Eelheis的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Eelheis

Eelheis

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2021-07-01

Wow

Meme stocks are mixed<blockquote>模因股票好坏参半</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Wow

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2021-06-27

Great

Jim Simons' Success Story: Net Worth, Education, and Top Quotes<blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的成功故事：净资产、教育和名言</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Cool

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2021-06-27

Nio

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-26

Wow

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2021-06-26

Noted

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2021-06-25

Wow

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2021-06-24

Nice

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2021-06-24

Nice

Bubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>泡泡茶连锁店在香港IPO筹集6.56亿美元</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Wow

Hong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>香港货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Nice

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2021-06-23

Nice

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2021-06-23

Nice

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2021-06-23

Nice

EVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到 2033 年将比预期更快地占据销售霸主地位</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Good

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2021-06-23

Nice

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2021-06-22

Great

Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>

2021-06-22

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

Gogogo

EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stocks are mixed<blockquote>模因股票好坏参半</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 21:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marin Software tumbled 28% while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Popped 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Marin Software 下跌 28%，而 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 则上涨 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53cdd2f88bdcea19bb1b9a2a8aecca2\" tg-width=\"352\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126887543","content_text":"Marin Software tumbled 28% while Bed Bath & Beyond Popped 20%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"GME":0.9,"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153600295,"gmtCreate":1625019586217,"gmtModify":1633945764774,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153600295","repostId":"1124855646","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124509262,"gmtCreate":1624770159456,"gmtModify":1633948797915,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124509262","repostId":"1180709423","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180709423","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624520262,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180709423?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jim Simons' Success Story: Net Worth, Education, and Top Quotes<blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的成功故事：净资产、教育和名言</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180709423","media":"Investopedia","summary":"James Harris Simons, or Jim Simons, is known as the \"Quant King\" and one of the greatest investors o","content":"<p>James Harris Simons, or Jim Simons, is known as the \"Quant King\" and one of the greatest investors of all time, after having started one of the most successfulquant fundsin the world, Renaissance Technologies (“Rentech”). Simons founded Rentech in 1982 at just 44 years old. He served as the chair and CEO until 2010 when he retired from his role. He still remains as a non-executive chair.</p><p><blockquote>詹姆斯·哈里斯·西蒙斯（James Harris Simons）或吉姆·西蒙斯（Jim Simons）被称为“量化之王”，也是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他创办了世界上最成功的量化基金之一——文艺复兴科技公司（Renaissance Technologies）。1982年，年仅44岁的西蒙斯创立了Rentech。他一直担任董事长兼首席执行官，直到2010年退休。他仍然是非执行主席。</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Jim Simons is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, due to the long-term returns of his quant fund Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion Fund.</li>  <li>Simons served as CEO and chair of Renaissance Technologies from its founding in 1982 until 2010 when he stepped down.&nbsp;Prior to a career in finance, Simons was also a successful mathematician and taught at MIT, Harvard, as well as served as the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University.</li>  <li>As of 2021,<i>Forbes</i>estimated Jim Simons' net worth at $23.5 billion, making him the 23rd richest person in the United States.</li> </ul> <b>Early Life and Education</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉姆·西蒙斯 (Jim Simons) 被称为有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，因为他的量化基金 Renaissance Technologies 及其旗舰基金 Medallion Fund 的长期回报。</li><li>从1982年文艺复兴技术公司成立到2010年卸任，西蒙斯一直担任该公司的首席执行官兼董事长。在从事金融工作之前，西蒙斯也是一名成功的数学家，曾在麻省理工学院、哈佛大学任教，并担任石溪大学数学系主任。</li><li>截至2021年，<i>福布斯</i>据估计，吉姆·西蒙斯的净资产为235亿美元，使他成为美国第23大富豪。</li></ul><b>早期生活与教育</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons was born in 1938 in Brookline, Mass., and discovered his love for mathematics at an early age. At the age of 14, Simons worked at a garden supply store as a floor sweeper after being demoted from a stock boy position due to his lack of memory of inventory location. However, Simons was astute and had the ambitious plan of becoming a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯1938年出生于马萨诸塞州布鲁克林。，并在很小的时候就发现了自己对数学的热爱。14 岁时，西蒙斯因缺乏库存位置记忆而从库存员职位降职后，在一家花园用品店担任扫地工。然而，西蒙斯很精明，有一个雄心勃勃的计划，成为麻省理工学院（MIT）的数学家。</blockquote></p><p> In 1955, Simons was accepted into MIT and majored in mathematics. Upon graduating, Simons studied at the University of California at Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics. His thesis focused on providing supporting proof of&nbsp;Berger's&nbsp;classification of the&nbsp;holonomy&nbsp;groups of&nbsp;Riemannian manifolds, and after just one year, he received his doctorate at the age of 23 in 1961.</p><p><blockquote>1955年，西蒙斯被麻省理工学院录取，主修数学。毕业后，西蒙斯在加州大学伯克利分校攻读数学博士学位。他的论文集中于为Berger对黎曼流形的完整群的分类提供支持证明，仅仅一年后，他于1961年23岁时获得了博士学位。</blockquote></p><p> Later, Simons worked on important mathematical theories, including the Chern-Simons form, which later played a role in topological quantum field theory. He had an early and successful career in mathematics, winning multiple awards, and later was inducted into the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.1</p><p><blockquote>后来，西蒙斯致力于重要的数学理论，包括陈恩-西蒙斯形式，该形式后来在拓扑量子场论中发挥了作用。他在数学领域有着早期而成功的职业生涯，赢得了多个奖项，后来被选入美国国家科学院。</blockquote></p><p> In 1964, Simons was recruited by The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), where he played a key role to break codes during the Vietnam War. Simons left IDA after four years and went on to teach mathematics at MIT and Harvard University.</p><p><blockquote>1964年，西蒙斯被国防分析研究所（IDA）招募，在越南战争期间，他在破解密码方面发挥了关键作用。四年后，西蒙斯离开了IDA，继续在麻省理工学院和哈佛大学教数学。</blockquote></p><p> Eventually, he was appointed to become the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University, where he helped develop the mathematics and physics programs while still being sought after by companies such as IBM for his consulting work. It wasn't until 1978 that he started delving into finance.</p><p><blockquote>最终，他被任命为石溪大学数学系的系主任，在那里他帮助开发了数学和物理项目，同时他的咨询工作仍然受到IBM等公司的追捧。直到1978年，他才开始钻研金融。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Philosophy &amp; Success Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理念与成功案例</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite already having successful careers as a prize-winning mathematician and a master code breaker for the IDA, Jim Simons decided to pursue a career in finance. In 1978, the mathematician started the hedge fund Monemetrics, which was the predecessor to the highly successful Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>尽管作为一名屡获殊荣的数学家和IDA的密码破译大师，吉姆·西蒙斯已经拥有了成功的职业生涯，但他还是决定从事金融职业。1978年，这位数学家创办了对冲基金Monemetrics，这是非常成功的文艺复兴技术的前身。</blockquote></p><p> Simons didn't think to apply mathematics to his hedge fund at first; however, over time, he realized he could use mathematical andstatisticalmodels to interpret data by looking for non-random movements in financial data to predict future returns.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯起初并没有想到将数学应用于他的对冲基金；然而，随着时间的推移，他意识到他可以使用数学和统计模型来解释数据，寻找财务数据的非随机变动来预测未来的回报。</blockquote></p><p> By 1988, Simons decided to solely usequantitative analysisto decide which trades to enter. Simons only sought experts in mathematics, data analysis, and many other scientific-related fields to work with him at the fund. The Quant King filled the fund with programmers, mathematicians, physicists, and cryptographers. The company thrived due to the complex mathematical formulas these scientists developed.</p><p><blockquote>到1988年，西蒙斯决定只使用定量分析来决定进入哪些交易。西蒙斯只寻求数学、数据分析和许多其他科学相关领域的专家与他一起在基金会工作。量化之王在基金中加入了程序员、数学家、物理学家和密码学家。由于这些科学家开发的复杂数学公式，该公司蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Since its inception, Renaissance Technologies' flagship fund, the Medallion hedge fund, has generated over $100 billion in trading profits with an average annual return of 71.8% before fees between 1994 and mid-2014.2 Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is only available for its employees and family members.</p><p><blockquote>自成立以来，Renaissance Technologies 的旗舰基金 Medallion 对冲基金已产生超过 1000 亿美元的交易利润，1994 年至 2014 年中期期间的平均年收益率为 71.8% 不幸的是，Medallion 基金仅适用于其员工和家庭成员。</blockquote></p><p>   $165 billion,&nbsp;Renaissance Technologies' assets under management as of 2020.  <b>Current Net Worth and Influence</b></p><p><blockquote>截至 2020 年，Renaissance Technologies 的资产管理规模为 1,650 亿美元。<b>当前净资产及影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons ranked 23rd on<i>Forbes</i>' wealthiest Americans list in 2020, with an estimated $23.5 billionnet worth. The Quant King also ranks first on the Forbes 2019 list of highest-earning hedge fund managers.3</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯排名第23位<i>福布斯</i>2020 年美国最富有的人名单，估计净资产为 235 亿美元。Quant King 还在福布斯 2019 年收入最高对冲基金经理榜单中排名第一。3</blockquote></p><p> Simons has a great deal of influence in the scientific world and co-founded the Simons Foundation with his wife, Marilyn Simons, in 1994. The Simons Foundation is devoted to supporting scientific research, education, and health. Simons has contributed over $2.7 billion of his wealth to this cause as well as to support autism research.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯在科学界有很大的影响力，并于1994年与妻子玛丽莲·西蒙斯共同创立了西蒙斯基金会。西蒙斯基金会致力于支持科学研究、教育和健康。西蒙斯已经为这项事业贡献了超过27亿美元的财富，并支持自闭症研究。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Simons founded Math for America, which aims to encourage mathematics and science teachers to remain in their roles and advance their teaching abilities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，西蒙斯创立了数学为美国，旨在鼓励数学和科学教师留在他们的角色，提高他们的教学能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Jim Simons Quotes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯语录</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is a big advocate of idea sharing and hiring the brightest people from various science-related fields. However, Simons frequently avoids the spotlight and doesn't give many interviews. The following quotes give just a sliver of insight into how he's managed and built Rentech.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是分享想法和雇佣各种科学相关领域最聪明的人的大力提倡者。然而，西蒙斯经常避开聚光灯，接受采访的次数不多。下面的引言只是对他如何管理和建立Rentech的一小部分见解。</blockquote></p><p> \"Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance...That made a lot of money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“优秀的员工。优秀的基础设施。开放的环境。每个人的薪酬大致基于整体表现……这赚了很多钱。”</blockquote></p><p> “We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们搜索历史数据，寻找我们没想到会随机发生的异常模式”。</blockquote></p><p> \"Past performance is the best predictor of success.\"</p><p><blockquote>“过去的表现是成功的最佳预测因素。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们有三个标准：如果它是公开交易的、有流动性的并且适合建模，我们就会交易它。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“有效市场理论是正确的，因为不存在严重的低效率。但我们关注的是规模可能很小、持续时间很短的异常现象。我们做出预测。然后，不久之后，我们会重新评估形势，修改预测和投资组合。我们整天都在这样做。”我们总是进进出出，进进出出。所以我们依靠活动来赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I disparage some for whom model-making was a part-time hobby,\" Simons once said as part of a speech at MIT in 2011. Simons made the remark when speaking about those who thought model-making was not useful in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>“我鄙视一些把制作模型作为兼职爱好的人，”西蒙斯曾在 2011 年麻省理工学院的一次演讲中说道。西蒙斯是在谈到那些认为模型制作在现实世界中没有用处的人时说这番话的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jim Simons FAQs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯常见问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Is Jim Simons the Most Successful Investor of All Time?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是有史以来最成功的投资者吗？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager and has been called the world's greatest investor by the<i>Wall Street Journal</i>. Although success is subjective, other investors such as Warren Buffett are considered amongthe world's greatest investors.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是最富有的对冲基金经理，被《金融时报》称为世界上最伟大的投资者<i>华尔街日报</i>虽然成功是主观的，但像沃伦·巴菲特这样的其他投资者被认为是世界上最伟大的投资者之一。</blockquote></p><p> What Is Jim Simons' Strategy?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的策略是什么？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons exclusively uses quantitative analysis to decide which trades to enter, based on market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯专门使用定量分析来根据市场效率低下来决定进入哪些交易。</blockquote></p><p> Can I Invest in the Medallion Fund?</p><p><blockquote>我可以投资奖章基金吗？</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is closed to outside investors and is only available to current and past employees of Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，Medallion 基金不对外部投资者开放，仅对 Renaissance Technologies 的现任和前任员工开放。</blockquote></p><p> Who Is the Richest Hedge Fund Manager?</p><p><blockquote>谁是最富有的对冲基金经理？</blockquote></p><p> According to<i>Forbes</i>, Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager in America.4</p><p><blockquote>根据<i>福布斯</i>吉姆·西蒙斯是美国最富有的对冲基金经理。</blockquote></p><p> How Much Do the Top Hedge Fund Managers Make?</p><p><blockquote>顶级对冲基金经理赚多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest data from<i>Forbes</i>, the top 10 hedge fund managers make well over $500 million a year, all the way up to $1 billion. Jim Simons is currently the richest hedge fund manager and made $1.6 billion in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新数据<i>福布斯</i>前 10 名对冲基金经理的年收入远远超过 5 亿美元，一直到 10 亿美元。吉姆·西蒙斯目前是最富有的对冲基金经理，2017年赚了16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> An unlikely mathematician turned Wall Street on its head back in 1982. Since then, Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies quant fund have left a legacy that will forever change the world of finance. The numbers are hard to argue with after logging the Medallion Fund's skyrocketing returns.</p><p><blockquote>1982年，一位不太可能的数学家让华尔街天翻地覆。从那时起，吉姆·西蒙斯和他的文艺复兴科技量化基金留下了一份将永远改变金融世界的遗产。在记录了 Medallion 基金飙升的回报后，这些数字很难反驳。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jim Simons' Success Story: Net Worth, Education, and Top Quotes<blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的成功故事：净资产、教育和名言</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJim Simons' Success Story: Net Worth, Education, and Top Quotes<blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的成功故事：净资产、教育和名言</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>James Harris Simons, or Jim Simons, is known as the \"Quant King\" and one of the greatest investors of all time, after having started one of the most successfulquant fundsin the world, Renaissance Technologies (“Rentech”). Simons founded Rentech in 1982 at just 44 years old. He served as the chair and CEO until 2010 when he retired from his role. He still remains as a non-executive chair.</p><p><blockquote>詹姆斯·哈里斯·西蒙斯（James Harris Simons）或吉姆·西蒙斯（Jim Simons）被称为“量化之王”，也是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他创办了世界上最成功的量化基金之一——文艺复兴科技公司（Renaissance Technologies）。1982年，年仅44岁的西蒙斯创立了Rentech。他一直担任董事长兼首席执行官，直到2010年退休。他仍然是非执行主席。</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Jim Simons is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, due to the long-term returns of his quant fund Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion Fund.</li>  <li>Simons served as CEO and chair of Renaissance Technologies from its founding in 1982 until 2010 when he stepped down.&nbsp;Prior to a career in finance, Simons was also a successful mathematician and taught at MIT, Harvard, as well as served as the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University.</li>  <li>As of 2021,<i>Forbes</i>estimated Jim Simons' net worth at $23.5 billion, making him the 23rd richest person in the United States.</li> </ul> <b>Early Life and Education</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉姆·西蒙斯 (Jim Simons) 被称为有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，因为他的量化基金 Renaissance Technologies 及其旗舰基金 Medallion Fund 的长期回报。</li><li>从1982年文艺复兴技术公司成立到2010年卸任，西蒙斯一直担任该公司的首席执行官兼董事长。在从事金融工作之前，西蒙斯也是一名成功的数学家，曾在麻省理工学院、哈佛大学任教，并担任石溪大学数学系主任。</li><li>截至2021年，<i>福布斯</i>据估计，吉姆·西蒙斯的净资产为235亿美元，使他成为美国第23大富豪。</li></ul><b>早期生活与教育</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons was born in 1938 in Brookline, Mass., and discovered his love for mathematics at an early age. At the age of 14, Simons worked at a garden supply store as a floor sweeper after being demoted from a stock boy position due to his lack of memory of inventory location. However, Simons was astute and had the ambitious plan of becoming a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯1938年出生于马萨诸塞州布鲁克林。，并在很小的时候就发现了自己对数学的热爱。14 岁时，西蒙斯因缺乏库存位置记忆而从库存员职位降职后，在一家花园用品店担任扫地工。然而，西蒙斯很精明，有一个雄心勃勃的计划，成为麻省理工学院（MIT）的数学家。</blockquote></p><p> In 1955, Simons was accepted into MIT and majored in mathematics. Upon graduating, Simons studied at the University of California at Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics. His thesis focused on providing supporting proof of&nbsp;Berger's&nbsp;classification of the&nbsp;holonomy&nbsp;groups of&nbsp;Riemannian manifolds, and after just one year, he received his doctorate at the age of 23 in 1961.</p><p><blockquote>1955年，西蒙斯被麻省理工学院录取，主修数学。毕业后，西蒙斯在加州大学伯克利分校攻读数学博士学位。他的论文集中于为Berger对黎曼流形的完整群的分类提供支持证明，仅仅一年后，他于1961年23岁时获得了博士学位。</blockquote></p><p> Later, Simons worked on important mathematical theories, including the Chern-Simons form, which later played a role in topological quantum field theory. He had an early and successful career in mathematics, winning multiple awards, and later was inducted into the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.1</p><p><blockquote>后来，西蒙斯致力于重要的数学理论，包括陈恩-西蒙斯形式，该形式后来在拓扑量子场论中发挥了作用。他在数学领域有着早期而成功的职业生涯，赢得了多个奖项，后来被选入美国国家科学院。</blockquote></p><p> In 1964, Simons was recruited by The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), where he played a key role to break codes during the Vietnam War. Simons left IDA after four years and went on to teach mathematics at MIT and Harvard University.</p><p><blockquote>1964年，西蒙斯被国防分析研究所（IDA）招募，在越南战争期间，他在破解密码方面发挥了关键作用。四年后，西蒙斯离开了IDA，继续在麻省理工学院和哈佛大学教数学。</blockquote></p><p> Eventually, he was appointed to become the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University, where he helped develop the mathematics and physics programs while still being sought after by companies such as IBM for his consulting work. It wasn't until 1978 that he started delving into finance.</p><p><blockquote>最终，他被任命为石溪大学数学系的系主任，在那里他帮助开发了数学和物理项目，同时他的咨询工作仍然受到IBM等公司的追捧。直到1978年，他才开始钻研金融。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Philosophy &amp; Success Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理念与成功案例</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite already having successful careers as a prize-winning mathematician and a master code breaker for the IDA, Jim Simons decided to pursue a career in finance. In 1978, the mathematician started the hedge fund Monemetrics, which was the predecessor to the highly successful Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>尽管作为一名屡获殊荣的数学家和IDA的密码破译大师，吉姆·西蒙斯已经拥有了成功的职业生涯，但他还是决定从事金融职业。1978年，这位数学家创办了对冲基金Monemetrics，这是非常成功的文艺复兴技术的前身。</blockquote></p><p> Simons didn't think to apply mathematics to his hedge fund at first; however, over time, he realized he could use mathematical andstatisticalmodels to interpret data by looking for non-random movements in financial data to predict future returns.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯起初并没有想到将数学应用于他的对冲基金；然而，随着时间的推移，他意识到他可以使用数学和统计模型来解释数据，寻找财务数据的非随机变动来预测未来的回报。</blockquote></p><p> By 1988, Simons decided to solely usequantitative analysisto decide which trades to enter. Simons only sought experts in mathematics, data analysis, and many other scientific-related fields to work with him at the fund. The Quant King filled the fund with programmers, mathematicians, physicists, and cryptographers. The company thrived due to the complex mathematical formulas these scientists developed.</p><p><blockquote>到1988年，西蒙斯决定只使用定量分析来决定进入哪些交易。西蒙斯只寻求数学、数据分析和许多其他科学相关领域的专家与他一起在基金会工作。量化之王在基金中加入了程序员、数学家、物理学家和密码学家。由于这些科学家开发的复杂数学公式，该公司蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Since its inception, Renaissance Technologies' flagship fund, the Medallion hedge fund, has generated over $100 billion in trading profits with an average annual return of 71.8% before fees between 1994 and mid-2014.2 Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is only available for its employees and family members.</p><p><blockquote>自成立以来，Renaissance Technologies 的旗舰基金 Medallion 对冲基金已产生超过 1000 亿美元的交易利润，1994 年至 2014 年中期期间的平均年收益率为 71.8% 不幸的是，Medallion 基金仅适用于其员工和家庭成员。</blockquote></p><p>   $165 billion,&nbsp;Renaissance Technologies' assets under management as of 2020.  <b>Current Net Worth and Influence</b></p><p><blockquote>截至 2020 年，Renaissance Technologies 的资产管理规模为 1,650 亿美元。<b>当前净资产及影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons ranked 23rd on<i>Forbes</i>' wealthiest Americans list in 2020, with an estimated $23.5 billionnet worth. The Quant King also ranks first on the Forbes 2019 list of highest-earning hedge fund managers.3</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯排名第23位<i>福布斯</i>2020 年美国最富有的人名单，估计净资产为 235 亿美元。Quant King 还在福布斯 2019 年收入最高对冲基金经理榜单中排名第一。3</blockquote></p><p> Simons has a great deal of influence in the scientific world and co-founded the Simons Foundation with his wife, Marilyn Simons, in 1994. The Simons Foundation is devoted to supporting scientific research, education, and health. Simons has contributed over $2.7 billion of his wealth to this cause as well as to support autism research.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯在科学界有很大的影响力，并于1994年与妻子玛丽莲·西蒙斯共同创立了西蒙斯基金会。西蒙斯基金会致力于支持科学研究、教育和健康。西蒙斯已经为这项事业贡献了超过27亿美元的财富，并支持自闭症研究。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Simons founded Math for America, which aims to encourage mathematics and science teachers to remain in their roles and advance their teaching abilities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，西蒙斯创立了数学为美国，旨在鼓励数学和科学教师留在他们的角色，提高他们的教学能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Jim Simons Quotes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯语录</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is a big advocate of idea sharing and hiring the brightest people from various science-related fields. However, Simons frequently avoids the spotlight and doesn't give many interviews. The following quotes give just a sliver of insight into how he's managed and built Rentech.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是分享想法和雇佣各种科学相关领域最聪明的人的大力提倡者。然而，西蒙斯经常避开聚光灯，接受采访的次数不多。下面的引言只是对他如何管理和建立Rentech的一小部分见解。</blockquote></p><p> \"Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance...That made a lot of money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“优秀的员工。优秀的基础设施。开放的环境。每个人的薪酬大致基于整体表现……这赚了很多钱。”</blockquote></p><p> “We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们搜索历史数据，寻找我们没想到会随机发生的异常模式”。</blockquote></p><p> \"Past performance is the best predictor of success.\"</p><p><blockquote>“过去的表现是成功的最佳预测因素。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们有三个标准：如果它是公开交易的、有流动性的并且适合建模，我们就会交易它。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“有效市场理论是正确的，因为不存在严重的低效率。但我们关注的是规模可能很小、持续时间很短的异常现象。我们做出预测。然后，不久之后，我们会重新评估形势，修改预测和投资组合。我们整天都在这样做。”我们总是进进出出，进进出出。所以我们依靠活动来赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I disparage some for whom model-making was a part-time hobby,\" Simons once said as part of a speech at MIT in 2011. Simons made the remark when speaking about those who thought model-making was not useful in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>“我鄙视一些把制作模型作为兼职爱好的人，”西蒙斯曾在 2011 年麻省理工学院的一次演讲中说道。西蒙斯是在谈到那些认为模型制作在现实世界中没有用处的人时说这番话的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jim Simons FAQs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯常见问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Is Jim Simons the Most Successful Investor of All Time?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是有史以来最成功的投资者吗？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager and has been called the world's greatest investor by the<i>Wall Street Journal</i>. Although success is subjective, other investors such as Warren Buffett are considered amongthe world's greatest investors.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是最富有的对冲基金经理，被《金融时报》称为世界上最伟大的投资者<i>华尔街日报</i>虽然成功是主观的，但像沃伦·巴菲特这样的其他投资者被认为是世界上最伟大的投资者之一。</blockquote></p><p> What Is Jim Simons' Strategy?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的策略是什么？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons exclusively uses quantitative analysis to decide which trades to enter, based on market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯专门使用定量分析来根据市场效率低下来决定进入哪些交易。</blockquote></p><p> Can I Invest in the Medallion Fund?</p><p><blockquote>我可以投资奖章基金吗？</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is closed to outside investors and is only available to current and past employees of Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，Medallion 基金不对外部投资者开放，仅对 Renaissance Technologies 的现任和前任员工开放。</blockquote></p><p> Who Is the Richest Hedge Fund Manager?</p><p><blockquote>谁是最富有的对冲基金经理？</blockquote></p><p> According to<i>Forbes</i>, Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager in America.4</p><p><blockquote>根据<i>福布斯</i>吉姆·西蒙斯是美国最富有的对冲基金经理。</blockquote></p><p> How Much Do the Top Hedge Fund Managers Make?</p><p><blockquote>顶级对冲基金经理赚多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest data from<i>Forbes</i>, the top 10 hedge fund managers make well over $500 million a year, all the way up to $1 billion. Jim Simons is currently the richest hedge fund manager and made $1.6 billion in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新数据<i>福布斯</i>前 10 名对冲基金经理的年收入远远超过 5 亿美元，一直到 10 亿美元。吉姆·西蒙斯目前是最富有的对冲基金经理，2017年赚了16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> An unlikely mathematician turned Wall Street on its head back in 1982. Since then, Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies quant fund have left a legacy that will forever change the world of finance. The numbers are hard to argue with after logging the Medallion Fund's skyrocketing returns.</p><p><blockquote>1982年，一位不太可能的数学家让华尔街天翻地覆。从那时起，吉姆·西蒙斯和他的文艺复兴科技量化基金留下了一份将永远改变金融世界的遗产。在记录了 Medallion 基金飙升的回报后，这些数字很难反驳。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030516/jim-simons-success-story-net-worth-education-top-quotes.asp\">Investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030516/jim-simons-success-story-net-worth-education-top-quotes.asp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180709423","content_text":"James Harris Simons, or Jim Simons, is known as the \"Quant King\" and one of the greatest investors of all time, after having started one of the most successfulquant fundsin the world, Renaissance Technologies (“Rentech”). Simons founded Rentech in 1982 at just 44 years old. He served as the chair and CEO until 2010 when he retired from his role. He still remains as a non-executive chair.\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nJim Simons is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, due to the long-term returns of his quant fund Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion Fund.\nSimons served as CEO and chair of Renaissance Technologies from its founding in 1982 until 2010 when he stepped down. Prior to a career in finance, Simons was also a successful mathematician and taught at MIT, Harvard, as well as served as the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University.\nAs of 2021,Forbesestimated Jim Simons' net worth at $23.5 billion, making him the 23rd richest person in the United States.\n\nEarly Life and Education\nJim Simons was born in 1938 in Brookline, Mass., and discovered his love for mathematics at an early age. At the age of 14, Simons worked at a garden supply store as a floor sweeper after being demoted from a stock boy position due to his lack of memory of inventory location. However, Simons was astute and had the ambitious plan of becoming a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).\nIn 1955, Simons was accepted into MIT and majored in mathematics. Upon graduating, Simons studied at the University of California at Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics. His thesis focused on providing supporting proof of Berger's classification of the holonomy groups of Riemannian manifolds, and after just one year, he received his doctorate at the age of 23 in 1961.\nLater, Simons worked on important mathematical theories, including the Chern-Simons form, which later played a role in topological quantum field theory. He had an early and successful career in mathematics, winning multiple awards, and later was inducted into the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.1\nIn 1964, Simons was recruited by The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), where he played a key role to break codes during the Vietnam War. Simons left IDA after four years and went on to teach mathematics at MIT and Harvard University.\nEventually, he was appointed to become the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University, where he helped develop the mathematics and physics programs while still being sought after by companies such as IBM for his consulting work. It wasn't until 1978 that he started delving into finance.\nInvestment Philosophy & Success Story\nDespite already having successful careers as a prize-winning mathematician and a master code breaker for the IDA, Jim Simons decided to pursue a career in finance. In 1978, the mathematician started the hedge fund Monemetrics, which was the predecessor to the highly successful Renaissance Technologies.\nSimons didn't think to apply mathematics to his hedge fund at first; however, over time, he realized he could use mathematical andstatisticalmodels to interpret data by looking for non-random movements in financial data to predict future returns.\nBy 1988, Simons decided to solely usequantitative analysisto decide which trades to enter. Simons only sought experts in mathematics, data analysis, and many other scientific-related fields to work with him at the fund. The Quant King filled the fund with programmers, mathematicians, physicists, and cryptographers. The company thrived due to the complex mathematical formulas these scientists developed.\nSince its inception, Renaissance Technologies' flagship fund, the Medallion hedge fund, has generated over $100 billion in trading profits with an average annual return of 71.8% before fees between 1994 and mid-2014.2 Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is only available for its employees and family members.\n\n $165 billion, Renaissance Technologies' assets under management as of 2020.\n\nCurrent Net Worth and Influence\nJim Simons ranked 23rd onForbes' wealthiest Americans list in 2020, with an estimated $23.5 billionnet worth. The Quant King also ranks first on the Forbes 2019 list of highest-earning hedge fund managers.3\nSimons has a great deal of influence in the scientific world and co-founded the Simons Foundation with his wife, Marilyn Simons, in 1994. The Simons Foundation is devoted to supporting scientific research, education, and health. Simons has contributed over $2.7 billion of his wealth to this cause as well as to support autism research.\nAdditionally, Simons founded Math for America, which aims to encourage mathematics and science teachers to remain in their roles and advance their teaching abilities.\nJim Simons Quotes\nJim Simons is a big advocate of idea sharing and hiring the brightest people from various science-related fields. However, Simons frequently avoids the spotlight and doesn't give many interviews. The following quotes give just a sliver of insight into how he's managed and built Rentech.\n\"Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance...That made a lot of money.\"\n“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”\n\"Past performance is the best predictor of success.\"\n\"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it.\"\n\"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money.\"\n\"I disparage some for whom model-making was a part-time hobby,\" Simons once said as part of a speech at MIT in 2011. Simons made the remark when speaking about those who thought model-making was not useful in the real world.\nJim Simons FAQs\nIs Jim Simons the Most Successful Investor of All Time?\nJim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager and has been called the world's greatest investor by theWall Street Journal. Although success is subjective, other investors such as Warren Buffett are considered amongthe world's greatest investors.\nWhat Is Jim Simons' Strategy?\nJim Simons exclusively uses quantitative analysis to decide which trades to enter, based on market inefficiencies.\nCan I Invest in the Medallion Fund?\nUnfortunately, the Medallion fund is closed to outside investors and is only available to current and past employees of Renaissance Technologies.\nWho Is the Richest Hedge Fund Manager?\nAccording toForbes, Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager in America.4\nHow Much Do the Top Hedge Fund Managers Make?\nAccording to the latest data fromForbes, the top 10 hedge fund managers make well over $500 million a year, all the way up to $1 billion. Jim Simons is currently the richest hedge fund manager and made $1.6 billion in 2017.\nThe Bottom Line\nAn unlikely mathematician turned Wall Street on its head back in 1982. Since then, Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies quant fund have left a legacy that will forever change the world of finance. The numbers are hard to argue with after logging the Medallion Fund's skyrocketing returns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500600,"gmtCreate":1624770122800,"gmtModify":1633948799199,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500600","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500987,"gmtCreate":1624770104149,"gmtModify":1633948799687,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nio","listText":"Nio","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500987","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125569813,"gmtCreate":1624680630332,"gmtModify":1633949644334,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125569813","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125697169,"gmtCreate":1624670688251,"gmtModify":1633949847320,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125697169","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122014386,"gmtCreate":1624587928745,"gmtModify":1633950857526,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122014386","repostId":"1160571601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128924007,"gmtCreate":1624498857509,"gmtModify":1634005238263,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128924007","repostId":"1135246082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128925196,"gmtCreate":1624498832615,"gmtModify":1634005238734,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128925196","repostId":"1178700711","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178700711","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624497882,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178700711?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:24","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Bubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>泡泡茶连锁店在香港IPO筹集6.56亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178700711","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 millio","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 million) after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top of a marketed range, the latest ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——中国珍珠奶茶连锁店奈雪的控股有限公司在其香港首次公开募股的定价处于市场范围的最高水平后，筹集了50.9亿港元（6.56亿美元），这是最新的……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>泡泡茶连锁店在香港IPO筹集6.56亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>泡泡茶连锁店在香港IPO筹集6.56亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 million) after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top of a marketed range, the latest ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——中国珍珠奶茶连锁店奈雪的控股有限公司在其香港首次公开募股的定价处于市场范围的最高水平后，筹集了50.9亿港元（6.56亿美元），这是最新的……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178700711","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 million) after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top of a marketed range, the latest company to ride a resurgence of listings in the Asian financial hub.\nNayuki, whose popular fresh-fruit teas include cheese-foam-topped beverages, has priced 257.3 million shares at HK$19.8 each, according to terms of the deal obtained by Bloomberg News. It had marketed the shares at HK$17.2 to HK$19.8 apiece.\nThe teahouse operator is testing the waters after Angelalign Technology Inc., a maker of clear orthodontic braces, heralded a revival in Hong Kong’s IPO market with a massive 132% pop on its June 16 debut, becoming one of this year’s most popular offerings in the city.\nFirst-time share sales in Hong Kong are ticking up after a period of muted activity, as an easing of the global tech selloff has created a more favorable backdrop for debuts. At least 13 companies are currently in the lineup to go public, compared to only two deals priced in April and four in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.\nStill, not every IPO is getting a warm welcome as investors have become more selective amid higher volatility in markets and growing expectations of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy. China Youran Dairy Group Ltd. and CARsgen Therapeutics Holdings Ltd. slumped 12% and 9%, respectively, in their trading debuts last Friday.\nNayuki’s share sale attracted five cornerstone investors who agreed to subscribe for about $155 million of stock. They are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International, according to the prospectus.\nThe retail portion of Nayuki’s IPO was more than 400 times oversubscribed, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, citing people it didn’t identify.\nThe top-of-the-range pricing values the bubble tea chain at about $4.38 billion, up from the $2 billion in its last funding round. It originally planned to file for an IPO in the U.S. in February last year, Bloomberg News reported, but eventually opted for Hong Kong.\nThe Shenzhen-based firm sells fresh-fruit teas, cold-brew beverages and baked goods. It recorded losses of 203 million yuan in 2020 and 40 million yuan in the previous year, according to its prospectus. Revenue rose 22% year-on-year to 3.1 billion yuan.\nNayuki plans to use proceeds from the offering to expand its teahouse network, deepen market penetration and strengthen its supply chain. It had 491 flagship Nayuki outlets at the end of last year, including 489 in mainland China and one each in Hong Kong and Japan.\nNayuki’s shares are set to start trading in Hong Kong on June 30. JPMorgan Chase & Co., CMB International Capital Ltd. and Huatai International Ltd. are joint sponsors for the listing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128922925,"gmtCreate":1624498793567,"gmtModify":1634005239476,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128922925","repostId":"1149998058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149998058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624498064,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149998058?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>香港货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149998058","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially f","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially for a U.S. initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The company, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--据知情人士透露，香港按需物流和配送公司货拉拉已秘密申请在美国首次公开募股。该公司，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>香港货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>香港货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 09:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially for a U.S. initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The company, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--据知情人士透露，香港按需物流和配送公司货拉拉已秘密申请在美国首次公开募股。该公司，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149998058","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially for a U.S. initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe company, also known as Huolala in China, is looking to raise at least $1 billion in the share sale, the people said. Details of the offering including the fundraising amount are still subject to change depending on investor demand, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.\n“The company is paying close attention to capital markets but has no specific timeline and plan for going public,” a representative for Lalamove said in a text message in response to Bloomberg News query.\nLalamove is among a number of logistics companies going public this year as the coronavirus-induced lockdowns fueled a surge in e-commerce demand. Chinese trucking startup Full Truck Alliance Co. this week raised $1.6 billion in its U.S. IPO and climbed 13% in its debut. E-commerce giant JD.com Inc’s shipping and delivery unit JD Logistics Inc. went public in Hong Kong last month in a $3.6 billion share sale.\nFounded in 2013 by Stanford graduate and former professional poker player Chow Shing-yuk, Lalamove provides van-hailing and courier services on demand. It operates in over 20 markets across Asia, Latin America and the U.S. with a pool of more than 700,000 driver partners, according to its website. Lalamove’s business is anchored in China.\nLast year, Lalamove raised $515 million from investors including Sequoia Capital China, Hillhouse Capital and Shunwei Capital. It had been seeking a valuation of $8 billion at the time, Bloomberg News reported.\nIts smaller rival GogoX is weighing a Hong Kong IPO that could raise $400 million to $500 million as soon as this year, people familiar with the matter said in March.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128928498,"gmtCreate":1624498746114,"gmtModify":1634005240316,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128928498","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123956504,"gmtCreate":1624407293608,"gmtModify":1634006651990,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123956504","repostId":"1108697564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123956310,"gmtCreate":1624407273230,"gmtModify":1634006652600,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123956310","repostId":"2145737065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123958136,"gmtCreate":1624407255225,"gmtModify":1634006653525,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123958136","repostId":"1123710128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123710128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624406277,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1123710128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到 2033 年将比预期更快地占据销售霸主地位</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123710128","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than prev","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——随着更严格的法规和日益增长的兴趣推动了对零排放的需求，全球电动汽车的霸主地位将于2033年到来，比之前预期提前了五年……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到 2033 年将比预期更快地占据销售霸主地位</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到 2033 年将比预期更快地占据销售霸主地位</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 07:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——随着更严格的法规和日益增长的兴趣推动了对零排放的需求，全球电动汽车的霸主地位将于2033年到来，比之前预期提前了五年……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123710128","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transportation, according to a new study.\nConsultant Ernst & Young LLP now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the U.S. -- the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1% of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool.\nStrict government mandates to combat climate change are driving demand in Europe and China, where automakers and consumers face rising financial penalties for selling and buying traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled cars. EY sees Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the U.S. in 2036, EY predicts.\nThe U.S. lags the world’s other leading markets because fuel-economy regulations were eased during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and proposed spending $174 billion to accelerate the shift to EVs, including installing a half-million charging stations across the country.\n“The regulatory environment from the Biden administration we view as a big contributor, because he has ambitious targets,” Randy Miller, EY’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, said in an interview. “That impact in the Americas will have a supercharging effect.”\nThere also is a growing consumer appetite for EVs, from Tesla Inc.’s hot-selling Model 3 to new electric models coming from legacy automakers, such as General Motors Co.’s battery-powered Hummer truck and Ford Motor Co.’s F-150 Lightning pickup. Investments in battery powered models now top $230 billion from the world’s automakers, according to consultant AlixPartners.\n‘More Appealing’\n“Many more models that are much more appealing are coming out,” Miller said. “You factor that with the incentives, and those are the raw ingredients that are driving this more optimistic view.”\nThe EY study also sees the millennial generation, now in their late 20s and 30s, as helping to propel EV adoption. Those consumers, driven by a coronavirus-influenced rejection of ride-sharing and public transportation, are embracing car ownership. And 30% of them want to drive an EV, Miller said.\n“The view from the millennials that we’re seeing is clearly more inclination to want to buy EVs,” Miller said.\nAdditionally, the combination of government purchase incentives for EVs and proposed bans on internal combustion engines in cities and states are accelerating the adoption of battery-powered vehicles.\nEurope is forecast to lead in EV sales volumes until 2031, when China will become the world’s top market for electric vehicles.\nVehicles powered by gasoline and diesel are still predicted to make up around two-thirds of all light vehicle registrations in 2025, but that will mark a 12 percentage-point decrease from five years earlier. By 2030, EY predicts that non-EV cars will account for less than half of overall light vehicle registrations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123953317,"gmtCreate":1624407228739,"gmtModify":1634006655532,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123953317","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123959151,"gmtCreate":1624407206973,"gmtModify":1634006656358,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123959151","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120208962,"gmtCreate":1624323484856,"gmtModify":1634007841072,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120208962","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应引发的火焰和硫磺中，我们注意到有两个切实的变化，尽管不太引人注目：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将 IOER 和 RRP 利率均上调 5 个基点（美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测，而花旗、牛津经济、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行预测利率不会变化是错误的），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的 0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如 Curvature Securities 回购大师 Scott Skyrm 上周所写，“显然美联储打算将隔夜利率推至零以上，并耗尽 RRP 工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要实现的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对隔夜费率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么呢？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的增加应该会使每日联邦基金利率上升5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。再加上建议零售价上涨 5 个基点，GC 应该会上涨 5 个基点，而且确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如 Skyrm 警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术性调整无助于缓解 RRP 数量：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%，建议零售价利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入了建议零售价。好吧，如果市场回购利率和建议零售价利率都高出 5 个基点，就没有理由从建议零售价中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为 0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或存放在那里的创纪录的五万亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，boy 是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就创纪录地飙升了 50%，作为政府支持企业，激增至惊人的 7,560 亿美元（周五收盘价为 7,470 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，充斥美联储的RRP设施和清空储备几乎不是美联储的意图，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购大师（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的尸检中写道，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价贷款将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储，无处可借贷）转变为负债约束（存款流失，除了货币市场，无处可替代</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，之前 0.00% 的建议零售价率并没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性、超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储正在提供与数万亿美元票据提供的利率相比的慷慨收益率，我们即将看到一夜之间货币市场的巨大变化，数万亿美元的资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价中。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如波萨尔所说，“RRP 设施开始对储备进行消毒……未来还会有更多储备。”正如德意志银行解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误一样，对波萨尔来说，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>该公司犯了一个政策错误--只是这次是在技术利率方面--取消了准备金，因为 “在严格来说没有必要提高 RRP 设施的利率时提高利率是一回事，而将利率提高 ‘过度 ’又是另一回事--正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天我们一年连一个基点都拿不到；从最值得信赖的交易对手那里以五个基点获得无尽的纸张是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为 0 个基点太低，但目前还不是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>波萨尔警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>会扰乱“奇点”的状态</b>“就像寻求热量的导弹一样，货币市场投资者移动数千亿美元，进行急剧的 90 度转弯，寻找零区间哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在 5 个基点的情况下，货币基金有动力交易所有国库券并将现金存放在 RRP 设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下所示，6 个月内票据收益率低于 5 个基点，<b>货币基金有超过2万亿美元的钞票。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人则有买入的动机： 那些存款一直被银行 “容忍 ”的机构，到目前为止赚取零利息，他们有动机收获票据曲线提供的 0-5 个基点范围。将现金放在账单的基点比存款为零要好。<b>因此，准备金的冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个基本上被动的工具转变为一个主动的工具，该工具为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限，该工具“吸走”银行决定保留的存款。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷的策略师建议进行以下 “极端 ”思维实验： 目前银行的大部分 “Covid-19 ”存款都进入了利率较高的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存入银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/n RRP。简单地说，虽然之前美联储为银行提供了一个方便的地方来存放准备金，但现在它将积极抽干准备金，以至于我们可能会陷入另一场 2019 年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己陷入了困境<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使他们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察美联储冲销的后果。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与 2019 年的回购危机相似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以处理资金流出，<b>一些债券重的银行不能。</b>因此，佐尔坦预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从 FHLB 借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场上放贷，因为建议零售价机制将准备金从它们手中抽走，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键的资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降至之前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如佐尔坦总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”--事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份挽回了自己，当时它扩大了建议零售价的使用，但没有使其受到负债约束，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这很有效——上周三，<b>美联储将 “无限 ”数量变成了 “免费资金”，并开始对储备进行冲销。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商 (DoLR) 学习交易艺术，犯下非受迫性错误——如果美联储用定价过高的 o/n RRP 工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期额度增加流动性……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过5个基点支付数万亿美元的准备金，美联储只是埋下了下一次流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应引发的火焰和硫磺中，我们注意到有两个切实的变化，尽管不太引人注目：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将 IOER 和 RRP 利率均上调 5 个基点（美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测，而花旗、牛津经济、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行预测利率不会变化是错误的），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的 0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如 Curvature Securities 回购大师 Scott Skyrm 上周所写，“显然美联储打算将隔夜利率推至零以上，并耗尽 RRP 工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要实现的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对隔夜费率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么呢？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的增加应该会使每日联邦基金利率上升5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。再加上建议零售价上涨 5 个基点，GC 应该会上涨 5 个基点，而且确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如 Skyrm 警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术性调整无助于缓解 RRP 数量：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%，建议零售价利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入了建议零售价。好吧，如果市场回购利率和建议零售价利率都高出 5 个基点，就没有理由从建议零售价中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为 0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或存放在那里的创纪录的五万亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，boy 是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就创纪录地飙升了 50%，作为政府支持企业，激增至惊人的 7,560 亿美元（周五收盘价为 7,470 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，充斥美联储的RRP设施和清空储备几乎不是美联储的意图，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购大师（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的尸检中写道，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价贷款将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储，无处可借贷）转变为负债约束（存款流失，除了货币市场，无处可替代</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，之前 0.00% 的建议零售价率并没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性、超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储正在提供与数万亿美元票据提供的利率相比的慷慨收益率，我们即将看到一夜之间货币市场的巨大变化，数万亿美元的资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价中。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如波萨尔所说，“RRP 设施开始对储备进行消毒……未来还会有更多储备。”正如德意志银行解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误一样，对波萨尔来说，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>该公司犯了一个政策错误--只是这次是在技术利率方面--取消了准备金，因为 “在严格来说没有必要提高 RRP 设施的利率时提高利率是一回事，而将利率提高 ‘过度 ’又是另一回事--正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天我们一年连一个基点都拿不到；从最值得信赖的交易对手那里以五个基点获得无尽的纸张是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为 0 个基点太低，但目前还不是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>波萨尔警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>会扰乱“奇点”的状态</b>“就像寻求热量的导弹一样，货币市场投资者移动数千亿美元，进行急剧的 90 度转弯，寻找零区间哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在 5 个基点的情况下，货币基金有动力交易所有国库券并将现金存放在 RRP 设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下所示，6 个月内票据收益率低于 5 个基点，<b>货币基金有超过2万亿美元的钞票。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人则有买入的动机： 那些存款一直被银行 “容忍 ”的机构，到目前为止赚取零利息，他们有动机收获票据曲线提供的 0-5 个基点范围。将现金放在账单的基点比存款为零要好。<b>因此，准备金的冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个基本上被动的工具转变为一个主动的工具，该工具为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限，该工具“吸走”银行决定保留的存款。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷的策略师建议进行以下 “极端 ”思维实验： 目前银行的大部分 “Covid-19 ”存款都进入了利率较高的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存入银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/n RRP。简单地说，虽然之前美联储为银行提供了一个方便的地方来存放准备金，但现在它将积极抽干准备金，以至于我们可能会陷入另一场 2019 年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己陷入了困境<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使他们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察美联储冲销的后果。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与 2019 年的回购危机相似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以处理资金流出，<b>一些债券重的银行不能。</b>因此，佐尔坦预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从 FHLB 借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场上放贷，因为建议零售价机制将准备金从它们手中抽走，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键的资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降至之前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如佐尔坦总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”--事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份挽回了自己，当时它扩大了建议零售价的使用，但没有使其受到负债约束，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这很有效——上周三，<b>美联储将 “无限 ”数量变成了 “免费资金”，并开始对储备进行冲销。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商 (DoLR) 学习交易艺术，犯下非受迫性错误——如果美联储用定价过高的 o/n RRP 工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期额度增加流动性……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过5个基点支付数万亿美元的准备金，美联储只是埋下了下一次流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120203796,"gmtCreate":1624323452715,"gmtModify":1634007842536,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120203796","repostId":"1164918098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120203371,"gmtCreate":1624323433293,"gmtModify":1634007843150,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120203371","repostId":"1136791321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136791321","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624282996,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1136791321?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136791321","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.","content":"<p>(June 21)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月21日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e7cf675e122ca02f2d220cde025a88\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 21)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月21日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e7cf675e122ca02f2d220cde025a88\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136791321","content_text":"(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":125569813,"gmtCreate":1624680630332,"gmtModify":1633949644334,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125569813","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123959151,"gmtCreate":1624407206973,"gmtModify":1634006656358,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123959151","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120200731,"gmtCreate":1624323393123,"gmtModify":1634007844365,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120200731","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164417293,"gmtCreate":1624233317812,"gmtModify":1634009282280,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164417293","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164907649,"gmtCreate":1624164008481,"gmtModify":1634009938156,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool&nbsp;","listText":"Cool&nbsp;","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164907649","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153600295,"gmtCreate":1625019586217,"gmtModify":1633945764774,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153600295","repostId":"1124855646","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500600,"gmtCreate":1624770122800,"gmtModify":1633948799199,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500600","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500987,"gmtCreate":1624770104149,"gmtModify":1633948799687,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nio","listText":"Nio","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500987","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. 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