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YangXH

YangXH

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2022-01-02

[Like]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-01-01

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-22

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-12

又是一个坑。看谁往里跳。

Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>

2021-12-09

Thanks for sharing

昨夜今晨：疫苗利好再度传来！苹果续刷历史新高

2021-12-09

[强]

Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%创新高</blockquote>

2021-11-14

Good news

Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>

2021-11-14

Like

Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>

2021-10-28

👍

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2021-10-17

Like

5 Stocks To Watch For October 15, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月 15 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>

2021-10-15

Like $Apple(AAPL)$

Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.8%</blockquote>

2021-10-12

👍

Apple iPhone Wait Times Are at Multiyear Highs. What It Means for Sales.<blockquote>苹果 iPhone 等待时间处于多年来的最高水平。这对销售意味着什么。</blockquote>

2021-10-09

Thanks for sharing.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-05

👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-28

Thanks for sharing

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-14

Like

Apple App Store: The Tide Is Turning<blockquote>苹果应用商店：潮流正在转变</blockquote>

2021-09-13

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-12

Buy the dip

Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote>

2021-09-11

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

buy$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$

@Buy_Sell:🚀【9月7日】美股昨夜休市，港股今日高开，今天买什么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639148939,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134450838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134450838","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.","content":"<p>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>继昨天下跌超过 9% 后，Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963eb8dd73ce8daa0d852d63f0bcc276\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-10 23:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>继昨天下跌超过 9% 后，Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963eb8dd73ce8daa0d852d63f0bcc276\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134450838","content_text":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602827948,"gmtCreate":1639008697068,"gmtModify":1639008697193,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602827948","repostId":"1137331022","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137331022","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639005672,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137331022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 07:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：疫苗利好再度传来！苹果续刷历史新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137331022","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大指数小幅收涨，苹果续创历史新高；中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%；辉瑞公司宣布加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株；游戏驿站Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%>>>\n\n海外市场\n美股三大指","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>摘要：</b>美股三大指数小幅收涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>续创历史新高；中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>公司宣布加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%&gt;&gt;&gt;\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>海外市场</b></p>\n<p><b>美股三大指数小幅收涨，苹果续创收盘历史新高</b></p>\n<p>美国股市周三小幅上涨，许多投资者已经预期到，奥密克戎的威胁将是可控的，这种预期推动了本周股市的连续反弹。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.1%，报35754.75点；标普500指数涨0.31%，报4701.21点；纳斯达克指数涨0.64%，报15786.99点。</p>\n<p><b>热门中概股收盘大多走高，雾芯科技涨超21%</b></p>\n<p>中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZTO\">中通快递</a>涨近6%；中概新能源汽车中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超5.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨2.1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超1%。</p>\n<p><b>美油收高0.4%，布油上涨0.5%</b></p>\n<p>美国原油期货价格周三创两周来的最高收盘价。关于奥密克戎变异毒株可能不会像人们担心的那样严重破坏经济的消息接踵而至，令油价持续获得支持。纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨31美分，涨幅0.4%，收于每桶72.36美元，创11月24日以来的最高收盘价；欧洲<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">洲际交易所</a>2月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨38美分，涨幅0.5%，收于每桶75.82美元，创11月25日以来的最高收盘价。</p>\n<p><b>黄金期货收高0.1%，并创一周来盘中最高价</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货周三小幅收高，盘中一度创一周以来新高。投资者关注奥密克戎变异毒株的发展，并等待本周即将公布的美国通胀数据。纽约商品交易所最活跃的2月黄金合约上涨80美分，涨幅不到0.1%，收于每盎司1785.50美元。盘中最高为1794.30美元，创12月1日以来的最高价格。</p>\n<p><b>欧股主要指数收跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.79%</b></p>\n<p>德国DAX30指数周三收跌0.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.08%，法国CAC40跌0.7%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.99%。</p>\n<p><b>国际宏观</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190969538\" target=\"_blank\"><b>辉瑞CEO：因omicron的出现 可能要比预期更早接种第四针疫苗</b></a></p>\n<p>辉瑞首席执行官Albert Bourla周三表示，在初步研究表明omicron变体会破坏新冠疫苗产生的保护性抗体后，人们可能需要比预期更早地接种第四针新冠疫苗。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190969538\" target=\"_blank\"><b>摩根大通：2022年全球经济将全面复苏</b></a></p>\n<p>美国投行摩根大通周三预测，2022年将标志着新冠疫情的结束，全球经济将全面复苏。该行在2022年的展望报告中称，新的疫苗和疗法将引发“强劲的周期性复苏、全球流动性的回归以及消费者被压抑需求的释放”。</p>\n<p><b>世卫组织：奥密克戎毒株将显著影响全球疫情</b></p>\n<p>世卫组织总干事谭德塞表示，已有57个国家和地区出现奥密克戎毒株，预计还将继续扩散，该毒株将对全球疫情产生显著影响，但目前还难以预估具体情况。南非感染奥密克戎毒株的病例数量正在迅速增加，谭德塞呼吁各国加强监测和病毒基因测序，以了解奥密克戎毒株是否能超越德尔塔毒株成为新的主要流行毒株。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190693181\" target=\"_blank\"><b>全球芯片短缺问题未有起色，交付等待时长再创历史新高</b></a></p>\n<p>芯片的交付时间再度延长，这项关键产品的短缺让许多行业希望再次破灭。根据Susquehanna金融集团的最新研究结果，11月芯片的交货时长（从订购到交付）比10月的21.9周增加了4天，达到约22.3周，再创该数据有史以来最长的等待时间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190869550\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国职位空缺接近历史高位，“大辞职潮”近半年来首次放缓</b></a><b></b></p>\n<p>美国10月职位空缺数跃升至有纪录以来的次高水平，凸显出雇主在填补岗位空缺方面所面临的挑战。美国劳工部周三发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查报告显示，职位空缺数升至1100万，前月数据意外上修至1060万。辞职率降至2.8%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190969538\" target=\"_blank\"><b>英国首相恢复居家工作建议 以遏制omicron传播</b></a></p>\n<p>英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊收紧防疫规定以遏制变异毒株omicron的传播，建议人们在家工作，并强制要求在大型公共场所使用“疫苗护照”。“越来越明显的是，omicron增长速度远快于德尔塔，”约翰逊在周三电视新闻发布会上宣布了英格兰地区的新防疫措施。他表示，“实施B计划是合适而负责任的做法”。</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190931896\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果股价续刷历史新高，市值逼近3万亿美元</b></a></p>\n<p>周三苹果股价再度刷新历史高位，市值也逐步接近3万亿美元。而就在一年多前，苹果市值才刚刚突破2万亿美元大关。据悉美国法院批准苹果推迟修改应用商店规则最后期限的动议，暂停执行Epic Games反垄断诉讼中针对苹果公司的应用商店禁令，该消息推动苹果股价短线拉升。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1141082394\" target=\"_blank\"><b>飙涨近22%！电子烟龙头豪掷超30亿回购股票</b></a></p>\n<p>电子烟龙头雾芯科技12月8日晚间发布公告称，董事会授权一项股票回购计划，根据该计划，公司可在截至2023年12月31日的一段时间内回购至多5亿美元（折合人民币31.7亿元）的股票。受此消息影响，雾芯科技股价高开高走，截至收盘，涨近22%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1124189543\" target=\"_blank\"><b>辉瑞：加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株</b></a></p>\n<p>辉瑞和BioNTech公司宣布，加强针新冠疫苗能中和奥密克戎变异毒株。初步试验数据显示，尽管两剂疫苗阻断奥密克戎的效果明显较差，但接种第三剂疫苗后，针对该毒株的抗体水平提高了25倍，足以和两剂疫苗对原始毒株的效果相媲美。</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>Evusheld疫苗获得美国食品药品监督管理局紧急使用授权</b></p>\n<p>周三阿斯利康的新冠注射剂Evusheld获得美国食品药品监督管理局紧急使用授权。FDA表示，此前针对阿斯利康的新冠注射剂Evusheld发布的紧急使用授权，是为了帮助特定的成人和儿童抵御新冠病毒。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2189667417\" target=\"_blank\"><b>谷歌和Roku达成新协议 确保YouTube和YouTube TV继续发行</b></a></p>\n<p>据报道，ROKU和谷歌今日达成了一项新的多年合作协议，使得YouTube和YouTube TV得以在Roku平台上继续存在。两家公司并未披露新协议的条款。Roku的一名代表在一份声明中称，“这项协议对我们的共同客户来说是一个积极的进展，使Roku平台上的所有流媒体用户都可以使用YouTube和YouTube TV。”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2189663059\" target=\"_blank\"><b>福特首款电动皮卡需求火爆，预订量接近20万辆</b></a></p>\n<p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>证实，首款电动皮卡F150 Lightning目前零售预订量已经接近20万辆。F-150 Lightning自今年9月以来一直处于试生产阶段，根据计划，将于2022年春季正式上市，预计在2022年下半年交付。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2189527726\" target=\"_blank\"><b>英特尔CEO：供应链问题将持续至2023年</b></a></p>\n<p>英特尔和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">埃森哲</a>CEO表示，对一些公司来说，波及整个美国经济的供应链问题正在改善，但长期修复可能需要更多时间。芯片业巨头英特尔身处全球半导体短缺的风暴中心，该公司CEO基辛格预计供应链问题将持续到2023年，部分是因为建造一家新厂需要三年时间。基辛格说：“我们认为当前正是最糟糕的阶段。”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1131202578\" target=\"_blank\"><b>游戏驿站Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%</b></a></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收12.97亿美元，市场预期11.89亿美元，去年同期10.05亿美元；第三季度净亏损1.054亿美元，市场预期净亏损3213.3万美元，去年同期1880万美元；第三季度每股亏损1.39美元，市场预期亏损0.4美元，去年同期亏损0.29美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1177663836\" target=\"_blank\"><b>UiPath&nbsp;2022财年第三季度净亏损同比扩大</b></a></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收2.21亿美元，市场预期2.09亿美元，去年同期1.47亿美元；第三季度净亏损1.23亿美元，市场预期净亏损6258.2万美元，去年同期净亏损7079.6万美元；第三季度每股亏损0.23美元，市场预期亏损0.14美元，去年同期亏损0.41美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：疫苗利好再度传来！苹果续刷历史新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：疫苗利好再度传来！苹果续刷历史新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-09 07:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>摘要：</b>美股三大指数小幅收涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>续创历史新高；中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>公司宣布加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%&gt;&gt;&gt;\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>海外市场</b></p>\n<p><b>美股三大指数小幅收涨，苹果续创收盘历史新高</b></p>\n<p>美国股市周三小幅上涨，许多投资者已经预期到，奥密克戎的威胁将是可控的，这种预期推动了本周股市的连续反弹。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.1%，报35754.75点；标普500指数涨0.31%，报4701.21点；纳斯达克指数涨0.64%，报15786.99点。</p>\n<p><b>热门中概股收盘大多走高，雾芯科技涨超21%</b></p>\n<p>中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZTO\">中通快递</a>涨近6%；中概新能源汽车中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超5.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨2.1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超1%。</p>\n<p><b>美油收高0.4%，布油上涨0.5%</b></p>\n<p>美国原油期货价格周三创两周来的最高收盘价。关于奥密克戎变异毒株可能不会像人们担心的那样严重破坏经济的消息接踵而至，令油价持续获得支持。纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨31美分，涨幅0.4%，收于每桶72.36美元，创11月24日以来的最高收盘价；欧洲<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">洲际交易所</a>2月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨38美分，涨幅0.5%，收于每桶75.82美元，创11月25日以来的最高收盘价。</p>\n<p><b>黄金期货收高0.1%，并创一周来盘中最高价</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货周三小幅收高，盘中一度创一周以来新高。投资者关注奥密克戎变异毒株的发展，并等待本周即将公布的美国通胀数据。纽约商品交易所最活跃的2月黄金合约上涨80美分，涨幅不到0.1%，收于每盎司1785.50美元。盘中最高为1794.30美元，创12月1日以来的最高价格。</p>\n<p><b>欧股主要指数收跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.79%</b></p>\n<p>德国DAX30指数周三收跌0.79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.08%，法国CAC40跌0.7%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.99%。</p>\n<p><b>国际宏观</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190969538\" target=\"_blank\"><b>辉瑞CEO：因omicron的出现 可能要比预期更早接种第四针疫苗</b></a></p>\n<p>辉瑞首席执行官Albert Bourla周三表示，在初步研究表明omicron变体会破坏新冠疫苗产生的保护性抗体后，人们可能需要比预期更早地接种第四针新冠疫苗。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190969538\" target=\"_blank\"><b>摩根大通：2022年全球经济将全面复苏</b></a></p>\n<p>美国投行摩根大通周三预测，2022年将标志着新冠疫情的结束，全球经济将全面复苏。该行在2022年的展望报告中称，新的疫苗和疗法将引发“强劲的周期性复苏、全球流动性的回归以及消费者被压抑需求的释放”。</p>\n<p><b>世卫组织：奥密克戎毒株将显著影响全球疫情</b></p>\n<p>世卫组织总干事谭德塞表示，已有57个国家和地区出现奥密克戎毒株，预计还将继续扩散，该毒株将对全球疫情产生显著影响，但目前还难以预估具体情况。南非感染奥密克戎毒株的病例数量正在迅速增加，谭德塞呼吁各国加强监测和病毒基因测序，以了解奥密克戎毒株是否能超越德尔塔毒株成为新的主要流行毒株。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190693181\" target=\"_blank\"><b>全球芯片短缺问题未有起色，交付等待时长再创历史新高</b></a></p>\n<p>芯片的交付时间再度延长，这项关键产品的短缺让许多行业希望再次破灭。根据Susquehanna金融集团的最新研究结果，11月芯片的交货时长（从订购到交付）比10月的21.9周增加了4天，达到约22.3周，再创该数据有史以来最长的等待时间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190869550\" target=\"_blank\"><b>美国职位空缺接近历史高位，“大辞职潮”近半年来首次放缓</b></a><b></b></p>\n<p>美国10月职位空缺数跃升至有纪录以来的次高水平，凸显出雇主在填补岗位空缺方面所面临的挑战。美国劳工部周三发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查报告显示，职位空缺数升至1100万，前月数据意外上修至1060万。辞职率降至2.8%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190969538\" target=\"_blank\"><b>英国首相恢复居家工作建议 以遏制omicron传播</b></a></p>\n<p>英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊收紧防疫规定以遏制变异毒株omicron的传播，建议人们在家工作，并强制要求在大型公共场所使用“疫苗护照”。“越来越明显的是，omicron增长速度远快于德尔塔，”约翰逊在周三电视新闻发布会上宣布了英格兰地区的新防疫措施。他表示，“实施B计划是合适而负责任的做法”。</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2190931896\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果股价续刷历史新高，市值逼近3万亿美元</b></a></p>\n<p>周三苹果股价再度刷新历史高位，市值也逐步接近3万亿美元。而就在一年多前，苹果市值才刚刚突破2万亿美元大关。据悉美国法院批准苹果推迟修改应用商店规则最后期限的动议，暂停执行Epic Games反垄断诉讼中针对苹果公司的应用商店禁令，该消息推动苹果股价短线拉升。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1141082394\" target=\"_blank\"><b>飙涨近22%！电子烟龙头豪掷超30亿回购股票</b></a></p>\n<p>电子烟龙头雾芯科技12月8日晚间发布公告称，董事会授权一项股票回购计划，根据该计划，公司可在截至2023年12月31日的一段时间内回购至多5亿美元（折合人民币31.7亿元）的股票。受此消息影响，雾芯科技股价高开高走，截至收盘，涨近22%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1124189543\" target=\"_blank\"><b>辉瑞：加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株</b></a></p>\n<p>辉瑞和BioNTech公司宣布，加强针新冠疫苗能中和奥密克戎变异毒株。初步试验数据显示，尽管两剂疫苗阻断奥密克戎的效果明显较差，但接种第三剂疫苗后，针对该毒株的抗体水平提高了25倍，足以和两剂疫苗对原始毒株的效果相媲美。</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>Evusheld疫苗获得美国食品药品监督管理局紧急使用授权</b></p>\n<p>周三阿斯利康的新冠注射剂Evusheld获得美国食品药品监督管理局紧急使用授权。FDA表示，此前针对阿斯利康的新冠注射剂Evusheld发布的紧急使用授权，是为了帮助特定的成人和儿童抵御新冠病毒。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2189667417\" target=\"_blank\"><b>谷歌和Roku达成新协议 确保YouTube和YouTube TV继续发行</b></a></p>\n<p>据报道，ROKU和谷歌今日达成了一项新的多年合作协议，使得YouTube和YouTube TV得以在Roku平台上继续存在。两家公司并未披露新协议的条款。Roku的一名代表在一份声明中称，“这项协议对我们的共同客户来说是一个积极的进展，使Roku平台上的所有流媒体用户都可以使用YouTube和YouTube TV。”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2189663059\" target=\"_blank\"><b>福特首款电动皮卡需求火爆，预订量接近20万辆</b></a></p>\n<p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>证实，首款电动皮卡F150 Lightning目前零售预订量已经接近20万辆。F-150 Lightning自今年9月以来一直处于试生产阶段，根据计划，将于2022年春季正式上市，预计在2022年下半年交付。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2189527726\" target=\"_blank\"><b>英特尔CEO：供应链问题将持续至2023年</b></a></p>\n<p>英特尔和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">埃森哲</a>CEO表示，对一些公司来说，波及整个美国经济的供应链问题正在改善，但长期修复可能需要更多时间。芯片业巨头英特尔身处全球半导体短缺的风暴中心，该公司CEO基辛格预计供应链问题将持续到2023年，部分是因为建造一家新厂需要三年时间。基辛格说：“我们认为当前正是最糟糕的阶段。”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1131202578\" target=\"_blank\"><b>游戏驿站Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%</b></a></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收12.97亿美元，市场预期11.89亿美元，去年同期10.05亿美元；第三季度净亏损1.054亿美元，市场预期净亏损3213.3万美元，去年同期1880万美元；第三季度每股亏损1.39美元，市场预期亏损0.4美元，去年同期亏损0.29美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1177663836\" target=\"_blank\"><b>UiPath&nbsp;2022财年第三季度净亏损同比扩大</b></a></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收2.21亿美元，市场预期2.09亿美元，去年同期1.47亿美元；第三季度净亏损1.23亿美元，市场预期净亏损6258.2万美元，去年同期净亏损7079.6万美元；第三季度每股亏损0.23美元，市场预期亏损0.14美元，去年同期亏损0.41美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","AAPL":"苹果","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137331022","content_text":"摘要：美股三大指数小幅收涨，苹果续创历史新高；中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%；辉瑞公司宣布加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株；游戏驿站Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%>>>\n\n海外市场\n美股三大指数小幅收涨，苹果续创收盘历史新高\n美国股市周三小幅上涨，许多投资者已经预期到，奥密克戎的威胁将是可控的，这种预期推动了本周股市的连续反弹。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.1%，报35754.75点；标普500指数涨0.31%，报4701.21点；纳斯达克指数涨0.64%，报15786.99点。\n热门中概股收盘大多走高，雾芯科技涨超21%\n中概股多数上涨，雾芯科技收涨超21%，好未来涨超13%，贝壳涨超11%，高途涨超11%，瑞幸咖啡涨超9%，新东方涨超8%，中通快递涨近6%；中概新能源汽车中，蔚来涨超5.8%，理想汽车涨2.1%，小鹏汽车涨超1%。\n美油收高0.4%，布油上涨0.5%\n美国原油期货价格周三创两周来的最高收盘价。关于奥密克戎变异毒株可能不会像人们担心的那样严重破坏经济的消息接踵而至，令油价持续获得支持。纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨31美分，涨幅0.4%，收于每桶72.36美元，创11月24日以来的最高收盘价；欧洲洲际交易所2月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨38美分，涨幅0.5%，收于每桶75.82美元，创11月25日以来的最高收盘价。\n黄金期货收高0.1%，并创一周来盘中最高价\n黄金期货周三小幅收高，盘中一度创一周以来新高。投资者关注奥密克戎变异毒株的发展，并等待本周即将公布的美国通胀数据。纽约商品交易所最活跃的2月黄金合约上涨80美分，涨幅不到0.1%，收于每盎司1785.50美元。盘中最高为1794.30美元，创12月1日以来的最高价格。\n欧股主要指数收跌，德国DAX30指数跌0.79%\n德国DAX30指数周三收跌0.79%，英国富时100跌0.08%，法国CAC40跌0.7%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.99%。\n国际宏观\n辉瑞CEO：因omicron的出现 可能要比预期更早接种第四针疫苗\n辉瑞首席执行官Albert Bourla周三表示，在初步研究表明omicron变体会破坏新冠疫苗产生的保护性抗体后，人们可能需要比预期更早地接种第四针新冠疫苗。\n摩根大通：2022年全球经济将全面复苏\n美国投行摩根大通周三预测，2022年将标志着新冠疫情的结束，全球经济将全面复苏。该行在2022年的展望报告中称，新的疫苗和疗法将引发“强劲的周期性复苏、全球流动性的回归以及消费者被压抑需求的释放”。\n世卫组织：奥密克戎毒株将显著影响全球疫情\n世卫组织总干事谭德塞表示，已有57个国家和地区出现奥密克戎毒株，预计还将继续扩散，该毒株将对全球疫情产生显著影响，但目前还难以预估具体情况。南非感染奥密克戎毒株的病例数量正在迅速增加，谭德塞呼吁各国加强监测和病毒基因测序，以了解奥密克戎毒株是否能超越德尔塔毒株成为新的主要流行毒株。\n全球芯片短缺问题未有起色，交付等待时长再创历史新高\n芯片的交付时间再度延长，这项关键产品的短缺让许多行业希望再次破灭。根据Susquehanna金融集团的最新研究结果，11月芯片的交货时长（从订购到交付）比10月的21.9周增加了4天，达到约22.3周，再创该数据有史以来最长的等待时间。\n美国职位空缺接近历史高位，“大辞职潮”近半年来首次放缓\n美国10月职位空缺数跃升至有纪录以来的次高水平，凸显出雇主在填补岗位空缺方面所面临的挑战。美国劳工部周三发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查报告显示，职位空缺数升至1100万，前月数据意外上修至1060万。辞职率降至2.8%。\n英国首相恢复居家工作建议 以遏制omicron传播\n英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊收紧防疫规定以遏制变异毒株omicron的传播，建议人们在家工作，并强制要求在大型公共场所使用“疫苗护照”。“越来越明显的是，omicron增长速度远快于德尔塔，”约翰逊在周三电视新闻发布会上宣布了英格兰地区的新防疫措施。他表示，“实施B计划是合适而负责任的做法”。\n公司新闻\n苹果股价续刷历史新高，市值逼近3万亿美元\n周三苹果股价再度刷新历史高位，市值也逐步接近3万亿美元。而就在一年多前，苹果市值才刚刚突破2万亿美元大关。据悉美国法院批准苹果推迟修改应用商店规则最后期限的动议，暂停执行Epic Games反垄断诉讼中针对苹果公司的应用商店禁令，该消息推动苹果股价短线拉升。\n飙涨近22%！电子烟龙头豪掷超30亿回购股票\n电子烟龙头雾芯科技12月8日晚间发布公告称，董事会授权一项股票回购计划，根据该计划，公司可在截至2023年12月31日的一段时间内回购至多5亿美元（折合人民币31.7亿元）的股票。受此消息影响，雾芯科技股价高开高走，截至收盘，涨近22%。\n辉瑞：加强针疫苗可中和奥密克戎毒株\n辉瑞和BioNTech公司宣布，加强针新冠疫苗能中和奥密克戎变异毒株。初步试验数据显示，尽管两剂疫苗阻断奥密克戎的效果明显较差，但接种第三剂疫苗后，针对该毒株的抗体水平提高了25倍，足以和两剂疫苗对原始毒株的效果相媲美。\n阿斯利康Evusheld疫苗获得美国食品药品监督管理局紧急使用授权\n周三阿斯利康的新冠注射剂Evusheld获得美国食品药品监督管理局紧急使用授权。FDA表示，此前针对阿斯利康的新冠注射剂Evusheld发布的紧急使用授权，是为了帮助特定的成人和儿童抵御新冠病毒。\n谷歌和Roku达成新协议 确保YouTube和YouTube TV继续发行\n据报道，ROKU和谷歌今日达成了一项新的多年合作协议，使得YouTube和YouTube TV得以在Roku平台上继续存在。两家公司并未披露新协议的条款。Roku的一名代表在一份声明中称，“这项协议对我们的共同客户来说是一个积极的进展，使Roku平台上的所有流媒体用户都可以使用YouTube和YouTube TV。”\n福特首款电动皮卡需求火爆，预订量接近20万辆\n据报道，福特汽车证实，首款电动皮卡F150 Lightning目前零售预订量已经接近20万辆。F-150 Lightning自今年9月以来一直处于试生产阶段，根据计划，将于2022年春季正式上市，预计在2022年下半年交付。\n英特尔CEO：供应链问题将持续至2023年\n英特尔和埃森哲CEO表示，对一些公司来说，波及整个美国经济的供应链问题正在改善，但长期修复可能需要更多时间。芯片业巨头英特尔身处全球半导体短缺的风暴中心，该公司CEO基辛格预计供应链问题将持续到2023年，部分是因为建造一家新厂需要三年时间。基辛格说：“我们认为当前正是最糟糕的阶段。”\n游戏驿站Q3净亏损同比扩大，盘后一度跌逾7%\n财报显示，第三季度营收12.97亿美元，市场预期11.89亿美元，去年同期10.05亿美元；第三季度净亏损1.054亿美元，市场预期净亏损3213.3万美元，去年同期1880万美元；第三季度每股亏损1.39美元，市场预期亏损0.4美元，去年同期亏损0.29美元。\nUiPath 2022财年第三季度净亏损同比扩大\n财报显示，第三季度营收2.21亿美元，市场预期2.09亿美元，去年同期1.47亿美元；第三季度净亏损1.23亿美元，市场预期净亏损6258.2万美元，去年同期净亏损7079.6万美元；第三季度每股亏损0.23美元，市场预期亏损0.14美元，去年同期亏损0.41美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602800962,"gmtCreate":1639003612096,"gmtModify":1639003705577,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602800962","repostId":"1161444269","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161444269","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638977215,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161444269?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161444269","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high in morning trading.","content":"<p>Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high&nbsp;in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在早盘交易中上涨近2%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9f5fdc1cb0a898675c515a39de7611\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 23:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high&nbsp;in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在早盘交易中上涨近2%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9f5fdc1cb0a898675c515a39de7611\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161444269","content_text":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873988440,"gmtCreate":1636843830814,"gmtModify":1636843830928,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873988440","repostId":"1102251183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102251183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636772424,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102251183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102251183","media":"Barrons","summary":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Mo","content":"<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一清晨，通过电话联系到辉瑞公司的首席科学官米凯尔-多尔斯滕（Mikael Dolsten）时，他听起来头晕目眩。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其 Covid-19 抗病毒药物已将高危成年人的住院风险降低了 89%，这一消息震惊了市场。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”这不可能是一件偶然的事情，你能够打破这种世界纪录，同时获得大满贯。他在试图说明辉瑞公司双赢的重要性时，用了体育比喻： 仅用了 10 个月就研制出了一种非常有效的 Covid-19 疫苗，一年后又研制出了一种同样令人惊叹的 Covid-19 抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 要求投资者在多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务上下大注。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla 已经摆脱了辉瑞公司的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者保健产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司将依靠多尔斯滕的科学力量生死存亡。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在 2019 年 11 月的封面故事中，<i>巴伦</i>认为Bourla和Dolsten能成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞公司的观点：<i>巴伦</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从疫情中获利会带来新的风险。低收入国家在全球70多亿剂疫苗中所占比例不到1%。如果辉瑞公司抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞公司股价飙升 10.9%，创下至少 20 年来最佳单日表现。尽管如此，随着该股目前在 50 美元左右易手，投资者继续低估该公司的估值。投资者对辉瑞公司的定价是明年预期收益的 12 倍，低于强生公司（JNJ）和礼来公司（LLY）等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临的专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去少数几种每年带来数十亿美元收入的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这种担忧是合理的，但辉瑞公司的科学政变应该让投资者相信，该公司的科学能够安全地渡过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能迎头赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞公司科学实力的最好例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司的 Covid-19 疫苗来自德国生物技术公司 BioNTech (BNTX) 的实验室，而新型 Covid-19 抗病毒药物则是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞公司位于美国东北部的实验室科学家 “梦之队 ”研发出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将精力分散在与 BioNTech 在疫苗方面的合作和对 Covid-19 药丸的追求上。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的 “巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目是一个规模小得多的项目——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源开展工作。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，资源相当适中。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括辉瑞公司的药物设计主管夏洛特-阿勒顿（Charlotte Allerton）。科学家们从辉瑞公司几年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“辉瑞的药物研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂是静脉注射给药的，口服给药时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应。科学家们创造了 600 种化合物来确定合适的药物，这一过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“他说：”四年在这里变成了四个月。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药丸。目前，该公司正在对该药物进行多项 2/3 期试验，包括一项针对高危患者的试验、一项针对非高危患者的试验以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防措施。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司 (MRK) 的 Covid 治疗药丸更有效。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“Cantor Fitzgerald 的分析师 Louise Chen 说：”这无疑有助于证明（辉瑞的）药品研发比人们想象的要好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈说，在 Covid-19 疫苗和药丸销售的耐久性得到更明确以及其余的管道得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我认为没有一个事件会引发该股的评级被重新评级到下一个级别。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得押注辉瑞成为一项长期战略。与此同时，Moderna (MRNA) 最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不均而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对 Moderna 公司越来越不满，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司 “加大力度”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 股价在过去三个月中下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞公司可能会侵蚀大约一年前推出 Covid-19 疫苗时获得的巨大商誉。本月早些时候，辉瑞公司首席执行官布尔拉将疫苗分配不公归咎于低收入国家，并表示<i>巴伦</i>不下单是他们的错。辉瑞公司以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，用于捐赠给贫困国家，并表示到明年年底将总共至少向中低收入国家交付20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到抗病毒药物时，辉瑞只表示将为较贫穷的国家提供分层定价，这与它对疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫困国家提供自己的 Covid-19 药丸的计划形成了鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，该协议将允许其药丸在全球获得许可，而默克公司无需支付版税。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说，辉瑞公司正在考虑按照与默克公司类似的机制对其药片进行许可。“他说：”我们将研究这些方案。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保无论谁参与其中，都能获得建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措来得还不够快。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家门外举行抗议活动，呼吁辉瑞公司分享其疫苗生产技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞保持相对良好的华盛顿青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学继续推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一清晨，通过电话联系到辉瑞公司的首席科学官米凯尔-多尔斯滕（Mikael Dolsten）时，他听起来头晕目眩。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其 Covid-19 抗病毒药物已将高危成年人的住院风险降低了 89%，这一消息震惊了市场。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”这不可能是一件偶然的事情，你能够打破这种世界纪录，同时获得大满贯。他在试图说明辉瑞公司双赢的重要性时，用了体育比喻： 仅用了 10 个月就研制出了一种非常有效的 Covid-19 疫苗，一年后又研制出了一种同样令人惊叹的 Covid-19 抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 要求投资者在多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务上下大注。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla 已经摆脱了辉瑞公司的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者保健产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司将依靠多尔斯滕的科学力量生死存亡。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在 2019 年 11 月的封面故事中，<i>巴伦</i>认为Bourla和Dolsten能成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞公司的观点：<i>巴伦</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从疫情中获利会带来新的风险。低收入国家在全球70多亿剂疫苗中所占比例不到1%。如果辉瑞公司抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞公司股价飙升 10.9%，创下至少 20 年来最佳单日表现。尽管如此，随着该股目前在 50 美元左右易手，投资者继续低估该公司的估值。投资者对辉瑞公司的定价是明年预期收益的 12 倍，低于强生公司（JNJ）和礼来公司（LLY）等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临的专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去少数几种每年带来数十亿美元收入的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这种担忧是合理的，但辉瑞公司的科学政变应该让投资者相信，该公司的科学能够安全地渡过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能迎头赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞公司科学实力的最好例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司的 Covid-19 疫苗来自德国生物技术公司 BioNTech (BNTX) 的实验室，而新型 Covid-19 抗病毒药物则是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞公司位于美国东北部的实验室科学家 “梦之队 ”研发出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将精力分散在与 BioNTech 在疫苗方面的合作和对 Covid-19 药丸的追求上。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的 “巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目是一个规模小得多的项目——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源开展工作。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，资源相当适中。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括辉瑞公司的药物设计主管夏洛特-阿勒顿（Charlotte Allerton）。科学家们从辉瑞公司几年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“辉瑞的药物研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂是静脉注射给药的，口服给药时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应。科学家们创造了 600 种化合物来确定合适的药物，这一过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“他说：”四年在这里变成了四个月。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药丸。目前，该公司正在对该药物进行多项 2/3 期试验，包括一项针对高危患者的试验、一项针对非高危患者的试验以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防措施。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司 (MRK) 的 Covid 治疗药丸更有效。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“Cantor Fitzgerald 的分析师 Louise Chen 说：”这无疑有助于证明（辉瑞的）药品研发比人们想象的要好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈说，在 Covid-19 疫苗和药丸销售的耐久性得到更明确以及其余的管道得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我认为没有一个事件会引发该股的评级被重新评级到下一个级别。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得押注辉瑞成为一项长期战略。与此同时，Moderna (MRNA) 最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不均而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对 Moderna 公司越来越不满，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司 “加大力度”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 股价在过去三个月中下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞公司可能会侵蚀大约一年前推出 Covid-19 疫苗时获得的巨大商誉。本月早些时候，辉瑞公司首席执行官布尔拉将疫苗分配不公归咎于低收入国家，并表示<i>巴伦</i>不下单是他们的错。辉瑞公司以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，用于捐赠给贫困国家，并表示到明年年底将总共至少向中低收入国家交付20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到抗病毒药物时，辉瑞只表示将为较贫穷的国家提供分层定价，这与它对疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫困国家提供自己的 Covid-19 药丸的计划形成了鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，该协议将允许其药丸在全球获得许可，而默克公司无需支付版税。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说，辉瑞公司正在考虑按照与默克公司类似的机制对其药片进行许可。“他说：”我们将研究这些方案。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保无论谁参与其中，都能获得建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措来得还不够快。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家门外举行抗议活动，呼吁辉瑞公司分享其疫苗生产技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞保持相对良好的华盛顿青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学继续推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102251183","content_text":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.\n“It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.\nTwo years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.\nBourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.\nIn a cover story in November 2019, Barron’s argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.\nThe new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that Barron’s made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.\nPfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY).\nThe Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.\nThe worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.\nThe success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.\nWhile Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech BioNTech (BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.\nIn the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.\nThe antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.\n“The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.\nDolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.\n“[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought.”\nThe protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.\n“They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.\nPfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from Merck (MRK).\n“It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.\nChen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.\n“There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”\nThat makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of Moderna (MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.\nBiden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”\nModerna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.\nAs the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling Barron’s that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.\nWhen it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.\nThat contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.\nDolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”\nSuch a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.\nAn aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873981731,"gmtCreate":1636843702976,"gmtModify":1636843703092,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873981731","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许 AAPL 不是那种值得一买的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只在未来几年内值得今天持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约 6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头已开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，卖出（或做空）这只股票的理由并没有太大的说服力，我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌案例要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 和 Satori Fund 的 Dan Niles 等专家是少数几个浮现在脑海中的专家，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌 AAPL 的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常有不同的表述方式，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在 2020 年转化为收入。疫情和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13推出后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为这只是对之前型号的一个小升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和假期后的季度开始面临难以逾越的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表也显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度里，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。从2019-2020财年到2021财年销售转变的一个可能理由是苹果较晚进入5G领域。忠实于或只是偏爱iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一次性完成所有操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这或许也有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去 6 到 12 个月中飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一台能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自 2015 年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020 财年第四季度同比下降高达 29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，收入每个时期至少增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在过去的12个季度——大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命——苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能会增加，这个数字很难代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为苹果产品的需求接下来会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，尤其是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的另一个经常被提及的主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 表示，明年 26 倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与适度的增长预期相比，这个倍数看起来太高了。分析师预计，到 2025 财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长 4%。Alphabet (GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期每年盈利将增长 16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（长期每股收益增长的市盈率）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊 (AMZN) 在该指标上遥遥领先，为 2.3 倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个有利于苹果的好论点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的守门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象是，苹果今年夏天的iOS隐私政策变化一直在伤害社交媒体公司，他们的财务报表导致纳斯达克市值在几分钟内飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们是否应该期望为股票支付溢价？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，与几年前相比，苹果的未来一年市盈率肯定有所扩大。但多年来的走高似乎与以下因素一致：（1）对苹果产品和服务的需求增加，（2）更好的利润率，（3）2020年利率下降，以及（4）广泛的股票市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前 AAPL 的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了约三次，并回到了 2021 年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的下一个经常被提及的风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与 11 月至 1 月期间季节性表现较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能认为，由于未来几个季度的艰难竞争，投资者可能很难在未来几个月找到购买 AAPL 的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但是在这里，我相信一点耐心是必要的。首先，仅近期股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太多上涨空间是否已被纳入分析师的财务模型，因此，该股的定价也得到了适当的体现。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队管理的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（这与上述风险 1 相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不会像我在 2021 年 2 月或更好的是，在 2018 年 4 月所认为的那样是千载难逢的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票无缘无故地抛售。但我仍然认为 AAPL 是未来几年值得持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始向一年前的水平重新评估。如果苹果在短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许 AAPL 不是那种值得一买的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只在未来几年内值得今天持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约 6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头已开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，卖出（或做空）这只股票的理由并没有太大的说服力，我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌案例要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 和 Satori Fund 的 Dan Niles 等专家是少数几个浮现在脑海中的专家，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌 AAPL 的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常有不同的表述方式，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在 2020 年转化为收入。疫情和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13推出后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为这只是对之前型号的一个小升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和假期后的季度开始面临难以逾越的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表也显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度里，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。从2019-2020财年到2021财年销售转变的一个可能理由是苹果较晚进入5G领域。忠实于或只是偏爱iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一次性完成所有操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这或许也有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去 6 到 12 个月中飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一台能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自 2015 年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020 财年第四季度同比下降高达 29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，收入每个时期至少增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在过去的12个季度——大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命——苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能会增加，这个数字很难代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为苹果产品的需求接下来会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，尤其是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的另一个经常被提及的主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 表示，明年 26 倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与适度的增长预期相比，这个倍数看起来太高了。分析师预计，到 2025 财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长 4%。Alphabet (GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期每年盈利将增长 16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（长期每股收益增长的市盈率）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊 (AMZN) 在该指标上遥遥领先，为 2.3 倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个有利于苹果的好论点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的守门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象是，苹果今年夏天的iOS隐私政策变化一直在伤害社交媒体公司，他们的财务报表导致纳斯达克市值在几分钟内飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们是否应该期望为股票支付溢价？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，与几年前相比，苹果的未来一年市盈率肯定有所扩大。但多年来的走高似乎与以下因素一致：（1）对苹果产品和服务的需求增加，（2）更好的利润率，（3）2020年利率下降，以及（4）广泛的股票市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前 AAPL 的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了约三次，并回到了 2021 年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的下一个经常被提及的风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与 11 月至 1 月期间季节性表现较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能认为，由于未来几个季度的艰难竞争，投资者可能很难在未来几个月找到购买 AAPL 的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但是在这里，我相信一点耐心是必要的。首先，仅近期股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太多上涨空间是否已被纳入分析师的财务模型，因此，该股的定价也得到了适当的体现。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队管理的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（这与上述风险 1 相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不会像我在 2021 年 2 月或更好的是，在 2018 年 4 月所认为的那样是千载难逢的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票无缘无故地抛售。但我仍然认为 AAPL 是未来几年值得持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始向一年前的水平重新评估。如果苹果在短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855675027,"gmtCreate":1635376050925,"gmtModify":1635377491227,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855675027","repostId":"2178234410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827145628,"gmtCreate":1634436722582,"gmtModify":1634436764081,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827145628","repostId":"2175114209","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2175114209","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1634289865,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2175114209?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For October 15, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月 15 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2175114209","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  Goldman Sachs Group Inc  (NYSE: GS) to report quarterly earnings at $10.11 per share on revenue of $11.67 billion before the opening bell. Goldman Sachs shares gained 0.5% to $393.10 in pre-market trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b>Goldman Sachs Group Inc </b> (NYSE:GS) to report quarterly earnings at $10.11 per share on revenue of $11.67 billion before the opening bell. Goldman Sachs shares gained 0.5% to $393.10 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li><b>Toyota Motor Corp </b>(NYSE:TM) slashed its global production target for November by 15% due to the pandemic-triggered parts crisis. Toyota cut the production target from 1 million units to 850,000 - 900,000 units. Toyota shares slipped 0.2% to close at $175.51 on Thursday.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b>J B Hunt Transport Services Inc </b> (NASDAQ:JBHT) to have earned $1.79 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. J B Hunt Transport shares gained 2.3% to close at $175.24 on Thursday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Nio Inc - ADR</b> (NYSE:NIO) said it would be able to double annual production capacity at its Hefei facility in 2022, cnEVpost reported. Nio shares rose 1.6% to $36.85 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li><b>Alcoa Corp</b> (NYSE:AA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company announced a $500 million buyback program and initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share. Alcoa shares climbed 5% to $51.02 in pre-market trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>高盛集团公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GS）将公布季度收益，每股 10.11 美元，开盘前营收为 116.7 亿美元。高盛股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.5%，至 393.10 美元。</li><li><b>丰田汽车</b>由于大流行引发的零部件危机，(NYSE:TM) 将 11 月份的全球产量目标削减了 15%。丰田将产量目标从100万辆下调至85万至90万辆。丰田股价周四下跌 0.2%，收于 175.51 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>J B亨特运输服务公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：JBHT）最新季度每股收益 1.79 美元，营收为 30.1 亿美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四，J B Hunt Transport 股价上涨 2.3%，收于 175.24 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>蔚来公司 - ADR</b>据 cnEVpost 报道，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）表示，到 2022 年，其合肥工厂的年产能将增加一倍。蔚来股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.6%，至 36.85 美元。</li><li><b>美国铝业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AA）公布的第三季度业绩好于预期。该公司宣布了一项 5 亿美元的回购计划，并启动了每股 0.10 美元的季度股息。美国铝业股价在盘前交易中上涨 5%，至 51.02 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For October 15, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月 15 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For October 15, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月 15 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-15 17:24</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b>Goldman Sachs Group Inc </b> (NYSE:GS) to report quarterly earnings at $10.11 per share on revenue of $11.67 billion before the opening bell. Goldman Sachs shares gained 0.5% to $393.10 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li><b>Toyota Motor Corp </b>(NYSE:TM) slashed its global production target for November by 15% due to the pandemic-triggered parts crisis. Toyota cut the production target from 1 million units to 850,000 - 900,000 units. Toyota shares slipped 0.2% to close at $175.51 on Thursday.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b>J B Hunt Transport Services Inc </b> (NASDAQ:JBHT) to have earned $1.79 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. J B Hunt Transport shares gained 2.3% to close at $175.24 on Thursday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Nio Inc - ADR</b> (NYSE:NIO) said it would be able to double annual production capacity at its Hefei facility in 2022, cnEVpost reported. Nio shares rose 1.6% to $36.85 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li><b>Alcoa Corp</b> (NYSE:AA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company announced a $500 million buyback program and initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share. Alcoa shares climbed 5% to $51.02 in pre-market trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>高盛集团公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GS）将公布季度收益，每股 10.11 美元，开盘前营收为 116.7 亿美元。高盛股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.5%，至 393.10 美元。</li><li><b>丰田汽车</b>由于大流行引发的零部件危机，(NYSE:TM) 将 11 月份的全球产量目标削减了 15%。丰田将产量目标从100万辆下调至85万至90万辆。丰田股价周四下跌 0.2%，收于 175.51 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>J B亨特运输服务公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：JBHT）最新季度每股收益 1.79 美元，营收为 30.1 亿美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。周四，J B Hunt Transport 股价上涨 2.3%，收于 175.24 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>蔚来公司 - ADR</b>据 cnEVpost 报道，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）表示，到 2022 年，其合肥工厂的年产能将增加一倍。蔚来股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.6%，至 36.85 美元。</li><li><b>美国铝业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AA）公布的第三季度业绩好于预期。该公司宣布了一项 5 亿美元的回购计划，并启动了每股 0.10 美元的季度股息。美国铝业股价在盘前交易中上涨 5%，至 51.02 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛","AA":"美国铝业","TM":"丰田汽车","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","NIO":"蔚来","03160":"华夏日股对冲"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2175114209","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Goldman Sachs Group Inc  (NYSE:GS) to report quarterly earnings at $10.11 per share on revenue of $11.67 billion before the opening bell. Goldman Sachs shares gained 0.5% to $393.10 in pre-market trading.\nToyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM) slashed its global production target for November by 15% due to the pandemic-triggered parts crisis. Toyota cut the production target from 1 million units to 850,000 - 900,000 units. Toyota shares slipped 0.2% to close at $175.51 on Thursday.\nAnalysts are expecting J B Hunt Transport Services Inc  (NASDAQ:JBHT) to have earned $1.79 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. J B Hunt Transport shares gained 2.3% to close at $175.24 on Thursday.\n\n\nNio Inc - ADR (NYSE:NIO) said it would be able to double annual production capacity at its Hefei facility in 2022, cnEVpost reported. Nio shares rose 1.6% to $36.85 in pre-market trading.\nAlcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company announced a $500 million buyback program and initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share. Alcoa shares climbed 5% to $51.02 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"AA":0.9,"TM":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"03160":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824332460,"gmtCreate":1634278010141,"gmtModify":1634278010223,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"Like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","text":"Like $Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824332460","repostId":"1176807279","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176807279","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634203027,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176807279?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 17:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176807279","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple despite reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due ","content":"<p>Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂重申跑赢大盘对苹果的评级后，苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735b28a2fae1ded576148e22cba94a98\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 重申了跑赢大盘对苹果的评级，此前有报道称 iPhone 产量可能会受到全球芯片短缺的阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple&nbsp;despite&nbsp;reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due to the global chip shortage.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂周三敦促投资者逢低买入苹果，尽管有报道称，由于全球芯片短缺，这家科技巨头可能需要将其标志性 iPhone 13 的产量削减多达 1000 万部。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are buyers of any near-term Apple share price weakness on iPhone supply-chain disruption given Apple is likely to receive more supply than competitors, demand isn't perishable,\" Huberty wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂在一份报告中写道：“鉴于苹果可能会获得比竞争对手更多的供应，需求不会消亡，我们是近期因 iPhone 供应链中断而导致苹果股价疲软的买家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If Apple can't meet near-term demand, the shortfall is likely to be even greater at competitors, creating an opportunity for share gains,\" she wrote in a note published Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>她在周三发布的一份报告中写道：“如果苹果无法满足近期需求，竞争对手的缺口可能会更大，从而为股价上涨创造机会。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the Cupertino, Calif., company on&nbsp;Wednesday slipped 0.4% to $140.91.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的公司股价周三下跌 0.4%，至 140.91 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The investment firm maintained its overweight rating on the stock with a price target of $168 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该投资公司维持该股的跑赢大盘评级，目标价为每股 168 美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"While we have not specifically heard of material iPhone production bottlenecks due to semiconductor shortages at Broadcom&nbsp;or Texas Instruments, broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,\" she added.</p><p><blockquote>她补充说：“虽然我们还没有具体听说由于博通或德州仪器的半导体短缺而导致的 iPhone 材料生产瓶颈，但更广泛的供应紧张仍然是许多终端市场的一个真正问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Broadcom and Texas Instruments are manufacturing partners for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>博通和德州仪器是苹果的制造合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果预计今年最后三个月将生产 9000 万部新 iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough components,Bloomberg reported, citing sources.</p><p><blockquote>但彭博社援引消息人士的话报道称，该公司现在告诉制造合作伙伴，由于博通和德州仪器难以提供足够的零部件，总数将会更低。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our FY22 estimates are unlikely to change materially even if revenue and EPS shift across quarters,\" she added.</p><p><blockquote>她补充道：“即使收入和每股收益在不同季度之间发生变化，我们对 2022 财年的预测也不太可能发生重大变化。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-14 17:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂重申跑赢大盘对苹果的评级后，苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735b28a2fae1ded576148e22cba94a98\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 重申了跑赢大盘对苹果的评级，此前有报道称 iPhone 产量可能会受到全球芯片短缺的阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple&nbsp;despite&nbsp;reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due to the global chip shortage.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂周三敦促投资者逢低买入苹果，尽管有报道称，由于全球芯片短缺，这家科技巨头可能需要将其标志性 iPhone 13 的产量削减多达 1000 万部。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are buyers of any near-term Apple share price weakness on iPhone supply-chain disruption given Apple is likely to receive more supply than competitors, demand isn't perishable,\" Huberty wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂在一份报告中写道：“鉴于苹果可能会获得比竞争对手更多的供应，需求不会消亡，我们是近期因 iPhone 供应链中断而导致苹果股价疲软的买家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If Apple can't meet near-term demand, the shortfall is likely to be even greater at competitors, creating an opportunity for share gains,\" she wrote in a note published Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>她在周三发布的一份报告中写道：“如果苹果无法满足近期需求，竞争对手的缺口可能会更大，从而为股价上涨创造机会。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the Cupertino, Calif., company on&nbsp;Wednesday slipped 0.4% to $140.91.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的公司股价周三下跌 0.4%，至 140.91 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The investment firm maintained its overweight rating on the stock with a price target of $168 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该投资公司维持该股的跑赢大盘评级，目标价为每股 168 美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"While we have not specifically heard of material iPhone production bottlenecks due to semiconductor shortages at Broadcom&nbsp;or Texas Instruments, broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,\" she added.</p><p><blockquote>她补充说：“虽然我们还没有具体听说由于博通或德州仪器的半导体短缺而导致的 iPhone 材料生产瓶颈，但更广泛的供应紧张仍然是许多终端市场的一个真正问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Broadcom and Texas Instruments are manufacturing partners for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>博通和德州仪器是苹果的制造合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果预计今年最后三个月将生产 9000 万部新 iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough components,Bloomberg reported, citing sources.</p><p><blockquote>但彭博社援引消息人士的话报道称，该公司现在告诉制造合作伙伴，由于博通和德州仪器难以提供足够的零部件，总数将会更低。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our FY22 estimates are unlikely to change materially even if revenue and EPS shift across quarters,\" she added.</p><p><blockquote>她补充道：“即使收入和每股收益在不同季度之间发生变化，我们对 2022 财年的预测也不太可能发生重大变化。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176807279","content_text":"Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.\n\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple despite reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due to the global chip shortage.\n\"We are buyers of any near-term Apple share price weakness on iPhone supply-chain disruption given Apple is likely to receive more supply than competitors, demand isn't perishable,\" Huberty wrote in a note.\n\"If Apple can't meet near-term demand, the shortfall is likely to be even greater at competitors, creating an opportunity for share gains,\" she wrote in a note published Wednesday.\nShares of the Cupertino, Calif., company on Wednesday slipped 0.4% to $140.91.\nThe investment firm maintained its overweight rating on the stock with a price target of $168 a share.\n\"While we have not specifically heard of material iPhone production bottlenecks due to semiconductor shortages at Broadcom or Texas Instruments, broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,\" she added.\nBroadcom and Texas Instruments are manufacturing partners for Apple.\nApple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year.\nBut it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough components,Bloomberg reported, citing sources.\n\"Our FY22 estimates are unlikely to change materially even if revenue and EPS shift across quarters,\" she added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826356956,"gmtCreate":1633993303711,"gmtModify":1633993303822,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826356956","repostId":"1178640662","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178640662","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633963601,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178640662?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 22:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple iPhone Wait Times Are at Multiyear Highs. What It Means for Sales.<blockquote>苹果 iPhone 等待时间处于多年来的最高水平。这对销售意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178640662","media":"Barrons","summary":"If you want to buy the new iPhone, you’re going to have to wait a while. Usually that would be a goo","content":"<p> If you want to buy the new iPhone, you’re going to have to wait a while. Usually that would be a good sign for Apple stock, but the picture is a bit more complicated this year.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想购买新款 iPhone，就得等一段时间。通常这对苹果股票来说是一个好兆头，但今年的情况有点复杂。</blockquote></p><p> Wait times for the iPhone 13 family of devices remain extended across the board, analysts at&nbsp;Credit Suisse&nbsp;said Friday. Customers who want the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max have to wait more than four weeks, which is the longest in at least four years, the team at the Swiss bank said.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷分析师周五表示，iPhone 13 系列设备的等待时间仍然全面延长。这家瑞士银行的团队表示，想要 iPhone 13 Pro 和 Pro Max 的客户必须等待四周多，这是至少四年来最长的。</blockquote></p><p> For the iPhone 13, the wait time is also long at two to four weeks, the analysts noted, with wait times remaining similar or even growing modestly longer between Sept. 4 and Sept. 8.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，对于 iPhone 13，等待时间也很长，为两到四周，9 月 4 日至 9 月 8 日期间，等待时间保持不变，甚至略有延长。</blockquote></p><p> The analysts’ methodology for calculating waiting periods involves measuring shipping lead times for iPhones purchased directly from Apple online in major markets around the world. They exclude demand through Apple’s physical stores as well as distribution through carriers and other retail outlets.</p><p><blockquote>分析师计算等待期的方法包括测量直接从苹果在线购买的 iPhone 在全球主要市场的发货时间。它们不包括通过苹果实体店的需求，也不包括通过运营商和其他零售店的分销。</blockquote></p><p> Wait times have in the past been viewed as an indicator of demand for devices, which would suggest the iPhone 13 is headed for blowout sales. That would be good for Apple investors, because, as <i>Barron’s</i> reporter Max A. Cherney wrote last month, “Apple stock practically lives and dies on the company’s iPhone sales every year.”</p><p><blockquote>过去，等待时间被视为设备需求的一个指标，这表明iPhone 13将迎来井喷式销售。这对苹果投资者来说是件好事，因为<i>巴伦</i>记者 Max A. Cherney 上个月写道：“苹果的股票几乎每年都取决于该公司 iPhone 的销量”。</blockquote></p><p> But this year, in a world gripped by supply-chain issues, wait times for some models being at multiyear records might not be the clear green flag it would have been in the past.</p><p><blockquote>但今年，在一个被供应链问题困扰的世界里，一些车型创下多年记录的等待时间可能不会像过去那样是明确的绿旗。</blockquote></p><p> “We’d highlight that while wait times are a rough proxy for initial demand, the metric is only one of many variables impacting iPhone sell-through; supply availability is a key unknown, particularly this year,” the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>“分析师说：”我们想强调的是，虽然等待时间是初始需求的粗略代表，但这一指标只是影响 iPhone 销量的众多变量之一；供应可用性是一个关键的未知数，尤其是今年。</blockquote></p><p> They added that it was “encouraging” to see wait times for the more expensive higher-end models such as the Pro and Pro Max remaining most extended, but that supply likely also plays a critical role in longer waits. This makes it even more difficult to analyze underlying demand for the iPhone 13 family.</p><p><blockquote>他们补充说，Pro 和 Pro Max 等更昂贵的高端机型的等待时间仍然最长，这 “令人鼓舞”，但这种供应也可能在等待时间延长方面起着关键作用。这使得分析iPhone 13系列的潜在需求变得更加困难。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse has a price target of $150 on&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(ticker: AAPL) stock, which was trading hands around $142 Monday. The company’s shares fell 0.6% when trading began this week.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的目标价定为 150 美元，周一交易价格约为 142 美元。本周开盘时，该公司股价下跌了 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has been approached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>已联系苹果置评。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple iPhone Wait Times Are at Multiyear Highs. What It Means for Sales.<blockquote>苹果 iPhone 等待时间处于多年来的最高水平。这对销售意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple iPhone Wait Times Are at Multiyear Highs. What It Means for Sales.<blockquote>苹果 iPhone 等待时间处于多年来的最高水平。这对销售意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> If you want to buy the new iPhone, you’re going to have to wait a while. Usually that would be a good sign for Apple stock, but the picture is a bit more complicated this year.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想购买新款 iPhone，就得等一段时间。通常这对苹果股票来说是一个好兆头，但今年的情况有点复杂。</blockquote></p><p> Wait times for the iPhone 13 family of devices remain extended across the board, analysts at&nbsp;Credit Suisse&nbsp;said Friday. Customers who want the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max have to wait more than four weeks, which is the longest in at least four years, the team at the Swiss bank said.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷分析师周五表示，iPhone 13 系列设备的等待时间仍然全面延长。这家瑞士银行的团队表示，想要 iPhone 13 Pro 和 Pro Max 的客户必须等待四周多，这是至少四年来最长的。</blockquote></p><p> For the iPhone 13, the wait time is also long at two to four weeks, the analysts noted, with wait times remaining similar or even growing modestly longer between Sept. 4 and Sept. 8.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，对于 iPhone 13，等待时间也很长，为两到四周，9 月 4 日至 9 月 8 日期间，等待时间保持不变，甚至略有延长。</blockquote></p><p> The analysts’ methodology for calculating waiting periods involves measuring shipping lead times for iPhones purchased directly from Apple online in major markets around the world. They exclude demand through Apple’s physical stores as well as distribution through carriers and other retail outlets.</p><p><blockquote>分析师计算等待期的方法包括测量直接从苹果在线购买的 iPhone 在全球主要市场的发货时间。它们不包括通过苹果实体店的需求，也不包括通过运营商和其他零售店的分销。</blockquote></p><p> Wait times have in the past been viewed as an indicator of demand for devices, which would suggest the iPhone 13 is headed for blowout sales. That would be good for Apple investors, because, as <i>Barron’s</i> reporter Max A. Cherney wrote last month, “Apple stock practically lives and dies on the company’s iPhone sales every year.”</p><p><blockquote>过去，等待时间被视为设备需求的一个指标，这表明iPhone 13将迎来井喷式销售。这对苹果投资者来说是件好事，因为<i>巴伦</i>记者 Max A. Cherney 上个月写道：“苹果的股票几乎每年都取决于该公司 iPhone 的销量”。</blockquote></p><p> But this year, in a world gripped by supply-chain issues, wait times for some models being at multiyear records might not be the clear green flag it would have been in the past.</p><p><blockquote>但今年，在一个被供应链问题困扰的世界里，一些车型创下多年记录的等待时间可能不会像过去那样是明确的绿旗。</blockquote></p><p> “We’d highlight that while wait times are a rough proxy for initial demand, the metric is only one of many variables impacting iPhone sell-through; supply availability is a key unknown, particularly this year,” the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>“分析师说：”我们想强调的是，虽然等待时间是初始需求的粗略代表，但这一指标只是影响 iPhone 销量的众多变量之一；供应可用性是一个关键的未知数，尤其是今年。</blockquote></p><p> They added that it was “encouraging” to see wait times for the more expensive higher-end models such as the Pro and Pro Max remaining most extended, but that supply likely also plays a critical role in longer waits. This makes it even more difficult to analyze underlying demand for the iPhone 13 family.</p><p><blockquote>他们补充说，Pro 和 Pro Max 等更昂贵的高端机型的等待时间仍然最长，这 “令人鼓舞”，但这种供应也可能在等待时间延长方面起着关键作用。这使得分析iPhone 13系列的潜在需求变得更加困难。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse has a price target of $150 on&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(ticker: AAPL) stock, which was trading hands around $142 Monday. The company’s shares fell 0.6% when trading began this week.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的目标价定为 150 美元，周一交易价格约为 142 美元。本周开盘时，该公司股价下跌了 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has been approached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>已联系苹果置评。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-iphone-wait-times-multiyear-highs-51633962094?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-iphone-wait-times-multiyear-highs-51633962094?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178640662","content_text":"If you want to buy the new iPhone, you’re going to have to wait a while. Usually that would be a good sign for Apple stock, but the picture is a bit more complicated this year.\nWait times for the iPhone 13 family of devices remain extended across the board, analysts at Credit Suisse said Friday. Customers who want the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max have to wait more than four weeks, which is the longest in at least four years, the team at the Swiss bank said.\nFor the iPhone 13, the wait time is also long at two to four weeks, the analysts noted, with wait times remaining similar or even growing modestly longer between Sept. 4 and Sept. 8.\nThe analysts’ methodology for calculating waiting periods involves measuring shipping lead times for iPhones purchased directly from Apple online in major markets around the world. They exclude demand through Apple’s physical stores as well as distribution through carriers and other retail outlets.\nWait times have in the past been viewed as an indicator of demand for devices, which would suggest the iPhone 13 is headed for blowout sales. That would be good for Apple investors, because, as Barron’s reporter Max A. Cherney wrote last month, “Apple stock practically lives and dies on the company’s iPhone sales every year.”\nBut this year, in a world gripped by supply-chain issues, wait times for some models being at multiyear records might not be the clear green flag it would have been in the past.\n“We’d highlight that while wait times are a rough proxy for initial demand, the metric is only one of many variables impacting iPhone sell-through; supply availability is a key unknown, particularly this year,” the analysts said.\nThey added that it was “encouraging” to see wait times for the more expensive higher-end models such as the Pro and Pro Max remaining most extended, but that supply likely also plays a critical role in longer waits. This makes it even more difficult to analyze underlying demand for the iPhone 13 family.\nCredit Suisse has a price target of $150 on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock, which was trading hands around $142 Monday. The company’s shares fell 0.6% when trading began this week.\nApple has been approached for comment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821633938,"gmtCreate":1633738598329,"gmtModify":1633738598517,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing.&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing.&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821633938","repostId":"2173926948","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820600301,"gmtCreate":1633387291035,"gmtModify":1633387291255,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820600301","repostId":"1144613093","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866654165,"gmtCreate":1632780229357,"gmtModify":1632797972996,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866654165","repostId":"2170623235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886837710,"gmtCreate":1631579401130,"gmtModify":1631888928536,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886837710","repostId":"1171919128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171919128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631547161,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171919128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple App Store: The Tide Is Turning<blockquote>苹果应用商店：潮流正在转变</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171919128","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nA US Federal District Court judge has ruled mostly in Apple’s favor in their case with Epic","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A US Federal District Court judge has ruled mostly in Apple’s favor in their case with Epic Games.</li>  <li>Despite that, and in conjunction with a recent settlement with Japanese regulators, Apple will be getting rid of their anti-steering rule. This is a bigger change than people think.</li>  <li>The threat to Apple doesn't end with the Epic trial. There are bigger threats coming from the executive and legislative branches in the US, and regulators in Europe and Asia.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/323e8503a813d4996ee819f5591992b8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国联邦地区法院法官在与 Epic Games 的诉讼案中做出了大部分有利于苹果的裁决。</li><li>尽管如此，再加上最近与日本监管机构达成的和解，苹果将取消其反转向规则。这比人们想象的要大。</li><li>对苹果的威胁并没有随着史诗般的审判而结束。更大的威胁来自美国的行政和立法部门，以及欧洲和亚洲的监管机构。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>It Does Not End Here</b></p><p><blockquote><b>事情并没有就此结束</b></blockquote></p><p> For&nbsp;some time now, I&nbsp;have been warning&nbsp;that&nbsp;antitrust law was about to change, and these changes would not be favorable to Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), and that investors need to take these threats seriously. In every one of these attempts, I was rebuffed in the comments by many Apple shareholders telling me that these fears and warnings were overblown. “Long and strong AAPL!” cheerleading seems to be popular.Confirmation bias&nbsp;is a strong thing, and you should fight it every single day.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，我一直警告说，反垄断法即将发生变化，而这些变化对苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）不利，投资者需要认真对待这些威胁。在每一次尝试中，许多苹果股东都在评论中拒绝了我，他们告诉我这些担忧和警告被夸大了。“长久而强壮的苹果!”啦啦队似乎很受欢迎。确认偏见是一件很强的事情，你应该每天都与之斗争。</blockquote></p><p> My last attempt was&nbsp;less than two weeks ago, and I was similarly dismissed, and even accused of being a short-selling tout to boot. That last suggestion is pretty funny to anyone who has had to listen to me drone on about Apple stock the last 16 years. The consequence of those 16 years is that I have a lot of Apple stock, so I take things like this very seriously.</p><p><blockquote>我最后一次尝试是在不到两周前，我同样被驳回，甚至被指责为卖空吹捧。对于过去 16 年来一直听我喋喋不休地谈论苹果股票的人来说，最后一个建议非常有趣。这16年的结果是我有很多苹果股票，所以我非常认真地对待这样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Friday’s decision in Epic v. Apple had one part very bad news for Apple, but mostly a rejection of Epic’s main claim — that iOS is a market unto itself. But the bigger threat continues to be from Congress, where they can change the law in a single session. The House has already passed several bipartisan bills through committee, and three of them seem to have pretty wide support with the rest of the House. A narrower, but just as damaging companion bill is about to start working its way through the Senate. Keep your eyes on Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mike Lee of Utah.</p><p><blockquote>周五在 Epic 诉苹果一案中的判决对苹果来说一方面是个坏消息，但主要是驳回了 Epic 的主要主张--iOS 本身就是一个市场。但更大的威胁仍然来自国会，他们可以在一次会议上改变法律。众议院已经通过了几项两党法案，其中三项似乎得到了众议院其他议员的广泛支持。一项范围更窄，但同样具有破坏性的配套法案即将开始在参议院通过。留意明尼苏达州的艾米·克洛布查尔和犹他州的迈克·李。</blockquote></p><p> Then we have regulatory action in the EU, Apple’s second most important region, where antitrust enforcers are siding with Spotify(NYSE:SPOT)in their dispute over in-app payments. Apple has already settled with Japan over their anti-steering rules. South Korea is forcing Apple and Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)to allow third-party in-app payments. China is a black hole of regulatory mystery.</p><p><blockquote>然后是苹果第二重要的欧盟地区，反垄断执法人员在应用内支付纠纷中站在了 Spotify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPOT）一边。苹果已经就日本的反转向规则与日本达成和解。韩国正在迫使苹果和谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）允许第三方应用内支付。中国是一个监管之谜的黑洞。</blockquote></p><p> The tide is turning on Apple on this issue. If you think this begins and ends with the Epic case, you haven’t been paying attention.</p><p><blockquote>在这个问题上，潮流正在转向苹果。如果你认为这一切都始于史诗般的案件，那你就没注意到了。</blockquote></p><p> Right now the threat is confined to App Store, but this is the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. This new antitrust movement may come for other parts of Apple, like the other pillar of their fast-growing Services segment, AppleCare, and even dig deeper into the way Apple likes to do business.</p><p><blockquote>现在威胁仅限于App Store，但这是开始的结束，而不是结束的开始。这场新的反垄断运动可能会出现在苹果的其他地区，例如其快速增长的服务部门的另一个支柱 AppleCare，甚至更深入地挖掘苹果喜欢做生意的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What The Ruling Says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决内容</b></blockquote></p><p> Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers hewed very closely to existing law, because that’s what usually happens in District Court, the lowest level of the federal system. She mostly had bad news for Epic, and targeted bad news for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）法官非常严格遵守现行法律，因为这通常是联邦系统最低级别的地区法院的情况。她大多给Epic带来坏消息，给苹果带来坏消息。</blockquote></p><p> The case rested on how the court defined the “relevant market” in question. Epic wanted it to be iOS, a market unto itself because of the high walls Apple builds around the ecosystem. Judge Rogers rejected that novel claim pretty handily. But she also rejected Apple’s definition: all gaming transactions, including PCs and consoles. She settled on mobile gaming transactions, so essentially the iOS-Android duopoly of mobile gaming transactions.</p><p><blockquote>该案取决于法院如何定义所涉 “相关市场 ”。Epic希望它成为iOS，一个独立的市场，因为苹果在生态系统周围筑起了高墙。罗杰斯法官很方便地驳回了这一新颖的主张。但她也拒绝了苹果的定义：所有游戏交易，包括个人电脑和游戏机。她选择了移动游戏交易，因此本质上是移动游戏交易的iOS-Android双头垄断。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the meat of the decision that follows from that:</p><p><blockquote>以下是由此产生的决定的实质内容：</blockquote></p><p>   Given the trial record, the Court cannot ultimately conclude that Apple is a monopolist under either federal or state antitrust laws. While the Court finds that Apple enjoys considerable market share of over 55% and extraordinarily high profit margins, these factors alone do not show antitrust conduct. Success is not illegal…    Nonetheless, the trial did show that Apple is engaging in anticompetitive conduct under California’s competition laws. The Court concludes that Apple’s anti-steering provisions hide critical information from consumers and illegally stifle consumer choice. When coupled with Apple’s incipient antitrust violations, these anti-steering provisions are anticompetitive and a nationwide remedy to eliminate those provisions is warranted.  The most important thing to note here is that the problem for Apple is California law, not federal law. Federal law changing is where the real threat remains, and we are already well into that process.</p><p><blockquote>根据审判记录，法院不能最终得出结论，苹果是联邦或州反垄断法下的垄断者。虽然法院认为苹果享有超过55%的相当大的市场份额和异常高的利润率，但这些因素本身并不表明存在反垄断行为。成功并不违法.尽管如此，审判确实表明苹果正在从事加州竞争法规定的反竞争行为。法院的结论是，苹果的反转向条款向消费者隐瞒了关键信息，非法扼杀了消费者的选择。如果再加上苹果刚刚开始的反垄断违规行为，这些反转向条款就会产生反竞争的影响，因此有必要在全国范围内采取补救措施来取消这些条款。这里需要注意的最重要的一点是，苹果的问题是加州法律，而不是联邦法律。联邦法律的改变是真正的威胁所在，我们已经进入了这个过程。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Judge Rogers ruled that Apple has to get rid of their anti-steering rules. App developers will now be allowed to inform users of less expensive options on their website, with a link. We’ll talk about the implications in a moment. Apple charges developers 30% for in-app payments, and the first year of in-app subscriptions (15% thereafter). In-app payments and subscriptions are substantially where all of App Store revenue comes from, about 28% of the Services segment and 5.4% of all revenue in calendar 2020.</p><p><blockquote>罗杰斯法官裁定苹果必须废除他们的反转向规则。现在，应用程序开发者将被允许在他们的网站上通过链接通知用户更便宜的选项。我们稍后再谈其中的含义。苹果向开发者收取30%的应用内支付和第一年的应用内订阅费用（此后为15%）。应用内支付和订阅是App Store所有收入的主要来源，约占服务细分市场的28%，占2020年所有收入的5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Also, in the category of rounding errors, Epic has to pay Apple the $3.6 million they owe them when they breached their contract. That’s about 0.001% of Apple’s 2021 top line.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在舍入错误的类别中，Epic必须向苹果支付他们违反合同时欠他们的360万美元。这约占苹果 2021 年收入的 0.001%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Epic’s Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>史诗游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> If you read&nbsp;my first article&nbsp;about the trial from when the pre-trial filings dropped, you may notice that I was a bit confused about what precisely Epic’s game was here. The foundation of their entire argument — that iOS was a market unto itself — was novel, to say the least. At least one of their lawyers must have informed them of the low likelihood of success on their main claims. Moreover, they burned a lot of pages on arguments not central to their case, but seem more geared towards tarnishing Apple’s reputation.</p><p><blockquote>如果你读了我在审前文件放弃时发表的第一篇关于审判的文章，你可能会注意到我对 Epic 的游戏到底是什么有点困惑。至少可以说，他们整个论点的基础——iOS本身就是一个市场——是新颖的。至少他们的一名律师必须告知他们，他们的主要索赔成功的可能性很低。此外，他们还烧掉了很多篇幅的论点，这些论点与他们的案件无关，但似乎更多的是为了玷污苹果的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> My current understanding is that this case was a publicity stunt. What’s more, it worked. The point was to get this issue into the public conversation. Here I am writing about it, and here you are reading about it. But more importantly, the tide is turning in Washington, and I think the issues raised by this trial have accelerated that.</p><p><blockquote>我目前的理解是，这个案子是一个宣传噱头。更重要的是，它奏效了。重点是让这个问题进入公众讨论。我在这里写它，你在这里读它。但更重要的是，华盛顿的潮流正在转变，我认为这次审判提出的问题加速了这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Anti-Steering Rule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>防转向规则</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many of the App Store rules, the anti-steering rule was part of a multi-year whack-a-mole process where developers tried to find ways to cut out Apple, and Apple closed those holes. Apple fought very hard to keep this rule, but now seems to be capitulating. They settled with Japanese regulators recently on the anti-steering rules as it applied to media subscription apps, and applied the settlement to the rest of the world as well, maybe in anticipation of this ruling. With the Epic ruling, the anti-steering rule is gone.</p><p><blockquote>与许多 App Store 规则一样，反转向规则是多年来“打地鼠”过程的一部分，开发者试图找到消除苹果的方法，而苹果堵住了这些漏洞。苹果非常努力地维护这一规则，但现在似乎要投降了。他们最近与日本监管机构就适用于媒体订阅应用程序的反转向规则达成了和解，并将该和解协议应用于世界其他地区，也许是出于对这一裁决的预期。随着史诗般的裁决，反转向规则消失了。</blockquote></p><p> When a game developer like Epic sells their virtual currency on the App Store, they have a 30% payment fee. When they make the same transaction on their website, it is probably under 3%. This was always what this was about. Epic wanted to have their own in-app payment system to supersede Apple’s, without the friction of sending people to the website. Judge Rogers rejected that, but gave Epic a partial victory by banning Apple’s anti-steering rules.</p><p><blockquote>当像Epic这样的游戏开发商在App Store上出售他们的虚拟货币时，他们有30%的支付费。当他们在自己的网站上进行同样的交易时，可能低于3%。事情一直都是这样。Epic 希望拥有自己的应用内支付系统来取代苹果的系统，而不会有把人送到网站的摩擦。罗杰斯法官驳回了这一请求，但通过禁止苹果的反转向规则，让 Epic 获得了部分胜利。</blockquote></p><p> The anti-steering rules prevented app developers from having text and links to their own much less expensive in-app payments or subscriptions on their websites. This is a real loss for Apple, and puts the whole structure of the two most lucrative payment methods in the App Store at risk.</p><p><blockquote>反转向规则阻止了应用程序开发者在他们的网站上提供文本和链接，指向他们自己便宜得多的应用程序内支付或订阅。这对苹果来说是一个真正的损失，并将应用商店中两种最赚钱的支付方式的整个结构置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s say a gaming company pays a 2.5% processing fee on their website. That means they have 27.5 percentage points of marketing to play with. They could give that entire 27.5% to users in the form of a rebate or freebies. It certainly increases friction to have to leave a game you're having fun with, but if there is a big, friendly, dark-patterned button that says “Want free money?” I think a lot of people would tap that button. What’s more, they get to book the same amount in revenue, and stick the cost down in sales and marketing.</p><p><blockquote>假设一家博彩公司在其网站上支付 2.5% 的手续费。这意味着他们有27.5个百分点的营销机会。他们可以以回扣或免费赠品的形式给用户全部27.5%。不得不离开一款你玩得很开心的游戏，这肯定会增加摩擦，但如果有一个大的、友好的、深色图案的按钮，上面写着 “想要免费的钱？”我想很多人会点击那个按钮。更重要的是，他们可以获得相同的收入，并在销售和营销方面降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> That’s just one example of how companies may decide to go with this. That’s a lot of margin to play with. The reason Apple had this rule in the first place is that they feared someone would find the magic formula that would provide more revenue by eschewing in-app payments altogether, and everyone else would copy them. They had fought very hard to keep this rule for a reason.</p><p><blockquote>这只是公司可能决定如何这样做的一个例子。这是一个很大的回旋余地。苹果最初制定这条规则的原因是，他们担心有人会找到一个神奇的公式，通过完全避免应用内支付来提供更多收入，而其他人会复制它们。他们非常努力地维护这条规则是有原因的。</blockquote></p><p> Just after the news broke, a friend who knows&nbsp;I own both stocks&nbsp;trolled me with this Bloomberg Terminal screenshot:</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，一位知道我持有这两只股票的朋友用彭博终端截图嘲笑我：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78570d7ae73401a933b2359f3dcd47da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)is a pure-play mobile gaming company. The vast majority of their revenues come from in-app payments from iOS and Android, the rest from their website sales. Their cost-of-revenues almost all goes to Apple and Google. In the TTM, they had a 74.4% gross margin. If they pay a 2.5% processing fee for website sales, that means 84% of their transaction value was through iOS and Android. If they could get that to 50-50, that would raise all their margins down to EBT by 10 percentage points. If they could get to 73% of sales on the website, they would have a 90% gross margin.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）是一家纯粹的移动游戏公司。他们的绝大部分收入来自iOS和Android的应用内支付，其余来自网站销售。他们的收入成本几乎全部流向了苹果和谷歌。在TTM，他们的毛利率为74.4%。如果他们为网站销售支付2.5%的手续费，这意味着他们84%的交易价值是通过iOS和Android完成的。如果他们能将这一比例提高到 50-50，这将使他们对 EBT 的所有利润率降低 10 个百分点。如果他们能在网站上获得73%的销售额，他们将有90%的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of money at stake, and a huge incentive for gaming and subscription media companies to figure out how to thread this needle. And that’s all in the absence of further action by the other two branches of government.</p><p><blockquote>这关系到很多钱，对于游戏和订阅媒体公司来说，这是一个巨大的动力来找出如何穿针引线。而这一切都是在政府其他两个部门没有采取进一步行动的情况下发生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Executive Branch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行政部门</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is a good place to discuss the theoretical underpinnings of the new antitrust movement, because two of its leaders now work in the Biden administration. The movement is sometimes referred to as the “neo-Brandeis” movement after Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, because it harkens back to a much earlier era of antitrust enforcement that drastically changed in the 1980s.</p><p><blockquote>这是讨论新反垄断运动理论基础的好地方，因为其两名领导人现在在拜登政府工作。在最高法院大法官路易斯-布兰代斯（Louis Brandeis）之后，这场运动有时被称为 “新布兰代斯 ”运动，因为它让人想起 20 世纪 80 年代发生巨大变化的反垄断执法时代。</blockquote></p><p> In 1978, Robert Bork (yes,that Robert Bork) wrote a very influential book called&nbsp;<i>The Antitrust Paradox</i>. His theory urged a refocusing of enforcement away from competition, and towards consumer benefit as the main test. He argued that antitrust enforcement was propping up smaller, less efficient companies to the detriment of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>1978年，罗伯特·博克（没错，就是那个罗伯特·博克）写了一本很有影响力的书<i>反垄断悖论</i>他的理论敦促将执法重点从竞争转向消费者利益作为主要考验。他认为，反垄断执法正在扶持规模较小、效率较低的公司，从而损害经济。</blockquote></p><p> The 1982 AT&amp;T breakup consent decree became the prototype for the new enforcement. By controlling local and long distance telecommunication, as well as the equipment, AT&amp;T had been underinvesting and overcharging for decades. Their breakup brought an explosion of investment into telecommunications, and brought down prices quickly for landline service and equipment. That became the limit of antitrust enforcement.</p><p><blockquote>1982年美国电话电报公司分手同意法令成为新执法的原型。通过控制本地和长途电信以及设备，AT&amp;T几十年来一直投资不足，收费过高。他们的分手带来了电信投资的爆炸式增长，并迅速降低了固定电话服务和设备的价格。这成为反垄断执法的极限。</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on consumer benefit has affected competition, and that’s what the neo-Brandeis movement hopes to change. They want antitrust enforcement to return to the way it was a century ago, with more of a focus on how large companies affect competition. Lina Khan, a law professor at Columbia, now runs the FTC, the primary antitrust enforcer in the federal government. Her 2017 law review article, “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox” was the spark that lit this fire. Her colleague at Columbia Law, Tim Wu, is also one of the leaders of this movement. He is a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and his fingerprints are all over&nbsp;the July competition executive order.</p><p><blockquote>但是，对消费者利益的关注影响了竞争，而这正是新布兰代斯运动希望改变的。他们希望反垄断执法回到一个世纪前的样子，更多地关注大公司如何影响竞争。哥伦比亚大学法学教授莉娜·汗 (Lina Khan) 现任联邦贸易委员会 (FTC) 负责人，该委员会是联邦政府的主要反垄断执行机构。她 2017 年在《法律评论》上发表的文章《亚马逊的反垄断悖论》是点燃这场大火的火花。她在哥伦比亚律师事务所的同事Tim Wu也是这场运动的领导者之一。他是白宫经济顾问委员会的成员，他的指纹遍布7月份的竞争行政命令。</blockquote></p><p> The order was very wide ranging, with 72 initiatives covering 14 departments and agencies. Most of it does not relate to Apple, but it gives you an idea of the wide breadth of the order. As it relates to Apple:</p><p><blockquote>该命令范围非常广泛，有72项举措，涵盖14个部门和机构。其中大部分与苹果无关，但它让你了解了该秩序的广泛性。就苹果而言：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Right-to-repair is a huge threat to the other pillar of Services, AppleCare, which I estimate at 25%-30% of the segment. But more than that, it would change the way Apple makes devices. Apple squeezes out efficiency gains by attaching pooled memory directly to the main processor die, and by soldering storage into the motherboard. Both of these would likely be prohibited to them, and the devices would suffer.</li>  <li>The FTC is two months into a yearlong frisk of the mobile app ecosystem. Based on previous writings, Lina Khan will likely recommend third party app stores, “sideloading” directly from the web, and an end to the in-app payments monopoly.</li> </ul> Executive branch action is always subject to court challenges, and they can take very long to implement. But Congress can change the law in a single session. And they are already into that process.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维修权对另一个服务支柱 AppleCare 构成了巨大威胁，我估计 AppleCare 占该细分市场的 25%-30%。但更重要的是，它将改变苹果制造设备的方式。苹果通过将共享内存直接连接到主处理器芯片，并将存储器焊接到主板上来挤压效率提升。这两者都可能被禁止，设备也会受到影响。</li><li>联邦贸易委员会对移动应用生态系统进行了为期一年的搜索，已经进行了两个月。根据之前的文章，Lina Khan 可能会推荐第三方应用商店、直接从网络 “侧载 ”以及结束应用内支付垄断。</li></ul>行政部门的行动总是受到法庭质疑，而且可能需要很长时间才能实施。但是国会可以在一次会议上改变法律。他们已经进入了这个过程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Legislative Branch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>立法部门</b></blockquote></p><p> Since there are two houses of Congress, this issue is off on two tracks. The House Judiciary Committee recently passed a suite of bipartisan bills. Of the ones that I think have a good likelihood of passing the full House, here’s how it affects Apple:</p><p><blockquote>由于国会有两院，这个问题有两个轨道。众议院司法委员会最近通过了一系列两党法案。在我认为很有可能在众议院获得通过的法案中，以下是它对苹果的影响：</blockquote></p><p> They would be required to allow third party app stores, sideloading, and third party payments in the Apple App Store.</p><p><blockquote>他们需要允许第三方应用商店、侧载和苹果应用商店中的第三方支付。</blockquote></p><p> Restricting Apple’s ability to acquire smaller companies. In the past 6 years, Apple has bought around 100 companies, which works out to about one every three weeks on average. It looks like they had been accelerating since fiscal 2018, but then abruptly stopped in fiscal 2021. The reason is the new leader of the FTC.</p><p><blockquote>限制苹果收购小公司的能力。在过去的6年里，苹果已经收购了大约100家公司，平均每三周就有一家。看起来他们自 2018 财年以来一直在加速发展，但在 2021 财年突然停止。原因是联邦贸易委员会的新领导人。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2fc9a2578663cc746fdb19ca19dea4c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The big bulge you see there in 2014 is the Beats acquisition at $3 billion, which remains the exception. Otherwise, Apple buys very small companies for tens or hundreds of millions, usually shuts down any products they may have, and absorbs the talent and IP into Apple proper. Apple’s chip design unit, a cornerstone of their current success, began this way in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>你在2014年看到的最大突出是以30亿美元收购Beats，这仍然是一个例外。否则，苹果以几千万、上亿的价格收购非常小的公司，通常关闭他们可能拥有的任何产品，将人才和IP吸收到苹果适当的地方。苹果的芯片设计部门是他们目前成功的基石，它始于 2008 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No more private APIs.</b>This would mean everything, like the Apple Pay-enabling NFC chip, would be open to competitors.</p><p><blockquote><b>不再有私有API。</b>这意味着一切，比如支持苹果支付的NFC芯片，都将向竞争对手开放。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No more discriminatory rules.</b>Apple doesn’t force real-world product and service providers like Uber(NYSE:UBER)to use in-app payments. Apple would either have to try and get Uber to pay them 30%, or drop the requirement altogether.</p><p><blockquote><b>不再有歧视性的规则。</b>苹果并没有强迫 Uber（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）等现实世界的产品和服务提供商使用应用内支付。苹果要么试图让优步支付他们30%，要么完全放弃这一要求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The end of the Google search deal.</b>Google currently pays Apple a purported $12 billion a year to make Google the default search engine on iOS. This cash goes directly to EBT.</p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索交易的结束。</b>谷歌目前每年向苹果支付120亿美元，让谷歌成为iOS上的默认搜索引擎。这笔现金直接流向EBT。</blockquote></p><p> <b>They would have to expose more user data to developers.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们将不得不向开发人员公开更多的用户数据。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Formalizing the anti-steering decision.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使反转向决策形式化。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Anti-retaliation provision.</b>If these bills were law, Epic would still be on the App Store while they sued Apple.</p><p><blockquote><b>反报复条款。</b>如果这些法案成为法律，当Epic起诉苹果时，他们仍将在App Store上。</blockquote></p><p> After the House is done wrangling over budget reconciliation, I think these bills will hit the House floor this fall or winter, and I think that they have a high likelihood of passing in something like their current form.</p><p><blockquote>在众议院结束对预算协调的争论后，我认为这些法案将在今年秋天或冬天提交众议院，我认为它们很有可能以目前的形式获得通过。</blockquote></p><p> But bills also have to clear the Senate, and they move slower. Things are just getting started there. The big movers in the Senate are Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mike Lee of Utah. Klobuchar has&nbsp;written a long book&nbsp;on the subject, and it is not friendly towards Apple. She has also authored a new bill, Open App Markets Act. It is more narrow than the House suite, but not by much. It would still force Apple to allow third party app stores, sideloading, and third party in-app payments. They would also have to get rid of their private APIs. The bill is narrower than the House suite, and less of a threat to Apple, but still would mean the end of App Store as a driver of growth.<i>The Senate bill is the better outcome for Apple, and it is still terrible.</i></p><p><blockquote>但法案也必须通过参议院，而且进展较慢。事情才刚刚开始。参议院的大人物是明尼苏达州的艾米·克洛布查尔和犹他州的迈克·李。克洛布查尔就此主题写了一本长书，对苹果并不友好。她还起草了一项新法案《开放应用市场法案》。它比房子套房窄，但也窄不了多少。它仍将迫使苹果允许第三方应用商店、侧载和第三方应用内支付。他们还必须摆脱他们的私有API。该法案比众议院的法案范围更窄，对苹果的威胁也更小，但仍意味着应用商店作为增长驱动力的终结。<i>参议院法案对苹果来说是更好的结果，但仍然很可怕。</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that we will see something pass before the next Presidential election, or even in this Congressional session. The best Apple shareholders can hope for is that the final bill gets watered down considerably.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，在下届总统选举之前，甚至在本届国会会议上，我们会看到一些东西通过。苹果股东所能希望的最好结果就是最终法案被大幅淡化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outside The US</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国境外</b></blockquote></p><p> This is in no way limited to the US. We already discussed the Japanese settlement, and South Korea is forcing Apple and Google to allow third party in-app payments. The case that is farthest along in the EU is Spotify’s, which would force Apple to not charge fees to competing services, so that means music, podcasts, games, video and fitness.</p><p><blockquote>这绝不仅限于美国。我们已经讨论过日本的和解，韩国正在迫使苹果和谷歌允许第三方应用内支付。欧盟最受欢迎的案例是 Spotify，这将迫使苹果不向竞争服务收取费用，这意味着音乐、播客、游戏、视频和健身。</blockquote></p><p> The Chinese Communist Party remains the&nbsp;second biggest tail risk in the world&nbsp;after climate change. Apple’s regulatory risk there is uniquely high, both on the supply and demand sides. Apple has already given into them by not providing their Chinese customers with the same level of privacy as everyone else. With the mood in China right now, who knows where that goes.</p><p><blockquote>中国共产党仍然是仅次于气候变化的世界第二大尾部风险。苹果在那里的监管风险在供需双方都是独一无二的高。苹果已经屈服于他们，没有为他们的中国客户提供与其他人相同水平的隐私。以中国现在的情绪，谁知道会走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Losing Control Of App Store Looks Like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>失去对App Store的控制是什么样子</b></blockquote></p><p> Stone Fox Capital here at Seeking Alpha is&nbsp;out with an article&nbsp;pivoting off Katy Huberty's estimation of a 2% earnings loss if the top 20 apps on the App Store were able to eschew in-app payments. Stone Fox would also like you to care about that seemingly small number:</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha 的 Stone Fox Capital 发表了一篇文章，重点介绍了凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 的估计，如果 App Store 上排名前 20 的应用程序能够避免应用内支付，将导致 2% 的收益损失。石狐也希望你关心一下这个看似微不足道的数字：</blockquote></p><p>   Apple won most of their legal case with Epic Games based on the ruling announced on September 10, but the tech giant lost the ultimate battle. The stock remains priced for perfection while the company continues to have growth paths chipped away from the business.  My last article on this subject was called “Chipping Away at App Store.” This is what is happening and the trend is now clear. There is a mood globally to take Apple down a peg, and it is happening too slowly for many people to realize it is happening.</p><p><blockquote>根据9月10日宣布的裁决，苹果赢得了与Epic Games的大部分法律诉讼，但这家科技巨头输掉了最终的战斗。该股的定价仍然非常完美，而该公司的增长路径继续从业务中剥离。我上一篇关于这个主题的文章叫做 “在 App Store 削减成本”。这就是正在发生的事情，趋势现在很清楚。全球范围内都有一种将苹果降级的情绪，但这种情绪发生得太慢，许多人都没有意识到这种情况正在发生。</blockquote></p><p> My own way of modeling the worst case is through my DCF model. It’s modeled as a 25% hit to Services in the first year, with services gross margin reduced from 68% to 65%, followed by a slightly increased growth rate in the segment because of composition effects — the rest of Services grows faster than App Store. I used to model that happening in fiscal 2024, but I have moved that up to fiscal 2023, beginning less than 13 months from now.</p><p><blockquote>我自己模拟最坏情况的方法是通过我的DCF模型。它的模型是，服务在第一年受到 25% 的打击，服务毛利率从 68% 降至 65%，随后由于构成效应，该细分市场的增长率略有上升--其余服务的增长速度都快于 App Store。我曾经模拟 2024 财年会发生这种情况，但我已将其推迟到 2023 财年，距离现在不到 13 个月就开始了。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the effect on fair value on my base case:</p><p><blockquote>以下是对我的基本案例的公允价值的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94b635fe7a2473aafe36bd095a1206b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Even with the very slow start for the reason Stone Fox says — the share price has gotten way out ahead of cash flows — my base case still shows an 11% CAGR in fair value through the end of fiscal 2025. The App Store collapse takes that down to an 8% CAGR, 12% lower by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>即使出于 Stone Fox 所说的原因——股价已经远远领先于现金流——我的基本案例仍然显示，到 2025 财年末，公允价值复合年增长率仍为 11%。App Store 的崩溃使其复合年增长率降至 8%，到 2025 年将下降 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Circling back, Stone Fox puts a button on this more succinctly than I can:</p><p><blockquote>石狐转过身，比我更简洁地按下了一个按钮：</blockquote></p><p>   The key investor takeaway is that Apple has a bright future. The company will continue generating profits with operating cash flows topping $100 billion annually, but the tech giant will struggle to generate the growth needed to warrant the current stock price. The 2% hit to earnings might not seem meaningful, but the amount is very harmful to a stock priced for perfection.  <b>How To Take This Seriously</b></p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是苹果拥有光明的未来。该公司将继续创造利润，每年运营现金流超过 1000 亿美元，但这家科技巨头将难以实现维持当前股价所需的增长。盈利下跌 2% 可能看起来没有意义，但这个数额对于一只定价完美的股票来说非常有害。<b>如何认真对待这一点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my last article on this subject, someone cheekily replied in the comments, “‘Please take this seriously.’ What does that even mean?” That’s a good question. The first part of the answer is to stop pretending it’s not happening.</p><p><blockquote>在我上一篇关于这个话题的文章中，有人在评论中厚颜无耻地回答说：“'请认真对待这件事。这到底是什么意思？”问得好。答案的第一部分是停止假装它没有发生。</blockquote></p><p> “If your time horizon is short, now is a good time to take profits.” I have been using that phrase frequently since Apple hit $140. The last chart just formalizes it with math, but my opinion is that Apple will remain range-bound for some time, between $125 and $155, roughly. I still mean it: if your time horizon is short, now is a good time to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你的时间范围很短，现在是获利了结的好时机”。自从苹果达到140美元以来，我就经常使用这个短语。最后一张图表只是用数学形式化了它，但我的观点是，苹果将在一段时间内保持在区间范围内，大约在125美元到155美元之间。我还是这个意思：如果你的时间范围很短，现在是获利了结的好时机。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But I also believe that no other company is as prepared for the future of technology, regardless of what that brings. That is a&nbsp;far longer discussion. I have been buying Apple shares on the dip since 2005, which is two splits ago. My last buy was in January 2019, when Apple reported that they would miss guidance for the first time in many years. At the time, the commentariat was telling me that Apple’s best days were behind them. I tried to explain that Apple was in a transitional phase, part of a strategy they launched around 2015 to focus more on the growth of the iPhone user base than sales. The strategy would pay off soon, I predicted, and it did in fiscal 2021. That seems like a very long time ago now.</p><p><blockquote>但我也相信，没有其他公司像现在这样为技术的未来做好准备，不管它会带来什么。这是一个更长的讨论。自 2005 年（两次拆分前）以来，我一直在逢低买入苹果股票。我最后一次购买是在 2019 年 1 月，当时苹果报告称他们将多年来首次错过指导。当时，评论员告诉我，苹果最好的日子已经过去了。我试图解释说，苹果正处于过渡阶段，这是他们在2015年左右推出的战略的一部分，旨在更多地关注iPhone用户群的增长，而不是销售。我预测，这一策略很快就会得到回报，2021 财年也确实如此。现在看来那是很久以前的事了。</blockquote></p><p> A consequence of buying the dip from 2005 to 2019 is that I own way too many Apple shares that I could never bring myself to sell. I am massively overweight Apple. There is a “What To Do With The Apple Shares” clause in my will. It is our largest asset, worth more than the house. That has not made me nervous until the last few months, when the tide seemed to start turning on Apple on this issue. I also used to be someone who did not take this threat seriously. I am going to start shaving my position as opportunities present themselves, and one may happen this week with the iPhone launch on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>从 2005 年到 2019 年逢低买入的一个后果是，我持有太多苹果股票，我永远无法出售。我是跑赢大盘·苹果。我的遗嘱中有 “如何处理苹果股份 ”条款。这是我们最大的资产，比房子还值钱。这并没有让我紧张，直到最近几个月，在这个问题上，潮流似乎开始转向苹果。我也曾经是一个不把这种威胁当回事的人。随着机会的出现，我将开始削减我的头寸，随着周二iPhone的发布，一个机会可能会在本周发生。</blockquote></p><p> <i>To be clear, I will remain overweight Apple, just less so, and I remain bullish in the long term. But I no longer feel the safety I once did with this wildly overweight position.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>需要明确的是，我仍将是跑赢大盘·苹果，只是不那么看好，而且从长远来看，我仍然看好。但是我不再感受到我曾经在这个疯狂的跑赢大盘位置上的安全感。</i></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, if you are a long term investor who does not have a massively overweight position, watch, wait and fight confirmation bias every day. If you think this begins and ends with Epic, you haven’t been paying attention.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，如果您是一个没有大量跑赢大盘头寸的长期投资者，请每天观察、等待并对抗确认偏见。如果你认为这一切都始于史诗，也终于史诗，那你就没注意到了。</blockquote></p><p> Please take this seriously.</p><p><blockquote>请认真对待这件事。</blockquote></p><p> I will be back in a few days with hopefully happier news from the iPhone launch on Tuesday. The big question is whether Apple can begin shipping iPhone before the quarter is out.</p><p><blockquote>几天后我会回来，希望能从周二的iPhone发布会上带来更多好消息。最大的问题是苹果能否在季度结束前开始发货 iPhone。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple App Store: The Tide Is Turning<blockquote>苹果应用商店：潮流正在转变</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple App Store: The Tide Is Turning<blockquote>苹果应用商店：潮流正在转变</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A US Federal District Court judge has ruled mostly in Apple’s favor in their case with Epic Games.</li>  <li>Despite that, and in conjunction with a recent settlement with Japanese regulators, Apple will be getting rid of their anti-steering rule. This is a bigger change than people think.</li>  <li>The threat to Apple doesn't end with the Epic trial. There are bigger threats coming from the executive and legislative branches in the US, and regulators in Europe and Asia.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/323e8503a813d4996ee819f5591992b8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国联邦地区法院法官在与 Epic Games 的诉讼案中做出了大部分有利于苹果的裁决。</li><li>尽管如此，再加上最近与日本监管机构达成的和解，苹果将取消其反转向规则。这比人们想象的要大。</li><li>对苹果的威胁并没有随着史诗般的审判而结束。更大的威胁来自美国的行政和立法部门，以及欧洲和亚洲的监管机构。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>It Does Not End Here</b></p><p><blockquote><b>事情并没有就此结束</b></blockquote></p><p> For&nbsp;some time now, I&nbsp;have been warning&nbsp;that&nbsp;antitrust law was about to change, and these changes would not be favorable to Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), and that investors need to take these threats seriously. In every one of these attempts, I was rebuffed in the comments by many Apple shareholders telling me that these fears and warnings were overblown. “Long and strong AAPL!” cheerleading seems to be popular.Confirmation bias&nbsp;is a strong thing, and you should fight it every single day.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，我一直警告说，反垄断法即将发生变化，而这些变化对苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）不利，投资者需要认真对待这些威胁。在每一次尝试中，许多苹果股东都在评论中拒绝了我，他们告诉我这些担忧和警告被夸大了。“长久而强壮的苹果!”啦啦队似乎很受欢迎。确认偏见是一件很强的事情，你应该每天都与之斗争。</blockquote></p><p> My last attempt was&nbsp;less than two weeks ago, and I was similarly dismissed, and even accused of being a short-selling tout to boot. That last suggestion is pretty funny to anyone who has had to listen to me drone on about Apple stock the last 16 years. The consequence of those 16 years is that I have a lot of Apple stock, so I take things like this very seriously.</p><p><blockquote>我最后一次尝试是在不到两周前，我同样被驳回，甚至被指责为卖空吹捧。对于过去 16 年来一直听我喋喋不休地谈论苹果股票的人来说，最后一个建议非常有趣。这16年的结果是我有很多苹果股票，所以我非常认真地对待这样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Friday’s decision in Epic v. Apple had one part very bad news for Apple, but mostly a rejection of Epic’s main claim — that iOS is a market unto itself. But the bigger threat continues to be from Congress, where they can change the law in a single session. The House has already passed several bipartisan bills through committee, and three of them seem to have pretty wide support with the rest of the House. A narrower, but just as damaging companion bill is about to start working its way through the Senate. Keep your eyes on Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mike Lee of Utah.</p><p><blockquote>周五在 Epic 诉苹果一案中的判决对苹果来说一方面是个坏消息，但主要是驳回了 Epic 的主要主张--iOS 本身就是一个市场。但更大的威胁仍然来自国会，他们可以在一次会议上改变法律。众议院已经通过了几项两党法案，其中三项似乎得到了众议院其他议员的广泛支持。一项范围更窄，但同样具有破坏性的配套法案即将开始在参议院通过。留意明尼苏达州的艾米·克洛布查尔和犹他州的迈克·李。</blockquote></p><p> Then we have regulatory action in the EU, Apple’s second most important region, where antitrust enforcers are siding with Spotify(NYSE:SPOT)in their dispute over in-app payments. Apple has already settled with Japan over their anti-steering rules. South Korea is forcing Apple and Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)to allow third-party in-app payments. China is a black hole of regulatory mystery.</p><p><blockquote>然后是苹果第二重要的欧盟地区，反垄断执法人员在应用内支付纠纷中站在了 Spotify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPOT）一边。苹果已经就日本的反转向规则与日本达成和解。韩国正在迫使苹果和谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）允许第三方应用内支付。中国是一个监管之谜的黑洞。</blockquote></p><p> The tide is turning on Apple on this issue. If you think this begins and ends with the Epic case, you haven’t been paying attention.</p><p><blockquote>在这个问题上，潮流正在转向苹果。如果你认为这一切都始于史诗般的案件，那你就没注意到了。</blockquote></p><p> Right now the threat is confined to App Store, but this is the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. This new antitrust movement may come for other parts of Apple, like the other pillar of their fast-growing Services segment, AppleCare, and even dig deeper into the way Apple likes to do business.</p><p><blockquote>现在威胁仅限于App Store，但这是开始的结束，而不是结束的开始。这场新的反垄断运动可能会出现在苹果的其他地区，例如其快速增长的服务部门的另一个支柱 AppleCare，甚至更深入地挖掘苹果喜欢做生意的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What The Ruling Says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决内容</b></blockquote></p><p> Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers hewed very closely to existing law, because that’s what usually happens in District Court, the lowest level of the federal system. She mostly had bad news for Epic, and targeted bad news for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）法官非常严格遵守现行法律，因为这通常是联邦系统最低级别的地区法院的情况。她大多给Epic带来坏消息，给苹果带来坏消息。</blockquote></p><p> The case rested on how the court defined the “relevant market” in question. Epic wanted it to be iOS, a market unto itself because of the high walls Apple builds around the ecosystem. Judge Rogers rejected that novel claim pretty handily. But she also rejected Apple’s definition: all gaming transactions, including PCs and consoles. She settled on mobile gaming transactions, so essentially the iOS-Android duopoly of mobile gaming transactions.</p><p><blockquote>该案取决于法院如何定义所涉 “相关市场 ”。Epic希望它成为iOS，一个独立的市场，因为苹果在生态系统周围筑起了高墙。罗杰斯法官很方便地驳回了这一新颖的主张。但她也拒绝了苹果的定义：所有游戏交易，包括个人电脑和游戏机。她选择了移动游戏交易，因此本质上是移动游戏交易的iOS-Android双头垄断。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the meat of the decision that follows from that:</p><p><blockquote>以下是由此产生的决定的实质内容：</blockquote></p><p>   Given the trial record, the Court cannot ultimately conclude that Apple is a monopolist under either federal or state antitrust laws. While the Court finds that Apple enjoys considerable market share of over 55% and extraordinarily high profit margins, these factors alone do not show antitrust conduct. Success is not illegal…    Nonetheless, the trial did show that Apple is engaging in anticompetitive conduct under California’s competition laws. The Court concludes that Apple’s anti-steering provisions hide critical information from consumers and illegally stifle consumer choice. When coupled with Apple’s incipient antitrust violations, these anti-steering provisions are anticompetitive and a nationwide remedy to eliminate those provisions is warranted.  The most important thing to note here is that the problem for Apple is California law, not federal law. Federal law changing is where the real threat remains, and we are already well into that process.</p><p><blockquote>根据审判记录，法院不能最终得出结论，苹果是联邦或州反垄断法下的垄断者。虽然法院认为苹果享有超过55%的相当大的市场份额和异常高的利润率，但这些因素本身并不表明存在反垄断行为。成功并不违法.尽管如此，审判确实表明苹果正在从事加州竞争法规定的反竞争行为。法院的结论是，苹果的反转向条款向消费者隐瞒了关键信息，非法扼杀了消费者的选择。如果再加上苹果刚刚开始的反垄断违规行为，这些反转向条款就会产生反竞争的影响，因此有必要在全国范围内采取补救措施来取消这些条款。这里需要注意的最重要的一点是，苹果的问题是加州法律，而不是联邦法律。联邦法律的改变是真正的威胁所在，我们已经进入了这个过程。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Judge Rogers ruled that Apple has to get rid of their anti-steering rules. App developers will now be allowed to inform users of less expensive options on their website, with a link. We’ll talk about the implications in a moment. Apple charges developers 30% for in-app payments, and the first year of in-app subscriptions (15% thereafter). In-app payments and subscriptions are substantially where all of App Store revenue comes from, about 28% of the Services segment and 5.4% of all revenue in calendar 2020.</p><p><blockquote>罗杰斯法官裁定苹果必须废除他们的反转向规则。现在，应用程序开发者将被允许在他们的网站上通过链接通知用户更便宜的选项。我们稍后再谈其中的含义。苹果向开发者收取30%的应用内支付和第一年的应用内订阅费用（此后为15%）。应用内支付和订阅是App Store所有收入的主要来源，约占服务细分市场的28%，占2020年所有收入的5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Also, in the category of rounding errors, Epic has to pay Apple the $3.6 million they owe them when they breached their contract. That’s about 0.001% of Apple’s 2021 top line.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在舍入错误的类别中，Epic必须向苹果支付他们违反合同时欠他们的360万美元。这约占苹果 2021 年收入的 0.001%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Epic’s Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>史诗游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> If you read&nbsp;my first article&nbsp;about the trial from when the pre-trial filings dropped, you may notice that I was a bit confused about what precisely Epic’s game was here. The foundation of their entire argument — that iOS was a market unto itself — was novel, to say the least. At least one of their lawyers must have informed them of the low likelihood of success on their main claims. Moreover, they burned a lot of pages on arguments not central to their case, but seem more geared towards tarnishing Apple’s reputation.</p><p><blockquote>如果你读了我在审前文件放弃时发表的第一篇关于审判的文章，你可能会注意到我对 Epic 的游戏到底是什么有点困惑。至少可以说，他们整个论点的基础——iOS本身就是一个市场——是新颖的。至少他们的一名律师必须告知他们，他们的主要索赔成功的可能性很低。此外，他们还烧掉了很多篇幅的论点，这些论点与他们的案件无关，但似乎更多的是为了玷污苹果的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> My current understanding is that this case was a publicity stunt. What’s more, it worked. The point was to get this issue into the public conversation. Here I am writing about it, and here you are reading about it. But more importantly, the tide is turning in Washington, and I think the issues raised by this trial have accelerated that.</p><p><blockquote>我目前的理解是，这个案子是一个宣传噱头。更重要的是，它奏效了。重点是让这个问题进入公众讨论。我在这里写它，你在这里读它。但更重要的是，华盛顿的潮流正在转变，我认为这次审判提出的问题加速了这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Anti-Steering Rule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>防转向规则</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many of the App Store rules, the anti-steering rule was part of a multi-year whack-a-mole process where developers tried to find ways to cut out Apple, and Apple closed those holes. Apple fought very hard to keep this rule, but now seems to be capitulating. They settled with Japanese regulators recently on the anti-steering rules as it applied to media subscription apps, and applied the settlement to the rest of the world as well, maybe in anticipation of this ruling. With the Epic ruling, the anti-steering rule is gone.</p><p><blockquote>与许多 App Store 规则一样，反转向规则是多年来“打地鼠”过程的一部分，开发者试图找到消除苹果的方法，而苹果堵住了这些漏洞。苹果非常努力地维护这一规则，但现在似乎要投降了。他们最近与日本监管机构就适用于媒体订阅应用程序的反转向规则达成了和解，并将该和解协议应用于世界其他地区，也许是出于对这一裁决的预期。随着史诗般的裁决，反转向规则消失了。</blockquote></p><p> When a game developer like Epic sells their virtual currency on the App Store, they have a 30% payment fee. When they make the same transaction on their website, it is probably under 3%. This was always what this was about. Epic wanted to have their own in-app payment system to supersede Apple’s, without the friction of sending people to the website. Judge Rogers rejected that, but gave Epic a partial victory by banning Apple’s anti-steering rules.</p><p><blockquote>当像Epic这样的游戏开发商在App Store上出售他们的虚拟货币时，他们有30%的支付费。当他们在自己的网站上进行同样的交易时，可能低于3%。事情一直都是这样。Epic 希望拥有自己的应用内支付系统来取代苹果的系统，而不会有把人送到网站的摩擦。罗杰斯法官驳回了这一请求，但通过禁止苹果的反转向规则，让 Epic 获得了部分胜利。</blockquote></p><p> The anti-steering rules prevented app developers from having text and links to their own much less expensive in-app payments or subscriptions on their websites. This is a real loss for Apple, and puts the whole structure of the two most lucrative payment methods in the App Store at risk.</p><p><blockquote>反转向规则阻止了应用程序开发者在他们的网站上提供文本和链接，指向他们自己便宜得多的应用程序内支付或订阅。这对苹果来说是一个真正的损失，并将应用商店中两种最赚钱的支付方式的整个结构置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s say a gaming company pays a 2.5% processing fee on their website. That means they have 27.5 percentage points of marketing to play with. They could give that entire 27.5% to users in the form of a rebate or freebies. It certainly increases friction to have to leave a game you're having fun with, but if there is a big, friendly, dark-patterned button that says “Want free money?” I think a lot of people would tap that button. What’s more, they get to book the same amount in revenue, and stick the cost down in sales and marketing.</p><p><blockquote>假设一家博彩公司在其网站上支付 2.5% 的手续费。这意味着他们有27.5个百分点的营销机会。他们可以以回扣或免费赠品的形式给用户全部27.5%。不得不离开一款你玩得很开心的游戏，这肯定会增加摩擦，但如果有一个大的、友好的、深色图案的按钮，上面写着 “想要免费的钱？”我想很多人会点击那个按钮。更重要的是，他们可以获得相同的收入，并在销售和营销方面降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> That’s just one example of how companies may decide to go with this. That’s a lot of margin to play with. The reason Apple had this rule in the first place is that they feared someone would find the magic formula that would provide more revenue by eschewing in-app payments altogether, and everyone else would copy them. They had fought very hard to keep this rule for a reason.</p><p><blockquote>这只是公司可能决定如何这样做的一个例子。这是一个很大的回旋余地。苹果最初制定这条规则的原因是，他们担心有人会找到一个神奇的公式，通过完全避免应用内支付来提供更多收入，而其他人会复制它们。他们非常努力地维护这条规则是有原因的。</blockquote></p><p> Just after the news broke, a friend who knows&nbsp;I own both stocks&nbsp;trolled me with this Bloomberg Terminal screenshot:</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，一位知道我持有这两只股票的朋友用彭博终端截图嘲笑我：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78570d7ae73401a933b2359f3dcd47da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)is a pure-play mobile gaming company. The vast majority of their revenues come from in-app payments from iOS and Android, the rest from their website sales. Their cost-of-revenues almost all goes to Apple and Google. In the TTM, they had a 74.4% gross margin. If they pay a 2.5% processing fee for website sales, that means 84% of their transaction value was through iOS and Android. If they could get that to 50-50, that would raise all their margins down to EBT by 10 percentage points. If they could get to 73% of sales on the website, they would have a 90% gross margin.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）是一家纯粹的移动游戏公司。他们的绝大部分收入来自iOS和Android的应用内支付，其余来自网站销售。他们的收入成本几乎全部流向了苹果和谷歌。在TTM，他们的毛利率为74.4%。如果他们为网站销售支付2.5%的手续费，这意味着他们84%的交易价值是通过iOS和Android完成的。如果他们能将这一比例提高到 50-50，这将使他们对 EBT 的所有利润率降低 10 个百分点。如果他们能在网站上获得73%的销售额，他们将有90%的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of money at stake, and a huge incentive for gaming and subscription media companies to figure out how to thread this needle. And that’s all in the absence of further action by the other two branches of government.</p><p><blockquote>这关系到很多钱，对于游戏和订阅媒体公司来说，这是一个巨大的动力来找出如何穿针引线。而这一切都是在政府其他两个部门没有采取进一步行动的情况下发生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Executive Branch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行政部门</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is a good place to discuss the theoretical underpinnings of the new antitrust movement, because two of its leaders now work in the Biden administration. The movement is sometimes referred to as the “neo-Brandeis” movement after Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, because it harkens back to a much earlier era of antitrust enforcement that drastically changed in the 1980s.</p><p><blockquote>这是讨论新反垄断运动理论基础的好地方，因为其两名领导人现在在拜登政府工作。在最高法院大法官路易斯-布兰代斯（Louis Brandeis）之后，这场运动有时被称为 “新布兰代斯 ”运动，因为它让人想起 20 世纪 80 年代发生巨大变化的反垄断执法时代。</blockquote></p><p> In 1978, Robert Bork (yes,that Robert Bork) wrote a very influential book called&nbsp;<i>The Antitrust Paradox</i>. His theory urged a refocusing of enforcement away from competition, and towards consumer benefit as the main test. He argued that antitrust enforcement was propping up smaller, less efficient companies to the detriment of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>1978年，罗伯特·博克（没错，就是那个罗伯特·博克）写了一本很有影响力的书<i>反垄断悖论</i>他的理论敦促将执法重点从竞争转向消费者利益作为主要考验。他认为，反垄断执法正在扶持规模较小、效率较低的公司，从而损害经济。</blockquote></p><p> The 1982 AT&amp;T breakup consent decree became the prototype for the new enforcement. By controlling local and long distance telecommunication, as well as the equipment, AT&amp;T had been underinvesting and overcharging for decades. Their breakup brought an explosion of investment into telecommunications, and brought down prices quickly for landline service and equipment. That became the limit of antitrust enforcement.</p><p><blockquote>1982年美国电话电报公司分手同意法令成为新执法的原型。通过控制本地和长途电信以及设备，AT&amp;T几十年来一直投资不足，收费过高。他们的分手带来了电信投资的爆炸式增长，并迅速降低了固定电话服务和设备的价格。这成为反垄断执法的极限。</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on consumer benefit has affected competition, and that’s what the neo-Brandeis movement hopes to change. They want antitrust enforcement to return to the way it was a century ago, with more of a focus on how large companies affect competition. Lina Khan, a law professor at Columbia, now runs the FTC, the primary antitrust enforcer in the federal government. Her 2017 law review article, “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox” was the spark that lit this fire. Her colleague at Columbia Law, Tim Wu, is also one of the leaders of this movement. He is a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and his fingerprints are all over&nbsp;the July competition executive order.</p><p><blockquote>但是，对消费者利益的关注影响了竞争，而这正是新布兰代斯运动希望改变的。他们希望反垄断执法回到一个世纪前的样子，更多地关注大公司如何影响竞争。哥伦比亚大学法学教授莉娜·汗 (Lina Khan) 现任联邦贸易委员会 (FTC) 负责人，该委员会是联邦政府的主要反垄断执行机构。她 2017 年在《法律评论》上发表的文章《亚马逊的反垄断悖论》是点燃这场大火的火花。她在哥伦比亚律师事务所的同事Tim Wu也是这场运动的领导者之一。他是白宫经济顾问委员会的成员，他的指纹遍布7月份的竞争行政命令。</blockquote></p><p> The order was very wide ranging, with 72 initiatives covering 14 departments and agencies. Most of it does not relate to Apple, but it gives you an idea of the wide breadth of the order. As it relates to Apple:</p><p><blockquote>该命令范围非常广泛，有72项举措，涵盖14个部门和机构。其中大部分与苹果无关，但它让你了解了该秩序的广泛性。就苹果而言：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Right-to-repair is a huge threat to the other pillar of Services, AppleCare, which I estimate at 25%-30% of the segment. But more than that, it would change the way Apple makes devices. Apple squeezes out efficiency gains by attaching pooled memory directly to the main processor die, and by soldering storage into the motherboard. Both of these would likely be prohibited to them, and the devices would suffer.</li>  <li>The FTC is two months into a yearlong frisk of the mobile app ecosystem. Based on previous writings, Lina Khan will likely recommend third party app stores, “sideloading” directly from the web, and an end to the in-app payments monopoly.</li> </ul> Executive branch action is always subject to court challenges, and they can take very long to implement. But Congress can change the law in a single session. And they are already into that process.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维修权对另一个服务支柱 AppleCare 构成了巨大威胁，我估计 AppleCare 占该细分市场的 25%-30%。但更重要的是，它将改变苹果制造设备的方式。苹果通过将共享内存直接连接到主处理器芯片，并将存储器焊接到主板上来挤压效率提升。这两者都可能被禁止，设备也会受到影响。</li><li>联邦贸易委员会对移动应用生态系统进行了为期一年的搜索，已经进行了两个月。根据之前的文章，Lina Khan 可能会推荐第三方应用商店、直接从网络 “侧载 ”以及结束应用内支付垄断。</li></ul>行政部门的行动总是受到法庭质疑，而且可能需要很长时间才能实施。但是国会可以在一次会议上改变法律。他们已经进入了这个过程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Legislative Branch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>立法部门</b></blockquote></p><p> Since there are two houses of Congress, this issue is off on two tracks. The House Judiciary Committee recently passed a suite of bipartisan bills. Of the ones that I think have a good likelihood of passing the full House, here’s how it affects Apple:</p><p><blockquote>由于国会有两院，这个问题有两个轨道。众议院司法委员会最近通过了一系列两党法案。在我认为很有可能在众议院获得通过的法案中，以下是它对苹果的影响：</blockquote></p><p> They would be required to allow third party app stores, sideloading, and third party payments in the Apple App Store.</p><p><blockquote>他们需要允许第三方应用商店、侧载和苹果应用商店中的第三方支付。</blockquote></p><p> Restricting Apple’s ability to acquire smaller companies. In the past 6 years, Apple has bought around 100 companies, which works out to about one every three weeks on average. It looks like they had been accelerating since fiscal 2018, but then abruptly stopped in fiscal 2021. The reason is the new leader of the FTC.</p><p><blockquote>限制苹果收购小公司的能力。在过去的6年里，苹果已经收购了大约100家公司，平均每三周就有一家。看起来他们自 2018 财年以来一直在加速发展，但在 2021 财年突然停止。原因是联邦贸易委员会的新领导人。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2fc9a2578663cc746fdb19ca19dea4c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The big bulge you see there in 2014 is the Beats acquisition at $3 billion, which remains the exception. Otherwise, Apple buys very small companies for tens or hundreds of millions, usually shuts down any products they may have, and absorbs the talent and IP into Apple proper. Apple’s chip design unit, a cornerstone of their current success, began this way in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>你在2014年看到的最大突出是以30亿美元收购Beats，这仍然是一个例外。否则，苹果以几千万、上亿的价格收购非常小的公司，通常关闭他们可能拥有的任何产品，将人才和IP吸收到苹果适当的地方。苹果的芯片设计部门是他们目前成功的基石，它始于 2008 年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No more private APIs.</b>This would mean everything, like the Apple Pay-enabling NFC chip, would be open to competitors.</p><p><blockquote><b>不再有私有API。</b>这意味着一切，比如支持苹果支付的NFC芯片，都将向竞争对手开放。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No more discriminatory rules.</b>Apple doesn’t force real-world product and service providers like Uber(NYSE:UBER)to use in-app payments. Apple would either have to try and get Uber to pay them 30%, or drop the requirement altogether.</p><p><blockquote><b>不再有歧视性的规则。</b>苹果并没有强迫 Uber（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）等现实世界的产品和服务提供商使用应用内支付。苹果要么试图让优步支付他们30%，要么完全放弃这一要求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The end of the Google search deal.</b>Google currently pays Apple a purported $12 billion a year to make Google the default search engine on iOS. This cash goes directly to EBT.</p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索交易的结束。</b>谷歌目前每年向苹果支付120亿美元，让谷歌成为iOS上的默认搜索引擎。这笔现金直接流向EBT。</blockquote></p><p> <b>They would have to expose more user data to developers.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们将不得不向开发人员公开更多的用户数据。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Formalizing the anti-steering decision.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使反转向决策形式化。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Anti-retaliation provision.</b>If these bills were law, Epic would still be on the App Store while they sued Apple.</p><p><blockquote><b>反报复条款。</b>如果这些法案成为法律，当Epic起诉苹果时，他们仍将在App Store上。</blockquote></p><p> After the House is done wrangling over budget reconciliation, I think these bills will hit the House floor this fall or winter, and I think that they have a high likelihood of passing in something like their current form.</p><p><blockquote>在众议院结束对预算协调的争论后，我认为这些法案将在今年秋天或冬天提交众议院，我认为它们很有可能以目前的形式获得通过。</blockquote></p><p> But bills also have to clear the Senate, and they move slower. Things are just getting started there. The big movers in the Senate are Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mike Lee of Utah. Klobuchar has&nbsp;written a long book&nbsp;on the subject, and it is not friendly towards Apple. She has also authored a new bill, Open App Markets Act. It is more narrow than the House suite, but not by much. It would still force Apple to allow third party app stores, sideloading, and third party in-app payments. They would also have to get rid of their private APIs. The bill is narrower than the House suite, and less of a threat to Apple, but still would mean the end of App Store as a driver of growth.<i>The Senate bill is the better outcome for Apple, and it is still terrible.</i></p><p><blockquote>但法案也必须通过参议院，而且进展较慢。事情才刚刚开始。参议院的大人物是明尼苏达州的艾米·克洛布查尔和犹他州的迈克·李。克洛布查尔就此主题写了一本长书，对苹果并不友好。她还起草了一项新法案《开放应用市场法案》。它比房子套房窄，但也窄不了多少。它仍将迫使苹果允许第三方应用商店、侧载和第三方应用内支付。他们还必须摆脱他们的私有API。该法案比众议院的法案范围更窄，对苹果的威胁也更小，但仍意味着应用商店作为增长驱动力的终结。<i>参议院法案对苹果来说是更好的结果，但仍然很可怕。</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that we will see something pass before the next Presidential election, or even in this Congressional session. The best Apple shareholders can hope for is that the final bill gets watered down considerably.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，在下届总统选举之前，甚至在本届国会会议上，我们会看到一些东西通过。苹果股东所能希望的最好结果就是最终法案被大幅淡化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outside The US</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国境外</b></blockquote></p><p> This is in no way limited to the US. We already discussed the Japanese settlement, and South Korea is forcing Apple and Google to allow third party in-app payments. The case that is farthest along in the EU is Spotify’s, which would force Apple to not charge fees to competing services, so that means music, podcasts, games, video and fitness.</p><p><blockquote>这绝不仅限于美国。我们已经讨论过日本的和解，韩国正在迫使苹果和谷歌允许第三方应用内支付。欧盟最受欢迎的案例是 Spotify，这将迫使苹果不向竞争服务收取费用，这意味着音乐、播客、游戏、视频和健身。</blockquote></p><p> The Chinese Communist Party remains the&nbsp;second biggest tail risk in the world&nbsp;after climate change. Apple’s regulatory risk there is uniquely high, both on the supply and demand sides. Apple has already given into them by not providing their Chinese customers with the same level of privacy as everyone else. With the mood in China right now, who knows where that goes.</p><p><blockquote>中国共产党仍然是仅次于气候变化的世界第二大尾部风险。苹果在那里的监管风险在供需双方都是独一无二的高。苹果已经屈服于他们，没有为他们的中国客户提供与其他人相同水平的隐私。以中国现在的情绪，谁知道会走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Losing Control Of App Store Looks Like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>失去对App Store的控制是什么样子</b></blockquote></p><p> Stone Fox Capital here at Seeking Alpha is&nbsp;out with an article&nbsp;pivoting off Katy Huberty's estimation of a 2% earnings loss if the top 20 apps on the App Store were able to eschew in-app payments. Stone Fox would also like you to care about that seemingly small number:</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha 的 Stone Fox Capital 发表了一篇文章，重点介绍了凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 的估计，如果 App Store 上排名前 20 的应用程序能够避免应用内支付，将导致 2% 的收益损失。石狐也希望你关心一下这个看似微不足道的数字：</blockquote></p><p>   Apple won most of their legal case with Epic Games based on the ruling announced on September 10, but the tech giant lost the ultimate battle. The stock remains priced for perfection while the company continues to have growth paths chipped away from the business.  My last article on this subject was called “Chipping Away at App Store.” This is what is happening and the trend is now clear. There is a mood globally to take Apple down a peg, and it is happening too slowly for many people to realize it is happening.</p><p><blockquote>根据9月10日宣布的裁决，苹果赢得了与Epic Games的大部分法律诉讼，但这家科技巨头输掉了最终的战斗。该股的定价仍然非常完美，而该公司的增长路径继续从业务中剥离。我上一篇关于这个主题的文章叫做 “在 App Store 削减成本”。这就是正在发生的事情，趋势现在很清楚。全球范围内都有一种将苹果降级的情绪，但这种情绪发生得太慢，许多人都没有意识到这种情况正在发生。</blockquote></p><p> My own way of modeling the worst case is through my DCF model. It’s modeled as a 25% hit to Services in the first year, with services gross margin reduced from 68% to 65%, followed by a slightly increased growth rate in the segment because of composition effects — the rest of Services grows faster than App Store. I used to model that happening in fiscal 2024, but I have moved that up to fiscal 2023, beginning less than 13 months from now.</p><p><blockquote>我自己模拟最坏情况的方法是通过我的DCF模型。它的模型是，服务在第一年受到 25% 的打击，服务毛利率从 68% 降至 65%，随后由于构成效应，该细分市场的增长率略有上升--其余服务的增长速度都快于 App Store。我曾经模拟 2024 财年会发生这种情况，但我已将其推迟到 2023 财年，距离现在不到 13 个月就开始了。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the effect on fair value on my base case:</p><p><blockquote>以下是对我的基本案例的公允价值的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94b635fe7a2473aafe36bd095a1206b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Even with the very slow start for the reason Stone Fox says — the share price has gotten way out ahead of cash flows — my base case still shows an 11% CAGR in fair value through the end of fiscal 2025. The App Store collapse takes that down to an 8% CAGR, 12% lower by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>即使出于 Stone Fox 所说的原因——股价已经远远领先于现金流——我的基本案例仍然显示，到 2025 财年末，公允价值复合年增长率仍为 11%。App Store 的崩溃使其复合年增长率降至 8%，到 2025 年将下降 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Circling back, Stone Fox puts a button on this more succinctly than I can:</p><p><blockquote>石狐转过身，比我更简洁地按下了一个按钮：</blockquote></p><p>   The key investor takeaway is that Apple has a bright future. The company will continue generating profits with operating cash flows topping $100 billion annually, but the tech giant will struggle to generate the growth needed to warrant the current stock price. The 2% hit to earnings might not seem meaningful, but the amount is very harmful to a stock priced for perfection.  <b>How To Take This Seriously</b></p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是苹果拥有光明的未来。该公司将继续创造利润，每年运营现金流超过 1000 亿美元，但这家科技巨头将难以实现维持当前股价所需的增长。盈利下跌 2% 可能看起来没有意义，但这个数额对于一只定价完美的股票来说非常有害。<b>如何认真对待这一点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my last article on this subject, someone cheekily replied in the comments, “‘Please take this seriously.’ What does that even mean?” That’s a good question. The first part of the answer is to stop pretending it’s not happening.</p><p><blockquote>在我上一篇关于这个话题的文章中，有人在评论中厚颜无耻地回答说：“'请认真对待这件事。这到底是什么意思？”问得好。答案的第一部分是停止假装它没有发生。</blockquote></p><p> “If your time horizon is short, now is a good time to take profits.” I have been using that phrase frequently since Apple hit $140. The last chart just formalizes it with math, but my opinion is that Apple will remain range-bound for some time, between $125 and $155, roughly. I still mean it: if your time horizon is short, now is a good time to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你的时间范围很短，现在是获利了结的好时机”。自从苹果达到140美元以来，我就经常使用这个短语。最后一张图表只是用数学形式化了它，但我的观点是，苹果将在一段时间内保持在区间范围内，大约在125美元到155美元之间。我还是这个意思：如果你的时间范围很短，现在是获利了结的好时机。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But I also believe that no other company is as prepared for the future of technology, regardless of what that brings. That is a&nbsp;far longer discussion. I have been buying Apple shares on the dip since 2005, which is two splits ago. My last buy was in January 2019, when Apple reported that they would miss guidance for the first time in many years. At the time, the commentariat was telling me that Apple’s best days were behind them. I tried to explain that Apple was in a transitional phase, part of a strategy they launched around 2015 to focus more on the growth of the iPhone user base than sales. The strategy would pay off soon, I predicted, and it did in fiscal 2021. That seems like a very long time ago now.</p><p><blockquote>但我也相信，没有其他公司像现在这样为技术的未来做好准备，不管它会带来什么。这是一个更长的讨论。自 2005 年（两次拆分前）以来，我一直在逢低买入苹果股票。我最后一次购买是在 2019 年 1 月，当时苹果报告称他们将多年来首次错过指导。当时，评论员告诉我，苹果最好的日子已经过去了。我试图解释说，苹果正处于过渡阶段，这是他们在2015年左右推出的战略的一部分，旨在更多地关注iPhone用户群的增长，而不是销售。我预测，这一策略很快就会得到回报，2021 财年也确实如此。现在看来那是很久以前的事了。</blockquote></p><p> A consequence of buying the dip from 2005 to 2019 is that I own way too many Apple shares that I could never bring myself to sell. I am massively overweight Apple. There is a “What To Do With The Apple Shares” clause in my will. It is our largest asset, worth more than the house. That has not made me nervous until the last few months, when the tide seemed to start turning on Apple on this issue. I also used to be someone who did not take this threat seriously. I am going to start shaving my position as opportunities present themselves, and one may happen this week with the iPhone launch on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>从 2005 年到 2019 年逢低买入的一个后果是，我持有太多苹果股票，我永远无法出售。我是跑赢大盘·苹果。我的遗嘱中有 “如何处理苹果股份 ”条款。这是我们最大的资产，比房子还值钱。这并没有让我紧张，直到最近几个月，在这个问题上，潮流似乎开始转向苹果。我也曾经是一个不把这种威胁当回事的人。随着机会的出现，我将开始削减我的头寸，随着周二iPhone的发布，一个机会可能会在本周发生。</blockquote></p><p> <i>To be clear, I will remain overweight Apple, just less so, and I remain bullish in the long term. But I no longer feel the safety I once did with this wildly overweight position.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>需要明确的是，我仍将是跑赢大盘·苹果，只是不那么看好，而且从长远来看，我仍然看好。但是我不再感受到我曾经在这个疯狂的跑赢大盘位置上的安全感。</i></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, if you are a long term investor who does not have a massively overweight position, watch, wait and fight confirmation bias every day. If you think this begins and ends with Epic, you haven’t been paying attention.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，如果您是一个没有大量跑赢大盘头寸的长期投资者，请每天观察、等待并对抗确认偏见。如果你认为这一切都始于史诗，也终于史诗，那你就没注意到了。</blockquote></p><p> Please take this seriously.</p><p><blockquote>请认真对待这件事。</blockquote></p><p> I will be back in a few days with hopefully happier news from the iPhone launch on Tuesday. The big question is whether Apple can begin shipping iPhone before the quarter is out.</p><p><blockquote>几天后我会回来，希望能从周二的iPhone发布会上带来更多好消息。最大的问题是苹果能否在季度结束前开始发货 iPhone。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454891-apple-app-store-the-tide-is-turning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454891-apple-app-store-the-tide-is-turning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171919128","content_text":"Summary\n\nA US Federal District Court judge has ruled mostly in Apple’s favor in their case with Epic Games.\nDespite that, and in conjunction with a recent settlement with Japanese regulators, Apple will be getting rid of their anti-steering rule. This is a bigger change than people think.\nThe threat to Apple doesn't end with the Epic trial. There are bigger threats coming from the executive and legislative branches in the US, and regulators in Europe and Asia.\n\nChip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\nIt Does Not End Here\nFor some time now, I have been warning that antitrust law was about to change, and these changes would not be favorable to Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), and that investors need to take these threats seriously. In every one of these attempts, I was rebuffed in the comments by many Apple shareholders telling me that these fears and warnings were overblown. “Long and strong AAPL!” cheerleading seems to be popular.Confirmation bias is a strong thing, and you should fight it every single day.\nMy last attempt was less than two weeks ago, and I was similarly dismissed, and even accused of being a short-selling tout to boot. That last suggestion is pretty funny to anyone who has had to listen to me drone on about Apple stock the last 16 years. The consequence of those 16 years is that I have a lot of Apple stock, so I take things like this very seriously.\nFriday’s decision in Epic v. Apple had one part very bad news for Apple, but mostly a rejection of Epic’s main claim — that iOS is a market unto itself. But the bigger threat continues to be from Congress, where they can change the law in a single session. The House has already passed several bipartisan bills through committee, and three of them seem to have pretty wide support with the rest of the House. A narrower, but just as damaging companion bill is about to start working its way through the Senate. Keep your eyes on Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mike Lee of Utah.\nThen we have regulatory action in the EU, Apple’s second most important region, where antitrust enforcers are siding with Spotify(NYSE:SPOT)in their dispute over in-app payments. Apple has already settled with Japan over their anti-steering rules. South Korea is forcing Apple and Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)to allow third-party in-app payments. China is a black hole of regulatory mystery.\nThe tide is turning on Apple on this issue. If you think this begins and ends with the Epic case, you haven’t been paying attention.\nRight now the threat is confined to App Store, but this is the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. This new antitrust movement may come for other parts of Apple, like the other pillar of their fast-growing Services segment, AppleCare, and even dig deeper into the way Apple likes to do business.\nWhat The Ruling Says\nJudge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers hewed very closely to existing law, because that’s what usually happens in District Court, the lowest level of the federal system. She mostly had bad news for Epic, and targeted bad news for Apple.\nThe case rested on how the court defined the “relevant market” in question. Epic wanted it to be iOS, a market unto itself because of the high walls Apple builds around the ecosystem. Judge Rogers rejected that novel claim pretty handily. But she also rejected Apple’s definition: all gaming transactions, including PCs and consoles. She settled on mobile gaming transactions, so essentially the iOS-Android duopoly of mobile gaming transactions.\nHere is the meat of the decision that follows from that:\n\n Given the trial record, the Court cannot ultimately conclude that Apple is a monopolist under either federal or state antitrust laws. While the Court finds that Apple enjoys considerable market share of over 55% and extraordinarily high profit margins, these factors alone do not show antitrust conduct. Success is not illegal…\n\n\n Nonetheless, the trial did show that Apple is engaging in anticompetitive conduct under California’s competition laws. The Court concludes that Apple’s anti-steering provisions hide critical information from consumers and illegally stifle consumer choice. When coupled with Apple’s incipient antitrust violations, these anti-steering provisions are anticompetitive and a nationwide remedy to eliminate those provisions is warranted.\n\nThe most important thing to note here is that the problem for Apple is California law, not federal law. Federal law changing is where the real threat remains, and we are already well into that process.\nJudge Rogers ruled that Apple has to get rid of their anti-steering rules. App developers will now be allowed to inform users of less expensive options on their website, with a link. We’ll talk about the implications in a moment. Apple charges developers 30% for in-app payments, and the first year of in-app subscriptions (15% thereafter). In-app payments and subscriptions are substantially where all of App Store revenue comes from, about 28% of the Services segment and 5.4% of all revenue in calendar 2020.\nAlso, in the category of rounding errors, Epic has to pay Apple the $3.6 million they owe them when they breached their contract. That’s about 0.001% of Apple’s 2021 top line.\nEpic’s Game\nIf you read my first article about the trial from when the pre-trial filings dropped, you may notice that I was a bit confused about what precisely Epic’s game was here. The foundation of their entire argument — that iOS was a market unto itself — was novel, to say the least. At least one of their lawyers must have informed them of the low likelihood of success on their main claims. Moreover, they burned a lot of pages on arguments not central to their case, but seem more geared towards tarnishing Apple’s reputation.\nMy current understanding is that this case was a publicity stunt. What’s more, it worked. The point was to get this issue into the public conversation. Here I am writing about it, and here you are reading about it. But more importantly, the tide is turning in Washington, and I think the issues raised by this trial have accelerated that.\nThe Anti-Steering Rule\nLike many of the App Store rules, the anti-steering rule was part of a multi-year whack-a-mole process where developers tried to find ways to cut out Apple, and Apple closed those holes. Apple fought very hard to keep this rule, but now seems to be capitulating. They settled with Japanese regulators recently on the anti-steering rules as it applied to media subscription apps, and applied the settlement to the rest of the world as well, maybe in anticipation of this ruling. With the Epic ruling, the anti-steering rule is gone.\nWhen a game developer like Epic sells their virtual currency on the App Store, they have a 30% payment fee. When they make the same transaction on their website, it is probably under 3%. This was always what this was about. Epic wanted to have their own in-app payment system to supersede Apple’s, without the friction of sending people to the website. Judge Rogers rejected that, but gave Epic a partial victory by banning Apple’s anti-steering rules.\nThe anti-steering rules prevented app developers from having text and links to their own much less expensive in-app payments or subscriptions on their websites. This is a real loss for Apple, and puts the whole structure of the two most lucrative payment methods in the App Store at risk.\nLet’s say a gaming company pays a 2.5% processing fee on their website. That means they have 27.5 percentage points of marketing to play with. They could give that entire 27.5% to users in the form of a rebate or freebies. It certainly increases friction to have to leave a game you're having fun with, but if there is a big, friendly, dark-patterned button that says “Want free money?” I think a lot of people would tap that button. What’s more, they get to book the same amount in revenue, and stick the cost down in sales and marketing.\nThat’s just one example of how companies may decide to go with this. That’s a lot of margin to play with. The reason Apple had this rule in the first place is that they feared someone would find the magic formula that would provide more revenue by eschewing in-app payments altogether, and everyone else would copy them. They had fought very hard to keep this rule for a reason.\nJust after the news broke, a friend who knows I own both stocks trolled me with this Bloomberg Terminal screenshot:\n\nRoblox(NYSE:RBLX)is a pure-play mobile gaming company. The vast majority of their revenues come from in-app payments from iOS and Android, the rest from their website sales. Their cost-of-revenues almost all goes to Apple and Google. In the TTM, they had a 74.4% gross margin. If they pay a 2.5% processing fee for website sales, that means 84% of their transaction value was through iOS and Android. If they could get that to 50-50, that would raise all their margins down to EBT by 10 percentage points. If they could get to 73% of sales on the website, they would have a 90% gross margin.\nThere is a lot of money at stake, and a huge incentive for gaming and subscription media companies to figure out how to thread this needle. And that’s all in the absence of further action by the other two branches of government.\nThe Executive Branch\nThis is a good place to discuss the theoretical underpinnings of the new antitrust movement, because two of its leaders now work in the Biden administration. The movement is sometimes referred to as the “neo-Brandeis” movement after Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, because it harkens back to a much earlier era of antitrust enforcement that drastically changed in the 1980s.\nIn 1978, Robert Bork (yes,that Robert Bork) wrote a very influential book called The Antitrust Paradox. His theory urged a refocusing of enforcement away from competition, and towards consumer benefit as the main test. He argued that antitrust enforcement was propping up smaller, less efficient companies to the detriment of the economy.\nThe 1982 AT&T breakup consent decree became the prototype for the new enforcement. By controlling local and long distance telecommunication, as well as the equipment, AT&T had been underinvesting and overcharging for decades. Their breakup brought an explosion of investment into telecommunications, and brought down prices quickly for landline service and equipment. That became the limit of antitrust enforcement.\nBut the focus on consumer benefit has affected competition, and that’s what the neo-Brandeis movement hopes to change. They want antitrust enforcement to return to the way it was a century ago, with more of a focus on how large companies affect competition. Lina Khan, a law professor at Columbia, now runs the FTC, the primary antitrust enforcer in the federal government. Her 2017 law review article, “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox” was the spark that lit this fire. Her colleague at Columbia Law, Tim Wu, is also one of the leaders of this movement. He is a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and his fingerprints are all over the July competition executive order.\nThe order was very wide ranging, with 72 initiatives covering 14 departments and agencies. Most of it does not relate to Apple, but it gives you an idea of the wide breadth of the order. As it relates to Apple:\n\nRight-to-repair is a huge threat to the other pillar of Services, AppleCare, which I estimate at 25%-30% of the segment. But more than that, it would change the way Apple makes devices. Apple squeezes out efficiency gains by attaching pooled memory directly to the main processor die, and by soldering storage into the motherboard. Both of these would likely be prohibited to them, and the devices would suffer.\nThe FTC is two months into a yearlong frisk of the mobile app ecosystem. Based on previous writings, Lina Khan will likely recommend third party app stores, “sideloading” directly from the web, and an end to the in-app payments monopoly.\n\nExecutive branch action is always subject to court challenges, and they can take very long to implement. But Congress can change the law in a single session. And they are already into that process.\nThe Legislative Branch\nSince there are two houses of Congress, this issue is off on two tracks. The House Judiciary Committee recently passed a suite of bipartisan bills. Of the ones that I think have a good likelihood of passing the full House, here’s how it affects Apple:\nThey would be required to allow third party app stores, sideloading, and third party payments in the Apple App Store.\nRestricting Apple’s ability to acquire smaller companies. In the past 6 years, Apple has bought around 100 companies, which works out to about one every three weeks on average. It looks like they had been accelerating since fiscal 2018, but then abruptly stopped in fiscal 2021. The reason is the new leader of the FTC.\nData by YCharts\nThe big bulge you see there in 2014 is the Beats acquisition at $3 billion, which remains the exception. Otherwise, Apple buys very small companies for tens or hundreds of millions, usually shuts down any products they may have, and absorbs the talent and IP into Apple proper. Apple’s chip design unit, a cornerstone of their current success, began this way in 2008.\nNo more private APIs.This would mean everything, like the Apple Pay-enabling NFC chip, would be open to competitors.\nNo more discriminatory rules.Apple doesn’t force real-world product and service providers like Uber(NYSE:UBER)to use in-app payments. Apple would either have to try and get Uber to pay them 30%, or drop the requirement altogether.\nThe end of the Google search deal.Google currently pays Apple a purported $12 billion a year to make Google the default search engine on iOS. This cash goes directly to EBT.\nThey would have to expose more user data to developers.\nFormalizing the anti-steering decision.\nAnti-retaliation provision.If these bills were law, Epic would still be on the App Store while they sued Apple.\nAfter the House is done wrangling over budget reconciliation, I think these bills will hit the House floor this fall or winter, and I think that they have a high likelihood of passing in something like their current form.\nBut bills also have to clear the Senate, and they move slower. Things are just getting started there. The big movers in the Senate are Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mike Lee of Utah. Klobuchar has written a long book on the subject, and it is not friendly towards Apple. She has also authored a new bill, Open App Markets Act. It is more narrow than the House suite, but not by much. It would still force Apple to allow third party app stores, sideloading, and third party in-app payments. They would also have to get rid of their private APIs. The bill is narrower than the House suite, and less of a threat to Apple, but still would mean the end of App Store as a driver of growth.The Senate bill is the better outcome for Apple, and it is still terrible.\nI believe that we will see something pass before the next Presidential election, or even in this Congressional session. The best Apple shareholders can hope for is that the final bill gets watered down considerably.\nOutside The US\nThis is in no way limited to the US. We already discussed the Japanese settlement, and South Korea is forcing Apple and Google to allow third party in-app payments. The case that is farthest along in the EU is Spotify’s, which would force Apple to not charge fees to competing services, so that means music, podcasts, games, video and fitness.\nThe Chinese Communist Party remains the second biggest tail risk in the world after climate change. Apple’s regulatory risk there is uniquely high, both on the supply and demand sides. Apple has already given into them by not providing their Chinese customers with the same level of privacy as everyone else. With the mood in China right now, who knows where that goes.\nWhat Losing Control Of App Store Looks Like\nStone Fox Capital here at Seeking Alpha is out with an article pivoting off Katy Huberty's estimation of a 2% earnings loss if the top 20 apps on the App Store were able to eschew in-app payments. Stone Fox would also like you to care about that seemingly small number:\n\n Apple won most of their legal case with Epic Games based on the ruling announced on September 10, but the tech giant lost the ultimate battle. The stock remains priced for perfection while the company continues to have growth paths chipped away from the business.\n\nMy last article on this subject was called “Chipping Away at App Store.” This is what is happening and the trend is now clear. There is a mood globally to take Apple down a peg, and it is happening too slowly for many people to realize it is happening.\nMy own way of modeling the worst case is through my DCF model. It’s modeled as a 25% hit to Services in the first year, with services gross margin reduced from 68% to 65%, followed by a slightly increased growth rate in the segment because of composition effects — the rest of Services grows faster than App Store. I used to model that happening in fiscal 2024, but I have moved that up to fiscal 2023, beginning less than 13 months from now.\nHere is the effect on fair value on my base case:\n\nEven with the very slow start for the reason Stone Fox says — the share price has gotten way out ahead of cash flows — my base case still shows an 11% CAGR in fair value through the end of fiscal 2025. The App Store collapse takes that down to an 8% CAGR, 12% lower by 2025.\nCircling back, Stone Fox puts a button on this more succinctly than I can:\n\n The key investor takeaway is that Apple has a bright future. The company will continue generating profits with operating cash flows topping $100 billion annually, but the tech giant will struggle to generate the growth needed to warrant the current stock price. The 2% hit to earnings might not seem meaningful, but the amount is very harmful to a stock priced for perfection.\n\nHow To Take This Seriously\nIn my last article on this subject, someone cheekily replied in the comments, “‘Please take this seriously.’ What does that even mean?” That’s a good question. The first part of the answer is to stop pretending it’s not happening.\n“If your time horizon is short, now is a good time to take profits.” I have been using that phrase frequently since Apple hit $140. The last chart just formalizes it with math, but my opinion is that Apple will remain range-bound for some time, between $125 and $155, roughly. I still mean it: if your time horizon is short, now is a good time to take profits.\nBut I also believe that no other company is as prepared for the future of technology, regardless of what that brings. That is a far longer discussion. I have been buying Apple shares on the dip since 2005, which is two splits ago. My last buy was in January 2019, when Apple reported that they would miss guidance for the first time in many years. At the time, the commentariat was telling me that Apple’s best days were behind them. I tried to explain that Apple was in a transitional phase, part of a strategy they launched around 2015 to focus more on the growth of the iPhone user base than sales. The strategy would pay off soon, I predicted, and it did in fiscal 2021. That seems like a very long time ago now.\nA consequence of buying the dip from 2005 to 2019 is that I own way too many Apple shares that I could never bring myself to sell. I am massively overweight Apple. There is a “What To Do With The Apple Shares” clause in my will. It is our largest asset, worth more than the house. That has not made me nervous until the last few months, when the tide seemed to start turning on Apple on this issue. I also used to be someone who did not take this threat seriously. I am going to start shaving my position as opportunities present themselves, and one may happen this week with the iPhone launch on Tuesday.\nTo be clear, I will remain overweight Apple, just less so, and I remain bullish in the long term. But I no longer feel the safety I once did with this wildly overweight position.\nIn contrast, if you are a long term investor who does not have a massively overweight position, watch, wait and fight confirmation bias every day. If you think this begins and ends with Epic, you haven’t been paying attention.\nPlease take this seriously.\nI will be back in a few days with hopefully happier news from the iPhone launch on Tuesday. The big question is whether Apple can begin shipping iPhone before the quarter is out.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888863222,"gmtCreate":1631488299666,"gmtModify":1631888928539,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888863222","repostId":"2166377772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888087240,"gmtCreate":1631413863580,"gmtModify":1631888928544,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888087240","repostId":"1101906502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101906502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631407634,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101906502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101906502","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.Shares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.On Sept. 14, the company will hold a virtual event to introduce the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.However, Apple remains in the news for other reas","content":"<p>Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周五承压，距离 iPhone 发布会仅剩几天时间。以下是如何从这里交易股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple&nbsp;Report&nbsp;fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者消化近期消息并为下周的 iPhone 发布会做准备，苹果报告股价周五下跌 5.10 美元，跌幅 3.31%，收于 148.97 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On Sept. 14, the company will&nbsp;hold a virtual event to introduce&nbsp;the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>9月14日，该公司将举办一场虚拟活动来介绍这款新设备。被称为 “加州流媒体 ”的苹果预计将推出新款 iPhone 和苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果也因为其他原因出现在新闻中。</blockquote></p><p> After hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling&nbsp;in its case with Epic Games.</p><p><blockquote>在本周早些时候创下新高后，在法院对其与 Epic Games 的案件做出裁决的消息传出后，该股周五下跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock&nbsp;is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利著名分析师凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）发表了一份报告，她认为苹果的股票在即将到来的事件之前 “引人注目”。</blockquote></p><p> Like I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.</p><p><blockquote>就像我说的，投资者需要消化大量信息。让我们来看看图表是如何设置的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Apple Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易苹果股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd94f6dcfc32af44a4ae542425f3c92f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年每次公布财报，都会导致抛售。不幸的是，这些抛售恰逢该股处于或接近历史高点。这些事件在图表上用蓝色箭头标记。</blockquote></p><p> It was even more frustrating that Apple&nbsp;blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.</p><p><blockquote>更令人沮丧的是，苹果每次都超出了分析师的预期，但该股还是遭到了抛售。</blockquote></p><p> However, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在最近的报告发布后，该股并没有大幅下跌，而是回落至 145 美元区域，接近之前的高点。它还持有 21 日移动平均线作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该股已突破 150 美元，并在本周早些时候创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> For now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们将回落至关键的 150 美元区域和 21 日移动平均线。在该公司周二活动之前，激进的多头可以买入这一下跌。</blockquote></p><p> If we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们突破周五的低点，投资者可能会考虑停止交易，并在可能跌至 50 日移动平均线或 145 美元区域时买入。</blockquote></p><p> Below $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.</p><p><blockquote>低于 145 美元可能会触及 138 美元水平和 200 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Should Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果交易突破157.26美元的历史高点，161.8%的延期将在160美元附近发挥作用。高于该关口可能会出现 172 美元至 175 美元的区域，具体取决于投资者对该事件的反应。</blockquote></p><p> For what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，9 月份是苹果迄今为止表现最差的月份，在过去 11 年中，9 月份的表现仅为 3 月份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周五承压，距离 iPhone 发布会仅剩几天时间。以下是如何从这里交易股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple&nbsp;Report&nbsp;fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者消化近期消息并为下周的 iPhone 发布会做准备，苹果报告股价周五下跌 5.10 美元，跌幅 3.31%，收于 148.97 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On Sept. 14, the company will&nbsp;hold a virtual event to introduce&nbsp;the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>9月14日，该公司将举办一场虚拟活动来介绍这款新设备。被称为 “加州流媒体 ”的苹果预计将推出新款 iPhone 和苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果也因为其他原因出现在新闻中。</blockquote></p><p> After hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling&nbsp;in its case with Epic Games.</p><p><blockquote>在本周早些时候创下新高后，在法院对其与 Epic Games 的案件做出裁决的消息传出后，该股周五下跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock&nbsp;is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利著名分析师凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）发表了一份报告，她认为苹果的股票在即将到来的事件之前 “引人注目”。</blockquote></p><p> Like I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.</p><p><blockquote>就像我说的，投资者需要消化大量信息。让我们来看看图表是如何设置的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Apple Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易苹果股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd94f6dcfc32af44a4ae542425f3c92f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年每次公布财报，都会导致抛售。不幸的是，这些抛售恰逢该股处于或接近历史高点。这些事件在图表上用蓝色箭头标记。</blockquote></p><p> It was even more frustrating that Apple&nbsp;blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.</p><p><blockquote>更令人沮丧的是，苹果每次都超出了分析师的预期，但该股还是遭到了抛售。</blockquote></p><p> However, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在最近的报告发布后，该股并没有大幅下跌，而是回落至 145 美元区域，接近之前的高点。它还持有 21 日移动平均线作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该股已突破 150 美元，并在本周早些时候创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> For now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们将回落至关键的 150 美元区域和 21 日移动平均线。在该公司周二活动之前，激进的多头可以买入这一下跌。</blockquote></p><p> If we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们突破周五的低点，投资者可能会考虑停止交易，并在可能跌至 50 日移动平均线或 145 美元区域时买入。</blockquote></p><p> Below $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.</p><p><blockquote>低于 145 美元可能会触及 138 美元水平和 200 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Should Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果交易突破157.26美元的历史高点，161.8%的延期将在160美元附近发挥作用。高于该关口可能会出现 172 美元至 175 美元的区域，具体取决于投资者对该事件的反应。</blockquote></p><p> For what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，9 月份是苹果迄今为止表现最差的月份，在过去 11 年中，9 月份的表现仅为 3 月份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101906502","content_text":"Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.\nShares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.\nOn Sept. 14, the company will hold a virtual event to introduce the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.\nHowever, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.\nAfter hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling in its case with Epic Games.\nThat’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.\nLike I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.\nTrading Apple Stock\nDaily chart of Apple stock.\nEach time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.\nIt was even more frustrating that Apple blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.\nHowever, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.\nThe stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.\nFor now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.\nIf we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.\nBelow $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.\nShould Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.\nFor what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881899856,"gmtCreate":1631321584075,"gmtModify":1631888928548,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881899856","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880694514,"gmtCreate":1631053025138,"gmtModify":1631883892861,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"buy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>","listText":"buy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>","text":"buy$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880694514","repostId":"817455241","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":817455241,"gmtCreate":1630982859979,"gmtModify":1734394412956,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【9月7日】美股昨夜休市，港股今日高开，今天买什么？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月7日讯，港股三大指数集体高开，恒指涨0.17%报26207点，国指涨0.16%报9386点，恒生科技指数涨0.52%报6814点。盘面上，国内煤炭期货开盘大涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">$中煤能源(01898)$</a> 高开1.75%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">$中国神华(01088)$</a> 涨0.9%；内房股、铝业股表现强势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02600\">$中国铝业(02600)$</a> 涨超2%；深圳前海合作区大扩容，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00152\">$深圳国际(00152)$</a> 涨近4%，深圳控股涨超3%；大型科技股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 涨1.4%，腾讯涨1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 小幅高开；生物医药下跌明显，电力","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月7日讯，港股三大指数集体高开，恒指涨0.17%报26207点，国指涨0.16%报9386点，恒生科技指数涨0.52%报6814点。盘面上，国内煤炭期货开盘大涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">$中煤能源(01898)$</a> 高开1.75%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">$中国神华(01088)$</a> 涨0.9%；内房股、铝业股表现强势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02600\">$中国铝业(02600)$</a> 涨超2%；深圳前海合作区大扩容，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00152\">$深圳国际(00152)$</a> 涨近4%，深圳控股涨超3%；大型科技股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 涨1.4%，腾讯涨1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 小幅高开；生物医药下跌明显，电力","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月7日讯，港股三大指数集体高开，恒指涨0.17%报26207点，国指涨0.16%报9386点，恒生科技指数涨0.52%报6814点。盘面上，国内煤炭期货开盘大涨，$中煤能源(01898)$ 高开1.75%，$中国神华(01088)$ 涨0.9%；内房股、铝业股表现强势，$中国铝业(02600)$ 涨超2%；深圳前海合作区大扩容，$深圳国际(00152)$ 涨近4%，深圳控股涨超3%；大型科技股普涨，$美团-W(03690)$ 、$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 涨1.4%，腾讯涨1%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$京东集团-SW(09618)$ 小幅高开；生物医药下跌明显，电力","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb78770aab19e4545f8e5f25ed9867a","width":"299","height":"168"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817455241","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":804815808,"gmtCreate":1627949568704,"gmtModify":1631891880889,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804815808","repostId":"1183793139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183793139","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627914562,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183793139?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183793139","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(August 2) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broa","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) after chipmaker ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) reported strong earnings and an upside forecast despite the continuing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）芯片制造商 ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) 公布强劲盈利和上行预测后，费城半导体指数上涨 1.6%，跑赢了更广泛科技板块 (NYSEARCA:XLK) 0.3% 的涨幅，尽管供应链持续受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> ON Semiconductor stock surges over&nbsp;14%&nbsp;after record earnings that beat expectations, upbeat outlook.</p><p><blockquote>盈利创纪录超出预期，前景乐观，半导体股价飙升超过 14%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor Corp.</a> (ON) shot up over&nbsp;14% in morning trading Monday, after the chipmaker reported record adjusted profit and revenue that beat expectations and provided an upbeat outlook, citing accelerating demand in the automotive and industrial end markets.</p><p><blockquote>股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体公司</a>(ON) 在周一早盘交易中飙升超过 14%，此前这家芯片制造商公布了创纪录的调整后利润和收入，超出预期，并提供了乐观的前景，理由是汽车和工业终端市场需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Net income was $184.1 million, or 42 cents a share, after a loss of $1.4 billion, or roughly breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.</li>  <li>Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share increased to a record 63 cents from 12 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 49 cents.</li>  <li>Revenue grew 37.6% to $1.67 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.62 billion.</li>  <li>For the third quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 68 cents to 80 cents and revenue of $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion, above the FactSet consensus for EPS of 51 cents and revenue of $1.61 billion.</li>  <li>Gross margin is expected to improve to 38.8% to 40.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% in the second quarter.</li> </ul> The stock has rallied 19.3% year to date through Friday, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has run up 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has advanced 17.0%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>净利润为 1.841 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分，去年同期亏损 14 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分。</li><li>不包括非经常性项目，调整后每股收益从 12 美分增至创纪录的 63 美分，超过了 FactSet 共识的 49 美分。</li><li>收入增长 37.6%，达到 16.7 亿美元，高于 FactSet 共识的 16.2 亿美元。</li><li>该公司预计第三季度调整后每股收益为 68 美分至 80 美分，收入为 16.6 亿美元至 17.6 亿美元，高于 FactSet 普遍预期的每股收益为 51 美分，收入为 16.1 亿美元。</li><li>毛利率预计将从第二季度的38.3%改善至第三季度的38.8%至40.9%。</li></ul>截至周五，该股今年迄今已上涨 19.3%，而 PHLX 半导体指数上涨 20.1%，标普500上涨 17.0%。</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners notes that ON called out \"accelerating demand for the auto and industrial end markets\" even as the global chip shortage continues.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 指出，尽管全球芯片短缺仍在继续，但 ON 仍呼吁“汽车和工业终端市场的需求加速”。</blockquote></p><p> Top semiconductor gainers include ON's auto chip peers Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +2.6%) with the latter reporting earnings today after the bell. Semiconductor equipment players Applied Materials (AMAT +3.2%) and Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) are also among the top tech gainers.</p><p><blockquote>半导体涨幅最大的公司包括 ON 的汽车芯片同行 Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) 和恩智浦半导体 (NXPI +2.6%)，后者今天盘后公布了财报。半导体设备公司应用材料公司 (AMAT +3.2%) 和 Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) 也是科技涨幅最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) continues to rally after announcing plans for a $1B modified Dutch auction.</p><p><blockquote>Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) 在宣布计划进行 10 亿美元的修改荷兰拍卖后继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29705170f6277ecc6c92943d45c08bb7\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) after chipmaker ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) reported strong earnings and an upside forecast despite the continuing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）芯片制造商 ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) 公布强劲盈利和上行预测后，费城半导体指数上涨 1.6%，跑赢了更广泛科技板块 (NYSEARCA:XLK) 0.3% 的涨幅，尽管供应链持续受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> ON Semiconductor stock surges over&nbsp;14%&nbsp;after record earnings that beat expectations, upbeat outlook.</p><p><blockquote>盈利创纪录超出预期，前景乐观，半导体股价飙升超过 14%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor Corp.</a> (ON) shot up over&nbsp;14% in morning trading Monday, after the chipmaker reported record adjusted profit and revenue that beat expectations and provided an upbeat outlook, citing accelerating demand in the automotive and industrial end markets.</p><p><blockquote>股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体公司</a>(ON) 在周一早盘交易中飙升超过 14%，此前这家芯片制造商公布了创纪录的调整后利润和收入，超出预期，并提供了乐观的前景，理由是汽车和工业终端市场需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Net income was $184.1 million, or 42 cents a share, after a loss of $1.4 billion, or roughly breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.</li>  <li>Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share increased to a record 63 cents from 12 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 49 cents.</li>  <li>Revenue grew 37.6% to $1.67 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.62 billion.</li>  <li>For the third quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 68 cents to 80 cents and revenue of $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion, above the FactSet consensus for EPS of 51 cents and revenue of $1.61 billion.</li>  <li>Gross margin is expected to improve to 38.8% to 40.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% in the second quarter.</li> </ul> The stock has rallied 19.3% year to date through Friday, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has run up 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has advanced 17.0%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>净利润为 1.841 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分，去年同期亏损 14 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分。</li><li>不包括非经常性项目，调整后每股收益从 12 美分增至创纪录的 63 美分，超过了 FactSet 共识的 49 美分。</li><li>收入增长 37.6%，达到 16.7 亿美元，高于 FactSet 共识的 16.2 亿美元。</li><li>该公司预计第三季度调整后每股收益为 68 美分至 80 美分，收入为 16.6 亿美元至 17.6 亿美元，高于 FactSet 普遍预期的每股收益为 51 美分，收入为 16.1 亿美元。</li><li>毛利率预计将从第二季度的38.3%改善至第三季度的38.8%至40.9%。</li></ul>截至周五，该股今年迄今已上涨 19.3%，而 PHLX 半导体指数上涨 20.1%，标普500上涨 17.0%。</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners notes that ON called out \"accelerating demand for the auto and industrial end markets\" even as the global chip shortage continues.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 指出，尽管全球芯片短缺仍在继续，但 ON 仍呼吁“汽车和工业终端市场的需求加速”。</blockquote></p><p> Top semiconductor gainers include ON's auto chip peers Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +2.6%) with the latter reporting earnings today after the bell. Semiconductor equipment players Applied Materials (AMAT +3.2%) and Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) are also among the top tech gainers.</p><p><blockquote>半导体涨幅最大的公司包括 ON 的汽车芯片同行 Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) 和恩智浦半导体 (NXPI +2.6%)，后者今天盘后公布了财报。半导体设备公司应用材料公司 (AMAT +3.2%) 和 Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) 也是科技涨幅最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) continues to rally after announcing plans for a $1B modified Dutch auction.</p><p><blockquote>Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) 在宣布计划进行 10 亿美元的修改荷兰拍卖后继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29705170f6277ecc6c92943d45c08bb7\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183793139","content_text":"(August 2) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) after chipmaker ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) reported strong earnings and an upside forecast despite the continuing supply chain constraints.\nON Semiconductor stock surges over 14% after record earnings that beat expectations, upbeat outlook.\nShares of ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON) shot up over 14% in morning trading Monday, after the chipmaker reported record adjusted profit and revenue that beat expectations and provided an upbeat outlook, citing accelerating demand in the automotive and industrial end markets.\n\nNet income was $184.1 million, or 42 cents a share, after a loss of $1.4 billion, or roughly breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.\nExcluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share increased to a record 63 cents from 12 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 49 cents.\nRevenue grew 37.6% to $1.67 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.62 billion.\nFor the third quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 68 cents to 80 cents and revenue of $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion, above the FactSet consensus for EPS of 51 cents and revenue of $1.61 billion.\nGross margin is expected to improve to 38.8% to 40.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% in the second quarter.\n\nThe stock has rallied 19.3% year to date through Friday, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has run up 20.1% and the S&P 500 has advanced 17.0%.\nMKM Partners notes that ON called out \"accelerating demand for the auto and industrial end markets\" even as the global chip shortage continues.\nTop semiconductor gainers include ON's auto chip peers Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +2.6%) with the latter reporting earnings today after the bell. Semiconductor equipment players Applied Materials (AMAT +3.2%) and Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) are also among the top tech gainers.\nSilicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) continues to rally after announcing plans for a $1B modified Dutch auction.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891810339,"gmtCreate":1628377591321,"gmtModify":1631891880817,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and follow","listText":"Like and follow","text":"Like and follow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891810339","repostId":"1180025090","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888863222,"gmtCreate":1631488299666,"gmtModify":1631888928539,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888863222","repostId":"2166377772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888087240,"gmtCreate":1631413863580,"gmtModify":1631888928544,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888087240","repostId":"1101906502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101906502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631407634,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101906502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101906502","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.Shares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.On Sept. 14, the company will hold a virtual event to introduce the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.However, Apple remains in the news for other reas","content":"<p>Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周五承压，距离 iPhone 发布会仅剩几天时间。以下是如何从这里交易股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple&nbsp;Report&nbsp;fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者消化近期消息并为下周的 iPhone 发布会做准备，苹果报告股价周五下跌 5.10 美元，跌幅 3.31%，收于 148.97 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On Sept. 14, the company will&nbsp;hold a virtual event to introduce&nbsp;the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>9月14日，该公司将举办一场虚拟活动来介绍这款新设备。被称为 “加州流媒体 ”的苹果预计将推出新款 iPhone 和苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果也因为其他原因出现在新闻中。</blockquote></p><p> After hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling&nbsp;in its case with Epic Games.</p><p><blockquote>在本周早些时候创下新高后，在法院对其与 Epic Games 的案件做出裁决的消息传出后，该股周五下跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock&nbsp;is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利著名分析师凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）发表了一份报告，她认为苹果的股票在即将到来的事件之前 “引人注目”。</blockquote></p><p> Like I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.</p><p><blockquote>就像我说的，投资者需要消化大量信息。让我们来看看图表是如何设置的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Apple Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易苹果股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd94f6dcfc32af44a4ae542425f3c92f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年每次公布财报，都会导致抛售。不幸的是，这些抛售恰逢该股处于或接近历史高点。这些事件在图表上用蓝色箭头标记。</blockquote></p><p> It was even more frustrating that Apple&nbsp;blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.</p><p><blockquote>更令人沮丧的是，苹果每次都超出了分析师的预期，但该股还是遭到了抛售。</blockquote></p><p> However, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在最近的报告发布后，该股并没有大幅下跌，而是回落至 145 美元区域，接近之前的高点。它还持有 21 日移动平均线作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该股已突破 150 美元，并在本周早些时候创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> For now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们将回落至关键的 150 美元区域和 21 日移动平均线。在该公司周二活动之前，激进的多头可以买入这一下跌。</blockquote></p><p> If we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们突破周五的低点，投资者可能会考虑停止交易，并在可能跌至 50 日移动平均线或 145 美元区域时买入。</blockquote></p><p> Below $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.</p><p><blockquote>低于 145 美元可能会触及 138 美元水平和 200 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Should Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果交易突破157.26美元的历史高点，161.8%的延期将在160美元附近发挥作用。高于该关口可能会出现 172 美元至 175 美元的区域，具体取决于投资者对该事件的反应。</blockquote></p><p> For what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，9 月份是苹果迄今为止表现最差的月份，在过去 11 年中，9 月份的表现仅为 3 月份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?<blockquote>在 iPhone 发布会前买卖苹果股票？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周五承压，距离 iPhone 发布会仅剩几天时间。以下是如何从这里交易股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple&nbsp;Report&nbsp;fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者消化近期消息并为下周的 iPhone 发布会做准备，苹果报告股价周五下跌 5.10 美元，跌幅 3.31%，收于 148.97 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On Sept. 14, the company will&nbsp;hold a virtual event to introduce&nbsp;the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>9月14日，该公司将举办一场虚拟活动来介绍这款新设备。被称为 “加州流媒体 ”的苹果预计将推出新款 iPhone 和苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果也因为其他原因出现在新闻中。</blockquote></p><p> After hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling&nbsp;in its case with Epic Games.</p><p><blockquote>在本周早些时候创下新高后，在法院对其与 Epic Games 的案件做出裁决的消息传出后，该股周五下跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock&nbsp;is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利著名分析师凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）发表了一份报告，她认为苹果的股票在即将到来的事件之前 “引人注目”。</blockquote></p><p> Like I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.</p><p><blockquote>就像我说的，投资者需要消化大量信息。让我们来看看图表是如何设置的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Apple Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易苹果股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd94f6dcfc32af44a4ae542425f3c92f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年每次公布财报，都会导致抛售。不幸的是，这些抛售恰逢该股处于或接近历史高点。这些事件在图表上用蓝色箭头标记。</blockquote></p><p> It was even more frustrating that Apple&nbsp;blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.</p><p><blockquote>更令人沮丧的是，苹果每次都超出了分析师的预期，但该股还是遭到了抛售。</blockquote></p><p> However, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在最近的报告发布后，该股并没有大幅下跌，而是回落至 145 美元区域，接近之前的高点。它还持有 21 日移动平均线作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该股已突破 150 美元，并在本周早些时候创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> For now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们将回落至关键的 150 美元区域和 21 日移动平均线。在该公司周二活动之前，激进的多头可以买入这一下跌。</blockquote></p><p> If we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们突破周五的低点，投资者可能会考虑停止交易，并在可能跌至 50 日移动平均线或 145 美元区域时买入。</blockquote></p><p> Below $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.</p><p><blockquote>低于 145 美元可能会触及 138 美元水平和 200 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Should Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果交易突破157.26美元的历史高点，161.8%的延期将在160美元附近发挥作用。高于该关口可能会出现 172 美元至 175 美元的区域，具体取决于投资者对该事件的反应。</blockquote></p><p> For what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，9 月份是苹果迄今为止表现最差的月份，在过去 11 年中，9 月份的表现仅为 3 月份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101906502","content_text":"Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.\nShares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.\nOn Sept. 14, the company will hold a virtual event to introduce the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.\nHowever, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.\nAfter hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling in its case with Epic Games.\nThat’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.\nLike I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.\nTrading Apple Stock\nDaily chart of Apple stock.\nEach time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.\nIt was even more frustrating that Apple blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.\nHowever, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.\nThe stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.\nFor now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.\nIf we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.\nBelow $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.\nShould Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.\nFor what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899398088,"gmtCreate":1628157428944,"gmtModify":1631891880853,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899398088","repostId":"1119138550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119138550","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628157065,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119138550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 17:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel has a plan to go beyond 3nm chips<blockquote>英特尔计划超越 3nm 芯片</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119138550","media":"engadget","summary":"Its moving past nanometers, in more than one way.\n\nEarlier this year, Intel announced they were plan","content":"<p>  Its moving past nanometers, in more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> way.  Earlier this year, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> announced they were planning toretake the CPU manufacturing leadand \"unquestioned leadership\" in the PC world. These were impressive goals, but what was missing was any sense of how they'd actually achieve them. Now, we finally know Intel's plan.</p><p><blockquote>它超越纳米，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>方式。今年早些时候，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>宣布他们计划夺取CPU制造的领先地位，并在个人电脑领域取得“无可争议的领导地位”。这些都是令人印象深刻的目标，但缺少的是他们如何实际实现这些目标的任何感觉。现在，我们终于知道了英特尔的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger and SVP of Technology Development Dr. Ann Kelleher,laid out the company's plan for the future.For starters, Intel is renaming its manufacturing nodes. What used to be 10nm \"Enhanced Superfin\" is now just \"7.\" This may feel a little duplicitous — \"just wave a wand a you've got better technology!\" — but to be fair to intel, the nanometer measurements of process nodes don't really correspond to anything physical any more, and in terms of density Intel's current 10nm chips are competitive with TSMC and Samsung's 7nm.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格和技术开发高级副总裁安·凯莱赫博士阐述了公司的未来计划。首先，英特尔正在重新命名其制造节点。曾经的 10 纳米“增强型超鳍”现在只有“7”。这可能感觉有点口是心非——“只要挥动魔杖，你就有更好的技术!”——但公平地说，制程节点的纳米测量已经不再与任何物理测量相对应，就密度而言，英特尔目前的 10 纳米芯片与台积电和三星的 7 纳米芯片具有竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Looking beyond 7nm, Intel is targeting an aggressive release schedule with major product updates happening annually. We're expecting their Alder Lake chips this fall, which will mix high and low-powered cores, followed by now-4nm Meteor Lake chips that will move to a \"tile\" (chiplet) design, and incorporate Intel's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDD\">3D</a> stacked-chip technology, Foveros.</p><p><blockquote>除了 7nm 之外，英特尔的目标是积极的发布计划，每年都会进行重大产品更新。我们预计他们将在今年秋天推出 Alder Lake 芯片，该芯片将混合高功率和低功耗内核，随后是现在的 4nm Meteor Lake 芯片，该芯片将采用“瓷砖”（chiplet）设计，并采用英特尔的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDD\">三维</a>堆叠芯片技术，Foveros。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, Intel has technology mapped out for an EUV-based 3nm node that will use the high-energy manufacturing process to streamline chip creation, and a \"20A\" for angstrom node. This is one ten-billionth of a meter (meaning it's 2nm), and will be followed by a 18A node that Intel hopes to start moving into production in 2025 for products sometime in the 2nd half of the decade. Again, while node measurements don't really correspond to physical structures any more, a silicon atom is in the area of 2 angstroms wide, so these are seriously tiny transistors.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，英特尔还为基于 EUV 的 3nm 节点规划了技术，该节点将使用高能制造工艺来简化芯片制造，并为埃节点规划了“20A”技术。这是一米的百亿分之一（意味着它是 2 纳米），随后将是 18A 节点，英特尔希望在 2025 年开始生产，用于本世纪下半叶的产品。同样，虽然节点测量不再真正对应于物理结构，但硅原子的宽度为2埃，因此这些晶体管非常小。</blockquote></p><p> This release schedule seems aggressive, and Intel does not have the best track record of meeting targets for new nodes, but if it can even come close to these goals, expect your laptops and desktops to get a huge performance boost in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>这个发布时间表似乎很激进，英特尔也没有实现新节点目标的最佳记录，但如果它甚至能接近这些目标，预计您的笔记本电脑和台式机将在未来几年获得巨大的性能提升。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1628157128723","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel has a plan to go beyond 3nm chips<blockquote>英特尔计划超越 3nm 芯片</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel has a plan to go beyond 3nm chips<blockquote>英特尔计划超越 3nm 芯片</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">engadget</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 17:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Its moving past nanometers, in more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> way.  Earlier this year, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> announced they were planning toretake the CPU manufacturing leadand \"unquestioned leadership\" in the PC world. These were impressive goals, but what was missing was any sense of how they'd actually achieve them. Now, we finally know Intel's plan.</p><p><blockquote>它超越纳米，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>方式。今年早些时候，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>宣布他们计划夺取CPU制造的领先地位，并在个人电脑领域取得“无可争议的领导地位”。这些都是令人印象深刻的目标，但缺少的是他们如何实际实现这些目标的任何感觉。现在，我们终于知道了英特尔的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger and SVP of Technology Development Dr. Ann Kelleher,laid out the company's plan for the future.For starters, Intel is renaming its manufacturing nodes. What used to be 10nm \"Enhanced Superfin\" is now just \"7.\" This may feel a little duplicitous — \"just wave a wand a you've got better technology!\" — but to be fair to intel, the nanometer measurements of process nodes don't really correspond to anything physical any more, and in terms of density Intel's current 10nm chips are competitive with TSMC and Samsung's 7nm.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格和技术开发高级副总裁安·凯莱赫博士阐述了公司的未来计划。首先，英特尔正在重新命名其制造节点。曾经的 10 纳米“增强型超鳍”现在只有“7”。这可能感觉有点口是心非——“只要挥动魔杖，你就有更好的技术!”——但公平地说，制程节点的纳米测量已经不再与任何物理测量相对应，就密度而言，英特尔目前的 10 纳米芯片与台积电和三星的 7 纳米芯片具有竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Looking beyond 7nm, Intel is targeting an aggressive release schedule with major product updates happening annually. We're expecting their Alder Lake chips this fall, which will mix high and low-powered cores, followed by now-4nm Meteor Lake chips that will move to a \"tile\" (chiplet) design, and incorporate Intel's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDD\">3D</a> stacked-chip technology, Foveros.</p><p><blockquote>除了 7nm 之外，英特尔的目标是积极的发布计划，每年都会进行重大产品更新。我们预计他们将在今年秋天推出 Alder Lake 芯片，该芯片将混合高功率和低功耗内核，随后是现在的 4nm Meteor Lake 芯片，该芯片将采用“瓷砖”（chiplet）设计，并采用英特尔的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDD\">三维</a>堆叠芯片技术，Foveros。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, Intel has technology mapped out for an EUV-based 3nm node that will use the high-energy manufacturing process to streamline chip creation, and a \"20A\" for angstrom node. This is one ten-billionth of a meter (meaning it's 2nm), and will be followed by a 18A node that Intel hopes to start moving into production in 2025 for products sometime in the 2nd half of the decade. Again, while node measurements don't really correspond to physical structures any more, a silicon atom is in the area of 2 angstroms wide, so these are seriously tiny transistors.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，英特尔还为基于 EUV 的 3nm 节点规划了技术，该节点将使用高能制造工艺来简化芯片制造，并为埃节点规划了“20A”技术。这是一米的百亿分之一（意味着它是 2 纳米），随后将是 18A 节点，英特尔希望在 2025 年开始生产，用于本世纪下半叶的产品。同样，虽然节点测量不再真正对应于物理结构，但硅原子的宽度为2埃，因此这些晶体管非常小。</blockquote></p><p> This release schedule seems aggressive, and Intel does not have the best track record of meeting targets for new nodes, but if it can even come close to these goals, expect your laptops and desktops to get a huge performance boost in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>这个发布时间表似乎很激进，英特尔也没有实现新节点目标的最佳记录，但如果它甚至能接近这些目标，预计您的笔记本电脑和台式机将在未来几年获得巨大的性能提升。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.engadget.com/intel-laid-out-an-aggressive-plan-to-build-angstrom-scale-transistors-within-the-next-five-years-180020485.html\">engadget</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","INTC":"英特尔","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"source_url":"https://www.engadget.com/intel-laid-out-an-aggressive-plan-to-build-angstrom-scale-transistors-within-the-next-five-years-180020485.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119138550","content_text":"Its moving past nanometers, in more than one way.\n\nEarlier this year, Intel announced they were planning toretake the CPU manufacturing leadand \"unquestioned leadership\" in the PC world. These were impressive goals, but what was missing was any sense of how they'd actually achieve them. Now, we finally know Intel's plan.\nIntel's CEO Pat Gelsinger and SVP of Technology Development Dr. Ann Kelleher,laid out the company's plan for the future.For starters, Intel is renaming its manufacturing nodes. What used to be 10nm \"Enhanced Superfin\" is now just \"7.\" This may feel a little duplicitous — \"just wave a wand a you've got better technology!\" — but to be fair to intel, the nanometer measurements of process nodes don't really correspond to anything physical any more, and in terms of density Intel's current 10nm chips are competitive with TSMC and Samsung's 7nm.\nLooking beyond 7nm, Intel is targeting an aggressive release schedule with major product updates happening annually. We're expecting their Alder Lake chips this fall, which will mix high and low-powered cores, followed by now-4nm Meteor Lake chips that will move to a \"tile\" (chiplet) design, and incorporate Intel's 3D stacked-chip technology, Foveros.\nBeyond that, Intel has technology mapped out for an EUV-based 3nm node that will use the high-energy manufacturing process to streamline chip creation, and a \"20A\" for angstrom node. This is one ten-billionth of a meter (meaning it's 2nm), and will be followed by a 18A node that Intel hopes to start moving into production in 2025 for products sometime in the 2nd half of the decade. Again, while node measurements don't really correspond to physical structures any more, a silicon atom is in the area of 2 angstroms wide, so these are seriously tiny transistors.\nThis release schedule seems aggressive, and Intel does not have the best track record of meeting targets for new nodes, but if it can even come close to these goals, expect your laptops and desktops to get a huge performance boost in the next few years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03086":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"09086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890754380,"gmtCreate":1628137045540,"gmtModify":1631891880864,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890754380","repostId":"1158747638","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":873988440,"gmtCreate":1636843830814,"gmtModify":1636843830928,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873988440","repostId":"1102251183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102251183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636772424,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102251183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102251183","media":"Barrons","summary":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Mo","content":"<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一清晨，通过电话联系到辉瑞公司的首席科学官米凯尔-多尔斯滕（Mikael Dolsten）时，他听起来头晕目眩。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其 Covid-19 抗病毒药物已将高危成年人的住院风险降低了 89%，这一消息震惊了市场。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”这不可能是一件偶然的事情，你能够打破这种世界纪录，同时获得大满贯。他在试图说明辉瑞公司双赢的重要性时，用了体育比喻： 仅用了 10 个月就研制出了一种非常有效的 Covid-19 疫苗，一年后又研制出了一种同样令人惊叹的 Covid-19 抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 要求投资者在多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务上下大注。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla 已经摆脱了辉瑞公司的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者保健产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司将依靠多尔斯滕的科学力量生死存亡。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在 2019 年 11 月的封面故事中，<i>巴伦</i>认为Bourla和Dolsten能成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞公司的观点：<i>巴伦</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从疫情中获利会带来新的风险。低收入国家在全球70多亿剂疫苗中所占比例不到1%。如果辉瑞公司抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞公司股价飙升 10.9%，创下至少 20 年来最佳单日表现。尽管如此，随着该股目前在 50 美元左右易手，投资者继续低估该公司的估值。投资者对辉瑞公司的定价是明年预期收益的 12 倍，低于强生公司（JNJ）和礼来公司（LLY）等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临的专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去少数几种每年带来数十亿美元收入的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这种担忧是合理的，但辉瑞公司的科学政变应该让投资者相信，该公司的科学能够安全地渡过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能迎头赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞公司科学实力的最好例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司的 Covid-19 疫苗来自德国生物技术公司 BioNTech (BNTX) 的实验室，而新型 Covid-19 抗病毒药物则是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞公司位于美国东北部的实验室科学家 “梦之队 ”研发出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将精力分散在与 BioNTech 在疫苗方面的合作和对 Covid-19 药丸的追求上。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的 “巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目是一个规模小得多的项目——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源开展工作。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，资源相当适中。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括辉瑞公司的药物设计主管夏洛特-阿勒顿（Charlotte Allerton）。科学家们从辉瑞公司几年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“辉瑞的药物研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂是静脉注射给药的，口服给药时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应。科学家们创造了 600 种化合物来确定合适的药物，这一过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“他说：”四年在这里变成了四个月。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药丸。目前，该公司正在对该药物进行多项 2/3 期试验，包括一项针对高危患者的试验、一项针对非高危患者的试验以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防措施。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司 (MRK) 的 Covid 治疗药丸更有效。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“Cantor Fitzgerald 的分析师 Louise Chen 说：”这无疑有助于证明（辉瑞的）药品研发比人们想象的要好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈说，在 Covid-19 疫苗和药丸销售的耐久性得到更明确以及其余的管道得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我认为没有一个事件会引发该股的评级被重新评级到下一个级别。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得押注辉瑞成为一项长期战略。与此同时，Moderna (MRNA) 最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不均而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对 Moderna 公司越来越不满，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司 “加大力度”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 股价在过去三个月中下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞公司可能会侵蚀大约一年前推出 Covid-19 疫苗时获得的巨大商誉。本月早些时候，辉瑞公司首席执行官布尔拉将疫苗分配不公归咎于低收入国家，并表示<i>巴伦</i>不下单是他们的错。辉瑞公司以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，用于捐赠给贫困国家，并表示到明年年底将总共至少向中低收入国家交付20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到抗病毒药物时，辉瑞只表示将为较贫穷的国家提供分层定价，这与它对疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫困国家提供自己的 Covid-19 药丸的计划形成了鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，该协议将允许其药丸在全球获得许可，而默克公司无需支付版税。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说，辉瑞公司正在考虑按照与默克公司类似的机制对其药片进行许可。“他说：”我们将研究这些方案。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保无论谁参与其中，都能获得建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措来得还不够快。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家门外举行抗议活动，呼吁辉瑞公司分享其疫苗生产技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞保持相对良好的华盛顿青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学继续推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示出其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是个好兆头。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一清晨，通过电话联系到辉瑞公司的首席科学官米凯尔-多尔斯滕（Mikael Dolsten）时，他听起来头晕目眩。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其 Covid-19 抗病毒药物已将高危成年人的住院风险降低了 89%，这一消息震惊了市场。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”这不可能是一件偶然的事情，你能够打破这种世界纪录，同时获得大满贯。他在试图说明辉瑞公司双赢的重要性时，用了体育比喻： 仅用了 10 个月就研制出了一种非常有效的 Covid-19 疫苗，一年后又研制出了一种同样令人惊叹的 Covid-19 抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉 (Albert Bourla) 要求投资者在多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务上下大注。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla 已经摆脱了辉瑞公司的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者保健产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司将依靠多尔斯滕的科学力量生死存亡。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在 2019 年 11 月的封面故事中，<i>巴伦</i>认为Bourla和Dolsten能成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞公司的观点：<i>巴伦</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从疫情中获利会带来新的风险。低收入国家在全球70多亿剂疫苗中所占比例不到1%。如果辉瑞公司抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞公司股价飙升 10.9%，创下至少 20 年来最佳单日表现。尽管如此，随着该股目前在 50 美元左右易手，投资者继续低估该公司的估值。投资者对辉瑞公司的定价是明年预期收益的 12 倍，低于强生公司（JNJ）和礼来公司（LLY）等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临的专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去少数几种每年带来数十亿美元收入的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这种担忧是合理的，但辉瑞公司的科学政变应该让投资者相信，该公司的科学能够安全地渡过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能迎头赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞公司科学实力的最好例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司的 Covid-19 疫苗来自德国生物技术公司 BioNTech (BNTX) 的实验室，而新型 Covid-19 抗病毒药物则是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞公司位于美国东北部的实验室科学家 “梦之队 ”研发出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将精力分散在与 BioNTech 在疫苗方面的合作和对 Covid-19 药丸的追求上。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的 “巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目是一个规模小得多的项目——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源开展工作。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，资源相当适中。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括辉瑞公司的药物设计主管夏洛特-阿勒顿（Charlotte Allerton）。科学家们从辉瑞公司几年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“辉瑞的药物研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂是静脉注射给药的，口服给药时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“多尔斯滕说：”他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应。科学家们创造了 600 种化合物来确定合适的药物，这一过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“他说：”四年在这里变成了四个月。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药丸。目前，该公司正在对该药物进行多项 2/3 期试验，包括一项针对高危患者的试验、一项针对非高危患者的试验以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防措施。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司 (MRK) 的 Covid 治疗药丸更有效。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>“Cantor Fitzgerald 的分析师 Louise Chen 说：”这无疑有助于证明（辉瑞的）药品研发比人们想象的要好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈说，在 Covid-19 疫苗和药丸销售的耐久性得到更明确以及其余的管道得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我认为没有一个事件会引发该股的评级被重新评级到下一个级别。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得押注辉瑞成为一项长期战略。与此同时，Moderna (MRNA) 最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不均而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对 Moderna 公司越来越不满，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司 “加大力度”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 股价在过去三个月中下跌了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞公司可能会侵蚀大约一年前推出 Covid-19 疫苗时获得的巨大商誉。本月早些时候，辉瑞公司首席执行官布尔拉将疫苗分配不公归咎于低收入国家，并表示<i>巴伦</i>不下单是他们的错。辉瑞公司以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，用于捐赠给贫困国家，并表示到明年年底将总共至少向中低收入国家交付20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到抗病毒药物时，辉瑞只表示将为较贫穷的国家提供分层定价，这与它对疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫困国家提供自己的 Covid-19 药丸的计划形成了鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，该协议将允许其药丸在全球获得许可，而默克公司无需支付版税。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说，辉瑞公司正在考虑按照与默克公司类似的机制对其药片进行许可。“他说：”我们将研究这些方案。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保无论谁参与其中，都能获得建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措来得还不够快。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家门外举行抗议活动，呼吁辉瑞公司分享其疫苗生产技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞保持相对良好的华盛顿青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学继续推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102251183","content_text":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.\n“It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.\nTwo years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.\nBourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.\nIn a cover story in November 2019, Barron’s argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.\nThe new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that Barron’s made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.\nPfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY).\nThe Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.\nThe worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.\nThe success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.\nWhile Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech BioNTech (BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.\nIn the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.\nThe antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.\n“The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.\nDolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.\n“[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought.”\nThe protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.\n“They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.\nPfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from Merck (MRK).\n“It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.\nChen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.\n“There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”\nThat makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of Moderna (MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.\nBiden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”\nModerna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.\nAs the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling Barron’s that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.\nWhen it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.\nThat contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.\nDolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”\nSuch a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.\nAn aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873981731,"gmtCreate":1636843702976,"gmtModify":1636843703092,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873981731","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许 AAPL 不是那种值得一买的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只在未来几年内值得今天持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约 6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头已开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，卖出（或做空）这只股票的理由并没有太大的说服力，我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌案例要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 和 Satori Fund 的 Dan Niles 等专家是少数几个浮现在脑海中的专家，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌 AAPL 的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常有不同的表述方式，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在 2020 年转化为收入。疫情和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13推出后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为这只是对之前型号的一个小升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和假期后的季度开始面临难以逾越的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表也显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度里，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。从2019-2020财年到2021财年销售转变的一个可能理由是苹果较晚进入5G领域。忠实于或只是偏爱iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一次性完成所有操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这或许也有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去 6 到 12 个月中飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一台能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自 2015 年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020 财年第四季度同比下降高达 29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，收入每个时期至少增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在过去的12个季度——大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命——苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能会增加，这个数字很难代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为苹果产品的需求接下来会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，尤其是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的另一个经常被提及的主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 表示，明年 26 倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与适度的增长预期相比，这个倍数看起来太高了。分析师预计，到 2025 财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长 4%。Alphabet (GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期每年盈利将增长 16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（长期每股收益增长的市盈率）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊 (AMZN) 在该指标上遥遥领先，为 2.3 倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个有利于苹果的好论点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的守门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象是，苹果今年夏天的iOS隐私政策变化一直在伤害社交媒体公司，他们的财务报表导致纳斯达克市值在几分钟内飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们是否应该期望为股票支付溢价？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，与几年前相比，苹果的未来一年市盈率肯定有所扩大。但多年来的走高似乎与以下因素一致：（1）对苹果产品和服务的需求增加，（2）更好的利润率，（3）2020年利率下降，以及（4）广泛的股票市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前 AAPL 的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了约三次，并回到了 2021 年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的下一个经常被提及的风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与 11 月至 1 月期间季节性表现较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能认为，由于未来几个季度的艰难竞争，投资者可能很难在未来几个月找到购买 AAPL 的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但是在这里，我相信一点耐心是必要的。首先，仅近期股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太多上涨空间是否已被纳入分析师的财务模型，因此，该股的定价也得到了适当的体现。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队管理的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（这与上述风险 1 相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不会像我在 2021 年 2 月或更好的是，在 2018 年 4 月所认为的那样是千载难逢的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票无缘无故地抛售。但我仍然认为 AAPL 是未来几年值得持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始向一年前的水平重新评估。如果苹果在短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许 AAPL 不是那种值得一买的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只在未来几年内值得今天持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约 6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头已开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，卖出（或做空）这只股票的理由并没有太大的说服力，我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌案例要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 和 Satori Fund 的 Dan Niles 等专家是少数几个浮现在脑海中的专家，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌 AAPL 的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常有不同的表述方式，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在 2020 年转化为收入。疫情和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13推出后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为这只是对之前型号的一个小升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和假期后的季度开始面临难以逾越的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表也显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度里，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。从2019-2020财年到2021财年销售转变的一个可能理由是苹果较晚进入5G领域。忠实于或只是偏爱iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一次性完成所有操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这或许也有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去 6 到 12 个月中飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一台能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自 2015 年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020 财年第四季度同比下降高达 29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，收入每个时期至少增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在过去的12个季度——大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命——苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能会增加，这个数字很难代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为苹果产品的需求接下来会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，尤其是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的另一个经常被提及的主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 表示，明年 26 倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与适度的增长预期相比，这个倍数看起来太高了。分析师预计，到 2025 财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长 4%。Alphabet (GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期每年盈利将增长 16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（长期每股收益增长的市盈率）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊 (AMZN) 在该指标上遥遥领先，为 2.3 倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个有利于苹果的好论点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的守门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象是，苹果今年夏天的iOS隐私政策变化一直在伤害社交媒体公司，他们的财务报表导致纳斯达克市值在几分钟内飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们是否应该期望为股票支付溢价？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，与几年前相比，苹果的未来一年市盈率肯定有所扩大。但多年来的走高似乎与以下因素一致：（1）对苹果产品和服务的需求增加，（2）更好的利润率，（3）2020年利率下降，以及（4）广泛的股票市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前 AAPL 的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了约三次，并回到了 2021 年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的下一个经常被提及的风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与 11 月至 1 月期间季节性表现较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能认为，由于未来几个季度的艰难竞争，投资者可能很难在未来几个月找到购买 AAPL 的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但是在这里，我相信一点耐心是必要的。首先，仅近期股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太多上涨空间是否已被纳入分析师的财务模型，因此，该股的定价也得到了适当的体现。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队管理的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（这与上述风险 1 相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不会像我在 2021 年 2 月或更好的是，在 2018 年 4 月所认为的那样是千载难逢的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票无缘无故地抛售。但我仍然认为 AAPL 是未来几年值得持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始向一年前的水平重新评估。如果苹果在短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866654165,"gmtCreate":1632780229357,"gmtModify":1632797972996,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866654165","repostId":"2170623235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898982112,"gmtCreate":1628468545636,"gmtModify":1631891880806,"author":{"id":"3586332417338594","authorId":"3586332417338594","name":"YangXH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da16ba61657b694381bbd12971282c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586332417338594","authorIdStr":"3586332417338594"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898982112","repostId":"1101851851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101851851","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628467943,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101851851?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-09 08:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden’s Electric-Car Ambitions Face Real-World Roadblocks<blockquote>拜登的电动汽车雄心面临现实世界的障碍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101851851","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Auto makers want congressional moves on charging stations and tax incentives; consumer support also ","content":"<p><i>Auto makers want congressional moves on charging stations and tax incentives; consumer support also is needed.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>汽车制造商希望国会在充电站和税收优惠方面采取行动；还需要消费者支持。</i></blockquote></p><p> WASHINGTON—President Biden wants to convert American motorists to electric cars as a linchpin of his plan to address&nbsp;climate change. Success heavily depends on factors outside his control.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿——拜登总统希望将美国驾车者改用电动汽车，作为他应对气候变化计划的关键。成功在很大程度上取决于他无法控制的因素。</blockquote></p><p> The executive order&nbsp;that Mr. Biden signed Thursday—calling on sales of electric, fuel-cell and plug-in hybrids to account for 50% of car and light truck sales by 2030—has no binding authority.</p><p><blockquote>拜登周四签署的行政命令——呼吁到 2030 年电动、燃料电池和插电式混合动力汽车的销量占汽车和轻型卡车销量的 50%——没有约束力。</blockquote></p><p> Auto makers say they could meet a target of somewhere&nbsp;between 40% and 50% of sales, but only if Congress spends billions of dollars to build out a network of EV charging stations and provides tax incentives to consumers, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商表示，他们可以实现销售额 40% 至 50% 的目标，但前提是国会花费数十亿美元建设电动汽车充电站网络，并为消费者提供税收优惠等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that,&nbsp;consumers must buy in. EVs currently account for about 3% of sales, reflecting in part generally higher upfront costs and limits on their range.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，消费者必须买账。电动汽车目前约占销量的 3%，部分反映了普遍较高的前期成本和续航里程限制。</blockquote></p><p> “Possibly the biggest hurdle ahead is consumer acceptance,” said Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at auto-data firm Edmunds. “What will it take for Americans to be willing to change their car ownership habits to go electric?”</p><p><blockquote>“汽车数据公司 Edmunds 的分析师杰西卡-考德威尔（Jessica Caldwell）说：”未来最大的障碍可能是消费者的接受度。“美国人怎样才能愿意改变他们的汽车拥有习惯，转而使用电动汽车？”</blockquote></p><p> Supporters of Mr. Biden’s plan acknowledge the magnitude of the task ahead but insist the goal is achievable.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生计划的支持者承认未来任务的艰巨性，但坚称目标是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> Tax incentives can help bridge the price difference between gasoline and electric vehicles at the dealership, these people say. Once purchased, electric vehicles&nbsp;offer continued savings&nbsp;in fuel and maintenance costs compared with gas vehicles, and often a better ride.</p><p><blockquote>这些人说，税收优惠可以帮助弥合经销商处汽油车和电动汽车之间的价格差异。一旦购买，与燃气汽车相比，电动汽车可以持续节省燃料和维护成本，并且通常提供更好的乘坐体验。</blockquote></p><p> A bigger national&nbsp;network of charging stations&nbsp;is also seen as key to alleviating fears of range anxiety, or running out of charge on the highway.</p><p><blockquote>更大的全国充电站网络也被视为缓解对里程焦虑或在高速公路上没电的担忧的关键。</blockquote></p><p> Providing those solutions will require&nbsp;balancing a long list of interests, from industry, political parties, unions, environmentalists, regulators and local governments, among others.</p><p><blockquote>提供这些解决方案需要平衡一长串利益，包括行业、政党、工会、环保主义者、监管机构和地方政府等。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s a Rubik’s cube of complexity,” said Larry Burns, a former GM executive and adviser to&nbsp;Alphabet&nbsp;Inc.’s&nbsp;self-driving affiliate Waymo. “And this scale is massive. So we have to have collective will to make this happen.”</p><p><blockquote>“通用汽车前高管、Alphabet自动驾驶子公司 Waymo 顾问 Larry Burns 说：”这是一个复杂的魔方。“这个规模是巨大的。因此，我们必须有集体意愿来实现这一目标”。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Burns and others say the industry is ready to make the transition, spurred by government and international competition.</p><p><blockquote>但伯恩斯和其他人表示，在政府和国际竞争的推动下，该行业已经准备好进行转型。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden has made transportation a central part of his&nbsp;agenda on climate change. The sector is the country’s top source of greenhouse-gas emissions, contributing more than a quarter of the country’s planet-warming gases. And China has become a world leader in batteries and electric vehicles, a long-term threat to U.S. manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生将交通作为他气候变化议程的核心部分。该行业是该国温室气体排放的最大来源，占该国全球变暖气体排放量的四分之一以上。中国已成为电池和电动汽车领域的世界领导者，这对美国制造业构成了长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden’s most immediate impact will be through using the authority he does have at the Environmental Protection Agency. It is proposing new rules that would require auto makers to raise average fleetwide fuel efficiency to the equivalent of 52 miles per gallon by the 2026 model year, using an industry measure that takes both fuel efficiency and emissions reductions into account.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生最直接的影响将是利用他在环境保护局的权力。它正在提出新规则，要求汽车制造商在 2026 车型年之前将整个车队的平均燃油效率提高到相当于每加仑 52 英里，采用一项同时考虑燃油效率和减排的行业措施。</blockquote></p><p> That compares with the current requirement of 43.3 mpg for that model year under rules set last year by the Trump administration.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据特朗普执政去年制定的规则，该车型年目前的要求为 43.3 英里/加仑。</blockquote></p><p> Under the agency’s proposal, which is now subject to a public-comment period, auto makers would be allowed some increased flexibility to comply by using credits they banked in past years when they surpassed their sales goals under the fuel-efficiency requirements.</p><p><blockquote>根据该机构的提案（目前正在接受公众意见征询期），汽车制造商将被允许使用过去几年在燃油效率要求下超额完成销售目标时获得的信贷，从而获得更大的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> <i>‘There is going to be a massive dislocation...[President Biden] has to navigate through it and enforce the compromise.’</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这将是一个巨大的混乱......[拜登总统]必须克服困难，执行妥协。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p style=\"text-align:right;\"><i>— Bob Lutz, former auto executive</i></p><p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align:right;\"><i>— 鲍勃·卢茨 (Bob Lutz)，前汽车高管</i></p></blockquote></p><p> That is likely to spur opposition from the left, with some environmentalists already saying the president is caving in to the auto industry. The EPA’s proposal would produce just 75% of efficiency gains that would have come from the original Obama-era rules, according to an analysis from Consumer Reports Inc., a nonprofit membership organization known for its product reviews.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会激起左翼的反对，一些环保主义者已经表示，总统正在向汽车行业屈服。消费者报告公司（Consumer Reports Inc.</blockquote></p><p> “There’s no doubt [the EPA proposal] is a big improvement over where we were,” said David Friedman, Consumer Reports’ vice president of advocacy. “But it doesn’t go as far as our technology can go, and both where consumers and the climate need us to go.”</p><p><blockquote>“《消费者报告》负责宣传的副总裁大卫-弗里德曼（David Friedman）说：”毫无疑问，[环保局的提案]比我们之前的情况有了很大的进步。“但这并没有达到我们的技术所能达到的程度，也没有达到消费者和气候需要我们的程度。”</blockquote></p><p> And the regulations themselves aren’t set in stone, said Mary Nichols, a former chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board and a pioneer of fuel-economy regulation.</p><p><blockquote>加州空气资源委员会前主席、燃油经济性法规先驱玛丽-尼科尔斯（Mary Nichols）说，法规本身并不是一成不变的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden is taking action now to toughen fuel-efficiency standards in large part because former President Donald Trump drastically relaxed standards first imposed by former President Barack Obama.</p><p><blockquote>拜登现在采取行动加强燃油效率标准，很大程度上是因为前总统唐纳德·特朗普大幅放宽了前总统巴拉克·奥巴马首先实施的标准。</blockquote></p><p> “An administration that is determined to dismantle them can quickly shift course,” Ms. Nichols said.</p><p><blockquote>“尼科尔斯女士说：”决心拆除它们的政府可以迅速改变方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That makes Mr. Biden’s deal making with the auto makers important as an attempt to bulletproof his plan for the auto industry. The former GM executive Mr. Burns and other industry experts note that the major auto makers&nbsp;are already spending big&nbsp;to transform themselves, a major reason Mr. Biden’s plan might succeed.</p><p><blockquote>这使得拜登先生与汽车制造商达成协议变得非常重要，因为它试图为他的汽车行业计划提供防弹衣。通用汽车前高管伯恩斯先生和其他行业专家指出，各大汽车制造商已经在斥巨资进行自我转型，这也是拜登先生的计划可能成功的一个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> But it faces risks, too. Because it is voluntary, auto makers could still backtrack on their commitments, as&nbsp;they have done before. Congress has taken some of the tax credits and spending that the industry says it needs out of a pending bipartisan infrastructure package, leaving it for Democrats to consider for&nbsp;another spending billthat faces high hurdles to passage.</p><p><blockquote>但它也面临风险。因为这是自愿的，汽车制造商仍然可以像以前一样收回他们的承诺。国会已经从悬而未决的两党基础设施一揽子计划中删除了该行业所需的部分税收抵免和支出，让民主党人考虑另一项面临很高通过障碍的支出法案。</blockquote></p><p> There has been pushback from auto dealers fearful of the loss of lucrative maintenance work on traditional engines.</p><p><blockquote>汽车经销商对此表示反对，他们担心会失去传统发动机利润丰厚的维护工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unions&nbsp;are fearful of job losses&nbsp;if the transition moves too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>工会担心，如果过渡进行得太快，就会失业。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden voiced his support for union workers throughout an event at the White House on Thursday where he signed the executive order, with executives from&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a> (formerly Fiat Chrysler)—all union shops—looking on.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生周四在白宫举行的一次活动中表达了对工会工人的支持，他在活动中签署了行政命令，来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">斯特兰蒂斯公司</a>（原菲亚特克莱斯勒）——所有工会商店——都在观望。</blockquote></p><p> The White House left out foreign auto makers, including&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>&nbsp;or&nbsp;Hyundai Motor&nbsp;Co., whose U.S. workforces aren’t union-represented, as well as&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>,&nbsp;the company that has led the way in building a market for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>白宫排除了外国汽车制造商，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>或现代汽车公司（Hyundai Motor Co.），其美国员工没有工会代表，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>该公司在构建电动汽车市场方面处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The exclusion led to a rebuke from the American International Automobile Dealers Association, which noted that any policies that “prioritize some American auto workers above others…politicize what should be a shared mission,” making reaching the EV sales target more difficult.</p><p><blockquote>这一排除引起了美国国际汽车经销商协会的谴责，该协会指出，任何 “将一些美国汽车工人置于其他人之上.将本应是共同使命的政治化”，从而使实现电动汽车销售目标变得更加困难。</blockquote></p><p> Bob Lutz, a former senior executive at Ford, Chrysler, BMW and GM, where he was vice chairman, said Mr. Biden has now put himself at the center of what could be a messy transition process, one that will upend the status quo as auto manufacturing shifts to EV technology.</p><p><blockquote>鲍勃·卢茨 (Bob Lutz) 曾担任福特、克莱斯勒、宝马和通用汽车副董事长，他表示，拜登现在将自己置于可能混乱的过渡过程的中心，随着汽车制造业转向电动汽车技术，这一过程将颠覆现状。</blockquote></p><p> “There is going to be a massive dislocation,” especially for workers, Mr. Lutz said. “He has to navigate through it and enforce the compromise. If everybody is a little unhappy but willing to accept it, that’s what he’s shooting for.”</p><p><blockquote>“卢茨先生说：”将会出现巨大的混乱，尤其是对工人而言。“他必须渡过难关，强制执行妥协方案。如果每个人都有点不高兴，但都愿意接受，这就是他的目标。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden’s Electric-Car Ambitions Face Real-World Roadblocks<blockquote>拜登的电动汽车雄心面临现实世界的障碍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden’s Electric-Car Ambitions Face Real-World Roadblocks<blockquote>拜登的电动汽车雄心面临现实世界的障碍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-09 08:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Auto makers want congressional moves on charging stations and tax incentives; consumer support also is needed.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>汽车制造商希望国会在充电站和税收优惠方面采取行动；还需要消费者支持。</i></blockquote></p><p> WASHINGTON—President Biden wants to convert American motorists to electric cars as a linchpin of his plan to address&nbsp;climate change. Success heavily depends on factors outside his control.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿——拜登总统希望将美国驾车者改用电动汽车，作为他应对气候变化计划的关键。成功在很大程度上取决于他无法控制的因素。</blockquote></p><p> The executive order&nbsp;that Mr. Biden signed Thursday—calling on sales of electric, fuel-cell and plug-in hybrids to account for 50% of car and light truck sales by 2030—has no binding authority.</p><p><blockquote>拜登周四签署的行政命令——呼吁到 2030 年电动、燃料电池和插电式混合动力汽车的销量占汽车和轻型卡车销量的 50%——没有约束力。</blockquote></p><p> Auto makers say they could meet a target of somewhere&nbsp;between 40% and 50% of sales, but only if Congress spends billions of dollars to build out a network of EV charging stations and provides tax incentives to consumers, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商表示，他们可以实现销售额 40% 至 50% 的目标，但前提是国会花费数十亿美元建设电动汽车充电站网络，并为消费者提供税收优惠等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that,&nbsp;consumers must buy in. EVs currently account for about 3% of sales, reflecting in part generally higher upfront costs and limits on their range.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，消费者必须买账。电动汽车目前约占销量的 3%，部分反映了普遍较高的前期成本和续航里程限制。</blockquote></p><p> “Possibly the biggest hurdle ahead is consumer acceptance,” said Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at auto-data firm Edmunds. “What will it take for Americans to be willing to change their car ownership habits to go electric?”</p><p><blockquote>“汽车数据公司 Edmunds 的分析师杰西卡-考德威尔（Jessica Caldwell）说：”未来最大的障碍可能是消费者的接受度。“美国人怎样才能愿意改变他们的汽车拥有习惯，转而使用电动汽车？”</blockquote></p><p> Supporters of Mr. Biden’s plan acknowledge the magnitude of the task ahead but insist the goal is achievable.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生计划的支持者承认未来任务的艰巨性，但坚称目标是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> Tax incentives can help bridge the price difference between gasoline and electric vehicles at the dealership, these people say. Once purchased, electric vehicles&nbsp;offer continued savings&nbsp;in fuel and maintenance costs compared with gas vehicles, and often a better ride.</p><p><blockquote>这些人说，税收优惠可以帮助弥合经销商处汽油车和电动汽车之间的价格差异。一旦购买，与燃气汽车相比，电动汽车可以持续节省燃料和维护成本，并且通常提供更好的乘坐体验。</blockquote></p><p> A bigger national&nbsp;network of charging stations&nbsp;is also seen as key to alleviating fears of range anxiety, or running out of charge on the highway.</p><p><blockquote>更大的全国充电站网络也被视为缓解对里程焦虑或在高速公路上没电的担忧的关键。</blockquote></p><p> Providing those solutions will require&nbsp;balancing a long list of interests, from industry, political parties, unions, environmentalists, regulators and local governments, among others.</p><p><blockquote>提供这些解决方案需要平衡一长串利益，包括行业、政党、工会、环保主义者、监管机构和地方政府等。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s a Rubik’s cube of complexity,” said Larry Burns, a former GM executive and adviser to&nbsp;Alphabet&nbsp;Inc.’s&nbsp;self-driving affiliate Waymo. “And this scale is massive. So we have to have collective will to make this happen.”</p><p><blockquote>“通用汽车前高管、Alphabet自动驾驶子公司 Waymo 顾问 Larry Burns 说：”这是一个复杂的魔方。“这个规模是巨大的。因此，我们必须有集体意愿来实现这一目标”。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Burns and others say the industry is ready to make the transition, spurred by government and international competition.</p><p><blockquote>但伯恩斯和其他人表示，在政府和国际竞争的推动下，该行业已经准备好进行转型。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden has made transportation a central part of his&nbsp;agenda on climate change. The sector is the country’s top source of greenhouse-gas emissions, contributing more than a quarter of the country’s planet-warming gases. And China has become a world leader in batteries and electric vehicles, a long-term threat to U.S. manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生将交通作为他气候变化议程的核心部分。该行业是该国温室气体排放的最大来源，占该国全球变暖气体排放量的四分之一以上。中国已成为电池和电动汽车领域的世界领导者，这对美国制造业构成了长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden’s most immediate impact will be through using the authority he does have at the Environmental Protection Agency. It is proposing new rules that would require auto makers to raise average fleetwide fuel efficiency to the equivalent of 52 miles per gallon by the 2026 model year, using an industry measure that takes both fuel efficiency and emissions reductions into account.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生最直接的影响将是利用他在环境保护局的权力。它正在提出新规则，要求汽车制造商在 2026 车型年之前将整个车队的平均燃油效率提高到相当于每加仑 52 英里，采用一项同时考虑燃油效率和减排的行业措施。</blockquote></p><p> That compares with the current requirement of 43.3 mpg for that model year under rules set last year by the Trump administration.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据特朗普执政去年制定的规则，该车型年目前的要求为 43.3 英里/加仑。</blockquote></p><p> Under the agency’s proposal, which is now subject to a public-comment period, auto makers would be allowed some increased flexibility to comply by using credits they banked in past years when they surpassed their sales goals under the fuel-efficiency requirements.</p><p><blockquote>根据该机构的提案（目前正在接受公众意见征询期），汽车制造商将被允许使用过去几年在燃油效率要求下超额完成销售目标时获得的信贷，从而获得更大的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> <i>‘There is going to be a massive dislocation...[President Biden] has to navigate through it and enforce the compromise.’</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这将是一个巨大的混乱......[拜登总统]必须克服困难，执行妥协。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p style=\"text-align:right;\"><i>— Bob Lutz, former auto executive</i></p><p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align:right;\"><i>— 鲍勃·卢茨 (Bob Lutz)，前汽车高管</i></p></blockquote></p><p> That is likely to spur opposition from the left, with some environmentalists already saying the president is caving in to the auto industry. The EPA’s proposal would produce just 75% of efficiency gains that would have come from the original Obama-era rules, according to an analysis from Consumer Reports Inc., a nonprofit membership organization known for its product reviews.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会激起左翼的反对，一些环保主义者已经表示，总统正在向汽车行业屈服。消费者报告公司（Consumer Reports Inc.</blockquote></p><p> “There’s no doubt [the EPA proposal] is a big improvement over where we were,” said David Friedman, Consumer Reports’ vice president of advocacy. “But it doesn’t go as far as our technology can go, and both where consumers and the climate need us to go.”</p><p><blockquote>“《消费者报告》负责宣传的副总裁大卫-弗里德曼（David Friedman）说：”毫无疑问，[环保局的提案]比我们之前的情况有了很大的进步。“但这并没有达到我们的技术所能达到的程度，也没有达到消费者和气候需要我们的程度。”</blockquote></p><p> And the regulations themselves aren’t set in stone, said Mary Nichols, a former chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board and a pioneer of fuel-economy regulation.</p><p><blockquote>加州空气资源委员会前主席、燃油经济性法规先驱玛丽-尼科尔斯（Mary Nichols）说，法规本身并不是一成不变的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden is taking action now to toughen fuel-efficiency standards in large part because former President Donald Trump drastically relaxed standards first imposed by former President Barack Obama.</p><p><blockquote>拜登现在采取行动加强燃油效率标准，很大程度上是因为前总统唐纳德·特朗普大幅放宽了前总统巴拉克·奥巴马首先实施的标准。</blockquote></p><p> “An administration that is determined to dismantle them can quickly shift course,” Ms. Nichols said.</p><p><blockquote>“尼科尔斯女士说：”决心拆除它们的政府可以迅速改变方向。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That makes Mr. Biden’s deal making with the auto makers important as an attempt to bulletproof his plan for the auto industry. The former GM executive Mr. Burns and other industry experts note that the major auto makers&nbsp;are already spending big&nbsp;to transform themselves, a major reason Mr. Biden’s plan might succeed.</p><p><blockquote>这使得拜登先生与汽车制造商达成协议变得非常重要，因为它试图为他的汽车行业计划提供防弹衣。通用汽车前高管伯恩斯先生和其他行业专家指出，各大汽车制造商已经在斥巨资进行自我转型，这也是拜登先生的计划可能成功的一个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> But it faces risks, too. Because it is voluntary, auto makers could still backtrack on their commitments, as&nbsp;they have done before. Congress has taken some of the tax credits and spending that the industry says it needs out of a pending bipartisan infrastructure package, leaving it for Democrats to consider for&nbsp;another spending billthat faces high hurdles to passage.</p><p><blockquote>但它也面临风险。因为这是自愿的，汽车制造商仍然可以像以前一样收回他们的承诺。国会已经从悬而未决的两党基础设施一揽子计划中删除了该行业所需的部分税收抵免和支出，让民主党人考虑另一项面临很高通过障碍的支出法案。</blockquote></p><p> There has been pushback from auto dealers fearful of the loss of lucrative maintenance work on traditional engines.</p><p><blockquote>汽车经销商对此表示反对，他们担心会失去传统发动机利润丰厚的维护工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unions&nbsp;are fearful of job losses&nbsp;if the transition moves too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>工会担心，如果过渡进行得太快，就会失业。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Biden voiced his support for union workers throughout an event at the White House on Thursday where he signed the executive order, with executives from&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a> (formerly Fiat Chrysler)—all union shops—looking on.</p><p><blockquote>拜登先生周四在白宫举行的一次活动中表达了对工会工人的支持，他在活动中签署了行政命令，来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">斯特兰蒂斯公司</a>（原菲亚特克莱斯勒）——所有工会商店——都在观望。</blockquote></p><p> The White House left out foreign auto makers, including&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>&nbsp;or&nbsp;Hyundai Motor&nbsp;Co., whose U.S. workforces aren’t union-represented, as well as&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>,&nbsp;the company that has led the way in building a market for EVs.</p><p><blockquote>白宫排除了外国汽车制造商，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>或现代汽车公司（Hyundai Motor Co.），其美国员工没有工会代表，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>该公司在构建电动汽车市场方面处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The exclusion led to a rebuke from the American International Automobile Dealers Association, which noted that any policies that “prioritize some American auto workers above others…politicize what should be a shared mission,” making reaching the EV sales target more difficult.</p><p><blockquote>这一排除引起了美国国际汽车经销商协会的谴责，该协会指出，任何 “将一些美国汽车工人置于其他人之上.将本应是共同使命的政治化”，从而使实现电动汽车销售目标变得更加困难。</blockquote></p><p> Bob Lutz, a former senior executive at Ford, Chrysler, BMW and GM, where he was vice chairman, said Mr. Biden has now put himself at the center of what could be a messy transition process, one that will upend the status quo as auto manufacturing shifts to EV technology.</p><p><blockquote>鲍勃·卢茨 (Bob Lutz) 曾担任福特、克莱斯勒、宝马和通用汽车副董事长，他表示，拜登现在将自己置于可能混乱的过渡过程的中心，随着汽车制造业转向电动汽车技术，这一过程将颠覆现状。</blockquote></p><p> “There is going to be a massive dislocation,” especially for workers, Mr. Lutz said. “He has to navigate through it and enforce the compromise. If everybody is a little unhappy but willing to accept it, that’s what he’s shooting for.”</p><p><blockquote>“卢茨先生说：”将会出现巨大的混乱，尤其是对工人而言。“他必须渡过难关，强制执行妥协方案。如果每个人都有点不高兴，但都愿意接受，这就是他的目标。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-electric-car-ambitions-face-real-world-roadblocks-11628427780?mod=hp_lead_pos11\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","STLA":"Stellantis NV","TM":"丰田汽车","F":"福特汽车","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-electric-car-ambitions-face-real-world-roadblocks-11628427780?mod=hp_lead_pos11","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101851851","content_text":"Auto makers want congressional moves on charging stations and tax incentives; consumer support also is needed.\nWASHINGTON—President Biden wants to convert American motorists to electric cars as a linchpin of his plan to address climate change. Success heavily depends on factors outside his control.\nThe executive order that Mr. Biden signed Thursday—calling on sales of electric, fuel-cell and plug-in hybrids to account for 50% of car and light truck sales by 2030—has no binding authority.\nAuto makers say they could meet a target of somewhere between 40% and 50% of sales, but only if Congress spends billions of dollars to build out a network of EV charging stations and provides tax incentives to consumers, among other measures.\nBeyond that, consumers must buy in. EVs currently account for about 3% of sales, reflecting in part generally higher upfront costs and limits on their range.\n“Possibly the biggest hurdle ahead is consumer acceptance,” said Jessica Caldwell, an analyst at auto-data firm Edmunds. “What will it take for Americans to be willing to change their car ownership habits to go electric?”\nSupporters of Mr. Biden’s plan acknowledge the magnitude of the task ahead but insist the goal is achievable.\nTax incentives can help bridge the price difference between gasoline and electric vehicles at the dealership, these people say. Once purchased, electric vehicles offer continued savings in fuel and maintenance costs compared with gas vehicles, and often a better ride.\nA bigger national network of charging stations is also seen as key to alleviating fears of range anxiety, or running out of charge on the highway.\nProviding those solutions will require balancing a long list of interests, from industry, political parties, unions, environmentalists, regulators and local governments, among others.\n“That’s a Rubik’s cube of complexity,” said Larry Burns, a former GM executive and adviser to Alphabet Inc.’s self-driving affiliate Waymo. “And this scale is massive. So we have to have collective will to make this happen.”\nBut Mr. Burns and others say the industry is ready to make the transition, spurred by government and international competition.\nMr. Biden has made transportation a central part of his agenda on climate change. The sector is the country’s top source of greenhouse-gas emissions, contributing more than a quarter of the country’s planet-warming gases. And China has become a world leader in batteries and electric vehicles, a long-term threat to U.S. manufacturing.\nMr. Biden’s most immediate impact will be through using the authority he does have at the Environmental Protection Agency. It is proposing new rules that would require auto makers to raise average fleetwide fuel efficiency to the equivalent of 52 miles per gallon by the 2026 model year, using an industry measure that takes both fuel efficiency and emissions reductions into account.\nThat compares with the current requirement of 43.3 mpg for that model year under rules set last year by the Trump administration.\nUnder the agency’s proposal, which is now subject to a public-comment period, auto makers would be allowed some increased flexibility to comply by using credits they banked in past years when they surpassed their sales goals under the fuel-efficiency requirements.\n‘There is going to be a massive dislocation...[President Biden] has to navigate through it and enforce the compromise.’\n— Bob Lutz, former auto executive\nThat is likely to spur opposition from the left, with some environmentalists already saying the president is caving in to the auto industry. The EPA’s proposal would produce just 75% of efficiency gains that would have come from the original Obama-era rules, according to an analysis from Consumer Reports Inc., a nonprofit membership organization known for its product reviews.\n“There’s no doubt [the EPA proposal] is a big improvement over where we were,” said David Friedman, Consumer Reports’ vice president of advocacy. “But it doesn’t go as far as our technology can go, and both where consumers and the climate need us to go.”\nAnd the regulations themselves aren’t set in stone, said Mary Nichols, a former chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board and a pioneer of fuel-economy regulation.\nMr. Biden is taking action now to toughen fuel-efficiency standards in large part because former President Donald Trump drastically relaxed standards first imposed by former President Barack Obama.\n“An administration that is determined to dismantle them can quickly shift course,” Ms. Nichols said.\nThat makes Mr. Biden’s deal making with the auto makers important as an attempt to bulletproof his plan for the auto industry. The former GM executive Mr. Burns and other industry experts note that the major auto makers are already spending big to transform themselves, a major reason Mr. Biden’s plan might succeed.\nBut it faces risks, too. Because it is voluntary, auto makers could still backtrack on their commitments, as they have done before. Congress has taken some of the tax credits and spending that the industry says it needs out of a pending bipartisan infrastructure package, leaving it for Democrats to consider for another spending billthat faces high hurdles to passage.\nThere has been pushback from auto dealers fearful of the loss of lucrative maintenance work on traditional engines.\nUnions are fearful of job losses if the transition moves too quickly.\nMr. Biden voiced his support for union workers throughout an event at the White House on Thursday where he signed the executive order, with executives from Ford, General Motors and Stellantis NV (formerly Fiat Chrysler)—all union shops—looking on.\nThe White House left out foreign auto makers, including Toyota or Hyundai Motor Co., whose U.S. workforces aren’t union-represented, as well as Tesla Motors, the company that has led the way in building a market for EVs.\nThe exclusion led to a rebuke from the American International Automobile Dealers Association, which noted that any policies that “prioritize some American auto workers above others…politicize what should be a shared mission,” making reaching the EV sales target more difficult.\nBob Lutz, a former senior executive at Ford, Chrysler, BMW and GM, where he was vice chairman, said Mr. Biden has now put himself at the center of what could be a messy transition process, one that will upend the status quo as auto manufacturing shifts to EV technology.\n“There is going to be a massive dislocation,” especially for workers, Mr. Lutz said. “He has to navigate through it and enforce the compromise. If everybody is a little unhappy but willing to accept it, that’s what he’s shooting for.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"TM":0.9,"F":0.9,"STLA":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}