Winnce的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Winnce

Winnce

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2021-10-26

$Facebook(FB)$losing money

2021-10-18

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Soar

2021-10-02

$BlackRock(BLK)$loosing

2021-10-01

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Too high!

2021-07-29

$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$Can up up up mah

2021-07-29

[Happy] [Miser]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-29

Faster come out

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-29

Wao

Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Then why it dropped

Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Wait wait

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-28

Will this continue drop?

2021-07-12

Why drop

Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.<blockquote>维珍银河在早盘交易中下跌 6%，此前在盘前交易中一度上涨超过 10%。</blockquote>

2021-07-02

Got it

2021-06-28

So nice !

Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote>

2021-06-26

Fly rocket

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

Can buy mah ?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

$Starbucks(SBUX)$Free share , whoops

2021-06-17

Is this CVX good to buy?

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627572541,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179174010?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179174010","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19.While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self","content":"<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆·马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于 8 月 19 日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周四通过推文证实，该公司将于 8 月 19 日举办人工智能日。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能活动的焦点可能是特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于测试阶段，该公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉领域的专家以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 23:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆·马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于 8 月 19 日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周四通过推文证实，该公司将于 8 月 19 日举办人工智能日。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能活动的焦点可能是特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于测试阶段，该公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉领域的专家以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179174010","content_text":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\n\nTesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. \nWhile the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.\nThe focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.\nTesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801194126,"gmtCreate":1627486305965,"gmtModify":1633764507481,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Then why it dropped&nbsp;","listText":"Then why it dropped&nbsp;","text":"Then why it dropped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801194126","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182616893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>  <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>  <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>  <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>另一个伟大的季度表明高价格可能是合理的。</li><li>服务业务的增长比产品更有价值。</li><li>苹果看起来是一家伟大的公司，但估值相当高。</li><li>这里没有必要买，但也没有理由卖。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p><p><blockquote>在又一个出色的季度之后，我对苹果 (AAPL) 所取得的成就、喜爱其产品的客户数量以及所有这些带来的财务业绩感到有点敬畏。我真的对这些盈利数字之大感到惊讶。我在这里的目标只是解释我将如何对苹果股票进行一系列估值，然后我们可以向后计算出不同股价水平“内置”了什么样的假设。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是世界上最好的生意吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>不亚于沃伦·巴菲特的权威称苹果“可能是世界上最好的企业”，原因很容易理解。苹果的主要产品是iPhone（带流行配件）、Mac电脑和iPad。</blockquote></p><p> For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我犯了一个错误，那就是通过将苹果产品的功能和规格与类似价位的其他产品进行比较来分析苹果产品。这是一个巨大的错误。相反，在这种情况下，正确的看法是人们对公司的感觉。它的产品不仅让人快乐，而且已经成为人们身份的一部分。我通常不会在分析文章中以这种方式奉承一家公司或其产品，但这对我想说的下一点很重要。</blockquote></p><p> Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果的产品受到客户的高度重视，其产品具有很高的消费者剩余（下图中的粉红色区域）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Inomics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，许多人愿意为他们从iPhone中获得的东西支付更多费用。这对苹果的业务来说意味着两件重要的事情。首先，随着时间的推移，他们有一些涨价的空间。其次，竞争对手很难以类似的价格提供其他令人满意的东西。这意味着苹果追求利润最大化策略，将价格保持在相对较低的水平（也就是说，你知道有多少已经拥有iPhone的人会选择不同的手机，即使他们不得不额外支付100美元？）.</blockquote></p><p> And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该业务的盈利能力仍然巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利看起来不错</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果第三季度业绩非常强劲，销售额接近 820 亿美元，净利润超过 210 亿美元。新闻报道谈到了同比增长，我认为苹果只是在克服“轻松调整”，因为一年前是新冠肺炎疫情和封锁最糟糕的时期。也就是说，我预计本季度本身就会疲软，随后的业绩不仅会出现异常低的基数，而且还会包括一些延迟购买，因为原本会提前购买的人“赶上”。</blockquote></p><p> Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p><p><blockquote>相反，我惊讶地发现苹果在2020年第三季度也有增长（苹果的财年在9月底结束，所以我们在第三季度）!该电子表格显示了过去三年第三季度的收入和盈利增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，来自公司收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p><p><blockquote>因此，正如我们所看到的，苹果实际上通过疫情深处的产品销售和服务增加了收入。因此，如果有一个“容易补偿”的问题，它仍然是一个增长的业务。同样有可能的是，如果没有旅行或在餐馆吃饭的选择，有可支配收入的人更有可能花在苹果产品上。</blockquote></p><p> This was just a great quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很棒的季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果盈利的简单模型</b></blockquote></p><p> The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p><p><blockquote>现在的工作是把这个放在上下文中。我使用苹果过去五年过去 12 个月的收益制作了这张图表，不仅显示了我们正在谈论的规模，还显示了我们正在谈论的增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p><p><blockquote>过去四个季度，净利润为 860 亿美元。但正如我们上面看到的，苹果将其销售分为两个部分，产品和服务。服务正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p><p><blockquote>苹果上一份年度报告中的这两个项目讲述了一个不断增长且利润越来越高的服务业务的故事：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在第一张图表中看到的，服务收入在三年内从近 400 亿美元增长到近 540 亿美元，在第二张图表中您可以看到，随着收入的增加，它的盈利能力越来越强，毛利率也在增加。这在软件和媒体工作中很常见；如果您的服务可以为 100 万客户支付账单，并且您可以免费添加另一个客户，那么每增加一个客户就是“纯利润”。我们可以看到，这些趋势在今年前三季度才有所增加：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p><p><blockquote>因此，所有这些都是为了说，我不想用 860 亿美元的数字来评估苹果的未来，而是想对“产品”和“服务”业务分别进行倍数。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p><p><blockquote>过去九个月，苹果的毛利率接近1180亿美元。在同一个 10 季度，他们报告的运营费用为 325 亿美元，所得税为 118 亿美元。如果我们将这些产品和服务假设视为独立的业务，并在它们之间分配这些费用和税收，我会按照它们在毛利率中的份额比例进行分配。因此，325亿美元的运营费用和118亿美元的所得税中，29%用于服务，71%用于产品。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的9个月里，这意味着产品将赚取510亿美元，服务将赚取250亿美元。我意识到这个粗略的数字比苹果报告的净利润高出 20 亿美元，但这没关系，因为我们在这里做了很多假设。</blockquote></p><p> In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p><p><blockquote>去年第四季度，苹果的收入仅略高于第三季度。所以要估算一整年，我只是把我九个月的数字乘以4/3。我得到了以下部分的全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> Products: $68 billion</p><p><blockquote>产品：680亿美元</blockquote></p><p> Services: $33 billion</p><p><blockquote>服务：330亿美元</blockquote></p><p> To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p><p><blockquote>为了得出估值，我想提供一系列倍数，让读者找到她认为最合理的数字：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用我的“信封背面”数字，我会很乐意以 16 倍的价格购买苹果的产品业务，25 倍的价格购买其服务，其收益率和企业价值为 1,088 美元 + 825 美元 = 1,913 美元。再加上苹果公司 890 亿美元的额外净现金，我有兴趣购买市值为 2002 亿美元的股票，比最近的价格低约 16%，即每股 123 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我开始担心，如果我们为产品业务支付超过 25 倍，为服务业务支付超过 33 倍，那么估值可能会超前。因此，在 1,700 美元 + 1089 美元 + 89 美元 = 28,780 亿美元或每股 173 美元的市值下，我认为今天支付这个价格太高了，无法获得良好的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p><p><blockquote>有很多事情可能会阻止苹果成为一项好的投资，但当看到这样的结果时，很难想象它们。我不会担心别人制造更好的手机。相反，我最担心的是“未知的未知”，比如一些技术变革，这使得苹果在客户满意度方面的优势与iPhone相比变得不那么相关。</blockquote></p><p> I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p><p><blockquote>我希望我能在这里对苹果的股价得出更坚定的买入/卖出结论，但基于一些合理的假设，我认为它的价值相当高。我有兴趣购买（或出售）低于 120 美元每股的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>  <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>  <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>  <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>另一个伟大的季度表明高价格可能是合理的。</li><li>服务业务的增长比产品更有价值。</li><li>苹果看起来是一家伟大的公司，但估值相当高。</li><li>这里没有必要买，但也没有理由卖。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p><p><blockquote>在又一个出色的季度之后，我对苹果 (AAPL) 所取得的成就、喜爱其产品的客户数量以及所有这些带来的财务业绩感到有点敬畏。我真的对这些盈利数字之大感到惊讶。我在这里的目标只是解释我将如何对苹果股票进行一系列估值，然后我们可以向后计算出不同股价水平“内置”了什么样的假设。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是世界上最好的生意吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>不亚于沃伦·巴菲特的权威称苹果“可能是世界上最好的企业”，原因很容易理解。苹果的主要产品是iPhone（带流行配件）、Mac电脑和iPad。</blockquote></p><p> For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我犯了一个错误，那就是通过将苹果产品的功能和规格与类似价位的其他产品进行比较来分析苹果产品。这是一个巨大的错误。相反，在这种情况下，正确的看法是人们对公司的感觉。它的产品不仅让人快乐，而且已经成为人们身份的一部分。我通常不会在分析文章中以这种方式奉承一家公司或其产品，但这对我想说的下一点很重要。</blockquote></p><p> Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果的产品受到客户的高度重视，其产品具有很高的消费者剩余（下图中的粉红色区域）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Inomics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，许多人愿意为他们从iPhone中获得的东西支付更多费用。这对苹果的业务来说意味着两件重要的事情。首先，随着时间的推移，他们有一些涨价的空间。其次，竞争对手很难以类似的价格提供其他令人满意的东西。这意味着苹果追求利润最大化策略，将价格保持在相对较低的水平（也就是说，你知道有多少已经拥有iPhone的人会选择不同的手机，即使他们不得不额外支付100美元？）.</blockquote></p><p> And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该业务的盈利能力仍然巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利看起来不错</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果第三季度业绩非常强劲，销售额接近 820 亿美元，净利润超过 210 亿美元。新闻报道谈到了同比增长，我认为苹果只是在克服“轻松调整”，因为一年前是新冠肺炎疫情和封锁最糟糕的时期。也就是说，我预计本季度本身就会疲软，随后的业绩不仅会出现异常低的基数，而且还会包括一些延迟购买，因为原本会提前购买的人“赶上”。</blockquote></p><p> Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p><p><blockquote>相反，我惊讶地发现苹果在2020年第三季度也有增长（苹果的财年在9月底结束，所以我们在第三季度）!该电子表格显示了过去三年第三季度的收入和盈利增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，来自公司收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p><p><blockquote>因此，正如我们所看到的，苹果实际上通过疫情深处的产品销售和服务增加了收入。因此，如果有一个“容易补偿”的问题，它仍然是一个增长的业务。同样有可能的是，如果没有旅行或在餐馆吃饭的选择，有可支配收入的人更有可能花在苹果产品上。</blockquote></p><p> This was just a great quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很棒的季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果盈利的简单模型</b></blockquote></p><p> The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p><p><blockquote>现在的工作是把这个放在上下文中。我使用苹果过去五年过去 12 个月的收益制作了这张图表，不仅显示了我们正在谈论的规模，还显示了我们正在谈论的增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p><p><blockquote>过去四个季度，净利润为 860 亿美元。但正如我们上面看到的，苹果将其销售分为两个部分，产品和服务。服务正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p><p><blockquote>苹果上一份年度报告中的这两个项目讲述了一个不断增长且利润越来越高的服务业务的故事：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在第一张图表中看到的，服务收入在三年内从近 400 亿美元增长到近 540 亿美元，在第二张图表中您可以看到，随着收入的增加，它的盈利能力越来越强，毛利率也在增加。这在软件和媒体工作中很常见；如果您的服务可以为 100 万客户支付账单，并且您可以免费添加另一个客户，那么每增加一个客户就是“纯利润”。我们可以看到，这些趋势在今年前三季度才有所增加：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p><p><blockquote>因此，所有这些都是为了说，我不想用 860 亿美元的数字来评估苹果的未来，而是想对“产品”和“服务”业务分别进行倍数。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p><p><blockquote>过去九个月，苹果的毛利率接近1180亿美元。在同一个 10 季度，他们报告的运营费用为 325 亿美元，所得税为 118 亿美元。如果我们将这些产品和服务假设视为独立的业务，并在它们之间分配这些费用和税收，我会按照它们在毛利率中的份额比例进行分配。因此，325亿美元的运营费用和118亿美元的所得税中，29%用于服务，71%用于产品。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的9个月里，这意味着产品将赚取510亿美元，服务将赚取250亿美元。我意识到这个粗略的数字比苹果报告的净利润高出 20 亿美元，但这没关系，因为我们在这里做了很多假设。</blockquote></p><p> In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p><p><blockquote>去年第四季度，苹果的收入仅略高于第三季度。所以要估算一整年，我只是把我九个月的数字乘以4/3。我得到了以下部分的全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> Products: $68 billion</p><p><blockquote>产品：680亿美元</blockquote></p><p> Services: $33 billion</p><p><blockquote>服务：330亿美元</blockquote></p><p> To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p><p><blockquote>为了得出估值，我想提供一系列倍数，让读者找到她认为最合理的数字：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用我的“信封背面”数字，我会很乐意以 16 倍的价格购买苹果的产品业务，25 倍的价格购买其服务，其收益率和企业价值为 1,088 美元 + 825 美元 = 1,913 美元。再加上苹果公司 890 亿美元的额外净现金，我有兴趣购买市值为 2002 亿美元的股票，比最近的价格低约 16%，即每股 123 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我开始担心，如果我们为产品业务支付超过 25 倍，为服务业务支付超过 33 倍，那么估值可能会超前。因此，在 1,700 美元 + 1089 美元 + 89 美元 = 28,780 亿美元或每股 173 美元的市值下，我认为今天支付这个价格太高了，无法获得良好的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p><p><blockquote>有很多事情可能会阻止苹果成为一项好的投资，但当看到这样的结果时，很难想象它们。我不会担心别人制造更好的手机。相反，我最担心的是“未知的未知”，比如一些技术变革，这使得苹果在客户满意度方面的优势与iPhone相比变得不那么相关。</blockquote></p><p> I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p><p><blockquote>我希望我能在这里对苹果的股价得出更坚定的买入/卖出结论，但基于一些合理的假设，我认为它的价值相当高。我有兴趣购买（或出售）低于 120 美元每股的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801192721,"gmtCreate":1627486245563,"gmtModify":1633764508575,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wait wait&nbsp;","listText":"Wait wait&nbsp;","text":"Wait wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801192721","repostId":"2154760924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801196667,"gmtCreate":1627486200259,"gmtModify":1633764509647,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will this continue drop?","listText":"Will this continue drop?","text":"Will this continue drop?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7892029a658f257e9fc74b59ee55d8c8","width":"1125","height":"3292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801196667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142034149,"gmtCreate":1626103163581,"gmtModify":1633930073659,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why drop","listText":"Why drop","text":"Why drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142034149","repostId":"1190430688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190430688","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626097090,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1190430688?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.<blockquote>维珍银河在早盘交易中下跌 6%，此前在盘前交易中一度上涨超过 10%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190430688","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\nS","content":"<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;as&nbsp;once&nbsp;rising&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河在早盘交易中下跌 6%，此前在盘前交易中一度上涨超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d333c87a902f8607ae09dca6c78f8c\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河申请出售高达 5 亿美元的普通股后，该公司股价周一下跌。在此之前，这家商业航天公司的创始人理查德-布兰森爵士（Sir Richard Branson）成功试飞。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河（股票代码为 SPCE）宣布出售 5 亿美元股票后，该公司股价下跌 8%。此前，该公司周日成功完成了进入亚轨道空间的载人试飞，这是商业太空竞赛的一个重要里程碑，也是迈向该公司2022年初商业服务目标的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.</p><p><blockquote>该股最新股价约为 44.80 美元，在盘前交易中上涨了 7%。由于预期商业服务的发展，该股今年迄今已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> \"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity 股票分析师肯·赫伯特 (Ken Herbert) 告诉客户：“我们认为布兰森的成就是维珍银河的一次大规模营销政变，公众不可能忽视。”该公司对该股给予买入评级，但目标价为 35 美元，低于当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> The company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的航天器VSS Unity于周日在新墨西哥州上空发射升空，两名飞行员引导着这位亿万富翁创始人和三名维珍银河员工的飞行器。VSS Unity 启动火箭发动机，加速到三倍于音速的速度，攀登到太空边缘。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>AB Bernstein 分析师道格拉斯·哈内德 (Douglas Harned) 告诉客户：“我们认为这对于开始客运航班非常重要，我们预计这将在 2022 年初发生。”该公司对维珍银河拥有市场表现评级。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的VSS Unity设计最多可容纳六名乘客和两名飞行员。该公司预订了大约600张未来航班的机票，每张售价在20万至25万美元之间。虽然客票销售尚未公布，但伯恩斯坦预计它们的价格将在40万至50万美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河还宣布，它将与抽奖公司Omaze合作，在明年初提供“维珍银河首批商业太空飞行之一”的两个座位的机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这次飞行对于建立消费者对太空旅游的信心和需求具有重要的象征意义，”哈内德说。“包括创始人杰夫·贝索斯在内的蓝色起源公司定于 7 月 20 日成功进行试飞，这应该会引起业界的进一步兴趣，这将使两家公司受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaede22b48f21a26943de5199a5f26e5\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire&nbsp;Jeff Bezos&nbsp;announced&nbsp;he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight&nbsp;on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.</p><p><blockquote>2004年，布兰森创立了维珍银河，将私人乘客送上太空。布兰森此前预计不会参加周日的太空飞行，但在亿万富翁杰夫·贝索斯宣布他将于 7 月 20 日乘坐其公司蓝色起源的首次客运航班后，维珍银河重新安排了时间表——目标是在贝佐斯之前九天让布兰森飞行。</blockquote></p><p> Launching ahead of Bezos or&nbsp;Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.</p><p><blockquote>周日的飞行先于贝佐斯或埃隆·马斯克发射，这意味着布兰森是第一位乘坐自己航天器的亿万富翁航天公司创始人。</blockquote></p><p> AB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.</p><p><blockquote>AB Bernstein 表示，航班的成功和随后的门票销售很可能成为该股短期上涨的催化剂，但不会改变他们的长期预测。该公司确实指出，它不会做空该股，因为它已经看到散户投资者对事件的反应导致了巨大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.<blockquote>维珍银河在早盘交易中下跌 6%，此前在盘前交易中一度上涨超过 10%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.<blockquote>维珍银河在早盘交易中下跌 6%，此前在盘前交易中一度上涨超过 10%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-12 21:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;as&nbsp;once&nbsp;rising&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河在早盘交易中下跌 6%，此前在盘前交易中一度上涨超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d333c87a902f8607ae09dca6c78f8c\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河申请出售高达 5 亿美元的普通股后，该公司股价周一下跌。在此之前，这家商业航天公司的创始人理查德-布兰森爵士（Sir Richard Branson）成功试飞。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河（股票代码为 SPCE）宣布出售 5 亿美元股票后，该公司股价下跌 8%。此前，该公司周日成功完成了进入亚轨道空间的载人试飞，这是商业太空竞赛的一个重要里程碑，也是迈向该公司2022年初商业服务目标的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.</p><p><blockquote>该股最新股价约为 44.80 美元，在盘前交易中上涨了 7%。由于预期商业服务的发展，该股今年迄今已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> \"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity 股票分析师肯·赫伯特 (Ken Herbert) 告诉客户：“我们认为布兰森的成就是维珍银河的一次大规模营销政变，公众不可能忽视。”该公司对该股给予买入评级，但目标价为 35 美元，低于当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> The company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的航天器VSS Unity于周日在新墨西哥州上空发射升空，两名飞行员引导着这位亿万富翁创始人和三名维珍银河员工的飞行器。VSS Unity 启动火箭发动机，加速到三倍于音速的速度，攀登到太空边缘。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>AB Bernstein 分析师道格拉斯·哈内德 (Douglas Harned) 告诉客户：“我们认为这对于开始客运航班非常重要，我们预计这将在 2022 年初发生。”该公司对维珍银河拥有市场表现评级。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的VSS Unity设计最多可容纳六名乘客和两名飞行员。该公司预订了大约600张未来航班的机票，每张售价在20万至25万美元之间。虽然客票销售尚未公布，但伯恩斯坦预计它们的价格将在40万至50万美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河还宣布，它将与抽奖公司Omaze合作，在明年初提供“维珍银河首批商业太空飞行之一”的两个座位的机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这次飞行对于建立消费者对太空旅游的信心和需求具有重要的象征意义，”哈内德说。“包括创始人杰夫·贝索斯在内的蓝色起源公司定于 7 月 20 日成功进行试飞，这应该会引起业界的进一步兴趣，这将使两家公司受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaede22b48f21a26943de5199a5f26e5\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire&nbsp;Jeff Bezos&nbsp;announced&nbsp;he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight&nbsp;on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.</p><p><blockquote>2004年，布兰森创立了维珍银河，将私人乘客送上太空。布兰森此前预计不会参加周日的太空飞行，但在亿万富翁杰夫·贝索斯宣布他将于 7 月 20 日乘坐其公司蓝色起源的首次客运航班后，维珍银河重新安排了时间表——目标是在贝佐斯之前九天让布兰森飞行。</blockquote></p><p> Launching ahead of Bezos or&nbsp;Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.</p><p><blockquote>周日的飞行先于贝佐斯或埃隆·马斯克发射，这意味着布兰森是第一位乘坐自己航天器的亿万富翁航天公司创始人。</blockquote></p><p> AB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.</p><p><blockquote>AB Bernstein 表示，航班的成功和随后的门票销售很可能成为该股短期上涨的催化剂，但不会改变他们的长期预测。该公司确实指出，它不会做空该股，因为它已经看到散户投资者对事件的反应导致了巨大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190430688","content_text":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\nShares of Virgin Galactic slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.\nShares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.\nThe shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.\n\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.\nThe company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.\n\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.\nVirgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.\nVirgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.\n\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"\n\nIn 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire Jeff Bezos announced he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.\nLaunching ahead of Bezos or Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.\nAB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158587019,"gmtCreate":1625156297731,"gmtModify":1633944140431,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Got it","listText":"Got it","text":"Got it","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef05b8f829850360f17943e77fff050f","width":"750","height":"1238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158587019","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150820500,"gmtCreate":1624893358700,"gmtModify":1633947343527,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So nice !","listText":"So nice !","text":"So nice !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150820500","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，三家主要芯片制造商支持收购 Arm，英伟达股价上涨超过 5%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已经站出来表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年 9 月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以 400 亿美元现金和股票从软银集团 (SFTBY) 手中收购 Arm，此次交易将使软银成为英伟达最大的投资者。鉴于 Arm 是芯片行业领先的微处理器设计供应商，这笔交易引起了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛关注。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>上周末有报道称，Arm 的三个重要客户——博通 (AVGO)、Marvell (MRVL) 和台湾联发科 (2454.TW)——已认可这笔交易。我们无法立即联系到所有相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师 Atif Malk 在周日的一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对 Arm 英国业务的投资，英国很可能会批准合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，特别是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一份研究报告中写道：”随着美国继续对中国在科技竞赛中获胜采取咄咄逼人的态度，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入的协议。“如果英伟达能找到一种方法，让 Arm 中国子公司作为一个独立的实体保留下来，而无法访问任何（图形处理器或人工智能）知识产权，那么就有一条途径获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的几率为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，三家主要芯片制造商支持收购 Arm，英伟达股价上涨超过 5%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已经站出来表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年 9 月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以 400 亿美元现金和股票从软银集团 (SFTBY) 手中收购 Arm，此次交易将使软银成为英伟达最大的投资者。鉴于 Arm 是芯片行业领先的微处理器设计供应商，这笔交易引起了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛关注。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>上周末有报道称，Arm 的三个重要客户——博通 (AVGO)、Marvell (MRVL) 和台湾联发科 (2454.TW)——已认可这笔交易。我们无法立即联系到所有相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师 Atif Malk 在周日的一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对 Arm 英国业务的投资，英国很可能会批准合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，特别是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一份研究报告中写道：”随着美国继续对中国在科技竞赛中获胜采取咄咄逼人的态度，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入的协议。“如果英伟达能找到一种方法，让 Arm 中国子公司作为一个独立的实体保留下来，而无法访问任何（图形处理器或人工智能）知识产权，那么就有一条途径获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的几率为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125450600,"gmtCreate":1624687706600,"gmtModify":1633949545568,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585911348022309","authorIdStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fly rocket","listText":"Fly rocket","text":"Fly 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">$BlackRock(BLK)$</a>loosing&nbsp;","text":"$BlackRock(BLK)$loosing","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2709f9f2bf81bd0b4442fbdc353138","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864404443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808684105,"gmtCreate":1627574001607,"gmtModify":1631884930820,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585911348022309","idStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSK\">$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$</a>Can up up up mah","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSK\">$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$</a>Can up up up mah","text":"$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$Can up up up mah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284f131702488d1f4ff611832e8efbf3","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808684105","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808637685,"gmtCreate":1627572743047,"gmtModify":1633758146715,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585911348022309","idStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wao&nbsp;","listText":"Wao&nbsp;","text":"Wao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808637685","repostId":"1179174010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179174010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627572541,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179174010?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179174010","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19.While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self","content":"<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆·马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于 8 月 19 日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周四通过推文证实，该公司将于 8 月 19 日举办人工智能日。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能活动的焦点可能是特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于测试阶段，该公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉领域的专家以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 23:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆·马斯克确认特斯拉人工智能日将于 8 月 19 日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周四通过推文证实，该公司将于 8 月 19 日举办人工智能日。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能活动的焦点可能是特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于测试阶段，该公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉领域的专家以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179174010","content_text":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\n\nTesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. \nWhile the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.\nThe focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.\nTesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801194126,"gmtCreate":1627486305965,"gmtModify":1633764507481,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585911348022309","idStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Then why it dropped&nbsp;","listText":"Then why it dropped&nbsp;","text":"Then why it dropped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801194126","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182616893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>  <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>  <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>  <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>另一个伟大的季度表明高价格可能是合理的。</li><li>服务业务的增长比产品更有价值。</li><li>苹果看起来是一家伟大的公司，但估值相当高。</li><li>这里没有必要买，但也没有理由卖。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p><p><blockquote>在又一个出色的季度之后，我对苹果 (AAPL) 所取得的成就、喜爱其产品的客户数量以及所有这些带来的财务业绩感到有点敬畏。我真的对这些盈利数字之大感到惊讶。我在这里的目标只是解释我将如何对苹果股票进行一系列估值，然后我们可以向后计算出不同股价水平“内置”了什么样的假设。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是世界上最好的生意吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>不亚于沃伦·巴菲特的权威称苹果“可能是世界上最好的企业”，原因很容易理解。苹果的主要产品是iPhone（带流行配件）、Mac电脑和iPad。</blockquote></p><p> For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我犯了一个错误，那就是通过将苹果产品的功能和规格与类似价位的其他产品进行比较来分析苹果产品。这是一个巨大的错误。相反，在这种情况下，正确的看法是人们对公司的感觉。它的产品不仅让人快乐，而且已经成为人们身份的一部分。我通常不会在分析文章中以这种方式奉承一家公司或其产品，但这对我想说的下一点很重要。</blockquote></p><p> Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果的产品受到客户的高度重视，其产品具有很高的消费者剩余（下图中的粉红色区域）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Inomics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，许多人愿意为他们从iPhone中获得的东西支付更多费用。这对苹果的业务来说意味着两件重要的事情。首先，随着时间的推移，他们有一些涨价的空间。其次，竞争对手很难以类似的价格提供其他令人满意的东西。这意味着苹果追求利润最大化策略，将价格保持在相对较低的水平（也就是说，你知道有多少已经拥有iPhone的人会选择不同的手机，即使他们不得不额外支付100美元？）.</blockquote></p><p> And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该业务的盈利能力仍然巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利看起来不错</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果第三季度业绩非常强劲，销售额接近 820 亿美元，净利润超过 210 亿美元。新闻报道谈到了同比增长，我认为苹果只是在克服“轻松调整”，因为一年前是新冠肺炎疫情和封锁最糟糕的时期。也就是说，我预计本季度本身就会疲软，随后的业绩不仅会出现异常低的基数，而且还会包括一些延迟购买，因为原本会提前购买的人“赶上”。</blockquote></p><p> Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p><p><blockquote>相反，我惊讶地发现苹果在2020年第三季度也有增长（苹果的财年在9月底结束，所以我们在第三季度）!该电子表格显示了过去三年第三季度的收入和盈利增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，来自公司收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p><p><blockquote>因此，正如我们所看到的，苹果实际上通过疫情深处的产品销售和服务增加了收入。因此，如果有一个“容易补偿”的问题，它仍然是一个增长的业务。同样有可能的是，如果没有旅行或在餐馆吃饭的选择，有可支配收入的人更有可能花在苹果产品上。</blockquote></p><p> This was just a great quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很棒的季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果盈利的简单模型</b></blockquote></p><p> The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p><p><blockquote>现在的工作是把这个放在上下文中。我使用苹果过去五年过去 12 个月的收益制作了这张图表，不仅显示了我们正在谈论的规模，还显示了我们正在谈论的增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p><p><blockquote>过去四个季度，净利润为 860 亿美元。但正如我们上面看到的，苹果将其销售分为两个部分，产品和服务。服务正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p><p><blockquote>苹果上一份年度报告中的这两个项目讲述了一个不断增长且利润越来越高的服务业务的故事：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在第一张图表中看到的，服务收入在三年内从近 400 亿美元增长到近 540 亿美元，在第二张图表中您可以看到，随着收入的增加，它的盈利能力越来越强，毛利率也在增加。这在软件和媒体工作中很常见；如果您的服务可以为 100 万客户支付账单，并且您可以免费添加另一个客户，那么每增加一个客户就是“纯利润”。我们可以看到，这些趋势在今年前三季度才有所增加：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p><p><blockquote>因此，所有这些都是为了说，我不想用 860 亿美元的数字来评估苹果的未来，而是想对“产品”和“服务”业务分别进行倍数。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p><p><blockquote>过去九个月，苹果的毛利率接近1180亿美元。在同一个 10 季度，他们报告的运营费用为 325 亿美元，所得税为 118 亿美元。如果我们将这些产品和服务假设视为独立的业务，并在它们之间分配这些费用和税收，我会按照它们在毛利率中的份额比例进行分配。因此，325亿美元的运营费用和118亿美元的所得税中，29%用于服务，71%用于产品。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的9个月里，这意味着产品将赚取510亿美元，服务将赚取250亿美元。我意识到这个粗略的数字比苹果报告的净利润高出 20 亿美元，但这没关系，因为我们在这里做了很多假设。</blockquote></p><p> In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p><p><blockquote>去年第四季度，苹果的收入仅略高于第三季度。所以要估算一整年，我只是把我九个月的数字乘以4/3。我得到了以下部分的全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> Products: $68 billion</p><p><blockquote>产品：680亿美元</blockquote></p><p> Services: $33 billion</p><p><blockquote>服务：330亿美元</blockquote></p><p> To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p><p><blockquote>为了得出估值，我想提供一系列倍数，让读者找到她认为最合理的数字：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用我的“信封背面”数字，我会很乐意以 16 倍的价格购买苹果的产品业务，25 倍的价格购买其服务，其收益率和企业价值为 1,088 美元 + 825 美元 = 1,913 美元。再加上苹果公司 890 亿美元的额外净现金，我有兴趣购买市值为 2002 亿美元的股票，比最近的价格低约 16%，即每股 123 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我开始担心，如果我们为产品业务支付超过 25 倍，为服务业务支付超过 33 倍，那么估值可能会超前。因此，在 1,700 美元 + 1089 美元 + 89 美元 = 28,780 亿美元或每股 173 美元的市值下，我认为今天支付这个价格太高了，无法获得良好的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p><p><blockquote>有很多事情可能会阻止苹果成为一项好的投资，但当看到这样的结果时，很难想象它们。我不会担心别人制造更好的手机。相反，我最担心的是“未知的未知”，比如一些技术变革，这使得苹果在客户满意度方面的优势与iPhone相比变得不那么相关。</blockquote></p><p> I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p><p><blockquote>我希望我能在这里对苹果的股价得出更坚定的买入/卖出结论，但基于一些合理的假设，我认为它的价值相当高。我有兴趣购买（或出售）低于 120 美元每股的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>  <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>  <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>  <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>另一个伟大的季度表明高价格可能是合理的。</li><li>服务业务的增长比产品更有价值。</li><li>苹果看起来是一家伟大的公司，但估值相当高。</li><li>这里没有必要买，但也没有理由卖。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p><p><blockquote>在又一个出色的季度之后，我对苹果 (AAPL) 所取得的成就、喜爱其产品的客户数量以及所有这些带来的财务业绩感到有点敬畏。我真的对这些盈利数字之大感到惊讶。我在这里的目标只是解释我将如何对苹果股票进行一系列估值，然后我们可以向后计算出不同股价水平“内置”了什么样的假设。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是世界上最好的生意吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>不亚于沃伦·巴菲特的权威称苹果“可能是世界上最好的企业”，原因很容易理解。苹果的主要产品是iPhone（带流行配件）、Mac电脑和iPad。</blockquote></p><p> For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我犯了一个错误，那就是通过将苹果产品的功能和规格与类似价位的其他产品进行比较来分析苹果产品。这是一个巨大的错误。相反，在这种情况下，正确的看法是人们对公司的感觉。它的产品不仅让人快乐，而且已经成为人们身份的一部分。我通常不会在分析文章中以这种方式奉承一家公司或其产品，但这对我想说的下一点很重要。</blockquote></p><p> Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果的产品受到客户的高度重视，其产品具有很高的消费者剩余（下图中的粉红色区域）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Inomics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，许多人愿意为他们从iPhone中获得的东西支付更多费用。这对苹果的业务来说意味着两件重要的事情。首先，随着时间的推移，他们有一些涨价的空间。其次，竞争对手很难以类似的价格提供其他令人满意的东西。这意味着苹果追求利润最大化策略，将价格保持在相对较低的水平（也就是说，你知道有多少已经拥有iPhone的人会选择不同的手机，即使他们不得不额外支付100美元？）.</blockquote></p><p> And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该业务的盈利能力仍然巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利看起来不错</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果第三季度业绩非常强劲，销售额接近 820 亿美元，净利润超过 210 亿美元。新闻报道谈到了同比增长，我认为苹果只是在克服“轻松调整”，因为一年前是新冠肺炎疫情和封锁最糟糕的时期。也就是说，我预计本季度本身就会疲软，随后的业绩不仅会出现异常低的基数，而且还会包括一些延迟购买，因为原本会提前购买的人“赶上”。</blockquote></p><p> Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p><p><blockquote>相反，我惊讶地发现苹果在2020年第三季度也有增长（苹果的财年在9月底结束，所以我们在第三季度）!该电子表格显示了过去三年第三季度的收入和盈利增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，来自公司收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p><p><blockquote>因此，正如我们所看到的，苹果实际上通过疫情深处的产品销售和服务增加了收入。因此，如果有一个“容易补偿”的问题，它仍然是一个增长的业务。同样有可能的是，如果没有旅行或在餐馆吃饭的选择，有可支配收入的人更有可能花在苹果产品上。</blockquote></p><p> This was just a great quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很棒的季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果盈利的简单模型</b></blockquote></p><p> The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p><p><blockquote>现在的工作是把这个放在上下文中。我使用苹果过去五年过去 12 个月的收益制作了这张图表，不仅显示了我们正在谈论的规模，还显示了我们正在谈论的增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p><p><blockquote>过去四个季度，净利润为 860 亿美元。但正如我们上面看到的，苹果将其销售分为两个部分，产品和服务。服务正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p><p><blockquote>苹果上一份年度报告中的这两个项目讲述了一个不断增长且利润越来越高的服务业务的故事：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在第一张图表中看到的，服务收入在三年内从近 400 亿美元增长到近 540 亿美元，在第二张图表中您可以看到，随着收入的增加，它的盈利能力越来越强，毛利率也在增加。这在软件和媒体工作中很常见；如果您的服务可以为 100 万客户支付账单，并且您可以免费添加另一个客户，那么每增加一个客户就是“纯利润”。我们可以看到，这些趋势在今年前三季度才有所增加：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格 10Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p><p><blockquote>因此，所有这些都是为了说，我不想用 860 亿美元的数字来评估苹果的未来，而是想对“产品”和“服务”业务分别进行倍数。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p><p><blockquote>过去九个月，苹果的毛利率接近1180亿美元。在同一个 10 季度，他们报告的运营费用为 325 亿美元，所得税为 118 亿美元。如果我们将这些产品和服务假设视为独立的业务，并在它们之间分配这些费用和税收，我会按照它们在毛利率中的份额比例进行分配。因此，325亿美元的运营费用和118亿美元的所得税中，29%用于服务，71%用于产品。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的9个月里，这意味着产品将赚取510亿美元，服务将赚取250亿美元。我意识到这个粗略的数字比苹果报告的净利润高出 20 亿美元，但这没关系，因为我们在这里做了很多假设。</blockquote></p><p> In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p><p><blockquote>去年第四季度，苹果的收入仅略高于第三季度。所以要估算一整年，我只是把我九个月的数字乘以4/3。我得到了以下部分的全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> Products: $68 billion</p><p><blockquote>产品：680亿美元</blockquote></p><p> Services: $33 billion</p><p><blockquote>服务：330亿美元</blockquote></p><p> To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p><p><blockquote>为了得出估值，我想提供一系列倍数，让读者找到她认为最合理的数字：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用我的“信封背面”数字，我会很乐意以 16 倍的价格购买苹果的产品业务，25 倍的价格购买其服务，其收益率和企业价值为 1,088 美元 + 825 美元 = 1,913 美元。再加上苹果公司 890 亿美元的额外净现金，我有兴趣购买市值为 2002 亿美元的股票，比最近的价格低约 16%，即每股 123 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我开始担心，如果我们为产品业务支付超过 25 倍，为服务业务支付超过 33 倍，那么估值可能会超前。因此，在 1,700 美元 + 1089 美元 + 89 美元 = 28,780 亿美元或每股 173 美元的市值下，我认为今天支付这个价格太高了，无法获得良好的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p><p><blockquote>有很多事情可能会阻止苹果成为一项好的投资，但当看到这样的结果时，很难想象它们。我不会担心别人制造更好的手机。相反，我最担心的是“未知的未知”，比如一些技术变革，这使得苹果在客户满意度方面的优势与iPhone相比变得不那么相关。</blockquote></p><p> I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p><p><blockquote>我希望我能在这里对苹果的股价得出更坚定的买入/卖出结论，但基于一些合理的假设，我认为它的价值相当高。我有兴趣购买（或出售）低于 120 美元每股的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150820500,"gmtCreate":1624893358700,"gmtModify":1633947343527,"author":{"id":"3585911348022309","authorId":"3585911348022309","name":"Winnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32dfd317c10bc44dc0abb67c912fa1a9","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585911348022309","idStr":"3585911348022309"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So nice !","listText":"So nice !","text":"So nice !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150820500","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，三家主要芯片制造商支持收购 Arm，英伟达股价上涨超过 5%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已经站出来表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年 9 月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以 400 亿美元现金和股票从软银集团 (SFTBY) 手中收购 Arm，此次交易将使软银成为英伟达最大的投资者。鉴于 Arm 是芯片行业领先的微处理器设计供应商，这笔交易引起了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛关注。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>上周末有报道称，Arm 的三个重要客户——博通 (AVGO)、Marvell (MRVL) 和台湾联发科 (2454.TW)——已认可这笔交易。我们无法立即联系到所有相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师 Atif Malk 在周日的一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对 Arm 英国业务的投资，英国很可能会批准合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，特别是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一份研究报告中写道：”随着美国继续对中国在科技竞赛中获胜采取咄咄逼人的态度，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入的协议。“如果英伟达能找到一种方法，让 Arm 中国子公司作为一个独立的实体保留下来，而无法访问任何（图形处理器或人工智能）知识产权，那么就有一条途径获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的几率为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，三家主要芯片制造商支持收购 Arm，英伟达股价上涨超过 5%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已经站出来表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年 9 月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以 400 亿美元现金和股票从软银集团 (SFTBY) 手中收购 Arm，此次交易将使软银成为英伟达最大的投资者。鉴于 Arm 是芯片行业领先的微处理器设计供应商，这笔交易引起了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛关注。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>上周末有报道称，Arm 的三个重要客户——博通 (AVGO)、Marvell (MRVL) 和台湾联发科 (2454.TW)——已认可这笔交易。我们无法立即联系到所有相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师 Atif Malk 在周日的一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对 Arm 英国业务的投资，英国很可能会批准合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，特别是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一份研究报告中写道：”随着美国继续对中国在科技竞赛中获胜采取咄咄逼人的态度，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入的协议。“如果英伟达能找到一种方法，让 Arm 中国子公司作为一个独立的实体保留下来，而无法访问任何（图形处理器或人工智能）知识产权，那么就有一条途径获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的几率为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}