":"埃森哲","DRI":"达登饭店","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","HEI":"海科航空","CPB":"金宝汤","FDX":"联邦快递",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","JILL":"J.Jill Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DRI":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"PHX":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"LEN":0.9,"AVYA":0.9,"JILL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"HEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605539318,"gmtCreate":1639188109254,"gmtModify":1639188126580,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605539318","repostId":"2190275356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606226847,"gmtCreate":1638887629502,"gmtModify":1638887629673,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606226847","repostId":"1197257596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608158835,"gmtCreate":1638669800860,"gmtModify":1638669820131,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608158835","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601673952,"gmtCreate":1638528058881,"gmtModify":1638528059026,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601673952","repostId":"2188540330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188540330","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1638524158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2188540330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 17:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For December 3, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 12 月 3 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188540330","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  Big Lots, Inc.  (NYSE: BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Big Lots, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li>  <li><b>DiDi Global Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:DIDI) said that its board of directors had authorized the company to initiate procedures to delist the company’s shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The company, however, announced plans to pursue a listing of its class A ordinary shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. DiDi Global shares jumped 9.5% to $8.54 in premarket trading&nbsp;Friday.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Hibbett, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:HIBB) to have earned $1.57 per share on revenue of $360.63 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Hibbett shares rose 0.3% to $72.35 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Tesla Inc</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares worth around $1.01 billion in order to fulfill his tax obligations, as per filings made with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission Thursday. Musk also exercised options to purchase 2.1 million shares of the automaker at $6.24, as per one of the filings. In late November, the company’s CEO had sold $1 billion worth of Tesla shares. Tesla shares rose 0.3% to $1,088 in premarket tradingFriday.</li>  <li><b>Ulta Beauty, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter and raised its FY21 forecast. Ulta Beauty shares climbed 5.2% to $403.50 in the after-hours trading Thursday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>大批量公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BIG）公布季度亏损，每股亏损 0.16 美元，开盘前营收为 13.2 亿美元。周四盘后交易中，Big Lots 股价下跌 5%，至 41.45 美元。</li><li><b>滴滴全球公司。</b>(纽约证券交易所股票代码：滴滴）表示，其董事会已授权公司启动程序，将公司股票从纽约证券交易所退市。然而，该公司宣布计划寻求将其A类普通股在香港联交所主板上市。滴滴全球股价在周五盘前交易中上涨 9.5%，至 8.54 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>希贝特公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：HIBB）最新季度每股收益 1.57 美元，营收为 3.6063 亿美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四盘后交易中，Hibbett 股价上涨 0.3%，至 72.35 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）根据周四向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，埃隆·马斯克又出售了 934,091 股股票，价值约 10.1 亿美元，以履行纳税义务。根据其中一份文件，马斯克还行使了以 6.24 美元购买该汽车制造商 210 万股股票的期权。11 月底，该公司首席执行官出售了价值 10 亿美元的特斯拉股票。周五盘前交易中，特斯拉股价上涨 0.3%，至 1,088 美元。</li><li><b>乌尔塔美容公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ULTA）公布的第三季度业绩好于预期，并上调了 2021 财年预测。Ulta Beauty 股价在周四盘后交易中上涨 5.2%，至 403.50 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For December 3, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 12 月 3 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For December 3, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 12 月 3 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 17:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Big Lots, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li>  <li><b>DiDi Global Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:DIDI) said that its board of directors had authorized the company to initiate procedures to delist the company’s shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The company, however, announced plans to pursue a listing of its class A ordinary shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. DiDi Global shares jumped 9.5% to $8.54 in premarket trading&nbsp;Friday.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Hibbett, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:HIBB) to have earned $1.57 per share on revenue of $360.63 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Hibbett shares rose 0.3% to $72.35 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Tesla Inc</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares worth around $1.01 billion in order to fulfill his tax obligations, as per filings made with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission Thursday. Musk also exercised options to purchase 2.1 million shares of the automaker at $6.24, as per one of the filings. In late November, the company’s CEO had sold $1 billion worth of Tesla shares. Tesla shares rose 0.3% to $1,088 in premarket tradingFriday.</li>  <li><b>Ulta Beauty, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter and raised its FY21 forecast. Ulta Beauty shares climbed 5.2% to $403.50 in the after-hours trading Thursday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>大批量公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BIG）公布季度亏损，每股亏损 0.16 美元，开盘前营收为 13.2 亿美元。周四盘后交易中，Big Lots 股价下跌 5%，至 41.45 美元。</li><li><b>滴滴全球公司。</b>(纽约证券交易所股票代码：滴滴）表示，其董事会已授权公司启动程序，将公司股票从纽约证券交易所退市。然而，该公司宣布计划寻求将其A类普通股在香港联交所主板上市。滴滴全球股价在周五盘前交易中上涨 9.5%，至 8.54 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>希贝特公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：HIBB）最新季度每股收益 1.57 美元，营收为 3.6063 亿美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四盘后交易中，Hibbett 股价上涨 0.3%，至 72.35 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）根据周四向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，埃隆·马斯克又出售了 934,091 股股票，价值约 10.1 亿美元，以履行纳税义务。根据其中一份文件，马斯克还行使了以 6.24 美元购买该汽车制造商 210 万股股票的期权。11 月底，该公司首席执行官出售了价值 10 亿美元的特斯拉股票。周五盘前交易中，特斯拉股价上涨 0.3%，至 1,088 美元。</li><li><b>乌尔塔美容公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ULTA）公布的第三季度业绩好于预期，并上调了 2021 财年预测。Ulta Beauty 股价在周四盘后交易中上涨 5.2%，至 403.50 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HIBB":"希贝特体育","BK4200":"专卖店","ULTA":"Ulta美容","BK4022":"陆运","BK4539":"次新股","BK4526":"热门中概股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","CEO":"中海油","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188540330","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE:BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading Thursday.\nDiDi Global Inc. (NYSE:DIDI) said that its board of directors had authorized the company to initiate procedures to delist the company’s shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The company, however, announced plans to pursue a listing of its class A ordinary shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. DiDi Global shares jumped 9.5% to $8.54 in premarket trading Friday.\nAnalysts are expecting Hibbett, Inc. (NASDAQ:HIBB) to have earned $1.57 per share on revenue of $360.63 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Hibbett shares rose 0.3% to $72.35 in after-hours trading Thursday.\n\n\nTesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares worth around $1.01 billion in order to fulfill his tax obligations, as per filings made with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission Thursday. Musk also exercised options to purchase 2.1 million shares of the automaker at $6.24, as per one of the filings. In late November, the company’s CEO had sold $1 billion worth of Tesla shares. Tesla shares rose 0.3% to $1,088 in premarket tradingFriday.\nUlta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter and raised its FY21 forecast. Ulta Beauty shares climbed 5.2% to $403.50 in the after-hours trading Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9,"CEO":0.9,"HIBB":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ULTA":0.9,"BIG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600187388,"gmtCreate":1638092810909,"gmtModify":1638092811006,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600187388","repostId":"2186432895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877759198,"gmtCreate":1637988560258,"gmtModify":1637988560392,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877759198","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875504855,"gmtCreate":1637665268036,"gmtModify":1637665268167,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875504855","repostId":"1114486159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872188675,"gmtCreate":1637458590595,"gmtModify":1637458590688,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872188675","repostId":"1198923174","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872057504,"gmtCreate":1637379899625,"gmtModify":1637379900085,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872057504","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878413636,"gmtCreate":1637219414306,"gmtModify":1637219414440,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878413636","repostId":"2184510828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873252003,"gmtCreate":1636951593895,"gmtModify":1636951594026,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873252003","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873120609,"gmtCreate":1636889642964,"gmtModify":1636889643106,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873120609","repostId":"1130613433","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130613433","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636854571,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130613433?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 09:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week<blockquote>下周值得关注的 7 份收益报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130613433","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant\nSource: Shutterstock\nReta","content":"<p><div> A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant Source: Shutterstock Retailers and big box chains take center stage next week as the earnings train rolls on. And these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着股价保持强劲，大量零售商公布财报 资料来源：Shutterstock 随着财报列车的继续，下周零售商和大型连锁店将成为焦点。还有这些……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week<blockquote>下周值得关注的 7 份收益报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week<blockquote>下周值得关注的 7 份收益报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant Source: Shutterstock Retailers and big box chains take center stage next week as the earnings train rolls on. And these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着股价保持强劲，大量零售商公布财报 资料来源：Shutterstock 随着财报列车的继续，下周零售商和大型连锁店将成为焦点。还有这些……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"M":"梅西百货","TGT":"塔吉特","HD":"家得宝","WMT":"沃尔玛","LOW":"劳氏","LZB":"La-Z-Boy家具"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130613433","content_text":"A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant\nSource: Shutterstock\nRetailers and big box chains take center stage next week as the earnings train rolls on. And these earnings come as we enter the pivotal holiday sales season, which can make or break retailers large and small.\nAnalysts on Wall Street will be carefully parsing next week’s results to gain insights into how the economic reopening is holding up, and, in particular, how consumer spending performed heading into the fourth and final quarter of the year.\nIt has been a good run for stocks of retailers in recent weeks, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF(NYSEARCA:XRT) up 15% over the past month. Sentiment regarding retailers has turned bullish as we approach the lucrative holiday sales period and the twin events of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.\nStrong earnings reports from key retail companies are likely to keep stocks across the sector buoyant as we near year-end.Here are seven retail stocks reporting earnings the week of Nov. 15.\n\nWalmart(NYSE:WMT)\nHome Depot(NYSE:HD)\nLa-Z-Boy(NYSE:LZB)\nLowe’s(NYSE:LOW)\nTarget(NYSE:TGT)\nMacy’s(NYSE:M)\nFoot Locker(NYSE:FL)\n\nWalmart (WMT)\nFirst out of the gate next week is Walmart, the world’s biggest retailer with more than 10,000 stores, 2.3 million employees and annual revenues of nearly $550 billion.\nThe retail colossus survived the pandemic largely by ramping up its online sales strategy, and its brick-and-mortar stores have been recovering this year as the economy reopens.\nHowever, despite its efforts and success, Walmart’s stock has underperformed, rising only 1% year-to-date at $148.50 a share. In the past 52 weeks, WMT stock has gained a slight 0.35%. The tepid growth has frustrated Walmart shareholders who have had to watch while rival retail stocks have risen more than 50% this year.\nA strong third-quarter report from Walmart could give the share price a much needed boost.Wall Street is looking for the company to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40 on revenues of $135.52 billion. Any beat to the upside will be well-received and could be the catalyst needed to finally move the needle on WMT stock.\nThe company has received several bullish analyst ratings recently, with Goldman Sachs(NYSE:GS) adding the stockto its “conviction buy” list in October. The median price target on the stock, among 19 analysts who cover Walmart, is $170, which is 15% higher than its current level.\nHome Depot (HD)\nAlso reporting Q3 results next week is home improvement retailer Home Depot. The Atlanta-headquartered company has seemingly had it both ways during the pandemic. The company performed well during Covid-19 lockdowns as people focused on fixing up their homes, and has continued to perform well this year as the economic recovery accelerated.\nYear-to-date, HD stock is up nearly 40% at $367.55 per share. And despite the bull run, Home Depot’s share price has continued to trend upward, rising nearly 10% since the start of October. The company is no doubt looking to finish the year strong and keep the momentum in its stock going with its third-quarter results.\nAnalysts are forecasting that Home Depot will report EPS of $3.36 on revenues of $34.69 billion for Q3. This would be after the company reported that its sales in this year’s second quarter increased 8.1% from a year ago to $41 billion, the first time in the company’s history that its quarterly sales surpassed $40 billion.\nWith home prices continuing to rise in the U.S.,up 20% in August this year from the same month of 2020 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, homeowners seem content to continue taking equity out of their domicile and spending it to improve its value, which benefits Home Depot.\nLa-Z-Boy (LZB)\nFurniture manufacturer La-Z-Boy, which is known for its signature brand of upholstered recliners, reports earnings next week as it shares finally breakout after being down for most of this year.\nOver the last month, LZB stock has gained 12% and now trades at $11.43 a share. However, even with that strong performance, the stock remains down 7% on the year. Strong third-quarter results heading into the holidays could accelerate the growth of La-Z-Boy’s stock.\nAnalysts expect the company to announce Q3 EPS of 73 cents on revenues of $540 million.  La-Z-Boy has outperformed Wall Street’s earnings expectations in the four previous quarters. Overall, La-Z-Boy has grown its revenues by 9.5% and grown its net income by 32.3% since 2018. The furniture retailer is also praised for having a clean balance sheet with $391.21 million in cash on hand and $362.64 million in total debt.\nAnalysts will be watching La-Z-Boy to see if global supply constraints have materially impacted its business or will do so going forward.\nLowe’s (LOW)\nLowe’s, the home improvement retailer and main rival of Home Depot, also reports next week. And, as with Home Depot, Lowe’s stock has been a strong outperformer this year, up a total of 45% to $232.76 a share.\nThe rally in LOW stock has gathered steam in recent weeks, with the share price climbing 11% over the last month. The stellar stock performance has been propelled by exceptional sales that reached a record $27.6 billion in Lowe’s previous quarterly report.\nEqually impressive is the fact that Lowe’s says it now generates 25% of its revenues from professionals such as contractors, electricians and plumbers. It is those professionals that are highly coveted by both Lowe’s and Home Depot as consistent repeat customers.\nIn an effort to attract even more professional customers and keep its sales in record territory, Lowe’s has beendesigning more intuitive store layouts based on helping contractors and other trades find everything they need for a specific job without having to search the entire store.\nAdditionally, the company has moved its website “Lowe’s for Pros” to the cloud, which enabled the company to add enhanced features, faster updates, and provide more personalized offers to those highly sought after professionals.Analysts have forecast that Lowe’s will announce EPS of $2.31 on revenues of $21.77 billion for its most recent quarter.\nTarget (TGT)\nTarget has been yet another top performer among retail stocks, up 44% so far in 2021 and up 60% in the last 52-weeks. At $256.26. TGT stock has run uninterrupted all year.\nHowever, some analysts are raising concerns that the rally could be running out of steam. When Goldman Sachs added Walmart to its conviction list in October, the investment bank removed Target, stating that is expects slower growth from the Minneapolis-based company next year that is more inline with its historic performance. Target will be looking to prove the naysayers wrong when it announces its Q3 results.\nMuch of Target’s turnaround over the past few years is attributed to CEOBrian Cornell, who took over in 2014 as the company was dealing with a data breach that exposed the debit and credit card information of 40 million customers and its expansion into Canada was failing and dragging on the bottom line.\nCornell made the decision to exit Canada and has since invested heavily in e-commerce and brand name apparel. The moves proved to be the right ones judging by TGT stock, which is up 236% over the past five years. For next week’s earnings,Wall Street is anticipating EPS of $2.81 on revenues of $24.59 billion.\nMacy’s (M)\nMacy’s has not only been a top-performing retail stock, it has been one of the best performing of all stocks this year. Since January, Macy’s share price has increased 175% to its current level of $30.89. In the last month alone, M stock has gained 36%. The company has left its competitors in the dust as its shares continue rising higher and higher.\nMacy’s now has a market capitalization approaching $10 billion. The incredible growth is due to a strong e-commerce strategy that has propelled shares higher. Although some analysts have claimed that Macy’s share price appreciation is due to it being treated as a meme stock by retail investors.\nFounded in 1858, Macy’s today operates more than nearly 800 stores under the Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury brands. The company has recently been targeted by activist group Jana Partners, which is trying to force Macy’s to spin-off its successful and lucrative e-commerce business, which Jana Partners has estimated could be worth $15 billion.\nThe reaction to Jana Partners efforts has been largely negative and it looks as though Macy’s will control its own destiny when it comes to its e-commerce platform. For its latest earnings, analysts forecast Macy’s will report EPS of $0.29 on revenues of $5.18 billion.\nFoot Locker (FL)\nNew York-based footwear and apparel retailer Foot Locker’s latest earnings report comes as its stock has risen 15% in the last month, bringing year-to-date gains to 37%. At $53.86 a share, FL stock is now up nearly 50% in the past 52-weeks.\nThe company just announced that it is launching a brand new apparel line called “LCKR” that is focused on casual wear such as pullover hoodies and sweatpants. Foot Locker enlisted popular rapper Gunna to be the face of its newest brand, which officially launched Oct. 20 and should help boost sales heading into the New Year.\nThe company also recently completed a $360 million acquisition of Japanese retailer Atmos, which sells premium sneakers and apparel at 49 stores around the world, including 39 in Japan. The deal helps to expand Foot Locker globally as the company seeks growth opportunities outside its American home market.\nAnalysts have praised Foot Locker for its recent moves aimed at expanding its brand and operations. When it announces earnings next week,Wall Street is looking for the company to report EPS of $1.35 and revenues of $2.12 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TGT":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"LOW":0.9,"HD":0.9,"LZB":0.9,"FL":0.9,"M":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873089285,"gmtCreate":1636797744915,"gmtModify":1636797745026,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi&nbsp;","listText":"Woi&nbsp;","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873089285","repostId":"1102251183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102251183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636772424,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102251183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102251183","media":"Barrons","summary":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Mo","content":"<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一清晨，通过电话联系到辉瑞公司的首席科学官米凯尔-多尔斯滕（Mikael Dolsten）时，他听起来头晕目眩。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其 Covid-19 抗病毒药物已将高危成年人的住院风险降低了 89%，这一消息震惊了市场。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”这不可能是一件偶然的事情，你能够打破这种世界纪录，同时获得大满贯。他在试图说明辉瑞公司双赢的重要性时，用了体育比喻： 仅用了 10 个月就研制出了一种非常有效的 Covid-19 疫苗，一年后又研制出了一种同样令人惊叹的 Covid-19 抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 要求投资者在多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务上下大注。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla 已经摆脱了辉瑞公司的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者保健产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司将依靠多尔斯滕的科学力量生死存亡。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在 2019 年 11 月的封面故事中，<i>巴伦</i>认为Bourla和Dolsten能成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞公司的观点：<i>巴伦</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从疫情中获利会带来新的风险。低收入国家在全球70多亿剂疫苗中所占比例不到1%。如果辉瑞公司抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞公司股价飙升 10.9%，创下至少 20 年来最佳单日表现。尽管如此，随着该股目前在 50 美元左右易手，投资者继续低估该公司的估值。投资者对辉瑞公司的定价是明年预期收益的 12 倍，低于强生公司（JNJ）和礼来公司（LLY）等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临的专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去少数几种每年带来数十亿美元收入的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这种担忧是合理的，但辉瑞公司的科学政变应该让投资者相信，该公司的科学能够安全地渡过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能迎头赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞公司科学实力的最好例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司的 Covid-19 疫苗来自德国生物技术公司 BioNTech (BNTX) 的实验室，而新型 Covid-19 抗病毒药物则是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞公司位于美国东北部的实验室科学家 “梦之队 ”研发出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将精力分散在与 BioNTech 在疫苗方面的合作和对 Covid-19 药丸的追求上。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的 “巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目是一个规模小得多的项目——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源开展工作。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，资源相当适中。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括辉瑞公司的药物设计主管夏洛特-阿勒顿（Charlotte Allerton）。科学家们从辉瑞公司几年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“辉瑞的药物研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂是静脉注射给药的，口服给药时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应。科学家们创造了 600 种化合物来确定合适的药物，这一过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“他说：”四年在这里变成了四个月。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药丸。目前，该公司正在对该药物进行多项 2/3 期试验，包括一项针对高危患者的试验、一项针对非高危患者的试验以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防措施。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司 (MRK) 的 Covid 治疗药丸更有效。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“Cantor Fitzgerald 的分析师 Louise Chen 说：”这无疑有助于证明（辉瑞的）药品研发比人们想象的要好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈说，在 Covid-19 疫苗和药丸销售的耐久性得到更明确以及其余的管道得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我认为没有一个事件会引发该股的评级被重新评级到下一个级别。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得押注辉瑞成为一项长期战略。与此同时，Moderna (MRNA) 最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不均而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对 Moderna 公司越来越不满，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司 “加大力度”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 股价在过去三个月中下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞公司可能会侵蚀大约一年前推出 Covid-19 疫苗时获得的巨大商誉。本月早些时候，辉瑞公司首席执行官布尔拉将疫苗分配不公归咎于低收入国家，并表示<i>巴伦</i>不下单是他们的错。辉瑞公司以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，用于捐赠给贫困国家，并表示到明年年底将总共至少向中低收入国家交付20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到抗病毒药物时，辉瑞只表示将为较贫穷的国家提供分层定价，这与它对疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫困国家提供自己的 Covid-19 药丸的计划形成了鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，该协议将允许其药丸在全球获得许可，而默克公司无需支付版税。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说，辉瑞公司正在考虑按照与默克公司类似的机制对其药片进行许可。“他说：”我们将研究这些方案。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保无论谁参与其中，都能获得建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措来得还不够快。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家门外举行抗议活动，呼吁辉瑞公司分享其疫苗生产技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞保持相对良好的华盛顿青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学继续推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一清晨，通过电话联系到辉瑞公司的首席科学官米凯尔-多尔斯滕（Mikael Dolsten）时，他听起来头晕目眩。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其 Covid-19 抗病毒药物已将高危成年人的住院风险降低了 89%，这一消息震惊了市场。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”这不可能是一件偶然的事情，你能够打破这种世界纪录，同时获得大满贯。他在试图说明辉瑞公司双赢的重要性时，用了体育比喻： 仅用了 10 个月就研制出了一种非常有效的 Covid-19 疫苗，一年后又研制出了一种同样令人惊叹的 Covid-19 抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 要求投资者在多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务上下大注。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla 已经摆脱了辉瑞公司的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者保健产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司将依靠多尔斯滕的科学力量生死存亡。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在 2019 年 11 月的封面故事中，<i>巴伦</i>认为Bourla和Dolsten能成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞公司的观点：<i>巴伦</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从疫情中获利会带来新的风险。低收入国家在全球70多亿剂疫苗中所占比例不到1%。如果辉瑞公司抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞公司股价飙升 10.9%，创下至少 20 年来最佳单日表现。尽管如此，随着该股目前在 50 美元左右易手，投资者继续低估该公司的估值。投资者对辉瑞公司的定价是明年预期收益的 12 倍，低于强生公司（JNJ）和礼来公司（LLY）等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临的专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去少数几种每年带来数十亿美元收入的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这种担忧是合理的，但辉瑞公司的科学政变应该让投资者相信，该公司的科学能够安全地渡过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能迎头赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞公司科学实力的最好例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司的 Covid-19 疫苗来自德国生物技术公司 BioNTech (BNTX) 的实验室，而新型 Covid-19 抗病毒药物则是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞公司位于美国东北部的实验室科学家 “梦之队 ”研发出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将精力分散在与 BioNTech 在疫苗方面的合作和对 Covid-19 药丸的追求上。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的 “巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目是一个规模小得多的项目——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源开展工作。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，资源相当适中。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括辉瑞公司的药物设计主管夏洛特-阿勒顿（Charlotte Allerton）。科学家们从辉瑞公司几年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“辉瑞的药物研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂是静脉注射给药的，口服给药时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应。科学家们创造了 600 种化合物来确定合适的药物，这一过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“他说：”四年在这里变成了四个月。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药丸。目前，该公司正在对该药物进行多项 2/3 期试验，包括一项针对高危患者的试验、一项针对非高危患者的试验以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防措施。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司 (MRK) 的 Covid 治疗药丸更有效。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“Cantor Fitzgerald 的分析师 Louise Chen 说：”这无疑有助于证明（辉瑞的）药品研发比人们想象的要好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈说，在 Covid-19 疫苗和药丸销售的耐久性得到更明确以及其余的管道得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我认为没有一个事件会引发该股的评级被重新评级到下一个级别。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得押注辉瑞成为一项长期战略。与此同时，Moderna (MRNA) 最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不均而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对 Moderna 公司越来越不满，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司 “加大力度”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 股价在过去三个月中下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞公司可能会侵蚀大约一年前推出 Covid-19 疫苗时获得的巨大商誉。本月早些时候，辉瑞公司首席执行官布尔拉将疫苗分配不公归咎于低收入国家，并表示<i>巴伦</i>不下单是他们的错。辉瑞公司以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，用于捐赠给贫困国家，并表示到明年年底将总共至少向中低收入国家交付20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到抗病毒药物时，辉瑞只表示将为较贫穷的国家提供分层定价，这与它对疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫困国家提供自己的 Covid-19 药丸的计划形成了鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，该协议将允许其药丸在全球获得许可，而默克公司无需支付版税。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说，辉瑞公司正在考虑按照与默克公司类似的机制对其药片进行许可。“他说：”我们将研究这些方案。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保无论谁参与其中，都能获得建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措来得还不够快。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家门外举行抗议活动，呼吁辉瑞公司分享其疫苗生产技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞保持相对良好的华盛顿青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学继续推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102251183","content_text":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.\n“It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.\nTwo years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.\nBourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.\nIn a cover story in November 2019, Barron’s argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.\nThe new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that Barron’s made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.\nPfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY).\nThe Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.\nThe worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.\nThe success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.\nWhile Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech BioNTech (BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.\nIn the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.\nThe antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.\n“The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.\nDolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.\n“[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought.”\nThe protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.\n“They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.\nPfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from Merck (MRK).\n“It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.\nChen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.\n“There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”\nThat makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of Moderna (MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.\nBiden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”\nModerna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.\nAs the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling Barron’s that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.\nWhen it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.\nThat contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.\nDolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”\nSuch a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.\nAn aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845512646,"gmtCreate":1636350355049,"gmtModify":1636350356136,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845512646","repostId":"2181284457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842261921,"gmtCreate":1636183097372,"gmtModify":1636183242678,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi&nbsp;","listText":"Woi&nbsp;","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842261921","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848589111,"gmtCreate":1636012499424,"gmtModify":1636012499792,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848589111","repostId":"1115081189","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115081189","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636012051,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115081189?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Spies, lies and losses: Credit Suisse's scandals<blockquote>间谍、谎言和损失：瑞士信贷的丑闻</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115081189","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy clien","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy client base, the Swiss bank said on Thursday, as it regroups following a string of scandals.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 瑞士银行瑞士信贷周四表示，将削减其投资银行业务，并专注于建立其富裕客户群，此前该银行在经历了一系列丑闻后进行了重组。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who joined in April from Britain's Lloyds Bank to help stop the rot, has said the scandals are the gravest he has seen.</p><p><blockquote>董事长安东尼奥·奥尔塔-奥索里奥 (Antonio Horta-Osorio) 于 4 月从英国劳埃德银行 (Lloyds Bank) 加入，以帮助阻止腐败，他表示这些丑闻是他见过的最严重的丑闻。</blockquote></p><p> Here are some details about the main crises to beset the bank in recent years:</p><p><blockquote>以下是近年来困扰该银行的主要危机的一些详细信息：</blockquote></p><p> TUNA BOND FRAUD</p><p><blockquote>金枪鱼债券欺诈</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse pleaded guilty to defrauding investors over an $850 million loan to Mozambique meant to pay for a tuna fishing fleet and is paying U.S. and British regulators $475 million to settle the case under a deal announced in October.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷承认在向莫桑比克提供 8.5 亿美元贷款的问题上欺骗投资者，该贷款旨在支付金枪鱼捕捞船队的费用，并根据 10 月份宣布的一项协议，向美国和英国监管机构支付 4.75 亿美元以解决此案。</blockquote></p><p> About $200 million of the loan went in kickbacks to Credit Suisse bankers and Mozambican government officials. The bank was aware of a huge shortfall between the funds raised and the value of boats bought but failed to disclose this to investors when the loan was restructured in 2016, the regulators said.</p><p><blockquote>其中约 2 亿美元贷款以回扣的形式流向了瑞士信贷银行家和莫桑比克政府官员。监管机构表示，该银行意识到筹集的资金与购买的船只价值之间存在巨大缺口，但在 2016 年贷款重组时未能向投资者披露这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse also arranged a loan that was kept secret from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When Mozambique admitted to $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans the IMF pulled its support, sending the southern African country's economy into a tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷还安排了一笔对国际货币基金组织（IMF）保密的贷款。当莫桑比克承认有14亿美元未披露的贷款时，国际货币基金组织撤回了支持，使这个南部非洲国家的经济陷入了困境。</blockquote></p><p> ARCHEGOS DEFAULT</p><p><blockquote>ARCHEGOS默认</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse lost $5.5 billion when U.S. family office Archegos Capital Management defaulted in March. The hedge fund's highly leveraged bets on certain technology stocks backfired and the value of its portfolio with Credit Suisse plummeted.</p><p><blockquote>美国家族理财室 Archegos Capital Management 于 3 月份违约，瑞士信贷损失了 55 亿美元。该对冲基金对某些科技股的高杠杆押注适得其反，其与瑞士信贷的投资组合价值暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> An independent report into the incident slammed the bank's conduct, saying its losses were the result of a fundamental failure of management and control at its investment bank, and its prime brokerage division in particular.</p><p><blockquote>一份关于该事件的独立报告猛烈抨击了该银行的行为，称其亏损是其投资银行，特别是其主要经纪部门的管理和控制根本失败的结果。</blockquote></p><p> The report said the bank was focused on maximising short-term profits and failed to rein in voracious risk-taking by Archegos, despite numerous warning signals, calling into question the competence of its risk personnel.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，该银行专注于实现短期利润最大化，未能遏制 Archegos 的贪婪冒险行为，尽管发出了许多警告信号，这让人对其风险人员的能力提出了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> GREENSILL FUNDS COLLAPSE</p><p><blockquote>格林希尔基金崩溃</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was forced to freeze $10 billion of supply chain finance funds in March when British financier Greensill Capital collapsed after losing insurance cover for debt issued against its loans to companies.</p><p><blockquote>今年 3 月，英国金融家格林希尔资本 (Greensill Capital) 因失去针对其向企业发放的贷款发行的债务保险而倒闭，瑞士信贷被迫冻结了 100 亿美元的供应链融资资金。</blockquote></p><p> The Swiss bank had sold billions of dollars of Greensill's debt to investors, assuring them in marketing material that the high-yield notes were low risk because the underlying credit exposure was fully insured.</p><p><blockquote>这家瑞士银行已向投资者出售了数十亿美元的格林希尔债务，并在营销材料中向他们保证，高收益票据风险较低，因为基础信用风险已完全投保。</blockquote></p><p> A number of investors have sued the Swiss bank over the Greensill-linked funds. The bank said on Sept. 27 it had recovered and returned about $6.3 billion to investors but has warned it may struggle to recoup $2.3 billion of the total.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者已就与格林希尔相关的基金起诉这家瑞士银行。该银行于 9 月 27 日表示，已收回并向投资者返还了约 63 亿美元，但警告称，可能难以收回总额中的 23 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> SPYING SCANDAL</p><p><blockquote>间谍丑闻</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam was forced to quit in March 2020 after an investigation found the bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席执行官蒂贾恩·蒂亚姆 (Tidjane Thiam) 于 2020 年 3 月被迫辞职，此前一项调查发现，该银行在其前财富管理主管伊克巴尔·卡恩 (Iqbal Kahn) 前往主要竞争对手瑞银 (UBS) 后聘请私家侦探对其进行SPDR标普500指数ETF。</blockquote></p><p> The bank repeatedly played down the episode as an isolated incident.</p><p><blockquote>银行一再将这一事件淡化为孤立事件。</blockquote></p><p> In October, however, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) said Credit Suisse had misled them about the scale of the spying. It said the bank planned seven different spying operations between 2016 and 2019 and carried out most of them.</p><p><blockquote>然而，10 月份，瑞士金融监管机构 (FINMA) 表示，瑞士信贷在间谍活动的规模上误导了他们。它表示，该银行在 2016 年至 2019 年间计划了七次不同的间谍活动，并实施了其中大部分。</blockquote></p><p> In a rare rebuke, it said there were serious organisational shortcomings at Credit Suisse and that the bank had even tried to cover its tracks by doctoring an invoice for surveillance.</p><p><blockquote>它罕见地斥责瑞士信贷存在严重的组织缺陷，甚至试图通过伪造监控发票来掩盖其踪迹。</blockquote></p><p> In response, Credit Suisse said that it condemned the spying and had taken \"decisive\" steps to improve its governance and strengthen compliance.</p><p><blockquote>对此，瑞士信贷表示谴责间谍活动，并已采取“果断”措施改善治理并加强合规。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spies, lies and losses: Credit Suisse's scandals<blockquote>间谍、谎言和损失：瑞士信贷的丑闻</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpies, lies and losses: Credit Suisse's scandals<blockquote>间谍、谎言和损失：瑞士信贷的丑闻</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy client base, the Swiss bank said on Thursday, as it regroups following a string of scandals.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 瑞士银行瑞士信贷周四表示，将削减其投资银行业务，并专注于建立其富裕客户群，此前该银行在经历了一系列丑闻后进行了重组。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who joined in April from Britain's Lloyds Bank to help stop the rot, has said the scandals are the gravest he has seen.</p><p><blockquote>董事长安东尼奥·奥尔塔-奥索里奥 (Antonio Horta-Osorio) 于 4 月从英国劳埃德银行 (Lloyds Bank) 加入，以帮助阻止腐败，他表示这些丑闻是他见过的最严重的丑闻。</blockquote></p><p> Here are some details about the main crises to beset the bank in recent years:</p><p><blockquote>以下是近年来困扰该银行的主要危机的一些详细信息：</blockquote></p><p> TUNA BOND FRAUD</p><p><blockquote>金枪鱼债券欺诈</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse pleaded guilty to defrauding investors over an $850 million loan to Mozambique meant to pay for a tuna fishing fleet and is paying U.S. and British regulators $475 million to settle the case under a deal announced in October.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷承认在向莫桑比克提供 8.5 亿美元贷款的问题上欺骗投资者，该贷款旨在支付金枪鱼捕捞船队的费用，并根据 10 月份宣布的一项协议，向美国和英国监管机构支付 4.75 亿美元以解决此案。</blockquote></p><p> About $200 million of the loan went in kickbacks to Credit Suisse bankers and Mozambican government officials. The bank was aware of a huge shortfall between the funds raised and the value of boats bought but failed to disclose this to investors when the loan was restructured in 2016, the regulators said.</p><p><blockquote>其中约 2 亿美元贷款以回扣的形式流向了瑞士信贷银行家和莫桑比克政府官员。监管机构表示，该银行意识到筹集的资金与购买的船只价值之间存在巨大缺口，但在 2016 年贷款重组时未能向投资者披露这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse also arranged a loan that was kept secret from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When Mozambique admitted to $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans the IMF pulled its support, sending the southern African country's economy into a tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷还安排了一笔对国际货币基金组织（IMF）保密的贷款。当莫桑比克承认有14亿美元未披露的贷款时，国际货币基金组织撤回了支持，使这个南部非洲国家的经济陷入了困境。</blockquote></p><p> ARCHEGOS DEFAULT</p><p><blockquote>ARCHEGOS默认</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse lost $5.5 billion when U.S. family office Archegos Capital Management defaulted in March. The hedge fund's highly leveraged bets on certain technology stocks backfired and the value of its portfolio with Credit Suisse plummeted.</p><p><blockquote>美国家族理财室 Archegos Capital Management 于 3 月份违约，瑞士信贷损失了 55 亿美元。该对冲基金对某些科技股的高杠杆押注适得其反，其与瑞士信贷的投资组合价值暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> An independent report into the incident slammed the bank's conduct, saying its losses were the result of a fundamental failure of management and control at its investment bank, and its prime brokerage division in particular.</p><p><blockquote>一份关于该事件的独立报告猛烈抨击了该银行的行为，称其亏损是其投资银行，特别是其主要经纪部门的管理和控制根本失败的结果。</blockquote></p><p> The report said the bank was focused on maximising short-term profits and failed to rein in voracious risk-taking by Archegos, despite numerous warning signals, calling into question the competence of its risk personnel.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，该银行专注于实现短期利润最大化，未能遏制 Archegos 的贪婪冒险行为，尽管发出了许多警告信号，这让人对其风险人员的能力提出了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> GREENSILL FUNDS COLLAPSE</p><p><blockquote>格林希尔基金崩溃</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was forced to freeze $10 billion of supply chain finance funds in March when British financier Greensill Capital collapsed after losing insurance cover for debt issued against its loans to companies.</p><p><blockquote>今年 3 月，英国金融家格林希尔资本 (Greensill Capital) 因失去针对其向企业发放的贷款发行的债务保险而倒闭，瑞士信贷被迫冻结了 100 亿美元的供应链融资资金。</blockquote></p><p> The Swiss bank had sold billions of dollars of Greensill's debt to investors, assuring them in marketing material that the high-yield notes were low risk because the underlying credit exposure was fully insured.</p><p><blockquote>这家瑞士银行已向投资者出售了数十亿美元的格林希尔债务，并在营销材料中向他们保证，高收益票据风险较低，因为基础信用风险已完全投保。</blockquote></p><p> A number of investors have sued the Swiss bank over the Greensill-linked funds. The bank said on Sept. 27 it had recovered and returned about $6.3 billion to investors but has warned it may struggle to recoup $2.3 billion of the total.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者已就与格林希尔相关的基金起诉这家瑞士银行。该银行于 9 月 27 日表示，已收回并向投资者返还了约 63 亿美元，但警告称，可能难以收回总额中的 23 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> SPYING SCANDAL</p><p><blockquote>间谍丑闻</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam was forced to quit in March 2020 after an investigation found the bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席执行官蒂贾恩·蒂亚姆 (Tidjane Thiam) 于 2020 年 3 月被迫辞职，此前一项调查发现，该银行在其前财富管理主管伊克巴尔·卡恩 (Iqbal Kahn) 前往主要竞争对手瑞银 (UBS) 后聘请私家侦探对其进行SPDR标普500指数ETF。</blockquote></p><p> The bank repeatedly played down the episode as an isolated incident.</p><p><blockquote>银行一再将这一事件淡化为孤立事件。</blockquote></p><p> In October, however, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) said Credit Suisse had misled them about the scale of the spying. It said the bank planned seven different spying operations between 2016 and 2019 and carried out most of them.</p><p><blockquote>然而，10 月份，瑞士金融监管机构 (FINMA) 表示，瑞士信贷在间谍活动的规模上误导了他们。它表示，该银行在 2016 年至 2019 年间计划了七次不同的间谍活动，并实施了其中大部分。</blockquote></p><p> In a rare rebuke, it said there were serious organisational shortcomings at Credit Suisse and that the bank had even tried to cover its tracks by doctoring an invoice for surveillance.</p><p><blockquote>它罕见地斥责瑞士信贷存在严重的组织缺陷，甚至试图通过伪造监控发票来掩盖其踪迹。</blockquote></p><p> In response, Credit Suisse said that it condemned the spying and had taken \"decisive\" steps to improve its governance and strengthen compliance.</p><p><blockquote>对此，瑞士信贷表示谴责间谍活动，并已采取“果断”措施改善治理并加强合规。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-spies-lies-losses-credit-073828712.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-spies-lies-losses-credit-073828712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115081189","content_text":"(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy client base, the Swiss bank said on Thursday, as it regroups following a string of scandals.\nChairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who joined in April from Britain's Lloyds Bank to help stop the rot, has said the scandals are the gravest he has seen.\nHere are some details about the main crises to beset the bank in recent years:\nTUNA BOND FRAUD\nCredit Suisse pleaded guilty to defrauding investors over an $850 million loan to Mozambique meant to pay for a tuna fishing fleet and is paying U.S. and British regulators $475 million to settle the case under a deal announced in October.\nAbout $200 million of the loan went in kickbacks to Credit Suisse bankers and Mozambican government officials. The bank was aware of a huge shortfall between the funds raised and the value of boats bought but failed to disclose this to investors when the loan was restructured in 2016, the regulators said.\nCredit Suisse also arranged a loan that was kept secret from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When Mozambique admitted to $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans the IMF pulled its support, sending the southern African country's economy into a tailspin.\nARCHEGOS DEFAULT\nCredit Suisse lost $5.5 billion when U.S. family office Archegos Capital Management defaulted in March. The hedge fund's highly leveraged bets on certain technology stocks backfired and the value of its portfolio with Credit Suisse plummeted.\nAn independent report into the incident slammed the bank's conduct, saying its losses were the result of a fundamental failure of management and control at its investment bank, and its prime brokerage division in particular.\nThe report said the bank was focused on maximising short-term profits and failed to rein in voracious risk-taking by Archegos, despite numerous warning signals, calling into question the competence of its risk personnel.\nGREENSILL FUNDS COLLAPSE\nCredit Suisse was forced to freeze $10 billion of supply chain finance funds in March when British financier Greensill Capital collapsed after losing insurance cover for debt issued against its loans to companies.\nThe Swiss bank had sold billions of dollars of Greensill's debt to investors, assuring them in marketing material that the high-yield notes were low risk because the underlying credit exposure was fully insured.\nA number of investors have sued the Swiss bank over the Greensill-linked funds. The bank said on Sept. 27 it had recovered and returned about $6.3 billion to investors but has warned it may struggle to recoup $2.3 billion of the total.\nSPYING SCANDAL\nCredit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam was forced to quit in March 2020 after an investigation found the bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS.\nThe bank repeatedly played down the episode as an isolated incident.\nIn October, however, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) said Credit Suisse had misled them about the scale of the spying. It said the bank planned seven different spying operations between 2016 and 2019 and carried out most of them.\nIn a rare rebuke, it said there were serious organisational shortcomings at Credit Suisse and that the bank had even tried to cover its tracks by doctoring an invoice for surveillance.\nIn response, Credit Suisse said that it condemned the spying and had taken \"decisive\" steps to improve its governance and strengthen compliance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841239781,"gmtCreate":1635913022569,"gmtModify":1635913022668,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841239781","repostId":"2180736486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":883266137,"gmtCreate":1631245187929,"gmtModify":1631889150149,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883266137","repostId":"1109335825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109335825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631244962,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109335825?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 11:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值存在巨大上涨潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109335825","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two mode","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li>  <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li>  <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li>  <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li>  <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多功能车 G3，另一款是名为 P7 的智能轿车。</li><li>该公司的汽车配备了 XPILOT 2.5，但很快将加入 XPILOT 3.5 和 XPILOT 4.0。新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。</li><li>XPEV 很可能在未来九年内实现接近 30%-25% 的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。</li><li>我设计了一个DCF模型，包括FCF/销售额8%-7%，2026年至2030年销售增长30%-28%。隐含的股价等于114-157美元。</li><li>我使用 6.7% 的 WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性会大幅下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔系数。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对该股的需求并降低波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车 (XPEV) 在新的 XPILOT 技术上投资了数十亿美元，当管理层交付新技术时，它可能会给司机带来惊喜。该公司还拥有大量现金投资于中国和国际市场的营销。考虑到这一点，并假设 XPEV 未来看起来会像特斯拉 (TSLA)，我设计了一个 DCF 模型。从2026年到2030年，我使用了8-7%的FCF/销售额和30-28%的销售额增长。该公司的隐含估值接近 114-157 美元。公司估值有很大的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务：XPILOT新技术和国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called&nbsp;P7:</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多功能车 G3，另一款是名为 P7 的智能轿车：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司网站</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate&nbsp;XPILOT 3.5&nbsp;and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的汽车配备了 XPILOT 2.5，但很快将加入 XPILOT 3.5 和 XPILOT 4.0。新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。在我看来，当投资者了解到XPEV即将发布的新技术时，对该股的需求将会增加：</blockquote></p><p>   The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube  In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in&nbsp;Europe&nbsp;and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p><p><blockquote>新架构包括32个感知传感器（包括2个激光雷达单元、12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达和13个高分辨率摄像头）和1个高精度定位单元（GNSS+IMU），集成到360°双感知融合中，为感知传感器提供足够的冗余，以应对具有挑战性和复杂的路况。资料来源：YouTube 在我看来，该股的另一个催化剂是公司的国际扩张。我认为投资者没有考虑到，XPEV 最近出售股权的净收益中，有近 5% 被用于扩大公司在欧洲和其他地区的业务。如果考虑到中国以外的市场机会，XPEV未来的自由现金流将会激增：</blockquote></p><p>   Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus  <b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p><p><blockquote>所得款项净额约5%（约689,000,000港元）预期将用于策略性地建立及扩大我们于国际市场的业务，首先是若干欧洲市场。资料来源：招股章程<b>财务状况：大量现金</b></blockquote></p><p> In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>2021年6月，XPEV报告总资产为70亿美元，其中现金和短期存款43亿美元，负债价值20亿美元。有了这些财务数据，我相信该公司有财力投资于研发和营销工作。该公司拥有促进销售增长所需的一切：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，XPEV报告长期借款2.47亿美元。该公司的长期借款似乎并不令人担忧。这还不是全部。XPEV 报告了大量的递延收入，这意味着客户需要提前付款才能购买该公司的产品。这意味着两件事。首先，该公司可能不必与银行家交谈，因为客户为汽车的开发提供资金。其次，XPEV 的产品需求量很大：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Base Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本案例场景</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，如果公司继续提供创新技术，销售增长将保持较高水平。在基本情况下，我假设该公司将推出其XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0来支持下一代自动驾驶硬件。此外，我还假设该公司将成功重新设计其动力系统和 E/E 架构，以提高成本效益，并与蔚来（蔚来）或特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的汽车竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：XPILOT - YouTube</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p><p><blockquote>我还希望 XPEV 能够增加软件和内容产品的货币化，就像该公司将 XPILOT 工具货币化一样。此外，如果该公司成功与第三方应用程序开发商合作，我预计 XPEV 会找到更多的货币化模式。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，有了这些假设，XPEV将能够在未来九年内实现接近30%-25%的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。这家美国公司从 2012 年到 2014 年实现了超过 240% 的销售额增长，然后从 2016 年到 2021 年增长了约 29-33%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p><p><blockquote>我还研究了特斯拉的盈利能力，以了解 XPEV 何时可以开始提供运营现金流。特斯拉花了近 14-16 年的时间才从运营中获得积极且可观的现金流。XPEV很可能会更快，因为它可能会从蔚来和特斯拉的车辆中获得某些战略信息。因此，我认为在公司成立 14-16 年后，XPEV 的现金流将为正：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p><p><blockquote>我的现金流数据如下表所示。我预计2021年至2027年运营现金流为负，2028年至2030年将逐渐增加。到2030年，我假设销售额增长25%，资本支出/销售额增长4%，自由现金流/销售额增长6%。特斯拉目前的自由现金流/销售额为 8%。然而，我使用了低于特斯拉的自由现金流利润率，因为我预计电动汽车行业会有许多新进入者：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I assumed a&nbsp;WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p><p><blockquote>我假设 WACC 为 7.26%，与中国其他汽车制造商的水平非常接近。我不会变得非常保守或非常乐观。我使用的是市场对 XPEV 风险的看法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：小鹏 WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p><p><blockquote>2031年自由现金流为180亿元，退出倍数为67倍，净债务接近-270亿元，股数为7.96亿元，隐含股价等于796元。如果我们使用美元，公允价值接近114美元。交易员目前以 39 美元的大幅折扣购买股票。出于某种原因，考虑到最近的价格动态，我想说投资者正在以 36-40 美元的价格积累股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乐观情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p><p><blockquote>在我乐观的情况下，XPEV 将大幅扩大其在城市实体店的业务，因此该公司的电动汽车将找到需求。此外，公司将加大营销力度，小鹏品牌超级充电站网络将大幅扩展。</blockquote></p><p> Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在这种情况下，该公司将能够在中国境外销售。2020年，该公司在挪威交付了第一批G3。如果XPEV能够在整个欧洲销售，我相信销量增长将保持高位：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus  With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p><p><blockquote>我们计划继续拓展其他国际市场，首先是若干欧洲市场。我们旨在建立及提升我们的海外销售及服务能力，并调整我们软件系统的用户界面，为海外市场的消费者优化我们的产品及服务。资料来源：招股说明书 有了这些新的假设，我相信公司从 2026 年到 2030 年的销售额增长率将接近 30-28%。我还假设 2028 年至 2030 年 CFO/销售额为 5%-11%，FCF/销售额为 8%-7%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，公司的销售额增长大于基本情况。自由现金流利润率和首席财务官利润率也更为显着。因此，我使用了87倍的退出倍数，这比基本情况下的倍数要大。</blockquote></p><p> I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p><p><blockquote>我使用 6.7% 的 WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性会大幅下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔系数。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对该股的需求并降低波动性。综合来看，我得到了157美元的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发活动可能不会成功</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&amp;D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，XPEV 的主要战略来自研发投资。该公司在自动驾驶、动力系统和 E/E 架构方面的创新很可能决定公司未来的成功。因此，如果公司的研发工作不敌竞争对手，公司的声誉可能会受损。因此，我预计收入将会下降。在这种情况下，对自由现金流的预期将下降，这可能导致公司估值降低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自动驾驶技术与事故</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV 很可能会像特斯拉一样遭受与自动驾驶系统相关的事故。这些事件可能会对公众看法产生负面影响，并很可能引发政府审查和进一步监管。中国、欧洲或美国的法规可能会损害公司的收入，或减少 XPEV 的自由现金流利润率。但这还不是全部。XPEV还可能取消客户已经下的订单，这很可能会导致自由现金流预期下降。因此，公司的公允价值可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV正在投入大量资金进行研发，以提供其新的XPILOT技术和E/E架构。该公司还拥有大量现金，用于在中国和中国以外的营销工作。我相信该公司的财务数据将接近特斯拉。考虑到这一点，我设计了一个DCF模型，包括8-7%的FCF/销售额和2026年至2030年30-28%的销售额增长。隐含股价相当于 114-157 美元，高于公司目前的股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值存在巨大上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSignificant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值存在巨大上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li>  <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li>  <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li>  <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li>  <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多功能车 G3，另一款是名为 P7 的智能轿车。</li><li>该公司的汽车配备了 XPILOT 2.5，但很快将加入 XPILOT 3.5 和 XPILOT 4.0。新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。</li><li>XPEV 很可能在未来九年内实现接近 30%-25% 的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。</li><li>我设计了一个DCF模型，包括FCF/销售额8%-7%，2026年至2030年销售增长30%-28%。隐含的股价等于114-157美元。</li><li>我使用 6.7% 的 WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性会大幅下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔系数。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对该股的需求并降低波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车 (XPEV) 在新的 XPILOT 技术上投资了数十亿美元，当管理层交付新技术时，它可能会给司机带来惊喜。该公司还拥有大量现金投资于中国和国际市场的营销。考虑到这一点，并假设 XPEV 未来看起来会像特斯拉 (TSLA)，我设计了一个 DCF 模型。从2026年到2030年，我使用了8-7%的FCF/销售额和30-28%的销售额增长。该公司的隐含估值接近 114-157 美元。公司估值有很大的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务：XPILOT新技术和国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called&nbsp;P7:</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多功能车 G3，另一款是名为 P7 的智能轿车：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司网站</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate&nbsp;XPILOT 3.5&nbsp;and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的汽车配备了 XPILOT 2.5，但很快将加入 XPILOT 3.5 和 XPILOT 4.0。新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。在我看来，当投资者了解到XPEV即将发布的新技术时，对该股的需求将会增加：</blockquote></p><p>   The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube  In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in&nbsp;Europe&nbsp;and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p><p><blockquote>新架构包括32个感知传感器（包括2个激光雷达单元、12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达和13个高分辨率摄像头）和1个高精度定位单元（GNSS+IMU），集成到360°双感知融合中，为感知传感器提供足够的冗余，以应对具有挑战性和复杂的路况。资料来源：YouTube 在我看来，该股的另一个催化剂是公司的国际扩张。我认为投资者没有考虑到，XPEV 最近出售股权的净收益中，有近 5% 被用于扩大公司在欧洲和其他地区的业务。如果考虑到中国以外的市场机会，XPEV未来的自由现金流将会激增：</blockquote></p><p>   Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus  <b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p><p><blockquote>所得款项净额约5%（约689,000,000港元）预期将用于策略性地建立及扩大我们于国际市场的业务，首先是若干欧洲市场。资料来源：招股章程<b>财务状况：大量现金</b></blockquote></p><p> In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>2021年6月，XPEV报告总资产为70亿美元，其中现金和短期存款43亿美元，负债价值20亿美元。有了这些财务数据，我相信该公司有财力投资于研发和营销工作。该公司拥有促进销售增长所需的一切：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，XPEV报告长期借款2.47亿美元。该公司的长期借款似乎并不令人担忧。这还不是全部。XPEV 报告了大量的递延收入，这意味着客户需要提前付款才能购买该公司的产品。这意味着两件事。首先，该公司可能不必与银行家交谈，因为客户为汽车的开发提供资金。其次，XPEV 的产品需求量很大：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Base Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本案例场景</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，如果公司继续提供创新技术，销售增长将保持较高水平。在基本情况下，我假设该公司将推出其XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0来支持下一代自动驾驶硬件。此外，我还假设该公司将成功重新设计其动力系统和 E/E 架构，以提高成本效益，并与蔚来（蔚来）或特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的汽车竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：XPILOT - YouTube</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p><p><blockquote>我还希望 XPEV 能够增加软件和内容产品的货币化，就像该公司将 XPILOT 工具货币化一样。此外，如果该公司成功与第三方应用程序开发商合作，我预计 XPEV 会找到更多的货币化模式。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，有了这些假设，XPEV将能够在未来九年内实现接近30%-25%的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。这家美国公司从 2012 年到 2014 年实现了超过 240% 的销售额增长，然后从 2016 年到 2021 年增长了约 29-33%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p><p><blockquote>我还研究了特斯拉的盈利能力，以了解 XPEV 何时可以开始提供运营现金流。特斯拉花了近 14-16 年的时间才从运营中获得积极且可观的现金流。XPEV很可能会更快，因为它可能会从蔚来和特斯拉的车辆中获得某些战略信息。因此，我认为在公司成立 14-16 年后，XPEV 的现金流将为正：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p><p><blockquote>我的现金流数据如下表所示。我预计2021年至2027年运营现金流为负，2028年至2030年将逐渐增加。到2030年，我假设销售额增长25%，资本支出/销售额增长4%，自由现金流/销售额增长6%。特斯拉目前的自由现金流/销售额为 8%。然而，我使用了低于特斯拉的自由现金流利润率，因为我预计电动汽车行业会有许多新进入者：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I assumed a&nbsp;WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p><p><blockquote>我假设 WACC 为 7.26%，与中国其他汽车制造商的水平非常接近。我不会变得非常保守或非常乐观。我使用的是市场对 XPEV 风险的看法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：小鹏 WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p><p><blockquote>2031年自由现金流为180亿元，退出倍数为67倍，净债务接近-270亿元，股数为7.96亿元，隐含股价等于796元。如果我们使用美元，公允价值接近114美元。交易员目前以 39 美元的大幅折扣购买股票。出于某种原因，考虑到最近的价格动态，我想说投资者正在以 36-40 美元的价格积累股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乐观情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p><p><blockquote>在我乐观的情况下，XPEV 将大幅扩大其在城市实体店的业务，因此该公司的电动汽车将找到需求。此外，公司将加大营销力度，小鹏品牌超级充电站网络将大幅扩展。</blockquote></p><p> Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在这种情况下，该公司将能够在中国境外销售。2020年，该公司在挪威交付了第一批G3。如果XPEV能够在整个欧洲销售，我相信销量增长将保持高位：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus  With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p><p><blockquote>我们计划继续拓展其他国际市场，首先是若干欧洲市场。我们旨在建立及提升我们的海外销售及服务能力，并调整我们软件系统的用户界面，为海外市场的消费者优化我们的产品及服务。资料来源：招股说明书 有了这些新的假设，我相信公司从 2026 年到 2030 年的销售额增长率将接近 30-28%。我还假设 2028 年至 2030 年 CFO/销售额为 5%-11%，FCF/销售额为 8%-7%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，公司的销售额增长大于基本情况。自由现金流利润率和首席财务官利润率也更为显着。因此，我使用了87倍的退出倍数，这比基本情况下的倍数要大。</blockquote></p><p> I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p><p><blockquote>我使用 6.7% 的 WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性会大幅下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔系数。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对该股的需求并降低波动性。综合来看，我得到了157美元的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发活动可能不会成功</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&amp;D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，XPEV 的主要战略来自研发投资。该公司在自动驾驶、动力系统和 E/E 架构方面的创新很可能决定公司未来的成功。因此，如果公司的研发工作不敌竞争对手，公司的声誉可能会受损。因此，我预计收入将会下降。在这种情况下，对自由现金流的预期将下降，这可能导致公司估值降低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自动驾驶技术与事故</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV 很可能会像特斯拉一样遭受与自动驾驶系统相关的事故。这些事件可能会对公众看法产生负面影响，并很可能引发政府审查和进一步监管。中国、欧洲或美国的法规可能会损害公司的收入，或减少 XPEV 的自由现金流利润率。但这还不是全部。XPEV还可能取消客户已经下的订单，这很可能会导致自由现金流预期下降。因此，公司的公允价值可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV正在投入大量资金进行研发，以提供其新的XPILOT技术和E/E架构。该公司还拥有大量现金，用于在中国和中国以外的营销工作。我相信该公司的财务数据将接近特斯拉。考虑到这一点，我设计了一个DCF模型，包括8-7%的FCF/销售额和2026年至2030年30-28%的销售额增长。隐含股价相当于 114-157 美元，高于公司目前的股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏集团-W","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109335825","content_text":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.\nXPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.\nI designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.\n\nSimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images\nWith billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.\nBusiness: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:\nSource: Company’s Website\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:\n\n The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube\n\nIn my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:\n\n Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nFinancial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash\nIn June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:\nSource: 10-Q\nAs of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:\nSource: 10-Q\nBase Case Scenario\nIn my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nSource: XPILOT - YouTube\nI would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.\nIn my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:\nSource: YCharts\nI also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:\nSource: YCharts\nMy cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nI assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:\nSource: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com\nWith a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOptimistic Case Scenario\nUnder my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.\nBesides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:\n\n We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nWith these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nUnder this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nR&D Activities May Not Be Successful\nIn my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.\nAutonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents\nXPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.\nConclusion\nXPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892658622,"gmtCreate":1628657705166,"gmtModify":1633745309297,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892658622","repostId":"1163924715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163924715","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628654753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163924715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 12:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163924715","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond","content":"<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前交易下跌，亚洲时段美国10年期国债收益率再度下跌，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅高达5%，中国概念股盘前交易小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一人已清盘或正在逐步清盘其持有的股份。从方舟基金的日常操作来看，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管上述个股近期出现了一定程度的反弹。最近出现的一个更令人鼓舞的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减持中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，共有10只在美国上市的中国股票被方舟基金覆盖，其中包括8只中国概念股和2只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够积极的基金，18亿美元的仓位规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺新兴市场基金，在华投资150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为基础，但基金似乎并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金现在持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席信息官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们对百度股票的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标并非中国电动汽车三驾马车，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约很畅销，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。这再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的闪电</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择了10只股票来分析它们的份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只个股（京东、TCEHY、贝科、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，约占80%，另外5只个股分别是阿里巴巴、小牛、虎牙、比亚迪、百度，合计3亿美元，约占20%（图2）。关键日期标记在下面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金于7月13日、14日清仓虎牙全部持仓（上图标注）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息在7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未实质性减仓，延续了过去几天的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到连锁反应已经发生，在香港上市的中国股票将在接下来的一周内暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被方舟减仓，科控股站上破位。这反映出Cathie Wood对中国高成长性公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在这一轮风波中，方舟基金仅减仓了老板直聘股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值相对较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>近一周，中国概念股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，仓位为4.5亿美元，较7月1日减少75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 12:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前交易下跌，亚洲时段美国10年期国债收益率再度下跌，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅高达5%，中国概念股盘前交易小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一人已清盘或正在逐步清盘其持有的股份。从方舟基金的日常操作来看，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管上述个股近期出现了一定程度的反弹。最近出现的一个更令人鼓舞的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减持中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，共有10只在美国上市的中国股票被方舟基金覆盖，其中包括8只中国概念股和2只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够积极的基金，18亿美元的仓位规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺新兴市场基金，在华投资150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为基础，但基金似乎并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金现在持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席信息官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们对百度股票的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标并非中国电动汽车三驾马车，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约很畅销，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。这再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的闪电</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择了10只股票来分析它们的份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只个股（京东、TCEHY、贝科、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，约占80%，另外5只个股分别是阿里巴巴、小牛、虎牙、比亚迪、百度，合计3亿美元，约占20%（图2）。关键日期标记在下面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金于7月13日、14日清仓虎牙全部持仓（上图标注）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息在7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未实质性减仓，延续了过去几天的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到连锁反应已经发生，在香港上市的中国股票将在接下来的一周内暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被方舟减仓，科控股站上破位。这反映出Cathie Wood对中国高成长性公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在这一轮风波中，方舟基金仅减仓了老板直聘股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值相对较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>近一周，中国概念股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，仓位为4.5亿美元，较7月1日减少75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIU":"小牛电动","XPEV":"小鹏集团","LI":"理想汽车","BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163924715","content_text":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields dropped again in Asias hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%. China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.\nIn the secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.\nOn July 1st, a total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including 8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC). Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as shown in the following figure.\n\nAbout Its Positions\nAs a fund that is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.\nThe Ark Funds claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American investor as well as the CEO & CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including Li Auto, NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by Niu Technologies are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".\nLet’s look into the lightening of the Ark Funds\n10 stocks are chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5 billion, accounting for about 80%. Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA, BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key dates are marked below.\nFigure 1\nFigure 2\nThe Ark Funds cleared all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and continued the pace in the past few days. \nAnother marked date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's suspicion of high-growth companies in China.\nThe third marked date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin (Kanzhun Limited), which is also a company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.\nIn the past week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7 stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450 million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"NIU":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819946017,"gmtCreate":1630030283639,"gmtModify":1704954857962,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819946017","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897204479,"gmtCreate":1628918897491,"gmtModify":1633688480237,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897204479","repostId":"2159321505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321505","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628911811,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159321505?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在 10 月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321505","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. ","content":"<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three</p><p><blockquote>董事会成员任期两年，而不是三年</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc701f141f0c0044cabe912e510fe2e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克去年在德国。MAJA HITIJ/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司在周五晚些时候提交的文件中表示，该公司将于 10 月 7 日在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特工厂召开股东大会，在这家电动汽车制造商将提出的提案中，看涨期权是减少董事任期。</blockquote></p><p> One of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s&nbsp;board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.</p><p><blockquote>其中一项提案是将每位董事的任期从三年缩短至两年。特斯拉董事会目前有九名成员，分为三个班级，交错任期三年。</blockquote></p><p> If the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the&nbsp;filing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉在文件中表示，如果该提案获得批准，董事会将分为两个阶层，任期交错为两年，董事在两个阶层之间尽可能平均分配。</blockquote></p><p> The board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.</p><p><blockquote>自 2007 年以来一直在特斯拉董事会任职的风险投资家 Antonio Gracias 在 2019 年表示，他将在今年任期结束时不再寻求连任，因此董事会成员将减少到八人。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp&nbsp;founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉董事会提名新闻集团创始人默多克的小儿子詹姆斯-默多克（James Murdoch）和首席执行官马斯克（Elon Musk）的弟弟金巴尔-马斯克（Kimbal Musk）连任二级董事，任期将于 2024 年届满。该公司表示，如果缩短任期获得批准，那么他们的任期将于 2023 年结束。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉缩短董事会成员任期是对股东提案的回应，该提案要求选举每位董事会成员一年。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉说，不过，两年的任期 “在公司的长期利益和此时对股东的短期责任之间取得了适当的平衡”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在常规交易日结束时下跌 0.7%，在盘后交易中持平。该股今年上涨了 1.6%，而标普500指数的涨幅约为 19%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在 10 月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在 10 月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three</p><p><blockquote>董事会成员任期两年，而不是三年</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc701f141f0c0044cabe912e510fe2e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克去年在德国。MAJA HITIJ/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司在周五晚些时候提交的文件中表示，该公司将于 10 月 7 日在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特工厂召开股东大会，在这家电动汽车制造商将提出的提案中，看涨期权是减少董事任期。</blockquote></p><p> One of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s&nbsp;board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.</p><p><blockquote>其中一项提案是将每位董事的任期从三年缩短至两年。特斯拉董事会目前有九名成员，分为三个班级，交错任期三年。</blockquote></p><p> If the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the&nbsp;filing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉在文件中表示，如果该提案获得批准，董事会将分为两个阶层，任期交错为两年，董事在两个阶层之间尽可能平均分配。</blockquote></p><p> The board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.</p><p><blockquote>自 2007 年以来一直在特斯拉董事会任职的风险投资家 Antonio Gracias 在 2019 年表示，他将在今年任期结束时不再寻求连任，因此董事会成员将减少到八人。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp&nbsp;founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉董事会提名新闻集团创始人默多克的小儿子詹姆斯-默多克（James Murdoch）和首席执行官马斯克（Elon Musk）的弟弟金巴尔-马斯克（Kimbal Musk）连任二级董事，任期将于 2024 年届满。该公司表示，如果缩短任期获得批准，那么他们的任期将于 2023 年结束。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉缩短董事会成员任期是对股东提案的回应，该提案要求选举每位董事会成员一年。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉说，不过，两年的任期 “在公司的长期利益和此时对股东的短期责任之间取得了适当的平衡”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在常规交易日结束时下跌 0.7%，在盘后交易中持平。该股今年上涨了 1.6%，而标普500指数的涨幅约为 19%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321505","content_text":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES\nTesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.\nOne of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.\nIf the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the filing.\nThe board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.\nTesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.\nTesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.\nThe two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.\nTesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&P 500 index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167937737,"gmtCreate":1624242070929,"gmtModify":1634009019311,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167937737","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":877759198,"gmtCreate":1637988560258,"gmtModify":1637988560392,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877759198","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878413636,"gmtCreate":1637219414306,"gmtModify":1637219414440,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878413636","repostId":"2184510828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168568076,"gmtCreate":1623978885495,"gmtModify":1634024874845,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment? 🙏🏼","listText":"Like and comment? 🙏🏼","text":"Like and comment? 🙏🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168568076","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":851883796,"gmtCreate":1634892129728,"gmtModify":1634892131344,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Apple M1 FTW!","listText":"Apple M1 FTW!","text":"Apple M1 FTW!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851883796","repostId":"1145809326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838098789,"gmtCreate":1629356508641,"gmtModify":1633685444858,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838098789","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}