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2021-12-24

Woww

Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>

2021-12-24

Great!

Tesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote>

2021-12-21

Ouch

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2021-12-20

Yeah

Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>

2021-12-20

Nice

Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>

2021-09-22

Tesla to rise more!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-22

Market correction?

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2021-09-22

Like pls

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2021-09-21

Sigh

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2021-06-17

Nice

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10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183390970","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side t","content":"<p>Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街继续支持苹果股票的牛市。我们回顾了最近的卖方观点，并评估现在是否是逢低买入 AAPL 的时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below&nbsp;my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的股票在过去几周里上下波动，现在的交易价格约为每股 8 美元，低于我最近的 “削减头寸 ”价位。但缺乏动力并没有困扰华尔街分析师，他们越来越相信苹果的市值将在未来 12 个月内达到 3 万亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>今天，苹果专家浏览了最近发布的卖方报告，并评估了库比蒂诺公司股票日益强劲的牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street moves up the bar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街提高了标准</b></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价在 11 月底和 12 月初的强劲反弹，因此发生了一件独特的事情： 尽管华尔街一致给予该股 “强力买入 ”评级，但平均目标价已跌破苹果公司的市值。</blockquote></p><p> One of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>可能会发生两种情况之一：要么分析师需要根据估值过高而下调评级，要么提高价格目标以迎头赶上。后者最终发生了，这表明对进一步上行机会的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts&nbsp;had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>上周， 我们指出， 一波分析师认为苹果公司的市值在 3 万亿美元或以上。在买方方面，Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster 甚至呼吁以元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车的机会为由，提供 4 万亿美元的公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent report&nbsp;came in&nbsp;from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>花旗于 12 月 22 日发布了最新报告。分析师吉姆·苏瓦 (Jim Suva) 将目标价上调了 30 美元至 200 美元，理由是未来的一些积极发展：（1）本财年对产品和服务的需求有弹性；（2）混合现实机会没有充分反映在股价中。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，华尔街正在忽略将 AAPL 股价从两周前的 180 美元推至最近 160 美元高位的短期阻力。分析师表示，看跌压力似乎成为了以更低价格购买苹果股票的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is it time to buy AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是时候购买 AAPL 了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Late last week,I offered a plan of action&nbsp;for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:</p><p><blockquote>上周晚些时候， 我为那些希望逢低买入苹果股票的人提供了一个行动计划。首先，我仍然认为 AAPL 是对没有任何风险敞口的成长型投资组合的一个很好的补充。否则，我认为投资者应该：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.</li>  <li>“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.</li> </ul> The chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果该股表现逊于纳斯达克 5 个百分点，请考虑增持 AAPL——我估计在 160 美元的股价下可能会发生这种情况。</li><li>在股价跌破 150 美元的可能性较小的情况下，“倒车”。</li></ul>下图显示，在 12 月 22 日盘前，自我发表 “削减头寸 ”文章以来，AAPL 已落后纳斯达克指数约 2 个百分点。因此，购买 AAPL 的理由正在慢慢增强，但未来一些表现不佳仍然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f898e47d3d3dcee96368c621537b62\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL和IXIC性能。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街继续支持苹果股票的牛市。我们回顾了最近的卖方观点，并评估现在是否是逢低买入 AAPL 的时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below&nbsp;my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的股票在过去几周里上下波动，现在的交易价格约为每股 8 美元，低于我最近的 “削减头寸 ”价位。但缺乏动力并没有困扰华尔街分析师，他们越来越相信苹果的市值将在未来 12 个月内达到 3 万亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>今天，苹果专家浏览了最近发布的卖方报告，并评估了库比蒂诺公司股票日益强劲的牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street moves up the bar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街提高了标准</b></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价在 11 月底和 12 月初的强劲反弹，因此发生了一件独特的事情： 尽管华尔街一致给予该股 “强力买入 ”评级，但平均目标价已跌破苹果公司的市值。</blockquote></p><p> One of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>可能会发生两种情况之一：要么分析师需要根据估值过高而下调评级，要么提高价格目标以迎头赶上。后者最终发生了，这表明对进一步上行机会的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts&nbsp;had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>上周， 我们指出， 一波分析师认为苹果公司的市值在 3 万亿美元或以上。在买方方面，Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster 甚至呼吁以元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车的机会为由，提供 4 万亿美元的公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent report&nbsp;came in&nbsp;from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>花旗于 12 月 22 日发布了最新报告。分析师吉姆·苏瓦 (Jim Suva) 将目标价上调了 30 美元至 200 美元，理由是未来的一些积极发展：（1）本财年对产品和服务的需求有弹性；（2）混合现实机会没有充分反映在股价中。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，华尔街正在忽略将 AAPL 股价从两周前的 180 美元推至最近 160 美元高位的短期阻力。分析师表示，看跌压力似乎成为了以更低价格购买苹果股票的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is it time to buy AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是时候购买 AAPL 了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Late last week,I offered a plan of action&nbsp;for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:</p><p><blockquote>上周晚些时候， 我为那些希望逢低买入苹果股票的人提供了一个行动计划。首先，我仍然认为 AAPL 是对没有任何风险敞口的成长型投资组合的一个很好的补充。否则，我认为投资者应该：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.</li>  <li>“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.</li> </ul> The chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果该股表现逊于纳斯达克 5 个百分点，请考虑增持 AAPL——我估计在 160 美元的股价下可能会发生这种情况。</li><li>在股价跌破 150 美元的可能性较小的情况下，“倒车”。</li></ul>下图显示，在 12 月 22 日盘前，自我发表 “削减头寸 ”文章以来，AAPL 已落后纳斯达克指数约 2 个百分点。因此，购买 AAPL 的理由正在慢慢增强，但未来一些表现不佳仍然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f898e47d3d3dcee96368c621537b62\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL和IXIC性能。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-wall-street-lines-up-behind-3-trillion-bull-case\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-wall-street-lines-up-behind-3-trillion-bull-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183390970","content_text":"Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.\nApple stock has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.\nToday, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.\nFigure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.\nWall Street moves up the bar\nBecause Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.\nOne of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.\nLast week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.\nThe most recent report came in from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.\nThe bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.\nIs it time to buy AAPL?\nLate last week,I offered a plan of action for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:\n\nConsider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.\n“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.\n\nThe chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.\nFigure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698137458,"gmtCreate":1640315914682,"gmtModify":1640316523899,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586323389590318","idStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698137458","repostId":"1108174302","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108174302","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640315277,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108174302?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108174302","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to delive","content":"<p><div> It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to deliver the gift of high returns to its investors. The leader of the electric vehicle (EV) race has ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这是艰难的一个月，但随着假期的迅速临近，特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）准备为投资者带来高回报。电动汽车（EV）竞赛的领导者……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to deliver the gift of high returns to its investors. The leader of the electric vehicle (EV) race has ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这是艰难的一个月，但随着假期的迅速临近，特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）准备为投资者带来高回报。电动汽车（EV）竞赛的领导者……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","SYAAF":"Syrah Resources Ltd."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108174302","content_text":"It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to deliver the gift of high returns to its investors. The leader of the electric vehicle (EV) race has finally regained the momentum that it lost early in December. Indeed, Tesla stock has been rising all week with only minimal downticks. Despite the growing number of analyst reports that predict a year of slower growth for the EV sector, recent developments have helped push Tesla stock back onto the road. Most recently, the company announced a new deal that promises to help streamline battery production.\nThe Latest Driver of TSLA Stock\nIt’s well known that battery production has posed many complications for the fast-growing EV sector. Today brought a significant step for Tesla as the company announced a deal with Australian graphite miner Syrah Resources(OTCMKTS:SYAAF). Syrah Resources will supply Tesla with its battery-ready graphite processed at its U.S. facility in Louisiana. Tesla stock isn’t the only one that has reacted well to this news.\nBoth stocks are rising today, with Tesla stock shooting straight up by 5.76% and the small cap Syrah rising by an astounding 83.14% today. While Tesla’s gains are nowhere near as high as that of its new partner, investors should see this news for the bigger picture. A giant of industry has taken a step that will put it significantly ahead of its competitors. Indeed, this should help Tesla in its quest to conquer one of the challenges it has faced throughout recent years.\nIt’s clear that investors see this deal as being quite beneficial to both companies, and they are not wrong. For a little-known mining company, the chance to partner with the EV leader likely means a ride to the top. This is especially true as Tesla streamlines its battery production process.\nEqually important is the fact that Tesla’s decision comes not a moment too soon. Two days ago,Electrek reported that not only was a global graphite deficit looming, it was predicted to start as early as 2022. The material is critical in the production of EV batteries. However, 84% of its global supply is currently from China.\nTesla’s new partnership will enable it to remain well supplied throughout a difficult time.\nThe EV sector may be in for slower growth in 2022, but that doesn’t mean companies won’t take steps to advance and prioritize innovative measures. Tesla is doing exactly that. Furthermore, this partnership will help secure its position of power for years to come as the graphite deficit takes shape.\nMoves like this should inspire investor confidence as Wall Street prepares for a less profitable year from EV stocks across the board. Tesla stock has seen its share of turbulence. However, the company is doing everything it can to prevent such patterns from repeating in 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SYAAF":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693533794,"gmtCreate":1640048137935,"gmtModify":1640048137935,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586323389590318","idStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ouch","listText":"Ouch","text":"Ouch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693533794","repostId":"2193761136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693382819,"gmtCreate":1639971386926,"gmtModify":1639971386926,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586323389590318","idStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693382819","repostId":"1199933858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199933858","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639969115,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199933858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199933858","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's o","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.</li>  <li>Sea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.</li>  <li>Its most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.</li>  <li>Even after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.</li> </ul> The wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea 股价已较历史高点下跌超过 40%，这反映了该公司估值过高。</li><li>Sea 通常被誉为东南亚的亚马逊，但持续出现巨额亏损。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门在新用户获取方面出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的修正，Sea 看起来仍然昂贵，约为远期收入的 10 倍。</li></ul>对于股票市场上一些最时髦、被过度炒作的名字来说，车轮即将脱落。这份名单中的佼佼者是国际科技巨头 Sea (SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网企业集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊 (AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied&nbsp;<b>eightfold</b>&nbsp;since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情期间获得了很大的吸引力，特别是当Sea的祖国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使Sea的平台上迅速而直接的游戏玩家队伍。Sea 的股价一度成倍增长<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that&nbsp;<b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and&nbsp;<b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着规避风险的态度在市场上占据主导地位，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅仅因为 Sea 的增长而奖励它，而没有考虑到其巨额亏损以及博彩部门基本上是在补贴公司其他部门的增长举措这一事实，但市场开始意识到这样一个事实：<b>(a)</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是理所当然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，以及<b>乙）</b>Sea 的公式完全依赖于博彩部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost&nbsp;<b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea 的股价已经下跌<b>40%以上</b>自达到 370 美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，当 Sea 的交易价格约为 350 美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有更多的痛苦，特别是如果市场继续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我仍然对 Sea 不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌 40% 之后，Sea 的估值仍然过高。按目前接近 213 美元的 ADR 股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1180.2 亿美元。在公司最新资产负债表上扣除 121.7 亿美元现金和 35 亿美元债务后，Sea 的结果<b>企业价值1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from&nbsp;Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年 2022 财年 Sea 的收入将同比增长 50%，达到 142.1 亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦疫情的顺风完全融入上一年的比较，这代表着当前接近100%的同比增长率急剧放缓。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据该收入估计，Sea 的估值倍数为<b>7.7 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比 Sea 过去交易的十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估此估值时，请记住以下几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li>  <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li>  <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b>&nbsp;valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea 的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非游戏收入占总收入的57%；非博彩 IFRS 毛利率仅为 14%（这两个指标均截至 2021 年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚最知名和国际贸易的互联网巨头，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是一个相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于一个发展如海的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有道理的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为 3.6 倍，不到 Sea 的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我非常紧张，因为 Sea 的调整仍然存在。如果这只股票跌至约 170 美元（远期收益约 6 倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约 20%），我会更有兴趣买入这只股票，但在那之前我仍处于观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea 的回调不仅体现了对成长型股票的情绪减弱，也反映了基本面的疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到 Sea 的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是最赚钱的部门，有助于弥补公司亏损领先的电子商务部门其他部门的亏损。随着游戏时间激增和付费意愿增加，Sea 的游戏业务在大流行期间出现了大幅增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea 的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>请看下图：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea 一直在新增 3000 万至 4000 万季度活跃用户。事实上，在上一季度，Sea 新增了约 7600 万个 QAU。只要 Sea 的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断扩大的损失，Sea 的公式就奏效了。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度几乎没有（约 400 万）净新增 QAU 新增数量的放缓令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅连续增加了100万。好消息是，Sea 本季度的付费用户比例为 12.8%，是该公司有史以来的最高水平。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，支付游戏费用的意愿以及一般的游戏活动是否会在后疫情时期下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed&nbsp;<i>Free Fire</i>&nbsp;title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like&nbsp;<i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea 的游戏成功很大程度上取决于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪 (ATVI) 等游戏竞争对手取得了巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏系列，例如<i>值班看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石传说。</i>在这方面，海洋相对未经测试，如果它不能维持<i>自由射击</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，Sea 无疑继续快速扩张。15亿美元的电子商务收入同比增长134%。根据首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第三季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p>   In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"  Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们相信有机会在高度多元化的环境中运用我们的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些国家建立并继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea 尚未弄清楚如何阻止其电子商务业务的流失，其调整后的 EBITDA 亏损同比增长一倍多，达到 -6.838 亿美元。数字娱乐 EBITDA 同比增长 22% 至 7.151 亿美元，但完全被电子商务亏损不断扩大所吞噬，调整后 EBITDA 总额从上年第三季度的利润 1.204 亿美元转为亏损 1.655 亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能不介意这种“不惜一切代价增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在 2022 年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为 Sea 不断飙升的亏损将引起更多的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，Sea 的股价几乎没有中断过两年的反弹，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先和增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，约170美元是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.</li>  <li>Sea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.</li>  <li>Its most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.</li>  <li>Even after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.</li> </ul> The wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea 股价已较历史高点下跌超过 40%，这反映了该公司估值过高。</li><li>Sea 通常被誉为东南亚的亚马逊，但持续出现巨额亏损。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门在新用户获取方面出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的修正，Sea 看起来仍然昂贵，约为远期收入的 10 倍。</li></ul>对于股票市场上一些最时髦、被过度炒作的名字来说，车轮即将脱落。这份名单中的佼佼者是国际科技巨头 Sea (SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网企业集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊 (AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied&nbsp;<b>eightfold</b>&nbsp;since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情期间获得了很大的吸引力，特别是当Sea的祖国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使Sea的平台上迅速而直接的游戏玩家队伍。Sea 的股价一度成倍增长<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that&nbsp;<b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and&nbsp;<b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着规避风险的态度在市场上占据主导地位，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅仅因为 Sea 的增长而奖励它，而没有考虑到其巨额亏损以及博彩部门基本上是在补贴公司其他部门的增长举措这一事实，但市场开始意识到这样一个事实：<b>(a)</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是理所当然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，以及<b>乙）</b>Sea 的公式完全依赖于博彩部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost&nbsp;<b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea 的股价已经下跌<b>40%以上</b>自达到 370 美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，当 Sea 的交易价格约为 350 美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有更多的痛苦，特别是如果市场继续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我仍然对 Sea 不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌 40% 之后，Sea 的估值仍然过高。按目前接近 213 美元的 ADR 股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1180.2 亿美元。在公司最新资产负债表上扣除 121.7 亿美元现金和 35 亿美元债务后，Sea 的结果<b>企业价值1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from&nbsp;Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年 2022 财年 Sea 的收入将同比增长 50%，达到 142.1 亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦疫情的顺风完全融入上一年的比较，这代表着当前接近100%的同比增长率急剧放缓。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据该收入估计，Sea 的估值倍数为<b>7.7 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比 Sea 过去交易的十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估此估值时，请记住以下几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li>  <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li>  <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b>&nbsp;valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea 的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非游戏收入占总收入的57%；非博彩 IFRS 毛利率仅为 14%（这两个指标均截至 2021 年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚最知名和国际贸易的互联网巨头，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是一个相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于一个发展如海的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有道理的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为 3.6 倍，不到 Sea 的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我非常紧张，因为 Sea 的调整仍然存在。如果这只股票跌至约 170 美元（远期收益约 6 倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约 20%），我会更有兴趣买入这只股票，但在那之前我仍处于观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea 的回调不仅体现了对成长型股票的情绪减弱，也反映了基本面的疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到 Sea 的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是最赚钱的部门，有助于弥补公司亏损领先的电子商务部门其他部门的亏损。随着游戏时间激增和付费意愿增加，Sea 的游戏业务在大流行期间出现了大幅增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea 的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>请看下图：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea 一直在新增 3000 万至 4000 万季度活跃用户。事实上，在上一季度，Sea 新增了约 7600 万个 QAU。只要 Sea 的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断扩大的损失，Sea 的公式就奏效了。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度几乎没有（约 400 万）净新增 QAU 新增数量的放缓令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅连续增加了100万。好消息是，Sea 本季度的付费用户比例为 12.8%，是该公司有史以来的最高水平。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，支付游戏费用的意愿以及一般的游戏活动是否会在后疫情时期下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed&nbsp;<i>Free Fire</i>&nbsp;title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like&nbsp;<i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea 的游戏成功很大程度上取决于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪 (ATVI) 等游戏竞争对手取得了巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏系列，例如<i>值班看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石传说。</i>在这方面，海洋相对未经测试，如果它不能维持<i>自由射击</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，Sea 无疑继续快速扩张。15亿美元的电子商务收入同比增长134%。根据首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第三季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p>   In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"  Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们相信有机会在高度多元化的环境中运用我们的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些国家建立并继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea 尚未弄清楚如何阻止其电子商务业务的流失，其调整后的 EBITDA 亏损同比增长一倍多，达到 -6.838 亿美元。数字娱乐 EBITDA 同比增长 22% 至 7.151 亿美元，但完全被电子商务亏损不断扩大所吞噬，调整后 EBITDA 总额从上年第三季度的利润 1.204 亿美元转为亏损 1.655 亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能不介意这种“不惜一切代价增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在 2022 年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为 Sea 不断飙升的亏损将引起更多的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，Sea 的股价几乎没有中断过两年的反弹，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先和增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，约170美元是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199933858","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.\nSea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.\nIts most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.\nEven after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.\n\nThe wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".\nThat narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied eightfold since the start of the pandemic.\nYet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that A)Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and B)Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.\nTaking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost more than 40%of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.\n\nIn late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious andneutralon Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.\nValuation still remains expensive\nThe chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting enterprise value is $109.35 billion.\nFor next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.\nAt this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.\nSure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:\n\nSea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).\nSea is hardly the only game in town.While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.\nSome growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's\n\nThe bottom line here: valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.\nThe fundamental risks investors should be tracking\nUnlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.\nWe've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.\nTake a look at the chart below:\nFor several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.\nBut this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.\nFor over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed Free Fire title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like Call of DutyandWorld of Warcraft/Hearthstone.In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustainingFree Fire'smomentum, it could be in trouble.\nMeanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:\n\n In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"\n\nSea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.\nIn bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.\nKey takeaways\nAfter a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693386725,"gmtCreate":1639971327879,"gmtModify":1639971327879,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586323389590318","idStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693386725","repostId":"1183475424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183475424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639967829,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183475424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869688166,"gmtCreate":1632280251655,"gmtModify":1632801516212,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586323389590318","idStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla to rise more!","listText":"Tesla to rise more!","text":"Tesla to rise 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correction?","listText":"Market correction?","text":"Market correction?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869681297","repostId":"2169324976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693382819,"gmtCreate":1639971386926,"gmtModify":1639971386926,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693382819","repostId":"1199933858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199933858","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639969115,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199933858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199933858","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's o","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.</li>  <li>Sea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.</li>  <li>Its most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.</li>  <li>Even after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.</li> </ul> The wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea 股价已较历史高点下跌超过 40%，这反映了该公司估值过高。</li><li>Sea 通常被誉为东南亚的亚马逊，但持续出现巨额亏损。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门在新用户获取方面出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的修正，Sea 看起来仍然昂贵，约为远期收入的 10 倍。</li></ul>对于股票市场上一些最时髦、被过度炒作的名字来说，车轮即将脱落。这份名单中的佼佼者是国际科技巨头 Sea (SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网企业集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊 (AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied&nbsp;<b>eightfold</b>&nbsp;since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情期间获得了很大的吸引力，特别是当Sea的祖国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使Sea的平台上迅速而直接的游戏玩家队伍。Sea 的股价一度成倍增长<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that&nbsp;<b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and&nbsp;<b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着规避风险的态度在市场上占据主导地位，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅仅因为 Sea 的增长而奖励它，而没有考虑到其巨额亏损以及博彩部门基本上是在补贴公司其他部门的增长举措这一事实，但市场开始意识到这样一个事实：<b>(a)</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是理所当然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，以及<b>乙）</b>Sea 的公式完全依赖于博彩部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost&nbsp;<b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea 的股价已经下跌<b>40%以上</b>自达到 370 美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，当 Sea 的交易价格约为 350 美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有更多的痛苦，特别是如果市场继续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我仍然对 Sea 不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌 40% 之后，Sea 的估值仍然过高。按目前接近 213 美元的 ADR 股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1180.2 亿美元。在公司最新资产负债表上扣除 121.7 亿美元现金和 35 亿美元债务后，Sea 的结果<b>企业价值1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from&nbsp;Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年 2022 财年 Sea 的收入将同比增长 50%，达到 142.1 亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦疫情的顺风完全融入上一年的比较，这代表着当前接近100%的同比增长率急剧放缓。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据该收入估计，Sea 的估值倍数为<b>7.7 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比 Sea 过去交易的十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估此估值时，请记住以下几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li>  <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li>  <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b>&nbsp;valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea 的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非游戏收入占总收入的57%；非博彩 IFRS 毛利率仅为 14%（这两个指标均截至 2021 年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚最知名和国际贸易的互联网巨头，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是一个相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于一个发展如海的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有道理的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为 3.6 倍，不到 Sea 的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我非常紧张，因为 Sea 的调整仍然存在。如果这只股票跌至约 170 美元（远期收益约 6 倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约 20%），我会更有兴趣买入这只股票，但在那之前我仍处于观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea 的回调不仅体现了对成长型股票的情绪减弱，也反映了基本面的疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到 Sea 的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是最赚钱的部门，有助于弥补公司亏损领先的电子商务部门其他部门的亏损。随着游戏时间激增和付费意愿增加，Sea 的游戏业务在大流行期间出现了大幅增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea 的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>请看下图：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea 一直在新增 3000 万至 4000 万季度活跃用户。事实上，在上一季度，Sea 新增了约 7600 万个 QAU。只要 Sea 的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断扩大的损失，Sea 的公式就奏效了。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度几乎没有（约 400 万）净新增 QAU 新增数量的放缓令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅连续增加了100万。好消息是，Sea 本季度的付费用户比例为 12.8%，是该公司有史以来的最高水平。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，支付游戏费用的意愿以及一般的游戏活动是否会在后疫情时期下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed&nbsp;<i>Free Fire</i>&nbsp;title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like&nbsp;<i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea 的游戏成功很大程度上取决于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪 (ATVI) 等游戏竞争对手取得了巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏系列，例如<i>值班看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石传说。</i>在这方面，海洋相对未经测试，如果它不能维持<i>自由射击</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，Sea 无疑继续快速扩张。15亿美元的电子商务收入同比增长134%。根据首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第三季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p>   In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"  Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们相信有机会在高度多元化的环境中运用我们的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些国家建立并继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea 尚未弄清楚如何阻止其电子商务业务的流失，其调整后的 EBITDA 亏损同比增长一倍多，达到 -6.838 亿美元。数字娱乐 EBITDA 同比增长 22% 至 7.151 亿美元，但完全被电子商务亏损不断扩大所吞噬，调整后 EBITDA 总额从上年第三季度的利润 1.204 亿美元转为亏损 1.655 亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能不介意这种“不惜一切代价增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在 2022 年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为 Sea 不断飙升的亏损将引起更多的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，Sea 的股价几乎没有中断过两年的反弹，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先和增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，约170美元是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.</li>  <li>Sea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.</li>  <li>Its most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.</li>  <li>Even after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.</li> </ul> The wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea 股价已较历史高点下跌超过 40%，这反映了该公司估值过高。</li><li>Sea 通常被誉为东南亚的亚马逊，但持续出现巨额亏损。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门在新用户获取方面出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的修正，Sea 看起来仍然昂贵，约为远期收入的 10 倍。</li></ul>对于股票市场上一些最时髦、被过度炒作的名字来说，车轮即将脱落。这份名单中的佼佼者是国际科技巨头 Sea (SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网企业集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊 (AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied&nbsp;<b>eightfold</b>&nbsp;since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情期间获得了很大的吸引力，特别是当Sea的祖国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使Sea的平台上迅速而直接的游戏玩家队伍。Sea 的股价一度成倍增长<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that&nbsp;<b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and&nbsp;<b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着规避风险的态度在市场上占据主导地位，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅仅因为 Sea 的增长而奖励它，而没有考虑到其巨额亏损以及博彩部门基本上是在补贴公司其他部门的增长举措这一事实，但市场开始意识到这样一个事实：<b>(a)</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是理所当然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，以及<b>乙）</b>Sea 的公式完全依赖于博彩部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost&nbsp;<b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea 的股价已经下跌<b>40%以上</b>自达到 370 美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，当 Sea 的交易价格约为 350 美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有更多的痛苦，特别是如果市场继续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我仍然对 Sea 不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌 40% 之后，Sea 的估值仍然过高。按目前接近 213 美元的 ADR 股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1180.2 亿美元。在公司最新资产负债表上扣除 121.7 亿美元现金和 35 亿美元债务后，Sea 的结果<b>企业价值1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from&nbsp;Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年 2022 财年 Sea 的收入将同比增长 50%，达到 142.1 亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦疫情的顺风完全融入上一年的比较，这代表着当前接近100%的同比增长率急剧放缓。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据该收入估计，Sea 的估值倍数为<b>7.7 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比 Sea 过去交易的十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估此估值时，请记住以下几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li>  <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li>  <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b>&nbsp;valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea 的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非游戏收入占总收入的57%；非博彩 IFRS 毛利率仅为 14%（这两个指标均截至 2021 年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚最知名和国际贸易的互联网巨头，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是一个相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于一个发展如海的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有道理的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为 3.6 倍，不到 Sea 的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我非常紧张，因为 Sea 的调整仍然存在。如果这只股票跌至约 170 美元（远期收益约 6 倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约 20%），我会更有兴趣买入这只股票，但在那之前我仍处于观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea 的回调不仅体现了对成长型股票的情绪减弱，也反映了基本面的疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到 Sea 的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是最赚钱的部门，有助于弥补公司亏损领先的电子商务部门其他部门的亏损。随着游戏时间激增和付费意愿增加，Sea 的游戏业务在大流行期间出现了大幅增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea 的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>请看下图：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea 一直在新增 3000 万至 4000 万季度活跃用户。事实上，在上一季度，Sea 新增了约 7600 万个 QAU。只要 Sea 的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断扩大的损失，Sea 的公式就奏效了。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度几乎没有（约 400 万）净新增 QAU 新增数量的放缓令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅连续增加了100万。好消息是，Sea 本季度的付费用户比例为 12.8%，是该公司有史以来的最高水平。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，支付游戏费用的意愿以及一般的游戏活动是否会在后疫情时期下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed&nbsp;<i>Free Fire</i>&nbsp;title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like&nbsp;<i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea 的游戏成功很大程度上取决于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪 (ATVI) 等游戏竞争对手取得了巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏系列，例如<i>值班看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石传说。</i>在这方面，海洋相对未经测试，如果它不能维持<i>自由射击</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，Sea 无疑继续快速扩张。15亿美元的电子商务收入同比增长134%。根据首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第三季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p>   In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"  Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们相信有机会在高度多元化的环境中运用我们的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些国家建立并继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea 尚未弄清楚如何阻止其电子商务业务的流失，其调整后的 EBITDA 亏损同比增长一倍多，达到 -6.838 亿美元。数字娱乐 EBITDA 同比增长 22% 至 7.151 亿美元，但完全被电子商务亏损不断扩大所吞噬，调整后 EBITDA 总额从上年第三季度的利润 1.204 亿美元转为亏损 1.655 亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能不介意这种“不惜一切代价增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在 2022 年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为 Sea 不断飙升的亏损将引起更多的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，Sea 的股价几乎没有中断过两年的反弹，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先和增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，约170美元是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199933858","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.\nSea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.\nIts most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.\nEven after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.\n\nThe wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".\nThat narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied eightfold since the start of the pandemic.\nYet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that A)Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and B)Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.\nTaking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost more than 40%of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.\n\nIn late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious andneutralon Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.\nValuation still remains expensive\nThe chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting enterprise value is $109.35 billion.\nFor next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.\nAt this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.\nSure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:\n\nSea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).\nSea is hardly the only game in town.While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.\nSome growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's\n\nThe bottom line here: valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.\nThe fundamental risks investors should be tracking\nUnlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.\nWe've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.\nTake a look at the chart below:\nFor several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.\nBut this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.\nFor over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed Free Fire title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like Call of DutyandWorld of Warcraft/Hearthstone.In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustainingFree Fire'smomentum, it could be in trouble.\nMeanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:\n\n In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"\n\nSea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.\nIn bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.\nKey takeaways\nAfter a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860234747,"gmtCreate":1632181683589,"gmtModify":1632802309076,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sigh","listText":"Sigh","text":"Sigh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860234747","repostId":"2169681424","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693386725,"gmtCreate":1639971327879,"gmtModify":1639971327879,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693386725","repostId":"1183475424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183475424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639967829,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183475424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163393310,"gmtCreate":1623859345530,"gmtModify":1634026911791,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163393310","repostId":"2143978737","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":698137458,"gmtCreate":1640315914682,"gmtModify":1640316523899,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698137458","repostId":"1108174302","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108174302","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640315277,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108174302?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108174302","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to delive","content":"<p><div> It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to deliver the gift of high returns to its investors. The leader of the electric vehicle (EV) race has ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这是艰难的一个月，但随着假期的迅速临近，特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）准备为投资者带来高回报。电动汽车（EV）竞赛的领导者……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Will Take Off in 2022 Thanks to a New Battery Deal<blockquote>得益于新的电池交易，特斯拉股价将于 2022 年上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to deliver the gift of high returns to its investors. The leader of the electric vehicle (EV) race has ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这是艰难的一个月，但随着假期的迅速临近，特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）准备为投资者带来高回报。电动汽车（EV）竞赛的领导者……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","SYAAF":"Syrah Resources Ltd."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/tesla-stock-will-take-off-in-2022-thanks-to-a-new-battery-deal/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108174302","content_text":"It’s been a tough month, but as the holidays rapidly approach,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to deliver the gift of high returns to its investors. The leader of the electric vehicle (EV) race has finally regained the momentum that it lost early in December. Indeed, Tesla stock has been rising all week with only minimal downticks. Despite the growing number of analyst reports that predict a year of slower growth for the EV sector, recent developments have helped push Tesla stock back onto the road. Most recently, the company announced a new deal that promises to help streamline battery production.\nThe Latest Driver of TSLA Stock\nIt’s well known that battery production has posed many complications for the fast-growing EV sector. Today brought a significant step for Tesla as the company announced a deal with Australian graphite miner Syrah Resources(OTCMKTS:SYAAF). Syrah Resources will supply Tesla with its battery-ready graphite processed at its U.S. facility in Louisiana. Tesla stock isn’t the only one that has reacted well to this news.\nBoth stocks are rising today, with Tesla stock shooting straight up by 5.76% and the small cap Syrah rising by an astounding 83.14% today. While Tesla’s gains are nowhere near as high as that of its new partner, investors should see this news for the bigger picture. A giant of industry has taken a step that will put it significantly ahead of its competitors. Indeed, this should help Tesla in its quest to conquer one of the challenges it has faced throughout recent years.\nIt’s clear that investors see this deal as being quite beneficial to both companies, and they are not wrong. For a little-known mining company, the chance to partner with the EV leader likely means a ride to the top. This is especially true as Tesla streamlines its battery production process.\nEqually important is the fact that Tesla’s decision comes not a moment too soon. Two days ago,Electrek reported that not only was a global graphite deficit looming, it was predicted to start as early as 2022. The material is critical in the production of EV batteries. However, 84% of its global supply is currently from China.\nTesla’s new partnership will enable it to remain well supplied throughout a difficult time.\nThe EV sector may be in for slower growth in 2022, but that doesn’t mean companies won’t take steps to advance and prioritize innovative measures. Tesla is doing exactly that. Furthermore, this partnership will help secure its position of power for years to come as the graphite deficit takes shape.\nMoves like this should inspire investor confidence as Wall Street prepares for a less profitable year from EV stocks across the board. Tesla stock has seen its share of turbulence. However, the company is doing everything it can to prevent such patterns from repeating in 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SYAAF":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869688166,"gmtCreate":1632280251655,"gmtModify":1632801516212,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla to rise more!","listText":"Tesla to rise more!","text":"Tesla to rise more!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869688166","repostId":"2169630481","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":698110083,"gmtCreate":1640315958388,"gmtModify":1640316528532,"author":{"id":"3586323389590318","authorId":"3586323389590318","name":"arrowt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa16cf0381efdbf40a05fa6108bc2ae5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586323389590318","authorIdStr":"3586323389590318"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Woww","listText":"Woww","text":"Woww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698110083","repostId":"1183390970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183390970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640313641,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183390970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183390970","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side t","content":"<p>Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街继续支持苹果股票的牛市。我们回顾了最近的卖方观点，并评估现在是否是逢低买入 AAPL 的时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below&nbsp;my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的股票在过去几周里上下波动，现在的交易价格约为每股 8 美元，低于我最近的 “削减头寸 ”价位。但缺乏动力并没有困扰华尔街分析师，他们越来越相信苹果的市值将在未来 12 个月内达到 3 万亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>今天，苹果专家浏览了最近发布的卖方报告，并评估了库比蒂诺公司股票日益强劲的牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street moves up the bar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街提高了标准</b></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价在 11 月底和 12 月初的强劲反弹，因此发生了一件独特的事情： 尽管华尔街一致给予该股 “强力买入 ”评级，但平均目标价已跌破苹果公司的市值。</blockquote></p><p> One of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>可能会发生两种情况之一：要么分析师需要根据估值过高而下调评级，要么提高价格目标以迎头赶上。后者最终发生了，这表明对进一步上行机会的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts&nbsp;had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>上周， 我们指出， 一波分析师认为苹果公司的市值在 3 万亿美元或以上。在买方方面，Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster 甚至呼吁以元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车的机会为由，提供 4 万亿美元的公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent report&nbsp;came in&nbsp;from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>花旗于 12 月 22 日发布了最新报告。分析师吉姆·苏瓦 (Jim Suva) 将目标价上调了 30 美元至 200 美元，理由是未来的一些积极发展：（1）本财年对产品和服务的需求有弹性；（2）混合现实机会没有充分反映在股价中。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，华尔街正在忽略将 AAPL 股价从两周前的 180 美元推至最近 160 美元高位的短期阻力。分析师表示，看跌压力似乎成为了以更低价格购买苹果股票的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is it time to buy AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是时候购买 AAPL 了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Late last week,I offered a plan of action&nbsp;for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:</p><p><blockquote>上周晚些时候， 我为那些希望逢低买入苹果股票的人提供了一个行动计划。首先，我仍然认为 AAPL 是对没有任何风险敞口的成长型投资组合的一个很好的补充。否则，我认为投资者应该：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.</li>  <li>“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.</li> </ul> The chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果该股表现逊于纳斯达克 5 个百分点，请考虑增持 AAPL——我估计在 160 美元的股价下可能会发生这种情况。</li><li>在股价跌破 150 美元的可能性较小的情况下，“倒车”。</li></ul>下图显示，在 12 月 22 日盘前，自我发表 “削减头寸 ”文章以来，AAPL 已落后纳斯达克指数约 2 个百分点。因此，购买 AAPL 的理由正在慢慢增强，但未来一些表现不佳仍然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f898e47d3d3dcee96368c621537b62\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL和IXIC性能。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街继续支持苹果股票的牛市。我们回顾了最近的卖方观点，并评估现在是否是逢低买入 AAPL 的时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below&nbsp;my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的股票在过去几周里上下波动，现在的交易价格约为每股 8 美元，低于我最近的 “削减头寸 ”价位。但缺乏动力并没有困扰华尔街分析师，他们越来越相信苹果的市值将在未来 12 个月内达到 3 万亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>今天，苹果专家浏览了最近发布的卖方报告，并评估了库比蒂诺公司股票日益强劲的牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street moves up the bar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街提高了标准</b></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价在 11 月底和 12 月初的强劲反弹，因此发生了一件独特的事情： 尽管华尔街一致给予该股 “强力买入 ”评级，但平均目标价已跌破苹果公司的市值。</blockquote></p><p> One of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>可能会发生两种情况之一：要么分析师需要根据估值过高而下调评级，要么提高价格目标以迎头赶上。后者最终发生了，这表明对进一步上行机会的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts&nbsp;had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>上周， 我们指出， 一波分析师认为苹果公司的市值在 3 万亿美元或以上。在买方方面，Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster 甚至呼吁以元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车的机会为由，提供 4 万亿美元的公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent report&nbsp;came in&nbsp;from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>花旗于 12 月 22 日发布了最新报告。分析师吉姆·苏瓦 (Jim Suva) 将目标价上调了 30 美元至 200 美元，理由是未来的一些积极发展：（1）本财年对产品和服务的需求有弹性；（2）混合现实机会没有充分反映在股价中。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，华尔街正在忽略将 AAPL 股价从两周前的 180 美元推至最近 160 美元高位的短期阻力。分析师表示，看跌压力似乎成为了以更低价格购买苹果股票的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is it time to buy AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是时候购买 AAPL 了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Late last week,I offered a plan of action&nbsp;for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:</p><p><blockquote>上周晚些时候， 我为那些希望逢低买入苹果股票的人提供了一个行动计划。首先，我仍然认为 AAPL 是对没有任何风险敞口的成长型投资组合的一个很好的补充。否则，我认为投资者应该：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.</li>  <li>“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.</li> </ul> The chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果该股表现逊于纳斯达克 5 个百分点，请考虑增持 AAPL——我估计在 160 美元的股价下可能会发生这种情况。</li><li>在股价跌破 150 美元的可能性较小的情况下，“倒车”。</li></ul>下图显示，在 12 月 22 日盘前，自我发表 “削减头寸 ”文章以来，AAPL 已落后纳斯达克指数约 2 个百分点。因此，购买 AAPL 的理由正在慢慢增强，但未来一些表现不佳仍然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f898e47d3d3dcee96368c621537b62\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL和IXIC性能。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-wall-street-lines-up-behind-3-trillion-bull-case\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-wall-street-lines-up-behind-3-trillion-bull-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183390970","content_text":"Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.\nApple stock has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.\nToday, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.\nFigure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.\nWall Street moves up the bar\nBecause Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.\nOne of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.\nLast week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.\nThe most recent report came in from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.\nThe bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.\nIs it time to buy AAPL?\nLate last week,I offered a plan of action for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:\n\nConsider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.\n“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.\n\nThe chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.\nFigure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}